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Best Game Ever 2 Contest Analysis Crew

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Lopen | Posted 4/15/2009 9:43:41 PM | message detail | filter | #451

DKC would probably easily double any of SMB3's opponents. And that's not even the projected second place entrant here.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.

greatone10 | Posted 4/15/2009 9:44:54 PM | message detail | filter | #452

Hell, Streets of Rage would probably take second in that four pack just on the merit of being on a Sega console.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.

ZFS | Posted 4/15/2009 9:46:22 PM | message detail | filter | #453

Doom might, but not a SFFed DKC. I think my percentage might be high, but I'd be surprise if LttP couldn't do 50% on competition like this. It's better than what we had before, but it's definitely not good.

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http://i41.tinypic.com/zk6ct3.gif

Lopen | Posted 4/15/2009 9:49:37 PM | message detail | filter | #454

Yeah, even SFFed DKC. I'd take Doom to quad any of them.

You've got to understand: Secret of Monkey Island won that thing. You know, the guy who gets doubled by Ryo Hazuki?
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.

Ngamer64 | Posted 4/15/2009 10:58:49 PM | message detail | filter | #455

The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past - 57.23%
Doom - 20.57%
Donkey Kong Country - 16.45%
Streets of Rage II - 5.75%

Still writing!

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The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either)

trannyscience | Posted 4/15/2009 11:10:32 PM | message detail | filter | #456

I knew I should have gone for the upset! argh
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xyzzy
http://i42.tinypic.com/2vbwhn4.jpg

Ngamer64 | Posted 4/15/2009 11:12:49 PM | message detail | filter | #457

Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup

What an awesome match today! Even though I gave SMK enough credit to say it'd be able to keep it pretty close, I would never in 100 years have predicted that the two SNES games would be able to eat up 70+% of the vote in this match... and even if you'd told me that I would still have assumed that Metroid was at least 55/45ing the Kart entry. Don't get me wrong, I love the Kart series and have always thought that at least MK64 would have some decent potential in a Contest, but as I explained yesterday I just didn't feel the 4way format was well-suited to MK. Very pleased to see myself proven wrong here, especially since it means Sonic is out of the mix and thus as long as Super Met doesn't get as SFF-crushed by LttP as SMK (something I feel pretty good about), my crazy Metroid to R3 pick is going to be sitting pretty!

...what's that you say? There's one non-SNES title that's still going to be there to rain on Super Metroid's parade next round? We'll just see about THAT! I love the DKC series, DKC2 is one of my favorite games ever, and I'm sure much of GameFAQs feels the same way. You guys must not realize that these games were HUGE sellers at the end of the console's lifespan and that everyone and their mother is going to be voting in support of- oh, wait a minute,

What's your all-time favorite 2D platform game series?
Bubble Bobble 1.93% 1755
Castlevania 14.03% 12738
Donkey Kong Country 5.96% 5415
Ghosts 'n Goblins 0.8% 729
Mega Man 18.54% 16834
Sonic the Hedgehog 15.67% 14231
Super Mario Bros. 43.06% 39097
TOTAL VOTES 90799

Erm, ouch! I'd been a major supporter of getting DKC2 and Diddy Kong into a bracket before this poll result came out in (I think) mid 2007, but this really crushed my hopes for the series having any kind of strength. Now granted Mario was the worst possible opponent, and it probably gets platform SFFed by MM and Sonic somewhat as well, but come ON, to get almost tripled by Castlevania? Then Didddy himself went out and laid a rotten egg last summer to put another nail in the coffin of my DKC enthusiasm. I'm still glad to see them in this bracket, but yeah, I fully expect the results to be kind of ugly.

Actually I'm so far from sold on these games right now that I'm not even positive I'd be able to take either of them over Doom 1v1, which of course means that I never gave this upset any serious consideration with Zelda being in the mix. HOWEVER, I'd sure love to be proven wrong, and you could make a case for some signs pointing to the upset... Nintendo has dominated the Contest to this point, expected SFFings didn't end up happening to Metroid and SMK, and older PC games have looked flat out awful- even Monkey Island looked downright terrible despite advancing! But nay, just can't get my hopes up.

Feel free to go ahead and prove me wrong though, DKC; it would certainly help my Super Metroid pick if you could manage it! Final answer:

The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past - 57.23%
Doom - 20.57%
Donkey Kong Country - 16.45%
Streets of Rage II - 5.75%

Looks... pretty decent, I'd say!

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The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either)

LinkLegend27 | Posted 4/15/2009 11:20:12 PM | message detail | filter | #458

Analysis Crew falling flat on its face again.. haha. Don't worry about it guys <3
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Fortes in Unitate.
I ain't conceited only positive and way better

Lopen | Posted 4/15/2009 11:52:54 PM | message detail | filter | #459

You dare mock the Analysis Crew?

We have called this match correctly. Tremble in the face of DOOM.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.

Gunstar Heroes..................5.25% 6146
Sonic the Hedgehog 3.....24.29% 28420
Super Mario Kart.............35.16% 41133
Super Metroid.................35.29% 41287
TOTAL VOTES............................116986

Matches Completely Correct - 4
Matches Partially Correct - 5
Matches Completely Wrong - 0

What Happened - what happened indeed. In one of the weirdest matches we've seen, Super Metroid was barely able to beat Super Mario Kart for second. Way behind in third was Sonic 3, the heavy board favorite for second. Even further behind was Gunstar Heroes.

Why it Happened - Well, Sonic doing poorly can be attributed to all the Mario and Nintendo here. Sonic 1 doing well in its match should have meant good things for Sonic 3 here, but then it goes and does this. Gotta be the Nintendo. As for SMK doing so well...that's pretty baffling. Mario Kart tends to stink it up in polls. Granted, we haven't seen SMK actually perform before now, but the series contest and other polls didn't point to it doing this! Also Super Metroid's strength is now called into question.

What Will Happen - SM should hold up better in R2 against more Nintendo than SMK.

Crew Prediction Challenge - No points today

Guest - 6
HM - 5
Moltar - 5
Tran - 4
Leon - 3
Lopen - 3
Ed - 3

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Leon gets the point for SM, SMK and Sonic, Ed gets the point for GH

Lopen - 7
Tran - 7
HM - 6
Moltar - 6
Guest (Luster, Zylo (3), HaRR) - 5
Leon - 5
Ed - 3
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Moltar Status: you can't hide forever
Match 10 - Bracket: LttP > Doom - Vote: DKC (28/36)

LeonhartFour | Posted 4/16/2009 7:08:09 AM | message detail | filter | #461

Whoa, three points today despite having the order all wrong, except for SM!

Granted, we haven't seen SMK actually perform before now, but the series contest and other polls didn't point to it doing this!

Nobody cares about any Mario Kart after the first two!
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Ngamer64 | Posted 4/16/2009 4:42:12 PM | message detail | filter | #462

Super Metroid's lead over SMK yesterday maxed 598, making it the second closest wire-to-wire match since we moved to 4ways (and the 4th closest ever, behind only Frog/Liquid and CT/LttP from the 1v1 days).

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Closest_wire-to-wire_matches#Closest_wire-to-wire_matches_-_4_way_format

Pretty great! ...and then TODAY, DKC was only able to extend its overnight lead as high as 463 votes, meaning that if Doom is able to limit the damage the rest of the way, this will be the new closest wire to wire match in 4way history (and second all time, coming just 3 votes short of Frog's world record).

What a Contest!

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The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either)

LinkLegend27 | Posted 4/16/2009 4:43:56 PM | message detail | filter | #463

Yeah, I take that comment I made back.. very close match.
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Fortes in Unitate.
I ain't conceited only positive and way better

Ngamer64 | Posted 4/16/2009 7:56:31 PM | message detail | filter | #464

Noooo, slow down Donkey Kong, you're going to ruin your record!

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The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either)

Division 3: Round 1 - Match 11 – Final Fantasy VI vs. Mega Man X vs. Phantasy Star IV vs. The Legend of Zelda: Link’s Awakening

Moltar’s Analysis

FF6
2004 Results: Won in Round 1 against Mortal Kombat
Won in Round 2 against Doom
Lost in Round 3 against Link to the Past

The strongest “old” Final Fantasy steps up to the plate.

MMX
2004 Results: N/A

Let’s see if adding an X to the end of Mega Man makes a difference.

Phantasy Star IV
Lost in Round 1 against Super Metroid

Phantasy Star gets into the Games Contest again…and it will lose again.

Link’s Awakening
2004 Results: N/A

ZELDA

*We now interrupt this regularly scheduled analysis with something a little more…crazy.*

Previously, Link and his crew were sailing on the Great Sea. Another boat then started to approach them, a boat from the country of Midgar.

A world united,
Becomes divided,
War starts without fail
Now witness the tale
Intermission…

3: Power of Lon Lon

*The Midgar ship fires a cannonball at the King of Red Lions, which barely misses it.*

Deku: They’re attacking us!

Goron: No ****, Sherlock.

Zelda: But why? The lands are all at peace.

Link: We don’t have time to ask questions. Zora, let’s go stop them!

Zora: Right!

*Zora jumps into the water*

Link: Lon Lon…Transform! *Link transforms into a Zora and also jumps into the water.*

*The enemy ship fires a second cannon, this time at Zora and Link. The two narrowly escape the blast.*

???: So that’s the power of the cursed Lon Lon Fruit, transformation. How about another test, ‘Go and Slice, Roku!’

*As Zora and Link head to the other boat, two purple energy attacks shaped like scythes emerge from the top of the boat and travel towards the two.*

Zora: Link, watch out!

*Link jumps up and slices through one of the beams. While in the air, he catches a glimpse at the person on the boat.*

Link: What? It’s her?

Zora: Link, the others!

*Link turns to see the other part of the attack head towards the King of Red Lions.

Tingle: Oh lordy it’s coming for us!

Goron: How about ya’ll stop doing nothing and do something about that purple ****.

*Zelda creates a barrier in front of the boat, which stops the attack.*

???: I see…Locke, we’re retreating. We’ve got everything we needed.

*The Midgar ship starts to turn around and head away.*

Zora: They’re retreating? But why?

Link: What was that all about…that woman on the boat was the Captain of Squad 6, Terra Branford. Why would she attack us?

~*To Be Continued*~

Well, PS4 takes last here obviously. Final Fantasy, Mega Man and Zelda are all big names, PS4 will get its cult votes and that’s it.

The rest of this match is interesting because of Link’s Awakening. Compared to the other Zelda games, it’s on the low-end of the totem pole. However, we’ve never seen what it can do on its own. If you take away other Zelda games, it obviously has to go up. The big question is how high up will it go.

Final Fantasy VI is out of reach. I wouldn’t even dare to put LA’s ceiling that high (even though it actually could be that strong, hell if I know). Still, FF6 came pretty close to LttP, the second strongest Zelda game, so unless LA is some kind of beast, FF6 should have first here without too much problem.

Mega Man X is a different story. LA, being a lower-tier Zelda, is likely to be around its range. We’ve already seen MM2 and MM3 perform, so we have some idea of how MMX will do. MM2 disappointed and MM3 did okay, but still got beat pretty bad by FF4. The one saving grace is that going by series polls; MMX should be stronger than the original series, but who knows for sure.

So yeah, kind of risky calling for a Zelda game to lose early, but if it’s going to be any Zelda game, it might as well be Link’s Awakening. It should keep it close with MMX, as it will benefit from franchise votes. What will give MMX the edge is that it’s more of a fan-favorite than LA.

To be honest, I’m not feeling too good about MMX winning with only Mario, Zelda and FF impressing thus far. I still have some faith in it, but LA has been looking better and better here since the contest started. Might as well stick with my bracket for now.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: FF6 > MMX

Moltar’s Prediction is: FF6: 46% - MMX: 24% - Zelda: LA: 23% - PS4: 7%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

During the bracket period, I didn't think too much about this match. FFVI and MMX seemed like the only real choice here, but with how this contest has played out so far, I'm starting to realize that people really don't care much for games that aren't made from Square or Nintendo when it comes to these old games, on top of the ever present franchise voting. After everything we've seen, it's hard not to go with Link's Awakening for second.

Let's compare so far -- Zelda 1 wrecked its pack; LttP put up 56% on its pack today, taking DKC with it instead of Doom; Mega Man games have ranged from barely beating Pac-Man to getting beat hard by Final Fantasy. That doesn't paint a nice picture today for MMX, even if you do consider it the strongest individual Mega Man game. The arguments against Link's Awakening are essentially that it's a handheld Zelda (and those have never done well) and that it's not really one of the standout titles in the series. That's something, but not entirely convincing when we see FF1 keeping Super Mario World within 10%.

But still, we're talking about Zelda here, a series second only to Final Fantasy (that's right you heard me hold FF vs. Zelda today and we have a different result !) when it comes to franchise voting. Everything today screams Link's Awakening. With FFVI dominating the poll, what's the most likely to have the fanbase to slip into second?

Final Fantasy VI -- 52%
Link's Awakening -- 23%
Mega Man X -- 20%
Phantasy Star IV -- 5%

Bracket: Final Fantasy VI > Mega Man X
Favorites: Final Fantasy VI > Mega Man X

Lopen’s Analysis

Phantasy Star IV, despite being one value higher than Final Fantasy 3 and having that rebellious ph, has no chance of doing anything here. Its brother got crushed by Contra, after all. And I don't think any convincing needs to be made that FF6 takes first-- seeing as it hung tough with LttP of all games a while back.

The true match is between Mega Man X and Link's Awakening. I have this feeling that Mega Man games will be the type to do poorly with the wide open casual vote, but hold up better as the competition steps it up. Despite Mega Man 2 and Mega Man 3 underperforming relative to everyone's expectations here, I'm going to take a chance and say Mega Man X comes out of this one looking pretty good. Either because of my first theory, or because Mega Man X is stronger than the other two games... or a little of both.

Link's Awakening, while it is a Zelda game, is like on the 7th tier of Zelda games, whereas Mega Man X is on the top tier of Mega Man games. Franchise votes can only get one so far... and with big guns like the Final Fantasy and Mega Man (?!) brands being represented here, I think LA's franchise votes are going to be in short supply. And I don't respect the game's strength enough to think it takes Mega Man X. It's still a handheld game, after all, and it's not like it's ever done well on the favorite Zelda game polls. An unpopular pick to be sure at this point, but that's how I'm goin. Time to stop floppin, Mega Man!

Lopen's Prediction
Final Fantasy 6 – 44.44%
Mega Man X – 30.12%
Link's Awakening – 22.40%
Phinal Phantasy Phour – 4.04%

Transience’s Analysis

I went against the consensus yesterday in saying that DKC had a legit shot against Doom thanks to SFF not being severe in this contest, and that's what happened - DKC looked pretty good and Doom's got one hell of an uphill battle if it wants to win this match. I didn't have the balls to take DKC though so in the end it doesn't matter. Next round we've got an uber-Nintendo pack -- one of the most intriguing matches of round 2.

As for today's match: ZELDA.

That's what this is all about. How strong is the Zelda name? We're talking about a low-tier handheld title. Link's Awakening is at least a full tier below the Majora's Masks and Wind Wakers of the world.

But if this was Wind Waker, we'd be debating first place, not second. LA doesn't have to be super strong to place.

LA's opponent is Mega Man X, arguably the strongest Mega Man title. How much is that worth? Well, at the very least it won't bomb. Even though we haven't seen it in action, MMX is a known quantity: it'll have decent strength but nothing mindblowing. It's not going to go above and beyond what MM2 and 3 did, and I doubt it goes much below it if at all. It's a mid-tier title. It probably would compete with the DKCs of the world, but I expect the name ZELDA to be worth more.

Ultimately, I made up my mind on my bracket based on this -

MMX - http://www.gamefaqs.com/console/snes/home/588479.html -- 287 votes
LA - http://www.gamefaqs.com/portable/gbcolor/home/197769.html - 298 votes

I always thought MMX was a bigger title, but even on this site LA has more people playing it. My Games is hardly a good barometer, but if MMX can't even get an edge in playership, how's it going to beat the title that's eight miles bigger in name recognition? In this contest so far, the bigger name has won. Zelda already put 80% on the MMX series. This is probably going to be ugly from the opening minute of the poll. After seeing Sonic utterly fold to Nintendo a couple days ago, I have a hard time seeing Mega Man avoid the same fate.

handheld games winning?
yes, when the game is ZELDA
Mega Man's screwed

transience's predix:

Final Fantasy VI - 44%
The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening - 28%
Mega Man X - 20%
Phantasy Star IV - 8%

Leon’s Analysis

Final Fantasy VI: Our first Final Fantasy/Zelda matchup of the contest, and it’s not even going to be close! You’ve got the 2nd or 3rd most popular Final Fantasy taking on a 4th tier Zelda at best. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of numbers FFVI can put up here because there are some people who question how strong it is nowadays, but there’s no doubt it wins this match.

Mega Man X: It’s nice to see Mega Man X in these contests. I prefer this series to the original series, and I love this game here. There are a couple of old polls that suggest that Mega Man X is the most popular series in the Mega Man franchise, which works in its favor. The question is how an individual game in the series will stand the test. If it’s weak enough, it could possibly be ousted by the Zelda name, which is a legitimate concern here. This game has a decently wide range of where it could fall.

Phantasy Star IV: Well, it got a whopping 16.71% on Super Metroid in 2004, and it’s facing a game that’s noticeably stronger than that in Final Fantasy VI. Yeah, I can’t say I’m optimistic about its chances here! It’ll probably struggle to break 10% unless it’s got a pretty hardcore cult following that is big enough to keep it at least to that level.

The Legend of Zelda: Link’s Awakening: This game probably gave me the biggest headache when I first started filling out my bracket. Of course, there’s power in the Zelda name, but then again, this is Link’s Awakening. How much is the franchise voting worth in a situation like this? If it can get past round 1, there’s really nothing stopping it from getting past round 2 either, so this is a decent upset pick that could pan out. Of course, I wonder how big of an upset it would actually be among the casuals. It’s hard to say.

Leonhart’s Vote: Mega Man X, voting for more 2-D platformers here!

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Final Fantasy VI – 38.67%
Mega Man X – 27.90%
Phantasy Star IV – 7.12%
The Legend of Zelda: Link’s Awakening – 25.31%

Ed Bellis’s Analysis

Another match with three likely-to-be-strong games. damn you generational seeding

Final Fantasy VI. Arguably the third (by a hair) strongest SNES game on the site, and at least the third strongest FF game on the site, FF6 has a rematch with Link to the Past to look forward to later in this division. Franchise voting was a huge factor with previous Final Fantasy titles – and peole actually like this one. Scary, that.

Mega Man X. Damn you Mega Man !! I banked on this actually being the strongest of the Mega Man titles, or at the very least as strong as Mega Man 2… which apparently isn’t strong at all. Huh. At any rate, Mega Man 3 lost to Final Fantasy 4, so Mega Man X – which is probably weaker than both games – loses to FF6. The real question is, can it take second?

Phantasy Star IV. who cares lol

Zelda: Link’s Awakening. Zelda’s been handed two first-place matches thus far, and here’s the first time where it’ll have to settle for second place, if that. Final Fantasy VI is a juggernaut, and franchise voting doesn’t extend that far. That said, Link’s Awakening will probably be very strong in its own right as well.

So. FF6 and its ENSEMBLE CAST get first, Mega Man X and Link’s Awakening duke it out for second place. And some crap entrant gets like around eight percent.

I’m giving the edge, bracket be damned, to Link’s Awakening. Mega Man games have really stunk it up so far, and Link’s Awakening is one of the most popular Game Boy games of all time. I’m not terribly confident in this, but given this contest I’m not so confident in my own feet touching the ground any more. >_>

Prediction: phant’ass’y star LOL
Final Fantasy VI with 39.22%
Mega Man X with 21.21%
Phantasy Star IV with 8.48%
The Legend of Zelda: Link’s Awakening with 31.09%

Crew Consensus: Split between FF6 > LA and FF6 > MMX without a Guest.

PhD_inTHC | Posted 4/16/2009 8:54:55 PM | message detail | filter | #469

guest = ec

ZELDA

FF6: 45%
LoZ: LA: 27%
MMX: 22%
who cares IV: 6%

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all hail ec your lord and savior

well it's settled, Crew Consensus is now FF6 > Zelda: LA!
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Moltar Status: you can't hide forever
Match 10 - Bracket: LttP > Doom - Vote: DKC (28/36)

trannyscience | Posted 4/16/2009 9:01:01 PM | message detail | filter | #471

hey, people stuck with their brackets. didn't expect that!
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xyzzy
http://i42.tinypic.com/2vbwhn4.jpg

Lopen | Posted 4/16/2009 9:11:57 PM | message detail | filter | #472

ZELDA fear not here
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.

-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/16/2009 9:11:57 PM | message detail | filter | #473

well it's settled, Crew Consensus is now FF6 > Zelda: LA!

He didn't even do a write-up, so should his prediction even count?
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

Ngamer64 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:14:22 PM | message detail | filter | #474

He did a writeup. It was one word long, which was all he needed.

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The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either)

Ed Bellis | Posted 4/16/2009 9:15:07 PM | message detail | filter | #475

i will do two writeups

and have neither one get points
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This was KING BELLIS LOL
ed status: [00:26] <pxl> i'd steamboat her willie if you know what i mean

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:25:10 PM | message detail | filter | #476

prepare to be blown away tomorrow folks
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I'm gonna keep on going, I know I'll be strong.
http://i195.photobucket.com/albums/z114/Javer8000/FanimeCon2008/Sandbag.jpg

Ngamer64 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:52:41 PM | message detail | filter | #477

Dang, the one night I want to get in a writeup early, but I can't because this match pic is going to determine which game I pick!

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The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either)

Ngamer64 | Posted 4/16/2009 10:54:56 PM | message detail | filter | #478

Okay, after seeing that pick, my final decision is

Final Fantasy VI - 45.10%
Mega Man X - 23.54%
The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening - 23.39%
Phantasy Star IV - 7.97%

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The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either)

Ngamer64 | Posted 4/16/2009 11:32:11 PM | message detail | filter | #479

Ngamer's Rebellious Writeup

First of all, a salute to DKC and Doom for putting on such an enjoyable show for us today. I figured DK would get off to a strong start thanks to the board and the early lead didn't surprise me, but I was shocked when it continued to hold up pretty well against Zelda all the way through the opening hour. Still, DK's track record beyond the opening hours is pretty pathetic, both as a character (see DK vs Master Chief or Vercetti) and a game (Duck Hunt), and with Zelda sure to suck up so much of the Nintendo fan vote during the day, I still gave Doom an excellent shot at completing the comeback. I didn't get to see the poll when Doom had maxed out its lead above 300, but if so I think I might very well have thrown in the towel on DKC... who knew it could manhandle the late ASV and second night vote like this? In any case, got to agree with tranny- this sets up a heck of an interesting R2 Nintendo-fest, considering how we've just seen DKC hold up almost exactly as well against LttP as Super Metroid managed back in '04. And then to throw a wildcard like Mario Kart in the mix on top of it all... yikes!

So after witnessing two of the five closest wire-to-wire matches in Contest history back to back, it's time to settle in for what might very well be the third historically close battle in a row! With the way Kefka and the CT crew had been fading and fading pre-CTDS I was all set to bet against FF6 the next time a Game Contest rolled around, but nah, can't see it being in any kind of danger against competition of this caliber. And Phantasy Star frankly isn't worth talking about. But as for MMX vs LA... my oh my. After a long and bitter internal struggle I ended up going with MMX in my bracket, and here's why:

- LA isn't an RPG, but I still feel that the Zeldas of this period share much of the same fanbase as FF6. with PS4 also taking a tiny bite out of the RPG pie, MMX is the one with the best chance to play the role of sore thumb and benefit from the competition

- MMX did a very impressive job of hanging tight with Mario during all the Nintendo-filled matches last year, including beating down Zelda convincingly in that 2nd round match featuring Mudkip

- as a character, MMX proved he's just as well-liked as classic MM last season (which agreed with that favorite MM series poll that's often cited), so I have no trouble believing that MMX the game is going to be just as strong as MM2 or 3, and could perhaps perform even a little better

- lower tier Zeldas probably need to count on the voters being apathetic about the other options so that they can franchise-vote their way to victory. in a poll featuring (arguably) the most beloved Mega Man title and (arguably) the second most beloved Final Fantasy, along with another series with a very small but (probably) passionate number of fans, there might not be enough "who cares" votes to save Zelda's bacon

So those were my thoughts heading into the season. HOWEVER, everything since then has gone against my original prediction- Nintendo's been a beast all around, MM hasn't impressed while both Zeldas have scored very nice blowouts for themselves... And so I was all set to pick against my bracket for the first time in '09 until I saw the match pic. Heck yeah, X is rocking one of his coolest outfits ever while Link looks flat out goofy! Plus PS got some of the least-appealing artwork I've seen and FF6 also underwhelms, so MM gets to dominate the front page all the more. As a result I've flip-flopped back to my bracket, and am going to say:

Final Fantasy VI - 45.10%
Mega Man X - 23.54%
The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening - 23.39%
Phantasy Star IV - 7.97%

Fight, Mega Man! For everlasting something or other!

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The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either)

star52789x2 | Posted 4/16/2009 11:33:30 PM | message detail | filter | #480

Some serious turbo-nerding going on in here
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A Nightingale in a golden cage,
that's me locked inside reality's maze.

LeonhartFour | Posted 4/16/2009 11:54:17 PM | message detail | filter | #481

Looks like I undershot FFVI! And here I was thinking I was doing some underestimation by having it under 40%!

Well, as long as this keeps up, I'll get the point for it for closest prediction!

Since I sure ain't getting the point for picking the match correctly, this is all I got!
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Ngamer64 | Posted 4/17/2009 12:08:45 AM | message detail | filter | #482

Those allergic to turbo nerding should probably avoid clicking into topics labeled "Contest Analysis Crew" or "Contest Stats and Discussion." Or posting on video game message boards. Just a thought.

Bah, that darn picture- I'm really not sure what I was thinking. Even assuming Link looked goofy there and MMX looked great and got out to the typical hot MM power hour start, what were the chances he wouldn't collapse like a bag of bricks during the Euro hours to a Zelda game that sold millions and millions of copies over there? And even if it wasn't completely destroyed by that continent, how was it supposed to get past the strong Zelda day vote that would follow?

Ack, if only I'd turbo nerded a little bit harder and thought through those crucial points.

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The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either)

transience | Posted 4/17/2009 12:41:43 AM | message detail | filter | #483

no need for turbo nerding here. all you needed was ZELDA.
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xyzzy
http://www.mistwalkercorp.com/en/_src/sc569/HNI_0022.jpg

Donkey Kong Country........18.01% 21336
Doom...............................17.53% 20768
Streets of Rage II..................8.21% 9723
Zelda: A Link to the Past....56.24% 66620
TOTAL VOTES 118447

Matches Completely Correct - 4
Matches Partially Correct - 6
Matches Completely Wrong - 0

What Happened - We misjudged the amount of SFF in a Zelda match...again. DKC is able to squeak by Doom even with LttP taking up a large chunk of the vote.

Why it Happened - Doom did a little worse than most people thought, and DKC didn't get SFFed as hard as people though. Very similiar to the Metroid/Contra/Zelda 1 trio. Looks like things that aren't Nintendo or Square are just flat-out screwed.

What Will Happen - SM/SMK/LttP/DKC, that's alot of Nintendo, and if youw ere to ask me which game holds up best against LttP, I'd say Metroid.

Crew Prediction Challenge - No points today, again

Guest - 6
HM - 5
Moltar - 5
Tran - 4
Leon - 3
Lopen - 3
Ed - 3

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Moltar gets the point for LttP, Ed gets the point for Doom, Lopen gets the point for DKC, and HM gets the point for SoR II.

Lopen - 8
Tran - 7
HM - 7
Moltar - 7
Guest (Luster, Zylo (3), HaRR) - 5
Leon - 5
Ed - 4
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Moltar Status: you can't hide forever
Match 11 - Bracket: FF6 > MMX - Vote: MMX (30/40)

LeonhartFour | Posted 4/17/2009 3:46:45 AM | message detail | filter | #485

and if youw ere to ask me which game holds up best against LttP, I'd say Metroid.

Of course you would!!
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

What can I say, us Metroid fans are dedicated!
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Moltar Status: you can't hide forever
Match 11 - Bracket: FF6 > MMX - Vote: MMX (30/40)

LeonhartFour | Posted 4/17/2009 12:40:19 PM | message detail | filter | #487

Dedicated = Code name for stuffers

Super Mario Kart will have its revenge!
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Ngamer64 | Posted 4/17/2009 3:18:41 PM | message detail | filter | #488

I'm really not sure what I was thinking. Even assuming Link looked goofy there and MMX looked great and got out to the typical hot MM power hour start, what were the chances he wouldn't collapse like a bag of bricks during the Euro hours to a Zelda game that sold millions and millions of copies over there?

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3456&type=2&seconds=900

*dies a little inside*

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The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either)

sorry about the late write-ups tonight, had an abnormally busy day today.

they're coming shortly (not like anyone cares about this obv match)
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Moltar Status: you can't hide forever
Match 11 - Bracket: FF6 > MMX - Vote: MMX (30/40)

Ngamer64 | Posted 4/17/2009 9:23:48 PM | message detail | filter | #490

Hmm, these days I have a tough time calling anything "obv" where Sonic is involved.

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The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either)

Ngamer64 | Posted 4/17/2009 9:24:46 PM | message detail | filter | #491

Should the writeups perhaps go in the next topic, considering how close to out of space we are?

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The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either)

Division 3: Round 1 - Match 12 – Mortal Kombat 2 vs. Secret of Mana vs. Shining Force 2 vs. Sonic the Hedgehog 2

Moltar’s Analysis

Mortal Kombat 2
2004 Results: N/A

Fatality

Secret of Mana
2004 Results: Lost in Round 1 against Chrono Trigger

Manality

Shining Force 2
2004 Results: N/A

Forcality

Sonic 2
2004 Results: Won in Round 1 against Shining Force
Lost in Round 2 against Super Mario World

Furality

sonic 2/shining force pseudo-rematch who wants this

Well this one seems easy. Sonic 2 is a good deal stronger than anything else here, and should take first without problem. Shining Force 2 looks good to take last, Secret of Mana’s cult-status should bring it into 3rd, and MK2 takes second.

Of course, if things were that easy, then everyone would agree over it and we’d all move on. Unfortunately, there’s always gotta be someone who brings up the “what ifs” to start arguments. Here’s a good “what if” for this match. What if Secret of Mana took second? We haven’t seen Secret of Mana in a poll without another more popular JRPG sucking up votes (Chrono Trigger, Final Fantasy). Well, this is its chance to shine.

The thing about cult-RPGs is that, no matter how strong or how weak the competition, they’ll still do the same. Plus the site has changed since it got 20% on CT and has become more casual. I’m not seeing SoM stepping-up in this match against two games with actual fanbases and can get franchise voted like Sonic and Mortal Kombat.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Sonic 2 > MK2

Moltar’s Prediction is: Sonic 2: 46% - MK2: 29% - Secret of Mana: 18% - Shining Force 2: 7%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

So here's a boring match today -- there's literally nothing here to be excited for, even if something good happens and Secret of Mana upsets Mortal Kombat. All of these games go no further than round 2, which makes this a pretty meaningless match. You can't even get an idea on Sonic 2 because Link's Awakening is coming along with FFVI.

As much as I would like to see SoM pull the upset there (much better game than MKII!), it probably doesn't stand much chance. It's true we've never had a chance to see it before, and 18% on Chrono Trigger after having got brutalized with SFF, isn't that bad. But after seeing FFVI slip a few notches over the past five years, there's no reason Mana wouldn't suffer the same problem, probably moreso.

MKII probably won't be that strong, but it'll use its namesake to get by here.

Sonic 2 -- 52%
Mortal Kombat II -- 23%
Secret of Mana -- 20%
Shining Force II -- 5%

Bracket: Sonic 2 > Mortal Kombat II
Favorites: Secret of Mana > who cares

Lopen’s Analysis

Mortal Kombat characters are popular. Why is that? Well the answer, friends, lies in this match. Mortal Kombat 2. This game was all the rage back in the day, and it really should be the strongest entrant Mortal Kombat can offer by a good deal. Take Mortal Kombat's performance in the game contest with a grain of salt: Mortal Kombat fans can tell the difference. Mortal Kombat has nothing on MK2, and the game should be a powerhouse.

I believe I have MK2 > Sonic 2 in my bracket... but I don't actually remember. I'm gonna go back on that one, though. If SF2 can't beat Sonic, then MK2 can't beat a more popular Sonic 2. I will say this, though: Popularitywise, MK2 should be in the same league as SF2, so you shouldn't expect a mauling, here.

Pretty cut and dry match aside from that, sorry if this one was boring.

Lopen's Prediction:
Sonic 2 – 45.33%
Mortal Kombat 2 – 34.33%
Secret of Who Cares – 13.33%
Who Cares 2 – 7.01%

Transience’s Analysis

Hmm.. I still don't know what to make of today's match. FF6 kinda disappointed me, but it looks like it's gonna recover enough to make it somewhat respectable. Link's Awakening did well, but MMX isn't far behind, telling me that it isn't in the Wind Waker class of Zelda games. (who knows about Majora's Mask -- next week!) All in all, this match isn't telling me much.

Tomorrow's match should be ugly. Sonic vs. a fighting game vs. two games that should be pretty weak. Sound familiar? Sonic 2's probably stronger than the first and MK2's certainly below SF2. There really isn't much to say about what's coming in first between those two.

MK2 could bomb though. If it does, I guess Secret of Mana could have a chance - it has a pretty solid fanbase behind it, though it's small. It didn't do THAT badly against Chrono Trigger either, considering you'd expect CT to be its absolute worst opponent. That said, SOM is a dead series today and I bet a lot of voters won't even know what it is. Its Square pedigree might give it a respectable loss, but it'll take a true SOM fanboy to make a serious argument for it.

Ladies and Gentlemen, KleenexTissue50!

no Nintendo here
Sonic zooms to a huge win
gets killed in round 2

transience's prediction:

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - 49%
Mortal Kombat II - 29%
Secret of Mana - 14%
Shining Force II - 8%

Leon’s Analysis

Mortal Kombat II: This is one of the games I’m most interested in seeing what it can do, to be honest. The original Mortal Kombat did decently on Final Fantasy VI, and there’s no doubt that MKII is the preferred old school version. I can’t see it not doing better. Depending on how you look at it, the original would give Sonic 2 a run for its money, but that depends on how much SFF you think was in Mario World/Sonic 2. I’m starting to wonder if Sonic games just aren’t that weak. We shall see. I think Mortal Kombat II’s got a great shot at an upset, especially with how poorly Sonic has been doing the last two years.

Secret of Mana: I’m not sure I buy people saying Secret of Mana’s got a shot here, but I’ll entertain it. It got 20% on Chrono Trigger, but there’s a good chance it got SFF’d. So how much SFF did it get? There’s no telling, but I just don’t see the game being popular enough to trump two well-known games. It’s a cult game that’s gotten 5 years older since the last time we saw it in action. I’d say there’s a great chance that it’s weakened since then. I won’t completely rule out an upset due to the format, but I think it’s unlikely.

Shining Force II: Sonic 2 destroyed the original Shining Force. I’m not sure why this should be any different as long as it was on the Sega Genesis as well. The only interesting possibility is if it hinders Sonic 2 at all, but I don’t expect it to since it won’t have much strength on its own to begin with. If anything, it’s going to get an SFF beatdown, so it won’t matter much.

Sonic the Hedgehog 2: Some people say this is the most popular Sonic game, but I disagree! If we could get S3&K together, I’d say it trumps Sonic 2. Some people say that the two of them together won’t make any difference than each one individually, but I disagree there as well! Regardless, I don’t know what to think of Sonic 2’s 30% on Mario World back in 2004. I doubt it’d even get that much nowadays because Mario’s gotten stronger and Sonic’s gotten weaker. It might be lucky to avoid a tripling. How much of that would be SFF though? I really don’t know. If Sonic 2 wins easily, then there probably was a good bit of SFF. If it wins a close one or loses outright, then I don’t think there was much of it there.

Leonhart’s Vote: Mortal Kombat II, best in the series!

Leonhart’s Prediction:
Mortal Kombat II – 34.21%
Secret of Mana – 23.00%
Shining Force II – 9.46%
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 – 33.33%

Ed Bellis’s Analysis

One clear winner, three jobbers… and Mega Man X has to leave early. WHYYYY

Mortal Kombat II. The late entrant to the contest (replacing Super Hyper Fighting Street Fighter II Turbo Expedient CHALLENGE EDITION), MKII follows on the heels of its predecessor, which got tripled by FF6 in 2004. The second game should reasonably be stronger, but will it be strong enough?

Secret of Mana. A little underdog if ever there was one, Secret of Mana got the crap beat out of it as fodder to Chrono Trigger. With this weak four-pack, it might have a chance at taking second.

Shining Force II. Big pet peeve: lazy bracketmaking. We already saw Shining Force I against Sonic 2 in 2004; did we really need its sequel to be fed to the beast? Oh well. Not like it would have placed, well, anywhere, really. Maybe against Prince of Persia…

Sonic the Hedgehog 2. The clear winner (though I’d probably take Mega Man X to give it a close run), Sonic 2 is probably dead in the water next round, though it at least gets to look good against total ass fodder. If Sonic 1’s success and Sonic 3’s failure are any indication, it’s that Sonic seems to do better when there’s no real competition; against entrants of actual strength, it folds. Thankfully none of these other games have actual strength then !!

So yeah. Sonic 2 sweeps and Mortal Kombat II probably takes first, with Secret of Mana lagging behind.

Prediction: something something FINISH HIM
Mortal Kombat II with 25.90%
Secret of Mana with 13.66%
Shining Force II with 5.19%
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 with 55.25%

Guest’s Analysis - KleenexTissue50

Brace yourselves.

The general consensus here is Sonic 2 > Mortal Kombat 2 from my recollection. There were some ramblings of MK upsetting Sonic when the bracket was released, but I think Sonic 1's performance kinda put a stop to that. Sonic 2 should take first here without too much trouble. Oh, and Shining Force 2's headed for a last place beating. Mortal Kombat 2's probably still the favorite for second. Man, there's a lot of 2 in this match isn't there.

BINGO!!

Through the almighty power of 2 SFF, Secret of Mana will be able to ride the SFF train to a second place victory! Nevermind that SoM's technically the second game in the series. And if that weren't enough, SoM made the second round in 2004. I mean, look, there's proof!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?search=Division+16+Round+2%3A+Chrono

Unstoppable.

But wait, there's more! Secret of Mana also finished ahead of Mortal Kombat on The List™ by a whopping 6 places. Ladies and gentlemen, if this isn't the stars aligning for an upset of epic proportions, I don't know what is.

Kleenex's "guaranteed to be right" Predictions
Game that is going to lose to Secret of Mana - 23.11%
Secret of Mana - 24.63%
Shining Force II - 5.11%
Sonic the Hedgehog the Porcupine 2 - 47.15%

Crew Consensus: Majority says Sonic > MK2, Leon has MK2 > Sonic and Kleenex has…Sonic > SoM (oh kleenex)

transience | Posted 4/17/2009 9:40:48 PM | message detail | filter | #495

Ladies and Gentlemen, KleenexTissue50!
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yzzyx

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/17/2009 9:43:32 PM | message detail | filter | #496

I don't think SoM will be miles behind, but that's partly because I expect MKII to bomb after watching what Street Fighter did.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/17/2009 9:49:37 PM | message detail | filter | #497

Ngamer, why are you waiting until after the new match starts to post your write-ups?
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

Ngamer64 | Posted 4/17/2009 9:51:39 PM | message detail | filter | #498

Because I don't have a left arm.

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The Guru ROCKS, son! http://thengamer.com/guru/
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com aren't awful either)

Kaxon | Posted 4/17/2009 10:25:39 PM | message detail | filter | #499

I have Secret of Mana winning the all-2 match in my bracket, and I didn't even realize that was a giant upset until reading this. When I filled out my bracket, I basically saw it as "Square RPG vs 3 Genesis games" (Mortal Kombat is forever associated with the Genesis in my mind because of the whole thing with the original port having "sweat" on the SNES but blood and fatalities on the Genesis - no one wanted to play the SNES version).

I always thought Secret of Mana got badly SFFed in 2004 (CT really was its worst possible opponent) and I'd have taken it over Sonic 2 straight up back then. Of course we'll never know since so much has changed in 5 years, but I'd be shocked if it's as low as Lopen, tranny, and Ed predicted.
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I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience

KamikazePotato | Posted 4/17/2009 10:30:57 PM | message detail | filter | #500

ZELDA

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

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