GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew
Krang, huh. I can deal with this. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Foot Clan? The Foot Clan's ownin' you suckas right now! --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
Amaterasu........................52.59% 41994 Shadow the Hedgehog.....47.41% 37852 TOTAL VOTES................................79846 Weighted Companion Cube...78.1% 38427 Sandal....................................21.9% 10775 TOTAL VOTES...................................49202 Crew Predictions - 5/7 What Happened: Ammy beats Shadow in a close match and one joke beats down another Why it Happened: For Ammy/Shadow...yeah people don't like Shadow much these days. As for Sandal...no one cares. What will Happen: Sonic team may be in trouble if Shadow is any indication. Cube is also looking really good for Round 3. Crew Prediction Challenge - One point for everyone Moltar - 6 Lopen - 5 Kleenex - 5 Tran - 5 Ngamer - 5 Red Sox - 5 Guest - 4 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Lopen had the highest Cube pick Guest - 2 (Bio: 1, CM: 1) Ngamer - 1 Kleenex - 1 Moltar - 1 Lopen - 1 Tran - 0 Red Sox - 0 --- Moltar Status: Bracket: The Boss > Drake (6/7) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
One point for everyone wut --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Oh, it was both matches. Don't mind me! --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
No one picked Shadow but everyone picked Cube, sir! --- Moltar Status: Bracket: The Boss > Drake (6/7) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
I believe you mean no one picked Ammy, sir! --- "The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." - George Bernard Shaw |
Aw, I don't get an accuracy point for having the lowest Shadow prediction? Not to worry, victory shall soon come. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
What
the- those assignments are terrible! Any villains list where the guy
who'd take Crono over Mario isn't Bebop and the guy who'd take Snake
over Link isn't Rocksteady does NOT get my stamp of approval. But why are we going in that direction anyways? We're the heroes of this Contest, by golly! We ought to be concerned with The TMNT Crew Master Moltar as Master Splinter * The Crew's wise old sensei and adoptive father, Moltar is a supremely talented analysis who learned the ways of predictsu from the man who consistently owned him, Ultima Terializer. These days he prefers to mostly stay underground and let the younger members of the Crew do the dirty work, but anyone who disrespects him by thinking he's "well past his prime" is in for a rude awakening. tranny as Leonardo * The courageous Crew leader and a devoted student of math 'n stats, tranny is the most experienced of the four and the most skilled at writeups. When the going gets tough, everyone knows that tranny is the one Crewmember who can always be counted on to submit a well-reasoned prediction on time. Ngamer as Donatello * The brilliant x-stats scientist, Guru inventor, site engineer, and technological genius, "Ng" is perhaps the least aggressive Crewmate, preferring to take a conservative approach to predictions and use his inventive website to help solve difficult matchup problems. Kleenex as Raphael * The team's bad boy, Kleenex has an aggressive nature and seldom hesitates to throw the first verbal jab. He is an intense analysis; his writeups can be alternately fierce and sarcastic, and they often times delivers deadpan humor. Still, he is intensely loyal to his fellow Crewmates and their sensei. Lopen as Michelangelo * Easy-going and free-spirited, "Longshot Lopen" provides much of the comic relief for the series (of topics). While he loves to relax with short writeups on dull matches, this Crewmate also has an adventurous and creative side, leading to nearly all of the most daring upset choices (and most hilarious writeups!) in Crew history. red sox as Casey Jones * A newcomer to the group, this longtime Contest vigilante has become one of the core Crewmember's closest allies. Casey first met up with the Crew after having a fight with Kleenex in the stats topic. red sox fights against past Contest results with an assortment of intellectual tools (SFF, LFF, Chrono Trigger bias, nostalgia, not having played any video game released since 1998, etc.), never resting until he has somehow battered, beaten, and twisted the stats into supporting his conclusion. The Guests as April O'Neal * Unpleasant and generally annoying, no one notices The Guests until they're not around (and even then no one much minds their absence). Leon as Shredder * A villainous predictsu master called Leon Hartfour. In every incarnation of the Crew season, he has been the archenemy of Moltar and the Crewmates. Leon prefers to use biting sarcasm and hindsight to insult the Crew's choice well after a match has been decided instead of submitting his own writeups ahead of time. The Crew will not rest until he has been dethroned from his #1 position and exposed for the fraud he is. --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Whoa. --- wheresoever you go, go with all your heart |
Guests beating the Crew down in predicting percentages. Let's keep it up, gang. --- It may be insulting, but it's true! Now this is entertainment! |
Guests are in last in prediction accuracy? shock and awe! --- xyzzy |
Don't look at me I got my pick right --- It may be insulting, but it's true! Now this is entertainment! |
Hey
if i'd been the Guest for Ammy/Shadow we'd be tied with everyone 'cept
Moltar, and we'd be even further ahead in percentage accuracy! --- "The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." - George Bernard Shaw |
gotta back it up, guests! bring it! --- xyzzy |
Gladly! Let's do this! --- "Flash runs alongside balefire watching marshmallows stop existing" - War |
Leon
prefers to use biting sarcasm and hindsight to insult the Crew's choice
well after a match has been decided instead of submitting his own
writeups ahead of time. And don't forget my hatred toward Master Splintar (There isn't an easy way to make a cross between Splinter and Moltar without it looking like I misspelled the word!) for banishing me from the Crew and forcing me to establish my own force: The Guest Clan! The Guests as April O'Neal * Unpleasant and generally annoying, no one notices The Guests until they're not around (and even then no one much minds their absence). And what is this? April O'Neill was my childhood cartoon crush! --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
And what is this? April O'Neill was my childhood cartoon crush! this explains so much. --- xyzzy |
I'm not even sure what that's supposed to mean! --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
TMNT FTW. Not that I'm much of a fan nowadays. |
You guys are weird. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Ha, those were great, NGamer. You got me perfectly! --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
Shut your mouth, Raphael! You got punked by the Guest Clan! --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
Oddly I knew who almost all those picks would be when I saw Splinter. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Chaos Division: Round 1 - Match 9 – (1) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. (16) Lightning Moltar’s Analysis Sonic Alright Sonic, you may have sucked the past two years, but we can blame that on the format. You better not mess things up here. Lightning So yeah that American copy of FFXIII sure is fun who bought it This match could’ve been interesting if it were held on the day of FFXIII’s release. However, it is not. Therefore, Sonic should have this easily. Don’t expect Lightning to give up and die so easily though. She’s probably going to look respectable here just because of the FF name. Moltar’s Bracket: Sonic > Lightning Moltar’s Prediction: Sonic: 70% - Lightning: 30% Lopen’s Analysis Sega Mascot vs FF Character Not much to see here. FF Character does overly well cause she stomps in Japan, and because of HYPE. I'm rooting for FF Character cause it'd be hilarious for her to win, but Sega Mascot is just too big and bad. If Sega Mascot had gone up against say Nathan Drake, we could've had a humorous result. As is, I expect a respectable performance, but nothing more. Lopen's Prediction: Sega Mascot with 71.99% Transience’s Analysis Like the Cube match, this is a tough one from a percentage standpoint. Sonic wins this, we all know that. It would take an extraordinary amount of hate for Sonic to lose to a character that doesn't exist yet. Sonic is not at that level. After the Shadow match, though, you have to believe that there's *some* antivoting going on. Shadow gets the worst of it, but Sonic doesn't get away unscathed. If Sonic can't double Lightning, something is dreadfully wrong and he's probably getting his ass handed to him by Ganondorf. If Sonic gets above 80% (and honestly, he *should* -- I mean, the character does not exist yet), then Sonic's in okay shape. I think he'll settle somewhere in the middle. Lightning, beat Sonic? maybe if you're dumb and stupid or kleenextissue transience's prediction: Sonic with 75.91% Ngamer’s Analysis Fantastical magic arrives soon! Ngamer Says: Sonic - 66.78% Kleenex’s Analysis Well, I guess I wasn't quite on target with the whole Shadow prediction. Sonic will be different, though! I pretty much said my piece about what I think about Sonic this contest in my Shadow writeup, so instead we'll focus on LIGHTNING. Lightning was kinda my pet project this year, I was probably the first person to plant the idea in peoples' heads to nominate her, even though it wasn't a full out rally. And it'll be interesting to see how she does despite not having a US release for another 2 months. Though I suppose it'll be hard to say if whatever the result turns out to be is due to Lightning's strength or Sonic's weakness. Regardless of how she does this year, I'm more looking forward to the next character battle when her game is actually out. If there's ever been a new character that might finally be able to reach the level of near-elite/elites, this is it. She's got a good character design and the combined personalities of some of the strongest characters we've seen. I don't think I've heard a single bad thing about her from any of the pepole who have played the Japanese version of FF13. So if FF13 sells well here, look out Link !! Bracket: Sonic the Hedgehog Favorites: Lightning Prediction: Sonic the Hedgehog with 77.77% |
Red Sox’s Analysis Tonight we have the weakest member of the Noble Nine going up against the heroine of Final Fantasy XIII……which has yet to come out in North America or Europe. Normally, you’d think this would be a crushing win for Sonic, but Sonic characters have looked absolutely awful the past couple of years. In 2008, Sonic lost to Auron and Kirby, in matches that weren’t even close, while Shadow lost to Zidane and Knuckles lost easily to Zelda despite Mario being in the poll. Just yesterday, Shadow lost to Amaterasu in a match that evidently no one on this Crew got right (though I gave it a 45% chance of happening! I wasn’t wrong by miles this time!) Meanwhile, Square is hyping FFXIII as the biggest FF game since VII, and Lightning was designed as a female version of Cloud, the 2nd strongest character on the site. Once the game comes out, she has potential to be a near-elite and perhaps vie with Sonic, but, the game has not come out in America yet, and Sonic is still a Noble Niner, weakened though he be. Going through a constant Auron, Sonic 2008 is worth about 41% on Sonic 2006, and Lightning finished close to Axel in the vote-in polls, who got 30% on Megaman in 2006. Of course the vote-in polls are highly unreliable, but there’s no real better way to gauge Lightning’s strength, so I’ll use them here to predict her to get mid-30s on Sonic. She does have the benefit of a night poll, and if you believe it, TJF in the picture. Prediction: Sonic the Hedgehog with 64% Upset Chances: 1% Upper Bound: Sonic with 70% Lower Bound: Sonic with 58% Guest’s Analysis - Kotetsu534 Hey folks, I'm here to give a run down on Sonic vs. Lightning. Firstly, obviously, the result isn't in doubt. Sonic is going through; no matter how far he's fallen he ain't losing to a character from a game yet to be released in English. The real attraction of this match is seeing what Sonic is capable of in a 1v1 setting, but what he can reasonably do is very dependent on who's sitting opposite him. Lightning has only been in one poll (the vote-in), in which she put up 9.41%, losing to such titans as Missingno, The Boss and Axel. As such there's little that can be determined apart from "she's weak". Some may argue that FF franchise voting will give her a significant floor, but there's been enough horrid performances from unloved FF characters to suggest she's perfectly capable of dropping like a rock. So we need to look at Sonic. He's a noble niner, but not exactly respected today. In round one of 08 he put up 36% on Sandbad/Magus/Shepard, which looks particularly unimpressive now that we know how far Magus has fallen from his glory days. Next round he was humbled with little excuse by Auron, and in the quarter-finals he lost limply to Kirby. He has a lot to prove, and it seems unlikely he can do it here; stronger members of the noble nine have failed to demolish apparently weak opposition. Link failed to break 80% on Thrall, and Mega Man X failed to double Price. Given these results, of all the characters one would bet on to score a roaring blowout, it wouldn't be Sonic during the night. So with that said, what do I conclude? Sonic will win safely, but not unduly impress. Prediction: Sonic: 71.04% Lightning: 28.96% Crew Consensus: Sonic won’t let his Team down tonight. |
Man, if Sonic fails to double Lightning, forget Ganondorf to beat him! I'm jumping on the Knuckles > Sonic bandwagon! --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
Man, I've been pimping Lightning more than all of you combined and somehow I have the highest Sonic prediction. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Lightning wins. --- http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/3230/takerface.gif |
Knuckles > Magus > Sonic The 2003 stats are INFALLIBLE. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
Knuckles > Magus > Sonic The 2003 stats are INFALLIBLE. You don't need x-stats Knuckles > Kefka > Pac-Man > Ocelot > Jill > Kirby > Sonic --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls Character Battle VIII - 3/6 - Today's Winners: WCC and The Boss |
Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup Aww, Drake couldn't quite get it done. Despite costing me quite a few points though, I find I can't be too mad at him- he put up a very good fight, won updates throughout the day, and heck, this might still be the biggest single season turnaround for a character despite the loss. It'll look especially decent after The Boss uses that diehard MGS fanbase to go out and throttle WCC, whoo! Who's with me guys? ...guys? Well that was a really cool start to the Contest, with 4 debatable matches in the course of just 4 days (in fact I'm going to boldly proclaim these to have been the most entertaining first four days of a Contest EVER! wait, is that bold?). But now it's time to cool things off a bit with a section where for the most part our winners shouldn't be in doubt, starting with a no-doubter of a win by a Noble Niner. Sonic is going to survive and advance, but the question is, will he leave R1 with his reputation still intact? On paper this seems like an ideal situation for him, considering how less than 5% of the site has played the game his opponent comes from. In the real world though, I think the Blue Blur has got some hurdles to overcome. This isn't just any unreleased game, it's the most anticipated game of the year and arguably the most hyped on this site since Brawl. I'd have to imagine a pretty good chunk of our userbase has looked at screenshots or watched some trailers, either of which probably featured Lightning. (And if you don't think trailers can affect public perception, TP and Brawl would like a word with you!) Secondly, "Lightning" is just an awesome name for a character, and thirdly she looks fantastic in that match pic. Yowza, I see what they meant about a female Cloud! Most importantly though, the only reason I had to back off the Ammy upset was out of fear of that Sonic day vote. Well, no need to fear it anymore! I'll predict it right now- Sonic's percentage gets hammered during the dead hours in this one. Combine those things with antivotes, and I've got to believe that Lightning has a solid opportunity to avoid the doubling. Now normally I'd get scared by everyone staying in the low 70s for Sonic and move up a couple percent myself, but I've decided to stick to my "no one really knows what they're doing" guns at least once. Let's see how it pans out for me. Ngamer Says: Sonic - 66.78% --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
I do not hold this one against you guys wtf Sonic --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Man, I hope Sonic tears through the rest of his division with no problem. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Now
normally I'd get scared by everyone staying in the low 70s for Sonic
and move up a couple percent myself, but I've decided to stick to my
"no one really knows what they're doing" guns at least once. Let's see
how it pans out for me. Well there ya go. --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Nathan Drake.......47.63% 33295 The Boss.............52.37% 36615 TOTAL VOTES...................69910 Crew Predictions - 5/8 What Happened: The Boss pulls off the "upset" and beats the overseeded Drake Why it Happened: Well, Uncharted 2 did boost Nathan...however it just wasn't enough to beat high-fodder like The Boss. What will Happen: She's probably finished next round, but who knows. Crew Prediction Challenge - One point for Lopen and I Moltar - 7 Lopen - 6 Kleenex - 5 Tran - 5 Ngamer - 5 Red Sox - 5 Guest - 4 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Easy point for me! Moltar - 2 Guest - 2 (Bio: 1, CM: 1) Ngamer - 1 Kleenex - 1 Lopen - 1 Tran - 0 Red Sox - 0 --- Moltar Status: Bracket: The Boss > Drake (6/7) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Eh Sonic probably goes up. But wow that's pretty sad. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
From: KamikazePotato | #333 I do! Didn't anyone see Shadow's epic fail? Should've let me be the guest, had Sonic at 63% in Oracle =P. --- ~AK~ // Merc |
Why can't we all just assume this is Lightning being strong rather than Sonic failing :( --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Kleenex
and Tran (possibly me) are really the only ones far enough that it's
necessary to hold it against them. The rest of us are off by less than
5%. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
From: Lopen | #337 Uhhhh you were saying --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
Ermmm... well maybe not if Sonic keeps dropping. Hail Lightning. Lightning for 2k11 champion. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
From: KleenexTissue50 | #339 cuz thats not as funny --- http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism |
Haha, "no one really knows what they're doing" guns a'blazin! But I lowballed Sonic big time, laid out his path to an underperformance perfectly, and even I'm shocked at how this one has started out. Gosh, I called people "crazy" for thinking Ganon could beat Sonic in a sprite match, but now... could even Pig Ganon hold him back? --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
ahahahaha Sonic sucks what's Balthier projected to get on Sonic? Lightning might be stronger than him already and her game isn't even out! --- xyzzy |
From: transience | #345 I'd almost guarantee she is. According to my stats from last year, Sonic gets 72.17% on Balthier. According to char's, he gets 71.28%. --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
Chaos Division: Round 1 - Match 10 – (8) Cecil Harvey vs. (9) Knuckles the Echidna Moltar’s Analysis Cecil Last year, Cecil was stuck with ZackFAQs right off the bat. Can he get farther this time around? Knuckles Knuckles back to facing Square characters in Round 1, just like the good old days. This should be an easy one to call. Cecil has done nothing to show that he is on Knuckles level. In his last 1v1 appearance, Knuckles beat Magus and had a great showing against Squall. Even though that was 5 years ago, Knuckles should still be strong enough now. Knuckles with 60%...minus 5% for general suckiness from Sonic Team (what the hell sonic) Moltar’s Bracket: Knuckles > Cecil Moltar’s Prediction: Cecil: 45% - Knuckles: 55% Lopen’s Analysis Sega Mascot vs FF Character Not much to see here. Like, at all. Not even performance-wise. I suppose it's possible that FF Character was SFFed to a significant degree by Zack, but personally I don't buy that. However, there's a Dissidia boost waiting in the wings and he didn't do that bad against Kirby that one time with a dreadful picture, and Sega Mascot's franchise has looked pretty bad lately. I will, once again, be rooting for FF Character, but I don't think Dissidia can make up for his ultimate fodder status. But this is the first time we've seen a Dissidia boost candidate this contest so it'll be interesting to see if it's 4REAL or nothing. (Has the stats topic even been hyping Dissidia? I haven't actually noticed much either way) Lopen's prediction: Sega Mascot with 64.14% Transience’s Analysis I wish I could write this after seeing how Sonic does, but alas, I have to write it the night before. Cecil is pretty low-tier on the Final Fantasy scale, but he's come a long way since that Kirby match in 2005. He's had a well-received remake and Dissidia, which could possibly push him up to the fodder line. Given that Shadow looks to be around the fodder line these days, it's not completely inconceivable that Knuckles could struggle here. There is no way in hell that I would bet on it happening though. Knuckles doesn't have the same stigma that Shadow carries: if anything, he's more of a throwback to the old Sonic days instead of the Shadow the Hedgehog days that Shadow himself reminds us of every match. Knuckles should be pretty safe here. He's fallen since his excellent upset in 2005, but he hasn't fallen THAT far. people like Knuckles this won't be Shadow part 2 Sonic sits and waits transience's prediction: Knuckles with 59.31% Kleenex’s Analysis Ugh, more Sonic characters. Cecil sucks and Knuckles always makes it to round 2. Not to mention this is a day match, so Cecil get wrecked even harder. Not really sure how the percentages go on this, but I'd be surprised if Knuckles get even close to dropping this match. I'm be happy for sure, because I'm a big Cecil fan, but shocked nevertheless. Awesome writeup, I know. Bracket: Knuckles the Echidna Favorites: Cecil Harvey Prediction: Knuckles the Echidna with 61.03% Red Sox’s Analysis We have another Sonic character in the day battle today. Sonic followed up a string of bad performances by Sonic Team by doing poorly against Lightning today, and so things look bad for Knuckles. Of course his competition is very weak, and Knux shouldn’t really have to worry about actually losing, but he may wind up with an embarrassingly low percentage. Since FFIVDS, FFIV characters have done remarkably well, and Cecil/Kefka may be a debatable match nowadays- Rydia or Kain would probably be favored over Kefka as the strongest Old Square character outside of Chrono Trigger. |
Knuckles
beat Kefka 57/43 back in 2004. Since then both characters have fallen a
long way, and I figure the match results now would probably not be too
far off from what they were then. If Cecil can give Kefka a run for his
money now, then it stands to reason that he could put up a similar
number against Knuckles. It’s true that he only got 25% on Kirby back
in 2005, but Kirby was stronger than Knuckles of that year, who was in
turn much stronger than Knuckles of today, and Cecil is likely much
stronger than he was then. Cecil got 26% against Zack last year, but he
may have been SFF'd, and Zack is far stronger than Knuckles these days.
The fact that this is a day match should help the old “King of the Day
Vote” out somewhat, even though he is no longer number 1 at the day
vote, having been displaced by Master Chief and Sora years ago. Prediction: Knuckles with 58% Upset Chances: 3% Upper Bound: Knuckles with 62% Lower Bound: Knuckles with 54% Guest’s Analysis - War Before Sonic/Lightning: http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/7644/warwriteup.jpg After Sonic/Lightning: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA Cecil with 50.01% Crew Consensus: Knuckles is the near-unanimous pick…oh Guest… |
Darn it Guest, you're ruining the Guest Clan's credibility! Shredder will not stand for this! --- "Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW |
Don't worry Leon, the Crew is almost unanimous for Knuckles, so he must lose. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
