GameFAQs Contests


Best Game Ever 2 Contest Analysis Crew (Part Three)

Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/17/2009 3:40:03 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #451
Super Mario 64---------------------------------40.42% 46106
Castlevania: Symphony of the Night-------14.67% 16734
Chrono Trigger---------------------------------37.59% 42881
Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island----------7.33% 8359
TOTAL VOTES-----------------------------------------114080

Matches Completely Correct - 24
Matches Partially Correct - 16
Matches Completely Wrong - 0

What Happened - Super Mario 64 doesn't just do well against Chrono Trigger. It flat out beats it, even with another Mario game in the poll.

Why it Happened - SM64 was OoT'd back in 2004, so we never got to see what it truly was capable of. Back then, it probably wasn't strong enough to take on CT, but the site has gotten more Nintendo-friendly over the years. Both CT and SM64 in relation to SotN also prove that SM64 is really freakin' strong.

What Will Happen - FF7/GE/SM64/CT - Who's going to resist SFF more, SM64 (from Goldeneye) or CT (from FF7)?

Crew Prediction Challenge - hey no points

Tran - 25
Guest - 24
HM - 24
Moltar - 21
Leon - 19
Lopen - 18
Ed - 18

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Lopen gets the point for CT, GfK gets the point for Mario 64 and SotN, and Tran gets the point for YI

HM - 39
Moltar - 38
Tran - 28
Ed - 20
Lopen - 20
Guest (Luster, Zylo (3), HaRR, Kleenex (2), Soul, TRT, KP (3), Chaotic, Ngamer, GfK (3), Trout, BDawg (2), Luis) - 21
Leon - 18
Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 41 - Bracket: MGS > MM - Vote: MGS (131/192)
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 3:57:29 PM | message detail | filter | #452
Looks like HM gets the GS point with his 15% prediction. That was the game we didn't give enough credit here.
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/17/2009 8:42:43 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #453
Division 5: Round 2 - Match 42 – Final Fantasy VIII vs. Starcraft vs. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs. Final Fantasy IX

Moltar’s Analysis

Final Fantasy VIII
Round 1 - 43.91% vs. Starcraft, Soul Calibur and Xenogears

holy crap FF8

Round 1 - 27.89% vs. Final Fantasy VIII, Soul Calibur and Xenogears

Yeah, this ain’t 2004 anymore

Ocarina of Time
Round 1 - 53.79% vs. Final Fantasy IX, Half-Life and Chrono Cross

The battle between it and FF7 to out-do each other continues on

Final Fantasy IX
Round 1 - 21.33% vs. Ocarina of Time, Half-Life and Chrono Cross

FF9 with a pretty good performance.

I have OoT > FF8 in my bracket. I had Half-Life in this match, and I figured the PC split between it and Starcraft would allow FF8 to cruise to a victory. Well, FF9 is here instead, but does that mean that it’ll be Starcraft cruising to victory with the FF8/FF9 split?

This is a similar situation to the latter. FF8 looks to be very strong, while FF9 looks to be a bit below that. In the first poll, FF4 crushed FF1 because “who cares” for FF1. In the second poll, RBY and GS, both strong games, are in a 58/42 split (or around that) because both games have good playrates and have fanbases that legitimately like them.

FF8 and FF9 should have a similar relationship. FF8 isn’t going to SFF FF9 into the ground, but it doesn’t need to in order to take second. OoT going to be taking up 40% of the votes, and I’m guessing that Starcraft’s loyal fanbase are worth about 20% here. Therefore there’s some wiggle from for FF8 to land.

Honestly, Starcraft straight up bombed last round. This isn’t like Mario World where it was already stronger than the FF games that split. It’s far weaker than FF8 (and FF9 I’d wager), and it would probably take a near- 50/50 split in order for it to beat FF8. Even Majora’s Mask is still only getting 45% on RBY with GS in the poll, and FF8 is going to be the stronger game in the split.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: OoT > FF8

Moltar’s Prediction is: OoT: 42% - FFVIII: 23% - Starcraft: 20% - FFIX: 15%

Lopen’s Analysis

Let me tell ya somethin. Ignore all your x-stats, all your match results, your theories on. Just know this: What we have in this match is the essence of The Man. Starcraft takes on the system, the enemy that an increasingly large sect of GameFAQs has grown to despise. The same sect that propelled L-Block to victory, that allowed Solid Snake to beat down Cloud.

Now I'm not going to say this elite group always votes against The Man but on this day, the disgust, for them, will be too great. Not one, but two Final Fantasy games. And Zelda. Too much to bear, the hatred wells up inside them. We saw it earlier this round, when SMW defeated FF4+FF1 by more than it defeated FF1 alone. Why do you think this happened? Two FF games... it unleashed the anti-voting beast within. Now think, this time not only do we have two FF games, but we also have the most hated FF game there, and Zelda acting as the proclamation... “yes, The Man is definitely here!”

Fueled by hate, Starcraft thrashes the opposition. Oh, it doesn't hurt that FFIX has huge picture advantage to help the split be less lopsided. Not that Starcraft cares, as the HATE FUEL will make it much stronger than last round. So powerful, that it will defeat both of the enemies combined! Let the snowball of malice form here and destroy GameFAQs! Ha ha ha ha... HA HA HA HA!

Lopen's prediction:
Ocarina of Time – 39.03%
Starcraft – 30.61%
Final Fantasy VIII – 17.27%
Final Fantasy IX – 13.09%
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/17/2009 8:43:01 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #454
Transience’s Analysis

Today, we're seeing a 64/36 match between Pokemon RBY and Majora's Mask turn into a 55/45ish one thanks to the addition of another Pokemon game. What happens when this happens with a far more independent fanbase being the last game in the mix?

Starcraft lost 62-38 last round to FF8, but FF9 is bound to hurt it good. It's the second worst game FF8 could have drawn after FF7. I don't think FF9 lies down here -- it's got a pretty resilient fanbase, and while it may not be the biggest thing out there it's not going to get beat into the ground by the superior FF8. Starcraft has a real argument here.

The elephant in the room here is Ocarina of Time. We're about to see just how strong Ocarina is compared to second-tier FF titles. If Ocarina takes up 50% of the vote -- something that's very possible -- then all Starcraft needs is something like 20% to advance. Do you really trust that fanbase to not get to 20%?

My answer is... yes. I don't really think Starcraft is anything near where others do. I think it's about equal to Diablo 2, and we saw how that did in round 1: a bare win over perennial flop Halo. Starcraft isn't important now like it was in 2004. It won't get rallies because nobody cares. Starcraft's matches were huge in 2004, every one of them. But now? It's barely even notable. This year, that game is Pokemon or Mario 64 or maybe even World of Warcraft. But it's not Starcraft, not at all. I think Starcraft could really bomb here -- maybe even enough to fall into fourth place.

The other big question here is OOT's pack vs. FF7's. I say that Ocarina's pack is tougher by a good bit. If it approaches FF7's percentage, I'll say that OOT deserves #1 status until FF7 gives us reason to doubt it. Of course, that's not going to matter since there'll almost definitely be another Nintendo game in the pack. Yay fourways!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Vivi vs. Squall
Starcraft is a messy blob
Link just dominates

transience's prediction:

Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 46%
Final Fantasy 8 - 23%
Starcraft - 16%
FInal Fantasy 9 - 15%

Leonhart’s Analysis

Final Fantasy VIII: Are you ready for the Perfect Storm to continue? I know I am! Whoo, and this time, the squall is gonna kick the blizzard out of here for good! Now, we saw that Final Fantasy VIII easily dispatched of StarCraft the last time despite Xenogears’ presence. I know that Final Fantasy IX is going to cause much more trouble in the overlap department, and that does give me cause for concern after seeing that happened with FFIV and FFI. However, the difference there is that Super Mario World was stronger than both of them before LFF anyway. Not so for StarCraft. Going by raw strength, I think it’s the weakest game in the poll. I’d take FFIX to advance over StarCraft if FFVIII weren’t here, honestly. Now we’ve seen weaker characters take advantage of an LFF situation to advance (Mewtwo in Cloud/Squall/Sora immediately pops to mind, but that was a rare triple whammy), but those are rare occurrences indeed, and most of the time, it was close the round before. Even then, those characters didn’t win by much (Liquid beating out Luigi with Bowser, for example). FFVIII/StarCraft was 62/38 last round (and it’s even more if FFVIII/Xenogears had any sort of LFF), so that’s gonna be a bit too much to make up. Whoops, did I rant a bit too much here?

StarCraft: I think I’ve already said my fill about why I don’t think/hope StarCraft advances here, but if there’s one thing this game has in its corner, it’s the intangible X-Factor. You can’t predict what this game might do. Blizzard has a history of some weird stuff. Of course, it could also take advantage of some severe LFF if the split between FFVIII and FFIX is much more even than not. Argh, I’m getting nervous just typing this. Please win, FFVIII.
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/17/2009 8:43:50 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #455
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time: What, Ocarina of Time is in this match? Who cares what this game does anyway? I don’t know what it’s going to do here. This is better competition than last round, but there’s also major LFF going on here between two Final Fantasy games. We saw what Mario World did with that. Of course, I think SMW also put the SFF hammer to Mega Man 3 at the same time, and Ocarina of Time sure ain’t doin’ that to StarCraft. Hmmm…I wonder if FFVIII and FFIX combined can outdo Ocarina of Time? Probably not, but it’d be cool if they did!

Final Fantasy IX: Just have the decency to roll over and die, and let FFVIII advance here! You know you have no chance to survive make your time! I know this sicko FFIX fans are going to be gloating if this game somehow costs FFVIII the win! Can’t we all just get along? Now I know why Final Fantasy lost the Series Contest! Too much cross-game disputing! Oh well, at least the better FF will come out on top, one way or the other!

Leonhart’s Vote: Final Fantasy VIII! Perfect storm, here we come!

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Final Fantasy VIII – 22.11%
StarCraft – 18.00%
Ocarina of Time – 44.39%
Final Fantasy IX – 15.50%

Guest’s Analysis - The Real Truth

Time to keep things short again.

Ocarina of Time wins this. Even if FF8 had any kind of weird outside chance, FF9 will sap some of its votes. What did Xenogears get? Let's see...12.8%. Alright, I'm taking FF9 to get less than that. I actually did really well with predicting where FF8 would land last round. This is a 4 way match guys, you do remember that yes? With more options to choose from, games that don't both popular and have a die hard fan-base, tend to not do so well. That and, the last games contest was 5 years ago. That and, even today, you could have the same match tomorrow and you would get different results than today. Why? Because the same exact people are not coming to the site, every single day.

I just had to rant. So much for keeping it short.

OoT takes first. I have Starcraft in my bracket, because I expected something like that to happen. It's one of the few things I've done well with this contest. I've been debating about who I think will take second. I think this could end up really close. What will be close? Well Starcraft and FF8 might, but honestly, watch FF8 come within 8% of OoT and people go insane.

I'll go against my bracket here-

Final Fantasy 8 - 32%
Starcraft - 18%
Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 41%
Final Fantasy 9 - 9%

Other than FF9 bombing, I'm not sure what to expect. FF9 may do slightly better, but I don't expect it to break 12.8% which is what Xenogears had in a stronger division (OoT aside, obviously). I'm tempted to give FF8 or OoT a few more % at the expensive of Starcraft, but then I feel Starcraft would be too low.

Crew Consensus: Aside from Lopen, the Crew backs OoT > FF8
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 8:50:22 PM | message detail | filter | #456
Oh man, two hours left until the Perfect Storm continues!
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/17/2009 8:52:21 PM | message detail | filter | #457
Yeah, FFIX is gonna prove itself once and for all!

LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 8:53:03 PM | message detail | filter | #458
Prove itself inferior, taking its rightful place beneath Final Fantasy VIII!
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/17/2009 8:54:15 PM | message detail | filter | #459
Not with that match pic! Vivi is packin' heat!

LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 8:54:52 PM | message detail | filter | #460
Squall's faced the heat before, and the one who dared throw fire in his face got scarred for life!
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/17/2009 8:55:45 PM | message detail | filter | #461
Vivi is already scarred for life. He's immune!

(wait, which scarred did you mean exactly)

LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 8:56:49 PM | message detail | filter | #462
Ed Bellis | Posted 5/17/2009 9:08:19 PM | message detail | filter | #463
Match 41

Ocarina of Time gets first, obviously. BUT WHAT HAPPENS NEXT HRMRMRMRMRM

After last round, it seems like FF8 is the favorite to get second. But wait !! It will have to split votes with FF9, which might – if today’s Pokemanz split is any indication – prevent it from placing, which could see a Starcraft placement.

…but that won’t happen. Starcraft looked so bad last round that I’m considering taking for last over an SFFed FF9. (I won’t, though.)

Prediction: listen to compression of time imo
Final Fantasy VIII with 27.06%
StarCraft with 21.05%
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time with 35.88%
Final Fantasy IX with 16.01%

ed status: i'll lose to FASTFALCON on my own time
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 9:42:27 PM | message detail | filter | #464
Man, if FFVIII can get that close to OoT with FFIX there, I'd call it the third strongest game on the site!
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/17/2009 10:07:15 PM | message detail | filter | #465
Well I hope the Best. Game. Ever. dominates, and Final Fantasy IX gets last. After that, I don't really care about StarCraft/FF8 now (because both games are in the same tier quality; very, very good but not quite Best. Game. Ever.). Part of me wants to back the ultimate love story against StarCraft, but that's just my inner Squall, perhaps. My prediction for the match after that will actually end up here (I'm the guest for Final Fantasy X's match, ha!). But here's the match in a nutshell.

Prediction: Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Final Fantasy VIII
Bracket: Zelda: Ocarina of Time > StarCraft
Favorites: Zelda: Ocarina of Time > StarCraft
Favorites Bracket: Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Half-Life

The adventure with the cool cutscenes and awesome atmosphere (aka the Best. Game. Ever.) will shoot for 40%, the ultimate love story for 25%, the greatest multiplayer PC title for 20%, and true 3d Final Fantasy (that is, with medieval setting) for 15%.
transience | Posted 5/17/2009 10:11:23 PM | message detail | filter | #466
the only argumment for Starcraft is apparently some anti-GameFAQs group that's voting against THE MAN.

we're in for a boring one tonight!
"Actually, fire didn't make Sephiroth awesome. Sephiroth made fire awesome." -Karma Hunter
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/17/2009 10:13:06 PM | message detail | filter | #467

Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup

Oh man, what an incredible run Mario has been on lately. The SMW result was nuts, yes, but I've got to think this showing from Mario 64 makes even LESS sense. I mean think about it... CT put up 70.30% directly on Yoshi's Island last time around. Sure SMW1 >> SMW2, but you'd have to figure CT could have pushed that toward 75 if not for drawing such terrible opponents (two other SNES RPGs, both with dedicated fanbases = yikes). But today the sore thumb turned around and was pointing back in CT's direction- no other RPGs, dual Mario options that would surely have users anti-voting the series (as they did FF the other day); in short the perfect storm for a great showing. But not only does it lose, Mario 64's currently scoring 51.84% on it directly! Combined the two Mario games are putting up 55.97% on CT- I guess it wouldn't be all that shocking given Mario/Crono '05 and how much everything CT might have fallen off since then, but boy does it ever look weird in the light of that R1 performance. Luckily for Chrono, Goldeneye is showing up to limit Mario's damage next round... although will FF7 crush CT so bad that it won't even matter? That result is completely up in the air after seeing this IMO- not even an outright GE advancement would shock me!

Regarding tonight, after RBY put up 51% you may have seen me playing around with some numbers in this topic trying to find a way for MM to pull back ahead in R2 until I eventually gave up (because I couldn't see G/S/C holding up well enough to make it possible). After all the nonsensical stuff this last week though, I just don't know anymore... Mario World made a huge boost on its R1 percentage thanks to voters rebelling against a half-Final Fantasy poll... perhaps Majora could likewise hold up better than we expect if people decide to vote against Pokemon? If Mario can do it we surely shouldn't count Zelda out entirely, especially now that its the only N64 option in the poll rather than just 1 of 3.

The trouble with that theory is how MGS is the much better anti-Nintendo/anti-Pokemon magnet, and since it was able to jettison all of the mature/PSX competition that held it back in R1, I AM counting on Snake doing the near-impossible and improving on his R1 percentage against stronger competition. Still though, I could see the Zelda name doing an okay job of attracting the non-Pokemon votes as well, and as I result I think Majora ought to be able to keep this closer to Red than most are expecting (though the end result will probably never be in doubt). Also, I get the impression that Gold will do a better job of avoiding SFF and Last Place Factor than people are giving it credit for- just a hunch, but I'm going with it.

Long story short, I'll say...

Metal Gear Solid - 37.20%
Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow - 27.18%
The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - 22.36%
Pokemon Gold/Silver - 13.26%

Seems fairly okay, I think?

The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
Kaxon | Posted 5/17/2009 10:14:15 PM | message detail | filter | #468
Starcraft lost 62-38 last round to FF8, but FF9 is bound to hurt it good. It's the second worst game FF8 could have drawn after FF7. I don't think FF9 lies down here -- it's got a pretty resilient fanbase, and while it may not be the biggest thing out there it's not going to get beat into the ground by the superior FF8. Starcraft has a real argument here.

I think FF X would be a worse draw than FF IX, just because it's more popular. I wish I could vote for FF IX here, but I have to vote for Starcraft instead! Vivi looks pretty badass in that picture though.
I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/17/2009 10:24:24 PM | message detail | filter | #469
REACTION: Holy junk, the Pokemon Series with over 47% of the vote against the combined might of MGS and Zelda? In a match that's (somehow) going to draw over 130k votes and will possibly be the most popular poll of the season so far? This site is Pokemon-crazy!

But come on now MGS, you can't even manage 1/3 of the vote against what is essentially just two Nintendo games, even when you stand out like crazy in the match pic? For shame!

The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 10:33:51 PM | message detail | filter | #470
Why in the world are people expecting MGS to pull a SMW here? There's only so high MGS can go when it's facing two other games that are right around its strength and another decently strong game in Majora's Mask. It's only going to finish 4% lower than what it got last round despite the fourpack being significantly tougher. That's pretty good, I say.
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/17/2009 10:39:10 PM | message detail | filter | #471
Metal Gear Solid seems to be closer to what the x-stats project than what the list shows. That's just nuts (though according to the x-stats, MGS loses to HALF-LIFE)
transience | Posted 5/17/2009 10:40:18 PM | message detail | filter | #472
because MGS went from 3 PS1 games to 3 Nintendo games, two from the same series. I think it was a slightly disappointing performance.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 10:43:14 PM | message detail | filter | #473
But MGS just wasn't going to blow this pack out of the water or anything. Now if GS had folded like a house of cards, then maybe.
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/17/2009 10:52:03 PM | message detail | filter | #474
Well, Big Boss is weaker that Kirby normally, but that didn't stop him from blowing the puffball out of the water once a favorable Sore Thumb and favorable match pic situation arose. This was supposedly the strongest entry from Snake's series and yet it failed to capitalize on a likewise extremely favorable situation (I mean two of the match pics just say "Pokemon" for cripes' sakes!); I don't see how you can chalk that up as anything other that disappointing.

The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 10:52:32 PM | message detail | filter | #475
Well, Big Boss is weaker that Kirby normally

Prove it. Big Boss wins round 2 outright without Raiden there, I'd wager.
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/17/2009 11:24:48 PM | message detail | filter | #476
Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup

*please see above for brief MGS/MM/Pokemon thoughts*

Much like Majora vs R/B/Y, I'd given up hope for a reversed result in tonight's R2 match after seeing just how badly the underdog had been pounded in R1. Now though, I'm extremely nervous about my bracket's pick of Ocarina > FF8; let me count the ways:

* sure FF4 crunched FF1, but its now pretty clear that 1 relies almost entirely on its series recognition and cute sprites. against an opponent with an ACTUAL fanbase it's much much harder to inflict major SFF/LPF damage, as G/S/C is showing us today. between's 9's very vocal fanbase and its strong showing last round, I could see 8 having almost as hard a time as Red is at beating down its younger brother

* Mario 1, SMW, GE, Mario 64... every time pre-GameCube Nintendo has had a chance to stand on its own this round it has demolished our expectations, and I see no reason for Ocarina of Time to snap that trend. sure these other games are all strong, but this draw is just peachy in terms of allowing the biggest of the Zeldas to stand out from the competition, and that's a scary proposition- I think it's going to put up a big time number in this one by the time the smoke has cleared (especially since it should be able to rock this ASV)

* the higher OoT goes, the more I like SC's chances. yes yes, I realize that the whole "dedicated fanbase" factor is overblown, but even so, SC pulled 28 and DII did 27 and WoW did 24; I honestly don't think 20% is out of StarCraft's range, and if Ocarina goes wild that might be all it takes

* chuckle at Longshot Lopen all you want, but he has a point... there's a reason L-Block and Snake did so great in '07 and '08, and I do agree that being non-Zelda/FF/Mario options was a major part of why those bandwagons gained steam. and if that's a legit mindset for many voters, there could hardly be a more ideal rally proposition than getting to take down two Final Fantasy titles plus the most "overrated" Zelda of them all at the same time!

* wowza does Ocarina ever dominate that match pic. the adult version of Link everyone loves, the triforce, logo looking big and bold, man. and Vivi is rocking his coolest look as well. and yikes, StarCraft sportin' the coolest unit RTS unit in the world, the Archon! while FF8 looks like... well, garbage, honestly. I'm sure that's an awesome cut scene, but sorry, its comes out way too small to translate to a match pic

And finally...

* there's no way StarCraft loses a close match

Factoring in all those points, you can see why I'm so frightened that I have to pick against my bracket and say

The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 44.99%
StarCraft - 20.36%
Final Fantasy VIII - 20.35%
Final Fantasy IX - 14.30%

*hopes for a good one!*

The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 11:46:47 PM | message detail | filter | #477
You're about to see it lose a close match!
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/18/2009 12:09:45 AM | message detail | filter | #478
Hold up... you're claiming the guy who's worth 29% on Auron when he doesn't get a massive picture advantage is "naturally" stronger than the guy who beat Tidus with 57% of the vote? The character who managed 48% on Bowser the year that Bowser put up 49% on Snake is naturally weaker than Big Boss?

*head explodes*

Okay, believe that if you want, but the point is that Snake and MGS have always been excellent in 4ways and have done especially well when they could feast on Nintendo competition (see also: Liquid Snake vs Luigi/Bowser), so for MGS to lay an egg like that yesterday was just a bit underwhelming.

The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/18/2009 12:40:11 AM | message detail | filter | #479
And you can believe that Big Boss is still the guy who's worth 29% on Auron if you want, too. Big Boss would've beaten Kirby in round 2 without Raiden, and that was with an old man picture, not a Naked Snake one. Just remember that.

And you can blame it on the format if it makes you feel better.
transience | Posted 5/18/2009 12:42:14 AM | message detail | filter | #480
I'm with Leon here, but I think a lot of Big Boss's r2 performance had to do with his r1 picture, so eh.
"Actually, fire didn't make Sephiroth awesome. Sephiroth made fire awesome." -Karma Hunter
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/18/2009 12:46:49 AM | message detail | delete | filter | #481
Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow--------------26.27% 34755
The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask--21.58% 28558
Metal Gear Solid----------------------------33.22% 43960
Pokemon Gold/Silver----------------------18.93% 25043
TOTAL VOTES--------------------------------------132316

Matches Completely Correct - 25
Matches Partially Correct - 16
Matches Completely Wrong - 0

What Happened - The Poke-split allows for MGS to take first over Pokemon RBY.

Why it Happened - For a pack with 3 Nintendo games, MGS didn't do to great on this pack. Also, look at GS, it held up like a champ here. MM also looks much better here than in Round 1.

What Will Happen - RBY loses GS and gets OoT in return. Wonder how that goes.

Crew Prediction Challenge - 5 members get points

Tran - 26
Guest - 25
HM - 25
Moltar - 22
Leon - 20
Lopen - 18
Ed - 18

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Lopen gets the point for MGS, HM gets the point for RBY and GS (pokefreak), and Leon gets the point for MM

HM - 41
Moltar - 38
Tran - 28
Lopen - 21
Ed - 20
Guest (Luster, Zylo (3), HaRR, Kleenex (2), Soul, TRT, KP (3), Chaotic, Ngamer, GfK (3), Trout, BDawg (2), Luis) - 21
Leon - 19
Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 42 - Bracket: OoT > FF8 - Vote: OoT (135/200)
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/18/2009 9:16:16 AM | message detail | filter | #482
Hey, my prediction looks pretty good right now if you give FFIX a couple of percent from OoT.

Of course, OoT is going to brutalize this pack in about 4 hours, so...!
th3l3fty | Posted 5/18/2009 10:11:08 AM | message detail | filter | #483
looks like THE MAN succeeds once again
thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/18/2009 10:22:04 AM | message detail | filter | #484
I sent my analysis for tomorrow's match to Master Moltar's e-mail address. I wonder if he's gotten it yet.
transience | Posted 5/18/2009 1:31:31 PM | message detail | filter | #485
OOT outdoes FF7 FF7 is so screwed
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/18/2009 1:31:58 PM | message detail | filter | #486
th3l3fty | Posted 5/18/2009 1:43:10 PM | message detail | filter | #487
you're right, Leon

we've still got the ASV!
thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/18/2009 6:00:02 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #488

From: LinkMarioSamus | #484
I sent my analysis for tomorrow's match to Master Moltar's e-mail address. I wonder if he's gotten it yet.

I did

also OoT is a beast
Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 42 - Bracket: OoT > FF8 - Vote: OoT (135/200)
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/18/2009 8:28:07 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #489
Division 6: Round 2 - Match 43 – Final Fantasy X vs. Metal Gear Solid 2 vs. Kingdom Hearts vs. Grand Theft Auto: Vice City

Moltar’s Analysis

Final Fantasy X
Round 1 - 45.92% vs. Metal Gear Solid 2, Morrowind and Silent Hill 2

FFX looking as good as ever

Metal Gear Solid 2
Round 1 - 27.84% vs. Final Fantasy X, Morrowind and Silent Hill 2

This looks to be the weakest of the MGS games

Kingdom Hearts
Round 1 - 38.95% vs. Vice City, Metroid Prime and Paper Mario


Vice City
Round 1 - 24.48% vs. Kingdom Hearts, Metroid Prime and Paper Mario

Vice City takes advantage of an weakened Prime

I have FFX > Prime in my bracket. Dammit GameFAQs what is wrong with Metroid Prime. It was supposed to take advantage of the PS2 game split and beat KH, but nooooooooo Nintendo fans would rather vote Paper Mario over it and make it lose to Vice City. Ugh

Anyway, FFX is easily the strongest PS2 game here. KH is the next strongest, however FF and KH have a weird relationship. Sometimes SFF happens, sometimes it doesn’t. More often than not though, KH holds up. I think it’s because KH skews to a younger audience, and it is the only “kiddy” game here…

MGS also had a weird relationship with FF in the past, though lately it’s looking like MGS doesn’t fold from the overlap anymore. However, MGS2 looks to be far weaker than KH. I already think it’s the weakest of the MGS games, and MGS1 doesn’t even look that hot after its R2 match.

Oh and lol vice city

Moltar’s Bracket Says: FFX > Metroid Prime

Moltar’s Prediction is: FFX: 33% - KH: 26% - MGS2: 24% - Vice City: 17%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Forgot to submit a write-up yesterday! Whoops!

This match looks harder to predict than it actually will be. I used to think that KH had a great shot at pulling out a win here, especially after seeing it wreck shop last round and KH2 go equal to RE4, but then the second round happened. For whatever reason, Square games are killing each other's strength with some nasty LFF. The sole exception to this may be FFVIII yesterday, but even it looked much worse than you'd expect against Ocarina.

FFX and KH may not exactly be the same as two FFs, but I do expect there to be some noticeable overlap there -- and for KH to suffer as a result. I think if you give most Square fans a choice today, they're going to side with FFX by and large. It's the number one PS2 RPG for most people, the FFVII of the generation in more ways than one. If it comes down to one favoring the other, FFX should benefit. I don't think this means that KH is going to be completely destroyed, it shouldn't come in last or anything, but whatever chance it had to advance might be shot.

...But then again, that performance last round looks less and less impressive when you consider how well VC did, and then how well every other GTA game has done. Tough to say, but despite MGS2's lackluster showing last round, I like it to take second. Something crazy could happen with major PS2 SFF, but I doubt it. MGS2 should have enough strength, and standout factor, to be able to move on, even by the slimest of margins.

Final Fantasy X -- 36%
Metal Gear Solid 2 -- 25%
Kingdom Hearts -- 22%
Vice City -- 17%

Bracket: Final Fantasy X > Metal Gear Solid 2
Favorites: Final Fantasy X > Metal Gear Solid 2

Lopen’s Analysis

I hate this contest. SFFmania, no comebacks, no unexpected results that I like to see other than Tales of Symphonia. The first game contest was the best, this is the worst. Yes, I'm including the villains contest here. SAVE_US.Mario or SAVE_US.RE4. Our only savior. Errr... anyway, now that I'm done whining...
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/18/2009 8:28:23 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #490
No real reason for Kingdom Hearts to hurt FFX enough for it to lose to MGS2. Now, MGS2 vs KH, that is a bit of a pickle. If nothing else, I think KH gets hurt more by FFX than MGS2 gets hurt by... other game. KH did look pretty beastly in R1, but with Other Game taking second in its match, I'm a bit skeptical as to how strong the pack really was anyway. Metroid Prime, Mario, and ot-- oh it's Vice City. Yeah with GTA flopping all over the place that ain't nothin. Give me 30% against FFX to mean more than 37% against that trash.

If only naked cartwheels were in this match, MGS2 would win for sure. Hopefully Bacon wises up and uses Kleenex's picture. In fact, if it does end up getting them, swap my FFX and Metal Gear percentage, Moltar. And perhaps change my analysis to: NAKED CARTWHEELS NAKED CARTWHEELS NAKED CARTWHEELS.

Lopen's prediction:
Final Fantasy X – 33.61%
Metal Gear !? - 27.61%
Kingdom Hearts – 22.63%

Transience’s Analysis

Obvious question of the match: how much do FFX and KH overlap?

The 'evidence' here is really sketchy. Aeris went and destroyed Sora in 2003, then Sora came back and whooped her ass in 2008. KH and FF clearly share a fanbase, but it seems to be random in terms of when it wants to manifest itself. In recent times, KH has held its own - Sora advancing easily in Squall/Sora/Yoshi/Fox, and perhaps most impressively, Squall almost beating Sonic despite Sora in the poll. It was so impressive that it looked like Sora didn't have any impact at all.. which suggests the two fanbases are separate.

On the other hand, Square overlap has been pretty ugly in recent matches. FF1 and FF4 buried each other, and FF8/FF9 is pretty significant today as well. If KH gets buried like FF1 did, MGS2's walking all over this match.

What's ultimately going to push me in KH's direction is that I don't think MGS2 is very strong. If this were MGS3, I'd probably go for Metal Gear easily, but MGS2 seems like a clear step down. It wasn't particularly close to FFX and KH probably isn't that far off. FFX could completely murder it - it's KH's absolute worst matchup - but I wouldn't be surprised if MGS2 gets hurt as well. I also think that KH has improved massively since 2004, making that old match with Aeris completely useless. The only thing holding me back now is MGS beating KH handily in the series contest, but this is low-tier MGS vs. high tier KH, so..

I actually have a funny feeling about Vice City here.. it just seems to be the kind of game that could stand to benefit. Watch it beat MGS2.

transience's prediction:

Final Fantasy X - 35%
Kingdom Hearts - 26%
Metal Gear Solid 2 - 22%
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City - 17%

Leonhart’s Analysis

Final Fantasy X: Final Fantasy X did everything it needed to do to avoid the possible LFF upset here in round two, and it got some help from the other games not doing so well. MGS2 didn’t do as well as many expected, nor did Prime or Vice City. Basically, the games we thought might be threats to FFX here turned out not to be in the end. FFX’s biggest roadblock to the finals may turn out not to be quite a roadblock after all, but the problem is that it may have to carry Kingdom Hearts with it for another round, which could potentially pose problems for it again. However, for this round, it’s safe.
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 5/18/2009 8:29:10 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #491
Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty: Metal Gear Solid 2 certainly didn’t put up that great of a performance last round, winding up closer to Morrowind than it did to Final Fantasy X. Now Morrowind is probably a bit stronger than we expected, but that’s still not a good showing for MGS2, especially when it had hopes for advancing prior to the contest (I have FFX > MGS2 in my bracket, for the record). Those hopes seem to be rather dim right now. Basically, it has to depend on FFX putting a SFF hurting on Kingdom Hearts here, which is something you never want to depend on to advance. I don’t like its chances, but it’s not impossible.

Kingdom Hearts: Kingdom Hearts certainly did well for itself last round. The original blew its first round fourpack away, though that can certainly be chalked up to Prime and Vice City being unexpectedly weak. Then Kingdom Hearts II nearly beats Resident Evil 4, a game that many expected to be strong enough to make the finals. There’s no doubt that this game has acquired quite a fanbase on GameFAQs since Kingdom Hearts dropped a stink bomb in 2004. Of course, it has to deal with potential LFF/SFF from Final Fantasy X here, but Sora has proven that he can stand up to top tier Final Fantasy characters and resist it. I’d imagine Kingdom Hearts can do the same here. It won’t get a SFF beatdown, and I don’t think the LFF it suffers will be enough to allow either of the other two games to pass it.

Grand Theft Auto: Vice City: You know, according to 2004, this match should go something like FFX > Vice City > Kingdom Hearts > MGS2. Things have changed quite a bit since then. Vice City probably gets last place here, though I wouldn’t be surprised if it ended up beating MGS2 here. I don’t expect that to happen, but it could. Forget about it advancing though (At least for now!).

Leonhart’s Vote: Final Fantasy X! Finals, here we come!

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Final Fantasy X – 31.11%
Metal Gear Solid 2 – 19.67%
Kingdom Hearts – 23.78%
Vice City – 15.44%

Guest’s Analysis - LinkMarioSamus

Oh, goody, goody, we're back in the 21st century! Unfortunately, this is the division that I least care about. The good is that it's time for Final Fantasy X to show that it's elite stuff! I like how FFX is actually different from its PlayStation predecessors versus Pokemon/Zelda/Smash games rehashing the same design. OK, screw it, I've never played any game in this pack, but I have respect for every game in the tourney regardless of whether I've played it or not. The big question for this match is whether Final Fantasy X will SFF Kingdom Hearts into the ground. Uhm, I'll say no to that. Here are some facts.

-KH beat GTA: VC by 18k votes last round.
-Tidus was SFFd by Squall more than Sora was.
-Final Fantasy X can't SFF anything well (see where it failed to double Final Fantasy Tactics Advance).

Besides, Kingdom Hearts is a cool and innovative game that deserves to make it out of this match alive. I wish Metroid Prime were here, but whatever. I think Vice City manages last place easily; MGS2 will benefit from franchise voting and all of Vice City's kindred has failed so far. Ultimately, I'm relying on Kingdom Hearts to snatch up a good (2nd place) win.

Final Fantasy X - 30.47%, Metal Gear Solid 2 - 22.44%, Kingdom Hearts - 28.33%, Grand Theft Auto: Vice City - 18.77%
Prediction: Final Fantasy X > Kingdom Hearts
Bracket: Final Fantasy X > Grand Theft Auto: Vice City (at least this isn't as bad as what SOME people picked!!!)
Favorites: Final Fantasy X > Kingdom Hearts
Favorites Bracket: Metroid Prime > Final Fantasy X

BTW am I the only one who doesn't think Metroid Prime was very disappointing?

Crew Consensus: FFX > KH is the favorite, with HM and Lopen supporting FFX > MGS2
transients | Posted 5/18/2009 8:30:52 PM | message detail | filter | #492
Leon more like 90%
GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/18/2009 8:32:31 PM | message detail | filter | #493
XD Leon
Today's prediction: Ocarina 44.10% - Orphanage 22.67% - Starcrap 19.06% - Vivi 14.17%
Status: meh
Ed Bellis | Posted 5/18/2009 9:30:27 PM | message detail | filter | #494
Match 42

more like kingdom FARTS LOL

FFX gets second, and I’m really inclined to back Metal Gear Solid 2 here because of probable SFF between FFX and Kingdom Hearts… but MGS has also been very likely prone to SFF from Final Fantasy. Furthermore, MGS2 looked pretty weak last round, while Kingdom Hearts looked pretty strong, and SFF seems like it matters less and less in this contest. I’m gonna back DARKNESSSSSSSS etc.

Prediction: best
Final Fantasy X with 37.55%
Metal Gear Solid 2 with 18.33%
Kingdom Hearts with 26.28%
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City with 17.84%

ed status: Maybe the chef was Darkseid. You don't mess with Darkseid. -MoogleKupo141
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/18/2009 10:27:56 PM | message detail | filter | #495
How's my analysis looking, folks?

*currently listens to music from The Revenge of Shinobi*
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/18/2009 10:33:08 PM | message detail | filter | #496
Hmmm...It seems as though my trusty calculator has failed me!

Moltar, to compensate, please give Vice City 1% and the other three 3%.

Yes, that should work out quite nicely.
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/18/2009 11:27:57 PM | message detail | filter | #497
Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup

Hm... well on the plus side we're already over 130k and this should end up as the 2nd or 3rd most popular match of the season so far, despite the double Final Fantasy overlap. On the down side, here's another missed opportunity on what ought to have been a great match! Really cool first three hours, looked to be setting up for FF8 to get a decent lead before SC came roaring back with the SNV Halo/SC-style, but then Europe had to go and ruin everything by being WAY too crazy about FF8. That was such a devastating stretch that the Blizzard faithful realized there would be no chance of a rally; instead Ocarina got a free pass to just keep rising all day. And yikes, did it ever! Even combining FF8 and 9, they still only managed to hold Ocarina to 59% of the vote- boy, I'd be shaking in my boots if I had one of those wacky FF7 brackets! Though of course none of this Finals talk matters unless FFX can make it there to help balance the load, and speaking of which...

Crazy showing from X last round, easily one of the most impressive of R1 in my opinion. KH1 did pretty well for itself also, but as other Crewmembers have touched on, FFX and KH have such a weird relationship that you never know how they'll affect one another. I could see anything happening here, from X pounding KH so badly that VC is in range (until the ASV kicks in) to KH holding X back so hard that MGS2... okay, strike that, couldn't ever see MGS2 winning outright.

MGS2 over KH though, now there's an interesting proposition. Sure Sora has held up well against Squall, but I think things could be different when the two games themselves are in play- FFX was just such the RPG star of that generation that'd I have to imagine it hugely overshadows KH1 or 2 or FF12 or anything else. Also, despite the underwhelming percentage last round, I'm not entirely sold on MGS2 being the weakest of the series, and furthermore I've got a ton of respect for this fanbase in terms of staying resilient despite stronger competition. The base isn't big enough to score blowouts (as MGS1 showed us yesterday), but it's generally consistent enough to manage 25%+ against most opponents, and if FFX is able to cause enough havoc it might not even need that much tonight.

On the other hand... gosh that was a great showing for KH2 in that match with RE4. I'm torn on this one; better let the match pic decide! Hmm, love the big bold title for MGS2, plus the "2" has been cut off on the right; might help with the franchise voting! And KH doesn't impress me- the series always seems to be at top strength when it draws the sort-of-anime look they've been doing from KH2 on, so I don't think Goofy and Donald is its best bet. Alright, guess I'll back the upset and take the MGS fanbase to pull out one of their classic close victories here (shouldn't be too hard, as Frog has already showed us that this franchise can be had in the final hour).

One final note: I don't think VC gets entirely crunched in this one, as most seem to be expecting. Sure the series has disappointed, but it's been a consistent disappointment, with all 4 games grabbing between 22 and 28 percent of the vote. No chance Vice City matches that against good competition like this, but still, I'd be surprised if it imploded to under 14% or so.

Final Fantasy X - 36.61%
Metal Gear Solid 2 - 23.05%
Kingdom Hearts - 23.01%
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City - 17.34%

Looks... risky, but I like it!

The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/18/2009 11:31:45 PM | message detail | filter | #498
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/18/2009 11:49:53 PM | message detail | filter | #499
Hmmm...It seems as though my trusty calculator has failed me!

I once had an Oracle prediction also add up to only 90%. I managed to catch onto this before the match started and adjusted my prediction slightly higher.
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
transience | Posted 5/18/2009 11:50:08 PM | message detail | filter | #500
thanks for that, Luster
"Actually, fire didn't make Sephiroth awesome. Sephiroth made fire awesome." -Karma Hunter