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Character Battle VII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

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Lopen | Posted 11/3/2008 1:46:54 AM | message detail | #351 | filter

Am I the only one who called Sub-Zero > Sandbag I think so
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe

th3l3fty | Posted 11/3/2008 1:47:33 AM | message detail | #352 | filter

The Consistency Ratings return!

Match 5: Luigi > Liquid Snake
1st Place
+7 Ngamer
+6 Guest
+5 HM
+4 yo
+3 tranny
+2 Moltar
+1 Lopen

2nd Place
+7 tranny
+6 Lopen, Ngamer
+4 Guest
+3 Moltar
+2 yo
+0 HM

Match 6: Bowser > Phoenix
1st Place
+7 yo
+6 Ngamer
+5 Moltar
+4 Lopen
+3 tranny
+2 HM
+1 Guest

2nd Place
+7 yo
+6 Ngamer
+5 Moltar
+4 HM
+3 Guest
+2 Lopen
+1 tranny

Match 7: Mario > Zelda
1st Place
+7 Ngamer
+6 Lopen
+5 Guest
+4 yo
+3 Moltar
+2 tranny
+1 HM

2nd Place
+7 Lopen
+6 Ngamer
+5 yo
+4 Guest
+3 tranny
+0 Moltar, HM

Match 8: X > Mudkip
1st Place
+7 HM
+6 Moltar
+5 yo
+4 Guest
+3 tranny
+2 Ngamer
+1 Lopen

2nd Place
+7 tranny
+6 Moltar
+5 HM
+4 Guest
+3 Ngamer
+2 yo
+0 Lopen

Match 9: Samus > Nightmare
1st Place
+7 Moltar
+6 Ngamer
+5 tranny
+4 Guest
+3 HM
+2 Lopen
+1 yo

2nd Place
+7 tranny
+6 yo
+5 Lopen
+4 Guest
+3 Ngamer
+2 Moltar
+1 HM

Match 10: Ganondorf > Frog
1st Place
+7 Ngamer
+6 yo
+5 tranny
+4 HM
+3 Moltar
+2 Lopen
+1 Guest

2nd Place
+7 Moltar
+6 yo
+5 tranny
+4 Guest
+3 HM
+2 Ngamer
+0 Lopen

Match 11: Vincent > Falco
1st Place
+7 Moltar
+6 tranny
+5 Lopen
+4 yo
+3 Ngamer
+2 HM
+1 Guest

2nd Place
+7 Moltar
+6 tranny
+5 Lopen
+4 yo
+3 Ngamer
+2 HM
+0 Guest

Match 12: Scorpion > Gordon
1st Place
+7 Moltar
+6 HM
+5 yo, Guest
+3 Ngamer
+2 Lopen
+1 tranny

2nd Place
+7 Moltar, HM, yo
+4 Guest
+3 Lopen
+2 Ngamer
+1 tranny

Match 13: Crono > Amaterasu
1st Place
+7 Moltar, HM
+5 tranny
+4 yo
+3 Lopen
+2 Guest
+1 Ngamer

2nd Place
+7 Ngamer
+6 Guest
+5 tranny
+4 Moltar, HM
+2 yo
+0 Lopen

Match 14: L-Block > Ryu
1st Place
+7 yo
+6 Moltar
+5 HM
+0 Lopen, tranny, Ngamer, Guest

2nd Place
+7 yo
+6 Ngamer
+5 Moltar, HM
+3 tranny
+2 Lopen
+1 Guest

Match 15: Alucard > Captain Falcon
1st Place
+7 HM
+6 Moltar, yo, Guest
+3 tranny
+2 Lopen
+1 Ngamer

2nd Place
+0 everyone

Match 16: Pikachu > Arthas
1st Place
+7 yo
+6 HM
+5 Ngamer
+4 Guest
+3 Moltar
+2 tranny
+1 Lopen

2nd Place
+7 Moltar
+6 tranny
+5 Ngamer
+4 HM
+3 yo
+0 Lopen, Guest

Match 17: Cube > Tidus
1st Place
+7 Guest
+6 Ngamer
+5 tranny
+0 Moltar, HM, yo, Lopen

2nd Place
+7 Ngamer
+6 Guest
+5 Lopen
+4 Moltar, HM
+2 yo
+0 tranny

Match 18: Mega Man > Nero
1st Place
+7 Moltar, yo
+5 Ngamer
+4 HM
+3 tranny
+2 Lopen
+1 Guest

2nd Place
+7 HM, yo, Guest
+4 Lopen
+3 tranny
+2 Moltar
+1 Ngamer

Match 19: Ryu H > Zero
1st Place
+7 Lopen
+6 tranny
+5 Moltar
+4 HM
+3 yo
+2 Guest
+1 Ngamer

2nd Place
+7 Lopen
+6 yo
+5 Guest
+4 Ngamer
+3 HM
+2 Moltar
+1 tranny

th3l3fty | Posted 11/3/2008 1:48:44 AM | message detail | #353 | filter

Match 20: Snake > Vivi
1st Place
+7 Guest
+6 Ngamer
+5 yo
+4 Moltar
+3 Lopen
+2 tranny
+1 HM

2nd Place
+7 Lopen
+6 Guest
+5 yo
+4 tranny
+3 Moltar
+2 Ngamer
+1 HM

Match 21: Sora > Fox
1st Place
+7 Moltar, yo
+5 Lopen
+4 tranny
+3 Guest
+2 Ngamer
+0 HM

2nd Place
+7 yo
+6 Moltar, Lopen
+4 tranny
+3 Ngamer
+2 Guest
+0 HM

Match 22: Squall > Yoshi
1st Place
+7 tranny
+6 yo
+5 Moltar
+4 Guest
+3 HM
+2 Ngamer
+1 Lopen

2nd Place
+7 Lopen
+6 Ngamer
+5 yo
+4 Guest
+3 HM
+2 Moltar
+1 tranny

Match 23: Cloud > Midna
1st Place
+7 Lopen
+6 Ngamer
+5 tranny
+4 yo
+3 HM
+2 Moltar
+1 Guest

2nd Place
+7 tranny
+6 Moltar, yo
+4 Ngamer
+3 HM
+0 Lopen, Guest

Match 24: Mewtwo > Pac-Man
1st Place
+7 yo
+6 Guest
+5 Moltar
+4 Ngamer
+3 HM
+2 tranny
+1 Lopen

2nd Place
+7 Ngamer
+6 tranny
+5 Lopen
+0 Moltar, HM, yo, Guest

Match 25: Big Boss > Kirby
1st Place
+7 HM, yo
+5 Guest
+4 Ngamer
+3 tranny
+2 Moltar
+1 Lopen

2nd Place
+7 Ngamer
+6 yo
+5 HM
+4 Guest
+3 tranny
+2 Moltar
+1 Lopen

Match 26: Master Chief > Raiden
1st Place
+7 Guest
+6 tranny
+5 Ngamer
+4 Moltar
+3 yo
+2 Lopen
+1 HM

2nd Place
+7 Guest
+6 Lopen
+5 Moltar
+4 tranny
+3 yo
+2 Ngamer
+1 HM

Match 27: Leon > Riku
1st Place
+7 tranny
+6 Moltar, yo
+4 Ngamer
+3 Lopen
+2 Guest
+0 HM

2nd Place
+7 Lopen
+6 Ngamer
+5 yo
+4 Moltar
+3 tranny
+2 Guest
+0 HM

Match 28: Dante > Hogger
1st Place
+7 HM
+6 Moltar
+5 Guest
+4 Lopen
+3 yo
+2 tranny
+1 Ngamer

2nd Place
+0 everyone

Match 29: Sonic > Sandbag
1st Place
+7 yo
+6 Guest
+5 Ngamer
+4 Moltar, HM
+2 tranny
+1 Lopen

2nd Place
+7 Ngamer
+6 tranny
+5 HM
+4 Moltar
+3 yo
+2 Guest
+0 Lopen

Match 30: Auron > Sub-Zero
1st Place
+7 tranny
+6 Moltar
+5 Guest
+4 yo
+3 Ngamer
+2 HM
+1 Lopen

2nd Place
+7 tranny
+6 Guest
+5 Moltar
+4 Lopen
+3 HM
+2 Ngamer
+1 yo

Match 31: Sephiroth > Tifa
1st Place
+7 Guest
+6 tranny, Ngamer
+4 Moltar, yo
+2 HM
+0 Lopen

2nd Place
+7 Guest
+6 yo
+5 tranny
+4 Ngamer
+3 Moltar
+2 HM
+0 Lopen

Match 32: Kratos > Jill Valentine
1st Place
+7 tranny
+6 Moltar
+5 Ngamer
+4 HM, yo
+2 Lopen
+0 Guest

2nd Place
+0 everyone

Overall Rankings
1. yoblazer (273)
2. Master Moltar (256)
3. Ngamer (250)
4. transience (244)
5. Board 8 (223)
6. Heroic Mario (204)
7. Lopen (181)

And that's it for... Round 1! >__>

YoAriel33 | Posted 11/3/2008 1:54:16 AM | message detail | #354 | filter

Heh, you're a stud to go through that many. We thank you!
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

Lopen | Posted 11/3/2008 2:01:00 AM | message detail | #355 | filter

Yay, more rankings for me to be last in!

And damn you Popo for causing initial scoring problems in that Seph/Tifa match!
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe

th3l3fty | Posted 11/3/2008 2:02:27 AM | message detail | #356 | filter

Alright, I have been alerted to a minor error!

Match 31: Sephiroth > Tifa
1st Place
+7 Guest
+6 tranny, Ngamer
+4 Moltar, yo
+2 HM
+1 Lopen

2nd Place
+7 Guest
+6 yo
+5 tranny
+4 Ngamer
+3 Moltar
+2 HM
+1 Lopen

Overall Rankings
1. yoblazer (273)
2. Master Moltar (256)
3. Ngamer (250)
4. transience (244)
5. Board 8 (223)
6. Heroic Mario (204)
7. Lopen (183)

I missed Lopen's Sephiroth > Tifa analysis, which gave him... +2.
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris

LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2008 8:46:38 AM | message detail | #357 | filter

Am I the only one who called Sub-Zero > Sandbag I think so

I had it in my Oracle prediction!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)

Leon Kennedy..........30.8% 43486
Riku..........................22.23% 31381
Dante.........................33.9% 47863
Hogger.....................13.07% 18460
TOTAL VOTES..................141190

What Happened - darn you last year. Without it, Dante > Leon probably would have been the obvious pick. Unfortunately, we had to wait until Round 1 to see that. Dante and Leon have no trouble taking the top two spots, while Riku takes a distant third.

Why it Happened - Last year's Round 3 results may finally have an explanation! Pikachu overperformed with his classic sprite, and Dante and Leon underperformed due to their crappy sprites. There doesn't seem to be much of a split between Dante/Leon after-all! The gap between Dante and Leon is a bit closer this year as well (56% to 52%), but RE characters have been looking better so...maybe that explains it?

What Will Happen - Kirby/Chief/Dante/Leon...oh man I'm excited for this

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay everyone (except Yo and Lopen)!

Yoblazer - 30
Ngamer - 29
HM - 28
Tran - 27
Moltar - 27
Guest - 26
Lopen - 23

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Moltar gets the point for Dante, Molt and Yo get points for Leon, HM gets the point for Riku, and Lopen gets the point for Hogger

Yoblazer - 37
Ngamer - 34
HM - 33
Moltar - 32
Tran - 30
Guest (War (2), KP (2), Dp, Justin (2), greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai, Klennex, Luis (2), Scott, Soul (2), Leon (3), Ed, Luster (3)) - 25
Lopen - 18
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Moltar Status: augh
Sonic/Sandbag/Auron/Sub-Zero - Bracket: Sonic > Auron - Vote: Auron (169/240)

And awesome stuff Lefty. It's initiative like that which gets you noticed as a potential future Crew member!
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Moltar Status: augh
Sonic/Sandbag/Auron/Sub-Zero - Bracket: Sonic > Auron - Vote: Auron (169/240)

Ngamer64 | Posted 11/3/2008 12:56:24 PM | message detail | #360 | filter

I'm so proud of lefty right now I could just about cry.

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Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/
Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com

transience | Posted 11/3/2008 3:37:52 PM | message detail | #361 | filter

annnd I'm home, with internet for the first time in days!

time to uhhh try and catch up and write something for tonight
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xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la

Division 8: Round 2 - Match 48 – Sephiroth vs. Tifa Lockheart vs. Kratos vs. Jill Valentine

Moltar’s Analysis

Sephiroth
Round 1 - 47.23% vs. Tifa, Ratchet and Nana

Leave it to Sephiroth to not look like a dominant character

Tifa
Round 1 - 28.49% vs. Sephiroth, Ratchet and Nana

Looks like some FF voters do like “teh boobs”

Kratos
Round 1 - 37.19% vs. Jill, Ocelot and Heavy

Not bad for Kratos in Round 1

Jill
Round 1 - 25.70% vs. Kratos, Ocelot and Heavy

…what the hell

Dammit, this was supposed to be Ocelot’s year! He’s fresh off of MGS4 with a boost. Only thing is that it turns out Jill wasn’t as weak as she looked last year, and that Cloud had deceived us all. He made us think that the hardcore fanbase of MGS was stronger than Jill’s core fanbase, when it turns out it is much larger.

Anyway, enough dwelling on the past, time to look forward for this match. Sephiroth takes first, obviously. The battle for second is a three-way dance.

First up is Tifa. Many didn’t think she stood a chance here because Sephiroth would kill her SFF-wise. After the Round 1 match, many people changed their mind on that. Tifa held up like a champ to Sephiroth. Still, I think this is because the other options were complete garbage (nana and ratchet eww). With those two scrubs being traded in for Kratos and Jill, Tifa should come out looking a lot worse here.

Jill…man I was not prepared for her being here at all. This upset completely blindsided a lot of people, me included. Still, if she looked bad with Cloud in the poll last year, than Sephiroth isn’t going to do her any favors. At least I would give Ocelot a shot at third here, but Jill? Take last, *****.

Then there is Kratos, the favorite for second. He looked good enough in Round 1 to cancel out Tifa’s good performance in my mind. It’s hard to tell how much he’s boosted from his PSP game and more exposure, as Jill and Ocelot both look to have boosted as well. Still, if Tifa looks worse like I expect her to, Kratos should have this in the bag.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Sephiroth > Kratos

Moltar’s Prediction is: Sephiroth: 40% - Kratos: 26% - Tifa: 21% - Jill: 13%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Today's match should be interesting. With Tifa having held up well last round against Sephiroth - some would say too well - Tifa's being given more of a chance than she did pre-contest, where I argued there wouldn't be nearly as much overlap as Seph/Vincent. Kratos looked solid in round 1, but he didn't do well enough to make him a lock here, although he should be an easy favorite thanks to SFF.

Those backing Kratos do have a decent argument about Tifa being worse off when there's actual competition in the poll and not two pieces of fodder in Nana and Ratchet. There really wasn't a good option outside of the FFVII duo, and the lesser of the two evils in a non-FFVII fans eyes is Tifa before Sephiroth, which may have inflated her percentage a bit. It helps that Kratos certainly hasn't faltered in this format - he's looks like someone who will rise to Dante's level before long. He's probably the most 'independent' of this group, though I think one could argue that Kratos' appeal can be lost against someone like Sephiroth, not to mention some slight overlap. Not something I believe, but there's some solid reasoning behind it.

In Tifa's favor she's got an excellent performance in round 1 - you can spin it any way you want to, but it's a great showing to not be hit with SFF. Sephiroth has never been all that great at dishing out SFF, at least in comparison to Cloud who brutalizes any Square character he goes up against. Tifa's got a very different appeal than Sephiroth, and her fanbase is bound to support her to a certain extent - she has a definite floor, and I'd wager it's pretty high. That combined with the fact that she's no doubt the much stronger character of the two makes her a great upset pick here - one I took in my bracket.

But I still like Kratos to take second. SFF matches have been bad this year, and characters normally weaker have been able to slip by with wins they normally wouldn't have gotten. I'd take Tifa over Kratos in a neutral four-way or 1-on-1 easy, but with Sephiroth in the way I like Kratos by a smidge. It's a tough match that I can see going either way.

As far as Jill goes, she'll do pretty well, but won't be in contention for anything other than last. She's got a great pic today, though - beats this group easy - but that won't matter here. Then again, you never know with REFAQs.

Prediction: Sephiroth - 38% ; Kratos - 23% ; Tifa - 22% ; Jill - 17%
Vote: REFAQS

Yoblazer’s Analysis

I'll make this one short, because I believe we'll all have far more important things to analyze over the next 30 or so hours. This match between Sephiroth, Tifa, Kratos, and Jill Valentine wraps up the second round, and the only reason I give even the smallest crap is because of my little Jillybean gracing us with her presence.

Sephiroth is going to win; there's no doubt of this. GameFAQs' villain numero uno didn't look great in his opening performance, though, only putting up a little over 62% on Tifa. However, I wouldn't be so quick to attribute this to Sephiroth sucking with inter-FFVII SFF, especially after what he did to Vincent last year. Rather, he and Tifa were up against terribly weak competition, it was 100% obvious Sephiroth would win, and Tifa got possibly the most beautiful female picture in contest history. I think those factors combined to give her a nice little overperformance, and with stronger competition and a less awesome Tifa pic, I expect Seph to do better against this time around. Say... to the tune of 65-66%? Sounds good!

If Tifa does manage to do as well as in Round 1, then I think she has an excellent shot at advancing. But since I don't expect her to, Kratos (God of War) remains the favorite to advance. The murderous anti-hero may not be as strong as Tifa intrinsically, but he'll take advantage of the big Seph/Tifa overlap, and he had a very emboldening performance in Round 1, himself. Some people thought Revolver Ocelot may even give him a scare, but he blew away the field. After what she did last round, Tifa could make it close, but I think Kratos will be just fine.

And then there is Jill. Jill Valentine, the zombie killer, my Jill. She shocked everyone a couple weeks ago, giving us what was arguably the biggest upset (in terms of the result itself, not the percentage) of the entire round. Now she's back, but unfortunately, the competition is way too out of her league. Jill only put up 15% last year on Cloud and Ocelot, and I think this trio of opponents is comparable in strength. Couple that with the fact that Tifa might sap some of her boob support (a shame!), and I think she'll just nail 15% again. You did amazingly well, Jillybean. I'll try my damnedest to bring you back next year.

Sephiroth - 40%
Tifa - 21%
Kratos (God of War) - 24%
Jill Valentine - 15%

Lopen’s Analysis

Well, Tifa did a lot better than I expected last round, and as such I have my doubts about her going down here. Let's look at raw percentage, here:

Kratos got 37% against Jill, Ocelot, and a jobber.
Tifa got 27% against Sephiroth and two jobbers.

That's only 10% difference... and really, Tifa's got the much tougher pack there. Let's even forget SFF for a moment. Put Kratos in Tifa's place, how much does he get? I have my doubts he beats 27% by any significant amount. Really, I do. I expected Tifa to get SFFed a good deal worse than that when I picked Kratos to advance. Let's also consider something else here... which of these two characters do I expect to hold up better against strong opposition? Kratos seems like the casual bait here, the Ryu Hayabusa like character, whereas Tifa seems like she'd have the more devoted fanbase.

And unfortunately, I think Sephiroth will be taking the brunt of the damage here in this match. Not from the angry bald man's glare weakening his performance, as might be expected, nono. We all know Sephiroth is a giver... all of the SFF split to be given will be from Sephiroth, to Tifa. Fans of both will support Tifa in her time of need, continuing the tradition we see of the obvious first place character doing poorly. We will only see a small portion of the massive percentage he is able to erect, as it remains deeply hidden inside hers due to the overlap. Kratos's, and yes, even Jill's percentage, will appear larger than would be expected against this stiff competition due to being outside this overlap, but it will not be enough.

Lopen's prediction:
Sephiroth - 37.69%
Tifa - 24.07%
Kratos - 21.66%
Jill Valentine - 16.58%

Transience’s Analysis

I missed a few days, but I'm back for good now! for the record, I would have picked Cloud > Mewtwo, Kirby > Master Chief (woo), Dante > Riku (whoops) and Auron > Sonic (yay).

tonight, we've got two FF7 guys and Kratos, a guy who's absolutely legit. I've argued about this guy a lot in the past - he's the new Dante, and while he's not on that level yet he's definitely not far behind, and probably above Leon Kennedy who gave Dante a nice fight the other day. Dante could arguably hang with Tifa.

now, Tifa with Sephiroth? it seems like an obvious call. we saw Bowser and Luigi vs. Liquid Snake and we saw what happened there. Kratos rocks Liquid Snake.

I do have one concern though: Kratos's main appeal (his only appeal?) is his "badass" traits. that's Sephiroth in spades. I feel like Sephiroth could really rock this match. Jill doesn't look like she'll do much with that picture either.

screw this bring on Obama tomorrow

transience's prediction:

Jill Valentine - 13.00%
Kratos (God of War) - 25.00%
Sephiroth - 41.00%
Tifa Lockheart - 21.00%

Ngamer’s Analysis

Uh oh, not alot of time for tonight's writeup because I spent most of it doing an Oracle prediction of the upcoming election. So let me just quickly say, hoooray for Auron! So good to see him finally be given a chance to knock around fodder before getting bounced out by Cloud/Sephiroth... this time he got to knock around a Noble Niner before that happened! Also it's obviously awesome to see the weakening joke trend continue, as Sandy couldn't even manage a real ASV and is going to be punked easily by Subby in this one. I still don't have much hope for Pika over the Block, but after a showing like this I think MM > WCC once against becomes a good possibility, even with Zero trying to hold him back.

Alright, on to the last battle of the round. This one's got great potential!

X-Stats from Round One
Sephiroth - 28.80% (based on '07 Ratchet)
Tifa - 21.67% (based on '07 Ratchet)
Kratos - 25.62% (based on '07 Ocelot)
Jill - 20.94% (based on '07 Ocelot)

No time to discuss these stats!

Why such potential? Well, if Seph once again forgets that he's 1/3 of Clinkeroth and barely hurts a character from his own game with SFF like we saw in R1, there's a very real possibility of Tifa advancing. However, if that realization suddenly dawns on him and he destroys Tifa like he ought to (and like he DID do to Vincent back in '07), then there's a very real possibility that Jill REFAQses her way past her into third. So the question of the match is, which Sephiroth will show up?

Personally I'm banking on the later. Ratchet and Nana were horrible competition no matter how you look at it; Kratos and Jill aren't exactly Mario and Link, but they're at least decent options and so I'm expecting trends to return moreso to what we witnessed in the poll where VV got owned. Even so, I see the final percentages here being something where even though Tifa looks pretty bad, Seph doesn't exactly come out looking good, just on account of how his doing so would make some kind of sense, and Sephiroth doesn't roll that way.

Sooo, does this mean Jill will be able to catch up to Tifa? Nay, sorry, still don't see it. She and Leon and Chris have already done more than enough to distinguish themselves this season by going well beyond our expectations; should be fun to see them in action again in '08, assuming RE5 is as big a hit as many are predicting. If Jill were a bigger Day Vote threat I'd have to consider the upset more seriously, but as is I can't see her making a real game of it.

That leaves us with Kratos, who frankly I'm fairly hesitant to put much faith in... Sure he looked good in R1, but I get the impression that he's one of those guys like Hayabusa or Altair or (apparently) Mewtwo- capable of soaking up enough casual indifference vote to wow us in the early rounds, but who voters will abandon in droves as soon as other legit options are delivered. Plus if there's one thing that's sure to hurt a Playstation star it's the introduction of a compelling Final Fantasy 7 option. But... eh, I still see him doing well enough in the day to put this advancement out of Tifa's reach. Plus he's sporting full-on Banner Factor in that pic, which never hurts!

So Seph >>> Kratos > Tifa > Jill, which if stirred in a pot for five minutes will result in something along the lines of

Sephiroth - 38.06%
Kratos (God of War) - 24.71%
Tifa Lockheart - 20.68%
Jill Valentine - 16.55%

Hmm, that's a decent bit of Jill faith. Come on REFAQs, pull this out for me!

Ngamer Says: Sephiroth > Kratos

Guest’s Analysis - GrapefruitKing

Well well well, pretty interesting little match-up here.

The initial consensus when the bracket was posted was that the winner of Kratos/Ocelot would easily dispose of Tifa in Round 2. If she could beat Nana. Good job, Nana. Then when Tifa put up a reasonably good performance in her match with Seph in there, it sparked some debate, I think.
28.5% is a good number for Tifa, even if the other characters are fodder (I'm sorry, Ratch). Well at least I expected her to be around 22% in that match. But I suck. So, ok, that happened, and then Kratos decided to do ridiculously good in his match, breaking 37% and more than 15000 votes over Ocelo... wait.. I mean, Jill.

Wait what? Jill? She's definitely the surprise guest in this match, but unfortunately her only role will be to watch the other 3 guys have fun. I can't see her even coming close to the 3rd place. Which will be occupied byyy... well, Tifa, of course. Kratos did way too good last round for me to believe Tifa has a chance. She's hard to gauge because we've only seen her in one four-way match because Zolom stole her spot last year. But at least she proved in round 1 that she can partially dodge some of Seph's SFF.

I don't think the pic will make much of a difference, they're all pretty recognizable, Kratos is very badass and Jill is like "waah get me out of here they're too strong for me".
So, anyway, time to translate these dumb words into numbers

GrapefruitKing's surprisingly accurate prediction:
Sephiroth 36.45%
Kratos 26.54%
Tifa 21.01%
Jill Valentine 16.00%

Crew Consensus: Seph > Kratos, Lopen Upset Special is Seph > Tifa

DpObliVion | Posted 11/3/2008 10:09:30 PM | message detail | #367 | filter

DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

**** this contest.

If there's any bit of redemption, Tifa will be doomed tomorrow from Sephiroth SFF to allow Kratos to advance. Tifa held up better than expected in the first round, but those were some pathetic couple other people in the poll.

I actually put a lot of research into percentages for once on this one, which I won't go into detail with, but based on both of the first round matches and the Cloud/Midgar/Jill/Ocelot match last year, it looks in slight favor for Tifa. I'm gonna shift it in Kratos' favor though between thinking she overperformed in Round 1 because of opponents, her jugs aren't showing in the Round 2 pic, and bracket bias.

Dp's bracket says: Sephiroth > Kratos

Dp's prediction is: Sephiroth > Kratos

Sephiroth - 39%
Kratos - 24%
Tifa - 23%
Jill - 14%

---
NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

Ngamer64 | Posted 11/3/2008 10:11:35 PM | message detail | #368 | filter

Why are you mad at the Contest Dp? Your wish just came true- Bag in last by a mile!

---
Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/
Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com

LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2008 10:15:17 PM | message detail | #369 | filter

Rooting for Tifa!
---
Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)

Lopen | Posted 11/3/2008 10:56:16 PM | message detail | #370 | filter

Wow. i'm the only one that took Tifa here?

Time to die, crew...!
---
Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe

LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2008 10:56:56 PM | message detail | #371 | filter

Time for Hit or Miss Lopen to strike gold!
---
Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)

Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/3/2008 10:57:20 PM | message detail | #372 | filter

Funny, Lopen, since you're the one that's most likely to miss.
---
Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM

Sonic the Hedgehog........29.69% 38702
Sandbag..........................15.15% 19756
Auron...............................34.64% 45155
Sub-Zero.........................20.52% 26756
TOTAL VOTES.........................130369

What Happened - Oh Sonic, this format just hates you. Auron is able to beat the Noble Niner with ease. Sub-Zero does well and Sandbag loses his joke support to land in last.

Why it Happened - As crazy as this looks, it isn't that surprising. Auron has always looked real good in this format, while Sonic has looked bad. Auron has a strong FF fanbase behind him, while Sonic isn't really a favorite, just liked. Sandbag losing his joke support and falling that much is a surprise, but uh...it gives me hope.

What Will Happen - Sonic's lucky Seph is joining in Round 3

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay everyone (except HM and Guest)!

Yoblazer - 31
Ngamer - 30
HM - 28
Tran - 28
Moltar - 28
Guest - 26
Lopen - 24

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Lopen gets the point for Auron and Subby, HM gets the point for Sonic, Zylo gets the point for Sandbag

Yoblazer - 37
Ngamer - 34
HM - 34
Moltar - 32
Tran - 30
Guest (War (2), KP (2), Dp, Justin (2), greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai, Klennex, Luis (2), Scott, Soul (2), Leon (3), Ed, Luster (3), Zylo) - 26
Lopen - 20
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Moltar Status: augh
Seph/Tifa/Kratos/Jill - Bracket: Seph > Kratos - Vote: Jill (173/248)

Lopen | Posted 11/4/2008 9:44:01 PM | message detail | #374 | filter

I let you have that Sandbag point, guest, remember that !!
---
Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe

Ngamer64 | Posted 11/4/2008 10:12:53 PM | message detail | #375 | filter

Bumped to help Moltar out.

---
Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/
Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com

Division 1: Round 3 - Match 49 – Link vs. Zack Fair vs. Duke Nukem vs. Altair

Moltar’s Analysis

Link
Round 1 - 60.72% vs. Zidane, Shadow and Luke
Round 2 - 53.34% vs. Zack, Zidane and Wario

Link continues to walk all over this division.

Zack
Round 1 - 44.64% vs. Wario, Cecil and Jade
Round 2 - 23.90% vs. Link, Zidane and Wario

ZackFAQs continues. Impressive performance!

Duke
Round 1 - 26.35% vs. Marth, Cecil and Jade
Round 2 - 31.07% vs. Altair, Marth and Lucario

Wow Duke…just wow.

Altair
Round 1 - 43.10% vs. Lucario, Isaac and Guybrush
Round 2 - 30.50% vs. Duke, Marth and Lucario

Turns out Lucario’s group was uber-weak

I only called one of these characters right in my bracket. darn you division 1

Anyway, the one character I called right was Link, and I’ll get him right again as he’ll take first with ease. He’s looked good so far, so I’m expecting to see another good performance from him here.

Second place is…most likely going to Zack. 24% with Link in the poll AND Zidane hurting him is very nice for the black-haired Cloud. This is also Zack’s first match free of any other Square characters, so we should finally be able to get a good read on him here. It’s do or die time!

Duke and Altair fight in the casual’s battle for third. Duke has been nothing but impressive in his contest run thus far. However, with strong competition here, Duke support is looking to abandon him just like they did in Round 2 of last year. Altair could win because of this but…he draws much of his support from the casuals too.

Who cares about third though, it’s all about Link and Zack baby.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Link > Shadow (believe)

Moltar’s Prediction is: Link: 48% - Zack: 24% - Duke: 15% - Altair: 13%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

awwwwwww yeeeeeah Obama

Link taps into the Obama vote and rocks this pack hard; Zack takes an easy second.

election night success

Prediction: Link - 50% ; Zack - 23% ; Duke - 17% ; Altair - 10%
Vote: obama winz

Yoblazer’s Analysis

Not the best day! (Actually it is)

Link - 51%
Zack Fair - 24%
Duke Nukem - 13%
Altair - 12%

Lopen’s Analysis

Zack's popularity still confuses the hell out of me... five minutes in FF7 and a PSP game!? But now we're at low enough percentages that I can buy that he's getting most of his support from a PSP game. And what strong support it seems to be. 24% last round against Link? That's pretty damn good. And although Altair and the Duke are a far cry from Zidane and Wario on the totem pole, I still don't think they're going to get the job done, as much as I'd love to bet on the Duke here.

For as much as I thought Zack would only get the apathy vote, Duke proved last year that he pretty much thrived on that. Beating Gordon to getting wasted by a good 5% when the competition showed up? Not a good way to show the backbone of your fanbase, bud. Altair? I'm thinking he's getting a lot of votes just because he looks cool and he's the only guy that a lot of voters recognize. (well okay, they recognized Marth but how many CARE about Marth)

And yet, with this year being the year of the joke... I can't help but think maybe The Duke holds up better here than last year implicates. And you know... the Duke doing so much better in R2 than R1... maybe... maybe the Duke is gaining momentum? I mean, certainly I can't be the only one who thinks seeing Duke place next round would be amazing? (Duke's note: The Duke ain't no joke, boy)

Hmmm... the more I think about it: 24% is still only 24%. 24% with Link there is good... but that's pretty much all that was there, competitionwise. Zack and Link have nowhere to go but down with the Duke and Altair replacing SFFed Wario and SFFed Zidane (nothing says weak better than SFFed fodder). And that percentage they lose is going straight into the bank of the Duke.

Screw it. Even though I said just yesterday that this is obviously Zack's match, I've convinced myself. Always bet on the Duke.

Lopen's prediction
Link - 47.15%
Duke Nukem - 18.65%
Zack - 18.03%
Altair - 16.17%

Transience’s Analysis

Obama Day woo who cares about this match

I will do this regardless!

Zack should have this. he did well against Link - not great like some people tried to argue, but given that Zidane was there he looks like the clear fave. the new round 3 pics help him too, as he's got all his cool poses and swords and etc.

I have a funny feeling about The Duke though. he's not quite a joke vote, but he seems like he'd be pretty independent - and his pictures are good since he doesn't have to deal with that sprite crap. Zelda and Final Fantasy overlap; ALL OUTTA GUM and Link, not so much. I mean, I don't expect him to win, but seeing him compete and take the lead overnight? anything's possible.

I can't expect too much for Altair. casual draws have no chance against Link.

transience's prediction:

Link - 45.56%
Zack - 24.44%
Duke Nukem - 17.45%
Altair - 12.55%

Ngamer’s Analysis

This ended up being pretty well-timed... not much to keep an eye on in this match (aside from Tifa taking the lead for a brief while during Europe's voting, but we all knew that wouldn't last), but that was just fine because we had that OTHER popularity poll to follow along with tonight. Just quickly I'll say that I'm a little miffed at Jill for not maintaining more of her base, but ah well, still a great season for her regardless. And I'm also miffed at Seph for not doing what I expected, and instead performing up to expectations. Arg, even when I bet against common sense in the hopes of nailing down his unpredictable nature I still can't peg him!

And this election has robbed me of my time, so let's hurry on to

X-Stats from Round Two

Don't have them! I have to set up my spreadsheet to cover the R2 results once election fever is over. So let's rush on to

- Link: he one-upped Cloud in R1, but his eternal rival showed him up in R2; I see the mean green machine being out to revenge in this one and looking to toss out a stunning percentage of his own. without anything Nintendo to limit his damage, watch out for Link tonight!

- Zack: should look very solid as well; this is tougher competition than last round, and yet he might very well do the almost unheard of and increase his percentage now that Zidane's out of the way. I think he powers past these others in style, number 1 because Square's looked good, number 2 because Square always brings its A game against big Nintendo, and number 3 because these other guys are kind of chumps!

- Duke: alright alright, so he's clearly not the same Duke we'd seen in years past, but still, there's a world of difference between not collapsing under Nintendo when it's being represented by Marth/Lucario and when it's being represented by LINK. I think this is finally the time for him to wilt under pressure as he did in R2 last season... but even so, Altair probably flops harder!

- Altair: prime casual bait right here. congrats on surviving Marth, I guess (though I still don't think you'd have done it in a legit match without Lucario there wrecking him), but now that he's running into the teeth of the combined casual appeal of Ocarina of Time and Final Fantasy 7 it's going to take more than an appealing character design to save him. Altair for last, though he can still probably at least take a run at Duke during the ASV.

And converting those thoughts to numbers, potting and stirring should yield a result like:

Link - 47.92%
Zack Fair - 23.47%
Duke Nukem - 14.45%
Altair - 14.16%

That looks... rushed!

Crew Consensus: Obama > McCain well then

...

...

...

...

oh and Link > Zack

DpObliVion | Posted 11/4/2008 10:32:45 PM | message detail | #379 | filter

DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

Third round! Time for ZACKFEAR!

While Duke Nukem and Altair split the apathetic casual vote, with Link dominating the casual vote as it is, Zack once again has a free ride to the next round.

I....really don't know what else to say about this match.

Dp's bracket says: Link > Zack

Dp's prediction is: Link > Zack

Link - 46.50%
Zack - 22.50%
Duke - 16.50%
Altair - 14.50%

---
NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

satai_delenn | Posted 11/4/2008 10:38:17 PM | message detail | #380 | filter

Zack's popularity still confuses the hell out of me... five minutes in FF7 and a PSP game!? But now we're at low enough percentages that I can buy that he's getting most of his support from a PSP game.

I was thinking about this last round. It occurred to me that while it is a PSP game, it's a PSP game I can see loads of FFVII fans going out of their way to play or view even if they don't have a PSP. Renting, borrowing, watching cutscenes on youtube, whatever. FFVII has enough diehard, hardcore fans that I don't think being on the PSP hurts Zack as much as it would hurt another character who was almost PSP-exclusive. Plus Zack has stuff like Advent Children and whatnot backing him.
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Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE!

Lopen | Posted 11/4/2008 10:40:29 PM | message detail | #381 | filter

How do 3/6 crew members have Zack outdoing last round's percentage. Wario and Zidane come on people. I blame Obama giving Zack the smokescreen.

The people are voting for change Duke has this. Nothing says change better than Duke > Altair > Zack > Link
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe

Lopen | Posted 11/4/2008 10:44:00 PM | message detail | #382 | filter

I was thinking about this last round. It occurred to me that while it is a PSP game, it's a PSP game I can see loads of FFVII fans going out of their way to play or view even if they don't have a PSP

You know, considering you and I have both played it, and neither one of us own a PSP, I really should've considered this.

Not that it would've made me back out on bettin on The Duke, since I really stopped doubting his popularity last round... just wondering why the hell it existed more than anything... but yeah!
---
Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Also you might've brought this point to my attention before, too.

Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/4/2008 10:44:07 PM | message detail | #383 | filter

The people are voting for change Duke has this. Nothing says change better than Duke > Altair > Zack > Link

There's a world of difference between Nintendo being represented by Marth and Flopcario and Nintendo being represented by LINK. Duke probably does well against no-names, but put the likes of Cloud or Link in the poll and buh-bye Duke.
---
Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM

Lopen | Posted 11/4/2008 10:47:10 PM | message detail | #384 | filter

Whaaat you mean Duke won't beat Link.

I'm so sad now.

(Seriously though I kinda brought that point up in my analysis)
---
Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe

Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/4/2008 10:53:21 PM | message detail | #385 | filter

Whaaat you mean Duke won't beat Link.

I'm so sad now.

(Seriously though I kinda brought that point up in my analysis)

Harrumph. This from the guy who thought Kaim ARgonar had a shot at doing anything other than looking like absolute crap? Sad. You're grasping at straws, Longshot Lopen. Prepare to be disappointed yet again !!!
---
Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM

Sephiroth..................41.53% 56444
Tifa Lockheart...........20.06% 27259
Kratos......................24.25% 32949
Jill Valentine.............14.16% 19246
TOTAL VOTES....................135898

What Happened - Nothing too crazy here. Seph ends up looking good, and Kratos takes second over the SFFed Tifa.

Why it Happened - Seph SFFed Tifa better this round, due to the stronger competition present. Still, Kratos didn't do too well here. Seph probably took a small chunk of his votes as well. Jill...just kinda was there and did nothing.

What Will Happen - Auron/Sonic/Seph/Kratos...can Auron resist SFF enough to advance over Sonic?

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay everyone (except Lopen)!

Yoblazer - 32
Ngamer - 31
HM - 29
Tran - 29
Moltar - 29
Guest - 27
Lopen - 24

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Tran gets the point from Seph, Yo gets the point for Kratos and Jill, Ngamer gets the point for Tifa

Yoblazer - 39
Ngamer - 35
HM - 34
Moltar - 32
Tran - 31
Guest (War (2), KP (2), Dp, Justin (2), greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai, Klennex, Luis (2), Scott, Soul (2), Leon (3), Ed, Luster (3), Zylo) - 26
Lopen - 20
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Moltar Status: augh
Link/Zack/Duke/Altair - Bracket: Link > Shadow - Vote: Link (181/256)

Hmm...having laptop troubles tonight. You may just want to post your own write-up here, Crew peeps.
---
This is not my GameFOX sig...
Therefore, it doesn't exist!

Lopen | Posted 11/5/2008 10:31:03 PM | message detail | #388 | filter

Well, if I must...! Fear not, even if they forget I shall do the analysis work of six men.

Lopen's Analysis

"X, don't you just love the weather for the match today? Cherry blossoms dancing through the bright morning sky. Dreamy"
"Oh, Zero, these cherry blossoms are so significant to me. When I think of all the things we've been through, I can't help but compare our experiences to these wonderful creatio--"

*click*

A bright light caused X to snap to attention. X had no idea what was causing those hallucinations, but he knew he couldn't afford to dwell on it. This was bad. He was late for his match, and in this four way format, not showing up for a match almost always meant your bitter end. He began to dash off towards the battlefield... off in the distance, he heard the booming ravings of a madman he'd not yet encountered.

"I'm you! I'm your shadow!"

What did this even mean? He heard the fat Italian who'd bested him last round mutter something off in reply... but he couldn't quite make it out. X tried not to concern himself with this as he picked up the pace.

"Can you understand what it's like to know that you're garbage since the day you were born?! ... you got all the old man's dominant genes. I got all the flawed, recessive genes."

X could now make out the plumber in from last round in the distance, a thoroughly confused expression on his face... he frantically spat out some words in Italian and made some interesting gestures as an explosion knocked him off his feet. X continued to accelerate towards the battlefield, but continued to observe what little of the combat he could make out as he advanced.

"You see? You can't protect anyone, not even yourself!"

X watched as the expression on the mustached combatant's face changed to one of desperation. He thrust his hand into the air and sent a fireball sailing through the air at his assailant.

"You'd point a weapon at your own brother?

X rounded the final stretch and, fortuitously, came up behind Liquid Snake. "That's enough," X said, as he forced his buster up against Liquid Snake's back. Liquid Snake, unintimidated, ignored the presence of the buster and turned around. "Enough what you bloody android?" Explosions rocked the battlefield as combat continued. X was confused. "Wait... that... wasn't you I heard?"

Lopen | Posted 11/5/2008 10:31:15 PM | message detail | #389 | filter

Liquid looked amused. "Haha... you like my work, I see? I saw the jealousy within him... I knew that this could be harnessed. I spent two rounds with him... training him so that he could take his place of dominance... once and for all be the superior brother! I call him... LIQUID PLUMBER!!"

"You... you're mad! Making the brothers destroy each other won't help you or your situation with Solid Snake at all!"

Liquid smirked at that. "No? Why don't you take a look at the fruits of my labor?" And with that, Liquid stepped to the side and gestured towards the battered bodies of what were once the legendary Super Mario Brothers. X was in utter shock... "You..."

"Oh, don't be so glum, Mega Man X. This battle is ours for the taking. You and I... we shall realize our destiny and outdo our counterparts in divison 6! We've defeated the Mario Brothers! They'll be struggling with... haha... a cube! Enjoy this, X!" As the lights in the arena began to fade, X kneeled before the fallen Mario and Luigi and silently swore that he'd make things right... but for now, there was nothing he could do. They'd advanced, and that was that. He'd have to exact retribution on Liquid next round.

~to be continued

Lopen's prediction:
Mega Man X - 32.40%
Liquid Snake - 24.02%
Mario - 22.55%
Luigi - 21.03%

(My actual analysis here, summed up... Luigi SFFed Bowser harder proportionally than Mario did, and among actual fans of the Mario franchise, Luigi will be the favorite. Yes, Mario does better in the favorite Mario character polls, but he's getting a lot of votes there just for being the figurehead of the franchise. A lot of those votes will be shot by Liquid Snake and Mega Man X. Liquid sneaks out of here due to sticking out like a sore thumb.)
---
Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe

KamikazePotato | Posted 11/5/2008 10:31:17 PM | message detail | #390 | filter

KP Guest 'Upset' Special:
Liquid Snake vs. Luigi vs. Mario vs. Mega Man X

Man, I like Liquid, but he couldn't have picked a worse division to go on a run in. Bowser vs. Luigi vs. Mario would've been great. Guess we'll have to settle for an epic Luigi vs. Mario battle!

By stats alone, this match is pretty much a lock. Liquid, while much stronger than last year, still isn't on Mario or X's level. X almost beat Mario last round; Mario was being hindered by Zelda and Mudkip, but that's still an impressive feat. With the way Mega Man has been performing I doubt he would've come close. Luigi is one of the few Nintendo characters who still seems up to form, but he was behind Liquid last match with Bowser hindering him. Mario is going to hurt him a lot more. Only Mario and X are advancing, and X>Mario is very very likely, as Luigi is bound to hurt Mario more than Zelda/Mudkip.

Now let me tell why all that logic is crap and anything can happen this match.

It's LUIGI VS. MARIO. Is there a single relationship in the contest with more chances for something crazy to happen? Maybe Mario vs. Sonic before Sonic became a joke, but that's about it. Luigi being Mario's shadow, eternal understudy, king of second bananas ect. is one of the most well-known relationships in gaming. Nintendo knows it and plays on it all the damn time. It's as simple as Player 1 vs. Player 2. Luigi vs. Mario is this match; X and Liquid
are just along for the ride. For those reasons, I believe both Luigi and Mario will overperform in this match, as they completely steal it's spotlight. It helps that they're in the middle of the pic, right next to each other.

Now. I've heard some people say that Mario will SFF Luigi into the ground. This is complete crap, and I'll be very susprised if it happens tonight. Luigi is not a character riding on Mario's coattails. He has a very distinct fanbase from Mario, and when picked with a choice between the two I've found that people often go with Luigi due to him being the underdog and having an actual personality. Nintendo has really developed Luigi and included him a lot more in games recently, all while playing up on his relationship with Mario, which why he I think he boosted the most from The Boost and has decreased the least with the De-Boost. In summary: Luigi rSFFing Mario is far more likely than Mario SFFing him.

And Luigi probably will rSFF. Maybe a lot, maybe a little, but his name appears before Mario's in the poll, voters seem to go for the underdog these days, and this is a day 25 years in the making.
Win or lose, the man in green will impress here today.

However...overlap is overlap. While being the center of the match give both of them better chances at advancing, X and Liquid are both strong enough to take advantage of it. X is still the favorite for first... although he might not even advance. His R1 performance still worries me somewhat, even if taking anything from a match with Mudkip is asking for trouble. Liquid easily stands out the most and could definitely slip in there if the LFF gets really bad.

But, in the end...I have to go with X>Luigi. X just looked too damn impressive last round, and a part of me still can't get over the Liquid who folded like wet cardboard in R2 last year. As for why I chose Luigi over Mario...if you have to ask that question, you don't know me well enough.

KP's Bracket: X>Mario
KP's Vote: oh gee I wonder who
KP's Prediction:

Liquid Snake: 23%
Luigi: 25%
Mario: 24%
Mega Man X: 28%

if I'm the only one to post this do I win by default

---
Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10

Karma Hunter | Posted 11/5/2008 10:31:32 PM | message detail | #391 | filter

Karma Hunter's Post-Election Analysis

'I'm going back to Indiana~'

Well, this match pretty much takes a heap of my favorite characters and stirs them into a swirl of awesomeness. Oh... and I guess Luigi is there as well (darn you Bowser for failing on me).

In one corner, we have Mario. Pretty much the only Nintendo character that DOESN'T deserve to fall based on game awesomeness (the other is Samus, but MP games aren't doing anything at this point and I think it's a possibility that she looks better as Ninty gets worse). Of course, being the face of the damn company, he seems to have suffered the most.

Squeezing into the same corner as him is Luigi. Some Mario fans will nonsensically vote for the guy in green, hurting Mario a tad. But if he cracks double digits I'll consider it a miracle (and a travesty!).

After these we have Mega Man X, who shocked the world by nearly beating Mario last round. Stronger than MM? It's a good bet, especially seeing how bad the Blue Bomber has looked as of late. Imagine if he'd been in MM's spot in 2k2... or Snake's, for that matter. Nothing is assured with all the SFF being tossed around last round though, so now we've got a bit of a wild card going on here. Mario will be hurt, but how strong will that entity hold up?

And finally, there's Liquid Snake. By far the most independent of the group, even a bad picture couldn't keep him from impressing last round. Basically, I keep waiting for the guy to fold and disappoint, but for two matches running he hasn't.

...I think that luck runs out here, though. Two midcarders from a weakened Nintendo and Mr. Objection, sure. But two Noble Nine caliber opponents? Liquid won't be dropping below Luigi or anything silly, but he should be (relatively) safely out of contention.

So this comes down basically to Mario and MMX. And whlie MMX shocked me, I thought for sure he'd hold that lead. Mario coming back, bad as it looked, gives me faith here - because I can't see him not obliterating Luigi. And the less Luigi has, and the more Liquid folds, the better the plumber is set to do. This all requires a specific, certain set of conditions, but I think everything comes through for the plumber. Certainly not the double inside straight a certain self-proclaimed "maverick" needed yesterday or anything.

And besides http://kotaku.com/5074660/election-2008-mario-casts-his-vote he deserves it dammit look at him

Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Mario with 31.24%, Mega Man X with 29.84%, Liquid Snake with 24.5%, Luigi with 14.42%.

Upset Probability: 0%

Denial is destiny, *****es. yes we can
---
turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in

KamikazePotato | Posted 11/5/2008 10:33:31 PM | message detail | #392 | filter

Did our collective subconscious decide for us all to post at the same time or something?

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10

Lopen | Posted 11/5/2008 10:35:15 PM | message detail | #393 | filter

We are the new analysis crew.

Rise, brothers. We march on Moltar and his crew of stagnation.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe

ZFS | Posted 11/5/2008 10:36:19 PM | message detail | #394 | filter

Big match. This has gotten a lot of debate over the past week after Mario just barely slipped by X and Liquid beat a 'LFF'd Luigi. The consensus on the crew is probably X > Mario, because most believe that Luigi's going to be a significant detriment to Mario, moreso than Zelda and Mudkip. I've never bought into that idea, though. The worst opponent Luigi could have drawn in this match is Mario - he's going to get hit pretty hard with SFF.

Mario's draw this round is a lot better for him than what he pulled last round, which was pretty much an all-Nintendo affair. With Zelda and Mudkip taking up a good 40% of that Nintendo vote by themselves, Mario was bound to be hurt. Zelda held up surprisingly well against a guy who usually has no problems dishing out SFF, which is probably a bit harder for him this year in this format than it would be under normal circumstances. Some have argued that Zelda and Mario don't have a real direct connection, but I've always found this crazy. The Mario and Zelda fanbases no doubt have overlap - these aren't unique fanbases you're dealing with. They all pull for votes from the same pool.

Taking Zelda away is going to be a big boon to Mario, moreso than it will be to X or anyone else. He won't get all of her votes, but I'd be surprised if he doesn't take a big chunk of them for himself. He's the Nintendo character in this match - it's only natural that most of the fanbase would be behind him. Sure, Luigi is certainly has more in common, they're directly linked together by the same series fanbase, not just by company. But I think that's better for Mario and worse for Luigi.

I won't deny that Luigi has his fans who think he's the best Mario character by and far - but Bowser has those same fans, and Yoshi has those same fans. Put them up against Mario and many of them are going to abandon ship. They'll keep a smaller, core group that loves them, but that's about it. There is a point that if any Mario character could hold up against Mario, it'd be Luigi, due to their history, but I don't buy it happening. I don't see Mario and Luigi splitting the fanbase so much as Mario taking the lion's share of the votes.

Some have talked up Luigi's ability to hold up with SFF, but if you look at the past two contests the big SFF matches are against Ganondorf and Bowser, neither which have proven to handle SFF all that well. Ganon's biggest claim is not having been SFF'd by Samus, and Bowser...well, he's looked pretty rough for a few years running now - everything pointed to Luigi doing what he did to Bowser.

Mudkip being gone should also help out Mario. I wouldn't say that the Mario and Pokemon fanbases are as connected as Mario and Zelda, and I think Pokemon is probably the most independent of all the Nintendo franchises - those fans will vote for Pokemon over almost anything. But with 'Kip not being an option here, Mario's not going to be losing any potential votes.

As far as X is concerned, he'll do well here, probably putting up similar numbers to what he did last round. I think the margin between he and Mario will be bigger, but he'll still advance with ease. Liquid did take advantage of SFF last round, but the competition here is just too steep for him to be competitive. We're talking about a Noble Niner and a Noble Nine proxy - Liquid ain't strong enough to handle that, a problem that Zack will run into next round.

We'll see how this plays out. I can't say I'll be too surprised if Luigi holds up better than I'm giving him, somewhere in the high-teens is probably more likely, but if he's 20%+ here I'll admit to be way off base on this one. But hey this isn't exactly unbiased Mario's too awesome time to confirm the P1F 'heroic' vs 'envy' the choice is clear

http://xf3.xanga.com/3a3a105405c3251617937/w34631826.jpg

would you dare vote against this

Prediction: Mario - 35% ; MMX - 30% ; Liquid - 20% ; Luigi - 15%
Vote: Mario - the superior brother player one for life

KamikazePotato | Posted 11/5/2008 10:38:15 PM | message detail | #395 | filter

Ah, but we all have the Mario Brothers placing in different fashions. We shall not be brothers, but sworn rivals, eternally locked in a 3-way stalemate until kingdom come.

*refreshes*

The forces of Mario in 1st have grown too powerful! To arms!

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10

Lopen | Posted 11/5/2008 10:41:18 PM | message detail | #396 | filter

Someone please for the love of gawd pick X > Mario.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe

DpObliVion | Posted 11/5/2008 10:42:16 PM | message detail | #397 | filter

No.

DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

This is a big one here that got pretty interesting after the last round. Or did it? With Mario narrowly defeating Mega Man X in the second round, the third round depends on the difference in SFF from Zelda and Luigi on Mario, and I have arguments supporting both outcomes.

Outcome 1: Luigi, being closely tied to Mario and not much worse of a character, creates more of an even split among the fanbase, creating enough SFF that Mega Man X takes first.

Outcome 2: Zelda, being from a more separate and stronger fanbase, hurts Mario more than Luigi would, since he's very closely tied to him and clearly inferior, therefore makes a win for Mario even easier than last round.

For whatever reason, I had Bowser in this match instead of Luigi, so I pretty confidently went with Mario > Mega Man X thinking Mario would kick Bowser's ass in the SFF battle. Luigi makes things a bit more interesting though, as Mario is rather uninteresting. I, for one, voted Mario last round, and am voting Luigi this round. I think I'm leaning towards Outcome 1 here.

However, earlier on I strongly believed that Zelda would hold up relatively well in being SFFed by Mario because of her connection to the LoZ fanbase (after all, the only character who can beat Mario with SFF is Link). This is what got me to put Mario > Zelda > Knuckles in the first, despite my heavy bias for Knuckles that should've had me picking the echidna.

So, in the end, I remember why I believed in Zelda in the first place, and I believe now that Luigi's presence will make things easier for Mario this time around. It's not like Luigi has anything besides the underdog-sidekick factor to get you to vote for him over Mario, anyway (my Luigi > Mario preference is based solely on the original SMB with Luigi only being available to the second player in a 2P game, so he was cool in that regard, but what's he been since)?

Also, how much did Mudkip hold Mario back last round? I suspect Liquid Snake would affect Mario and MMX a bit more evenly.

Dp's bracket says: Mario > Mega Man X

Dp's prediction is: Mario > Mega Man X

Mario - 32%
Mega Man X - 29%
Liquid Snake - 23.50%
Luigi - 15.50%

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

ZFS | Posted 11/5/2008 10:42:58 PM | message detail | #398 | filter

Another Mario victory analysis

Keep 'em comin' !

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http://i33.tinypic.com/2s0xn3o.gif
http://i34.tinypic.com/15wdsu0.gif

Moltar's Analysis

augh laptop

Well, here's a summary. Mario SFFs Luigi unlike he did with Zelda allowing him to take first. Liquid takes third due to being overwhelmed by strong competition like Mario and MMX. Luigi takes last.

Mario - 32% :: MMX - 30% :: Liquid - 22% :: Luigi 16%

Yoblazer's Analysis

Luigi's presence and extreme fanbase overlap with Mario allows Mega Man X to turn the tables from last round. Liquid finishes a distant third but comfortably ahead of fourth place Luigi. Weegee avoids the doubling but doesn't look all that special against his bigger, fatter bro. I wish I could have written a real analysis for this one, but I'm going to be busy until the match starts.

Liquid Snake - 22%
Luigi - 17%
Mario - 30%
Mega Man X - 31%

Transience's Analysis

OBAMA

I've been looking forward to this match - maybe my most anticipated of the contest thus far. quick summary time:

Liquid Snake

this guy is crazy this year. Liquid has gone from being a pretty average guy to a guy who seems completely legit, a guy who could get 45% on Luigi straight up and can take advantage of two Mario characters to cruise to an easy victory. given that we're doing this AGAIN.. isn't him advancing again possible?

I say yes. with two Mario guys and another pseudo-Nintendo character in X, Liquid is by far the most unique. it's tough to bet on it, but I'd say he's a very defendable upset pick.

Luigi

the obvious pick for fourth. the question here: how much does he get with Mario in the poll? Luigi's playing the role of spoiler here: he clearly seems to be popular amongst the Mario fanbase, but if enough people prefer him to Mario, Mario's going to get squeezed.

Mario

Mario's never seemed to be all that popular amongst the Mario fanbase: he's certainly no Cloud or Link. Mario's appeal seems to come from being so well-known and accessible, but when given more options Mario suffers a bit. this is a tough poll for Mario, having an anchor like Luigi attached to him and another guy he shared a system with in MMX.

Mega Man X

X looked to be on his way to an awesome upset until he pulled the classic Mega Man thing of dropping off the face of the earth after three hours. Mario took over from there. despite X being technically new, he's probably the one we have the least questions about here. we know what he's going to do; it's all about what Mario can do with Luigi in the poll, and how Liquid holds up against top-tier characters.

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the main question about this match: what hurts Mario more, Luigi or Zelda? (and Mudkip, if you want to throw that thing in)

my answer: Zelda and Mudkip. Luigi is closer related to Mario, of course, but Mario can also "SFF" him; there's no such thing as a Mario character SFFing a Zelda character. Zelda hurts Mario because the Zelda fanbase is just bigger - it's a bigger series here. Luigi won't crumble or anything, but do I think he can get 20%? no. plus, given that the 'kip didn't look static at all, he probably has some Nintendo fans. so I give Mario the edge over MMX here. I picked MMX over Mario here on the assumption that Bowser would be here, and it was a damn good pick - too bad Bowser decided to suck balls.

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This is not my GameFOX sig...
Therefore, it doesn't exist!

the secondary question: can Liquid take advantage of his newfound popularity and this Nintendo-heavy division? I want so badly to say yes. I think he'll do very well, have a fantastic overnight vote and potentially be right there with Mario and X come morning time. I just don't think it's enough, though. he's just out of his league here, Noble Nine characters vs. a guy who can't beat a third-tier Nintendo character. there's no shame in that, but we're talking about friggin' Mario and Mega Man here. tough to pull the trigger there.

Mario is safe
Luigi is no Zelda
tough luck, Liquid Snake

transience's prediction:

Mario - 31.55%
Mega Man X - 28.66%
Liquid Snake - 26.34%
Luigi - 13.45%

Yesssss, now here's the Character Battle I love to see. Cloud and Link playing an interstellar game of HORSE- "match this!" "no, you match THIS!" Ah, just like old times! No matter how you slice it, Link holds the upper hand in the '08 version of their rivalry so far thanks to this performance- I'm seeing Oracles for him at 45, 46, 47... to barely fall under 50% all day is truly astounding. Oh, and Zack is once again putting on a very nice show of his own. Assuming Liquid doesn't crash the party, we could be in for one heck of a threeway between Mario and X and himself, something I never thought I'd find myself saying two months back.

Speaking of Liquid, let's see if he'll have any real chance to ruin that threeway, starting with some stats!

X-Stats from Round Two

...nope, still don't have them! But shortly, dude. Shortly.

Kind of weird circumstances whereby the real question of this match isn't how Liquid compares to X or X compares to Mario, but instead how Luigi compares to Zelda. With that Princess in the mix Mario very nearly embarrassed himself by tripping up against MMX. The good news for the plumber is that there's no way Luigi manages 20% of the vote like Zelda shocked us by doing. The BAD news is, you'd have to imagine Mr. L hurts his big brother much moreso than Zelda did, at least proportionally to Mega Man X. That means Mario's only hope for an outright victory would be to ground and pound Luigi right out of the gate, leaving him beaten down far enough to not mess up the morning vote he needed to power past X last time around. So, will he be able to pull it off? My money's on...

No! Nothing against Mario, but Luigi's been making serious strides ever since '05, and with the way he has held up against solid Nintendo competition in Kirby and Ganon and Bowser, I'm starting to put more faith in those Mario character polls that list him right near the top of the series' food chain. Now naturally Mario is still going to make him look bad, but I think the Player Two appeal will be enough the Bros. shared fanbase beyond where Zelda took it, and that ought to be just enough to allow MMX and his awesome character design to sneak through for the win.

Now, we know Liquid eats Nintendo LFF alive, and we know Luigi's going to be taking a bite out of the company's flagship... might he also have a chance at the upset? Nay! That 30% was nice, but there's a world of difference when you sub out Bowser for Mario and PW for MMX, and considering how he'd probably need something pretty darn close to that R2 percentage in order to advance, I don't see the Blue Bomber or the Red Plumber being in any real danger during these upcoming 24 hours.

Alright, so if Mr. M and Mr. X engage in another slugfest while This Arm hangs around looking respectable and Mr. L gets pretty beat up, that would probably come out something like... *ponders, pots, and stirs*

Mega Man X - 31.07%
Mario - 30.97%
Liquid Snake - 22.92%
Luigi - 15.04%

That looks... pretty shaky. But I don't know which way to lean, so that's understandable!

Ngamer Says: MMX > Mario

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