GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew
Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup Character Battle? Check. 128 characters? Check. 1v1s? Check! A perfect 3 for 3 from SB; no wonder the excitement level for this Contest is the highest I've seen since 2007! (Granted, that isn't exactly saying A TON, but still.) The only objection some purists have is in regards to the 12 hour matches, but honestly, I think this is the best possible solution we could have hoped for. 127 days is way too long, even for diehards like myself, and having one poll lower on the page getting less attention wouldn't have been fair. As for changing the entire front page layout just to suit the Contest, sorry, that idea was never too realistic. On to the match itself, where we have overall #1 nom getter Link all prepped to kick the crap out of... well, anyone, but in this particular case it ended up being Thrall. (How the junk does this guy keep on making it into brackets over Diablo, especially considering the impending release of D3?) A few years back Blizzard/Warcraft entrants could still put a shiver down our spines, but after the way they failed to astound us during their 4way opportunities, I can't imagine anyone fearing this fanbase now that we're back to 1v1s. And as far as rallies go, you couldn't ask for worst circumstances- the Contest is only just starting so no one will know its happening until a couple hours in, once they're made aware of the poll there will only be 10 hours left (in the dead of night), you're facing a universally loved character who will be up by thousands of votes almost instantly... and I could go on like this! However, all that being said, there's still one trend worth watching for in this one (aside from "can Link hit 85? 90?"): Nintendo in Night Matches. We know that this company and its characters (especially those in SSB) have always performed well on this site, but Geolocations has shown us that nearly all of that support is granted them by US voters, and that the problem is only getting worse in the past could years. How many of those American voters are going to be arriving at the site past 2am? How many are going to be waking up to check GameFAQs before noon, especially on a Saturday morning? So yes, I'm still backing Link to dominate (especially after seeing how awesome he looks in that match pic- kudos to whoever put that together!), but with the added warning that I'm not going to be trusting Nintendo guys (especially those fueled mainly by Brawl) in Night matches until someone BESIDES the universally beloved Link is able to prove my doubts unfounded. Ngamer Says: Link > Thrall, 85.42% --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Looks like it's Zen who I owe that high five to. *high fives Zen* --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Come on, Link! --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
The hero of time's um... time... has run out !! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
For the 90%! --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
Just the first of my many victories. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
I seem to have misplaced my stats page form my favorites drop-down... Anyone happen to have the site with all the stats from past contests? I got some numbers to figure... Tatl's Prediction: Link (too late to give a percentage I guess) Tatl's Bracket: Link Tatl Wants: Thrall, just for the nerdrage fits. =-P I need to decide which matches I want... I think the Midna match is just too depressing for me to do this year. /cry SCREW YOU SORA!!! |
*from* |
Hmmm Link isn't dropping much at the start of the night. When morning hits I think the day will be mine, Tissue! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Site with the past Contest stats? Well I have the brackets and x-stats and character histories over at http://thengamer.com/xstats/ If you want match updates and that sort of thing they're at http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/ Otherwise head to the Board 8 wiki for anything else you'd need. --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Hyrule Division: Round 1 - Match 2 – (8) Alucard vs. (9) Magus Moltar’s Analysis Alucard A character who has fallen in rank over the years, but still has some strength left. Today, he’ll have to bare the sunlight and try to show everyone that he still has what it takes to win a debated match. Magus A character who has fallen in rank over the years, but still has some strength left. Today, he’ll have to bare the sunlight and try to show everyone that he still has what it takes to win a debated match. Funny how this is a day match between two night characters. Let the battle of the washed-up has-beens commence! Alucard has the advantage going into this match if you look at past performances. This isn’t ‘35% on Link’ Magus we’re talking about. Ever since 2007, Magus has looked horrible. Struggling in weak four-packs and losing to characters (and objects) that he has no reason losing to. At least Alucard looked somewhat decent in those two years. Magus has had CTDS, but I don’t think it’s going to be enough. It doesn’t even look like CTDS had that big of an effect on anything CT-related. Magus’s only shot here is if he was somehow weakened by four-ways and I wouldn’t bank on that. Alucard should take this in a close one. Moltar’s Bracket: Alucard > Magus Moltar’s Prediction: Alucard: 53% - Magus: 47% Lopen’s Analysis Magus lost to a bag full of sand man let's make fun of him. Anyway, this is like the battle of the old men, here. Both of these dudes, in their prime, were beasts among men. By 2003/2004 stats I think Magus wins with 57% or so. But they've both aged. Magus of course, losing to a bag of sand. How sad. Also that loser from the Sega Genesis and some others I've no doubt forgotten. Alucard... well, you know, it's kinda um... debatable, he's had less humiliating losses over the years. Makes sense-- the dude is a vampire so it's harder to see him age. Oh, and it's also a battle of who dries up in the sun more. Now Alucard is a vampire, but only half vampire, and as I recall goth people often hate the sun too. What I mean to say is, to me it comes down to who had more releases this generation. Magus has CT:DS. Alucard on the other hand had that PSP remake, and XBL/PSP Network releases of SotN. And who could forget Castlevania Judgment~ for the Wii. More relevance to this generation makes me think Alucard holds better here. So, in summary: Sun: Alucard. Aging: Alucard. Plan: Alucard. Lopen's prediction: Alucard with 51.09% Transience’s Analysis This match is hilarious. The second match of the contest is always a weird one and this contest is no exception. Once upon a time, Magus beat Ganondorf; once upon a time, Alucard beat Kirby. Both of these guys have fallen from grace in a most hilarious fashion. Alucard loses to Liquid Snake now and struggles to dispatch guys like Captain Falcon despite Nintendo overlap. Magus's contest history is pretty famous, going from beating Ganondorf to losing to a bag of sand. Plus this match is in the daytime where both guys absolutely suck. So who's more popular? It's so hard to tell thanks to fourways obscuring the big picture. I'd probably give the edge to Alucard - at least he hasn't been embarrassed by Phoenix Wright, Big Boss and Sandbag. Alucard has lost, but he hasn't been embarrassing while doing it. Magus's contest history is to underwhelm you at every turn and it will probably continue here. And yet I'm going with Magus here. When it comes down to it, I'm going to side with the Nintendo/Square character over the non-Nintendo/Square character. I just think that fanbase is more loyal. Castlevania has fallen off a lot more than Chrono Trigger has here. It just hasn't aged as well. Magus has fallen but I'll back him one last time. |
<vampire battle both guys die in the sunlight Magus sucks less, wins transience's prediction - Magus with 54.87% Ngamer’s Analysis Dang, Link's not quite living up to the hype- we're about halfway through the match as I'm writing this and he's "only" floating around the 79% mark. But unlike I said in my writeup, this isn't the fault of the dreaded Nintendo Night Matches and their lack of US representation; even during his traditionally dominating Power Hour the American voters didn't boost Link over 83% for a single update. Seems as though we simply underestimated Thrall in this one- sure he's awful, but we were batting percentages around as though he were turbo fodder, when in reality he's just your everyday run-of-the-mill fodder. That brings us to the first debatable match of the season, and actually I'd say it has potential to be one the better matches of the entire first round! I mean sure, this matchup would have been a good deal more anticipated a few years ago, back when Alucard was the guy who could hang 52% on Kirby and 55% on Kratos and Magus still had us drooling over his 35% on Link. Both characters have dropped way off since then (though Alucard has at least slipped away from Content relevance somewhat gracefully, while post-'03 Magus has been the equivalent of Sideshow Bob navigating a field of rakes), but the cool thing is that their nose dives have been well synchronized, leaving enough room to make a reasonable case for either character. The "smart money" has to be on Alucard; 56% of our Gurus are backing him here, and I understand why. However, I'm distrustful of that perception... to me it seems to be colored by Magus always failing so explosively rather than taking his real strength into consideration. Sure he lost to Knuckles, but that was the year Knux went on to put up 47% on Squall- not exactly chump change, and I'm far from convinced that Alucard could have managed as much himself. The other thing being used against Magus is the Chrono Trigger day vote; a legit concern considering this will be our first Day match of the season. Personally though I'm not too worried, considering how Alucard's a long ways from a daylight stud himself, CT wasn't a complete day flop during the last Contest, and if anything this gives Magus an edge during the crucial final hour of this one. Sure, it's Magus and not Frog, but if this is close down the stretch I could still see him pulling out some of that patented CT Magic in the final couple updates, Liquid Snake-style! Plus, I've never liked this Alucard pic. Give me Magus here. (Whoo, flawless reasoning!) Ngamer Says: Magus > Alucard, 50.04% Kleenex’s Analysis I hate this match. I know it's debated and it'll probably be close and everything, but it basically boils down to which character sucks less. Both characters have plenty of recent failures on their resume, but going back over the results of the past few contests, Alucard seems to be a little more consistent. And it's really hard to ignore this - http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3272. Of course, this year we have Our Lord and Savior, Chrono Trigger DS. Unfortunately, I'm not banking on that having much of an effect - it didn't sell a ton and it came out over a year ago. There's also the fact that Magus seems to be immune from the last minute rally/cheat/whatever powers that Crono and Frog seems to possess. It's probably going to be fairly close, both characters suck ass during the day, and neither of them are particularly strong anymore, but I feel like without Magus's strong first couple hours, he's not going to be able to thrive here (using the term "thrive" extremely loosely). Bank on another embarassing first-round exit for the guy who was once supposed to beat Link. Bracket: Alucard Favorites: Magus Prediction: Alucard with 51.89% |
Red Sox’s Analysis Following contest tradition, the second match is a debatable one. However, despite the amount of debate this match has been getting on Board 8, and how even it is in the BOP, I think this match is pretty clear-cut. Magus and Alucard looked like equals in 2008, with Magus possibly looking a little better. Then came Chrono Trigger DS. If Magus gets anything from CTDS, he should win, and if not, then the match is still even. I'm not going to write off Alucard's chances entirely, but Magus looks like the clear favorite to me. I'm expecting a lot from CTDS because it will be the CT crew's first game since 1995 (well, technically, since the PS1 release of CT in 2001, but it doesn't make a big difference to the argument). Crono has always been by far the least recognizable member of the Noble Nine, and thus the one who stands to benefit most from a new game that exposes him to a new audience. It's true that CTDS wasn't a huge game, and so I'm not expecting a huge boost, just a moderate one- something that pushes post CTDS Crono to around 55% on pre-CTDS Crono. It's hard to tell how much CTDS boosted Chrono Trigger from the Games Contest, because we hadn't seen CT the game since 2004, and we're trying to compare 2008 CT to 2009/2010 CT. CT lost to Super Mario 64, which was a big disappointment, but then SM64 went even with A Link to the Past, which redeemed CT's performance. CT ended up at 48-49% on LTTP, which was about what one would have expected with a moderate boost from CTDS. That would mean that it's still a step below its 2004 strength, but considerably above its 2008 strength. Looking at the difference between CT and FFVI also confirms this- the games were only 3% apart in 2004, but while CT ended up close to LTTP again in 2009, FFVI failed to match its old percentage against it even with 2 other Nintendo games, including a Zelda game, in the poll. FFVI looks like it'd be very hard pressed to even break 40% against LTTP 1v1 now, which provides a sobering warning of what might have been in store for CT in the games contest without CTDS. But all of this is inconclusive, and Magus/Alucard will be the first litmus test for CTDS with characters, entities who actually have been in recent contests. Magus and Alucard put up comparable performances in 2008: Magus got 40% on Sonic and just under 50% on Sandbag, while Alucard got 36% on Crono and 39% on the Pikachu that took down L-Block (clearly stronger than Pikachu's normal strength by a good deal). If the match is close or Alucard wins, it would be a sign that CTDS did very little or nothing. But if Magus wins by a sizable margin, then the margin can be taken as a rough measure of the size of the CTDS Boost. I should note that according to my theory that says that weaker characters boost or fall faster than stronger characters, even those in the same series or game, the boosts Magus or Frog get may be somewhat larger than the boost Crono or CT the game get. Prediction: Magus with 57% Upset Chances: 10% Upper Bound: Magus with 62% Lower Bound: Alucard with 52% Guest’s Analysis - Mr3790 The first two contest matches, along with the new 12-hour format starts today, the first day time match being this one, Alucard Vs Magus. It being a day match is funny, considering that both of these guys are night charactors, also being once strong midcarders growing weaker by the year. This one will probably be close, yet I say Magus will suprise us dispite previous disapointments and take a close win with his "hardcore" CT fanbase. If it is close, CT "Magical" Last hour may finally come in and have a chance to work for Magus. In The end, I would say the match will look like... Magus>Alucard 50.92 Crew Consensus: In a 4-3 split, the Crew is giving the slight edge to Magus. |
the Crew is giving the slight edge to Magus Abandon Ship --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Crew fails again! --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
The highest Alucard pick was 51.89% are you kidding me --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Moltar’s Prediction: Alucard: 53% --- Moltar Status: Bracket: Alucard > Magus (1/1) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Prediction: Magus with 57% Upset Chances: 10% Upper Bound: Magus with 62% Lower Bound: Alucard with 52% gotta love red sox --- http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism |
He should've switched the characters' names. --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
Oh, sox --- It may be insulting, but it's true! Now this is entertainment! |
From: Master Moltar | #067 oh That's a little better. --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
*leaps from the topic's airplane, not bothering to check if he equipped his parachute* --- Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
Two matches in and the crew is already failing. This is gonna be an amusing season. --- Yeah, you lost your virginity. Just like a homeless guy staring into the window of an office building means he got a job.- Colonel Alloy |
Never....taking....Magus....again. Knowing me, that probably means I'll take him in every debatable match from now on. Lost causes! --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
The Curse lives on... --- Moltar Status: Bracket: Alucard > Magus (1/1) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Curse you Moltar, so close to going 2/2. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
tag --- ~5th Place in the SP2K9 Contest~ Oh, baby! Sweet! That rocks! when thinking of Krystal, does GMUN's pants get overcrowded? ~ GMUN |
Hoo...wow, Magus. Just wow. --- How could you take the game at all seriously thinking that! "Dude what's Barkley doing controlling the empire" KH: 358/2 Days wooo |
how the mighty hath fallen --- thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris |
...ow |
In the crew's defense, this was a 50-50 match. None of the fourway stats could have possibly predicted this. --- "GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site." -CJayC |
Man who cares about %, half of us got it right! This is not humiliation by any means! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Next match is what separates the men from the boys. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Dang!
Even with the guy's recent history I'd have never expected Magus to be
capable of a showing like THIS. I'm going to have to pick my game up
for tonight's writeup. --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
There was a sign up list? Lame :( --- Ah, you know it's funny, these people, they go to sleep. They think everything's fine, everything's good... They wake up the next day and they're on fire. |
Just for the first two divisions. You'll have a chance to sign up for other matches later if you want, such as Zero's. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
I dont even know where or when the signups are <_< --- Ah, you know it's funny, these people, they go to sleep. They think everything's fine, everything's good... They wake up the next day and they're on fire. |
There isn't a topic for signups right now. --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
When will there be <_<? Yes, I know im being rather annoying atm --- Ah, you know it's funny, these people, they go to sleep. They think everything's fine, everything's good... They wake up the next day and they're on fire. |
When we get closer to the third division, Moltar should post a separate topic for it. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
Link.........79.81% 48367 Thrall......20.19% 12232 TOTAL VOTES...60599 What Happened: Link dominated, but not the domination most expected. Weak domination, you can call it. Why it Happened: Thrall is a bit stronger than we thought? Link is weaker? Who knows! What will Happen: This result means nothing now. Check back in a few rounds to see if Link is in trouble or not. Crew Prediction Challenge - Free point for coming Moltar - 1 Lopen - 1 Tran - 1 Ngamer - 1 Kleenex - 1 Red Sox - 1 Guest - 1 Crew Accuracy Challenge - This is going to be a lot harder with only one point to give out. Today, it's Kleenex for having the lowest Link pick! Kleenex - 1 Moltar - 0 Lopen - 0 Tran - 0 Ngamer - 0 Red Sox - 0 Guest - 0 --- Moltar Status: Bracket: Alucard > Magus (1/1) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
HOT IDEA: What if Accuracy ties were only awarded with a half point? It would greatly increase the accuracy of the rankings, as well as discouraging "x with 50%" hedging. Wow, I love it! --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Man I've been sayin that for years after seein the whole number Petes dominate the accuracy rankings. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Gosh, sounds like we're unanimous on this issue! --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Hyrule Division: Round 1 - Match 3 – (5) Pokemon Trainer Red vs. (12) Revolver Ocelot Moltar’s Analysis Red Thanks Stats Topic for ruining any desire for me to even see Red in this contest. Ocelot Oh Ocelot, you always disappoint me. However, this time will be different! Red is a wildcard. He could have strength, he could be weak. I don’t really care about guessing where he’ll end up though. All I’m concerned with is if he’ll beat Ocelot here. I’m going to say yes. I’m not picking Red here because I believe he’s strong. I’m picking him because I have no faith in Revolver “Hey I lost to Pac-Man” Ocelot. Sure, that was in 2005, but what has Ocelot done since then? I’ll tell you. Barely beat Jill with Cloud in the poll (yes I believe Cloud hurt both, but Jill was hit harder than Ocelot), lost to Marcus Fenix, and then in 2008, after his glorious role in MGS4, he goes and loses to Jill in a fair match. Don’t get me wrong, Ocelot has a good shot here, and I think it will be a close match. However, I’ll back the unknown Red here. Everything Pokemon has been on fire lately, and R/B/Y’s performance in the Games Contest is nothing to brush off. I don’t know about all this Pokemon Trainer/avatar nonsense, but it’s got Pokemon in the name and a Brawl picture so it’s going to get the votes. So in the end, you’re betting on either Red to have decent strength or Ocelot not to disappoint. I think the choice is clear. Moltar’s Bracket: Red > Ocelot Moltar’s Prediction: Red: 54% - Ocelot: 46% Lopen’s Analysis I'll just cut right to the jib, here, cause I'm sure this one was argued to death pre-contest: Pokemon was never about the trainer. No one gives a damn about the trainer. It's about the pokemon. I mean its name isn't even Ash so you can't even hope for the anime to help. (though I really hope no one would actually vote for him based on that!) Pokemon's shown it can be weak in dudes like Lucario. It's shown first gen can be weak in crap like Nidoran F and sadly even Jigglypuff from the vote-in. Course you're gonna have people like KP and ngirl sayin "BUT GOSH EVERYONE I KNOW LOVES HIM" well, can't really say I've ever seen this... and speaking personally, only trainer I'd think about voting for over much anything is the DP trainer. At least I could pick her gender! So, way I see it, dude's got so little Pokemon support that he's probably getting half of his strength from Brawl (hey look at the pic, too), and we all know Brawl fodder. Doesn't help that it's a night match-- which we can't really be sure too much either way how much of an effect it has given that Link was looking like crap his whole match against Thrall and the match afterwards was goth vs vampire in a battle for the day vote-- but if it helps anyone it helps ol Shalashaska the most. Now of course, the opponent is Revolver Ocelot. Dude found a way to lose to Pac-Man. I give Red a slight chance of advancing here just because I don't trust Ocelot as far as I can throw him, but I'd be surprised to see Red outdo Pac-Man on Ocelot... meaning a narrow win or nothing at all, with his reward being a stomping by Mega Man X. Lopen's prediction: Ocelot with 65.12% Transience’s Analysis Oh god, here it is. Nobody has generated more controversy than this stupid Pokemon trainer. Let's get this over with. |
I've
seen people talk about Red being as strong as Crono and as weak as King
Dedede. The argument for him is simple: he is the main character of a
top 10 game on this site, perhaps a top 3 game. The argument against
him is devastating, though: the trainer is pretty much a non-entity and
no one plays the games for him. I would argue that the main character
of Pokemon is your starter, not the avatar you play as. There is a good
reason that half a dozen Pokemon made the contest before he did. Hell,
in 2008 when every Brawl character known to man made the contest, the
Pokemon trainer couldn't find a way to make it. Even Lucas made it! His
game never even came out in this country! I subscribe to the idea that this guy is a joke. He could get absolutely devastated here and he has zero chance against Mega Man X. However, we're talking about Revolver Ocelot. Ocelot confuses the hell out of me. I pick him wrong every contest. This is a guy that gets MGS4 and somehow gets weaker. This is a guy that lost to a mouth. This is a guy that lost to Marcus Fenix. If Ocelot ever actually lives up to his MGS4 billing as supervillain, he would destroy Red and give MMX a decent fight. For whatever reason though he hasn't done it. If you ask me who I'm picking in a match between Pac-Man and Red, I'd probably go with Red. This site is Pokemon-obsessed enough for this to happen. Ocelot lost to Pac-Man. I don't feel good about the pick at all, but I'm going to stick with the blank avatar here. If nothing else, Red has Brawl. That has to mean something... right? Sure, he sucks and no one cares about him at all, but Nintendo fans are crazy. They'll support anything. Let's just put my prediction in before I change my mind and take Ocelot to win with like 146% pokemon trainers nobody cares about them I choose hand gesture transience's prediction: Pokemon Trainer Red with 51.99% Kleenex’s Analysis Another match I'm not particularly looking forward too because regardless of who wins this match, the stats topic is going to be a disaster. On the bright side, it will be interesting to see what Pokemon's really made of. My prediction? Not much. Now, this is not to say I'm anti-Pokemon or anything, even though I do thing some of the Pokemania is a little much. I think Charizard will probably do well enough for himself, but I'm not feeling it for Red. This isn't to say Ocelot is a paragon of strength - he's embarrassed himself plenty of times in the past, losing to the likes of Pac-Man and Jill, whom he had just beaten the year before. If this were a day match, I might change my tune a bit, but I just don't feel good about Red amounting to much. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe he'll be Crono-level! Probably not, though. Sorry Pokefreaks. Bracket: Ocelot Favorites: Red Prediction: Ocelot with 54.56% Red Sox’s Analysis Red > Megaman X is the upset special I have been hyping for the past month, and for several months before that I hyped Red’s enormous potential as a newcomer to contests. This match is the first test of his strength. Of course, this is a debated match on the board, and most people think that Red’s victory over even Ocelot is by no means guaranteed, even though he is heavily favored. So what is Red’s potential? Red is the silent protagonist of Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, a game that is probably the #3 game on this site, based on the games contest we saw last year. RBY is about the same strength as Chrono Trigger, maybe a bit stronger, which suggests that Red could be as strong as Crono- Noble Niner level. He probably won’t be that strong, but the protagonist of any top 10 game automatically has a ton of potential, and the #3 game even moreso. |
On
the flip side, the argument is that people don’t care about human
characters in Pokemon, only the pokemon. To me, this sounds a lot like
the argument for Magus > Crono, but we shall shortly see whether or
not it is true. It does make a lot of sense, which is why I’m giving
Red a laughably huge range for this match (which, based on the first 2
matches, is somehow still going to miss the mark). Prediction: Pokemon Trainer Red with 65% Upset Chances: 5% Upper Bound: Red with 73% Lower Bound: Ocelot with 52% Guest’s Analysis - Janus5000 Because the Pokemon themselves weren't enough for the series, people decided to see how the main character of the original series, Red, would fare in these. We've seen Pikachu and Mewtwo both impress, and some people have high hopes for Charizard (I have him making it to Bowser... but let's not get into that). Can Red equal Pikachu's performance? Does he even need to in order to beat a man who lost to Pac-Man? The answer to both of these is no. In the game, Red is really just an avatar. Presumably, he's a good kid who takes care of his Pokemon and wants to be the very best as so on, but he's not exactly bursting with personality. Unlike, say, Link or Crono (or even Pikachu), however, Red's character is not exactly a compelling design. He's a boy who strongly resembles Ash Ketchum (which can't be a good thing). He's playable in Brawl, but of course his Pokeymans do the actual fighting. Red is essentially relying on nostalgia and a lot of Pokemon fans showing up to vote (I've personally never heard of a Red fan, but surely they exist). Ocelot, meanwhile, has appeared in these contests on several occasions, although they haven't been exactly flattering. In the last battle, he lost in round 1 to Jill Valentine - while she may not be exactly weak, her performance against Sephiroth in the next round indicates that she's at best high end fodder. Even worse, this was -after- MGS4 came out. Since then, the site has shifted more toward the PS3, so that should only help... but by how much, and how much is needed? Personally, I see Red as being fairly weak, since as I've said I've never heard of a Red fan and he doesn't have a lot of appeal aside from nostalgia. I -might- pick him to advance over Jill if he were in Ocelot's place, but only because he would stand out like crazy against Jill, Kratos and Heavy. Putting him on Ocelot's level doesn't seem unreasonable, but even if he were, we must remember that this match takes place at night. While the kiddies will inevitably wake up and whatnot, there will be no after-school vote to boost Red. This early in the contest, a lot of people may not remember that matches are 12 hours, and while later I might toy with the thought of the morning vote being more lopsided than usual, for the third match I doubt it will be. There should be no question who wins at night, either. "What... is your favorite color?" "Blue. No, YELLOW..." Notice how red didn't even get mentioned. Also, Red has six pokeballs. Ocelot's gun has six bullets. Coincidence? Prediction: Revolver Ocelot with 55% Crew Consensus: Crew is tied for this crazy match…I wonder what Ngamer has! |
Lopen has sided with Ocelot. And so, my perfect bracket lives another half-day. --- It may be insulting, but it's true! Now this is entertainment! |
Six Pokeballs, more than enough to catch anything that moves. --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png |
You know Bio I sided with Alucard and low Link percentage, I'd like to think I'm on a roll this year! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
