GameFAQs Contests
Best Game Ever 2 Contest Analysis Crew (Part Three)
I feel like I shoulda taken Sonic. oh well. --- xyzzy "Actually, fire didn't make Sephiroth awesome. Sephiroth made fire awesome." -Karma Hunter |
Kinda starting to feel that way, but at least Bellis will be the only one to get a point if Sonic does advance! --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
it's not like SF2 is super independent of the Nintendo fanbase. SF2 is popular because of the SNES ports. --- xyzzy "Actually, fire didn't make Sephiroth awesome. Sephiroth made fire awesome." -Karma Hunter |
SFII to win because of Championship Edition confirmed --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
I'm backing Mario 3 > Sonic 1 for tomorrow's match. |
I'm surprised the crew took SFII over Sonic again. Sure it would make my bracket happy, but didn't they learn after last round? --- Oh, sorry, I got distracted by FastFalcon. http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=169 |
I pretty much flipped a coin. had no idea what would happen here. felt bad picking either. shoulda gone Monkey Island. --- xyzzy http://www.mistwalkercorp.com/en/_src/sc569/HNI_0022.jpg |
Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup Well sir, weird to think that Mario 1 is so close to Mario 3 indirectly (I'm sure it still gets crushed head to head), but after today's result there doesn't seem to be any way around it. NG is still a supreme chump, true, but nothing involving Zelda or Metroid is a pushover on this site and yet Mario pounded their heads in and never broke a sweat. If M1 holds down Z1 that far again next round, and then MM2 arrives to bring down the NES options just a tiny bit more, perhaps my surprise upset where Tetris is the independent entry could... alright alright, so I give up on that one! Speaking of ones I give up on, I'd been counting on SFII/Sonic 1 to be a tight battle directly, but that it would swing in Ryu's favor once the king of the Marios arrived to dish out the platformer beatdown. But uhh, yikes did SF ever get its head handed to it last round! And double yikes, did SF4 ever drop the ball! After those two results I was sure that everyone and their mother would have bailed on the Street Fighter series, yet I check the Crew picks and... EVERYBODY is betting against Sonic (well except for the guy in last place, but I'm not sure if I really count him anymore), whoa! I guess it makes some sense- Sonic has never failed to disappoint in the 4way setting once decent competition arrived, Ryu has already proven that this fanbase can make a run if given a favorable LFF path, and Mario 3 is a lock to eat up a huge percentage of the votes (especially after Mario 1 went above and beyond). But even with all that plus my bracket backing it, I'm not entirely sold. This is one that I'll have to decide based on the match pic. Let's see... Sonic gets his classic title screen, pretty good considering this exact look got the job done for him last time. But sweeeet, SFII tops it with the perfect super-nostalgic ingame screenshot! Ryu posing all cool after unleashing some kind of devastating combo on (probably) the second more popular character of the series... the only way it could be better would be if he had just unleashed a Hadouken. Alright, that's enough to win me over; I'll stick with my bracket here, but would be very surprised if this didn't end up being a close battle for 2nd place no matter who takes it! Super Mario Bros. 3 - 56.06% Street Fighter II - 18.49% Sonic the Hedgehog - 18.43% Secret of Monkey Island - 7.02% Hmm, I like it QUITE a bit. --- The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/ (thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either) |
How do you like it now? One Ed Bellis of an upset! --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
Suck it Pilgrim man SF2's comin to town! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I'm going to allow this! --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
Eh,
I still like it decently... sure Sonic's traditionally had the better
day vote and so I've got to still give it the edge, but I expect SF to
be much more competitive beyond the first three hours thanks to Monkey
Island limiting Sonic's advantage in Europe (very slightly) and Mario
snuffing out much of its morning vote/ASV. --- The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/ (thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either) |
Now step up, now step up Let's do this --- Oh, sorry, I got distracted by FastFalcon. http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=169 |
It doesn't really matter if Monkey Island grabs a few extra percent. Sonic's still gonna own SFII's face in the UK. --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
Super Mario Bros.-----46.19% 52590 Ninja Gaiden--------------6.25% 7114 The Legend of Zelda-38.22% 43517 Metroid-------------------9.35% 10643 TOTAL VOTES-----------------113864 Matches Completely Correct - 20 Matches Partially Correct - 14 Matches Completely Wrong - 0 What Happened - It's freakin' Mario > ZELDA. SMB almost does as well as SMB3 did 5 years ago on Zelda I. Why it Happened - SFF since both games have extremely high playrates. Voters just prefer SMB over Zelda 1. What Will Happen - More of the same next round. Crew Prediction Challenge - Go Crew! Tran - 21 Guest - 21 HM - 20 Moltar - 17 Leon - 16 Lopen - 15 Ed - 15 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Lopen gets the point for SMB, Ed gets the point for LoZ, Tran gets the point for Metroid, and Moltar, Ed and HM get the NG point. HM - 34 Moltar - 33 Tran - 23 Leon - 17 Guest (Luster, Zylo (3), HaRR, Kleenex (2), Soul, TRT, KP (3), Chaotic, Ngamer, GfK, Trout) - 16 Lopen - 16 Ed - 15 --- Moltar Status: complete global saturation Match 35 - Bracket: SMB3 > SF2 - Vote: Sonic (99/144) |
god DAMN you guys went high on Mario 3. and of course Guest goes .2% lower than me argh --- xyzzy http://www.mistwalkercorp.com/en/_src/sc569/HNI_0022.jpg |
Sonic's advantage in Europe (very slightly) and Mario snuffing out much of its morning vote/ASV. Honestly, if you look at the Geolocation results of Sonic's last match with Street Fighter II, you'll see that Sonic is only beastly in the UK (and Ireland too, but you can't view results for that). If you checked out the results for the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Finland, and Sweden, Sonic does at least several percent worse in those countries than the 44.41% it got in the entire world. Whenever a game/character does good or bad in Europe, it's mostly the UK to blame for that because the mainland European countries have slightly different gaming tastes than the UK. In that Sonic match, the UK contributed 42.34% of the European votes. With the UK contributing about 40-43% of the European votes, it's no wonder why they can heavily affect how a game/character does in Europe. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ! |
I
didn't really expect to be lowest on Mario. Looks like I'm high on
Sonic, too, although a winner is Bellis. At least for once Sonic came
through for the ol' bracket. And I guess Threepwood does have a
hardcore fanbase of 10k dudes. --- Should I start running now? |
Division 2: Round 2 - Match 36 – Super Mario World vs. Final Fantasy vs. Final Fantasy IV vs. Mega Man 3 Moltar’s Analysis Super Mario World Round 1 - 45.78% vs. Final Fantasy, Battletoads and Prince of Persia SMW puts up some good numbers in R1 Final Fantasy Round 1 - 36.76% vs. Super Mario World, Battletoads and Prince of Persia FF gets its revenge against Battletoads Final Fantasy IV Round 1 - 50.65% vs. Mega Man 3, River City Ransom and Crystalis Very good performance from FF4 Mega Man 3 Round 1 - 35.29% vs. Final Fantasy IV, River City Ransom and Crystalis MM3 looks okay here *We now interrupt this regularly scheduled analysis with more…nonsense.* Previously, Link and crew ran into the Captain of Squad 12, Balthier. His Squad, along with the combined forces of Squads 5 and 11, surrounded the crew. The crew decided that Link should head on to while the rest of them handled the Squads. A world united, Becomes divided, War starts without fail Now witness the tale Intermission… 7: Separated *On the road to Centro Midgar* Peach: We’re close to Centro Midgar. Yoshi: Yoshi! (Everyone, stay on your guard.) Mario: Yeah, we’re in enemy territory now. ???: That’s right, you are in our territory. However, it is you that is the enemy. Luigi: Who said that? Cecil: I am the Captain of Squad 4, Cecil Harvey. Rydia: Everyone, now! Squad-men: Yes, Lieutenant! *They surround the 4 Nintendo characters* Yoshi: Yoshi, Yoshi! (This is a lot of people) Fighter: Ha ha ha, well if it isn’t my old friends. Mario: You again! Fighter: Our Squad, along with Squads 2 and 4, were sent here to stop you. Cecil: So you can either turn around and leave, or challenge us and be defeated. Mario: Darn, we don’t have time for this. We need to get to Centro Midgar! Peach: Mario, you go on ahead. We’ll hold these guys off. Mario: Are you sure you can handle them? Yoshi: Yoshi! (Of course, we’ve got this.) Luigi: *hand-signs* Gaming Art - Final Smash! Negative Zone! *A sphere appears over everyone in the area.* Various squad members: They attacked! But I can’t move! What is this? Peach: Go Mario, now! Mario: Okay! *runs through the group of squad members and escapes* Fighter: No! Get back here! Yoshi: Yoshi, Yoshi! (Don’t worry about him, we’re your opponents now!) ~*To Be Continued*~ This is the beginning of something huge. This match will start a chain of events that will continue on until the finals. Here I have SMW > FF4 because SMW is stronger than both FF1 and FF4, and with them splitting, there would be no way for SMW to lose to them. I also believed MM3 would not be in SMW’s league. I took FF4 over FF1 because I believed fans of the FF series prefer 4 over 1, so the split would benefit it. Not much has changed after Round 1. SMW/FF went as expected pretty much, 55/45. FF4 did pretty well on MM3 too, and MM2 (in Round 2) and MMX both didn’t look bad. MM3 is going to get killed by Mario World here, so I don’t see it capitalizing on the FF games splitting. The big question here is the FF1/FF4 split. FF1 looks stronger because it gets those “series” votes, but FF4 has a legit fanbase. I don’t think FF1 crumbles here, but FF4 should take it. Of course with the way this contest is going FF or MM3 will win augh. Moltar’s Bracket Says: SMW > FFIV Moltar’s Prediction is: SMW: 37% - FFIV: 25% - FFI: 22% - MM3: 16% |
Heroic Mario’s Analysis Here it is -- my most anticipated match of the whole contest. I've been looking forward to this one from day one, partly because the big upset in my bracket is taking FFIV to the semifinals and partly because FFIV is one of all-time favorite games. It's by no means guaranteed a win here, or even in the next round should it pull it off today, but it's got a great shot in both cases, and I'd be surprised if it lost either one. This match all comes down to how SFF falls between the two Final Fantasys. Some think it'll be 50/50, some think it'll favor FFIV, and others think it'll go to the original. Me, I think it's going to favor FFIV pretty decisively. Final Fantasy has legit strength for sure, but to say a good chunk of its votes don't come from franchise voting is pretty silly. This isn't Mario 1 or Zelda 1 -- Final Fantasy doesn't have the same storied history with most people, a good chunk of 'em didn't even start playing until FFVII. That's not to discredit FF1 at all, but just to say that being the 'progenitor' probably doesn't hold as much weight with FF. Personally, I love the game, but it's not a top 5 game in the series for me. Even then, though, I still voted for it over SMW last round, but will be voting for FFIV this time around. I expect it to be the same for plenty of people. Final Fantasy IV should have a lot of advantages going its way, too. It's just as classic as FF1, and just as innovative and groundbreaking, meaning that 'respect' votes shouldn't go all in favor of the original. FF1 started the series, but FFIV laid most of the foundation for what Final Fantasy is known for today, including the ATB system and an actual story with actual characters. I wouldn't say this is uncommon knowledge either, since you usually hear FFIV getting all the credit for being the real major RPG to do these things. I don't think this matters too much in either case, but it can't hurt to be a revolutionary entry in a series when you're up against the one that started it all. But the biggest thing here, obviously, is the fact that FFIV the preferred game among just about everybody. There's a few people who like FF1 more, and I don't doubt most like it just fine by itself, but up against FFIV, or just about any other FF for that matter, I don't think it's going to compete. People like it, but you'll find very few who love it so much that they'd rank it as one of the best in the series, something you see FFIV getting a lot of. Add on top of this the recent remake on the DS, which has gotten a fair amount of attention, and I don't think FFIV should have any reason to have trouble here. And as far as Mega Man 3 is concerned, I don't think it has much of a chance. It's already clearly the weakest game out of this pack, and it's going to have to deal with losing votes to Super Mario World -- the bigger, better Nintendo platformer. And for all the pic talk surrounding MM2, it's a good to remember that MM3 had a classic MM sprite against FFIV's Amano art last round -- and it still got pulverized. Can't see it placing anywhere but last today. If FFIV loses this one I think it's safe to say two things: 1) it's not as strong as Final Fantasy, plain and simple, and 2) GameFAQs needs to get some better taste ! Super Mario World -- 36% Final Fantasy IV -- 27% Final Fantasy -- 20% Mega Man 3 -- 17% Bracket: Super Mario World > Final Fantasy IV Favorites: Final Fantasy IV > Final Fantasy Lopen’s Analysis It's interesting, I have conflicted thoughts about this match. On the one hand, Mega Man 2 failed to defeat Tetris. On the other hand, as I expected Mega Man 2 hardly budged in R2 vs R1. On one hand, Sonic didn't lose to Street Fighter today. On the other? Sonic only won because it mauled SF2 last round, and it squeaked by. |
So
that's all very interesting. But really, it breaks down to Mega Man 3
needing the split needs to be basically even and for FF to obtain less
than 45% of the vote to have a ghost of a chance unless the fanbase
really is that hard to budge... and I just don't think both of those
variables are going to line up. Well then... what are we left with? Final Fantasy 1 vs Final Fantasy 4. I think my crewmates basically unanimously go with FF4 here... I can't say I agree. FF1's chances of upset are being very underestimated here. To me, it's all about relative influence. On the SNES, FF4 was in the company of a sea of RPGs. It can't even say it was the most popular FF game on the console. Not to mention Chrono Trigger, Earthbound, and tons of other quality RPGs. FF1? It had... ... Dragon Warrior. Yeah. FF1 is easily in the top 5 of NES games among NES fans... I'd say arguably number 2 or 3. FFIV? Top 10 if you're feeling generous. People will point to FF1 doing worse in the favorite FF polls. I think that poll format is loaded in FF4's favor... or rather, FF1's unfavor. Two reasons for this: 1. FF1 has never jumped out at me as one that many FF fans (ie not many hardcore FF1 fanboys out there) put on top of such hierarchies, but I would claim that overall it seems to place higher than FF4. 2. Assuming a lack of preference between the two among FF fans, FF1 is going to get cred for being "the original." Franchise voting won't be a big factor here, with SMW and MM3 being popular games that should erradicate most franchise votes, but I wouldn't count them as neglible either given that the franchise in question is THE Final Fantasy. FF1 doing so well in other matches is 4REAL, and it's going to show this round. FF1 to the quarterfinals! Lopen's Prediction: Super Mario World - 33.01% Final Fantasy - 25.01% Mega Man 3 - 22.97% Final Fantasy 4 - 19.01% Transience’s Analysis Here's a huge match. This result could cause a huge domino effect that might determine a finalist due to a tornado of overlap. Doubtful, but possible! Let's start with Mega Man 3. Logic would tell you that it would benefit from two Final Fantasy games in the same poll. Mega Man 3 got 41% on FF4 last round -- shouldn't the same-series overlap be enough to push it over the edge? And the answer is.. no. This match reminds me a lot of Link/Crono/Vincent/Zero from 2007: two Square characters would suggest that Zero has a chance, but Zero got absolutely hammered by Link and was never even close to being in contention. The same thing is going to happen with Mario World / MM3 -- MM3's gonna be on the bad side of this one. That leaves FF1 and FF4. This is a funky match. FF4 wins out in every category: story, gameplay, characters, bosses, blah blah blah. It's more liked among the core fanbase. It should be en route to an easy win here. But I also think FF4 is kinda lost in the mix. I don't think it has as high of a playrate as the original. FF1 and FF6 are better known games with FF4 being kind of forgotten. FF1 carries more nostalgia for the average person who's played both, I imagine. It got a pretty good score on Mario World. It totally wins the picture. Indirectly, I imagine it's just as strong as FF4, and has the possibility of being stronger. Besides, we're currently watching Sonic 1 look better than Sonic 2 and most would agree that Sonic 2 is the superior game. There's something about being first that outweighs tweaking the formula for the greater good. I would put these two are relatively equal ground if it weren't for the DS remake of FF4. I think that really put FF4 on the map for a lot of people. Kain wasn't that far off from Zidane in the character battle; Rydia blew away Marcus Fenix. I'm not 100% convinced it beats FF1, but if SFF comes into play it should go FF4's way. This is really hard to predict on percentages, but FF4 should be the safe pick. |
The
thing to watch here is Mario World's percentage. If it can't go to town
with overlap in its favour, how's it going to survive the next round
when the reverse is true? Awesome fourpack, by the way. By far my favourite of the contest. I've beaten all of these at least ten times. transience's prediction: Super Mario World - 39% Final Fantasy IV - 25% Final Fantasy - 19% Mega Man 3 - 17% Leonhart’s Analysis Super Mario World: Super Mario World looked pretty darn good in the first round, beating Final Fantasy I with relative ease (around 55/45, which is what you’d expect based on Mario 3/FFI). This time, it should have it even easier thanks to FFI and FFIV splitting with each other. Mega Man 3 isn’t a threat to it here. If anything, Mario World will victimize it and made it look bad. It’s got first place easily here. Final Fantasy: If the first round has taught me anything, it’s that FFI and LoZ1’s strengths are legit, not just franchise-fueled. After watching FFXII, FFT, MM, and WW all perform badly in this format, you know there’s more to this than just franchise voting. FFI followed up 40% on Mario 3 in the original Games Contest with 45% on Mario World last round. It’s no fluke. However, it seems to be at a disadvantage against Final Fantasy IV. If you look at any old FF poll, FFIV beats it every time (though we’re talking FFVIII > FFVI these days, so I don’t guess that means too much!). Of course, those games are getting like 5% total in most of those, so again, those polls can’t be taken with much credibility. Well, there is a poll that asks which early FF title is your favorite (just FFI-FFVI), and FFIV beats it 14.5% to 9.3%, but FFVI is taking up over 50% of the vote. Hard to say how credible that is. Heck, FFIII beats FFI in that poll (which is probably due to people thinking it’s FFVI), so it’s hard to put a lot of stock into it. Gut instinct simply tells me that FFIV > FFI because tranny is like the only person I know who’d prefer the original. That’s not to say FFI can’t win, and I won’t be surprised if it does, but I think FFIV has the advantage. Final Fantasy IV: Man, I think I said everything I needed to say about FFIV in that FFI write-up. FFIV easily won its first round fourpack, netting over 50% of the vote and putting plenty of distance between it and Mega Man 3. It’s in a good position to take second place here, though honestly, I don’t see any reason why FFI couldn’t do the same thing. I think we all fail to give FFI any credit because we don’t seem to think people like it very much. It’s not many people’s favorite, but it does seem to have a lot of fans. I don’t think FFIV gives it an LFF beat down by any means, but I don’t think it’ll be that close either. Mega Man 3: Man, this may be the worst bracket I’ve ever put together. I’ve got Mega Man 3 advancing here. I suppose it’s not impossible if FFIV and FFI split right down the middle and Mario World doesn’t lay an SFF smackdown on Mega Man 3 here. The first is possible, but the second one…eh, not so much. Plus, Mega Man 3 finished far enough behind FFIV that even an LFF split may not be enough. I think the only certainty of this matchup is that Mario World takes first. I think MM3 can do something other than finish dead last, but…I’m not really expecting it. Leonhart’s Vote: Super Mario World, easily. Leonhart’s Prediction: Super Mario World – 36.11% Final Fantasy – 23.11% Final Fantasy IV – 26.54% Mega Man 3 – 14.24% |
Guest’s Analysis - Luis_Sera89 Looking over my bracket a few days after the contest started, and even probably a few days before, it became pretty apparent on which games my bracket lives or dies. I’ve got a fair bit of red type reaching the later rounds according to the guru contest but one game goes further than most; FFIV. I don’t expect it to be a game approaching top 10 or even top 20 in terms of strength, yet I still have it taking advantage of match-up after match-up in order to reach the final 8. Today is the first in a long string of hurdles up ‘til that point. In case it wasn’t already obvious, I’m sticking with my bracket here and taking FFIV to beat the original. The first round hasn’t given me any cause for alarm bells yet. FFI looked decent in losing to SMW, whereas looked pretty good achieving 50% on it’s four-pack. It’s strongest competition was MM3, yes, but that shouldn’t detract from the performance. Thinking it over, what does FFI have over on FFIV? Nostalgia? The fact that we saw it look decent 5 years ago? But up against a game that’s more relevant, has more well known and popular characters, has the more notable remakes and is for all intents and purposes, better, I think the voters will side with FFIV. As far as other matters are concerned, SMW will probably win somewhat handsomely. It’s already the strongest game of the 4, and with the two Square titles splitting votes, it’ll appear even more so. MM3 comes last, and probably isn’t relishing the thought of facing Mario. All in all, FFIV’s got just about enough for second place here, although it’s time will come next round when it’s Mario’s turn to play ‘pick your poison’. Super Mario World – 36.5% Final Fantasy I – 23% Final Fantasy IV – 27.5% Mega Man III – 13% Crew Consensus: SMW > FFIV is the favorite, though Lopen has SMW > MM3 |
Hit-or-miss Lopen strikes again! Pretty sure he's got Mario World > FFI though. --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
let's go FF1 time for more FF rap quotes --- xyzzy |
Match 36 Mario World vs. two Final Fantasies vs. Mega Man 3. THA BIG QUESTION: Will the Final Fanbasetasy be split enough for MM3 to place? THA ANSWER: Hell no. Mega Man has looked pretty much like ass all contest, from MM2 flopping in two rounds to MMX failing to place. There’s little reason to assume anything will be different here, and the big question will instead be: can Mega Man 3 beat Final Fantasy 1? (Hint: No, it cannot.) Really, this match is just a prelude to next round, when Mario 3 will tangle with Mario World in what is sure to be THE MOST BORING MATCH OF ALL TIME. Prediction: go watch Super Mario Bros. Z Super Mario World with 35.08% Final Fantasy with 20.87% Final Fantasy IV with 24.44% Mega Man 3 with 19.61% --- This was KING BELLIS LOL AND I HAVE A CYOA YOU SHOULD READ http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=45420715 |
From: LeonhartFour | #274 augh i was thinking FF1 when i typed that and still put MM3 darn you lopen --- Moltar Status: complete global saturation Match 35 - Bracket: SMB3 > SF2 - Vote: Sonic (99/144) |
I have Mega Man 3 taking second place here, so I'm all for chaos! All for Garland, too! --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
FFIV's got this! --- a metal slime appears |
FF4 knocked down --- xyzzy |
Yup, just as I called it, unanimous for FF4 aside from me. Time to get owned, my crewish cohorts! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
And yeah, my bracket has MM3 going over here too. This is going to be my worst bracket ever including 2004 when I had Ryu Hayabusa in the semifinals! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
My first bracket ever was the Games Contest. I knew that Final Fantasy was popular around here, so I picked it to win. Final Fantasy 1, that is. Those were the days. --- http://thengamer.com/guru/ |
Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup Bah... after Street Fighter pulled a stall on the second update and starting making cuts afterward tranny told us not to get excited because this was "going to be Mario RPG > SFII all over again." I held out hope that the result could be different since there was a MARIO in the way, but as it turns out he was right. What a weird poll... Mario 3 easily beating Sonic and SFII combined is by no means a bad result, and yet its coming up something like 7% below our expectations here, and failed to make major noise with the Day Vote as I'd been expecting. I guess you've just got to chalk that up to Monkey Island's fanbase being super dedicated, the battle for 2nd place stealing some votes away, and maybe that less-than-iconic picture. I'm sure M3's still fine- we were all just coming in a little high off the Mario Kool Aid after that very impressive takedown of Zelda. Now then, tonight is the most important match of the Contest, in my opinion. Maybe that's putting it a touch strongly... but it's the early round matchup that is going to do the most to effect how the bracket plays out down the line. So maybe it would make more sense to call it the cornerstone of the bracket, or the lynchpin? In any case, I decided early on that tomorrow's winner would determine which game ends up representing the 8-bit division in the Contest Final, and I stand by that. If an FF makes it out, the Square games gets a free ride for a bunch of rounds until LttP knocks it out to make the Final, but if MM3 could slide past that would allow Zelda 1 to get further until a double Zelda poll would put Mario 3 in the Championship instead. ...unfortunately, I took what I now realize was the wrong upset. I've never understood all the hype for FF4, and since 1 vs 4 was going to be a tossup in my mind I decided to bypass that choice altogether by saying the MM3 could powerslide past due to LFF. And I'd still argue that it was a good decision IN THEORY; the problem is that in reality MM has just not been up to snuff this season, and that furthermore it seems like any 8/16 bit platformer most likely gets murdered by Mario 1, 3, or World. So I've got to break from my bracket and accept that MM3 finishes in last place here (though I still think it can keep this closer than most expect). However my doubts regarding FF4 have far from subsided! I'm sure it's a great game and all, but I just don't get the impression that most of the Square fanbase on this site has played anything earlier than FF6 (and this year it's looking like even 6 might have taken a tumble), and so when given the option of two games they don't know much about, I'm thinking they mostly take the original. Especially when 1 nabs such an iconic picture with appealing sprites (seriously, even gamers who haven't touched the early FF series are familiar with Black Mage and Fighter) while the other option gets stuck with the "FF2" label that fewer people know and a big blob of blur as a screenshot. Yep, jumping off one upset train just to get on the other, final decision! Super Mario World - 38.79% Final Fantasy - 21.62% Final Fantasy IV - 21.57% Mega Man 3 - 18.02% This should be an exciting poll check... --- The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/ (thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either) |
Gracious
sakes, FF4 with 66% on FF1? Mario with 85% on MM? I knew there was a
good chance HM could be right, but never expected he could be THIS
right! (I'm also starting to miss the days when we thought SFF smackdowns weren't going to be a major story this season.) --- The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/ (thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either) |
cool, I won the Mario World point with 39% well then --- xyzzy |
Yeah, I wonder what the highest Oracle for Mario World was for this match... --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
Sonic the Hedgehog-------------22.59% 25548 Street Fighter II-------------------20.64% 23351 Super Mario Bros. 3-------------48.68% 55062 The Secret of Monkey Island-----8.09% 9153 TOTAL VOTES---------------------------113114 Matches Completely Correct - 20 Matches Partially Correct - 15 Matches Completely Wrong - 0 What Happened - Mario 3? This isn't the beast I expected! It takes first, but also fails to draw half the vote. Sonic also resists SFF well enough to beat out SF2 again. Why it Happened - Mario/Sonic SFF doesn't exist? This is a good match to show it. Sonic didn't even do that much worse relative to SF2 from Round 1. What Will Happen - Good run Sonic 1, but it's over next round. Crew Prediction Challenge - Go Ed! Tran - 21 Guest - 21 HM - 20 Moltar - 17 Ed - 16 Leon - 16 Lopen - 15 Crew Accuracy Challenge - BDawg gets the point for SMB3 and Sonic 1, Moltar gets the point for SF2, and Moltar and HM get the point for Monkey Island HM - 35 Moltar - 35 Tran - 23 Leon - 17 Guest (Luster, Zylo (3), HaRR, Kleenex (2), Soul, TRT, KP (3), Chaotic, Ngamer, GfK, Trout, BDawg (2)) - 18 Lopen - 16 Ed - 15 --- Moltar Status: complete global saturation Match 36 - Bracket: SMW > FFIV - Vote: SMW (103/152) |
If
you look at vote totals for round 1, you'll see that Sonic 1 beat SFII
by about ten thousand votes, and Mario/Sonic SFF wouldn't be enough for
SFII to make up that ground. |
this just in -- first place got more votes than second place --- xyzzy "Actually, fire didn't make Sephiroth awesome. Sephiroth made fire awesome." -Karma Hunter |
Aw yeah, I'm still ahead of Guest despite having fewer points! And man, we really overshot MM3 here. Of course, I think that's partially because we really undershot Mario World. --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
Hmm...I guess I'd better change a few things for tomorrow's match! --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
Division 3: Round 2 - Match 37 – Super Metroid vs. Super Mario Kart vs. The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past vs. Donkey Kong Country Moltar’s Analysis Super Metroid Round 1 - 35.29% vs. Super Mario Kart, Sonic 3 and Gunstar Heroes Well Super Metroid got first… Super Mario Kart Round 1 - 35.16% vs. Super Metroid, Sonic 3 and Gunstar Heroes …even though it almost lost to Super Mario Kart Link to the Past Round 1 - 56.25% vs. Donkey Kong Country, Doom and Streets of Rage II LttP puts up some good numbers here Donkey Kong Country Round 1 - 18.01% vs. Link to the Past, Doom and Streets of Rage II Either DKC resisted JUST enough SFF or Doom just sucks I’m tired and not in the mood to do this. Obviously expect a great write-up here. I have LttP > Doom in my bracket. Doom was supposed to take advantage of the SFF, but since it sucks too much to beat DKC I guess that ain’t happening. LttP kills and DKC takes last obv. Second is between Metroid and Mario Kart. Last time we saw LttP/Super Metroid, it was ugly. Still, I would think it has the more dedicated fanbase compared to Mario Kart, which seems to benefit more with casuals. You know, those casuals who are going to be voting en masse for LttP here. I mean I feel like I should side with SMK here, but I’ve been so terrible at calling SFF that I just don’t care anymore. Go Super Metroid! Moltar’s Bracket Says: LttP > Doom Moltar’s Prediction is: LttP: 49% - SM: 22% - SMK: 18% - DKC: 11% Heroic Mario’s Analysis FFIV advancing vindicated -- too bad SMW did so much better letting people rag on it ! Today's match is probably about as good as an all-Nintendo match can get. We've got Zelda, we've got Metroid, we've got a Mario spin-off, and we have Donkey Kong. Anything could happen here and I wouldn't be all that surprised, though DKC managing to pull through yet again might make me double take. We all know that Zelda is going to rock this pack hard...or at least that's the expectation heading in. The way I see it, LTTP can do one of two things here -- blow everything out with a mid-50s percentage, or it could pull a Mario 3 style disappointment by not being able to break 50%. I think it's far more likely to end up in the mid-50s considering there's nothing that's non-Nintendo here, but we'll see. The bigger match is between Metroid and Mario Kart. I'm not sure where the Crew sits on this, but if they favor Mario Kart, it's probably using the argument that the Nintendo heirarchy goes Zelda > Mario > Metroid, on top of Metroid looking disappointing in this contest and in general being more suspectible to Nintendo SFF. That's a legit argument, but not one I subscribe to! For me, this match comes down to which game is less likely to lose its votes to Zelda. As strange as it may sound given their similarities, I think that's Super Metroid. It's the game with a fanbase that is less likely to abandon it, and by that I mean keeping enough of its fanbase to get by with the low percentage that will be needed to advance. SM will undoubtedly lose a good chunk of its votes to Zelda, but everything here will. Given how Metroid managed to hold up against LoZ, and how Mario Kart is more likely a 'casual' vote that's going to sucked up by Zelda, I think it can do enough to move on. It helps that it beat SMK last round, too. A Link to the Past -- 50% Super Metroid -- 21% Super Mario Kart -- 18% Donkey Kong Country -- 11% Bracket: Link to the Past > Super Metroid Favorites: Super Metroid > Link to the Past Lopen’s Analysis Whoo Nintendo. |
Anyway,
LttP is the one that wins here, we all know that. We've also seen LttP
smack Super Metroid down pretty effectively in the past, so it could be
in doubt to get second here. But... I'm not really seeing it. For every disadvantage Super Metroid has here, I just can't see Mario Kart doing any better. It's not as if Metroid can't SFF anything. Look at how Paper Mario did against Metroid Prime earlier in this contest. And for what it's worth, while I usually hate to use the Top 100 list for anything, you can't ignore that Super Metroid did like 20 spots better than Mario Kart on it. That to me implies that it has a more resilient fanbase in this match. Also the massive critical acclaim it got, etc etc. Super Mario Kart has the advantage among casual voters, but you can't depend on that to stick around with juggernauts like Zelda around. And that's basically all this match is, calling SFF, since the games were very close to one another last round. Give me Metroid to hold up better. (Dammit why do I have Doom taking second here) Lopen's prediction: Link to the Past – 43.33% Super Metroid – 23.05% Super Mario Kart – 22.02% Donkey Kong Country – 11.60% Transience’s Analysis Holy Nintendo. LTTP is going to wreck this pack -- what game comes in a distant second? We can discount Donkey Kong Country, for starters. It did pretty well last round but it's up against bigger names and better games. Super Metroid and Super Mario Kart was a tight match in round 1. Which game overlaps with LTTP more? Whichever game is more independent of LTTP is your winner here. The smart pick is Super Mario Kart. Here you've got three action games and then a party racer. Plus, Mario Kart 64 did pretty well when up against a powerhouse while Metroid Prime bombed. We've also seen Zelda go to town on Super Metroid before. 24% wasn't exactly inspiring for Super Metroid, and some of those votes were probably pity votes or Not Zelda votes. SMK's gotta be looked at as the favourite to advance. But I'm gonna go against that push and support Super Metroid. I trust its fanbase to come through with the 15-20% needed to win. I think SMK could get nerfed when up against a big Nintendo game -- I looked at SMK votes last round as being a vote for "yeah, I don't care about these games, let's vote Mario Kart." That's not to say that SMK doesn't have big fans -- I'm one of them -- but a lot of Mario Kart fans are fairly casual and will have no problem abandoning it for Zelda. Plus, Super Metroid was against three action games last round and still managed to squeak out a win. It's certainly risky, but I'll back my favourite game over a dated racer! transience's prediction: Zelda: A Link to the Past - 50% Super Metroid - 21% Super Mario Kart - 20% Donkey Kong Country - 9% Leonhart’s Analysis Super Metroid: Man, this match is an absolute guessing game. There’s no way anyone can figure out how the LFF will split with any measure of objectivity, but who cares! This match will be fun for at least the first five minutes! Hopefully, it’ll be fun for longer than that! On paper, I think Super Metroid has the advantage. It already beat Super Mario Kart last round (though by a margin that could be overturned on any given day), and for whatever it’s worth, it did a little better on Link to the Past in 2004 than Donkey Kong Country did last round. It’s probably got the most hardcore fanbase of the three competing for second, if that’s worth anything. It’s likely to hold up to SFF better than DKC (though DKC held up a lot better to LTTP than we thought it would, so maybe it’s not as SFF prone as DK himself). However, the fact that it struggled with Super Mario Kart to begin with and Metroid Prime’s bomb last round, Super Metroid advancing is far from a guarantee. |
Super Mario Kart:
Why is this game even here right now in the second round, going 50/50
with Super Metroid and leaving Sonic 3 in the dust? It is my opinion
that the very fact that Super Mario Kart is even here seems to indicate
that there is a sizable contingent of people who love this series who
are not necessarily Nintendo fans. People who don’t like Nintendo
anymore still played Mario Kart when they were kids and loved it. It is
one of the ultimate casual games, but at the same time, the people who
love Mario Kart really love it, so I don’t think they’ll abandon it so
quickly. I think it’ll provide the most resistance to SFF from LTTP.
However, this analysis is coming from a pretty big Mario Kart fanboy,
so take it with a grain of salt! There’s a high possibility that I’m
completely wrong and Mario Kart will get destroyed! I’m just trying to
spin this analysis so that I convince myself SMK advances. So…are you
guys convinced yet? The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past: Yeah, this game is going to get first place by a wide margin, but nobody cares about LTTP here! It’s all about the games competing for second! Not even the numbers Link to the Past puts up matter here because it’s a 4-way Nintendo poll. This match will tell us nothing about LTTP unless something crazy happens like letting Mario Kart get too close to it. Donkey Kong Country: DKC held up to LTTP surprisingly well and managed to beat Doom in spite of the SFF. This game is a SNES classic, so it’s probably got a lot of fans. I’m not sure how close in strength it is to Super Metroid and Super Mario Kart unhindered, but I doubt it’s too far behind. After all, those two aren’t bastions of strength by any means. It kinda surprises me to consider DKC being in the same league with these two, but it seems like it is. Can it stand up to LFF enough to take second place? This is going to be a crazy match, so there’s no telling! Leonhart’s Vote: Super Mario Kart riding the Rainbow Road to victory lane! Leonhart’s Prediction: Super Metroid – 15.67% Super Mario Kart – 17.79% A Link to the Past – 55.11% Donkey Kong Country – 11.43% Guest’s Analysis - KleenexTissue50 Time for The Final Fantasy VII Killer™'s Round 2 match. Excited? I know I am. Let's turn back the clock and take a look at what happened last round before we get to this analysis. In the first match, Super Metroid laid a big one and nearly lost to Mario Kart. This is certainly an impressive performance from Mario Kart, but moreso a crappy one for Metroid. And based on how Metroid Prime and Mario Kart 64 did later in the bracket, this holds true. In the other match, Donkey Kong managed not to choke and beat out DOOM for second place, with Link to the Past taking the obvious first place. This sets up our first (of likely two) all-Nintendo matches of the contest. |
Right
off the bat, we can probably count Donkey Kong Country out of the
running. There's little reason to believe that the game's in the same
league with Metroid and Mario, and Donkey Kong is way down at the
bottom of the Nintendo francise totem pole. Which leaves a nice little
rematch betweet Metroid and Mario Kart for second place. EVen without
the influence of the other games in this match, the results from last
round could easily be reversed. But with how Metroid absolutely
crumbled against Mario and Zelda two days ago, and the fact that
Metroid not only has a history of jobbing against stronger Nintendo but
also sucked hard this contest, it doesn't seem like it has a good
chance at winning. In fact, it's not even going to be close. Well, as
"not close" as you can get when you're fighting for less than half the
vote. Which brings me to my next point. Link to the Past is going to rock this 4-pack in the face. Donkey Kong's not that strong, and Zelda inherently creams Metroid. Mario Kart might make a run for 20% here, but that shouldn't matter. LttP's getting 50%+ of the vote and Final Fantasy VII better be shaking in its lego-shaped boots. Kleenex's Predictions Donkey Kong Country - 9.75% Super Mario Kart - 20.59% Super Metroid - 16.78% Zelda: A Link to the Past - 52.88% Crew Consensus: Huh, LttP > SM is a bigger majority than I would have figured. Only Leon and the Guest have LttP > SMK |
Crew is cruisin' for a bruisin'. (for real this time) --- I can feel it coming over me; I feel it all around me. http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg |
Crew is cruisin' for a bruisin'. (for real this time) Aw yeah! Surprised more people didn't call for a big LTTP number after seeing what SMW is doing here. Of course, I went big with Mario 3 and that didn't work out. I went low with SMW and that didn't work out. Let's see what happens! --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
