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Best Game Ever 2 Contest Analysis Crew (Part Two)

transience | Posted 5/1/2009 2:48:27 AM | message detail | filter | #451
I'm not counting it out but given the other GTA games it seems extremely unlikely.

GOW > Oblivion here.
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xyzzy
http://www.mistwalkercorp.com/en/_src/sc569/HNI_0022.jpg
monkigrass | Posted 5/1/2009 2:50:16 AM | message detail | filter | #452
This is one close vote...Usually you can tell who wins in the first 2 hours. I'm not sure on this one.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/1/2009 7:37:48 AM | message detail | filter | #453
Man, it'd be awesome if ToS held on here. I don't expect it because Oblivion and GoW should have better day votes, but still...I knew it wasn't going to bomb like most people were expecting.
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transience | Posted 5/1/2009 1:40:55 PM | message detail | filter | #454
well, uh... at least I got first! I hope?
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xyzzy
blkmge | Posted 5/1/2009 1:51:53 PM | message detail | filter | #455
Tales of Symphonia isn't that popular at all with casual gamers, and God of War is super popular with them. That means casuals are pretty much all voting GoW, and I'm hoping ToS wins just because of that. Gamefaqs is for gamers.
transients | Posted 5/1/2009 6:05:38 PM | message detail | filter | #456
it's a good thing that GameFAQs isn't a place for casual gamers then.
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xyzzy
Ngamer64 (tc) | Posted 5/1/2009 7:08:21 PM | message detail | filter | #457
Golly, about about that "Haloish ASV" for God of War!

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The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either)
transients | Posted 5/1/2009 7:09:01 PM | message detail | filter | #458
yeah, GOW ended up with the best night vote of the bunch.

but that means it should stop the bleeding soon and make a nice comeback! well, in my dreams anyway.
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xyzzy
Lopen | Posted 5/1/2009 7:09:43 PM | message detail | filter | #459
ToS's day vote is strong, dammit! Don't bedowngrade GoW just because ToS is kicking its face in with it!
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
transients | Posted 5/1/2009 7:13:21 PM | message detail | filter | #460
Oblivion's doing just as well and even night-happy GTA is holding up. This isn't that impressive from TOS's side - it's better in the day than the night, but it's not exactly Halo.
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xyzzy
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/1/2009 7:14:25 PM | message detail | filter | #461
Arg why are we comparing day votes to Halo of all things to find out if they're good. Hey guys ToS didn't do a 3% turnaround with 80 vote gains, it has a sub-par day vote!

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
Lopen | Posted 5/1/2009 7:16:20 PM | message detail | filter | #462
These aren't exactly night heavy games, though. ToS is making a significant percentage gain/comeback in a match with 4 decent-good day vote games. That's good enough for me.

ToS haterz.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/1/2009 7:18:33 PM | message detail | filter | #463
...Why in the world does Kratos have such a great day vote but his game doesn't? Most other games we've seen so far following the trends of their characters.
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ZFS | Posted 5/1/2009 7:20:59 PM | message detail | filter | #464
Buncha Tales freakz

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transients | Posted 5/1/2009 7:21:59 PM | message detail | filter | #465
I like TOS! not like you freaks do, but it's my second favourite game in this poll.
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xyzzy
Ngamer64 (tc) | Posted 5/1/2009 7:46:09 PM | message detail | filter | #466
Hmm, not seeing any way that B8 allows ToS to lose if it comes down to the final half hour, so I guess I should say hello to my very first 0 point result in the 4way era!


(oh wait I just checked and guess I had Lucario > Marth in that R2 match where they hurt each other and instead allowed Altair and Duke to slip ahead of them. so this will be #2, shucks)

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The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either)
Master Moltar | Posted 5/1/2009 8:22:37 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #467
Division 7: Round 1 - Match 26 – Halo 2 vs. Metal Gear Solid 3 vs. Okami vs. World of Warcraft

Moltar’s Analysis

Halo 2
2004 Results: N/A

eww

MGS3
2004 Results: N/A

yay

Okami
2004 Results: N/A

yay

WoW
2004 Results: N/A

augh

This match, this match, this match. So glad we’re almost here, as I’m just about sick of hearing about this match. I swear, Blizzard fanboys can get me to root against it in every match, even in those where I have the Blizzard entrant advancing. Blah blah blah upsets blah blah blah rallies just shut up augh.

Anyway, now that we’re moving into more modern games, the games are starting to look weaker and weaker overall. MGS3 should be the strongest game here because it’s a part of the MGS franchise, which everyone knows is worth something on GameFAQs. I believe MGS3 is stronger than 2, which disappointed, so I think it’ll take first here easy.

Taking last, most likely is Okami. I think it’s being underrated here, as Ammy has impressed over the last two years. After the past week, I definitely wouldn’t count it out to beat out an overrated Halo 2 and/or WoW.

Speaking of overrated, I believe two things are being overrated here; Halo 2 hate and WoW in general. I don’t see Halo 2 being much weaker than the original Halo. A lot of casuals loved the multiplayer on Live, and also it has the benefit of being the only Xbox game this time. The jury is still out on Halo 1’s performance (how badly did KotOR split with it?), but I think Halo 2 is going to be fine here.

I’ve never bought WoW having decent strength. Any non-contest poll will show you that. Hell, the most impressive thing WoW has done is beat a Pikachu-hindered Ike. Without rallying, I’d honestly put it in contention with Okami for last. However, it’s going to get rallied. Still, rallying will only do so much. Starcraft and Diablo 2, two games that I would take over WoW, only got 27% in their matches. Plus, Diablo and Halo ended up pretty close even with KotOR potentially splitting with it.

If WoW advances here, whatever. Save us MGS3 and Halo 2!

Moltar’s Bracket Says: MGS 3 > Halo 2

Moltar’s Prediction is: MGS3: 33% - Halo 2: 24% - WoW: 23% - Okami: 20%



Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Time for the dreaded World of Warcraft match.

If there's one game in the contest that's been discussed to death, it's WoW. Everyone has an opinion on it and what it's going to do. I've said my piece on it many times before, but I'm not even sure what to expect, just because it relies on the site going against what they've said in previous polls and outside factors like rallying.

It couldn't have asked for a better draw with this competition, though. The one thing I'm fairly certain on in this match is that MGS3 is going to wreck faces -- the other three games are far too weak to be able to bother it, even if it does happen to fall under MGS2.

So the match comes down to Warcraft and Halo, two games you never want to put any kind of trust in to do what you want. Halo barely managed to scrap by KOTOR and got beat by Diablo II by a decent margin. That doesn't inspire much confidence when what is likely the strongest game in the series manages to barely scrap by weak competition.

What really makes this match for me is MGS3 -- it should by all means dominate the vote, clearly 40% without much trouble. That's not going to leave a lot of the vote to go around for everyone else, meaning that WoW doesn't need to put up 30% or whatever to advance. The less vote it needs to win, the better, because rallying can have a bigger effect and whatever hardcore WoW audience is on GameFAQs can push it even more.
Master Moltar | Posted 5/1/2009 8:23:03 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #468
But who knows what's going to happen here, I sure don't. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Okami managed to beat both Halo and Warcraft, that's just the kinda contest that's going on right now. You stick a bunch of games GameFAQs has no real attachment to and this is what happens.

Metal Gear Solid 3 -- 41%
World of Warcraft -- 23%
Halo 2 -- 22%
Okami -- 14%

Bracket: Metal Gear Solid 3 > World of Warcraft
Favorites: Metal Gear Solid 3 > Okami



Lopen’s Analysis

WORLD OF WARCRAFT.

I'm tired of talking about it at this point, but I'll give it a shot. I really don't need to glorify why I think the game is going to fail. It's not a matter of the game doing poorly in polls, it's a matter of no one on GameFAQs owning the game. All I want to know is... where are the votes going to come from when only 35% of the site has even played a game, and much less (to the tune of 7% or so) seem enthusiastic about it. The game's ceiling is practically what it needs to advance.

That's really all that I see here. People expect votes to materialize out of nowhere... I mean it's not even an attractive brand name, here. World of Warcraft is one of the most mocked games in video gaming.. associated with great accolades such as turning people into lifeless geeks, upping the percentage of overweight Americans, and countless other things to look down upon, do you really think people who haven't played the game will vote for it? Maybe Duck Hunt fans will flock to it because 90% of the enemies are ducks or dogs? Well guess what Okami DOG SFF suck it WoW.

Arthas is strong? Yeah, I'm pretty sure that hardly has anything to do with WoW. Is it any coincidence that characters who are less/not at all important to Warcraft 3 like Thrall and Hogger, that they've never looked even remotely strong.

Taking all that, a realistic expectation, before rallying, is WoW to get in the realm of 10-15% in this match. Okami isn't terribly strong... so unless you expect Halo 2 to destroy MGS3 or vice versa (not happening) then the game will need to rally upwards of 10000 votes to even get in striking distance. Maybe if the rallying is really fierce, the game will beat Okami here.

Now that we've thrown that pick out... Halo 2 vs MGS3. I was under the assumption that MGS3 would be the weakest MGS in the bracket, and that the Halo games would be pretty strong in this format. Halo didn't do too well, but as I said in the write-up for that match, KotoR was a huge vote siphon. It's not like MGS2 did too hot either. Time to gear up and take a swig of believe here, because Halo 2 is gonna rock the poll. GAME FUEL. INVINCIBLE. ETC.

Lopen's Prediction:
Halo 2 – 36.34%
Metal Gear Solid 3 – 32.61%
Okami – 16.02%
LoL – 15.03%



Transience’s Analysis

Well, here it is. World of Warcraft has been so over-discussed that most of us are absolutely sick of hearing about it. It's got an enormous range that goes from an easy r1 loss to a spot in the finals. I don't even want to write this match up because of it, but I'll do it anyway.

Let's start with the only real contest-related poll involving World of Warcraft:

Grand Theft Auto 49.56% 63051
Warcraft 50.44% 64167
TOTAL VOTES 127218

We've seen every GTA game now so we can properly judge this poll. None of them were particularly impressive - GTA3 lost to KOTOR, GTA:SA lost to Tales of Symphonia and Vice City squeaked out a win vs. Metroid Prime that may or may not have been hurt by Paper Mario. (I lean towards no.) Beating GTA is not a particularly impressive performance like we believed once upon a time, and that match against Mario Bros. makes a lot more sense now: Warcraft is a mid-tier entry at best.
Master Moltar | Posted 5/1/2009 8:23:44 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #469
Fortunately for World of Warcraft, Halo isn't looking too hot either. Halo 1 went against GTA3 the other day and won by 4500 votes - a couple percent better than what the entire GTA series was able to against Warcraft. Extrapolating off this, it's probably safe to say that Halo 1 and 2006 Warcraft were about equal, maybe a slight edge to Halo.

So it comes down to this -- can Halo 2 compete with Halo 1?

I've heard people say Halo 2 is the black sheep on the series, but I never got that impression. I do think it's weaker than Halo 1, but I don't think it'd be by a very notable margin. Halo 2 was *the* console online deathmatch game from what I understand, and I think that makes it a favourite for a lot of people.

Regardless, I don't think it can stand up to Warcraft in a fourway setting. This format is just tailor-made for Warcraft to do well in. I hope it's close though because I want to see Halo's day vote go against all the MMO freaks.

Of course, Metal Gear Solid 3 should do well in this poll. It's the only game with a real fanbase behind it on GameFAQs. Okami's got a fanbase but it's pretty niche. Despite their casual popularity, Halo and Warcraft are not particularly loved titles on this site. That leaves MGS3, a game that *should* look good. MGS1 and 2 have only done average though so I wouldn't be too surprised if MGS3 dropped the ball and ended up close to these other mid-tier games.

Anyway, let's get this match over so we can stop talking about it.

transience's prediction:

Halo 2 - 23%
Metal Gear Solid 3 - 35%
Okami - 18%
World of Warcraft - 24%



Leon’s Analysis

Halo 2: This match contains a rematch of 2004 GOTY contenders, but this time, we’re going to have a different result! Halo 2 easily beat Snake Eater the first time around, but that was when Metal Gear Solid as a series was at an all-time low. It’s already proven that it’s better than what it was back then. Halo 2 should not be stronger than the original by any means. As an aside, do you guys remember when some people were pushing for Halo 2 to make the Top Ten List in 2005 as a write-in and it ended up in the 80s? Whew, I’d feel silly if I had been one of those people! I only mention that because there’s not really much to analyze about this match. We don’t have much data about any of the contenders because we’re now in a division of games that didn’t exist the first time we had this contest! In any event, I think Halo 2 takes second here, though I can’t deny the possibility it gets first because, as Ric Flair used to say, “In order to BE the man, you gotta BEAT the man!”

Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater: This game is one of my all-time favorites, so this analysis MAY be a tad biased, but hey, it’s worked out for me in the past! I think Snake Eater takes first place fairly easily here. As I already said, MGS as a whole has taken a big leap since 2004, and MGS3 should be a beneficiary of that. I also fully expect it to be stronger than MGS2. Heck, it beat it by 20 spots on THE LIST, if I recall correctly (Whoo, two list references in one write-up! I’m turning into HaRRicH here!), so it definitely seems to have a more hardcore group of fans. Sure, it doesn’t have the sales of MGS2, but it doesn’t need them. It’s not like it didn’t sell well, just not as well as MGS1 or MGS2 (but not many games do!). Anyway, Snake Eater should be feeding on a tree frog all day long on its way to victory here!

Okami: Amaterasu is surprisingly popular around these parts, and there’s gotta be a reason for that, right? Okami can’t be TOO weak, I don’t think, although Ammy’s design is probably part of her appeal. It may be one of those things where the character is stronger than the game. Okami’s got no shot of advancing here, though I won’t be surprised if it outdoes World of Warcraft here!
Master Moltar | Posted 5/1/2009 8:24:14 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #470
World of Warcraft: This game got a lot of hype pre-contest based on absolutely nothing. Rallying power only matters if you’re not down thousands and tens of thousands of votes. You can ask StarCraft about that one. If you’re just not strong enough, rallying is ineffective, and I believe that’s the boat WoW finds itself in. I have no reason to believe it’s that strong around here, and don’t even start with the old “The format helps it!” argument because it’s already fallen flat on its face when StarCraft got owned. I’m confident World of Warcraft does nothing here. I’ll even go so far as to say that it’s got a better shot at getting last place than advancing, but then again, I was very confident that Grand Theft Auto would beat Warcraft in the Series Contest, so what do I know?

Leonhart’s Vote: SNAAAAAAAAAAAKE EAAAAATERRRRRRR!

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Halo 2 – 28.11%
Metal Gear Solid 3 – 34.11%
Okami – 18.67%
World of Warcraft – 19.11%



Ed Bellis’s Analysis

After today’s shakeup, this should – hopefully – be an easy match to call, based on past performances. We’ve already seen that Diablo II > Halo, and since Halo 2 is likely weaker than Halo 1 and World of Warcraft is probably stronger than D2, it stands to reason that WoW > Halo 2. (This line of logic falls apart when you consider that we know next to nothing about either game, but hey!)

Metal Gear Solid 3 is another unknown entity. I’m willing to bet it’s pretty strong, though – unlike MGS2, 3 has virtually no detractors and a solid fanbase all its own. It likely takes first here.

The real question is: how much does World of Warcraft need to be a threat in the later rounds? I’m still stubbornly banking on it, so I’ll say it needs to come within three percent of SNAAAAAKE EAAAAATAH to stand a chance in later rounds. (This is all neglecting to take the WHOAMG TUESDAY EFFECT into consideration.)

I fully expect tomorrow to be filled with mass flaming, trolling, and Albion tearing his quad.

Prediction: shades of HOGGER
Halo 2 with 21.17%
Metal Gear Solid 3 with 35.81%
Okami with 12.25%
World of Warcraft with 30.77%



Guest’s Analysis - KleenexTissue50

Oh hey, back again. Didn't I just do one of these? Oh well. This match is going to be one holy hell of a mess. This might be "the most anticipated match of the contest". Half of the pre-contest banter was about how WoW would do. Granted, half that ranting was by one person, but regardless. Anyone who says they aren't interested to see what happens here is lying.

So what does happen? Well, Halo nearly flopped a few days ago, and even then it only managed second place. Again what? A Blizzard game. Hmmm. StarCraft disappointed, Diablo II did well. Hmmm. Metal Gear Solid 2 didn't do as well against FFX as expected. Hmmm. I'm not going to count anything out here. Okami could very well advance today. We just saw a game no one but the crazies though would move on nearly (or actually, writing this in the very bowels of the ASV!) make it to the second round.
Master Moltar | Posted 5/1/2009 8:24:54 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #471
This year, I've taken Halo to flop in every way possible. I have Halo 2 out here in my bracket and I have Halo 3 losing to Left 4 Dead of all things. So we're going to stick with that. Halo 2 doesn't advance. Hell, Halo 2 might come in last here. This fight is probably between MGS3 and WoW. Now, I personally think that MGS3 is the weakest of the four. How much weaker, I don't know. Weak enough to lose to WoW? Well...probably not. If WoW takes first here, I think we're all going to be in big trouble.

The only thing I can say for certain is that the stats topic is going to be absolutely unbearable tomorrow. I think you know why.

Kleenex's Prediction
Halo 2 - 24.65%
Metal Gear Solid 3 - 35.44%
Okami - 13.81%
World of Warcraft - 26.10%



Crew Consensus: MGS3 > WoW is the majority, but MGS3 > Halo 2 and Halo 2 > MGS3 are also represented.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/1/2009 8:29:06 PM | message detail | filter | #472
The only thing I can say for certain is that the stats topic is going to be absolutely unbearable tomorrow. I think you know why.

kek
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif
transients | Posted 5/1/2009 8:29:49 PM | message detail | filter | #473
whoa Halo 2 > MGS3

I'm sooner expecting MGS3 > Okami! ohhhhh
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/1/2009 8:33:10 PM | message detail | filter | #474
If people just ignore Albion's ridiculous claims, the stats topic will be fine.

And if WoW bombs, the stats topic will be wonderful.
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transients | Posted 5/1/2009 8:33:50 PM | message detail | filter | #475
we're so biased against this damn game. hype can be brutal.

I don't really care if it wins or loses, I just want to get it over with.
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xyzzy
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/1/2009 8:34:12 PM | message detail | filter | #476
I really doubt MGS3 is the weakest of the series.

But SA is apparently the weakest of second weakest of its series, and it had every possible advantage you could possibly ask for to succeed. So I suppose I shouldn't rule it out.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/1/2009 8:36:31 PM | message detail | filter | #477

From: LeonhartFour | #474
If people just ignore Albion's ridiculous claims, the stats topic will be fine.

And if WoW bombs, the stats topic will be wonderful.


But if WoW wins it over MGS3...
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif
The Real Truth | Posted 5/1/2009 8:45:31 PM | message detail | filter | #478
Good chance Halo 2 takes first in this match. Maybe not. Who knows.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/1/2009 9:03:15 PM | message detail | filter | #479
I just realized me and tranny are tied for the lowest SA picks.

With 28% way to suck SA.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
Gaddswell | Posted 5/1/2009 9:06:26 PM | message detail | filter | #480
Should've had Albion do an extra special guest write up today!
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Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!
Ngamer64 (tc) | Posted 5/1/2009 11:12:00 PM | message detail | filter | #481
Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup

Haha, yet another awesome match. People keep bashing these close ones with all this "all the options are weak, weeeeeak!" kind of talk, but I say "meh" to that. I mean these polls are still drawing a very nice 120k votes so it's not as though the site doesn't care whatsoever about the games. I just wish we could have seen some of these supposedly "weak" games go up against some of the classics of the past, like your Super Metroids or your Tetrises, so we could have gotten a real reading on where they stand. But anyways, yeah, I'm still absolutely shocked by that ASV... how does GoW do NOTHING with it when Kratos is one of the biggest afternoon studs we've seen? How does Oblivion continue to win despite being a semi-cultish RPG? And how does SA- alright, alright, so we've already beaten that horse to death. *gives GTA one last kick for good measure* And of course it's pretty funny to see ToS pulling a Phoenix Wright here and holding off the casual choice with a steady couple hundred barrier... yes sir, 4ways can certainly make for enjoyable R1 outings!

Before we get started on tonight's match properly let me just give a silent salute to the guys responsible for that match pic (and SB for making the right choices). Just an excellent, excellent piece of work right there- Okami gets to pull the full wolf shirt appeal that has worked so well for Ammy, WoW is awarded with the look that bailed out Arthas against Ike, Halo gets that very recognizable box art that did wonders for MC in '07, and MGS3 looks best of all in sporting that extremely iconic Snake Salute. This is exactly what match pics ought to look like [i]every night[/i]- all the characters/games sporting their best and most recognizable looks, no "pic factor" having to come into play because everyone comes across as awesome right across the board.

Soooo, I took WoW in my bracket but lost a ton of faith in that choice after seeing SC get smoked (despite the common assumption that this format was going to do wonders for Blizzard), and even though Diablo managed that win it didn't inspire a ton of confidence either. Especially when you consider that I'm sure both SC and Diablo are miles ahead of WoW in terms of legit popularity on this site. HOWEVER, MGS3 looks very good in the pic, has no haters and a super-dedicated fanbase, so I think it could pull a solid 35% or so here. And Okami is not going to roll over and die; it's the only option to appear on a Nintendo console, is sporting full on Ammy apeal, and we've already seen many examples of semi-cultish games holding up great against modern competition, so I think it might be able to push towards the 20% mark.

And that would mean WoW would need only 23% or thereabouts in order to advance... after we've already seen SC manage 28 and Diablo pull down about 27. I'm a long ways from a Warcraft fan, but I do think the game will be up to that task, especially considering that it just makes sense for Blizzard rallying to be super-effective against competition like Halo. We're already seen it work out twice, and so the only way I see Halo keeping it from happening a third time is by blowing past WoW early and never looking back, which I just don't think it can do. My biggest hope for this match though is that WoW builds up a huge overnight lead before H2 pulls one of the most frightening comebacks in history with the ASV. Seems highly possible considering none of these other options should be beasts with the Day Vote!

In any case though I think WoW rallies its way to a win in the last half hour if this is at all in question, which is why I'm going with:

Metal Gear Solid 3 - 34.91%
World of Warcraft - 23.11%
Halo 2 - 22.97%
Okami - 19.01%

24 hours of Albion, here we go!

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The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either)
transience | Posted 5/1/2009 11:35:43 PM | message detail | filter | #482
for all the hype, this match is boring and predictable.
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yzzyx
Ngamer64 (tc) | Posted 5/1/2009 11:40:39 PM | message detail | filter | #483
Ehh, there were alot of people saying WoW was only half as strong as Diablo, Halo was losing too much Xbox support to KotOR, H2 was going to stomp all over Warcraft once this poll opened up. I wouldn't say the current result is overly predictable, it's just a matter of us having mostly called it right (for once).

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The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either)
Master Moltar | Posted 5/2/2009 1:22:34 AM | message detail | delete | filter | #484
God of War------------------------------24.81% 29469
Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas-------23.4% 27797
Tales of Symphonia------------------------25% 29700
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion--------26.79% 31825
TOTAL VOTES----------------------------------118791

Matches Completely Correct - 13
Matches Partially Correct - 12
Matches Completely Wrong - 0

What Happened - Uh...wow. All these games started off close and ended up even closer. The big shocker here is ToS, which managed to take second. Oblivion took first, but even it ended up close to ToS. GoW and SA, the bracket favorites to advance, end up failing to meet expectations.


Why it Happened - Because weak four-pack is weak. GTA has certainly fallen off, but man, this far? GoW never shined in multi-way polls, but failing to place in this fourpack? When ToS gets a quarter of the vote, you know something is wrong (and I love the game).


What Will Happen - I wonder if Oblivion or ToS can make it out of the Round 2 match. Neither look too hot.


Crew Prediction Challenge - darn you everything

Tran - 15
HM - 15
Guest - 15
Moltar - 12
Ed - 11
Leon - 11
Lopen - 10


Crew Accuracy Challenge - Tran and KP get points for GTA, Moltar and HM get points for Oblivion, Ed gets the point for GoW, and KP gets the point for ToS

Moltar - 27
HM - 23
Tran - 19
Leon - 12
Guest (Luster, Zylo (3), HaRR, Kleenex, Soul, TRT, KP (3), Chaotic) - 12
Lopen - 11
Ed - 11
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Moltar Status: ahh, there you are
Match 26 - Bracket: MGS3 > Halo 2 - Vote: MGS3 (69/100)
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/2/2009 12:43:08 PM | message detail | filter | #485
I wonder if Oblivion or ToS can make it out of the Round 2 match. Neither look too hot.

Psh, Oblivion/WoW LFF to allow ToS into round 3!

But wait, Halo 2's trying to come back!
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Master Moltar | Posted 5/2/2009 12:53:11 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #486
ToS in Round 3 i support this
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Moltar Status: ahh, there you are
Match 26 - Bracket: MGS3 > Halo 2 - Vote: MGS3 (69/100)
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/2/2009 8:11:32 PM | message detail | filter | #487
ToS in R3 is entirely plausible on a normal level (who would've thought!), and I will be entirely disappointed if me and Lopen are the only ones who take it.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
Master Moltar | Posted 5/2/2009 8:30:50 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #488
Division 7: Round 1 - Match 27 – Gears of War vs. Kingdom Hearts II vs. Resident Evil 4 vs. Shadow of the Colossus

Moltar’s Analysis

Gears of War
2004 Results: N/A

Chainsaw

KH2
2004 Results: N/A

No chainsaw

RE4
2004 Results: N/A

Chainsaw

SotC
2004 Results: N/A

No Chainsaw

Tran’s analysis sums up this match pretty much, but here’s the ‘tl;dr’ version.

This is a match between KH2 and RE4. Gears should be a distant third with the way ‘shooters that casuals love’ have been looking. Gears 2 also wasn’t well-received and Fenix isn’t worth much, so I think it’s safe to say it won’t be doing anything here. I wouldn’t be surprised if SotC beat it, as the game shouldn’t do too badly here.

But RE4 and KH2 are the games to watch here. RE4 is getting talked up a lot for its position on the almighty LIST and its performance in the Game of the Century poll. Plus it turned Leon into an upper-midcarder and allowed for Ada to beat a Final Fantasy character (yeah you know you like that spin).

Even if you don’t buy into that, RE4 is still remembered well today. I don’t think it’s something like GTA were GameFAQs has just completely abandoned it. RE is still popular on GameFAQs, and with RE5 less than 2 months old (and RE4 > RE5 being a popular sentiment), RE4 is still relevant.

KH2 is weird though. Yes Sora and other KH characters have looked better since its release, and yes the original KH did just fine in its match, but something just seems weird with it. It’s losses to FF12 back in 2006 are a bit jarring, but FF12 was the more recent game at the time. Still, it could also mean that KH2 isn’t as strong as the first game, which would definitely put it out of contention for first here.

RE4 > KH2 looks good to me here. Old RE didn’t do well, but RE4 is a completely different beast. KH2 should still do well though because Square has been looking very fine so far.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: RE4 > KH2

Moltar’s Prediction is: RE4: 40% - KH2: 30% - Gears of War: 18% - SotC: 12%



Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Aaaand we're back to the good matches! Although 'good' for me is probably different than most! Close matches that don't mean much who needs these !

Today shouldn't be all that exciting by any standard, though, unless one of two things happen -- KH2 ends up being much weaker than anticipated, or Resident Evil 4 completely bombs. Either result could mean big things in round 2 depending on how the next match goes. But odds are good we won't see anything out of the ordinary here.

Still, if anything does happen, I've got my money on Kingdom Hearts pulling off an upset. Most would probably laugh at the idea, but I've always been skeptical of RE4 once we started hailing it as a top ten game that can hang with the likes of Final Fantasy X. I have no doubts that it's a strong game -- top 20 guaranteed -- but I think it's being overestimated in a big way. I think it'll win today without much of a struggle, but color me surprised if KH2 doesn't make it decently close.

The thing for me is that non-Nintendo, non-Square games are bombing left and right. The whole modern era looks like one big bust after the past few matches. That's not to say RE4 is going to join them, not even close, but it's easy to have some doubts after seeing most games of its ilk underperform, not even to mention other Resident Evil games.

We'll see how it goes. I think RE4 takes an easy win with KH2 not too far behind. Gears and Shadow of the Colossus are pretty much non-factors here, although it'd be great for SOTC to try to fight for third -- best game in the poll, folks !
Master Moltar | Posted 5/2/2009 8:31:10 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #489
Resident Evil 4 -- 38%
Kingdom Hearts II -- 32%
Gears of War -- 17%
Shadow of the Colossus -- 13%

Bracket: Resident Evil 4 > Kingdom Hearts II
Favorites: Shadow of the Colossus > Kingdom Hearts II



Lopen’s Analysis

KH2, packed full of familiar faces, will come up just short of a game that revitalized worn out places and worn out faces in RE4. While Horse Riding Simulator 5000 is bright and early to the daily races, it'll be going nowhere, going nowhere.

I find it kind of funny, and I find it kind of sad. Gears of War could've done much better somewhere else, but instead it's going to hide its head and drown its sorrow, as there is no round 2 nor tomorrow for it in this contest.

Children will be waiting till the day vote when they feel good, voting Kingdom Hearts. But it won't matter. RE4 will take too big a vote overnight while said kids are dreaming about themselves dying. No real data to support this either way... they've both looked really good. Mr. Kennedy, Sora, Game of the Century, and all that good stuff. RPGs have been tearing it up this contest, but RE4 comes off as the more popular game to me overall. Go with your gut here. I'm going with MISTAHHHH... KENNEDY!!!

KENNEDY!

Lopen's prediction:
Resident Evil 4 – 34.03%
Kingdom Hearts 2 – 31.03%
Gears of War – 22.91%
Horse Riding Simulator 5000 – 12.03%



Transience’s Analysis

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3b8G8delDlk

Nothing more needs to be said.

SHOOT EM IN THE HEAD
THIS AIN'T A CUTSCENE, PRESS A
SHOOT EM IN THE HEAD

transience's prediction:

Resident Evil 4 - 38%
Kingdom Hearts II - 31%
Gears of War - 19%
Shadow of the Colossus - 12%



Leon’s Analysis

Gears of War: Gears of War did pretty well on Final Fantasy XII in the 2006 GOTY poll, and FFXII beat KHII pretty easily in the PS2 GOTY poll. That should mean an easy win for Gears of War, right? Not so fast, my friend! </Lee Corso> I doubt Gears has maintained that level of strength within the last three years. Plus, FPS games have been disappointing left and right so far, so that doesn’t bode well for it. I suppose I wouldn’t be surprised if Gears of War took second place here because the evidence seems to support it, but to me, Kingdom Hearts II beating it seems like more of a common sense pick. I could be wrong here, but still.

Kingdom Hearts II: This is one of those highly hyped sequels that got hyped a little too much and ended up being considered a disappointment as a result. I personally loved Kingdom Hearts II, but I think the general consensus is that the original is better. We know that this game played a large role in Kingdom Hearts characters being what they are today and its overwhelmingly powerful day vote (Only Halo and Pokemon are in the same league with it in that regard). Sora in particular has become a beast in these contests since it came out (Probably due to being LIKABLE in it!). That in particular makes me think that KHII will be strong enough to advance. Also, the series of 2 ½ games (I don’t count Chains of Memories as a full game) was able to beat Castlevania when a series of 2 Halo games was not. That has to mean something, doesn’t it? That loss to FFXII in the 2006 PS2 GOTY poll is troubling, to be sure, but Kingdom Hearts will always be less popular than Final Fantasy and maybe it got rSFF’d or something! Okay, that’s a stretch, but I think KHII can handle Gears of War for second place here.
Master Moltar | Posted 5/2/2009 8:31:50 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #490
Resident Evil 4: Resident Evil 4 is one of the potential candidates to make it to the finals with Final Fantasy VII, Ocarina of Time, and Link to the Past/Mario 3, and now it has to prove it’s worthy of the consideration. Final Fantasy X did its job well, so RE4 can’t afford to disappoint here. Resident Evil 1 and 2 both disappointed in advantageous positions, but I think RE4 is on an entirely different level than the rest of the series. There’s a reason why Leon Kennedy is a strong high midcarder while the rest of the cast are low midcarders at best. I don’t think it should have any problem winning this poll with ease, but if it does, you can forget about it making the finals. This pack is too weak for that.

Shadow of the Colossus: Shadow of the Colossus to get a boost based on hype from the announced movie, brought to you by the guy who gave you such classics as that Street Fighter movie about Chun-Li! Watch out, FFVII!

Leonhart’s Vote: Kingdom Hearts II, easy as a Reaction Command!

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Gears of War – 22.99%
Kingdom Hearts II – 27.24%
Resident Evil 4 – 39.14%
Shadow of the Colossus – 10.63%



Ed Bellis’s Analysis

This match is gonna be TWELVE KINDS OF WACKINESS !!

Gears of War. Call me a whacko, a pinko, a pachinko, what have you, but I’m banking on Gears of War to do very well in this format. The site seems high on the 360 lately, if the character contests are any indication, and the format should only give Gears of War some decent strength… that’s what I’d be saying if Halo didn’t suck to holy heaven earlier. Oh well I AM A STUBBORN MAN

Kingdom Hearts II. Pre-contest: KH2 can’t possibly be stronger than KH1!

Mid-contest: BAAAAAHHHHH

KH2 should probably be relatively strong, considering how Square’s been taking ass and kicking names thus far. I’ll still take GoW over it, but barely.

Resident Evil 4. I’ll admit that I’m buying into THA HYPE for RE4, and I’m probably adding a bit of it myself. I could easily see it being a top 10 game in this contest, and I’d probably take it over the likes of Wind Waker and Twilight Princess (the latter of which I think is waaaay overhyped). We’ll see how wrong I am !!

Shadow of the Colossus. who cares LOL

RE4 takes first convincingly, Gears of War and Hingdom Karts pal around in second and third. BOOK IT

Prediction: I SAID BOOK IT GOSHDARNIT
Gears of War with 25.25%
Kingdom Hearts II with 24.24%
Resident Evil 4 with 39.66%
Shadow of the Colossus with 10.85%



Crew Consensus: RE4 > KH2 is near unamious, but then we have one Ed Bellis of an upset pick with RE4 > Gears
GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/2/2009 8:48:09 PM | message detail | filter | #491
I.m the [drunk] guest write up


I think kids jumping on trampolines will get mental illnesses forever. It messes with their heads real hard.

And about the match, RE4 will do good, but not enough to be all dominant princess or anything. IT WON'T PLAY THE DOMINANT PRINCESS. KHII gets second.


Gears of War - 20.38%
Kingdom Hearts II - 32.17%
Resident Evil 4 - 34.92%
Shadow of the Colossus - 12.53%
transience | Posted 5/2/2009 9:21:29 PM | message detail | filter | #492
whoa, Gears > KH2? ballsy. go go Ed!
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xyzzy
http://www.mistwalkercorp.com/en/_src/sc569/HNI_0022.jpg
GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/2/2009 9:30:44 PM | message detail | filter | #493
go go guest write-up
The Real Truth | Posted 5/2/2009 9:52:52 PM | message detail | filter | #494
RE4 shoots for the moon here
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GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site. -CJayC
Master Moltar | Posted 5/2/2009 9:57:53 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #495
hoping for a leon/riku-esque beating here

c'mon re4, show us you mean business!
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Moltar Status: ahh, there you are
Match 26 - Bracket: MGS3 > Halo 2 - Vote: MGS3 (69/100)
transience | Posted 5/2/2009 10:16:11 PM | message detail | filter | #496
I forgot about Leon/Riku. let's go blowout
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xyzzy
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7033/trannyanalysis.png
Ngamer64 (tc) | Posted 5/2/2009 10:56:08 PM | message detail | filter | #497
Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup

Grrrr, so upset at Halo right now. Sure, I picked it to lose in both my Oracle and my bracket and it's living up to that billing, but if it could just have been a little less pathetic I'd be right in line for a perfect prediction here (think I'm like .41 off on MGS3 and .15 off Okami or something). But yeah, sub 22 in a match where it's the only Xbox option AND only shooter option is just nuts to me... how do you go from hanging tight with Snake in '07 to THIS in only two short years, especially considering how Xbox systems have never been more popular on this site than right now? The other strange thing is that despite WoW needing a "massive rally" to have any kind of strength and despite Halo's supposed casual appeal, this is going to be the least popular match in like a week and a half. Hmm... anyways kudos to Okami for validating itself as a legit midcarder for the third straight year, and to MGS3 for putting on a show that has us wondering if maybe it IS the 2nd most popular of the series.

Now then, tonight has me a little bit frightened. I'm a firm believer in RE4, but even so I'm very much surprised that no one seems to be giving KHII any real kind of chance at the win in this one. I mean RE4 has some things going in its favor (only option to make it to a Nintendo console, RE5 still bringing in visitors, RE1 and 2 looked decentish and 4 will of course be well ahead of them, KH has to split with another PS2 game), but it seems like a really good case for could also be made for Kingdom Hearts:

* KHII sold nearly as well as the original, is owned by even more people on My Games, reviews between the two are about the same... if there's any series where the sequel could be just as strong as the first, I'd think it would have to be KH

* New Square RPGs have been on fire- we vastly underestimated FF8, yet refused to adjust our thinking and have ended up underestimating FF9, FFX, and KH1 as well. shouldn't we start giving them more credit at some point?

* KH1 put up 38% against what I would still argue wasn't terrible competition. it pounded Vice City straight up despite having to share the poll with another "kiddie" RPG (granted a win over GTA doesn't look that amazing anymore, but still, it was a slaughter) and even outdid Metroid Prime and Mario RPG combined. yeah yeah, everyone's been kicking Prime in the sack for the last week, but come on, isn't there a limit to how weak it could realistically be?

* RE4 isn't really survival-horror, it's more of a shooter, and shooters have been bombing right and left this season. plus I'd have to imagine that there are a ton of RE4 fans who also enjoy Gear of War and vice versa- sure they're on different platforms, but I would still imagine there's a decent bit of overlap between the two (whereas KHII and SotC are such vastly different games that I doubt it has the same problem)

So yeah, I still think RE4 is quite strong (and pretty independent) and don't disagree with those who took it to make a deep run into this bracket... I just don't think that tonight's poll provides ideal circumstances for it, and as a result I don't think it's going to be blowing KH2 out of the water. I'll go with

Resident Evil 4 - 35.91%
Kingdom Hearts II - 32.29%
Gears of War - 19.97%
Shadow of the Colossus - 11.83%

Don't flop on me now, KH! (Watch, it somehow will- this series always does just the opposite of what I expect!)

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The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either)
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/2/2009 10:58:04 PM | message detail | filter | #498
Someone should probably make the next topic like right now.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
transience | Posted 5/2/2009 11:06:38 PM | message detail | filter | #499
Ngamer more like not as good of an oracle as me
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg
transience | Posted 5/2/2009 11:06:49 PM | message detail | filter | #500
THIS AIN'T A CUTSCENE PRESS A
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xyzzy
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7033/trannyanalysis.png