GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2905 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3256 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3282 --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
From: transience | Posted: 1/18/2010 2:26:10 PM | #198 I would have argued she was the favorite. I mean this was far from a lock or anything (I think my Oracle is something like Amy with 53%), but sometimes you have to use the eye test. Shadow has looked like complete crap for years and was begging for a loss like this. Amy always looks respectable, fourway or not. Alucard/Magus is another great example of this. Without knowing any stats and just looking at their polls since 2005, who's looked better? Plus it was a day match, where Magus always collapses. Alucard at least has a pulse during the day now and then. I'm positive my writeup here would have been Amaterasu with 53%, give or take. --- "MMOs are not good. Someone can always mess with how you're playing the game." -The Real Truth living up to his name |
From: transience | #198 why are you always so pessimistic? A low midcarder =/= total crap --- http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism |
Amaterasu
barely beat Ada Wong and did a nice job not getting killed by Crono.
that's nice based on our low expectations, but not exactly something
above the fodder line. Shadow had at least equaled Tidus at one point
in time. --- xyzzy |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3256 dammit gamefaqs --- wheresoever you go, go with all your heart |
I'd
argue this some more, but I have to get going. I think this is more
Shadow officially bombing than Amaterasu being strong - we'll see when
she goes against Luigi. --- xyzzy |
From: transience | Posted: 1/18/2010 2:31:09 PM | #204 That's a terrible argument, since Tidus has had one good match in 8 years -- a loss to Ganondorf in 2003. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´ http://www.boblauer.com/guidette.gif |
It's alright, boys; I'm aboard the sinking ship with you this time! --- Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
Well, I guess I look kinda silly now don't I. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
The thing is Tidus doesn't need
to be a near elite for Shadow's fight against him to be more impressive
than anything Shadow's done. Tidus has disappointed, but no one
should've ever thought he was even close to Amaterasu level. Have to say I'm pretty surprised about this one. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Of
course, I realize that's a six year old match but yeah, people ragging
Tidus failing as being support for this are pretty silly. I'll respect
arguments of Shadow looking like balls in four ways, but not that. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Guys, the argument for Amaterasu is simple. Look at the similarity of their opponents in these two matches: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3282&num=4 http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2898&num=4 Who did better? Ammy did. It was based on those two matches that i made my Oracle pick of Amaterasu with 52.43%. She's currently at 52.35%. Granted, there's still 4 hours left in the poll, but so far 4-way stats are looking pretty damn accurate to me. --- "The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." - George Bernard Shaw |
From: Chaotic Mind | #212 4ways can be off a lot, but they can also be right on target sometimes. The problem is, we don't know which it'll be. --- http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism |
From: MyWorldIsCrono | #213 The times when they're off a lot are probably due to sff. I definitely haven't looked at every match ever, or even the majority of matches, so there could certainly be plenty that are off for no apparent reason though. --- "Flash runs alongside balefire watching marshmallows stop existing" - War |
4way stats might as well be a coin flip. Too unreliable. This match is also too close for anyone to act sure one way or the other. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´ Truly, if there is a god of destiny, he is fond of plot twists. |
Oh
i definitely wasn't sure, and am still not totally. That's why i said
granted, there's still 4 hours left in the poll. Shadow even made a
couple cuts not that long ago, but it looks like Ammy's back to
gaining, for now. --- "Flash runs alongside balefire watching marshmallows stop existing" - War |
That's a terrible argument, since Tidus has had one good match in 8 years -- a loss to Ganondorf in 2003. Two good matches. He beat Shadow! And Ammy's matches have given us every indication that she's at least high fodder/low midcard, which isn't total crap. Shadow lost a match to Zidane that he had no business losing. At least Ammy was able to beat a Final Fantasy character, even if it was Balthier. I wouldn't expect Zidane/Balthier to be a blowout either. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
You
know x-stats can be different over time? In 4ways, the stats wildly
fluctuate every round. All you can really predict through them are
voting trends during different times of the day and overall character
trends; aka, the eye test. Some characters just look or feel right.
Shadow was one of those characters that just looked bad. --- MUSIC CAN BE OBJECTIVELY DEFINED AND ITS QUALITY EMPIRICALLY MEASURED BY THE INEQUALITY [WHAT I LIKE > WHAT YOU LIKE]. -Jaraqua Lefty Jones |
To be fair I'd kinda forgotten Shadow lost decisively to Zidane. I might've changed my pick if I remembered that loss. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I
agree. By 4-way stats i don't even mean x-stats, i don't use them. I
just look at past matches for the entrants and do an "eye test" to
determine which one i think looked better. In this case i was fortunate
that the two had such similar opponents in previous matches, but even
looking at their other recent matches Ammy still looked slightly better
to me. I think she's looked like a low-midcard for awhile now, which
means Luigi should beat her just as bad as, probably worse than, Meta
Knight. Something between 70-30 and 75-25 i'm thinking. --- "Flash runs alongside balefire watching marshmallows stop existing" - War |
Luigi's
not strong enough to triple someone who's not fodder. Heck, Crono
couldn't even double her last year (4-ways, I know, but the difference
doesn't result in a doubling instead of a tripling). I'd be surprised
if Weegi broke 70% there. I'd sooner expect Ammy to break 40%. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
I'd
have to check Meta Knight's past matches to be more sure, but the
impression i have right now is that he's looked a little more
impressive than Ammy to me. Therefore i'd expect her to do worse
against Luigi. A tripling probably is too much though, you're right
about that. Somewhere between 67-70% for Luigi then. --- "Flash runs alongside balefire watching marshmallows stop existing" - War |
Meta Knight pretty clearly got SFF'd though. We can't take that match at face value. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
Hey, you know what? Thrall did well, implying Arthas should have some strength. Alucard did very well. Now Amaterasu is impressing. What do all of these have in common? That's right, they were behind Crono in 2008. Underrated Crono 2008 aw yeah. *Runs* --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
Ah
that's true, i hadn't taken sff into account yet when thinking about
this. Thanks for reminding me of that. Hmm... i dunno, my mind still
sees Luigi in the 60's when picturing him vs. Ammy. I might just put
him around 65% again, maybe a little lower. I'll hafta think about this
some more when Round 2 predictions open up. --- "Flash runs alongside balefire watching marshmallows stop existing" - War |
Ammy
is surprisingly resilient. I've got a good amount of Luigi respect, and
she could crack 40% on him and it wouldn't be very surprising at all. --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Hey, you know what? Thrall did well, implying Arthas should have some strength. Alucard did very well. Now Amaterasu is impressing. What do all of these have in common? That's right, they were behind Crono in 2008. Underrated Crono 2008 aw yeah. *Runs* Yesssssssss --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Oh Moltar, always forgetting to put your e-mail address in the topic.... Just sent my analysis to the e-mail you used in previous contests, I assume it hasn't changed, if not let me know and I can resend. If you can confirm you got it, that'd be great. BTW, the line in the asterisks following my prediction belongs with my analysis, don't leave that out! --- Vote NATHAN DRAKE into (at least) the third round!!! Crash Bandicoot, too? <_< |
Pssh screw logic, I picked Shadow out of fanboyism today! And I got your analysis Dp --- Moltar Status: Bracket: Luigi > MK (4/4) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
I picked Shadow out of fanboyism today! Here's your problem. You're a Shadow fanboy. --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
I see no problem there --- Moltar Status: Bracket: Luigi > MK (4/4) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Hyrule Division: Round 1 - Match 7 – (7) Weighted Companion Cube vs. (10) Sandal Moltar’s Analysis Cube Longest lasting joke of 2008 Sandal Nothing to say here Battle of the inanimate objects! Dragon Age looked good in the GotY poll, but not good enough to make me want to take a “joke” character from it over WCC. The performance of Captain Price a few days ago is kind of making me hesitant to say Cube will dominate, but this should still be a fairly easy victory for it. At least Cube has beaten Tidus and a hindered-Mega Man. There shouldn’t be a problem here. Moltar’s Bracket: Cube > Sandal Moltar’s Prediction: Cube: 67% - Sandal: 33% Lopen’s Analysis GOSH INANIMATE OBJECT Uhhh well I do think joke characters will be a little weaker in this format. A little. But unfortunately for Sandal Sandal is a straight up busta. A joke character in his own right from what I'm hearin. Plus uhh he looks like a dumbass. Who will vote for this? No one but the most stalwart of Dragon Age fans. A cube, now a cube has universal appeal. Geometry is the new fad, boys, and the cube in its magnificent 3 dimensional glory will roll over the dude so effectively you'd think he was a weighted companion sphere. Lopen's prediction: Cubezilla with 73.01% Transience’s Analysis How do you predict the percentage on this one? It's a fairly easily to see result -- WCC wins, and probably pretty big. WCC is a better joke, it's more well-known, it's far more of a meme, it's got a better picture and Portal's a bigger game than Dragon Age is here. But as for the result? WCC could blitz this stupid looking thing or it could just do okay. We've never seen a joke in a 1v1. This is both a predictable and an unpredictable match. As for a percentage? uhh... transience's prediction: Weighted Companion Cube with 71.59% Ngamer’s Analysis Fantastical writeup coming soon! Ngamer Says: WCC > Sandal, 65.61% Kleenex’s Analysis Man, what kind of match is this even. I'm actually pretty shocked that Sandal managed to get in all on his own. I honestly don't know how this happened. Regardless, the mentally challenged Dwarven enchanter from Dragon Age gets fed to a force far mightier in the Cube. You'd think the Portal stuff would have kind of worn off a little by now, the game is over two years old now, but people still quote the stupid thing, ad nauseum. I don't have anything against Portal, but I do have to roll my eyes whenever I see someone posting the lyrics to Still Alive and I want to punch people in the face when they open a conversation with me with "The cake is a lie" (yes, I have had this happen before). All that said, Cube wins this match, but I'm having a tough time deciding by how much. Its path last year showed that it doesn't have the chops to hang with the big boys and didn't have the bandwagoning power that L-Block had the year before. I think Cube's gonna end up disappointing in the long run, but this match isn't going to show it because Sandal just isn't worth anything. Bracket: Weighted Companion Cube Favorites: Sandal Prediction: Weighted Companion Cube with 69.22% |
Red Sox’s Analysis This looks to be a pretty boring match before another exciting, heavily debated, match. WCC did very well last year, beating Tidus and then beating Megaman with Zero in the poll. This will be the first time a joke character (and not of the CATS variety) has been in a 1v1 contest, and we’ll begin to get an idea of how much their strength was increased by the 4-way format. Even if that turns out to be a lot, Sandal should be very weak, and so WCC should take this easily. Next round, however, may be more of a challenge. This match also has implications for L-Block’s match against the winner of Kratos/Charizard later in the contest. This is a battle between an unknown and a character who may as well be an unknown in this format, so my range will be pretty wide tonight: Prediction: Weighted Companion Cube with 65% Upset Potential: 2% Upper Bound: WCC with 75% Lower Bound: WCC with 55% Crew Consensus: Go Cube |
I
think Cube could win with some obscene percentage here. I don't think
this match means a single thing though, Cube could hit 80% and I still
wouldn't be sure what would happen in round 2 against Boss or Drake. --- xyzzy |
this is a pretty anticipated match for me for 2 reasons 1. first time we've seen a joke character in 1v1 2. to see how joke characters face against one another --- http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism |
Yeah,
I was thinking this earlier. I have no faith in Sandal pulling in any
kind of votes. Might chance my percentage before the match starts. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
From: MyWorldIsCrono | Posted: 1/18/2010 7:18:50 PM | #235 http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Mario_vs_Servbot_2002 --- ~NC First you killed Jesus, now you're messing with weekends. Why do you have to ruin everything? - AlecTrevelyan006 |
From: KleenexTissue50 | #236 didnt you say same thing about mr price --- http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism |
Luigi..............65.7% 36374 Meta Knight..34.3% 18986 TOTAL VOTES.........55360 Crew Predictions - 4/5 What Happened: Luigi beats MK, but MK looks semi-respectable Why it Happened: MK didn't get SFF-stomped, but he didn't completely resist either. What will Happen: Luigi...looks fine I guess. Crew Prediction Challenge - One point for everyone Moltar - 5 Lopen - 4 Kleenex - 4 Tran - 4 Ngamer - 4 Red Sox - 4 Guest - 3 Crew Accuracy Challenge - CM had the best Luigi pick Guest - 2 (Bio: 1, CM: 1) Ngamer - 1 Kleenex - 1 Moltar - 1 Lopen - 0 Tran - 0 Red Sox - 0 --- Moltar Status: Bracket: Cube > Sandal (5/6) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Aw yeah, RISE OF THE GUESTS --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
Also, no guest for this match? --- "Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW |
Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup Haha, this is just too funny! Red/Ocelot's still the best match of the season, but this win for Ammy is by far my favorite result. From 45% on Mario to 48% on "this horse"- and here we thought Magus would be the flop of the year! All giggling aside, I'm pretty pleased with myself for that perfect writeup 12 hours back; between the anti-votes and the "cool pic bro" apathy and Okami's solid fanbase, everything is playing out exactly as I said it would. Unfortunately I'm also quite ashamed of myself for letting all the "Shadow - 58%" picks in both the Crew and the Oracle talk me out of going with my instinct and backing the upset. At some point I'm going to have to realize that even the top predictors who I trust don't really know what they're talking about this season... guess I'm not quite there yet, but maybe a good result for Nathan Drake will help push me over the cliff. But before Drake/Boss, we'll be rewarded with... ugh, easily my least anticipated match of the season. I have a reputation for hating joke characters, and it's more or less deserved- on the last episode of The Show I went on the record predicting '10 as "The Death of the Jokes", even going so far as to pick an L-Block loss to HK-47. And yet no percentage tonight is going to mean anything; even if the WCC were to straight up lose this one it wouldn't make a bit of difference, since Sandal is arguably an even bigger joke! I could see the Cube pushing 80 because of Sandal being obscure and looking like such a goon, or struggling to break 50 due due to anti-votes and DA' s strong base of support, but since neither result makes a bit of sense I'm just hedging to the middle. Well actually, Dragon Age did look pretty solid in grabbing over 30% of the vote in that GotY Final, so something in the mid 60s would sound about right for your generic DA opponent. So, yeah, let's go with Ngamer Says: WCC > Sandal, 65.61% Now bring on Drake/Boss, already! --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
From: MyWorldIsCrono | Posted: 1/18/2010 10:18:50 PM | #235 Cube is not a joke character. Neither is GLaDOS. --- Q: How do you find Carnegie Hall? A: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exOxUAntx8I |
Emergency Leonhart Fill-in Guest Write-Up! If Ngirl comes through with her write-up for this match, then disregard mine. This is a safety net so that THE GUESTS continue their rise to the top! But regarding WCC/Sandal, what in the world do you even say about this match? Cube did a fine job getting to the contest quarterfinals last year, edging Tidus in round 1 and edging LFF'd Mega Man in round 3, but who knows what this thing can do in a 1-on-1 environment? I'm not as big of a proponent of the idea that the format drastically changes strength like some people are, but for joke characters, I may be willing to make an exception. They seem like they have the possibility for wild fluctuations depending on the match. Sandal's all about enchantment and stuff, from what I hear. Other than that, I don't know anything about the guy because I haven't played Dragon Age. I can't imagine he has any chance of beating the Cube, but I don't know what to expect as far as percentages. I could see Sandal getting upwards of 40% if Cube is just that weak and Dragon Age fanboys come out in support of Sandal, but I could see him only getting like 20% because, well, just look at him. Plus, I've even seen people who've played Dragon Age make topics on the board asking who Sandal is. I'm just throwing a random number out there like everyone else, so here goes! Current #1 Guru's Anticipation Level for This Match - Loooooow, good thing I'm going to be sleeping through most of this thing! Current #1 Guru's Prediction - Weighted Companion Cube with 64.86% --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
From: LeonhartFour | #240 Aww yeah, you know it! Thanks for doing that emergency write-up, i was going to post one myself but i have no idea what the percentages will be either. --- "Flash runs alongside balefire watching marshmallows stop existing" - War |
From: transients | #234 wee --- xyzzy |
Yep, definitely should have changed this. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
I almost went with the mid-80s which would have been too much. I just had no idea what to think here. --- xyzzy |
How on Earth did Sandal even get into this thing. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Damn, i actually considered putting Cube around 80% in the Oracle. I should've done it! Ah well, 70% is still better than what most people put i think. --- "The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." - George Bernard Shaw |
