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Character Battle VII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

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...and yet, somehow, I get the impression that that's going to be enough. Falcon's awesome, but I see him pulling a repeat of that OTHER SSB dude with the amazing R1 performance and the same name except for an "N" who nevertheless collapsed and burned when the pressure mounted in R2. So yeah, Falcon for last place, and probably won't match Ike's percentage against Pika. As for Alucard, sorry, just not buying it. He got the ideal setup last round, standing out big time against three pieces of Nintendo fodder or near-fodder, yet he still only managed a 5% win against the guy who should be the weakest today. I picture him contending for advancement or perhaps even the outright win throughout the dead hours of the night, but then shriveling up and dying once the sun rises for a third place finish.

That leaves us with Arthas vs Pikachu. Arthas has a couple things working against him, namely that Falcon probably doesn't hurt Pika quite as badly as Ike did and that WoW players aren't going to be spending as much time tomorrow on fansites and message boards (they were back in R1 because a Wrath of the Lich King pre-patch knocked servers worldwide offline for most of that day). But he also has one big thing working for him: the perfect match pic! WoW was already going to be voting in support of him, but this should help him appeal to any Warcraft III players who wouldn't have recognized him in his Lich King form. Also I think his rally power might be a little more effective here, as WoW players might care about the match more now that we're into R2 and the competition is better. All in all I see him improving slightly against Pika; probably won't be enough to net him the win, but ought to be able to outlast Alucard.

And Pikachu, well, wins again! Though as I've stated above it ought to be a bit closer than last time. Taking all that into consideration and turning it into numbers, let's see what some pot-stirring results in.

Pikachu - 28.84%
Arthas Menethil - 25.48%
Alucard - 25.22%
Captain Falcon - 20.47%

That looks... pretty solid, actually!

Ngamer Says: Pikachu > Arthas

Guest’s Analysis - War13104

Welcome to my second go, and this time we have not one War (Wario), but two! Who? I'll show you, you'll see!

Arthas vs. Alucard vs. Pikachu vs. Captain Falcon

First off, Pikachu is advancing here. Lucario may have been no Falcon, but Marth is arguably no Ike, let alone Pikachu. Ike, a huge fan favorite in Brawl, also has an appeal outside of Smash that Falcon doesn't, the RPG fanbase. Now, I know RPG LFF may seem weird, but Pikachu had to have somewhere to gain 10% from when you replace Tidus and Vivi with Dante and Amaterasu. Pikachu won't be seeing 33% or anything like that in this match, but if Ike couldn't pull Pikachu down hard, I can't see Falcon doing so unless Diddy is a lot stronger than imaginable.

Speaking of which, Falcon may have proven that he deserves a spot next contest by not only advancing, but looking damn good in doing so. Replace Pikachu with non-Nintendo, and Falcon could probably advance here too. As it is, Falcon is getting last, unless Arthas completely chokes.

Arthas is interesting, thanks to Albion. Arthas has yet to have a *bad* match, with or without rallying. I could easily see Arthas advancing here, especially since Alucard did little to prove he hasn't fallen hard. However, I look at what Hogger's rallying did, and if Arthas advances again, it'll be because he has actual strength rather than the result of rallying. Despite all this, however, I can't put the guy over Alucard. Alucard's a guy who, like Crono and company, has suffered as a result of increased votals.

Speaking of Alucard, he's got everything to prove. He could finish first, second, or third. The guy'll have a strong backing, and even his bad match of last year, Yuna/Chief/Liquid/Card, saw him pull near 30000 votes. This convinces me that Alucard won't fall as hard as the more mainstream Arthas. I can easily see Alucard pulling 35000 votes. Arthas could barely pull that against significantly stronger opponents.

War's Bracket: Pikachu > Alucard > Arthas > Diddy

War's Prediction:

Pikachu: 31.65%
Aluward: 29.15%
wARTHAnemesiS: 24.67%
Falcon: 14.53%

Crew Consensus: Pika > Alucard has 2 (Molt, Guest), Alucard > Pika has 2 (HM, Yo), the rest have Pika > Arthas

let's go

TestIcicles | Posted 10/26/2008 9:09:09 PM | message detail | #203 | filter

If Alucard finishes first I'll eat my hat.

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mmm test icicles

DpObliVion | Posted 10/26/2008 9:09:19 PM | message detail | #204 | filter

Hmm, interesting mixed consensus....

DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

L-Block in 2nd is but a small moral victory....

Anyway, onto the next match. You may expect Pikachu to be stronger than Alucard if he wasn't being held back at all, but it shouldn't be too big of a gap, and the presence of Captain Falcon should be enough of a disadvantage to allow Alucard to take first.

As for that disadvantage, Pikachu beat Arthas by ~5.5% last round with SFF from Ike, and Falcon should hurt quite a bit more than Ike. However, will it be enough? Arthas was impressive, but circumstances worked well in his favor to allow for some pretty successful rallying. A successful rally may happen again, I suppose, but I have to expect Arthas' percentage will be going down some from his first round performance, and Pikachu will still be able to top it.

Dp's bracket says: Alucard > Pikachu

Dp's prediction is: Alucard > Pikachu

Confidence: 70%

Alucard - 29.50%
Pikachu - 27.50%
Arthas - 23.50%
Captain Falcon - 19.50%

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

ZFS | Posted 10/26/2008 9:11:07 PM | message detail | #205 | filter

let's go falcon

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GREETINGS CHEESE POPSICLE THE NUMBER YOU HAVE DIALED IS CURRENTLY OUT OF PORK CHOPS

DpObliVion | Posted 10/26/2008 9:16:02 PM | message detail | #206 | filter

Wanted to have Falcon higher....

Alucard - 29%
Pikachu - 27%
Arthas - 23%
Captain Falcon - 21%

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

DpObliVion | Posted 10/26/2008 10:30:10 PM | message detail | #207 | filter

Come on, Alucard!

Although my alt bracket which is 4 points higher than my main has Pikachu > Alucard, so either they end up tied or get some nice separation and perhaps even a push to the leaderboard for my alt....

Also, preemptive high-five to HM for tomorrow's match (assuming you stick with your guru bracket).

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

BDawg | Posted 10/26/2008 11:09:55 PM | message detail | #208 | filter

RallyFEAR defeated?
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Should I start running now?

Lopen | Posted 10/27/2008 12:23:57 AM | message detail | #209 | filter

Wow. Well done, Alucard. Think Pikachu should have this though.

Guess I should've stuck with my bracket. Again.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe

LeonhartFour | Posted 10/27/2008 7:11:13 AM | message detail | #210 | filter

...People really thought Arthas was going to beat Alucard?
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi

MASNAR50 | Posted 10/27/2008 8:04:38 AM | message detail | #211 | filter

Personally I think the Castlevania version of Dracula should be in a contest, but it sadly won't happen probabaly because he originated as a literary character that's a thousand times older than video games. o.o; I guess ALucard's the next best thing then *shurgs*

Also I aim this at anyone choosing Pikachu over Captain Falcon
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFtw7qW7Vcw

transience | Posted 10/27/2008 8:08:09 AM | message detail | #212 | filter

wonder if Ecclesia is helping Alucard out here.
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xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la

Crono............................32.09% 45757
Amaterasu....................16.32% 23270
L-Block..........................27.74% 39556
Ryu (Street Fighter).....23.85% 34004
TOTAL VOTES.........................142587

What Happened - The Block shows signs of weakness! Crono pulls off an impressive win over L, while the block takes second with his lowest percentage yet. Ryu comes in a distant third, and Ammy pulls off an impressive percent for fourth.

Why it Happened - Ammy looks to have delevloped a really solid fanbase. Last year, she collapsed against tough competition, but this year, she held up like a champ with stronger competition than last year! Who knows why L wasn't able to take first here. Either it still needs to build momentum, or it's already reached its limit.

What Will Happen - With the sprite round coming up, Crono may again best the Block.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay HM and Guest!

Yoblazer - 27
Ngamer - 25
HM - 25
Tran - 23
Moltar - 22
Guest - 22
Lopen - 21

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Ngamer gets the point for L, Luster gets the point for Crono, Yo gets the point for Ryu, and Ngamer gets the point for Ammy

Yoblazer - 30
Ngamer - 29
Tran - 28
HM - 27
Moltar - 25
Guest (War, KP (2), Dp, Justin, greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai, Klennex, Luis (2), Scott, Soul (2), Leon, Ed, Luster) - 19
Lopen - 17
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Moltar Status: augh
Alucard/Falcon/Pikachu/Arthas - Bracket: Pikachu > Alucard - Vote: Falcon (129/184)

hailEC | Posted 10/27/2008 6:00:07 PM | message detail | #214 | filter

i think im gonna back out of the squall write-up, im sure Leon will jump on the opportunity.

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all hail ec your lord and savior

DpObliVion | Posted 10/27/2008 7:05:59 PM | message detail | #215 | filter

From: DpObliVion | Posted: 10/27/2008 12:30:10 AM |

Also, preemptive high-five to HM for tomorrow's match (assuming you stick with your guru bracket).

Oops, meant the day after tomorrow. Go Vivi.

So, uh, yeah, once again I put blind faith in Alucard. Whoops.

My alt bracket is almost definitely going to be ahead of my main bracket at the end of the contest. Ugh....

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

Division 5: Round 2 - Match 41 – Weighted Companion Cube vs. Tidus vs. Mega Man vs. Nero

Moltar’s Analysis

Cube
Round 1 - 32.21% vs. Tidus, DK and Tails

Following in the path of a Block

Tidus
Round 1 - 31.72% vs. Cube, DK and Tails

Well, Tidus loses again, but at least he looked impressive while doing so.

Mega Man
Round 1 - 51.19% vs. Nero, Banjo and Olimar

mega man more like mega weak only 51% on this garbage?

Nero
Round 1 - 24.03% vs. Mega Man, Banjo and Olimar

24.03% of the voters thought he was Dante confirmed

Well, here we have a Cube, a girl, a robot and a copy. Well, let’s do th-

DK: Yo, yo yo Molty-baby, wuz happenin’, cuz!

Donkey Kong? What are you doing here. I’m trying to do an analysis!

DK: Yeah, yeah, fo sho. I came to help a brotha out wit dis analy…ana….analyzin’ **** or whatever.

Well, I guess that would be alright, but NO promoting any albums with parodies of songs that came out a year ago.

DK: What? Molty, my man! I would neva think about doin’ dat **** here. This is gonna be straight up analy…an…teliln’ my boyz wut’s up.

Whatever, it’s all yours.

DK: Aight fellas and ladies, here’s how ya boy Donkey breaks dis **** down. A minute ago, I was blasted down by a ****in’ CUBE and some *** ass guygirl thang. See, ya see, that’s because this khaantest is stupid ass ****. A ***** got *****es ta **** and

Hey Donkey Kong, how about you tell them ABOUT THE MATCH

DK: Aw yee, uh, well, Cube an Teedus was close so uh…oh yeah Mega Man, that ***** takes first and uh…Cube in second cuz ya’ll dumb as ****.

Okay, that’s good. Thanks for coming here DK.

DK: Naw, naw, I ain’t done yet. I gots one more thang ta’ say…………….Donkey Kong tell ‘em

Oh no, DK, don’t do it!

Random guy in the background: Yoouuuuuuuuu!

No, DK, stop right now! This is done!

DK: Awwwwwww yeah!

Donkey Kong Off In This Hooooooooooe
Watch me Bongo
Watch me Roll (dodge)
Watch me Crank Dat Donkey Kong
Then Barrel Blast Dat Hoooooooooooooe
Now, Fling My Pooooooooooooo...
(Crank Dat Donkey Kong)
Now, Fling My Pooooooooooooo...
(Crank Dat Donkey Kong)
Now, Fling My Pooooooooooooo...
(Crank Dat Donkey Kong)
Now, Fling My Pooooooooooooo...
(Crank Dat Donkey Kong)

No, no, this is over! I’m tired of you always ruining my write-ups with these inappropriate and vulgar parody songs! Security, escort our Guest out of here now!

DK: Nooooooo, Molty I thought we was tight!

Out, out, out!

DK:Yo doodz, don’t forget to pick up my new album, “Deez Coconuts” droppin’ this week! And I challenge all ya’ll *****es on Xbox Live. Gamahtag is “donkeykongtellem” an

GET OUT!!

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Mega > Cube

Moltar’s Prediction is: Mega Man: 36% - Cube: 26% - Tidus: 23% - Nero: 15%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Today's match should be easy, thanks to the Companion Cube. Most people (myself included) expected this to be a battle for second between DK and Tidus, but with DK's bomb and the Cube taking an impressive first, there's not a whole lot that needs to be discussed here.

If the Cube can beat Tidus with nothing holding him back, there's no reason to think it couldn't do it again. Mega Man's not going to be getting enough percentage that's going to make this a battle of 'hardcore voters' - and even then Tidus probably can't compete with something like WCC. I think he'll make this close, but not to the point giving the Cube a scare, unfortunately.

I'm not too sure about where Mega Man needs to land here in order to look great for next round. 42%+ seems like it'd be an impressive performance with Tidus and WCC subbing in for Banjo and Olimar - dropping about 10% from last round. I'd be surprised if he does get over 40%, though. Having confidence in Mega Man to do well isn't something I'm willing to do. And while he looked solid last round, it's hard to tell how that was. Nero probably isn't worth too much - and I think we'll see that today.

Prediction: Mega Man - 38% ; WCC - 26% Tidus - 24% ; Nero - 12%
Vote: Tidus

Yoblazer’s Analysis

It's WCC, Tidus, Mega Man, and Nero squaring off in a match that, after what we just witnessed not two days ago, seems pretty safe. I usually too damn wordy with these, but there's really no excuse this time, so let me just compare this match with what L-Block had two nights ago and call it a night.

WCC and L-Block are in eerily similar situations. In Round 1, L-Block eked out a win over Ryu. In Round 2, blocky went up against a lower-tier Noble 9er in Crono. In Round 1, WCC eked out a win over Tidus. In Round 2, WCC is going up against a lower-tier Noble 9er in Mega Man. L-Block finished pretty far behind Crono but defeated Ryu much more easily than it did in the first round. I'm expecting the exact same scenario tonight. Weighted Companion Cube will likely finish far behind Mega Man but defeat Tidus much more easily than he did last time.

In fact, I'm only predicting a few small differences. I think Mega Man will do a bit better than Crono in terms of percentage, as his opponents are weaker. Inversely, I think Nero will do worse than the other match's fourth entrant, Amaterasu. Nero did well enough last time in putting up 32% on Mega Man, but he was really aided by facing three cartoony, Nintendo-ish guys. This time, he's up against three characters with distinct fanbases, so I think he'll be left to suffer. Other than that, I have a hard time envisioning any surprises, which of course means to expect Mega Man over Nero in a nail biter.

Weighted Companion Cube - 27%
Tidus - 23%
Mega Man - 36%
Nero - 14%

Lopen’s Analysis

Intuition says here that the Cube will have "static joke character trends" and will easily take second here. I don't think it's that straightforward, though. I'm thinking maybe Cube got a combination of apathy votes and Portal fan votes. It's possible Mega Man (and even Nero maybe) can help wring those out much better than Tails and Donkey Kong did.

It's hard to take Tidus here, though... I mean, he lost last round. And as devoted as Tidus's fanbase might be, it's kinda hard to take it to outdo a joke character. But I still think to completely count Tidus out in this one is wrong. Tidus lost by hardly anything at all, and I have this feeling that maybe Tidus just has a low vote ceiling in this format, (all formats, really... highest win he ever got was in the low 70s against the King of All Cosmos, which is probably among the weakest fodder out there.) and I also have the feeling that Cube isn't completely joke... and his non-joke component is going to be less loyal than Tidus's.

Maybe I'm being biased, I dunno. But I can't help but feel Tidus is being overlooked, and might have the advantage. Still a toss-up because the match was really close, but I might as well pull the trigger on this one.

Lopen's prediction:
Mega Man – 35.77%
Tidus – 24.55%
Cube – 23.45%
Nero – 16.23%

Transience’s Analysis

greetings from Scotland, where I haven't slept more than like 30 minutes in three days! I don't have any time to do this, so I'll be reallllly brief:

this match is Mega Man and Cube. the chances of Cube overcoming Mega Man is very low given that L couldn't top Crono despite Crono having better competition. conversely, the chances of Tidus doing better than Cube is absolutely astronomically low - Mega Man will hurt Tidus a lot more than he hurts Cube (though I could see Cube folding a little -- not quite Mudkip-level, but something. either way, Tidus doesn't win.) Cube's not fighting for this round, but the next one where he faces Mega Man and Snake.

transience's prediction:

Mega Man - 37.23%
Nero - 14.20%
Tidus - 22.33%
Weighted Companion Cube - 26.24%

Ngamer’s Analysis

Heck of a cool match today. I'm still having a hard time wrapping my head around how Alucard only falls from 35% to 30% when you swap out Diddy Kong and Kratos A in favor of Pikachu and Arthas, especially since he ought to have stood out more against the Nintendo competition last round and overperformed THERE, not here. But I guess this goes to show why Alucard/SotN are so cult or niche or whatever you want to call it- they're not going to blow anyone out, but that 20something% fanbase is going to always be there, just like they were for him last year in R2. As for Arthas, I guess last round all the WC3 players were voting for him based on his name while all the WoW players were voting in support of the WotLK box they'll be buying soon. So switching to this old picture continues to get WC3ers involved, but WoW no longer cares and that caused his drop.

In any case, at least we're going to get to see Pikachu tear into the Block's face with full on, un-LFFed Pokemon/Nintendo Power! Sure the odds are still against him, but that didn't stop him from getting an R/B/Y sprite and destroying our expectations in R3 last year. Come on Pika, let's see another amazing run to R4 from you!

Speaking of joke characters...

X-Stats from Round One:
WCC - 28.98% (based on Tails '07)
Tidus - 28.76% (based on Tails '07)
Mega Man - 27.01% (based on Banjo '07)
Nero - 17.26% (based on Banjo '07)

Eh, both sets of numbers look pretty bad. Nero has to at least be at the fodder line based on R1, as he was taking advantage of being the only non-Nintendo option there. And there's no way I'm buying Tidus that high no matter what kind of circumstances he had working in his favor.

Alright, let's start with Mega Man. Why in the heck was everyone dancing on his grave (or, that of the whole MM series) a couple weeks back? Sure he was against weak competition, but scoring over 51% in ANY matchup is nothing to sneer at with the way our elite characters were performing that entire round. And MMX had done pretty well for himself also. The only disappointment in my mind was Zero, and even that one I'm not sold on completely... let's see what happens when Snake slithers into the mix tomorrow, because I could still see Zero surviving and advancing there. (heck, even Vivi might!). So yeah, should be a no-doubter of a first place for MM, and I'd have been saying that even before MMX wowed us.

Now then, here's my take on why the Cube is going to disappoint tonight. Last time around he was against three options that, while having huge recognizability, voters were sure to be pretty "meh" on. Heck, even within their own series fanbases people are pretty slow to warm to Tidus, DK, and Tails- you might even call them the black sheep of the family in all three cases. Combined with anti-favoriteFAQs and WCC being a cool new option, I think a ton of voters jumpped ship to the joke which resulted in that crazy final score we saw from R1. Since that match jokes have continued to weaken (a trend L-Block did nothing to stop, I might add) and this time Cube has to deal with competition that voters are surely more likely to respond to: MM (with an awesome NES-era logo, great!), Nero (with another full-on "Dante proxy advantage" kind of headshot), and Tidus (who at least has a stronger following than DK/Tails, and who ought to be at his best with this anime look that seems to do well with voters).

That's why I'm confident in taking this upset. MM for the win, and a close second place will be going to Tid-

Nay, can't pull the trigger! I DO think he puts up a better fight than most are calling for, however, and that Nero will at least look respectable while exiting. Bah, if only someone else with REAL fan backing were in contention here, like swapping Auron in for Tidus... but I shouldn't complain, Auron's current placement might delivering a classic for us in just a few days!

So MM >> Cube > Tidus >> Nero, and when those thoughts convert to numbers we get something like

Mega Man - 35.11%
Weighted Companion Cube - 25.21%
Tidus - 23.22%
Nero - 16.46%

...bah. Try as I might, I couldn't justify WCC falling under 25. Oh well... go ahead and surprise us, Tidus, I dare you!

Ngamer Says: Mega Man > WCC

Crew Consensus: Regulars say Mega > Cube

first legit analysis with percentages is guest gogogogo
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Moltar Status: augh
Alucard/Falcon/Pikachu/Arthas - Bracket: Pikachu > Alucard - Vote: Falcon (129/184)

KamikazePotato | Posted 10/27/2008 9:03:25 PM | message detail | #221 | filter

KP's 4th Biased Analysis

Joke characters aren't that static, especially no the Cube, MM SFFs Cube somehow, GlaDOS was just proven to be worth little, Teedus gonna rock this house with his devoted (cough) fanbase. Nero is gonna go okay.

MM: 39%
Tidus: 25%
WCC: 22%
Nero: 14%

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10

KamikazePotato | Posted 10/27/2008 9:04:02 PM | message detail | #222 | filter

*do okay

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10

chaosarcher07 | Posted 10/27/2008 9:08:15 PM | message detail | #223 | filter

I'd be willing to take the Squall/Sora/Yoshi/Fox match if EC/anyone else doesn't want to do it.

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http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=29
CBVII Current Score: 54/64

DpObliVion | Posted 10/27/2008 9:39:02 PM | message detail | #224 | filter

DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

Well, WCC beat out Tidus in the first round, and I suppose there's no reason to think the situation is any more favorable this round for Tidus. The only hope could be that with stronger opponents, there should be less voters settling for a joke vote. Mega Man should be quite stronger than DK and Tails combined, and Nero brings in another separate fanbase.

Of course, that may mean just as much, if not more trouble for Tidus than WCC. But I'm severely biased against joke characters, so....yeah....somehow, someway, Tidus gets back over WCC.

[or not]

Also, Nero fails today, not enough Dante-clone-recognizability.

Dp's bracket says: Mega Man > Tidus

Dp's biased prediction is: Mega Man > Tidus

Dp's unbiased prediction is: Mega Man > WCC

Mega Man - 36%
WCC - 25%
Tidus - 24%
Nero - 15%

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

Yoblazer's REAL prediction because I got distracted and forgot to change it
Weighted Companion Cube - 28%
Tidus - 23%
Mega Man - 35%
Nero - 14%
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Moltar Status: augh
Cube/Tidus/Mega Man/Nero - Bracket: Mega > Tidus - Vote: Mega (137/192)

Ngamer64 | Posted 10/27/2008 10:27:34 PM | message detail | #226 | filter

Dang it Moltar, give Lopen the credit for his bold Tidus pick!

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Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/
Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com

never!
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Moltar Status: augh
Cube/Tidus/Mega Man/Nero - Bracket: Mega > Tidus - Vote: Mega (137/192)

-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/27/2008 10:47:10 PM | message detail | #228 | filter

Excellent. I said I would redeem more points for the Guest and I definitely lived up to that name, being able to earn a point in both the Crew Prediction Challenge and the Crew Accuracy Challenge.
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Participate in my Presidential Election Prediction Challenge:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=46163188

Alucard.................29.26% 39153
Captain Falcon...19.23% 25734
Pikachu..................30.3% 40553
Arthas Menethil...21.21% 28382
TOTAL VOTES................133822

What Happened - Pikachu vs. Alucard happened. A fun match to watch all day, as Pika won the early vote, Alucard came back with the night vote, Pika caught up with the morning vote, but failed to take the lead. This leads to Alucard building up during the day, only to be smashed by Pika's ASV. Arthas and Falcon dueled for third.

Why it Happened - This is a really weird result. Alucard looked bad in Round 1, but redeemed himself here. Pikachu also may have benefited from SFFing Falcon, where as he split with Ike last round allowing Arthas to advance. But if Pika is supposed to look better here, then why does he look...worse?

What Will Happen - Crono/L/Pika/Alucard - save_us.RAT?

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay Moltar and Guest!

Yoblazer - 27
Ngamer - 25
HM - 25
Tran - 23
Moltar - 23
Guest - 23
Lopen - 21

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Moltar gets the point for Pikachu, War gets the point for Alucard, Molt, HM and Yo get points for Arthas, and Tran gets the point for Falcon

Yoblazer - 31
Ngamer - 29
Tran - 29
HM - 28
Moltar - 27
Guest (War (2), KP (2), Dp, Justin, greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai, Klennex, Luis (2), Scott, Soul (2), Leon, Ed, Luster) - 20
Lopen - 17
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Moltar Status: augh
Cube/Tidus/Mega Man/Nero - Bracket: Mega > Tidus - Vote: Mega (137/192)

LeonhartFour | Posted 10/28/2008 9:12:19 AM | message detail | #230 | filter

i think im gonna back out of the squall write-up, im sure Leon will jump on the opportunity.

But I already sent in my analysis for the Snake match! I guess someone else can take it.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi

Division 5: Round 2 - Match 42 – Ryu Hayabusa vs. Zero vs. Solid Snake vs. Vivi Ornitier

Moltar’s Analysis

Ryu H.
Round 1 - 36.53% vs. Zero, Pit and King Dedede

So now the guy is beating Zero? Dude just keeps getting stronger.

Zero
Round 1 - 35.44% vs. Ryu H., Pit and King Dedede

Doing the Mega Man series no favors here.

Snake
Round 1 - 51.60% vs. Vivi, Wesker and Sackboy

See Snake win that day vote? yeahhhhhhhhh baby

Vivi
Round 1 - 25.96% vs. Snake, Wesker and Sackboy

The Black Mage holds up well against Snake.

At first, everyone was like “Snake > Zero good day gents”, but now…well things have changed a bit for this match. One thing that hasn’t changed is that Snake will still take first by a wide margin. He looked fine in Round 1, although most people expected more because he has had Brawl and MGS4.

The battle for second is hot though. Ryu beat Zero in Round 1, but remember what happened to Ryu last year in Round 2 when Snake was put in the poll? He died and lost to Riku, who he defeated with ease the round before. I think the same thing will happen here, where Ryu’s support will get swallowed up by Snake more so than the others. Therefore, he takes last.

As for Zero, last round it can be argued that Dedede and Pit hurt his chances at beating Ryu. Considering Zero only lost by a percent, that could very well be the case. He also should not suffer as much as Ryu with Snake here. He’ll hold up fairly well with that old-school Nintendo vote.

Vivi has a great shot to take second, but something about his R1 performance worries me. Yes, he held up very well against a (potentially) boosted Snake, and he does stand out well against the three other “badasses”, but I’m not feeling good about the mage.

I have a feeling this is another Vincent/Falco/Gordon/Scorpion situation. Vivi over performed last round due to weak competition and Snake underperforming a bit. Vivi also stands out in the match like Falco did, but I don’t think it will help much. The Mage should capitalize off Ryu’s suffering though, so I don’t see him taking last.

Anyway, the match should go something like last year’s Round 2 match with Snake and Ryu went, with Zero edging out Vivi.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Snake > Zero

Moltar’s Prediction is: Snake: 37% - Zero: 23% - Vivi: 21% - Ryu H.: 19%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Time for some Snake redemption.

After Snake looked suprisingly 'normal' last round, I'm expecting him to shine like much of the Noble Nine have this round. For whatever reason, most of them have looked better this round against tougher competition. Snake's got a much tougher pack this time, but he should still be able to put up some big numbers - at the least, he should out do Mega Man's 36% performance today, although if he doesn't there's not much need to sound the alarms for next round, with this group being much stronger than Cube/Tidus/(lol) Nero.

This match is all about second place, though. Any of the three here could end up stealing second. Most would have considered Zero an easy choice pre-contest, but after losing to Hayabusa last round and Vivi putting up some great numbers, it's up in the air what happens. If anyone's going to be hurt in this match, it'll probably be Hayabusa. There's not a big connection between the two, but when it comes to vying for that 'badass' vote, you're always gonna lose it if you're up against Snake.

That leaves Vivi and Zero - tough choice. Zero's been the stronger of the two for years, but he hasn't looked all that impressive as of late. When it comes to competing in the low-20s, I think Vivi's the better choice of the two. He managed to put up those numbers with Tidus hanging around in the poll, only barely losing to Pikachu last year. I don't doubt Zero has the dedicated fanbase he needs, but once again, I can't put too much trust in Mega Man to do well - all things from the series seems to disappoint whenever it gets the chance.

That said, with how much stronger Zero has shown to be than Vivi, I wouldn't be surprised if Zero wins here - and he should be considered the favorite. But Vivi's impressive first round, his ability to net low 20s and bracket bias (woo) makes me take him here. We'll see how it goes. Besides this match is all about Snake putting on up some big numberz !

Prediction: Solid Snake - 40% ; Vivi - 22% ; Zero - 20% ; Ryu H - 18%
Vote: Snake

Yoblazer’s Analysis

What was once a relatively safe second round match has been flip-turned upside down by even more first round hijinks! As such, this match between Ryu Hayabusa, Zero, Solid Snake, and Vivi is much more interesting, and Zero's path into Round 3 is equally more perilous.

Let's start this examination with the only guy who matters. For Snake, this Round 2 encounter is strangely similar to the one he had last year. He fought the same Ryu H., a different NewSquare character (Riku) instead of Vivi, and a different badass (Nightmare) instead of Zero. Fortunately for our boy, he rocked that trio for nearly 48% last year. Unfortunately for him, there are some big reasons why he shouldn't do nearly as well this year. Zero may have lost a step, but he's still far ahead of Nightmare. Hayabusa is probably a bit stronger (Ninja Gaiden II), and Vivi is probably stronger than Riku (judging by their performances against Leon Kennedy). These factors, coupled with Snake's rather dark and dreary picture, will drill into his percentage. I think 40% is a good mark for him here.

In Round 1, Ryu Hayabusa shocked the world... sorta. He went into his opening match as an underdog against Zero, but he managed to come out on top. Granted, he won by less than one percent, but a surprising win is a surprising win. Thus, some people think that Ryu H. might be able to contend today on the heels of his impressive performance. I disagree. Last year, Ryu kicked ass in Round 1 only to succumb to Snake's badass SFF powers and lose in Round 2. I expect the same result this time around. It can easily be argued that Zero was more hampered by their first round competition (cartoony style, Nintendo affiliation), and that was just enough to let Ryu sneak through for the victory. Couple this with the opinion that Snake should hurt Hayabusa more (once again, similar design and appeal), and I think Zero will turn the tables. In fact, I expect to see him beat Ryu more comfortably than most people are assuming.

However, it's not Hayabusa who is Zero's main competition this round, but Vivi. The black mage didn't turn any heads against Snake in their last match, barely avoiding a doubling. However, he could very well be on the plus end of a favorable fanbase split. Snake, Zero, Hayabusa. What's the main thing these guys all have in common? They're action hero badasses! As the only RPG guy, Square guy, and non-badass in the field, Vivi definitely stands out, and he could ride Snake's domination over the two lesser badasses to a second place finish.

Truth be told, I actually did consider Vivi a slight favorite...before seeing the match picture. Vivi looks alright, there's no problem with his own picture. The problem for the mage is Snake's picture. It isn't even necessarily that bad (hell, I like it), but it's very dark and features Old Snake, thereby making Zero's bright, vibrant picture stand out even more. Even though Snake should still blast Hayabusa, I think he may have a bit more trouble reaching Zero with such a huge picture contrast, although Vivi will still likely benefit from the split. It's Zero's intrinsic strength advantage versus Vivi's possible fanbase split advantage, and it's more a coin flip than ever. Like Alucard/Pikachu, when it's a coin flip, I may as well go with my bracket and the guy I prefer.

Ryu Hayabusa - 17%
Zero - 22%
Solid Snake - 40%
Vivi Ornitier - 21%

Lopen’s Analysis

I have a feeling Vivi will be the favorite in this one. I don't really support it, though. Take it from someone who took Ryu H > Zero in his bracket last round: Zero can lose to Hayabusa and still have a good chance to advance here. Ryu Hayabusa thrives from there being no vote sponge. I mean, he beat Riku and Roxas COMBINED and choked it away from Snake. I'm thinkin he'll be in the running for last here. Vivi in just as bad a position because Zero and Ryu H >> Sackboy and Wesker, and he only got 25% last round.

Now, I'm not sure how many of the Vivi pickers will go for him based on Vivi or based on Zero. I'm just shooting down the idea that Zero has no chance in this match due to losing to Hayabusa. Now, Vivi did okay last round... though really, in Vivi's position I think Zero could've done at least as well. I mean, look at the people in that match weren't Snake. Fodder with sunglasses and fodder (whose game hasn't even come out yet) in a bag. I'd be surprised if Zero couldn't hit 30% there pretty easily. Look at how well he did last year against Crono/Raiden/HK-47, a pack that's probably tougher. Sure, Snake > Crono, but Raiden and HK >> Sackboy and Wesker.

Or maybe Vivi isn't the favorite and I'm just preachin to the choir here.

Lopen's prediction:
Solid Snake – 35.73%
Zero – 27.04%
Ryu Hayabusa – 18.85%
Vivi – 18.54%

Transience’s Analysis

today's match should be a good one - like the Freeman match, it's three dudes with differing chances to win. Snake's clearly got first, so I'll just do some pros and cons for each character:

Vivi:

+ already held up well against Snake
+ fan-favourite type role that should thrive in this environment
- didn't really have much competition as the only other non-Snake option
- Zidane did pretty much awful in round 2 - sure, Zack was there, but it eliminates any talk of a weird "FF9 boost".

Ryu Hayabusa:

+ looked GREAT in round 1, edging Zero when he got doubled a few years back
+ 360 site-shift + Ninja Gaiden 2 makes him the most relevant of the three, especially considering Zero and Vivi are fading hard
- has a weird tendency to look great in round 1 and falter against really strong competition (see: Riku last year)
- his recency may hurt him in that he doesn't have the throwback appeal that Zero and Vivi do; Snake is *the* character of the last couple of years, so I can see him being hurt by Snake more than anyone else.

Zero:

+ the most important point is his biggest strength: he's the most unique of the four with his SNES roots
+ should have a strong fanbase loyalty
- Mega Man's been dying lately, and Zero isn't unaffected
- say what you will about Hayabusa, a former top 15 character losing to him is flat-out embarrassing
- Black Turtle

Ryu's gonna choke
Vivi? shares the Playstation
Zero's the best pick

transience's prediction:

Snake - 39.01%
Zero - 21.22%
Ryu Hayabusa - 20.22%
Vivi - 19.55%

Ngamer’s Analysis

Well shoot, this match was a bit of a dud. WCC's going to lose about 2.5% off R1, but he's still doing a much better job of keeping a static fanbase than I gave him credit for, which is... troubling, to say the least. On the plus side, next up is the sprite round- surely the Cube will look awful there while MM will as always be going in with a major advantage. On top of that, we'll probably be seeing Solid *(&% which ought to allow MM to stick closer to a 50/50 with Snake than normally, further hurting the Cube's chances. The one fly in the ointment would be if Zero advanced to that match alongside MM and held him back enough to put WCC back in contention. Luckily Ryu H easily outlasted Zero back in R1, and we have no reason to bel- *looks back at the last time Snake ran into Ryu H* Oh crap!

Time to discuss what could possibly turn into the greatest fatal threeway in Contest history!

X-Stats from Round One
Snake - 44.98% (based on Wesker '07)
Vivi - 30.11% (based on Wesker '07)
Ryu H - 27.52% (based on Pit '07)
Zero - 27.10% (based on Pit '07)

Yes Vivi looked great, but I get the feeling that was largely anti-favoriteFAQs at work, in the same way that so many jumped off Vincent in favor of Falco back in R1. As with Vincent's match, I don't see that trend holding here for R2.

As I alluded to earlier, the last time Snake and Ryu went head to head, Solid came out of the match with 48% while Ryu couldn't even manage 19%. That was back when their competition was Riku and Nighmare; sub those two out for the stronger Zero and Vivi and Snake's percent is sure to come down, as will Ryu's... right? Well on the one hand the 360 has seemingly asserted itself and turned Ninja Gaiden into a better threat, especially with the ASV. But on the other, Snake figures to perform better than back in '07 himself, especially when drawing full MGS4 appeal with this picture, so shouldn't he more or less retain that ratio on Ryu? Not sure, but I've decided not to put much faith in the final result from round one and will be picking Hayabusa for a close last place in this one.

Zero's a bit of an odd duck. Sure he hemorrhaged up votes all through the Day and kind of embarrassed himself by giving Ryu the win, but how much of that underperformance needs to be tied back to the two Nintendo/Brawl characters who may have been holding him back? And if Ryu gets held back again by whatever killed him against Snake last time (badass SFF?), is Zero going to be immune? You'd think he'd have a larger hardcore fanbase than Ryu, since it would make sense for Hayabusa getting much of his appeal from looking like an awesome ninja. All things considered I like Zero to outlast the ninja this time around. But will it be enough for second? That all depends on...

Vivi! So cool to see him not wasted in this bracket, and sporting full-on Black Mage Factor in this pic, which is undoubtedly his biggest advantage. The more Snake dominates this match, the better Vivi's chances get I would think, as the Final Fantasy fanbase is probably the most dedicated of the three. He should also most likely do the best job of avoiding this "badass SFF" if that's really going to be a factor, as that's where Zero gets much of his appeal within the MM fanbase. All that considered... eh, I still don't feel good about backing him. Yes, he ought to have an excellent chance, but I keep coming back to that Falco result and others like it that we've seen in R2- just have this gut feeling that the bubble is going to burst against tough cookies like Ryu and Zero.

So in the end I'll say Snake with a good sized win (nothing like that '07 domination though) and then Zero just barely over Vivi just barely over Ryu. But I don't do so with much confidence! Let's stir the pot and find some numbers...

Solid Snake - 38.20%
Zero - 21.11%
Vivi Ornitier - 20.68%
Ryu Hayabusa - 20.01%

That looks... like a heck of a match!

Ngamer Says: Snake > Zero

Guest’s Analysis - Leonhart

Ryu Hayabusa

In my opinion, Ryu Hayabusa pulled off one of the bigger surprises of the first round. He used a big day vote to come back and beat a guy who beat him 63/37 just three years ago in Zero. Can he impress again and move into the third round for the first time ever? Remember that the ninja was lookin’ good going into this round last year, having gotten more percentage than Riku and Roxas combined, and…he still lost somehow. Hayabusa is going to be the least established character in the poll, but none of his competitors for second place are far above him. He’s got a shot, at least, even if he’s not the favorite. Hayabusa only got 19% on Snake last year, and that probably won’t be enough here. He’ll have to get some more from somewhere to advance here.

Zero

My, how the mighty have fallen! From 48% on Sonic in 2003 and equal with Snake in 2004 to losing to a guy he beat with 63% back in 2005. That’s where Zero is now. He has no excuses for losing that match. Some people are blaming DeDeDe and Pit hindering him a bit, but I don’t buy it. Some people said Zero was being SFF’d by Mario in 2005, but he’s proven that performance was legit. I don’t think he’s as susceptible to Nintendo SFF as some have thought (I’m really starting to think Mega Man’s either an exception or a fluke). Still, Zero’s not out of it. We’ve seen several characters lose close ones in round one and then somehow blow out the same guy the next round. It’s not like Vivi is a powerhouse either, so Zero can redeem himself a bit here. Will he do it? (Kinda hopin’ he doesn’t so BT can’t weasel out of that account bet next round! Nothin’ personal, Zero!)

Solid Snake

Solid Snake didn’t look quite so solid last round, but then again, no one in the Noble Nine really did last round, and they’re lookin’ better overall this round. Perhaps Snake can rebound, though he’s got a tough fourpack. Sure, none of these guys are anywhere close to his league, but they’re three solid midcarders. Snake’s got a chance to impress greatly if he can blow this fourpack away. Zero and Hayabusa are big time casual bait, and Snake is the ultimate casual bait. He could use that to his advantage. I’d say 43-45% is a good mark of where Snake needs to get in order to look like he can actually hang with the likes of Samus and Mario like many of us think he can.

Vivi Orunitia

…Or however you want to spell his last name. Vivi looked really good last round, blowing Wesker and Sackboy out of the water and avoiding the doubling from Snake. That alone should be enough to grant him the favorite status here for second place. Of course, there’s a recurring issue that we’ve seen pop up from time to time, something I like to call the OFPF (Obvious First Place Factor). Some people think that a second place character can overperform and look better than they really are because, if first place is an obvious winner, some people might throw their votes elsewhere. We’ve seen something similar to that happen to Nightmare twice, might’ve happened to Sub-Zero against Sonic last year in round 1, seemed like it just happened to Falco recently, and chances are good it’s happening to Nero right now (writing this before that match starts)! I don’t want to damper your hopes, Vivi fans, ‘cause I’m rootin’ for the little guy, too. Just don’t be surprised if he blows this one somehow. After all, he got beaten handily by Leon Kennedy twice last year (who looks to be a step above Hayabusa and Zero at this point, but still), barely beat Tidus, and lost cleanly to Pikachu. Would you pick Zero or Hayabusa to do that?

Snake Over Hayabusa
Comes Again Here
Tired Old Act

Ryu Hayabusa – 16.90%
Zero – 19.20%
Solid Snake – 44.44%
Vivi Orunitia – 19.46%

Crew Consensus: We still believe in Zero! Snake > Zero is the majority, but Snake > Vivi has two supporters.

DpObliVion | Posted 10/28/2008 9:33:17 PM | message detail | #236 | filter

Make that three!

DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

UPSET SPECIAL!

Ha, like I have confidence in anything anymore....

2 years ago I confidently called Luigi to beat Zero, but Vivi may have too much of an uphill climb, here. Just how popular is the black mage? We've seen him get 40% on Zelda, and losing by over 2 percent to Pikachu while being SFFed by Tidus (and slightly beating Tidus, too).

Zero has a reputation of strength in this contest, but what has he done since a surprisingly close finish against Sonic in 2003 and keeping it close against Mega Man when he should've been SFFed to hell in 2004? Finishing 2nd behind Ryu Hayabusa in Round 1 certainly did not help his case, either.

Anyway, I expect a pretty tight three-way battle for 2nd, and I can see Vivi, Zero, and Ryu Hayabusa finish in any order behind Snake, but I'm gonna go with the devoted Final Fantasy crowd to sneak Vivi through.

Dp's bracket says: Snake > Vivi

Dp's prediction is: Snake > Vivi

Snake - 37.50%
Vivi - 21.50%
Zero - 21%
Ryu - 20%

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

Ngamer64 | Posted 10/28/2008 10:14:17 PM | message detail | #237 | filter

Ha, awesome that Ryu goes from beating Zero cleanly to a unanimous last place finish in our preds. (Well, except for Lopen, but come on, it's Lopen.)

And looks like we were smart for doing so!

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Lopen | Posted 10/28/2008 10:17:17 PM | message detail | #238 | filter

Ironic that you doubt my cred in calling Hayabusa correctly considering last round !!

Hayabusa will best that Black Mage, let the power hour calm down!
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe

Tatl | Posted 10/28/2008 11:34:50 PM | message detail | #239 | filter

Is the Cloud/Midna/Mewtwo/Pac-Man guest slot still open?

If so, I'll take it.
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Score as of 10/25: 144
Bracket: Solid Snake > Zero - Vote: Ryu Hayabusa

Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/28/2008 11:35:29 PM | message detail | #240 | filter

Tatl (#239)
Is the Cloud/Midna/Mewtwo/Pac-Man guest slot still open?

If so, I'll take it.

Sorry, I have it.
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Maybe if you wish upon a star, your legs won't burn.
Standing on a star is stupid.

Tatl | Posted 10/28/2008 11:39:19 PM | message detail | #241 | filter

T_T
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Score as of 10/25: 144
Bracket: Solid Snake > Zero - Vote: Ryu Hayabusa

-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/29/2008 1:31:00 AM | message detail | #242 | filter

i think im gonna back out of the squall write-up, im sure Leon will jump on the opportunity.

But I already sent in my analysis for the Snake match! I guess someone else can take it.

I'll be interested in the Squall match. Plus, I have Squall > Sora in my bracket and would like to call a Squall > Sora upset.
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transience | Posted 10/29/2008 1:44:16 AM | message detail | #243 | filter

...no one took Ryu? seriously?

well, kudos, I suppose.
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xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la

WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/29/2008 7:37:44 AM | message detail | #244 | filter

Hey! I got the point for AluWARd aww yeah
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...I'm still War13104!
"and seriously, white flags, god damnit. v.v" - ExThaNemesis, 11:44 PM EST, 1/28/07

Weighted Companion Cube.......28.62% 39758
Tidus...............................................22.75% 31608
Mega Man......................................36.51% 50711
Nero................................................12.12% 16834
TOTAL VOTES..........................................138911

What Happened - Well, just like Crono, Mega beats out the joke character without much difficulty. Tidus comes in a distant third, and Nero...pretty much just sucks it up.

Why it Happened - Nero's bomb here can be explained by an overperformance last round (because of Banjo/Olimar competition). Nothing else looks out of the ordinary here though. Cube got the solid 28%, MM and Tidus do as expected.

What Will Happen - This match didn't really change much for R3...though it does solidify Cube as a threat to advance.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay everyone (except Lopen and Guest)!

Yoblazer - 28
Ngamer - 26
HM - 26
Tran - 24
Moltar - 24
Guest - 23
Lopen - 21

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Molt gets points for Mega, Yo gets the point for Cube, Molt and Yo get points for Tidus, and HM gets the point for Nero

Yoblazer - 33
Ngamer - 29
Tran - 29
HM - 29
Moltar - 29
Guest (War (2), KP (2), Dp, Justin, greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai, Klennex, Luis (2), Scott, Soul (2), Leon, Ed, Luster) - 20
Lopen - 17

-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/29/2008 6:29:52 PM | message detail | #246 | filter

My analysis on the Squall match is sent in.
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Division 6: Round 2 - Match 43 – Sora vs. Fox McCloud vs. Squall Leonhart vs. Yoshi

Moltar’s Analysis

Sora
Round 1 - 39.14% vs. Fox, Chris and Tim

“Squall? Not this **** again”

Fox
Round 1 - 30.46% vs. Sora, Chris and Tim

“A Mario character? Not this **** again”

Squall
Round 1 - 45.06% vs. Yoshi, CATS and Nathan

“Sora? Not this **** again”

Yoshi
Round 1 - 32.82% vs. Squall, CATS and Nathan

“let’s do this”

Well, this has always been an interesting match, and I’ve been looking forward to it since the bracket’s release. Round 1 put a lot of things on the table, so let’s run through that first.

First up, you have Square impressing and Nintendo disappointing. This is shown in Squall and Yoshi’s match, but not with Sora and Fox. Sora did as expected, pretty much, and Fox looked a little worse than expected, though that was more before of Chris being not crap. Honestly, this match really didn’t say much in terms of what to expect in Round 2. Sora needed a better performance to look like the favorite in Round 2, but with the numbers he pulled, it’s not like his chances were hurt.

Then again, it wasn’t Sora who needed to make himself look like the favorite, Yoshi did that just fine by stinking it up big time. He was expected to get pretty close to Squall, and instead, he gets beaten by about double the expected margin. I still have no clue what happened here other than some random Squall overperformance or something.

So Squall pretty much solidified himself to take first, but that was expected from most. The big question is “Who take second, Sora or Yoshi?” Before the contest, Yoshi was by far the favorite. We saw Squall SFF Sora last year, and we knew that Yoshi would SFF Fox. Now, with Yoshi’s weak Round 1 performance, some people doubt him and feel that Sora will survive the SFF and advance with Squall.

I’m not buying that. Last year, when you had Squall and Sora in the same match, and Aeris wasn’t dragging down Squall with her, Sora was beat down to 3% away from Sub-Zero. Now you bring Yoshi and Fox into the mix, and Yoshi definitely benefits not only from being the Nintendo favorite over Fox, but from just being plain stronger. When faced with SFF in this format last year, Yoshi looked good. Hell, even with Mega Man and Samus in the poll, Yoshi was still able to pull in 19% of the vote and take third over Scorpion. So I don’t see why he’d all of a sudden fail with it here.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Squall > Yoshi

Moltar’s Prediction is: Squall: 35% - Yoshi: 29% - Sora: 25% - Fox: 11%

Yoblazer’s Analysis

Yet another grueling second round match. Calling these correctly is fun; missing them is torture. Let's see if I'll get lucky in this match between Sora, Fox, Squall, and Yoshi. I'll be doing something a bit different this time, though. Instead of analyzing our foursome as individuals, I'll first take a look at them as "teams" (Square vs. Nintendo) before breaking the teams up and looking at them as solos. First up, Square!

Squall and Sora put up about 56-58% on their respective opponents in the last round. All things being equal, one would believe that they would then put up a combined ~57% in this match. However, taking SFF into account yields different conclusions. Obviously, there has always been SFF between New Square characters, but it's nothing like good ol' fashioned Nintendo SFF, so I think Squall and Sora can hit the impressive 60% mark. After all, these two amassed a combined 51% on Sonic and Sub-Zero last year, so I have little doubt about them doing far better against a far worse duo. Heck, I was entertaining the thought of putting them >60, but I then remembered that Sephiroth + Big Boss couldn't even reach the high 50s on Mario + Fox last year, so 60 for these two seems like a healthy, challenging target.

And just how will they do relative to each other? Well, in that same match against Sonic and Sub-Zero, Squall scored a relative 60% on Sora. There isn't much reason to expect a drastic change this year, but Squall's picture (lmao) looks mighty goofy, so I'll give Sora a teeny bit more respect. You're up, Nintendo!

If this match plays out how I envision it, the Nintendo guys won't be looking that great. After all, they'll be splitting a mere 40% of the vote between them. Yoshi is the huge bracket favorite, but it's now clear that he'll be starting this thing a few paces behind Sora. In order to make good on his favorite status, he has to really abuse his lesser teammate, Fox McCloud. Can he do it? Yeah, I think so. Fox has proven to pack some pop against the weaksauce Nintendo characters, but Yoshi is far higher up the pecking order. Yes, the furry flier crushed the likes of Captain Falcon and Wario, but watching Mario vanquish him with 81%+ was pretty telling, in my opinion. Now, I don't expect Yoshi to approach that level of dominance, but I do expect him to crack a relative 60% and then some.

Of course, going by the percentages I've allocated to the teams, that still makes the battle between Sora and Yoshi a heated one. For the third time in four days, I'm using the words "coin flip" to describe a match. In such a situation, I tend to go with the guy I prefer or the guy in my bracket. Yoshi's in my bracket. I prefer Sora. Decisions, decisions! Eh, let's give it to Yoshi and call it a day.

Sora - 25%
Fox McCloud - 14%
Squall Leonhart - 35%
Yoshi - 26%

Lopen’s Analysis

So, first of all, I have Yoshi beating Squall here because I'm idiot. I'm like "oh Sora will weaken Squall enough." I uhhh... forgot that Squall almost beat Sonic last year with Sora in the match. "Whoops." Oh, and Round 1.

That being said, people sayin that Sora holds up perfectly against Squall, they need to remember that last year in R2 Aeris was there. Now, Squall was both annoyed by Aeris pestering him to buy a flower and Sora giving him a lecture about LIGHT LIGHT HEARTS LIGHT. Flowers + hearts + light... oh gawd it's totally destroying Mr. Ellipse, all the cheer.

... so the point here, is that when Aeris left in R3, cheer levels went back to normal, and Squall owned Sora. I expect a similar owning here... in spite of Yoshi's cheer, which will be subdued by Fox. Will it be enough, though? Squall did rip Yoshi's head off last round. How bad, Timmy? Friggin 12%? Man, yeah, pretty sick. I, however, think Yoshi fans are a bit more blindly devoted than Sora fans, and will hold up better when the going gets tough. And Nintendo LFF is overrated when you're not a Smash exclusive... don't think Fox shouldn't be a problem.

Man, I hope not, though. Go Sora, kick that green bastard's ass! DIE YOSHI DIE.

Lopen's prediction:
Squall – 34.20%
Yoshi – 26.47%
Sora – 24.23%
Fox – 15.10%

Transience’s Analysis

looks like a good match today -- hilarious how bad Ryu bombed here. Ryu always does this stuff -- Sora, Riku and now this one. he's so damn hard to figure out despite never having any weird overlap.

tonight's match is two Nintendo, two Square. all things equal, the edge should go to Square -- their fans are more loyal, they've been doing better this contest, and the format in general seems to support them. we also get to see a Mario character threatened - it's not an ideal threat since Sora and Squall are in the same match, but Mario's been bombing left and right and Sora was already at Yoshi's level so the chance is certainly there.

the thing is, Fox is far less of a burden on Yoshi than Squall is on Sora. Fox is like Yoshi-lite, a fan fave that's in a third or fourth tier Nintendo series; Yoshi's got all that and then some and should SFF him pretty good. Sora can't claim to hold up too well with Squall.

the one weird thing here: Squall almost beat Sonic last year with Sora in the poll. if Squall and Sora actually have separate fanbases somehow, Sora's got this thing. can't see it happening though. Sora's got a decent core fanbase as demonstrated by Aeris/Squall/Sora last year, but it ain't good enough to hold up to Yoshi, I'm afraid.

Sora and Yoshi
equal strength, unequal split
too bad for Sora

transience's prediction:

Fox McCloud - 11.33%
Sora - 24.87%
Squall Leonhart - 36.35%
Yoshi - 27.45%

Ngamer’s Analysis

Awww man, what an awesome match. Ryu sure dropped the ball as far as the fatal threeway went (what the heck, Snake must just be that guy's kryptonite), but what a show Zero and Vivi have put on! When Zero got out to the big lead I wasn't sold- he'd done the same thing against Ryu before fading away, and Vivi figured to have the kind of huge night vote that we often see from FF8-9-10. But when it was four hours in and Zero not only had a huge lead but was still gaining, I threw in the towel on Vivi- no way you can come back from that without a MC-like day vote. Then I checked this aft and... Vivi was up by like 200, and gaining! I was amazed, but figured Zero could probably still take the ASV to pull out a narrow win. But then we were a full hour into what's usually the ASV, and Zero was doing nothing- still down a bunch, only going even, and since Vivi was sure to take the second night vote in any case, I threw in the towel on Zero. Then I got in from work an hour ago and... Zero back out to a big lead! This time around I'm holding on to my towel with a death grip; I've got no idea what to think anymore!

And, oh yeah, there's another potentially awesome match on the way for tonight!

X-Stats from Round One
Squall - 29.40% (based on '07 CATS)
Yoshi - 24.78% (based on '07 CATS)
Sora - 20.00% (based on '07 Chris)
Fox - 17.50% (based on '07 Chris)

Have to kind of hurry with this one as those last innings of the World Series (congrats Phils!) have put me a bit behind. Pre-Contest this was considered a pretty easy advancement for Squall and Yoshi, with the only question being what order they would go in. But after the way both Square guys dropped bombs on their Nintendo counterparts, all of a sudden Sora sneaking through here looks like at least a possibility, while it would take something truly crazy for Yoshi to pull the upset and finish first. A moment ago I was planning to predict Squall for a pretty easy win, Yoshi to advance but not with much room to spare ahead of Sora, and Fox to get SFFed pounded well out of contention. But now let's look at this pic...

Good heavens, what happened to you Squall!? For all the grief Tidus has taken over the years for looking like Meg Ryan, that's a MUCH worse look than anything the FFX lead has ever sported. Seriously, wow. Sora looks pretty goofy too, but he's at least saved by showing an anime look that seems to do pretty well with this GameFAQs crowd. Yoshi's pretty meh; not a bad picture for him but pretty generic. And Fox once again looks great! Of course I said the same last round and that didn't stop him getting beaten bloody... but yeah, I'd be very shocked if Yoshi was able to hurt him too badly with SFF when he comes out looking that good.

Soooo let's take those thoughts and throw something together quickly. Into the pot and stirred and what have we here...

Squall Leonhart - 31.76%
Yoshi - 25.17%
Sora - 23.06%
Fox McCloud - 20.01%

That looks... really bad! But I have no time to correct it! Come on Fox, prove me right.

Guest’s Analysis - Luster Soldier

First round performance

Sora - 1st place with 39.14%
Fox - 2nd place with 30.46%
Failed advances - Chris Redfield (3rd place with 23.84%) and Tim (4th place with 6.57%)

Squall - 1st place with 45.06%
Yoshi - 2nd place with 32.82%
Failed advances - CATS (3rd place with 15.25%) and Nathan Drake (4th place with 6.87%)

I'll lay this down right from the start... first place and last place are both quite obvious here. Squall will have first and Fox will come in last. The battle for second will be between Yoshi and Sora.

In the first round, Squall performed a major beatdown on Yoshi, by about 12%. 45% is no joke here, when your next strongest opponent is a high tier Nintendo character. Sora also easily beat up Fox, but only by about 9%. I also think Sora might have underperformed a bit due to a bad picture. Sora had a picture where he showed off most of his back, but with almost no shot of his face. Now Sora gets a better picture showing off his face.

I picked Squall > Sora in my bracket, then I found out that it was considered a risk in the Guru. It wasn't until Nintendo started bombing hard this contest and then Squall's absolute destruction of Yoshi that I regained confidence in my Squall > Sora pick. Yoshi will not be advancing tomorrow. Tomorrow's match is a double-edged sword - SFF between Fox and Yoshi and also between Squall and Sora.

Yoshi shall have trouble trying to beat Sora for second place, because Fox will be there to SFF him. Yoshi is quite low on the tier lists for all three Smash games and Fox is higher up there. Fox is a more casual friendly option for Smash players, so Fox will drain Yoshi of his Smash support. With Fox and Yoshi choking each other, Sora should come out easily and dominate both of them in the ASV. Yoshi also has Brawl de-boost working against him too. SFF and Brawl de-boost will be the cause for Yoshi's downfall tomorrow.

Then the issue of SFF between Squall and Sora. I do not think Sora will be hurt by SFF at all. Just look at Squall's round 2 match from last year, which also had Sora involved. There, Sora finished within 4% of Squall and finished over 10% above Aeris. Lara Croft came pretty close to Aeris in that match. My theory on Squall is that he can SFF other FF characters, but can't SFF non-FF Square characters. Squall was able to SFF Aeris, while Sora remained unaffected. Squall and Aeris are featured in both of the main KH games, but I think Squall had more to do with Aeris looking bad last year. Squall and Aeris are both in the New Square category. Sora almost pulled off 30% here with two other Square characters in the match. Sora was quite vicious during the ASV, cutting Squall's lead from 5164 to 4343. With Square mostly overperforming this year, I expect Sora to have second place easily.

Luster Soldier's prediction: Sora - 25.33%, Fox - 15.54%, Squall - 34.82%, Yoshi - 24.31%

Crew Consensus: Even after Yoshi's poor performance last round, the majority still says Squall > Yoshi

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