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Division 3: Round 1 - Match 9 – Gunstar Heroes vs. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 vs. Super Mario Kart vs. Super Metroid

Moltar’s Analysis

Gunstar Heroes
2004 Results: Lost in Round 1 against Link to the Past

Really fun game. Really weak game.

Sonic 3
2004 Results: N/A

Should be Sonic 3 + Sonic and Knuckles. Would of won the contest right there.

Super Mario Kart
2004 Results: N/A

The first entry in the extremely popular Mario Kart franchise

Super Metroid
2004 Results: Won in Round 1 against Phantasy Star IV
Lost in Round 2 against Link to the Past

all hail the queen

Wow, this is the most stacked match yet. 3 games that deserve a shot in Round 2, but only 2 will move on. The one that isn’t is Gunstar Heroes. It failed to put up 10% on LttP, and even a SFF-wrecked Super Metroid avoided the tripling from LttP.

The other three could place in practically any order. Sonic 3 is old-school Sonic so it shouldn’t do badly, and we’ve already seen Sonic 1 surpass expectations. Super Mario Kart is a popular title and the series continues to remain relevant with casuals today. Super Metroid is arguably the strongest Metroid title.

So out of the three games, Super Mario Kart is the game that has the least chance of placing to me. Check almost any poll Mario Kart is in, especially the bigger multi-option ones. It always performs poorly. I think it’s one of those series that people know about and like, but it falters in front of anything that actually has a decent fanbase, which Sonic and Metroid do.

So between Super Metroid and Sonic 3, give me the former. There is a possibility that SMK will hurt Metroid, but if that’s the case, Sonic 3 also isn’t getting away from that unscathed. Sonic 3, like 1, should have decent strength, but Super Metroid is just a bit too much for it.

Even the 2004 contest (yeah yeah old stuff) favors Super Metroid. SM got 26% on LttP, despite SFF, and that was the 4th strongest game in the Contest. Sonic 2 got 30% on Super Mario World, despite SFF, and that was…not the 4th strongest game. Now throw in the fact that Sonic 2 is a bit stronger than 3 and it looks even worse for Sonic. Hell, SM’s result is even more impressive knowing how badly Metroid usually folds to LoZ. Mario/Sonic is bad too, but LoZ shows no mercy.

So yeah, Super Metroid should look pretty good in this match. Super Mario Kart is going to disappoint, and Sonic 3 should do alright. Super Metroid is looking really good as long as it can keep away from Zelda.

*checks next match*

‘whoops’

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Super Metroid > Sonic 3

Moltar’s Prediction is: Super Metroid: 39% - Sonic 3: 32% - SMK: 23% - Gunstar Heroes: 6%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Today's the first real match of the contest. The big three games here all have a shot at placing in any order. Before Sonic 1 beat Street Fighter with ease, I think at best this was a fight for second, but afterward, most people will probably go with Sonic 3 in first and either Metroid or Mario Kart in second.

But the problem I have with Sonic in this match is that it's up against two other Nintendo games. We know that Sonic is essentially a Nintendo character at this point, and we've seen his games be brutalized by SFF when they run into Mario, so it's not a stretch to expect another Sonic game to be hurt. I don't think it'll be anywhere near as severe, and it'd be doubtful that Sonic doesn't place, but I'm not gonna take him for first here -- instead, a close second.

The other big fight here is between Metroid and Mario Kart. The Nintendo heirarchy goes Zelda > Mario > Metroid, so depending on how much Mario you think Mario Kart is, you could make the argument that Metroid will be hurt, and maybe even reversed SFF, here. I don't think so, though. We haven't ever seen Mario Kart games before, and I don't have much faith in them being worth much. They're fun games, but no one is a Mario Kart freak.

On the other hand, Super Metroid is adored -- it's one of the highest rated games on the site, one of the highest rated games by critics, and always on reader/professional top 20 lists. It's not going to have a chance to show it here, but Super Metroid is probably a top tier game in this contest. Not up there around the top 10, but I'd put it up around the top 20.

The short version -- I think Metroid comes in first and Sonic comes in a close second. Two other Nintendo games in the poll will hurt, though not kill, Sonic enough to keep him from winning. Then Super Metroid being the bigger, more loved game will give it the advantage over Mario Kart, on top of doubts about it having serious strength.

Super Metroid -- 35%
Sonic 3 -- 33%
Super Mario Kart -- 25%
Gunstar Heroes -- 7%

Bracket: Super Metroid > Super Mario Kart
Favorites: Super Metroid > > > the rest

Lopen’s Analysis

Well I think that the racing LFF comes through here when Sonic collides with Super Mario Kart. The speed freaks are wondering if Sonic is faster than a kart, and then decide to forget everything and vote for Gunstar Heroes, but Gunstar Heroes, being a game abo--

Sorry, I'm just rambling for filler. I suppose this match is debatable, but I'm not seeing it. Super Metroid was a huge SNES game back in the day (see also: THE LIST). Don't let the match with LttP from 5 years ago fool you. Sonic 3, especially being denied the Knuckles cred, should be the weakest Sonic game by a good margin. It sold the worst of the trilogy by far, isn't “the first”, and to my knowledge wasn't bundled with the Genesis in any deals for any long period of time unlike the other two games. Oh, and in a favorite Sonic poll it scraped by Sonic 1 but was trounced by Sonic 2. If nothing else, just think of this like Sonic vs Samus if you must.

I don't think many here are humoring taking Super Mario Kart... but in case they are: My intuition when it comes to Mario Kart is “don't trust it when big boys are around.” Take SMK vs Mega Man in the series contest for example: Everything pointed to SMK having a chance there, but Mega Man just manhandled it. I don't think it has the fanbase to stand up against one of the top SNES games or a Sonic game.

Lopen's Prediction:
Super Metroid – 39.13%
Sonic 3 – 32.44%
Super Mario Kart – 22.09%
Rocket Lawn Chair... hold on, that's not even the right reference is it? – 6.34%

Transience’s Analysis

Today's match is the first true good match of the contest -- there's three games that could place in any order. This isn't some crappy battle for second place or a match that lets us gauge a game by how much it dominates its competition -- this is just plain unpredictable. This match will probably be over in the first few minutes, but who knows how GF will vote.

For starters, we've got two Nintendo games, Super Metroid and Mario Kart. People see Mario and Samus and instantly jump to the worst conclusions. This isn't Mario and Samus though, it's Samus's top game (or at the very worst, second) vs. a Mario spinoff that I don't have a lot of faith in. Metroid won't just fold to anything -

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1128
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1870

Mario lost twice, and handily. Mario Kart isn't as popular on GameFAQs as Super Metroid, so I'm not too worried about it. Mario Kart could surprise -- it is definitely a casual favourite -- but after it lost handily to Mega Man (who's looked awful since 2006), I don't have much faith in the spinoff. Plus, it hasn't aged well. Most people these days think of Mario Kart 64 as the premiere game while Super Metroid and Sonic 3 are the top dogs of their series.

So then, the next question - does Mario Kart hold back Super Metroid?

Normally I would say yes. Two Nintendo games on the SNES, both pretty popular. But there's that 2004 match between Mario World and Sonic 2 that lingers - people seem absolutely convinced that Mario World did something to Sonic 2. If this is true, why wouldn't another Nintendo title do something? Plus, Sonic's also got to deal with Gunstar Heroes - not the strongest game ever or anything, but it does have a pretty fanatical Genesis fanbase behind it. Then again, LTTP tore it apart in 2004 so it probably isn't THAT fanatical. Gunstar Heroes should go down pretty easily.

So in my mind, any fanbase leeching is minimal. The sheer SNES > Genesis bias on this site should make up for there being two SNES games anyway. This comes down to one thing for me: which series is more popular, Metroid or Sonic? Metroid has looked good this contest and so has Sonic. Samus has always gotten the best of Sonic, especially that 2004 match where Samus just crushed Sonic and never looked back. But that's characters and not games, and Samus has the whole SSB thing and character design going for her. So it's tough to say anything definitively there.

I do think this, though: Sonic will struggle when put up against a core Nintendo series. A lot of Sonic's fanbase are Nintendo fans and if you take those away, Sonic's going to struggle. Metroid may not be big enough to qualify as a huge series, but on GameFAQs it should be enough. Plus, Super Metroid finished higher than Sonic 2 on The List despite there being two other Metroid games on the drop-down box. I simply think Super Metroid is more of a fan-fave and I'll leave it at that - this writeup is pure rambling anyway, since I really have no idea what's going to happen!

Metroid gets to shine
no Zelda to ruin it
just Mario Kart

transience's prediction:

Super Metroid with 39%
Sonic 3 with 33%
Mario Kart with 22%
Gunstar Heroes with 6%

Leon’s Analysis

Gunstar Heroes: The game got 8.85% on Link to the Past in the first Games Contest. That’s not good, no matter how you slice it. Plus, it’s a Genesis game going up against a Sonic game. Ask Shining Force how that worked out (Hint: Not good). I have Gunstar Super Heroes for my GBA, but I’ve never played it. I should try it out sometime.

Sonic the Hedgehog 3: Man, why isn’t this Sonic 3 & Knuckles? Just askin’. Until recently, I’ve thought that Sonic 3 would take advantage of the LFF split between Mario Kart and Super Metroid to take first place. I’ve since reconsidered that decision. For some reason, I just don’t have confidence in Sonic 3 to do it. I’m almost positive Super Metroid is indirectly stronger than Sonic 3, and probably by a decent margin, especially since Sonic has plummeted the last couple of years. Maybe Sonic is up there with Dante with heroes who are just much more popular than their games. I love Sonic 3 and the old Genesis games, so I don’t understand why that is. I figured they’d be more popular than they are (I even had Sonic 2 > Mario World back in the day, darn it!). I still expect Sonic 3 to advance, but I just don’t know if I believe the LFF split will be bad enough for it to get first place. Man, I hate predicting how LFF will or won’t fall. What a pain.

Super Mario Kart: Ah, the second best in the series, but still a blast to play even today. I think Mario Kart 64 beats it in every major category (except for the rubber band AI, which isn’t really that big of a deal). Anyway, that’s not what this is about! I’ve been burned on a Mario Kart upset pick before, but not this time! This is another one of those games that I don’t understand why it’s not more popular! Nearly every friend I have in real life who plays games played and loved the first two Mario Kart games, and even some friends who aren’t gamers like them! Argh, anecdotal evidence never works out as well as you think! To be honest, I wouldn’t be surprised if it managed to beat Sonic 3 at this point, but that’s more of a negative against Sonic than anything else. I’ve just come to think that the LFF split between Mario Kart and Super Metroid won’t be that bad. Just because they’re both on the SNES and they’re major Nintendo franchises doesn’t mean the LFF will be bad (Metroid Prime/Wind Waker was what made me rethink my pick for this match, actually). Regardless, it’s at a disadvantage that I don’t think it’ll be able to overcome.

Super Metroid: darn you tranny for making me consider taking super metroid past the second round. Seriously though, the old Metroid poll suggests that Super Metroid is stronger than Metroid Prime, but I don’t know how credible it is. For what it’s worth, the hierarchies established in these “Favorite game in the series” polls seem to hold up better than the ones in “Favorite character in the series” polls, but I’m just basing this off of a couple of them, really. It could still be wrong. Regardless, at worst, I think Super Metroid would be slightly weaker than Prime, which scored 45% on Wind Waker. Do I think Sonic 3 could ever get that? Not a chance. Even with the LFF, which as I’ve already said I believe will be minor, I think Super Metroid wins.

Leonhart’s Vote: Tough choice between Sonic 3 and Mario Kart, but I’ll side with the hedgehog here.

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Gunstar Heroes – 7.07%
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 – 29.29%
Super Mario Kart – 28.28%
Super Metroid – 35.35%

Ed Bellis’s Analysis

Welcome to the 1992-1994 Division. Given this site’s preference for newer games, it stands to reason that the games should, by and large, be getting stronger as we go, obvious exceptions notwithstanding.

Gunstar Heroes. …whoops. Never mind! Gunstar Heroes – assuming you’ve even heard of it – lost horrifically to A Link to the Past in 2004, and it somehow got in again. Add its pathetic strength to the fact that Sonic 3 will likely be GenesiSFFing to hell, and it’s got last place all but wrapped up.

Sonic the Hedgehog 3. It’s tough to say what the strongest Sonic game will be, but I honestly think Sonic 3 & Knuckles wouldn’t do that much better – people know the game, the franchise, and the character just fine. Assuming Sonic 3 bombs, I still expect tons of board topics yelling about how the combined games would do much better. >_> Sonic 1 put up impressive numbers in its first match, and I can only assume Sonic 3 will be much stronger.

Super Mario Kart. The most influential video game of all time, according to some magazine no one cares about. The original Mario Kart will face particularly strange competition from Super Metroid, another Nintendo-created SNES game. If this were a main franchise Mario game I’d give the edge to it no problem, but it’s not, which poses a dilemma of who exactly will place.

Super Metroid. Metroid’s always been on the ass-end of Nintendo SFF, but with the original Metroid beating out Contra even with Zelda 1 in the poll, it stands to reason that Super Metroid – probably the strongest game in its series – can stand up to Super Mario Kart. Of course, this doesn’t take into account Sonic 3’s presence…

So what do we do here? This is one of the toughest Round 1 matches to call. I’m going to put Sonic 3 in first solely because Sonic 1 kicked all sorts of ass and Sonic 3 doesn’t have to deal with that much fanbase overlap like the other two games have (Gunstar Herpes or whatever won’t be affecting it all that much). That leaves the other two games, and I’m gonna take the “safe bet” and go with Super Metroid to get second. I’m reminded of how Mario Kart lost to Mega Man in the series contest – it’s easy to get caught in the trap and assume all Mario games are strong. My bracket may have Sonic 3 > SMK, but my predictions lie with the mighty Metroid.

Prediction: The galaxy is at peace OH CHRIST RED SHELL
Gunstar Heroes with 5.68%
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 with 43.92%
Super Mario Kart with 21.85%
Super Metroid with 28.55%

Guest’s Analysis - Luis_Sera89

Today kicks off the 92-94 division, and almost certainly the first match of the contest where the occupiers of both 1st and 2nd can and have been viewed as up for grabs.

Starting off with the simplest aspect of the match however, Gunstar Heroes is very likely finishing last. Unluckily for it, it finds itself not only in a match with Super Metroid, a similar kind of game, which probably drains a good deal of its support in any normal case, disastrous for a game as niche as it is; but also potentially faces some kind of wacky Sega SFF, if you were to argue such a thing. Even worse news is that it’s Sonic, and fan favourite Sonic 3 at that. GH is probably looking at single digit figures.

The top 3 is where it’s at though, and any combination (perhaps other than SMK taking first) seems possible. In indirect strength, the hierarchy is generally deemed to be SM > S3 > SMK, but the potential for SFF is again rearing its ugly head. Sonic has already once showed that although the cast may be faltering in the format, the games are running on pure nostalgia power, the original comfortably despatching SFII in a match in which it entered the underdog. Unlike Sonic 1 though, Sonic 3 finds itself as 2nd favourite behind a whole different breed of game here; Super Metroid, regarded in certain circles as not only the best platformer/shooter of its kind, but indeed the finest example of any 2D game. The big questions are just how much Nintendo juice does SMK sap from Metroid, and whether the arguably bigger franchise name of Sonic takes advantage regardless.

I’m going with the opinion that SM’s strength probably holds steady, and that as good as Sonic looked the other day, it was against fodder, fodder and a genre that GameFAQs isn’t crazy about. SMK won’t help, and it’ll bring Sonic closer to Metroid, but it won’t be critical. SMK awakens the nostalgia in all kinds of people, but so do the other two.

Order decided, the percentages are quite tricky. GH is low, SMK likely somewhere in the high teens, but where does this leave the other two?

Gunstar Heroes – 8.5%
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 – 34%
Super Mario Kart – 18%
Super Metroid - 39.5%

Crew Consensus: SM > Sonic 3 is the majority, though Ed has Sonic 3 > SM

Lopen | Posted 4/14/2009 7:30:31 PM | message detail | filter | #406

Wow. I'm the only one who didn't even consider SFF a factor when analyzing this match (although most of you said it wouldn't have any effect... that's basically the same thing I guess)
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.

KamikazePotato | Posted 4/14/2009 7:40:10 PM | message detail | filter | #407

You're all dumb-dumbs

SM>SMK is a lock

Why did I take SM>SMK WHY

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

trannyscience | Posted 4/14/2009 7:40:42 PM | message detail | filter | #408

there's a surprising amount of consensus here. granted no one really feels confident.. well except for Lopen, but he's always confident no matter what it is.
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xyzzy
http://i42.tinypic.com/2vbwhn4.jpg

Lopen | Posted 4/14/2009 7:42:37 PM | message detail | filter | #409

Pfft. No I'm not! I've shown little confidence in roughly one third (1/3) of my picks this year!
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.

Luis_Sera89 | Posted 4/14/2009 7:45:34 PM | message detail | filter | #410

And there I was, struggling over where to peg them all, thinking my percentages would be miles different from the rest of the crew...
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"Eet's game time..."

Lopen | Posted 4/14/2009 7:46:20 PM | message detail | filter | #411

Just for the record: Little confidence-- Tecmo Super Bowl, Oregon Trail. Two outta eight!

But I dunno... this match never really had me guessing in the bracket. Super Metroid is just more popular and I always assumed that Sonic and Nintendo would be joined at the hip and so it'd get killed just as bad as anyone here. Plus, as I said, Sonic 3 should be the least popular Sonic game so that can't help.

Oh and Mario Kart just screams to me "Series Contest." Don't bet on Mario Kart ever.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.

Mac Arrowny | Posted 4/14/2009 7:48:43 PM | message detail | filter | #412

Hey, MKDS did manage to beat God of War. It's not like it doesn't have any good showings.
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All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.

Lopen | Posted 4/14/2009 7:50:26 PM | message detail | filter | #413

Mario Kart has plenty of good showings. Don't bet on it, though.

It's like the backwards version of "it's freaking Mario!"
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.

KamikazePotato | Posted 4/14/2009 7:52:26 PM | message detail | filter | #414

MKDS beating GoW is more due to GoW sucking in every poll its ever been in.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

ZFS | Posted 4/14/2009 7:55:19 PM | message detail | filter | #415

I don't know that MKDS beating God of War is a good showing...

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http://i41.tinypic.com/zk6ct3.gif

Kaxon | Posted 4/14/2009 10:20:13 PM | message detail | filter | #416

Man, why isn’t this Sonic 3 & Knuckles?

I've been reading comments like this for five years and I finally have to ask... is that actually a game? I thought that was just a term for what you get when you connected Sonic 3 to Sonic and Knuckles using Lock-on Technology [TM]. Has Sega ever actually sold a game with that name?
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I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience

Ngamer64 | Posted 4/14/2009 10:59:18 PM | message detail | filter | #417

Pick now, writeup on the way:

Super Metroid - 34.09%
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 - 31.76%
Super Mario Kart - 26.95%
Gunstar Heroes - 7.20%

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The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either)

KamikazePotato | Posted 4/14/2009 11:06:49 PM | message detail | filter | #418

udgsd

I can't even take any props this time, as I had no faith in SM>SMK.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

trannyscience | Posted 4/14/2009 11:07:49 PM | message detail | filter | #419

funny match. I feel like Sonic 3 > Super Metroid picks might get more points than Super Metroid > Sonic 3 ones. darn you Mario Kart

this makes me wonder how the hell Mega Man beat it in the series contest.
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xyzzy
http://i42.tinypic.com/2vbwhn4.jpg

Ngamer64 | Posted 4/14/2009 11:12:41 PM | message detail | filter | #420

Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup

Alright, so FF4 ended up doing a touch better than I called for, finishing a little bit over 50. HOWEVER, check out these vote totals:

FF1 - 49958
FF4 - 55555 (with 3 updates left to go)

Now obviously people weren't as excited to vote in a match without Mario/massive Battletoad rallying and that could have limited FF4's potential somewhat, but still, I'm loving how many voters were attracted like flies to the "Final Fantasy" name. All signs appear to be pointing to a very close SFF-fest between that series come R2, and so I'm still holding out hope for my Mega Man upset. Whooo!

As for tonight... it seems like just yesterday we were excited because we were finally going be be seeing a match between two games of at least respectable strength- but now we're got three! I agree with my Crewmates in predicting that this will be the best battle of the Contest so far (then again I'm not sure that's saying all that much), and I'm also going to agree with them in estimating that the final order will be Metroid > Sonic > Kart > GH. The difference is, I think it will be even more hotly contested than most are thinking!

Why's that? Well firstly because Sonic really, really impressed me against SFII a couple days back. Now I know everyone wants to point to the SMW result and say "look what happens when Nintendo shows up!", but that's the same kind of '04 logic that had Metroid dead to rights with Zelda involved, and look how that turned out. Even with Samus and Mario featured prominently in the pic, I still wouldn't be at all surprised if Sonic pulled out first place in this one, and except him to run pretty close to Samus all day long in any case. As for Metroid, I have immense faith in this series, and in this title particularly. Even with it having to share the SNES with Kart, I think the genres and fanbases are different enough to allow both to perform closer to their potential than you would imagine in an SFF match. All three should remain pretty close, but I don't see SM ever being in serious danger of not pulling out the win here.

As for Kart... I've got to admit, it's hard to get over the mental block imposed by that yoblazer-destroying loss to Mega Man. The series still has huge name appeal and a great casual presence, but I don't think its all that well suited to a 4-way format like this where you needed a large and dedicated fanbase in order to survive close matches. Or at least, it COULD be well suited if there was some way for it to avoid Nintendo's heavy hitters for a while, but with a bracket this N-packed that was never going to be a real possibility. And as for Gunstar, uhhh... thanks for playing! It's got some strong supporters that should keep it well out of that PoP/Crystalis realm, and I might even consider it to hit the double digits as a sneaky upset pick, but with the Genesis-dominating Sonic involved? Sorry, 7% is about the most that can reasonably be expected.

With all that in mind, here are my predictions:

Super Metroid - 34.09%
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 - 31.76%
Super Mario Kart - 26.95%
Gunstar Heroes - 7.20%

Kind of weird how we finally hit a legitimately debatable match and all of a sudden everyone pulls back into their comfortable shell and avoids going for any kind of upset. Except for our savior Ed Bellis!

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The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either)

LinkLegend27 | Posted 4/14/2009 11:15:53 PM | message detail | filter | #421

You're all dumb-dumbs

SM>SMK is a lock

Why did I take SM>SMK WHY

Huh?

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Fortes in Unitate.
I ain't conceited only positive and way better

Applekidjosh | Posted 4/14/2009 11:52:44 PM | message detail | filter | #422

well this should be fun

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http://img184.imageshack.us/img184/7595/lovevk5.gif
Tranquil as a forest, but on fire within. Once you find your center you are sure to win!

Lopen | Posted 4/14/2009 11:54:59 PM | message detail | filter | #423

My face would be red if I weren't already numb to humiliation at this point. Give me the next match INVINCIBLE.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.

tim333 | Posted 4/15/2009 12:03:50 AM | message detail | filter | #424

Dammit Sonic why

WHY DO YOU KEEP HURTING ME SO MUCH?
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Like an imploding star, like a burning car, my style shines so bright!

Ngamer64 | Posted 4/15/2009 12:43:54 AM | message detail | filter | #425

Haha, too awesome! When I first checked results after making my post I was going to say something along the lines of "don't get TOO cocky, Kart-fans... these are exactly the kind of older late night voters that would still think SMK was the pinnacle of the series; Sonic could still rock Europe and pull a great morning vote to get back into this one". But then Sonic absolutely fell on his face in that next update, and this one was OVA. Except for maybe SMK being the one to take the day vote? Actually I think it did quite well in Europe, so it might have that advantage on SM as well. I guess it wouldn't be impossible, but I still like Metroid's chances.

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The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either)

Crystalis............................4% 4413
Final Fantasy II (IV)....50.65% 55883
Mega Man 3...............35.29% 38944
River City Ransom......10.06% 11102
TOTAL VOTES.......................110342

Matches Completely Correct - 4
Matches Partially Correct - 4
Matches Completely Wrong - 0

What Happened - FF4 is able to pull 50% on this group, easily taking first. MM3 does decently in second.

Why it Happened - This is a surprise to no one after watching FF1 and MM2 perform. FF got its franchise votes and MM sucked up some other votes and the other two games just sucked.

What Will Happen - SMW/FF1/FF4/MM3, yep, the fourpack that has been discussed to death. Still up in the air, though I'd say the chances for second go FF4 > FF1 > MM3.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay points for all

Guest - 6
HM - 5
Moltar - 5
Tran - 4
Leon - 3
Lopen - 3
Ed - 3

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Perfect pick for Moltar on Crystalis, Moltar gets the point for FF4, Tran gets the point for MM3, and HM and Lopen get points for RCR

Lopen - 7
Tran - 7
HM - 6
Moltar - 6
Guest (Luster, Zylo (3), HaRR) - 5
Leon - 2
Ed - 2
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Moltar Status: you can't hide forever
Match 9 - Bracket: SM > Sonic 3 - Vote: Sonic 3 (26/32)

Ngamer64 | Posted 4/15/2009 2:37:39 AM | message detail | filter | #427

Hey tranny, I made an update to the Guru interface that you had asked to see a while back.

I felt like doing some updating tonight, so I made three improvements to the Guru site.

http://thengamer.com/guru/

1. Added an "All Brackets" page at Rock's request. I'd rather not post the link directly (because displaying all 216 people is tough on the server if lots of users request it), but I mailed it to Rock and I believe he's already starting to use it to set up his elimination scripts for this season.

2. Added direct links to the Guru Cookie and the Actual Results brackets- those can now be found at the bottom of the rankings.

3. And my personal favorite... a new dropdown and "Update Table" that you can click. See, the default is for the page to display match #9 as "Today's Pick" inside the table, because that's the one current going on. But say you wanted to see what tomorrow's table would look like, to check which people in your part of the bracket picked either Doom or DKC. Now you can use the dropdown to turn that 9 into a 10, and BAM, there you have it! If you wanted you could also go all the way back to match 1 to see who picked Tetris versus DK, or all the way ahead to the Final to check if the current top contenders all went with FF7 > OoT. Or, anything in between.

Pretty sweet IMO! Oh yeah and I guess

4. I expanded the table size a little because it wasn't big enough to display "A Link to the Past > Donkey Kong Country" all on one line.

(number 3)

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The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either)

transience | Posted 4/15/2009 4:53:04 AM | message detail | filter | #428

good stuff, N.

man, stats's logic on Mario Kart/Mega Man was absolutely right - Mario Kart games were more popular than any Mega Man game. I'm still trying to figure out how MK dropped that one. just when I got over it and said "okay, Mario Kart just isn't that popular here", this happens. we took that one straight on the chin and it turns out we were right.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/15/2009 6:54:44 AM | message detail | filter | #429

I’ve been burned on a Mario Kart upset pick before, but not this time! This is another one of those games that I don’t understand why it’s not more popular! Nearly every friend I have in real life who plays games played and loved the first two Mario Kart games, and even some friends who aren’t gamers like them! Argh, anecdotal evidence never works out as well as you think!

darn you anecdotal evidence
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Applekidjosh | Posted 4/15/2009 11:24:37 AM | message detail | filter | #430

wow what an update to wake up to, it's within 20 votes! Go Mario Kart! Crush the brackets!

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Tranquil as a forest, but on fire within. Once you find your center you are sure to win!

KamikazePotato | Posted 4/15/2009 11:26:31 AM | message detail | filter | #431

man, stats's logic on Mario Kart/Mega Man was absolutely right - Mario Kart games were more popular than any Mega Man game. I'm still trying to figure out how MK dropped that one. just when I got over it and said "okay, Mario Kart just isn't that popular here", this happens. we took that one straight on the chin and it turns out we were right.

Individual Mario Kart games=strong.
Mario Kart the series=not as strong.

Individual Mega Man games=not as strong.
Mega Man the series=strong.

It's not that hard to understand.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

LeonhartFour | Posted 4/15/2009 12:39:53 PM | message detail | filter | #432

Except for the fact that it makes absolutely NO sense at all!

But as I said in the stats topic, I totally blame Double Dash for that 2006 loss.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/15/2009 12:42:36 PM | message detail | filter | #433

Why doesn't it make sense? The only popular MK games are SMK, MK64, and sort of MKDS. Mega Man has had...how many games in its series?

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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/15/2009 12:43:47 PM | message detail | filter | #434

SSB has had three games and it would smash Mega Man, both as a series and individually. The number of entries doesn't mean squat.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/15/2009 12:46:43 PM | message detail | filter | #435

Yeah, but SSB is also far more popular than MK, at least one this site.

I don't know, it just seems pretty clear-cut to me.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/15/2009 12:51:30 PM | message detail | filter | #436

The massive number of entries shouldn't suddenly make Mega Man strong as a series.
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transience | Posted 4/15/2009 12:55:35 PM | message detail | filter | #437

yeah, Mega Man won that match because it's seen as iconic. take away the fact that it's revered and Mario Kart wins.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 4/15/2009 2:05:23 PM | message detail | filter | #438

I think tranny's got it- the bigger Karts have better playrates and are in general more popular than any MM entry, and the only reason MM pulled out that win was because BSE voters came into the Contest with a unique mindset. A "respect" mindset I guess you could call it. It's the same way that no Castlevania entry could hope to hang with anything Halo or anything Kingdom Hearts, but people have so much respect for the series that it could go toe to toe with either of them. Really the only time that Contest we saw something old and respected fall on its face against something newer/more popular was Sonic vs Smash Bros, but with the way Sonic's been folding to absolutely anything Nintendo pretty much since '05, that really wasn't too surprising in retrospect.

In light of this new evidence, if Zelda defeats MMX while Kart goes on to win today, I think we should petition SB to get yoblazer33 restored! And let's ban Chris' current account for good measure!

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The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either)

Applekidjosh | Posted 4/15/2009 3:30:33 PM | message detail | filter | #439

From: Ngamer64 | #438
I think we should petition SB to get yoblazer33 restored! And let's ban Chris' current account for good measure!

I like the way you think

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Tranquil as a forest, but on fire within. Once you find your center you are sure to win!

Ngamer64 | Posted 4/15/2009 7:15:05 PM | message detail | filter | #440

Well, he should get it back if either SMK pulls this out today, OR SMK survives past Metroid and Doom next round.

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The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either)

Division 3: Round 1 - Match 10 – Donkey Kong Country vs. Doom vs. Streets of Rage 2 vs. The Legend of Zelda: Link to the Past

Moltar’s Analysis

Donkey Kong Country
2004 Results: N/A

Man I remember playing DKC non-stop at this day-care I used to go to.

Doom
2004 Results: Won in Round 1 against Earthbound
Lost in Round 2 against Final Fantasy VI

DOOM

Streets of Rage 2
2004 Results: N/A

Keep me away from any raging streets

Link to the Past
2004 Results: Won in Round 1 against Gunstar Heroes
Won in Round 2 against Super Metroid
Won in Round 3 against Final Fantasy VI
Lost in Round 4 against Chrono Trigger

LttP is hoping to go farther than Round 4 this time.

*We now interrupt this regularly scheduled analysis with something a little more…crazy.*

Previously, the Hidden Mushroom Village was attacked by Squad 1 of the Midgar Soldiers. Before a battle truly broke out, Squad 1 retreated, leaving the characters of the Hidden Mushroom Village to figure out why they were attacked.

A world united,
Becomes divided,
War starts without fail
Now witness the tale
Intermission…

2: Great Sea

*We open with Link and his crew sailing on the Great Sea*

Link: Ahh adventure, the wind and smell of the sea, I love sailing!

King of the Red Lions: We won’t be reaching the dungeon for a while, you should rest, Link.

Tingle: Yeahhhh Link, you should come rest with meeeee!

Link: No thanks.

Goron: Is it just me or did this mother ****ing boat just talk?

Zora: Goron, we know you’re new here, but will you please refrain from asking unnecessary questions.

Deku: Hey Link, how about you spar with me!

Link: Sure, Deku.

Zelda: Don’t go overboard you two. We don’t know what’s waiting for us at that dungeon!

Link: *thinking* I couldn’t be any more satisfied. I’m on an adventure with all my friends, moving closer to reaching my dream of being the best!

King of the Red Lions: Guys, there’s another ship approaching us.

Link: Another ship?

Zelda: *pulls out a telescope* It looks like…a Midgar ship.

Link: A Midgar ship? I wonder what they want with us…

*As the ship approaches the King of the Red Lions, a person on the Midgar ship looks out*

???: Alright, we’re within range. Fire!

~*To Be Continued*~

Well, this match doesn’t seem tricky at all. Link to the Past obviously takes first, as it’s about 5 leagues higher than any of these other games.

I like Doom to take second here. Streets of Rage is a respected beat-em-up series, and it should get..something. DKC has an outside shot at second, but LttP being here does it no favors. Then you have Doom, a popular FPS that stands out here. We’ve already seen it in 2004, and while it wasn’t a bastion of strength, it did decently enough to make me think it’ll hold up to some extent here.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: LttP > Doom

Moltar’s Prediction is: Link to the Past: 56% - Doom: 22% - DKC: 13% - Streets of Rage 2: 9%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Unlike yesterday's craziness, today should be pretty tame. There's only two real options to take to advance here, and the order is even easier to determine. You've got Zelda dominating the match, and the Doom taking second. You could try to make an argument for DKC based on Zelda dominance, but DKC isn't any bigger of a name than Doom, and there's going to be major SFF there. This isn't Metroid/Contra.

The biggest thing this match will tell us is how Doom holds up. If it gets demolished hard, there's a good argument for Super Metroid advancing to round 3. If it does decently, and isn't at all close to DKC, it's probably a near lock to move on next round, too. We'll see how it goes.

Link to the Past -- 58%
Doom -- 20%
Donkey Kong Country -- 14%
Streets of Rage II -- 8%

Bracket: Link to the Past > Doom
Favorites: Link to the Past > Doom

Lopen’s Analysis

Streets of RAGE II is a game I've always wanted to play, but never got around to, and it'll get moshed here. LttP is a game that I've played a few times, and is the only Zelda game I really like, and it'll dominate here. Now that we've got those two out of the way... they were disrupting my senses.

DKC vs Doom, who you got? Had we had this match last year, I think DKC would be the overwhelming favorite for second place. You know, before Diddy Kong laid down the steaming pile of monkey crap he did in R1. Now, me, being someone who was calling for that steaming pile long before it happened... well, yeah, I'm not picking DKC here. I simply don't think the series is that popular on GameFAQs. Donkey Kong is a respectable competitor in the character contests, but I really think that he's mostly driven by the Mario spinoff crap.

Not to mention I respect Doom's strength to some degree. It didn't look that good in 2004... but the game is pretty iconic. It's like the Street Fighter 2 of the FPS genre... okay, that might be a bit generous, but you know what I mean. Oh, and the fact that LttP is here can't hurt either. That's bound to SFF the pants off of the less loved DKC.

Lopen's Prediction:
Link to the Past – 45.12%
DOOM – 26.66%
Donkey Kong Country – 19.12%
Streets of RAGE – 9.10%

Transience’s Analysis

...is anybody even going to read these today?

Today's SM/SMK match is silly. Most tight matches have trends and vote swings; this is just completely random. It looks frighteningly like the Kefka/Vercetti match with all the crazy vote spikes. Does it have vote stuffing? Who knows. Probably not. Both sides are all over the place. I'd love to see a graph of the updates but creative's site is broken at the moment. It's just a weird, weird match. Since I know you all love predictions, I'll take Super Metroid to squeak out a win.

As for tomorrow's match.. I just don't know. I have Doom in my bracket; DKC has never shown any real strength, Diddy Kong bombed last year and LTTP should completely neuter it. One thing I've noticed this year, though, is that "SFF" doesn't seem to be all that brutal - Metroid survived Zelda 1 without too much trouble and Super Metroid/SMK are two Nintendo games that are in no danger of losing to Sonic. I'm not sure if LTTP completely crushes DKC like you'd think.

I'm still taking Doom though. Doom is just completely independent here and will be the same next round as well. One thing that stays with me is that Doom did so well on The List -- it was like #32 or something, tied with Tetris and above most second-tier titles from big series' like Wind Waker or GTA: Vice City. That tells me that it's got at least some kind of fanbase behind it, and the site's new love for the 360 / shooters tells me that Doom should do pretty good. It could bomb pretty hard, but I'm not trusting DKC for one second.

transience's prediction:

Link to the Past - 58%
Donkey Kong Country - 15%
Doom - 20%
Streets of Rage 2 (I seriously had no idea this was in the bracket) - 7%

Leon’s Analysis

Donkey Kong Country: This game was unlike any other when it came out. This is the first game I remember ever really getting hyped about before it came out, due to that video that Nintendo Power sent out to promote it. I wish I still had that thing. Well, in any event, DKC doesn’t have any chance here, thanks to being in the same fourpack as Link to the Past. The original LoZ clobbered Donkey Kong in the first Games Contest, and DKC got SFF’d hard by Super Mario Bros. in that Favorite 2-D Platformer poll. I’d say it has a chance otherwise, but as it stands, no.

Doom: Doom is one of those classics that a lot of people still remember to this day. It beat Earthbound fairly easily in one of the most debated round one matches of the first Games Contest and barely outperformed the original Mortal Kombat against FFVI. I don’t know if 27% against FFVI is really all that bad, but still, I don’t think I’d take it to get second if it weren’t for the Nintendo SFF here. It should honestly take second place without much trouble.

Streets of Rage II: Man, I loved Streets of Rage back in the day. Good old-fashioned beat-em-ups were fun to play with a friend, and this game was no exception. Probably beat this one a handful of times. Reminiscing aside, yeah, Streets of Rage hasn’t got a shot here. I can’t really see any way it’s more popular than Doom. Heck, it might even struggle to beat a SFF’d DKC here, depending on how bad the SFF is.

The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past: Yeah, this match is one of the more straightforward matches of the contest. Link to the Past blows everyone out of the water, and Doom coasts into second place while DKC and Streets of Rage II fight for scraps. There’s really nothing to analyze about this match.

Leonhart’s Vote: Gotta side with DKC here. That game is a blast.

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Donkey Kong Country – 13.21%
Doom – 21.90%
Streets of Rage II – 11.44%
The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past – 53.45%

Ed Bellis’s Analysis

Well, today was a total disaster for both my bracket and my prediction. Here’s hoping I fare better with this match!

WHERE DO YOU THINK YOU ARE THIS IS DONKEY KONG COUNTRY. How the original game got in initially and not its revered sequel, I’ll never know, but DKC’s chances of advancing begin and end with the little fellow SNES juggernaut called A Link to the Past. The game would have a shot were it not for Zelda standing in the way.

Doom. In 2004, Doom beat Earthbound in an “upset” I… actually called, and I have high hopes for it this year. My prediction is that it’s the Duke Nukem of games, somehow squeezing by thanks to name recognition and, in round two, SFF.

Streets of Rage II. This game is coarse food (especially for livestock) composed of entire plants or the leaves and stalks of a cereal crop. That’s right – it’s fodder!

Zelda: A Link to the Past. The second strongest Zelda title enters the arena, hungry for blood. In 2004 it had a epic match with Chrono Trigger that decided which game would job to FF7 (or rather, which game would first beat out Mario 3). Its competition is pretty weak – a Super Nintendo game (lol), an old-school FPS, and uhhh streets of rage what

Zelda’s obviously a lock for first. I’m banking on SNESSFF (ugh) to pull Doom through. Pretty straightforward.

Prediction: It’s not fair that the original Donkey Kong will be the only one of its series to win a match.

Donkey Kong Country with 16.22%
Doom with 18.05%
Streets of Rage II with 9.16%
Zelda: A Link to the Past with 56.57%

Guest’s Analysis - The Real Truth

Alright I'll keep this fairly short.

ALttP takes first without any challenge. That much is obvious.

So who takes second out of the other 3?

I'm pretty sure that DKC wasn't in the last contest. Donkey Kong as a character doesn't do well in these things. Diddy Kong managed to make the last character battle and he got either third or fourth and lost to Captain Falcon. Like, it wasn't even close. So characters don't equal games in strength, but that's what we have to go with.

DKC is considered good by most people, however, most people will also say that ALttP is better.

The real question is, how strong is Streets of Rage 2. The Genesis in general, doesn't have any strong games outside of Sonic, and even those don't do very well. Doom is on the SNES, but it's also on like 10 other consoles and pretty much everyone has played it.

Lets see here....ALttP - 64%, Doom - 15%, DKC - 11% Streets of Rage 2 - 10%,

That looks about right

I wouldn't be surprised if DKC ends up lower than SoR

Crew Consensus: LttP > Doom sweep

trannyscience | Posted 4/15/2009 8:39:09 PM | message detail | filter | #445

I was hoping someone would go with DKC here. I like its chances more than my brethren.
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The Real Truth | Posted 4/15/2009 8:40:30 PM | message detail | filter | #446

I probably put SoR too high. I really don't know anything about the game. I do expect ALttP to break 60% though.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/15/2009 8:43:16 PM | message detail | filter | #447

I would take Doom>DKC without LTTP breathing down their necks. With...yeah.

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trannyscience | Posted 4/15/2009 8:43:18 PM | message detail | filter | #448

LTTP should go pretty big here... I feel like Metroid might beat DKC and maybe Doom as well, and Zelda 1 got 61%.
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Lopen | Posted 4/15/2009 9:38:00 PM | message detail | filter | #449

Wow, huge LttP percentages. Can't say I agree with them. Those huge percentages are a thing of the past now that we've got games people actually like playing with the big boys.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.

ZFS | Posted 4/15/2009 9:41:39 PM | message detail | filter | #450

I don't know that Doom, DKC, and Streets of Rage fit that bill!

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