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GameFAQs Contests

Game of the Decade Contest Analysis Crew - Part 4

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ZFSmessage detail | filter | #451
76% flop plop and drop

this game is done

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A journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step.
transiencemessage detail | filter | #452
this is a flop? man, you people and Fallout 3
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xyzzy
VaultBoyAlbionmessage detail | filter | #453
ZFSmessage detail | filter | #454
Watch for it -- Melee to beat FFVII.

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The whole object of travel is not to set foot on foreign land; it is at last to set foot on one's own country as a foreign land.
transiencemessage detail | filter | #455
albion'd
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xyzzy
VaultBoyAlbionmessage detail | filter | #456
Obviously its not gonna get tripled by Melee, but its still a pretty disappointing performance... Theres no reason it shouldn't be able to get near 80% on something that should be a SFF match, especially since one would expect Half Life 2 would also be able to do a tripling here. It doesn't give me any confidence in Fallout 3 beating Half Life 2 after seeing this match.
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http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/170/ikamusume0516.gif
transiencemessage detail | filter | #457
well, sucks for you I guess

there is no way inFamous would ever come close to Deus Ex
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xyzzy
Master Moltar (tc)message detail | delete | filter | #458
Crew Predictions - 54/62

What Happened: who nose

Why it Happened: Wind Waker looked really good...God of War 2 clearly isn't on the level of the first game (maybe). Speaking of games that aren't on the level of their predecessors, AC2 also let ICO do a bit too well on it. Paper Mario TTYD then rocked Gears 2, which was to be expected after we saw Paper Mario and Gears 1 earlier. Then, SC2 does well against Oblivion.

What will Happen: WW > AC2, Oblivion still the favorite over TTYD.

Crew Prediction Challenge - points

Moltar - 53
Tran - 53
AKJ - 51
Kleenex - 51
Lopen - 50
Leon - 50
Guest - 45



Crew Accuracy Challenge - Kleenex gets the point for WW and Greyfeld gets the point for AC2. Tran gets the point for Paper Mario and Leon gets the point for Oblivion

Guest - 11 (GfK: 1, BT: 2, CM: 2, Kotetsu: 1, dragon: 1, NGamer: 1, Ultima: 1, TRT: 1, Greyfeld: 1)
Moltar - 9.5
Tran - 9
AKJ - 8.5
Lopen - 8
Kleenex - 8
Leon - 7
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Moltar Status: Bracket: PM TTYD (54/62)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
Ngamer64message detail | filter | #459
Batman: AA vs Team Fortress 2

I pondered a bit on this match yesterday, and I've got to admit, I came out of that ponder feeling pretty darn shaky about Batman's chances. It underperformed in R1 and will now have to deal with a beloved Valve title (a more scary prospect post-Portal blowout) that managed to outlast a multi-million selling wRPG (a more impressive accomplishment given how well that genre has performed) in a day match (a nice accomplishment, as Valve/Steam games are usually at their best overnight).

But I've just gone back to check the percentages and was surprised to find that Batman put up nearly 73% on Psychonauts! Now I fully realize why that felt so underwhelming to us at the time, given how FO3 had just managed 81%, but now that we're all aware of the SmartVoterFAQs trend that has made it impossible to blow out respected older entrants with cult/niche appeal... well heck, that 73% doesn't look half bad! (Especially considering how Fallout 3 is currently struggling to stay above 74% on Deus Ex.)

Between that performance and the Day Match and the major match pic advantage (seriously, Batman AND The Joker? great work, whoever put that together!), I'm thinking Arkham Asylum advances without too much trouble- though the TF2 fanbase should still do a good job of limiting its percentage. Let's go, ummm, mid-50s.

Batman: Arkham Asylum - 56.27%

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LinkMarioSamusmessage detail | filter | #460
So hold on guys...

Batman: Arkham Asylum is supposed to be...Gears of War meets BioShock/Metroid I guess? Sign me up!

Team Fortress 2 is supposed to be...one of the best online multiplayer games ever? Not big on that yet but I'm looking forward to it!
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Currently Playing: StarCraft, Zelda: Ocarina of Time
transiencemessage detail | filter | #461
can't wait to see the battle stats after this match. they should fall off really bad from people who made a bracket and then never came back to update it.
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xyzzy
Master Moltar (tc)message detail | delete | filter | #462
North Division: Round 2 - Match 66 – (5) Batman: Arhkam Asylum vs. (4) Team Fortress 2

Moltar’s Analysis

Batman: AA
Round 1 - 72.51% on Psychonauts

Batman looking good in R1

Team Fortress 2
Round 1 - 50.03% on Fable

TF2 barely gets a win over Fable

It took pretty much everything for TF2 to advance over Fable in Round 1. This time, it’s not going to be so lucky. Batman is a game with some solid strength.

Batman was able to beat down a weak game like Psychonauts, but TF2 is going to do a good deal better. After seeing that it was possible for any midcard game to score a big win in R1, Batman’s win looks a lot less impressive now. Plus, 2009 games haven’t looked too good overall.

TF2 should manage to keep it close and will probably make Batman AA sweat.

Moltar’s Bracket: Batman: AA wins

Moltar’s Prediction: Batman: AA - 53%



Lopen’s Analysis

A bit skeptical in Batman's year in general, but it did come out on top over Dragon Age and ACII, so it can't be a joke. It should be more than enough to beat Team Fortress here... unless Fable is a bit more popular than we give it credit for.

While I do think that's true, I also think Fable got anti-voted, and no one anti-votes the goddamn Batman. So I figure even if Fable = Batman, which I could see being true, Batman still has the edge in this one comfortably. As it is, not only that, I see Batman being a bit stronger than Fable and lacking the anti-votes... so an Ulti style blowout looms.

Lopen's prediction:
Batman: Arkham Asylum with 57.35%



Transience’s Analysis

Is Arkham Asylum stronger than Fable?

It should be - popular action game with the Batman name on it. Won a number of GOTY awards and is very liked amongst the people who have played it. On the other hand, it's a character action game in the same vein as a DMC or a God of War. There's a hell of a lot more to it than that, but if you had to break it down, you'd compare it to an Assassin's Creed or a Ninja Gaiden before anything else.

Fable is, if nothing else, an RPG. Those games always perform unusually well. I wouldn't pick it to beat Batman, but it could happen. TF2 is essentially a PC-only multiplayer shooter so that probably won't be enough to beat Batman, but that game is just huge with the right audience. It probably isn't the GameFAQs audience but it could be.

transience's prediction: Batman: Arkham Asylum with 58.13%



Leon’s Analysis

This is another match between two games that had vastly different first rounds. Arkham Asylum did just about as expecting in scoring 72.50% on Psychonauts, while Team Fortress 2 had the closest wire-to-wire match ever against Fable. I doubt we’re going to replicate either one of those results here. I expect Batman to win, mostly because I think TF2 barely beating Fable is more an indication that it was weak than that Fable was strong. Arkham Asylum would need to put up some big numbers to give any sort of hope that it could beat Fallout 3 (though that train feels like it was already derailed last round), but I doubt that happens.

Leonhart’s Embarrassing Confession of the Match: I like Spider-Man better than Batman, and by a wide margin (Okay, this isn’t really embarrassing at all; it’s just a fact of life, but whatever).

Leonhart’s Vote: Team Fortress 2.

Leonhart’s Prediction: Arkham Asylum with 61.66%
Master Moltar (tc)message detail | delete | filter | #463
Kleenex’s Analysis

This match is a little more interesting than last night's but not really. I suppose Team Fortress could potentially pull off an upset if it gets a rally going or something, but that barely allowed it to win its match last round. I have a really hard time believing that Batman would lose to Fable. Hopefully Batman doesn't go and lose because I'm banking tomorrow and I don't wanna lose all my points!

Kleenex's Prediction: Batman with 58.99%



Applekidjosh’s Analysis

Batman vs TF2. Batman showed how legit it was by tearing through Psychonauts, while TF2 had that squeaker against Fable. Batman's in no danger at all of losing this but I am a little perplexed where to go with the percentage. I figure I'll just stick with a safe whomping at

AKJ says Batman > TF2 with 60%



Guest’s Analysis - Eeeevil Overlord

Rough timeline of this match:
- Pre-contest, people think Batman will probably win and some think it may even challenge Fallout 3, though a small minority say TF2 will win;
- Batman doesn't look that impressive against Psychonauts, a game expected to be weak, and that minority grows larger
- TF2 goes wire-to-wire with Fable and arguably looks worse for winning as it seems it only won due to Valve rallies, and the minority diminishes again;
- Cult games that are critically acclaimed are doing fairly well, the minority gets smaller still.

Now it seems like Arkham Asylum should win, but not stand a chance against Fallout 3. Which is what most people said to begin with. What fun.

James's Vote: Arkham Asylum
James's Prediction: Arkham Asylum with 56.80%



Crew Consensus: Batman takes it.
th3l3ftymessage detail | filter | #464
Banked: 544
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion: 20058
SoulCalibur II: 3811

Banked: 301
Fallout 3: 16438
Deus Ex: 1309


lost about 6500 battlers to round 2!
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
DpObliVionmessage detail | filter | #465
Looking forward to what the Crew thinks about the next match! I have UC2 in my bracket but I'm really starting to believe SF4 will win. Anyway, I'm almost definitely banking here. Would be banking 13,600 for a total of 32,600. Then that means I'm free to make a pick on Halo/Halo 3!

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Booyah, Grandma. Booyah. {XI} dood
Eeeevil Overlordmessage detail | filter | #466
Crew all within 6% of the result shock.
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James - Board 8's Resident Warm And Safe, Slipper-Wearing User
& The Cream of Porcupine Tree Fanboyism
transiencemessage detail | filter | #467
I wonder how many people will have the balls to betray their brackets tonight. prediction: 2!
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xyzzy
Lopenmessage detail | filter | #468
Well not to give you guys any free pointers but the match pic was changed a little bit to be less terrible for Uncharted

I'm sure this has been discussed at length in the stats topic though
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
EvilNcrmessage detail | filter | #469
I'm quite interested of the crew's opinion on Halo 1 vs Halo 3.
I'm thinking the picture might actually make a difference for people like me who played neither.
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"You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life." ~ Winston Churchill
AppIekidjoshmessage detail | filter | #470
dammit Kleenex if you take this point from me by two tenths of a percent

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"A board where all the people try hard to be "nice" to each other would be terribly boring, don't you think?" - Vlado
Master Moltar (tc)message detail | delete | filter | #471
North Division: Round 2 - Match 67 – (3) Uncharted 2 vs. (11) Street Fighter IV

Moltar’s Analysis

Uncharted 2
Round 1 - 57.40% on Legend of Dragoon

Letting those old PS1 RPGs beat up on you, eh Uncharted

Street Fighter IV
Round 1 - 50.75% on Sonic Adventure 2

And here I thought being equal to Persona 4 was a bad thing.

Tough match right here. SF4 beating Sonic Adventure 2 was a bit surprising, but it’s hard to say if it was because SA2 is weak or SF4 is strong/has boosted. Even Uncharted’s match doesn’t give us that much more help. It did pretty poorly against Legend of Dragoon, but then again, old-ass RPGs have been doing great this contest, so maybe Uncharted’s performance was actually impressive.

Actually now that I think about it, Uncharted did pretty much what I expected. Dunno why I feel so down on it though. I have the game going to the semi-finals anyway, so I probably just want to jump ship because of the upset. Honestly, I’m still going back and forth on the match, and I’ll probably change my pick in the Oracle, but for now (since I’ve gotta put something down), I’m sticking with Uncharted.

Night match should help SF4, and this is likely to be close, but Uncharted lived up to my expectations in Round 1 and I’m probably overestimating how strong SA2 is.

Moltar’s Bracket: Uncharted 2 wins

Moltar’s Prediction: Uncharted 2 - 51%



Lopen’s Analysis

Well, my original thought pre-contest was UC2 > LoD > Sonic > SF4. That obviously won't pan out anymore... and I even have doubts LoD will outdo SF4 anymore thanks to that lopsided pic, but I've still got faith that UC2 can beat out SFIV-- the match pic has been improved to not in RE vs SF series contest caliber (protip: SF still lost that) and well... got reasons to believe that beating Sonic Adventure isn't really all that impressive anyway.

Those reasons of course being anti-votes. I still don't think SF4 is strong at all, and so it should lose to Uncharted cause the anti-vote fuel isn't there any more.

But I'm pulling for SFIV!

Lopen's prediction:
Uncharted 2 with 57.33%



Transience’s Analysis

This match is killing me.

Uncharted 2 should be the stronger game. It kept up with MW2 and beat Dragon Age in the GOTY poll, a game that crushed SF4 in GOTY. It got a high seed and won Game of the Year all over the place on other sites. It's very respected and is a game GameFAQs should like -- it's a great immersive single player experience. Perfect GameFAQs game.

The problem? It's GameFAQs, and GameFAQs doesn't flock to new IPs. Uncharted 2 is a PS3 exclusive and struggled with Legend of Dragoon, a game SF4 should handle. Street Fighter is by far the bigger series - the series is weak but for people who don't have a PS3 or don't know Uncharted, SF is an easy pick. Fighting games have gone 3 for 3 so far, too - SF4 did well, MVC2 did well and Soul Calibur 2 did better than expected. Are they boosting through the roof? Nah, but they're proving they're not crap like they have been for a couple years.

I hear more talk these days about SF4 than I do Uncharted. As good as Uncharted is/was, it did kind of come and go. SF4 is a game that keeps on giving. On the other hand, Batman is a game that's a lot like Uncharted 2 and it's doing alright vs. TF2. I don't know what to do here. I guess I'll stick with my bracket.

transience's prediction: Uncharted 2 with 51.01%
Master Moltar (tc)message detail | delete | filter | #472
Leon’s Analysis

This match has the potential to be interesting here. A lot of people were disappointed in UC2’s first round performance against Legend of Dragoon, but I thought it did just about as expected. LoD’s not some powerhouse, but it’s not turbo fodder either. This is a division with Fallout 3 and a bunch of low midcarders, so UC2 still has a chance to get to the divisional finals, I think.

Street Fighter IV beat out Sonic Adventure 2 in a close one, and coupled with UC2’s performance, a lot of people are thinking SFIV may have a shot here. I won’t disagree with them, but I still think Uncharted 2 is the favorite. I feel like SA2 losing was more 3-D Sonic flopping than SFIV redeeming itself, though that was part of it as well. This one should be decently close since I doubt SFIV loses to Legend of Dragoon, but I still think Uncharted 2 will win this one without MUCH trouble. I could be wrong (and I kinda hope I am because I love SFIV), but I think people are making too much out of what happened in round 1.

Leonhart’s Embarrassing Confession of the Match: I hate Supers and Ultras that involve down-back charges. I can never execute them consistently.

Leonhart’s Vote: STREET FIGHTA FO’, SON!

Leonhart’s Prediction: Uncharted 2 with 54.01%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Man, I dunno about this match. Most of the games in the 2009 Game of the Year poll have stunk up the joint so far, compounded with Uncharted 2's already dubious performance on Legend of Dragoon really makes me wonder. But then again, it's Street Fighter IV. It can't be that strong. But then again, fighting games have looked surprisingly decent thus far. I'm going to look at the match this way: do I think that Sonic Adventure 2 would give Uncharted 2 a run for its money? I do not. I kind of want to bite on the upset, but I have a tough time making it seem feasible enough to do so. I wonder if Uncharted could even do better here than it did on Legend of Dragoon.

Kleenex's Prediction: Uncharted 2 with 54.67%



Applekidjosh’s Analysis

One of the themes to round 1 in the contest was "Oh we don't completely hate 2d fighting games." It certainly caught me off guard! But then again I was already in that crappy position of never having heard of Uncharted before the contest started. General consensus for this match is a big fat "I have no idea." I'll be banking my battle points, that's for sure.

Uncharted looked silly against Legend of Dragoon, or so I thought at the time. But for some reason this site has extreme nostalgiaboners going for crappy PS1 games. Meanwhile Street Fighter basically went even with Sonic... which doesn't tell us much anyway! At least AFTER this match things will be more clear.

Alright I'm going to go ahead and go with Street Fighter and if you want to know my reasoning here you go: There have been like 3 major SF tournaments this month so it's at least in some people's minds right now!

AKJ says Street Fighter > Uncharted with 50.50%
Master Moltar (tc)message detail | delete | filter | #473
Guest’s Analysis - numbers/dragon22391

Maybe this is just me, but I'm not really "getting" all of this SFIV > UC2 hype. I'm not sure why people think SFIV beating SA2 is such a big deal -- http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3938 -- lol multi-way polls and such... but it still held even with Shenmue. I just don't see any real basis for Adventure 2 being strong, and we all remember SFIV's performance the year prior. Persona 4, etc. Persona 4 laid into Braid, sure, but it's Braid. Like ten people have played it.

The best argument against Uncharted 2, to me, is just how ridiculously bad 2009 games have done in this contest so far -- Assassin's Creed 2, Modern Warfare 2, Arkham Asylym to a degree -- all have looked pretty bad in the first round. But I still just see no basis at all for SFIV to beat Uncharted 2. To the chagrin of my bracket and my extreme fanboyism, this is probably UC2's last victory, but I absolutely can't see it losing here to SFIV.

Uncharted 2: Among Thieves with 56.31%



Crew Consensus: Uncharted with the near sweep? AKJ the only SF4 pick? We’re screwed.
AppIekidjoshmessage detail | filter | #474
welp

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img184.imageshack.us/img184/7595/lovevk5.gif
Joker is sick and twisted and must be stoped at all costed what plans do you have in store for Batman anyway
transientsmessage detail | filter | #475
let's do this. SF4 needs to lose for things to make sense.
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xyzzy
th3l3ftymessage detail | filter | #476
does it count as betrayal if I had Sonic Adventure 2? >_>
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
DpObliVionmessage detail | filter | #477
Applekidjosh’s Analysis

....But then again I was already in that crappy position of never having heard of Uncharted before the contest started.


what

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Booyah, Grandma. Booyah. {XI} dood
Greyfeldmessage detail | filter | #478
If it makes AKJ feel any better, I had Sonic Adventure 2 to the division finals :P
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PSN - Aevio
Playing: Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes
AppIekidjoshmessage detail | filter | #479

From: DpObliVion | #477
Applekidjosh’s Analysis

....But then again I was already in that crappy position of never having heard of Uncharted before the contest started.


what


I stopped playing video games awhile ago

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"Luster, you are a delight" ~NGamer
"Yes, yes I am." ~ Luster Soldier
AppIekidjoshmessage detail | filter | #480
if it holds at 59.5 I win by .01 right? >_>

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"not my nips nooo" ~ Shadow Ryoko
The Mana Swordmessage detail | filter | #481
Time to start a TF2 rally.
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This is the kind of shit that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
Ngamer64message detail | filter | #482
Uncharted 2 vs Street Fighter 4

After everything we've seen to this point, I expected that this one would have turned into more or less a coin flip by this point. Yet I just took a glance through the Oracle and... everyone sticking with UC2, and a big chunk of those are staying in that 54-56 range. What the HECK guys?

* Street Fighter has always been awesome in the early going (before running into trouble with the morning vote), and it put up 59% in Asia and Australia and 51% in Europe despite that being the last place on Earth that still LIKES Sonic. yet a Night Vote isn't going to be an advantage?
* in a world where even MvC and Soul Calibur can perform well above expectations, it seems silly to count out the SF series as being able to surprise us again
* have you SEEN that match pic? Ryu has never looked more awesome, and that's saying something!
* the closer we've come to this match, the more I'm getting the same kind of sense that I did heading into Ryu/Dante

Much as I'd love to blame this entirely on logic and reason, however, the real thing that pushed me over the edge is that I'm #6 in the Oracle and (as of the last scan) the only person in the Top 25 picking Street Fighter is my podcast partner yoblazer. That's just a ridic amount of herd mentality for a match that could so easily swing either way, so I'm sticking with yo and we'll be shooting up the ranks together!

Street Fighter IV - 50.07%

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AppIekidjoshmessage detail | filter | #483
dayum that board/bracket vote

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"A board where all the people try hard to be "nice" to each other would be terribly boring, don't you think?" - Vlado
Lopenmessage detail | filter | #484
LoD > SF4 and Sonic

So called it. (Though I undershot the percentage slightly because I didn't have time to look up UC2 vs LoD)
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
NoDicePwnmessage detail | filter | #485
how the hell was LoD so strong. its a crappy old PS1 I never heard anyone ever talk about
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DpObliVionmessage detail | filter | #486
I know I just made fun of AKJ for saying this about UC2, but....

I've never even heard of LoD before this contest.

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Booyah, Grandma. Booyah. {XI} dood
dragon22391message detail | filter | #487
you are so lucky, Dp
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I'm too tired to drive anywhere anyway right now, do you care if I stay?
Call me numbers.
Lopenmessage detail | filter | #488
LoD isn't strong this is just the weakest four pack ever. UC2 gonna get wrecked by Halo bet on it
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This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
transientsmessage detail | filter | #489
gonna be tough to say anything about Halo. Halo 1/3 isn't going to tell us anything and Ninja Gaiden is an awful barometer.

guess it depends on if Halo gets antivoted or not
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xyzzy
KamikazePotatomessage detail | filter | #490
I'd call Halo the favorite simply because it's a day match. Might not matter anyway because it's Halo vs. debatable competition.

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DFF
DpObliVionmessage detail | filter | #491
banking on this match

whoops

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Booyah, Grandma. Booyah. {XI} dood
ZFSmessage detail | filter | #492
Feelin' good about Halo over UC2. Think that would be closer to a 57/43 kind of match than one UC2 could win.

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There are no foreign lands. It is the traveler only who is foreign.
transientsmessage detail | filter | #493
yeah, goin' with Halo here. wish we could have seen UC in a day match as it seems like something that'd do better in the day than the night, but even then, Halo.
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xyzzy
transientsmessage detail | filter | #494
I probably get the point today, huh?

OWNED, MOLTAR
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xyzzy
AppIekidjoshmessage detail | filter | #495
street fighter comin back overnight

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Porre either became an aristocratic mercantile state or a placid direct democracy depending on if the lady who ran an inn was able to serve people beef jerky.
Lopenmessage detail | filter | #496
Wow UC2 tanked bad after the first 5.
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No problem!
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The Real Truthmessage detail | filter | #497
Sent my prediction.
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Ngamer64message detail | filter | #498
Lopen | Posted 11/21/2010 11:03:31 PM | message detail
LoD > SF4 and Sonic

So called it.


Whoooooooops!



(Yeah I realize I look dumb today as well, but will at least end up closer to my percentage than this!)

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If I were you I'd search B8 for The Show, the cool Ng/yoblazer Contest podcast!
Lopenmessage detail | filter | #499
(wouldn't be so sure about that!)
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
pjbasismessage detail | filter | #500
First 500 post.