GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew
Hello once again! For those who are new here, the Contest Analysis Crew is a group of users who know how these Contests work. Our duty is to analyze each match and predict who will win each match and the percentages each character will get. Wish us luck, because we'll need it. Anyway, Introduction time! *On the morning of January 14th, three witches are sitting in a small room enjoying their Tea Party.* Moltar: So, did you two hear? It’s that time of the year again. Lopen: …Indeed, a new game is about to begin. What is the gameboard like this time? Moltar: It’s back to 1-on-1, this time, with 128 characters! Sounds interesting, riiiiiiight? I can’t wait to determine the results using my magic! Lopen: …Hmph, such a child you are, Moltar. Your magic means nothing. The results are determined by the voters. Moltar: Hoh! So you want to challenge me again, Lopen? I’ll create all the results, and you won’t be able to explain them with voters! They will be so unpredictable that everyone will be forced to accept my magic! The number of votes I can create are endless! I am the Voting Witch, Master Moltar! Lopen: …Very well, I, the Witch of Upsets, Lopen, accept your challenge. I don’t expect to be bored. Tran: Hey you two! What are you talking about! Let me in! Let me in! Moltar: It’s another game between Lopen and I. Will you be supporting me again, Tran? Tran: Naaaah, I’m tired of you, Moltar. And I would never be on Lopen’s side! Therefore, I, the Witch of Locks, Transience, will make my own side! Lopen: …Make your own side? I see you’re still a child too, Tran. At least you won’t make me bored though. Tran: Hehe, I love you Lopen! You’re so <cute>! Moltar: I want to invite someone in on this little game between us. Come forth, my finest servant, Ngamer. Ngamer: Ngamer here, at your service, Master Moltar. Moltar: Do you wish to participate in this game with us? Ngamer: Very well, I, Ngamer, will join. Let me warn you though, I am pretty good and figuring out the true results, pukuku. Lopen: …I see, now this is even more interesting. I shall bring a guest too. Kleenex, where are you? Kleenex: I’m right here, Lopen! Lopen: You will participate in this game as well. If you win, I’ll promote you to the rank of a Witch. You can be the Witch of Facts. *giggle* Kleenex: <Good>. That would be an honor! I, the great detective, KleenexTissue, will do my best! My skills are first-rate! Tran: Hey you two! I want to bring someone in too! Um…um…oh I know! I’ll bring in your teacher! Moltar: My teacher? You don’t mean- Tran: Hey red sox, get out here! Red Sox: Yes, Transience? Tran: You’re also going to join our game! I want you to do your best and beat your student. Red Sox: Is that alright with you, Moltar? Moltar: That fine with me! The more the merrier! I’ll make all of you submit to my voting magic! Red Sox: Very well, I, Red Sox, will also join the game. It’ll be more productive than spending time with and constantly getting teased by G- Moltar: Oh, there’s more thing. There will be more people joining us. Arise, Guests! Lopen: …The Guests? They aren’t exactly…the brightest, you know. Tran: Yeah! What’s up with that? They’re as dumb as Goats! Moltar: I think you two will be surprised. They can be really clever sometimes! One guest will also participate in each match of our game. Moltar: Anyway, I hope everyone is ready! I’ve already made a certain man lose the will to fight against me, and now it’s your turn! Prepare to submit to my Endless Voting magic, Readerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrs! AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! *glass breaks* |
Awesome intro as always, whooo Contest Analysis Crew! --- Vote NATHAN DRAKE into (at least) the third round!!! Crash Bandicoot, too? <_< |
tag I mean aww yeah! --- Jinjo for Summer Contest 2008 |
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTvgW2LpEfc You guys got this! --- Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
nice there --- Nominate B.B. Hood for CB IX http://miniurl.org/ntI |
Bayonetta so amazing also where's Ngamer's analysis?! --- Moltar Status: In despair. Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
He's busy sobbing. --- Vote NATHAN DRAKE into (at least) the third round!!! Crash Bandicoot, too? <_< |
Very fine opening, aside from my servant status! And just sent the first mail of the season. --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Awesome Crew time again! I gotta try to remember to look for those guest sign-ups more often this year. --- "Flash runs alongside balefire watching marshmallows stop existing" - War |
All right here we go! --- Put him in the camel clutch, make him humble! Come on in where nightmares are the best part of my day! |
Best intro ever. CBVIII: RISE OF THE GUESTS --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
Hyrule Division: Round 1 - Match 1 – (1) Link vs. (16) Thrall Moltar’s Analysis Link The Hero of Time, Link is back to once again take home the Championship (sorry for the spoilers). Thrall A Warcraft character and Link’s first appetizer for this contest. With the return to 1v1 contests, we’ve got the return of Nintendo domination in the first match. This time, it’s Link who’s going to wreck Thrall. Now, I could end there, but I might as well complain about the contest to take up some more lines. Return to 1v1 and 128 characters = yay New 12 hour format for a bit of a twist = I can live with it Unfortunately, this bracket is weak. It doesn’t look too unpredictable (no I won’t get a perfect), and there is only a small handful of really good matches. There are way too many bad rematches and also way too many interesting, strong, or interesting and strong characters getting wasted. I am a bit excited that we’ve got another contest going, but I’m not as excited as I would be in the good old days thanks to this bracket. Moltar’s Bracket: Link > Thrall Moltar’s Prediction: Link: 86% - Thrall: 14% Lopen’s Analysis Man I'm gettin too old for this ****. I haven't even been in tune with the STATZ discussion for this contest so forgive me if I'm regurgitating things you've already seen. Luckily I'll be keepin these things generally short so it's all good. Uhhhh... let's see, Thrall is a pigman, and Link is skilled in the arts of slaying pigmen. Thus, we have pigman on a roast. Hail Link~ Oh uhh also it's night so Thrall will do better but it's not a Tuesday cause that matters. You could say that since Windwaker is about sailing and Link is roasting pig that this match is a lot like Sailor Bacon. ... yeah that was bad. Lopen's prediction: Link with 82.17% Transience’s Analysis Hey, it's another contest. Hey, it's another character battle. Hey, it's another contest that starts with a Nintendo character pounding the ever-loving hell out of someone. Nintendo going to town in the first match is practically a contest tradition at this point and Link will have no problem doing that against Thrall. This match should range from the low-80s to the high-80s. If Link gets held below 80, it doesn't matter because he wins the contest easily anyway. If Link pushes 90, it also doesn't matter because he wins the contest easily. The only thing I can see being notable here is that it's the first time we'll be seeing Warcraft characters in a 1v1 setting. If Thrall does well, then maybe it means good things for Arthas in his match against Kefka. Realistically though, this is the worst match of the contest. Best to get it out of the way. 12 hour matches fodder like Thrall die quickly transience approves transience's prediction - Link with 86.31% Ngamer’s Analysis Busy with Guru stuff, just use this pick and I'll post the full writeup shortly! Link > Thrall, 85.42% Kleenex’s Analysis Oh hey, 1v1 contest. Neat. I'll start this off by giving props to Overlord Bacon for this format - I was pleasantly surprised when I saw what we were getting and it probably (hopefully) ended up being the best possibly outcome. Sure, it could end up being a complete disaster, but for now things look good. |
As
usual, a nice boring match to start us off. At least we only have to
watch this one for 12 hours instead of 24! Link wins here, obviously,
the only question is by how much. Thrall's been in one contest before
and lost to Vergil. Now, Vergil's probably a little bit stronger than
we give him credit for, but 28% on Ganondorf isn't that great and
Thrall's worse than this. Still, for some reason I can't shake the
feeling that Thrall's going to overperform a bit here, especially
because Link won't have the day vote to further his lead. And maybe
Albion will rally or something, I dunno. Bracket: Link Favorites: Link Prediction: Link with 80.36% Red Sox’s Analysis At last, after 3 years of 4-ways, the 1v1 format returns! There is a twist- 12 hour matches- but this is a good twist that should be able to add excitement to the contest without ruining its legitimacy. The effect should generally be small- looking at previous contests, the difference between any 12-hour segment and the 24-hour results very rarely exceeds even 2%, or a 4% swing between a "night" match and a "day" match. In the vast majority of cases, the effect will be even smaller than that 2%, and as many voters will be voting twice every day, the real effect will be even less than what we get from taking segments of 24-hour matches. First up is Link, our 5-time champion, winner of the 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2008 contests. Naturally he's the overwhelming favorite to win again this year, and this first match will be nothing more than a gauge of his strength. This match will be Link's first 1v1 match in over 3 years, and the first time he's been properly let loose into the main bracket of a 1v1 tournament in more than 5 years. It has been a long time since we have been able to see Link rampage his way through a contest, putting up scores in the 80s, but we will be able to see it again this year. Link's first opponent is Thrall, who looks to be high-end fodder fodder based on his match against Ganondorf, Virgil, and Ratchet, where he put up 25.62% on Ganondorf. How much stronger is the hero of the Zelda series than the villain? Ganon put up a good 47.56% against Vincent in his last 1v1 contest in 2006, and then did not look very impressive in 2007 and 2008, in 4-ways, beating Luigi fairly narrowly with a normal picture and then losing with a sprite picture, and then getting beaten by Gordon Freeman when SFF'd by Samus in 2008. Based on those matches, it seems reasonable to think that Ganondorf was worth about 28-30% on Link in 2007 when he beat Thrall. That would give Thrall roughly 14-15% against Link. However, the standard linear x-stats model that we use in 4-ways (simply pretending it was a 1v1 match between the 2 characters we are trying to extrapolate and ignoring the other 2) tends to overrate the weaker character's strength, and Link is very good at blowing characters out, so I'm predicting him to go a bit higher than that. Prediction: Link with 86.50% Upset Chances: 0% Upper Bound: Link with 89% Lower Bound: Link with 84% Guest’s Analysis - Leonhart Ahh, the much awaited and anticipated return to one-on-one matches. At first, when I heard that the matches were only going to be 12 hours long, I wasn’t really looking forward to it, but the more I thought about it, the more I liked it. A lot of our contest matches have become predictable at this point because we’re so familiar with character trends and whatnot. Now Bacon’s taken that one aspect away to an extent, which helps add an element of unpredictability to it. I don’t think that the differences between day and night matches will matter TOO much, but I could be wrong. I’m looking forward to finding out, at least. Plus, we haven’t had a 1-on-1 contest in over three years, so this should be fun. |
To
the match at hand, this is the most obvious match in the contest
because it’s Link against some guy who lost to Vergil and struggled
with Ratchet. He’s pretty clearly weaker than Arthas and Diablo, who
are just low midcarders themselves. The fact that it’s a night match
might help Thrall not get killed quite as badly because he doesn’t have
to deal with Link’s ASV, but if he gets anywhere close to 20%, I’ll be
surprised. I’m thinking more like 15% here. Actually, this is one of
the matches where I’m glad this is only 12 hours because 85/15 matches
aren’t so interesting for 24 hours. Leonhart’s Vote: Link Leonhart’s Prediction: Link with 87.56% Crew Consensus: Link wins, but you didn’t need us to tell you that. |
whoa red text --- thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris |
And maybe Albion will rally or something, I dunno. I don't give a damn about Thrall. --- http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism |
wall of red --- "Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW |
What's up with all the hatred of first matches? Almost all of them have brought something to the table, 2002: First match ever. 2003: High votals yay! And Link breaks 90% Sp2004: Games for the first time! 2004: CATS, lol. Sp2005: OK, the one bad one. 2005: Higher votals yay! And Mario starts off strong. 2006: Really high votals, yay! Fall 2006: lol Nidoran Female 2007: Near Upset 2008: Upset 2009: Upset --- "Heh, heh...The wind...it is blowing."--Ganondorf This is Yesmar. |
2007 and 2008 were only interesting because they weren't done by visible seeding, so it wasn't a 1 squashing a 16 or an 8. --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
From: Lightslayer987 | #016 True men rally for Overlord Saurfang. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
From: PartOfYourWorld | #020 If Overlord Saurfang ever got in (I nommed him for the 2008 contest) I'd rally him like crazy. --- http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism |
oh darn, now my link lowballing is just going to look silly --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Oh man, I just realized I have the highest Link prediction. Come on, 90% squash! --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
Donkey Kong over Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!! was not an upset --- thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris |
Sorry lefty, but Punch-Out! - 110 (50.93%) Donkey Kong - 99 (45.83%) Space Invaders - 4 (1.85%) --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Guest sign-up list Link/Thrall - LeonhartFour Alucard/Magus -Mr3790 Red/Ocelot - Janus5000 Price/MMX - Biolizard28 Luigi/Meta Knight - Chaotic Mind Ammy/Shadow - Justin_Crossing Cube/Sandal - nintendogirl1 Drake/The Boss - DpOblivion Sonic/Lightning - Kotetsu534 Cecil/Knuckles - WarThaNemesis2 Ganondorf/Mewtwo - satai_delenn Wesker/Ken - LeonhartFour Kirby/Rikku - MerchantTorneko GlaDOS/Fawful - UltimaterializerX Vivi/Donkey Kong - Zylo the wolf Altair/Liquid Snake - Yesmar Tomorrow's write-ups will probably be posted tomorrow morning (if the contest starts tonight) since I have no classes and I'll most likely be up. --- Moltar Status: In despair. Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Sorry Ngamer, but Tetris - 87.75% (33,605) DK - 61.88% (23,698) --- thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris |
Man a 50/50 split goin one way isn't an upset I'm with Lefty here. Also all that text Red Sox and you misspelt Vergil's name tsk tsk. Awesome intro. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Although "witch of locks" man that actually sounds like, legit. Tranny is a real witch. Burn him burn him. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
wtf Moltar is an Umineko fan Why was I not informed of this --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
W-w-w-wait, Moltar. You made us pigmen? Gosh I don't even wanna play anymore. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Umineko is legion Submit. One of us --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
From: KamikazePotato | #030 I'm full of surprises! --- Moltar Status: In despair. Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Also I find it kind of funny that everyone loved the intro while (at least I think) no one knew what it was referencing. Anyway, ready for the contest to start in 8 minutes! RIght? Right? --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
From: KamikazePotato | Posted: 1/14/2010 8:46:13 PM | #030 wtf Moltar is an Umineko fan Why was I not informed of this Moltar tends to be quiet about his gaming tastes, which I think are awesom --- http://i261.photobucket.com/albums/ii49/superangelo128/Cecilehiadefawesomereduced.jpg |
gaming tastes? we've got 24 hours until we start here. --- xyzzy |
--- (|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08) . /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg |
I said, right? Surely Bacon didn't screw up the dates in...three or so places! --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
For the record, I still have faith --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Whoops --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
Whoo, guess this means I have an extra night to do my writeup! --- Vote NATHAN DRAKE into (at least) the third round!!! Crash Bandicoot, too? <_< |
lol Bacon doesn't know dates. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Okay, so...where is it? It's the fifteenth now... |
Whoo, extra 23 hours to craft the perfect writeup! --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
--- ~Wigs~ A little bit of fake hair goes a loooong way! Happily Married to Alanna82 on Valentines Day 05 |
Thank god the grace period gave me time to see the light and switch to Thrall>Link --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Woooooo,
crew topic! I am another person who has no idea what the intro is
referencing but thought it was awesome nonetheless. I'm rooting for
Leonhart here, a 90% crush would be pretty satisfying to watch. (...no
conflict of interest being a guest myself at all... >_>) --- How could you take the game at all seriously thinking that! "Dude what's Barkley doing controlling the empire" KH: 358/2 Days wooo |
(...no conflict of interest being a guest myself at all... >_>) Guests, unite! --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
tag. --- Shakes Fist! |
*slides into topic on his forehead* --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
