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Character Battle VII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

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hailEC | Posted 10/29/2008 9:12:24 PM | message detail | #251 | filter

At least Luster went Squall > Sora... I would have had the same pick if I weren't a lazy bastard!

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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/29/2008 9:14:26 PM | message detail | #252 | filter

Are you serious.

*one* of you took Sora, and it was the guest.

Are you guys asking for it or something?

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10

DpObliVion | Posted 10/29/2008 9:18:45 PM | message detail | #253 | filter

No chance for Sora.

DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

And now we get to one of the more interesting matches of Round 2, with four strong competitors: two from Final Fantasy, and two from Nintendo.

It is probably agreed upon that of the four, the strongest here is Squall. Yoshi and Sora are not too far behind, and fairly close to each other, while Fox is certainly the weakest of the four, but still a pretty popular Nintendo option.

So this match all comes down to how SFF goes. Not only does Squall have the most strength, but he may also have the most devoted fanbase of the four. I also think he SFFs Sora more, while Fox and Yoshi are closer together, so Squall takes first here.

As for second....I would honestly probably take Yoshi over Squall one on one. If we're talking two characters of fairly equal strength, I'll take the one winning an SFF battle over the one losing an SFF battle. Fox will hurt Yoshi quite a bit, but Squall will hurt Sora more.

Fox may even take 3rd here, I think he and Yoshi split more evenly than Squall and Sora would, but I'll stick with Sora in third because he's already quite a bit stronger than Fox, and Fox is still getting SFFed, too.

I'd consider a Yoshi > Squall upset before Squall > Sora, though. There's hardly any doubt for me that Squall and Yoshi advance here (besides the fact that I've missed five matches in a row).

Dp's bracket says: Squall > Yoshi

Dp's prediction is: Squall > Yoshi

Squall - 33%
Yoshi - 26.50%
Sora - 22.50%
Fox - 18%

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Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/29/2008 9:21:59 PM | message detail | #254 | filter

*one* of you took Sora, and it was the guest.

I may very well be wrong, but it's a risk worth it here. I did lay down some good reasoning behind Squall > Sora though.
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ZFS | Posted 10/29/2008 9:24:49 PM | message detail | #255 | filter

whoops forgot to send this in mario galaxying

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GREETINGS CHEESE POPSICLE THE NUMBER YOU HAVE DIALED IS CURRENTLY OUT OF PORK CHOPS

Ngamer64 | Posted 10/29/2008 10:31:11 PM | message detail | #256 | filter

I guess we WERE asking for it!

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Oblivious Dp | Posted 10/29/2008 10:33:47 PM | message detail | #257 | filter

Augh, this contest is pissing me off....

Let's see, what do I have in my bracket tomorrow....Cloud > Mewtwo. That can't possibly go wrong, can it?

Yeah, it's definitely gonna be Cloud > Pac-Man tomorrow.

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Love...Obsession...DpObliVion... by Calvin Klein - DebonairBassman127
User ID 900001 - So close, yet so far....

KamikazePotato | Posted 10/29/2008 10:48:25 PM | message detail | #258 | filter

*cough*

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10

Chaotic Mind | Posted 10/30/2008 12:31:44 AM | message detail | #259 | filter

Heh, the name of your alt seems particularly fitting right now DP =p

'Course i have yoshi in 2nd in my bracket, so not like i can say much.
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transience | Posted 10/30/2008 3:20:18 AM | message detail | #260 | filter

whoa, Fox.

I figured this poll would be 60/40 Square/Nintendo, but I didn't expect Squall to suck so bad and I didn't expect Fox to do so well. Fox is just killing Yoshi here. hilarious.
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xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la

satai_delenn | Posted 10/30/2008 4:25:50 AM | message detail | #261 | filter

Oh man. This match is currently amazing. The Character Battle...is light!

If Sora screws this up, I will utterly give up on this contest.
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Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE!

Ryu Hayabusa.........13.95% 18682
Zero..............................21.4% 28658
Solid Snake..............43.55% 58327
Vivi Ornitier..................21.1% 28251
TOTAL VOTES......................133918

What Happened - Snake dominates this fourpack pulling out numbers better than most expected. Zero and Vivi battle it out for second, and while Vivi looked good during the first half, the ASV was what pushed Zero ahead. Ryu...try and stay out of Snake's path next time.

Why it Happened - Ryu bombed for the same reason he did in 2007, Snake. Vivi/Zero was expected to be close, but few expected Snake to do this well. Looks like the low ceilings the stronger characters had in Round 1 weren't that bad at all, as they're retaining a lot of that percentage in Round 2.

What Will Happen - Mega/Cube/Snake/Zero....gg Mega Man

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay everyone (except HM and Guest)!

Yoblazer - 29
Ngamer - 27
HM - 26
Tran - 25
Moltar - 25
Guest - 23
Lopen - 22

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Leon gets the point for Snake and Ryu, Tran gets the point for Zero, Molt and Yo get points for Vivi.

Yoblazer - 34
Tran - 30
Moltar - 30
Ngamer - 29
HM - 29
Guest (War (2), KP (2), Dp, Justin, greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai, Klennex, Luis (2), Scott, Soul (2), Leon (3), Ed, Luster) - 22
Lopen - 17
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Moltar Status: augh
Sora/Fox/Squall/Yoshi - Bracket: Squall > Yoshi - Vote: Yoshi (149/208)

LeonhartFour | Posted 10/30/2008 9:48:03 AM | message detail | #263 | filter

All right, shootin' for the most Guest points here!

And it doesn't really matter how well Squall does here. He's doomed next round anyway now that Sora's going with him. He looked bad in round 2 against Sora last year, too. SFF matches are weird anyway, especially when you've got two of them going on at the same time. Looks like Squall's basically putting up the same numbers on him, too.

What happened in round 3 then?
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi

Well, in Round 2 I think Aeris hurt Squall much more than she hurt Sora (if at all). With Aeris gone for Round 3, Squall was able to do better.

So if Aeris could take advantage, Cloud should destroy Squall (Cloud > Sora oh geez).
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Moltar Status: augh
Sora/Fox/Squall/Yoshi - Bracket: Squall > Yoshi - Vote: Yoshi (149/208)

voltch | Posted 10/30/2008 3:56:05 PM | message detail | #265 | filter

Cloud>Mewto is now a real possibility.
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!

LeonhartFour | Posted 10/30/2008 4:11:44 PM | message detail | #266 | filter

Real possibility? Cloud > Mewtwo should be expected at this point.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi

augh the one day the regulars actually send in their write-ups early, the guest lags behind

c'mon justin
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Moltar Status: augh
Sora/Fox/Squall/Yoshi - Bracket: Squall > Yoshi - Vote: Yoshi (149/208)

Ngamer64 | Posted 10/30/2008 8:12:14 PM | message detail | #268 | filter

Slow your roll there, Justin. Can't let Moltar put these writeups online THIS early- would be against tradition.

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Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/30/2008 8:18:22 PM | message detail | #269 | filter

Moltar, I'm going to post it myself this time. I don't want what happened last time to happen again. I hope you don't mind ^_^
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Use Coppertone

Ngamer64 | Posted 10/30/2008 8:33:53 PM | message detail | #270 | filter

Is it something like what happened when I hired you as Leaderboard Updater, JC?

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Ngamer64 | Posted 10/30/2008 8:52:05 PM | message detail | #271 | filter

Well since it's too late for the rest of the Crew to change their predictions, it should be safe for me to drop the atomic bomb that's going to assure I have by far the best pred of the bunch for tomorrow!

Ready?

Massive underperformance from Mewtwo tomorrow... because the kiddies won't be propping him up during the ASV... because they'll be trick or treating all afternoon, followed by wolfing down candy all evening, followed by going to bed early with sick feelings in their stomachs at night!

(See, this is the kind of beyond metagame analysis that's going to assure me a clean sweep of all three Crew competitions this season.)

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Division 6: Round 2 - Match 44 – Cloud Strife vs. Midna vs. Mewtwo vs. Pac-Man

Moltar’s Analysis

Cloud
Round 1 - 59.80% vs. Midna, Miles and Axel

Failing to break 60% on these scrubs? Cloud > Link yeah right

Midna
Round 1 - 20.37% vs. Cloud, Miles and Axel

Midna….boost? She looks better here than she did last year

Mewtwo
Round 1 - 41.83% vs. Yoshi, CATS and Nathan

Mewtwo proves that he is the real deal (you watchin’ lucario?)

Pac-Man
Round 1 - 25.09% vs. Squall, CATS and Nathan

Pac, unlike Ness, manages to not fail and get to R2.

Previously, Cloud used the power of the Contest Note to determine all the losers of Round 1. After his judgments, he was met by a Contestgami named Allen, who informed him more about the Contest Note. Then, an additional bonus match was announced, which was only a trap by a mysterious figure named “El” to prove his theory about someone controlling the results of the contest.

3: Discovered

The Setting - The Contest Stadium, backstage

Cloud: Well, today is my Round 2 match. I’ve already written down who will lose today, so I’m not worried about losing.

Allen: Still, what happens if something wrong happens…again.

*Cloud stopped and thought about what Allen said.*

Cloud: *thinking* He’s right. In various Round 2 matches, some of my results weren’t happening as I wrote them in the Contest Note. I had those damn jokes, L and Cube losing, but they advanced. It’s strange, because everything worked fine in Round 1. Also, after reviewing the matches, in the ones that had different results, the losers stopped just before the finishing blow was dealt to them. It means that the result was still pre-determined, but-

Announcer: Today’s match will begin shortly!

Allen: Looks like you’re up, big guy.

Cloud: Yeah *He picks up his Buster Sword* I’ll worry about that went wrong later.

*Cloud then heads out to the battlefield, with Allen behind him. He enters the stadium to a loud applause*

Cloud: *thinking* Look at them, they’re all cheering for me. If I revealed that I am Killa, most would certainly shun me now. But soon, they’ll see what I’m doing is right. I’ll convert everyone, even you, El.

*From the top of the stadium, a female with binoculars is peering down onto the battlefield. Her eyes then light up as she spots something, and a big smile stretches across her face*

*The match goes on, and once it ends, everyone heads home, including Cloud.*

Allen: You did well today, Cloud.

Cloud: Of course, another easy victory. I think I’ll get some rest, and continue delivering judgment tomorrow.

*Just then, the doorbell rings*

Cloud: A visitor? At this hour? I’m not expecting anyone…maybe someone is on to me. No, I’m being paranoid, I’ve done nothing out of the ordinary. The Contest Note is safely hidden away, so it wouldn’t hurt to just answer the door.

*Cloud walks over to the door and opens it*

???: Clouuuud!!!

*Cloud is immediately tackled to the ground by a woman*

Cloud: Who the…Samus, why are you here?

Samus: Hey Cloud, what’s up. I was wondering if I could see your Contest Note.

Cloud: *eyes lighting up in surprise, thinking* What!? How does she know about the Contest Note. That’s impossible. I haven’t even talked to her since getting this Note. Could she be El, is that how she knows?

Samus: Hmmm? Where is it?

Cloud: What are you talking about? What’s a Contest Note? *Cloud closes the front door*

Samus: You don’t have to play dumb. I’ve already seen your Contestgami, I have one too! Come in, CJay!”

*Just then, another Contestgami entered the house*

CJay: Hello there.

Samus: See, I knew you had a Contest Note because when you went out for your match today, your Contestgami was with you! CJay told me that Contest Note owners can see other Contestgamis, so that’s how I knew you were the one!

Cloud: Then how come I couldn’t see your Contestgami when you had your match?

Samus: Because I got mine after my match. I just saw a black book labeled on the ground in front of me as I was leaving the stadium. I picked it up, and then CJay explained the rest to me. Since then, I’ve been writing results down, see!

*Samus pulled out her Contest Note and showed Cloud the names*

Cloud: These names correspond to the characters who lost!

Samus: Well duh, that’s what you did in Round 1, right?

Cloud: No, I mean, I wrote down names, but the wrong results were happening. I guess since you wrote down the losers names before I did, your Notebook overruled mine.

Allen: Heh, that makes sense now that I think about it.

*Cloud then shot Allen a glare, angry that he didn’t tell him about this*

Cloud: Anyway, you know we have to keep these secret, right?

Samus: Of course, I’m totally on your side, and I’m hoping this El guy leaves us alone.

Cloud: He won’t. But if we act smart, we won’t get caught. You’ll have to do everything I say though. Also, did you happen to see anyone following you while you came here?

Samus: Um..no, how about you Ceej?

CJay: No, I didn’t see anyone.

Cloud: Alright, we’ll need to stay in close touch, so we’re going to start dating and-

Samus: DATING? YAY!!!!!!!!

Cloud: Calm down, you fangirl. We’re only doing it so no one gets suspicious of us. Also, I’m going to need you to stop writing names in your Notebook. From now on, every name that is written will be decided by me.

Samus: You got it! I trust you know what you’re doing, and I just want to see you fulfill your goal. *hugs Cloud*

Cloud: *thinking* Yes…this could work out for me pretty well now. The numbers are against you, El. I’m going to end up winning in the end, and I’ll use Samus to get me to the top.

*outside of Cloud’s home, a hooded figure walks away*

???: Cloud…I’ve got my eyes on you.

~*To Be Continued*~

Cloud easily takes first here. Pac is looking to get killed with Cloud here, so I think the battle for second is between Mewtwo and Midna, and I’m giving it to Mewtwo. He looked very good in Round 1, and solidified my stance on him as being a solid midcarder.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Cloud > Mewtwo

Moltar’s Prediction is: Cloud: 49% - Mewtwo: 23% - Midna: 14% - Pac-Man: 14%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Today's match should be about normal. Cloud is going to wreck the poll and Mewtwo should take an easy second. I've entertained the idea of Midna pulling off an upset, but after looking at last year, Midna fell apart when another Nintendo character was thrown into the mix, even if it was Samus. After Mewtwo wrecked a pack full of Nintendo characters, he'll probably do it again here.

I'm not expecting anything from Pac-Man, though. When you add characters people care about, he's going to do pretty badly. It wouldn't be too surprising if he's in the single digits with Cloud sucking up all the percentage. Then again, he might do better if Midna sucks it up here thanks to Mewtwo. We'll see how it goes.

Prediction: Cloud - 51% ; Mewtwo - 22% ; Midna - 17% ; Pac-Man - 10%
Vote: Cloud

Yoblazer’s Analysis

I promise to make this the shortest one yet. We've got Cloud against three lesser Nintendo-ish characters (Midna, Mewtwo, and Pac-Man), so I shouldn't drag on too long. Even with his weird looking picture, Cloud will still dominate these guys. He'll probably collect a cool majority of the votes, but I'll profess illogical Midna/Mewtwo fanboyism and give him an even 50%. Take a lap and hit the showers while I talk about the Nintendo entrants, pretty boy!

In all honesty, it might be unfair to call Mewtwo a "lesser" Nintendo guy after what he's done the last two years. He finished respectably close to Bowser in 2007 and put up a huge 42% in his opening match this year. He also crushed Pac-Man along the way, so the bubbly eating machine (*wonders what a Pac-Man/Kirby match would be like*) won't pose any threat here. Mewtwo is the huge favorite, and unless Midna does the unthinkable and draws on some hidden Zelda power (something that seems very improbable given her historic weakness), he'll cruise about two miles behind Cloud and a mile in front of the other challengers. Boring match, but bring on Round 3!

Cloud Strife - 50%
Midna - 13%
Mewtwo - 24%
Pac-Man - 13%

Lopen’s Analysis

Okay so now let's get to the real debate here: Who would win in a fight. Now, we all know that Mewtwo can control the axis of the earth with the power of his mind while simultaneously frying the front row's brain in a skillet, Crossfiyah will be quick to tell you all about this. However, it can be argued that Pac-Man gains complete invulnerability to physical harm from the power pellet. I mean, if ghosts can't hurt him, clearly Mewtwo can't hurt him. Midna... well she's covered wars, you know... I think she can only be hurt by the Master Sword and Silver Bombs on the third day before the moon hits the earth but only after the silent protagonist has spent 5 days sailing but we'll ignore that.

Cloud... now Cloud... Cloud has an airplane wing. He can spin the airplane wing at mach 7 if provoked, creating a pocket dimension which protects him from all physical harm. He can also use the sword to invert causality on his omnislash, meaning that if someone attempts to dodge it they've already been hit with it. So that's about game. Cloud hides in his pocket dimension till Mewtwo makes Pac-Man into a fine puree and begins to eat, then Cloud kills him in one causality inverted omnislash, being that Mewtwo's durability is merely above average.

... ... I'm sorry, I just wanted more than this as my analysis:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2870
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2866

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3267

Lopen's prediction:
Cloud - 45.07%
Mewtwo - 22.50%
Pac-Man - 18.33%
Midna - 14.10%

Transience’s Analysis

haha, Mario characters suck so bad this year. at this point I'm coming up with anything to see them lose. MMX > Liquid Snake? brilliant!

'kay, let's do this quick:

- Mewtwo's the only legit character in this poll besides Cloud, and should beat Midna down in a similar fashion to how he beat Ness down (though not as badly - less overlap)
- Pac-Man should get killed here with the introduction of Cloud, who isn't iconic in the oldschool Mario way but completely clobbers last round's Nintendo pack when it comes to casual appeal.
- if Link didn't have two Square characters and one easily-SFFed Nintendo character, this would be the blowout of the round. instead, a mere 50% will have to do.

transience's prediction:

Cloud Strife - 48.91%
Mewtwo - 23.55%
Midna - 13.09%
Pac-Man - 14.45%

Ngamer’s Analysis

Oh wow... even with it busting up both my bracket and my Oracle, and with Sora being quite possibly my most hated Contest character, I can't help but laugh at this result. What the junk happened here? Well the way I see it, that picture happened. Everyone was calling for Leonheart's head the minute "Smilin' Squall" hit the presses, and as it turns out with good reason, but what we didn't stop to think was that this was actually the best possible situation for Square overall. Clearly this ridiculous look was a major turnoff to former Squall voters, but the trouble is, nearly all those "on the fence" voters ended up going with Sora! Yoshi finishing much closer to Squall doesn't do him a lick of good when all of the votes the #1 guy loses are going to the other option that he's ACTUALLY trying to compete against. Which meant Yoshi's only hope was to obliterate Fox, and... *looks at pic* nope, that wasn't going to be happening! The poor green guy was caught between a rock and a hard place in this one, and was never really going to have a chance given the circumstances. On the plus side, what an excellent validation for Fox fans this ended up being.

(BTW, I'm still taking Yoshi > Sora in next year's 1v1, so there.)

Okay, moving on to a match that kind of looked like a dud not too long about, but that now... who knows?

X-Stats from Round One
Cloud - 37.70% (based on '07 Edgeworth)
Midna - 19.16% (based on '07 Edgeworth)
Mewtwo - 33.61% (based on '07 Ness)
Pac-Man - 25.21% (based on '07 Ness)

Whoa, what a messed up set of stats. Clearly Edgeworth got owned by Link and Bidoof last season and so Cloud/Midna deserve to go much higher, which in turn puts Midna very easily above the fodder line. People would probably have argued that, given how mad they were at her last season, but after the way she held up on Cloud, there doesn't seem to be much room for debate. Ness in turn was undeniably awful this season, whether from a Mewtwo SFFing or whatever else, which makes sense because there's no way Pac is THAT far over the fodder line.

Now conventional wisdom tells us that Cloud destroys this whole pack while Mewtwo in turn destroys Midna Ness-style, turning the poll into a mere pillowfight of the jobbers for third place. But has conventional wisdom EVER been right this year? Cloud blows everyone away and scores around 50%, that much should be a lock. But beyond that I'm starting to have totally ridiculous nightmares about that 2 spot...

What if Mewtwo can't lay the SFF hammer to Midna? I mean, he looks like total garbage in the pic (seriously, will that look appeal to ANYONE, aside from Area 51 conspiracy enthusiasts?), Midna's sporting a pretty cool devilish grin, and why would Pokemon be able to hurt Zelda anyways, especially when they don't have SSB in common? Meanwhile Cloud's pulling another of those anime styles that is currently doing wonders for Sora, and the higher his percent climbs the better the independent/more hardcore backing for Pac should allow him to look. Plus he looks good in this picture, and is running out the classic Pac-Man title screen font that should make him more appealing to older voters.

How's this for a Halloween horror story: Cloud explodes overnight and posts a Link-like number in this poll, Midna's cool look and Zelda appeal turns this into a Fox/Yoshi style rSFF affair, Pac takes full advantage and eats the largest portion of the pie, slipping past Mew into the next round. ...where he runs into Steroid-Cloud utterly annihilating Squall and Sora while leaving his old school/iconic fanbase untouched (speaking of that old school base, remember that Pac will be showing up to the dance in his original sprite form for the first time ever!), pushing him through to the most undeserved Round Four showing since... Pac-Man, in 2002! Ahhhhhhhhhhhhh! (Oh wait, actually it was SCORPION who made R4 in '02. Anyways, same idea!)

*deep breaths* No no, that scenario is just too horrible to imagine. Got to stick with my bracket and the "sensible" Cloud > Mewtwo pick. Still though, I'm thinking both Midna and Pac come out of this one looking better than most are expecting. Let's throw these numbers into the pot, toss in some candy corn, stir for a few minutes and bring out

Cloud Strife - 49.15%
Mewtwo - 19.74%
Pac-Man - 16.09%
Midna - 15.03%

That looks... pretty spooky! Come on Pac, give us all a good scare tonight!

Ngamer Says: Cloud > Mewtwo

Crew Consensus: Cloud > Mewtwo woo

Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/30/2008 9:09:02 PM | message detail | #277 | filter

What we've got here is a relatively simple match. We've got a weak Zelda character, the most powerful Pokemon, a gaming relic, and a past winner.

Cloud - He's going to get first. Why should people even bother trying to say otherwise? It's going to be like only 65% of people picking Link for first in Round 2. It's actually pretty funny.

Midna - She's the weak Zelda character. TP boosted her votes once it was released, but she's not much of a threat. Mewtwo being an icon will SFF her badly, causing her to lose some votes.

Mewtwo - This guy's been doing great this year! He's been a powerhouse, and he's almost guaranteed for Round 4 now! The icon of Pokemon games is a lock for second.

Pac-Man - He's the gaming relic. He's the oldest guy in the book, next to Paddle, who people consider as a weak joke character. He managed to speed past Ness in Round 1, but Cloud's putting a stop to his streak.

An in general analysis: What's surprising is how Pac-Man actually made it to Round 2, considering how he was almost as weak as Wander was last year. He's been pretty surprising. He's been getting one of those RE-style boosts that's surprised everyone, but he's gotten similar pics in both rounds. With regards to pics, Midna and Cloud contend for the better, while Pac-Man and Mewtwo duke it out for the opposite. Mewtwo slightly edges out Pac-Man, with regards to how bad they are. A 3-D appearance with cleaner edges would have done great for the Psychic powerhouse, but no boons here. Cloud's just going to dominate. If Zack managed to get 20% in the match even with Zidane in it, Mewtwo's probably going to get something similar. They're pretty much the same level of power when compared to Link and Cloud, probably getting about 20%. It's sort of funny how that works. It's just too bad Mewtwo and Zack will never meet. What I'm looking for, though, is Pac-Man to edge out Midna. Mewtwo's badass factor is just too much for a sassy midget to handle (oh lawd). Holy **** Déja vu. ****ing crazy there. Anyways, even though Midna's a great character, this is a great match and she's doomed for last. This is going to be a great match though. A nice sigh of relief for those who have been getting upset about the recent upsets. It's a breat of fresh air.

Justin's Bracket Says: Cloud > Mewtwo
Justin Thinks: Cloud > Mewtwo

Justin's Percentages
Cloud Strife - 51%
Mewtwo - 20.5%
Pac-Man - 14.5%
Midna - 14%
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YOUR FACE IS...

Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/30/2008 9:10:20 PM | message detail | #278 | filter

Ngamer64 (#270)
Is it something like what happened when I hired you as Leaderboard Updater, JC?

No, email filter caused my whole analysis to be deleted, and I hadn't saved it.
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YOUR FACE IS...

DpObliVion | Posted 10/30/2008 9:12:48 PM | message detail | #279 | filter

DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis - UGH WHY THE **** DID I LOSE GFAQS9, I CAN'T ****ING STAND V10 edition:

Why am I even analyzing, I've now missed six matches in a row, AUGH.

I can't possibly mess this one up though, right? Cloud is obviously coming in first, you can't even pretend to think otherwise. The only thing to possibly worry about is Pac-Man losing to Mewtwo, except Mewtwo beat Pac-Man ~42%-25% in the first round, and Pac-Man should do even worse with Cloud in the match.

I guess the wildcard is Midna, who didn't do horribly with Cloud in the match. She shares a Nintendo fanbase with Mewtwo, taking the all-powerful Legend of Zelda vote. But as we saw last year, Midna is far down the Nintendo totem pole, while Mewtwo may be the strongest of the strong Pokemon vote.

Paranoia is the only reason to think anything other than Cloud > Mewtwo here, though. Missing six in a row makes me paranoid. But if this result is anything but Cloud > Mewtwo, I might as well just stop predicting and analyzing forever.

Dp's bracket says: Cloud > Mewtwo

Dp's prediction is: Cloud > Mewtwo

Confidence: 2%

Cloud - 46%
Mewtwo - 27%
Pac-Man - 14%
Midna - 13%

Underrating Cloud and overrating Mewtwo, I know....I suppose I expect too much from Mewtwo, either that or I should easily be getting the points!

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

DpObliVion | Posted 10/30/2008 9:14:11 PM | message detail | #280 | filter

And "points" would be Oracle, not Crew....

<_<

But WTF, Lopen went lower on Cloud than me, how is that possible....

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

LeonhartFour | Posted 10/30/2008 9:14:11 PM | message detail | #281 | filter

No one entertaining the possibility of Mewtwo being upset? Not even Lopen?

Sounds like it's Pac-Man time!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi

Ngamer64 | Posted 10/30/2008 9:27:31 PM | message detail | #282 | filter

I entertained it! I wined and dined it all night!

And yes, still feel Pac will be doing better than most are giving him credit for. Cloud is KIND of iconic, sure, but not the kind of iconic that someone like a Mario is, so he still ought to be the most independent option.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/30/2008 9:29:33 PM | message detail | #283 | filter

Yeah, I understand that Pac-Man is more of an old school guy who gets a lot of apathy votes, but I don't see Cloud "SFFing" him or whatever. I think he'll hold up just fine. I think he's a lot more reliable than people think. He's just had bad luck with bracket placement.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi

greatone10 | Posted 10/30/2008 9:30:27 PM | message detail | #284 | filter

Pac probably won't do as well as he did in Round 1. I feel he works best in four ways when there is a little variety in the poll options (that was the whole logic that I used to pick Pac over Ness to begin with). Having two non-iconic Nintendo options an a cult Wii-only character helped him immensely. Now he goes into a match where both Square and Nintendo are represented so I don't think he will do quite as well.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896

KamikazePotato | Posted 10/30/2008 9:33:08 PM | message detail | #285 | filter

NGamer, if the Halloween Factor pans out you are the cleverest bastard ever.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10

Ngamer64 | Posted 10/30/2008 9:35:51 PM | message detail | #286 | filter

*prepares "THF" wiki article in advance*

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greatone10 | Posted 10/30/2008 9:36:23 PM | message detail | #287 | filter

Master Moltar (#276)
remember that Pac will be showing up to the dance in his original sprite form for the first time ever

That's not completely true. The Round 3 picture format in 2002 had sprite backgrounds with the artwork front and center. So Pac has gotten a sprite before, but not to the extent where it would cause an overpeformance.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896

Ngamer64 | Posted 10/30/2008 9:42:38 PM | message detail | #288 | filter

Ehhh...

http://thengamer.com/xstats/pics/pacman02c.jpg

Sure the sprite is there, but his goofy 3D version is right in the way ruining the good old school vibe, and apparently trying to give us all a big group hug. He should be able to score a much stronger advantage here in R3, if he would be able to get there.

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greatone10 | Posted 10/30/2008 9:45:55 PM | message detail | #289 | filter

I did acknowledge the fact that it wouldn't really cause an overperformance, but I did have to be a smartass and point out that it wouldn't be his first sprite picture.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896

LeonhartFour | Posted 10/30/2008 9:47:35 PM | message detail | #290 | filter

I'm semi-rooting for Pac-Man to somehow upset Mewtwo 'cause it'd give Squall a much better chance of advancing next round.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi

greatone10 | Posted 10/30/2008 10:19:02 PM | message detail | #291 | filter

By the way, the Halloween factor could still exist for tomorrow night. Maybe the deflated night vote from all the Halloween parties helps day vote kings Kirby and Chief advance over Big Boss!
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896

Ngamer64 | Posted 10/30/2008 10:54:55 PM | message detail | #292 | filter

Haha, Cloud already pushing for 50%, Midna already making deep cuts on Mewtwo, and Pac in good position to start cutting them both once this NPH finishes up!

*starts revving the Halloween Factor engines*

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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/30/2008 10:57:16 PM | message detail | #293 | filter

Looks like I picked the wrong character for an upset!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi

GTM | Posted 10/31/2008 12:13:32 AM | message detail | #294 | filter

nice analysis mewtwo got 41% on yoshi
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Togepi! Togepi!
TogeTogeTogepi!

Tatl | Posted 10/31/2008 7:28:34 AM | message detail | #295 | filter

Cloud - 53%
Mewtwo - 17%
Midna - 17.2%
The Pac - 12.8%

Calling it now... If the ASV has more LoZ fans than PokeFans, then Midna will make it (and my risiest pick in the whole contest (Cloud > Midna > Mewtwo > The Pac [originally supposed to be Ness]) will have been a success which will gain me some major ground in this thing...

GO MIDNA!
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Score as of 10/30: 152
Bracket: Squall > Yoshi - Vote: Yoshi

Sora......................28.31% 36108
Fox McCloud.......18.77% 23944
Squall Leonhart....30.47% 38857
Yoshi.....................22.44% 28625
TOTAL VOTES...............127534

What Happened - Sora puts up an impressive performance. Most thought he would crumble to Squall, but it turns out he did much better than before! Meanwhile, Fox cripples Yoshi pretty badly, keeping him a safe distance away from second place.

Why it Happened - A Mario character unimpressed...again. Fox is pretty legit as a midcarder at this point though. Squall could have been hurt massively by his...OOC picture, which allowed Sora to capitalize.

What Will Happen - With Sora holding up this well here, he has a good shot at beating Squall next round.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay Guest!

Yoblazer - 29
Ngamer - 27
HM - 26
Tran - 25
Moltar - 25
Guest - 24
Lopen - 22

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Ngamer gets the point for Squall and Fox, Luster gets the point for Yoshi and Sora

Yoblazer - 34
Ngamer - 31
Tran - 30
Moltar - 30
HM - 29
Guest (War (2), KP (2), Dp, Justin, greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai, Klennex, Luis (2), Scott, Soul (2), Leon (3), Ed, Luster (3)) - 24
Lopen - 17
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Moltar Status: augh
Cloud/Midna/Mewtwo/Pac-Man - Bracket: Cloud > Mewtwo - Vote: Mewtwo (153/216)

Ngamer64 | Posted 10/31/2008 6:34:20 PM | message detail | #297 | filter

Whoa, a double points day? Awesome!

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Division 7: Round 2 - Match 45 – Big Boss vs. Kirby vs. Master Chief vs. Raiden

Moltar’s Analysis

Big Boss
Round 1 - 48.08% vs. Kirby, Jinjo and Lucas

hey there snake

Kirby
Round 1 - 36.78% vs. Chief, Jinjo and Lucas

nintendo de-boost darn you brawl

Master Chief
Round 1 - 36.82% vs. Raiden, Kain and Layton

This is NOT the Master Chief that made me wet last year!

Raiden
Round 1 - 28.35% vs. Squall, CATS and Nathan

MGS4 boost? I hope so!

This was supposed to be “obv” Chief > Kirby thanks for the points.

However, nothing went according to keikaku in Round 1. Big Boss got a Naked pic and the voters were all “sup solid”, leading to a Snake-like performance from BB. This, in the process, made Kirby look like crap. 24 hours later, you have Chief, after putting up 40% with midcarders in his group last year, flop against Raiden and a FF4 character. Oh boy…

One thing that hasn’t changed is there being 2 MGS characters in the poll. Do Big Boss and Raiden wreck each other? Or will we see extreme SFF one way or the other? We’ll see, but I’m betting on the former…

Anyway, I still like Kirby and Chief for first. While both looked bad in Round 1, Kirby is the only Nintendo, so he should be able to stay around 30% on strength alone, and I’m willing to give Chief one more chance to show that he isn’t crap now. I’m half-expecting Kirby > MC, but I’ll go with my original pick.

--------Everything above this was written before the match pic was released--------

--------Everything below this was written after the match pic was released--------

Whew crisis averted, no Naked Snake for BB, but we do get an equally-interesting certain picture. This is what I wanted to see him get this round. I want to see the true strength of you, Big Boss!

With this pic, I’m thinking he and Raiden are going to split, with it favoring BB by a bit.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Chief > Kirby

Moltar’s Prediction is: Chief: 31% - Kirby: 29% - Big Boss: 23% - Raiden: 17%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Big match today. The order of this one is crazy - anyone save Raiden could advance, in any order. I think most people will go with some form of Master Chief and Kirby because of Metal Gear SFF, or "LFF," and Big Boss not getting a Naked Snake pic (it's close enough, and from MGS4, so this shouldn't be any real dealbreaker).

But after how badly Big Boss handled Kirby last round, and with Chief's less than stellar showing, I'm liking Big Boss to advance in first. I can understand where people are coming from with Metal Gear SFF, but I think Boss will sooner SFF Raiden into the low-teens before they split the votes - a less severe version of Snake/Raiden. And while last round can mostly be chalked up to his pic, along with Kirby having to deal with two other Nintendo characters, the pic he got here isn't that much worse off. This isn't MGS1 artwork - it's straight from MGS4. Given how well Snake did with his Old Snake pic, Boss shouldn't suffer too much here.

So that leaves Kirby and Master Chief. Neither one had all that good of a round 1 showing, but I'd say Chief was worse off than Kirby, who despite having reason to be held back and coming in second still outdid Chief's percentage. With Kirby being the standout here, he should benefit. Nintendo hasn't performed too well this year, but Kirby's the sole Nintendo representative against a weakened, non-Halo 3 hype Chief and SFF'd Raiden. He's got all he needs to advance here, maybe even outright winning this pack.

But Chief shouldn't be counted out. We don't know how much of last round was him and how much was Raiden boosting and Kain maybe being worth something. We'll get some idea of that here, and there's always that "core" fanbase argument he has. But it's hard to really make the "format god" argument nowadays. The only way he advances here, I think, is if Raiden brings down Big Boss by more than I'm expecting.

Boss has a great chance to go deep into the contest if he can win here. With the new 'freeform' rule for round 3, he doesn't have to worry about getting a sprite. If he takes first, he'll probably win the division. It all depends on how much Raiden matters.

Prediction: Big Boss - 31% ; Kirby - 28% ; Master Chief - 27% ; Raiden - 16%
Vote: Big Boss

Yoblazer’s Analysis

Well, what was once an open-and-shut case has developed a bit of intrigue or something! Before these four stalwarts took the stage in Round 1, we figured that a Master Chief > Kirby result was pretty safe. However, a few wrenches have since been thrown into that machine. These wrenches are mainly Big Boss's insane performance and Master Chief's surprising opening dud. It's Big Boss, Kirby, da Chief, and Raiden in a match set to be wrought with excitement and tempered with conflict! And then dipped into a wet trough of speculation for cooling! Really!

There are two Metal Gear Solid (!) guys here. I'll begin this analysis by discussing them. Individually, neither Big Boss nor Raiden were disappointing last round. In fact, Raiden put up an impressive 43.5% on an admittedly poopy looking Chief, while Big Boss was the star of the round after obliterating a guy (Kirby) he was supposed to lose to. Big Boss's incredible job has made many of us think that he stands a chance here. Now, only a few guys here love Nakey Snakey more than I do, but I'm here to sadly tell everyone that it won't happen.

A fanbase split is a big deal, and it's a big deal for ANY fanbase. The fact that Big Boss has drawn one against a guy he probably won't be able to obliterate spells his unfortunate end. And this won't be some weaksauce split like, say... Lucario and Isaac. Boss and Raiden share the exact same series and fanbase. There aren't many (good) reasons to assume their fanbase won't be as intertwined as the likes of Luigi and Bowser. Considering those two chumps barely put up a combined 50% against Liquid Snake and Phoenix Wright, I don't envision success for the MGS duo, especially against two competitors as strong and varied as Kirby and Chief. All in all, I'd be very surprised if Big Boss and Kirby managed a combined percentage higher than the low 40s. I expect Boss to win the split, of course, but he has the added disadvantage of drawing his old man pic. It looks better than his melty art, but he still won't be getting those Snake proxy votes he used to kick ass last time, so Raiden might be able to use that (in junction with his own cool picture) to stave off humiliation.

And now, the big two. I still expect Master Chief and Kirby to advance, and I wouldn't be surprised if the battle for first got heated. Admittedly, both looked awful last round. Kirby was killed by a guy he was supposed to beat, and Chief underperformed according to our own expectations by upwards of 10%. However, in Kirby's defense, at least he had an excuse. Big Boss got a picture that basically told voters "I'm Snake and you will ****ing vote for me now." Kirby just couldn't compete with that. On the other hand, Chief had no earthly reason to put out such a crap performance. He had the best picture of the bunch and everything. I think everyone now believes that this ain't no 2007 Chief. However, 2007 Chief would have murdered this fourpack, so I still think it's fair to call 2008 Chief the favorite.

I refuse to casually write Kirby off, though. He's the Nintendo/cartoony option, and he stands out a ton amongst three VERY mature, serious looking competitors. I believe this is the first time in 2008 we've seen a tried-and-tested Nintendo character holding the N banner alone and in such favorably circumstances. Kirby is no Lucario, and he's facing a split in the GOOD direction. As such, I expect him to do very well. A part of me wants to give him the outright win, but I just can't pull the trigger on it.

Happy Halloween, guys! Have a safe one!

Big Boss - 24%
Kirby - 28%
Master Chief - 31%
Raiden - 17%

Lopen’s Analysis

Big Boss is doomed. Without the Snake proxy factor to get him into the match, Raiden is going to beat him into the ground. In fact, as obvious by last round, Raiden is now an elite entrant. After all, Master Chief did better than Sonic last year...! The question here is how much Raiden can beat Big Boss into the ground by. Enough to beat Kirby or not?

... okay, I'm exaggerating. Raiden is not obviously elite... but honestly, he could be a pretty strong competitor this year. MGS4 no doubt must've done wonders for him... and the picture is good. Big Boss does have the power of being the solo man on the white team. Yay Bacon for being an idiot with contrast again. I still think SFF favors Raiden here pretty resoundingly over old Boss. Main character of MGS2 and really awesome fan favorite in MGS4, what more do you need

Anyway, to me, the match here really is Raiden vs Kirby. No way does Big Boss beat Kirby again losing Naked Snake and with Raiden SFFing him into the ground. Raiden... Raiden's a bit of a wildcard. Even assuming Chief is at as low as 2k6 levels, that performance from Raiden was none too shabby. Kain sorta makes him look bad, but ~Rydia~ certainly supports that Kain could be a decent competitor too.

Beatin Marcus Fenix isn't anything to be just brushed off... as wonderful as she looked a pic can only do so much. However, even as an old man, Big Boss's weakening potential is pretty high... probably enough for that evil bastard Kirby to sneak through. Kirby never was much one for fair fights, and here he'll smack the weakened Raiden with a hammer.

Lopen's vote: *head explodes*
Lopen's bracket: Master Chief > Kirby

Lopen's Prediction
Master Chief – 35.07%
Kirby – 25.24%
Raiden – 24.61%
Weak ass old man – 15.08%

Ngamer’s Analysis

Shoot, so close to seeing a classic. This was sure to end up as one of the closest wire to wire matches in history, and there was even a decent possibility of Midna riding a Zelda second night vote to victory, but then Mewtwo messed everything up by finally doing something in the match with the ASV. Well I was right about Cloud tearing it up and right about Mewtwo underwhelming... too bad Pac collapsed to wreck that part of my pred (although I guess to be fair, he at least looks great in relation to Mewtwo). Mew performing to Oracle expectations here would have been enough for me to rubber stamp his spot in R4, but as is we're left with NO IDEA who will be coming out of that one alongside Cloud... I've heard arguments for Sora, Squall, and Mewtwo, and any one of the three is a legit, reasonable guess at this point. Should be awesome!

Another matchup I've got high hopes for takes place tonight. Let's get that hype train a'rollin.

X-Stats from Round One:
Master Chief - 31.01% (based on Layton = Tom Nook)
Raiden - 26.98% (based on Layton = Tom Nook)
Big Boss - 33.77% (based on Jinjo = '07 Banjo)
Kirby - 29.27% (based on Jinjo = '07 Banjo)

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