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Best Game Ever 2 Contest Analysis Crew (Part Four)

The Real Truth | Posted 5/21/2009 9:47:15 PM | message detail | filter | #101
Lets do this RE4.

I'll take Kingdom Hearts 2 to take first, because there's too much split here. It all depends on if KH2 and TP are splitting heavily.
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transients | Posted 5/21/2009 9:48:38 PM | message detail | filter | #102
these games are all about the same strength. I'm pleased with any order, but I trust Zelda more than Kingdom Hearts or Resident Evil.
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xyzzy
ZFS | Posted 5/21/2009 9:50:00 PM | message detail | filter | #103
I think TP is a step above RE4 and KHII, but not anything huge. Enough that it shouldn't have to fight for first here.

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The Real Truth | Posted 5/21/2009 9:53:17 PM | message detail | filter | #104
RE4 is stronger. Too much chainsaw SFF. KH2 couldn't even beat RE4 when it was so different than the other games.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/21/2009 9:53:57 PM | message detail | filter | #105
KHII is still pretty different from the other games. You can make a connection to TP, but you're stretching it.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 5/21/2009 10:13:50 PM | message detail | filter | #106
DOUBLE WRITEUP MADNESS!

Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup

Somehow as soon as I locked in my pick for Halo last night I knew I'd made a huge mistake, but it was one of those you don't realize until it's too late to update your Oracle. And whoops, was my late hunch ever correct! Getting punished the entire overnight, not getting a sniff of an ASV comeback, only managing 42% directly on Diablo, and losing cleanly to a massively SFFed Wind Waker, all in a matchup where you were the only Xbox option and only FPS choice... it doesn't get much more embarrassing than that. I guess Halo's saving grace is the "128-bit multiplayer SFF" that I mentioned in my preview, and there's probably some validity to that (the ASV sure made me think so), but still, someone remind me to pick against Master Chief 100% of the time in a couple months! Other points: nice to see Wind Waker sort of redeem itself by hanging at 20%, DII looks good but I'd have to imagine SC could have done almost as well in this situation, and gosh is Melee ever beastly. Wonder how well it holds up to Ocarina.

Regarding Snake Eater and the RPG Three, hmm, seems to me its more or less a repeat of the match we just saw. You're got one standout title and three pretty weak options below it, but it should still be a fairly fun poll since there's a chance they're all equally weak. And it could be EXTRA fun because once again ToS finds itself in a pretty swell position: only GameCube option, only Nintendo option, Oblivion and WoW share the PC fanbase, and stands out well against the more mature games. (Why in the heck can't anything Metroid ever pull down a cushy no-Nintendo path like this?) Buuuuut, I just can't buy it. I could see ToS challenging WoW if it bombs hard, but that's probably the best it could do.

Oblivion vs WoW is a tougher choice, especially after seeing Diablo look so respectable, but I'm going to stick to my initial SC >~ DII >> WoW (without massive rallying) stance and pick against Blizzard in this one. I just get the impression that TES will eat up any overlapping PC fanbase the two have in common, and it's got the Xbox base to help it beyond that, plus I just thought it looked more impressive between the two last round.

That leaves us with MGS3 to discuss. I'm seeing some super-high preds for the game, which makes some sense considering how much it stands out from all the mid-carder RPG options, but again I'm going to pick against the crowd here and keep its percent a little lower. I mean, MGS1 had an even better LFF position (against basically two Nintendo options) and is an even stronger game, yet it failed to capitalize. Seems the same ought to happen to 3, especially since even though these are all RPGs they at least cover a pretty good variety of systems/platforms. So if Snake pulls in about the same 1/3 of the vote as he did against Zelda and Pokemon, we're looking at:

Metal Gear Solid 3 - 33.31%
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion - 23.29%
World of Warcraft - 22.34%
Tales of Symphonia - 21.06%

Note: due to leaving early for Terminator I was unable to see the match pic before making this guess. Looking at it now, I think I would lower Oblivion slightly (logo doesn't stand out well enough), raise MGS, lower ToS a bit (too zoomed out, though I guess it does have SWORDZ), and give WoW a slight boost (pink elf TJF is surely the strongest of all!). Let's see if that would have backfired on me...

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/21/2009 10:14:29 PM | message detail | filter | #107
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/21/2009 10:30:14 PM | message detail | filter | #108
Oh wow, almost a perfect pred from me (expect I had MGS a little high)! Oh wow, only one in the Crew to correctly pick Oblivion (what the CRUNK? Ed Bellis and Lopen are allowed to take wacky upsets, not all seven of you)! And hm, seems that looking at the pic would only have hurt my percentages. Well that's interesting.

Now to start thinking about this intense next match!

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The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/21/2009 10:54:47 PM | message detail | filter | #109
Well, I could have whooped you guys here in this match, as far as the predictions go. I think I pegged MGS3 for 31%, Oblivion for 24%, ToS for 23%, and WoW for 22%. My percentages for everything except Tales (why did I OVERESTIMATE it?) look fine.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/21/2009 11:13:40 PM | message detail | filter | #110
This is insane. No one on the Crew has RE4 > TP. At this point, that result could end up happening here. Looks like the RE4 > TP pick I had in my bracket could pay off for me.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/21/2009 11:18:16 PM | message detail | filter | #111
It could happen. I like TP > RE4 right now though. KHII bombed here though. What gives?
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Ngamer64 | Posted 5/21/2009 11:28:35 PM | message detail | filter | #112
Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup

*see above for some MGS3/Oblivion thoughts* (though I'll briefly add to that how disappointed I am in the MGS series once again failing to capitalize on almost ideal opponents. I guess it lost some late night and overnight votes thanks to WoW rallying and then got crunched in the day by Xbox voters being excited to push Oblivion back out in front, but still, this is what, 60% on a ToS that was dealing with 2 other more popular RPG choices? really would have thought this game could maintain more of its R1 percentage than that)

Heck of a matchup tonight! Let's get the easy (?) stuff out of the way first so we can dig into the meat: TP should win comfortably and HL2 should finish 4th comfortably. Post-N64 Nintendo has been sketchy nearly every time out, its true, but as a mid-tier Zelda option in a poll with nothing else Zelda/Mario/Smash, I feel fine backing TP (though I don't expect any kind of blowout). HL2 I actually think will impress by holding on to more of its R1 performance than you might expect, as Gordon often does, but the other options are a step above and with no Samus/Ganon-style SFF to push one of them back down, I can't see it catching up to anything.

And so it all comes down to KH2 vs RE4. Let's itemize this baby.

Points in KHII's favor:
* RE4 has hands in the GC, PS2, and Wii cookie jars. but there's an option here that out prioritizes it on both the GC and Wii (presumably) and another that out prioritizes it on the PS2 (probably?)

* RE4 appeals to voters who like mature, action-heavy FPS adventures. but there's another mature FPS option in this poll

* KH2 already came within a few inches of knocking off RE4 once, and its older brother legitimized that performance by looking arguably even more impressive in going toe to toe with FFX

* shooters have been bombing relative to expectations this entire season. nearly the only exception to that rule has been HL2, which... doesn't help Leon a bit!

* during their R1 matchup, Resident Evil 5 was drawing in tons of RE fans by being the #1 FAQ on the site (except for maybe Pokemon Platinum?). but now the hype has died off and it's currently sitting back in 10th place

Golly, not looking for very good for RE fans! Let's see what 4 can counter with.

Points in RE4's favor:
* um... Gears of War chainsaw LFF?

* Nintendo SFF probably doesn't bury it THAT bad, considering how well it held up to all those GC/Wii options in that Game of the Decade poll. then again, FFX held up even better, and we now know that KH1 is only a bit back of X, and KH2 is possibly even stronger than its- you know what, scratch this point

Wowza, seems like we have a very clear choice here! I'm going to put my foot down and side with...
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/21/2009 11:29:13 PM | message detail | filter | #113
Resident Evil 4.

WHAT? I've decided to overlook overlap and x-stats and past results and take a different perspective on this one. Sure there are thousands of people who like Kingdom Hearts, but there are also a good number that support RE4- and they don't just like it, they love it. Seems to me KH is a series with a very high playrate that would have no trouble beating up on "meh" competition, but that voters would abandon when options they really love come along, and I'd argue there are three of those in tonight's poll. Also I'm expecting Europe to limit KH's damage overnight (they generally love both Valve and Square, but seem pretty apathetic about KH for whatever reason) and Zelda to limit KH's morning and ASV kicks. And if push comes to shove, I don't see any way RE fans allow it to lose a match that's still debatable in the final hour. That's why I'm betting against all of the stats and factors I love so much and pulling the trigger on

The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess - 29.97%
Resident Evil 4 - 24.73%
Kingdom Hearts II - 24.70%
Half-Life 2 - 20.61%

Whooo!

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/21/2009 11:38:14 PM | message detail | filter | #114
transients | Posted 5/21/2009 11:42:15 PM | message detail | filter | #115
aww yeah only official member with the completely unpredictable TP > RE4
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xyzzy
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/21/2009 11:43:21 PM | message detail | filter | #116
Yes! The right game is winning! Too bad the other right game is in 4th place.
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/21/2009 11:43:44 PM | message detail | filter | #117
Huzzah! * high fives tranny* Way to live up to our picks (and more!), RE4! I think it basically boils down to what I had in that last paragraph- KH has the playrate advantage and GameFAQs likes voting RPGs, but most of the 34% who took RE4 last round REALLY like it while alot of the 33% of KH voters were more "ehh, none of these other options really strike me." I'm expecting FFX to increase the distance between itself and KH1 next round for the same reason.

And yes, I feel pretty good about TP > RE4 by the time the dust settles here. The overnight crowd is so anti-Nintendo that RE should be able to build up a decent lead, but with both the Zelda and KH fanbases on the prowl I've got to imagine it take a major dive once the sun rises, which ought to put it back in TP's wheelhouse.

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Chaotic Mind | Posted 5/21/2009 11:46:19 PM | message detail | filter | #118
*gets ready to laugh at the Crew as promised*

Oh and ^5 Luster, you know what's up!
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Flash runs alongside Balefire watching marshmallows stop existing. - WarThaNemesis2
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/21/2009 11:57:08 PM | message detail | filter | #119
And yes, I feel pretty good about TP > RE4 by the time the dust settles here. The overnight crowd is so anti-Nintendo that RE should be able to build up a decent lead, but with both the Zelda and KH fanbases on the prowl I've got to imagine it take a major dive once the sun rises, which ought to put it back in TP's wheelhouse.

There haven't been any major comebacks yet in this contest. Even Halo could only manage about a 1000 vote comeback on Diablo II last round. The ASV of games just isn't as strong as the ASV of the characters. I like RE4 > TP if RE4 could go into the ASV with just a 1000 vote lead. RE4's day vote isn't going to be as bad as that of the older RE games and that's because it has the advantage of being released on a Nintendo console.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
MetricTrout | Posted 5/22/2009 12:02:40 AM | message detail | filter | #120
Super Mario 64 came back by almost 4000 votes against Chrono Trigger. Granted, the match was never in question, though. Now replace CT with RE4 and SM64 with TP and that is what I expect to see here.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/22/2009 12:05:33 AM | message detail | filter | #121
Super Mario 64 came back by almost 4000 votes against Chrono Trigger. Granted, the match was never in question, though. Now replace CT with RE4 and SM64 with TP and that is what I expect to see here.

Chrono Trigger's day vote is really horrible and Super Mario 64 is really good during that time. That was also a weekend match, meaning the day vote starts in the morning instead of later in the day. RE4 will not be as bad as Chrono Trigger during the day, though.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/22/2009 12:06:19 AM | message detail | filter | #122
Well yes, DII is a worse Day Vote option than RE4, but the reason Halo's ASV comeback was so pathetic was because THIS was happening up top.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3489&type=2&seconds=900

Comebacks haven't been happening, but its not as though there haven't been huge night versus day trend shifts this season, as Melee displayed there. I doubt TP has as much ASV kick as SSB, but I doubt it needs that much to overtake RE.

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(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either)
transients | Posted 5/22/2009 12:08:29 AM | message detail | filter | #123
RE4 > TP lookin' better and better. I think I'd call it the favourite at this point.
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/22/2009 12:11:20 AM | message detail | filter | #124
Meh, RE4 isn't really building any sort of substantial lead right now.
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MetricTrout | Posted 5/22/2009 12:11:40 AM | message detail | filter | #125
Chrono Trigger's day vote is really horrible and Super Mario 64 is really good during that time.

Bingo.
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Chaotic Mind | Posted 5/22/2009 12:11:45 AM | message detail | filter | #126
TP is more than likely going to split the ASV with KH2 though. It's not going to get the boost it normally would there. If this is close at all then next round will be TP>RE4, but i'm now 90% sure this round will be RE4>TP and if RE4 can build a big enough lead i might take RE4>TP next round too.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/22/2009 12:12:10 AM | message detail | filter | #127
Mario 64 did not "come back" from 4000 votes. It swung 4000 votes. There's a huge difference.
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transience | Posted 5/22/2009 12:26:49 AM | message detail | filter | #128
Meh, RE4 isn't really building any sort of substantial lead right now.

wait for 1:30. though I guess that last update isn't too inspiring...
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xyzzy
"Actually, fire didn't make Sephiroth awesome. Sephiroth made fire awesome." -Karma Hunter
Lopen | Posted 5/22/2009 1:07:51 AM | message detail | filter | #129
Liking RE4 > KH2 right now, actually. Zelda took the power hour, KH2's worst time, and from here on out it's only going to drop. There is no voting block it should be expected to win. Zelda's night vote is bad, and it's strong at the ASV but KH is a god with it.

In fact at this point I like KH2 > RE4 more than TP placing.
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transience | Posted 5/22/2009 1:09:10 AM | message detail | filter | #130
Zelda will do fine with that vote. better than KH2.
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Lopen | Posted 5/22/2009 1:10:57 AM | message detail | filter | #131
Which?

TP's percentage is dropping like a rock. I expect it to be in third or close to it when daylight hits.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/22/2009 1:12:02 AM | message detail | filter | #132
Liking RE4 > KH2 right now, actually. Zelda took the power hour, KH2's worst time, and from here on out it's only going to drop. There is no voting block it should be expected to win. Zelda's night vote is bad, and it's strong at the ASV but KH is a god with it.

In fact at this point I like KH2 > RE4 more than TP placing.


Okay, that's 3 straight cuts for KH2 on both RE4 and TP right now. As Lopen would probably say "FEAR THE KH2 NIGHT VOTE!".
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/22/2009 11:04:22 AM | message detail | filter | #133
TP's got first place locked up. RE4's probably fine, too, but I want to see KHII make a run at it. We need a good comeback. This contest hasn't had one yet.
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Lopen | Posted 5/22/2009 11:05:37 AM | message detail | filter | #134
Yeah. That's why I hate this contest. 500 votes was the best comeback I mean really come on now.
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This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/22/2009 2:55:36 PM | message detail | filter | #135
You might find yourself less disappointed in these comeback attempts if you would stop saying ridiculous things like "at this point I like KH2 > RE4 more than TP placing."

Just a friendly tip!

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The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either)
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/22/2009 2:56:25 PM | message detail | filter | #136
It wasn't really that ridiculous.
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transients | Posted 5/22/2009 4:42:26 PM | message detail | filter | #137
Which?

the afterschool vote.. looks like I was wrong, they're going about the same.

looking forward to tonight. no idea how the crew goes here.
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xyzzy
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/22/2009 5:07:33 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #138
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion----24.88% 28551
Tales of Symphonia-----------------20.7% 23752
Metal Gear Solid 3-----------------31.67% 36349
World of Warcraft------------------22.75% 26111
TOTAL VOTES------------------------------114763

Matches Completely Correct - 28
Matches Partially Correct - 17
Matches Completely Wrong - 0


What Happened - Well, MGS3 took first as expected. However, the three-man race for second ends up going to Oblivion, who locked the match up with the morning vote.


Why it Happened - WoW and ToS just weren't strong enough to beat out Oblivion.


What Will Happen - These games are in for a world of hurt next round.


Crew Prediction Challenge - No points

Tran - 29
Guest - 27
HM - 26
Moltar - 25
Leon - 22
Ed - 21
Lopen - 18


Crew Accuracy Challenge - Leon gets the point for MGS3, Tran gets the point for ToS and WoW, and KP gets the point for Oblivion

HM - 43
Moltar - 40
Tran - 32
Guest (Luster, Zylo (3), HaRR, Kleenex (2), Soul, TRT, KP (4), Chaotic, Ngamer, GfK (3), Trout, BDawg (2), Luis, LMS (3)) - 25
Lopen - 22
Leon - 22
Ed - 21
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 46 - Bracket: TP > RE4 - Vote: RE4 (155/232)
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/22/2009 8:35:40 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #139
Division 8: Round 2 - Match 47 – Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs. Grand Theft Auto IV vs. Call of Duty 4 vs. Super Mario Galaxy

Moltar’s Analysis

Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Round 1 - 47.05% vs. Grand Theft Auto IV, Street Fighter IV and Persona 4

Not bad, Brawl. Not bad.

Grand Theft Auto IV
Round 1 - 26.20% vs. Super Smash Bros. Brawl, Street Fighter IV and Persona 4

Well, at least it didn’t disappoint.

Call of Duty 4
Round 1 - 35.79% vs. Super Mario Galaxy, Pokemon D/P and Team Fortress 2

Wow

Super Mario Galaxy
Round 1 - 28.47% vs. Call of Duty 4, Pokemon D/P and Team Fortress 2

Augh

I have CoD4 > Brawl in my bracket. I figured that Galaxy and Brawl would split and allow for CoD4 to take first. With Brawl being stronger than Galaxy, it would be the one to advance out of the two.

Not going to lie, I was feeling pretty awful about this until the second match of the last division, when CoD4 blindsided Galaxy. Brawl did about as expected, but no doubt Galaxy disappointed. The fact that it split hard with D/P, which should have some decent strength if the other Pokemon games say anything, tells me that Brawl is not only going to beat it, but it may even dish out some SFF.

So the top two are CoD4 and Brawl, but the order they place in is the question. If the Brawl/Galaxy split is close, CoD4 takes it. If Brawl crushes Galaxy, it wins. What’s more likely is some kind of middle-ground. CoD4 should be able to put up a percentage close to what it got in R1, as I don’t see GTA4 hurting it much more than TF2 did. Hell, GTA4’s performance looks even worse after SF performed bad in all its matches (and Persona 4 you know is weak) so I’m really not expecting much from it, especially now that a better-received “mature” game is here.

To conclude, I think CoD4 takes first in a close one. Even though Galaxy got beat last round, it’s still a strong game that will hinder Brawl. Both games draw from a very similar audience in the Wii fanbase, and while Brawl has the casual love, Galaxy gets a lot of respect, which should keep it from falling too low.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: CoD4 > Brawl

Moltar’s Prediction is: CoD4: 32% - Brawl: 31% - Galaxy: 22% - GTA4: 15%



Lopen’s Analysis

Another brief one coming. I'll just say that I don't think that Galaxy suffered too much from SFF with Pokemanz DP last round. I mean, thinking about it, THE CALL OF DUTY has every reason to beat SMG legit. In the GotY poll, in a match that potentially bestows massive overlap, between it, Halo 3, and SMG, it came within what, 10%? I think THE CALL OF DUTY is legit, here.

Of course, no one here is going to question it can beat SMG again, they're going to question whether it can beat Brawl. This upset gets a big two thumbs up from me. Two Nintendo titles on the same system are gonna have some splitting issues, methinks. I also don't think Brawl has a huge advantage over Galaxy in the first place. Look at how Halo 3 did against Fallout 3 last round for example, then compare that with Fallout 3 vs SSBB and Halo 3->CoD->SMG... and uhhh, yeah that's a lot of extrapolation and GotY use, but I'm just sayin the evidence is there. THE CALL OF DUTY should potentially have enough gas to take Brawl straight up, and the SFF implications are just gravy methinks.

Lopen's prediction:
THE CALL OF DUTY - 31.07%
Super Smash Brothers Brawl - 27.70%
Super Mario Galaxy - 24.14%
GTA4 - 17.09%
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/22/2009 8:35:59 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #140
Transience’s Analysis

It's nice to see Resident Evil 4 go toe to toe with Nintendo and Square. Sure, it's not winning, but it's able to compete with some of the mid-high tier Square and Nintendo games. Can you say that about any other game this contest? This reminds me a lot of 2004 -- Nintendo and Square utter domination, "all Zelda final four", etc etc, only to end up with the few games that could stop the onslaught of Zelda, Mario and Final Fantasy. Square and Nintendo always dominate the early rounds. RE4 looks like it can go somewhere now that it's an independent entity in a sea of Nintendo.

Now then, tonight's match... COD4 should be the favourite. It beat Galaxy handily last round, and the overlap between the two biggest Wii games should be greater than the overlap between Galaxy and Pokemon. The Wii audience on here seems pretty sparse these days, so I'm not really sure if they can pull in big enough numbers unless Brawl just pounds Galaxy into the ground, something that doesn't seen that likely given Galaxy's warm reception.

But I'm going with Brawl anyway.

This contest has shown something to me: it's not a Nintendo decline, it's a Wii decline. TP is looking much weaker than in 2006 and Galaxy had probably the worst performance of round 1. This makes Brawl look really bad.

But here's the thing -- we've seen Brawl post-shift already, and it did pretty well compared to the others. It beat MGS4 and Fallout 3. It probably would have handled Galaxy. It's still one of the most talked about games on the site. Its release was so huge that Galaxy was an afterthought. You don't need to own a Wii or even like the Wii to have played it.

On the other side, you've got COD4 and GTA4, the two biggest casual draws of this new generation. Both sold like crazy, both get eaten up by casuals, and there's probably a vote split there. COD4's gotta prove it to me here. I'm not taking it for first until it can beat a game I respect. That game will be Brawl.

transience's prediction:

Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 35%
Call of Duty 4 - 31%
Super Mario Galaxy - 20%
Grand Theft Auto 4 - 14%



Leonhart’s Analysis

Super Smash Bros. Brawl: Brawl won its first round match without much of a problem, but it wasn’t an overly tough fourpack. It scored 64% on GTA IV, which is pretty good, I figure. Of course, this match is all about how the LFF falls between Brawl and Galaxy. SSBB would have to be a beast to beat CoD4 despite Galaxy, and I don’t think it’s a beast. However, I have been a big proponent from the beginning that Brawl beats Galaxy straight up, and the first round only seemed to confirm that to me. Despite my love for Galaxy, it’s nothing special, and this site loves Smash Bros. Sure, Galaxy is a mainline Super Mario platformer, but we’ve seen SSB as a series stand up to SMB as a series. Sure, you can blame that on hype and say it may not do it again, but that still says a lot about how much this site loves Smash Bros.

Grand Theft Auto IV: Grand Theft Auto IV has no chance here unless Brawl and Galaxy LFF horribly, which I suppose is possible but unlikely. Brawl put up 65% on GTA IV in round one. RBY did that to Majora’s Mask in round one, and the Zelda game couldn’t make up the difference when you added GS to the mix. Zelda also being Nintendo could’ve hurt its chances, but I think the difference is just too much for GTA IV to make up and contend.

Call of Duty 4: One of the biggest shockers of the first round was watching Call of Duty 4 open up a can on Mario Galaxy from the very beginning of the match and never letting up. You can probably expect more of the same here because if Galaxy was getting LFF’d by D/P last round, then you can only imagine what adding a game of equal or greater strength will do. Call of Duty 4 should be an easy first place here, setting up a solid divisional final of Brawl/CoD4/MGS4/Fallout 3.
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/22/2009 8:37:04 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #141
Super Mario Galaxy: Man, did Galaxy drop a stink bomb last round or what? It’s like the rest of the series took it personally because the other Mario games have been the star of the second round. Of course, it looks like the series gets to end on a bad note again as I expect Galaxy to fall short yet again. The possibility that it could beat Brawl is out there, but it couldn’t beat Twilight Princess being hindered by another Zelda when Galaxy was as strong as it will ever be. I think Brawl would give TP a good fight, if not beat it, so I don’t expect Galaxy to best Brawl here. I won’t complain if it does because I do love me some Galaxy.

Leonhart’s Vote: One of the best 3-D platformers ever, Super Mario Galaxy!

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 28.25%
Grand Theft Auto IV – 15.73%
Call of Duty 4 – 33.03%
Super Mario Galaxy – 22.99%



Guest’s Analysis - BlAcK TuRtLe

Super Smash Bros Brawl

Stronger than Melee. Anybody wanna fight about it?

Grand Theft Auto 4

I maintain that this is the strongest GTA until something changes my mind.

Call of Duty 4

Well, I had to get SOMETHING right in this bracket

Super Mario Galaxy

lol harrich

Analysis:

I'm like 5th from last in the Guru, but I called this half division perfectly, and that makes me happy.

There's not a whole lot to say here. Pre-contest, nobody believed me when I said CoD was going to take first place in the first and second round, and nobody believed me when I said that Brawl was going to wind up considerably stronger than SMG. Well, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves, but I think it's safe to say that this little gem is this year's Pikachu, in that it was a seemingly obvious pick that noone wanted to take.

Enough gloating, let's look at the numbers:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3474
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3475

As you can see, Call of Duty beat Galaxy pretty hard with just a third tier Pokemon game there. Now we will have the 2 biggest (only worthwhile) Wii games splitting pretty hard with eachother. We could realistically see CoD break 30% again. As for Brawl/Galaxy, it just seems to me that Brawl was far more impressive and has way more reason to win. People will cry "hype to hate" until the cows come home, but the fact is that nobody outside of those professional Smash players with no lives give 2 damns about Brawl's supposed "flaws". They see better graphics, more characters and much more fun mechanics as a vast improvement, which is why I'd take Brawl over Melee both directly and indirectly.

And once again people will bring up the 2007 and 2008 Game of the Year polls, but I think those have been debunked enough to this point that not even LinkMarioSamus will bother trying to pull anything useful out of them.

TuRtLe's Prediction: CoD4 33%, Brawl 28%, GTA4 21%, Galaxy 18%
TuRtLe's Bracket: CoD4 > Brawl
TuRtLe's Vote: Brawl



Crew Consensus: CoD4 > Brawl is the consensus, though Tran hopes to benefit again by going against the majority with Brawl > CoD4
transients | Posted 5/22/2009 8:37:48 PM | message detail | filter | #142
time to add more points to my lead
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xyzzy
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/22/2009 8:38:50 PM | message detail | filter | #143
Yeah, anyone not taking CoD4 for first here is bonkers. Just saying!

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
Ed Bellis | Posted 5/22/2009 8:49:30 PM | message detail | filter | #144
Match 46

Call of Duty 4 already manhandled Galaxy, and it will soon do so to Brawl. Wii games and next-gen Nintendo really haven’t done all that well in the contest, whereas CoD4 managed to impress last round. Brawl… it might take first. It’ll be close!

(…god that was halfassed)

Super Smash Bros. Brawl with 33.80%
Grand Theft Auto IV with 17.17%
Call of Duty 4 with 34.55%
Super Mario Galaxy with 14.48%

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This was KING BELLIS LOL
ed status: if it isn't my old nemesis, a truck
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/22/2009 8:53:54 PM | message detail | filter | #145
If Brawl is stronger than Melee, it can win this match. I'll just go ahead and say that. Doesn't mean it's automatically stronger if it does or automatically weaker if it doesn't, but I feel like Melee would win this match anyway.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
transients | Posted 5/22/2009 8:56:57 PM | message detail | filter | #146
I don't think Brawl is stronger than Melee, but I do think it's a good bit stronger than COD4. I just don't believe in COD4 yet despite its good performances.
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xyzzy
BDawg | Posted 5/22/2009 8:58:24 PM | message detail | filter | #147
I had Street Fighter 4 > Smash in this match. So you know right idea horrible execution.
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Should I start running now?
Ed Bellis | Posted 5/22/2009 8:58:54 PM | message detail | filter | #148

From: BDawg | #147
I had Street Fighter 4 > Smash in this match. So you know right idea horrible execution.


Hey, same!
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This was KING BELLIS LOL
ed status: if it isn't my old nemesis, a truck
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/22/2009 8:59:30 PM | message detail | filter | #149
CoD4 has given me far more reason to believe in it than Brawl has. Brawl nearly lost the GotY poll to MGS4 and Fallout 3, and beat up on Persona 4, SFIV, and GTAIV.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
ZFS | Posted 5/22/2009 9:01:52 PM | message detail | filter | #150
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]