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Best Game Ever 2 Contest Analysis Crew

Master Moltar (36) | Board List | Topic List | Topic Closed | Track Topic

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charmander6000 | Posted 4/8/2009 2:16:39 PM | message detail | filter | #101

Ngamer you should post your analysis in the stats topic.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MM2 > Pac-Man Points: 2/4

croy3 | Posted 4/8/2009 2:25:53 PM | message detail | filter | #102

only the guest analyzer got 1st round right lol
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Vincent Valentine's #3 Fanboy, Knuckles' #1 Homeboy
Croys Character Battle......VOTE

croy3 | Posted 4/8/2009 2:26:14 PM | message detail | filter | #103

1st match rather
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Vincent Valentine's #3 Fanboy, Knuckles' #1 Homeboy
Croys Character Battle......VOTE

RPGGamer0 | Posted 4/8/2009 6:42:28 PM | message detail | filter | #104

Gogo Ngamer.

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|PM|
After 2: 8/8

trannyscience | Posted 4/8/2009 6:45:06 PM | message detail | filter | #105

Ngamer inserting himself and talking himself up while putting others down?

deja vu !!
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xyzzy
http://i42.tinypic.com/2vbwhn4.jpg

DpObliVion | Posted 4/8/2009 6:48:12 PM | message detail | filter | #106

Ouch, sure would hate to have predicted MM2 for over 50% now. Boy, would my face be red!

*high-five Ng again*

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Martin Brodeur: 555 career wins -- Patrick Roy: 551 career wins
Best Game Ever 2009 - See profile for printable brackets

Division 1: Round 1 - Match 3 – Duck Hunt vs. Galaga vs. Ninja Gaiden vs. Super Mario Bros.

Moltar’s Analysis

Duck Hunt
2004 Results: Lost in Round 1 against Donkey Kong

hey say ‘duck hunt’ really fast

Galaga
2004 Results: Lost in Round 1 against Tetris

GalAUGHga

Ninja Gaiden
2004 Results: N/A

Yes, the game existed before the Xbox version.

Super Mario Bros.
2004 Results: N/A

The game that launched a million (and more) systems

Galaga can get outta here. SMB will rock this fourpack hard, really hard. I mean you thought Tetris beating down weak games was bad. SMB, an even stronger game, is up against games that are even weaker.

The only question in this match is will SMB SFF Duck Hunt enough to allow Ninja Gaiden to take second. This is interesting because SMB and Duck Hunt share a special SFF called Same Cartridge Factor. So, logically, nearly everyone who has played Duck Hunt has played SMB. I mean clearly this is flawless logic.

Still, Ninja Gaiden is going to be damn weak. Only hope it has to do decently is that it gets votes for the current Ninja Gaiden games. I think that even with the SFF that will hit Duck Hunt, it will still be able to take second here. Duck Hunt is just about everywhere in some form, so it’s definitely bigger than just the SMB-cartridge side game some people are making it out to be.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: SMB > Duck Hunt

Moltar’s Prediction is: SMB: 59% - Duck Hunt: 18% - Ninja Gaiden: 14% - Galaga: 9%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

How about that Mega Man bomb yesterday? Whoops!

Today's match should be a bit easier to predict. As usual, SMB1 is going to be the game to destroy everything today, which means it's yet again a fight for second place. I expect that this'll be a recurring theme with this division, at least when you have one or two elite games (aka, Mario and Zelda) against a bunch of fodder. Then again, I was way off with MM2, so who knows.

After the past couple of days, Duck Hunt would probably be the safest way to go -- it's the most well-known game here, outside of SMB. But the fact it's sharing a poll with Mario makes me think there's going to be a brutal SFF beatdown. I expected this to happen with DK, with Tetris taking all of the casual/I don't care votes, but in this case, SMB1/DH are much more closely related, as in same game pack-in related.

Now, Ninja Gaiden is no powerhouse by any means. Any poll with Ninja Gaiden in it tends to be absymal at best, but I think it can eek out the meager percentage it would need to advance. It wouldn't surprise me if it couldn't, considering that needing a small percentage also means that Duck Hunt doesn't need much either.

I'm not too sure, if you couldn't tell! This all depends on how much SMB1 wrecks this poll, and if it affects Duck Hunt significantly. If it does, Ninja Gaiden should move on. If it doesn't, Duck Hunt probably takes it. I'll side with the ninja for standing out and being the better game!

(damn you old games)

Super Mario Bros. -- 70%
Ninja Gaiden -- 13%
Duck Hunt -- 10%
Galaga -- 7%

Bracket: Super Mario Bros. > Ninja Gaiden
Favorites: Super Mario Bros. > Ninja Gaiden

Lopen’s Analysis

Just a duck... get out of here!

Man, I'd hate to start another write up with a word I've been using a bit too much lately (especially since said logic failed at least once!) but... uhhh. This match is all about people and their apa-- not caring, while Mario moshes the enemies in the most brutal fashion. Well, sort of. I kinda hope some people like Duck Hunt... I mean come on, it came with the system, massive playrate, so it's bound to draw votes in droves. What other game can say “I was packaged with the NES!” ... ... oh.

Well, then there's Space Invaders, and it's come back for another beating this time saying its name in its native tongue. A Galagian is a Space Invader, and I don't expect it to do any better.

That leaves Ninja Gaiden. Some might say that DK beating Tyson two days ago makes Duck Hunt look better here? Quite the opposite! No one likes Donkey Kong, and so it won by pure name recognition. Ninja Gaiden will do the same here, but will do it in an even bigger way because it's actually a decent game (I'm sorry DK I'm mean).

But really, Ninja Gaiden is the only currently relevant franchise (aside from Mario obviously) in this group, and it has tons of “new school cred.” That makes it all the more likely to get name voted here. Heck, some might even mistake it for the amazing X-Box game! Hell, I wouldn't be too surprised to see Bacon provide us with the X-Box cover art out of laziness! ... okay, maybe not.

Lopen's prediction:
Super Mario Brothers – 70.12% (hail the almighty grandfather)
Ninja Gaiden – 15.12%
Duck Hunt – 10.03%
Galaga – 4.73%

Transience’s Analysis

Holy god, Mega Man 2 bombed. Five years of hype for one huge egg. Metroid put up 68% on Pac-Man in 2004; Mega Man lost updates regularly to Pac-Man throughout the day. It's kind of sad, but at the same time it's really interesting - Mega Man just doesn't have the same kind of pull that modern series' do: Mario, Metroid, Resident Evil, etc. MM2/Tetris looks to be advantage Tetris next round.

Tonight's match is just difficult to gauge. I think you can look at it one of two ways:

1.) SMB and Duck Hunt are not only both Nintendo, they're on the same damn cartridge - this is going to kill Duck Hunt;
2.) Being packed in with SMB is actually a good thing, because it means most everyone has played it, far more than Ninja Gaiden

I actually like option 2 here. Same cartridge or not, Duck Hunt is just nothing like Mario 1. It's got massive nostalgia for a lot of people. It's probably not that strong, but at least it's well-known today; you can only say that about a handful of NES games and Ninja Gaiden is not one of them.

The thing that makes me pause is that Ninja Gaiden is still relevant today. Hell, the game has the same name as the Xbox game that's pretty well-liked and it's got Ryu on the cover. Xbox NG has bombed in polls for years, but at least it actually is notable enough to get into polls; you won't be seeing any Duck Hunt polls anytime soon. Ryu Hayabusa also went and beat Zero last year. He's a pretty popular character. If Ninja Gaiden carries over some votes from the Xbox game, it will probably win. I'm not going to back it but I'm definitely worried about it.

The last game is Galaga. It's by far the most independent game and is probably a lock for that 10% that Space Invaders and Pong have been getting. If it goes much above that, it could win; the same goes for if SMB1 goes and puts up some huge percentage. I don't see this happening but I wouldn't say it's out of the question.

The Dog laughs at you
Ninja Gaiden birds kill you
bring on better games

transience's prediction:

Super Mario Bros. - 51%
Duck Hunt - 19%
Ninja Gaiden - 17%
Galaga - 13%

Leon’s Analysis

Duck Hunt: In the first Games Contest, Duck Hunt was involved in one of the greatest vote swings in contest history against Donkey Kong, though it fell about 150 votes short. This time, the game is put into a difficult position, being placed in the same match as the game it shared a cartridge with on the NES: Super Mario Bros. People say that this will work against Duck Hunt because SMB is much more favored. This may be true, but neither of its two opponents for second place are powerhouses. It may work to its advantage because Duck Hunt’s playability will be much higher. It can definitely take second place here because it doesn’t need a large percentage to advance.

Galaga: Honestly, I’ve never played Galaga, so I don’t know what it’s all about or how popular it really was back in the day. All I know is that it got nearly quadrupled by Tetris, which isn’t a good sign. There’s no doubt that Super Mario Bros. will flatten like a pancake as well. I just can’t see it advancing here.

Ninja Gaiden: I’ve seen several people say Ninja Gaiden will take second place because Duck Hunt’s going to get same cartridge SFF’d and the game will get franchise votes, which may be worth something because Hayabusa is decently popular. I must disagree. Super Mario Bros. is going to affect ANYTHING that appeared on the NES because EVERYONE who owned an NES played it. Ninja Gaiden is no exception. Besides, I think a great deal of Hayabusa’s popularity comes from his design, which may explain why he was so weak in 2004 (when he had the Arabusa design and not his traditional ninja garb) and why Solid Snake can flatten the guy with LFF two years running. Plus, look at any poll involving Ninja Gaiden on this site. They hardly inspire you with confidence in its strength.

Super Mario Bros.: Ah, the video game that saved the industry. There’s absolutely no way Super Mario Bros. doesn’t destroy every game in this poll, and I’ll be shocked if it doesn’t get at least 50% of the vote. This could be the blowout of the contest. Only Mario 3’s really got a shot to outdo it here. This match is basically a warm-up and a test gauge to compare it to the Legend of Zelda for their match later on in the contest.

Leonhart’s Vote: Duck Hunt, in memory of the Light Zapper.

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Duck Hunt – 18.13%
Galaga – 9.35%
Ninja Gaiden – 14.65%
Super Mario Bros. – 57.87%

Ed Bellis’s Analysis

Quite the perplexing little match we have here… OR IS IT.

Duck Hunt. ZAP ZAP ZAP. In 2004 Duck Hunt had a legendary scuffle with Donkey Kong in which the former managed to almost pull off one of the biggest comebacks in contest history. In last year’s character battle, the Duck Hunt Dog showed it had some semblance of strength and wasn’t complete fodder. So why aren’t I taking Duck Hunt for second here? Because, as has been stated previously (by *shudder* Albion, I think) it will suffer the worst kind of SFF imaginable: same-cartridge SFF.

Galaga. Another returning piece of fodder, Galaga lost miserably to Tetris in 2004 and I don’t expect it to do much better here, against games that are presumably equal to or stronger than Tetris. Galaga’s another game that everybody knows, but few care about.

Ninja Gaiden. This ain’t the Xbox version – the original game with punishing difficulty makes its contest debut. The franchise has stayed in popularity thanks to recent games, and as the original Final Fantasy has taught us, franchise voting is definitely a factor in games contests.

Super Mario Bros. Arguably the most famous game in the contest next to Pac-Man and Tetris, what the original SMB has going for it is, unlike these games, it’s probably pretty strong. It remains untested and could very well be weaker than Zelda 1, but given how even today Super Mario Bros. is still played and is still considered relevant by modern standards, that’s unlikely.

So what happens here? SMB1 takes first, that’s a given. Duck Hunt might get second in another match, but here it’s up against the game that came packaged with it. That’s a pretty awful matchup, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it took last place here. Ninja Gaiden should snag second place thanks to SFF and overall popularity.

Prediction: Ryu Hayabusa will overcome his fear of birds.
Duck Hunt with 17.17%
Galaga with 13.14%
Ninja Gaiden with 20.77%
Super Mario Bros. with 48.92%

Guest’s Analysis - SuperAngelo128

Alright this is my first time writing an Analysis thingy for a any Contest. I hope it doesn’t suck too bad.

Anyway we have 4 games that I’m pretty familiar with: Duck Hunt, Ninja Gaiden, Galaga

First of all, Super Mario Bros. is obviously gonna get first. I mean it’s a game that everyone should be familiar with, and it has MARIO in the title. I’d say it wins with 70-75%

Choosing a second place is much trickier. I personally think that they all have a pretty good chance of nailing second.

However I have to give second to Ninja Gaiden. Some people might dismiss the whole “hey this game was also on the 360” thing, but I still think that is enough to get over the other 2. Plus there is a decent fanbase who love the difficulty of the NES version Duck Hunt, which’ll probably get SFFd by Mario, and Galaga which I don’t think is too popular.

Super Mario Bros- 71.07%
Ninja Gaiden- 15.16%
Galaga- 7.51%
Duck Hunt- 6.26%

Crew Consensus: SMB > Ninja Gaiden is barely the majority. Moltar, Tran and Leon think Dunk Hunt takes second.

trannyscience | Posted 4/8/2009 8:19:49 PM | message detail | filter | #111

jesus christ 70%
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xyzzy
http://i42.tinypic.com/2vbwhn4.jpg

shadow8021 | Posted 4/8/2009 8:31:21 PM | message detail | filter | #112

tag
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2008 Hickory Cross Country
Becoming One

XIII_rocks | Posted 4/8/2009 8:32:29 PM | message detail | filter | #113

Tag so I remember my guest write-up.
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Justice for FD
"This topic is now about Renee Walker aka Rack Bauer." - LostHisHardcore http://i39.tinypic.com/jtnpfb.jpg

ZFS | Posted 4/8/2009 8:34:15 PM | message detail | filter | #114

get me out of this division

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MinFarshaw | Posted 4/8/2009 8:35:53 PM | message detail | filter | #115

How about that Mega Man bomb yesterday? Whoops !!

Super Mario Bros. -- 70%

ZFS | Posted 4/8/2009 8:37:46 PM | message detail | filter | #116

If Mario barely does better than Tetris did, I give up!

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http://i44.tinypic.com/sficrr.jpg

DpObliVion | Posted 4/8/2009 8:46:59 PM | message detail | filter | #117

DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

Blowout alert. How high will SMB1 go? Well, pretty damn high, probably. No flopping like Mega Man 2.

I love Galaga, but it doesn't seem to have the popularity to compete. Ninja Gaiden....does anyone even care? And Duck Hunt.

Some people may debate 2nd place in this match, but I think Duck Hunt should have it easily. Galaga is widespread, but not as much as Du-......wait a minute....the Crew is pulling for Ninja Gaiden in 2nd? Umm, what am I missing here?

Ahh, the whole SCF. Yes, it was on the same cartridge as Super Mario Bros....Super Mario Bros. which sold more copies than any other video game besides the one that was packaged with the Wii. Duck Hunt officially comes in at 5th on the list (thanks Sporcle). You can just ignore that, and think Ninja Gaiden would do any better against the powerhouse of Super Mario Bros.? There's no reason to think that, IMO.

Duck Hunt has a great appeal to it, and especially with SMB guaranteed a blowout victory, Duck Hunt will get the few votes in needs to take 2nd.

Dp's bracket says: Super Mario Bros. > Duck Hunt

Dp's prediction is: Super Mario Bros. > Duck Hunt

Confidence Rating: 95%

Super Mario Bros - 58.50%
Duck Hunt - 16.50%
Ninja Gaiden - 14%
Galaga - 11%

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Martin Brodeur: 555 career wins -- Patrick Roy: 551 career wins
Best Game Ever 2009 - See profile for printable brackets

RPGGamer0 | Posted 4/8/2009 10:18:57 PM | message detail | filter | #118

Man, this upcoming match is definitely the most unpredictable match of this division round 1.

Can't wait.

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|PM|
After 2: 8/8

Ngamer64 | Posted 4/8/2009 11:00:14 PM | message detail | filter | #119

Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup

Hey hey, another good result for me! Oregon had a little more punch than I'd expected early, but fell apart as soon as the Americans fell asleep just as I'd thought. And yikes, I was a little too right about MM2 underwhelming... My Tetris > MM2 is looking great as a result, but my MMX > Link's Awakening and MM3 > FF4 (R2) are shaking in their boots right now!

As for tonight, it looks as though the Crew has more or less hit on all the points I wanted to touch. Mario's even more iconic/important/relevant than Tetris and facing competition just about as weak, so should be a lock for a huge showing. Galaga's a chump, but stands out from these NES choices enough that it should be able to outscore Space Invaders; Ninja Gaiden likewise gets to stand out just because probably half its voters are going to think they're supporting the Xbox game, while Duck Hunt is easily the strongest/most well-known/most played of the non-Mario options, but will be suffering from the first ever "same cartridge SFF". And that might be brutal, to say the least.

So since I'm not covering any new ground with the above, let's look at this match pic. Oh cool, NG got just the pic I was hoping for! Ryu looks RIPPED, sporting a blade, a full on Ninjarific appeal that's still generic enough where people could easily mistake him for his Xbox version. But, watch out- Duck Hunt also scored a perfect picture! Here's the exact look that The Dog used to joke-factor his way to 14% of the vote just last season... even with Mario there to try to lay an SFF beatdown, I can't see DH falling below that number in this one. But then there's Mario 1, ALSO getting exactly the pic it would have wanted; look out, we could see a record blowout in this format after all! And Galaga... sorry, text way too blurred, that's not going to get it done.

So taking all of that into account, I see DH giving NG a very good run but coming up a touch short due to Mario steal too many of its early NES-era votes.

Super Mario Bros. - 55.40%
Ninja Gaiden - 16.84%
Duck Hunt - 16.69%
Galaga - 11.07%

Come on, let's not have my luck run out just yet!

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thengamer.com/guru/ says we just got owned hard by FastFalcon!
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com are neat)

Ngamer64 | Posted 4/8/2009 11:37:46 PM | message detail | filter | #120

Hmm, most of stats seems to be backing NG to take a slim lead overnight but then get pounded during the day. I'm not entirely buying that... first of all because I think Gaiden is going to have a chance to build a decent lead before the sun rises, because Europe loves the series. Or at least, they do Ryu... check what he did to Zero in Europe last year:

Ryu Hayabusa 43.63% 7337
Zero 24.63% 4141

And then, look how good Ryu did during the ASV despite having to deal with 2 Brawl characters

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3262&type=2&seconds=900

...actually I guess that was more the DSV where he made the push. But still!

I think this will be closer than people are giving it credit for!

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thengamer.com/guru/ says we just got owned hard by FastFalcon!
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com are neat)

transience | Posted 4/8/2009 11:58:25 PM | message detail | filter | #121

comparing Hayabusa to NES Ninja Gaiden is a huuuuuuuuuuge reach. I think NG is the safe pick here but I dunno about that.

plus, have you seen Mega Man's numbers in Europe? they're just awful.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg

Ngamer64 | Posted 4/8/2009 11:59:54 PM | message detail | filter | #122

Yeah, they're very bad. But still, 44% on Zero and two Brawl characters is nothing to sneeze at!

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thengamer.com/guru/ says we just got owned hard by FastFalcon!
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com are neat)

Mega Man 2..........34.79% 40964
Pac-Man...............27.25% 32090
Pong.....................16.54% 19475
The Oregon Trail.....21.42% 25220
TOTAL VOTES...................117749

Matches Completely Correct - 1
Matches Partially Correct - 1
Matches Completely Wrong - 0

What Happened - uh wow MM2, way to try and one-up Tetris's performance. It still doesn't have much trouble beating this group. Oregon Trail threatened Pac-Man for a while, but fell off overnight. Even Pong managed to do pretty good here.

Why it Happened - Now I know I've been seeing alot of "MM games individually aren't strong", but I want to say wait until Round 2. Still, it looks like MM2 isn't going to be as strong as some people thought. Pac-Man managed to get a good amount of apathy votes, and OT really surprised me here. It had second in North America out-right. Too bad it hasn't been released outside the country, because that's what killed it. Pong also getting 16% speaks around the overall strength of the four-pack.

What Will Happen - Tetris/DK/MM2/Pac-Man uhhhhhhhhh

Crew Prediction Challenge - 5 people getting points here!

Guest - 2
Moltar - 1
HM - 1
Tran - 1
Leon - 1
Lopen - 0
Ed - 0

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Leon gets the point for MM2 and Pac-Man, Ed gets the point for Pong and OT

Leon - 2
Ed - 2
Moltar - 1
HM - 1
Lopen - 1
Tran - 1
Guest (Luster) - 1
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Moltar Status: let's go
DH/Galaga/NH/SMB - Bracket: SMB > DH - Vote: SMB (6/8)

LeonhartFour | Posted 4/9/2009 7:39:20 AM | message detail | filter | #124

Aw yeah, tied for first!

Go go Duck Hunt for another big comeback! Also, Oregon Trail destroyed Pac-Man in the U.S. Heh.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

tim333 | Posted 4/9/2009 8:43:55 AM | message detail | filter | #125

This topic is pretty funny. How did EVERYONE pick punch-out over DK? That one was a huge "duh" for me when making my bracket. DK is a super famous arcade classic and a prominent Nintendo character, Punch-Out is only a moderately popular NES game. I'm surprised it was as close as it was. Just goes to show, never listen to board 8.

But I have duck hunt in this match, so I'm obviously not so great at this either >_>
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Like an imploding star, like a burning car, my style shines so bright!

DpObliVion | Posted 4/9/2009 8:58:13 AM | message detail | filter | #126

This match is dumb.

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Martin Brodeur: 555 career wins -- Patrick Roy: 551 career wins
Best Game Ever 2009 - See profile for printable brackets

Lopen | Posted 4/9/2009 10:04:19 AM | message detail | filter | #127

^5s HM

55% for SMB against these games what's wrong with you people.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.

LeonhartFour | Posted 4/9/2009 10:07:04 AM | message detail | filter | #128

darn writing these analyses early
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Lopen | Posted 4/9/2009 10:10:34 AM | message detail | filter | #129

Oh god I just noticed GUEST has a huge percentage for Mario too.

It's a shame Ninja Gaiden will be gobbling up that ASV...! SMB won't make it to 71% I'm afraid!
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.

Thought process: Hey Tetris is doing pretty well maybe I should raise MM2.

"augh"

Thought process: Hey MM2 is doing kinda bad maybe I should lower SMB

"augh"

I'll get Zelda right though!
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Moltar Status: let's go
DH/Galaga/NH/SMB - Bracket: SMB > DH - Vote: SMB (6/8)

ZFS | Posted 4/9/2009 2:21:27 PM | message detail | filter | #131

aw yeah

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Kaxon | Posted 4/9/2009 3:05:55 PM | message detail | filter | #132

I don't see much great on that list !!

I thought you were a big IOG fan! But anyway, the games I was talking about were Soul Blazer, Actraiser, and EVO. Man, Enix was good back then.
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I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience

Ed Bellis | Posted 4/9/2009 3:17:54 PM | message detail | filter | #133

Just goes to show, never listen to board 8.

Yes, because Board 8 users are never in the top percentile for the vast majority of the contest. Whenever there's an upset that the cookie cutter B8er picks against, it's always "NEVER LISTEN TO THE BOARD LOL" despite the fact that for every match the board (assuming such a collective entity actually exists, which it doesn't) calls correctly, nobody pays it any mind.

Sorry, pet peeve.
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This was KING BELLIS LOL
ed status: Maybe the chef was Darkseid. You don't mess with Darkseid. -MoogleKupo141

Kaxon | Posted 4/9/2009 3:25:38 PM | message detail | filter | #134

That post was pretty lolworthy. "I thought Punch-Out would get blown out. It turned out it was actually pretty close, like the b8 debates would have led you to believe. Never listen to board 8 lol!"
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I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience

Zylo the wolf | Posted 4/9/2009 5:44:59 PM | message detail | filter | #135

Wow I forgot about this, I'm currently writing one. Sorry for being so late.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. FastFalcon05 > Me

Ngamer64 | Posted 4/9/2009 6:28:19 PM | message detail | filter | #136

What's that you say? The Crewmember who got booted off the island is the only one who's still perfect through three days? And Leon, tranny, and King Moltar are a BRUTAL 1/3?!

Delicious.

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thengamer.com/guru/ says we just got owned hard by FastFalcon!
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com are neat)

LeonhartFour | Posted 4/9/2009 6:55:42 PM | message detail | filter | #137

It'll only make it sweeter when you're on the bottom of the pile at the end of the contest!
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

KamikazePotato | Posted 4/9/2009 6:56:41 PM | message detail | filter | #138

So is anyone going to change their predictions because of the match pic or am I overreacting?

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.

ZFS | Posted 4/9/2009 6:58:18 PM | message detail | filter | #139

Nah. Metroid has a pic advantage, but it's not huge or anything. Plus, there's a Zelda in the way.

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http://i44.tinypic.com/sficrr.jpg

KamikazePotato | Posted 4/9/2009 6:59:15 PM | message detail | filter | #140

Eh, I figured it'd be worth at least a percent. It's not like it's going to take much to sway people's votes when we're dealing with NES games.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.

ZFS | Posted 4/9/2009 7:00:31 PM | message detail | filter | #141

Gonna need more than a percent to beat Contra!

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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/9/2009 7:01:33 PM | message detail | filter | #142

Yeah, it's gonna need Contra being worth very little! oh wait

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.

KamikazePotato | Posted 4/9/2009 7:02:11 PM | message detail | filter | #143

And if you had it being a close match, that percent could've meant a world of difference!

But this is all moot, we all know DWIII has this.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.

trannyscience | Posted 4/9/2009 7:06:21 PM | message detail | filter | #144

writeup spoilers - Metroid and Contra is a toss-up
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xyzzy
http://i42.tinypic.com/2vbwhn4.jpg

LeonhartFour | Posted 4/9/2009 7:07:45 PM | message detail | filter | #145

I went with Contra solely due to "It gets SFF'd less than Metroid against Zelda" Factor.

Seriously, straight up Metroid wins easily.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

I lowered Contra, but I felt I had it too high in the first place.

Also just want to give props to the Crew + Guests so far. It's really great everyone is sending these in early and making things a lot easier for me. Keep it up!
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Moltar Status: let's go
DH/Galaga/NH/SMB - Bracket: SMB > DH - Vote: SMB (6/8)

Ed Bellis | Posted 4/9/2009 7:15:22 PM | message detail | filter | #147

On that note - Moltar, is it cool if I email you a change in my percentages in two seconds?
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This was KING BELLIS LOL
ed status: i'll lose to FASTFALCON on my own time

Division 1: Round 1 - Match 4 – Dragon Warrior III vs. Contra vs. Metroid vs. The Legend of Zelda

Moltar’s Analysis

DW3
2004 Results: N/A

hey rpg franchise to suck up 10%

Contra
2004 Results: Won in Round 1 against Phantasy Star
Lost in Round 2 against Final Fantasy

Up Up Down Down Left Right Left Right B A Start

Metroid
2004 Results: Won in Round 1 against Pac-Man
Lost in Round 2 against Super Mario Bros. 3

Apparently that Samus robot was in a game before Super Smash Bros.

Legend of Zelda
2004 Results: Won in Round 1 against Adventure
Won in Round 2 against Donkey Kong
Won in Round 3 against Tetris
Lost in Round 4 against Super Mario Bros. 3

Remember back in the old days when our Zelda games had no trains? Ahh, memories.

Well isn’t this just a big ol’ 8-Bit Division reunion. We can figure out who gets first here two different ways. 1) Legend of Zelda got 43% against SMB3, while Metroid only got 22% on it. Plus, Final Fantasy, the game that beat Contra 70-30, lost to it in a 60-40 match. Therefore, we can conclude that LoZ is stronger than both Metroid and Contra. Therefore, we have proven that Legend of Zelda will take first. QED.

2) It’s freakin’ Zelda, top of the Nintendo food chain. It will easily clean house here.

The debate here is between Metroid and Contra for second place. As stated before, Contra was able to get 30% on Final Fantasy, while Metroid only scraped up 22% on SMB3. Now I’m not a calculator, but that ends up putting the two games fairly close to each other. However, one of those was an SFF match, and as we’ve seen with Metroid in matches against Mario or Zelda (seen too much augh), Metroid (Samus-excluded) gets beaten down every time.

Now we see Metroid vs. Zelda again (and not to spoil the contest but this isn’t the last time we’re seeing it) and guess what’s going to happen? Zelda’s going to beat it down. Even with the beatdown, it does stand a chance of taking second. However, what’s going to end up mattering here is the four-way format. Contra is a game with decent strength, and it stands out here against the core Nintendo franchises and JRPG that will suck up 10%. I think it’s going to take advantage of that and sneak into second.

I’m hoping Metroid overcomes the odds here (it’s got my vote), but it’s getting killed here.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2449

Yeah, that’s from the series contest, but it might as well apply here. If Contra loses this one, it’ll be because it was somehow even weaker than that.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: LoZ > Contra

Moltar’s Prediction is: LoZ: 57% - Contra: 18% - Metroid: 14% - DW3: 11%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

After SMB1's total domination yesterday, everyone has turned to Zelda to see how it'll stack up in comparison. I think Zelda 1 is going to wreck this pack hard, but it won't be to the same degree as Mario did yesterday, but that's fine -- this group is much tougher than a buncha scrubs like Ninja Gaiden and Punch-Out. This is actually the overall strongest fourpack in this division. Thanks, 1972!

But for all that the competition is stronger here than any other fourpack so far, it's also probably the easiest match to predict. We all know that Zelda 1 is going to mop up on this group, but second place shouldn't be much of a 'fight' either. Metroid is going to get hit hard having Zelda in the poll -- I wouldn't be surprised if it went lower than the meager 13% I'm predicting. Contra may not seem like the strongest entry, but it did put 30% on FF1 back in 2004. That should be more than enough to let it get by a heavily SFF'd Metroid.

As for Dragon Warrior III, despite it probably being the best game in the poll, it won't do much more than 10%. But, hey, if it can keep in the double digits that'll be a win for it!

Bad division down, good ones comin'!

The Legend of Zelda -- 56%
Contra -- 20%
Metroid -- 13%
Dragon Warrior III -- 11%

Bracket: The Legend of Zelda > Contra
Favorites: Contra > Dragon Warrior III

Lopen’s Analysis

I don't really have too much that's remotely clever or interesting to say about this match, sorry. Basically what you've got is some game that hasn't been released in the US (correct me if I'm wrong not that I give a crap-- suck it Dragon Warrior Fanboyz), a SFF dance, and Contra who supposedly will take advantage of that, according to guru consensus.

Not sure why it's so decisively guru consensus. Clingyness to 5 year old contests or something, I guess. This match is a bit up in the air with me. I went with Contra because, yeah, I'm clingy to 5 years ago when Metroid got SHUT DOWN by Zelda, but also because Contra was probably a more popular game back in the old days. So it's got the “actual fans” factor and SFF going for it here.

U U D D L R L R B A Start (I swear I used to think it was A B for some games back then, did any of them screw it up?). Man, I wish codes were still like that. Infamous codes are pretty cool. Way better than these damn arbitrary sequences of inputs and passwords. ... most games of course have memory cards/hard drive space now and so the cheat code is somewhat obsolete... but what if you could cheat memory car-- I'm going to shut up now. Contra > Metroid believe.

Lopen's prediction
Legend of Zelda – 50.41%
30 Lives Suck it down – 22.30%
Metroid – 17.02%
Dragon Warrior 3 – 10.27%

Transience’s Analysis

Man, I am off this contest. Mario 1 went and put up a HUGE number on the field, and while that field is absolutely pathetic, it's still a nice accomplishment. Now we're looking at a "anything you can do, I can do better" setup -- it's kinda similar to old contests when Cloud and Link would try and outdo each other each time. Now of course, Mario 1 and Tetris aren't Cloud and Link, but watching them try to exceed each other is one of the highlights so far.

Which brings us to today's match. First place is obvious and it'll probably have more than the other three combined. Zelda 1 isn't competing with Contra and Metroid, it's competing with Mario 1. It's got a much tougher pack than Mario 1, too. Contra is stronger than Ninja Gaiden and Metroid is miles stronger than Duck Hunt (and, from the looks of it, Mega Man 2 as well).

Contra and Metroid is a funny second place match. Metroid has historically gotten killed by Zelda, but so will any obscure NES game. Contra is simply not in the spotlight anymore while Metroid still has some franchise power. Contra got less oh Phantasy Star than Metroid got on Pac-Man in 2004 -- everyone here would take Pac-Man over Phantasy Star, too. Contra's weak.

I'm going with Contra though. Metroid's name brand is going to get completely nerfed by Zelda and the actual game is a dated mess. Of course, this is the same reasoning I used for Punch-Out over DK, but I think Zelda hurts Metroid far more than Tetris could ever hurt anything.

And one final sentence for DW3, a kickass game that just has no shot here.

Metroid's old and sucks
Contra is still fun today
Zelda crushes all

transience's prediction:

The Legend of Zelda - 61%
Contra - 16%
Metroid - 14%
Dragon Warrior 3 - 9%

Leon’s Analysis

Dragon Warrior III: To be honest, I don’t know much about the Dragon Warrior/Quest series because I’ve never played a game in it. It was pretty popular back in the day, from what I hear, but it doesn’t seem to be too popular these days, even on GameFAQs, where RPGs can excel. The series got tripled by Smash Bros. back in the Series Contest, which doesn’t speak well of its strength. I suppose DWIII’s got a shot since it won’t need a large percentage to advance, but I’m not betting on it. I just hope the whining isn’t as bad as it was when DQ lost in the Series Contest…

Contra: Contra did decently enough in the first Games Contest, posting an easy win over Phantasy Star before scoring 30% on Final Fantasy. Normally, I wouldn’t consider Contra advancing over Metroid, but there’s a Zelda in the way. Sure, Contra will probably suffer some SFF of its own, but I doubt it’ll be as rough as what Metroid gets. The fact that Contra isn’t as closely connected to Zelda as Metroid is may be the difference maker here.

Metroid: Metroid is one of those games that can do well as long as it can stay away from the Mario or Zelda series. It scored 68% on Pac-Man in the first round in the last Games Contest, but only got 22% on Mario 3 in the second round. Unfortunately, it gets stuck with LoZ right off the bat. Metroid is likely stronger than Contra straight up, but the SFF is going to be rough here. The fact that it won’t need much to get second place could work to its advantage, but in the end, I think it’ll come up short.

The Legend of Zelda: Like with Super Mario Bros., it’s not a matter of if Legend of Zelda gets first place, it’s how much it gets. LoZ’s got a tougher first round pack than SMB does, so if it can put up a similar percentage to SMB here, that bodes well for it in their showdown in round 2. I expect Zelda to score over 50% one way or the other.

Leonhart’s Vote: Contra, showing some shmup love.

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Dragon Warrior III – 13.63%
Contra – 17.16%
Metroid – 16.67%
The Legend of Zelda – 52.54%

Ed Bellis’s Analysis

Here we have probably the simplest match of the first division, but given the wackiness of the four-way format, anything’s possible!

Dragon Warrior III. The series that QUITE OUTRAGEOUSLY lost to Smash Bros. in the series contest gets its lone rep in the contest. DW3 probably doesn’t stand much of a chance here – despite being the lone RPG in the bunch, it’s also the game with the smallest GF fanbase.

Contra. BACON YOU ARE MESSING UP THE ALPHABETICAL ORDER AHHHHHH anyway, Contra beat out Phantasy Star in 2004 and lost to the original Final Fantasy. The real match-within-a-match here is between Contra and Metroid… at least it would be if Metroid weren’t going to get SFFed to holy hell and back. Contra’s still a relevant, popular series, and that should make a heap of difference here.

Metroid. I have absolutely zero faith in Metroid games here, be they original, Super, or Prime. Metroid has already proven – thrice in the series contest and in every match with Samus – that it folds completely under SFF situations, and this contest is filled to the brim with SFF. Against Zelda 1, the original Metroid – which I wasn’t even aware people still played – will likely crumble.

The Legend of Zelda. Zelda 1 made it to Round Three in 2004, demolishing Tetris in Round Two and beating the living snot out of some Atari game in Round One (seriously company caps were a worse idea than anything Bacon’s done put together) before losing to SMB3. It might have been the second strongest game in the 8-Bit Division, but that was without SMB1 and the Mega Mans (Mega Men?) in the mix. Oh well, it won’t have to be very strong to defeat the opposition.

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