GameFAQs Contests


Best Game Ever 2 Contest Analysis Crew (Part Three)

transients | Posted 5/14/2009 10:26:00 PM | message detail | filter | #401
and I'm looking forward to this board vote. three really strong early games, especially SMRPG, vs. FF7's early vote. it's backwards enough that FF7 probably kicks ass early and often.
Lopen | Posted 5/14/2009 10:26:10 PM | message detail | filter | #402
Hey tranny I only did whole percents to complete the tribute. I was stealing your gimmick, after all, might as well go the whole nine yards!
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/14/2009 10:28:37 PM | message detail | filter | #403
transience, don't ignore my question from a few posts ago in this topic.
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/14/2009 11:13:30 PM | message detail | filter | #404
Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup

Welp, appears as though I just about called this one correctly- FF6 is coming quite close to matching its R1 percentage, but even so no one seems to be at all impressed. Unfortunately I was way off on Zelda. And MK2. And Sonic. Bah! Uhh, not much else to say about that result (except that this was way too close to the dreaded 40/30/20/10 split for my taste).

Tonight ought to be much more entertaining. We get to see the 2nd(!) strongest game on the site in action again, which is always fun, and better yet it got about the perfect draw here so the sky's the limit. Sure these are three very strong games, but Square always brings its A game against good Nintendo competition so I don't think 50 is entirely out of the question. Would be extremely impressive though, especially since it will be somewhat hampered by that less-than-iconic (but more-than-hilarious!) match pic.

The bottom three is where the real interest lies for this one... is MRPG ruined by a superior role playing choice? Does two "Mario" choices spell massive LFF? Will the N64 options bring each other down, considering they were the holy grail of 4 player multi for three straight years? Call me biased, but I think Goldeneye redeems itself by scoring an easier than expected win over the other two options. It nailed a very strong/iconic match pic that plays to its multi strengths, and something just felt fishy about that first round to me... got to imagine it blows by MRPG much more easily this time, especially considering how that game is in about the worst position imaginable (I've always contended that Mario RPG would be a beast if matched against non-Square and non-Mario/Zelda opponents, but this time it has no such luck). As for MK64, ehhh, I still think it's the strongest Kart, but GE is so far ahead of Super Metroid that it shouldn't be a major concern.

And that's why I'm going to say

Final Fantasy VII - 47.45%
GoldenEye 007 - 21.51%
Mario Kart 64 - 17.02%
Super Mario RPG - 14.02%

Go GE!

The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/14/2009 11:27:21 PM | message detail | filter | #405
Well, at least I didn't go for the upset here.
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/14/2009 11:30:32 PM | message detail | filter | #406
Hohoho, the superior game sporting a vicious 4 player multi SFF beatdown. What a glorious sight!

The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/14/2009 11:47:26 PM | message detail | filter | #407
It just means Mario Kart 64 gets more lightning bolts! Just you wait!
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/15/2009 1:09:33 AM | message detail | delete | filter | #408
Final Fantasy III (VI)----------------------------------37.32% 42009
The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening----------31.14% 35056
Sonic the Hedgehog 2-------------------------------19.18% 21587
Mortal Kombat II---------------------------------------12.37% 13923
TOTAL VOTES------------------------------------------------112575

Matches Completely Correct - 23
Matches Partially Correct - 15
Matches Completely Wrong - 0

What Happened - "Just as Planned" FF6 takes first easy, with Link's Awakening safely locked in second.

Why it Happened - It was pretty clear that all the games here are on different levels. MK2 does look a bit bad here, but whatever.

What Will Happen - LttP/SM/FF6/LA, looks like FF6 lucked out next round, because with LA putting up 45%+ on FF6 for 2 rounds now, it's looking pretty legit.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Point for all

Tran - 24
Guest - 23
HM - 23
Moltar - 20
Ed - 18
Leon - 18
Lopen - 17

Crew Accuracy Challenge - HM gets the point for FF6, Ed gets the point for LA and MK2, Moltar, HM and Tran get points for Sonic 2

HM - 39
Moltar - 37
Tran - 27
Ed - 19
Guest (Luster, Zylo (3), HaRR, Kleenex (2), Soul, TRT, KP (3), Chaotic, Ngamer, GfK, Trout, BDawg (2), Luis) - 19
Leon - 17
Lopen - 17
Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 39 - Bracket: FF7 > GE - Vote: Goldeneye (119/176)
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/15/2009 3:37:31 AM | message detail | filter | #409
Moltar, HM and Tran get points for Sonic 2

Golly, what a scoring system!

The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
The Mana Sword | Posted 5/15/2009 8:03:58 AM | message detail | filter | #410
whoops ff7
This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/15/2009 10:34:46 AM | message detail | delete | filter | #411

From: Ngamer64 | #409
Moltar, HM and Tran get points for Sonic 2

Golly, what a scoring system!

Screw dealing with decimals and fractions!
Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 39 - Bracket: FF7 > GE - Vote: Goldeneye (119/176)
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/15/2009 11:39:45 AM | message detail | filter | #412
All right, I'm passing Ed back up today at least.
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/15/2009 8:38:56 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #413
Division 4: Round 2 - Match 40 – Super Mario 64 vs. Castlevania: Symphony of the Night vs. Chrono Trigger vs. Super Mario World 2: Yoshi’s Island

Moltar’s Analysis

Super Mario 64
Round 1 - 45.44% vs. Symphony of the Night, Resident Evil and Kirby Super Star

Many doubted it, but it looked good here

Symphony of the Night
Round 1 - 22.91% vs. Super Mario 64, Resident Evil and Kirby Super Star

SotN has definitely fallen off over the years, a surprise to no one

Chrono Trigger
Round 1 - 56.36% vs. Yoshi’s Island, Earthbound and Lufia II

I was surprised to see CT still had it

Yoshi’s Island
Round 1 - 23.81% vs. Chrono Trigger, Earthbound and Lufia II

Ouch YI, had an opportunity to shine and instead you can’t even get a quarter of the vote

Hey if you thought the last match was boring well look at this one here. Even yesterday had Mario RPG > Mario Kart, which many didn’t see coming. Today? This should be totally locked in. I have CT > SM64 in my bracket, because they are easily the two strongest games here.

Well Round 1 passed, and SM64 looks great. It should put up pretty good numbers on CT, which looks like it hasn’t lost a step since 2004. Meanwhile, both SotN and SMW2 disappointed last round and take the obvious 3rd and 4th respectively. Yoshi’s Island also will get crushed with SM64 here.

So yeah let’s just get past this and get to the ****storm next match.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: CT > SM64

Moltar’s Prediction is: CT: 43% - SM64: 32% - SotN: 16% - Yoshi’s Island: 9%

Lopen’s Analysis

This match is important for only one reason: To establish just how much the anti-establishment vote affects Mario. I'm gonna go with “not much at all” but there is a possibility the voters on this site will be just as ENRAGED by seeing two Mario games as they will by seeing two FF games. In which case, you wouldn't be too crazy to call this one in favor of SotN.

I'm not thinkin that happens, though. Mario should avoid the hate, and while Yoshi's Island will hurt it some, it's going to be crushed 64 fold. Hard for SotN to capitalize on that, seeing as it was doubled last round. It should eliminate any fear Chrono Trigger might have in its heart here, though. (Don't think it necessarily should, either)

Lopen's prediction:
Chrono Trigger – 37.02%
Super Mario 64 – 29.93%
Symphony of the Night – 24.01%
Censor Bypass's Island – 9.04%

Transience’s Analysis

CT first. Mario 64 second. Everything else way behind. There's my analysis.

Instead, here's my tribute to Lopen:

Mario 3, World,
RPG, Yoshi's Island
it's 64's turn

CT kills them all
Crono sees Mario games
gets huge erection

Cyclone! Slash! Spincut!
Crono molests Mario
Mario death song

Mario runs off
speechless, not even "itsa me!"
hides in small corner

CT fanfare plays
Gato awards fifteen points
waits for FF7

transience's prediction:

Chrono Trigger - 44.845894734%
Mario 64 - 31.573783468%
Castlevania: Symphony of the Night - 16.4568568643%
Yoshi's Island - 7.1234649337%
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/15/2009 8:41:31 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #414
Leonhart’s Analysis

Super Mario 64: At this point, it seems like the main Mario series can do no wrong. Mario 1, Mario 3, and Mario World all put up big numbers against legitimate competition, and now it’s Mario 64’s turn to prove it can do the same. It put up 45% against three decent games, but now Chrono Trigger awaits. No Mario game has yet to beat Chrono Trigger, so don’t expect that to change here, especially with whatever resistance Yoshi’s Island puts up against Mario 64 here. Still, it should take second place without any trouble. It nearly doubled up SOTN last round, and I don’t expect Yoshi’s Island to suddenly turn that into a loss.

Castlevania: Symphony of the Night: I think everything started going right for me with the Crew the moment I started picking against my bracket! I have CT > SOTN here, so more success is guaranteed! SOTN got embarrassed last round by Mario 64, and it probably will again. It should get third place easily because Yoshi’s Island’s gonna get the stuffing beat out of it, but that’s all it’s gonna get.

Chrono Trigger: Chrono Trigger put up a great performance last round, getting 56% of the vote and 70% on Yoshi’s Island. Next up on the Mario game hit list: Super Mario 64. Resistance is futile, especially as Battle with Magus, World Revolution, and Frog’s Theme blare for 24 hours…at the same time! Now bring on the next game from the series!

Super Mario World 2: Yoshi’s Island: Hey, ever seen a Mario game get single digits? I’m guessing Yoshi’s Island probably does here with Mario 64 in the same match. It could barely manage 20% when it was the second strongest game in the poll. How bad is it gonna get when it’s the weakest game in the poll?

Leonhart’s Vote: Chrono Trigger’s got this!

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Super Mario 64 – 31.04%
Symphony of the Night – 18.80%
Chrono Trigger – 42.03%
Yoshi’s Island – 8.12%

Guest’s Analysis - GrapefruitKing

Now here's as match that should go as expected... right? .....Right?

Now, Chrono Trigger and Mario 64 both outrageously dominated their polls, while SotN and Yoshi's Island are contenders for most disappointing performances of Round 1. Or maybe my expectations for them were too high. Oh well.

So of course CT takes first here, and I would still take it comfortably over M64 if Yoshi's Island wasn't in there. Unless YI is even weaker than I think, 56% in that four-pack is still really good, even from a top-tier game. I think Trigger can shoot for over 40% despite this being a way stronger four-pack. I feel like YI won't take as much damage from the split with M64 as, say, FF and FF4, but it still probably won't come close to 15%. SotN, despite sticking out a bit, will probably come up with a pretty sad performance. All part of the plan, though.

The game I'm the most curious about here is Mario 64. It's pretty hard to gauge what will happen to it. It could crash and burn, it could break 35%, who the hell knows.

And.. uh.. that's it, I've already said way too much about a match in which every position is a lock.

GrapefruitKing's surprisingly accurate prediction
Super Mario 64 - 33.87%
Castlevania: Symphony of the Night - 14.95%
Chrono Trigger - 41.38%
Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island - 9.80%

Crew Consensus: CT > SM64 yawn
Ed Bellis | Posted 5/15/2009 9:25:05 PM | message detail | filter | #415
Match 39

This match sucks. CT gets first, SM64 gets second, SOTN gets third and Yoshi’s Island cums in my rear. I cannot fathom anything else happening. Yawn.

Prediction: Yawn
Super Mario 64 with 26.55%
Castlevania: Symphony of the Night with 19.32%
Chrono Trigger with 41.00%
Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island with 13.13%

ed status: i'll lose to FASTFALCON on my own time
ZFS | Posted 5/15/2009 10:07:46 PM | message detail | filter | #416
Whoops, sorry about that -- had a lot going on tonight. Let's see...

Today's match is another easy one -- Chrono Trigger in first, Mario 64 in second. There's no much of a chance for any other outcome here. It'll be fun to see Trigger go up against some real competition early on, so we can see if it still stacks up to how it performed in round 1, but other than that it's pretty standard fare. SOTN and Yoshi's Island are just far too outclassed here, and in YI's case it's going to be on the receiving end of SFF beating.

Chrono Trigger -- 45%
Super Mario 64 -- 30%
Symphony of the Night -- 16%
Yoshi's Island -- 10%

Bracket: Chrono Trigger > Super Mario 64
Favorites: Chrono Trigger > Symphony of the Night

a metal slime appears
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/15/2009 10:17:34 PM | message detail | filter | #417
I wouldn't even vote for any Mario game over Chrono Trigger, to be honest.
transience | Posted 5/15/2009 11:26:38 PM | message detail | filter | #418
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/15/2009 11:36:20 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #419
boring match alert
Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 40 - Bracket: CT > SM64 - Vote: SM64 (127/184)
th3l3fty | Posted 5/15/2009 11:41:44 PM | message detail | filter | #420
so much for the "obvious result"
thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/16/2009 12:15:26 AM | message detail | filter | #421
CRAP, got too caught up in work tonight and didn't even think of the match until 30 seconds to midnight. Kind of a lame writeup as a result, but I trust you guys not to commit suicide over it.

Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup

Whooo, now THAT'S more like it! GE totally redeems itself and once again has people talking it up as a Top Ten game on this site (well... Top 15 at least), while Mario RPG makes GE's R1 look better by showing that it's a legit upper midcarder after all. As for MK64, ouch. Alright, so it was ugly, but I think you've got to chalk that up to being the lesser Mario option plus getting 4way multiplayer SFFed by Goldeneye- I still stand by MK64 being a serious threat (when it can avoid Nintendo) and the strongest of the Karts. As for FF7, ehhhh, I don't know what to say. 47% is solid against such good competition, but there's no way Ocarina would have been held under 50 given the same kind of circumstances. Luckily I'll get a chance to put my predition where my mouth is in just a couple days here (though I think OoT's at a disadvantage since SC is going to pull a more independent non-Squintendo percentage in that one). Should be fun to watch!

As far as tonight goes, not sure if there will be anything too exciting to keep an eye on. Really wish we could have seen Mario 64 vs Chrono Trigger in a fair fight; would have been an excellent chance to test M64 vs SMW and also to see how far CT has fallen relative to Mario in the past five years. Instead Yoshi's Island is there to mess everything up, and then next round gets even worse thanks to FF7 and GE showing up to have a major impact on both games (though how huge and in what direction we still have no clue).

A few weeks back people were trying to inject some kind of interest into this one by suggesting that Castlevania could challenge Mario 64 thanks to the help YI would be providing, but come on now, let's not get silly. Yoshi's in a horrible position- bigger, more popular Mario on one side and bigger, more popular SNES game on the other. The game is going to get crunched to such a tiny percentage that I can't see it destroying 64 to that extent, especially not after its frankly awful showing in R1. SotN's still a decent game and ought to pull a respectable percentage, but I'm envisioning healthy gaps between all 4 entries here, to the point where no position will ever be in doubt.

On the plus side... Touch Fuzzy, Get Dizzy, whoo! Was hoping we'd see that level last round, glad to see it pop up here. Also at first I thought the guy on the right in the SotN pic was Captain Falcon, so maybe it will overperform by 10% like in that Diddy Kong match. Final percentage:

Chrono Trigger - 41%
Super Mario 64 - 33%
Castlevania: Symphony of the Night - 17%
Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island - 9%

Okay, so I made that up in like 2 seconds when I realized it was 11:59 and I didn't have an Oracle pick in yet. BUT, it's pretty close to the 40/30/20/10 split I would have tried for if given more time to think, so I like it!

The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
Lopen | Posted 5/16/2009 12:20:10 AM | message detail | filter | #422
Haha yesss tranny awesome
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/16/2009 12:27:33 AM | message detail | filter | #423
1. Excellent work with the decimals tranny- keep up the good work!

2. Hahahaha! Some gems from the writeups three weeks ago: "I have no idea why people have so much faith in Mario 64." "Mario 64- the game that has never failed to disappoint." "Mario 64's easily the most overrated game in this bracket."

Whoops indeed!

The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
transience | Posted 5/16/2009 12:28:32 AM | message detail | filter | #424
hey, I stand by my statement that it had never failed to disappoint! it's getting total redemption here. top 10 game in the house.
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/16/2009 12:49:27 AM | message detail | delete | filter | #425
GoldenEye 007--------23.33% 27626
Super Mario RPG----17.03% 20169
Final Fantasy VII------47.3% 56012
Mario Kart 64---------12.35% 14622
TOTAL VOTES-----------------118429

Matches Completely Correct - 24
Matches Partially Correct - 15
Matches Completely Wrong - 0

What Happened - FF7 beats Goldeneye as expected. However, Mario RPG ends up being the stronger Mario game here, to most people's surprise.

Why it Happened - The Mario games were bound to suffer here, but Mario RPG, if it didn't prove it last round, looks to be very legit. It easily beat down Mario Kart. Meanwhile, Goldeneye also looks good here only getting doubled by FF7.

What Will Happen - Goldeneye may hold up pretty well in Round 3 if it can do this with 2 Nintendo games here.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Point for all except Ed

Tran - 25
Guest - 24
HM - 24
Moltar - 21
Leon - 19
Lopen - 18
Ed - 18

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Leon gets the point for FF7, Moltar and Lopen get points for GE, Lopen gets the point for MK64 and Ed gets the point for SMRPG

HM - 39
Moltar - 38
Tran - 27
Ed - 20
Lopen - 19
Guest (Luster, Zylo (3), HaRR, Kleenex (2), Soul, TRT, KP (3), Chaotic, Ngamer, GfK, Trout, BDawg (2), Luis) - 19
Leon - 18
Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 40 - Bracket: CT > SM64 - Vote: SM64 (127/184)
Lopen | Posted 5/16/2009 12:58:15 AM | message detail | filter | #426
Moltar and Lopen get points for GE,

Bah gawd I've sold mah soullll
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 9:07:13 AM | message detail | filter | #427
Crew embarrassed

KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 9:11:31 AM | message detail | filter | #428
Bah gawd, the highest SM64 pick was 33.87%? And it was the Guest?

Awesome match confirmed!

Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/16/2009 10:30:42 AM | message detail | delete | filter | #429
I have CT > SM64 in my bracket, because they are easily the two strongest games here.

Well Round 1 passed, and SM64 looks great. It should put up pretty good numbers on CT, which looks like it hasn’t lost a step since 2004

Clearly I worded my analysis like this because I realized the high upset potential.

Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 40 - Bracket: CT > SM64 - Vote: SM64 (127/184)
Ed Bellis | Posted 5/16/2009 11:02:36 AM | message detail | filter | #430
ed status: Maybe the chef was Darkseid. You don't mess with Darkseid. -MoogleKupo141
GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/16/2009 12:45:54 PM | message detail | filter | #431
woo! go go Guest! (me)
Highest Mario 64 prediction and lowest SotN? I'm surprised. Too bad I didn't go with that for my oracle
Today's prediction: Trigger 42.18% - Mario 64 32.92% - Alucard's Plan 15.05% - Yoshi's Island 9.85%
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/16/2009 3:03:34 PM | message detail | filter | #432
To continue the backtracking combo... what I MEANT to say in my writeup was that I expected CT/Mario 64 to be a close match, and it only wasn't going to be neck and neck due to Yoshi stealing 8-9% almost exclusively from Mario.

Which to be fair was a much more sensible proposition than what is actually happening.

The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 3:07:49 PM | message detail | filter | #433
How does it feel to get those tainted points, Lopen? You've passed me now, but was it worth it?

LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 3:24:31 PM | message detail | filter | #434
And so much for easy points today, heh.

Hopefully tomorrow is easy points!
transience | Posted 5/16/2009 4:38:22 PM | message detail | filter | #435
I wonder if Yoshi's Island is even hurting Mario 64 here. maybe it's hurting CT more for being on the SNES.

god knows, this is one hell of a beatdown.
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/16/2009 8:26:36 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #436
Division 5: Round 2 - Match 41 – Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow vs. The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask vs. Metal Gear Solid vs. Pokemon Gold/Silver

Moltar’s Analysis

Pokemon R/B/Y
Round 1 - 50.68% vs. Majora’s Mask, Perfect Dark and Banjo-Kazooie

what the f…

Majora’s Mask
Round 1 - 28.86% vs. Pokemon R/B/Y, Perfect Dark and Banjo-Kazooie

Best Zelda letting me down big time.

Metal Gear Solid
Round 1 - 37.08% vs. Pokemon G/S, Final Fantasy Tactics and Deus Ex

Hard to see how good/bad this performance was…

Pokemon G/S
Round 1 - 32.45% vs. Metal Gear Solid, Final Fantasy Tactics and Deus Ex

…because who knows how strong Pokemon G/S really is?

my pokemonz let me show you them. I have MGS > Zelda: MM in my bracket. I expected RBY to be in this match, but also not be as strong as the other two games. I didn’t expect GS to be here, but FFT instead. I’ve been high on MGS, and I figured it would easily be the strongest game here, with MM being the next strongest.

Yeah, then one of the biggest shocks of Round 1 happened from Pokemon. RBY goes and puts up 50% on Majora’s Mask, Perfect Dark and Banjo, and then 24 hours later, GS gets 47% on MGS. Now that those performances have had time to settle in, and now that we’ve seen some other matches, this looks to be a bit easier to call.

The Rundown - Starring The “Dwayne Johnson” Rock

Pokemon RBY
+ Most likely the strongest game here and potentially a Top 10 game
+ 50% in Round 1, including 64% on Majora’s Mask
- 50% on an all Nintendo pack with 3 N64 games, including an untested Majora’s Mask
- Another Pokemon game here

Majora’s Mask
+ Now the sole N64 game in the pack
- Weakest game here
- We’ve seen that Zelda isn’t unbeatable and have faltered

Metal Gear Solid
+ Sole non-Nintendo game
+ Very strong, could be as high as Top 15 game.
- Let GS get 47% on it last round

Pokemon GS
+ 47% on MGS
+ Shows it could be as high as Top 15/20.
- Was the sole Nintendo game last time
- Has to deal with the stronger Pokemon game

I think the most important thing here is that MGS is not just a strong game, but that it’s also it stands out in a sea of Nintendo games. It probably loses to RBY 1v1, but it shouldn’t be much weaker than it indirectly and RBY has to deal with an anchor called GS.

The split between RBY and GS is the big question here. This isn’t like the SM64/SMW2 split, where SM64 is already leagues stronger than SMW2. This is more like the FF1/FF4 split, with the two games being close in strength already (not as close as FF1/FF4 but close enough). However, one big difference here is that FF1 doesn’t have a real big fanbase on its own, and against another FF game with a fanbase, it got killed. GS does have a fanbase, which should prevent it from suffering a FF1-style beatdown. Still, how big is the split between the two games, and will Pokemon fans abandon GS to vote for RBY?

Who knows now. The fact is that RBY would have to kill GS in order to end up above MGS, and I don’t see the difference between the two games plus SFF being that severe. RBY should be safe for at least second though. Majora’s Mask has an outside shot, but it’s not looking good. It would have to reverse that 64-36 result by keeping everything from last round AND RBY/GS would have to split evenly AND also resist SFF from Pokemon. Not happening.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: MGS > Zelda: MM

Moltar’s Prediction is: MGS: 36% - Pokemon RBY: 30% - Zelda: MM: 19% - Pokemon GS: 15%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

So we're finally back to Pokemon. I'm already tired of talking about what Pokemon is and isn't going to do, but we'll be down to only one after this match, so it shouldn't be too bad. Gotta get past this!
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/16/2009 8:26:53 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #437
After Mario 64's big win over Chrono Trigger yesterday, I think it's safe to say that RBY isn't going to have much to worry about here as far as advancing is concerned. There was some rumbling beforehand about the possibility of Majora's Mask managing to pull out a win here because of the ZELDA fanbase not being pushed below a certain percentage -- and it was a decent argument -- but round 2 has all but eliminated any chance of that. I could have seen it happening before, but not now.

That means the bigger thing to watch in this match is MGS vs. RBY. Some believe Pokemon's got a shot to take first outright, despite two other Nintendo games occupying a spot here, one of which is another Pokemon game, but I'm not buying into it. The only way I could see it happening is if RBY actually is a top 10 game like it's being hyped, GS gets brutalized by SFF, and MGS ends up being a 'bomb' relative to its expectations. Putting it like that, it doesn't sound all that impossible -- but there's still Zelda to worry about.

Majora's Mask should do significantly better on RBY this round than it did last. Not because it'll be stronger this time, but rather, with there being less percentage to go around MM should be able to tap into that Zelda fanbase enough to keep it from getting pushed under 20%. Its performance will come almost entirely at the expense of RBY, who will probably look worse than it really is. It'd make sense, though -- three Nintendo games vying for votes from the same fanbase, something's going to happen here. Plus, from what I understand, GS is the 'hardcore' game of choice between the two Pokemons. That should be enough to avoid getting completely destroyed.

Then again, who knows. I'm not in touch with Pokemon at all, and I can't say I know how this is going to go since it's outdone my expectations every time this contest (except for D/P). We'll see what happens here, hopefully MGS wrecks this pack like it should!

Metal Gear Solid -- 40%
Pokemon RBY -- 26%
Majora's Mask -- 20%
Pokemon GS -- 16%

Bracket: Metal Gear Solid > Final Fantasy Tactics
Favorites: Metal Gear Solid > Majora's Mask

Lopen’s Analysis

Alright. Gonna be brief cause I don't got much time. My bracket has RBY > MGS here cause I think Pokemanz RBY is a really strong game. And uhhh... well, R1 certainly implied that. And after seeing today's match I'm pretty sure Pokemanz RBY can withstand the LFF from GS even though I didn't expect it to be here. GS should be destroyed, here. Even some people who like GS more (I'm one of these people) will probably vote RBY over it out of respect. A split just as bad as Yoshi's Island vs SM64 could very well happen here, especially with the lopsided pictures the two games have. I don't think it'll be quite that bad, but it should be lopsided enough for RBY to get the job done.

Pokemanz RBY is a beast. Top 10 game you bet. Seeing as GS almost beat MGS anyway, RBY shouldn't have too many problems taking first here.

Lopen's prediction:
Pokemanz RBY - 35.03%
Metal Gear!?! - 33.10%
Majora's Mask - 18.03%
Pokemanz GS - 13.84%

Transience’s Analysis

Well, Mario has dominated the first half of this round, just like he did in round 1. Now it's Pokemon's turn to see if it can keep up the wild performances from round 1.

Unlike round 1, this match has every reason to undervalue Pokemon. The two strong Pokemon games are in the same match. The match picture looks the exact same. There's going to be five Pokemon titles in the poll. I expect both of them to underperform a la how FF1 and FF4 did. Metal Gear Solid should benefit from this hugely.
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/16/2009 8:27:43 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #438
But given how Gold/Silver did against MGS in round 1, I have to believe that the superior Red/Blue/Yellow is actually stronger than it. I'd expect RBY to beat MGS if there wasn't another Pokemon title, but as it is, MGS has to be the easy favourite. I think RBY vs. GS will be about a 70/30 split in RBY's favour. If RBY makes it close despite GS in the poll, it'll be damn impressive. If it wins, I like it to move on next round despite OOT.

The last game in this poll is Majora's Mask, and it scares me a little bit. If we see a massive split between the Pokemon games, we could see Majora's Mask benefit. I wouldn't expect this to happen if it was just some game, but I trust the Zelda faithful to back their game. It's really unlikely though and RBY beat it the hell down in round 1, so I don't see too much of a reason for it to reverse its fate. But I'm always skeptical of fanbase splits and the weird things that happen when they come up.

Anyway, I have no real point here because I don't have much of an idea what happens here. Pokemon got so shafted in this bracket placement.

five Pokemon games
Solid Snake used fanbase split!
super effective!

transience's prediction:

Metal Gear Solid - 39%
Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow - 31%
Zelda: Majora's Mask - 17%
Pokemon Gold/Silver - 13%

Leonhart’s Analysis

Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow: Are you ready for the Pokemon hype train to start up again? I know I’m not! Normally, this would be a good opportunity to see how the game stacks up against a classic game like Metal Gear Solid, but these are not ideal circumstances for R/B/Y. You see, it’s got to contend with another Pokemon game here in Gold/Silver, in addition to bringing Majora’s Mask along for the ride. We’ve already seen Super Mario World take advantage of a split between two games in the same series, and while R/B/Y should beat down G/S worse than FFIV beat down FFI, Super Mario World won by a large enough margin to make me think R/B/Y can’t make that up, especially with a third Nintendo game. FFIV and Mario World aren’t that far apart, and chances are that MGS and R/B/Y aren’t either. It should probably still advance here because I don’t think Majora’s Mask is quite independent enough to benefit, and it got whipped by so much last round that I don’t really think it deserves any consideration.

The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask: Hey, I’m picking against my bracket yet again! This is becoming a recurring trend! I have MGS > MM here, and you can pretty much throw that one in the trash bin now. It should do better relative to R/B/Y than it did last round because it won’t be affected by Gold/Silver’s presence quite as much, but I think it will be affected to the point that I don’t consider it a serious contender to place. Hey, that’d be great if it did because we could watch Ocarina of Time pulverize this thing (It got 76% on Mario 64, so how bad do you think it hammers Majora’s Mask?) and it’d make FFVIII’s chances of getting into round 4 (assuming it survives tomorrow, that is)! Go, Majora’s Mask, go!

Metal Gear Solid: Yeah, Metal Gear Solid didn’t look that great last round, losing ASV outright to G/S and barely scoring 53% in a direct matchup, but it lucked out here. It’s the lone PSX gem in a field of Nintendo games. Basically, if you don’t want to vote for Nintendo, Metal Gear Solid’s your only option. We already saw Super Mario World take advantage of that (If you didn’t want to vote for Final Fantasy, then all you had was Super Mario World because who votes for Mega Man 3?), so expect MGS to do the same here. The game’s guaranteed to advance one way or the other because SFF’d G/S and LFF’d MM aren’t doing it, but if R/B/Y somehow still manages to beat it, you can go ahead and forget about it advancing next round. Watching MGS drop like a lead balloon with the ASV ought to be fun though!
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/16/2009 8:28:19 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #439
Pokemon Gold/Silver: Yeah, you can go ahead and chalk G/S up for last place here. The big question is how well it resists the SFF hammer that R/B/Y will bring. FFIV and FFI are probably nearly identical in strength, and FFIV doubled it. I think R/B/Y is a clear notch above G/S, and it’s certainly more favored, so expect it to do much worse than that here. Single digits are very possible here, I think.

Leonhart’s Vote: Metal Gear?!

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow – 29.58%
Majora’s Mask – 20.20%
Metal Gear Solid – 39.14%
Pokemon Gold/Silver – 11.08%

Ed Bellis’s Analysis

This match is a cluster****. We’ve got RBY trying to act like a top 5 game in Round One, Majora’s Mask contending with triple N64 SFF, MGS coming off of the biggest high its series will likely ever have, and Pokemon GS just… being generally strong.

So what can we assume here? We can assume that GS will not place, as RBY demonstrated that it is significantly stronger and given how similar the games are, we will likely see a hideous degree of overlap, to GS’s detriment.

The battle thus goes between RBY, MM, and MGS. (woo acronyms~). RBY probably has first locked up with how powerful it seemed in R1… but it wouldn’t surprise me to see it falter a bit here, to Majora’s Mask of all things. Remember, there were three other N64 games in that poll, and Pokemon stood out a great deal. Without them there, Majora’s Mask might boost a tad. It won’t be enough to beat RBY, since the latter will be leeching all its votes from GS, but it should be sufficient to get second place.

Metal Gear Solid does have the distinction of being the only non-Nintendo game in the poll, but that doesn’t seem to matter terribly much in four-ways (see: Alucard/Liquid/Ness/Zidane, among other examples). I think it’s got third locked up here.

Prediction: Wild SURVEILLANCE CAMERA appeared
Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow with 41.94%
The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask with 25.88%
Metal Gear Solid with 22.16%
Pokemon Gold/Silver with 10.02%

Guest’s Analysis - Karma Hunter

Okay, I'm currently sitting on the beach paying $13.95 a day for internet, so I'll try to be brief.

Basically, in the past round and a half, we've got about twenty different candidates (some might even argue locks) that have emerged for the coveted Top Ten games on this site. The Super Six (Seven, until FFVI decided to disqualify itself) are just about set in stone, so that leaves all of four spots open for the illustrious position. With that, even RBY's most significant detractors have seen fit to grant it a spot among those four until proven otherwise.

Tonight, I feel we will see the harbinger of that proof. I come here not to praise Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, but to bury it.

It's generally accepted by all but the biggest Pokefreaks that MGS is the favorite for this match - RBY is saddled with an entity that many would argue is one of the only that can split its fanbase unfavorably, and that very entity just got a pretty notable remake just announced. There's no way Pokemon Gold/Silver is going to beat RBY, but any votes that it saps is only going to hurt Pokemon country that much more. Add in that it's the only non-Nintendo entity in the match, and you'd have to have PokeFEAR or be drinking the Pokekool-aid to be putting money on RBY tonight.
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/16/2009 8:28:53 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #440
Of course, naysayers (rightly) argue that leaves out too much. RBY didn't just win a match it was supposed to lose, it crushed it with over 50% of the vote (and along those lines, no matter what happens nothing would shock me more than Majora's Mask actually advancing). Pokemon GS may have lost to MGS, but it did so with a hefty 47% or so of the vote, and the general line of thought is that RBY is well above its little brother in terms of vote-drawing power. Even Diamond/Pearl put up a good percentage on (an otherwise disappointing) Super Mario Galaxy. Pokemon's stock is higher than ever, and its this kind of stock that wins games matches when all the metrics are working against them. MGS has been looking good - but not great - all contest.

But that doesn't tell the whole story, I think. We just saw Super Mario World increase by 7% between rounds despite two stronger entities (FFIV >>> Battletoads... and FF1, for that matter; MM3 >>> PoP) being introduced. SFF only explains this phenomenon by so much, in my estimation - the other half of the puzzle involves that elusive idea known as STF - Sore Thumb Factor. It worked against Metal Gear Solid last round, with a bright and happy Nintendo picture amid two mature PSX titles and a mature PC game. This time, we're sure to have an overload of cutesyness and feel-good atmosphere, with the lone exception of a brooding stealth operative who's about to snap all their necks. I've pegged MGS for a Top Ten game, and I'm thinking it gives a performance to validate that thinking tonight.

Bottom line: I say MGS wins (surprise, surprise, check someone else's writeup if you're gunning for the upset). But by how much?

Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow 30%
The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 17%
Metal Gear Solid 40%
Pokemon Gold/Silver 13%

Enough to make people really start anticipating Round 3.

Crew Consensus: MGS > RBY is the majority pick, with RBY > MGS and RBY > Majora’s Mask also represented.
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 8:32:22 PM | message detail | filter | #441
KP’s NGamer-esque Unofficial Analysis

Because you didn’t think a silly little thing like not being the Guest was going to prevent me from making an analysis for this match, did you?

Until Mario decided to open a can of whoop-ass, Pokemon looked like the #1 star of the contest. RBY got over 50% against MM, Perfect Dark, and Banjo Kazooie. GS got 47% on Metal Gear Solid. DP came dangerously close to Super Mario Galaxy. This has been probably the most anticipated match of Round 2, simply because there’s so many question marks into it. Can RBY beat MGS? Can MM somehow overcoming a 20% deficit and get 2nd? Will GS hold up or be SFFd into the ground? Will something WILD AND WACKY happen?

First, let’s look at Majora’s Mask. Its chances of advancing are pretty awful. It needs for RBY not to SFF GS, for RBY and GS to have a horrible split, for them to have a horrible split with MM having no overlap with them, and for it not to just get Last Place Factor’d like we’ve been seeing for the past few days.

Hint: the last thing happens. Even if MM got a perfect storm, and everything else on the list happened…this isn’t MM’s match, and the voters know it. Much like SotN got stomped horribly today because everyone knew the match was Chrono Trigger vs. Super Mario 64, MM probably looks pretty bad today, worse than it actually is.

Same goes for GS. It could end up anywhere from being SFFd 80-20 by RBY to avoiding a doubling, but either way it’s gonna look like ass compared to how it did in Round 1. Personally, I think the difference ends up being around 70-30. Normally I would say 65-35, but this isn’t GS’s match either. RBY is going to over perform against it because voters know RBY needs their help against MGS.

MGS should look great tonight. It’s the only non-Nintendo game in the poll, and is probably a Top 15 games regardless. But…

That’s still not enough to beat Red/Blue/Yellow, son. Is RBY going to have a tough split to deal with in GS (and a bit of overlap with MM)? Yes, it will. I say it wins anyway. People have tried to downplay RBY’s performance last round, but the fact remains that setting MM=WW puts RBY at being close to Super Smash Bros. Melee. But KP! MM is weaksauce and would get doubled by LoZ and is way weaker than even WW and bullcrap. There’s almost no reason to put MM anywhere below a little below WW, there’s almost no reason to believe RBY SFFd MM to any significant degree. RBY near-doubled a Zelda game and quadrupled Perfect Dark. MGS is probably Top 15, but RBY is probably Top 10.

Summary: RBY splits, still spanks MGS. No haiku, just truth!

Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow: 33%
The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask: 21%
Metal Gear Solid: 31%
Pokemon Gold/Silver: 15%

WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/16/2009 8:32:53 PM | message detail | filter | #442
GSC advancing confirmed
hey look i'm war and i'm stupid - WVI
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 8:37:04 PM | message detail | filter | #443
Oh what the Ed Bellis. You never cease to surprise me, man.

LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 8:40:19 PM | message detail | filter | #444
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 8:55:21 PM | message detail | filter | #445
This time, we're sure to have an overload of cutesyness and feel-good atmosphere, with the lone exception of a brooding stealth operative who's about to snap all their necks.

I don't know about you, but Majora's Mask is one of the darkest and most depressing games I've ever played.

LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 8:56:47 PM | message detail | filter | #446
I could only play the game for 15 minutes and stopped because I was so depressed.

darn that skull kid
th3l3fty | Posted 5/16/2009 8:57:40 PM | message detail | filter | #447
I have a strong urge to post Angry Moon ASCII right now
thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
transience | Posted 5/16/2009 9:50:48 PM | message detail | filter | #448
Ed Bellis'd
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/16/2009 10:58:14 PM | message detail | filter | #449
Writeup will be later tonight, busy with some stuff, but here's my pick ahead of time

Metal Gear Solid - 37.20%
Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow - 27.18%
The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - 22.36%
Pokemon Gold/Silver - 13.26%

The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 11:32:12 PM | message detail | filter | #450