GameFAQs Contests


Best Game Ever 2 Contest Analysis Crew (Part Four)

Big Bob | Posted 5/23/2009 10:05:51 PM | message detail | filter | #201
transience | Posted 5/23/2009 10:09:05 PM | message detail | filter | #202
what's stronger, Portal or Half-Life 2?

time to judge TP vs. MGS4 on this
"Actually, fire didn't make Sephiroth awesome. Sephiroth made fire awesome." -Karma Hunter
ZFS | Posted 5/23/2009 10:09:31 PM | message detail | filter | #203
Half-Life 2, for sure.

a metal slime appears
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/23/2009 10:13:17 PM | message detail | filter | #204
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 10:13:50 PM | message detail | filter | #205
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/23/2009 11:03:55 PM | message detail | filter | #206
Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup

Got to say I disagree with the way everyone's reacting to today's result. Yes Galaxy is looking bad, but "flop of the Contest," come on now! Sure Brawl is beating it down with 72%, but we've always known that same-console Nintendo SFF can be brutal. Ocarina did exactly this same thing to the two N64 titles it overshadowed, and yet Mario 64 and Goldeneye both bounced back with impressive performances that have us talking them up as top 10/15 games once again. And as for R1, well, even R/B/Y was only able to push G/S/C down to 42%- Pokemon generations are apparently just impossible to SFF much (at all?), so again I don't think that's any reason to hate on SMG. I mean clearly its a couple steps below that SMW/Mario 64 tier, but I bet it'll bounce back and show itself to be a respectable mid-carder once we get to see it without Brawl or TP interfering.

The only thing we can really take away from this result is that, just like every other FPS this season, CoD4 is a fraud (at least in terms of being able to compete with MGS4/FO3 next round like we were hoping). And also, the hated Wii was surprisingly able to earn 57% of the vote against two options that did a pretty fair job of covering the 360, PC, and PS3 fanbases- between that and TP's strong stand yesterday, looks like all of the gloom and doom regarding post-N64 Nintendo was a bit overblown. Have to imagine both of those heavy hitters will be fine through next round... but TP/Brawl/MGS4/RE4, yikes, now that will be something to talk about!

Speaking of MGS4, I was excited about getting another chance to see what it was made of now that SSBB has made it seem to be such a world beater, but then I remembered that we already know 4's relation to Fallout and we already know F03 >> Halo 3 from last round. So yeah, everyone was right, there really shouldn't be all that much of interest about this match. ALTHOUGH when I said "remind me to pick against Master Chief this Fall!" a couple days ago I'd actually forgotten that there was still a Halo alive in the tourney- guess I get to start betting against this series even earlier than expected! Unfortunately it seems just about everyone has already beaten me to it, as I'm seeing Portal picks all across both the Crew and the Oracle. Ah well... it's got a fantastic match pic that really plays up its fad/meme/cult/joke appeal (great work Zen!), which ought to work wonders given how MGS4 and FO3 have such low playrates (compared to most other games that are still alive at this point), meaning there should be a good chunk of disaffected users looking to cast an "Other" vote.

Aside from that battle for 3rd, hm... I guess I should mention that I'm lowballing the MGS series for the third time in a row, and feel pretty confident in it going three for three at drawing 1/3 of the votes in a poll. Yes this is a favorable matchup thanks to Fallout and Halo sharing the 360 while Halo and Portal share the FPS genre, but as we've been over many times the MGS series just isn't built for blowouts and so I'd be quite surprised if it surged toward 36% or anything like that. And uh... that's about all.

Metal Gear Solid 4 - 33.40%
Fallout 3 - 28.24%
Portal - 19.19%
Halo 3 - 19.17%

Bring on Round Three!

The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
transience | Posted 5/23/2009 11:16:37 PM | message detail | filter | #207
alright, why are we calling Fallout 3 a 360 game instead of a multiplatform game? Portal's also on every system. the only exclusives here are MGS4 and Halo 3.
"Actually, fire didn't make Sephiroth awesome. Sephiroth made fire awesome." -Karma Hunter
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 11:25:09 PM | message detail | filter | #208
Boring match is boring. Bring on an even more boring match: Tetris/MM2/SMB/LoZ!
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/24/2009 12:55:53 AM | message detail | filter | #209
Well I meant to say "MGS4 is in a good position since Halo and FO3 (and somewhat Portal) overlap on the 360, FO3 and Portal overlap on the PC, and there's of course Portal/Halo FPS overlap- but I still don't think it will do much more than 1/3 of the vote, just as it always seems to."

But whoa, can't believe Fallout is still letting Portal hang around. I guess it did this last time before taking a dive though, and FO3 did have that good ASV. But Halo will be there to weaken it here... eh, okay, so this won't stay competitive.

The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/24/2009 6:06:24 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #210
Super Smash Bros. Brawl----41.06% 45104
Grand Theft Auto IV-----------17.97% 19737
Call of Duty 4-------------------25.42% 27929
Super Mario Galaxy-----------15.56% 17089
TOTAL VOTES--------------------------109859

Matches Completely Correct - 28
Matches Partially Correct - 19
Matches Completely Wrong - 0

What Happened - Wow Brawl. Even with Galaxy here, it just kills this group. CoD4 takes a distant second. Galaxy gets beaten down so badly, it loses to GTA4.

Why it Happened - Brawl is a top game, while Galaxy looks to be one of the weaker Mario's. Guess it shouldn't be too shocking to see it get SFFed. CoD4's performance from last round also turns out to not be as impressive as most thought. With Galaxy being weak, and CoD4 not being it by much in R1, no surprise to see it look bad next to Brawl here.

What Will Happen - Brawl laughs at this division

Crew Prediction Challenge - Tran and HM get a point

Tran - 31
Guest - 27
HM - 27
Moltar - 25
Leon - 22
Ed - 21
Lopen - 18

Crew Accuracy Challenge - HM gets the point for CoD4 and GTA4, Tran gets the point for Brawl, and Ed gets the point for Galaxy

HM - 47
Moltar - 41
Tran - 35
Guest (Luster, Zylo (3), HaRR, Kleenex (2), Soul, TRT, KP (4), Chaotic, Ngamer, GfK (3), Trout, BDawg (2), Luis, LMS (3), War) - 26
Lopen - 22
Leon - 22
Ed - 22
Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 48 - Bracket: MGS4 > F3 - Vote: MGS4 (167/248)
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/24/2009 8:57:37 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #211
Division 1: Round 3 - Match 49 – Tetris vs. Mega Man 2 vs. Super Mario Bros. vs. The Legend of Zelda

Moltar’s Analysis

Round 1 - 53.65% vs. Donkey Kong, Punch-Out and Space Invaders
Round 2 - 39.49% vs. Mega Man 2, Pac-Man and Donkey Kong

Tetris with a convincing win over MM2

Mega Man 2
Round 1 - 34.79% vs. Pac-Man, Oregon Trail and Pong
Round 2 - 32.01% vs. Tetris, Pac-Man and Donkey Kong

MM2 does a good job retaining percentage from last round

Super Mario Bros.
Round 1 - 70.54% vs. Ninja Gaiden, Duck Hunt and Galaga
Round 2 - 46.19% vs. Legend of Zelda, Metroid and Ninja Gaiden

It’s freakin MARIO!

Legend of Zelda
Round 1 - 61.28% vs. Metroid, Contra and Dragon Warrior III
Round 2 - 38.22% vs. Super Mario Bros, Metroid and Ninja Gaiden

ZELDA does not apply here

*We now interrupt this regularly scheduled analysis to go back to the story again because this match is boring…again.*

Previously, Link’s crew fought off the Midgar Squads that had surrounded them. After taking out enough of them, they hurried to catch up with Link.

A world united,
Becomes divided,
War starts without fail
Now witness the tale

10: Revenge

*At Luigi, Peach, and Yoshi’s location*

Luigi: *hand-signs* Fireball!

Yoshi: Yoshi!

*Luigi and Yoshi take out a couple of the Midgar Squad soldiers*

Peach: Guys, get near me. Parasol Protect! *A giant parasol appears in front of the trio* It’ll take too much time to take all of these guys out. Time for me to use this. *hand-signs* Gaming Art - Final Smash! Peach Blossom!

*A mist passes through the area, and most of the guards inhale the mist and fall asleep. Peach, Yoshi and Luigi emerge from the parasol where Fighter and Cecil are left standing*

Fighter: Cute move, but it’ll take more than a sleeping gas to knock me out.

Yoshi: Yoshi, Yoshi? Yoshi Yoshi Yoshi! (You want to be knocked out? I’ll get revenge for what you did to me!)

Fighter: Bring it, Dragon! ‘Grow, Ichi!’

Yoshi: *hand-signs* Yoshi -Yoshi! Yoshi Yoshi! (Gaming Art - Final Smash! Super Dragon!) *Yoshi grows wings and starts to breathe fire*

Fighter: What the hell? You can do that?!

Yoshi: Yoshi! *Shoots a fireball at Fighter, which hits him and knocks him out*

Cecil: No…I can’t let you advance. ‘Darken, Shi!’

*A black sphere appears over the area*

Peach: I can’t see!

Yoshi: Yoshi! (Watch out!)

Luigi: Ha, your Dark Zone is no match for this! Gaming Art - Final Smash! Negative Zone!

*Luigi’s Negative Zone sphere overpowers Cecil’s attack*

Cecil: I…can’t move!

*Luigi walks over to him and gives him a fiery uppercut, knocking him out*

Peach: Alright guys, let’s catch up to Mario! *They leave the area*

~*To Be Continued*~

Hey we’ve seen this match before. I have Zelda > SMB in my bracket because I thought that Zelda would be stronger than SMB. However, last round showed that even if Zelda is indirectly stronger, It’s Freakin MARIO wins out. SMB shouldn’t have trouble beating Zelda again.

Tetris and MM2?

MM2 gets killed by stronger Nintendo, and Tetris just dies in the face of anything with a name.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: LoZ > SMB

Moltar’s Prediction is: SMB: 41% - LoZ: 35% - Tetris: 15% - Mega Man 2: 9%
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/24/2009 8:57:59 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #212
Lopen’s Analysis

I had a dream last night, I dreamt that Tetris and Mega Man 2 came into this match with a vengeance, leading both SMB and LoZ for quite some time. Eventually SMB came back after a brutal board vote but LoZ never did. The last time I had a dream about a weird GameFAQs result (believe it or not these don't happen often I'm not that obsessed!), it was in the female contest bracket and in my dream Tifa upset Samus.

So I'd like to say my dreams are premonitions. However, since Tifa did not actually win a while back, clearly they are skewed premonitions. Thusly, I won't be sporting any wacky upset here, but rather just a percentage upset. Looking at the results I simply don't see how Mega Man holds up better than Zelda did against SMB. Zelda got about 6% higher than Mega Man 2 and was up against actual Mario instead of Tetris. I think Mega Man 2 holds up better than we expect, but not enough to win.

Tetris... I think will get hurt the most by Mario showing up. Tetris's strength is in its universal recognizability, something it loses to SMB. But at the same time, it did score 40% last round which is pretty impressive. My intuitions have been so backwards in this contest, maybe this won't happen? I... I had a ROMANTIC DREAM. Then again, Zelda scored 39% with the kahuna himself in there... nahh. Percentage upset only from my dream please.

Lopen's prediction:
Super Mario Brothers - 30%
Legend of Zelda - 25%
Mega Man 2 - 23%
Tetris - 22%

Transience’s Analysis

Round 3! This means there's just two weeks left in this contest. Now we get to see the big games go against each other.

We start out round 3 with what should be a dud. Mario 1 already went to town on Zelda 1 and Tetris got tripled by Zelda 1 back in the day. Tetris might do a little better this time round, but 55% on Mega Man 2 is not very inspiring. Mario and Zelda move on here.

However, I can't help but feel like something's going to go wrong in this match. I look at Tetris and see a game you can play over and over, with an insane playrate and a lot of respect for how groundbreaking influential it is.. basically, Mario 1. I wonder if that hurts Mario 1 disproportionately or something. Mega Man 2 is also a platformer a la Mario. Zelda is actually the game that stands out here the most.

I reaaaaaaally doubt that matters though. Mario 1 should cruise. I'm just curious to see what effect these two second-rate NES titles have on our big guns.

transience's prediction:

Super Mario Bros. - 38%
The Legend of Zelda - 31%
Tetris - 19%
Mega Man 2 - 12%

Leonhart’s Analysis

Tetris: Honestly, this match is about as straightforward as it gets and doesn’t require much analysis. Tetris got tripled by the Legend of Zelda in the first Games Contest, and while that was five years ago, I don’t see any reason for this to change. It’s not like Tetris has gotten more popular in the last five years. No, L-Block’s run two years ago didn’t make it more popular. I think this is the kind of game that will fold against a big name, and you’ve got two big names here. We’ve seen Pac-Man do it, and I think Tetris will do it, too.

Mega Man 2: Well, we saw Mega Man 3 get SFF’d by Super Mario World. Chances are good that Mega Man 2 will feel the pain, too. I do think it’s got a shot at outdoing Tetris here though because I think these are two opponents that can really steal votes from it. Not that it matters, but I guess it could be a sort of moral victory for us losers who had Mega Man 2 > Tetris last round.

Super Mario Bros.: Super Mario Bros. owned the match last round, and it will own the match again this round. I don’t even think the percentages will be all that different from last round because Mario and Zelda will pound Tetris and Mega Man 2 badly. This match will tell us nothing we don’t already know. Boring.
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/24/2009 8:58:40 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #213
The Legend of Zelda: As the last round has shown us, Zelda’s not invincible. Zelda 1 got rocked by Mario 1 here. Majora’s Mask still lost to R/B/Y even with G/S thrown in. The Wind Waker got rocked by Melee again (though it did still beat Halo). Twilight Princess struggled to put away RE4. The only games that have looked really good in both rounds are Ocarina of Time and…Link’s Awakening, of all things. Strange contest this has turned out to be.

Leonhart’s Vote: Mario 1 for the win!

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Tetris – 11.35%
Mega Man 2 – 8.25%
Super Mario Bros. – 44.19%
The Legend of Zelda – 36.22%

Ed Bellis’s Analysis

Well, Mega Man 2 is out of contention after a p crappy two rounds. This thus becomes a battle between Tetris, Super Mario Bros., and Zelda 1 – coincidentally, Game Informer’s top three video games of all time from 2001 !! (cue LinkMarioSamus)

Tetris already lost to Zelda 1 in a head-to-head matchup back in ’04, so this should be an open-and-shut case, right? WRONG

I’m giving the edge to Tetris for two reasons:
1. Tetris has flat-out looked better than Zelda 1.
2. Tetris is less likely to suffer SFF from the MIGHT of SMB1 than Zelda is.


Tetris with 26.01%
Mega Man 2 with 14.45%
Super Mario Bros. with 35.09%
The Legend of Zelda with 24.45%

Guest’s Analysis - BDawg250

Round 3 starts with a whimper as the AUGH generation bracket strikes again. This is the kind of match that gets fanfiction or the two sentence write up, but since I'm just a lowly guest I don't have anything better to do so let's dive in!

The main attraction of this match is Super Mario Bros vs. The Legend of Zelda. Well, it would've been if it wasn't spoiled in round two. Mario easily beats out Zelda (only in games baby) surprising many (yeah me). Nothing in this match should really upset that balance so just give first to Mario again.

What else is in this match? Well, there's a Mega Man game in round 3. Unfortunately Mega Man 2 is gonna get pummeled by the old school bullies. I'll be gracious and spare it single digits (good luck).

That leaves Tetris. While it looked alright in the first match, 55-45 with a Mega Man game does not inspire confidence in this match. In both game contests, Tetris has shown the ability to crush ancient games nobody really cares about. When it ran into LoZ in 2004, it was trashed. Sure the old days aren't good for much, but I really don't think any amount of Nintendo leeching can make this match competitive. Besides, it's really hard for these old games to be truly independent of the big N anyway.

Vote: Forget respect or whatever LoZ is one of my faves

Super Mario Bros.: 38.6%
Legend of Zelda: 31.8%
Tetris: 18.7%
Mega Man 2: 10.9%

Crew Consensus: SMB > Zelda is the Crew pick, though Ed is siding with SMB > Tetris…
transience | Posted 5/24/2009 9:00:01 PM | message detail | filter | #214
oh Ed

well let's pray
Lopen | Posted 5/24/2009 9:02:04 PM | message detail | filter | #215
At least be cool and side with Mega Man 2...!
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
Lopen | Posted 5/24/2009 9:03:31 PM | message detail | filter | #216

I genuinely forgot fractional percentages this time. Now my conversion to the dark side is complete.
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
ZFS | Posted 5/24/2009 9:36:30 PM | message detail | filter | #217
Time for round 3.

This is probably the most predictable -- and boring -- match of the round. It's a great match for quality games, but everyone knows what the result is going to be here. Mario and Zelda are going to wreck faces here, much like they did last round, while Tetris and Mega Man fight for their scraps. There's not even much we're going to be able to take away from this because it's full of SFF.

oh well bring on tomorrow time for the best game ever to pull of the best upset ever

Super Mario Bros. -- 45%
Legend of Zelda -- 36%
Tetris -- 11%
Mega Man 2 -- 8%

Bracket: Zelda 1 > Mario 1
Favorites: Mario 1 > Mega Man 2

a metal slime appears
Ed Bellis | Posted 5/24/2009 9:37:15 PM | message detail | filter | #218
Just you wait! You'll all see !!
ed status: [00:26] <pxl> i'd steamboat her willie if you know what i mean
ZFS | Posted 5/24/2009 9:37:17 PM | message detail | filter | #219
Whoa, I see some Tetris overestimation in here. 20% this isn't happening!

a metal slime appears
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/24/2009 10:58:07 PM | message detail | filter | #220
Yeah, I was about to say what's up with the high percentages for games not SMB and LoZ here. We've already seen LoZ triple Tetris. Adding SMB to the mix doesn't help its cause.
BDawg | Posted 5/24/2009 11:12:54 PM | message detail | filter | #221
You might as well call me transcience jr. I think I'm always cramping on his percentages.
Should I start running now?
transience | Posted 5/24/2009 11:15:11 PM | message detail | filter | #222
great minds think alike
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/24/2009 11:27:05 PM | message detail | filter | #223
Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup

Well, today was unanimously expected to be a snoozefest, and for one of the few times this season we were... dead right! Darn it Halo- you're so awful these days that even your major flops are no longer exciting! (And I DO consider this one of the worse flops the series has experienced, BTW- being edged out by HL2 or 1 after seeing Master Chief '07 would be been disappointing enough, but the most hyped FPS of all time is going to lose cleanly to Portal and get straight up outperformed by Bioshock in the process... very sad.) Got to give props to MGS4 though for what is in my mind the first "wow" showing from the MGS series this season. I guess it was handed an easy setup since it was a pretty clear sore thumb, but so were MGS1 and 3, yet those games squandered the opportunity. Perhaps tranny is on to something with this being the strongest of the 4 games... in any case, after a performance like this it should certainly be in the driver's seat when it comes down to TP/Brawl/RE4.

For tonight I went with what I always realized was a pretty wacky upset, Zelda > Tetris, and my reasoning was as follows: Zelda always tops Mario but it could be a close split and both will certainly hold each other back, MM and Mario always overlap which should weaken the game even more, Tetris will stand out as the only non-NES exclusive option, plus if there's any game that could gain L-Block like momentum and pick up anti-establishment votes it would probably be Tetris. Frankly I realized it was silly going in and probably only took it in the hopes of spicing up this incredibly vanilla division (MIX THE ERAS SB), and it looks even worse now that Tetris had such a hard time putting away MM2 last round. So I give up! On to the real question of this poll:

Oh wait, Mario versus Zelda isn't a real question either, since it was spoiled last round (DIVIDE UP THE BRACKET BETTER SB). I wanted to agree with tranny about Mario relying so much on its importance and iconic status that Tetris will hurt it one the one side while NES platformer LFF might take it down a notch on the other side, allowing Zelda to make a better match of this. But then I saw the match pic- ugh! I have no problem with these artsy/cutesy/high concept images that often start springing up in later rounds, but I really think they should only be used in tandem with a whole group of pics, to help balance the pic factor out. "Generic Enemy #1" is a fine theme, but goombas are SO much more iconic and recognizable than these other options that Mario should see a pretty strong boost. Kind of like that bonus poll back in '07, where the "!" block was so iconic that it easily smashed our reigning Contest Champ.

With Mario getting that thoroughly unnecessary help, I'm going to predict something along the lines of

Super Mario Bros. - 37.66%
The Legend of Zelda - 31.40%
Tetris - 19.32%
Mega Man 2 - 11.62%

Okay, good, now don't completely collapse on me, Tetris!

The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/24/2009 11:28:27 PM | message detail | filter | #224
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/24/2009 11:30:11 PM | message detail | filter | #225
Yeah Leon, I'm shocked! Just need MM to collapse past the first 3 hours (seems a good bet) and Tetris to get some Europe support overnight... ehh, doubt Europe can do enough to get it as high as I need, but still, this should end pretty close.

The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
transience | Posted 5/24/2009 11:32:10 PM | message detail | filter | #226
MM could probably beat Tetris or at least come close here. Tetris just folds to real competition.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/24/2009 11:40:27 PM | message detail | filter | #227
I think MM2 might make a match of it. I almost predicted MM2 in third place here because I expected Tetris to fold. Both games are holding up better than I expected though.
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/25/2009 1:22:39 AM | message detail | delete | filter | #228
Metal Gear Solid 4----35.5% 40740
Portal------------------20.73% 23793
Fallout 3---------------25.48% 29243
Halo 3------------------18.29% 20996
TOTAL VOTES---------------114772

Matches Completely Correct - 29
Matches Partially Correct - 19
Matches Completely Wrong - 0

What Happened - R2 ends on a predictible note, with MGS4 easily beating Fallout 3. Portal also beats out Halo

Why it Happened - Fallout 3 was the most recent game during the GotY poll, so it's no surprise to see that's it has fallen off since then.

What Will Happen - SSBB/CoD4/MGS4/FO3, it's like I'm in January for the GotY poll!

Crew Prediction Challenge - 5 members get points

Tran - 32
HM - 28
Guest - 27
Moltar - 26
Leon - 23
Ed - 21
Lopen - 19

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Tran gets the point for MGS4, Ngirl gets the point for FO3, HM gets the point for Portal, and Lopen gets the point for Halo 3

HM - 48
Moltar - 41
Tran - 36
Guest (Luster, Zylo (3), HaRR, Kleenex (2), Soul, TRT, KP (4), Chaotic, Ngamer, GfK (3), Trout, BDawg (2), Luis, LMS (3), War, Ngirl) - 27
Lopen - 23
Leon - 22
Ed - 22
Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 49 - Bracket: LoZ > SMB - Vote: LoZ (175/256)
nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/25/2009 2:43:26 AM | message detail | filter | #229
Hey Moltar, you didn't put up a signup topic for Round 3 did you? Because if you did I missed it.
: X
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/25/2009 3:06:41 AM | message detail | filter | #230
He did but it was only for the top half of the bracket. I hope all the matches aren't taken already!
nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/25/2009 8:33:50 AM | message detail | filter | #231
Top half cool.

OOT match can still be MINE!
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/25/2009 9:01:42 AM | message detail | filter | #232
Uhm, which matches are still open?
nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/25/2009 9:14:22 AM | message detail | filter | #233
I don't know. You would have to ask Moltar.
Since he runs this show.
Ed Bellis | Posted 5/25/2009 9:46:54 AM | message detail | filter | #234
I see this match is still too close to call !!
ed status: Maybe the chef was Darkseid. You don't mess with Darkseid. -MoogleKupo141
nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/25/2009 9:49:06 AM | message detail | filter | #235
You're right Ed! Tetris is still in with a shot!
The blocks will prevail!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2009 12:11:06 PM | message detail | filter | #236
A top ten Oracle for yesterday's match and yet no accuracy points!
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/25/2009 7:45:02 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #237
interesting write-ups tonight

lots of words too
Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 49 - Bracket: LoZ > SMB - Vote: LoZ (175/256)
MetricTrout | Posted 5/25/2009 8:02:01 PM | message detail | filter | #238

I never realized how long my writeup was until after I submitted it.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2009 8:25:49 PM | message detail | filter | #239
Yeah, I'm looking forward to seeing how the Crew predicts this one. Should be good!
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/25/2009 8:28:16 PM | message detail | filter | #240
Spoilers: crew predicts it wrong!
In-de-structable. Nothing's gonna stop me now.
Ed Bellis | Posted 5/25/2009 8:36:33 PM | message detail | filter | #241
It seems I still have time !!
ed status: if it isn't my old nemesis, a truck
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/25/2009 8:43:41 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #242
Division 2: Round 3 - Match 50 – Super Mario Bros. 3 vs. Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Super Mario World vs. Final Fantasy IV

Moltar’s Analysis

Super Mario Bros. 3
Round 1 - 75.85% vs. Monkey Island, SimCity and Tecmo Super Bowl
Round 2 - 48.68% vs. Sonic 1, Street Fighter 2 and Monkey Island

What is this SMB3? So disappointing.

Sonic 1
Round 1 - 44.41% vs. Street Fighter II, Civilization and Castlevania III
Round 2 - 22.59% vs. Super Mario Bros. 3, Street Fighter 2 and Monkey Island

Sonic 1 resists SFF well-enough to advance.

Super Mario World
Round 1 - 45.78% vs. Final Fantasy, Battletoads and Prince of Persia
Round 2 - 54.13% vs. Final Fantasy IV, Final Fantasy and Mega Man 3

It’s freakin MARIO!

Final Fantasy IV
Round 1 - 50.65% vs. Mega Man 3, River City Ransom and Crystalis
Round 2 - 23.91% vs. Super Mario World, Final Fantasy and Mega Man 3

FF4 beats down the original FF to advance.

Aww jeez it’s this match. One of the most hyped matches pre-Contest is finally here. Let’s do this.

I have SMB3 > SMW in my bracket. Honestly I didn’t even have any reasoning for it beside the fact that I thought that those two games would be the two strongest. Plus, it was either this or FF4, and I felt terrible having FF4 in the semi-finals when I wasn’t even sure it would make it out of Round 2. Then again, I didn’t feel that much better with what I ended up doing.

As the contest has gone on, I’ve actually felt better about my pick. SMB3 looked great beating up nobodies in Round 1, but Round 2 was a different story. The two failure series of the Contest, Sonic and SF2, both broke 20%. Do we chalk that up to SMB3 not being as strong as we thought, or SMB3 not being able to SFF all that well? Certainly it’s not because Sonic 1 and SF2 were underestimated!

However, the match that changed the entire landscape coming into this match was SMW/FF1/FF4/MM3. There we saw Super Mario World not only out-do its Round 1 percentage, but also do better on both FF1 and FF4 combined than it did on FF1 by itself. Plus it SFFed Mega Man 3 into the ground! That looks to be something that not even SMB could do against MM2. Could this indicate that SMW is stronger and has a more loyal fanbase? You know, a loyal fanbase that can help it not get crushed against SMB3? The odds are stacked against it, but SMW is doing all it can to make it look like a real threat here.

Obviously, FF4 is the only Square game and RPG here and stands out like a sore-thumb next to all of the Mario/Nintendo/Psuedo-Nintendo (Sonic). There are a couple things going against it, like the fact that it’s originally an SNES game, so it’s not THAT far separate from Nintendo, especially the game it shares a console with, SMW. There’s also the match last round, where even after it was able to SFF FF1 into the ground, it still was far, far behind SMW. SMB3 would have to kill SMW to make up the gap between the two. We know what happens when FF games split, but we haven’t seen what two near equal Mario games do. I don’t think that the split will be bad.

All past polls have shown that SMW doesn’t get buried by SMB3, and SMW is showing that it’s stronger than we thought; maybe even up there would SMB3. So I’m sticking with my bracket and backing it here. FFIV just looked too weak last round, and I don’t think SMB3 is going to SFF SMW all that badly. There’s enough of an audience for overlap not to be a killer. FFIV has to make up a large gap here, and it’s not going to get magically stronger due to being the only Square/RPG game. Why? It’s old-Square, and that is linked closer with old-Nintendo.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: SMB3 > SMW

Moltar’s Prediction is: SMB3: 34% - SMW: 28% - FFIV: 25% - Sonic 1: 18%
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/25/2009 8:44:04 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #243
Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Time for what's likely the biggest match of the contest this side of the finals. Today will either make or break a lot of brackets, as whoever wins here means a lot about how the rest of the contest plays out. Gotta love matches like these, especially since they've been so rare up until now. It helps we're dealing with some real quality games, too, and not a bunch of fodder!

In what will be a surprise to no one, I'm sticking by my pick of Final Fantasy IV. I've championed it as being able to make the semifinals from day one, and I'm not about to back out of that now -- it helps that it's my favorite game in the contest! I expect the Crew are going to up and abandon it here, though not without some decent reasoning. It's hard to argue with SMW beating both FF and FFIV combined last round, and scoring over 50% in the process. On top of that, you also have all the Mario domination we've been seeing, which only further leads people to believe that Mario's strength is so great that not even SFF or LFF would stop both from advancing.

But I'm not buying it. I've said from the moment people were declaring SMW as the strongest -- or second strongest -- Mario game that you can't ignore what happened in round 1 with SMW/FF, especially in favor of the SFF-fest that was round 2. Yeah, arguing against beating both Final Fantasys combined is tough, but SFF can be a crazy thing. Square LFF has seemed particularly brutal this contest, too, usually hurting the stronger game.

What this comes down to for me is that this poll essentially has three Nintendo games, two of which are from the same series and all three being from the same genre. That puts FFIV in the advantageous position of not only standing out, but also being the only Square and RPG game in the poll. If you don't want to vote for Nintendo or a platformer, FFIV is going to be your pick today. It not having anything dragging it down should strengthen its franchise vote, too, which can only help.

It's also worth considering that FFIV is most likely stronger than FF1 indirectly, even if it's by the slimmest of margins. Round 1, which was by far the most neutral setting we've seen a Mario and FF game in this contest, ended up in a SMW victory with 55%. That's the match I'm looking at for today. If you figure that FFIV is stronger -- and I'd say it is by a fair bit -- then adding SMB3 and Sonic 1 to the match should be more than enough to give FFIV an easy win.

All that said, I don't think SMW's chances are terribly low. It's hard to ignore round 2, even when I want to, and the Mario domination has been undeniable ever since Mario 64 beat Chrono Trigger. I wouldn't be completely surprised if SMB3 and SMW moved on, but I do think it's unlikely. I've got to figure that FFIV has enough strength in this match to take advantage of some crazy SFF. If it can't...well, round 2 is probably dead on as far as old school FF's strength is concerned.

c'mon FFIV time to shine

Super Mario Bros. 3 -- 33%
Final Fantasy IV -- 28%
Super Mario World -- 25%
Sonic the Hedgehog -- 14%

Bracket: Mario 3 > Final Fantasy IV
Favorites: Final Fantasy IV > Mario 3

Lopen’s Analysis

Results I see as possible:

FFIV > SMB3 - FFIV gets a chance to turn the tables on SMB by exploiting a fanbase split like SMW did last round. I personally don't think this is likely, though... SMB shouldn't split as severely as old school FF, methinks.
SMB3 > FFIV - SMB3 crushes SMW and FFIV sneaks through.
SMB3 > SMW - In spite of two Mario games being around, FFIV isn't strong enough to capitalize. Possible, after seeing last round, where it beat both FF games combined.
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/25/2009 8:44:52 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #244
SMB3 > Sonic the Hedgehog - Sonic did manage 22% last round... will another Mario game getting thrown in really hurt it that much more? SMB3 could pound SMW into the dirt, and it's possible FFIV is just weak (look at how poorly MM3 did) and rSFFed FF1, as well. Explaining why the sum of the two did worse against SMW?

Well, I'm going to go with the second result here. Just seems the most logical to me. I do think the SMB split will be somewhat balanced, but both games should be weakened... and it shouldn't be balanced to the degree that FF4 threatens first. Some might say SMW has a chance to take the bigger slice of the SFF pie... I don't think so. SMW being able to beat it is purely a stats based assumption, the way I see it. "It's freaking Mario 3" is pretty much valid logic here, and fittingly to that logic, I expect roughly a 60-40 split from SMB3/SMW in this match.

Smart analysts that are one step ahead of the game will keep a close eye on this one and use it to form opinions about the Zelda damage from tomorrow's match...!

Lopen's Prediction:
It's FREAKING MARIO 3 - 33.33%
Final Fantasy IV - 24.15%
Super Mario World - 23.07%
Sonic the Hedgehog - 19.45%

Transience’s Analysis

I love Final Fantasy 4, but I don't think it's very popular.

It is a clear step below Final Fantasy 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10. Even Tactics is probably more popular. FF4 was overshadowed and forgotten the minute FF6 was released. It's gotten a bit more pub now thanks to being ported to hell and the awesome DS remake, but let's be honest: this is not a strong Final Fantasy title. Its strength resides more in the name "Final Fantasy" than "4".

Of course, nobody thinks FF4 is more popular than Mario World or Mario 3. People are talking this up because of the fanbase split between the Mario games.

But is there really a heavy fanbase split with Mario? 2d Mario games are insane. They have a massive playrate and universal adoration. People may not call them top games, but literally everyone likes Mario World and Mario 3. This is not your standard fanbase split because everyone likes them. I can see Mario World suffering if Mario 3 just SFFs it to hell, but I'm pretty sure we won't see that. There are a lot of Mario World fans out there, and they'll back their game.

I don't even think we're going to see much overlap between Mario 3 and World here. This isn't a FF1/FF4 situation where the fanbases are smaller and overlap heavily. These are timeless games that the whole world has played. Franchise voting can't stand up to that. I can't see FF4 competing here unless it's just way stronger than I think. And I don't think it's very strong.

But I'll vote for it!

transience's prediction:

Super Mario Bros. 3 - 35%
Super Mario World - 29%
Final Fantasy 4 - 24%
Sonic the Hedgehog - 12%

Leonhart’s Analysis

Super Mario Bros. 3: Here’s a huge matchup right here. You’ve got potentially two top 10 games LFFing each other and seeing if a weaker game can take advantage of it. It’s been debated by a few people that Mario 3 isn’t the most popular Mario game anymore, but I disagree until proven otherwise. I don’t think it’ll SFF the mess out of Mario World or anything, but there won’t be any doubt as to which of these two comes out on top. In my opinion, there’s no way Mario 3 doesn’t advance, but the question is if it finishes in first or second.

Sonic the Hedgehog: Sonic 1 put up a good fight against Mario 3, as good as can be expected anyway. Regardless, it’s basically a non-factor here. I think it probably gets last place here, and by a fairly wide margin. I’d like to see a Sonic Cinderella run, as odd as that sounds, but probably won’t happen!
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/25/2009 8:45:45 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #245
Super Mario World: Super Mario World put up one of the most puzzling and shocking results of the second round when it beat FFI and FFIV combined by more than it beat FFI alone in the first round. That result is obviously a fluke, but it still tells me something: Old school Mario games are HUGE. Old school Final Fantasy games, not so much. For that reason, I think Mario 3 and Mario World can both advance in spite of the statistics. I don’t think Mario World’s going to collapse under the SFF here. It’s got enough supporters to prevent that. This is just one of those scenarios where I can see the voters voting for Mario en masse just because these are two classic games. Does it make any sense? No. Do I think it could happen? Absolutely.

Final Fantasy IV: Last round, we got to see how bad Final Fantasy LFF can be. This round, we get to see how bad Mario LFF can be. I think part of the reason Mario World was able to rip that fourpack apart was because it was stronger than FFI and FFIV to begin with. Final Fantasy IV doesn’t have that advantage because it’s weaker than both of them. If it advances, I don’t expect it to be by a wide margin. I know Final Fantasy gets a lot of support around here, but for some reason, I don’t see this particular game being one that will be voted for in droves over two huge Mario games. I’m going for the “upset” here.

Leonhart’s Vote: Best game in the series, Mario 3!

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Super Mario Bros. 3 – 34.62%
Sonic the Hedgehog – 15.81%
Super Mario World – 25.96%
Final Fantasy IV – 23.61%

Ed Bellis’s Analysis

There are several big questions this match will pose: which Mario game will emerge from the SFF beating, and will there be enough of a gap for FF4 to squeeze in.

The answers are “World” and “no.”

Do I have any rational explanation for this? Pffft, no. But do I ever?

Previous rounds would indicate that Mario 3 is stronger, perhaps by a hair. But I don’t care. Previous contests – notably Liquid Snake’s 2008 run – would indicate that Final Fantasy 4 would benefit greatly from the split. But I don’t care.

I’m picking World over Bros.. 3 because I like it better.

…at least I’m being honest!

Super Mario Bros. 3 with 30.30%
Sonic the Hedgehog with 10.11%
Super Mario World with 31.31%
Final Fantasy II (IV) with 28.28%

Guest’s Analysis - MetricTrout

Super Mario Bros. 3 and Super Mario World. Have any two video games been more thoroughly compared than these two?

I could write an entire essay comparing the two games, but this thread is about contest strength. And given the history of these two games, right now, SMB3 has every advantage going in. In this poll, SMB3 scored 60.5% on SMW directly. Plus, in the 2004 contest, SMB3 outperformed SMW against Chrono Trigger, scoring 54% on SMW indirectly.

So it looks like SMB3 is significantly stronger. Right?

The problem is that we have no reliable data from anytime recent, and it is very possible that SMW has closed the gap in these five years. The demographics of this site have changed. Or rather, they have remained constant. Video games have always been most popular among people between the ages of 13-25 or so. Five years ago, most of these people started off with the NES as their first console. But as many young adults have stopped playing video games, more and more people have started off with the SNES instead. It certainly is not a plurality right now, but it still is a significant chunk of the pie.

My point is, a larger percentage of the site has not played SMB3 right now than in 2004. And while the overall playrate for SMB3 is still ridiculously high, it is not as high as it used to be. And that could make a world of difference.
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/25/2009 8:46:02 PM | message detail | filter | #246
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Ed Bellis | Posted 5/25/2009 8:46:39 PM | message detail | filter | #247
how in the flying **** do you people write so much
ed status: i'll lose to FASTFALCON on my own time
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/25/2009 8:46:41 PM | message detail | filter | #248
darn it crew got it right
I can feel it coming over me; I feel it all around me.
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/25/2009 8:46:54 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #249
But enough about demographics. Let us look at the performances of the games in this contest. The first round performances of both of these games are not particularly reliable. SMB3 was up against the weakest of fodder, and I will discuss SMW’s first round match later. But SMW has certainly more impressive than SMB3 in round 2, scoring 54.1% compared with SMB3’s 49.7%.

In the end, there is not enough evidence to say which game is stronger right now. I would say that SMB3 = SMW right now. We will obviously know which one is more popular by the end of this match, but not right now.

Oh wait, there are 2 other games in the poll.

Sonic the Hedgehog. It has looked pretty bad the last couple of contests, and it got obliterated by SMB3 last round. I think Sonic should score an equal percentage on SMB3 this round as last.

Now, for Final Fantasy 2. This has got to be the most overrated game still in the contest. It amazes me that people still think it has a chance of advancing here. How much worse would it have to do before everyone just admits that it is horribly weak? SMW nearly got 60% on it. And that is assuming that all of FF1’s votes would go to it and that Mega Man 3 is a neutral entity, both of which are not the game. Assuming that 80% of FF1’s votes go to FF2 and that 70% of MM3’s votes go to SMW, we have SMW getting over 63% on it.

But what about FF1’s first round matchup against SMW? Since FF2 > FF, is that not more indicative of FF2’s true strength? Well, no. That match was a complete fluke. Look at how many votes that match scored. More than 135000, which is more than any other match in the contest. Being the first Squaresoft match and being named "Final Fantasy" probably means that FF got a good bit of franchise voting in the first round.

But ignore the SMW matches. Even in round 1, compare FF2’s first round performance against Mega Man 3 vs. Tetris’s first round performance against Mega Man 2. Then consider the fact that MM2 > MM3, and then consider how Tetris is doing today.

Oh yeah, also consider that old Square game has looked bad all contest.

So how does all of this add up?

I might as well guess that SMW and SMB3 are exactly equal in strength. We have seen that in SFF matches where the contestants are equal, there is a stalemate for the vast majority of the match, like with Super Metroid and Super Mario Kart. It should be exciting.

And like Sonic 3 and that other game in that poll, the other two games in this one will be too weak to take advantage of the SFF. The two Mario games should be able to get around 65% of the poll, leaving Sonic and FF2 to fight for scraps. And I have to give the advantage to Sonic here; it is the only game not to appear on a Nintendo console, and is the killer app for the Genesis.

But Mario 3 or World? That is the question. There is another SNES game in the poll, which should be able to tilt the balance ever so slightly in SMB3’s favor. Even so, I would not be surprised if SMW managed to reverse this result next round.

Prediction: Super Mario Bros. 3 > Super Mario World

Super Mario Bros. 3: 33%
Super Mario World: 32%
Sonic the Hedgehog: 19%
Final Fantasy II: 16%

Crew Consensus: SMB3 > SMW is the majority pick, though we have 2 SMB3 > FFIV backers, and 1 SMW > SMB3 Ed Bellis.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2009 8:52:04 PM | message detail | filter | #250
I was wondering if someone would take Mario World > Mario 3 here. Thanks for not disappointing, Mr. Bellis!