GameFAQs Contests

Character Battle VII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 4

The "almost at the end of the road" Edition

Welcome to the 40th annual Contest Analysis Crew topic! We thank you for sticking with us over the years.

Okay, so it isn't that old, but we've been going strong since Spring 2004, and another four-way contest won't stop us now!

For those who are new here, the Contest Analysis Crew (or The Crew, or AC, whatever you want to call us) is a group of users who know how these Contests work. Our duty is to analyze each match and predict who will win each match and the percentages each character will get. We might not be 100% right, but then again, who is?

So, it's time for me to find my Crew members. In order to build a strong Crew, I'm going to have to travel across the whole land!

My name is Master Moltar, the self-proclaimed leader of the Crew!

*after 30 minutes of dialogue skipping and random running around*

Moltar: Hey, it's my good friend Heroic Mario. We've known each other for years, and-

HM: You want me on your Crew? Sure!

Random person: Hey, there's trouble in the next town!

*an hour later*

Moltar: We got here too late, darn it!

Yoblazer: When I find out who did this, they'll pay for ruining my village! My name is Yoblazer btw.

Moltar: So your name is Yoblazer. Didn't you win a contest a while back? How about you join my Crew.

Yoblazer: Okay!

*3 hours later*

Lopen: Look at me, I'm Lopen, a bad guy who's going to steal your money to help save my dying sibling!

Moltar: No, join my crew instead Lopen, you who likes to make those crazy upset picks.

Lopen: Okay I'll forget about my bitter past and look forward to a bright future with my new friends!

*10 hours later*

Moltar: So we've traveled across nearly the whole continent, but I don't think my partner is big enough.

Tran: 5 people is plenty!

Moltar: 5...wait, how long have you been here, Transience, he who joined for the CB6 Crew?

Yoblazer: He popped up around 7 hours ago.

Lopen: Yeah, he and HM just keep going back and forth

HM: zack zack zack

Tran: tim tim tim

*20 hours later*

Moltar: So we're almost at the end of journey and-

Ngamer: Wait, I want to come along.

Moltar: Ngamer? The mysterious figure from my past who was hinted at through various dream sequences? You've never been on a Crew before!

Ngamer: I'm ready to learn.

*10 hours later right before the final boss*

Moltar: Well then, I guess our Crew is complete!

???: Not yet!

Moltar: Why look, it's everyone from my hometown. I guess I can pick one Guest to join me on the Crew from the upcoming challenges!

E-mail: mastermoltar@gmail.com

Past Topics: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/9 (newer topics should be on the B8Wiki when Ngamer gets around to it)

Gaddswell | Posted 11/11/2008 12:48:07 AM | message detail | #002 | filter

Tag
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http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaGWrPcjb8

transience | Posted 11/11/2008 12:52:02 AM | message detail | #003 | filter

when Cloud beats Link you can all link to this post and say "tran told you so"
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg

Lopen | Posted 11/11/2008 12:53:03 AM | message detail | #004 | filter

Hey tranny

I've got that too

I bet you feel pretty safe now, don't ya?
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe

transience | Posted 11/11/2008 12:53:20 AM | message detail | #005 | filter

****
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg

transience | Posted 11/11/2008 12:53:41 AM | message detail | #006 | filter

poll: should I delete my post now or in two weeks
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg

ZFS | Posted 11/11/2008 12:58:26 AM | message detail | #007 | filter

probably now - less people see it

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http://i33.tinypic.com/2s0xn3o.gif
http://i34.tinypic.com/15wdsu0.gif

Lopen | Posted 11/11/2008 1:00:20 AM | message detail | #008 | filter

What, you think they think I'll talk to myself? They know I know what you said, you know?
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe

woo screenshots

Anyway, 3 have Chief > Kirby (Yo, Lopen, Tran)
2 have Kirby > Chief (Moltar, Ngamer)
2 have Kirby > Dante (HM, Guest)

who winz
---
hmm
well then

transience | Posted 11/11/2008 1:02:15 AM | message detail | #010 | filter

got money on the Chief here. fake money. Moltar Bucks.

I realized earlier -- if Kirby > Dante happens, the people with Chief > Kirby get less than the people with Chief > Dante woo
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg

Lopen | Posted 11/11/2008 1:04:03 AM | message detail | #011 | filter

Yeah I'm likin Chief here for second.

AND DANTE FOR FIRST OHHH SERVED PINKY

... no not really (Chief for second though yes)
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe

edwardsdv | Posted 11/11/2008 1:07:22 AM | message detail | #012 | filter

I predicted it last thread and i will do it again.

Kirby>dante

Lopen | Posted 11/11/2008 1:47:49 AM | message detail | #013 | filter

Yeah, I've changed my stance on this one, Dante probably has it.

We've got 4 hours of Dante's best time and Chief's worst time coming up. It's probably going to be around 2500 votes come morning, with Kirby and Dante being neck-n-neck.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe

DpObliVion | Posted 11/11/2008 1:49:20 AM | message detail | #014 | filter

Late because of 500 lock. This was written before the match started, and completely unchanged it started.

DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

You don't make sense, Mewtwo....

Anyway....Master Chief was really struggling against an SFFed non-Solid-Snake-look-a-like Big Boss early last round, making a strong case to be eliminated in this match, until he pulled it out and finished a close second to Kirby. Then, the following day, Leon split much closer to Dante than expected. The one who has truly been impressive so far is Leon, but unfortunately he is set for last here.

So, Kirby and Master Chief will once again be facing a set of characters held back by SFF. Dante and Leon are arguably strong than Big Boss and Raiden, but will split more closely, so Dante will be held back more than Big Boss was. Big Boss and Raiden combined for 38% of the vote last round, and Dante and Leon should exceed that, but by how much? I'm thinking the Capcom pair may need to bring in about 50% of the vote, considering the heavy split between them, to allow Dante to take 2nd here. Against a strong Nintendo vote in Kirby and the face of the Xbox/FPSs in Master Chief, I'm having a hard time seeing that happen.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised to see Master Chief take 1st here. With less votes to go around between him and Kirby, I can see that hurting Kirby a bit more. Also, the MGS pair could be riding MGS4 hype, which the recency factor could hurt MC more in that situation. MC only has to make up ~1% of votes to beat Kirby from last round. I still like Kirby sticking out in this match though, but I'm very tempted to stick with my bracket here. But I won't.

This match is fascinating though. I can see Kirby/MC/Dante finishing in any position here.

Dp's bracket says: Master Chief > Dante (assuming Leon wasn't in the match)

Dp's better alt bracket which already has 20 more points than my main bracket says: Master Chief > Kirby

Dp's upset prediction that I should be making with my bracket bias: Master Chief > Kirby

Dp's prediction is: Kirby > Master Chief

Kirby - 28.20%
Master Chief - 27.80%
Dante - 23.65%
Leon - 20.35%

---
NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

transience | Posted 11/11/2008 3:10:00 AM | message detail | #015 | filter

yeah, I'd say Dante's got this. I didn't expect him to go from 10-20 vote gains to 50 vote ones.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg

LeonhartFour | Posted 11/11/2008 7:21:40 AM | message detail | #016 | filter

I'll just go ahead and say this: If Auron doesn't beat Sonic tomorrow, Dante will.

Or Kirby will! Whoo!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)

Squall Leonhart........16.39% 23037
Sora............................15.74% 22123
Cloud Strife...............44.72% 62857
Mewtwo.....................23.16% 32551
TOTAL VOTES......................140568

What Happened - Mewtwo takes second easily thanks to Cloud destroying Sora and Squall.

Why it Happened - Cloud, Squall and Sora all were hurt from a three-way fanbase split. This allowed Mewtwo to capitalize and take second.

What Will Happen - Snake/Cube/Cloud/Mewtwo...let's go snake

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay everyone (except Lopen and Guest)!

Yoblazer - 35
Ngamer - 33
HM - 33
Moltar - 33
Tran - 31
Guest - 28
Lopen - 25

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Ngamer gets the point for Cloud, HM gets the point for Mewtwo, Molt and Yo get points for Sora, and HM and Yo get points for Squall

Yoblazer - 48
Moltar - 39
Ngamer - 39
HM - 39
Tran - 31
Guest (War (5), KP (2), Dp (2), Justin (2), greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai, Klennex, Luis (2), Scott, Soul (2), Leon (3), Ed, Luster (3), Zylo) - 30
Lopen - 23

FantasyFreak999 | Posted 11/11/2008 3:36:51 PM | message detail | #018 | filter

tagging
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"Run, run, or you'll be well done!"
~Kefka, Final Fantasy 6~

Moltar's Analysis

One character that stands out vs. three characters that don't. Where have we seen this before? darn you bracket and darn you 4-ways and darn you laptop that still isn't fixed

So, like Cloud, Seph will reign over his fourpack of characters that are either FF or "badass". Then, like Mewtwo, Sonic will stand out and take second. Only think worth watching here is how bad Seph looks (because it's always a good day when Seph looks bad)

Sephiroth - 36% :: Sonic - 28% :: Auron - 19% :: Kratos - 17%

HM's Analysis

Looks like Dante has it wrapped up against the Chief. I figured he'd win, but not as easily as this. If Sephiroth weren't there next round, I'd like him a lot for second. Then again, with Kirby also there who knows...

As for today's match, Sonic should shine. He may have looked bad last round against Auron, not even putting up a fight for first, but he stands out so much today among three 'badasses' that it'll be hard for him to not look good. Mewtwo's taken advantage of it, Kirby's taking advantage of it today, and Sonic shouldn't have any doing the same problem here.

Some people have flirted with the idea of Auron taking second, but Sonic didn't do that poorly - there was only a 5% difference between the two. Add in some SFF between Sephiroth/Auron and Sonic should cruise to an easy second today. There is Kratos, but I can't see him doing anything. He's the weakest of the bunch here by a good margin, and he'll probably be hurt by having to compete against Sephiroth and Auron - they'll take away a lot of what makes Kratos appealing to voters.

If it couldn't be better for Sonic, there's also no Sandbag. There's an argument to be made that Sandbag would hurt Sonic, which may or may not be true. In either case, it can't hurt that it's gone. Sonic's got it made today - he stands out, there's three 'badass' characters vying for the same votes, and he's the only real option for Nintendo voters. Hard to not see him impressing.

Oh, and Sephiroth is gonna underperform here for reasons stated...or maybe he overperforms. You never know with Sephiroth!

Prediction: Sephiroth - 36% ; Sonic - 27% ; Auron - 19% ; Kratos - 18%

Vote: Auron

Yoblazer's Analysis

Well what is there to say about this match any way. It's nearly identical to what we're currently witnessing, in that there are three (in this case, blade-wielding) badasses and one cartoony animal thing that stands out like a sore thumb. Sephiroth, Auron, and Kratos are the badasses. Sonic is the dum pink ball thing. Naturally, Sonic has the huge upper hand.

It ain't enough of an upper hand to approach Sephiroth, though. Seph may be mired in a big fanbase split, but he'll definitely get the better of Auron and Kratos and will cruise to a third consecutive easy win. In fact let's not talk about him anymore. Based on the drumming Auron put on Sonic a week ago, I'd say that even a comparatively weak Nintendo character in the #4 spot would make Auron a contender for second. Unfortunately, the fourth guy in the mix is the very un-Nintendo Kratos, a tough-as-nails warrior in his own right, but he seems a bit uncool for hurting Auron's chances and helping Sonic and stuff.

Either way, if Sonic shows any signs of distress here, it will be the icing on one of the crappiest, nastiest, rankest cakes in contest history. The dang hedgehog has absolutely no reason not to cruise into second and overperform on Sephiroth on his way there. Auron has less than a 1% chance (numbers out the bumbum, yeaaah) here, so I'll be relegated to hoping that he can resist Sephiroth well enough to outdo Kratos. I'm confident he can, but it sucks that crappy bracket placement dashes his hopes for greatness yet again.

Auron - 21%
Sonic the Hedgehog - 26%
Sephiroth - 35%
Kratos (God of War) - 18%

Lopen's Analysis

Sephiroth could hardly contain himself. It'd been a long time since he'd encountered a truly strong opponent. It seemed like ages since the last time he'd had a good reason unsheath his weapon... women, animals, and the old and balding were the only ones Sephiroth had come across this year... they weren't worthy of his glory. Oh, sure, he'd had his fun exerting his dominance over Tifa for two rounds straight... but nothing could compare to the experience of crossing swords with a strong swordsman. He trembled with anticipation as Auron entered the arena.

A "hmph" was all the acknowledgment Auron gave to Sephiroth as he methodically strode past the silver haired warrior. He'd left his back exposed... Sephiroth certainly wasn't above starting things from behind, but he restrained himself from whipping it out and skewering Auron immediately. After all this time, he wanted a more intimate confrontation, especially considering Auron's experience.

Auron turned to face his opponent, and Sephiroth could contain himself no longer! He quickly unsheathed his obscenely long weapon and opened up with a barrage of thrusts in Auron's direction. Not to be outdone, Auron brought his massive weapon to his front and skillfully repulsed Sephiroth's attacks. Sephiroth was shocked... Auron held it and an odd angle before, partially concealed by his coat, and so it didn't originally appear Auron had quite so much size. What Sephiroth had on him in length, Auron made up for in raw mass. While it wasn't quite the size of Cloud's weapon of choice, it was large and sturdy enough for exhilarating (even slightly painful?) reverberations to shoot through Sephiroth's body as he was deflected, making only grazing contact with Auron's flesh.

Kratos, who had been watching from the sidelines, was no longer content to watch. While he didn't quite have the size of Auron or the length of Sephiroth, Kratos's armament was deceptive in that its length could extend and retract greatly, on command... and after all, it had all the might of the gods contained within it... he wouldn't have Sephiroth's disrespect. He'd been caught off guard last round, and his performance was poor as a result, but he knew he was worthy. He entered the fray, and engaged both combatants. Unfortunately, Kratos hadn't thought very far ahead, and was quickly sandwiched between the two men, and ravaged almost instantly. Auron panted a bit, and Sephiroth knew that if he wanted to penetrate Auron's defenses now was the time... he quickly lunged upon Auron and impaled the old man. Sephiroth reveled, getting satisfaction he'd not felt in quite some time as Auron convulsed and then collapsed. Sephiroth, surprised the combat reached its climax so quickly, discarded him atop Kratos.

Sephiroth wasn't quite exhausted yet... he could handle one more today... and so he challenged the small blue animal to cross swords. Sonic, half confused, half horrified at what he'd just seen... maintained his composure somehow and retorted with a simple, "Sorry, bud, two advance, I'm not getting involved with this! Juice time!" as he fled from the arena.

---

Okay, that was a bit longer than it should've been...! Well, assuming anyone is still reading... in all seriousness... this match is pretty straightforward. We've seen Auron get massacred by Cloud before, it caused him to lose to a Ryu he'd beaten by about 8% the round previous. Sephiroth probably won't be quite as nasty here, but Sonic didn't lose by nearly 8% either. I'm thinking Sonic will be closer to Sephiroth's bar size than Auron's here. In fact, I give him a slight chance to upset given he's got not only FF SFF but also the "stickin out like a sore thumb" factor Kirby loves so much.

Lopen's prediction:
Sephiroth - 31.11%
Sonic - 27.14%
Auron - 22.56%
Kratos - 19.19%

Transience's Analysis

as if tomorrow's match wasn't completely obvious, today's match goes and makes Sonic look even better.

you've got three badasses... and Sonic. sound familiar? yeah, it's the same situation Kirby is currently in, and he's up some 5000 votes on a guy who's most likely a little stronger than him. Sonic also stands out like hell in those pictures.

to make things even easier for him, there's no Sandbag tagging along this time. to make things even worse for Auron, he's got Sephiroth to deal with. Seph beat Auron like 67/32 back in '04 and there's no reason to expect anything different. last year, Auron had a convincing win against Bowser and Ryu only to lose to Ryu when Cloud got added to the picture. Auron is screwed here.

you could sorta make an argument for Kratos over Sonic -- he's about Dante's equal and I've seen some talk about Dante taking Sonic out next round -- but Sephiroth is just gonna kill his badass appeal. think Snake / Ryu Hayabusa. I think Kratos beats Auron (unpopular opinion? who knows) but Sonic is going to come out of this thing looking golden.

argh I feel dirty talking up Sonic wait til you see my prediction

transience's prediction:

Sephiroth - 36.33%
Sonic - 29.04%
Kratos - 18.45%
Auron - 15.52%

Ngamer's Analysis

This is seriously pretty upsetting. I've always despised MC and had hearty laughs at his failures, but after last season I had no choice but to respect him (in this format, at least). So I go out and give him credit for the first time ever, and he thanks me by doing THIS... not only do I get this pick wrong, but it's the mistake that eliminates me from the Guru. Bah!

I mean, losing to Dante would be weird (considering he beat him by 6% last year in a fair, non-Block match), but at least understandable/acceptable post-DMC4. But to never even be in contention against Dante, in a match where he's being limited by Leon, in a match where there's no one to share your Xbox fanbase? That's just flat out pathetic.

But enough venting, we've got a new, hopefully less disgusting result to predict!

X-Stats from Round Two

Auron - 31.98% (based on '07 Sub-Zero)
Sonic - 29.69% (based on '07 Sub-Zero)
Sephiroth - 39.24% (based on '07 Jill)
Kratos - 28.93% (based on '07 Jill)

I like the Subby-based numbers (especially since they result in Sandbag falling under the fodder line) but those Jill-based babies seem a touch high... she appears to have collapsed somewhat against such tough R2 competition. Can't blame her though, as these were three very daunting opponents- not even REFAQs could make up for that.

Some people are trying to come up with ways to validate tonight's match as somehow in doubt, but... eh, I just can't see it. We've already seen the kind of beatdown Seph can apply when he decides he wants to take a match seriously, and even though Auron is sure to hold up better than Tifa managed, it's still got the potential to get ugly. If that was all that Sonic had going in his favor I'd probably still be rocking this upset, but... there's a bag in the way.

Everyone wants to dismiss Sandbag as a joke and forget he ever existed, and though I understand that line of thought, I don't think it's very wise. Stupid as it was, that thing exhibited legitimate Nintendoish, SSB proxy-style vote patterns and strength. I just can't visualize something that so clearly symbolized SSB Brawl not taking a decent bite out of Sonic's fanbase. With that out of the picture and Sonic now being the one to stand out from the mature badass crowd like a cute lil' Kirby, the ball is clearly in his court. With all these factors in his favor, if that hedgehog can't take the rock to the hole tonight then heck, it'd be more embarrassing than Master Chief. And that's saying alot!

Kratos has impressed me a decent bit the last two times out, but I feel pretty confident picking him for last place regardless. His appealing character design won't win him many votes against cool customers like Sonic/Auron/Seph, the FFX star limits his PS2 base, and I get this odd feeling that Auron's somehow going to do something respectable despite the SFFing. So yeah, 4th place seems a good bet.

A big Seph win, then fairly tight races between the others ought to give us something along the lines of... *pots once and stirs twice*

Sephiroth - 35.85%
Sonic the Hedgehog - 24.60%
Auron - 21.51%
Kratos (God of War) - 18.04%

That looks... reasonable, I suppose. Cloud's 50-18 beating of Auron gets me a little worried, but I've just got this hunch that he holds up way way better in this one for some reason.

Ngamer Says: Sephiroth > Sonic

Crew Consensus: Seph > Sonic yay fanbase splits

Also here's how Guest Analyses work for R4.

The three macthes that are already set in stone are up for grabs. Just say in here that you want it and then actually do the write-up and send it to me.

For the rest of the matches in the bracket, each one becomes available at 11:00:00 PM once the full match is set in stone (like you can't call Kirby/Dante/Seph/Sonic until Auron/Sonic/Seph/Kratos is officially ended).
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This is not my GameFOX sig...
Therefore, it doesn't exist!

Justin_Crossing | Posted 11/11/2008 10:21:05 PM | message detail | #024 | filter

I call Snake/WCC/etc./etc.
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Gaaah my GameFOX sig reset and I'm too lazy to change it back.

DpObliVion | Posted 11/11/2008 10:21:59 PM | message detail | #025 | filter

DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

Today's match results make me feel like I don't know what the hell I'm doing here....but let's go at it again, shall we!

Hey, look who's in this match....it's SONIC!!!!!!

Finally I can enjoy a Sonic match, now that that damn Sandbag isn't involved. Except for that little fact that Auron beat Sonic last round. You can, however, make a case that Sandbag hurt Sonic much more than Auron, and even Sub-Zero would share a mainstream audience with the hedgehog. And, thankfully, this round it will be Auron suffering from a split, with the badass Final Fantasy villain Sephiroth joining the match.

Oh, if only Tifa had beaten out Kratos, too, this could be really interesting. Sonic beating the powerhouse, especially with how he has struggled in this format, is still a bit of a stretch, and this sentence is likely only here due to my Sonic bias. Beating Sephiroth here would give me thrills like his comeback against Crono....

But I will be satisfied with 2nd place here. As we've seen, even the toughest of non-FF7 FF characters get SFFed to hell by Cloud and Sephiroth, and Kratos shouldn't come near Sonic.

The question here will be if Sonic can impress enough to show that he can beat out the so-far-impressive Kirby and Dante for 2nd next round....come on, Sonic, don't let me down!

YAY SONIC!

Dp's bracket says: Sephiroth > Sonic

Dp's prediction is: Sephiroth > Sonic

Sephiroth - 36.50%
Sonic - 25%
Auron - 20%
Kratos - 18.50%

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

trannyscience | Posted 11/11/2008 10:26:20 PM | message detail | #026 | filter

thanks lopen
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xyzzy
http://isobamapresident.com/

BDawg | Posted 11/11/2008 10:28:13 PM | message detail | #027 | filter

Eh Sonic can have a sword thanks to Sonic and the Black Knight...really Sonic Team?
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Should I start running now?

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/11/2008 10:51:09 PM | message detail | #028 | filter

I'm taking Crono/Vincent.
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CB7 Score: 260/352
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg

Lopen | Posted 11/11/2008 10:59:25 PM | message detail | #029 | filter

No problem tranny.

Apparently it went under the radar of some, but I know you're always a fan.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe

Sonic_Druid | Posted 11/11/2008 10:59:30 PM | message detail | #030 | filter

You know, you should make an actual fanfic out of this tournament. I would LOVE to see that happen. :)

Best place would be on FFN, because I'm a member there. But that's just me.
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BFC: 2492-6375-2047 (Sonic)

Lopen | Posted 11/11/2008 11:13:06 PM | message detail | #031 | filter

There have been fanfiction projects on the board... all with much higher writing skill than mine, but you know, it's a kinda fun way to pass the time with the obvious matches.

Though it could be fun to do every match for a contest someday...!
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe

gamer88coool | Posted 11/12/2008 5:56:19 AM | message detail | #032 | filter

So is the last "set in stone" match either
A. Link/Zack/Mario/MMX
or
B. Kirby/Dante/Sephiroth/Sonic

P.S. Lopen change ur sig Believe
---
Whoever posts below me is a fruitcake.
People who agree:93,348,874

Kirby...................29.96% 42756
Master Chief........24.12% 34425
Dante.................26.15% 37324
Leon Kennedy.....19.76% 28204
TOTAL VOTES..............142709

What Happened - Kirby takes first by a good margin, and Game Fuel is unable to propel Chief past Dante for second.

Why it Happened - Kirby stuck out like crazy in the poll, and was the only Nintendo option. Leon also may have been hurt a little by Kirby, as its possible he gets a little of his strength from Nintendo fans. Chief definitely lost his strength from the Halo 3 hype last year, as he went from beating Dante twice to losing here.

What Will Happen - Kirby and Dante both have stronger, similar opponents to battle next round.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay no one (except HM and Guest)!

Yoblazer - 35
HM - 34
Ngamer - 33
Moltar - 33
Tran - 31
Guest - 29
Lopen - 25

Crew Accuracy Challenge - satai gets the point for Kirby and Dante, HM gets the point for Chief, and Lopen gets the point for Leon

Yoblazer - 48
HM - 40
Moltar - 39
Ngamer - 39
Tran - 31
Guest (War (5), KP (2), Dp (2), Justin (2), greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai (3), Klennex, Luis (2), Scott, Soul (2), Leon (3), Ed, Luster (3), Zylo) - 32
Lopen - 24
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hmm
well then

Link/Zack/Mario/MMX is still open

Klennex has Samus/Vincent/Crono/Pika

Justin has Snake/Cube/Cloud/Mewtwo

Kirby/Dante/Sephiroth/Sonic becomes available at 12:00 PM EST (as soon as the poll closes)
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hmm
well then

mdarkcecil | Posted 11/12/2008 10:21:07 AM | message detail | #035 | filter

Who the hell let a bunch of dumb kids on this site! Sonic the hedgehog doesn't beat Auron, nor Kratos.
One thing I've always disliked about the character battles is, they're always a popularity contest, no one actually analyses the characters just, "Oh my god Link is in this? No idea who everyone else is, I'll just vote Link"

WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:21:36 AM | message detail | #036 | filter

I'll take Link/X/Mario/Zack
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~War~ The Cream of Transexual Ex Girlfriend Fanboyism ~War~

WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:22:00 AM | message detail | #037 | filter

Read the rules.
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~War~ The Cream of Transexual Ex Girlfriend Fanboyism ~War~

BDawg | Posted 11/12/2008 9:37:19 PM | message detail | #038 | filter

Whoa this is a popularity contest?! Get that man on the crew.
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Should I start running now?

Lopen | Posted 11/12/2008 9:38:59 PM | message detail | #039 | filter

People have been reading my write-ups for insight a bit too closely. That's where the confusion comes from imhhho.
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante.
Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby.

Moltar's Analysis

woo more fanbase splits, boo still having no laptop

Anyway, Link wins, battle is for second is between Mario/X/Zack. I don't think Zack is strong enough to capitalize on the split between the Nintendo guys. I also think Link being here is going to hurt X more than Mario. We've already seen Mario hold up decently against Link, and every time MM has stepped up to LoZ, it's been slapped down.

Link - 38% :: Mario :: 25% :: MMX - 19% :: Zack - 18%

Yoblazer's Analysis

We've got about a week to go in this contest, and we're winding things
down tonight with a match that has people excited. Granted, the winner
in this battle between Link, Zack Fair, Mario, and Mega Man X is
guaranteed, but the runner-up sure ain't.

Let's start with the winner. Link is going to win; everyone knows
this. Most predictions I've seen have him pegged in the high 30s, but
I'll revel in my inner fanboyism and give him a bit more love. He
scored over 36% last year against Mario, Sephiroth, and Vincent.
Granted, Vincent was SFF'd to a pulp, but I still think the inclusion
of Sephiroth makes Link's quarterfinal opponents last year a clearly
superior bunch. Link won't be benefiting from any Final Fantasy SFF,
but the fourth guy here (Mega Man X) is an entrant that Link can slice
n' dice with some SFF of his own. Based on that, I think the HYLIAN
HAMMER has a good shot at 40%, so I'll roll with that.

The true fun here, however, is the battle for second place. Many
people seem to think it's a total crapshoot, and that any of these
three fine battlers has a good shot at advancing. I respectfully
disagree, but I won't write off the possibility for any of them. I
simply think one of them is a pretty good favorite.

Unfortunately for Mega Man fans, that "pretty good favorite" isn't X.
In the last two rounds, we've seen X lose to Mario despite the plumber
sharing polls with Zelda, Mudkip, and Luigi. If Mario can consistently
beat X despite being hindered by other Nintendo characters, I have a
hard time seeing him suddenly lose here. Some are arguing that Link
will hurt Mario significantly more than those lesser Nintendo dweebs,
thus propelling X to victory. Not only do I disagree, but I actually
think Link will hurt X more. Face it, Link has very
broad-reaching magical SFF powers, and he'll have a lot more overlap
with X than Zelda, Mudkip, or Luigi did. If X is truly part Nintendo
and part badass, then the king of part Nintendo and part badass
will hurt him badly. I actually expect this to be X's worst loss to
Mario (and, therefore, his worst contest performance) yet. He has
proven himself, though, and I think and hope he'll be a fine addition
to future character battles.

If Mario is to be upended, I think it'll be at the hands of Zack Fair.
The sword-wielding FFVII heartthrob has proven himself and has quite a
few cards dealt in his favor here. He has twice now put up an
impressive 30% on Link, which is easily upper midcard territory and
grounds for a "come back to next year's contest FREE" card. However,
that 30% won't be enough against this competition, which is why Zack
must hope both for Link to get busy with SFF and for his own ass to be
boosted via a triple Nintendo fanbase split (if you count X, that is).
I think it's possible, actually. We've already seen characters such as
Big Boss, Mewtwo, and Kirby take full advantage of a triple fanbase
overlap, and to brashly assume Zack won't simply because his
competition is very strong is dangerously overconfident.

While I won't write Zack (or even X) off, at the end of the day, I
still think second place goes to Mario. The 30% Zack has consistently
put on Link is good, but it's nowhere near the 38% Mario has
rattled off twice (once way back when in 2002 and the other in 2007).
In standard, non-Battle Royal matches, Mario has shown to hold up well
against Link's fierce SFF. He still might be in trouble if Zack takes
enough advantage of his "stand out" factor, but I don't think it will
be as significant as what we saw with characters like Big Boss and
Mewtwo. Zack may be a Final Fantasy character amidst Nintendo
powerhouses, but, as I've argued before, he's also a cool sword
wielder sharing a poll with the cool sword wielder. I expect
he'll give us his best performance relative to Link, but I think he'll
fall just short.

Link - 40%
Zack Fair - 20%
Mario - 22%
Mega Man X - 18%

Lopen's Analysis

So I suppose one might make an argument that X could win this one over Mario for third. However, I'm not really buying that one. To me, this is the lightest round SFFwise Mario's had yet, and MMX couldn't get it done the first two times. I mean, Mario's always stood up pretty well against Link's SFF... I'm not saying it doesn't hurt him at all (though one could make a case that this is exactly the case), but when compared to Luigi, or Nintendo being 3/4 of the poll options, it's nothing. Mega Man X should lose by the most he's lost yet, I'm thinking.

So then that brings us to our big battle. Link vs Cloud. Who's got this one? Link is about 4-1 in this series right now, but I'm thinking Cloud can do it. After all, there is that infamous Brawl deboost that everybody's been talking about... and more importantly, Mario's there. Now I just said that Mario won't get hurt that much... and it's true... but I'm not saying Link will be, either. Nono. But he doesn't need to be for Cloud to--

Wait. Wait. What the hell.

Lopen's prediction:
Link - 43.60%
Mario - 24.24%
Mega Man X - 18.10%
Definitely not Cloud - 14.06%

Transience's Analysis

here's a weird match. let's start with some numbers:

Samus Aran 28.8% 41623
Mega Man 18.43% 26641
Cloud Strife 41.23% 59587
Ryu 11.54% 16682
TOTAL VOTES 144533

Mega Man 30.43% 45857
Yoshi 19.13% 28823
Samus Aran 33.1% 49872
Scorpion 17.34% 26126
TOTAL VOTES 150678

as you can see here, the addition of another Nintendo character clearly hurt Samus more than it did Mega Man. take Yoshi out of the equation and Samus improves by 7%.

Yoshi's only a small burden, though. what happens when the other guy is Link, Nintendo's top guy? we're going to find out here. Mega Man clearly overlaps with Link, but it's nothing compared to Mario. Mega Man seems like he isn't affected by Nintendo at all, at least compared to his previous matches. MMX clearly benefitted from the Mario/Zelda overlap, and again with Mario/Luigi. he wouldn't have gotten that close otherwise. if Link significantly hurts Mario, and that's very possible, MMX is going to benefit bigtime.

the only thing stopping me from taking X here is Zero last year. in a match of two big Square characters, Zero did even worse when Link was in the poll. he got killed. if that's the case, Link may have a big day here because he's going to hurt both Mario and X. plus, Link doubled Mega Man up in 2004. we've never seen Mega Man and Mario heads-up but it's tough to imagine him doing better against Mario than he did against Samus, and Samus beat him fairly easily despite Yoshi. Link is a whole different league, but it's tough to see MMX benefitting. besides, Mario did absolutely great last year with Link in the poll and with Galaxy out and a clear picture advantage it's easy to see him doing it again. plus, if people are anti-voting the obvious favourites, they may fall in line behind Mario.

lastly, there's Zack, the most independent guy here. MMX doesn't have that advantage here like he did in the round 2 match with Zelda - there's other options for the non-Nintendo guys, and that's Zack. I can't see him doing much though, he's just not even close to being in Noble Nine territory. he would need Link to SFF both of these guys hard to have a chance here. this may be the quarterfinals, but his toughest competition was Wario and Duke Nukem. he doesn't belong here. I'm voting for him though.

transience's prediction:

Link with 39.99%
Mario with 24.39%
Mega Man X with 21.01%
Zack with 14.61%

Ngamer's Analysis

Well, what do you know- Sonic can still impress! You just need to put about five factors in his favor, and about three factors going against every other option, and a solid pic advantage, and for Smurf to lose his soul to the devil, and then heck, Sonic can almost score 29% of the vote! Well that's wonderful for him, but pretty awful for me... my bracket went down the toilet last night, and now Sonic's desperately pulling the handle on my Oracle season. Got to reverse the trend!

And how will I do that? Why, by picking the opposite of what I've been doing all year and finally putting a little faith in Mario, that's how. Let's hit it.

X-Stats from Round Two
Link - 47.63% (based on '07 Duke)
Zack - 28.59% (based on '07 Duke)
Mario - 36.49% (based on '07 Liquid)
MMX - 31.00% (based on '07 Liquid)

Ehh, both Duke and Liquid were clearly stronger in '08 than what we saw in 2007, but that is countered partially by their collapsing somewhat against the tough competition they ran up against in R3. So all in all these look like pretty reasonable numbers to me. As you see, Zack's got an upward climb ahead of him no matter how you try to tweak that.

On the plus side for Zack, he's got SFF working in his favor here, and in fact it's working overtime. Link's the King of SFF and has already laid a hurting on both Mario and MM, Zack will be the one standing out from the crowd, and Square always brings its A game against strong Nintendo competition, as I've mentioned many times. On the down side... these are REALLY tough competitors, and we've already seen the very dedicated fanbase of MGS crack under this kind of pressure. On the plus side, the FF7 base is about two steps up the rung from MGS... on the down side, Link is about five steps up from Luigi! Sure it would make for a great story, but nay, can't see Zack ever being in contention against Mario tomorrow- I don't think third place is entirely out of reach though, assuming X feels the Nintendo heat and weakens a bit from where we saw him last round.

Regarding Mario v MMX, I'm likewise not buying into the upset hype. X had the win handed to him on a silver platter last round (is there any character who could possibly disadvantage Mario more than his own brother?) and yet he failed me by not taking advantage of it. I'm now convinced that it was Mudkip more than Zelda holding the plumber back in R2, and since Zack is an independent draw like Liquid, I'd be surprised if X manages to get much closer than he did last round.

That leaves us with Link vs Mario, which... shouldn't be much worth talking about, really! The last time we witnessed Link v Mario v FF7 we were shocked that Link was only able to score 62% directly on the Nintendo mascot. I've got to imagine Link extends that percentage at least slightly in this one just because Mario and MM share deeper NES roots, but as I've discussed it would take a pounding more along the lines of the Battle Royale before I'd seriously consider either of those two catching up to him, so he ought to remain fairly safe.

In summary, while I'll admit to this match having excellent triple threat potential, I just don't think we'll get that lucky and the far more likely result is a 2 - 3 - 4 finish that, while fairly close, is never really in doubt. With that in mind, let's see what five minutes of pot stirring will result in.

Link - 38.22%
Mario - 23.33%
Mega Man X - 20.13%
Zack Fair - 18.32%

That looks like a result I have can some real confidence in! Too bad even when I've been able to say that I'm still wrong half the time this season...

Ngamer Says: Link > Mario

Crew Consensus: woo Link > Mario

ZFS | Posted 11/12/2008 10:20:18 PM | message detail | #044 | filter

Woo quarterfinals - only a few more days left of the contest.

Today's match will be kinda interesting to watch, if only to see how Mario's going to hold up against Link. There's an off chance that we get something unexpected with Zack or X stealing second, but I doubt it. This is more about finding out whether or not Mario's going to be cut out to be considered for a shot at the finals. He'll either hold up like he did last year, and way back in 2002, or he'll collapse like one might expect him to.

But I'm leaning toward the former. Unless the so-called 'deboost' this year has made Mario more prone to lose his fanbase to Link, I don't see a whole lot of reason for him to collapse against Link. Check out last year - he put up 23% with Link and Sephiroth in the poll. It's hard to argue with that, but if you want to, there's a match that, while pretty irrelevant to today, still points to Mario holding up against Link - the 2002 final.

I have seen some arguments that X could hold up better against Link, but I'm not buying that. Sure, there's more overlap between Link/Mario, but that doesn't mean Mario's going to necessarily suffer more. All you have to do is look at that Link/MM match to see what Link does to Mega Man - that was a worse beatdown than Mario's ever gotten from Link. There's Zero last year, too, but I can excuse that one for Zero being a clear fourth place.

Zack's in that place today. The past few days I've figured he'd be a distant last, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt after seeing what happens when you have someone who stands out, although Zack's not so lucky to be in Kirby's or Mewtwo's position. He stands out, but not to any crazy degree. I think he'll pull a Liquid here and sneak into third, but not have a shot at second. Zack proved he was legit, but this competition is far above his level, and I wouldn't be surprised if he is a distant last.

Let's see how this goes.

Prediction: Link - 41% ; Mario - 24% ; Zack - 18% ; X - 17%

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"You don't have to worry about me."

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/12/2008 10:20:27 PM | message detail | #045 | filter

Whoa, Moltar, do you have to reformat all of the analyses I send you? If so, I'll try to send them in a different way...
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Yoblazer: http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/3699/thegamefaqsticketxr8.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

DpObliVion | Posted 11/12/2008 10:22:46 PM | message detail | #046 | filter

Whoa, Link > Mario all across the board....

DpOblivion's Unofficial Rambling Analysis:

OMG, look at this, I actually have everyone right in this match! Seems like stringing together multiple correct predictions in a row has become a rarity since I got Division 1 and 2 perfect in Round 1. I didn't even have a single all-green division in Round 2, but I got this all-green last round.

This match, of course, is all about SFF, and with Link in the poll certain to take 1st, 2nd place is pretty much up for grabs. Sure, you would think Link would SFF Mario to hell and drop him out of contention....

But this is Link we're talking about. Mega Man tends to draw on the Nintendo fanbase, so Link could SFF MMX to hell. Zack stands out as the FF character, but how true is his strength? He rode an incredibly easy path up to this point, and now that he's in the face of very stiff competition besides Link, will he hold up or will he fold?

It is probably easy to agree upon that in terms of strength, it's Mario > MMX > Zack, but that would also be the inequality for how hard they'll be hit by Link's SFF. I went with MMX to take 2nd here, but I am having my doubts. Mario has showed in the past, based on a 2004 match between Link and Mega Man (is MMX stronger, though?), that he fairs a bit better against Link. However, with this four-way format, Link may hurt Mario more than MMX....but will MMX now be suffering double-SFF from both Link and Mario?

Also, just the other day, Mewtwo surprised me by taking 2nd easily in a match where he stood out after he looked so abysmal the previous round, so even though I have serious questions about Zack's strength, could the fact that he stands out be enough, as Mario and MMX battle each other and SFF from Link? Does Link curbstomp all three so much that Mario advances just on his own strength? Or am I correct in my original prediction that Zack will fold in this group, while Link SFFs Mario more than MMX to allow MMX to take 2nd? After all, look how close MMX was to Mario with Zelda in the poll.

I really have no idea how this will pan out, and it seems no matter what kind of prediction I decide upon is wrong, so I'm just going to stick with my bracket and my original gut decision.

(For the record, if I had no bracket or gut decision I had made prior to the start of the contest, I would probably put Mario in 2nd.)

Dp's bracket says: Link > Mega Man X

Dp's prediction is: Link > Mega Man X

Confidence: 0%

Link - 41.26%
Mega Man X - 20.17%
Mario - 19.36%
Zack - 19.21%

God this match is ****ing crazy.

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:29:00 PM | message detail | #047 | filter

War13104's Analysis

Here we are, the final sixteen. Fun fact: Of last contest's final 16, 5 have already fallen. Our five newcomers to the final 16 are

Weighted Companion Cube
Mega Man X
Zack Fair
Kirby
Mewtwo

Congrats to these 5, for taking advantage of SFF or weak competition to make it to the final rounds!

Or maybe some of these guys really are that strong, who knows. On to today's match!

Link - Yeah, you're gonna win again. Easily. Knock yourself out.

Zack Fair - 22% looks good, until you realize that Zack failed to come close to doubling Duke Nukem.

Mario - Against most other duos, Mario would be a lock for fourth thanks to Link. His opponents are not most duos.

Mega Man X - X has come close to the brass ring twice now. Is third time the charm, or will Triple H bury Jeff Ha-err...Link bury X like he did to Zero not too long ago?

This match is about three characters proving they belong. If Mario advances here, he makes up for faltering all throughout the first three rounds. If X advances, he proves that he's a true contender. If Zack advances here, Duke Nukem will win the entire contest after Duke Nukem Forever comes out. If Link doesn't advance here, then I must laugh.

But in all seriousness, this is Zack's chance to prove himself. His toughest opponent all contest has been Duke Nukem, and that was with an icon in the polls to bury the Duke even farther. However, Duke did better against Link, Zack, and Altair than he did against Sonic, Gordon Freeman, and Sub-Zero. I find it hard to believe Zack's going to be able to stay above 15%, let alone reach 20%. Yes, I'm saying Cecil is just that weak. Sorry pal. Remember to nominate Final Fantasy IV for the Games Contest!

Mario, on the other hand, has been dealing with Nintendo leeching off of him all contest long, yet he's still looked decent. Yes, Link is a much greater force than Luigi, Zelda, and Mudkip combined, but Mario doesn't need to pull 30% to advance here. Honestly, this feels like Cloud/Squall/Sora/Mewtwo, except Mario and X are a lot more independent of Link than Squall and Sora are to Cloud.

X, my friend, I want to believe in you. I truly do. I'm going to vote for you, but I was wrong about both you and Classic last round, and I want to be wrong again! GO DO IT, X! I'M CHEERING FOR YOU! (GO MARIO, I THINK YOU CAN BEAT X!)

War's Prediction

Link: 42.25%
Mario: 23.88%
Mega Man X: 19.25%
Zack Fair: 14.62%

War's vote: X, come on buddy prove my prediction wrong!
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~War~ The Cream of Transexual Ex Girlfriend Fanboyism ~War~

paraboxx | Posted 11/12/2008 11:08:38 PM | message detail | #048 | filter

Huh, only one Link > X pick and it was unofficial.

Link > Mario's looking pretty good so far, though...

Whoa, Moltar, do you have to reformat all of the analyses I send you? If so, I'll try to send them in a different way...

Eh, it takes less than a minute to do it usually. I was just really pressed for time tonight.
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hmm
well then

th3l3fty | Posted 11/13/2008 1:14:21 AM | message detail | #050 | filter

close match
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris

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