GameFAQs Contests

Game of the Decade Contest Analysis Crew - Part 6

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Master Moltar (tc)message detail | delete | filter | #051
North Division: Round 3 - Match 93 – (1) Fallout 3 vs. (5) Batman: Arkham Asylum

Moltar’s Analysis

Fallout 3
Round 1 - 81.00% against inFamous
Round 2 - 74.27% against Deus Ex

Another good showing from Fallout

Batman: AA
Round 1 - 72.51% on Psychonauts
Round 2 - 59.52% against Team Fortress 2

Batman isn’t scared of some Valve game.

TF2/Fable are probably low midcarders and Batman had no problem with them. Still, even a midcard is going to have just a little bit of trouble beating one of the top games of 2008, Fallout 3.

Fallout probably isn’t going to look too great here, though this match should say something about its strength for sure. It’s lucky it’s not in the same division with the stronger Nintendo/Square games because it wouldn’t stand a chance. It’s the top seed in the weakest division in the bracket, and Batman is just another victim on Fallout’s walk to the Elite 8.

Moltar’s Bracket: Fallout 3 wins

Moltar’s Prediction: Fallout 3 - 58%



Lopen’s Analysis

Well time and time again I've expressed doubt about both of these games, and neither one has really been tested yet, but Fallout 3 is looking a bit stronger this contest, and it was a GotY contender as opposed to a TBGotY contender. (Third Best Game of the Year for those keeping score at home)

So yeah, Fallout 3 should win but I bet Batman looks pretty decent. Either one should be Halo food next round though... oh yeah I said it, man! … well, it'll be a night match, maybe not... we'll see when it comes around! Just remember to believe.

Lopen's prediction:
Fallout 3 with 54.44%



Transience’s Analysis

Round 3 time. Batman was equal to AC2 last year and that did pretty decent against Wind Waker... but still, Fallout 3 is game of the generation quality. Granted, this generation sucks for our JRPG and Nintendo-obsessed population, but it's as good as we're gonna get. Fallout 3 should kick off round 3 convincing us that its semifinal trip is secure.

transience's prediction: Fallout 3 with 59.81%



Leon’s Analysis

Finally, Fallout 3 gets a real test to see what it’s worth. I think the few passengers who were on the Batman upset train pre-contest have already disembarked before it wrecks here, but it should still do pretty decently. Still, 2009 games in general haven’t looked that great, and I don’t really think 60% on Team Fortress 2 was all that great either. I dunno, I can’t really get excited about this one because Fallout 3’s path still feels so set. Perhaps Prime or Half-Life 2 can shake some things up and make me care about what it does next round.

Leonhart’s Embarrassing Confession of the Match: I think Batman’s whole “Oh yeah, he can beat ANYONE if you just give him enough time to PREPARE!” stuff is pretty lame.

Leonhart’s Vote: Batman: Arkham Asylum.

Leonhart’s Prediction: Fallout 3 with 61.75%
Master Moltar (tc)message detail | delete | filter | #052
Kleenex’s Analysis

Round 3 time. This'll be a good way to find out just how strong Batman really is. Fallout isn't going to lose this - I probably won't even come close. I'm actually thinking Batman's not worth a whole lot, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Fallout end up looking really good tonight. The fact that it's a night match should help that too, I think. I almost thought about making a terrible "Batman is the night" joke here, but I'm going to restrain myself.

Kleenex's Prediction: Fallout 3 with 62.45%



Applekidjosh’s Analysis

I'm not really getting anything out of this match. Not hyped at all, since I feel like Batman has been overhyped this entire contest and this isn't going to be close. Bring on the next match imo

Fallout 3 with 60.05%



Guest’s Analysis - Chaotic Mind

Fallout 3 nearly tripled Deus Ex, outdoing Batman: AA's R1 score vs Psychonauts. I would take Deus Ex > Psychonauts easily. Yeah this match may have looked debatable pre-contest but not anymore.

Fallout 3 - 60%



Crew Consensus: Fallout is the favorite tonight.
The Mana Swordmessage detail | filter | #053
transience get out of my head
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
Ngamer64message detail | filter | #054
Fallout 3 vs Batman Arkham Asylum

Whooo Round 3! It seems as though it won't be providing quite as many close matches as we thought initially, but I'm still really excited because we've finally eliminated all the fodder and everything from here out should be strength on strength kind of stuff that helps us answer some "very important" questions.

But yeah, not a TON to say about this opening setup other than that I think AA is being a bit undervalued. I guess I just have more respect for TF2 and Fable than most, but hanging 60% on them still strikes me as pretty darn solid. Plus have you SEEN that match pic? I like FO3's propaganda look, but how will voter be able to resist THE BATMAN when he's looking that cool? Unfortunately problems set in with this being a night match, Fallout being the clear SmartVoterFAQs choice, and some possible overlap between these two (which probably sides in the favor of the wRPG from what we've seen this year). So I can't see Fallout having any real problems here, but I still like Batman to keep it under 60!

Fallout 3 with 59.21%

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Lopenmessage detail | filter | #055
click hivemind alert
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
transientsmessage detail | filter | #056
smart prediction alert
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xyzzy
Lopenmessage detail | filter | #057
Dark Knight is gonna dominate the dark night vote this'll be down below 55% in no time
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
G0EMONIMPACTmessage detail | filter | #058
Lopen, how has the crew not taken you out behind the barn yet
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I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain.
transientsmessage detail | filter | #059
we keep him solely because of things like this
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xyzzy
Lopenmessage detail | filter | #060
Come on that wasn't that bad.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
G0EMONIMPACTmessage detail | filter | #061
Sadly, its not even the worst Lopen prediction of the day.
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I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain.
Lopenmessage detail | filter | #062
Oh I thought you were making fun of my pun.

Now you're just being hurtful.

I'm not even that far behind the crew this year!
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
G0EMONIMPACTmessage detail | filter | #063
aw man I didn't even see the pun

why Lopen why
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I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain.
Master Moltar (tc)message detail | delete | filter | #064
Crew Predictions - 86/96

What Happened: WW gets an ugly win over AC2 and Oblivion beats Paper Mario 2

Why it Happened: Assassin's Creed once again shows it's legit with a very good showing on Wind Waker. TTYD also put up a good performance, but Oblivion was just too much for it.

What will Happen: WW in a good position to take Round 3.

Crew Prediction Challenge - punishment for AKJ and 'lol' lopen
Moltar - 85
Tran - 85
AKJ - 82
Kleenex - 82
Leon - 81
Lopen - 80
Guest - 76



Crew Accuracy Challenge - pjbasis gets the point for Zelda and Chris gets the point for Oblivion.

Guest - 16.5 (GfK: 1, BT: 2, CM: 2, Kotetsu: 2, dragon: 1, NGamer: 1, Ultima: 2, TRT: 1, Greyfeld: 1, Mr3790: 1, Big Bob: 0.5, pjbasis: 1, Chris: 1)
Moltar - 15
Kleenex - 13.5
Tran - 13.5
AKJ - 12.5
Leon - 12
Lopen - 9
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Moltar Status: 110 Points - Vote: Paper Mario TTYD
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
AppIekidjoshmessage detail | filter | #065
just wait kleenex

I'll slip something into your drink next time

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LeonhartFourmessage detail | filter | #066
Man, I nearly had 2 accuracy points if it weren't for those darn Guests, and that puppy!
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AppIekidjoshmessage detail | filter | #067
why in the world is the guest clan so good at accuracy anyway
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EvilNcrmessage detail | filter | #068
Because the guests get some pretty damn good predictors amongst a bunch of joke predictors. (KD winning for example)
That's why they have the lowest score yet the best accuracy.
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AppIekidjoshmessage detail | filter | #069
xd yeah what kind of loser predicts katamari winning
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Safer Sephiroth 777message detail | filter | #070
Where are the predictions for Uncharted 2/Halo 1?
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LeonhartFourmessage detail | filter | #071
Coming within the next 65 minutes, I'd imagine.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
Master Moltar (tc)message detail | delete | filter | #072
North Division: Round 3 - Match 94 – (3) Uncharted 2 vs. (2) Halo: Combat Evolved

Moltar’s Analysis

Uncharted 2
Round 1 - 57.40% on Legend of Dragoon
Round 2 - 54.04% against Street Fighter IV

Looks like SF4 was nothing to worry about after all.

Halo
Round 1 - 64.45% on Ninja Gaiden
Round 2 - 56.92% against Halo 3

The Halo fanbase has spoken.

Like Uncharted/SF4, this is a pretty interesting match on paper. It’s still hard to tell how strong Uncharted 2 is considering it looked bad in Round 1 and then alright in Round 2. I think it’s likely that Uncharted was just barely the strongest game in a very weak four-pack.

Now we put that unknown up against a game like Halo, where it’s always hard to tell how it will do in a match, and I don’t even know where to begin. In the past though, Halo has looked to be the stronger franchise, and the original Halo does get more respect and less hate than the sequels for what it brought to the industry.

I think Halo, despite the hate it gets, is at least a solid midcarder. Plus Halo’s got it scary day vote if it’s close. Uncharted hasn’t sold me on its strength this contest, while Halo seems like the safe bet from what we’ve seen in the past.

And I love playing it safe.

Moltar’s Bracket: Uncharted 2 wins

Moltar’s Prediction: Halo - 53%



Lopen’s Analysis

Uncharted 2 may have been in the running for a GotY, but I just don't buy its strength. UC2 got against SF4 about what Halo 3 did against Mario Sunshine. Yeah, that SF4. I'm saying that UC2's four pack is just that weak (look at how well CC did against Majora's Mask if you still think random PS1 RPGs are worth much) and Halo... Halo gonna whoop that ass, speciallly since this is a day match. I honestly don't see the games in that pack that aren't called UC2 being much stronger than Ninja Gaiden... guess we'll see soon.

NATHAN DRAKE LOST TO CATS.

Lopen's prediction:
Halo: Combat Evolved with 60.04%



Transience’s Analysis

Like Portal/FF12, every contest match has pointed to a clear Halo win. 2009 games have sucked. We thought Legend of Dragoon doing well was because of this site's hardon for PS1 games, but then Battlefront 2 -- a game it shared a vote-in poll with -- got killed and Chrono Cross couldn't avoid a doubling from Majora's Mask. Uncharted 2 struggled to beat Street Fighter 4, a game/series that has had more than a couple flops. Oh, and did I mention that this is a day match?

...but even with all that, I don't feel right. Halo's only legit performance was a match against Ninja Gaiden, a game that's the worst of the worst when it comes to character action games. DMC3 could beat Ninja Gaiden and Prime stepped on that game. There's also the fact that Halo gets antivoted and it could very well hurt it here vs. perhaps the most critically acclaimed game of the generation. Only the Galaxy games can compete on that front.

Then again, PS3 exclusive that doesn't come from a storied franchise. Its focus is on cover-based shooting. If I'm going to pick a shooter, it's going to be one that redefined shooting.

transience's prediction: Halo: Combat Evolved with 54.75%
Master Moltar (tc)message detail | delete | filter | #073
Leon’s Analysis

My bracket has Uncharted 2 winning here (Yes, over Halo 1, silly Sunshine people), but…I’m not really feeling it anymore. It’s not because I’ve been impressed by what Halo 1 has done because it honestly hasn’t gotten a chance to really prove itself yet. 65% on Ninja Gaiden and 57% on Halo 3 don’t really tell us a whole lot. It’s hard to tell how much SFF (if any) was involved in that Halo 3 match, so it’s hard to get a good read.

Regardless, it’s more that Uncharted 2 hasn’t really done well enough in either of its matches to make me think it can win this one. It’s projected to get about 55% on Sonic Adventure 2, and Halo 1 is projected to get like 60% on Sunshine. Do I think SA2 would have any chance of beating Sunshine? Not at all. That’s kind of what’s swaying me toward Halo right now. Plus, the fact that this is a day match plays right into Halo’s hands. Still, I never underestimate Halo’s propensity to blow a close match when given the chance. I don’t quite think this one is a lock.

Leonhart’s Embarrassing Confession of the Match: I’ve only seen a little bit of Red vs. Blue, although I did enjoy what I did see!

Leonhart’s Vote: Halo.

Leonhart’s Prediction: Halo with 53.80%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Pre-contest, I felt like Uncharted had a great chance to make it through the the division finals. After that abysmal performance against Legend of Dragoon, and an equally poor showing against Street Fighter IV, it's pretty tough to keep that mindset. I suppose that there's still a small chance, but I think it's more likely that Halo completely dominates this match. Halo has just looked more impressive thus far (not like that's a difficult thing). There's always that "lol Halo" stigma that kind of worries me, but I don't think that'll come into play here. Uncharted is going down, and hard.

Kleenex's Prediction: Halo: Combat Evolved with 60.09%



Applekidjosh’s Analysis

Is it bad that I still don't know what genre of game Uncharted is? I know it's something western, but that's about it. Maybe one of those first person RPGs like Fallout?

Well the board has gone back and forth on this match, I think most people have settled with Halo right now, and that's where I am too. I would feel really bad picking against Halo 1 in a close day match in a contest setting where influential games are more important than fun games. Still, crazy things could happen and I could definitely see this upset.

AKJ says Halo with 52.50%



Guest’s Analysis - Eeeevil Overlord


So, you know how sometimes the guest spot goes to someone who picked what's probably the wrong pick and rather than accept the simple fact that they're probably incorrect they cling helplessly to their old pick and that's why the guest score's so disproportionately bad compared to the accuracy score?

Well, yeah. Uncharted 2 is a much better game than Halo in my opinion, and it deserves to win, and that's what I have in my bracket. Screw the fact this probably won't happen anymore, a guest can dream, damnit!

James's Vote: Uncharted 2: Among Thieves
James's Prediction: Uncharted 2 with 50.50%



Crew Consensus: Aside from the Guest, the Crew is going with Halo
LeonhartFourmessage detail | filter | #074
Thanks for saving us, Guest.

And lawl, Lopen doesn't even get the highest Halo prediction
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LinkMarioSamusmessage detail | filter | #075
Lol Guest.

Crew curse averted.
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Currently Playing - Zelda: Majora's Mask
Next Games Up - Super Smash Bros. Melee, Resident Evil 4, Okami
Ngamer64message detail | filter | #076
Halo 1 vs Uncharted 2

Here's another match where I'm not quite "feelin" the consensus opinion, which in this case is Halo > Uncharted without breaking a sweat. A number of us were seriously concerned about the SF4 upset, yet Uncharted crunches it with 54% and two weeks later everyone's saying it wasn't an impressive win. Whaaa? Did you guys not see Soul Calibur look very good on an Oblivion game that's fully legit after all, or MvC2 take a huge bite out of Metal Gear Solid? Fighting games sure don't look like fodder to me, so dumping the strongest (non-Smash) series in the bracket so easily is no joke, and it certainly trumps anything the Halo series has accomplished so far. (Oh wait, that win over Sunshine. Dang it!)

But in the end I've still got to back Halo in this matchup for two reasons. #1 is SmartVoterFAQs- I've always felt that the more influential/respected/trailblazing games would increase in strength as we dove deeper into the bracket, and so far I've seen no indications to the contrary. Even with Uncharted being critically acclaimed and a true GotY-type game in many people's eyes, it's probably just too new to compete with a "game-changer" like Halo on that front. #2 is the Day Match- Uncharted is a flagship PS3 title and does well for itself in Europe where that console is king, whereas American FPSes are of course terrible there, to the point where I would seriously consider UC2 in a Night Match. But it got quite unlucky on that front.

Long story short, look for Halo to underwhelm in the early going before pushing out to a comfortable lead during the ASV.

Halo: Combat Evolved - 53.67%

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If I were you I'd search B8 for The Show, the cool Ng/yoblazer Contest podcast!
Ngamer64message detail | filter | #077
Well now! I didn't expect Halo to underwhelm quite THIS thoroughly!

But yeah, I stick with what I said originally: Halo's still going to be fine thanks to the ASV, but this result would have flipped in a Night Match.

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If I were you I'd search B8 for The Show, the cool Ng/yoblazer Contest podcast!
The Mana Swordmessage detail | filter | #078
God damn Halo you are the worst.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
pjbasismessage detail | filter | #079
Dammit, Luster.

I was supposed to get the next WW match!

*stomp*
TsunamiXXVIIImessage detail | filter | #080
Revenge of the Guest Clan? This is going to be another down-to-the-wire match.
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Currently playing: Golden Sun: Dark Dawn
transiencemessage detail | filter | #081
nah, this is Halo's match. too bad.
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xyzzy
LeonhartFourmessage detail | filter | #082
Looks like Halo lucked out to get a day match here. I'd really like UC2's chances at night, that's for sure.
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transciencemessage detail | filter | #083
yeah. sf4 probably gets 46-47% in a night match on halo. crazy.
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iphonesience
transciencemessage detail | filter | #084
this also suggests sa2 > sunshine, I think.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
LeonhartFourmessage detail | filter | #085

From: transcience | #084
this also suggests sa2 > sunshine, I think.


Or that it'd at least be close. Halo 1/Halo 3 probably had a little bit of SFF in it. They're probably relatively close indirectly.

...But we're looking at Legend of Dragoon getting 45%+ on Sunshine here.

really now
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"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
LeonhartFourmessage detail | filter | #086
And if UC2 stays above 48% (unlikely), we'll technically get LoD > Sunshine in the stats!
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transientsmessage detail | filter | #087
I'm fine with setting Halo 1 and Halo 3 equal. do that and you've still got a 52/48 match in a timeframe that's very beneficial to Halo's pack.
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xyzzy
The Real Truthmessage detail | filter | #088
I'd love to see Uncharted 2 hang in and win this one. I don't know how this match has been aside from the current total.
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LeonhartFourmessage detail | filter | #089

From: The Real Truth | #088
I'd love to see Uncharted 2 hang in and win this one. I don't know how this match has been aside from the current total.


It's Halo in a day match.

UC2 isn't winning.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
transientsmessage detail | filter | #090
hey Leon, give me some x-stats with Halo 1 and 3 being equal and Halo winning this 53/47!
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xyzzy
LeonhartFourmessage detail | filter | #091

From: transients | #090
hey Leon, give me some x-stats with Halo 1 and 3 being equal and Halo winning this 53/47!


Let's see...

Halo: Combat Evolved – 50.00%
Halo 3 – 50.00%
Super Mario Sunshine – 47.47%
Uncharted 2: Among Thieves – 47.00%
Street Fighter IV – 43.20%
Sonic Adventure 2 – 42.55%
The Legend of Dragoon – 40.04%
Ninja Gaiden – 35.55%

Sunshine wins with 55.18% on SA2 in this scenario.
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TheKoolAidShotomessage detail | filter | #092
I still take UC2 over SMS >_>
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most_games_r_okmessage detail | filter | #093
dammit why must uncharted 2 lose :(
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Lopenmessage detail | filter | #094

From: LeonhartFour | #074
Thanks for saving us, Guest.

And lawl, Lopen doesn't even get the highest Halo prediction


Seriously how does this happen. Amusingly we had basically the same justification for it, though.

Man disappointing showing from Halo.
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KamikazePotatomessage detail | filter | #095
There is no way Halo 1 = Halo 3. Sunshine doesn't get close to 47% on Halo 1.

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DFF
transientsmessage detail | filter | #096
I'm just going best case scenario for Halo. Sunshine's actually overrated due to it being a night match.
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xyzzy
transientsmessage detail | filter | #097
although probably not by much
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xyzzy
Eeeevil Overlordmessage detail | filter | #098
Don't feel bad about going for what I knew was almost certainly the wrong pick now!
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Eeeevil Overlordmessage detail | filter | #099
Do feel bad about forgetting to switch my Battle Pick though. Guessing I'm dropping from 7th on the Battle Leaderboard over the next few days, now :/. Oh well, was a fun dizzying height to reach while it lasted!
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James - Board 8's Resident Warm And Safe, Slipper-Wearing User
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LeonhartFourmessage detail | filter | #100
Looks like this is going to wind up being a decent performance for Halo 1 after all!

This is the first major ASV crushing we've seen in what feels like forever.
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