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Best Game Ever 2 Contest Analysis Crew (Part Five)

Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 6/5/2009 12:31:50 AM | message detail | close | filter | quote | #001
Thank God it's finally over: The "End of the Contest" Edition

Announcer: Welcome ladies and gentlemen to another edition of GameFAQs Contest Association! Tonight, we have a great show in store for you!

Audience: *cheers*

Announcer: First up, we have-

*The announcer is interrupted by Moltar’s entrance music*

Audience: *loud boos*

Commentator Jin Loss: BAH GAWD WHAT’S HE DOING OUT HERE?

Commentator Mitchell Kole: “The Viper” Master Moltar! Shades of pasts contests!

Moltar: So it’s that time of the year, contest time. It’s time for me to show why I am the best predictor in this company. In order to prove that I am the best, I will issue a challenge to anyone back there who thinks they know these contests better than me. And when I do predict the Best Game Ever 2 better than you, I will once again reclaim my GCA Analysis Title.

Audience: *boos*

*Leon’s entrance music hits, resulting in even more boos*

Mitchell Kole: OH MY! A rare appearance from The Ultimate Oppourtunist, Leon!

Leon: Listen up, Moltar. Now, I respect your prediction abilities, but everyone here knows you aren’t the best predictor in the company. I am! Yeah, that’s right. I’ll accept your challenge, and when I beat you, that title is going to be around my pretty waist.

Moltar: You? You?! The last time I saw you was when I beat you back in 2006. You aren’t even in my league. You aren’t worthy of accepting my challenge!

*Leon gets in Moltar’s face and the two argue, just then, this recognized intro plays*

WE DA FANBOYZ, SON

Audience: *huge cheers*

*The music of the tag team, Fanboyz, plays and Heroic Mario and Transience head down the ramp*

Jin Loss: It’s the Fanboyz! Business is about to pick up!

HM: you two need to chill out. the best predictors are right here, son.

Transience: that’s right, and when we win this challenge or whatever, that belt will go around my waist.

HM: uhhhh “whoops”, i think you mean my waist.

Transience: nope, i mean mine, son

*HM and Tran begin to argue*

Moltar: The two of you? You two are nothing but jokes. Neither of you will be getting my belt.

*The four men in the ring now argue*

*Lopen’s music then starts, drawing a negative reaction from the crowd. He is accompanied by his women.*

Mitchell Kole: Modified Humor!

Lopen: Listen here you rub-a-dub-dubs. None of you are the best because I am the best. I am Lopen, the greatest Analyzer of all the times!

Moltar: What? You couldn’t predict that the sun would rise tomorrow morning.

Leon: You couldn’t predict your way out of a paper bag!

HM: you couldn’t predict a lopen upset special!

Transience: you couldn’t predict…wait what

*The five men go back to bickering, and then…*

*Paper Rips*
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 60 - Bracket: MGS4 > TP - Vote: MGS4 (359/480)
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 6/5/2009 12:32:48 AM | message detail | delete | filter | quote | #002
Audience: *HUGE cheers*

Jin Loss: ED BELLIS! ED BELLIS! ED BELLIS!

Mitchell Kole: Vintage Markout!

*Ed Bellis heads down the ramp, a juicebox in his hand*

Ed Bellis: So I’m in the back listening to a bunch of macaronis crying about title shots, and I’m thinking, “You know, the one that really deserves the title is this son of a mammer! Don’t you think so, hermano?

Moltar: I don-

Ed Bellis: WHAT YOU THINK IS IRRELEVANT!

Audience: *cheers*

Ed Bellis: So now that I’m in this little shindig, I’m going to win it and finally become Analysis Champion, and that’s the bottom line, when Bellismania is cookin’!

*The General Manager of GCA, SBAllen emerges at the top of the ramp*

Audience: *mixed reaction*

SBAllen: Okay, I can’t have you guys taking up any more of my time, so this is what I’m going to do. Since our Analysis Title and Prediction Titles are vacant with Yoblazer’s retirement, I’m going to put them both on the line! The six of you, Master Moltar, Heroic Mario, Lopen, Transience, Leonhart, and Ed Bellis will come together to create the Contest Analysis Crew! The six of you will analyze each match and give your predictions on who will win each battle. The person who closest predicts the most matches will become the new GCA Prediction Champion, and the person who predicts the most matches correctly will be recognized as the new GCA Analysis Champion!

Audience: *chants “GCA! GCA! GCA!”*

SBAllen: And that’s not all, because you, the readers, will be able to get in on the action to! Each match will have a Guest Predictor! It’s your chance to be a part of the Crew and collectively go for the Gold!

Audience: *cheers*

*The six men talk it over in the ring*

Moltar: Alright, we accept!

SBAllen: That’s what I want to hear! Oh, and before I leave, I have one more announcement to make…

*Everyone is on the edge of their seats as to what the announcement is.*

SBAllen: The contest, Best Game Ever 2, will be…a four-way generational bracket!

Audience: *heavily mixed reaction*

Everyone in the ring: augh



Guest Anaysis - E-mail to mastermoltar@gmail.com upon completion. Make sure to get it in at least 5-6 hours before the match to ensure that your analysis is posted with the rest!

Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ - Read past Crew Topics here!
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 60 - Bracket: MGS4 > TP - Vote: MGS4 (359/480)
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/5/2009 12:34:04 AM | message detail | filter | quote | #003
The Ultimate Opportunist is ready to opportunize you!
---
"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Lopen | Posted 6/5/2009 12:53:10 AM | message detail | filter | quote | #004
Cash your Money In The Bank in against tranny for the championship match in three days. You can still win the crew accuracy challenge, Leon! He'll never see it coming!
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
shadow8021 | Posted 6/5/2009 9:42:23 AM | message detail | filter | quote | #005
tag
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2008 Hickory Cross Country
Becoming One
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 6/5/2009 7:19:25 PM | message detail | delete | filter | quote | #006
Going to need Guest write-ups for the two semi-final matches. Someone needs to jump on those!
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 60 - Bracket: MGS4 > TP - Vote: MGS4 (359/480)
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 6/5/2009 9:15:56 PM | message detail | delete | filter | quote | #007
Semifinals: Round 5 - Match 61 – Super Mario World vs. Super Mario Bros. 3 vs. Final Fantasy VII vs. The Legend of Zelda: Link to the Past

Moltar’s Analysis

Super Mario World
Round 1 - 45.78% vs. Final Fantasy, Battletoads and Prince of Persia
Round 2 - 54.13% vs. Final Fantasy IV, Final Fantasy and Mega Man 3
Round 3 - 32.14% vs. Super Mario Bros. 3, Final Fantasy IV and Sonic 1
Round 4 - 30.96% vs. Super Mario Bros. 3, The Legend of Zelda and Super Mario Bros.

World wins this time around

Super Mario Bros. 3
Round 1 - 75.85% vs. Monkey Island, SimCity and Tecmo Super Bowl
Round 2 - 48.68% vs. Sonic 1, Street Fighter 2 and Monkey Island
Round 3 - 32.76% vs. Super Mario World, Final Fantasy IV and Sonic 1
Round 4 - 29.00% vs. Super Mario World, The Legend of Zelda and Super Mario Bros.

SMB3 11:45’d its way into this match.

Final Fantasy VII
Round 1 - 55.05% vs. Mario Kart 64, Star Fox 64 and Suikoden
Round 2 - 47.30% vs. Goldeneye, Super Mario RPG and Mario Kart 64
Round 3 - 41.25% vs. Super Mario 64, Chrono Trigger and Goldeneye
Round 4 - 40.06% vs. Link to the Past, Super Mario 64 and Final Fantasy VI

What a beast

Link to the Past
Round 1 - 56.25% vs. Donkey Kong Country, Doom and Streets of Rage II
Round 2 - 50.49% vs. Super Metroid, Super Mario Kart and Donkey Kong Country
Round 3 - 38.38% vs. Final Fantasy VI, Super Metroid and Link’s Awakening
Round 4 - 23.14% vs. Final Fantasy VII, Super Mario 64 and Final Fantasy VI

Prevents this from being another Mario-fest.

*We now interrupt this regularly scheduled analysis for a surprise…announcement.*

Previously, Captains Squall and Tidus, as well as Mario and Link, entered into the main headquarters of Cloud to find an unconscious Terra and the traitor of Midgar, Sephiroth. Sephiroth then knocked Squall and Tidus out and revealed that he is one of the people behind all of the fighting. He then revealed that none of this would have been possible without the help of Cloud.

A world united,
Becomes divided,
War starts without fail
Now witness the tale
Intermission…

14 Online: Truth

*On the top floor of the tower*

*From a dark corner of the room, Cloud emerges*

Mario: Are you aware of what you caused?

Link: Do you have anything to say for yourself, Cloud?

Cloud: …

Link: Nothing…you disgust me.

Mario: C’mon Link, you know what we need to do now. *Both men prepare to attack*

Cloud: …Omnislash

*Cloud draws his sword and fires a large energy blast from it…at Sephiroth*

Sephiroth: ! *He is unable to dodge the blast and takes the full force of it.*

Mario: Huh? What’s this?

Link: Cloud? What’s he doing?

Sephiroth: Cloud…why

Cloud: I know what I did was wrong, but if it means finally putting an end to you, Sephiroth, then it will all be worth it.

Link: What do you mean?

Cloud: What Sephiroth said is the truth. I am the catalyst behind this “war” between our countries. You see, months ago, I learned of a plot that was being planned by evil forces. These evil forces were Bowser, Ganondorf and Sephiroth. Usually, they work independently trying to stir up trouble in the countries. However, this time, they collaborated to carry out their plan. Individually, the forces of Nintendo or Cuadrado could stop them, but the three of them together…would be a nearly undefeatable enemy. So I got in contact with others who could reach the trio and told them that I wanted to make a bargain.

Mario: A bargain?

Cloud: Yes, I told them that if they let me join them, I would help them take down our countries.

Link: You what?!
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 6/5/2009 9:16:25 PM | message detail | delete | filter | quote | #008
Cloud: I told them I was tired of being the Head Captain of the Midgar Squads and that I hated Cuadrado. I said that all I really wanted was absolute power; the power to change the world, the power to completely rule over people, the power to make my will into law. They let me join them as soon as I told them about the fake threat that Nintendo was planning to attack our land, which caused us to send out the order for Squads 1 and 6 to attack the Hidden Mushroom Village and the King of the Red Lions.

*Mario and Link are in shock at all of this*

Sephiroth: So why…why did you change your mind?

Cloud: What I said to you three on that day was partially true. I am not happy with the state of the world, and I did wish I had the power to change things, but…after seeing all of this fighting, and even watching men and women who put their complete trust in me fall for nothing…it made me realize that this isn’t the right way to change things.

Sephiroth: I see…I should have figured you were too soft to join us.

Cloud: And you three are too hardened to truly work together. The three of you were planning to betray each other once the goal was completed anyway. You all knew that deep in your black hearts. I just jumped the gun and betrayed the three of you first.

Sephiroth: Heh…that may be true, but you haven’t won yet.

Cloud: I know…so Link, Mario, you two get out of here and take my three captains with you.

Mario: But what about you?

Cloud: I have…unfinished business here. *Cloud’s energy starts to rise* Leave, quickly, or you will be killed too. ‘Ultimo Fantasía, Nana!’

~*To Be Continued*~

Mario’s splitting…Zelda game competing with them…where have I seen this before? Oh yeah!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3502

I have FF7 > LttP in my bracket because I believed they were the strongest and because LttP would be able to beat 2 Mario games while splitting, and I still believe that’s going to happen here. See, there’s a difference between the original LoZ and LttP. There’s a reason I had SMW and SMB3 over LoZ, but LttP over both Mario games here. LoZ was not strong enough to capitalize on that split, but LttP is. To show their differences in strength, LoZ wasn’t able to beat SMB1 (which is safely below 3/World), while LttP beat Mario 64, which looks to be up there with SMB3 and World. Hell, LoZ doing so well last round only makes me feel better about LttP here.

In other news, FF7 should do just as well, if not better, than it did last round. I’m expected SMB3/World to go in 3’s favor again too. It looks like the result of the two games depends on the competition, and in this match, it hinders World more.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: FF7 > LttP

Moltar’s Prediction is: FF7: 42% - LttP: 23% - SMB3: 19% - SMW: 16%



Lopen’s Analysis

I would've taken SMB3 here under normal circumstances... unfortunately SMW had to screw a potentially awesome match here. Good job!

FF7 > LttP. Mortal lock after seeing the much weaker Zelda approach both. Granted, at least there's ONE other Mario option here but... LttP would be favored against SMB3 without the interloper here.

I'll be rooting for SMB3 though!

Lopen's prediction:
Final Fantasy 7 - 44.99%
Link to the Past - 25.01%
Mario 3 - 16.99%
Mario World - 13.01%



Transience’s Analysis

Here we are, the third to last day of the contest, and we have.. a battle for third.

LTTP vs. Mario World or LTTP vs. Mario 3 would be an interesting battle, especially after Mario 64 gave LTTP everything it had. But LTTP vs. Mario 3 *and* Mario World? Game, set, match. LTTP really lucked out here. There is a veeeeeeeery small chance that Mario World and LTTP hurt each other a lot because they were *the* two Nintendo games on the SNES... but let's be honest, this isn't happening. Maybe in 1994 or something, not 2009.
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 6/5/2009 9:16:58 PM | message detail | delete | filter | quote | #009
So all that's left is round 3 of Mario 3 vs. Mario World, and arguably the most balanced one yet. No NES Mario games to get in the way. No 3 SNES games vs. 1 NES game. I guess you could say LTTP being here means advantage Mario 3, but it's closer than the rest of them. I'll back Mario 3 here as I've been doing since the beginning.

FF7 should dominate three old Nintendo games. Talk about overlap. What a disaster of a final. If Zelda 1 were here, we'd have a match; alas!

transience's prediction:

Final Fantasy VII - 43%
The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past - 25%
Super Mario Bros. 3 - 18%
Super Mario World - 14%


Leonhart’s Analysis

Super Mario World: Super Mario World got a measure of validation last round by managing to beat Mario 3. Now this is a battle for personal pride because chances are good that neither of these games are advancing to the finals. Mario World beat Mario 3 by a lot more than Mario 3 beat it the round before, so that’s one advantage it has. If you’re a believer in SNES LFF, then LTTP being there will hurt Mario World. We’ll see.

Super Mario Bros. 3: Last round, Mario 3 was stuffing like it was 2003. 11:45’d is going to become a contest meme around here. But hey, Bacon says it was legit, so what do I know? Anyway, this match is about as significant as it gets for two games battling for third place! Mario 3 won once, Mario World won once. This is the tiebreaker. Actually, they should just tie here. That’d be fitting.

Final Fantasy VII: Two straight 40% performances for Final Fantasy VII, building up for that finals showdown with Ocarina of Time. This is the final warm-up, and this is about as ideal of a situation as FFVII could get considering it’s facing three potential top ten games. You’ve got three old school Nintendo games, the most recent of which was released in 1992, and Final Fantasy VII, the only game from the so-called “modern” (that is to say, Post-Nintendo Monopoly) era. It got 40% last round despite FFVI’s presence and 41% the round before despite Chrono Trigger’s presence. I’d be very surprised if it couldn’t get 40% here. Final Fantasy VII only seems to look better the stronger the competition gets.

The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past: For a while, it looked like Mario 64 was going to make an epic comeback to beat A Link to the Past, but Zelda managed to stall out for the last few hours to hold it off. Now it’s going to be facing two Mario titles. I think Link to the Past should win this one fairly easily for a couple of reasons. First, I doubt Mario 3 or Mario World are much stronger indirectly than Mario 64, and then the fact that they’ll be splitting votes makes beating Zelda that much harder. Secondly, we saw a weaker Zelda game nearly take advantage of triple Mario LFF to beat Mario 3, so A Link to the Past looks to be in good shape here.

Leonhart’s Vote: Mario 3, to win the Mario war!

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Super Mario World – 18.52%
Super Mario Bros. 3 – 18.53%
Final Fantasy VII – 42.44%
A Link to the Past – 20.51%



Crew Consensus: FF7 > LttP yawn
Ed Bellis | Posted 6/5/2009 9:33:50 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #010
Match 61

One may think that this match is easy pickings: Final Fantasy VII continues to be the BEST GAME EVER, while A Link to the Past gets second, having trounced narrowly beaten Mario 64 last round.

I will go for the upset here and vouch for the fact that THERE WILL BE MASSIVE SFF ONGOINGS HEREIN. Mario World and LTTP will SFF each other so that Mario 3 takes second. This logic works if you assume that both Marios 3 and World are stronger than 64, which… makes no sense given that Chrono Trigger beat both of them heads-up in 2004, but you know what? **** 2004. THIS IS 2009. THIS IS THE YEAR OF MARIO.

Super Mario World with 19%
Super Mario Bros. 3 with 23%
Final Fantasy VII with 38%
The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past with 20%

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This was KING BELLIS LOL
ed status: [00:26] <pxl> i'd steamboat her willie if you know what i mean
transients | Posted 6/5/2009 9:35:40 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #011
zzz zone
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xyzzy
transients | Posted 6/5/2009 9:36:04 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #012
whoa wait Bellis went with SMB3 against all odds

hmm
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/5/2009 10:12:25 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #013
Hey, it worked today!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Lopen | Posted 6/5/2009 10:17:57 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #014
Here's hoping Ed Bellis is right! There's a small chance, I suppose. I don't think that two Mario games is at the point where you're saturated and get a huge dropoff in strength like it was with LoZ. If I didn't think LttP was fairly close to SMB3 in the first place I would've been with him there.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
Ngamer64 | Posted 6/5/2009 10:25:16 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #015
Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup

Oh jeez, this is BRUTAL. Ocarina is doing to Melee exactly what it pulled on Mario 64 and Goldeneye back in '04... except SSBM doesn't get the excuse of sharing the N64, AND we thought it would hold up better than anything else (non-Pokemon), AND we thought it was flat out stronger than Mario 64/GE to begin with. Triple ouch! Looking these results over, you can't help but feel bad for Pokemon. All season long RBY has battled long odds, beating off tough competition despite having an anchor named OoT around its neck most of the time (and as Melee is showing us today, that's not a light anchor by any means!), yet it gets snubbed one step short of the Championship (seriously now, Brawl/TP/MGS4 were never going to catch it) only because FFX was handed perfect circumstances. And in other news, check out Ocarina somehow hulking up enough to actually outdo FF7 directly despite drawing its two worst possible opponents- now that's just flat out scary! That makes it 3 rounds Ocarina 1 round FF7 heading into their Championship showdown; at this poing you've pretty much got to be liking OoT in that one unless MSG4 stuns the world to knock out FFX.

But speaking of MGS4... is it even going to be alive in a few days to attempt that upset? Pre-contest I'd have called you crazy if you didn't think so- the Wii was drawing huge backlash internetwide and between that and normal same-system LFF there was no way both Brawl and TP could advance. And although I'd take RE4 > MGS4 1v1, RE was going to be losing some of its GC and Wii fanbase to the other Nintendo options, making MGS the clear choice for first place. Now, however, I'm not so sure...

MGS4 wasn't in such a great position last round, as I detailed in that writeup, but regardless of circumstances getting 59%'d by a game you put up 48% on while riding your GotY high is cause for concern. As for the Wii backlash... WHAT Wii backlash? Brawl looked fantastic in pulling down 37% despite strong competition last round while TP's 32% against even stronger opponents was perhaps even more impressive. As for the same company LFF... WHAT LFF? Aside from extreme threeway cases like today or that Mariox3 fiasco, the leach factor has been conspicuous only in its absence this season, especially where huge playrate series like Zelda and Smash Bros are concerned. Also, I don't think the presence of RE does MGS any favors in this one- as we saw last round, there appears to be something of an overlap between these series that could very well limit them both here, at least slightly, and I'm thinking that spells doom for MGS4's chances.

As for the all-Nintendo battle at the top of the poll, I've got to admit that I must be missing something. Why is Brawl such an overwhelming favorite here, again? Sure it beat down Galaxy, but that's looking more and more like a case of Mario not being his usual self post-M64 rather than SSBB being any kind of superhero. And after seeing the way OoT took Melee to the woodshed in this most recent result, its become even more difficult to imagine Brawl plastering TP with Wii SFF as most seem to have predicted. I mean granted TP is no Ocarina, and I do still give Brawl the upper hand in this relationship due to recency and being the #1 "must own" Wii title on the site for the past year, but I still think Zelda puts up a pretty decent fight.
Ngamer64 | Posted 6/5/2009 10:25:28 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #016
Now I said that pre-Contest I'd have taken RE4 > MGS4 in a 1v1, but after all that we've seen so far this season... I still would! Unfortunately last round kind of spoiled the "surprise" regarding RE running into trouble when other mature action titles like MGS combine with GameCube or Wii games that steal some of its support from those system, and so I'm not seeing any way for this game to stay out of the basement. Even so, its just too well-loved to be fourth place factor'd IMO- ought to manage to avoid the teens, though I doubt it ever seriously contends for third place.

And if all of the above nonsense-talk comes true, we'll be looking at something right around

Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 28.62%
The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess - 25.10%
Metal Gear Solid 4 - 24.92%
Resident Evil 4 - 21.36%

I... just don't know about that anymore!

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The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either)
ZFS | Posted 6/5/2009 10:55:24 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #017
woo just got home better hurry


Our The Best Game Ever Final Fantasy VII, ZELDA, and two Mario games. This shouldn't take a whole lot of thought. Given that Zelda 1 nearly upset Mario 3, and was close to Mario World, LttP shouldn't have any problem taking advantage of the Mario split. Easy choice.

FFVII should look great today, too. Not only is there a big Nintendo split here -- and FFVII will reap the rewards of it, looking great heading into the final -- but the game also went up on PSN a couple of days ago. I'm not sure what kind of effect that could have, but it's notable. FFVII hasn't be re-released in years. For whatever it's worth, Advent Children Complete also recently came out, but this probably doesn't matter.

bring on the domination

Final Fantasy VII -- 41%
Link to the Past -- 22%
Super Mario World -- 19%
Super Mario Bros. 3 -- 18%

Bracket: Final Fantasy VII > Link to the Past
Favorite: Final Fantasy VII

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http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif
th3l3fty | Posted 6/5/2009 10:59:07 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #018
Fill-in Quest Pt. 3

So much for that "obvious first" yesterday!
Today's really is obvious, though, with the pre-contest favorite continuing to mow down its opponents. Second place shouldn't be too much of a surprise here, either, with SMW and SMB3 taking each other out in Mario's last stand, opening a clear path for LttP.

As for that matchup, Bros. 3 should come out ahead. Even the slightest bit of SNES overlap should be enough to give it the go-ahead.

Super Mario World - 18.33%
Super Mario Bros. 3 - 18.72%
Final Fantasy VII - 41.24%
The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past - 21.61%
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 6/6/2009 11:42:35 AM | message detail | delete | filter | quote | #019
Zelda: Twilight Princess-------23.5% 29209
Resident Evil 4----------------22.18% 27563
Super Smash Bros. Brawl---27.12% 33707
Metal Gear Solid 4-------------27.2% 33812
TOTAL VOTES--------------------------124291


Matches Completely Correct - 39
Matches Partially Correct - 21
Matches Completely Wrong - 0


Results - Despite getting beaten badly last round, MGS4 still takes first here, narrowly beating out Brawl. Brawl made a fierce comeback attempt, but fell short in the end (familiar?) TP and RE4 don't end up too far behind either.


Post-Match Comments - Looks like TP dragged Brawl down pretty hard here. Combine that with MGS4 having a bit of a stand-out effect, and it isn't too surprising to see it win. RE4/TP also ends up close again like in Round 2...so what happened in Round 3?


Next Round Preview - OoT/FFX/MGS4/Brawl...no surprises here


Crew Prediction Challenge - No pointz

Tran - 40
Moltar - 36
Guest - 35
HM - 34
Leon - 30
Lopen - 27
Ed - 26


Crew Accuracy Challenge - Ed gets the point for Brawl, Lopen gets the point for MGS4, HM and Tran get points for TP, and l3fty gets the point for RE4

HM - 61
Moltar - 55
Tran - 46
Guest (Luster, Zylo (3), HaRR, Kleenex (2), Soul, TRT (2), KP (4), Chaotic, Ngamer, GfK (3), Trout (3), BDawg (2), Luis, LMS (3), War, Ngirl, Mr3790 (3), l3fty (3)) - 36
Ed - 28
Lopen - 27
Leon - 24
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 61 - Bracket: FF7 > LttP - Vote: SMW (375/512)
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/6/2009 12:19:30 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #020
Darn it, I gotta sweep the next three matches to get out of the basement! Here we go!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
transience | Posted 6/6/2009 12:24:30 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #021
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/6/2009 12:25:51 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #022
My bracket score is way higher than that, and I've got him beat in prediction points! Looks like I'll get half right half wrong, 32 points!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Lopen | Posted 6/6/2009 12:27:37 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #023
God dammit tranny put that away. We shall speak of it never again.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 6/6/2009 9:02:26 PM | message detail | delete | filter | quote | #024
Semifinals: Round 5 - Match 62 – The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs. Final Fantasy X vs. Metal Gear Solid 4 vs. Super Smash Bros. Brawl

Moltar’s Analysis

Ocarina of Time
Round 1 - 53.79% vs. Final Fantasy IX, Half-Life and Chrono Cross
Round 2 - 49.36% vs. Final Fantasy VIII, Starcraft and Final Fantasy IX
Round 3 - 38.70% vs. Pokemon R/B/Y, Metal Gear Solid and Final Fantasy VIII
Round 4 - 40.76% vs. Final Fantasy X, Pokemon R/B/Y and Super Smash Bros. Melee

You know OoT, FF7 hasn’t fallen below 40% yet.

Final Fantasy X
Round 1 - 45.92% vs. Metal Gear Solid 2, Morrowind and Silent Hill 2
Round 2 - 31.49% vs. Kingdom Hearts, Metal Gear Solid 2 and Vice City
Round 3 - 27.58% vs. Final Fantasy X, Kingdom Hearts and Diablo II
Round 4 - 23.87% vs. Ocarina of Time, Pokemon R/B/Y and Super Smash Bros. Melee

Be proud FFX, you beat out two games that are stronger than you!

Metal Gear Solid 4
Round 1 - 41.91% vs. Portal, Bioshock and LittleBigPlanet
Round 2 - 35.50% vs. Fallout 3, Portal and Halo 3
Round 3 - 26.59% vs. Super Smash Bros. Brawl, Fallout 3 and Call of Duty 4
Round 4 - 27.20% vs. Super Smash Bros. Brawl, Twilight Princess and Resident Evil 4

all hail and hope for some ffx upsetz

Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Round 1 - 47.05% vs. Grand Theft Auto IV, Street Fighter IV and Persona 4
Round 2 - 41.06% vs. Call of Cuty 4, Grand Theft Auto IV and Super Mario Galaxy
Round 3 - 36.68% vs. Metal Gear Solid 4, Fallout 3 and Call of Duty 4
Round 4 - 27.12% vs. Metal Gear Solid 4, Twilight Princess and Resident Evil 4

You got past TP, but now you’ve got OoT!

*We now interrupt this regularly scheduled analysis for the last…time.*

Previously, Cloud showed his true colors by revealing that he had misled Sephiroth and the other villains. He explained his reasons for his actions and attacked Sephiroth. He then told Link and Mario to take the knocked-out Captains and escape the tower.

A world united,
Becomes divided,
War starts without fail
Now witness the tale
Intermission…

Final: Fantasy

*Outside the Tower *

Rinoa: Ha ha ha ha ha! You’re in there and I’m out here! You can’t get me!

*Link and Mario emerge from the tower and see their allies trapped*

Mario: Huh? Luigi, Peach, Yoshi?

Link: Zelda? My crew? What happened?

Goron: These fools trapped us!

Auron: Our captains!

Rinoa: Squally! *Auron and Rinoa see Link and Mario supporting their captains, who had only re-awakened a short while ago* Are you okay?

Squall: Rinoa…I’m fine. We were attacked by Sephiroth.

Auron: Sephiroth? He’s here?

Tidus: Yes…but Cloud is taking care of him now. Vivi, release those prisoners.

Vivi: Yes Captain Tidus. *Vivi makes the cage around the Nintendo character disappear*

Peach: We’re glad to see you two make it out of there unharmed.

Zelda: Yeah, we were worried.

Link: We’re fine, but he have to get back to Nintendo immediately.

Mario: It’s under attack!

Yoshi: Yoshi? (What?)

Rinoa: Waaah, what’s that? *Points at the sky*

*The other characters look up and see a giant meteor aimed for the tower.*

Squall: Everyone, evacuate the area! Now!

*Inside the tower*

Sephiroth: Are you that desperate to stop me? Using your Overlimit here? Besides, even if you beat me, Bowser and Ganondorf will still succeed in their mission.

Cloud: I’ve already sent Vincent and Tifa to hold off Bowser and Ganondorf until the Nintendo guys get back home. And…if destroying this tower and risking my own life will stop you, then it will all be worth it. In the end, the three of you will be stopped! Meteor!

*A meteor crashes into the tower, sending it crashing to the ground.*

~*End?*~
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 6/6/2009 9:02:56 PM | message detail | delete | filter | quote | #025
It’s time for part 2 of “Most boring semi-final matches ever”. I have OoT > FFX in my bracket. Brawl stands no chance here with OoT beating it down, and MGS4 vs. FFX goes in FFX’s direction.

It’s kind of sad that the semi-finals actually ended up being exactly what I predicted and will probably end up exactly how I figured they would. I thought these four-way matches were supposed to be all crazy and wacky and make no sense. Even I’m tired of hearing the “bububububububut UNPREDICTIBLE” defense. I guess it’s true for the earlier rounds when “whatever” is beating out “who cares” for second place in some meaningless early match, but when we actually get to the big dogs and stuff that matters, we get either boring SFF-fests or predictable stuff like this. I mean look at the Top 20-25ish games. The amount of great matches between them is almost too many to count with how close they’re going to end up, but in the end, not only do we end up with only more speculation about them, but also results that mean nothing thanks to the nature of four-ways. What a drag this whole contest has been.

Anyway, OoT takes first here, and should end up in the mid-high 30’s. This pack is more diverse than FF7’s, so that’s why it won’t get as high. Brawl takes last too. I mean, if TP can put enough hurt on it to make it lose to MGS4, OoT should rock it here. FFX/MGS4 is looking to go in FFX’s favor, but it shouldn’t win by too much. MGS4 has a shot, but it would have to take nearly everything from last round with the top Nintendo game and one of Square’s strongest games thrown in. Not seeing that happening.

Hell, this is looking to go exactly like this:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3504

Such a stupid contest…

Moltar’s Bracket Says: OoT > FFX

Moltar’s Prediction is: OoT: 39% - FFX: 25% - MGS4: 21% - Brawl: 15%



Transience’s Analysis

I see tonight's match like this: what's stronger, Brawl or Melee?

We can start by counting Brawl out - given what happened to Melee and how Brawl had trouble with TP in the poll, OOT is just going to kill Brawl.

Anyway, Brawl vs. Melee. Here's what we have:

- FFX got 45% on Melee (with KH in the poll - if you think that negatively affected FFX, it ends up looking better)
- MGS4 got 42% on Brawl in their one "fair" match

Based on this, if you think Melee is stronger than Brawl, FFX wins easily. If you think they're about equal, FFX wins a close one. If you think Brawl is considerably stronger, MGS4 can win.

I think Brawl and Melee about equal, so I'll be backing FFX here. I've been big on MGS4 but that 42% just wasn't a good performance. I'm big on Brawl too but MGS4 needed to at least be kinda close. There's some thought that Brawl overperformed in that round 3 match thanks to standing out so much, but I don't buy it. Then again, the numbers do look a little better if MGS4 makes a match of it. ehhhh.

I'll say that FFX wins in a fairly close match, but nothing that's ever really in doubt. FFX is stronger than FF8 and MGS4 is probably about equal to MGS. It'll need to be clearly stronger than MGS to win this - something I've backed for a long time, but after that 42% I have to back off a little bit. I'll be curious to see how this plays out. This is like our last piece of the "top 10 games" puzzle. MGS4 vs. FFX is one of the rare straight-up matches we have in this contest. Let's see how new vs. kinda new goes.

As for Ocarina, it's going to need a really big performance to match FF7's week of dominance. I think it can do it, but it'll need to go higher than it did last round for me to give it a legit shot at winning the contest.

transience's prediction:

The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 40%
Final Fantasy X - 25%
Metal Gear Solid 4 - 21%
Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 14%
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 6/6/2009 9:03:42 PM | message detail | delete | filter | quote | #026
Leonhart’s Analysis

The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time: Boring and obvious match so I’ll keep this short. We’ve practically seen three-fourths of this match before anyway. Ocarina of Time dominates, high 30s-low 40s, looking forward to that match we’ve been waiting for since the contest began! Only a day away!

Final Fantasy X: Final Fantasy X had no problem beating R/B/Y last round, something Metal Gear Solid could not do. You can blame that on Melee’s presence if you like, and I wouldn’t necessarily disagree with you, but I don’t think MGS would have beaten R/B/Y by 4000 in that same scenario. At best, FFX/MGS is a toss-up, and I don’t think MGS4 is as strong as the original. Therefore, I think FFX has this one.

Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots: The Brawl/MGS4 rivalry is 3-2 in favor of Brawl, but MGS4 should be able to tie it up at the end of the contest here. Never mind that two of those wins weren’t due to MGS4’s own strength! Irrelevant! I don’t think it advances here though. It just hasn’t shown it’s got what it takes. 42% on Brawl compared to 45% on Melee with KH tied to it…It’s pretty obvious who has the advantage here.

Super Smash Bros. Brawl: The only thing to watch for from Brawl is to see if it can hold up to Ocarina of Time better than Melee did. Even if it does, unless it’s by a wide margin, I don’t think it says anything about the Brawl/Melee debate because Brawl doesn’t have to deal with Pokemon here. Regardless, it should get last place here.

Leonhart’s Vote: As always, the defense pleads “Final Fantasy X!”

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Ocarina of Time – 39.54%
Final Fantasy X – 23.59%
Metal Gear Solid 4 – 19.51%
Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 17.36%



Crew Consensus: OoT > FFX 3-0…apparently the majority doesn’t care to analyze the match!
transience | Posted 6/6/2009 9:13:58 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #027
wow, that's kinda embarrassing, we either need to get new crew people or put the thing out of its misery.
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xyzzy
http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg
Lopen | Posted 6/6/2009 9:42:01 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #028
I've only missed the deadline twice this whole contest, tranny! That being said, I'm not sure I'd mind being replaced... I definitely don't feel I was up to par this contest, in terms of quality of picks or quality of write-ups. I'm not saying this being my swansong for the crew is a lock, but I'm just saying... well, I'm just saying next time we have a bracket I don't like I'm not going to hold you guys down.

Anyway

Lopen's Analysis:

Metal Gear Solid 4 has a decent chance here... but I'm not going to pick it. Metal Gear Solid lost to Pokemon which lost to FFX... and I'd be absolutely dumbstruck if MGS4 was stronger than MGS. The only potential for upset I can see here is...

... if

... people finally snap to the fact that this is lame and exclaim to themselves: "Final Fantasy and ZELDA mania! What is this garbage!"

Well that settles it. Rather than be bleak and call for Zelda/FF'sville I will tell it like it is. This is when the masses finally realize that Zelda. This is it... MGS4's... semifinal mission. GLORIOUS VICTORY. "THE MAN"'s run ends here!

Believe in the MGS4 miracle run!

Lopen's Prediction:
METAL GEAR SOLID 4 SON - 52.61%
ZELDAFEAR NOT HERE - 29.01%
Final Fantasy X - 10.02%
Super Smash Brothers Bawl - 8.36%
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
ZFS | Posted 6/6/2009 9:44:13 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #029
Well, we're down to two days left, but these might be the least interesting two days of the contest, which is no good when we're talking about maybe one our worst contests ever, right up there with 2k4.

Today's match shouldn't be much different than yesterday's. The expected result will be what happens here. Ocarina of Time is going to prove again that it and Final Fantasy VII on a whole separate tier from the rest of the competition, not letting FFX come within 40% despite another Nintendo game being in the poll.

I think today will also prove that Brawl isn't any more SFF resistant, or any stronger than Melee. Brawl is strong, but color me surprised if it's top 10. Not that we'll be able to tell that here, thanks to OoT, but I don't think it would beat FFX 1v1, which Melee would probably do by the slimmest of margins.

The only thing that could make this an interesting match is if MGS4's PS3 fanbase holds up well against OoT. Some people have talked up the idea that MGS4 will do better with stronger competition, but I don't know that I'm buying that. We'll see what happens.

Ocarina of Time -- 35%
Final Fantasy X -- 26%
Metal Gear Solid 4 -- 24%
Smash Bros. Brawl -- 15%

Bracket: Ocarina of Time > Final Fantasy X
Favorite: Final Fantasy X

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http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif
transience | Posted 6/6/2009 9:45:03 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #030
haha

Leon he's letting you back in this!
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xyzzy
http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/6/2009 9:45:49 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #031
Aw yeah, for old time's sake.

I'm gonna laugh if Lopen gets the Brawl point.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Lopen | Posted 6/6/2009 9:47:30 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #032
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Ed Bellis | Posted 6/6/2009 9:47:41 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #033
Match 62

best game ever

Super Smash Bros. Brawl with 100%
who cares with 0%
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This was KING BELLIS LOL
ed status: [00:26] <pxl> i'd steamboat her willie if you know what i mean
Lopen | Posted 6/6/2009 9:48:40 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #034
Actually let's just let my first analysis stand it's funner that way.

I WILL BE A GOD WHEN IT HAPPENS.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/6/2009 9:49:03 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #035
Aw yeah Ed Bellis with the Brawl point
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Ed Bellis | Posted 6/6/2009 9:49:35 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #036
Since we're being honest here, I do appreciate Moltar letting me on the crew. Shame I couldn't live up to the standards of analysis you guys constantly put out. I'd blame it by and large on how disinterested I've been in the contest all throughout, but I don't want to sound like a broken record at this point. >_>
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This was KING BELLIS LOL
ed status: [00:26] <pxl> i'd steamboat her willie if you know what i mean
ZFS | Posted 6/6/2009 9:51:09 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #037
I'm tempted to join in on this fun with the FFX upsetz

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http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/6/2009 9:52:41 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #038
Well, 4-ways just aren't as fun to write for, honestly. I have enjoyed being on the Crew this year though. Thanks for the opportunity, Moltar.

(FFX > MGS4 forever)
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 6/6/2009 9:55:20 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #039
From: transience | #027
wow, that's kinda embarrassing, we either need to get new crew people or put the thing out of its misery.

yo
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In-de-structable. Nothing's gonna stop me now.
http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg
Lopen | Posted 6/6/2009 9:57:42 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #040
I had suspected this would happen when I first saw the bracket.... then I made this ridiculous bracket and said to myself "man this contest CAN be awesome" and agreed to be in the crew. I shoulda went with my gut.

Then I finished in last by like 200 points and realized "no, no it can't." I'm not going to say this contest was predictable... I got a ton of picks wrong even when I wasn't in raving maniac mode, but none of them were very interesting. They involved things that crush my soul like Starcraft going out in R2 or Halo losing to FREAKIN WOW.

I'd hate to say it... but I think, seeing this, that joke characters have been very important to the characters contest. Just imagine if in 2007 we got Link > Cloud... again, and the same in 2008. I think I'd need to evacuate my stomach into my mouth and out all over my monitor.

However, while complaining about all of this to my eternal enemy Smurf, he said something that was probably true: Games will be more static than characters over the years. I mean, Kingdom Hearts can boost Cloud, but it's not likely to boost FF7. We definitely do not need one of these every year, that's for sure.

Aw yeah turning the analysis crew into the whiner crew one step at a time.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
Lopen | Posted 6/6/2009 10:00:43 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #041
Well, 4-ways just aren't as fun to write for, honestly.

I disagree on that. I think my favorite year to write for was 2007... weird ass upsets all over the place, Master Chief tearing things up, GAME FUEL. It was glorious! I think it's the games more than the format... it's hard for me to say... write about Sephiroth fanfiction when FF7 is in the match instead of Sephiroth.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 6/6/2009 10:03:48 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #042
Game contest sux bring on the quotes
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No matter what, no matter how, I know I'll make it through somehow.
http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/Saturn.gif
transience | Posted 6/6/2009 10:05:15 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #043
too much doom and gloom in here. this is a greaty contest for learning stuff, way better than the crap last year. not even an awful bracket and format can ruin five years of buildup.

kinda glad it's coming to an end though. the Nintendo and Square dominance is a bit much.
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xyzzy
http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 6/6/2009 10:07:52 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #044
The first couple rounds of the contest were pretty cool, but from the 3rd round onward I've kinda lost interest and at this point I don't even care how it's going to end. Maybe it's because my bracket sucks! Dunno.
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I've been waiting for this moment all my life - it's my destiny.
http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg
transience | Posted 6/6/2009 10:08:44 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #045
I'll end up on the leaderboard if FFX pulls it off here. kinda sad, really.

so will Moltar.
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xyzzy
http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 6/6/2009 10:09:35 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #046
OoT > FFX, FF7 > OoT happens I'll probably end up close!

Which is even sadder.
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In-de-structable. Nothing's gonna stop me now.
http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg
ZFS | Posted 6/6/2009 10:10:25 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #047
contest can be redeemed with a Final Fantasy VII victory

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http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif
Lopen | Posted 6/6/2009 10:17:56 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #048
Last year had the hero Pikachu which beats any result we've had this year tbqh.

Contest ranking time:

Games 2004 > SC2k7 > SC2k3 > SC2k5 > SC2k2 > Villains (I went there) > SC2k6 > SC2k8 > Series > SC2k4 > Top 10 list > Games 2009
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
Lopen | Posted 6/6/2009 10:20:06 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #049
Also: More than ever I feel a tag team contest would be pretty cool.

We don't even need to pair the big guns with fodder, either. Link/Ganondorf I think would be beatable by a lot of teams of lesser characters. Throw Cloud with Aeris or something.
---
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/6/2009 10:21:31 PM | message detail | filter | quote | #050
SC2K3 > Games 2004 > SC2K7 > SC2K6 > Games 2009 > SC2K5 > SC2K8 > Villains > Series
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
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