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Best Game Ever 2 Contest Analysis Crew (Part Four)

ZFS | Posted 5/25/2009 9:21:09 PM | message detail | filter | #251
Crew gettin' it wrong today!

a metal slime appears
transience | Posted 5/25/2009 9:55:56 PM | message detail | filter | #252
time to get off this FF4 train
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/25/2009 10:19:59 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #253
I just realized I botched my prediction. Don't think this will be the first 105% match!

Moltar’s (Revised) Prediction is: SMB3: 34% - SMW: 27% - FFIV: 24% - Sonic 1: 15%
Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 49 - Bracket: LoZ > SMB - Vote: LoZ (175/256)
transience | Posted 5/25/2009 11:03:17 PM | message detail | filter | #254
closer to Sonic than Mario World owned

wonder if that holds.
MetricTrout | Posted 5/25/2009 11:09:58 PM | message detail | filter | #255
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
MetricTrout | Posted 5/25/2009 11:10:36 PM | message detail | filter | #256
Super Mario Bros. 3: 33%
Super Mario World: 32%
Sonic the Hedgehog: 19%
Final Fantasy II: 16%

Wow, I was almost dead on with SMB3/SMW.

And way off with Sonic/FF2, but hey, still pretty good!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2009 11:11:21 PM | message detail | filter | #257
"It's friggin' MARIO!" prevails again.

I wonder how Mario 64 would do in the place of either game.
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/25/2009 11:11:28 PM | message detail | filter | #258
Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup

Wow, really nice showing from Zelda today. We must have been right about the Tetris "icon overlap" and MM platformer LFF, as this is a heck of a turnaround from R1- Zelda's actually come back to the point now where this might have been a real shootout given a more balanced match pic. Props to MM2 for holding up better than I expected, but some major anti-props are in order for Tetris. Gah, I was already fully aware of how dumb I was to put faith in you in my bracket, no need to rub salt in the wound and ruin my Oracle as well!

Now then, everyone seems really hyped for tonight; I'm even seeing people say this has "match of the season" potential. And I have to... agree! This is one of those extremely rare cases where you've got three games up top that could literally finish in any order- and where that's true NOT because they're all untested lower-midcarders (as we've seen a few times) but rather because two of them are extremely strong and the other is also pretty strong (probably) and in an ideal position. (Oh yeah, and I guess Sonic's hanging around as well. Let's just put that in last but expect that, like MM today, it's not going to utterly fall apart.) Great, now let's move on to

The battle of the Marios! I've seen 3 and World and 64 debated back and forth so many times in stats over the years; great that we finally get to put 2/3rds of that debate to bed once and for all tonight! Now I realize how incredible SMW looked last round, but ehhh, the final percentages there made so little sense that I've got to chalk it up as some kind of weird fluke. We're already seen that in big time Nintendo clashes like this (see: Zelda 1/Mario 1) respect and "iconic" and nostalgia votes play a major role, so give me Mario 3 for the win tonight. I do agree it would make sense for the game to have lost a little of its steam since it 60/40'd World in the last Favorite Mario poll, so something more along the lines of a 56% win seems reasonable here.

Now for the second coolest question... does Mario taking up 50% of the poll result in anti-voting, as apparently happened last round when Final Fantasy took up two spots? I think it might, but I doubt it will be enough! Old school Square just has such a small (but dedicated) fanbase that fracturing it whatsoever is devastating, whereas the voting pool for international superhits like Mario 1/3/W/64 is so huge that even splitting it three ways might not necessarily doom the series to poor performances. And that's a theory that I'm thinking we'll be able to test next round, since I'm going to go ahead and predict a R4 Mario 1/Zelda 1/Mario 3/Mario World clash of the titans!

HOWEVER, I do think that FF will manage to keep this one close- there's just too much working in its favor for it not to, especially with a brand name that powerful urging it on. I'm thinking we'll see something along the lines of FF4 putting on a big time show overnight that has World scared for a while before coming apart at the seams once the sun rises, resulting in a score along the lines of:

Super Mario Bros. 3 - 34.13%
Super Mario World - 26.02%
Final Fantasy IV - 25.73%
Sonic the Hedgehog - 14.13%

Yup. Okay M3, show us what you're made of!

The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/25/2009 11:28:07 PM | message detail | filter | #259
Wow, I thought Mario 3 > Mario World was *my* upset special. Apparently it's also the crew consensus.

And it's whats happening right now! Final Fantasy IV = Nintendo game CONFIRMED!!!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2009 11:32:28 PM | message detail | filter | #260
Wow, full points for both round 3 matches so far, unless Mario World comes back and wins this.

Maybe three in a row if LTTP still beats FFVI.
transience | Posted 5/25/2009 11:35:51 PM | message detail | filter | #261
my bracket suddenly looks smart here with Mario 3 > Mario World and Zelda > Mario 3. plus I've got FF6 > LTTP tomorrow and OOT > MGS later on. too bad I took FF10 > Melee expecting Metroid Prime to be there.

I dunno about that FF6 > LTTP result though. it's a dangerous pick.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2009 11:37:41 PM | message detail | filter | #262
Yeah, I've got FFX > Melee later this round, too. Need OoT > FFVIII to pay off though. That'd be a huge one there.

FFVII > CT (I still think it can happen)
FFX > Melee
TP > RE4
Brawl > MGS4

Huh, my third round looks good despite my first two rounds being awful.
transience | Posted 5/25/2009 11:39:05 PM | message detail | filter | #263
this contest was always about round 3 and on. I said more than once that you could bomb the first round as long as you played the chain reactions right.
"Actually, fire didn't make Sephiroth awesome. Sephiroth made fire awesome." -Karma Hunter
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/26/2009 12:29:35 AM | message detail | filter | #264
My predictions for the rest of the contest:

Zelda: A Link to the Past > Final Fantasy VI
Final Fantasy VII > Super Mario 64
Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Final Fantasy VIII (too bad I have Metal Gear Solid in the finals)
Super Smash Bros. Melee > Final Fantasy X
Zelda: Twilight Princess > Resident Evil 4
Super Smash Bros. Brawl > Metal Gear Solid 4
Super Mario Bros. 3 > Super Mario Bros.
Final Fantasy VII > Zelda: A Link to the Past
Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Super Smash Bros. Melee
Super Smash Bros. Brawl > Metal Gear Solid 4 (this really depends on how well MGS4 does on SSBB in this round)
Final Fantasy VII > Zelda: A Link to the Past
Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Metal Gear Solid 4
Final Fantasy VII > Zelda: Ocarina of Time (I conveniently have this in my bracket as well; full points for the finals will be awesome! Of course, if MGS4 gets close to OoT in round 5 then...)
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/26/2009 12:49:47 AM | message detail | delete | filter | #265
Tetris-----------------------15.67% 18789
Mega Man 2--------------13.71% 16437
Super Mario Bros.--------36.18% 43369
The Legend of Zelda----34.43% 41277
TOTAL VOTES-------------------119872

Matches Completely Correct - 30
Matches Partially Correct - 19
Matches Completely Wrong - 0

Results - Just like last round, Mario beats Zelda. Margin is much closer this time though. Tetris and MM2 end up a good distance behind.

Post-Match Comments - The margin between SMB and Zelda was much closer this time. It looks like it's because of the presence of MM2 and Tetris. SMB lost out on a portion of it's apathy/IT'S FREAKIN' MARIO votes. Zelda managed to keep nearly everything from last round though.

Next Round Preview - With strong competition next round (ignoring the fact that it's two Marios), Zelda should finally be able to beat SMB.

Crew Prediction Challenge - 6 members get points

Tran - 33
HM - 29
Guest - 28
Moltar - 27
Leon - 24
Ed - 21
Lopen - 20

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Ed gets the point for SMB and MM2, and Moltar gets the point for LoZ and Tetris

HM - 48
Moltar - 43
Tran - 36
Guest (Luster, Zylo (3), HaRR, Kleenex (2), Soul, TRT, KP (4), Chaotic, Ngamer, GfK (3), Trout, BDawg (2), Luis, LMS (3), War, Ngirl) - 27
Ed - 24
Lopen - 23
Leon - 22
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/26/2009 12:05:16 PM | message detail | filter | #266
Whoa, looks like SMW made a pretty serious run at 3 during the dead hours. I guess the NES just wasn't as popular over in Europe as the early days of the SNES? I guess that makes sense seeing as how just about everything NES has collapsed over there, but I thought Mario 3 was universal enough to be an exception.

The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/26/2009 8:46:56 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #267
Division 3: Round 3 - Match 51 – The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past vs. Super Metroid vs. Final Fantasy VI vs. The Legend of Zelda: Link’s Awakening

Moltar’s Analysis

Link to the Past
Round 1 - 56.25% vs. Donkey Kong Country, Doom and Streets of Rage II
Round 2 - 50.49% vs. Super Metroid, Super Mario Kart and Donkey Kong Country

LttP takes half the vote in the Nintendo fourpack.

Super Metroid
Round 1 - 35.29% vs. Super Mario Kart, Sonic 3 and Gunstar Heroes
Round 2 - 18.89% vs. Link to the Past, Super Mario Kart and Donkey Kong Country

SM beats SMK in another close match to advance.

Final Fantasy VI
Round 1 - 40.05% vs. Link’s Awakening, Mega Man X and Phantasy Star IV
Round 2 - 37.32% vs. Link’s Awakening, Sonic 2 and Mortal Kombat II

FFVI holds strong from last round.

Link’s Awakening
Round 1 - 31.35% vs. Final Fantasy VI, Mega Man X and Phantasy Star IV
Round 2 - 31.14% vs. Final Fantasy VI, Sonic 2 and Mortal Kombat II

LA holds…stronger than FFVI

*We now interrupt this regularly scheduled analysis to do this…YES.*

Previously, Mario’s Team repelled the squads advancing on them by using their special techniques. After knocking out the Squad leaders, they hurried to catch up to Mario.

A world united,
Becomes divided,
War starts without fail
Now witness the tale

11: Forfeit

*At the gates of Centro Midgar*

Terra: Firaga, Thundaga, Blizzaga! *Terra fires several spells simultaneously at Link, who dodges them*

Link: HYAH! *Link attacks here with a flurry of sword swings, but she avoids them all*

*Insert 5 minute epic battle here*

Link: *breathing heavily* She’s tough…

Terra: Tired, boy? I’ll finish you off no-

???: Gaming Art - Final Smash, Fire Finale!

*Terra is blindsided by a wall of fire*

Link: That technique, it has to be…Mario!

Mario: It’s-a me! Are you okay, Link?

Link: I’ll be fine. You couldn’t have come at a more perfect time.

Terra: *hurt from the attack* Ugh…I didn’t expect you to get here so soon, Mario.

Mario: Give up now, and let us pass. Unless you want to risk fighting both of us!

Terra: …Fine, I’ll escort you two inside.

Link: Really? Now that’s more like it! *turns back into regular Link*

Mario: Yeah, let’s-a go!

Terra: *thinking* I’ll take them inside, but only because fighting both of them would be troublesome. Besides, there are others there who can handle these two. Invading our land and defeating our men…you will regret that, Nintendo.

~*To Be Continued*~.

I have LttP > FFVI in my bracket. I didn’t have SM or Link’s Awakening here, and it’s a no-brainer that LttP beats FF6, so that’s why I picked it. However, with two other Nintendo games here, one being another Zelda, does FFVI take advantage of that to take first? Let’s look at FFIV for an answer!

Okay kind of unfair since FF6 > FF4, but still, I think LttP takes it here. FFVI has not looked good thus far, with the whole unimpressive numbers in easy fourpacks and allowing LA to get 44-45% on it for two rounds.

LttP, to me, is in a whole different league now. Yeah, Metroid is here, but LttP didn’t let that stop it from getting 50% last round. Worried about a split? Link’s Awakening/LttP isn’t like Mario World/Mario 3. LttP is far stronger than LA, and that results in an SFF beatdown. So yeah, LttP looks pretty safe in my mind.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: LttP > FFVI

Moltar’s Prediction is: LttP: 39% - FFVI: 30% - Super Metroid: 18% - Link’s Awakening: 13%
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/26/2009 8:47:19 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #268
Lopen’s Analysis

Match is pretty debatable, but not very interesting. LttP has come into this thing looking better than FF6... in theory at least. The problem is that FF6 has yet to face a game that isn't a newcomer, so we can't really be sure how strong it's looking, and that LttP has a Zelda game. Now today we see Mario and Mario laying down the pimp hand on all the other entrants-- some might think that extends to Zelda LttP... that the SFF won't hurt as much. I kinda don't think that's going to be the case.

Zelda's fanbase is not Mario's fanbase. They're both big time Nintendo franchises, but Zelda just doesn't have the massive widespread appeal that Mario does. I'm expecting the SFF to look more like FF's than Mario's, here. Now, I also think Link's Awakening gets flattened, but any damage it does to LttP should be enough for FF6 to slip by, as I'm not convinced it's lost a step yet anyway and this was a pretty close match first time around.

Come on Super Metroid beat down that THIEF.

Lopen's prediction:
Final Fantasy 6 - 34.19%
Link to the Past - 32.03%
Super Metroid - 20.02%
ZELDA... on the GAMEBOY - 13.76%

Transience’s Analysis

My bracket for this match says FF6 > LTTP. I figured that LTTP and FF6 was a 55/45 kind of match and that Link's Awakening would be just enough for FF6 to pull the upset. I then got an even bigger surprise when Super Metroid managed to make it here. LTTP's got a Zelda and another Nintendo game -- game, FF6 wins.

But I actually feel worse about this pick now than at any other time in the contest. Today's match kinda slammed any good feeling shut - two Mario games vs. a FF title and FF4 is losing by over 10,000 votes. Everything Old Square has looked bad in this contest. FF6 has been struggling with Link's Awakening all contest. CT lost to Mario 64. FF4, yeah. If that wasn't bad enough, Nintendo overlap hasn't been notable at all. LTTP/Link's Awakening reminds me of Mario 64/Yoshi's Island - it's pretty obvious where the votes are going to go and it won't make a lick of difference. Super Metroid could mean something, but not a whole lot.

I actually think that Old Square overlaps with Nintendo to a certain extent. Most FF6 fans that I know are crazy Nintendo fans too. It's purely anecdotal, but I've always felt like this.

FF6 got 53% on freaking Link's Awakening. LTTP is a mile above Link's Awakening. The funny part about this is that I actually think less of LTTP than the rest of the Crew - I think it's overrated and that Mario 64 will beat it if it looks as legit this round as it has in rounds 1 and 2. But despite my low opinion of LTTP, my opinion of FF6 is even worse. FF6 is gonna look bad here.

Metroid beats Zelda
who cares if it's a handheld?
Samus reigns supreme

transience's prediction:

The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past - 41%
Final Fantasy III (VI) - 35%
Super Metroid - 14%
The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening - 10%

Leonhart’s Analysis

The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past: A Link to the Past has had two matches where it scored over 50% of the vote, but some people feel it hasn’t been as dominant as the supposed #3 game on the site should. I think it’s done just fine, and I’d still consider it the #3 game by default simply because I haven’t found anything that looks like it could beat it. It may be overrated though, but none of that really matters here. It’s going to own Super Metroid and Link’s Awakening, but the LFF it suffers will probably cost it first place. LTTP probably beats Final Fantasy VI more today than it did five years ago, but the difference isn’t so great that it can still win despite two other Nintendo games.
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/26/2009 8:47:56 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #269
Super Metroid: Hey, Super Metroid won two times against Super Mario Kart in almost identical fashion. Imagine that. This is the end of the line for this game though. It should be able to avoid last place just because Link’s Awakening is in for a rude awakening (ha, get it?) against LTTP here, but don’t expect it to get anywhere close to placing.

Final Fantasy VI: No potential top ten game has disappointed more than Final Fantasy VI, in my opinion. Despite Zelda games proving far and wide to be very beatable and not invincible like many people thought, FFVI struggled to get 55% on Link’s Awakening twice now. I suppose that could also mean that LA is legit (and it probably is), but that just doesn’t strike me as a performance of a top ten game because I doubt LA is a top 25 game. It should be able to take advantage of the three-way Nintendo split here and take first place though.

The Legend of Zelda: Link’s Awakening: It’s strange to say this, but outside of Ocarina of Time, the most impressive Zelda game up to this point in the contest has been Link’s Awakening. People wondered if that 44% on FFVI in round one was a fluke, so what does it do? It gets 45.5% in round two! This game is legitimately strong, though I don’t know how well it will hold up against the top 2-D game in the series. It could get absolutely destroyed here, or I could see it even beating Super Metroid here because it’s probably stronger indirectly. Not that likely though, I don’t think.

Leonhart’s Vote: Vote for FFVI or I’ll rip your lungs out!

Leonhart’s Prediction:

A Link to the Past – 33.51%
Super Metroid – 15.41%
Final Fantasy VI – 37.62%
Link’s Awakening – 13.46%

Ed Bellis’s Analysis

I was about to type “it’s a four-way SNES showdown!” before I realized that Link’s Awakening is, in fact, on the Game Boy. SILLY ED BELLIS

This match is essentially between A Link to the Past and FF6. Without the presence of Link’s Awakening, I’d say LTTP takes it easily based on the fact that FF6 let a lesser Zelda title come within 10 percent of it for two rounds. But Link’s Awakening might throw a curveball into the works by draining some of LTTP’s strength. The question thus becomes: does Link’s Awakening (and heck, to a lesser extent, Super Metroid) leech off of LTTP enough for FF6 to get first?

I say no. FF6 has fallen off a good deal since the glory days of 2004; despite remakes up the wazoo, it seems like FF8 is even stronger than it. I’m still gonna give the edge to Link to the Past here.

Super Metroid will also have an interesting time here. Having stood up well under Nintendo SFF for two rounds, can it beat out the heavily-pressured Link’s Awakening? (Answer: ‘Probably.’)

The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past with 34.04%
Super Metroid with 20.09%
Final Fantasy III (VI) with 28.87%
The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening with 17.00%

Guest’s Analysis - Mr3790

Hello Board 8, Mr3790 here again with a guest analysis of LttP/Final Fantasy VI/Link's Awakening/Super metroid.:

This match's result should be easy, Lttp>FFVI. Unless Link's awakening can drain enough fan support to let FFVI win. which is doubtful based off the previous match. Also, since metroid does not die as much to Zelda anymore, it will probably take third over LA. Now watch it get Fourth.Due to limited actual results of this.

My pick:
LTTP: 37%
FFVI: 34%
SM: 16%
LA: 13%

Until next Analysis, Mr3790 out.

Crew Consensus: Majority going with LttP > FFVI, though 2 have FFVI > LttP.
transients | Posted 5/26/2009 8:53:46 PM | message detail | filter | #270
kick this ZFS guy off the crew
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/26/2009 8:57:27 PM | message detail | filter | #271
Yeah, at this point, I'm pretty much expecting LTTP > FFVI, but that's what my actual bracket has, so I'll take it. FFVI still has a chance though, so I'm not giving up on it!
MetricTrout | Posted 5/26/2009 8:59:14 PM | message detail | filter | #272
It surprises me that everyone has Link's Awakening over 10%. Has Yoshi's Island taught you nothing?
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/26/2009 9:00:05 PM | message detail | filter | #273
Yoshi's Island is no ZELDA
No matter what, no matter how, I know I'll make it through somehow.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/26/2009 9:00:28 PM | message detail | filter | #274
Heh, feel sorry for you guys. You know if the Crew had gotten today's match wrong, there'd be half a dozen guys in here loling. On behalf of those losers:

Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
transients | Posted 5/26/2009 9:00:56 PM | message detail | filter | #275
Lopen | Posted 5/26/2009 10:05:58 PM | message detail | filter | #276
As I expected (note the last line of yesterday's write-up) everyone's taking today's results and throwing them onto Zelda because both games are Nintendo. I think you're all going to be in for a rude awakening here. It's time you learned about "difference." Different birth, totally different life-- wait what was I going on about.
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
transients | Posted 5/26/2009 10:06:55 PM | message detail | filter | #277
I hope so!
red sox 777 | Posted 5/26/2009 10:13:39 PM | message detail | filter | #278
Indeed, Lopen. Last round people saw massive overlap between FF1 and FF4 and projected that onto everything, saying that the Mario games today were doomed because they would have massive overlap. Now, they appear to have very little overlap, and people are acting as if Nintendo can't have large amounts of LFF.

Not that I think FFVI is going to win, though.
Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
ZFS | Posted 5/26/2009 10:26:36 PM | message detail | filter | #279
sorry there was all that BIG BOSS in the way

I don't think anyone else would agree, but this match will likely determine how the rest of the contest plays out to me. After seeing FFIV fail to do anything yesterday, I have to think that, that match combined with everything we've seen thus far, points to Nintendo domination from here until the final.

The only thing that could maybe give some hope to the few Square games left in the contest is FFVI doing what it's supposed to here and actually winning convincingly. There's zero reason for it to drop the ball...but it's not hard to see it doing just that. LttP is likely significantly stronger than it at this point, despite their 53/47 match back in 2k4. Between the Nintendo shift and this site getting younger, old Square has suffered the most, but I'd say Square in general has suffered a fair bit.

But I'm going to stick with FFVI here, if only because I like it more and I'm stubborn! We'll see what happens; it's not like FFVI doesn't have triple Nintendo SFF favoring it, but even that might not be enough, which would kinda say it all.

Final Fantasy VI -- 36%
Link to the Past -- 34%
Super Metroid -- 18%
Link's Awakening -- 12%

Bracket: Final Fantasy VI > Link to the Past
Favorites: Final Fantasy VI > Super Metroid

a metal slime appears
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/26/2009 10:27:33 PM | message detail | filter | #280
Ed Bellis | Posted 5/26/2009 10:29:20 PM | message detail | filter | #281

From: ZFS | #279
if only because I like it more and I'm stubborn!

kindred spiritz
ed status: if it isn't my old nemesis, a truck
The Real Truth | Posted 5/26/2009 10:32:39 PM | message detail | filter | #282
Super Metroid deserves to place.
GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site. -CJayC
transience | Posted 5/26/2009 11:12:18 PM | message detail | filter | #283
winning side I don't know about this
Lopen | Posted 5/26/2009 11:13:17 PM | message detail | filter | #284
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/26/2009 11:20:24 PM | message detail | filter | #285
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/26/2009 11:38:12 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #286
get owned square fanz
Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 51 - Bracket: LttP > FFVI - Vote: SM (199/288)
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/26/2009 11:43:29 PM | message detail | filter | #287
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/26/2009 11:47:41 PM | message detail | filter | #288
Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup

Haha, now here's a match that lived up to the hype! Okay, so I was way off in thinking that FF4 could compete for second, but instead we got an even MORE entertaining result - a Mario Smackdown that went right down to the final hours! Sure I mentioned in my preview how 3 had probably lost some steam in the last 5 years, and actually I wouldn't have been surprised by World putting up nearly identical numbers to its older brother in indirect matches, but I'd never have expected World could go blow for blow in a direct battle like this. At least not with 3 sporting that super-iconic, ultra-nostalgic Raccoon Mario yellow boxshot. Well, a hearty note of congrats to World, and the even better thing about this result is that it keeps things extremely interesting for next round as well. Does the presence of a second NES Mario swing the balance in SMW's favor? If the result between the two stays this tight, wouldn't Zelda's only chance be to beat them both (and after the way they destroyed FF, is that even possible)? Now we just need them to edge Zelda and then have the increasingly possible FF7 > Mario 64 result take place and we'd have a chance to settle the Great Mario Debate once and for all!

Okay, so in my bracket I went with the FF6 > LttP upset here because I expected Super Met to make it into this poll (yesssss, the one thing I predicted correctly all year!) and thought that MMX (d'oh) would also hurt the Nintendo entrants, allowing FF to reverse its '04 defeat. Now that another Zelda game is here in place of MM, and in fact a Zelda game that's looked really good every time out and ought to resist SFF better since its from a unique platform, the FF6 win ought to be a no brainer, right? Well... it WOULD be, except that we just saw Team Mario put up 76% of the vote on Team Final Fantasy, and that in spite of Sonic hanging around to possibly weaken the 2D platformers!

Even then, I'd normally counter with "but these Zelda games can't boast 90% playrates like those classic Marios- a fanbase split is going to be much more detrimental to this series". And while that's true, it doesn't explain away how LA was able to score 45% directly on an FF6 that wasn't suffering from any kind of FF or Square or RPG split last time around. Sorry, but that's just an embarrassing performance from something we'd been expecting to contend for a Top Ten position this year- clearly this game has lost a step or three in the past five years, and so just like Chrono Trigger I think it gets exposed in this one.

...which doesn't mean it can't keep it close! Europe ought to give the game a big boost during the dead hours, but again like CT, I just can't see how it survives once the sun rises against Day Vote studs like this. Other quickies: LA probably holds on better than most are expecting (Yoshi's Island this is not!) and Super Metroid likewise probably doesn't completely fall apart versus its R2 percentage. Which ought to give us something like:

The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past - 35.55%
Final Fantasy III (VI) - 35.48%
Super Metroid - 14.74%
The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening - 14.23%

Feeling pretty good about that!

The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/26/2009 11:48:48 PM | message detail | filter | #289
At least you've got the order right! Better than me!
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/26/2009 11:57:55 PM | message detail | filter | #290
Hmm, impressed by Super Metroid here. Guess I should have seen this coming, since it only had to compete against one other Nintendo series in this poll instead of three like last time, but still. Darn it LA, I said you WEREN'T Yoshi's Island, stop making me look bad!

Mainly though, "yikes" at the continued Nintendo domination. Here hoping either Lopen or Ed goes for the bold Link to the Past > Mario 64 > FF7 > FF6 pick next round!

The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/26/2009 11:58:40 PM | message detail | filter | #291
Darn it LA, I said you WEREN'T Yoshi's Island, stop making me look bad!

Well, it's going to stay above double digits, at least.
Lopen | Posted 5/27/2009 2:02:52 AM | message detail | filter | #292
Link to the Past > Mario 64 > FF7 > FF6 pick next round!

More like PIERCE BROSNAN > Link to the Past > FF7 > FF6 !!
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/27/2009 11:42:07 AM | message detail | delete | filter | #293
Super Mario Bros. 3---32.76% 37201
Sonic the Hedgehog---14.54% 16513
Super Mario World-----32.14% 36497
Final Fantasy II (IV)----20.57% 23356
TOTAL VOTES-----------------113567

Matches Completely Correct - 31
Matches Partially Correct - 19
Matches Completely Wrong - 0

Results - FFIV capitalizing on the Nintendo split? Not here! SMB3 and SMW do split, but they do so a good distance ahead of FFIV, which ends up closer to Sonic. SMB3/SMW ends up being very close. Looks like the two are very close in strength!

Post-Match Comments - FFIV was just too weak to take advantage of the Nintendo games. We had already thought of SMB3 as a Top 7 game, and now SMW is looking to be right there will it. Mario games are just too universally loved to bring each other down like FF splits do.

Next Round Preview - SMB/LoZ/SMB3/SMW, aka woo Nintendo woo Mario. Now Zelda may be the one that has to capitalize.

Crew Prediction Challenge - 4 members get points

Tran - 34
HM - 29
Guest - 29
Moltar - 28
Leon - 25
Ed - 21
Lopen - 20

Crew Accuracy Challenge - HM and Trout get points for SMB3, Trout gets the point for SMW, Leon gets the point for FFIV, and Moltar gets the point for Sonic

HM - 49
Moltar - 44
Tran - 36
Guest (Luster, Zylo (3), HaRR, Kleenex (2), Soul, TRT, KP (4), Chaotic, Ngamer, GfK (3), Trout (3), BDawg (2), Luis, LMS (3), War, Ngirl) - 29
Ed - 24
Lopen - 23
Leon - 23
Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 51 - Bracket: LttP > FFVI - Vote: SM (199/288)
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/27/2009 7:58:36 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #294
Division 4: Round 3 - Match 52 – Final Fantasy VII vs. Goldeneye vs. Super Mario 64 vs. Chrono Trigger

Moltar’s Analysis

Final Fantasy VII
Round 1 - 55.05% vs. Mario Kart 64, Star Fox 64 and Suikoden
Round 2 - 47.30% vs. Goldeneye, Super Mario RPG and Mario Kart 64

You should have seen it after the board vote, yikes!

Round 1 - 35.97% vs. Super Mario RPG, Resident Evil 2 and Donkey Kong Country 2
Round 2 - 23.33% vs. Final Fantasy VII, Super Mario RPG and Mario Kart 64

Goldeneye shows it’s not as low as R1 let on.

Super Mario 64
Round 1 - 45.44% vs. Symphony of the Night, Resident Evil and Kirby Super Star
Round 2 - 40.42% vs. Chrono Trigger, Symphony of the Night and Yoshi’s Island

I said wow

Chrono Trigger
Round 1 - 56.36% vs. Yoshi’s Island, Earthbound and Lufia II
Round 2 - 37.59% vs. Super Mario 64, Symphony of the Night and Yoshi’s Island

3rd strongest game? Not anymore!

Well this match surely got interesting. I have FF7 > CT in my bracket because pre-contest…this was pretty much a lock. #1 game and #3 game, FF7/CT previously showing no signs of SFF, SM64/GE splitting. I mean really, unless you were just looking for some crazy nonsensical upset here, you had FF7 > CT.


Everything looked fine and dandy in Round 1. FF7 and CT looking good, Mario 64 looking fine, GE disappointing, everyone’s happy. Then Round 2 hits, and you get Goldeneye putting up 33% on FF7 in a fourpack with 2 other Nintendo games. 24 hours later, you get the huge upset of SM64 > Chrono Trigger with another Mario game in the poll. Suddenly, Mario 64 is looking pretty darn good for Round 2.

And the evidence just keeps piling up in its favor. The biggest thing is the failure of old-Square to capitalize on Nintendo splits, while Nintendo rocks Square when it gets split. What we have here is the 2 biggest RPGs against 2 of the biggest N64 games. The million dollar question is which split is worse.

CT is on the wrong end of the FF7 split, while Mario 64 is presumably on the right end of the Goldeneye split. FF7/CT, like I said before, has never gone too badly for CT, so I don’t think that changes here. Mario 64/GE could be bad though. We’ve seen both OoT/Mario 64 and OoT/GE, and both were horrific SFF beatdowns, especially with how strong both Mario 64 and Goldeneye look to be. Mario 64 is no OoT, but I still think Mario 64 can dish out some N64 SFF, as I believe the N64 audience is very familiar with its top games and that there is a defined pecking order for those fans.

Basically it comes down to this. The better CT resists FF7, the better its chances are of winning. The better Mario 64 can distance itself away for GE, the better are its chances. Mario 64 already has one over on CT, and between hurting Goldeneye (which SMRPG was even able to do) and getting hurt by Final Fantasy Freakin 7, I like Mario’s chances a bit more here.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: FFVII > CT

Moltar’s Prediction is: FFVII: 34% - SM64: 26% - CT: 24% - Goldeneye: 16%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

So I have just about given up hope that FFVII is still stronger than Ocarina of Time. Round 1 looked great for Square, but ever since things have been downhill, with Nintendo domination all around. Square games that were top tier in 2k4 look completely lousy in 2k9. It may just be old Square is finally disappearing from most people's minds, but I dunno, I think it extends a little further than that. Everyone's always spun FFVII's showings as 'alright' or 'nothing bad,' but the past couple of years have certainly been trending downwards, at least as far as Cloud and Sephiroth go.
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/27/2009 7:58:55 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #295
Which brings us to today's match. The Crew consensus should almost unanimously favor Mario to advance here. I think it may be such a dominating favorite you might have one or two decide to go for it all and take the upset over FFVII. But I'm not buying into that bandwagon, that seems like massive overestimation of Mario 64's strength, or complete underestimation of FFVII's. For all that people are ready to call Mario 64 the strongest Mario game, we still don't know how much of last round was CT completely falling off the map (and it wouldn't be surprising seeing FFVI today) and how much of it was Mario. There's also the fact that FFVII/CT shouldn't split so much as FFVII will rock CT into the ground.

People will point to that 2k4 final, but I've always believed CT had more reason to do overperform there. We can say Nintendo fans wouldn't vote for it after the gauntlet it ran, eliminating Nintendo game after Nintendo game, but I think did get the Nintendo fanbases support over FFVII. I also think that between the two, people are more likely to support the underdog than the guaranteed champion. Now, there's no way to prove any of this, and it honestly doesn't make much of a difference now, but between CT having fallen off the map and another Nintendo game being in the poll will ultimately lessen Trigger's ability to hold up against Square's best.

Of course, Mario 64 and Goldeneye could end up killing each other with N64 SFF -- something I can completely buy given how few games were on the system -- but I think Mario would sooner be OoT-lite in that situation and drive ol' Bond into the ground. We'll see how this goes, but I have no hopes for CT to advance, unfortunately!

Final Fantasy VII -- 38%
Super Mario 64 -- 27%
Chrono Trigger -- 22%
Goldeneye -- 13%

Bracket: Final Fantasy VII > Chrono Trigger
Favorites: Final Fantasy VII > Chrono Trigger

Lopen’s Analysis

I don't know... how can someone look at that picture and not bust out laughing? Guy is so out of place it's amazing. I have my doubts as to how much stronger Mario 64 is vs Goldeneye anyway... although I was never a big fan, Goldeneye was pretty top tier on the N64. Mario 64's perceived strength is gauging it through dinosaurs that have every reason to drop in SotN and Chrono Trigger. With the help of a boost from that amazingly hilarious picture, a PP7 shot square to the dome will lay it to rest.

CT meanwhile, gets brutally SFFed by FF7.

... maybe I'm just grasping for an interesting result at this point?


Lopen's prediction
Final Fantasy 7 - 33.01%
Super Mario 64 - 23.02%
Chrono Trigger - 20.90%

-looks at old match pics- (this is genuine... the first was my legit analysis when first sent to Moltar!)

Aw crap, this already happened fruitlessly a few years ago with Pierce vs Ocarina of Time. Humorless bastards. I still have to go for an overperformance from 007 here though. C'mon Goldeneye!

Lopen's prediction
Final Fantasy 7 - 33.01%
Super Mario 64 - 25.02%
Chrono Trigger - 22.90%

Transience’s Analysis

Big match tonight. There's a lot I can talk about.

Let's start with the whole "where's the overlap?" thing. I believe that some of the heaviest overlap exists on the n64, where there were only a few notable games. It's the same way on the Wii and you saw what happened to Galaxy when Brawl was introduced. You saw round 2, where Goldeneye reminded Mario Kart 64 what the superior multiplayer game was on the system. And, of course, there's Ocarina of Time tearing Mario 64 to freaking shreds in 2004.
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/27/2009 7:59:36 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #296
So it stands to reason that Mario 64 and Goldeneye will hurt each other. People have talked about how Nintendo overlap is not that significant, but they're wrong: it isn't with old games because they're so well-known with ridiculous playrates. The n64 isn't the catch-all that the NES or SNES are/were. It's a system with half a dozen games and that's all.

So what of FF7 and CT?

They're the two biggest RPGs on the site, but oddly enough, there's no evidence of them ever overlapping. In fact, you'd be hard-pressed to find Old Square (pre-FF7) and New Square (FF7 and on) overlapping at any point. CT actually lead FF7 for an hour in the 2004 final. Kefka went from 46.5% on Marcus Fenix to 43.9% when Cloud got added to the poll -- not much of a change considering how badly Cloud beats down newer guys like Squall or Auron. If you're looking for some kind of killer overlap here, you're probably not going to find it. CT is independent of FF7. The only thing pointing the other way is the 2008 final, but the finals are always screwed up. I'd sooner throw that one out -- after all, Snake beat Cloud and led Link for six hours.

I want to pick Chrono Trigger for this match. I trust it to get 20% more than I do Mario 64 - that game has a fanbase, man. I could really see it doing something unusual and just never letting Mario 64 even have a chance.

The last three days have pushed me away from it though. I can't deny it - old Square just sucks now. FF4 got crushed. FF6 had a pathetic performance despite three Nintendo games. Chrono Trigger lost to Mario 64 already. I'm not about to pick old Square until it gives me a reason.

CT hasn't given me a reason yet.

transience's prediction:

Final Fantasy VII - 37%
Mario 64 - 25%
Chrono Trigger - 23%
Goldeneye - 15%

Leonhart’s Analysis

Final Fantasy VII: Final Fantasy VII won as expected last round, but it struggled early, as usual. For some reason, this game has lost its ASV now. That could eventually cost it down the line with Ocarina of Time, especially since it’ll get hit hard the first hour. FFVII shouldn’t have a problem winning this one though. I know people are high on Mario 64 here, but you have to get really high on it for it to beat FFVII here. I really don’t expect Chrono Trigger to affect FFVII that much. Everything we’ve ever seen between these two has basically shown no effect. The big question here is how much FFVII wins by because OoT has been outdoing it so far.

GoldenEye: Hey, remember when we thought GoldenEye/Mario 64 would be a good match? Yeah, then Mario 64 went out and beat Chrono Trigger. What a spoil sport. Last place seems to be GoldenEye’s destiny this round, but I doubt it gets destroyed. I fully expect Mario 64 and GoldenEye to split here. If OoT and Mario 64 split, and OoT and GoldenEye split, what’s to stop Mario 64 and GoldenEye from splitting? Nothing, that’s what. The fact that GoldenEye held up better to OoT also tells me that Mario 64’s going to be getting hurt by its presence rather than helped by it, like it seemed with Yoshi’s Island. It could prevent Mario 64 from advancing here.
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/27/2009 7:59:57 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #297
Super Mario 64: One of the biggest shockers of the contest was Mario 64 beating Chrono Trigger. It did what Mario 3, Mario World, and Mario RPG couldn’t do five years ago, and it did it with Yoshi’s Island there. Now, some people think it makes it even MORE impressive that it did it with Yoshi’s Island, but I beg to differ. Mario 64 is going to be dealing SFF there without much LFF from Yoshi’s Island. If you add a neutral entry or even a non-Mario Nintendo game, Mario 64 is going to be the one who drops, possibly even to the point of losing. Remember that Mega Man X did better against Mario with Zelda there than with Luigi there because a non-Mario entry puts up better resistance. You’re going to see the same thing here. GoldenEye will provide much more resistance than Yoshi’s Island, and Mario 64’s gonna be hurting. Watch out!

Chrono Trigger: After Mario 64 beat Chrono Trigger last round, most people essentially gave Mario 64 a free pass into round four because Final Fantasy VII would be there. I disagree. We have never seen an instance of Final Fantasy VII and Chrono Trigger affecting each other, including a direct matchup in the finals of the first Games Contest. Don’t expect it to start now. I honestly think Chrono Trigger can stand up better to FFVII and resist LFF better than Mario 64 can from GoldenEye. Mario 64 completely folded against Ocarina of Time five years ago, and while GoldenEye is certainly no Zelda, that match simply proves that Mario 64 isn’t invincible when it comes to LFF. I’m going with Chrono Trigger here!

Leonhart’s Vote: Final Fantasy VII! Let’s mosey!

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Final Fantasy VII – 35.85%
GoldenEye – 17.02%
Super Mario 64 – 22.18%
Chrono Trigger – 24.95%

Ed Bellis’s Analysis

This is a peculiar matchup. On the one hand, Mario 64 by all rights appeared to be the stronger game last round, beating Chrono Trigger despite the presence of another Mario game. On the other hand, I’m of the impression that N64 SFF is far more severe than most other forms, as notable games there tended to be few and far between. Plus, it didn’t beat Trigger by all that much, and slight variations in the poll could easily tip it the other way.

So I’ll be backing FF7 for first, and… y’know, something weird sits in my mind about Goldeneye. I can’t help but think that, for some bizarre reason, it’ll come out better than most people expect. After reviewing how it barely beat Mario RPG I can’t take it for over Mario 64, but I want to; I just think it’ll look decent in the process.

Final Fantasy VII with 37.88%
GoldenEye 007 with 18.23%
Super Mario 64 with 20.22%
Chrono Trigger with 23.67%

Guest’s Analysis - The Real Truth

Final Super Golden Trigger - This game is going to be great.

You know what would be funny? If Chrono Trigger decided to steal a ton of FF7's votes and some how bump SM64 to first, with Goldeneye in the match.

So yeah, a few different things to look for in this match.
How bad will FF7 hurt CT?
How bad will GE hurt SM64?

Goldeneye has strength and isn't going to just die. It's also more different than the other 3 games. So if we guess what Goldeneye is going to get, we can come up with some stuff here.
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/27/2009 8:00:36 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #298
I will take FF7 to break 40% here.
I won't put Goldeneye below 15% (SotN had 14.67).
This leaves 45% for the other two games.
Honestly, we'll probably see a similar match this time around, between CT and SM64.
I'm so tempted to take Chrono Trigger here.
Actually yeah, screw it. I realize how hot the Mario games have been.
I just can't put Goldeneye that low. If SM64 does take second here, it's probably because of a MASSIVE flop on CT's part. So massive, that CT will end up closer to Goldeneye, than SM64.

Final fantasy VII - 43.16%
Super Mario 64 - 24. 56%
Goldeneye - 16.61%
Chrono Trigger - 15.67%

After looking at the numbers I came up with, I just couldn't go against SM64.
And at the last second I decided to take Goldeneye over Chrono Trigger.
I realize SMRPG got 17.03% in the match FF7. We've also come to see that SMRPG has somet strength. And for some reason I just can't shake the feeling CT will flop hard. FF7 destroys CT factor.

Crew Consensus: Poor old Square, CT’s gone from the favorite for second to only 2 people supporting it in the Crew! The rest have FF7 > SM64
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/27/2009 8:05:49 PM | message detail | filter | #299
transients | Posted 5/27/2009 8:06:41 PM | message detail | filter | #300
dammit HM stopped backing Square for no reason

how am I gonna run up my lead now !!