GameFAQs Contests


Best Game Ever 2 Contest Analysis Crew (Part Two)

Kaxon | Posted 4/22/2009 11:04:51 PM | message detail | filter | #151
HOLY CRAP. This is the first result of the contest that has flat out stunned me.
I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience
Lopen | Posted 4/22/2009 11:13:41 PM | message detail | filter | #152
Holy Zen, Pokemon!

However I'm almost inclined to say this is just the other three games sucking more than expected. Wait till tomorrow to jump to conclusions.
So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
transience | Posted 4/22/2009 11:14:43 PM | message detail | filter | #153
yeah, I have a lot to say or think about this match but the board's a bit too crazy. I'm gonna let Pokemon stabilize before calling for it to win the contest or something.
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/22/2009 11:14:51 PM | message detail | filter | #154
Wild ANALYSIS CREW appeared!


It's super effective!


ZFS | Posted 4/22/2009 11:16:41 PM | message detail | filter | #155
Buncha Pokemon freaks on GameFAQs bring back 2004 imho

nintendogirl1 | Posted 4/22/2009 11:16:48 PM | message detail | filter | #156
NGirl's Fangirl Belt boosted GLOATING by 400%.
****. Yeah.
Ngamer64 (tc) | Posted 4/22/2009 11:25:34 PM | message detail | filter | #157
Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup

Whoa nelly, was that ever an impressive performance by Chrono Trigger! Mario was able to take a small bite out of it with the ASV, but aside from that 4 hour stretch or so the game was flat out golden. I'd joked last night about how badly Mario would sting it in Europe, but not only did that not happen, CT actually shot up to its best hours of the day during that time! If those are legit post-CTDS trends (and not just Europe being incredibly apathetic about the other three options), then all of a sudden this game is legitimately scary once again- which is frankly shocking considering I've spent the last three years giggling that red sox and handful of others still considered the CT/LttP rematch "debatable"! Also a quick note of congrats to Earthbound... had it not been placed in just about the worst situation possible S/LFF-wise it seems pretty clear that it could have lead Yoshi's Island outright for the first 6 hours of this one. Now, the Day Vote was going to come around and crush its chances regardless, but still, that would have been fun to see.

Moving on to one of the best 1v1s of the whole round! First though let me say what a pleasure it is to see the Crew having such nice things to say (and generous predictions to make) regarding my favorite game, Perfect Dark. I didn't rally for it this year in favor of trying to help GE into a good seed just because Bond has so much more potential, and its too bad we couldn't have seen a mixed bracket where a beloved game like PD would have had a chance to slide past some outdated older games, but its nice to see it represented in any case. And wow, what a great match pic!

Enough of the mushy stuff, let's move on to what will hopefully be an exciting battle. In my bracket I took R/B/Y for the win here on the basis of MM having to share the poll with two other highly regarded N64 titles (plus the STF of being the only RPG), Pokemon being well suited to this format, and nostalgia. Partly though I just took it because it was a safe pick considering that MM is sure to force its way back on top in R2 (when Red will be losing the RPG sore thumb advantage for sure, and might even be decimated by having to split with another Pokemon!). So, I went with the upset, but without any kind of confidence. Then after LA scored a very easy win over MMX I gave up on this pick entirely- if a 4th tier Zelda can put on a show like that, surely a 3rd tier game like MM was a lock for the win.

HOWEVER, then yesterday popped out of the clouds like a ray of sunshine for my bracket. Mario had been smoking the competition right and left, so a Mario game against three SNES RPGs was a sure formula for a franchise vote'd overperformance, right? Wrong! Maybe the voters aren't as sheepish as we often think, and R/B/Y is certainly a well loved 90s RPG with tons of nostalgia behind it... if Chrono Trigger can blast Mario, surely Pokemon can at least keep it close! What pushed me over the edge was that match pic- probably 3 of the 5 most popular Pokemon of all time up against a big purple eye and one of Link's least popular forms? This could really happen!

*pulls the trigger*

Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow - 35.90%
Zelda: Majora's Mask - 35.64%
Perfect Dark - 20.44%
Banjo-Kazooie - 8.02%


The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/22/2009 11:27:36 PM | message detail | filter | #158
Oh god I can't wait for this reaction

Ngamer64 (tc) | Posted 4/22/2009 11:38:15 PM | message detail | filter | #159
Hey now! My baby is Perfect Dark- yes I put up that rally topic for MM, but that was only because R/B/Y had already won the Rally Contest outright and I felt sure it would be making a a bracket of 64. I never said Majora would be a world beater, just that it was one of the biggest wildcards. And it certainly worked, because this is about the wildest result I've ever seen!

(But yeah, I first checked the results about ten minutes ago, and I still haven't been able to pull my jaw up off the floor.)

The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
transience | Posted 4/22/2009 11:40:08 PM | message detail | filter | #160
true true. Pokemon doing work on all your games!

god, this is the coolest result ever. and I've never even played RBY.
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/22/2009 11:41:14 PM | message detail | filter | #161
Imagine how it is for someone who absolutely adores RBY.

Applekidjosh | Posted 4/22/2009 11:47:15 PM | message detail | filter | #162

From: Kaxon | #151
HOLY CRAP. This is the first result of the contest that has flat out stunned me.

couldn't have put it better myself

Tranquil as a forest, but on fire within. Once you find your center you are sure to win!
nintendogirl1 | Posted 4/22/2009 11:47:34 PM | message detail | filter | #163
(He should be able to work it out from our reactions KP)

Just guessing.
But probably.
Ngamer64 (tc) | Posted 4/23/2009 12:27:39 AM | message detail | filter | #164
Good post from Rock earlier:

RockMFR 5 | Posted 4/22/2009 10:52:01 PM | message detail
I don't think RBY necessarily gets out of round 2. It's going to have a lot to deal with:
1) GS will almost certainly be there, and at the very best RBY will probably split the Pokemon votes 2/1.
2) There will be a stronger anti-vote, as having two Pokemon games in the same match will evoke a "wtf Pokemon is taking over!" reaction in a lot of people
3) Two fewer N64 games draining MM
4) For people who owned a Game Boy and a PlayStation (a common combo), the votes for MGS are going to be coming out of Pokemon's share
5) 24 days between now and that match - some of the Platinum fanbase should leave the site by then
Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0
The Ohio State University: We are so much better than m*ch!g@n.

Well, I don't know how much I agree with #4, but even if R/B/Y crushes G/S/C into the ground completely (I certainly think it'll beat it worse than the 2/1 Rock was going with) I still don't think we should count MM out entirely. What a crazy situation though... it's quite possible Red falls out in R2, but it's also entirely possible that it busts on through and forces an Ocarina/MGS/StarCraft/Pokemon matchup. And with Pokemon being probably the one Nintendo game that would refuse to fold under pressure from OoT, and MGS and SC being the two strongest, most Nintendo/Square independent entries on the site... and there's no way Blizzard loses if it comes down to a final hour rally war...

I'm getting a little crazy here, I realize that, but you've got to admit it's freaky that Ocarina could be put in such a bad position so early in this bracket!

The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
transience | Posted 4/23/2009 12:30:05 AM | message detail | filter | #165
RBY is gonna murder GSC if it's there.

for GSC to hurt RBY enough, they'd have to split 50/50. I just can't see this happening - RBY is gonna go Ocarina on GSC's ass. that should be like 80/20.

take 20% of RBY's votes away and it's still cleaning Majora's clock.

the argument against RBY is that this is a pure Nintendo match. give the other fanbases an option and it might not do as well.
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/23/2009 12:54:45 AM | message detail | filter | #166
So tranny gets the RBY point, Lopen gets the MM point, HM and Moltar probably score the Banjo point, and HM gets the Perfect Dark point.

transience | Posted 4/23/2009 12:55:39 AM | message detail | filter | #167
I like how I'm off by 13% and still get the point. never seen anything like this, at least in a fourway.
Ngamer64 (tc) | Posted 4/23/2009 12:59:49 AM | message detail | filter | #168
Hmm... I guess you're right tranman, no matter how bad you spin the "N64 damage" Majora is taking in this one, R/B/Y is still in good shape as long as it manages to put up 70% on its younger brother, which I don't think it will have trouble doing. MM's one hope is that with two Pokemon options in the poll we'll essentially be going back to the days of 1v1... and if Xenogears and Metroid are any indication, there's a good piece of the site who will side with the "non-Pokemon choice" when it gets to 50/50.

The Guru ROCKS, son!
( & aren't awful either)
Master Moltar | Posted 4/23/2009 1:09:37 AM | message detail | delete | filter | #169
best zelda doesn't deserve this

RBY is great and all but this is insane
Moltar Status: you can't hide forever
Match 17 - Bracket: Zelda: MM > RBY - Vote: Zelda: MM (50/64)
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/23/2009 7:43:34 AM | message detail | filter | #170
I admit it. I did a double take when I saw the poll results. I don't really mind though since I did vote for R/B/Y. My bracket's hurting though because I have MGS > MM next round. Well, as long as FFT isn't there in the third round and FFVIII makes it, I'll be okay.

Uhhh...MGS vs. R/B/Y next round, who you got?

Anyone want to hand me some crow?
transience | Posted 4/23/2009 10:47:50 AM | message detail | filter | #171
I was waiting to see what you'd say. you've been talking down RBY for a while.

but everyone's sucking some crow down today, it's just a matter of how much!
Lopen | Posted 4/23/2009 10:54:33 AM | message detail | filter | #172
Eh, I had this match being not close, and I was right. 5% vs 20% only matters in the Oracle.

Feelin pretty good about Pokemanz RBY > MGS next round... maybe the first debatable match of R2 my bracket will make at this rate!

As a disclaimer, I actually did my write-up for tomorrow's match in advance. Not changing my prediction or even really the write-up, though. This RBY beatdown doesn't say too much to me. Let's just assume I preface my write-up with.

"Pokemanz RBY owned face, but I'm not necessarily going to auto extend it to GS. It's in for a fight here. FFT and MGS are much badder dudes than Majora's Mask, and GS should be a lot weaker at that."

Of course I might have already picked GS tomorrow...!
So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
Lopen | Posted 4/23/2009 10:55:14 AM | message detail | filter | #173
I mean if anything most of my crow is a result of Perfect Dark. I'm not sure why I thought that game was popular.
So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/23/2009 1:26:47 PM | message detail | filter | #174
I was waiting to see what you'd say. you've been talking down RBY for a while.

I think I was just overreacting to what I thought was everyone else overreacting to RBY's supposed strength! I actually semi like the game. It's the only mainline Pokemon game I've ever played.

I'll still take Pokemon Snap over this stuff though!!
XxSoulxX | Posted 4/23/2009 1:33:01 PM | message detail | filter | #175

Feelin pretty good about Pokemanz RBY > MGS next round... maybe the first debatable match of R2 my bracket will make at this rate!

Right on brother! I also agree on MGS > FFT tomorrow, because of GSC not being as popular as RBY.
ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'. - Topaz Kitsune
Believe it or not, the Internet is serious business - Biolizard28
transience | Posted 4/23/2009 1:40:20 PM | message detail | filter | #176
I'm struggling with tomorrow... looking forward to writing it up in a few hours. this contest just got really exciting with this crazy performance. wodner what else will blow us away.
Applekidjosh | Posted 4/23/2009 1:41:25 PM | message detail | filter | #177
Pokemon is this contest's Starcraft. Turns out RBY was the weakest and G/S and D/P are going to rock faces

Tranquil as a forest, but on fire within. Once you find your center you are sure to win!
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/23/2009 2:09:57 PM | message detail | filter | #178
I'm not expecting the same thing from G/S or D/P as R/B/Y. There's no doubt which one was the strongest. Now whether or not that's enough for G/S to beat FFT, who knows?

It also gives me hope that FFIX won't be there in round 2 to do in FFVIII, maybe! Of course, this also means that I'm still assuming FFIX and CC LFF each other, despite all evidence to the contrary!
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/23/2009 2:11:09 PM | message detail | filter | #179
Chrono Cross wins that match book it.
I've been waiting for this moment all my life - it's my destiny.
Master Moltar | Posted 4/23/2009 4:29:20 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #180
Chrono Trigger.........................................56.36% 66995
Earthbound...............................................15.6% 18547
Lufia II........................................................4.23% 5026
Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island..........23.81% 28308
TOTAL VOTES..................................................118876

Matches Completely Correct - 10
Matches Partially Correct - 6
Matches Completely Wrong - 0

What Happened - The expected result of CT > SMW2 occurs. However, it's the percentages that are a bit surprising.

Why it Happened - A lot of people were going fairly low for CT. After what we had seen from FF6, LttP, and other games that were strong in 2004, it wasn't looking like CT would score too high here. Well, CT showed why it's considered a Top 5 game here by proving us wrong and showing us that it's still got it.

Well, maybe. SMW2 looks really bad here. It beat Earthbound a little worse than Doom did 5 years ago, and EB doesn't have any real reason to rise. CT may have looked good here because of Yoshi's Island's dud.

What Will Happen - SM64/SotN/CT/SMW2, SM64 shouldn't have any problem crushing YI.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Everyone except Guest gets rewarded.

HM - 11
Tran - 10
Moltar - 9
Guest - 8
Lopen - 7
Leon - 7
Ed - 7

Crew Accuracy Challenge - HM gets the point for CT and SMW2, Moltar gets the point for EB, and Moltar and Tran get points for Lufia 2.

Moltar - 17
HM - 14
Tran - 13
Lopen - 9
Leon - 8
Ed - 6
Guest (Luster, Zylo (3), HaRR, Kleenex) - 6
Moltar Status: you can't hide forever
Match 17 - Bracket: Zelda: MM > RBY - Vote: Zelda: MM (50/64)
trannyscience | Posted 4/23/2009 7:38:01 PM | message detail | filter | #181
looking forward to seeing if the anti-Pokemon army -- aka the Analysis Crew -- can swallow their pride and pick Pokemon today!
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/23/2009 7:39:10 PM | message detail | filter | #182
I'm Executive Chief of the Pokemon Army and still think MGS>FFT has good shot at happening!

trannyscience | Posted 4/23/2009 7:39:38 PM | message detail | filter | #183
I think it's a pretty fun tossup. this is the best division for round 1 matches.
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/23/2009 8:07:13 PM | message detail | filter | #184
Yeah, round 1 in this division is full of great stuff. N64/PSX era is where it's at, folks!
nintendogirl1 | Posted 4/23/2009 8:08:52 PM | message detail | filter | #185

From: KamikazePotato
I'm Executive Chief of the Pokemon Army and still think MGS>FFT has good shot at happening!

I'm President and I agree.

And would prefer it to be so for R2 RBY sake and my bracket.
Lopen | Posted 4/23/2009 8:09:00 PM | message detail | filter | #186
I'm not anti-Pokemon. Like I said I have RBY taking first next round too. But really this match says nothing to me about GS tomorrow.
So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
Master Moltar | Posted 4/23/2009 8:35:06 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #187
Well, there's a 4-3 split, but which side has the advantage? Find out soon!
Moltar Status: you can't hide forever
Match 17 - Bracket: Zelda: MM > RBY - Vote: Zelda: MM (50/64)
trannyscience | Posted 4/23/2009 8:48:36 PM | message detail | filter | #188
predicting Moltar, HM and Leon in favour of FFT!
chronicfreeze | Posted 4/23/2009 8:51:08 PM | message detail | filter | #189
LOL at FFT beating Pokemon or MGS. If MGS/FFT had gone differently last time, I would have ended the contest tied with Ulti. Failed.
--- (yes, it's him!)
"i dont live with my mom any more i have my own place now" - ertyu
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/23/2009 8:55:48 PM | message detail | filter | #190
Considering Leon had the lowest RBY percentage and was very adamant about it bombing, I think he goes the opposite direction this time.

trannyscience | Posted 4/23/2009 8:57:26 PM | message detail | filter | #191
you clearly don't know how adamant he was about Pikachu or Mewtwo or whatever!
Master Moltar | Posted 4/23/2009 9:01:38 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #192
Division 5: Round 1 - Match 18 – Deus Ex vs. Final Fantasy Tactics vs. Metal Gear Solid vs. Pokemon G/S

Moltar’s Analysis

Deus Ex
2004 Results: N/A

Gonna need some Deus Ex Machina to see it advance

2004 Results: Won in Round 1 against Dance Dance Revolution
Lost in Round 2 against Metal Gear Solid

All about that Final Fantasy

2004 Results: Won in Round 1 against Resident Evil
Won in Round 2 against Final Fantasy Tactics
Lost in Round 3 against Final Fantasy VII

Hey, I recently went back to Shadow Moses!

Pokemon G/S
2004 Results: Lost in Round 1 against Xenogears

lol crystal

I bet Allen looked at the results of the last Games Contest, saw MGS vs. FFT, and thought, “Wow, the margin of victory here was under 1000 votes. In fact, the margin of victory was only 38 votes! That must have meant it was a super-exciting match-up! It would be cool to see these two games go at it again in a rematch! Surely, the Contest guys will love me for setting up this rematch!”

Yeah MGS vs. FFT was exciting…back in 2004. Remember when we were just coming off Cloud’s win in 2003 and SquareFAQs was the name of the site and Snake was at the ass end of the Noble Nine getting owned by Mega Man? Times have changed since then. GameFAQs has developed better taste, and now MGS, as well as Snake, is a force on the site. Final Fantasy is still big, but I doubt Tactics has held up as well. I mean, it didn’t even win the match against MGS 5 years ago, and MGS has only gone up since then. MGS beats it much easier now to take first.

FFT isn’t going to fall off completely though. The FF game is still going to do well. However the big new question is where does G/S end up in all of this. 24 hours ago, it was “G/S more like game that lost to Xenogears no way does it match MGS/FFT”. Now we’re watching R/B/Y get 50% on 3 N64 games, and one is ZELDA: Majora’s Mask. The match raises a lot of questions, but the one that applies here is “How strong is G/S compared to R/B/Y?”

The answer is not as strong. R/B/Y has its reasons to be very strong, but G/S doesn’t. It doesn’t have that nostalgia, it doesn’t have those Pokemon everyone knows and recognizes. I mean, I (and others) think it’s a better game than R/B/Y, but it’s not going to perform as well because the masses easily love the first generation the most.

Last time we saw G/S, it lost to Xenogears. As irrelevant as it may be today, it still happened. Yes, Poke-hate has faded and Pokemon has gone up since then, but GS won’t be as strong as RBY. As impressive as RBY is today, I wouldn’t take it over MGS at the moment. FFT though, yes. G/S is going to have a fraction of the strength of R/B/Y, and I think FFT should be able to handle that if it hasn’t fallen off as hard as Ramza suggests.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: MGS > FFT

Moltar’s Prediction is: MGS: 37% - FFT: 27% - Pokemon G/S: 26% - Deus Ex: 10%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

pokemon more like suckmon

Yesterday's result has gotten everyone all excited (why!) about Pokemon domination this contest, some already calling RBY a top 10 game based on almost nothing. Needless to say, I expect the Crew to near unanimously favor GSC to take second, if not a few going for the big upset with first.

But not me!

I'm not gettin' so swept up in the Pokemon domination that my picks turn into Pokefear. Unlike Majora's Mask, we have a read on the two games here, we have something to go off of. Sure, it's hard to get a real idea of where MGS and FFT stand, but they're at least known -- they're also both from big, non-Nintendo franchises, which means there's no SFF for Pokemon to possibly take advantage of.
goku z | Posted 4/23/2009 9:01:46 PM | message detail | filter | #193
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Master Moltar | Posted 4/23/2009 9:02:02 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #194
I'm not going to pretend I know the Pokemon games, though (I don't at all), but based on what I do know, RBY should be much stronger than GSC, that's the general expectation. It makes sense, too -- it was the first Pokemon game, the biggest one, and the one most people are likely to have played/liked before quitting the series. With GSC, we know that it got rocked by Xenogears, which is a pretty pointless match at this point, but for whatever it's worth, we've seen it in action before.

It's hard for me to imagine that Pokemon has made such a huge reversal that GSC goes from barely getting 40% on Xenogears to beating FFT. I don't think 'Gears was fodder by any means back in 2k4, it was probably a respectable game, but it wasn't stronger than FFT then, and it isn't stronger than it now. FFT's probably dropped a smidge since 2k4, but it has had a recent port to keep it fresh and relevant today. Besides that, it's a Final Fantasy game -- something that's hard to top no matter who you are -- and well liked one at that.

And despite the immense respect people have for Metal Gear Solid after Snake's recent run, I'm not sold on its strength like most people are. I don't think the game is weak by any means, but it wouldn't surprise me if it's not a top 10 game and is more along the lines of a top 20 game, something that makes a little more sense when you think about it. I could be wrong here, and it has a chance to show it's as strong as most expect, but I'll need to see that. Don't think it's going to beat FFT nearly as bad as people think.

let's go final fantasy time to rock pokemon's world

Metal Gear Solid -- 35%
Final Fantasy Tactics -- 29%
Pokemon GSC -- 26%
Deus Ex -- 10%

Bracket: Metal Gear Solid > Final Fantasy Tactics
Favorites: Metal Gear Solid > Final Fantasy Tactics (voting for FFT!)

Lopen’s Analysis

"Pokemanz RBY owned face, but I'm not necessarily going to auto extend it to GS. It's in for a fight here. FFT and MGS are much badder dudes than Majora's Mask, and GS should be a lot weaker at that."

What? More wild Pokemanz appeared? What the crap. I almost feel bad about having RBY go two rounds now, I think I just totally ignored it when I made my bracket. It has a good chance, losing to Xenogears 5 years ago be damned... but I'm not supporting it here. It should be weaker than RBY by a good margin and well... FFT and MGS are pretty much powerhouses in their own right.

Anyway, I guess the gist of this match is... MGS and FFT had a real nailbiter a few years ago... and really, there's little reason to suspect it's going to be any different today. The games have both aged well... and while there has been a boost in Metal Gear Solid fandom on this site, I don't think it necessarily applies to the first MGS too terribly much. Ramza also looked like crap last year... but I don't think that says anything for FFT. Who likes Ramza, anyway? (shut it, Leonhart)

But I mean... MGS won the first time, and all x-factors point to it being the one to gain over the years. But then, there's also this new format... which could basically just throw a wrench into everything, perhaps in FFT's favor or even Pokemon's. I'm not going to claim the match is going to be close or even whether I have any idea of what's going to happen. I'm just going to be straight and say “I'm goin with gut here” and also make a disclaimer and say that I don't necessarily expect this match to be close just because it was last time. Just throwing percentages around here.

Lopen's prediction:
Metal Gear Solid – 31.57%
Final Fantasy Tactics – 31.43%
Pokemanz GS – 30.50%
Deuces Wild – 6.50%
Master Moltar | Posted 4/23/2009 9:03:07 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #195
Transience’s Analysis

Holy WOW at RBY today. I picked it for first and even argued that it could be around FF6's level in strength, but even I have to admit that I was wrong. If you take the percentages seriously, RBY is looking to be about equal to FF7. Yes, seriously.

Now that I've said that, let me try to rationalize this match. You could also say that I'm making up excuses as for why RBY isn't as strong as it looks.

- The Picture. I don't believe pictures matter much - Only in extreme cases will I allow for it to determine the outcome of the match. Games just aren't very picture-sensitive. But I think one huge exception is RBY - this is a game that, more than any other in the contest, is running off nostalgia. RBY got just about the perfect picture; it stood out, it said "vote for me!", and people did.
- Majora's Mask is unproven. I know, I know, the name ZELDA strikes fear into the hearts of bracketmakers. But MM is a wildcard and if it's just weak as hell, this diminishes RBY's performance.
- Three n64 games. Yeah, I don't believe this is a very significant factor, but it can't help.

But for me, the biggest cause of alarm is that we've seen this kind of stuff before. The ultimate overreaction match is when Tifa beat Vyse in 2005 -- the same Vyse that had been constant two years in a row and was our barometer for whether or not you were strong or not. Tifa went and did the same thing to Vyse that Cloud did, and people responded by declaring her a serious threat to win the bracket. She ended up losing to Sonic who lost to Mega Man who lost to Crono who lost to Mario who lost to Sephiroth who lost to Link.

The conclusion I make from this match, therefore, is one of skepticism. I want to give RBY all the credit in the world, and I'll grant it being a top 20 game. It's earned that. But I need to see more than a round 1 beating to anoint it a godslayer. This is one of a performance but let's see what happens next match before saying anything definitive.

I wrote all this because tomorrow's match depends on how strong Pokemon actually is. These aren't unknown games. This isn't an all-Nintendo pack. This is MGS, likely a top 15 game in our contests, and FFT, a game that got 50% against it in 2004.

Obvious questions:

- is MGS as strong as we want to think it is? It's never shown itself to be a powerhouse, tying FFT and getting smashed by FF7. We assume that it is because Snake is strong, but it's yet to show us. This is its chance at redemption.
- is FFT, y'know, notable in this day and age? FFT carries the Final Fantasy name, but it's not the most accessible thing. People have assumed franchise voting for the longest time, but franchise voting just fell on its face when Zelda got doubled up by a Pokemon game.
- the ultimate question, GSC. How far is it from RBY? Common sense says that it's a good ways off - nostalgia only works with the first game, and most people started with RBY. Characters from later games have also bombed out whereas Mewtwo and Pikachu do great. RBY doing great doesn't mean GSC is top tier or even strong. We already saw this in regards to Zelda. That said, it's clearly stronger than it was in 2004. Strong enough to beat FFT?

I'm skeptical on FFT in general and have been since 2004. Ramza nearly lost to Laharl last year. Ramza to FFT is not the best comparison but when Ramza is noticeably weaker than his 2003 self, how can you not notice? FFT has fallen out of the public's eye a bit as stuff like Fire Emblem has taken over.

I'm also skeptical of GSC. I think this was going to be a close match before, but after seeing RBY, you have to at least give GSC a liiiiiiiiiiittle bit of credit, right? Right?

kids vote for noses
Xenogears had them and won
FFT loses

transience's prediction:

Metal Gear Solid - 38%
Pokemon Gold/Silver - 28%
Final Fantasy Tactics - 24%
Deus Ex - 10%
Master Moltar | Posted 4/23/2009 9:03:30 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #196
Leon’s Analysis

Deus Ex: There isn’t much poll information about Deus Ex, but what little exists isn’t flattering. None of the three polls have it getting more than 5%, and in a poll with three big names, it may be hard pressed to exceed that here. JC Denton appeared in SC2K4 and got 16% on Mario, which was the plumber’s weakest year. I shouldn’t even be wasting time talking about this game, because a distant last place is a lock here.

Final Fantasy Tactics: Final Fantasy Tactics gets paired up with the game that beat it by a mere 38 votes five years ago, and my, how things have changed! People have continually referred to Ramza’s pitiful performance in the last Character Battle as to why Final Fantasy Tactics will do poorly, but Ramza was never strong. 43% on Kirby in 2003 wasn’t THAT impressive, not like it would be since 2005. Sure, Ramza’s weaker now, but still, Final Fantasy Tactics never succeeded on its own merit, regardless of how much I love it. It succeeded because of the first two words of the title, and anyone who thinks otherwise doesn’t pay much attention to these contests. I don’t think Final Fantasy Tactics can stand up to Metal Gear Solid today, but only because MGS’s strength has boosted since then, not because FFT dropped.

Metal Gear Solid: This game perhaps stands to be proportionally stronger than any other game we saw back in 2004. The series had never been lower back in 2004, but it’s recovered big time since the release of Snake Eater, Snake’s role in Super Smash Bros. Brawl, and the release of MGS4 last year. I understand that a large part in Snake’s gain in strength is due to Brawl, but there’s a big difference between MGS3 losing easily to Halo 2 back in 2004 to MGS4 going neck and neck with SSBB last year. I don’t think Metal Gear Solid has any problem taking first place here.

Pokemon Gold/Silver: Ah, two-thirds of the entry that lost to Xenogears five years ago. From what my sources tell me, Pokemon games after R/B/Y aren’t as loved, and most polls since then seem to confirm this. Of course, it’s hard to take any poll involving Pokemon before 2005 seriously because the Nintendo Boost seems to have helped the series immensely. Regardless, the Pokemon name isn’t as big as Final Fantasy or Metal Gear, so it can’t win on that front, and I can’t see it getting that close to either game one-on-one. I can’t see it placing, but it won’t get last place, at least.

Leonhart’s Vote: Two of my favorite stories here, but my vote goes to Metal Gear Solid.

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Deus Ex – 7.94%
Final Fantasy Tactics – 33.81%
Metal Gear Solid – 40.44%
Pokemon Gold/Silver – 17.81%

Ed Bellis’s Analysis

Apologies for the brief writeup – I only have a small window in which to do it.

Three strong games here, only two move on. MGS is probably the strongest of the three, its true strength likely obscured in an FF7-beatdown from 2004. FFT probably isn’t as strong as it once was, having almost tied MGS back in the day. And Pokemon GSC is probably much stronger than it was back then. The fact of the matter is that using 2004 stats for these games is futile.

So I’m just using blind intuition (read: dumb luck). POKEFEAR 2009 BABEE

Prediction: uhhh
Deus Ex with 6.99%
Final Fantasy Tactics with 25.90%
Metal Gear Solid with 35.23%
Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal with 31.88%
Master Moltar | Posted 4/23/2009 9:04:46 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #197
Guest’s Analysis - Mr3790

Hello Board 8, Mr3790 here with a guest analysis of Deus Ex/Final Fantasy Tactics/Metal Gear Solid/Pokemon Gold/Silver.:

First off, Deus Ex getting fourth is a lock here. Too strong opposition plus not having much strength in the first place means so. Metal Gear Solid probably has first here, unless G/S has alot of hidden strength. That said FFT would probably have second this match. But after the previous match with Pokemon looking so strong, this likely will not happen. GS Has second place I shall assume. I have high expectations that G/S will do good against MGS. I await disappointment.


Metal Gear Solid> Pokemon Gold/Silver

MGS: 35%
G/S: 31%
FFT: 27%
Deus Ex: 7%

Crew Consensus: POKEFEAR ain’t here! Even after today, MGS > FFT is the slight favorite over MGS > RBY.
goku z | Posted 4/23/2009 9:06:45 PM | message detail | filter | #198
Just an awful prediction, Leonhart. Awful. Ed has this one about right. For the record, I got today's match right and have MGS > GSC.

By the way, what's the general sentiment on OoT/HL/CC/FF9? If HL gets through there, FF8 is going on to the third round baby, yeah!
ad hominem
appealing to one's prejudices, emotions, or special interests rather than to one's intellect or reason.
ZFS | Posted 4/23/2009 9:07:18 PM | message detail | filter | #199
hail final fantasy down with the series that spawned bidoof

goku z | Posted 4/23/2009 9:07:54 PM | message detail | filter | #200
And whoever made the point about GSC/Xenogears, we all know Pokemon is twice as strong in four-way format. Don't be silly, now.
ad hominem
appealing to one's prejudices, emotions, or special interests rather than to one's intellect or reason.