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Character Battle VII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 4

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th3l3fty | Posted 11/13/2008 1:15:21 AM | message detail | #051 | filter

And now for Round 2 of the Consistency Ratings!

Match 33: Link > Zack
1st Place
+7 Ngamer
+6 Moltar
+5 Lopen
+4 HM
+3 tranny
+2 yo
+1 Guest

2nd Place
+7 tranny
+6 Moltar
+5 yo
+4 HM
+3 Ngamer
+2 Lopen
+0 Guest

Match 34: Duke Nukem > Altair
1st Place
+7 yo
+6 Ngamer
+5 tranny
+4 HM
+3 Lopen
+2 Moltar
+0 Guest

2nd Place
+7 yo
+6 tranny
+5 Moltar, HM
+3 Guest
+0 Lopen, Ngamer

Match 35: Liquid Snake > Luigi
1st Place
+7 Guest
+6 Lopen
+5 HM
+4 Ngamer
+0 Moltar, yo, tranny

2nd Place
+7 tranny
+6 Lopen
+5 Guest
+4 HM
+3 Ngamer
+2 Moltar, yo

Match 36: Mario > X
1st Place
+7 tranny
+6 Ngamer
+5 Lopen
+4 yo
+3 Moltar, Guest
+1 HM

2nd Place
+7 yo
+6 Lopen
+5 Moltar, HM
+3 Ngamer
+0 tranny, Guest

Match 37: Samus > Ganondorf
1st Place
+7 HM
+6 Guest
+5 yo
+4 tranny
+3 Moltar
+2 Ngamer
+1 Lopen

2nd Place
+7 Lopen
+6 yo
+5 Ngamer
+4 Guest
+3 Moltar
+2 HM
+1 tranny

Match 38: Vincent > Gordon
1st Place
+7 tranny
+6 Moltar, yo
+4 Lopen
+3 Ngamer
+2 HM
+1 Guest

2nd Place
+7 Guest
+6 Lopen
+0 Moltar, HM, yo, tranny, Ngamer

Match 39: Crono > L-Block
1st Place
+7 Guest
+6 HM
+5 tranny
+4 Moltar, yo
+2 Ngamer
+1 Lopen

2nd Place
+7 Guest
+6 HM
+5 Ngamer
+4 yo, Lopen
+2 tranny
+1 Moltar

Match 40: Pikachu > Alucard
1st Place
+7 Moltar
+6 Lopen
+5 tranny
+4 Guest
+3 Ngamer
+2 HM, yo

2nd Place
+7 Guest
+6 yo
+5 HM
+4 Moltar
+0 Lopen, tranny, Ngamer

Match 41: Mega Man > Cube
1st Place
+7 Moltar
+6 tranny
+5 Lopen
+4 Ngamer
+3 HM
+2 yo
+1 Guest

2nd Place
+7 yo
+6 tranny
+5 Moltar, HM
+3 Ngamer
+0 Lopen, Guest

Match 42: Snake > Zero
1st Place
+7 Guest
+6 HM, yo
+4 tranny
+3 Ngamer
+2 Moltar
+1 Lopen

2nd Place
+7 tranny
+6 Ngamer
+5 yo
+4 Moltar
+3 Lopen
+0 HM, Guest

Match 43: Squall > Sora
1st Place
+7 Ngamer
+6 Lopen
+5 Guest
+4 Moltar, yo
+2 tranny
+0 HM

2nd Place
+7 Guest
+0 Moltar, HM, yo, Lopen, tranny, Ngamer

Match 44: Cloud > Mewtwo
1st Place
+7 HM, Guest
+5 yo
+4 Ngamer
+3 Moltar
+2 tranny
+1 Lopen

2nd Place
+7 Ngamer
+6 Guest
+5 HM
+4 Lopen
+3 Moltar
+2 tranny
+1 yo

Match 45: Kirby > Master Chief
1st Place
+7 Ngamer
+6 Moltar
+5 HM, yo
+3 Lopen
+2 Guest

2nd Place
+7 Ngamer
+6 Guest
+5 Moltar, HM
+3 Lopen
+2 HM

Match 46: Dante > Leon
1st Place
+7 Moltar
+6 Ngamer
+5 HM
+4 Guest
+3 Lopen
+2 yo

2nd Place
+7 Moltar
+6 Ngamer
+5 Guest
+4 HM
+3 yo
+0 Lopen

Match 47: Auron > Sonic
1st Place
+7 Lopen
+6 Moltar, yo
+4 Guest
+3 Ngamer
+2 HM

2nd Place
+7 Ngamer
+6 Moltar, yo
+4 Lopen
+3 HM
+2 Guest

Match 48: Sephiroth > Kratos
1st Place
+7 tranny
+6 Moltar, yo
+4 Ngamer
+3 HM
+2 Lopen
+1 Guest

2nd Place
+7 yo
+6 Ngamer
+5 tranny
+4 HM
+3 Moltar
+2 Guest
+0 Lopen

th3l3fty | Posted 11/13/2008 1:15:31 AM | message detail | #052 | filter

Overall Rankings
1. yoblazer (410)
2. Master Moltar (387)
3. Ngamer (382)
4. transience (344)
4. Board 8 (344)
6. Heroic Mario (320)
7. Lopen (287)

Only movement here is Board 8 catching up to tranny (thanks to him missing three matches).

Luis_Sera89 | Posted 11/13/2008 2:45:55 AM | message detail | #053 | filter

I'll take Kirby/Dante/Seph/Sonic.
---
"Eet's game time..."

Auron...............................17.23% 23048
Sonic the Hedgehog........28.19% 37722
Sephiroth........................38.49% 51492
Kratos.............................16.09% 21528
TOTAL VOTES...........................133790

What Happened - Seph takes first easy, with Sonic in a distant second. Auron and Kratos, hurt by Seph, take the last two spots.

Why it Happened - Like Tifa, Auron was hit had by SFF + strong competition. Kratos tumbles a bit as well. Sonic, the one who stood out, holds up well from round to round because of that fact.

What Will Happen - Kirby/Dante/Seph/Sonic...looks kind of interesting, but I think the outcome isn't going to be surprising.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay everyone!

Yoblazer - 36
HM - 35
Ngamer - 34
Moltar - 34
Tran - 32
Guest - 29
Lopen - 26

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Tran gets the point for Seph, Molt gets the point for Sonic and Kratos, and Lopen gets the point for Auron

Yoblazer - 48
Moltar - 41
HM - 40
Ngamer - 39
Tran - 32
Guest (War (5), KP (2), Dp (2), Justin (2), greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai (3), Klennex, Luis (2), Scott, Soul (2), Leon (3), Ed, Luster (3), Zylo) - 32
Lopen - 25
---
hmm
well then

Moltar's Analysis

well it may take longer for me to get my laptop fix than I had anticipated. not good

Anyway, the more things change, the more they stay the same. This may be a new contest, and we may have some new faces, but we're still getting Vincent/Crono again.Who wins here? Well, I'll get to that in a minute.

First, about Samus and Pikachu. Some people have been saying that Pikachu may hurt Samus to the point of her being in trouble. I don't buy that at all. The rat struggled with Ike and Falcon, and last year Luigi was able to beat him. Pikachu may be weird, but he's not going to cripple Samus. She'll take first easy, and Pikachu will take last.

Now, as for Vincent and Crono...give me Vincent again. Not only has Vincent looked better, but Crono also struggled mightily last round. Plus, Samus is a old-school Nintendo icon, and Pikachu is another popular RPG character. Not that they'll matter, but the deck is once again stacked against Crono. Vincent beats him once again.

Samus - 33% :: Vincent - 26% :: Crono - 23% :: Pikachu - 18%

HM's Analysis

What a match. Nearly everyone who didn't have the Block here went with Ryu - who knew that Pikachu would manage to get to the quarterfinals over the Block? There's no telling what Pikachu's presence is going to do with this one. He could cause Samus to come in second, he could come in second, or he could just do nothing. My money's on the latter. I doubt he'll have any real affect on the outcome of today. He'll impress, but Samus > Crono/Vincent should still happen.

With Samus more or less guaranteed first place, this all comes down to the rematch between Crono and Vincent. There's not a whole lot of reason to think this match will turn the result we saw last year, with Vincent taking an easy win, but to Crono's credit, he has looked better this year - and he does have CTDS coming out in a couple of weeks, for whatever that may be worth. There's also a decent argument to be made that Link and Crono would overlap more than Vincent, and with Link out of the picture, Crono might do a bit better.

The problem for Crono is how good Vincent has looked this year. Comparing the two, it's hard not to think of Vincent as a bit more impressive - coming within 4% of Samus with Ganon getting hammered is hard to argue with. Between that and last year, I think Vincent should take today, though Crono should put up a good fight, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he managed to flip the result. There's a good argument to be made for him winning, but I'll play it safe with Vincent.

Prediction: Samus - 31% ; Vincent - 25% ; Crono - 24% ; Pikachu - 20%

Yoblazer's Analysis

With only six matches left to go, we've reached the one that may be our most interesting. Everyone is hyped for this Samus/Vincent/Crono/Pikachu showdown because of the hugely anticipated Crono/Vincent rematch, but I think there are a couple more points of interest worth following. As is the case with these Nintendo vs. Square matches, I'd like to analyze our competitors as teams while also picking them apart as individuals.

Let's start with Team Nintendo, Samus and Pikachu. Strangely enough, during the Vincent/Crono match last year, it can be argued that Link and Zero acted as sort of an unofficial "Team Nintendo" and scooped up 57.64% of the total vote. Obviously, Samus is no Link, but in this contest, in this damned format, in these circumstances, and after his last match, I have to consider Pikachu stronger than Zero. Not only that, but I think the rat will do a damned good job at resisting Samus's Nintendo SFF. Pikachu has shown to have a solid, surprisingly devoted fanbase this year, and he's also gotta be riding a high that only defeating last year's champion can bring. I have a hard time seeing the Nintendo fanbase abandoning him en masse for the infinitely superior Samus, and thus, I expect Pikachu to have a shot at an excellent 20%. Based on all these factors, and the fact that I believe Vincent and Crono WILL be enduring a fanbase split (I was actually surprised to hear some people didn't think this), I'm taking a risk and giving Team Nintendo a razor-thin majority of the total votes.

Now, onto the two guys we're all waiting to see. I'm allocating 51% of the total votes to the Nintendo guys, which means I think Vincent and Crono will be splitting a nice, uneven 49%. The big question, of course, is who will claim the majority of that? Things were so close between them last year that I wouldn't blame anyone for just picking their favorite without justifying it. Between Vinnie V. and Cornodog, I don't really have a personal favorite, so I guess I've actually gotta think. Dammit.

As I said, it was close last year. Really close. Vincent only won by about 1%. Based on the decent job that Frog and Crono (the hell...) have done this year, people have been pitching the idea of a small "Chrono Trigger boost." I don't buy it. The CT team has no reason to boost, and Crono's own matches have been, by any logical accord, either average or largely inconclusive. I also don't think Vincent has incurred any noticeable strength fluctuation since last year, which means I'm thinking both of them are heading into this match about as strong as they were last year. That being the case, Vincent probably is a slight favorite, and the biggest determining factor for Team Square suddenly becomes their competition.

Last year, it was Link and Zero. This year, it's Samus and Pikachu. For all intents and purposes, they are four Nintendo characters. Oh, Nintendo guys again, so Vincent's still looking good, right?! Maybe not. They may both be Nintendo, but Link and Samus have some stark differences. Link is a cool-looking swordsman who stars in arguably the most popular SNES game. Crono is... a cool-looking swordsman who stars in arguably the most popular SNES game. Link has broad, far-reaching SFF which has damaged many unlikely foes, of which Crono is one. Samus Aran is a badass bounty hunter who has enjoyed a second rush of popularity during console generations (Smash, Prime) that coincide more with Vincent's time than they do with Crono's. She relies at least partly on the badassness of her design, which I speculate is also the case for Vincent. She doesn't fight with a sword, but a gun! Same as Vincent! Man, separated at birth or what!

You guys get what the point I'm trying to convey here. No, I don't think Samus will hurt Vincent more than Crono, but I do think she'll hurt Crono noticeably less than Link did. When the opponents are this evenly matched, that alone could be enough to change the result. Give me Crono with a 1% redemption win.

In the reaches of spa*dodges brick*

Samus Aran - 31%
Vincent Valentine - 24%
Crono - 25%
Pikachu - 20%

Lopen's Analysis

I'd hate to half ass this big match, but I don't have much time and better something than nothing.

Well, actually, it also doesn't help that I don't really know what to say about this match. Crono vs Vincent was close last year, and I think it'll be close again. I went with Crono for second this time... the reason being that I think the advent of Samus's popularity came after the SNES... now OoT was the Zelda game, but I think Link was relatively more popular than Samus in the SNES era. Hence, I think Link hurt Crono more than Vincent, proportionally, and Samus will be more balanced. Add to this that I think Pikachu will be the same thing in comparison to Zero... Zero is SNES rooted, whereas Pokemon got big in the N64/PS era...Pikachu isn't as "old school" as Zero. Makes me a bit more confident than I was before (Ryu was in the same boat as Zero).

However... Pikachu. Pikachu Pikachu Pikachu. I don't know what he does to this match. I think he damages Samus quite a bit... I could see Crono > Vincent... I could also see Samus > Pika... Crono > Pika, the possibilities are endless.

Anyway, still think Crono is the most likely second, and Samus is the most likely first. With most of the crew going likely with Vincent there's no reason to shoot for an upset beyond an upset. I'm totally rooting for the contest hero Pikachu here, though.

Lopen's prediction:
Samus - 26.07%
Crono - 26.03%
Pikachu - 24.02%
Vincent - 23.88%

Transience's Analysis

this match is sure to be wonky in some way.

first of all, Crono and Vincent. my opinion: if you've got no reason other than random variation to pick Crono, it's a bad pick. now, it could totally work out, as random variation is enough to get him a win, but you *have* to look at Vincent as the favourite here. last year featured two SNES characters alongside Crono and Vincent - this time you've got one SNES character and another Nintendo on the GB. I don't see that as being much different, and Samus has the same silent protagonist appeal that Link did (and Crono does). I also don't see this CTDS hype being worth a damn, unless you're going to argue that Magus should have lost to Sandbag by even more. most of the Crono picks are based on favouritism rather than logic though, and that's fine. I want him to win too.

meanwhile, Pikachu is weird as hell.

I don't think I've ever seen a character as bizarre as Pikachu. I'm confident it'll finish last though - with Vivi and Tidus sharing the poll, Pikachu only won by like 4%. with Luigi in the poll, Pikachu came in last place; Luigi lost straight-up to Ganondorf when they were on even ground, and Samus just beat the hell out of Ganondorf. so yeah, Pikachu should be getting last here.

the question is how much damage does it do to Samus. I want to say a lot, because Pokemon is just unique and doesn't get SFFed like other stuff, but Samus resisted Ganondorf completely (or so it seemed) and seems like she'll be a safe pick for first here. if Crono and Vincent have NO overlap - something that makes zero sense to me - then maybe one of them could sneak into first, but that's so damn unlikely. pre-contest logic said Samus > Vincent, and I'm not seeing a reason to change from that now.

the interesting thing here is going to be the absolutely weird trends. Crono's going to jump out to a big lead on Vincent (and maybe even Samus); Pikachu's also going to be beating Vincent at first, probably. we could theoretically see Vincent come from fourth place to take first. whoa. lookin' forward to this one.

transience's prediction:

Samus with 33.47%
Vincent with 26.05%
Crono with 24.44%
Pikachu with 16.04%

Ngamer's Analysis

Sore Thumb Factor strikes again! As I was talking about yesterday, even though I acknowledged how being the only non-Nintendo option would be important for Zack, I downplayed its significance just because he doesn't LOOK like a sore thumb in the match pics. Kirby and Sonic literally stood out like fuzzy, puffy sore thumbs while Zack just looked like one of two cool dudes with swords. But I guess I was wrong, as has so often happened this season! It's looking like Mario has built himself a big enough ASV cushion to survive Zack's SNV without much trouble, but still, heck of a showing from this black-haired cloud, and it will be very interesting to see how he holds up when we switch back to 1v1s next year.

This sets us up for Link/Mario/Samus/Vincent. Wait, or do I mean Link/Mario/Samus/Crono? Let's look closer...

X-Stats from Round Three
Samus - 32.94% (based on '07 Gordon)
Vincent - 30.14% (based on '07 Gordon)
Crono - 32.97% (based on '07 Alucard)
Pikachu - 29.85% (based on '07 Alucard)

Oh my, we're in for a real slugfest just based on those numbers! However, it seemed fairly obvious that Gordon has had a nice boost since '07, so to keep those legit you'd have to push Sammy and Vince up at least a couple points... that puts Samus out of danger but fortunately moves VV directly into Crono's range. So here we go again!

As I'm sure everyone remembers, Crono jumped out to a very big lead on Vincent last season before giving it all back and then some to lose by 1.2%. Let's look at some pros and cons for Vincent here in '08:

+ beat Crono by 1.2% 13 months ago
- lost to Crono by 10% in a legit 1v1 back in '05

- won't have Link hurting Crono's Hero of Time/sword-wielding fanbase, or Zero hurting Crono's SNES fanbase
+ WILL have Samus hurting Crono's SNES base and Pikachu pulling some of his Nintendo fanbase

+ Pikachu came scarily close to Crono last around
- Vincent flopped big time last round, finishing 4.5% back of Samus despite her having to deal with Ganon

- Crono has flat out looked better than Vincent to this point in the season
+ Zack just showed us how dangerous FF7 can be against three characters with Nintendo appeal

...arg, can't decide! I was all set to back Crono for the upset, and with a decent bit of confidence, but then Pikachu shocked us by making it here and that swung my scale back into coin flip territory. I'm going to flip a coin and go with.... Crono, final answer! He just seems to be a touch stronger than last year, perhaps thanks to CTDS, and beyond that I expect Samus to limit the damage Vincent does to him thanks to her strong morning vote, while Pikachu limits Vincent's damage later in the match with his good ASV. Also, if it's a nailbiter in the final hour I don't see any way Crono loses, thanks to CT's "clutch" ability and how much the board vote despises Vince.

Second question is, if Pikachu goes crazy like last time, is there any chance that the Square boys could catch up to Samus? And my answer is... nay. During the euphoria of L-Block's demise I was considering this possibility, but now that my head is cleared I realize that even if Pika holds on better than Ganon (and he should- darn you, you stupid pig!), it probably wouldn't be by 5% like V or C would need. And even if it WAS by that much, don't forget that they're going to be dragging each other down in a dogfight all day. Given that I'd be shocked if Samus is ever not in first beyond the opening 90 minutes or so.

As to Pika, well, I'm expecting good things. He was in this position last year and did well, scoring 18 percent to Luigi's 23, so he seems a good bet to pull down about that much once again.

A comfortable Samus win, comfortable Pika last, and a down to the wire finish between the Square leads ought to result in something alot like... *pots, stirs, deliberates, and delivers*

Samus Aran - 31.74%
Crono - 25.13%
Vincent Valentine - 25.08%
Pikachu - 18.06%

That looks pretty wild... but heck, my bracket's dead, my Oracle is floudering, might as well go with my hunch for once!

Ngamer Says: Samus > Crono

Guest's Analysis - KleenexTissue

Good Morning, Crono!

Well, this is it. The most anticipated match of the contest. For me, anyway. Luckily we don't have an L-Block in the way to mess stuff up, so we should be in for something great here. Last year Crono became the first Noble Nine character to 'break' the group, and that match killed me because Crono's always been my favorite dude out of the nine, and after that embarassing loss to Sonic the year before it seemed like it was the end for the spiky-haired dude. So here we are a year later and we see Vincent and Crono duking it out again. This is a pretty important match as far as brackets are concerned because whoever takes second here likely rides the SFF train to the finals.

Under most circumstances, last year's result would be enough to tilt this in Vincent's favor, and despite my rampant Crono fanboyism, Vincent is still the favorite year. But in this 4-way format who knows. A month ago we saw Jill reverse a result on Ocelot even though Revolver had arguably the biggest game in his career inbetween while Jill got...nothing. And Vincent didn't beat Crono overwhelmingly last year either. So let's see what we've got here.

Samus should take first place here easy. She's still a cut above Crono and Vincent and even with our rodent savior here, she should be able to hang on to first. Still, Pikachu is weird and he's seemed moderately resistant to SFF in the past two years. Despite that, I can't see him hurting Samus enough to being her down to Crono/Vincent levels, so while she's probably going to look worse here than normal, Samus will take first which in turn deal the rat a last place finish. Oh well, you did well Pikachu.

So what's different about Crono/Vincent this year? Well for one, Crono hasn't looked like complete ass this year. He pulled a good percentage in Round 1 and managed to put away L-Block convincingly in Round 2 and 3. In addition, we haven't seen Crono utterly collapse during the day yet. Now, his opponents this year may not have been day vote stars, but it's still better than we say last year. Throw in that Frog performed similarly (Magus doesn't exist), and Crono looks at bit better than he did last year at this time. There's also this "CTDS hype" going around. While it certainly doesn't help him nearly as much as an actual release (why couldn't it be bumped up two weeks augh), I wouldn't rule it out as a factor completely. CTDS has been in the top 100 FAQS for a good chunk of the contest and it's in the top half og the top 10 DS games constantly, so there are people on the site talking about it. Whether those are old fans who would be voting Crono regardless, or new ones, who knows. Probably leaning more towards older fans, but it wouldn't take much.

On the Vincent side of things, he's been look pretty good this year too. A nice showing the first two rounds and he did pretty well on Samus last round (even if she was SFFd a bit). To me, Vincent looks about the same last year. I don't see any reason to call for any kind of boost, but he certainly hasn't lost a step. He's 100% capable of knocking Crono off again this year and unless Crono steps up to the plate here, he will. As opposed to last year, this is Vincent's match to lose.

Like I said at the beginning of this analysis, Vincent is still the favorite here and don't let me or anyone else tell you otherwise. But both characters are capable of winning, and after a close match last year, a few factors that make Crono look a bit better, and a bit (or a lot) of fanboyism, I'm taking Crono. He's either going to get me into the top 50 at the end of this contest, or screw me over for the 4th time in a row. God damn you Crono.

Kleenex's Prediction
Samus Aran - 35.31%
Vincent Valentine - 22.98%
Crono - 23.49%
Pikachu - 18.22%

Crew Consensus: Samus > Crono has 4 backers, while Samus > Vincent has 3

trannyscience | Posted 11/13/2008 10:20:12 PM | message detail | #061 | filter

what the

Crono fanboyz
---
xyzzy
http://isobamapresident.com/

XxSoulxX | Posted 11/13/2008 10:23:05 PM | message detail | #062 | filter

Samus > Crono rock on
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Good Times,
Great Memories

ZFS | Posted 11/13/2008 10:23:23 PM | message detail | #063 | filter

Lopen on Crono's side

(samus > vincent confirmed !)
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"You don't have to worry about me."

Gaddswell | Posted 11/13/2008 10:28:07 PM | message detail | #064 | filter

I'm totally rooting for the contest hero Pikachu here, though.

Lopen upset time!
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http://www.court-records.net/manga/4koma/(eng)4koma2.png

DpObliVion | Posted 11/13/2008 10:28:57 PM | message detail | #065 | filter

DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

Samus, Vincent, Crono....and Pikachu?? That sure doesn't fit in there, but at least it's not L-Block. We'll see how it influences things here. I originally had Ryu in his place, making Samus' first place pretty obvious. Samus' first place is probably still pretty obvious though, as Samus should take up most of the Nintendo vote while Vincent and Crono battle it out for the Square vote.

Vincent beat Crono last year by 1702 votes, with Link and Zero in the poll. Magus floppedd enough this year to lose to Sandbag, but Crono held up pretty well against L-Block. There may be some Chrono Trigger DS hype here, but it's not out yet, so I don't think it will affect much.

What this comes down to is I'm just not seeing a reason why Crono should turn around the result from last year. Besides the fact that he's Crono, of course, and we all remember his epic battles with Mario....but I'm going to have to stick with Vincent here.

Dp's bracket says: Samus > Vincent

Dp's prediction is: Samus > Vincent

Samus - 32%
Vincent - 25.50%
Crono - 24.50%
Pikachu - 18%

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

trannyscience | Posted 11/13/2008 10:31:09 PM | message detail | #066 | filter

aww yeah 4-4

crew bragging rights on the line here
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xyzzy
http://isobamapresident.com/

red sox 777 | Posted 11/13/2008 10:42:09 PM | message detail | #067 | filter

Let's go Hero of Time!
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu

Ngamer64 | Posted 11/14/2008 3:34:47 AM | message detail | #068 | filter

Lefty, think you could also show us the rankings just for R2?

Oh and uh... battle on, Crono!

---
Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/
Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com

LeonhartFour | Posted 11/14/2008 7:33:06 AM | message detail | #069 | filter

LOL Crono/Link LFF
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Temporarily Sidetracked

Moltar's Analysis

Cube, time to meet the same fate as Sandbag, L and my laptop did, death.

It took everything and more for Cube to pull out a win against a Zero-hindered Mega Man last round. No way does he even touch Cloud or Snake here. The two should take 1st and 2nd with ease. The better Snake does...the better this is for humanity.

Cube vs. Mewtwo who cares next

Cloud - 38% :: Snake - 28% :: Cube - 19% :: Mewtwo - 15%

Yoblazer's Analysis

Barring a miracle, this should be a pretty boring semifinal match, so I won't write much about it. The competitors are Solid Snake, Weighted Companion Cube, Cloud Strife, and Mewtwo. The winners (once again, barring a miracle) will be Cloud Strife and Solid Snake. Cloud will finish in first place. Snake will finish in second place. Not enough for you? So spoiled!

Snake has looked very scary this year. Boasting MGS4-enforced power (strongest Snake ever) and an improved day vote, he has neck-snapped three matches in a row. Unfortunately for the Solid one, however, he's still not on Cloud's level. In these contests, Cloud looks down on everyone not named Link, so he'll be winning this one pretty easily. Still, Snake has looked fierce enough for me to grant him a bit more respect than most, so I'll be giving him a nice 43.2% on the Square SFF machine.

The only entity with any chance of spoiling this Cloud/Snake love-fest is Weighted Companion Cube, and after what we've seen in the last round, I'd say his chances are slim to none (oh hay slim just got neck-snapped). Cube needed rallying and a big fanbase overlap just to take care of a weakass Mega Man, and he still was miles behind Snake. Even if WCC were to remain 100% static, he still wouldn't have enough raw percentage to upend Snake. He'll actually need some round-to-round strength growth, and that seems to be something the joke characters simply can't muster this year. Based on the obscenely strong nature of his competition and the fact that he'll be down early, I think Cube will be largely abandoned. In fact, I don't even see him cracking 20%. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if our forgotten fourth entrant, Mewtwo, gave him a scare, but that might be pushing.

Funnest thing about this match will be seeing how long Snake can hold the lead over Cloud. Here's hoping for one update! Make it happen, soldier.

Solid Snake - 29%
Weighted Companion Cube - 18%
Cloud Strife - 38%
Mewtwo - 15%

Lopen's Analysis

Eh, this match isn't much more interesting than it would be if Mega Man were here. And because Sora isn't here, I've lost my urge to do any sort of fanfiction involving him + the brick with the heart on it how could you people screw this up. I think I'll just not dress this one up.

Cloud: Obvious first. Mewtwo: Obvious roadkill. Cube has been dropping every round and wouldn't have even beat Mega Man last round were it not Zero there. Cloud + Snake + roadkill would be the perfect storm to beat it anyway.

Only interesting thing about this match is looking at how well entries do relative to each other. If Cube/Mewtwo over perform I think that further validates the idea of FF/MGS SFF. If Snake gets remotely close to Cloud he's looking good to win next round outright. I think it'll be both, honestly. Next round bottom half will be strange I guarantee it. No cookie Cloud > Snake going down there...!

Lopen's prediction:
Cloud - 33.67%
Snake - 26.11%
Die Heart Shaped Box Die - 20.11%
Mewtwo can't do what Pikachu could let's laugh at him now - 18.11%

Transience's Analysis

wow, great match. Vincent is the new Mario. I'm liking Crono's chances right now (at ~8pm) but who the hell knows. I guess you could say that Crono going from competing with Mario to Vincent is embarrassing for him, but eh. Mario's way stronger than he was back in the day. either way, contest redeemed. thank god the Block wasn't here.

I'm not going to write much today because frankly no one's going to read it. :) Cube has looked more and more "normal" each round, not a static entity. it's still got a good amount of static-ness to it but it's nothing like the L-Block of last year. L-Block had this same problem this year. given that we're looking at two top-5 characters in this poll and a relative joke like Mewtwo, I can't expect anything other than Cloud > Snake here. the Cube is going to die here. I think it might get killed more than anyone expects -- maybe enough to lose to Mewtwo. I think Mewtwo will do better than people expect here.

one last note - between Snake's amazing early vote, Cloud's awful early vote and people voting for Snake to kill the Cube, we could see a really crazy result early on. this match is mostly about comparing Snake to a known entity - Cloud. if he can get within 10% I think you can seriously considering Snake > Cloud next round.

transience's prediction:

Crono wins

....oh, this match.

Cloud with 37.22%
Solid Snake with 28.36%
Weighted Companion Cube with 18.99%
Mewtwo with 15.43%

Ngamer's Analysis

Gah, how am I supposed to do a writeup when there's this epic Crono/Vince battle going on in the background? Currently VV is up about 150 with 2 hours left and it's anyone's ballgame... but in any case, good showing for Crono! He's going to end up having a much better showing directly against Vincent than last season, which is a decent justification for those of us who picked him based on CT:DS hype or lack of Link overlap or whatever else we came up with. Also a nice showing for Samus- will be interesting to see how much she can improve on her '05 outing against Mario in this next round, although I don't see a way for either of them to keep up with Crono/Vincent, considering Link's presence.

Now moving on to what should be the last kind of dull matchup of the season. Or at least it darn well BETTER be dull... *shakes fist at WCC*

X-Stats from Round Three

Snake - 53.66% (based on '07 Mega Man)
WCC - 39.22% (based on '07 Mega Man)
Cloud - 54.91% (based on '07 Sora)
Mewtwo - 35.23% (based on '07 Sora)

What terrible terrible numbers! Mega Man's fate was sealed the moment Zero went and ruined everything by making that ASV comeback on Vivi, and it also left these x-stats fated to be awful. Not even the beastliest of MGS4/Brawl boosts could have pushed Snake above BL... and yet look at that, he STILL can't reach Cloud! That second set of numbers was of course destroyed by the triple Square SFF, which is likewise more or less impossible to adjust for. Oh well, moving on!

I took MGS4 boosted Steroid Snake to upset Cloud in the Final, but even *I* know that Solid isn't getting within CQCing range of Blonde Haired Zack without some major assistance from either Sephiroth or Vincent. As is, the only thing to keep an eye on is if Cloud can fire another shot across the bow by matching Link's percentage from earlier this round. 40% here would be hugely impressive, but I wouldn't put it past him.

Mewtwo had a nice run this season, but let's face it, that was mainly due to some very lucky placement and sliding by thanks to Fox making sure Yoshi wouldn't cut his legs out. After witnessing the ASV that Pika just pulled off against such respectable competition, I think we can put to bed the debate over who the strongest Pokemon is, at least in this format. I'd still like to see the two go head to head in a pure 1v1, but as is I don't see any way for Mew to come close to matching Pikachu's current percentage, and since he'd need to do so to have any shot of catching the Cube, a last place finish is just about a lock.

Speaking of WCC, let's check out his round by round progress. From 32% to 29% to not even 24%, ouch. And that was with hundreds of rallied votes and an ideal massive LFF setup, where it still barely managed to survive. There will be no such luck this time around; it's against three entirely independent characters who draw from three very powerful fanbases, and since it'll never be in the running against Snake no one's going to waste their time trying to rally for it. This is about as bad a situation as any joke could face, and as a result I'll be surprised if it can even manage to stay above 20%.

As for Snake, well, what's there to say? It would be really neat if he could hang around somewhat with Cloud, giving us some hope of the upset once Seph/VV come into play, but that doesn't seem very reasonable. Also would seem entirely insane (and infuriating!) if Cube ever challenged him. Staying within 10% or so of Cloud while 10% or so above WCC should be about right.

Cloud >> Snake >> Cube > Mewtwo... sure would be cool to see the Pokemon give him a run though! Sooo, that would work out to about... *pots and stirs up a heap 'o trouble*

Cloud Strife - 38.12%
Solid Snake - 27.66%
Weighted Companion Cube - 18.36%
Mewtwo - 15.86%

That looks... not very good, somehow. Oh well, if I go down I want to go down hating on joke characters.

Ngamer Says: Cloud > Snake

Crew Consensus: Cloud > Snake simple as that

DpObliVion | Posted 11/14/2008 10:17:53 PM | message detail | #073 | filter

DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

This is the end of the line for WCC. Or at least it better be. You can beat your share of Donkey Kongs and Tidus' and SFFed Mega Mans....but how will he fair against the second strongest competitor, and the rising Noble Niner who beat him by 20k votes last round?

Like crap, that's how he'll fair. WCC barely beat out Mega Man, who was being drained by Zero. Now he must make up 20k votes on Snake, as Cloud is now a lock for first in the match. Mewtwo is not going to make the difference, here. You can argue that with L-Block out, the joke voters will be rallying even harder behind WCC, but L-Block was already out for the last match, and it probably got most of its potential support to beat Mega Man.

WCC's only hope is that Cloud's presence takes the votes away from Snake while WCC remains stable, but Snake should be strong enough on his own, and WCC will still certainly drop a good bit, I just can't see it making up the difference. Although nothing would surprise me at this point....

Dp's bracket says: Cloud > Snake

Dp's prediction is: Cloud > Snake

Cloud - 36.50%
Snake - 27.50%
WCC - 22%
Mewtwo - 14%

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

Ngamer64 | Posted 11/14/2008 10:17:59 PM | message detail | #074 | filter

I miss the days when HM and a Guest used to-

Whoa, massive Crono cut! Oh man!

Wait, what was I saying? Who cares?! Cronoooooo!

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ZFS | Posted 11/14/2008 10:30:24 PM | message detail | #075 | filter

Cloud takes first, Snake takes a good second place setting up for his big win over Sephiroth next round, WCC doesn't do much of anything here.

Prediction: Cloud - 36% ; Snake - 29% ; WCC - 22% ; Mewtwo - 13%

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"You don't have to worry about me."

gamer88coool | Posted 11/15/2008 7:05:52 AM | message detail | #076 | filter

Snake takes a good second place setting up for his big win over Cloud next round

Fix'd
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Whoever posts below me is a fruitcake.
People who agree:93,348,874

Link................40.28% 54357
Zack Fair.......20.82% 28099
Mario.............21.67% 29244
Mega Man X..17.22% 23237
TOTAL VOTES............134937

What Happened - Link easily takes first, SFFing Mario and MMX in the process. This allows for Zack to bea MMX and come close to taking down Mario.

Why it Happened - Zack has the luckiest bracket placement in this whole contest. He's only a midcarder, yet here he almost takes out Mario! Link/Mario/MMX all share the Nintendo base, and you know Link is going to suck up most of it.

What Will Happen - Mario gets SFF-stomped by Link again woo

Samus Aran.............30.91% 37909
Vincent Valentine....25.25% 30963
Crono........................25.31% 31041
Pikachu.....................18.54% 22736
TOTAL VOTES........................122649

What Happened - What a rematch. Vincent started out better than he did last year, but Crono held up better. Vincent was unable to take the lead until the afternoon, and couldn't pull away thanks to Crono holding up better during the ASV. Since Crono kept it close until the last hour, he was able to come back with some...help from CT fans. I guess it isn't a contest if CT doesn't cheat it's way to victory in a match!

Why it Happened - Vincent/Crono was expected to be close, and there's always some random variation from year to year. Still, can't help but think Vincent truly won this again. Crono did do MUCH better this time around though.

What Will Happen - Link/Mario/Samus/Crono...well then

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay everyone (except Molt, HM and Tran)!

Yoblazer - 38
HM - 36
Ngamer - 36
Moltar - 35
Tran - 33
Guest - 31
Lopen - 28

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Yo gets the point for Link, Mario and Zack, and HM gets the point for X

HM and Yo get points for Samus, Ngamer gets the point for VIncent and Crono, and Kleenex gets the point for Pikachu

Yoblazer - 52
HM - 42
Moltar - 41
Ngamer - 41
Tran - 32
Guest (War (5), KP (2), Dp (2), Justin (2), greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai (3), Klennex (2), Luis (2), Scott, Soul (2), Leon (3), Ed, Luster (3), Zylo) - 33
Lopen - 25
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This is not my GameFOX sig...
Therefore, it doesn't exist!

DpObliVion | Posted 11/15/2008 6:58:21 PM | message detail | #078 | filter

Doubting I'll be back before the match starts....

DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

LET'S GO SONIC! Hopefully some doubts about his weakness should be calmed after last round's easy 2nd place. I hope noone's considering an upset here though, as even weakened, Kirby and Dante should not be beating out Sonic. The only other person to be considered for second here was Master Chief, if he was still at the level he was last year, but he was obviously far from it this year and is no longer in this contest. So, that just leaves....

SONIC!

Dp's prediction is: Sephiroth > Sonic

Sephiroth - 34.50%
Sonic - 24.50%
Kirby - 20.75%
Dante - 20.25%

I feel like I'm forgetting something I usually do....nope.

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

Moltar's Analysis

Summary: Seph > Dante, Sonic > Kirby, Seph > Sonic (again), Moltar = no laptop

Sephiroth - 37% :: Sonic - 25% :: Dante - 19% :: Kirby 19%

HM's Analysis

Interesting match today. Sephiroth should take an easy first, hoping to put as up as dominate a performance as he can after Snake's good showing today, but what happens in second is up in the air. The obvious choice is to go with Sonic - and the option I like the best out of these. An argument can be made for Kirby and Dante, though. But I don't think either one will get what they need in order to pull this off. Sonic did what he needed to last round to advance here.

The biggest argument against Sonic here is Kirby holding him back. Given that Sonic's base is made up of Nintendo, it's not a terrible argument to make, but Kirby isn't going to be hindering him to any significant degree, no more than Sephiroth will be holding Dante back. There's also something about rSFF here with Kirby coming out on top, but that's pretty crazy. He had a good showing last round, but that was very much because how much he stood out - Dante/Chief/Leon and then Kirby. That was a no brainer. Kirby ain't stronger than Sonic, and shouldn't get any sort of favoring there. If anything happens between these two, it'll be Sonic SFFing Kirby.

I give Dante a decent shot at pulling off the upset, but as mentioned before, he's dealing with Sephiroth. I wouldn't argue about FF/DMC overlap, but it's easy to see that Sephiroth and Dante would share some of the same fans - both are silver hair, sword-wielding badasses. Sephiroth will be taking most of those votes. Not even sure that Dante is strong enough to compete with Sonic in a neutral match - he's no Auron - so it only hurts to have Seph here, and helps out Sonic.

bring on mario/crono v gotta get workin on how mario takes first in this match over link happenin

Prediction: Sephiroth - 35% ; Sonic - 24% ; Dante - 21% ; Kirby - 20%

Yoblazer's Analysis

Welcome to our last and least cared about quarterfinal bout! We have Kirby, Dante, Sephiroth, and Sonic squaring off in what should be a liek total-ay predictable and boring match.

Sephiroth will win this match, and he'll win it jogging backwards with both hands in his pockets. After a first round hiccup, the silver haired nightmare has looked very ghoulish indeed, putting his opponents through a veritable meat grinder of pain and SFF. His primary opponent, Sonic, stands no chance. Last round, Sephiroth managed to put up nearly 58% on Sonic despite the hedgehog being aided by a huge "Stand Out" Factor and some significant fanbase splits. This round, the sides are evened up, as we have two silver haired badasses going up against two cartoony Nintendo lovelies. Keeping in mind Sonic's impending fanbase split with Kirby and the pain Sephiroth will likely wreak on Dante, I see the villain easily cracking 60% on his obnoxious blue punching bag. Should be nice.

Of course, barring a collapse of spectacular comeuppance, Sonic is still the huge favorite for second place. He should get the better of the Kirby split and will cruise as Seph kills Dante. He'll still look very bad compared to our winner, but hell, he's lucky to even be here. Of the eight Noble Niners who have made it this far, Sonic deserves his spot the least, so he should count his blessings and shut up.

Just shut up, Sonic. Shut up. You stopped being cool when Bart Simpson stopped being cool. No. I don't want to hear it. Shut up. Just shut up. Shut the **** up.

Anyway, if excitement is to be found here, it'll be in Kirby and Dante's battle for third place. Dante is the stronger battler intrinsically and, at first glance, may look like an easy choice when considering the Kirby/Sonic split. However, Dante might be spending the next 24 hours trying to mitigate a pounding. He has badass appeal. He has silver hair. He's Playstation born and bred. Yeah, it's hard to imagine Sephiroth not killing this guy, and I think that'll be just enough to give Kirby the close win.

Kirby - 19%
Dante - 18%
Sephiroth - 38%
Sonic the Hedgehog - 24%

Lopen's Analysis

I really have no idea how to call this one. I do think that whoever takes second here has a good chance of doing the same or better next round. But that's not for this write-up.

Sonic is likely the favorite to win... but frankly, I can't really agree with this. He's been fairly underwhelming in his matches. If Auron can school him, you've gotta believe that Dante and Kirby are at least in the same neighborhood as Auron. I mean, sure, he wins... but by as much as he beat Sonic? I'm really not sure at all. One could also make the case that Sonic gets hurt by Kirby being there... but I'm not sure how much I agree. Maybe because Sonic loses his "sore thumbiness" that he had before, but I don't really think Sandbag hurt him too singificantly. My money is on old school icon Sub-Zero doing more damage. Thing that makes me condemn him here... this feels too much like his round 4 pack last year... Snake/L-Block/Squall. With three strong fanbases pulling at him like that I'm not sure he can hold much above 20%.

Dante gets the argument that Sonic and Kirby hurt each other allowing him to slip through. Thing is, if you fly that route you've gotta think that Sephiroth hurts Dante in a similar fashion. If Kirby can hurt Sonic due to.. them both being colorful or something... then Dante can surely (WRONGLY, mind you) lose some of his badass vote to FF7's badass of badasses Sephiroth. I like Dante's chances more than Sonic's here, though... I do somewhat agree with this argument, he probably gets hurt the least by the others in this match.

This is mostly just a gut call here, but I think Kirby has this, in spite of logic saying if you go for the "cute" route you want to go for the stronger Sonic here. Kirby seems to me like he'll have a tough fanbase to crack... I thought this last year too... had him going pretty far, considering taking him over Sonic... good thing I didn't given the fluke L-Block...! Tangent aside, him managing 30% against that beastly competition last round reconvinced me, sore thumb or not. It should be noted that Kirby has never fallen below 25% in a contest match... if that holds here, that's all he needs! Kirby for the upset, here and next round! Oh yessss.

Lopen's prediction:
Sephiroth - 30.24%
Kirby - 24.42%
Dante - 23.32%
Sonic - 21.12%

Transience's Analysis

well, here's the calm before the storm. here you've got the original dumb ball vs. the newer dumb ball (I don't care if Kirby came first), and the original silver-haired badass vs. the new silver-haired badass.

the first thing we can do is toss out Kirby - I know people have been high on him after his performance last round, but he's not going to do well here. Sonic beat Luigi no problem, who beat Kirby no problem. Kirby was basically at the level of Master Chief before Leon and Dante were added, and now we've got Sonic to remove any sense of originality from Kirby.

Dante could surprise, I suppose. it depends on how much you think Sonic suffered thanks to Sandbag, and how much you think he overlaps with Sephiroth. my opinion is that Sephiroth hurts Dante a good amount and that he's going to put up some poor numbers. this is more a Dante vs. Kirby battle than a Dante vs. Sonic one for me.

Sephiroth should look great here, even better than before thanks to no other Square character. let's see if he can capitalize before getting SFF'd to death by Cloud.

transience's prediction:

Sephiroth with 40.56%
Sonic with 26.56%
Dante with 17.55%
Kirby with 15.33%

Ngamer's Analysis

Hmm, well guess I'll try to get this writeup in before UFC 91 kicks off. Gooo Lesnar! Things went about as expected today, except that Snake did a touch better than I expected and Mewtwo surprised me by collapsing. I realized he wasn't going to have triple LFF working overtime for him like last round, but STILL, he was the only Nintendo option and a Pokemon to boot- I assumed that meant that, like Pikachu, you wouldn't fold to anyone outside of Zelda/SSB. Time to boot Mew to the curb and bring in Charizard as a replacement IMO! As for Snake, darn fine showing here, and I think it sets us up for something extremely interesting once Sephiroth comes to town next round. As long as Sonic doesn't cramp Snake's Nintendo appeal too much, we could really be in for something special there!

As for what's coming up tonight, eh... I think there's potential here for an interesting result, but I've been forced to lower my hopes due to Sonic looking a little too good last around. Let's see what I mean.

X-Stats from Round Three
Kirby - 37.97% (based on '07 Leon)
Dante - 34.49% (based on '07 Leon)
Sephiroth - 34.68% (based on '07 Kratos)
Sonic - 28.31% (based on '07 Kratos)

Kirby, you monster! Alright, so obviously that isn't fair considering how Leon was being held way back by Dante while Kirby sat there in an ideal position, but still, it goes to show how dangerous the puffball can be with the right positioning. Meanwhile Seph and Sonic look awful, but that goes back to Kratos not having any reliable performances last season due to L-Block; adjust him up to something more reasonable and Sonic moves right into Kirby's range.

As I mentioned, I was really pumped for this matchup right after Dante knocked MC out of the bracket without breaking a sweat, despite Leon acting as an anchor (presumably) to his strength all day. Plus Kirby had looked fantastic, which got me excited for Kirby being able to make deep cuts into Sonic's Brawl/Nintendo base- possibly enough to let Dante sneak through for the advancement! But then Sonic went and had to ruin everything by scoring 28% in R3. Dang! To be clear, I still think the Blue Blur is in for a major hurting versus last round due to not sticking out like a sore thumb, but he just did too well there to bet against him. Also, he once again looks solid in these pictures whereas nothing from Dante really stands out to me. Also, silver-haired badass SFF? Not sure I entirely buy that, but eh, Dante would need a few more factors working in his favor to pull this off, so regardless I can't see it happening.

So Sonic > Dante... but can he at least top Kirby? I think so! Leon's gone, which should naturally be a huge weight off his shoulders, and now Kirby no longer gets a free ride against mature opponents, so I see him coming back down to a more natural strength. Kirby probably comes last here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him keep it very close, perhaps with a strong morning vote after Dante creates a decent lead in the dead of the night.

Sonic > Dante > Kirby, pretty close between all three. Is that going to leave any room for Seph to impress? I don't really think so. Sure he looked great in R3, but he's the kind of entrant than can eat PSX/2 action stars like Auron and Kratos up for lunch. I could see him damaging Dante somewhat that way, but Kirby figures to stand up much better against him, and if Sonic brings his A game for the second round in a row it'd be easy to see him stumble into the mid 30s. If instead he amazes us and shoots for 40 once again though, oh well, at least a showing like that would increase Snake's R5 chances!

Sephiroth >> Sonic > Dante >~ Kirby, sounds about right, now let's pot and stir this up quick so I can get back to this PPV!

Sephiroth - 35.83%
Sonic the Hedgehog - 24.70%
Dante - 19.93%
Kirby - 19.54%

That looks... like I'm undershooting Seph. Come on big guy, surprise us again!

Ngamer Says: Sephiroth > Sonic

Guest's Analysis - Luis_Sera

On the face of it, this match isn’t hard to call. Nope, no catch there, it just isn’t. There isn’t even an awful lot we can take from the aftermath of it. Sephiroth will take first due to being the strongest character he with no-one really sapping him that much (just Dante potentially, really, and that’s going to be minimal), Sonic will take second due to be being second strongest competitor (with the other two probably not being strong enough to capitalise on any split), and then it’s just a case of whether Dante can avoid last against a potentially hurt Kirby, but let’s not get too caught up on that last one. Sephiroth’s still going to get pasted by Cloud regardless and Snake will probably be able to take advantage and sneak into the finals. Sonic has a shot at 3rd there, but, yeah…

So, Seph got 38% last round against Sonic, SFF’d Auron and Kratos, how does that change here? It probably goes down a bit since Kirby and Dante are stronger than the latter two in that scenario, but not by much. Sonic is most likely going to be held back somewhat too by Kirby given his ever increasing shift towards Nintendo, so he’ll drop from his 28%, but Dante isn’t going to be doing anything crazy. Especially is Seph does what we’re all half expecting and takes a slice of Dante’s Playstation fanbase. He’ll probably get revenge on Kirby for the last round though, since the overlap between him and Sonic is just about prominent enough, and there’s only 3% to make up after all.

So really this match is all about how Seph looks shaping up to take on an SFF onslaught in the semi’s. Given how Snake is doing today though, he’ll likely fall one short no matter what he does.

Sephiroth – 37%

Sonic – 25%

Dante – 20%

Kirby – 18%

Crew Consensus: Seph > Sonic, Lopen Upset Special - Seph > Kirby

DpObliVion | Posted 11/15/2008 11:16:40 PM | message detail | #083 | filter

WHAT THE **** IS THIS, I WILL KILL YOU IN THE NIGHT LOPEN

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

Lopen | Posted 11/15/2008 11:17:01 PM | message detail | #084 | filter

Looks like paydirt here

Suck it, crew...! (Why is Dante doing so poorly ;_; )
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante.
Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby.

Karma Hunter | Posted 11/15/2008 11:24:28 PM | message detail | #085 | filter

You know when a Lopen upset special looks like it's coming together things have gone terribly terribly terribly terribly terribly terribly turrbleee terribly terribly terribly terribly

wrong
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in

Ngamer64 | Posted 11/16/2008 12:04:24 AM | message detail | #086 | filter

You've got to be kidding me. Not even LOPEN had any confidence in this Lopen Upset Special!

This is just absurd.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/16/2008 12:14:14 AM | message detail | #087 | filter

I can't do anything else but high-five Lopen.

Just look at this match!

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10

Gaddswell | Posted 11/16/2008 12:15:00 AM | message detail | #088 | filter

Haha, Lopen's upset is actually happening!
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaGWrPcjb8

BDawg | Posted 11/16/2008 12:16:38 AM | message detail | #089 | filter

We are Lopen nation.
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Should I start running now?

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/16/2008 12:19:41 AM | message detail | #090 | filter

Lopen! Wins immunity!
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Yoblazer: http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/3699/thegamefaqsticketxr8.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

Lopen | Posted 11/16/2008 12:20:37 AM | message detail | #091 | filter

Well to be fair I had confidence in Kirby > Sonic... just not Kirby > Dante!

Seems the bishounen factor is not to be denied.

Kirby > Cloud next round let's get this train rolling WHO IS WITH ME!
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante.
Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby.

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/16/2008 12:21:41 AM | message detail | #092 | filter

Will Snake > Kirby suffice
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Yoblazer: http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/3699/thegamefaqsticketxr8.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

Lopen | Posted 11/16/2008 12:23:43 AM | message detail | #093 | filter

Snake > Kirby is sufficient (also a possibility I can't help but humor...!)

Top 3 results:
Kirby > Snake
Snake > Kirby
Kirby > Cloud

Likin #3 from an analyst standpoint though!
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante.
Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby.

ZFS | Posted 11/16/2008 12:25:27 AM | message detail | #094 | filter

gets one right and then starts goin' off into crazy land !

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http://i33.tinypic.com/2s0xn3o.gif

transience | Posted 11/16/2008 12:26:49 AM | message detail | #095 | filter

even a blind kid can hit a dartboard once in a while!
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon

Lopen | Posted 11/16/2008 12:39:10 AM | message detail | #096 | filter

Yeah we'll see who's blind next round.

The dartboard has moved, people. Adapt or die !!
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante.
Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby.

DpObliVion | Posted 11/16/2008 3:01:45 AM | message detail | #097 | filter

Ugh, I would've rather Sonic lose to Sandbag. This is just ****ing....****.

I hate this contest so much.

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

gamer88coool | Posted 11/16/2008 7:50:19 AM | message detail | #098 | filter

This is actually perfect for my bracket.
tomorrow's round:
Link vs. Mario vs. Samus vs. Crono
Link > Samus (link saps nintendo/sword vote, samus 2nd from tjf and gun vote)
then:
Cloud vs. Snake vs. Seph vs. Kirby
Snake > Kirby (due to sff)
Finals:
Link vs. Samus vs. Snake vs. Kirby
Snake > Link (due to nintendo 3-way split)
o yes
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Whoever posts below me is a fruitcake.
People who agree:93,348,874

-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/16/2008 7:56:17 AM | message detail | #099 | filter

Samus won't be advancing tomorrow. Most likely, it will be Crono.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~

Solid Snake.................................29.14% 39971
Weighted Companion Cube....19.18% 26314
Cloud Strife..................................38.41% 52686
Mewtwo.........................................13.27% 18206
TOTAL VOTES............................................137177

What Happened - In a bout that went just as planned, Cloud beats Snake and Snake easily beats a Cube.

Why it Happened - No way was Cube going to have any joke momentum after barely beating MM last round, so it was bound to go down here.

What Will Happen - With Seph joining the action next round...does Snake have a shot at first?

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay everyone!

Yoblazer - 39
HM - 37
Ngamer - 37
Moltar - 36
Tran - 34
Guest - 31
Lopen - 29

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Ngamer gets the point for Cloud, Yo and HM get points for Snake, Molt gets the point for WCC, and HM gets the point for Mewtwo

Yoblazer - 53
HM - 44
Moltar - 42
Ngamer - 42
Tran - 32
Guest (War (5), KP (2), Dp (2), Justin (2), greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai (3), Klennex (2), Luis (2), Scott, Soul (2), Leon (3), Ed, Luster (3), Zylo) - 33
Lopen - 25
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This is not my GameFOX sig...
Therefore, it doesn't exist!

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