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Character Battle VII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 4

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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/16/2008 12:31:54 PM | message detail | #101 | filter

Has anyone claimed Link/Mario/Samus/Crono for the guest slot? If not, I'll do it.
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CB7 Score: 376/480
http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/Saturn.gif

Moltar's Analysis

woo queen of SFF time all hail samus

Really though, this match should go pretty similiar to Link and Mario's R4 match. Samus probably won't hold up as well as X, and Crono is sure to outdo Zack's percentage. Mario may give Crono a scare, since Crono does have some Nintendo in his roots, but I'm not seeing this being all that close. Crono also has a strong Square backing and is going to stand out in this poll of Nintendo icons.

Link - 39% :: Crono - 26% :: Mario - 20% :: Samus - 15%

HM's Analysis

One of the best matches of the contest right here - Mario vs Crono V. Sucks that it's not under normal circumstances (where Mario would dominate the red-haired mute !), but it may be for the better that Mario has to work with a handicap, what with how Crono has declined these past few years while Mario has looked dominate. Maybe not so much this year, with Mario having to contend with SFF in every match he's been in, but Mario would still take Crono easy in a 1-on-1 today.

So who takes Mario with these near impossible odds? Right here who wants some - I'm probably the only one on the crew picking Mario to advance.

Despite how dire it may seem, there's a decent argument to be made in the plumber's favor. He may have only beat Zack by some 1100 votes, but that was with X taking up a good 17% of the vote. You gotta figure that with him gone Mario is gonna take a good chunk of those votes for himself, with the two sharing the SNES and being platformer characters, though Link will probably steal a good share himself. Getting those extra votes from X being gone will help out a lot - but there is a Samus in the way.

Despite the fact that Samus is stronger than X, and has looked great this year, I don't expect her to hold up as well as he did. She's going to be on the end of double SFF here - the last time this happened was in the Battle Royale and that wasn't pretty. It's not just Link, who she held up well against last year, but Mario, too, which is where the bulk of her support will go. She won't be forced down into the single digits, but I can't see her anywhere but a distant fourth.

Samus pushed down into the low-teens means that Mario's going to have more percentage to work with. Last round, he got 21% against Link/Zack/X - if there's an extra 4% to work with, he can get into the mid-20s, which is what he'll need to contend with Crono.

The biggest problem here is the whole 'standout' thing. Crono's the lone Square character amongst a bunch of Nintendo, which should help him some, but not to the degree a lot are expecting, I don't think. Crono's rooted on the SNES, up against characters who all had huge games on the system. I'm not gonna say there's any big overlap that will put hurt him, but just that he's not going to be a Mewtwo or a Sonic - he doesn't stand out as much. And while last round made it look like there wasn't too much Link/Crono overlap, if there's even a hint of that here, it'll help Mario a bit by pushing Crono down.

If all else fails, there's always the fact that this is a Mario vs Crono match. You're not gonna find a better rivalry in these contests than this, and that could help out Mario. If there are voters out there who know about it, they may give their vote to him instead of Link or Samus, just to see him win over Crono. This is a real stretch, but if any match could have something crazy like this happen, it'd be Mario/Crono. I can see a number of people actually doing this, but it could end up helping Crono, too. Guess we'll find out by how much (if any) worse Link/Samus do compared to expectations.

Let's see how this goes. I think Mario's got a much better shot here than people are giving credit, though Crono is and should be the big favorite heading in, based on what we've seen up until this point. Gotta hope that Mario pulls out a miracle - we're overdue for one of these.

p.s. - if this is close in the last hour, crono is gonna learn how rallying is done 12:05 am 50 votes book it

Prediction: Link - 37% ; Mario - 25% ; Crono - 25% ; Samus - 13%

Vote: Mario - let's do this

Yoblazer's Analysis

Our first semifinal match between Link, Mario, Samus, and Crono will likely be a boring one. Crono will probably put up a nice performance, and in fact, the only interesting factor of today's match may be the extent of said overperformance. So without wasting any time, let's just jump into it.

Link is going to win, sure, but there is a growing vocal minority who claim Mario has a chance to once again squeeze through for second place. I think such talk is bordering on the ridiculous. A few days ago, Mario could barely beat Zack Fair by a thousand votes. Granted, Zack is certainly no chump, but Crono is stronger, and Crono will also be aided by the biggest Nintendo cluster**** this side of Brawl. At least Zack's match had Mega Man X, who can be logically assumed to bring in a small fanbase outside of Nintendo. Crono doesn't even have to worry about that, as X has been replaced with Samus. Seriously, if you're a voter who isn't too fond of Nintendo, Crono, not suicide, is your only option. We've seen what these complete fanbase splits have done this year. We saw what it did for Big Boss in Round 1, for Liquid Snake in Round 2, for Mewtwo in the quarterfinals, and for the newly-crowned Laughing Stock of the Universe, Sonic, just a few days ago.

The only way I can envision the battle for second being anywhere near close is if enough people are absolutely determined to make Mario/Crono v 5.0 epic. Of course, their last encounter was a long three years ago, Mario/Crono hasn't been good in over five years, and it's something that only Board 8 really see as something symbolic and special. No, I think Crono will overperform, but the question remains... to what extent? Well, I originally gave Crono 24% to Link's 40, but then I realized that this is nearly the exact same proportion Link beat him with in 2004. Crono has to do better than that, right? I adjusted my pick and now have the lesser mute swordsman just breaking 40% relative to Link. I'd have considered giving him more, but last year showed us that Link likely hurts Crono a bit as well. God damn, Link, you fierce.

This leaves Mario and Samus to duke it out for third place. While I do expect Mario to win that battle, I don't think it'll be quite as
one-sided as their 2005 encounter was. And now we wait for the far more interesting and unpredictable semifinal bout!

Link - 38%
Mario - 20%
Samus Aran - 16%
Crono - 26%

Lopen's Analysis

Heh... which one of these guys is not like the others. I thought Mario was going to win this, but after seeing lats round, where he struggled against Zack I'm not as sure. That being said... I only expected Mario to do 2-3 better than he did. I don't think Mario is going to feel much more of the SFF beatstick than he did last round. Replacing MMX with Samus... seems about the same. Samus might hurt a little more because she's a bit less independent than X, but she also might hurt a little less because she'll probably be flattened a bit more thoroughly with "freaking Mario" and Link working in tandem.

So Mario gets around the same amount... does Crono have what it takes to outdo Zack? Well last year, Crono got less than this against the same Link, Zero who is probably Samus ultra-lite, and Vincent. Going by raw strengths here you've got to figure Crono gets even less this time around. But... he is, apparently, the lone character here who isn't Nintendo through and through... that should give him the clear edge here, right? I don't think it's that simple, let me tell you why:

First of all, Samus throws a wrench into this. She probably gets her Nintendo support SFFed into the dirt, but I've always said that the reason Samus can compete with the likes of Mario indirectly yet get flattened by her directly is because she's not Nintendo through and through. Samus reaches outside that core Nintendo fanbase... and that reaching she does? It's going to directly impact what vote Crono can draw from being the odd man out.

Second of all... I'm not sure just how much the odd man Crono really is. Let me ask you something... why do you think Crono managed to turn the match around with Vincent this year in the last minutes of the match when he was trampled by over 1500 last year? Well, if it's for the reason I prophecized, it's because Link was replaced with Samus, who did less damage to Crono's Nintendo roots. I don't think Crono's going to get hurt as badly as Mario due to Nintendo fanbase overlap, but he will be hurt... and that combined with Samus doing damage with his peripherals means that this should be a really close match. Still think Crono wins because Mario did a few percent worse than I expected last round... but I don't think it's going to be a blow out. Another Crono/Mario epic is coming... with Crono squeaking out the last second win in similar fashion to last round. Time for the student to become the teacher.

Lopen's Prediction:
Link - 39.45%
Crono - 21.72%
Mario - 21.71%
Samus - 17.12%

Transience's Analysis

well, I have utterly no idea what to make of today's match. I was wondering when we'd have a truly weird result -- hello.

as for tonight..

FACT: Crono is stronger than Zack, likely by a good amount.

FACT: Samus overlaps with Mario more than Mega Man X does.

FACT: Zack only lost by some 2000 votes last round.

Mario's screwed here unless something weird happens. in fact, I could see Samus beating Mario before I could see Mario beating Crono. he's just in an impossible spot, and he overlaps with Link more than Samus does. I wouldn't be too surprised if that happened. if you want to think big, there's the possibility of Crono beating Link. we'll probably have that happen for a while at the beginning of the poll thanks to anti-favourite voting + Crono's huge board vote. it sucks that Crono needs two dudes to beat Mario, but it's absolutely going to happen.

transience's prediction:

Link with 37.55%
Crono with 30.32%
Mario with 17.45%
Samus with 14.68%

Ngamer's Analysis

The other day I called Pikachu > L-Block the most pleased I've been with any result in many years. Well, I stick to that, but Kirby > Sonic is making the Hall of Fame also, as the most hilarious result in a long long while! I wasn't able to check the poll until 15 minutes in, once Lesnar/Couture was over, but my reaction was just to go "what the heck?" ...and then start cracking up. Stat's reactions only made it more funny! I still don't understand how this is possible, but oh well; it sets us up for what could be entirely really absurd result between a weakened Cloud/Seph, a Snake weakened by splitting Brawl, and a Kirby who will once again stand way way out against three mature PSX stars. Oh boy!

Now it's time to renew the greatest rivalry in Contest history: Mario vs Crono V, here we go! But is there any chance of this being another classic? Let's review.

X-Stats from Round Four
Link - 55.28% (based on Zack = Auron)
Mario - 35.87% (based on Zack = Auron)
Samus - 36.30% (based on '07 Pikachu)
Crono - 31.50% (based on '07 Pikachu)

Pretty good set of stats. I don't buy Zack being at Auron's level in this or any format, but he WAS being helped along by triple Nintendo LFF, so that value should be about reasonable. 2008 Pikachu was probably stronger than last year, but he was help back by Samus somewhat and may also have been hurt by having to deal with two other RPG characters, so again, it's probably a decent enough value there. Looks like Crono's a pretty big underdog... but wait!

LFF to the rescue? Crono had better hope so- I'd pick Mario over him 1v1, and in a 4 way... heck, I think I'd even take Mario over him with Link in the match! (Considering how MMX couldn't keep up, and he's probably not much below MM, and Crono should be right at MM's level in this format.) But with Samus being in the mix as well, I don't see any way for Crono to lose this. I mean in terms of fanbases we're basically talking about LttP v SMW v Super Metroid v Chrono Trigger, and could you see any way that CT loses there? No way, and that makes me think Crono will win over those old school voters handily enough to do what Zack couldn't and pull ahead of the Nintendo competition to advance.

So if Crono advances by a percent or two to bring the all-time rivalry to 3-2, what happens between Mario and Samus? Ehhh, I think Mario still edges that one out without too much trouble, but I'd be shocked if he beats her anything like he did in '05. Samus was in a much worse position last year (with Cloud/Seph there as well), yet held up admirably against Link. I think she improves on that showing by a touch, which MIGHT be enough to give her a shot on Mario... but probably not.

And how does all this crazy Nintendo/SNES LFF leave Link looking? Probably not too good, I'm thinking. I realize he's the King of SFF and all that, but we've already seen Zack gash him for respectable percentages time and again, and Crono should be able to improve on those showings without trouble. Beyond that, I don't know... I just get the feeling that with all this wacky SFF flying around, something weird is bound to happen, and what could be weirder than both Mario AND Samus holding up well against him?

Alright, so yeah, feel pretty confident in saying Link > Crono > Mario > Samus, but my gut is telling me that something really strange is going to happen in terms of how the percentages fall out. Let's take a stab with... *smokes, pots, stirs, and hands out*

Link - 38.11%
Crono - 23.01%
Mario - 20.58%
Samus Aran - 18.30%

That looks... pretty odd indeed. Come on Samus, don't collapse!

Ngamer Says: Link > Crono

Guest's Analysis - KleenexTissue

After almost two months of waiting, the Crono > Vincent hype train finally arrived, albeit somewhat dubiously, but now we have the setup for another great match here. It's been 3 years since we've seen a Mario/Crono match, something that used to be a staple of these contests. The odds here are heavily stacked against Mario's favor though, and Crono looks primed to bring the record to 3-2 here.

This match pretty much has the highest concentration of Nintendo you'll ever see. Link, Mario and Samus are the three strongest N guys in these things and they're all in the same match with each other. So what happens when these three juggernauts meet up? Link kills them. We've seen this to some effect in the Battle Royale back in 2k6 where Mario and Samus got absolutely massacred. Granted, Crono doesn't have the strength of Cloud, Sephiroth and Snake combined (if only!), but he really shouldn't need that. In fact, we pretty much saw this match last round with Link/Zack/Mario/MMX. Crono's good deal stronger than Zack, and Zack managed to come within 1700 votes of beating Mario. That's pretty nuts.

There's two ways Mario can come out of this match in tact. Either Samus has to affect Mario less than MMX did (don't see this happening), or Link has to SFF Crono enough to make up for the strength discrepancy between him and Zack (after seeing how Crono did without Link in the poll compared to last year, I don't see this happening either). This should be Crono's match to lose, but he's lost those before so who knows.

Kleenex's Prediction
Link - 40.03%
Mario - 22.71%
Samus Aran - 12.74%
Crono - 24.52%

Crew Consensus: Link > Crono, but will Mario make a match out of this?

DpObliVion | Posted 11/16/2008 10:28:39 PM | message detail | #107 | filter

DpOblivion's Completely Apathetic Unofficial Analysis:

**** you, contest.

Dp's bracket says: Link > Vincent

Dp's prediction is: Link > Anyone but Crono, because no matter what I predict, it's always wrong.

Link - 38%
Crono - 23%
Mario - 20%
Samus - 19%

I hate everything.

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/16/2008 10:43:39 PM | message detail | #108 | filter

War13104 UPSET SPECIAL!

Let's do this.

Crono: 35.35%
Link: 34.25%
Mario: 18.30%
Samus: 12.10%
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~War~ The Cream of Transexual Ex Girlfriend Fanboyism ~War~

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/16/2008 10:44:12 PM | message detail | #109 | filter

i like the way this war fellow thinks
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CB7 Score: 376/480
http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg

red sox 777 | Posted 11/16/2008 10:44:44 PM | message detail | #110 | filter

Crono: 35.35%
Link: 34.25%
Mario: 18.30%
Samus: 12.10%

This would be incredibly awesome. Crono to rSFF Link for the win!
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
Link vs. Crono vs. Mario vs. Samus

ZFS | Posted 11/16/2008 10:45:00 PM | message detail | #111 | filter

bad upset alert

if mario can't win, link needs to push 50% here

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http://i33.tinypic.com/2s0xn3o.gif

WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/16/2008 10:46:17 PM | message detail | #112 | filter

By the way, if that happens, I get the finals, understand?
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~War~ The Cream of Transexual Ex Girlfriend Fanboyism ~War~

Karma Hunter | Posted 11/16/2008 10:47:25 PM | message detail | #113 | filter

I'm surprised Crono beating Link (or at least giving him a fight) hasn't been tossed around more. I guess it's because the lesser mute's weakened so much... still, I could definitely have seen this going his way in 2004.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in

Gaddswell | Posted 11/16/2008 10:48:23 PM | message detail | #114 | filter

Dp's Analysis is my favorite today! >_<
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http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaGWrPcjb8

WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/16/2008 10:48:38 PM | message detail | #115 | filter

That's because they realize that if Crono > Link happens, neither Link nor Cloud will place in the finals, KH.
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~War~ The Cream of Transexual Ex Girlfriend Fanboyism ~War~

ZFS | Posted 11/16/2008 10:49:58 PM | message detail | #116 | filter

more because it's a crazy idea to think Crono is even gonna be all that close to Link here !

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http://i33.tinypic.com/2s0xn3o.gif

meisnewbie | Posted 11/16/2008 10:51:02 PM | message detail | #117 | filter

why are you never online you know who
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Eh? You Serious? Easy Mode? How Disgusting!
Only Elementary School Kids should play on Easy Mode.

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/16/2008 10:51:59 PM | message detail | #118 | filter

hey guys sonic should get second today, dante might come close but it's crazy to think kirby will

hey guys ocelot beat jill last year and had MGS4 since there's no way he loses to jill

hey guys pikachu's not gonna beat l-block if ryu couldn't
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CB7 Score: 376/480
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg

ZFS | Posted 11/16/2008 10:53:05 PM | message detail | #119 | filter

is that a crono fanboy i see time to lose to the real hero of time

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http://i33.tinypic.com/2s0xn3o.gif

WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/16/2008 10:53:15 PM | message detail | #120 | filter

Kleenex, DO YOU BELIEVE?

If so, change your prediction to mine, imho.
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~War~ The Cream of Transexual Ex Girlfriend Fanboyism ~War~

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/16/2008 10:53:56 PM | message detail | #121 | filter

Oh I don't think it'll happen, but there's no way I'm counting anything out anymore.
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CB7 Score: 376/480
http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/Saturn.gif

Kirby........................23.1% 31357
Dante.......................16.9% 22947
Sephiroth..................38.5% 52270
Sonic the Hedgehog...21.5% 29182
TOTAL VOTES....................135756

What Happened - It was a bit of a surprise to see Kirby ahead of Sonic early. It was even more of a surprise to see Kirby hold that lead and build it throughout the match. So now he advances with Sephiroth into the Semifinals.

Why it Happened - Uh...no clue. Seriously, this is one of the strangest results ever. At an attempt for an explanation, I'll say Sonic's non-hardcore fanbase completely abandoned him. Casual voters went to Seph (or Dante) and Nintendo voters (another big chunk of Sonic's support) went to Kirby.

As for why Dante looks bad...Sephiroth probably hurt him...but then Seph doesn't look great here as Kirby did too well on him...but that could have been an overperformance due to...augh I give up.

What Will Happen - Cloud/Snake/Seph/Kirby...this has fun potential.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay no one (except Lopen)!

Yoblazer - 39
HM - 37
Ngamer - 37
Moltar - 36
Tran - 34
Guest - 31
Lopen - 30

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Yo gets the point for Seph, Lopen gets the point for Sonic and Kirby, and Tran gets the point for Dante

Yoblazer - 54
HM - 44
Moltar - 42
Ngamer - 42
Tran - 33
Guest (War (5), KP (2), Dp (2), Justin (2), greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai (3), Klennex (2), Luis (2), Scott, Soul (2), Leon (3), Ed, Luster (3), Zylo) - 33
Lopen - 27
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hmm
well then

ZFS | Posted 11/17/2008 7:05:37 PM | message detail | #123 | filter

Yoblazer - 39
HM - 37

Yoblazer - 54
HM - 44

damn you yo

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http://i33.tinypic.com/2s0xn3o.gif

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/17/2008 8:29:46 PM | message detail | #124 | filter

My pick for tonight may pull you closer!
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

Moltar's Analysis

woo kirby!

As much as I loved the Kirby upset last round and would love to see him advance again, it isn't looking good. Not only is Seph back, but now Cloud and Snake are thrown into the mix. Kirby only beat Sonic by 2% last round, and all these guys would destroy Sonic. Kirby's only hope is to once again stand out, but with the level of competition here...it's hard to say. Still, I think he'll beat out Sephiroth (dude almost got doubled against Cloud last year)

Now it's Snake time! We've seen the damage fanbase splits do in this format, and Cloud/Sephiroth is a big one indeed. Snake shouldn't have much of a problem beating up Seph, and may even get very close to Cloud (closer the better c'mon gamefaqs) because of the FF7 split.

Cloud - 33% :: Snake - 29% :: Kirby - 20% :: Sephiroth - 18%

HM's Analysis

Which of these does not belong.

Kirby's had a crazy run this year. He gets destroyed by Big Boss in round 1, manages to pull out a win in round 2 due to assumed SFF, does it again in round 3, and then beats a Noble Niner last round - there's probably not a better run in this contest than Kirby. It's gotten to the point that some people believe he stands a shot at advancing today - or for the especially crazy among us, that he stands a chance at first.

As entertaining as it would be to happen, we're not going to see it anything like that. He'll have a shot at taking third from Sephiroth, but not much more. Yeah, Kirby stands out today in the same way he stood out in round 3, and he did beat Sonic, but let's put things into perspective here - he's up agains the second, third, and likely fourth strongest characters in the contest. Taking advantage of standing out against Dante/Leon/Chief is one thing; it's another to do it against this group. And beating Sonic? It was by 2% - impressive considering, but nowhere near enough to hang with this group.

The bigger match here is Cloud/Snake. Most people thought there was an outside shot at best of it happening, but after how Snake held up to Cloud last round, and accounting for FFVII SFF here, there's a decent chance that Snake could pull off the upset. But I can't see it happening. If Cloud needs to, he'll get what he needs on Sephiroth to hold onto the lead. And despite Snake's increased strength, it's clear that he's nowhere near Cloud's level. And for whatever it's worth, Kirby's here to potentially sap away some of Snake's Brawl support - likely to be an even bigger detriment than Sonic would have been given Kirby's popularity within the Smash fanbase.

Snake will get close, but I doubt he pulls it off.

Prediction: Cloud - 32% ; Snake - 30% ; Sephiroth - 20% ; Kirby - 18%

Yoblazer's Analysis

Let's just ****ing do it.

Frustrated, degraded, down before you're done
Rejection, depression, can't get what you want
You ask me how I make my way
You ask me everywhere and why
You hang on every word I say
But the truth sounds like a lie

Live to win, 'till you die, 'till the light dies in your eyes
Live to win, take it all, just keep fighting till you fall

Obsessive, compulsive, suffocate your mind
Confusion, delusions, kill your dreams in time
You ask me how I took the pain
Crawled up from my lowest low
Step by step and day by day
'Till there's one last breath to go

Live to win, 'till you die, 'till the light dies in your eyes
Live to win, take it all, just keep fighting till you fall

Day by day, kickin' all the way, I'm not cavin' in
Let another round begin, live to win
Yeah, live, yeah, win

Llive to win, 'till you die, 'till the light dies in your eyes
Live to win, take it all, just keep fighting 'till you fall

Day by day, kickin' all the way, I'm not cavin' in
Let another round begin, live to win
Live to win
Live to win
YEAH
LIVE
YEAH
WIN

Cloud Strife - 30%
Solid Snake - 30% (WINNER)
Sephiroth - 20%
Kirby - 20%

Lopen's Analysis

Well, here it is, the day where something really crazy is gonna go down. Check your Cloud > Snake cookie pick out at the door, and let's fire up the upset hype machine.

Now the first thing we need to throw into the mix is this beauty.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/43

This... well, people cite this as doomsday to Sephiroth, but I think that's being far too conservative. Look at what Link got on all of these schmucks here. First of all, he got 64.3% on Cloud. What does that mean for us today? That means Cloud was basically on the level of one of the lower noble nine, all because of Sephiroth's destructive influence. But why limit this to Cloud? He got 71.9% on Solid Snake... that puts Snake below the level of some elites... hell, even Kirby.

FF7/MGS SFF is something we've seen signs of time and time again. In the games contest, FF7 made MGS look like a joke. In the villains contest, Liquid was embarassed by Sephiroth. And of course, the poll I just referenced... Snake beat Sephiroth, but just look at how beastly Link was there... even by Link standards. And today, I think it comes to fruition in a big way. I had Master Chief winning this here... but you know, it wasn't entirely or even mostly rooted in the fact that I thought he was a beast. It was the fact that I think any remotely capable entrant that has little reason to overlap with these three could lay waste to this pack.

Enter Kirby, who'll stick out even worse than Link did. What we have here is badass, badass, badass, and dum pink ball. Two of said badasses being from the same game... the third being from a series that has shown signs of being closely tied to the game in question, as I've already gone over. People will have Kirby's ceiling being what he got yesterday: big mistake. Dante and Sonic both bring in more variety than these three guys do. Granted, Snake and Cloud are stronger than Sonic and Dante by a good margin... but it simply won't matter. These three are simply incapable of drawing enough of the vote against any clearly distinguished fourth party of reasonable strength. I'd have called Master Chief to do this, I'd have called Sonic to do this, and I'm calling Kirby to do this. We've seen that his fanbase is hard to break.. he went down way less than he should've each round given the strength change of his enemies. And although it's counter intuitive to call for him to come closer to what he got against Dante/Leon/MC than Sonic/Seph/Dante, I think the overlap is just that much more damaging in this match.

Upset of the history, RIGHT HERE, TONIGHT! Armed with the powers of three of his victims... GAME FUEL, Naked Cartwheels, Snake Proxy. And armed with the quotes of three more of his victims, in the adorable Kirby voice.

"Sephiroth... you're too slow!", "Cloud, you're small time!", "I've never seen a talking Snake before... you know, in a snake show, you'd definitely take first place!"

Oh yes, Kirby, make us proud.

Lopen's prediction:
Kirby - 28.07%
Cloud Strife - 26.33%
Solid Snake - 25.40%
Sephiroth - 20.20%

Transience's Analysis

two more matches until this thing is over. time to play "who doesn't belong"!

Link, Samus, Mario, Crono, Cloud, Sephiroth, Solid Snake... Kirby?

there's this weird pink blob in the room here and after it upended Sonic, I really have no idea how to treat it. here you've got three "serious" characters and then a bright, cute blob that will sop up all of Nintendo's support. is it going to win? well, no. but I think it could completely confuse everyone and top Sephiroth here. SFF'd Sephiroth is not going to do well.

Cloud beat Snake by 9% last round. how much does Sephiroth weigh down Cloud?

Cloud Strife 23.7% 32131
Link 42.68% 57860
Sephiroth 16.79% 22754
Solid Snake 16.83% 22810
TOTAL VOTES 135555

Cloud Strife 35.71% 54057
Link 44.65% 67579
Solid Snake 19.64% 29733
TOTAL VOTES 151369

quite a lot, it seems. Cloud received something like 75% of Sephiroth's votes when he was eliminated and jumped from 24% to 36%. this is obviously not the same Snake that we saw in 2006... does he have a chance to top Cloud?

I say yes, he does. the beginning of this poll is going to be hilarious -- Snake and Kirby in first and second, maybe, even if only for a couple of seconds in Kirby's case. from there, we're going to see Cloud trying to catch Snake. I think Cloud will catch up, but Snake winning is far from impossible. Snake probably had a better shot at it if Sonic were here, though - Kirby might nerf Snake's Brawl support in ways that Sonic couldn't. who knows, really. these SFF matches are dumb (and the norm instead of the exception -- damn you Square/Nintendo-obsessed GameFAQs)

transience's prediction:

Cloud Strife with 33.31%
Solid Snake with 32.56%
Kirby with 17.65%
Sephiroth with 16.48%

Ngamer's Analysis

Aww, Mario/Crono V didn't turn into the new classic we'd been hoping to see. Ah well, there's still next year. Galaxy and Brawl will be further from people's memories, and if CT:DS is as big as hit as it ought to be... alright, so I still wouldn't be backing Crono, but at least he'd have a shot at keeping it interesting IMO. Samus was SFFed down a touch harder than I thought and Link is going to overperform my expectations by a quarter point or so, but other than that things went more or less according to plan; odd, I was sure that much LFF would churn out something wacky!

Speaking of which, time for another match featuring Captain Wacky himself- Kirby! Will The Little Puffball That Could be sending his fans home happy once again? Let's see what the stats say.

X-Stats from Round Four:
Cloud - 54.10% (based on '07 Mewtwo)
Snake - 45.26% (based on '07 Mewtwo)
Sephiroth - 55.11% (based on '07 Sonic)
Kirby - 38.70% (based on '07 Sonic)

For the third round in a row I say, Kirby you beast! Like the last two times though, you have to call this result very much into question. No one seems to know what in the world happened to Sonic, but however you explain that he was clearly nowhere near his 2007 level of strength and so Seph and Kirby both need to come down about three notches. The Mewtwo values are surely closer to legit, though even there I hesitate to put too much faith in a guy who went from Chump to Champ and back to Chump again in three straight matches.

Even lowering Kirby to 35%ish looks absurd, I'll admit. But then again, consider the competition- he's once again getting the ultimate in Sore Thumb treatment, standing out big time as the lone cutesy/cartoony bright pink ball of Nintendo against three very grey/drab realistic mature Sony stars. And two of them share the same game! And if there's anything to those persisting rumors of "FF7/MGS SFF", Kirbs could even be considered the outright favorite! Right? Sooo... why am I not backing the upset? Two things: Snake's newfound Nintendo support post-trailer, and the beating Big Boss laid down on Kirby back in R1. The only justification I've been able to make for that crazy result was that because the casual Brawl totem pole goes Snake > Kirby > Lucas, that's the way the poll ended up playing out. That being the case, nothing's going to save Kirby here... still, no shame in third place!

One upset shot down- time to back the other! After all, Snake stayed within 9% of Cloud in a fair match last round, so once Seph is thrown into the mix FF7 will surely be weakened enough that Solid's hardcore fanbase will be able to push him into a first place finish. Right? Uh... hate to say it, but I'm going to have to back down from this upset as well, badly as I'd like to see it. Yes, Seph's going to bring Cloud down to his level, but now I can't help but see this surprisingly resilient Kirby likewise throw some LFF around, and all it would take is a Brawl-style 1 or 2 percent and the upset hopes would be dashed. So great work in getting here Kirbs, but I fear you may have doomed Snake in the process!

As for Kirby/Seph, eh... give me Kirby. Anything could happen there really, but with the way that guy has been swallowing opponents left and right it just doesn't seem wise to bet against him.

Cloud >~ Snake >> Kirby =~ Seph. Sounds like an Instant Classic! I'll give it a classic scoring of *stirs and pots and stirs some more*

Cloud Strife with 30.74%
Solid Snake with 29.39%
Kirby with 20.14%
Sephiroth with 19.73%

That looks... mighty tasty! But come on Snake, pull it out!

Crew Consensus: Cloud > Snake is the majority, but there's the possibility for all sorts of crazy!

trannyscience | Posted 11/17/2008 10:23:08 PM | message detail | #129 | filter

okay someone kick Lopen out of the Crew
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xyzzy
http://isobamapresident.com/

DpObliVion | Posted 11/17/2008 10:24:43 PM | message detail | #130 | filter

Die, Lopen.

DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

Cloud is probably too strong even with Sephiroth to beat Snake, but it could be close. Meh....still hate the contest, this is all I'm giving.

Dp's bracket says: Cloud > Snake

Dp's prediction is: Cloud > Snake

Cloud - 35.30%
Snake - 27.30%
Sephiroth - 19.30%
Kirby - 18.10%

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

ZFS | Posted 11/17/2008 10:27:09 PM | message detail | #131 | filter

Haha Lopen what

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http://i33.tinypic.com/2s0xn3o.gif

th3l3fty | Posted 11/17/2008 10:31:00 PM | message detail | #132 | filter

I accept responsibility for lopen's actions
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris

Lopen | Posted 11/17/2008 10:33:20 PM | message detail | #133 | filter

What, you thought my sig was just hype? Kirby is there to finish the fight for Master Chief. Like last round of Kirby doubt, I shall have the last laugh...!

... the argument is valid, dammit! Read the analysis not just the percentages !!

(I can't believe none of you had the stones to even take Snake > Cloud jeez.)
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 5 - The big cheese himself
Target: 48% Gained Crazy Party and "You're Too Slow!" ability. Spikey goin down!

satai_delenn | Posted 11/17/2008 10:33:31 PM | message detail | #134 | filter

Lopen, you're as much of a nutcase as my oracle partner...!

No guest? Man. I'd have taken the Snake > Cloud upset here. I like Cloud better, but the opportunity seems so ripe. If it's going to happen at all, it'll happen now. Let's go, Snake!
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Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE!

KamikazePotato | Posted 11/17/2008 10:39:57 PM | message detail | #135 | filter

Lopen, as long as you are around my KP 'Upset' Specials that I totally didn't copy from you will look sane by comparison. One of us must die

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10

Ngamer64 | Posted 11/17/2008 10:41:20 PM | message detail | #136 | filter

Hey, stop insulting us, yo took the Snake upset!

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Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/
Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/17/2008 10:42:18 PM | message detail | #137 | filter

I pick Snake to win, post song lyrics (the same ones I posted for my analysis when he beat Mega Man in 2006), give Snake and Cloud identical percentages signifying a match for the ages, and everyone's talking about Lopen because of stupid Kirby. What the heck man you didn't see me picking Jill > Sephiroth
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

KamikazePotato | Posted 11/17/2008 10:43:06 PM | message detail | #138 | filter

Well you should've!

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10

Lopen | Posted 11/17/2008 10:46:14 PM | message detail | #139 | filter

Pfft, Yo, you couldn't even give Snake +0.01 percent and listed Cloud first I thought that was just a moral victory thing!
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 5 - The big cheese himself
Target: 48% Gained Crazy Party and "You're Too Slow!" ability. Spikey goin down!

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/17/2008 10:47:57 PM | message detail | #140 | filter

I've long since been too stubborn to abandon the concept of whole numbers!
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

th3l3fty | Posted 11/17/2008 10:50:25 PM | message detail | #141 | filter

your whole numbers are wholly boring
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris

KamikazePotato | Posted 11/17/2008 10:56:05 PM | message detail | #142 | filter

If I ever ended up on the Crew, I would make myself score negative points in every match by predicting characters to move on while still getting a lower % than the other characters.

It's possible now that I said it, yes.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10

Gaddswell | Posted 11/17/2008 11:21:28 PM | message detail | #143 | filter

Well Lopes, at least Kirby has a chance right now!
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http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaGWrPcjb8

RaeSaraneth | Posted 11/17/2008 11:45:31 PM | message detail | #144 | filter

Hey, at least Lopen's upset is partially valid right now :D
Kirby and Snake are beating Cloud, at the moment, and I would be terribly excited if it kept that way
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^_^

Lopen | Posted 11/18/2008 1:26:31 AM | message detail | #145 | filter

Eh. Well... it was worth a shot. At least I didn't look like a TOTAL idiot here. If Cloud/Seph had more normal proportions this would've totally worked.

C'mon Kirby make me proud with the day vote...!
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 5 - The big cheese himself
Target: 48% Gained Crazy Party and "You're Too Slow!" ability. Spikey goin down!

Link..................38.45% 50315
Mario................19.56% 25594
Samus Aran....16.71% 21871
Crono................25.28% 33087
TOTAL VOTES.............130867

What Happened - Nothing surprising here. Crono does what Zack failed to do and advances thanks to a 3-way Nintendo split.

Why it Happened - Like we saw last round, Link dominates all Nintendo. Mario and Samus had no chance.

What Will Happen - Crono in the finals well then

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay everyone (except HM)!

Yoblazer - 40
Ngamer - 38
Moltar - 37
HM - 37
Tran - 35
Guest - 32
Lopen - 31

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Ngamer gets the point for Link, HM gets the point for Crono, Moltar and Yo get points for Mario, and Lopen gets the point for Samus

Yoblazer - 55
HM - 45
Moltar - 43
Ngamer - 43
Tran - 33
Guest (War (5), KP (2), Dp (2), Justin (2), greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai (3), Klennex (2), Luis (2), Scott, Soul (2), Leon (3), Ed, Luster (3), Zylo) - 33
Lopen - 28
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Moltar Status: augh
Cloud/Snake/Seph/Kirby - Bracket: who cares go snake

Since the finals are tonight, I'll be posting the write-ups in a little less than 30 minutes.
---
Moltar Status: augh
Cloud/Snake/Seph/Kirby - Bracket: who cares go snake

Finals: Round 6 - Match 63 – Link vs. Crono vs. Solid Snake vs. Cloud Strife

Moltar’s Analysis

Link
Round 1 - 60.72% vs. Zidane, Shadow and Luke
Round 2 - 53.34% vs. Zack, Zidane and Wario
Round 3 - 51.52% vs. Zack, Duke and Altair
Round 4 - 40.28% vs. Mario, Zack and Mega Man X
Round 5 - 38.45% vs. Crono, Mario and Samus

Things are just easy for him.

Crono
Round 1 - 49.22% vs. Amaterasu, Frank and Kaim
Round 2 - 32.09% vs. L-Block, Ryu and Amaterasu
Round 3 - 31.16% vs. Pikachu, L-Block and Alucard
Round 4 - 25.31% vs. Samus, Vincent and Pikachu
Round 5 - 25.28% vs. Link, Mario and Samus

Oh Crono…how did you get here?

Snake
Round 1 - 51.60% vs. Vivi, Wesker and Sackboy
Round 2 - 43.55% vs. Zero, Vivi and Ryu
Round 3 - 37.59% vs. Cube, Mega Man and Zero
Round 4 - 29.14% vs. Cloud, Cube and Mewtwo
Round 5 - 30.70% vs. Cloud, Kirby and Sephiroth

BrawlGS4 baby

Cloud
Round 1 - 59.80% vs. Midna, Miles and Axel
Round 2 - 53.49% vs. Mewtwo, Midna and Pac-Man
Round 3 - 44.72% vs. Mewtwo, Squall and Sora
Round 4 - 38.41% vs. Solid Snake, Cube and Mewtwo
Round 5 - 30.50% vs. Solid Snake, Kirby and Sephiroth

what a loser

*Moltar runs into the Analysis Crew building and heads up to the offices*

Moltar: Hey guys, my laptop is finally fixed!

Yoblazer: That’s great, but…uh…the contest is over.

Transience: ‘whoops’

Moltar: But…

Ngamer: It’s alright, buddy. There’s always next year!

*everyone starts leaving with their stuff*

Moltar: Wait! The contest doesn’t HAVE to end here.

*everyone stops and turns around*

Lopen: Whatchu talkin’ bout Moltar

Moltar: Follow me boys.

*Moltar leads the other members of the Analysis Crew down a dark hallway*

HM: This isn’t going to be another ‘Crew Initiation Party’ is it?

Moltar: No, it’s even better. *opens the door at the end of the hallway*

Everyone: Woah!

*They enter the room, which contains a large portal.*

Moltar: I just had this installed yesterday. This will allow us to go back in time so I can analyze the matches I missed while my laptop was gone!

Yoblazer: This sounds like a terrible idea and I want no part of it.

Moltar: Too bad! *shoves Yo in the portal* Now remember guys, let’s try to NOT change the results of the matches that already happened.

Everyone: Okay!

*weeeeeeeeeeeeee portal*

*Moltar and Yoblazer wake up*

Yoblazer: So where did we end up?

*Just then, Pikachu rushes past them. A short distance ahead, Crono, L-Block, Pikachu and Alucard are fighting*

Moltar: Ooh, this match! Time to analyze it. Crono takes first because he beat L-Block last round and L-Block…Yo what are you doing?

Yoblazer: *walks closer to the battle* I…can’t believe it’s you…L-Block! I’m such a huge fan! Can I have your autograph?

*L-Block descends towards Yoblazer. From below, Pikachu runs up and uses Thunder, sending Pikachu flying away*

Yoblazer: L-Block NO! MY BRACKET DEPENDS ON YOU!

Moltar: Yo, what have you done man? You just changed the contest up big time! Screw this, I’m going to another match.

*enters back into portal, while Yoblazer mourns the loss of the block and his bracket*

Moltar: Okay so where am I now.

Ngamer: Hey Moltar! Come here! Cloud, Mewtwo, Squall and Sora are fighting.

Moltar: Oh yeah, this match. Well, Cloud takes first because he’s the strongest by far. And Sora has a great shot at second with Mewtwo sucking it up last round. Squall gets SFFed into oblivion.

Ngamer: Yeah…but Mewtwo killed Ness, Pac-Man and Travis. I mean, that’s a tough trio, and Mewtwo beat them…I think he has a shot at Cloud here.

Sora: Okay, that’s just dumb. For one, they are nowhe- *gets hit by a psychic blast from the back*

Moltar: Ngamer! You distracted Sora! Now Mewtwo is going to advance once Cloud *sound of Squall screaming in pain*…beats Squall.

Ngamer: Whoops! Sorry Moltar!

*Moltar goes back in portal*

Moltar: Alright, no more screwing up.

Lopen: Go go Master Chief!

Moltar: Ahh, Master Chief’s Round 3 match. Well, Kirby should take first here because he stands out like crazy. MC/Dante should be close. And Leon’s a wildcard too.

Lopen: Hey Chief, need a boost? I brought some GAME FUEL!

Moltar: Lopen! No!

*Lopen tosses Chief the GAME FUEL, but Dante intercepts it*

Lopen: No! Bad Dante! That’s Chief’s GAME FUEL. Now I only love you with 99% of my heart!

*Dante drinks the GAME FUEL and beats Chief*

Moltar: augh lopen

*heads back into portal*

Moltar: Okay nothing can go wrong here. This match will go exactly as planned for me. Nothing, and I mean NOTHING will make this match go wrong.

Transience: Hey Moltar, it’s Vincent and Crono fighting! Samus already crushed Pikachu, but the battle for second is close.

*Vincent attacks Crono, sending him to the ground*

Transience: With one minute to go, it looks like Vincent is going to win. It looks like a lock at this point.

Moltar: Tran! What the hell man!? Did you just…call the match?

Transience: Oh c’mon Moltar, that’s just a Stats Topic myth. Nothing is going to-

*Just then, a light from the heavens beams down upon Crono. It raises his body from the ground and he attacks Vincent, defeating him*

Transience: ‘well then’

Moltar: darn you

*heads back into portal*

Moltar: Okay this should be easy. Sephiroth/Sonic/Kirby/Dante. Seph beats Sonic because it makes sense and-

HM: Moltar! Hey, I just want to tell you that I haven’t touched anything here and have not changed a single thing. Everything you see here is exactly how it was when I got here. I can guarantee that.

Moltar: ….You did something to put Kirby in second, didn’t you?

HM: HAHA! Now Moltar! Why would you say that!

Moltar: *sees Sephiroth and Kirby walk past Sonic’s body on the ground* …

HM: ‘well then’

Moltar: That’s it.

*Moltar enters the portal and returns to the building, bringing back the other members of the Crew.*

Moltar: I can’t believe it. Because of you guys, the contest is now completely changed! All I wanted to do was properly analyze the matches that I couldn’t, and look what happens! What do you have to say for yourselves?

Everyone: …

HM: ‘oops’

Moltar: augh

*Everyone leaves the building for the night. As they leave, a random Guest runs up to them.*

Guest: Guys…you won’t believe it…but Snake is going to beat Cloud in the semi-finals!

Everyone: ………………YES

~*End*~

Anyway, while Cloud is gunning to take first place over Snake, we still have one more match to worry about that goes up in a couple hours. Snake and Cloud are going to advance, no matter who takes first or second (go snake).

Link is going to have NO PROBLEM here. This should actually end up being one of his easiest wins in the final ever. Not only is he the only Nintendo here, but you can make a case for all his opponents hurting each other in some way. Crono/Cloud is…new and exciting, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Crono looks bad here with not only his old-school Nintendo, but also his Square support getting sapped.

With Snake, it’s taken a Sephiroth-hindered Cloud just to compete with him directly. With Seph gone next round, Snake doesn’t stand a chance, as sad as that sounds.

So Link > Cloud in the finals once again. The contest has returned to normal all rejoice for your new overlords (same as the old overlords).

*Rest of Contest Note coming soon*

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Link > Cloud

Moltar’s Prediction is: Link: 36% - Cloud: 29% - Snake: 22% - Crono: 13%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Final match of the contest. Woo let's do it

Like most finals, there's not going to be anything outside of the norm happening - Link is going to be absolutely wreck his competition and Cloud will take an easy second. To most people, third place will be more entertaining than the fight for first, but I doubt we see anything there either. Most of Snake's support will be sapped by Link, which will put him well behind Cloud, but he'll still be able to stay ahead of Crono, if only because of the gap between Snake and Crono normally. There's also a chance that we see some Cloud/Crono SFF - Crono has never gone up against Cloud or Sephiroth before, so we don't know how that will play out, though Crono will probably hold up better than any other Square character there.

The best part of this match will be Link, though - even in what is considered a down year for Nintendo, he'll still wreck Cloud. Comparing the two this year has been decidedly in Link's favor, and with no Nintendo characters holding him back (not that they seem to even bother him considering he outdid Mario and Samus combined in the semis and nearly hit 40% there), he'll have no problems today.

link winz; bring on the games contest

Prediction: Link - 40% ; Cloud - 30% ; Snake - 17% ; Crono - 13%

Yoblazer’s Analysis

Wow, another contest down. The 2008 Character Battle has had a few great moments, but all in all, the first 90% of the damn thing were pretty crappy. The past few days, on the other hand, have been golden. Crono showed flashes of the darkness that now shroud both Mario and Frog en route to a rally-fueled win over Vincent. Kirby defied every shred of logic en route to a win over Sonic. And now, Snake is fighting tooth and nail en route to a semifinal win over Cloud freakin' Strife. Barring a miracle, all these awesome examples of awesomeness will be way, way more exciting than our final.

I say this because unless Snake does the unthinkable and rides a tsunami of Internet support and format craziness, the final result is baked in the cake. Link will win, Cloud will finish second, Snake will finish third, and Crono will finish fourth. All there is to really analyze here are the margins, so let's do that (can't let the season close on that short a note!).

Link, the huge odds-on favorite, has been on a bloody rampage after suffering his second loss ever last year. He's looked vicious and I'm expecting a huge day from him. He's the strongest character in the quartet, he's the only Nintendo option, he'll rob Snake of nearly all of his new-found Nintendo support, and he'll blast Crono in the face for good measure. He's already stronger than Cloud, and he'll have the added advantage of less overlap with the weaker two opponents than Cloud does. There's been some talk of Link pushing 40% here, and while I don't think he's quite that fierce, I do expect him to come respectably close. He won't be challenged.

Another year as runner-up for Cloud. It's "always a bride's maid, only once a bride" for our beloved FFVII protagonist. Cloud shouldn't even come close to challenging Link, but he's still scary enough to manage a very strong second place. We'll all keep hoping for that remake, Clod!

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