GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew
Chaotic Mind's Last-Minute Super Quick Write-up Luigi - the green Mario bro. He's not as strong as his brother, but he's still a top Nintendo guy. His starring role in There Will Be Brawl might have even boosted him a little. Meta Knight - the dark knight ball-thing from Kirby universe. He's got some strength from Brawl, but not enough to take on Luigi. Should barely avoid a doubling i think. Prediction: Luigi with 65.89% --- "Flash runs alongside balefire watching marshmallows stop existing" - War |
Aw yeah There Will Be Brawl Boost --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
well we've seen just being on a web page boost characters before! --- http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism |
Captain John Price...34.28% 27792 Mega Man X..............65.72% 53276 TOTAL VOTES........................81068 What Happened: Price ends up avoiding the doubling against MMX. Why it Happened: Either we underestimated CoD and Price or overestimated MMX. Most likely a combination of the two. What will Happen: MMX shouldn't have any problem next round, but Luigi may give him some trouble. Crew Prediction Challenge - One point for those who picked MMX (hint: everyone) Moltar - 4 Lopen - 3 Kleenex - 3 Tran - 3 Ngamer - 3 Red Sox - 3 Guest - 2 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Bio had the lowest MMX pick Guest - 1 (Bio: 1) Ngamer - 1 Kleenex - 1 Moltar - 1 Lopen - 0 Tran - 0 Red Sox - 0 --- Moltar Status: Bracket: Luigi > MK (4/4) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
MMX shouldn't have any problem next round, but Luigi may give him some trouble. If only Luigi and MMX met. That could be a solid match. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
Can't believe everyone overestimated X that much. --- ~NC |
From: LeonhartFour | #155 Link did disappoint in his match! The upset potential is there! (Ignore that MMX disappointed more) --- Moltar Status: Bracket: Luigi > MK (4/4) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Wait,
you bring up There Will Be Brawl, but completely ignore the Kirby
crew's boost from Brawl In The Family? Doesn't work that way, man!
Let's face it; every "advantage" Luigi has, Meta Knight can counter. Let's go down the list The name: Meta Knight wins The name recognition: Luigi wins The pic: Meta Knight wins The voice: More or less a washout for official video games, but "Mama Luigi" is right up there with CDi Link in the halls of voice acting hell. MAJOR advantage to Meta, thanks to Eric Stuart channeling his inner Zorro. The sword factor: MK has one. The character: Luigi is always stuck playing second fiddle, and as of recently (see: Mario and Luigi series), he's started to live with it, and wants to just ignore all of these dangerous missions Mario wants to get into. I think Linebeck might be more courageous than the latest incarnation of Luigi. Meta Knight is, well, an ambiguously Spanish badass masked swordsman, and captain of a guard filled with equally masked, though not so spanish nor badass, swordsmen. Overall pervasiveness of series: Luigi, by a lot...which is precisely why things are so interesting. Does Mario's superior fanbase come out in force to let Luigi win, or do they realize that Luigi's been turned into comic relief and treat him like they would any other spoony bard? The hardcore voters probably know better, so the higher seed should still win. But the casual vote? Could easily swing towards Meta. I predict that the winner will be held under 55%. |
Um. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Using There Will Be Brawl and Brawl in the Family, Waluigi #1 --- http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/4839/drfc.png |
From: TsunamiXXVIII | Posted: 1/18/2010 1:08:02 AM | #158 A complete failure of a post, bookended by legendary amounts of fail. Meta Knight being a bigger name than Luigi is a joke. Luigi beat Kirby 1 on 1. Anyone who picked Meta Knight to do anything here was being a delusional fanboy of the "THIS GUY IS A GOTHIC BADASS THAT ALL THE 13 YEAR OLDS, AKA PEOPLE LIKE TSUNAMIXXVIIIXXXVMXM, WANT TO BE LIKE!!1" character. --- MUSIC CAN BE OBJECTIVELY DEFINED AND ITS QUALITY EMPIRICALLY MEASURED BY THE INEQUALITY [WHAT I LIKE > WHAT YOU LIKE]. -Jaraqua Lefty Jones |
Meta-Knight is gothic!? Well if you say so. Anyway totally forgot Luigi beat Kirby directly two years ago. Probably would've had ol Meta a bit lower if I remembered that. Not quite this low, mind you, but yeah. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
looks
like I went slightly too high here, but I'd rather be one of the people
calling this too high than the people who thought this could be a
competitive match. Meta-Knight is always overrated by people. --- xyzzy |
Yeah, like those people who took Ryu > Meta Knight in round 1 last year! *conceals bracket* --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
Hyrule Division: Round 1 - Match 6 – (6) Amaterasu vs. (11) Shadow the Hedgehog Moltar’s Analysis Amaterasu Ammy, while not strong, has been lucky over the years. She’s faced easy opponents in Round 1, but this is her toughest test yet. Shadow 45% on Mario is back believe I took Shadow over Tidus, I took Shadow over Zidane, and I’m taking Shadow over Ammy. I just can’t help it. If Shadow’s in a debatable match, I have to pick him. It’s not like this is crazy or anything. Shadow has a very good shot at winning here. Sure, he might not be as strong as a certain match showed, but I think he’s still strong enough to beat Ammy. Shadow, like other Sonic characters, haven’t looked good in four-way matches. A return to the 1v1 format should not only help him here, but also hurt Amaterasu, who I believe benefitted from the four-way format. Okami wasn’t that popular, but it does have a solid fanbase, and that fanbase helped Ammy get past such mighty opponents like Matt the Mii, Little Mac, Ada Wong, Balthier, and Frank West. However, it’s going to take more than a small but reliable fanbase to get 50% of the vote. Shadow’s at least got the Sonic series and Sonic look-a-like factor going for him. He’s got the more popular game and series on GameFAQs. We’ve also seen Shadow put up good numbers in 1v1 before, and I just don’t trust Ammy to do the same. Moltar’s Bracket: Shadow > Amaterasu Moltar’s Prediction: Amaterasu: 44% - Shadow 56% Lopen’s Analysis People are doubtin Shadow cause he's been disappointing lately. After seeing Magus's turd, I wouldn't blame em. That bein said, I don't think it's entirely justified. Or rather, it isn't to this degree. Amaterasu is a cult favorite. She's gonna look better than she should in a four way. Thing is, even forgetting that, she hasn't really looked that good. Narrow wins on Ada goddamn Wong and failing to beat down Frank West. She really doesn't have any great wins under her belt. You can extrapolate her through the strongest one in the poll and say she's a low midcarder, but man I don't buy that. 4 way X-Stats are bad news. So you know, Shadow might screw me here, but whatever, I'm takin the hedgehog. At least he's managed to look decent in 1v1s in the past (going 50/50 with Tidus was a 'drop' back then but that's still way more than I'd give Amaterasu to do). Total flop in 4 ways, but contrary to Amaterasu I think he's gonna do worse in em... mostly given his draws. I mean it really doesn't help if you market to "badass" and you share the poll with Auron, ya know? PLAYTIME IS OVAH or whatever those hip kids say. Lopen's prediction Shadow with 54.87% Transience’s Analysis Here's a weird match. Any conventional thinking has to favour Shadow: he's just far better known. Okami is a game that I doubt 50% of the voters will have played; in fact, I might go as far as to say that only 50% have heard of it. Amaterasu is fighting an uphill battle when it comes to recognizability. Amaterasu has consistently surpassed expectations in the last two years though. Every time someone expects this cult character to fall, she comes up and surprises us. She beat Ada Wong from the far more recognizable RE4. She put up a really nice number on Crono last year. Meanwhile, Shadow has been pulling a Magus for the last few years: every time you lower your expectations, he still manages to go beneath them. He lost updates to Pyramid Head. He bombed out against Zidane. I'm picking Shadow here, but these two characters have been going in absolutely opposite directions lately. Amaterasu is a feel-good upset pick that could pan out if only because Shadow gets so many anti-votes from his recent history. |
Sonic Team redeemed? if Shadow loses to a dog, Sonic is so screwed transience's prediction: Shadow the Hedgehog with 58.33% Ngamer’s Analysis Hmm... currently we're in the middle of the night with Luigi sitting squarely on 66. He took a big jump at the 10 minute mark that made it look as though he might push for 70, but has slowly been trending downward ever since... in other words this is more or less exactly the result we expected with exactly the static Nintendo trends we've grown used to. Not much else to say about this one, so instead I'll use this space to discussion how prediction percentages have looked in the early going. Have you noticed how good the casuals have been this year? 49% of them picked Ocelot despite Red's #5 seed, meaning they were only 200 votes from caving our heads in (only 26% of Gurus didn't trust in Red), and then yesterday a full 74% were smart enough to look past the 4 seed and back MMX. If a smart field like this is the end result of only getting 25k brackets (making this the least popular Character Battle since '02), then I guess I'm all for it! Especially since all those non-bracket makers appear to be warming to the Contest anyways, based on yesterday's very encouraging 81k vote total. Well would you look at this, we've arrived at the strangest battle of the season so far! This isn't the first matchup to catch my interest per se; I was pretty sure heading in that Magus/Alucard and Red/Ocelot would be closely contested, but with this one I honestly don't know WHAT to think. When I first glanced through the bracket this choice seemed obvious, to the tune of "oh look it's Ammy. she did okay for herself the past two years, but then again she's exactly the kind of sore thumb standout/dedicated fanbase-backed character that thrives in 4ways. shouldn't have to be too far above the fodder line to knock her out in a 1v1." Ever since then, however, I've been becoming more and more distrustful of that gut reaction. Firstly because Okami seems like the kind of gem that would stand the test of time, secondly because Ammy looks flat out awesome in that match pic (seriously, would it even be possible to design an image that could appeal to the internet's weeaboo neckbeard wolfshirt demographic more strongly? ), but mostly because... Look, Magus looked like junk during the 4way era, but we talked ourselves into thinking he'd bounce back for a competitive 1v1 match. Team Mega Man looked like it lost a step during the 4way era, but we talked ourselves into thinking X was still capable of blowing out fodder like MM would do back in the day. Well, Sonic Team looked even worse during the 4way era, so forgive me if I'm suddenly quite worried about them falling flat on their faces as soon as a decent 1v1 alternative comes around. And if there's anyone from the Team who voters would turn on first, it'd have to be Shadow- the guy's at least as hated on as Tails, but without any of the nostalgia to counter it. I'm so freaked out at this point that if you were to swap positions and make this a night match, I'd have a very difficult time resisting the urge to flip over to Amaterasu. As is, I'm going to stick with my bracket and trust the Day Vote to pull this one out for Shadow... but I don't like this pick one bit! Ngamer Says: Shadow > Amaterasu, 53.27% Kleenex’s Analysis Here's a match that's a bit more debated, I think. Shadow laid an egg last year, losing to Zidane of all people, and Ammy has managed to be relatively impressive in her two contest showings, 31% on Dante and 35% on Crono respectively (by the way, has anyone ever discussed those numbers? That's either quite a substantial jump for Ammy or Dante would mess up Crono if they ever met). For some reason, though, I have trouble seeing Ammy succeed in a 1v1 environment. Which brings me to another point. |
Everyone
has been talking doom and gloom about Sonic characters for this
contest. SONIC TO BREAK THE NOBLE NINE FOR GOOD, the headlines read.
While there's certainly no denying that the dude embarrassed himself
good last year, losing to both Auron and Kirby before exiting the
contest, I think we're going to see a bit of a "resurgence" here, if
you will. Sonic characters are kind of default votes to me, if you
don't know or don't care about the other guy, vote for Sonic because
you know who he is. With more characters in 4-ways, there's more
chances to vote for not Sonic. I could be way off base here, but I
think people are going to be a little surprised when they see what the
blue hedgehog does this year. Whether this translates to all Sonic
characters remains to be seen, but you've been warned !! Bracket: Shadow the Hedgehog Favorites: Amaterasu Prediction: Shadow the Hedgehog with 57.55% Red Sox’s Analysis Ah, here is a match that I had a very hard time predicting when making my bracket. My initial gut instinct was that Shadow would win simply because of he is far more recognizable. However, actual contest performance from last year suggests that Ammy could win this: she avoided the doubling against Crono twice while Shadow lost to Zidane and let Pyramid Head get way too close to him. Of course, Link was in the Shadow/Zidane poll, and was the primary reason I took Zidane lastyear, so I’ll take that poll with a grain of salt. Beyond that though, Sonic Team has looked uniformly awful the past couple of years, and while 4-ways are often used as an excuse, I think most or at least some of the blame has to be put on the characters simply weakening in strength. And yet, despite that, I’m taking Shadow here, in a close one. 4-way stats are very very very unreliable, and my gut feeling is that Ammy cannot break 50% against a character as well known as Shadow. The hardcore fanbase theory has failed to produce results time and time again, but this isn’t really even an example of using hardcore fanbase theory- it’s just not trusting her 4-way numbers without explanation other than that they happened in a 4-way blowout match. This also a day match, which should help Shadow- the difference in trends is quite pronounced here, and it’s a match where the time of the match could actually make a difference. Prediction: Shadow with 51.50% Upset Chance: 45% Upper Bound: Shadow with 56% Lower Bound: Amaterasu with 55% Guest’s Analysis - Justin_Crossing Let's see. Okami was an extremely underselling game, albeit a good one, while Shadow comes from the Sonic series, and is a decent competitor. Ammy has been able to overcome the likes of people like Ada Wong in 4-ways, but those votes are all she's going to be getting. There's no way that she'll be able to muster up the power to beat someone like Shadow, especially in a day vote. Ammy may be all bright and colorful, but Shadow's easily got the kiddie vote, and the Sonic series vote. Pretty easy decision right here, but Ammy could pull it close. Shadow - 56.54% Crew Consensus: Everyone is backing Shadow here. |
Shadow the unanimous pick? Looks like that means Ammy wins! I'm surprised people are taking Shadow to win so easily though! A return to the 1v1 format should not only help him here, but also hurt Amaterasu, who I believe benefitted from the four-way format. See, I think people are making a mistake here with this logic. Assuming Ammy only did well because of the format or that Shadow only sucked because of the format seems like a mistake. I don't think the format really affects a whole lot in matches where there aren't SFF/LFF. I don't see any reason for it to be the case. We haven't seen any sort of "hardcore vote" where certain fanbases are just that much more loyal than others and are willing to vote for them no matter what more than others. Heck, cult characters are more likely to fluctuate and look bad against good characters. Amaterasu looked fine against Dante, Crono, and Ryu. Magus already proved that he just sucks, and it wasn't a result of 4-ways. I think Shadow will do the same. Plus, the fact that I take Balthier > Zidane makes me feel better about Ammy > Shadow here. --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
Pretty sure this format hurts Shadow. He's the type to get anti-voted. Anyway, unanimous Shadow picks? I can see where this is going. --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Unanimous Shadow picks? And I have the lowest prediction? Well then, that was unexpected. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
Also, today is a national holiday, so Shadow isn't getting much of an ASV. --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
If the Crew gets their first big embarrassment because of freaking Shadow the Hedgehog, I don't know what to say. --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png |
Amaterasu got this. --- wheresoever you go, go with all your heart |
Time to watch the Crew embarrass themselves in less than an hour. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ! |
Five minutes in kneejerk reaction: NICE JOB CREW --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Aw yeah --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
Crew Curse strikes again --- It may be insulting, but it's true! Now this is entertainment! |
wow, Sonic Team really does blow ass these days. I'm not convinced this is over though, Shadow has a really good day vote. --- xyzzy |
hehe burn. --- Shakes Fist! |
Shadow has a really good day vote. MLK Day! --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
oh,
is it? Amaterasu probably takes it then. still, I'd think Amaterasu
would be the type with a strong early vote. not sure if those matter
anymore though. I'm so out of the loop when it comes to trends this year! --- xyzzy |
Looking good so far Crew --- holy crap, you used an apostrophe to make a word plural at least 3 times in that post. that's like cryptonite to me if I was batman - Bako Ikporamee |
Shadow's best time so far was the early vote. What is up with this board. --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
bracketz --- xyzzy |
lol
crew. I actually have Shadow and want him to come back but a part of me
wants Ammy to take it just to laugh at you guys. >> --- ~AK~ // Merc |
oh wow shadow is the consensus --- http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism |
somebody laugh at us? there's a first time for everything. --- xyzzy |
If you guys had gone the 'close match but we're picking Shadow' it wouldn't be so bad. But 58%...! --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
aww yeah no respect for dogs --- xyzzy |
Dogs > Hogs --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
alright, that's game. Sonic is screwed. --- xyzzy |
Time to jump on the Cecil > Knuckles bandwagon --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
tagging --- "Run, run, or you'll be well done!" ~Kefka, Final Fantasy 6~ |
Lightning > Sonic. This would be so awesome if it happened. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
Shadow the lolhog --- Oh, sorry, I got distracted by KrahenProphet. http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=99 |
*laughs* --- Currently Playing: Final Fantasy Tactics, Ocarina of Time |
UNANIMOUS? Maybe I should have joined the Crew after all. You gotta be kidding me, no one picked Amaterasu? Shadow has had one good match in 6 years (going on 7) and has looked like total crap since. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´ http://img.imgcake.com/wesker.gif |
eh,
total crap is still better than Amaterasu had looked. I expected some
dissent here as well, but I wouldn't say Amaterasu should have been the
favourite. I didn't see anyone saying that pre-match. (though to be
honest, I also haven't read too much, so maybe people made this
argument) --- xyzzy |
Ammy
shouldn't have been favorite, but 58% for Shadow was just ridiculous.
'Total crap is still better than Amaterasu had looked' seriously? --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
well, if you're going to call Shadow total crap, then yeah, I'd say total crap is better than Amaterasu had ever looked. --- xyzzy |
