GameFAQs Contests
Best Game Ever 2 Contest Analysis Crew (Part Four)
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dammit get off my train --- xyzzy |
AIN'T NO GETTIN OFFA THIS TRAIN --- This was KING BELLIS LOL ed status: Maybe the chef was Darkseid. You don't mess with Darkseid. -MoogleKupo141 |
LTTP gets most of the picks, most of them by pretty decent margins too. That....encourages me about Mario 64's chances! --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
Zelda Wii derails the train --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup What a pure "wow" performance by Brawl. I mean obviously the game was in a great position due to all the factors I got into last time, but two of our best predictors (tranny and Leon) also saw all those factors coming in yet still messed up the Brawl/MGS4 gap by nearly 10%- now that's the mark of an impressive performance! SSBB pulled a great ASV, but you really can't go too wild about that considering how MGS is traditionally at its worse during that timeframe. What really shocked me was how well it held up overnight; it never even allowed 4 to make a legit cut, unlike Melee which got gouged by FFX for hours at a time! Between Brawl smacking around MGS4 by 10 and TP crushing RE4 by 9, all of a sudden this next round has gotten a whole lot more interesting. Is RE4 going to top MGS4 to prove 3 > 4? Since they're clearly the strongest two games, could BOTH Wii flagship titles possibly survive? Is TP going to hang so tough that the two just murder each other and let those strong independent titles advance instead? Anything seems possible right now! Okay, but moving ahead to tonight. This one is... just insane. I know everyone has been way down on LFF this season, and I have to admit that it hasn't been nearly as big a deal as it was back in '07 and '08. And I further realize that last round's Mario > Mario >>> FF result makes it seem pretty silly to think that a Nintendo-backed and therefore less independent non-Mario option is going to benefit from LFF when Final Fantasy couldn't. Well... call me crazy, but I still like Zelda here! Everything we've seen this season makes it abundantly clear that this is the weakest game in the pack, and probably by a decent margin, but we're talking about a situation we've never even come close to in these Contests before. THREE flippin' Marios? Come on, it's a given that something wacky is going to happen, and a major Zelda overperformance seems the most likely option. That being said, I can't imagine it wins easily. We know World v 3 is going to be very tight (I'll give SMW the benefit of the doubt just for being the most recent slash only non NES option, but it's probably with a percentage pt either way) and I think they'll both finish hot on Zelda's heels. As for Mario 1, ehhh... if any other series were in this position I'd pick the weakest of its three games to collapse right through the basement, but I have a hard time seeing that happen to something as respected and iconic as M1. It'll get hammered, yes, but I'm thinking the game still has enough supporters to keep it afloat in the low teens or so. Which means we should be looking at a final percentage right around The Legend of Zelda - 29.32% Super Mario World - 29.21% Super Mario Bros. 3 - 28.97% Super Mario Bros. - 12.50% Seems... risky, but I like it! --- The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/ (thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either) |
Wow,
we took the exact opposite prediction for this match (well, you had
Zelda 1 > Mario World while I picked Mario 3 > Mario 1). |
Argh, my bracket is officially dead. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
Super Mario Bros.-------11.07% 12922 The Legend of Zelda----28.97% 33816 Super Mario Bros. 3---------29% 33855 Super Mario World------30.96% 36149 TOTAL VOTES--------------------116742 Matches Completely Correct - 37 Matches Partially Correct - 20 Matches Completely Wrong - 0 Results - Well this was a doozy. SMW took an early lead and never looked back. Meanwhile, SMB3 started well, but the ASV allowed Zelda to catch up. After a 10 hour struggle, Zelda caught up, and the two went back and forth until Zelda got 11:45'd by Mario. Oh well. Post-Match Comments - Either the NES split or random variation allowed for SMW to beat SMB3 this time around. Zelda also standing out in this pack of Mario seemed to help it as well. Next Round Preview - SMW/SMB3 is 1-1, winner takes all next round. Crew Prediction Challenge - Points for 3 Tran - 39 Guest - 34 Moltar - 34 HM - 32 Leon - 28 Ed - 26 Lopen - 26 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Moltar and Ed get points for SMW, Moltar and Tran nail SMB3, Moltar gets the point for LoZ, and Moltar and Tran get the point for SMB HM - 57 Moltar - 53 Tran - 42 Guest (Luster, Zylo (3), HaRR, Kleenex (2), Soul, TRT (2), KP (4), Chaotic, Ngamer, GfK (3), Trout (3), BDawg (2), Luis, LMS (3), War, Ngirl, Mr3790 (3), l3fty (2)) - 35 Ed - 26 Lopen - 25 Leon - 24 --- Moltar Status: complete global saturation Match 58 - Bracket: FF7 > LttP - Vote: SM64 (295/416) |
Hey, Moltar splits points with everyone! Whoo! and the two went back and forth until Zelda got 11:45'd by Mario Aw yeah, this should become a fad. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
I started this one! I like how my prediction today is almost perfect except for the fact that it only adds up to 96% --- xyzzy http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg |
Quarterfinals: Round 4 - Match 59 – The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs. Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow vs. Super Smash Bros. Melee vs. Final Fantasy X Moltar’s Analysis Ocarina of Time Round 1 - 53.79% vs. Final Fantasy IX, Half-Life and Chrono Cross Round 2 - 49.36% vs. Final Fantasy VIII, Starcraft and Final Fantasy IX Round 3 - 38.70% vs. Pokemon R/B/Y, Metal Gear Solid and Final Fantasy VIII Lost the power battle with FFVII last round Pokemon R/B/Y Round 1 - 50.68% vs. Majora’s Mask, Perfect Dark and Banjo-Kazooie Round 2 - 26.27% vs. Metal Gear Solid, Majora’s Mask and Pokemon G/S Round 3 - 22.63% vs. Ocarina of Time, Metal Gear Solid and Final Fantasy VIII Stood up against OoT, I’m impressed Super Smash Bros. Melee Round 1 - 48.58% vs. Vice City, Metroid Prime and Paper Mario Round 2 - 36.97% vs. Diablo II, Wind Waker and Halo Round 3 - 33.55% vs. Final Fantasy X, Kingdom Hearts and Diablo II Easy victory for Melee Final Fantasy X Round 1 - 45.92% vs. Metal Gear Solid 2, Morrowind and Silent Hill 2 Round 2 - 31.49% vs. Kingdom Hearts, Metal Gear Solid 2 and Vice City Round 3 - 27.58% vs. Final Fantasy X, Kingdom Hearts and Diablo II Actually distances itself from KH No time tonight augh. I have OoT > FFX in my bracket. I figured OoT would be hurt by Melee enough for FFX to advance. This match is just a mess. Super summary - OoT winz, battle for second is mostly between FFX and RBY, though Melee should hold up well. We’ve seen RBY resist SFF enough to beat MGS, but now it has Melee to fight off as well AND a stronger game to beat in FFX. Looks unlikely, and it doesn’t seem to be forming a bandwagon, so I’m going OoT > FFX here. Moltar’s Bracket Says: OoT > FFX Moltar’s Prediction is: OoT: 34% - FFX: 23% - Pokemon RBY: 22% - SSBM: 21% Lopen’s Analysis What I see in this match is a hype train... Final Fantasy X. Surely it has to win this. Unfortunately I am not a believer. Final Fantasy X is little more than hype, trying to capitalize on the news of the late 1990s: The X-Games. And just like the crazy skateboarders and such of the late 1990s, you all gobble it up. FFX doesn't have many achievements under its belt this contest. Why am I to believe that FFX will do significantly better than FFVIII did last round? I mean, I do think it'll be stronger... but thinking about this the other way... I don't think FFX is stronger than MGS. Why? I point you back to 2002 and 2003 of the character battles. When FFX and MGS were on virtually equal footing as far as series strength goes. Yeah, MGS2 (bring up the NES games and I will hurt you) was there... but how much did it do for Snake's popularity, I wonder? So then, you've got high midcarders in Tidus and Auron, and a low NNer in Solid Snake. Snake's expanded the gap since... because he's had more games, but the fact is back then... that was when they were both virtually one game entrants, and Snake moshed them. MGS also outperformed FFX on the top 100 list by a fairly large margin, and well... no reason it can't be a top 15 game looking only at the game's accomplishments and accolades. Well, there's supposed to be some manner of triple SFF here for a dangerous combination... but let me ask you, how much has raw company LFF worked in this contest? It hasn't worked! Zelda couldn't even capitalize on three MARIO games. No reason to think it's going to start here. The evidence is that Kingdom Hearts didn't hurt FFX overly much. Between the two rounds when KH2 was introduced, MGS2 improved roughly 3% on FFX. Not enough to catch up to Melee alone. The introduction of two more Nintendo elements may turn the remaining 3%, but that's being hopeful. |
As
I said before... my new contest philosophy for this format is: When in
doubt go with the one that has actually looked stronger and throw SFF
out the window. Game of the century poll hype? No thanks. Now, that might make you think "oh he's taking Smash," but personally I'm liking Pokemanz RBY here. We've seen what it did presumably "weakened" by OoT... it beat MGS with some breathing room-- a game I think is on the level of Melee and beyond FFX. I don't think the introduction of Melee is going to do anymore weakening on that front... if anything it hurts Zelda more considering it'd be console vs handheld here. Not to mention Pokemanz MOMENTUM oh yes. Was this analysis at all coherent? Who knows. SAVE_US.RAT Lopen's Prediction: ZELDA - 35.01% SAVE_US.RAT - 23.02% Melee - 21.01% The X Games - 20.96% Transience’s Analysis I am trying to come up with a single match that has been determined by so-called "LFF". Sonic 1 was supposed to lose to SF2 because of it. Metroid was supposed to lose to Contra because of it. Kingdom Hearts was supposed to lose to MGS2 or Metroid Prime because of it. Super Metroid and Mario Kart were supposed to give Sonic 3 a good chance to advance. Basically, if you made your bracket based on the idea of overlap, it's very, very red right now. The only real overlap we've seen is SFF between games of the same series. So how about this Nintendo-heavy match with three unique franchises, three unique genres and three unique consoles? Pokemon just beat Metal Gear Solid and FF8 despite the god of all Nintendo games being in the same poll. FFX had Kingdom Hearts in the poll with Melee, but the difference was probably too great for there to be a reversal. The end result are three games that look really close. What fanbase comes through? My first instinct is Pokemon. That is one dedicated bunch of pokefreaks. I almost feel like they're guaranteed a certain percentage based on nostalgia and rabid-ness. But then I look at Melee, a game with an audience so rabid that I often look down on them because they seem so pathetic while discussing their metagame and their advanced techniques and who knows what else. People call this game casual, but I call it the single biggest game of the last generation. It's far enough removed from Ocarina of Time in every way to avoid the SFF-hammer. Melee, Pokemon and OOT should be fighting for that Nintendo vote. It's not going to overlap too much because Nintendo hits everyone. Something like 86% of the site has played OOT. 85% played RBY. 75% probably played Melee. I don't think overlap will be a problem - that Nintendo base is massive and nearly unanimous amongst our audience. Everyone has played these games. (We'll ignore the fact that I've never played OOT or RBY.) So what of FFX? Ultimately, I'm going to go with it. The reason is the damn Game of the Century poll, which has replaced The List as our newest source of misinformation. FFX went up against a truckload of Nintendo games and came out far ahead. Now that we've seen that overlap isn't that important, FFX looks even better from this. I think that Square fanbase will vote blindly for a top-tier FF title, especially one that's liked. FFX is a liked one. I wasn't convinced on FF8 getting the full support of the base, but I think FFX will be okay. I feel bad about not picking one of the other two - I think FFX is the least popular game in this poll - but when you compare FFX to FF8 and Metal Gear Solid, it should be able to get enough votes to make up the difference. And Melee.. man, who the hell knows. I almost want to pick it just because nobody else will. transience's prediction: The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 36% Final Fantasy X - 22% Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow - 21% Super Smash Bros. Melee - 21% |
Leonhart’s Analysis The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time: Oh boy, this is a big match here. Ocarina of Time actually got outdone by Final Fantasy VII last round. What will it do to rebound here? Well, I think it’s going to have a hard time doing it here because of the baggage it’s carrying. It couldn’t do anything to R/B/Y last round, and I think it’ll have a hard time doing much to Melee, which has shown the ability to stand up to Nintendo in the past as well. It shouldn’t have any problem being a decent distance ahead of the rest of the pack, but if it does…Well, then it’s in trouble. Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow: Pokemon gives us yet another Cinderella run in this format. It should be expected at this point, really. However, this is going to be R/B/Y’s biggest challenge. Yes, the game has proven that it can stand up even to Ocarina of Time, but to say it was entirely unaffected…I don’t buy that. Add Melee to the mix, and that doesn’t help. It will be affected, though it won’t be huge. Still, just a little might be enough to cost it. Regardless, you just can’t count this game out here. Nobody will be surprised if R/B/Y advances at this point. It’s just a matter of whether or not you’re going to pick it. Super Smash Bros. Melee: Melee had an easy enough time taking care of last round’s fourpack, putting up 55% on Final Fantasy X with Kingdom Hearts present. It’s hard to say how much that changes if you remove Kingdom Hearts, but I’d say that SSBM will be affected by Ocarina of Time more than FFX was affected by KH just because OoT is the stronger game. That’s not to say Melee doesn’t have a shot here. Its fans are hardcore nuts, and it can stand up to Ocarina of Time like R/B/Y did. I think it’s got the smallest chance of advancing here though. Final Fantasy X: Here we are, the final obstacle in the way of preventing three Nintendo games vs. Final Fantasy VII in the finals. I don’t think I’m surprising anyone by saying I’m taking Final Fantasy X here, and I’ll give you a few reasons why. I think that FFX is stronger than Metal Gear Solid, even if it’s not much. There’s the possibility that FFVIII and MGS split with one another a bit (and seeing MGS3/RE4 funny business a couple days later seems to confirm the possibility), and so Final Fantasy X not having that to worry about will help it. Then adding another Nintendo game cannot do any favors for R/B/Y, no matter how much you want to say about its LFF resistance. This match is Final Fantasy X’s to lose, and it’s got no excuses if it does. Leonhart’s Vote: Final Fantasy X! Time for Square to step it up! Leonhart’s Prediction: Ocarina of Time – 35.38% Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow – 21.67% Super Smash Bros. Melee – 20.27% Final Fantasy X – 22.68% Ed Bellis’s Analysis …dear christ. Well, Ocarina of Time gets first and that’s about the only thing that’s a given in this match. Melee and RBY could both place for second given how strong they’ve looked, and FFX even has an outside shot due to all the Nintendo overlap. I’ll be shooting for Pokemon, though – it’s got by far the most diehard fanbase, and has probably with regard to pre-contest expectations looked the best out of any game in the contest. Anything can happen, though. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time with 32% Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow with 25% Super Smash Bros. Melee with 23% Final Fantasy X with 20% Guest’s Analysis - KamikazePotato Hoo boy, another match with RBY. Let’s look at this: RBY vs. Majora’s Mask RBY vs. MGS vs GS RBY vs. MGS vs. FF8 RBY vs. FFX vs. Melee |
Only
game in the contest where every one of its matches has been interesting
and a potential “match of the round.” Between that and RBY being
several magnitudes stronger than most expected, I think it’s safe to
call RBY the star of the contest (for now, who knows what craziness
happens later). The question is…can its star shine for one round longer? I always start my write-ups with the game that I think is the obvious last place (which it usually never is, but I digress), so I’ll do the same here. Super Smash Bros. Melee is probably the 2nd strongest game in this poll. However, it’s only the 2nd strongest by a little bit; I would peg FFX as the weakest here, and Melee would probably only 51-49 it. And while it should hold up very well to OoT...it still has far more overlap with OoT than both RBY and FFX. I think that little bit of overlap kills its chances here. It won’t be anything severe, and Melee could still easily place…but I don’t think it does. Tough luck. Most people’s favorite for 2nd here will be Final Fantasy X. Considering how close it is to Melee, add in OoT and RBY and the LFF lets it cruise to an easy victory, right? After all, it stands out like a sore thumb here. Wrong. Final Fantasy X does overlap with a game: RBY. Heavily. I’ve been seeing a lot of “This is FFX vs. 3 Nintendo games” comments. Have people forgotten what RBY is? When it came out, there was no Nintendo handheld and Sony handheld. There was just the Game Boy, and everyone had one, regardless of company affiliation. And Pokemon RBY sold around 30 million copies on it. I’m pretty sure that’s more than the other three games in this poll combined. Everyone and their mother and their grandmother owned RBY. Pokemon isn’t Nintendo, Pokemon is Pokemon. Its playership is insane. Any degree of overlap it has with Melee or OoT is only going to a little bit larger than the overlap it has with FFX. Heck, at least RBY and FFX are both RPGs. For all intents and purposes…Pokemon is a neutral party. A neutral party that I would take over FFX on neutral ground, soooo…. Ocarina of Time: 34.95% Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow: 22.51% Super Smash Bros. Melee: 20.48% Final Fantasy X: 22.06% Crew Consensus: We have 3 with OoT > RBY and 3 with OoT > FFX…and 0 Heroic Mario |
I will write Heroic Mario's analysis !! There was this face on a website and it somehow wins the match best ever Ocarina of Time: 10% Metal Gear Solid: 95% --- This was KING BELLIS LOL ed status: EXTRA SUGAR EXTRA SALT EXTRA OIL MSG |
HM too busy gettin' ready for the MEGATON --- No matter what, no matter how, I know I'll make it through somehow. http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/Saturn.gif |
I want to be the very best like no one ever was Today we're marching to Bevelle, tomorrow to Zanarkand. Many hopes and fears are there, people clinging to their dreams Tonight we will destroy them all With you I know we can! Pokemon! It's you and me I know it's our destiny! Pokemon! You killed the great block and soon you shall kill the square! Pokemon! A heart so true Bandwagons shall pull us through Link and Cloud shall soon bow down Pokemon! --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
That was awful. --- I've been waiting for this moment all my life - it's my destiny. http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg |
Well, I've never played RBY for more than 5 minutes, so....... ........... --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
aww yeah crew knows whats up --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg |
Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup Wellll, I called that match wrong, but I still like my pick. I was correct in having Mario 1 get bashed down to nearly 10%, correct in favoring SWM thanks to recency, and ALMOST correct about Zelda capitalizing on the triple LFF. Actually, dang my percents must have been close... let me check the Oracle. 1) yoblazer33 Legend of Zelda 29.00% SMB 10.00% SMB 3 30.00% SMW 31.00% 49.46 12.37 2) Ngamer64 Legend of Zelda 29.32% SMB 12.50% SMB 3 28.97% SMW 29.21% 49.11 9.82 3) Master Moltar Legend of Zelda 27.00% SMB 13.00% SMB 3 29.00% SMW 31.00% 49.01 7.35 Whoa, didn't realize I did that well! Also check out that awesome Crew (and ex-Crew) domination, pretty nice. But anyways yeah, the result was close enough where if Nintendo would have just worked a LITTLE harder to produce a trailer for the new Wii Zelda in time for their morning conference Z1 would have easily advanced, and perhaps even challenged for the win, so I'm not going to beat myself up about it. With two Marios through to the next round the question becomes... can we get a third? It certainly looked possible a couple weeks back when Mario 64 stunned the world with that original CT upset, but after coming back down to earth in R3 (which I still blame mainly on GE BTW) you've got to make LttP the favorite to advance here. That being said, there are still a few things working in M64's favor: * Zelda obviously isn't a true RPG, but I still feel that its fanbase overlaps with Final Fantasy moreso than Mario- the platformer advantage makes 64 the best sore thumb candidate by genre * LttP shares the SNES with FF"3", but FF7 also shares the PSX with FF"6", making Mario one again the clear sore thumb favorite by system. it's also got recency thanks to its many re-releases, and stands out an extra amount as the only true 3D option * outside of Ocarina, Zelda just hasn't had any "wow" moments this season, while the Mario series has been scoring them seemingly every other day. clearly Mario's the one coming into this poll on a hot streak while Link's outings have been largely underwhelming All that being said... ehhh, there's still a reason we consider LttP the #3 game on the site, and I can't possibly see it having fallen like CT and FF6. I'm expecting Mario to put up another solid performance but never really be in contention to advance here. Other than that, there won't be too much to see, except that FF7 probably looks very good for the second round in a row since it will get to beat 6 into a pulp. In summary, my Awesome Oracle-Winning pred is Final Fantasy VII - 37.03% The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past - 24.95% Super Mario 64 - 24.34% Final Fantasy III (VI) - 13.68% Seems a sure bet for another Top Five showing! --- The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/ (thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either) |
i have arrived to support the good side Pokemon must be stopped. I'm pretty sure there are going to be plenty of Pokemon backers today on the Crew, especially after it managed to get by Metal Gear Solid and Final Fantasy VIII. You might hear 'FFX is stronger than FFVIII, but by how much?" Don't listen to these people ! FFX should be stronger than MGS and FFVIII easily, we've had every reason to believe this from day 1. We also saw that, despite the shift toward Nintendo in the past five years, FFX can still hang with Melee as its equal. Melee was top tier back in 2k4, and it's definitely looking top tier in 2k9, too. There shouldn't be much doubt about FFX's strength -- it could potentially be the second strongest game here before any kind of SFF. But even if it's not, it would take a huge chokejob, or Pokemon being stupidly strong to the point where it's Nintendo's second strongest game. I don't know about anyone else, but I'm not buying either of those. Three Nintendo games in the poll and then Final Fantasy X seems like a clear choice. Last round, MGS and FFVIII may not have hurt each other too much, but there's bound to be overlap there -- MGS and FF fans are often the same group of people, liking both games for similar reasons. That might have been just enough to hold MGS back, and FFX is no doubt the stronger game there. We'll see what happens, but FFX should cruise to an easy win here. If it doesn't I boycott this contest and all it stands for buncha Pokemon freakz do not believe in the 'doof HA HA HA HA 4 life (balloon mini-games can go) Ocarina of Time -- 34% Final Fantasy X -- 26% Pokemon RBY -- 21% Melee -- 19% Bracket: Ocarina of Time > Final Fantasy X Favorite: Final Fantasy X -- Second Best Ever --- http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif |
Aw yeah HM And is KP calling for RPG LFF? --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
#1 Oracle for tranny yesterday, good job --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
Hey, considering RBY is doing worse on OoT than last round, I'd say RPG LFF isn't too far out there! --- http://thengamer.com/guru/ |
my prediction only added up to 96%! that's how much LTTP overestimation there was. --- xyzzy http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg |
Hey, considering RBY is doing worse on OoT than last round, I'd say RPG LFF isn't too far out there! So FFX gets 40%+ on OoT without RBY? I can live with this! --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
In a perfect world Pokemon would've advanced. Oh well... |
In a perfect world, FFX is in first. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
No, it would be in last place here, though maybe watching a playthrough on YouTube would change my mind. |
Hmmm...Moltar a little late with the analysis tonight. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
I just got home and JUST finished writing mine. They'll be up shortly --- Moltar Status: complete global saturation Match 59 - Bracket: OoT > FFX - Vote: SSBM (327/448) |
No worries, mate! --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
Quarterfinals: Round 4 - Match 60 – The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess vs. Resident Evil 4 vs. Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs. Metal Gear Solid 3 Moltar’s Analysis Twilight Princess Round 1 - 39.10% vs. Half-Life 2, Final Fantasy XII, and Phoenix Wright Round 2 - 28.47% vs. Resident Evil 4, Kingdom Hearts II and Half-Life 2 Round 3 - 32.24% vs. Resident Evil 4, Metal Gear Solid 3 and Oblivion Good Resident Evil 4 Round 1 - 34.17% vs. Kingdom Hearts II, Shadow of the Colossus and Gears of War Round 2 - 27.00% vs. Twilight Princess, Kingdom Hearts II and Half-Life 2 Round 3 - 23.73% vs. Twilight Princess, Metal Gear Solid 3 and Oblivion Not so good Super Smash Bros. Brawl Round 1 - 47.05% vs. Grand Theft Auto IV, Street Fighter IV and Persona 4 Round 2 - 41.06% vs. Call of Cuty 4, Grand Theft Auto IV and Super Mario Galaxy Round 3 - 36.68% vs. Metal Gear Solid 4, Fallout 3 and Call of Duty 4 Good Metal Gear Solid 4 Round 1 - 41.91% vs. Portal, Bioshock and LittleBigPlanet Round 2 - 35.50% vs. Fallout 3, Portal and Halo 3 Round 3 - 26.59% vs. Super Smash Bros. Brawl, Fallout 3 and Call of Duty 4 Not so good Just got home, so this is going to be short and quick. I have MGS4 > TP in my bracket. I figured MGS4 would be pretty strong and stand out well here. TP would SFF Brawl to take second, and RE4 just wouldn’t be strong enough. In fact, I thought it would get overwhelmed here! That last part may still happen, as RE4 had to struggle against MGS3 last round just to get here. I’m pretty sure most would take MGS4 > MGS3, so if we get more MGS/RE funkiness here, I expect MGS4 to be the one that benefits. Brawl and TP may mess up my bracket though. TP hasn’t really done anything impressive thus for, while Brawl has looked dominant time and time again. I like it to place here over TP, but we’ve also seen Melee get leeched by Wind Waker and SFFed hard by OoT. TP may hinder Brawl enough for MGS4 to get first over it…but I’m not going to depend on that. I wouldn’t be surprised if both Nintendo games placed here, but I’m giving MGS4 the benefit of the doubt for second now. Last round, it didn’t look so hot, but now it’s the only next-gen non-Nintendo game here (aww yeah specifics), so it could hold up well here. Moltar’s Bracket Says: MGS4 > TP Moltar’s Prediction is: Brawl: 30% - MGS4: 26% - TP: 25% - RE4: 19% Heroic Mario’s Analysis This is probably the last match where just about anything could happen. The consensus, and most likely outcome, is Brawl > MGS4, but that requires a few things to happen. The first is that Brawl wins the SFF battle over TP, which some see likely after how Melee trashed Wind Waker, but we're seeing Ocarina completely level Melee today. OoT and TP are two different things admittedly, but who knows what happens here. I think Brawl will likely SFF TP, but not by a whole lot. The second is that Brawl is actually strong enough to withstand another new Nintendo game in the poll. Pre-contest, I think everyone thought that this match would be MGS4 and RE4 moving on -- it made complete sense then, too. Both of Metal Gear and Resident Evil are independent, and Brawl/TP have significant overlap, but the past couple of rounds have shown that MGS4 and RE4 are probably not strong enough to both advance. Neither one got close to TP or Brawl last round. I think both of those happening is likely. I can't see anything other than Brawl > MGS4 here, unless I'm completely forgetting something. The only thing that might stop this from happening is if TP holds up well, and MGS4 ends up being weaker than MGS3, in which case we could either see RE4 move on or both Nintendo games advance despite hurting each other. Let's see what happens |
Smash Bros. Brawl -- 31% Metal Gear Solid 4 -- 25% Twilight Princess -- 23% Resident Evil 4 -- 21% Bracket: Resident Evil 4 > Metal Gear Solid 4 Favorite: Metal Gear Solid 4 Lopen’s Analysis For this match... I have an interesting theory. That theory is that... well, this generation isn't really respected very much by the site when compared to everything else. I mean the 360/Wii/PS3 generation. At least, relatively speaking. I expect something bizarre... a "current generation LFF ceiling." Or something like that. Basically, I think like 30% of this site is pretty ambivalent towards this generation of games vs the old games. I don't really have too much to base this on... we've not had enough results (any?) with mixed generations where this supposed ceiling would be relevant. A pessimistic view of the industry as it stands right now, but one that makes sense to me... you know, until this write-up blows up in my face. So what does that mean, exactly? What this means is that RE4 is going to dominate this pack like none could expect. What this means is that beyond that 70% ceiling the rest of the votes will be decided by X-Factors... franchise votes and Twilight Princess's GC release. Outside that ridiculous theory, we've got a basic match to analyze. To me, RE4 has an easy win over MGS4 even throwing that theory out the window because frankly I think MGS4 is the weakest MGS due to the obvious drawback of being on the PS3 along with the mixed fan reaction (though after seeing MGS2 suck it up it may not be)... if RE4 can beat MGS3 it can beat MGS4. Brawl vs TP is interesting... TP has a stronger franchise base, and the outside GC votes to draw in... but despite seeing half-brother Melee get owned today I think Brawl is still the top dog of the Wii. I expect a reverse of the SFF tides in this match-up. But the saturation of Wii in this match will weaken Brawl enough for MGS4 to sneak by both of them. But really, I have no idea what comes out of this pack. I'm just going with a theory I've been throwing around for some time in my head... man I'll look smart if this works out! And if I don't, you'll just write it off as a Lopen upset gone wrong again! THE PERFECT PLAN! Lopen's Prediction: Resident Evil 4 - 32.30% Metal Gear Solid 4 - 26.10% Brawl - 24.09% Twilight Princess - 17.51% Transience’s Analysis Tonight's match determines the winner of the contest. The four finalists look pretty locked in unless Brawl can somehow survive a SFF beatdown from Ocarina of Time; looking at Melee today, we can count that possibility as very, very unlikely. Brawl has been awesome all contest - an absolute beatdown on Galaxy and not even letting MGS4 close to it after three tight performances five months ago. I have a hard time seeing Brawl drop this - the only competition is Twilight Princess. Trying to gauge where the SFF goes here is kinda tricky, but I see Brawl as being a MUCH bigger deal today than TP is (or ever was, really.) Brawl had mammoth hype, bigger than TP did. Brawl sold the console before it was ever out. Brawl single-handedly boosted Snake into the top 5 or 6. Brawl may have let some people down, but it also left a lot of people satisfied. Can it SFF TP? It certainly did to Galaxy. I think Brawl will hurt TP a good amount, leaving this match between MGS4 and TP. MGS3 came inches away from beating RE4 - everyone seems to agree that MGS4 is stronger, so we can kinda write RE4 off here unless something weird happens. |
TP
vs. MGS4.. after MGS4's dud last round, I'd have to give it to TP, but
not by a lot. I don't think TP is too strong, and the presence of Brawl
should be a lot more crippling than the presence of RE4 for MGS4.
There's a lot of distance between those two games. I have a hell of a
time formulating an argument or a reason for picking anything here, but
Brawl > MGS4 seems like the most logical way to go. transience's prediction: Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 33% Metal Gear Solid 4 - 26% The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess - 23% Resident Evil 4 - 18% Leonhart’s Analysis The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess: Well, last round was certainly interesting. Twilight Princess managed to beat Resident Evil 4 by 10,000 votes after beating it by less than 2,000 votes the round before. What happened? The only thing I can figure is that the presence of MGS3 hindered RE4. Well, what do we have here? Another Metal Gear Solid game? Bad news for Resident Evil 4. Of course, Twilight Princess has to deal with Super Smash Bros. Brawl here, so the big issue is how bad each split is. Brawl absolutely demolished Galaxy two rounds ago, but I don’t expect the same thing to happen here. From the looks of things, Galaxy is just weak, and while TP hasn’t performed like a top ten game like some of us thought it could, it’s definitely looked like a top 15-20 game. That should be good enough for it to handle the SFF that Brawl comes to this match with. Resident Evil 4: Resident Evil 4 definitely had a tough time dealing with Metal Gear Solid 3 last round and needed a long comeback to beat it. Now you add MGS4, a game that’s arguably stronger than MGS3, and you get a bad situation. The only thing RE4 can hope for here is that MGS4 actually isn’t stronger, which I don’t think is the case. I don’t like its chances of advancing here, but it’s not an impossible situation. There are too many unknowns to state anything conclusive about this one. I do think its odds of advancing are the lowest of the four though. Super Smash Bros. Brawl: Brawl has only looked better every round. It destroyed Galaxy in round two, and then it turned the rematch with MGS4 into a joke, beating it by 10% overall. I find it hard not to see Brawl advancing here again and probably in the first place. The big question is how badly it hurts Twilight Princess. You’re dealing with the two most hyped games of the past decade here. I don’t expect Brawl to be able to beat down Zelda quite as badly here, though it should probably get the better end of the split. Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots: MGS4 didn’t look good last round. It wasn’t competitive with Brawl at all. It was as close to Call of Duty 4 as it was to Brawl, which is not good. These ain’t the GOTY polls here, and I think the PS3 exclusivity could be hurting it now. I think GOTY polls are all about hype, so that’s why I don’t think they correlate well to contests. MGS4 can still advance here because of the Brawl/Twilight Princess split, but…I have to admit, I don’t like its chance if it ends up splitting with RE4 as well. Leonhart’s Vote: Metal Gear Solid 4! This…is my final mission. Leonhart’s Prediction: Twilight Princess – 25.13% Resident Evil 4 – 20.00% Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 31.58% Metal Gear Solid 4 – 23.29% |
Ed Bellis’s Analysis As we speak FFX is riding the SFF train to victory, a train that seemingly hadn’t existed prior to this round. (have I mentioned I hate this contest lately) Bearing this in mind, let’s examine MATCH NUMBAH SIXTEE. Twilight Princess and Brawl are the two stronger games here, but who knows what the flying bajeezus will happen in a four-way match. The games could leech off of each other enough to let both RE4 and MGS4 into the lead. The games could stay strong and both could advance. The games could only let one through and keep the other at a negative percentage for craps and giggles. The games could fuse into one supergame with tentacles and a bass-driven Shoji Meguro soundtrack. They could go out for tea and break the poll into showing Ocarina of Time with 1337%. I have no earthly idea how to predict matches when the format does not lend itself well at all to even educated guessing, and instead becomes a total crapshoot. I hate turning analyses into soapboxes, but I really hope this is the last four-way contest we see in a long time. The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess with 25% Resident Evil 4 with 25% Super Smash Bros. Brawl with 25% Metal Gear Solid 4 with 25% Crew Consensus: SSBB > MGS4 is the majority. Also represented are RE4 > MGS4, SSBB > TP, and…a four-way tie?! |
Hmmmm...One Ed Bellis of a pick indeed. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
whoaaa Ed Bellis going out on a limb here --- xyzzy |
Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup Haha, this is too crazy! A day after Zelda puts the fear of the Lord into Mario with an extremely impressive ASV comeback, Mario turns right back around and gives Zelda the scare of its life during this afternoon. Makes sense I suppose, since both times "the kiddies" favored the title with recency, though I think in today's case M64's also seeing a nice sized DS re-release boost to help out with those younger voters. It's just sad that despite so many close matches this season none of them have had that "awesome" factor because its always same company/basically same era and so there's no bad blood between the two fanbases. Currently its looking like LttP's going to hold out for the win, meaning we won't get to settle that Top Three Mario debate once and for all. Ah well; at least we get to see if LttP can capitalize against two Marios where Z1 failed to against three. And now for possibly the match of the year! This one has been covered just about every which way in everyone else's Crew writeups, so I'll just do some quick bullet points. * I had to push and shove just to find a way to get Ocarina above 35 in this one since none of these other options are going to collapse- rest assured that FF7's going to "beat" it for the second straight round, but that's a very tainted victory given how I don't think there are any two Nintendo games in the world more likely to hold up well against OoT (and therefore bring its percent down slightly) * insane that I have to take Melee for 4th place; this is literally the only (non-FF7) combination of games in this bracket where I'd pick that way. the bracket just produced a perfect storm that is going to leave this game in the basement despite being possibly the 4th or 5th strongest game on this site in a fair setting * FFX on the other hand is pretty clearly the weakest of these options, in my mind. considering the track record for 'weaker game advances thanks to LFF' this year, expecting it to happen here seems silly, and I agree, but... I'm doing it anyway. while it's true that FF8 didn't even come close to capitalizing on the Nintendo split, I've always felt that MGS and FF series have a little bit TOO much in common, at least when it comes to the PSX/2 era. so killing MGS ought to give FF a boost, replacing it with Melee should boost it even further, and X being a decent bit stronger than 8 in any kind of setting should be the icing on the cake * that being said, I feel awful about counting out Pokemon after all that this series has been through. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if RBY pulled a Pikachu here and advanced easily despite the long odds, and I really wish I could pull the trigger on that upset, but I just get the impression that FFX is no L-Block or Dante or Leon- its got enough of a fanbase to push it through to victory if things get tricky out there Converted into numerical form, those thoughts come out looking something like this: The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 35.05% Final Fantasy X - 22.52% Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow - 21.25% Super Smash Bros. Melee - 21.18% Seems... pretty good, I think! --- The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/ (thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either) |
emergency guest fill-in, take 2 Brawl is, of course, the obvious first, and Twilight Princess should be strong enough to barely muscle its way past MGS4. (I wouldn't be surprised if MGS4 made it through, though!) The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess - 24.56% Resident Evil 4 - 21.01% Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 30.31% Metal Gear Solid 4 - 24.12% --- thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris |
Hmm where's the Metal Gear fanboyism when it could've actually paid off? --- Should I start running now? |
The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past----23.14% 30049 Final Fantasy III (VI)-----------------------------13.85% 17991 Final Fantasy VII---------------------------------40.06% 52030 Super Mario 64----------------------------------22.95% 29804 TOTAL VOTES-------------------------------------------129874 Results - FF7 laying the smackdown once again. LttP ends up pretty darn close to SM64, which made a charge during the day, but ended up short in the end. Post-Match Comments - Looks like CT/LttP/Mario 64 are all pretty close. FF7 does about the same as last round, which is good for it, especially since we may be looking at two other Top 5ish games here. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time---40.76% 53216 Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow------------------20.85% 27227 Super Smash Bros. Melee------------------14.51% 18949 Final Fantasy X-------------------------------23.87% 31164 TOTAL VOTES----------------------------------------130556 Matches Completely Correct - 39 Matches Partially Correct - 20 Matches Completely Wrong - 0 Results - PokeFEAR finally ends thank you FFX. It was able to take advantage of OoT SFF and all that Nintendo leeching to take second. Post-Match Comments - RBY is more independent than Melee, that's for sure. Man it looks awful here. Great performance for OoT as well. Next Round Preview - SMW/SMB3/FF7/LttP will probably go as expected, and FFX will probably hang with OoT to the finals. Crew Prediction Challenge - Pointz Tran - 40 Moltar - 36 Guest - 35 HM - 34 Leon - 30 Lopen - 27 Ed - 26 Crew Accuracy Challenge - HM gets the point for FF7, Ed gets the point for LttP, Moltar and Tran get points for SM64, and Lopen gets the point for FF6. Tran gets the point for OoT, Moltar gets the point for FFX, Tran and HM get the point for RBY, and HM gets the point for Melee HM - 60 Moltar - 55 Tran - 45 Guest (Luster, Zylo (3), HaRR, Kleenex (2), Soul, TRT (2), KP (4), Chaotic, Ngamer, GfK (3), Trout (3), BDawg (2), Luis, LMS (3), War, Ngirl, Mr3790 (3), l3fty (2)) - 35 Ed - 27 Lopen - 26 Leon - 24 --- Moltar Status: complete global saturation Match 60 - Bracket: MGS4 > TP - Vote: MGS4 (359/480) |
looks like I'm in no man's land with the accuracy! but crew winner confirmed --- xyzzy http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg |
Argh, gotta get out of the basement with these accuracy predictions! --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
you're being beaten by a man who went 25/25/25/25 today. --- xyzzy http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg |
darn you ed bellis --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
MGS4>Brawl --- PNess SSBB FC - 2835-9755-3785 Vlado..thank god...another voice of sanity in this madhouse... - RealMarchhare |
Vote for FFX --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
