GameFAQs Contests
Best Game Ever 2 Contest Analysis Crew (Part Five)
I'd
say FF7 winning it easily would've been worse. Fanboy bias aside, do we
really want to see the exact same result from 5 years ago? OoT
dominating isn't much better, but at least it's...different. Zelda winning again is different? --- There ain't no gettin' offa this train we're on |
You know what's funny? In the guru, I'll gain 64 points on the FF7 > OoT pickers. As a result, I'll move up... wait for it... one spot --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Wait a minute... no I won't. I break even. "Whoops" Dammit Idyvino why didn't you go with OoT > FF7 I could've had last place. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Don't worry, Lopen. I talked to a guy tonight who has 168 points. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
Pfft. Doing better than the poorer brackets of non contest-fanatics is no consolation to me! I take solace in the fact that my bracket would've been a way cooler contest than this. I had OoT out in the quarters! Halo and Starcraft eliminating OoT? Delicious. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I
take solace in the fact that my bracket would've been a way cooler
contest than this. I had OoT out in the quarters! Halo and Starcraft
eliminating OoT? Delicious. That pick had me laughing hard. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ! |
My whole bracket lived and breathed LFF. Smash/OoT LFF for the win. Unfortunately the effects of it were ultimately very minimal, and that combined with Starcraft and Halo/Halo 2 bombing was just a recipe for disaster. At least this contest sucked, no contest I'd rather do this poorly in. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
What's that you say, the Contest is over? HECK NO- not until I finish my writeups! Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup Good heavens, was that ever embarrassing! I was dead wrong about FF7 (45% of the vote at this stage of the bracket? It had the ideal situation, I know, but even *I* have to admit that FF7 has asserted itself as the game to beat with a showing like that.), dead wrong about the Marios hanging tight with LttP, and even dead wrong about Mario 3 gaining an advantage over SMW with there being no other NES options around. (Luckily my foolishness in not double checking my pred saved my Oracle from that last mistake!) It's the second thing I mentioned that really bothers me... Mario had by far his best season since the Summer of '05, with his three top tier titles stunning us left and right through the whole bracket, and yet the final impression they leave is coming up miles behind LttP and missing out on a Championship that quite frankly they deserved to be represented in. What a shame that World couldn't have been placed in the bottom bracket where it could have challenged R/B/Y and FFX and the SSB/MGSes, and that 3 didn't get a legit shot at LttP or, um... oh wait, that was the only other game of strength in the upper half. MIX THE ERAS next time, SB! That brings us to the second to last match of the season, and it seems everyone agrees that this will be a dullfest. I'm... not so sure. Yes Ocarina is going to dominate (though I don't see any way it could possibly contend with FF7's Nintendo-bloated percentage) and yes Brawl will be last by a light year (I do think it holds up better than Melee did, but thanks to Pokemon being in the mix last time who knows if that will mean anything). As for FFX/MGS4 though, hmmm. I just don't think its wise to count MGS out entirely. Yes its the weakest of these 4 options naturally, but there are a few things working in it favor to help balance that out, IMO. * many voters are sick of Nintendo/Square domination, and as we saw with Snake last season, that can work to MGS's favor; people might hesitate to vote another FF into the Final, especially after seeing FF7 put up nearly 50 yesterday * the MGS base is more dedicated than anyone, including FF- we saw this when FF8 collapsed to allow MGS1 the heads up win. granted X >> 8 while 1 ~= 4, but Ocarina and Brawl combined ought to be sucking up a large enough percentage of the votes to help even that playing field * as I've said before, I think there's a good deal of playership overlap between Zelda and FF, and I guess Square in general- Snake's powerhouse showing in the last Final seems to bear this out somewhat. being the most independent option could work wonders since, again, the Nintendo choices are going to be taking the lion's share here The trouble with backing the MGS upset is that FFX is just so so good overnight and then holds its own fairly well all through the day, whereas MGS falls down the stairs during the ASV. The only way I could see 4 pulling this off would be to get a huge start in the opening three hours, thereby creating enough Snake-like rally momentum to keep it within range for the MGS "clutch factor" of the last two hours. But, eh, that's too much a long shot for me to pull the trigger on. Still think the race for second will be closer than most are calling for though! The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 41.77% Final Fantasy X - 21.87% Metal Gear Solid 4 - 20.47% Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 15.88% BAM, I like it! --- The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/ (thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either) |
let's
not spin this - this is an upset. you call it the same old, but if that
was the case why didn't you pick it? this is a pretty momentous
occasion -- Final Fantasy VII has been dethroned. Zelda may have won
some character stuff, but you don't beat FF7. Ocarina is. --- xyzzy OCARINA OF TIME I HATE YOU but Krakenprophet knows what's up |
But who really cares, tranny? That's my point. This is
unexpected, but it's not exactly in a good way. It's like say... a
ruthless and uncaring king rules over Europe and defends it from a
ruthless and uncaring warlord who has conquered the rest of the world
for five years, then the ruthless warlord finally defeats the king.
It's not like the quality of living for the Europeans has improved. If anything the warlord now has more reason to be a bastard because nothing can stand against him. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I
mean, it's not like FF7 even had a reign. Despite being undefeated, it
has one contest win, and the list. This isn't the resume of an
unbeatable force, it's called a small sample size. Heck, it only got
54% on OoT in the first place. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
eh,
if FF7 won you'd be down on it too for being too predictable. FF7 isn't
some badass game standing against The Man -- FF7 *is* The Man. too much hate for this contest for my tastes. I dunno what everyone expected but this is pretty much in line with what the last five years of character battles have shown us. --- xyzzy OCARINA OF TIME I HATE YOU but Krakenprophet knows what's up |
They're both
The Man, dude. I would be giving basically (slightly less, as I
actually like FF7 and think OoT is trash) the same reaction if FF7 won
and OoT was in second, yeah. I figured a change in format would introduce something strange, like it did with the character battles, and would make for an odd result somewhere. I mean, 2007 had L-Block, but let's not forget last year either. Snake led Link for like three hours and beat Cloud pretty easily. That was good stuff. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Oh,
and the whole "it's been 5 years" thing. Compare say 2002 to 2006 and
you'll see a lot more variance than you do between the two games
contests. And unfortunately, all the variance that existed pretty much
shifted towards removal of non FF/Nintendo from the equation, which
makes things less interesting rather than more. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Final one of the season. Whew! Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup Oh sweet, that ended up being another pretty solid prediction for me! Brawl held up a tad better than I expected and limited Ocarina's mobility somewhat as a result, but I was right on the money when it came to the battle for second place. MGS had an excellent first three hours, then X went nutzo when Europe started to wake up just as it always does, BUT 4 countered by hanging pretty tough all through the overnight. Once the sun rose on the East Coast though, poof, that dream was gone- had to pretty much settle for going even with Brawl from there out. Actually, hmm, I wonder how good my pick was exactly... 4) Ngamer64 FF X 21.87% MGS4 20.47% SSBB 15.88% Zelda: OoT 41.77% 49.16 4.92 Awwww yeah, that's what I like to see! Anyways, let's check how Brawl vs Melee ended up. From my quick calcs, looks like Brawl managed... 30% directly, while Melee pulled down just 26.25%. But factor in Pokemon plus Melee naturally being expected to overlap more given how the games were only 3-4 years apart, and... CRAP, it's still too close to call between these two. Oh well, guess we'll have to just go on debating that one for the next 24 months! Of course the REAL thing everyone's concerned about is Ocarina versus FF7. I said yesterday that FF was sure to win the "looked better in R5" award and I'm afraid I have to stick with that stance. 41% against the strongest MGS (yes, I'm now willing to concede that 4's extreme independence makes it the cream of the crop in this format- I'd still take 1 > 4 in a 1v1 however!) and 2nd strongest FF is incredible, especially when you consider that combined OoT and Brawl pushed for nearly 60%. But 45% of the vote against ANYONE in R5 is simply unbelievable, and frankly shouldn't even be possible. Raw percentage-wise, I'm going to give FF7 the edge heading into this Championship. |
Luckily
there's something working in Ocarina's favor that could perhaps help
balance things out- its vote trends. We all know how legendarily bad
FF7 is with the early vote, and that's more or less held true here in
2009, but the classic counter used to be "no problem- it'll just rise
to heaven the entire rest of the day!" Now though, not so much... yes
the game still dominates like no other during the dead hours of the
night, but then its been completely stagnating within an hour of the
sun rising. And mostly its had no excuse- aside from Mario 64, all the
games its been smashing on the top half of the bracket are old as dirt
and shouldn't be stealing the "kiddie vote" from what's supposed to be
the most beloved game on the site! Ocarina on the other hand has been a day vote BEAST- even last round when there was an ASV monster named Brawl hanging around OoT still kicked the competition in the teeth for the entire final 15 hours of the poll. In other words I'd be shocked if FF7 didn't lead the match from about the 4 hour mark straight through the night, and there's a good chance it even appears to have the poll salted away during that time. But I'd likewise be stunned if OoT didn't start taking huge chunks out of that least almost immediately after sunrise, and if the comeback gets serious enough to carry momentum and rally power into the ASV, this becomes Ocarina's match to lose. In summary I would favor OoT for the win ever so slightly if this were a 1v1. However as we well know its NOT (darn you SB!), meaning its time to factor in how the presence of the other two options will affect this outcome. Let's start with LttP, which I think is going to do... not a whole lot, really. Sounds weird to say this considering the game technically earned its "third strongest on the site" bragging rights this season, but, was anyone actually impressed by anything Link to the Past accomplished in '09? To me the closest it came to a "wow" moment was when it crunched stablemate LA down to the low teens, but that was a dubious accomplishment at best given how little we know about the lesser Zelda. The rallying cry for LttP against OoT has always been "a ton of people prefer 2D Zelda, and those types are diehards- they'd never betray LttP for a 3D game!" Now though I'm not so sure... haven't we always used the same "classic", "iconic", "diehard" arguments for Mario 3? Those sure don't look so hot after its 15% outing the other day. Just seems that as soon as we moved out of the 8/16 bit-only matchups recency became the driving force of the season, and I see that continuing in the title match- people are going to drop LttP when they see OoT in trouble, and they'll drop it in droves. Okay, but won't people just as easily abandon FFX if they see their beloved FF7 in trouble? I say... not necessarily. Like I was just saying, recency has played a major role in these matches (much like it always seems to do in GotY polls), and there's little doubt that X is THE RPG of the past two generations (and for many people THE GAME, period). Also, the Final Fantasy fanbase has always seemed to be much more fractured than Zelda's- this is what we used to explain the BSE result, and I think it held true when FF6 put up a better fight against 7 than we'd been expecting (alright, FF4 > FF1 was brutal, but it seems clear now that 1 operates on something like 70% franchise votes). Yes fans will jump ship to help save 7, but I just can't picture X being entirely sucked dry here as I imagine most will be predicting. |
In
summary, even though LttP should still end up ahead of FFX in total
percentage, I'm expecting X to do more to hurt its big brother's
chances- Square LFF is just naturally a bigger deal than it is for
Nintendo, as we've seen all year long. That combined with Ocarina's
superior Day Vote and increased rally potential is enough for me to
declare OoT a favorite in this Final... though only ever so slightly! Let's see those percentages. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 37.50% Final Fantasy VII - 37.00% The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past - 14.00% Final Fantasy X - 11.50% Uhhh, would have liked to keep 7 closer to OoT and X a little closer to LttP but didn't have time as I was rushing out the door. Oh well, this is the right ballpark anyways. Goooo Ocarina! --- The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/ (thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either) |
I
have some strong words to say about everyone dumping on this Contest-
strong words INDEED. But heading to bed now so I'll have to get to them
later. Two things though before I go- 1. Look on the bright side... as long as OoT finishes this one out, we'll be able to move both games to some kind of championship bracket for Games '11. And after all the complaints from this year there's no way the bracket would be divided by era again- even if 4ways are retained, there's no way even SB could mess up THAT bracket, not with all the 100 questions this year left us with (including having almost zero info on what happens when totally different generations collide, and also zero idea on what the #3-#25 games on this site actually are!). 2. Is it worth petitioning for an Ocarina vs FF7 1v1 bonus poll at this point, or do we agree that the result would only get more ugly? --- The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/ (thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either) |
Well, I guess we can afford to wait and see what the Morning Vote does before deciding if a rematch would be worth seeing. --- The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/ (thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either) |
Yeah,
this doom and gloom stuff is getting a little ridiculous. I'm not sure
what people are expecting anymore, but it's obviously too much. Don't think a rematch is necessary. --- http://thengamer.com/guru/ |
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time---41.02% 53724 Final Fantasy X--------------------------------21.69% 28405 Metal Gear Solid 4----------------------------19.73% 25838 Super Smash Bros. Brawl-------------------17.56% 22994 TOTAL VOTES-----------------------------------------130961 Matches Completely Correct - 41 Matches Partially Correct - 21 Matches Completely Wrong - 0 Crew Prediction Challenge - 5 members get points Tran - 42 Moltar - 38 Guest - 37 HM - 36 Leon - 32 Lopen - 28 Ed - 26 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Tran gets the point for OoT, l3fty gets the point for FFX, Leon gets the point for MGS4 and Brawl HM - 61 Moltar - 57 Tran - 47 Guest (Luster, Zylo (3), HaRR, Kleenex (2), Soul, TRT (2), KP (4), Chaotic, Ngamer, GfK (3), Trout (3), BDawg (2), Luis, LMS (3), War, Ngirl, Mr3790 (3), l3fty (4)) - 37 Lopen - 29 Ed - 28 Leon - 26 --- Moltar Status: storm of loyalty Match 63 - Bracket: FF7 > OoT - Vote: OoT (503/640) |
All right, double points today. I just need to sweep today and I can finish 3rd from the bottom! you call it the same old, but if that was the case why didn't you pick it? Same reason you and a lot of other people didn't pick it: We thought LTTP wouldn't get quadrupled by OOT today. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "Krahenprophet is lightning...the rain transformed." |
Granted,
I probably would've picked FFVII anyway, but if it weren't for the fact
that LTTP was going to be there, we would've seen a lot more Ocarina of
Time pickers. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "Krahenprophet is lightning...the rain transformed." |
I think I had LTTP getting tripled and didn't think it'd affect the match. I still picked FF7. ah well. --- xyzzy OCARINA OF TIME I HATE YOU but Krakenprophet knows what's up |
I'm
actually kinda surprised that I was the only one who bothered to take
OoT. I figured at least one other people would have taken a gamble on
it. --- This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists? |
one other people --- This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists? |
But
OoT beating FFVII isn't a huge upset. There has always been a movement
toward it ever since the Nintendo boost in 2005. Sure, the majority
took FFVII, but no one is really surprised OoT is winning. This isn't
Cloud beating Link in 2003, that's for sure. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "Krahenprophet is lightning...the rain transformed." |
Wait a minute... you're telling me these guys wrote about this contest? ahaha oh u --- Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!! |
Plus, the whole reason people wanted
a bonus match was because they thought FFVII would just win because of
the SFF and thought OoT could beat it one-on-one. Now that OoT is
winning anyway, nobody really wants it. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "Krahenprophet is lightning...the rain transformed." |
Same reason you and a lot of other people didn't pick it: We thought LTTP wouldn't get quadrupled by OOT today. This!!!! I was all on the OoT > FF7 train pre-contest, but figured LttP would derail it. I blame you, LttP! If only you were doing 2% better like I thought! --- Moltar Status: storm of loyalty Match 63 - Bracket: FF7 > OoT - Vote: OoT (503/640) |
it's okay, Moltar. we can get monopoly money and blame Nintendo fanboys and feel better about ourselves. --- xyzzy OCARINA OF TIME I HATE YOU but Krakenprophet knows what's up |
are we doing writeups tonight? --- xyzzy OCARINA OF TIME I HATE YOU but Krakenprophet knows what's up |
Heh, I was just coming here to ask that. I don't really see a point to it, but I'll do it. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "Krahenprophet is lightning...the rain transformed." |
Whoo,
bonus match! Kind of a shame that SB listens to us the one time a
result is so obvious it won't matter... but still, neat. The most important thing though is that we need to make sure this Bonus draws HUGE votals- if OoT/FF7 outdraws the 4way final head to head, SB has no leg to stand on with his ridiculous "everyone loves 4ways way way more" stance. --- The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/ (thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either) |
Then stuff the poll to your heart's content! Not like it's an actual contest match! --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "Krahenprophet is lightning...the rain transformed." |
Yeah, Leon's got the right idea! --- The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/ (thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either) |
From: transience | #132 Sure if you want. Just post it here whenever. Not going to count it with the rest of the prediction stuff though. --- Moltar Status: storm of loyalty Match 63 - Bracket: FF7 > OoT - Vote: OoT (503/640) |
in fact... Moltar's Analysis hey hey hey guess what bonus match spoilers OoT still winz Moltar's Prediction: NintendoFAQs: 52% - SquareFAQs: 48% --- Moltar Status: storm of loyalty Match 63 - Bracket: FF7 > OoT - Vote: OoT (503/640) |
Lopen's Analysis Well, as much as this match is "boring," I think I'm going to enjoy seeing a 1v1 match-up for the first time in ever. Enjoy it enough to make a legit analysis without whining like I have for the last week. AMAZING! Seriously guys I'm sorry you had to limp through that I'll never do it again... worst comes to worst I'll just start writing crappy fanfiction loosely tied to the match at hand and throw an Oracle prediction at the end... though... you probably just skipped to percentages anyway, ha! Barring all outside factors, tomorrow's match should be closer because I believe the FF split hurts more than the Zelda split, if just a bit. I also think FF fans might be more inclined to rally than Zelda fans, especially considering it just got beat. In addition, I think seeing the exact same result twice in a row might turn some people off... no real basis for that cause it never happens in the PotDs for the GotY, but this is a different voting pool than the PotD... a larger one, and one I feel will be more whimsical than the normal crowd. Well, hey, L-Block lost last year in his invitational, right? Anyway... everyone rally all your friends, we've gotta make this one outdraw the normal final so Bacon gets it through his skull that the people demand 1v1s...! Lopen's Prediction: Final Fantasy VII with 51.39% --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Leonhart's Vote: Final Fantasy VII Final Fantasy VII - 100.01% Ocarina of Time - -0.01% --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "Krahenprophet is lightning...the rain transformed." |
You know what, I don't like this idea simply because we could have FFVII dominate easily and still have no answer. And by easily I mean doubling since OoT already won. |
transience's analysis (yeah, that's right, transience with a lowercase t for the first time in three goddamn years) I think that FFX overlaps with FF7 more than LTTP does with OOT. What does that mean? Well, if you remove FFX and LTTP, I think FFX fans are more likely to vote FF7 than LTTP fans are to vote OOT. LTTP fans strike me as being independent of OOT -- yeah, it got killed today just as bad as FFX did, but I think that's because everyone recognized FF7 and OOT as the only options. I think LTTP fans see OOT as the evil game that killed off 2d Zelda. They're probably more likely to vote OOT than FF7 still, but not nearly as high as FFX fans are with FF7. FFX fans tend to like FF7 a lot. Does that mean FF7 wins? Nah. Today's margin was too big. Plus FF7 probably has a built-in bracket advantage that gets it more votes. But I think it'll be closer. Kudos to Bacon for doing this, by the way. We should have this as the last match of the contest to determine the true winner every year. Then you have an actual winner and not just some weird first/second place resolution. transience's last predix: Ocarina of Time with 51.11% --- xyzzy |
Ooh, I got the #2 Oracle yesterday (despite having FFVII > OOT > FFX > LTTP)! ...Will it be enough to get me out of the basement?! --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "Krahenprophet is lightning...the rain transformed." |
Final Fantasy VII-------------------------------36.75% 52954 The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past--11.84% 17067 The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time----40.39% 58200 Final Fantasy X---------------------------------11.02% 15876 TOTAL VOTES-----------------------------------------144097 Matches Completely Correct - 41 Matches Partially Correct - 22 Matches Completely Wrong - 0 Results - Your new Lord and Master, Ocarina of Time. It didn't even break a sweat beating out FF7. LttP and FFX? Pretty much a non-factor. Crew Prediction Challenge - Guest gets the last point Tran - 42 Moltar - 38 Guest - 38 HM - 36 Leon - 32 Lopen - 28 Ed - 26 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Kleenex gets the point for FF7, Leon gets the point for OoT and LttP, and Moltar gets the point for FFX HM - 61 Moltar - 58 Tran - 47 Guest (Luster, Zylo (3), HaRR, Kleenex (3), Soul, TRT (2), KP (4), Chaotic, Ngamer, GfK (3), Trout (3), BDawg (2), Luis, LMS (3), War, Ngirl, Mr3790 (3), l3fty (4)) - 38 Lopen - 29 Ed - 28 Leon - 28 Crew Prediction Challenge Winners Spring Contest 2005 - Moltar, Soul, Outback, Inviso (4-way tie) Summer Contest 2005 - Soul Spring Contest 2006 - Soul Summer Contest 2006 - Moltar Character Battle VI - Guest Character Battle VII - Yoblazer Best Game Ever 2 - Transience Crew Accuracy Challenge Winners Character Battle VI - Yoblazer Character Battle VII - Yoblazer Best Game Ever 2 - Heroic Mario Congrats to the new Crew Prediction Champion, "the man with the lower-case t" transience, and the new Crew Accuracy Champion, Heroic "ZFS square 4 lyfe" Mario! Tran and HM: WE DA FANBOYZ, SON! --- Moltar Status: ALL HAIL KrahenProphet Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Yes, tied for last! --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "Krahenprophet is lightning...the rain transformed." |
aw yeah, ZFsience lives on --- xyzzy OCARINA OF TIME I HATE YOU but Krakenprophet knows what's up |
Haven't checked the bonus results yet, so here's an extra special just for fun BONUS WRITEUP! Oh joy! Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup Hmm, I just don't know about this SB fellow. We tell him to run a 1v1 Contest and he ignores us, we tell him to mix the eras and he ignores us, we suggest how to improve the bracket even with 4ways and era splits in place and he ignores us. Then we ask for an epic Ocarina v FF7 Bonus Poll, and he delivers... but delays the announcement to the point where by the time the match is confirmed, the result is already a foregone conclusion! I mean I give the guy credit for coming around lately (giving us Games like we wanted, letting us replace some games with others, having us make the match pics, now this bonus poll- all nice touches), but he seems to be doomed by bad timing or bad luck or something, as even when he has good intentions things never turn out quite as well as we would hope for. But ANYWAYS, let's talk about The Rematch of the Century Except Not Really! Ocarina took down FF7 with a little over 52% of the vote directly in their 4way match. Now normally I would say that as a result FF7 has no chance to reverse the decision, because LttP probably hands over 86% of its votes to OoT (because given the similar... well, everything across the series, if you love one Zelda it seems extremely likely that you'd support another one) whereas FFX probably gives FF7 only 78% of its votes or thereabouts (there's a more clear distinction between different games in the FF series and the fanbase is more fractured as a result- I could easily imagine 10% of FFX fans HATING 7 for one reason or another). When you combine that with the fact that LttP surpassed X's vote total last match, things look mighty grim for 7. In fact I would even go as far as to say that Ocarina would have an excellent shot at reversing its 54% loss to back in '04 by throwing that same number back in FF7's face here in 2009. HOWEVER, this match doesn't place in a vacuum- here in the real world there are certain intangibles that need to be taken into account, and two of those figure to work in FF's favor. 1. "The Revenge Vote". This factor has been highly overrated in the past, but even so, I could see something along these lines working against Zelda in this matchup. In the same way voters were upset with Zelda/FF dominance and backed L-Block and Snake the past two years, I could see people wanting to take Zelda back down a peg after it won so easily, and backing FF7 would certainly be the way to do it. Plus, doesn't it just make sense for some undecided voters to side with 7 in the hopes of keeping the result interesting, given how easily OoT took the poll yesterday? |
2.
"Nintendo fans are sometimes... kind of dumb." Back in 2004 we had that
very strange day where only people logged into their message board
accounts were having their votes counted in the Pokemon vs Xenogears
poll. Xeno was winning the match handily, but we figured G/S/C would do
much better after those results were wiped and the match got a fresh
start the following day- surely the unregistered "casual kiddies" would
be way more likely to back Pokemon, right? Instead Xeno just won by
EVEN MORE than the day before- to explain it we assumed that casual
unregistered Nintendo fans just weren't voting as often on the second
day, assuming their vote had already been counted. Then in 2006, Samus was eliminated in Day One of the Battle Royale. Yet in Day Two, Mario's vote percentage inexplicably went DOWN, despite the assumption that he had the most to gain from former Samus voters. Again, it appeared that Nintendo backers were confused by what they thought was a match they'd already cast their vote for and didn't look any closer. (This was somewhat backed up by overal votals plunging that day- they recovered in later days once everyone realized what was going on.) In other words, it seems possible that some of Zelda's support will evaporate here out of pure confusion. I don't know if I'd necessarily BET on that happening, but it seems a real enough possibly that, combined with point 1, I'm going to lower my prediction to Ocarina of Time with 53.11% Boy, sure feels good writing out a prediction in the classic old 1v1 format. Here's hoping I get to do that 63 more times in the next 5-6 months! --- The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/ (thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either) |
Character Battle VI - Yoblazer Character Battle VII - Yoblazer Best Game Ever 2 - Heroic Mario dethroned Tran rocked us all in the predix. --- There ain't no gettin' offa this train we're on |
AWESOME, we're 4000 votes ahead of yesterday's pace so far. Return of 1v1s, here we come! --- The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/ (thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either) |
