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Character Battle VII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/5/2008 10:53:19 PM | message detail | #401 | filter

X>Liquid: 1
X>Luigi: 1
Mario>X: 4
X> Mario: 2

Analysis Crew is crusin' for a brusin' yet again, I see!

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10

YoAriel33 | Posted 11/6/2008 2:59:21 AM | message detail | #402 | filter

Yo gets the point for Kratos and Jill

almost as good as Obama imho
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Yoblazer: VOTE: http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/3699/thegamefaqsticketxr8.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2008 10:03:22 AM | message detail | #403 | filter

Man, Liquid's going to end up looking good at the end, no matter what. He's getting about 40% on Mario right now. Sure, SFF and the day vote is gonna hurt him, but that's good.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)

Link..................51.52% 74138
Zack Fair..........22.09% 31794
Duke Nukem.....14.45% 20797
Altair.................11.94% 17184
TOTAL VOTES..............143913

What Happened - woo altair bringing in the votes again. Link continues to dominate, and Zack easily takes second.

Why it Happened - Not many expected Duke and Altair to be tougher than Wario/Zidane, so Zack had no trouble beating them. With Link sucking up all the casual support, they were pretty much screwed.

What Will Happen - Alright Zack, you get to face a REAL fourpack next round!

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay everyone (except Lopen)!

Yoblazer - 33
Ngamer - 32
HM - 30
Tran - 30
Moltar - 30
Guest - 27
Lopen - 24

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Yo gets the point for Link and Altair, HM gets the point for Zack, and Ngamer NAILS Duke

Yoblazer - 41
Ngamer - 36
HM - 35
Moltar - 32
Tran - 31
Guest (War (2), KP (2), Dp, Justin (2), greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai, Klennex, Luis (2), Scott, Soul (2), Leon (3), Ed, Luster (3), Zylo) - 26
Lopen - 20
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hmm
well then

LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2008 10:51:07 AM | message detail | #405 | filter

Whoa, hey, NGamer did have a perfect Duke prediction.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)

transience | Posted 11/6/2008 10:57:45 AM | message detail | #406 | filter

man, I was close before I missed a week. time for an epic comeback!
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg

MasterMoltar | Posted 11/6/2008 2:44:59 PM | message detail | #407 | filter

reading tran's post made me realize i gave him points in the Prediction Challenge when he didn't actually send any write-ups

'whoops'
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master
moltar

Lopen | Posted 11/6/2008 8:45:14 PM | message detail | #408 | filter

Points for not giving analyses, huh? Are you giving me a hint Moltar?
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe

Moltar's Analysis

Laptop still down. Don't have the time to write a proper analysis.

Should be two seperate matches going on here, Sanus/Vincent and Ganon/Gordon. Samus showed last round that she can still look good with Ganon, so I think she'll beat Vincent out here.

Samus - 34% :: Vincent - 30% :: Ganondorf - 19% :: Gordon - 17%

HM's Analysis

Great showing for Mario yesterday - got a bigger win than he did last round. He's shaping up to a semifinal showing, and maybe further if there's not a Block in the way. Should be good.

As for today's match, it should be pretty tame. The only real question is whether or not Vincent can somehow manage to take advantage of a 'split' fanbase between Samus/Ganon to steal first. I'm doubting it with the way Samus did last round - she didn't looked phased at all by Ganon's presence. She'll be affected by Ganon, but not enough for it to matter. Vincent's strong, but Samus is too far above what he's capable of doing.

Gordon might be the real surprise of the match if he can pull in low-20s and take third place. I'm thinking he'll end up in last, but it wouldn't shock me with Gordon - his fanbase seems really static. If they voted for him last round, they'll probably do it again here.

But yeah, Samus wins, Vincent takes second. Bring on Crono/Block.

Prediction: Samus - 33% ; Vincent - 29% ; Ganondorf - 20% ; Gordon - 18%

Vote: Samus

Yoblazer's Analysis

The fact that I'm starting to honestly forget about these means I'm starting to care less about the contest, which in turn means my bracket is dead. It's all a labor of love now, folks! Unfortunately, the contests are a bit harder to love in this random format, but I'll soldier on like a defeated drone. Anyway, I doubt this division final match between Samus, Ganondorf, Vincent, and Gordon Freeman gets too interesting, but it's not like this format hasn't surprised us before.

The two winners are as un-opaque as a glass window made by the finest glass window maker in the window making capital of the world, Hamilton, Canada.

http://www.citywindow.com/contactus.php

If you look through these excellent windows, it will be quite easy to spot these same two winners, Samus and Vincent. Ganondorf and Gordon, god bless em, but their windows are caked with dirt, mud, and bird crap (which speaks VOLUMES as to the weird angles in which these birds must have been crapping). Gordon is too weak to make a charge, and Ganon lost to Vinnie 1v1 a couple years ago, so he has no hope now with Samus SFFing him (however slightly) through her superior window.

Any drama today will be generated by Vincent and his possible run to first place. He's not as strong as Samus, but he could take advantage of the Samus/Ganon split and surprise some people. I can't say I'm expecting it, but it wouldn't surprise me all the same. While Vincent seems to be one of the few capable of such an upset (he made good on his chance against Crono last year), Samus has looked very impressive, especially in the last round. I expect Ganon to be bit with a bit more Phazon-powered SFF this time around (similarly to what happened with Tifa a few days ago), and that should be more than enough to put her over the top.

In the reaches of space, below the surface of planet Zeb...

Wait a minute, I'll be voting for Gordon! Sorry, bounty hunter of my heart, but you'll have to wait for the next round!

Samus Aran - 34%
Ganondorf - 19%
Vincent Valentine - 29%
Gordon Freeman - 18%

Lopen's Analysis

Meanwhile, on the other side of the world... Vincent was going out for a walk. "Gee this sure is wonderful" said Vincent, skipping. "Isn't it absolutely darling" replied the jovial Gordon Freeman.

Suddenly, an evil pigman appeared from the darkness. "Hahaha, I am Ganondorf, the other evil meat."

"Oh no, who ever will save us???" cried Vincent. Gordon Freeman shrieked, "oh dear, HELPPPP!" They held each other tight and closed their eyes, hoping the evil pigman would go away.

*Boom* a missle collided with the evil meat's head. "Haha you need silver arrows to slay me" Ganondorf proclaimed triumphantly. "Haha those missiles were made from the bodies of baby silver arrows and coated in Master Sword, you have fallen" retorted Samus. And so Ganondorf died.

"Come, dears, let's go get some tea." said Samus. "Yay!" squealed Gordon and Vincent. And so they all went to get tea. Gordon Freeman, being a nerd, was allergic to tea, and thusly died.

Lopen's prediction:
Samus - 34.01%
Vincent Valentine - 29.33%
Gordon Freeman - 20.33%
Ganondorf - 16.33%

Transience's Analysis

okay, uh...

Samus and Vincent are taking first and second here, but it's tough to say in which order and even tougher to provide any reasoning for one over the other. I guess we can do it this way: Samus got 40% on SFFed Ganondorf, Frog and Nightmare. Vincent got 40% on Scorpion, Falco and Gordon Freeman.

which is more impressive?

uh... I don't know. one thing I do know though is that Samus didn't look to be dragged down by Ganondorf at all. if it's someone equivalent to nerfed Ganondorf -- say, Knuckles or something -- does Samus get 45%? I don't think so. if Samus really didn't get hurt by Ganondorf, Samus should pass through here with ease. she's a good ways ahead of Vincent and this format seems good for her for whatever reason.

as for the hideous ZSS picture, I'll just say that I don't really believe in ZSS killing Samus like it seemed to and just think that's a Really Weird Match. kinda like that Pikachu/Dante match last year. we get one every year. I don't think it'll make much of a difference.

Freeman could beat Ganondorf here, but I don't think too many people care!

dear god, those pictures
I miss the days of Ceej pics
outrage was more fun

transience's prediction:

Samus with 33.56%
Vincent with 30.89%
Ganondorf with 19.00%
Gordon Freeman with 16.55%

Ngamer's Analysis

Ugh, really disappointed in myself for last night. I knew I was being foolish by discounting Mudkip's impact on Mario's R2 performance, but I chose to ignore that factor in favor of supporting my bracket and its MMX upset pick. Yeah, Mario has really redeemed himself with this performance, and I was a fool to not see it coming... oh well, I'll make it up to him by taking him over MMX and Zack next time around! The crazy thing though is, check this out, the Mario Bros are pulling down 49% of the vote today! If you'd told me that Mario would be finishing close to 33% in this one I'd have assumed that meant he'd squashed his little brother down out of the teens; very impressive to accomplish this despite L holding on so well.

Let's move on to a brand new match where I'll be able to either... trust Nintendo, OR continue backing my bracket. Again. D'oh!

X-Stats from Round Two

Samus - 30.55% (based on Frog '07)
Ganon - 23.21% (based on Frog '07)
Vincent - 41.67% (based on Scorpion '07)
Gordon - 31.62% (based on Scorpion '07)

Look out Samus, Freeman's gunnin for you! But seriously folks... CT has clearly risen, so I don't buy Frog still being at the fodder line as he was last year, and Scorpion was very obviously a shadow of his former self in that matchup, so VV and GF need a solid drop. Even so, it's hard to argue that Valentine looked like the strongest character out of the group just based on their showings in that round.

Let's start with the Last Free Man. Kudos to him for a very surprising, very enjoyable run this season, but it ends here, and in fact I don't see any way for him to stay out of the basement. His more dedicated fanbase ought to allow him to outperform Duke's ~15% from the day before, and I'm expecting Nintendo fans to jump ship to Samus moreso this time around since she'll be trying to fight out Vincent, but there's no way she pushes Ganon down far enough for Gordon to give him a serious run. Then again, I've been betting against Freeman all season long, and look how well its worked out for me so far...

I still hold to the unpopular opinion that Ganon could give Vincent a decently interesting run for his money 1v1, but this format does wonders for fan favorites like Auron and VV and so the King of Evil would have no shot at second place tomorrow, even assuming Samus wouldn't be around to damage his Nintendo appeal. Oh well, better than going out looking like a total pig, '07-style!

The true battle is going to be between Samus and Vincent, and I think it will provide us with some real fireworks! Now I've been saying all season how good Samus is in this format, how she even held up well against Link, how she beat MM despite a major pic disadvantage, how her appealing design can keep her in matches even if the rest of the company is disappointing. So why would I bet against her now? The Legend of Zelda, that's why. In terms of intrinsic strength in this format, the gap between Mario and MMX is probably pretty similar to the one between Samus and Vincent. Yet when Mario (a guy many have called "The King of SFF") ran up against Zelda he ran up against an immovable object- the strength of the LoZ fanbase on this site refuses to let their series fold. Heck, even Cloud and Mewtwo found this out to some extent, and Midna is miles apart from Ganondorf!

That's why I see Samus being between a rock and a hard place in this one. New Square has looked very good, Vincent is going to bring the heat as soon as the Power Hour comes to a close, and she's going to need to start stealing percentage from the Zelda fanbase in order to not get buried during the overnight... which I don't think she can do. Ganon probably sticks a little above that 20% mark that Zelda clung to last time around, which means Samus is only going to be able to reach the low 30s, a position that will leave her very much in play for a guy with independent, NN-breaking strength like VV.

So if Vincent gets a large enough lead on Sammy during the dead hours to withstand her morning vote and come back for an SNV victory, and Ganon holds serve with the Zelda base and Gordon's strong base continues to stick with him, we'll see something close to *gets out the pot, stirs a bit*

Vincent Valentine - 31.62%
Samus Aran - 31.48%
Ganondorf - 20.93%
Gordon Freeman - 15.97%

That looks... pretty respectable, actually!

Ngamer Says: Vincent > Samus

Crew Consensus: Majority sez Samus > Vincent

DpObliVion | Posted 11/6/2008 10:10:00 PM | message detail | #412 | filter

No guest? Whee.

DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

Okay, let's see, what can I do to convince myself that I'll be getting this upset special right, despite Samus' ass-kicking last round....

I really thought the Legend of Zelda villain would hold up better against the Metroid star. I was right on Zelda, but wrong on Ganondorf. Hmm... Anyway, Vincent certainly looked good last round, too, though without dealing with SFF. Still though, Vincent is not supposed to be far off the Noble Nine's level, and Samus is dealing with Ganondorf again. It's time for a stretch here....shooter SFF with Gordon Freeman!

Not buying it? Okay, fine. Looking at last round opponents though, did Samus have an easier road? Scorpion should easily beat Nightmare in the mainstream fighter category, even with that awful pic. Chrono Trigger characters suck in this format, while Gordon Freeman seems to strive. Plus Vincent also had a Nintendo presence in his match.

So, the way I see it, Vincent dealt with three separate mainstream fanbases, while Samus only dealt with two weaker fanbases, plus the SFF. Vincent's 40% starts to look a bit more impressive now.

Oh, what the hell. Bracket bias FTW, and Long Live SFF!

But now I'm running the numbers for my final prediction percentage, and I just don't think I can give Vincent the percentage to get past Samus....

Dp's bracket says: Vincent > Samus

Dp's prediction is: Samus > Vincent

Samus - 32%
Vincent - 28%
Ganondorf - 22%
Gordon - 18%

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

XxSoulxX | Posted 11/6/2008 10:14:40 PM | message detail | #413 | filter

That match is tomorrow?

>_>

oops. Thought I had another day.

Vincent > Gordon > Samus > Ganondorf

Samus/Ganondorf, for some reason, get the Dante/Leon effect for this match only, and eliminate each other.
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Good Times,
Great Memories

satai_delenn | Posted 11/6/2008 10:19:07 PM | message detail | #414 | filter

Raiden should have been in this match, so that he could have gotten to the nerd before he died from his tea allergy...!

Lopen entirely should have started this style of analysis earlier. Just imagine what his Sephiroth one would have been like.

...wait, no, don't. >_>
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Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE!

Lopen | Posted 11/6/2008 10:20:48 PM | message detail | #415 | filter

Just imagine what his Sephiroth one would have been like.

...wait, no, don't. >_>

We've still got this round to look forward to. Now with only sweaty men and an animal to keep him company, I can hardly wait!
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe

transients | Posted 11/6/2008 10:23:10 PM | message detail | #416 | filter

outta here
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zizzy

RaeSaraneth | Posted 11/6/2008 10:40:41 PM | message detail | #417 | filter

Lopen, that was an extremely interesting write up. lmao :D
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^_^

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/6/2008 10:42:46 PM | message detail | #418 | filter

time for a re-tag
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CB7 Score: 204/272
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg

HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/7/2008 12:22:40 AM | message detail | #419 | filter

I'm surprised nobody took Gordon > Ganon here
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif
http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png

Lopen | Posted 11/7/2008 2:35:53 AM | message detail | #420 | filter

Thank you, Rae, I built it that way.

I'm surprised nobody took Gordon > Ganon here

Do I not count or something? Who cares if it was random insanity, I back that percentage with facts that I deemed were not worthy of elaboration.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe

HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/7/2008 2:44:05 AM | message detail | #421 | filter

Do I not count or something? Who cares if it was random insanity, I back that percentage with facts that I deemed were not worthy of elaboration.

Oh sorry, I missed your analysis for some reason
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif
http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png

Lopen | Posted 11/7/2008 2:44:48 AM | message detail | #422 | filter

Your loss...!
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe

Ngamer64 | Posted 11/7/2008 5:10:19 AM | message detail | #423 | filter

Ganon, you are embarrassing me so hard right now. Just get out of my sight.

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Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/
Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com

XxSoulxX | Posted 11/7/2008 4:24:44 PM | message detail | #424 | filter

I did too! >_>
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Good Times,
Great Memories

RaeSaraneth | Posted 11/7/2008 8:34:42 PM | message detail | #425 | filter

Poor Ganondorf.
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^_^

Moltar's Analysis

Woo another analysis from random computer #3432

So, save_us.RED pulled through last round, and with a weaker group here, he should win again.

save_us.RAT time! Pikachu's gotta do what Meta Knight and Ryu failed to do. I mean, Alucard shouldn't be a problem now that no one is here to hurt Pikachu. In fact, Alucard will probably look pretty bad here.

(don't get your hopes up though L's got this)

Crono - 33% :: L-Block - 29 :: Pikachu - 21% :: Alucard 17%

Yoblazer's Analysis

L-Block's back time to throw all logic and reason out the window. After going in as somewhat of a favorite in his second round match, L-Block did something he has never done before. He flopped relative to expectations and lost to Crono by over 6,000 votes. I couldn't believe it, but then again, I didn't really care. Now, like a loveless couple locked in an eternity of crappyass monotony, Crono and L-Block are back, and they've brought Pikachu and Alucard along for the ride.

It seems clear now that this is a very different L-Block from last year. The angular one immediately attacked this contest with an incredible first round performance. Many of us felt he had cemented himself as a two-time champ right then and there. However, he dropped the ball in the second round, finishing illogically far back of Crono. Different block for a different year. This L-Block has more "legitimate" strength and trends. As such, he doesn't seem to be as big a threat to defend his title, but he still has a relatively picture-perfect path for it, so we'll see.

For now, though, let's just focus on this match. Even if L-Block does demonstrate some improvement here (I'm expecting him to), he still lost too handily last round for me to give this newer, more normal block the win today. He'll be closer, but not close enough; Crono still takes it.

That leaves only Pikachu and Alucard. Pikachu beat the Castlevania star by a percentage point despite being hindered by Captain Falcon, so I'd expect a much easier win for him this time around (the fact that the rat stands out amongst Crono and Alucard shouldn't hurt, either). Initially, I thought of pegging him significantly below what Ryu managed last round (23.85%), but now that I think about it, he has no reason to be so far behind. Ryu only managed an extrapolated 59% on Meta Knight this year, and that's a performance I can sadly see this stronger Pikachu matching. Alucard finishes in a distant last, gawd dammit.

Ah well, at least I can take solace in the fact that I may be the only Board 8er intellectual enough to vote for Alucard while blasting "I am the Wind" when the clock strikes nine. hey wait

Just like the wind,
I've always been
Drifting high up in the sky that never ends
Through thick and thin,
I always win
'Cause I would fight both life and death to save a friend

I face my destiny every day I live
And the best in me is all I have to give

Just like the sun (Just like the sun)
When my day's done
Sometimes I don't like the person I've become
Is the enemy within a thousand men?
Should I walk the path if my world's so dead ahead?

Is someone testing me every day I live?
Well, the best in me is all I have to give

I can pretend (I can pretend)
I am the wind (I am the wind)
And I don't know if I will pass this way again
All things must end
Goodbye, my friend
Think of me when you see the sun or feel the wind

I am the wind,
I am the sun
And one day we'll all be one

I am the wind,
I am the sun
And one day we'll all be one

I am the wind,
I am the sun
And one day we'll all be one

I am the wind,
I am the sun
One day we'll all be one...

Crono - 31%
L-Block - 29%
Pikachu - 23%
Alucard - 17%

Lopen's Analysis

Alucard gestured as he spoke, "I know what you feel. Indeed, I have been hunted, and though they would not imprison me, it is only because they lacked the capacity and compassion to do so." His companion remained silent, only nodding from across the table in agreement. "However, what is important to remember is that whatever happens, we must not hate them."

The look on his cohort's face quickly distorted into one of bewilderment, and he turned his head to the side. Indeed, he, understandably, had no ill feelings towards the humans, but he hadn't expected such sentiment from Alucard. Alucard needed no words to understand this confusion. "The lot of humans is already a difficult one, as I'm sure you well know. We needn't bring upon them any more trouble than they bring upon themselves. Conflict only breeds conflict, if you cannot live with them at least do them no harm."

His companion could stay silent no longer. He slammed his small hand on the desk, his shout of "PIKA!!!" being the proverbial exclamation point to drive the frustration in his statement home. Alucard didn't expect this reaction, "Do you not serve them? Why would you thin--"

"Pikaaa..." Pika cut him off with a disapproving shake of his head. He began to gesture wildly, but Alucard, through some way, perhaps from their round together, understood. "Hmmm... so what you mean is... it is true that I should not bring harm, but to resist not at all causes nothing to change." Alucard turned to Crono and the L-Block. "What say you here?"

Crono and L-Block both gave an enthusiastic "..." in reply. Crono then smirked and pushed the L-Block aside, revealing a grim warning inscribed upon the wall.

NO TALKING. PUNISHABLE BY DEATH

"What." was all Alucard could muster before Death himself swooped in and whisked both he and Pikachu out of the establishment. Crono pumped his fist in triumph. "...!" he gloated to L-Block. "...", L-Block replied, emotions unmoving. What a buzzkiller, that guy.

Lopen's prediction:
Crono - 32.02%
L-Block - 26.54%
Pikachu - 21.40%
Alucard - 20.04%

Transience's Analysis

people have turned on the Block so hard that they're cheering for Pikachu.

there hasn't been a funnier outrage than when Pikachu upended Dante and Leon last year. good god, the quotes. now we're all SAVE_US.RAT and it's like huh???

Pikachu has a chance here.. but not much of one. Ryu's stronger than Pikachu and he didn't really come too close. the only thing an L-Block hater can grasp onto is that L looked kind of ordinary last round - 4% less than his R1 match. maybe it isn't static anymore now that it's got some haters? it's a hopeful argument more than one with any real fact behind it, but it's possible, I suppose, that come R4 he gets knocked out by Crono or Vincent. the problem is that there isn't a weak link there, nor is there here. well, Alucard is definitely the weak one here - Pikachu finally isn't held back by a fifth-tier Nintendo character - but Pikachu isn't strong enough to capitalize. L-Block dances through to R4.

Crono should take first for one more round. yay!

transience's prediction:

Crono - 35.55%
L-Block - 27.51%
Pikachu - 23.55%
Alucard - 13.39%

Ngamer's Analysis

RAGE. That's twice in a row where I've picked with my bracket instead of with my head. THIS time around, though, I'm placing the blame for my failure firmly on Ganon's head. This is SAMUS, not Mario or Link- how do you crumble to her like a total chump after watching Zelda and Midna hold up so well to better competition the last two rounds? If he'd just not made a complete fool of himself and pulled down the 21% that I wanted this match could have been right back into that tossup range where I felt good about taking a flier on Vince. Ugh.

In other news, what the junk Gordon- how do you fall from 24 to only 18 when swapping out Scorpion and Falco for Samus and Ganon? I knew your fanbase was hardcore, but that's just nuts!

Oh well, at least I won't be able to continue killing my preds with bracket favoritism tonight, since I had Ryu advancing out of this one. Let's do a quick check to see if there's any real shot of killing off that L joke in the next 25 hours, shall we?

X-Stats from Round Two

Crono - 32.90% (based on '07 Ryu)
L-Block - 30.51% (based on '07 Ryu)
Pikachu - 20.38% (based on '07 Arthas)
Alucard - 20.02% (based on '07 Arthas)

The Crono and Block numbers look okay, which makes sense since Ryu is Mr. Consistency, after all. The Pika/Aly stuff is way off due to Diablo hurting Arthas so badly last year, but eh, we should keep in mind that Pika wasn't going to look good in any numbers so far this season regardless thanks to Ike and then Falcon holding him back. The King of all Pokemon gets to unleash his full Nintendo potential tonight... but will it be enough?

Let's start with Alucard. I sure hope he amended his Plan for this season to mention getting bumped off in a match where he's never remotely in contention for getting out of the basement, because that's all he'll be able to accomplish here. Oh well, at least he increased his Contest stock this season by easily outclassing Arthas and going toe to toe with an LFFed Pikachu; he's a vet that's still well worth seeing in these brackets, so no shame in that.

Moving on to Crono, a guy I continue to gain confidence in every day. With Ryu out of the way and the older SNES-loving voters most likely swinging his way, I don't think the CT star should have any problem increasing his margin of victory over the Block. With the way Vincent dropped the ball today, I could easily see Crono impressing us enough tonight to set himself up as a slight favorite in the long-awaited R4 rematch between the Square stars. But will that rematch actually mean anything, or is L-Block going to rain on the parade and turn it into a "just for pride" third place battle?

That all depends on Pika riding Nintendo's recent wave of good performances to a second straight season of shocking bracket advancements. Can he do it? Short answer: no. Long answer: I give the electric rat a ton of credit in this format... he's been held back by Ike and Falcon and Luigi and triple RPG LFF, but the one time he was given free reign to flex his muscles he shocked the world by pounding Dante and Leon straight up. Part of that was his surely his classic R/B/Y sprite coming into play, but hey, he's once again rocking that baby in a few pics for tomorrow, so I'm certainly expecting to see a Pikachu closer to peak strength than we've ever seen since that infamous '07 result.

So why can't I pick him? For one, Alucard (like Ammy before him) is a legit character with a pretty diehard fanbase that, so he isn't going to shrivel up and die tomorrow, which will leave fewer non-joke votes to go around for Crono and Pika. And for two, the match pictures for this round are ridic. A Tetris piece at a presidential debate, wearing a tie behind a podium? If that doesn't scream "lol support the joke vote!" I don't know what does. I think part of the reason for L's growing success in '07 was the internet rallying behind him as he went along, certainly, but that another significant portion of his strength came from looking so silly as the pictures got more dramatic. Like remember Mt. Rushmore, with the "faces" of Link/Cloud/Snake/L carved in? That's the kind of stuff that I'd imagine does a joke character wonders.

Alright, so with Crono looking good but L refusing to fold to Pika, while Alucard holds up decently well, we get something along the lines of... *stirs after potting for a bit*

Crono - 32.07%
L-Block - 26.95%
Pikachu - 24.04%
Alucard - 16.94%

Alright Nintendo, bet against you two days in a row... time to prove me right with another good showing today!

Ngamer Says: Crono > L-Block

Crew Consensus: Crono > L, cmon pika

ZFS | Posted 11/7/2008 10:29:21 PM | message detail | #430 | filter

Make this quick. Crono comes in first after last round's showing, making L look a bit more 'normal' than last year, and L-Block comes in second. As much as I'd like to see Pikachu pull off the upset and take him out, I can't see it happening. Alucard won't do a whole lot here - it'll be a good show for him to be above 15%, I think.

but maybe just maybe come on pikachu save us

Prediction: Crono - 33% ; L-Block - 28% ; Pikachu - 25% ; Alucard - 14%
Vote: Crono

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DpObliVion | Posted 11/7/2008 10:30:33 PM | message detail | #431 | filter

DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

It's back....L-Block....augh....

Slight hope! Crono beat L-Block last round! Hopefully one of the newcomers who should provide tougher competition can beat him and knock him out!

Yeah, except those newcomers are Pikachu and Alucard. I'd have more faith in Ryu knocking out L-Block, but he failed last round. There is hope next round, though! Hopefully....

Dp's bracket says: Crono > Ryu

Dp's prediction is: Crono > L-Block

Crono - 30.50%
L-Block - 28%
Pikachu - 23%
Alucard - 18.50%

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/7/2008 10:34:01 PM | message detail | #432 | filter

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/7/2008 10:38:15 PM | message detail | #433 | filter

Luster Soldier's (Unofficial) Analysis

Past round 1 and 2 performance

Crono
Round 1: 1st place (49.22%) against Amaterasu (26.56%), Frank West (16.17%), and Kaim Argonar (8.05%)
Round 2: 1st place (32.09%) against L-Block (27.74%), Ryu (23.85%), and Amaterasu (16.32%)

L-Block
Round 1: 1st place (31.81%) against Ryu (31.57%), Meta Knight (22.61%), and The Dog (14.01%)
Round 2: 2nd place (27.74%) against Crono (32.09%), Ryu (23.85%), and Amaterasu (16.32%)

Pikachu
Round 1: 1st place (32.15%) against Arthas Menethil (26.69%), Ike (25.94%), and Spy (15.22%)
Round 2: 1st place (30.30%) against Alucard (29.26%), Arthas Menethil (21.21%), and Captain Falcon (19.23%)

Alucard
Round 1: 1st place (35.54%) against Captain Falcon (28.39%), Diddy Kong (18.92%), and Kratos Aurion (17.14%)
Round 2: 2nd place (29.26%) against Pikachu (30.30%), Arthas Menethil (21.21%), and Captain Falcon (19.23%)

Here we are, the third L-Block match of this contest. First place should belong to Crono, who easily took first last round.

L-Block had a rather lousy performance last round, failing to obtain the standard 28-30% that should have been expected of him. In both L-Block matches from this contest, he appears to have more legit voting patterns and doesn't drop off really hard in percentage after the Power Hour ends. L-Block got about 44000 votes in round 1 and only got about 39000 in round 2. Next, there are about 7000 less brackets having L-Block advance to round 3 than there are for round 2. The loss of bracket support for L-Block going to round 3 correlates pretty heavily with the drop off in votes received by L-Block in round 2, compared to the votes he received in round 1. This would suggest that most of L-Block's strength is coming from bracket voters, rather than those voting for it because of the joke. Could very well make sense here, as most people have said the joke isn't funny anymore.

With L-Block's horrible round 2 performance, some people thought JokeFAQs was about to collapse hard in round 2. Sandbag did collapse pretty hard, but he just doesn't have L-Block level strength like WCC does. Sandbag's collapse was nothing surprising at all. WCC proved the JokeFAQs collapse wrong here by obtaining the standard 28-30% that is expected of joke characters with L-Block level strength. WCC even managed to stay above 30% for over 2 hours, something L-Block couldn't reach once after the first 5 minute update of the match. L-Block has a weaker fourpack this time, so he should improve on the 27.74% he got last round.

Pikachu is L-Block's biggest threat here and what has me most worried here is Pikachu's surprisingly good board vote, which could give L-Block a scare in the Power Hour. But Pikachu is a lot weaker than Ryu, a character that L-Block had knocked out last round. Pikachu is unlikely to take the lead over L-Block, but should keep it close. After the Power Hour, Pikachu will collapse and L-Block must use the FNV to build up a lead big enough to withstand Pikachu's BSV and ASV, which should be weakened a bit since this is a weekend match. Since Crono is the strongest character in this match, he'll probably rob a small amount of Pikachu's support, but not much as what happened with Ryu. I highly doubt Pikachu will beat out L-Block for second place.

Alucard is the last remaining character, who is absolutely not a threat to L-Block. He'll come in last place.

Luster Soldier's prediction: Crono - 31.81%, L-Block - 28.39%, Pikachu - 21.82%, Alucard - 17.98%
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~

WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/7/2008 10:45:17 PM | message detail | #434 | filter

Oh wow sorry Moltar, didn't see you on AIM...'whoops'

War13104 (acting as Guest, I assume)'s Very Quick, undetailed Analysis

I've seen more anger on the board in the last few days than I've ever seen before. You would think Sarah Palin is going to be the next U.S. President. We need someone to unite us, to focus our anger, and rage away from politics. That someone, is L-Block. While many cheer for the rat to save us from L-Block, only L-Block can save us from ourselves. That said, this is actually a pretty terrible match-up for L, as he's facing three traditional board vote beasts. Will it be enough to stop the Block? Hopefully not. The Block, however, will look absolutely terrible, thanks to Pika Pika.

War13104's very quick prediction:

Crono: 30.60%
L-Block: 26.25%
Pikachu: 25.15%
Aluward: 17.00%
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~War~ The Cream of Transexual Ex Girlfriend Fanboyism ~War~

WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/7/2008 11:27:25 PM | message detail | #435 | filter

Err...I *technically* got it in on time. Does my prediction count? >_>
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~War~ The Cream of Transexual Ex Girlfriend Fanboyism ~War~

Gaddswell | Posted 11/8/2008 1:14:03 AM | message detail | #436 | filter

Pikachu living up!
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ZFS | Posted 11/8/2008 1:45:32 AM | message detail | #437 | filter

i was so close to taking Pikachu here too

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Cloud did it! He wrote L-Block's name in the Contest Note!

I hope he's going to make Cube lose too.
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This is not my GameFOX sig...
Therefore, it doesn't exist!

Liquid Snake.........21.92% 29823
Luigi........................15.91% 21647
Mario.......................32.73% 44537
Mega Man X...........29.44% 40050
TOTAL VOTES.....................136057

What Happened - Mario doesn't allow for Luigi to hold him back, and he beats MMX once again. Liquid doesn't do too bad, and Luigi, while he does suffer some SFF, manages to look respectable.

Why it Happened - Liquid has looked good for the past two rounds thanks to his opponents being Nintendo-supported ones. MMX stays pretty much consistent from last round too. Mario/Luigi had all sorts of "oh geez" going for it, but it ends up being nothing surprising after all.

What Will Happen - Link/Zack/Mario/MMX....hey Zack

Samus Aran.............34.84% 44550
Ganondorf................16.96% 21691
Vincent Valentine....30.38% 38855
Gordon Freeman....17.82% 22782
TOTAL VOTES.......................127878

What Happened - Samus is able to SFF Ganon a bit harder this time, giving her no trouble beating Vincent

Why it Happened - Ganon could have been SFF'ed more thanks to the tougher competiion this time (like Tifa). Gordon ends up looking fine thanks to his solid fabase. Vincent is unable to capitalize on Samus, but it's not like he did bad or anything.

What Will Happen - Samus and Vincent both look good going into R4.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay everyone (except Ngamer)!

Yoblazer - 34
Ngamer - 32
HM - 32
Moltar - 32
Tran - 30
Guest - 28
Lopen - 25

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Molt gets the point for Mario, Molt and HM get points for MMX, Moltar and Yo get points for Liquid, and Molt gets the point for Luigi (aww yeah first 4-pointer).

Lopen gets the point for Samus and Ganon, Molt gets the point for Vincent, HM, Yo and Dp get points for Gordon

Yoblazer - 43
HM - 37
Moltar - 37
Ngamer - 36
Tran - 31
Guest (War (2), KP (2), Dp (2), Justin (2), greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai, Klennex, Luis (2), Scott, Soul (2), Leon (3), Ed, Luster (3), Zylo) - 27
Lopen - 22
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This is not my GameFOX sig...
Therefore, it doesn't exist!

WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/8/2008 12:27:08 PM | message detail | #440 | filter

....I think if the match ended now, I'd get 4 points for Crew Accuracy >_>;
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~War~ The Cream of Transexual Ex Girlfriend Fanboyism ~War~

Moltar's Analysis

augh c'mon dell get your asses to my house already

Pikachu has given us hope! It started with Auron and Sonic, and now Crono and Pikachu have knocked off the second and strongest of the joke characters. The last one is here.

Snake will easily take the top spot (hopefully be a huge margin too). With L losing today, some are hoping Mega Man will beat Cube tomorrow more than ever.

Still, Mega Man has a Zero-sized anchor weighing him down...I don't know if lightning can strike twice.

...

oh screw it i've been watching gurren lagann and i'm KICKING LOGIC TO THE CURB

time for Mega Man to DO THE IMPOSSIBLE (row row fight da cube)!

Snake - 37% :: Mega Man - 23% :: Cube - 23% :: Zero - 17%

Heroic Mario's Analysis

Who's ready for another round of Solid Snake domination?

Outside of a few choice people, there hasn't been much debate about who takes first today. After how good Snake looked last round, there shouldn't be any question that he'll cruise to an easy first today. The only worry that people had was that with this being the sprite round, Mega Man might be able to take advantage of Snake's poor pics. But that's no more with change to 'freeform' pics for the rest of the contest - no Solid **** all is well in the world. Even better for Snake, L-Block is getting beat easy by Pikachu, which doesn't bode well for the Cube in this match, considering its never looked as good as the Block and its competition is a lot stiffer.

As far as second goes, Mega Man shouldn't have too much problem taking it. He didn't have too much trouble with the Cube last round, but he does have to deal with Zero today. I'm not expecting much on that front - I doubt we'll see the same MM/Zero split we saw a few years ago. He should push Zero down into the low-teens. It's not quite the same situation he was in last year with Link/Crono/Vincent, but he's still outclassed here.

The Cube shouldn't do terribly here, though. It'll probably put up a good fight against Mega Man, though I think we'll know who the winner is not long after the poll starts. After L-Block being eliminated, it's hard to see the Cube still going on, unless there's that whole 'revenge' voting or whatever it is people are talking about. Not seeing it happen.

But anyway - today's match is all about Snake dominating. He should start setting himself up for an easy run to the finals here, beating Mega Man and Zero combined easy. He may not go quite as high as I have him, but I'd be surprised if second is close to him.

Time to get ready for some Snake > Cloud in the semis let's do this

Prediction: Snake - 40% ; Mega Man - 25% ; WCC - 23% ; Zero - 12%

Vote: Solid Snake

Yoblazer's Analysis

The block is dead, and I can only hope that we never have to see it and the even stupider joke that killed it again. This does beg the question, though: was L-Block's shocking (!!) death a self-contained incident, or is it a grave harbinger for this match's own joke character? It can be argued either way, but hell we'll all find out in a couple of ours so let's just chill for the time being.

Chill and enjoy the biggest foregone conclusion of the day: Snake. Killing. EVERYONE. Whoa, everyone?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrTsuvykUZk

Yeah. Everyone. Snake is going to murder this poll, and god damn is it gonna be good to watch. He's up against a joke entrant in Weighted Companion Cube. That same joke entrant lost 3.5% of support between rounds, and if L-Block's performance is any indication, it'll be losing more today. Snake's also up against a Noble Niner he beat with 55%+ two years ago. That Noble Niner appears to have gotten weaker, while Snake looks like he's gotten beefier. That Noble Niner (I'm talkin bout Mega Man, by the way) must also endure a fanbase split. Man, this match is gonna be great!

About as predictable as Snake's dominance is the assumption that Zero will take last place by a fair margin. Granted, Zero had an excellent performance against Mega Man in 2004, but SFF just seems to work differently in these 4way scenarios. He also only put up 21% in his last match, so I doubt he manages anything more than the mid-teens against tougher competition and SFF. So, first and last place seem to be pretty locked up, and that only leaves one thing...

Mega Man or Weighted Companion Cube? I have WCC in my bracket, and up until about 22 hours ago, I felt damn good about it. I knew Snake would kill the poll and that Mega would have to endure a fanbase split, so I figured Cube would be all in there. While that can still happen, I think it depends on a few things. For starters, the meltdown we're seeing with L-Block must be largely self-contained. If voters are equally sick of all joke characters, Cube may as well kiss his chances goodbye against two Noble Niners. Secondly, Zero probably has to hold up pretty well, which, once again, I'm betting against. It kinda sucks to go against my bracket when things looked so promising only a day ago, but that's the nature of this contest and this format.

By the way, guys, if you really want to bury Cube at the start, then just vote for mother ****ing Solid Snake and push him to the mid-40s in the opening minutes. Just throwing it out there!

Mega Man - 25%
Weighted Companion Cube - 23%
Solid Snake - 38%
Zero - 14%

Lopen's Analysis

Alright, temporary hiatus from storytime. PIKACHU has reinvigorated my interest in the contest, and this match is now debatable.

Let's draw some parallels to L-Block
L's path 31.81% -> 27.74% -> 24.60% currently. Absolutely Glorious.
Cube's path 32.21% -> 28.62% -> Who knows

Well... sure does look similar for the first two rounds, doesn't it? I expect Cube doesn't fall quite has fast as L-Block, given that it has you know... real fans, but the writing is on the wall here (Sandbag's performance sure didn't look too good either) and that writing says joke characters are officially getting old. Expect a 24-26 from Cube here. Now the question is: Can Mega Man cover that? Assuming Cube nabs 24%, Mega Man needs to beat that to win. Now, Snake may have boosted, but let's not fool ourselves... Mega Man/Snake is still a reasonably close match. Snake shouldn't beat Mega Man by more than 4-5%.

That is, in normal circumstances. Who knows what Zero is going to do here. We've seen him look good in these SFF situations... hell, he outdid Snake himself a couple of years ago. I think this is going to be a more lopsided cut than that match implies though. I think Mega Man or Zero was fueled largely by votes that should go to Snake here. That is, votes from outside the core fanbase. My original inclination (and sadly, my bracket agrees... though in my defense I thought Zero would do a bit better last round!) was that it was going to be Zero getting the favorable end of this lopsided cut... but I no longer feel that way. After Luigi's humiliation by Mario the other day, I don't think Zero's "fan favorite" status in the Mega Man series will be doing him any favors. And really, when you finish last round in 20%, you're not looking good to upend Mega Man in any circumstance.

Now in hindsight, it's likely Zero did so well against Mega Man because of the outsider votes... I mean, he does have the more appealing design. He is the "cooler" character. If you're not a huge fan of either, you probably go to Zero. Zero is not going to look good here. So assuming Mega Man finishes 6-7% behind Snake (Zero shouldn't hurt him TOO much, but it won't be totally negligible) how low does Zero have to go, assuming a 24% for the Cube? *runs some numbers* 16-17%. No problem. He only finished at 22 last round... 17 is looking high for him at this point.

YES. JOKE ARMAGEDDON. KILL THEM. KILL THEM ALL!

Lopen's Prediction:
Snake - 33.12%
Mega Man - 26.10%
Cube - 24.21% (yes, I said it falls slower than L... but... this is stiffer competition, it about balances out)
Zero - 16.57%

Transience's Analysis

so, uh...

what? L-Block losing, I can understand that. the thing is weird as hell, you can't expect it to be consistent forever. but to beat Ryu straight-up and lose to Pikachu? Pikachu looks like he's around Auron level here. what the hell?

now that the Block is gone, people want blood. the Cube is all that's left, and he's got a tougher match today than the Block had - two Noble Nine guys.

there's one big problem here -- Mega Man's going to be handicapped with Zero to sap away some of his support. you'd think this would end up hurting MM's chances of qualifying.

I don't, though. I think that his competition is a weird joke, and if Mega Man can "SFF" Zero then we'll have two numbers big enough to beat the Cube. Zero held up great in 2004 when the two went against each other, but I get the feeling that that won't happen again. the main concern here is that Snake might beat the hell out of everybody, MM included. but MM has a better chance of getting a big percentage on Zero than he would someone of comparable strength -- say, Vivi. Cube is going to be dangerously close to beating Mega Man, I think, and it just depends on where the split goes between MM and Zero. I think MM barely moves on.

transience's prediction:

Snake - 37.06%
Mega Man - 25.12%
Weighted Companion Cube - 24.44%
Zero - 13.38%

Ngamer's Analysis

Yes. Yes. YES! The King is Dead! WCC can go right ahead and make it to the finals and kill off my bracket in the process and I wouldn't even mind at this point, because... what a fantastic result today! To get the Block knocked out at any time would have been great, but for it to happen like this, with another miracle third round result for The Little Rat that Could when we were once again all counting him out... just wow! By far the most pleased I've been with any result in many a year.

I've been so busy celebrating all day that I didn't leave much time for this writeup! So let's jump right on in.

X-Stats from Round Two

Mega Man - 29.54% (based on '07 Tidus)
WCC - 25.97% (based on '07 Tidus)
Snake - 35.99% (based on '07 Vivi)
Zero - 23.72% (based on '07 Vivi)

Pretty reasonable results all around there... Those are solid numbers, but we're going to have to bend at least three of them. First we'll have to lower MM and Zero a bit to make up for their shared fanbase- but which way do we go? Could Zero be able to rSFF his blue pal, as he appeared to back in 2004, or are we going to see a more standard SFFing of Zero, kind of like what we just saw in Mario/Luigi? Personally I'm leaning toward the SFF option... yes Zero impressed by surviving a high powered onslaught from Vivi, but let's not forgot how easily he was (apparently) LFFed by having two Nintendo guys hanging round in R1, or how he has generally disappointed the last few years.

The voters seemed to have brightened up this year as we move further into the bracket: they knew to drop Tifa in order to push Seph through, and were quick to drop Ganon in favor of assuring Samus a win a couple days back. If the Cube threatens, and I've got to think he will, I'm picturing voters once again coming to the rescue by dropping that Zero and going with a hero by the name of Mega Man. Even so, I think he'll have a tougher time of dispatching this joke than Pika did today... this was L's 10th main page Contest poll in the last 13 months, 11 if you count that "who is going to win this year?" question where he featured prominently, so I could see how voters might have tired of the joke. WCC on the other hand is still pretty new and fresh, and has the more dedicated Portal fanbase to fall back on if all else fails. Even so... nay, just can't bring myself to pick the joke, not after today.

And as for Snake, well, he's going to destroy everyone, of course. We're on an incredible hot streak for Nintendo overperformances here in this round, which means that as the only Brawl representative Solid's going to have to keep the pace. Rock their world, Snakey!

A big Snake win, a tight MM survival, Zero getting pounded, that would look something like... *stirs the pot very quickly*

Solid Snake - 38.14%
Mega Man - 23.24%
Weighted Companion Cube - 23.18%
Zero - 15.43%

The looks... like Snake has his work cut out for him. But MM is no king of the Day Vote, so he'll pull it off!

Ngamer Says: Snake > Mega Man

Crew Consensus: Snake wins and now we're looking for Mega Man to save us

Gaddswell | Posted 11/8/2008 10:22:49 PM | message detail | #445 | filter

No guest?

Ah well, good to see Pika giving hope!
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transience | Posted 11/8/2008 10:23:58 PM | message detail | #446 | filter

man, no one took the Cube?

I almost want to change my opinion here. Cube isn't going to die just because L-Block did.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg

well technically i had cube and mega man swapped with 23%, but after looking at everyone else and feeling a rush of believe i conformed
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Therefore, it doesn't exist!

transience | Posted 11/8/2008 10:27:34 PM | message detail | #448 | filter

Cube with 78% suck it Snake
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg

-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/8/2008 10:32:52 PM | message detail | #449 | filter

Cube isn't going to die just because L-Block did.

You are also forgetting that the Cube was able to pull off the standard 28-30% in the round 2 match. Hell, the Cube has an overall better performance than L-Block. The Cube managed to stay in total control in round 1, never losing the lead to Tidus. L-Block lost his lead to Ryu twice. Round 2 was when L-Block finished under 28% while the Cube comes close to 29% and even managed to stay above 30% for over 2 hours.

Right now, I'd say the Cube has a good shot of finishing higher in the x-stats than L-Block, assuming he doesn't have a massive collapse tomorrow.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~

HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/8/2008 10:45:15 PM | message detail | #450 | filter

I can't believe nobody thinks Cube will remain static and beat a sff'd down Mega Man. Cube isn't hated like L Block, he won't be anti voted to hell.
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