GameFAQs Contests


Best Game Ever 2 Contest Analysis Crew (Part Three)

Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/7/2009 9:04:19 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #151
If Fallout 3 wasn't here, I'd pick Mass Effect. It's a well-liked WRPG a la Oblivion and it had a character that didn't completely bomb in the character battle. For a WRPG character, that's pretty good. It also performed fairly well against Halo 3 in the 360 GOTY, though it still lost handily. Fallout 3 nerfs every advantage it has though.

So with that said, I'll reluctantly back Halo 3. I feel a little bit better about this now that COD4 came out and did Big Things -- that tells me that it wasn't all Halo 3 bombing in the 2007 GOTY. One thing about Halo is that it won't turn into fodder - it's probably guaranteed 20% of the poll and another game will have to rise up to beat it. I don't think these games are worthy of it. Maybe if we had a low-tier Square or Nintendo game that could polarize those fanbases -- TWEWY or No More Heroes or something -- I'd go for it, but not with what we have here.

As for Fallout 3, I expect big things. After 223 days, it's still #1 in the FAQs. It's also got some new DLC that just came out. It's almost definitely the biggest RPG not made by Square on this site. Let's see how it can do after a great showing in last year's GOTY.

round 2, here we come!

transience's prediction:

Fallout 3 - 39%
Halo 3 - 26%
Mass Effect - 18%
Left 4 Dead - 17%

Leon’s Analysis

Fallout 3: This game seems to be a pretty obvious first place, especially after we’ve watched the first two Halo games bomb. This game stayed very close to MGS4 and SSBB, something none of the other games in this poll would be able to do. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of numbers it puts up here as the top dog.

Halo 3: I know it’s not a good idea to take things for granted in this contest, especially when they involve Halo, but I think Halo 3 advances pretty easily here. It already beat Mass Effect handily in the Xbox 360 GOTY poll (which isn’t always a good indicator of contest strength! Just ask Halo 2!), so I guess the only competition left to consider is Left 4 Dead. Again, with Halo’s contest history, it’s possible, but I like Halo 3’s chances here.

Left 4 Dead: I literally know nothing about this game other than its name. It got rocked by Fallout 3 in the Multi-platform GOTY poll and it finished decently behind GTA IV. I’d expect Halo 3 and GTA IV to be roughly on the same level, but that’s complete speculation on my part. I seriously have no idea what to expect from this match or these games.

Mass Effect: Another game I literally know nothing about other than the name. Man, this has got to be the worst write-up ever. It lost the Xbox 360 GOTY poll to Halo 3 pretty convincingly, and it’s not touching Fallout 3. Probably gets dead last in this poll. Who knows? I need to play more current-gen games.

Leonhart’s Vote: The only match where I haven’t played a single game, so…

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Fallout 3 – 40.04%
Halo 3 – 30.03%
Left 4 Dead – 20.02%
Mass Effect – 9.91%

Ed Bellis’s Analysis

Guest’s Analysis - Chaotic Mind

Alright, time for my second guest write-up for the AC! Can i get prediction and accuracy points again? Eh, prediction probably but my accuracy's been sucking for this division. That's what happens when you haven't played any of the games i guess!

So let's see, we've got a four-pack of 360 games. This is kinda interesting because it means there won't be any console war bs affecting the outcome and each game's full strength should be on display right? Wrong, because we have 2 wrpg's and 2 fps games.

The 2 wrpg's are Fallout 3 and Mass Effect. Both are widely respected and critically acclaimed, but Fallout 3 much moreso from what i hear, so Fallout 3>Mass Effect.
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/7/2009 9:04:38 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #152
IThe 2 fps games are Halo 3 and Left 4 Dead. Now the Halo series is huge, or at least it used to be, but its popularity has died off. CoD4 has replaced it as the king of console shooters. Left 4 Dead on the other hand is new, and it has zombies! For reasons i don't understand at all, lots of young American males are obsessed with zombies, especially killing them. L4D also just got a new expansion or something. Does this mean L4D>Halo 3? Maybe, but despite how much Halo's been bombing this contest i'll still take Halo 3>L4D.

So the result should be Fallout 3>Halo 3 as they crush the weaker games in their respective genres, right? That's what i've got in my bracket, and that's what i'll go with after seeing Brawl crush SF4 since Fallout 3 seemed to have similar strength in the GOTY poll it shared with Brawl. However, we've seen many instances of those GOTY polls not being worth a damn, and rpg's have been impressing throughout the contest (Oblivion>ToS>GoW>GTA:SA what?!), so i would not be very surprised to see Halo 3 bombing + Mass Effect resisting genre-SFF to give us Fallout 3>Mass Effect as the final result.

Prediction: Fallout 3>Halo 3

Fallout 3 - 37.09%
Halo 3 - 25.44%
Left 4 Dead - 17.11%
Mass Effect - 20.36%

Bracket: Fallout 3>Halo 3
Vote: Haven't played any of the games, i like wrpg's and Halo, so i'll vote for Halo if it needs it. Otherwise i'll vote for whatever game helps my oracle except L4D. Screw zombie games!

And you know what, just for fun, here's my predix for what happens if Fallout 3 doesn't grind Mass Effect into dust and Halo 3 bombs (Molty don't count this for the Crew challenges even if it does happen):

Fallout 3>Mass Effect

Fallout 3 - 33.09%
Halo 3 - 23.44%
Left 4 Dead - 18.11%
Mass Effect - 25.36%

I give the above scenario about a 40% chance of happening.

Crew Consensus: Fallout 3 > Halo 3 looking pretty good.
Ed Bellis | Posted 5/7/2009 9:06:02 PM | message detail | filter | #153
ed status: Maybe the chef was Darkseid. You don't mess with Darkseid. -MoogleKupo141
Ed Bellis | Posted 5/7/2009 9:07:11 PM | message detail | filter | #154
Match 32

Round One is finally over, and with baited breath we will soon return to the land of 8-BIT GAMES OH JESUS. But first, one more excursion into the realm of modern gaming.

The Game of the Year polls have been getting a lot of flak lately for how GTA and Mario Galaxy have both flopped, yet somebody also rightfully pointed out that they were correct in giving us hints about Call of Duty 4’s strength – and I think the same thing will happen with Fallout 3. Gone are the days when Fallout was a cult series; Fallout 3 should be the “real deal.”

…at least, that’s how conventional logic goes. In all honesty, this poll makes me queasy, because logistically any of the four games can take first or second. Halo 3 has the recency factor and the LOL HALO FLOP factor, Left 4 Dead has the tons of multiplayer factor, Mass Effect has the uhhh I guess it’s popular factor. I could see all these games ending up at 25 percent.

So I’ll just say Fallout 3 > Left 4 Dead, because I can’t put any trust in Halo 3 and because I literally don’t know anything about Mass Effect. (Then again, the last time this happened was with Altair ‘whoops’).

Prediction: no quotes because i know crap about these games LOL
Fallout 3 with 29.29%
Halo 3 with 24.00%
Left 4 Dead with 27.22%
Mass Effect with 19.49%

ed status: Maybe the chef was Darkseid. You don't mess with Darkseid. -MoogleKupo141
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/7/2009 9:12:27 PM | message detail | filter | #155
Man, I was gonna be disappointed if SOMEONE didn't pick against Halo 3! Thanks, Ed!
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/7/2009 9:12:53 PM | message detail | filter | #156
Crisis averted (unless Mass Effect gets 2nd).

transients | Posted 5/7/2009 9:13:31 PM | message detail | filter | #157
boring match, even if Halo loses it doesn't matter
transients | Posted 5/7/2009 9:13:49 PM | message detail | filter | #158
in fact, the only way this can be interesting is with a weird Fallout performance.. which I could see happening.
The Real Truth | Posted 5/7/2009 9:14:55 PM | message detail | filter | #159
I think Mass Effect bombs here. The game is pretty good, but I don't ever really hear anybody talking about it. And the RPG crowd should turn to Fallout 3. Expect it to come in last.
GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site. -CJayC
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/7/2009 9:21:12 PM | message detail | filter | #160
Short one and early one tonight because I'm literally heading out the door to Star Trek.

Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup

Dang, for a match with such potential, today didn't end up being that enthralling. MGS4 did decently but didn't really impress given the weakness of the competition, LBP disappointed somewhat but it's got a perfectly acceptable excuse, and all of the options were so similar in their fanbases that the overall trends were nearly non-existent. The storyline we'd drawn up was Portal getting out to a huge meme-fueled/WCC-like start in the first couple hours before giving that entire advantage away one the sun rose. Then BioShock was going to Xbox ASV its way into a lead, everyone would get worried for their bracket, but the Valve fans would rally to save the day in the final half hour. And well, it almost happened... BS has been cutting into the lead pretty consistently all afternoon, but like just about every other shooter in this contest, it looks as though the FPS is going to come up just a little bit short.

Tonight promises... well, more of the same, actually! I'm not sure what SB was thinking with a grouping like this- if you would take any two of these games and place them anywhere else in the bracket I would comment at length about how they were sure to hurt each other. So instead he heaps them all into a single pile! I guess that, in theory, if everyone is LFFing everyone else then NO ONE is LFFing anyone and it all evens out. But in reality setups like this just lead to dull, trendless matches where no one has a chance at a comeback because without any fanbase diversity the percentages just stagnate after the opening hour. Exactly like what we just sat through!

Soooo, with so many kind-of-PC-but-actually-360 mature shooters and semi-shooters to choose from, does any one game have the upper hand? I don't really think so, but if pressed I suppose I would back Fallout to look best tonight. Sure it overlaps a good bit with Mass Effect, but it has the recency advantage (which always seems to be a big deal in GotYish polls like this) and doesn't appear to have faded from the public's mind as quickly as most holiday releases do. That being said I still don't think ME gets totally crunched; Fo3 seems like another MGS4 kind of game that's always going to be heavily supported and look good in a multiway format but that doesn't have the massive playrate or casual appeal needed to blow anyone out.

The only question remaining is, can L4D pull a CoD4 and refuse to bend under Halo 3's pressure? My answer: an extremely timid "maybe." Left 4 Dead has had amazing sales for such a small release and continues to have great legs every month, and I think even people who aren't playing it on Live right now still have fond memories of matches they played with their friends in the last few months. I'm banking on L4D holding Halo back enough where first place is never in contention, but the Western RPGs > Western Shooters trend has me leaning toward ME for 3rd place in this one. Should be close though, especially with how much that green box art stands out in the match pic. Let's say...

Fallout 3 - 34.28%
Halo 3 - 27.55%
Mass Effect - 20.25%
Left 4 Dead - 17.91%

Yes sir, about 0% confidence in that!

The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/7/2009 9:22:08 PM | message detail | filter | #161
Ed Bellis knows what's up.


Crap, I'm screwed/
In-de-structable. Nothing's gonna stop me now.
transients | Posted 5/7/2009 9:26:12 PM | message detail | filter | #162
lol 4 dead
ZFS | Posted 5/7/2009 9:56:40 PM | message detail | filter | #163
Whoops, got busy tonight...

This match kinda sucks, a lot like the Diablo/Halo/KOTOR match earlier. Anything can advance here just because GameFAQs probably doesn't care much about any of them sans Fallout 3. Making this match even more of a pain to predict, I haven't played any of these games except for Halo 3!

Fallout 3 is an easy choice for first after the most recent GotY polls, where it managed to hang with MGS4 and Brawl. Second place could go anywhere. At a glance, Mass Effect seems like a good pick because Left 4 Dead will probably hurt Halo and the series to this point has been largely unimpressive. But Fallout is going to take a lot of ME votes -- they're similar games appealing to similar people.

I'm gonna stick with Fallout > Halo just because they're the two games with a name. I don't trust L4D to be worth very much, in the same way TF2 wasn't worth anything a few days ago, but ME could take second here and I wouldn't be surprised.

Fallout 3 -- 38%
Halo 3 -- 27%
Mass Effect -- 23%
Left 4 Dead -- 13%

Bracket: Fallout 3 > Halo 3
Favorites: uhh Halo 3 is the only thing I've played here

a metal slime appears
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/8/2009 1:09:57 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #164
BioShock----------------22.79% 24944
LittleBigPlanet----------11.16% 12213
Metal Gear Solid 4-----41.91% 45869
Portal---------------------24.14% 26420
TOTAL VOTES------------------109446

Matches Completely Correct - 17
Matches Partially Correct - 14
Matches Completely Wrong - 0

What Happened - MGS4 dominates, and Portal beats out Bioshock in a close battle for second. Portal started strong, and Bioshock stayed too consistent to take advantage of Portal's bad day vote. LBP ends up a good distance behind the others as well.

Why it Happened - We've seen in the character contest that Portal has a dedicated fanbase here, and it showed that once again by beating Bioshock. MGS4 looks good here too, and LBP once again looks bad being in the same poll with it.

What Will Happen - MGS4 looks good to get out of the division with a performance like that.

Crew Prediction Challenge - 4 people get points.

Tran - 19
Guest - 18
HM - 17
Moltar - 15
Leon - 13
Ed - 13
Lopen - 13

Crew Accuracy Challenge - HM gets the point for MGS4, Moltar gets the point for Portal, Lopen gets the point for Bioshock and LBP

Moltar - 30
HM - 30
Tran - 21
Guest (Luster, Zylo (3), HaRR, Kleenex (2), Soul, TRT, KP (3), Chaotic, Ngamer, GfK, Trout) - 16
Leon - 15
Lopen - 15
Ed - 13
Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 32 - Bracket: Fallout 3 > H3 - Vote: ME (87/124)
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 1:15:48 PM | message detail | filter | #165
Argh, Lopen's caught up to me in both categories!
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/8/2009 1:35:25 PM | message detail | filter | #166
ZFS | Posted 5/8/2009 5:26:16 PM | message detail | filter | #167
Top of the Accuracy Challenge complete

Time to take back the lead on the predix !

a metal slime appears
transients | Posted 5/8/2009 5:29:12 PM | message detail | filter | #168
damn you Galaxy for not giving me a two point lead
Lopen | Posted 5/8/2009 7:10:51 PM | message detail | filter | #169
And on the morrow I shall overtake you, foolish Tetris supporter! Ha ha ha ha...
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
Lopen | Posted 5/8/2009 7:14:32 PM | message detail | filter | #170
PS The accuracy challenge is a sham. You notice how the top three are the members of the crew who don't extend their predictions to the hundredths place !!

Tie abuse no thanks.
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
transients | Posted 5/8/2009 7:25:01 PM | message detail | filter | #171
I think I've tied for a point like once. I just don't care to add up hundredths of a percent to make it equal 100!
Lopen | Posted 5/8/2009 7:28:35 PM | message detail | filter | #172
140 points vs 124 entrants so far

16 bonus points have been awarded. All to the top three and maybe the ocassional guest. Just sayin it's not as lopsided as it looks on paper in reality...!
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 7:35:48 PM | message detail | filter | #173
Lopen | Posted 5/8/2009 7:37:59 PM | message detail | filter | #174
Indeed. Don't forget Ed Bellis and almighty GUEST!

4/7 of the crew members are not frauds that's good enough for me!
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/8/2009 7:41:02 PM | message detail | filter | #175
I agree, tied wins should only be worth 1/2 a point for the accuracy challenge. If you want to make sure you get full credit for your winning pick, you should use creative's x-stats calc to create a reasonable pred that equals 100%, IMO.

The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/8/2009 7:41:35 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #176
maybe you should start predicting with rounded percents like the cool guys then!
Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 32 - Bracket: Fallout 3 > H3 - Vote: ME (87/124)
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/8/2009 8:02:09 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #177
Division 1: Round 2 - Match 33 – Tetris vs. Donkey Kong vs. Mega Man 2 vs. Pac-Man

Moltar’s Analysis

Round 1 - 53.65% vs. Donkey Kong, Punch-Out and Space Invaders

Tetris dominates a pack of scrubs.

Donkey Kong
Round 1 - 19.82% vs. Tetris, Punch-Out and Space Invaders

Hey, DK not choking! That’s rare.

Mega Man 2
Round 1 - 34.79% vs. Pac-Man, Oregon Trail and Pong

MM2 with disappointing R1 numbers

Round 1 - 27.25% vs. Mega Man 2, Oregon Trail and Pong

Pac-Man does alright here.

woo round 2

I’m going to do something new here. From now until the end of the contest, I’m going to start off by stating what I have in my bracket, and why I picked it before the contest started. Here, I have MM2 > Tetris. I was thinking that Tetris would do alright against its group, and that MM2 would have no trouble with its group. With Tetris folding to anything with a name, including the Metroid series, and since I had faith in MM2, the match seemed easy.

Well two days into the contest and R2 already looked bad for me. Tetris went out and beat down its group harder than most expected. Yeah, DK, Punch-Out and Space Invaders are weak, but Tetris still looked great. However, what really hurt was MM2’s performance.

Mega Man 2 50.00%
Pac-Man 43.93%
The Oregon Trail 38.11%
Pong 32.22%

It being that close to those games makes it look awful. We know Pac-Man isn’t that strong, and we’ve already seen Pong get destroyed by Tetris. OT nearly at MM2.

MM2 does still have a shot at placing though. Pac-Man is another iconic series and COULD actually bring Tetris down here. Also knowing how weak Tetris’s pack was, putting it with MM2 and Pac-Man, two popular games that actually have some strength, can also bring it down drastically.

I’m not betting on that though. Tetris looked too good in Round 1 and MM2 did the opposite. Tetris shouldn’t have much trouble here, especially if it can SFF Pac-Man. MM2 takes second.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: MM2 > Tetris

Moltar’s Prediction is: Tetris: 38% - Mega Man 2: 30% - Pac-Man: 19% - Donkey Kong: 13%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Finally finished with round 1. The 2007 division was probably up there with this division as far as boring matches go. Those games are just too new to have real strength, with a few exceptions. Now we're back to the old school divisions with a whole lot less fodder to worry about, which can only mean good things.

Pre-contest, I didn't think too much of this match. Mega Man 2 just seemed like the clear pick -- it's a legitimately loved game, tons of people have played it, Mega Man has to get his strength from somewhere, etc., etc.

But then round 1 happened.

Tetris puts up 54% and Mega Man 2 can barely put up 35 against competition like Pac-Man and The Oregon Trail. Definitely one of the biggest disappointments of round 1. This doesn't spell good things for it today either, since Tetris is clearly looking like the stronger of the two coming in. You could argue that MM2's atrocious pic last round could make all the difference, but it's hard for me to see that being the case. I think it affected it, but not enough to go from disappointment to impressive.

For all that I'm down on MM2, though, I do think it'll hold up reasonably well today. I think Tetris will probably win without much trouble, but MM2 should do a whole lot better. I actually wouldn't be all that surprised if it managed to win, if only because we have no idea how their two round 1 packs really compare. I'm taking Tetris, but we'll see things go.

Tetris -- 36%
Mega Man 2 -- 32%
Pac-Man -- 20%
Donkey Kong -- 12%

Bracket: Mega Man 2 > Tetris
Favorites: Mega Man 2 > Tetris
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/8/2009 8:02:58 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #178
Lopen’s Analysis

Interesting fact #1: I correctly called Tetris to get ~50% on its competition last round.
Interesting fact #2: My bracket contains Mega Man 2 > Punch-Out!! in this match.

Put those together... and what does that mean? Simple. Despite Mega Man 2's huge flop last round, I'm not at all concerned for its chances to get first here. I firmly believe that Tetris, when encountered with games that more than 500 people actually give a damn about, will crumble to dust, relatively speaking. Enter Mega Man 2, and his buddy Bad Mr. Pac-Man Jones (who will be stronger than DK by a good margin).

Now, I expected Mega Man to be stronger than he was... so the percentage I expect Tetris to get here will be higher (I was expecting a low 20s/high teens performance, enough for Punch-Out!! to slip through)... however, the basic premise of what I believe will happen remains the same: Tetris loses a ton of its support. So while Pac-Man and Donkey Kong won't be escaping in second, you'd better believe Tetris doesn't get first place. Even assuming Mega Man's ceiling is 35% like he got last round... it might be enough. It doesn't hurt that MM2's coming off a more difficult fourpack.

There's also the fact that Mega Man 2 won't look like some white nerd from some cheesy 70s sci-fi flick. Meaning he'll probably be looking stronger here. That's what I consider the Solid **** of games pictures... I seriously would've voted against Mega Man 2 last round if it was against an NES game I liked almost as much... it got lucky it was against scrubs. I mean... even the infamously terrible box art would've been better than that... at least that might get nostalgia votes or something!

Lopen's Prediction:
Mega Man 2 – 34.01%
Tetris – 29.99%
Bad Bad Mr Pac-Man Jones – 21.00%
Donkey Kong – 15.00%

Transience’s Analysis

Tetris got 54% on a fodder fourpack. Mega Man got 35% on a slightly less but still foddery fourpack. It is difficult to argue for Mega Man to have a real chance at upending Tetris.

But I'm gonna do it anyway!

To start with, I don't trust Tetris. I see it as the Games version of Pac-Man the character - great when up against stuff nobody cares about, but flops hard when it hits a game with a fanbase. It's great at dissecting crap like Donkey Kong or Space Invaders, but Mega Man's a bit of a different beast. You can make the argument that Mega Man doesn't qualify based on its r1 performance and I'd buy it somewhat, but the character is a top 10 dude for a reason. Mega Man means something to people and Tetris may fall apart because of it.

On top of that, there's the competition. Donkey Kong, Pac Man and Tetris are all the same kind of arcade game - addicting arcade games that you play for a high score. They're time wasters. Fun as hell time wasters, but still time wasters. If there's a game that stands out here, it's Mega Man 2. I think this could help Mega Man 2 reverse a bad performance.

And then there's the picture. I don't buy into picture factor at *all*, but I can't dispute that MM2 looked worse than MM3. (I'll ignore MMX - that's a separate entity. But I would expect MM2 and 3 to be tied at the hip.) Mega Man is up on the effin' roof here. He's the only real platformer. There are no excuses this time.

Am I spinning this? Absolutely. But I'm taking the upset.

transience's prediction:

Mega Man 2 - 36%
Tetris - 35%
Pac-Man - 21%
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/8/2009 8:03:20 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #179
Leonhart’s Analysis

Tetris: Tetris ripped its first round fourpack apart worse than anyone was expecting, nabbing 53.65% of the vote, and after Mega Man 2’s mega bomb, it has established itself as the favorite for first in this match. One thing is certain: Both Tetris and Mega Man 2 are advancing. The only thing debatable is the order. Tetris definitely has the advantage for now, but some people blame Mega Man 2’s bad performance on the awful picture. I think the picture only matters so much in that scenario. I’m starting to realize how bad my bracket is nowadays because I keep picking against it now!

Donkey Kong: Donkey Kong almost got tripled by Tetris in round 1. That’s not good, no matter how you slice it. Sure, Tetris is a popular game, but the first Games Contest showed us it’s a midcarder at best. I fully expect DK to get dead last here by a wide margin, but it’ll be interesting to see what happens when you actually put four well-known old games together.

Mega Man 2: One of the biggest duds of the first round was Mega Man 2. We waited five years to see what one of the biggest snubs of the first Games Contest could do, and then we realized why it didn’t make the cut the first time. Seriously, Metroid was able to double up Pac-Man, and Mega Man 2 let it get 44% directly on it. That’s pathetic. Heck, it let the Oregon Trail get 38% on it. You better believe Tetris wouldn’t put up with this junk. Sure, Mega Man 2 had a tougher fourpack in the first round, but the difference shouldn’t be to the point that Tetris performs 20% better. I doubt MM2 gets utterly destroyed, but I don’t think it’s that close either.

Pac-Man: Pac-Man did pretty well last round, getting over 27% on a respectable (in relative terms in this cruddy division) fourpack and stayed relatively close to Mega Man 2. It’ll be kinda interesting to see if Pac-Man, Donkey Kong, and Tetris affect each other. I just have this feeling that they will, but in the end, it shouldn’t affect the placing of these games, so I guess it doesn’t really matter. I think Pac-Man finishes an easy third, well behind Mega Man 2 but well ahead of Donkey Kong.

Leonhart’s Vote: Mega Man 2 (More like Metal Blade 2)!

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Tetris – 36.17%
Donkey Kong – 12.57%
Mega Man 2 – 30.84%
Pac-Man – 20.42%

Ed Bellis’s Analysis

Welcome back. Where were we?

After looking at the Round 1 performances, this match seems suspiciously easy to call. Tetris impressed; Mega Man 2 didn’t. Donkey Kong looked… decent; Pac-Man… did better than expected. Really, the only game people will care about in this poll is Tetris, as Round One has indicated. It shouldn’t get nearly as high a percentage as it did earlier, but it will still win.

Prediction: flop, Mega Man, for everlasting peace
Tetris with 37.66%
Donkey Kong with 21.31 %
Mega Man 2 with 27.90%
Pac-Man with 13.13%
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/8/2009 8:04:02 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #180
Guest’s Analysis - nintendogirl1

Here it comes, round 2 has begun and from here the contest gets a lot more fun, a lot more pacy and a lot more interesting. The sub 10% blowouts should be gone with two notable exceptions, Monkey Island and Ninja Gaiden.

And starting the round off is a match which to my mind is more or less a coin toss for first place with the two last places also reasonably debatable.

Tetris is possibly the favourite going into the match, hitting over 53% in the first match of the Contest was very impressive while Mega Man 2 failed to hit 35% on its’ fourpack. People will probably be bringing up Tetris’ 2k4 percentage against Pong compared to Mega Man’s but I don’t see that there’s any real power in that, since Pong is again an apathy game, whilst Tetris is the King of that group.

Nevertheless, I don’t feel quite right just signing the win over to Tetris. It is the ultimate apathy game, against Space Invaders that is the definition überfodder and 2 games which to the majority of the site have no franchise power and no relevance in today’s world, despite the DK series churning out crappy games continuously and the Punch Out re-make being literally around the corner.

Yet it’s hard to say that Mega Man’s fourpack was any better. To be fair it didn’t have the sub 10% entrant which means there is that much less percentage to grab and it did have a truly gastly picture, but surely the picture can’t mean that much. Right?

At the heart of it, there are 2 reasons I can see for giving Mega Man 2 the win. The first is that my bracket says so, and I’m not willing to use that in any way shape or form. The second argument is the epic beatdown by Zelda that Tetris was on the ass end of in 2004. That’s the best thing Mega Man fans have in their corner, is Mega Man 2 strong enough to take a significant chunk of Tetris’ apathy votes? And ... I don’t think it is, so I’m turning my back on my bracket and going for Tetris to take the win.

As for third and fourth, if Tetris can massacre Mega Man or Pac-Man gets a rough ride from Tetris then that match becomes debatable. As it is, I think DK is destined to a relatively distant last place.

Again, mixing some percentages into that mess:

Tetris - 31.68%
Mega Man 2 - 27.51%
Pac Man - 23.84%
Donkey Kong - 16.95%

Crew Consensus: Tetris > MM2, though Lopen and Tran still like MM2 > Tetris
transients | Posted 5/8/2009 8:08:05 PM | message detail | filter | #181
puttin' my crew lead on the line!

DK overestimation jesus
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 8:08:21 PM | message detail | filter | #182
I agree with tranny and Lopen's logic concerning Tetris. Heck, that was why I had MM2 > Tetris in the first place, but after that round 1 performance, you can't convince me that MM2 is one of those games Tetris will collapse against. Pac-Man didn't, and it collapsed against Metroid, for cryin' out loud!
ZFS | Posted 5/8/2009 8:09:09 PM | message detail | filter | #183
Tran and Lopen Mega Man fanboyz representin'

a metal slime appears
transients | Posted 5/8/2009 8:09:13 PM | message detail | filter | #184
Tetris got like 25% or lower on Zelda 1. I just don't buy it beating a respectable franchise.

the question is whether or not Mega Man 2 is respectable.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 8:10:02 PM | message detail | filter | #185
I understand that logic. Again, that's why I had MM2 winning in the first place!

But I just don't believe MM2's fourpack is 20% better than Tetris's!
transients | Posted 5/8/2009 8:10:05 PM | message detail | filter | #186
Mega Man 2 top 5 game believe

Tetris top 20 game aw yeah division 8 rules
ZFS | Posted 5/8/2009 8:10:41 PM | message detail | filter | #187
SNES is where it's at

FFIV doin' this

a metal slime appears
transients | Posted 5/8/2009 8:12:41 PM | message detail | filter | #188
I am the red mage
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 8:17:01 PM | message detail | filter | #189
I casts the spells that makes the peoples fall down!

Wait, wrong reference.
ZFS | Posted 5/8/2009 8:17:23 PM | message detail | filter | #190
Red Mage no chance against the Dark Knight

a metal slime appears
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/8/2009 11:18:37 PM | message detail | filter | #191
Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup

Memo to SB: when you group together the same kind of games with the same kind of fanbases from the same system, the result is exactly the opposite of what you told us you wanted out of this Contest. Yesterday's PS3 shooterfest resulted in only 109k votes, the least of the season so far... and then today's 360 shooter/wrpg-fest is going to result in a truly pathetic sub-103k total. For cripes' sake, even the old arcade/8-bit games that no one has cared about for 10 years managed 115k! To solve this problem for the next game contest, you could, gee wiz, NOT DIVIDE THE BRACKET BY ERAS! Sorry, just had to get that off my chest. I'll say one thing about today though- I was wrong about all the LFF resulting in a trendless 24 hours. H3 finally pulled out the kind of fantastic Bungie ASV we'd been expecting all Contest, which was especially impressive in this case since it had to share the poll with three other options that have a big time presence on the 360. Not much to say about this one aside from that; L4D did pretty decent and ME looked a little gross, but WRPG SFF kind of gets it off the hook.

For tonight let me just say, I absolutely adore the match pic! This format allows our artists soooo much more freedom than trying to cram everything into those skinny vertical rectangles, and you can see how much the product is improved by giving them that extra breathing room. I've heard people saying that DK or Pac is going to collapse in this one, but with perfect, super-nostalgic pictures of their most popular levels like that I just can't see it. MM2 is also vastly improved from last round (though it would have been hard to get any worse), but I don't think it catches the eye quite like the bottom two. As for Tetris, ehh, I think it would have done better with a screen of the blocks actually dropping rather than that title screen.

Pic aside, the case for Mega Man in this one is that it has a more "hardcore" fanbase than these other ancient options and also that it stands out as the only game with semi-"modern" gameplay unlike the arcade options. And for the most part I buy into that argument. Where I disagree is when folks start claiming that Tetris is sure to fold against any kind of respectable competition. In a 1v1 setting, sure, but it seems to me that "joke appeal" wasn't the only reason L-Block was so successful in this 4way format. Part of his great run needs to be tied back to what an independent and un-LFFable entrant he was, something that Tetris should have going for it as well- when it gets to a choice between Zelda 1 and Mario 1 and Tetris, I could see a good chunk of voters jumping on the "anti-Nintendo" option, especially when it doesn't have to split its Game Boy appeal with anyone while MM2/Mario/Zelda all fight over the NES.

I'm getting a little ahead of myself here, but suffice it to say that even though MM2 should redeem itself with a slightly better showing in this one (signalling good things for MM3!), I fully expect Tetris to show us that last round was no fluke by taking this match going away. And as mentioned, the pic probably helps the bottom two options not get totally blown out. Which would result in

Tetris - 37.20%
Mega Man 2 - 30.46%
Pac-Man - 18.65%
Donkey Kong - 13.69%

Looks... okay, I guess!

The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 11:18:58 PM | message detail | filter | #192
Not a bad guess, NGamer!

Aw yeah, separation from Lopen
transience | Posted 5/8/2009 11:27:46 PM | message detail | filter | #193
I knew it was stretching it to back MM2 here, but at least it hasn't gotten killed... yet.
"Actually, fire didn't make Sephiroth awesome. Sephiroth made fire awesome." -Karma Hunter
Lopen | Posted 5/9/2009 5:27:34 AM | message detail | filter | #194
Gragh wry Mega Man 2 wry.
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/9/2009 1:40:45 PM | message detail | filter | #195
I'm very interested to see the write-ups for tonight. This is one of my most anticipated round 2 matches.
Lopen | Posted 5/9/2009 1:52:51 PM | message detail | filter | #196
Yeah, I'm pretty interested in it too. I think I've got a pretty unique take on it, so it'll be interesting to see what the fellow crewers are gonna be doing here.

(Which is to say SMB > Ninja Gaiden two rounds in a row...? WHO KNOWS.)
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/9/2009 4:57:21 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #197
Fallout 3-------37.61% 38566
Halo 3----------26.98% 27663
Left 4 Dead---20.44% 20958
Mass Effect---14.97% 15353
TOTAL VOTES-------102540

Matches Completely Correct - 18
Matches Partially Correct - 14
Matches Completely Wrong - 0

What Happened - Wow voters don't care for these newer games. Also Fallout 3 easily takes first, and Halo 3 has no trouble taking 2nd. Woo no end of Round 1 curse here.

Why it Happened - Just going by the GotY polls, Fallout 3 was the strongest game here, and L4D and Mass Effect didn't look as strong as Halo, which was somewhat validated by CoD4.

What Will Happen - MGS4/Portal/Fallout 3/Halo 3, after seeing them all in action, the pre-contest predicted result looks the same.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Points for all except Ed.

Tran - 20
Guest - 19
HM - 18
Moltar - 16
Leon - 14
Lopen - 14
Ed - 13

Crew Accuracy Challenge - HM gets the point for Fallout 3 and Halo 3, Leon gets the point for L4D, and Tran gets the point for ME.

HM - 32
Moltar - 30
Tran - 22
Guest (Luster, Zylo (3), HaRR, Kleenex (2), Soul, TRT, KP (3), Chaotic, Ngamer, GfK, Trout) - 16
Leon - 16
Lopen - 15
Ed - 13
Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 33 - Bracket: MM2 > Tetris - Vote: Tetris (91/128)
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/9/2009 8:19:33 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #198
Division 1: Round 2 - Match 34 – Super Mario Bros. vs. Ninja Gaiden vs. The Legend of Zelda vs. Metroid

Moltar’s Analysis

Super Mario Bros.
Round 1 - 70.54% vs. Ninja Gaiden, Duck Hunt and Galaga

Wow, 70% in four-ways.

Ninja Gaiden
Round 1 - 12.58% vs. Super Mario Bros., Duck Hunt and Galaga

You know it’s sad when 12.58% gets you into Round 2.

Legend of Zelda
Round 1 - 61.28% vs. Metroid, Contra and Dragon Warrior III

Zelda has no problems with this group.

Round 1 - 18.63% vs. Legend of Zelda, Contra and Dragon Warrior III

The Metroid fans are able to keep it from getting SFF’d hard enough to lose in R1.

I have Zelda 1 > SMB in my bracket. It’s obvious that these two are the strongest games in the division, and I figured the Zelda series is stronger than the SMB series, so it would win the battle of the firsts here.

Now that we’ve seen them both in action, the match is a lot more questionable. Both sides have valid reasons to beat the other. Here’s what I’ve gathered.

Advantages for Super Mario Bros.
- SMB gets respect
- SMB has a higher playrate
- Booker T: RESPECT!!
- SMB3 vs. Zelda 1 - 57% to 43%, and SMB may not be that much weaker than 3.
- IT’S
- 70% in Round 1, beat expectations

Advantages for The Legend of Zelda
- Likely is stronger indirectly
- 61% on stronger pack, lived up to expectations
- King of Nintendo SFF, usually beats Mario
- Series preferred by the younger generation, which helps if it’s close.
- Swordz

Clearly, there is no clear winner here. Clearly.

Since a coin-flip just sounds too unprofessional, I guess I’ll stick with my bracket here. Zelda feels like the safe bet and if it comes down to Zelda vs. Mario, Zelda wins that. I wouldn’t be surprised to see SMB win here though, as it’s one of the most respected games in the bracket, and if any game can make a voter go, “These other games are good, but man, I can’t vote against _________.”, it’s Super Mario Bros.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: LoZ > SMB

Moltar’s Prediction is: LoZ: 42% - SMB: 40% - Metroid: 11% - Ninja Gaiden: 7%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Here's one of the more anticipated matches of round 2, and probably the one that determines how the rest of this division plays out.

First off, let's get Ninja Gaiden and Metroid out of the way -- these two are total non-factors in this match. You could argue which game Metroid hurts more by being here, but I don't think it makes much difference unless the result is super close and Metroid takes up around 10%, then you could make a case that one game might have been hurt worse than the other. Still, trying to make that argument beforehand is sketchy at best.

The real meat of this match, and the division, is what happens between Mario and Zelda. I'm not sure who all favors what right now; it seems fairly split down the middle with good arguments on both sides. You have Mario 1 being the game that's aged better, is in more people's minds (NSMB), has the 'respect' vote for saving the game industry, and has a nearly 100% play rate. On the other hand, you have Zelda, a series that's on the top of the food chain as far as the Nintendo pecking order goes; also has been widely played; and scored about 43% on Super Mario Bros. 3 back in 2k4. Not a bad resume.
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/9/2009 8:19:50 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #199
It's a tough choice, but my gut tells me that Mario 1 is going to take this. It's not necessarily because of their round 1 performances, but just because Mario feels right here. If you ask people which game they prefer between the two, I think most would say SMB. It's classic in every sense of the word, is still very playable and fun today, and has very few people who don't like it. The only thing I worry about here is that franchise voting could make all the difference, and I can see people siding with Zelda 1 just because it's Zelda.

Then again, the ol' 'IT'S FREAKING MARIO' probably applies here more than it does to any other Mario game. This should be a fun match, and whoever wins it shouldn't be by much more than 5% or so. I took Zelda in my bracket, but I'm gonna side with Mario here, partly out of favoritism, partly because the arguments for it make a little more sense. Plus, Zelda hasn't exactly lit this contest on fire so far -- but then again, Galaxy just got stomped by Call of Duty 4, so who knows!

Super Mario Bros. -- 43%
Legend of Zelda -- 39%
Metroid -- 11%
Ninja Gaiden -- 7%

Bracket: Zelda 1 > Mario 1
Favorites: Mario 1 > Zelda 1

Lopen’s Analysis

After seeing yesterday's debacle, I realize that this match is going to be all about one thing: Respect, and overall playrate. As I see it, not enough NES gamers still exist on this site. I'd expect, at most, 70% of the site has been exposed to the NES at this point, emulators included. Therefore, to a point it's not really about which game people like, but rather, which game people know and respect.

So while Legend of Zelda is Zelda... I think Super Mario Brothers 1 will have it trumped here. I mean... SMB1 pretty much made console gaming, and while I doubt more than 75% of the site has played it in this day and age, it's enough to trounce Legend of Zelda and these other two scrubs rather easily.

Respect and playrate. SMB1 will win both of these categories with authority, and this'll be enough to win the match. That 30% swing vote goes to SMB1 in overwhelming fashion, and makes what you might expect to be a close match on paper an Ulti-style blowout in practice.

Lopen's Prediction:
SMB1 – 45.09%
Legend of Zelda – 33.35%
Metroid – 13.57%
Ninja Gaiden – 7.99%

Transience’s Analysis

I've got a funny feeling about Mario here.

I feel like the average gamer is more familiar with Mario 1 than Zelda 1. I feel like the average gamer thinks Mario 1 has aged better than Zelda 1. (I disagree by far, but I can't deny that most people feel Zelda's come a long way while Mario is pretty much the same as it's ever been.) I know that most people feel Mario 1 is more important and influential than Zelda 1. Mario 1 just strikes me as being more popular at this point than Zelda. I get this odd feeling that it might outdo Mario 3's 2004 performance just because Zelda 1 is not something modern gamers are that into.

Then there's the facts: that huge 70% performance in round 1. Zelda's was similarly big but I didn't expect Mario 1 to be able to go that high. There's Mario 1 doing better than Zelda 1 on The List. Metroid 1 probably overlaps with Zelda 1 more than Mario 1. (though this doesn't matter much.) I think the biggest one, though, is that I picked Zelda 1 in my bracket because I couldn't picture two equal Mario and Zelda titles going to Mario. But after seeing Zelda games actually falter in round 1 of this contest, I feel better and better about Mario 1 being able to stand up and win. It just strikes me as more logical.

I'm looking forward to this one! go Zelda

transience's prediction:

Metroid - 10%
Ninja Gaiden - 8%
Super Mario Bros. - 44%
The Legend of Zelda - 38%
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/9/2009 8:20:35 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #200
Leonhart’s Analysis

Super Mario Bros.: Here’s one of my most anticipated round 2 matches right here. Seeing how the progenitors of the two biggest Nintendo franchises will fare against one another will be interesting. In terms of series, Zelda has the edge, BUT we’ve already seen that the namesake along won’t cut it. SMB1 and Zelda 1 have proven that they have legit strength after we’ve watched Yoshi’s Island, Galaxy, Majora’s Mask, and Wind Waker perform poorly in round one. I’m taking Mario 1 for the win here. These are basically THE Nintendo games after Mario 3, so you couldn’t ask for a better heavyweight duel this early. I think Mario 1 can edge out Zelda 1 due to the respect factor. Yeah, I’m playing the “It’s friggin’ MARIO 1!” card. What are you gonna do about it? Laugh if I’m wrong? Well, yeah, I guess.

Ninja Gaiden: Mario 1, Zelda 1, Metroid 1, Ninja Gaiden. Which of these games does not belong? Yeah, this one. I mean, it could barely get 10% when Mario 1 was the only game worth anything in the match. How low will it get when you’ve got two high midcard NES games and a decent NES game? Yeah, this is gonna get ugly.

The Legend of Zelda: I’m thinking Zelda 1 is the favorite here in the Guru, and it probably will be with the Crew as well. I can’t blame anyone for picking it. It’s got a lot in its favor. It’s already a proven commodity with 43% on Mario 3, which I can’t say for certainty Mario 1 could do indirectly. However, I bet it would be close. I’d pick Mario 1 over FFI, which managed to nab 40% on Mario 3 itself, so you’ve got those three games in the same general range. Man, how awesome would it be to have Mario 1, Zelda 1, and FFI in the same match? That match would be nuts. Anyway, I’ve already said I’ve got Zelda 1 taking second, but this match should be good. Don’t make this one boring by SFFing Mario 1 now!

Metroid: Can a double-SFF’d Metroid still beat Ninja Gaiden? That’s the only question worth considering in this match? I say yes because who seriously votes for Ninja Gaiden in this situation? Zelda 1 and Mario 1 are going to be taking up 80-85% of the votes by themselves, I’d wager, so you’re just getting down to the hardcore of the hardcore fans of both games. I figure Metroid’s got more of them in this situation. But it’d be nice to have another Persona 4/Street Fighter IV all-day, back-and-forth girl-slap fest between two games struggling for 10%!

Leonhart’s Vote: *whistles Mario Bros. theme*

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Super Mario Bros. – 42.44%
Ninja Gaiden – 3.75%
The Legend of Zelda – 42.40%
Metroid – 11.41%

Guest’s Analysis - Luster Soldier

First round performance

Super Mario Bros. - 1st place with 70.54%
Ninja Gaiden - 2nd place with 12.58%
Eliminated - Duck Hunt (3rd place with 10.61%) and Galaga (4th place with 6.26%)

The Legend of Zelda - 1st place with 61.28%
Metroid - 2nd place with 18.63%
Eliminated - Contra (3rd place with 12.70%) and Dragon Warrior III (4th place with 7.40%)

This shall be our first good round 2 match, to see how Mario 1 stacks up against Zelda 1. We know that Mario 1 and Zelda 1 will be advancing, but in what order? Either possibility has a very fair chance of happening and I'm expecting the rest of the Crew to be somewhat split on this match, but who knows.

Pre-contest, our expectations of Mario 1 was that it would be significantly weaker than Mario 3, much like how Zelda 1 would be a lot weaker than OoT. This was based on an old "favorite Super Mario game" poll: