GameFAQs Contests
Game of the Decade Contest Analysis Crew - Part 6
Leon’s Analysis I’ve heard rumbles of a potential upset in this one here and there, but I just haven’t seen any reason for it. I know FFIX’s not on the same level as FFVII, VIII, and X, but it’s still strong. I don’t see KOTOR having it in it to win this one. Not that it’s not pretty strong, but I just don’t see any way FFIX loses to Halo in a match unless another FF game is involved. But Diablo 2 and Halo 1 have both looked pretty good this contest, so that helps KOTOR’s case a bit, I suppose. Still, 58% on DMC1 (especially after Prime got 65% on DMC3, even if DMC1 is stronger) and 60% on FE don’t give me any reason to believe it can score the upset here. It’s not going to get killed or anything, but the outcome here shouldn’t be in doubt. Leonhart’s Embarrassing Confession of the Match: I actually used PlayOnline a few times when I was playing FFIX. Man, that thing was lame. Leonhart’s Vote: Final Fantasy IX. Leonhart’s Prediction: Final Fantasy IX with 57.05% Kleenex’s Analysis Here's one where there's been some rumors going around about a possible upset. I've got a pretty healthy respect for KotOR, so I'm not going to rule out the possibility, but I'm not going to bite. We've never been able to get a solid read on Final Fantasy IX because it always gets majorly dicked over by bracket placement and Master Hands, both the game and the characters. Of course, the same thing happens next round if it gets there, but you gotta take what you can get. Kleenex's Prediction: Final Fantasy IX with 55.55% Guest’s Analysis - Redtooth This is a fairly straightforward match, at least in terms of the winner. FFIX, even counting SFF in the last contest, is stronger than KotOR. Unfortunately, we have no really "accurate" read of FFIX. You can extrapolate, in this contest, that if the two Phoenix Wrights are equal, MK is just a little stronger than PW, meaning GSC triples PW, which was also tripled by FFIX, making GSC=FFIX. And GSC, according to many, should be greater than MM, WW, MGS and others, meaning FFIX should be at a similar level. But extrapolating tends to be useless, especially when I do it so haphazardly. Also, I find GSC overrated for what it is. KotOR, which should be equal to Diablo II/Halo, and all of those have shown decent strength this contest. Even if FFIX was equal to MGS4, that would still make the match a 55-45 affair. But FFIX is not so strong, not even close. This may not come down to the wire like some of the other matches, but it's going to be a lot closer than most seem to think. I almost want to back KotOR, but that might be too foolish, even for me. FFIX-51.50%, KotOR-48.50% Crew Consensus: FF9 beats Star Wars |
Final Fantasy 9 vs KotOR Final Fantasy IX - 56.39% --- thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com If I were you I'd search B8 for The Show, the cool Ng/yoblazer Contest podcast! |
Oh man did I actually end up with the accuracy point last night --- This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists? |
Man
those predictions are what I would have expected from a night match,
not a day match. You guys did see FF9 lose the ASV to Phoenix Wright? --- DFF |
lol crew you're so dumb --- This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists? |
LOL AKJ --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
I'm the guest for next match, right? I'll get right on that analysis. --- Currently Playing - Zelda: Majora's Mask, Smash Bros. Melee Next Games Up - Resident Evil 4, Okami, StarCraft |
Lmao
my prediction was so bad. I sent it in without looking at any of the
stats at all from the doctor's office waiting room >_> --- This is an alt for Applekidjosh If you're seeing this sig, I'm probably posting from my Droid |
From: Ngamer64 | #252 lol 58 seconds late --- The Gamer In Me "Ike and Ash and co. saw a Yoshi and didn't catch it" - Mer telling us his dream |
and moltar didnt post it D: --- "A board where all the people try hard to be "nice" to each other would be terribly boring, don't you think?" - Vlado |
From: AppIekidjosh | #260 sent it literally 10 minutes before the match started AKJ's Ana'lol'ysis I'm at the doctor, can't check gfaqs, but I think ff9 will win with 62% --- Moltar Status: 144 Points - Vote: KotOR Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
it was an emergency! --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/applekidjosh <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
Man,
KOTOR's ASV has sucked. FFIX is less than half a percent away from
where it was after one hour. I guess being XBox doesn't automatically
give you a good day vote! --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
ASV there's your problem --- DFF |
Look, all my days run together, I don't go to school anymore, and it's 5 A.M. over here, man! I can't be held responsible for this! Still, bad day vote showing. --- Support Barret Wallace (Final Fantasy VII) for Character Battle IX! http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/3834/banner1barret.jpg |
Southwest Division: Round 3 - Match 107 – (1) Resident Evil 4 vs. (4) Persona 4 Moltar’s Analysis Resident Evil 4 Round 1 - 82.15% on Jet Grind Radio Round 2 - 65.69% on Grand Theft Auto: Vice City RE4 with another good performance Persona 4 Round 1 - 63.97% on Braid Round 2 - 50.27% on Dead Rising P4 manages to win it’s fourpack after a crazy match with Dead Rising Congrats P4, you managed to escape what is probably the weakest fourpack of the contest! Your reward? Getting stomped by RE4! Seriously though, this is going to be bad. Vice City wouldn’t have a problem with P4 and RE4 stomped it. Leon gets to walk right to the Division Finals. Moltar’s Bracket: RE4 wins Moltar’s Prediction: RE4 - 69% Lopen’s Analysis In today's BATTLE OF THE FOURZZZZZZZ.... There is... absolutely nothing interesting to see here unless you care to see “just how weak” that FOURZZZZZ pack was. Sorry, I'm just trying to make this match seem hip or something. Anyway I can answer that strength question without seein this match at all: “Pretty weak!” Lopen's prediction: Resident Evil 4 with 72.34% Transience’s Analysis Persona 4 got a tough matchup here. It'll probably hold up thanks to that resilient as hell fanbase, but RE4 is a game that'll be tough to rally support against. It's just got too much respect as an all-time game. transience's prediction: Resident Evil 4 with 68.15% Leon’s Analysis I’m having a hard time getting a feel for what percentage I should go for on this one. FFIX got nearly 69% on Persona 3. We know RE4 is stronger than FFIX (although I think FFIX would put up a surprisingly good number there), but is P4 stronger than P3? I don’t know. I feel like it is though. RE4 got 65% on Vice City. Would P4 beat Vice City? Eh, probably not. Would P4/Dead Rising/TWEWY beat Borderlands or Vesperia? Yeah, there’s a good chance. I’m starting to have a bit more respect for Persona 4’s strength at this point. Let’s go for something between 65 and 70 here, I guess. Leonhart’s Embarrassing Confession of the Match: I love cheesy dialogue that’s so bad it’s good. Leonhart’s Vote: Resident Evil 4. Leonhart’s Prediction: Resident Evil 4 with 67.20% |
Kleenex’s Analysis Persona 4's done well for itself getting to this point, but it's in waaaay over its head tonight. I don't think anyone really believes that Persona 4 has any kind of significant strength, and Resident Evil 4 is a top 5 game in the bracket. At the very least we can kind of compare this to how FFX did against Golden Sun and see how that eventual match might go. Golden Sun definitely beats Persona 4, so RE4's obviously going to have to do better. And I'm sure it will. Will it do a lot better? I don't know. I suppose we'll see. Kleenex's Prediction: Resident Evil 4 with 69.87% Applekidjosh’s Analysis Hey look I'm doing a writeup in time to actually pay attention to it! So first of all let's just congratulate Persona 4 on making it this far. It doesn't have a chance in hell of beating Re4, but I think it's just awesome that it got to round 3. So Persona 4 = Dead Rising = TWEWY? I can't figure out a way to fiddle with stats and make that into anything useful, though. Oh well. AKJ says RE4 > P4 with 69.69 Guest’s Analysis - LinkMarioSamus SO MANY FOURS!!! And oh, lovely, Resident Evil 4, a game which I might actually be playing in a few weeks. Or at least a month, right??? I can dream, can't I??????? Anyways, we know that Persona 4 is terrible terrible fodder that could barely squeak past Dead Rising, though I guess it's worth about 51% there when you consider that that was a day match. Now Persona 4 finally gets to roll a night match...against a game that could be this site's #4 of the decade (RE4 > LoZ: TP yes I'm going there). Ultimately RE4 is going to make P4 look terrible and remind us why it's an upper echelon of this contest in the first place. It'll be underperforming slightly due to the night match (since these are both night games but RE4's day vote is decent versus P4's being bottom of the barrel bad), so here goes: Infected Spanish Townsfolk > Random High School Students with 73% of them left. (aka RE4 with 73%) Crew Consensus: RE4 is the superior 4 tonight. |
Resident Evil 4 vs Persona 4 Glancing through the Oracle thread just now, it seems everyone is taking it for granted that RE4 breaks 70 in this R3 matchup. I can understand why- it looks awesome in that match pic, we're stamping their feet impatiently waiting to board the FFX upset train, and I've always expected SmartVoterFAQs to become a bigger and bigger deal the deeper we get into the bracket. All that being said, I'm not quite sold. Maybe I just have more respect for jRPGs in general and Persona in particular, but I thought the win over Dead Rising was pretty decent, plus I hate the timing of this poll. RE4 is one of the kings of North America, but we're already seen how it can sometimes struggle in the back half of night matches- and that's of course when Persona is at its best. Also P4 > P3, and even though RE4 > FF9, let's remember that FF9 is a Night Vote beast and could also have gotten a weird jRPG SFF advantage in that one. Plus,- Wait a minute, P3 couldn't even manage 30% against FF9 in Europe? Ack, forget you Persona, I'm backing the blowout! Resident Evil 4 - 71.23% --- thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com If I were you I'd search B8 for The Show, the cool Ng/yoblazer Contest podcast! |
Leon with the lowest RE4 prediction, oh I'm so shocked --- No, every man's goal in life is to spread his seed as many times as possible. - A statement Realo actually believes |
Actually,
I knew I should've raised my RE4 prediction after seeing what FFIX did
yesterday, but I was lazy, so whatever. 70%~ was about what I expected
after seeing that. Not afraid of RE4 at all! --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
Portal vs Mass Effect Appears as though everyone is expecting an easy Portal win in that 60% range, and I don't blame them- this game has looked like a monster two rounds in a row. However, even though I've given up hope for a Mass Effect win, I still think it could manage a fairly respectable showing in this one, for a few different reasons. The first is that this match has some pretty favorable timing: ME2 is on people's minds as it begins to pile up Game of the Year awards from several places and strong nominations from all the rest, plus the biggest crowd reaction of the evening at tonight's Spike GotY awards show was for the world premiere of the Mass Effect 3 trailer. (Well, it was either that or Uncharted 3.) The timing also works in ME's favor in that it drew a Day Match. We're not going to see anything as drastic as 24 hours ago when the Xbox faithful pushed KotOR to a straight up win in America, but Portal's strong Euro support makes it a tougher out at Night, so I'm expecting Mass Effect to shave off a little bit of its percentage in the afternoon. And the final reason ME won't get killed is that Portal isn't sporting nearly the kind of match pic advantage it had last time around. Those blue and orange portals were perfect- this attempt is kind of a mess by comparison. Mainly though, I'm just really pleased with the idea that Final Fantasy 12 is flat out terrrrible. Don't wreck my good mood by being even weaker, ME! Portal - 58.53% --- thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com If I were you I'd search B8 for The Show, the cool Ng/yoblazer Contest podcast! |
...So why does everyone think RE4 has the ability to jump out to a huge lead on FFX right away and hold on for dear life? Not seein' it here. --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
From: LeonhartFour | #271 Resident Evil 4 basically going in the early vote with Persona 4 is pretty impressive. It also barely dropped at all afterwards, and that's with P4 being a huge night game. --- DFF |
From: KamikazePotato | #273 That's because RE4 is a night game as well. FFX is a bigger night game than both. But RE4 needs a huge early vote to beat FFX. It didn't get one against Jet Grind Radio, of all things. Although it did get a nice jump out in the Vice City match and dropped enormously the rest of the match. Neither one of those performances gives me the indication that it can dominate FFX with the first hour and hold on for 11. --- Support Barret Wallace (Final Fantasy VII) for Character Battle IX! http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/3834/banner1barret.jpg |
If RE4 doesn't have any kind of lead at the freeze FFX is going to get at least 56%. book it. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 148/164 Today's Matches: RE4 & Portal |
Persona 4 is probably a bigger night game than FFX. Just what kind of trends were you expecting here? P4 is very early vote and night-vote oriented. RE4 basically going even with it isn't bad at all. --- DFF |
Well,
I'm just wondering where people got the idea that RE4 has such a strong
early vote when it's never shown that in any match other than against
GTA, and everything gets a good start against GTA. FFX would get a good
start against GTA. It's going to need more than FFX anti-votes to get
off to that big lead. --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
From: KamikazePotato | #276 No, this is what I expected. Which is why I'm still wondering why people think RE4 can get such a good early vote to beat FFX and hold on for dear life. --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
And
heck, if P4 is so early vote oriented, it should be dropping hard, not
finishing higher than where it started after the board vote. --- http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif |
Golden
Sun didn't get a good start against San Andreas, and you saw what
happened to that early vote when it went up against FFX! Which is why I'm still wondering why people think RE4 can get such a good early vote to beat FFX and hold on for dear life. Looks fine to me. I'm surprised RE4 didn't drop more. Asia is more crazy for P4 than probably any other game, relatively speaking, and it always does well in Europe too. --- DFF |
From: LeonhartFour | #279 Unless RE4 also has a good early vote...? --- DFF |
From: KamikazePotato | #282 Or P4's early vote isn't as good as people think...? It's only had day matches up to this point. Persona 3's board vote against Civ IV was terrible. Yeah, I know they're different games, but their trends likely aren't very different. (And if you argue "brackets," that's kind of a self-defeating argument since RE4 has those) --- http://img.imgcake.com/leonpngpe.png http://img.imgcake.com/squalloweenpngem.png |
It also had a full match last year and had a great board vote then, too, and that was with it not being the main attraction. I don't get what you're trying to say. P4 has had a strong early/board in every one of its matches so far. You can't just go around and say "Well, P3 didn't, so P4 doesn't either." There's a reason for that - P4 is a lot more popular among this board and the early crowd, in case you haven't seen what ranks at the top of every big board ranking list we make! The very simple logic here is that RE4 had a good early vote against SA, and it went about even with the early vote against another game with a good early vote, so it will have a good early vote against FFX, which has had a bad early vote so far. Whether or not it wins is another matter entirely, but I'm not sure why you're trying to deny that. --- DFF |
From: KamikazePotato | #284 I'm pretty sure P3 is pretty big with Board 8 right now as well! But RE4's early vote isn't on the caliber with Nintendo's, which is what it'd really need to be here. And yes, FFX has had a bad early vote, but it's also turned that early vote around in virtually no time at all, so yeah, RE4 would need an enormous early vote advantage. I just don't think it's going to get one. --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
Crew Predictions - 95/106 What Happened: Final Fantasy day Why it Happened: FFX managed to pull off a decent performance against Golden Sun. Nothing too impressive but nothing bad either. Then, FF9 had a bit of trouble with KotOR, but the match was never in question. KotOR is legit, but FF9 is just one step ahead What will Happen: FFX SSF beatdown Crew Prediction Challenge - easy points Tran - 95 Moltar - 94 AKJ - 91 Kleenex - 91 Leon - 91 Lopen - 89 Guest - 86 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Kleenex gets the point for FFX and Lopen gets the point for FF9. Guest - 17.5 (GfK: 1, BT: 2, CM: 2, Kotetsu: 2, dragon: 1, NGamer: 1, Ultima: 2, TRT: 1, Greyfeld: 1, Mr3790: 1, Big Bob: 0.5, pjbasis: 1, Chris: 1, Luster: 1) Moltar - 17 Tran - 16.5 Kleenex - 14.5 Leon - 14 AKJ - 12.5 Lopen - 10 --- Moltar Status: 148 Points - Vote: RE4 Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Argh, I don't even get the satisfaction of seeing myself above Kleenex in the accuracy standings! --- http://img.imgcake.com/leonpngpe.png http://img.imgcake.com/squalloweenpngem.png |
Southwest Division: Round 3 - Match 108 – (3) Portal vs. (2) Mass Effect Moltar’s Analysis Portal Round 1 - 71.47% on Gears of War 2 Round 2 - 59.98% on Final Fantasy XII Portal what a beast Mass Effect Round 1 - 69.57% on Plants vs. Zombies Round 2 - 62.20% on Skies of Arcadia Mass Effect still not impressing anyone. Looks like even after ME2 was well-received, GameFAQs still doesn’t really care for ME1. This match was debatable pre-Contest, but just look at the performances between these games. Portal has easily looked stronger, and I don’t see it having any problem in this match. Will ME do better than FF12? Well...I’ll say they do about the same. Moltar’s Bracket: Portal wins Moltar’s Prediction: Portal - 60% Lopen’s Analysis This match may have been in doubt before last round, but I can't really see anyone going Mass Effect now. You really only need to look at the percentages and the opponents from last round. Portal got 60% on Final Fantasy XII. Mass Effect got 62%... … on Skies of Arcadia. Yeah. This one shouldn't be remotely close, and call me crazy but I think Mass Effect's gonna come out looking a little weaker than FFXII when all is said and done. Well actually I think that'll be consensus but tranny made that absurd bioware strength tiering that one time...! Lopen's prediction: Portal with 62.12% Transience’s Analysis I stupidly have Mass Effect in my bracket here. I am still not entirely sure why. I think I wanted to be daring and different. That said, I have a lot of faith in Mass Effect. It's a lot stronger than it's shown in previous years. ME2 is probably the best pick for GOTY on this website and Mass Effect 3 was just announced last night. (or it's assumed that's what will happen, I'm writing this on Friday) Portal will win, but I think I'd pick ME1 over FF12 at this point. I'd also pick it over KOTOR - I don't care what the stats say. ME is a legit series now. Still, 60% on FF12 vs. 63% on Skies. Not a tough pick here. transience's prediction: Portal with 57.74% Leon’s Analysis Whoo, an easy win for Portal in a contest where it’s been one of the most surprisingly good entrants. It’s surpassed most expectations in both of its matches so far, and I think it’ll do it again here. People were hyping a potential ME1 upset here based on ME2’s popularity, but I never really got that logic. Yeah, I can buy ME2 helping out some, but this game had a long way to go to reach the point where it could win this. And while I want to believe Skies of Arcadia getting 38% on ME1 last round means it’s got decent strength game, something’s still telling me that’s not what it means. Don’t be surprised if ME1 does worse here than FFXII did! Leonhart’s Embarrassing Confession of the Match: I’ve never really understood the “This game is too short” complaint, but then again, I’m a guy who replays the same games a bunch and enjoys playing sports/party games, which generally aren’t too long but have lots of replayability! Leonhart’s Vote: Eh, Portal, I guess. Leonhart’s Prediction: Portal with 62.45% Kleenex’s Analysis SORRY CAN'T HEAR YOU OVER ALL THIS MASS EFFECT 3 Kleenex's Prediction: Mass Effect with 100% Applekidjosh’s Analysis This match is awesome, and might be our best showing of SVF in action. I do wonder if any new game trailers shown last night at the VGAs will come into play, but new game hype doesn't seem to matter nearly as much as we always assume it will. AKJ says Portal > Mass Effect with 56.66% Crew Consensus: Mass Effect 3, son! |
Well, at least I'll get to pass Kleenex in the other rankings! (Also, tranny: FFIX vs. ME1, who you got?) --- Support Otacon (Metal Gear Solid) for Character Battle IX! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/1950/banner4otacon.jpg |
Crew Accuracy Challenge - Kleenex gets the point for FFX and Lopen gets the point for FF9. Lopen gets the point for FF9. Lopen gets the point what --- thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris |
Surprise Black Guest - KoolAidShoto MASS EFFECT 3 WOOOOOOOOOOOT Uh, I mean ... MASS EFFECT 3 AJEOITAJWTATJEKLAJ GET HYPE BOY KAS says: Mass Effect > Portal 99.99% --- Around here, I'm the father, the son, and the Holy ****ing Spirit all rolled into one - Red Crow |
KoolAid going for the inverse Price is Right tactic! Oh man, it'd be so awesome if ME1 actually won this and KoolAid got an accuracy point with a 99.99% prediction. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
stealing the guest spot from KAS since he's had two this round~ Superior Late Guest Analysis Mass Effect 3 more like Portal 2 Portal - 59.57% --- thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris |
AKJ: $450! KoolAid: $451! AKJ: *leans over to KoolAid* F*** YOU! Man, there's been a lot of Surprise Black Guests on the crew lately. Not that I mind! Its always a pleasure to share my wisdom with everyone. --- "You brought your *****, to the waffle hut?" |
Guest Analyst Here to Steal the Show Once Again Roses are red Violets are blue There will be Western SFF, Shepard, THIS HURTS YOU. Portal - 62.46% |
wow you guys are really excited for this new mass effect game. Is the series really that good? --- "You see that, charon? You're not disliked by 90% of the board- only 84%. That's a 6% UotY confidence boost you can take to the bank." -NGamer64 |
Best
series of the generation. I'd have given that honor to Bioshock in
2007, but ME is trending up while Bioshock trended down after its
disappointing sequel. |
it's a first person rpg right? I might try it out after christmas --- " FOR THE LOVE OF GOD NO ONE CAN BE THAT DUMB" - Haguile |
Third person. The view is similar to RE4's. |
LOL ME1 still sucks So much for an ME2-3 boost --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
