GameFAQs Contests
Game of the Decade Contest Analysis Crew - Part 6
(worse... or made it better!?) --- GranTurisMo - God's Tiniest Man - Great Thorn Monkeys! Member of the merSHINEsess Nation since 7/15/09 |
Northwest Division: Round 3 - Match 111 – (1) The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask vs. (4) Pokemon G/S/C Moltar’s Analysis Majora’s Mask Round 1 - 83.40% on Wii Sports Round 2 - 67.10% on Chrono Cross Good performance from MM Pokemon GSC Round 1 - 73.28% on Advance Wars Round 2 - 70.86% on Mario Kart Wii Good performance from Pokemon This is shaping up to be a good match worth a lot of points. Before the Contest, one look at the 2009 contest would tell you that Pokemon would be the favorite. RBY, MM, and GSC were all in the same match, and GSC still nearly beat MM despite RBY sucking up over a quarter of the vote. If you think more RBY fans would vote for GSC if it weren’t there, then Pokemon wins against Majora’s Mask easy. Now we look at this contest, and it looks like Majora’s Mask getting crushed against Pokemon RBY last year was just RBY being a beast. Majora’s Mask has looked great so far this Contest. Pokemon looks good too, but everyone expected that. Basically, in a match were it was expected that Pokemon would have an easy win, Majora’s Mask has gotten us to take it as a legitimate threat here. Despite MM looking good, Pokemon is still the favorite in my eyes. Zelda may be a 1-seed, but Pokemon looked to be the stronger game in the past and still looks to be the stronger game now. Zelda has sold me on it competing with Pokemon, but it hasn’t sold me on winning against it. Moltar’s Bracket: Pokemon GSC wins Moltar’s Prediction: Pokemon GSC - 51% Lopen’s Analysis Really, we've seen nothing to insinuate that Majora's Mask has all that much strength. ZELDAFEAR is somethin we should all think about, but I don't think beating down Chrono Cross or Wii Sports is anything we should take to the bank. In fact, give me GSC's slaughter of Mario Kart Wii as the most impressive of the three, SFF be damned, even forgetting the fact that we had a contest last year where GSC looked real legit. Yeah, this could go either way, but I think Pokemanz GSC is the safer pick here... and well, LOPEN UPSET SPECIAL + ZELDA just doesn't gel anyway. Lopen's prediction: Pokemanz GSC with 54.56% Transience’s Analysis This is possibly the match of the contest so far but I have a hard time saying anything about it. RBY murdered Majora's Mask in 2009 and GSC wasn't far behind RBY last year, beating Metal Gear Solid in the daytime. On the other hand, Majora's Mask just feels like it should be more popular than GSC and has had some pretty convincing performances this year. It's tough to know what to make of Chrono Cross but it shouldn't be that weak. Majora doubled it. I'm feeling pretty good about GSC just because I am going to doubt Majora's Mask until it gives me a reason to think otherwise. Prove it to me, Zelda. transience's prediction: Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal with 53.33% |
Leon’s Analysis Well, this has certainly turned into a bigger match than I thought it would. G/S/C was a pretty heavy favorite pre-contest, but MM’s strong showing against Chrono Cross last round coupled with two merely “average” Pokemon performances has people getting hyped up about this one. As an aside, I’ve heard people kinda excusing Pokemon’s performances by saying that it doesn’t really blow anything out, but its strength will still show when it faces the big boys. Yet I don’t hear these same people making the same defense for FFX, for some reason (Well, I think tranny’s said something along these lines before, but whatever)! Anyway, I admit I was one of those people who didn’t give Majora’s Mask a shot here before the contest. I thought it was way overrated, and it was the black sheep of the Zelda series. Still, being the black sheep in the strongest series on GameFAQs will still take you quite far, obviously. I still think G/S/C’s the favorite here; that match last year where G/S/C did really well on MM despite R/B/Y in the poll is still hard to ignore, but I’m giving Majora’s Mask a solid chance at winning since 4-ways obviously don’t translate perfectly. I suppose it just depends on how strong you believe Chrono Cross really is. That’s the only really legit match worth anything we’ve seen between these two so far. I wonder how many people on the Crew are going to stick with Pokemon or flipflop to Zelda here. Leonhart’s Embarrassing Confession of the Match: I’m kinda rooting for Majora’s Mask to win this one just so it can lose to Wind Waker next round! I’m not sure why I even care so much about a match between two games I’ve never played! Leonhart’s Vote: Majora’s Mask. Leonhart’s Prediction: Pokemon G/S/C with 52.25% Kleenex’s Analysis I could probably do a huge writeup of why Zelda should win or why Pokemon should win, but I won't because A) I'm lazy, B) everyone else will, and C) I really have no idea which way this match will go. This is the second biggest match of the contest (Melee/Brawl being #1, obviously), and likely decides one of the semifinalists for the bottom of the bracket. Both games have looked pretty good in their matches, so that's not gonna help here. Picture isn't going to matter either, as much as some people might like to believe it will. The only think that might tip this match one way or the other is the timeframe. The night is probably going to be a little more kind to Pokeman than it is to Zelda. So I'm guessing Pokemon wins, though I'll be rooting for Majora. Kleenex's Prediction: Pokemon G/S/C with 51.17% Applekidjosh’s Analysis Man this sucks, I give up. How could we get burned by SotC not once, but twice? Fool me once, etc. So in my opinion Majora's Mask vs Pokemon Crystal is the most interesting match of the contest after Brawl vs Melee. This is a direct chance to test what kind of wackiness went on back in the dark ages of 4 ways. I'm a little worried, maybe it's Board 8's weird tastes in the back of my head but I get the feeling Majora's Mask has the same kind of "art" love that SotC does... and all GSC has going for it is being a stronger game. OH WELL TIME TO CHARGE BLINDLY IN AND TRUST THINGS AKJ says Pokemon > Majora with 57% Crew Consensus: Pokemon sweep over Zelda...what? |
oh no --- 2010 Game of the Decade Contest - 149/176 points - Today: Metal Gear Solid 3 / Metal Gear Solid 4 http://backloggery.com/articuno2001/sig.gif |
Crew curse powers.... activate! Form of - a MM landslide! --- "All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us..." |
yeah I expected that. we're a slave to past results and we'll doubt Majora until it makes us look bad. let's see how it does. --- xyzzy |
Crew cosplaying as a ref making an important call in the Super Bowl. --- Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world! |
Thanks for helping me with the Oracle and battle pick, guys! --- Clannad love! www.board8.wikia.com |
Surprise Black Guest Analysis - TheKoolAidShoto Screw the Crew, Pokemon got this s*** KAS says: MM > G/S/C with 50.01% --- I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. |
From: PartOfYourWorld | #357 Y-Yoblazer... --- "oh god do not search google images for "shaved bear" without turning safesearch on first" - Dauntless Hunter |
And yes, my write-up contradicts my % prediction on-purpose. Gotta keep that Crew Curse alive. --- Around here, I'm the father, the son, and the Holy ****ing Spirit all rolled into one - Red Crow |
what happened to all our guests anyway? I guess doing 4 or 5 writeups in 3 months is too much for you guys --- xyzzy |
From: transients | #362 If I signed up for the Guest I would've just picked Golden Sun over FFX or something Is that what you want? --- DFF |
better than nothing! --- xyzzy |
Psh I woulda done my guest write-up. |
Pokemon
is awesome. Let me repeat this: Pokemon is awesome. I love Pokemon to
death, and the bad things that G/S/C was able to do to Mario Kart Wii
made me smile. G/S/C is, without a doubt, my favorite pokemon game so
far. It was in an era where I was able to trade with my friends, stay up
all night discussing strategy for a metagame that 99% of the players
didn't even know existed. It will, forever and always, hold a special
place in my heart. To see Pokemon as a while once again so well regarded
on this site when only a few short (read: 6) years ago it was blown out
by Xenogears is incredibly awesome, and I hope it kicks MM's ass,
because frankly I don't like Zelda as much as everyone else in the world
does, even though I do still like it. I was called a madman by some for seeing MGS2 > MGS4, but today has proven that, at the very least, I am a madman with some xstats to back him up. I see the crew has all decided that pokemon will carry the day: I call them fools. The Legend of Zelda is a very, very mean series. Do you know what it does? It wins. and Wins. and Wins. and Wins. and Wins. It is not programmed to do anything different, and only truly popular games are able to carry the game versus them. Chrono Trigger, Smash Bros, FF7. These are the titans of this site that managed to fell many zeldas many times in the past. Is g/s/c one of those? It is possible, and I would love nothing more than to see g/s/c win, it is after all in my bracket for it to gt to the semis, so I have a vested interest in it doing so. But then I look at that picture, see that big "Zelda" logo for all of the site to see, and I wonder: Can G/S/C get the job done? R/B/Y could do it, that's without question. but can g/s/c? Maybe, maybe it can indeed get the job done. It looks like I've got a flyer hee if majora's mask wins, because I am going to be the only stupid bastard stupid enough to pick it. So be it. Majora's Mask with 51.89% All hail Link. --- Sir Chris |
and I am the guest for the match, I just didnt send mine in ahead. --- Sir Chris |
Can you put a "wall of shame" up for all the guests who signed up and didn't submit their analysis? --- http://card.mygamercard.net/Mach+Tornado.png |
I didn't submit for my first one because I was moving, I have an excuse! --- Sir Chris |
Ok Chris, you've convinced me. --- Clannad love! www.board8.wikia.com |
From: Achromatic | #366 Hail. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world! |
I'll write an extra guest write-up to try to make up for the dearth in guest write-ups recently. Last year, Pokemon GSC and MM already fought. MM won with just 53% despite the tremendous presence of RBY in the poll. How big is Pokemon/Pokemon LFF? GSC lost 10% against MGS between rounds, and RBY gained 7% the next round despite the awesome presence of OOT in the poll. So, clearly, Pokemon LFF is big, and much bigger than Pokemon/Zelda LFF. 5-6% sounds about right at first glance, which gives a GSC win with 52-53%. But let's take a closer look. Suppose we had the following damage splits (all LFF, no SFF, so games took equal damage): RBY/MM: 2% GS/MM: 2% RBY/OOT: 4% MGS/FFVIII: 2% Under these assumptions, RBY was disadvantaged by 2% against MGS in round 3, and was thus disadvantaged by 9% in round 2 since it did 7% worse on MGS. Since it took 2% damage from MM, that leaves 7% of damage between RBY and GS. 7% is consistent with LFF damage between Cloud and Sephiroth. So, this gives 4% total damage for MM in the round 2 match, and 8% for GS. That gives a net 4% LFF advantage for MM in the match, which yields.....GSC with 51% in tonight's match. Closer than I expected that analysis to yield at first glance. And I realize this isn't exactly how LFF and x-stats work, but around 50% it's close enough that you can just approximate by adding percentages. Now, that was a very stat-heavy analysis, and the main line of reasoning for the other camp has never been about stats. It's always been intuition and ZELDAFEAR. I'm sure some of us will hate the above stats-based analysis as being focused purely on the numbers (and assumptions, to boot) and being divorced from reality. Voters are not robots. They are humans fully equipped with the capacity to VOTE FOR LINK against their own preferences, under any circumstances. And moreover, my own intuition, if I didn't know anything about contest stats, would say RBY > MM > GSC. So which will it be? Whose cuisine reigns supreme? Stats or ZELDAFEAR? Prediction: Pokemon GSC with 51% Eh, Zeldafear has failed me more than stats have in the past. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
oh god wall of stats brain turning off --- "oh god do not search google images for "shaved bear" without turning safesearch on first" - Dauntless Hunter |
They are humans fully equipped with the capacity to VOTE FOR LINK against their own preferences, under any circumstances. LIAR --- DFF |
I
really wish we could see an argument for Majora's Mask that didn't
consist of "IT'S ZELDA STUPID". we've already seen several times in this
contest that voters are willing to abandon the bigger name if there's a
game worth voting for. Shadow of the Colossus is in the process of
assassinating the entire Metal Gear Solid series right now and Portal
smashed FF12. that doesn't even mention the fact that Pokemon has
already shown itself to be superior to Majora's Mask. Zelda can still
win but I wish people would try harder than this. --- xyzzy |
Pfft I said MGS2 > MGS4 too and no one called me a madm... Alright well... I didn't pick Zelda! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
No Crew Curse, Pokemon nails this. --- ##Alec |
The
only argument that can be made is Chrono Cross >>> Mario Kart
Wii... and there's no good argument for that apart from "site loves PS1
RPGs and MKWii struggled with Phoenix Wright of all things". --- I predict and analyse the Game of the Decade contest here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56817040 |
Majora's Mask vs Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal I don't know if there's ever been a match in Contest history that I've flip flopped over more often than this one. So in lieu of a normal writeup, I'm going to walk you through a little timeline of my thought process. *bracket released; remembers Pokemon killing Majora in R1 of '09* - whoa, I rallied MM to a #1 seed! too bad it doesn't matter- Pokemon's super independent and was obviously going to stand up to Banjo and PD more easily, but that's still too large a strength gap for Majora or Wind Waker to make up *Zelda destroys Shenmue/Wii Sports while Pokemon struggles with GTA/Metroid Fusion* - holy smokes, Pokemon is the ultimate 4way Wonder! I mean I realized Zelda's casual appeal would give it a clear advantage in 1v1s, but I never thought Pokemon would regress THIS far. should have picked MM! *Pokemon lays waste to Advance Wars/Fire Emblem, hangs tough with Galaxy* - uh oh, looks like I underestimated this series after all. it's going to be a tough battle, but seems like Gold should still be a slight favorite in that match *Zelda pounds CC in a night match and Dragon Age, Pokemon gets blown apart by Brawl* - wow, now we're talking! Nintendo SFF has always been brutal, so it makes sense that Pokemon can blow out the lower tiers, but clearly Smash is still a step ahead on the totem pole- meaning so is Zelda, of course! I should have gone with Majora after all And that's where we still stand. I realize D/P isn't the peak of the series, but Brawl isn't exactly Ocarina of Time, either. Gold still has a great chance here due to the Night Match: it's going to win Europe and Australia and kill Asia, but I think Zelda's slim NA and SA advantage will be JUST ENOUGH to get the job done. Go MM, kill my bracket! The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - 50.11% --- thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com If I were you I'd search B8 for The Show, the cool Ng/yoblazer Contest podcast! |
good enough answer for me, Zelda not bad --- xyzzy |
Two awesome matches in row! --- This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists? |
welp --- "You see that, charon? You're not disliked by 90% of the board- only 84%. That's a 6% UotY confidence boost you can take to the bank." -NGamer64 |
Looks like Zeldafear wins this day. Congrats Link! Now, let's see that SSBM/MM final! --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
Yawn. --- Sir Chris |
*wipes tear from eye* Glorious.... --- thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com If I were you I'd search B8 for The Show, the cool Ng/yoblazer Contest podcast! |
NGamer who is your guest for this historic Show --- The Samus Beam Cannon Corollary states that anything that looks, acts like, or is similar to light moves at the speed of light. - KamikazePotato |
Score one for the Guest! --- There is no better video game company out there right now than Square-Enix - Denzokuken |
man this isn't even close! --- "You see that, charon? You're not disliked by 90% of the board- only 84%. That's a 6% UotY confidence boost you can take to the bank." -NGamer64 |
I just noticed I'm ahead of Kleenex by 1 point in our actual brackets, and we both have gsc today I'll take this as a moral victory --- img184.imageshack.us/img184/7595/lovevk5.gif Joker is sick and twisted and must be stoped at all costed what plans do you have in store for Batman anyway |
Wow. You gurus don't seem particularly good at this. --- 5/18/05 Never forget. Never forgive. |
From: FourthDeus | #390 The misses are always a lot louder than the calls. By the end of the contest, barring a spectacular upset, you'll see many of the top Gurus on the overall top 50. --- Yoblazer: http://i32.tinypic.com/zlf1w7.gif Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world! |
Gurus actually did pretty good here! 30% predicted a Majora win in their brackets. But I think he meant to say "The Crew", in which case, yeeeeeep, they sure are dropping the ball lately! (At this point I would normally start to hype up the MM > Wind Waker train, but at this point I think only Leon isn't already standing in line for his ticket.) --- thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com If I were you I'd search B8 for The Show, the cool Ng/yoblazer Contest podcast! |
2/2 in accuracy predictions too whoo --- Sir Chris |
From: Ngamer64 | #392 Darn right, Wind Waker forever! I was actually kind of rooting for MM to win here just so we can see it! --- Support Seifer Almasy (Final Fantasy VIII) for Character Battle IX! http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/9342/banner3seifer.jpg |
Alright Sir Chris, good job picking the right game! Don't know what was wrong with the crew, pokemon looked good this contest my ass. As soon as GSC failed to triple Advance Wars i was pretty sure it wasn't getting past Zelda. Wish i could have seen that match before i made my bracket somehow. *begins bracket-burning ceremony* --- "I just want to see more young black holes" ~ A (lady) from NASA, November 15, 2010 |
So
let's talk about this match. When I filled out my bracket as soon as
they dropped, I picked Majora here without a second thought. Why? I
just didn't remember (or know about?) the 4 way match. After stewing for awhile and checking board arguments I ended up making two changes to my bracket that the board claimed would be "obvious matches" based on the stats - Mario Sunshine > the Halos and GSC > MM. Those were the only changes I made to my original bracket. I know the "shouldn't have listened to the stats/board" stuff gets old and I'm not whining, I just think it's honestly funny. I really should fill out the next contest bracket just using gut reaction. --- When you have a conversation with me odds are you are having a conversation with a more intelligent person, so you should exercise proper respect, right? ~Vlado |
obvious matches" based on the stats - Mario Sunshine > the Halos The stats had Halo 3 winning that with ease. --- DFF |
The
stats topic- and especially the people arguing based on stats- were
solidly behind Halo 3 > SMS before the contest, though the board was
not. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
From: KamikazePotato | #397 then I was reading the wrong topics! --- When you have a conversation with me odds are you are having a conversation with a more intelligent person, so you should exercise proper respect, right? ~Vlado |
Crew Predictions - 99/110 What Happened: SotC takes down another Metal Gear Why it Happened: MGS3 did as expected against Paper Mario. Then, SotC beat MGS4 by a larger margin than it beat MGS2. Why? It's probably a combination of legit strength plus a bit of a bandwagon. What will Happen: Is SotC going to go 3/3 against Metal Gear, or will a night match be its downfall? Crew Prediction Challenge - good job lopen Tran - 98 Moltar - 97 AKJ - 94 Leon - 93 Kleenex - 93 Lopen - 93 Guest - 88 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Lopen gets the point for MGS3 and Lopen gets the point for SotC. Guest - 17.5 (GfK: 1, BT: 2, CM: 2, Kotetsu: 2, dragon: 1, NGamer: 1, Ultima: 2, TRT: 1, Greyfeld: 1, Mr3790: 1, Big Bob: 0.5, pjbasis: 1, Chris: 1, Luster: 1) Moltar - 17 Tran - 16.5 Kleenex - 15.5 Leon - 14 AKJ - 13.5 Lopen - 12 --- Moltar Status: 156 Points - Vote: MGS3 Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
