GameFAQs Contests

oh hey good result to wake up to

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" FOR THE LOVE OF GOD
NO ONE CAN BE THAT DUMB" - Haguile

transience | Posted 12/22/2010 6:52:36 AM | message detail
sorry, guys, but I can't hear you over this 1100 vote lead and climbing

CAN YOU HEAR ME NOW?

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thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com
If I were you I'd search B8 for The Show, the cool Ng/yoblazer Contest podcast!

dammit
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xyzzy

2010-12-22 16:29:06
49.97%

50.03%

42

36097

36139

72236



The 16:29 Update. Never Forget.


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thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com
If I were you I'd search B8 for The Show, the cool Ng/yoblazer Contest podcast!

Majora's Mask is winning this contest.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

From: The Mana Sword | #205
Majora's Mask is winning this contest.

go ahead and pick that I'd love to beat you

uh i mean

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When you have a conversation with me odds are you are having a conversation with a more intelligent person, so you should exercise proper respect, right? ~Vlado

woo, had to send in two analyses!
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xyzzy

I don't know what to pick!

Moltar isn't getting a writeup until tomorrow tbqh.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

I just sent in one with two predictions, not too hard!
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Two predictions psh.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

I'm still 95% on Majora's Mask taking this. you don't get a huge push like that and then blow the match.
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xyzzy

Sad thing is even analyzing both matches my write-up is probably still gonna be shorter than anyone's this side of AKJ's.

How do you guys do it.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

wow lopen just for that I'm gonna go back and pretend to look at stats for once

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"Luster, you are a delight" ~NGamer
"Yes, yes I am." ~ Luster Soldier

I am loving this result right now. Not really sure if I have the guest spot or not, since I was the first to call "Majora's Mask-Brawl" but BT called FFX-Brawl before that. Sending in an analysis just in case, but nowhere near the wall of text I submitted last time.
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Currently playing: Kirby's Epic Yarn

Callin dat bluff
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Finals: Round 7 - Match 127 – (2) Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs. (1) Final Fantasy X or (1) The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask

Moltar’s Analysis

Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Round 1 - 83.26% on Mario Kart DS
Round 2 - 76.44% on Valkyria Chronicles
Round 3 - 72.90% on Pokemon DPP
Round 4 - 51.08% on Super Smash Bros. Melee
Round 5 - 52.75% on Twilight Princess
Round 6 - 54.43% on Fallout 3

Fallout with a very big overperformance

Final Fantasy X
Round 1 - 77.46% on Viewtiful Joe
Round 2 - 70.83% on Borderlands
Round 3 - 65.66% on Golden Sun
Round 4 - 63.07% on Final Fantasy IX
Round 5 - 56.81% on Resident Evil 4
Round 6 - ~50.00% on Majora’s Mask

or

Majora’s Mask
Round 1 - 83.40% on Wii Sports
Round 2 - 67.10% on Chrono Cross
Round 3 - 55.95% on Pokemon GSC
Round 4 - 56.79% on Wind Waker
Round 5 - 57.70% on Metal Gear Solid 3
Round 6 - ~50.00% on Final Fantasy X

I don’t even know what this is or what’s going on anymore

Where do I begin? Right now, FFX and MM are in a bloodbath. MM surged into the lead in the afternoon, but now FFX looks to be making a comeback. As you can see, we’re definitely in “Final week of the contest” mode where nothing makes sense. Fallout breaking 45% on Brawl makes no sense, and Majora’s Mask doing this well on FFX is just as screwy.

That makes this final match very hard to analyze. Brawl did manage to beat TP by a small margin, but it’s still getting anti-voted like mad. This means that an FFX victory (assuming FFX is stronger than TP) or even a MM victory (if TP and MM are around the same strength and MM being boosted because it is the last remaining ZELDA or whatever) is very possible. If a strong, but not TOO strong game like Fallout 3 can come close to Brawl, then games with real strength like FFX and MM can beat it.

Still, in terms of plain strength, Brawl is the favorite to win this contest. I guess I’ll roll with it for now, but at this point, I’m expecting screwy things to happen, no matter which game wins the FFX/Zelda MM match today.

ps - Majora’s Mask > Brawl > FFX

Moltar’s Bracket: Brawl wins

Moltar’s Prediction: Brawl - 50%



Lopen’s Analysis

Well I figure may as well account for both possibilities cause as I write this I'm not sure who'll win and I won't have time to write it later. Also as you've noticed I'm quite burnt out on this contest-- not even really getting into this "epic showdown" between FFX and Majora's Mask.

But anyway I figure if I analyze for two matches it'll all work out.

Case one is that Final Fantasy X comes back. In that case, thinkin that either the so called Brawl backlash takes effect (uncertain) or that FFX is just straight up stronger than Brawl. 55% on Fallout 3 just isn't very impressive, and something I think FFX could top pretty easily, so Brawl should be exposed as a fraud that just beats on its Nintendo brethren very efficiently.

Now the second case is that Majora's Mask wins. In that case, Brawl SFFs the bastard like it did Twilight Princess and any "Brawl backlash" factor would easily be countered by the "ZELDA ALWAYS WINS" factor. In which case Brawl wins. It inexplicably ends up closer due to being a final match but it's still kinda clear cut.

Man that still wasn't very long, and probably biased (FIGHT THE POWER). Oh well! See you guys next contest! Or... not. We'll see. Sorry if I was a downer or not as crazy as usual but it's harder for me to pull random factors out of my ass to hype random upsets for game contests cause we have less data-- also my "stupid fanboy factor" is lower for games in general... ahem enough farewells, BURY, STEADY SWORD.

Lopen's prediction:
Final Fantasy X over Brawl with 50.82%
OR
Brawl over Majora's Mask with 51.14%

Transience’s Analysis

FFX/Brawl

Okay, so I'm writing this when FFX is slowly coming back from a 400 vote lead. I don't expect this match to happen but just in case, here it is!

If FFX wins this there is no way the Zelda fans let it survive. They will want blood. Brawl with strike it down with great vengeance and fuuuuuuuuuurious anger. Brawl's antivoters have nothing on a Final Fantasy game killing the suddenly beloved Majora's Mask.

Stat-wise, Brawl looks to be worth about 52% on FFX. The only outlier is that Fallout 3 match but I think we can ignore that one a little. I dunno, the ends of contests are always weird. Brawl takes this though, it's stronger than FFX and I refuse to bet on Square over Nintendo in a final. (Ironically, I picked FFX to win the contest. oops.)

transience's prediction: Super Smash Bros. Brawl with 52.74%



FFX/Majora’s Mask

Did you see how fast Majora's Mask came back today?

It went from 1400 votes down to winning in four hours. 4chan apparently got behind it. It passed FFX without blinking and then just stopped gaining, as if to say that it didn't really matter how much it won by. If FFX tries to make a push back here, Majora will just counter with however many votes are needed. Without outside intervention, FFX probably takes this.

FFX is an easy game to rally against. Final Fantasy in general is a series that's pretty easy to hate on. You know what else is easy to hate on? Super Smash Bros. Brawl. That game redefined hype (you must recover, etc) and ended up letting a ton of people down. It also pleased a lot of people but the people involved here are the hardcore types. Those people push back against stupid amounts of hype like that.

If Majora's Mask -- a game that's gotten tons of buzz over the last year -- can be on the good side of a rally against an equal (or stronger) game, why can't it beat Brawl? It's going to absolutely crush Brawl early on and it probably won't ever let up. This isn't quite on the level of L-Block but I know a bandwagon when I see it. Majora's Mask has gotten that level of buzz over the last week. Check out the leaderboard standings and tell me who the cool game to rally behind is.

Congratulations, GameFAQs, for going against the grain and pushing a Zelda game to victory.

transience's prediction: The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask with 53.78%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Well, here we are. The end of the road. Its been a long two months - for some reason this contest has felt longer than other ones to me for some reason. But that's not important. What's important is the finals.

As I write this, it is currently 8:11pm EST. Majora's Mask has a lead of 353.

Here's how I see the end of this match (and tomorrow's match) going down. Right now, Final Fantasy X is the "bad guy". Final Fantasy always wins, blah blah, all that jazz. I don't think it stands a chance against Brawl tomorrow if it pulls out a win. Many will see it as fishy and blame fanboys and Brawl will roll all over it. If Zelda wins however, it's going to have a lot of momentum going into tomorrow. This is huge, because it'll stymie the early Brawl vote and I'm pretty sure it'll push it to victory. I'm equating this to how Cloud/Snake ended up in back in 2008. Difference here is that the gap between Brawl and Majora's Mask is far less than that between Link and Snake, so I don't think Majora will fizzle out after 8 hours.

This is, of course, a gut feeling and I have no legitimate way to back it up. But I think I'm right. Brawl seems to have enough dissenters that the voters will allow Zelda to win, if the chance is given. Final Fantasy has too big of a stigma attached to it, for better or worse, to allow that to happen.

UPDATE: It is now 8:17pm EST and Majora's Mask has a lead of 340. OH MAN.

The long story short is this - if Zelda beats FFX, Zelda wins the contest. If FFX beats Zelda, Brawl wins the contest. I don't think FFX has much of a chance here either way (sorry Leon).

So, in a Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs. The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask match:

Kleenex's Prediction: The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask with 52.17%

In a Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs. Final Fantasy X match:

Kleenex's Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Brawl with 52.77%



Applekidjosh’s Analysis

And after all this, we've got the lamest final possible imo. At the point I'm writing this I still don't know if Majora or FFX won that semifinal match, but it doesn't matter. Neither of them have the strength to beat Brawl. Smash Brothers Brawl is the champion. Like we all expected, Brawl vs Melee was the "true championship" way back then. Thanks to the rest of the crew and especially Moltar, I had a lot of fun with this.

AKJ says Brawl wins against whoever, 53.00%



Guest’s Analysis - TsunamiXXVIII

RAR ZELDAFEAR!

Seriously, I think we're dealing with a severe nostalgia filter here. In retrospect, the idea that an N64 game would win it makes perfect sense, especially due to the fact that the PS1 was almost completely defunct already by the start of the period that this contest deals with. Let's review:

2004 Games Contest: Final Fantasy VII, a PS1 game, wins
2009 Games Contest: Ocarina of Time, an N64 game, wins

Both of these systems are from the same generation, which clearly resonates as the Golden Age of Video Gaming in voters' minds.

Majora's Mask with 52% of the vote



Crew Consensus: Is...is there even a consensus here?

Leon's gonna go off the board and give FFVIII the win.
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GranTurisMo - God's Tiniest Man - Great Thorn Monkeys!
Member of the merSHINEsess Nation since 7/15/09

Brawl vs Majora's Mask

This FFX/Majora match is seriously the best in many years, and a perfect example of how there's nothing better than a no gimmick 24 hour 1v1 poll between two entrants of strength. (Not to say that we need 24 hour setups all the way through, just that if they were extended to one more round this current format would be perfect!) As I write this there's a half hour left and MM's lead is hovering around 200 votes, so I'm going to go ahead and award it the win.

Now then. It's pretty clear to me that the strongest entrant in this bracket was Brawl, and by a decent margin. (You could make a good case for Melee as well, indirectly, but that's a debate for another time.) I'd say that purely in terms of legitimate strength, TP would be a little bit ahead of MM, with FFX sliding into the middle area. But it doesn't matter. Ever since 2007, the end of brackets have meant increased votals and increased rallies and increased insanity to the point where you have to throw stats and previous results out the window in favor of trends. And here are the 2010 Final Week trends as I see them:

* Brawl is "the bad guy". Nintendo fans are upset that it KOed their beloved Melee and Twilight Princess, non-Nintendo people are upset about a company mascot party game going way too far in the bracket, and everyone is kind of stepping back and going "wait, THIS is going to win Game of the Decade? the thing that's only been around two years and didn't have nearly the impact that Melee did? I'm not so sure about that..."

* that trend combined with Nintendo/Square dominating all the other final slots turned Fallout into "the Snake" of this Contest, but unlike Seph Brawl just had too much natural strength to be overcome, so we don't have to worry about that any more

* Majora has become "the underdog hero" of this Contest. which is completely ridiculous given Link's history on this site, but true nonetheless. it had to run a very difficult gauntlet to reach this spot (whereas FFX was practically handed an entire quarter of the bracket), but it overcame long odds to be here and has now slayed the beast aka the war machine called "Final Fantasy always wins!' Majora's going to finish with 50,000 votes in a 50/50 match, against Brawl only managing 46k in what should have been a cakewalk! it's entering this final with enormous goodwill both on the Board and on the site as a whole after being pushed to one of the biggest bandwagons we've seen this side of L-Block. that's... very hard to bet against!

Summary: Brawl deserves a 53% win as it's that much stronger than MM/TP/FFX under normal circumstances. But these circumstances are a long, long ways from normal, and with everything trending against Brawl, Majora's Mask will complete this improbable upset run. (Though a day vote favorable to Brawl will make this result seem more in doubt than it actually was.)

The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - 50.47%

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thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com
If I were you I'd search B8 for The Show, the cool Ng/yoblazer Contest podcast!

Shucks, no thoughts from Leon.

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thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com
If I were you I'd search B8 for The Show, the cool Ng/yoblazer Contest podcast!

take that applekidjosh
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

It's also worthy to note that—while this may change—it doesn't seem like Brawl will have outside help supporting it like Zelda Universe has for Majora's Mask. The "rally" topic on the Smash World Forums was quickly locked with the comment "Winning this isn't even worth talking about. It's GAMEFAQS."

Brawl will have to do pretty damn well for it to win, in my opinion.
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This signature is clever.

Majora > Twilight Princess?

well now don't I feel sheepish

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"Luster, you are a delight" ~NGamer
"Yes, yes I am." ~ Luster Soldier

Fist time ever I see an analysis that crew wasn't sure who the 2nd game would be!
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~

That's probably a good thing for Brawl that its rally topic on SWF was shut down. That board would vote Melee > Brawl like 90-10, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if Majora got a majority of the rallied votes from there.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

I like this. At the moment, Majora's Mask sits at 51.69%. Given the Crew's predictions, anything from 51.24% to 52.08% results in me finally getting an accuracy point at the best possible time. Because combined with red sox being the only one to pick MM yesterday, that would give the Guest Clan two accuracy points in the short time since the last update...where they trailed Moltar by 1.5. Guest Clan wins!
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Currently playing: Kirby's Epic Yarn

Oh, wait, that's right. NGamer isn't actually part of the Crew anymore. You know, I never even really noticed that. I just happened to be catching up on back-episodes of The Show, and got to the one where NGamer is complaining about AKJ replacing him. So that means that I actually had the lowest Majora's Mask prediction, and so anything other than MM getting to 52.09% gives the Guest Clan the Accuracy Challenge win.

(Or Brawl actually winning, but we all know that won't happen.)
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Currently playing: Kirby's Epic Yarn

This depresses me. Out of all the Zelda games, I honestly couldn't stand this one. I hate any game with time restrictions. And I was like 10 when it first came out, so the creepiness factor deferred me to.... well games less creepy.

Crew Predictions - 111/126

What Happened: Brawl beat Fallout and MM upset FFX

Why it Happened: People really don't want Brawl to win, which may explain the big overpeformance from Fallout. People also really don't want FFX to win, which may explain the upset Zelda pulled

What will Happen: I have a feeling MM will beat Brawl

Crew Prediction Challenge - almost done

Tran - 111
Moltar - 109
AKJ - 106
Kleenex - 105
Leon - 105
Lopen - 105
Guest - 102



Crew Accuracy Challenge - Lopen gets the point for Brawl and red sox gets the point for Zelda MM

Moltar - 20
Guest - 19.5 (GfK: 1, BT: 2, CM: 2, Kotetsu: 2, dragon: 1, NGamer: 1, Ultima: 2, TRT: 1, Greyfeld: 1, Mr3790: 1, Big Bob: 0.5, pjbasis: 1, Chris: 2, Luster: 1, red sox: 1)
Tran - 18.5
AKJ - 17.5
Kleenex - 17.5
Leon - 16
Lopen - 13
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Moltar Status: 284 Points - Vote: Zelda MM
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

I think the Guest just won the Accuracy Challenge.

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DFF

Man I can't believe Josh and I are going to be tied in BOTH categories.

This is ridiculous.

Someone better get Majora's Mask back up to 52%.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Black Turtle win to happen. 5,000 dead brackets. Want that on your damn conscience, Zelda apologists?

TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 12/23/2010 10:41:06 AM | message detail
You know, I never even really noticed that. I just happened to be catching up on back-episodes of The Show, and got to the one where NGamer is complaining about AKJ replacing him.

Yup, Moltar kicked me out so someone else would have a chance to win this year. Can't say I blame him, really.

So that means that I actually had the lowest Majora's Mask prediction, and so anything other than MM getting to 52.09% gives the Guest Clan the Accuracy Challenge win.

Three cheers for the Guest Clan!

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thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com
If I were you I'd search B8 for The Show, the cool Ng/yoblazer Contest podcast!

"So someone else would actually have a chance."

It was by my good graces that you were even allowed to be tied for first last contest!
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Black Turtle win to happen. 5,000 dead brackets. Want that on your damn conscience, Zelda apologists?

you were probably kicked off for always being late!

Guest Clan got wrecked in the Prediction Challenge, aka the one that matters
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xyzzy

My .5 won the Guest Slot!
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http://card.mygamercard.net/Mach+Tornado.png

Doesn't Guest Clan always get wrecked in Prediction Challenge, or has it only been the past 2 seasons that's happened?
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

Yeah, Crew is never going to be close in Prediction since people always sign up for matches featuring their favorites and pick them to pull off impossible upsets.

Accuracy is where it's at.

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thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com
If I were you I'd search B8 for The Show, the cool Ng/yoblazer Contest podcast!

Well for accuracy, since only 1 person gets the points, it's easier to win with a lot of upset picks (and a lot of win by defaults)
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GranTurisMo - God's Tiniest Man - Great Thorn Monkeys!
Member of the merSHINEsess Nation since 7/15/09

There have been years where the guests have kept up with me at least!
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

yep, it goes both ways. you make outlandish picks, you get lots of accuracy points and miss a lot of matches.
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xyzzy

Predictions for the next round will be very interesting.
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GranTurisMo - God's Tiniest Man - Great Thorn Monkeys!
Member of the merSHINEsess Nation since 7/15/09

Oh man I have to send in an analysis for tomorrow.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Black Turtle win to happen. 5,000 dead brackets. Want that on your damn conscience, Zelda apologists?

are we doing this? crap
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xyzzy

if you're going to do a Link vs. Santa write-up, don't e-mail it to me. Just post it in the topic

not going to count for anything though
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Moltar Status: 284 Points - Vote: Zelda MM
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Whoaaaa, we're seriously going to cover this? Hadn't even considered it, but heck, I guess why not!

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thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com
If I were you I'd search B8 for The Show, the cool Ng/yoblazer Contest podcast!

pft don't ruin the fun for the fans, Moltar!
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GranTurisMo - God's Tiniest Man - Great Thorn Monkeys!
Member of the merSHINEsess Nation since 7/15/09

Lopen's analysis

HO HO HOLD IT. Who the god damn is gonna vote against Santa!?

Probably that rebellious 14-17 age group, with a little of the 18-20 age group.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3864

Everyone else is gonna give Santa his time in the sun, right? Right? So let's add 19.11 to 24.88 (we round up 18-20 to account for the deviants in the other groups) and that's Link's percentage.

Ha ha ha... nothing says Christmas spirit like cold hard NUMBER CRUNCHING.

Lopen's prediction:
Santa with 56.01%
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Guest Write-Up: Sir Chris

Ho ho ho fans of the crew, a merry christmas eve (close enough) to you and your loved ones. It is that time of the year: The one matchup that Link cannot win.

Santa, the man, the icon, the legend. He is beloved by billions all across the world, who is Link? Who cares, no one will anti-vote Santa.

...

No one.

Santa wins with 65.23%

book it.
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Sir Chris hails Black Turtle as the best guru in all the land.
http://cishir.blogspot.com/

Kleenex's Analysis

I'd wait until later to post this, but I'm going out tonight.

Santa's a fat, old guy with a beard. Link is kawaii~. He also wears green, and everyone knows green is a much better color than red.

Santa may have appeared in beloved games such as Secret of Mana and Santa Claus Saves the Earth, but let's be realistic here. Santa Claus Saves the Earth isn't a game anyone played. Nobody knows who this dude is. It doesn't even have an entry on vgcharts. It sold 0 copies. Even his cameo in Secret of Mana isn't enough to help him beat out Link.

I don't even know who nominated this joker, or how he got into the contest in the first place. I was under the impression that we weren't doing joke nominations this year. Oh well, more fodder for THE KING.

Kleenex's Prediction: Link with 88.88%
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Black Turtle win to happen. 5,000 dead brackets. Want that on your damn conscience, Zelda apologists?