GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew
Yessss, Lopen with 65% for Ocelot, red sox with 65% for Red. Let's do this. --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
"Prediction: Pokemon Trainer Red with 65% Upset Chances: 5% Upper Bound: Red with 73% Lower Bound: Ocelot with 52%" Red Sox is by far the best addition to the crew --- http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism |
From: Lopen | #100 As the saying goes, "We all make mistakes". ... Or, in your case, "We all do things correctly" --- It may be insulting, but it's true! Now this is entertainment! |
Hey now. I sided with Alucard and had a lower Link percentage! --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
"What... is your favorite color?" "Blue. No, YELLOW..." Notice how red didn't even get mentioned. Also, Red has six pokeballs. Ocelot's gun has six bullets. Coincidence? This is awesome. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Yeah well Kleenex certain people aren't ragging on you. EVERYBODY WANTS TO BE A LEGEND, WANNA CALL OUT THE BIGGEST DOG IN THE YARD. BIO YOU'RE IN MY YARD. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
who the hell has yellow as their favorite color --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Sir Galahad, the pansy. --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
Ngamer's Fantastical Analysis If we assume Squall = Auron (seems reasonable enough- in fact my bracket is riding on it!), '05 and '06 tell us that Magus beats Alucard head to head with about 56%. Instead, we're looking at *checks quick* 58.50%... for Alucard. I mean, I've been saying all along how our old 1v1 stats and results were going to be highly suspect after such a long time off, but I didn't expect them to already be proven useless on opening day! Just don't understand how Magus could have fallen off the face of the earth like this... is this shift CT-specific, or is GameFAQs really starting to lose its status as the web's most RPG-friendly site? Perhaps tomorrow's result will help shed a little light on the matter. Ah, good ol' Ocelot. The guy who was easily beaten by Pac-Man, got nearly doubled by Bowser, then managed a loss to Jill Valentine despite perfect timing from MGS4. Ugly stuff... soooo, why do I feel so nervous about picking Red? I suppose it's mostly because this terrible performance from Magus has shaken my belief in our "board favorites"- maybe Alucard's win was only the first of a couple dozen times where we get our heads handed to us by the casuals? Because sure, we all love to beat the drum when it comes to "games != characters", but would anyone really be picking Red here if not for Pokemon's fantastic run in '09? Really? Hmm... nay, too early to start abandoning my bracket; I'm sticking with Red for the win, but wouldn't be surprised in the least if this came right down to the final couple hours. It'll also be the first real opportunity to test out my "dreaded Nintendo Night Match" theory, as MGS has always been a top performer in Europe, according to Geolocations. Perhaps we'll even see our first lead change of the year, before the Nintendo morning vote arrives to bail Red back out? Boy, that'd be something! *crosses fingers* Ngamer Says: Red > Ocelot, 51.16% --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
If
we assume Squall = Auron (seems reasonable enough- in fact my bracket
is riding on it!), '05 and '06 tell us that Magus beats Alucard head to
head with about 56%. Instead, we're looking at *checks quick* 58.50%...
for Alucard. Which means Squall beats Auron with 64%! --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
red
sox makes my head spin. How do you take a super debatable coin flip of
a match, only give it a 10% upset chance, GET IT WRONG, then head into
the next debatable match and lower your upset window to 5%? --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Such is the way of the red sox! --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
red sox is the new Lopen. Lopen is the new has-been --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
red
sox makes my head spin. How do you take a super debatable coin flip of
a match, only give it a 10% upset chance, GET IT WRONG, then head into
the next debatable match and lower your upset window to 5%? I actually wrote that before seeing Magus/Alucard. Anyway, it looks like both Lopen and I missed the mark by a lot, and the conventional wisdom was right tonight. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
Yeah well you were more confident in your wrongness! I would've had Ocelot's possibility to be upset at at least um... 30%, just cause Ocelot is a choking jackass. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Need to save a copy of this somewhere, and this seems as good a place as any. Most Suggested Characters on Akinator, Past 30 Days 1. Mario 1662 2. Master Chief 1358 3. Link 1152 4. Pikachu 1125 5. Sonic The Hedgehog 1068 6. Gordon Freeman 1004 7. Solid Snake 789 8. Pac-Man 749 x. Ash Ketchum 747 9. Heavy Weapons Guy 714 10. Cloud Strife 705 11. Captain Price 683 12. Arthas 536 13. Thrall 535 14. Niko Bellic 517 15. Morrigan 496 16. Luigi 478 17. Yoshi 453 18. Samus 443 19. Sora 442 20. Nathan Drake 425 --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Once again I will be tagging this topic. --- GranTurisMo - God's Tiniest Man - Great Thorn Monkeys! Member of the merSHINEsess Nation since 7/15/09 |
9. Heavy Weapons Guy 714 10. Cloud Strife 705 Heavy vs Link finals lets do this --- It may be insulting, but it's true! Now this is entertainment! |
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
this is the first time I've been home since the contest started.. good to see I'm awful so far! I guess I like the Trainer here. who the hell knows though. I have no idea what kind of trends we've been seeing. --- xyzzy |
Hyrule Division: Round 1 - Match 4 – (4) Captain John Price vs. (13) Mega Man X Moltar’s Analysis Price Hey look, it’s the first of the 389794 overseeded casual shooter game characters. Mega Man X Hey look, it’s freakin’ Mega Man X, a characters who’s proven he can hang with elites. Look at this joke seeding right here. This is only going to be an upset going by those numbers. Anyway, if you were around in 2008, you saw Mega Man X hang with Mario for 3 matches in a row. SFF funny-business aside, he can be considered at least at the near-elite level. Then you have a Call of Duty character. Modern Warfare may have a decent audience on GameFAQs, but not only does that mean nothing for the actual characters in the game, but MMX pretty much stomps it here. We’ve seen time and time again that for these casual games, the actual games may do well, but the characters from the games don’t end up having any significant strength. The same will happen here. Moltar’s Bracket: MMX > Price Moltar’s Prediction: Price: 23% - MMX: 77% Lopen’s Analysis The lovechild of Captain Morgan, Papa John, and Fisher Price join to bring you the drunken pizza parlor deluxe, some assembly required. Well you know what? Mega Man X doesn't like toys, pizza, or drunks. He's just devoid of fun. And he kicks your sand castle over while he's at it. Lopen's prediction: Mega Man X with 75.75% Transience’s Analysis Man, I don't even know what to say here. Price is going to get killed because he's up against a top 15 guy and his picture is just hilariously bad. The only thing to watch for here is if Price can avoid a tripling; if he does then maybe that Soap guy has a chance against Big Daddy. This match is awful though and I can't even convince myself to say too much about it. Mega Man X's path is set in stone so we can't even hope to see a dominating performance. Dude is gonna get Link'd. wow, how depressing this match will take twelve hours glad I won't be home transience's prediction: Mega Man X with 77.37% Ngamer’s Analysis They say the third time's the charm, and it would appear to be true; after two dubs we've hit on the match to remind us why we love 1v1s! As I write this we're in the middle of the night with Red clinging to a slim 400 vote lead. Sure appears that though Ocelot's going to be able to take the lead without too much trouble, but will there be a Pokemon Morning Vote to put Red back out in front to stay? My money is on "yes", but I've had a heck of a good time watching this one play out no matter how it ends up! The only downside is how this will clearly be only a 1 point swing, as it's obvious that neither of these guys will be giving MMX any trouble. No, Mega Man X won't be losing any sleep over Red or Ocelot. ...but what about the 4th seeded Captain Price? Sure he's overseeded, but the guy IS a main character in the 4th most popular game in US history, one which sold all of its 8+ million copies in the last few months. That might have been enough to scare me into respecting the guy just a little, but then Modern Warfare 2 had to burst the bubble by underperforming in the GotY before bombing out of the Game of the Decade poll. (Okay so it didn't really "bomb", but given its recency and complete lack of overlap with the rest of the competition that was still a crappy showing IMO.) Clearly a pretty sizable chunk of this site is sick of hearing about this game and eager to antivote it; you can hide that kind of dislike in a 4way, but back here in The Magical Land of 1v1s, I'm liking MMX's chances to put up a big number. Especially given how MMX looks fantastic next to that awful Price pic, yuck! |
But wait!
Earlier tonight someone in Stats mentioned how well Price is doing
right now on Akinator, the site where you enter someone's name and a
genie plays "Twenty Questions" in an attempt to guess who you're
thinking of. Naturally I had to research this claim for myself, and
turns out it's true: Price is the gaming world's #11 most-named
character in the past 30 days, just behind Sonic and Cloud and ahead of
people like Luigi, Samus, and Sora. Granted that isn't TOO surprising,
given how Master Chief is the second most popular character on the site
(behind only Mario, and ahead of Link), but it still had me in a blind
panic for a minute, especially since Mega Man doesn't even make the Top
20! Is Captain Price really that important to CoD, and have "kids these
days" just forgotten about MM? Fortunately, as so always happens,
Google saved the day: http://www.google.com/trends?q=%22Mega+Man%22%2C+%22Captain+Price%22&ctab=0&geo=all&date=ytd&sort=1 Whew, now that's more like it! So yeah, Price isn't going to be a complete pushover (especially since the American afternoon voting should provide him a nice boost), but I still like X to win this one going away. Let's call it a... tripling! Ngamer Says: Mega Man X > Captain Price, 75.09% Kleenex’s Analysis Captain who? John Price? This dude got a 4th seed? This match is going to be a rout. I'm of the opinion that X is probably as strong as Mega Man, maybe slightly stronger. Regardless of how well Modern Warfare 2 did in the Game of the Year polls this year, this dude isn't going anywhere. Now to be fair, I don't know how robust the story mode in the game is, and I don't know how prominent this dude is. He does have a pretty sweet moustache and a cool hat, so at least he doesn't look quite as generic as someone line Nathan Hale. Remember that dude? No? Didn't think so. What's going to be fun for me in this match is to see how bad MMX can manhandle this dude. I think this has the potential to be the biggest blowout of the first round. In fact, I almost want to say this could be the first time we see the coveted 90% mark since 2004. Almost. Bracket: Mega Man X Favorites: Mega Man X Prediction: Mega Man X with 87.78% Red Sox’s Analysis This should be a pretty boring match- good thing it lasts only 12 hours. Megaman X is a pseudo-Noble Niner, and strength wise is probably on par with the near-elite, just a tad below Megaman. He should have an easy win here, probably in the 70s. Even the percentages won’t tell us very much information here, although a strong performance for Price will be a good sign for Soap later on in the contest. Prediction: Megaman X with 70% Upset Chance: 0% Upper Bound: Megaman X with 76% Lower Bound: Megaman X with 64% |
Guest’s Analysis - Biolizard28 This match comes off as a no-brainer to me, and is really only worth paying attention to because it will show how X and Modern Warfare operate in a 1v1 environment. Pretty much any and all evidence we can gather from last year suggests that X is mopping the floor with Price. MacMillan, the sole representative of CoD4 in last year’s contest, went out in round one losing to even Siegfried by 7000 votes, while Mega Man X was living up to the original’s legacy, giving Mario himself a scare not once, but twice. Obviously, a one-shot character who looks like swamp-thing probably isn’t going to perform as well as one of the sub-series’ principle characters, but in my opinion, recognition here is a weakness, not a strength. The Modern Warfare sub-series may not have attained Halo levels of apathy/hatred, but it’s definitely one of those games that more “sophisticated” gamers look down upon as frat-boy fodder. In other words, the game’s simply too popular for its own good. Never mind the fact that the cast of both games are pretty hard to attach to, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a person who had played both games failed to name even 3 characters in 10 seconds. So between anti-voting, apathy, and a bad track record character-wise, Mega Man X pretty much has this in the bag. Hopefully Price does well enough to validate my Soap > Big Daddy pick, but for now… Bracket: Mega Man X Favorite:Mega Man X Prediction: Mega Man X with 68% Crew Consensus: MMX easily wins this one. |
Alucard........58.52% 38150 Magus.........41.48% 27037 TOTAL VOTES........65187 What Happened: Magus disappointed like always. Why it Happened: Magus's crappiness over the last 2 years was not a fluke. He really has fallen off the map. What will Happen: Alucard will get the honor of being destroyed by Link. Crew Prediction Challenge - Alucard pickers get a point Moltar - 2 Lopen - 2 Kleenex - 2 Tran - 1 Ngamer - 1 Red Sox - 1 Guest - 1 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Moltar had the highest Alucard pick Kleenex - 1 Moltar - 1 Lopen - 0 Tran - 0 Ngamer - 0 Red Sox - 0 Guest - 0 --- Moltar Status: Bracket: Red > Ocelot (Go Ocelot) (2/2) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
I
kind of agree with Biolizard here. Price will be weak but he won't be a
total chump - MMX won't destroy him. People basing Price off of
MacMillan are in for a rude awakening, I think. (what a typo) --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
pretty good from Price here. likin' Soap vs. Big Daddy now. --- xyzzy |
ya'll really underestimated price --- http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism |
tag. --- "I do read sometimes." Mat Cauthon, The Wheel of Time. |
Spot on. Feels good, men. --- It may be insulting, but it's true! Now this is entertainment! |
"What's
going to be fun for me in this match is to see how bad MMX can
manhandle this dude. I think this has the potential to be the biggest
blowout of the first round. In fact, I almost want to say this could be
the first time we see the coveted 90% mark since 2004. Almost." lol kleenex --- http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism |
And Biolizard is the genius of the day! --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
red sox is the worst addition to the crew. 5% upset chance for Ocelot.. rofl. And 10% for Alucard against MAGUS? He really is the next Lopen. --- "You guys have electricity? How do you manage that?" "We have 2 giant hamsters running on a massive wheel in our secret underground cave..." |
The first time red sox's prediction was actually remotely close, congrats. --- ~AK~ // Merc |
Too bad I still technically beat him. --- It may be insulting, but it's true! Now this is entertainment! |
*high fives Guest* Power to the Guests! I'd honestly say this is more MMX disappointing than Price impressing. X isn't as strong as Mega Man, I don't think. I mean, do we really think Price is as strong as Tidus? (Not a word, Albion!) --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
That's the way I see it. Don't think Price was underestimated all that much by most of us. Man how'd you guys write so much about this <_< --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
The first time red sox's prediction was actually remotely close, congrats. I'm tied for 1st in all-time Oracle top 5 picks. And despite that, my overall record is extremely mediocre. I guess my pick accuracy just has huge variance! --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
From: Lopen | #137 Most of you were off by 10+%. I'd say that's a pretty big underestimation! --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Yeah, but his MMX prediction was closer than his Ocelot prediction, so that's got to count for something! --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
My point was that it's probably X overestimation more than Price underestimation. We'll see in two rounds but yeah. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Pokemon Trainer Red....50.16% 29195 Revolver Ocelot.............49.84% 29013 TOTAL VOTES...........................58208 What Happened: The match actually lived up to the hype! Red started out with the early lead, Ocelot used the night vote to come back, but in the final hour, the morning vote pushed Red back into the lead and gave him the victory. Why it Happened: No one knew how strong Red would be, but the slight majority thought he would be strong enough to beat Ocelot in a close match. In a 24 hour match, Red might have won by more, and even on a different day at night, Ocelot could have won instead. What will Happen: By going toe-to-toe with Ocelot, Red proved he's not strong enough to beat MMX. Crew Prediction Challenge - One point for those who picked Red Moltar - 3 Lopen - 2 Kleenex - 2 Tran - 2 Ngamer - 2 Red Sox - 2 Guest - 1 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Ngamer had the best Red pick Ngamer - 1 Kleenex - 1 Moltar - 1 Lopen - 0 Tran - 0 Red Sox - 0 Guest - 0 --- Moltar Status: Bracket: MMX > Price (3/3) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Although now sniffing around LOL X-Stats a bit I'm thinking it probably was more Price underestimation than MMX overestimation. Still think it's some of both though. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Haha whoops. Oh well. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Hyrule Division: Round 1 - Match 5 – (3) Luigi vs. (14) Meta Knight Moltar’s Analysis Luigi The man in green suffered a defeat at the hands of his brother last year. This year, now that he is out of his brother’s path, how far will he go? Meta Knight He may be Top Tier in Brawl, but this is a bit different. He can beat Luigi in a game, but how about in a Contest match? Easy match. Luigi is much higher on the Nintendo totem pole than MK. Only question here is if Luigi will take advantage of SFF and beat down MK, or if MK will use his Brawl-support and end up looking decent. I’ll bet on the latter. Moltar’s Bracket: Luigi > MK Moltar’s Prediction: Luigi: 63% - MK: 37% Lopen’s Analysis Luigi and Meat Knight enter glorious combat. Luigi's out to prove something cause Spam Knight busted out the A+A+A+A+A -> B+B+B+B+B f+B+B+B+B on Princess Peach a couple of years ago. While I wouldn't call this match a lock by any means (unlike most people), I also realize that all data we have backs up Luigi to stomp this one. Meta-Knight's had a few matches but never really got the chance to shine in any of them. Weird L-Block or nintendo ridden polls throwin him for a loop. Luigi's had good performances in the past, so there's no real reason to doubt him... but... something about this match rubs me the wrong way. Not that I'm gonna go with that. Luigi wins, just less confident than I'd like to be about it-- despite the percentage. What am I afraid of? That rarely/never seen reverse SFF? Maybe! Lopen's prediction: Luigi with 56.12% Transience’s Analysis Well, so far I've sucked. This match should be pretty simple though. Meta-Knight is probably the strongest of the new Brawl characters, but he's going up against a guy with trumps him in everything. Luigi's been around longer, he's more iconic, he's better known. Meta-Knight probably gets a lot of votes based on design, but he shouldn't ever be able to compete with Luigi. Meta-Knight might have beaten Peach, but Luigi's in another class. yuck, Nintendo match these always play out poorly meta-knight doubled transience's prediction: Luigi with 69.11% Ngamer’s Analysis Fantastical writeup coming later! Ngamer Says: Luigi > Meta Knight, 63.96% Kleenex’s Analysis Meat Knight. This is probably going to end badly for the 14 seed. MK managed to impress (?) in 2007 and a lot of people were heralding him as the Great L-Block Savior of 2008, but that didn't quite pan out. Like a lot of the first-round matches, this is going to be about how well the winning character can do. Luigi should lay a pretty significant SFF beatdown here, vindication for the man in green's lame path last year. What else is there to say about this match? Bracket: Luigi Favorites: Luigi Prediction: Luigi with 68.17% Red Sox’s Analysis The result of this Nintendo SFF is not in doubt, but the margin should be interesting as this feels like a sort of proxy-rematch of the Super Mario Bros./Super Smash Bros. match in the series contest. Meta-Knight is the top character in Brawl, he has a sword, and he looks cool. While 2008 showed us that simply being in Brawl will not make you very strong, Meta Knight is the exception as he showed himself to be the clear strongest of the wave of new Brawl characters. Indeed, he already showed himself to have some strength in 2007, before the game came out when no one knew he would be top tier, defeating Peach and Wario in that year easily. |
Luigi
is stronger, of course, and presumably higher on the SFF ladder.
Meta-Knight put up about 42% on Ryu in 2008, and Ryu and Luigi are
probably fairly close. So Luigi has this match won with no problems,
and the question is whether and how much he can turn on the SFF
boosters. SSB has stood up to SMB several times before, most famously
in the SMB/SSB match where it appeared that SSBM pretty much single
handedly held the Mario series under 62%. Kirby, who derives most of
his support from Smash and his character design, also stood up well to
Bowser and Luigi, and displayed substantially different trends against
them too, just as SSB did against SMB- a sign of a somewhat independent
fanbase. Speaking of trends, the trends favor Luigi a little bit in
this match, as this is a night match. My best guess is that Meta Knight can mostly escape SFF from Luigi, and so I will use SMB’s final percentage against SSB as my prediction: Prediction: Luigi with 61.76% Upset Chance: 0% Upper Bound: Luigi with 68% Lower Bound: Luigi with 57% Crew Consensus: Luigi’s got this, but how much he wins with is the question. |
Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup Wow, I guess CoD players do care about Captain Price after all, just like Akinator told us! Assuming MMX = MM (which seemed about right last year), this puts Price in the range of *checks lolx* Yoshi, Tidus, and Leon Kennedy. Alright, that's just ridic... clearly everything Mega Man has taken at least a couple steps back in recent years, but even so, Price must be a much more respectable character than we gave him credit for. The odd thing about this poll is how X started at 65% and then... just sat there for the next 11 hours. I thought for sure such an old school guy would collapse against the Xbox afternoon vote. I'm also suprised at what a popular match this one turned into- there's still over an hour of voting left, and we're already past the 76k mark (Alucard/Magus topped out at only 65k). Maybe people are finally starting to get the picture about these polls only lasting 12 hours and votals will see a boost on both sides of the day from here out. Tonight's battle is... not exactly enthralling. Nintendo on Nintendo always seems to produce a dud, even when we try our best to get excited beforehand. Part of the problem is the SFF (you really can produce a pretty reliable Nintendo totem pole, unlike other fanbases), but what bothers me even more is how N on N vote trends are so dreadfully static. All that being said, I'd still say that Meta Knight is being counted out too easily in this one. Much like his co-worker Kirby, this guy's got a killer character design and figures to draw a healthy amount of strength from SSB. And meanwhile Luigi doesn't strike me as a King of Nintendo SFF, unlike his brother. Which is not to say MK could actually win or anything crazy like that (let's not forget that even Kirby managed only 48% against Luigi directly), but I'm betting he holds up better than most are giving him credit for. Especially since this is a Night Match, and Europe figures to... hmmm, maybe I should actually look that up. Whoops, looks like Kirby actually bombed with the Euroes last season, and Asia hates him even worse. Oh well; time to go down with the ship then, I guess! Ngamer Says: Luigi > Meta Knight, 63.96% --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
anyone wanna make a last minute prediction for the Guest? --- Moltar Status: Bracket: MMX > Price (3/3) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Guest HURR DURR META KNIGHT with 102.44% --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Wait i'm here! Forgot this was coming up so quick! Damn 12 hour matches! Just gimme a minute. --- "The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." - George Bernard Shaw |
