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Character Battle VII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

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DpObliVion | Posted 10/24/2008 9:59:00 PM | message detail | #151 | filter

I'm typically not one to put much stock in the pic, but I just feel like in this case it is completely robbing him of his strength.

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

rpgking17 | Posted 10/24/2008 10:09:40 PM | message detail | #152 | filter

Let's go Falco!
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"Reality leaves a lot to the imagination."~John Lennon

trannyscience | Posted 10/24/2008 10:13:11 PM | message detail | #153 | filter

Falco lovin' freaks
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif

DpObliVion | Posted 10/24/2008 10:23:46 PM | message detail | #154 | filter

Knew I should've said Vincent > Gordon....

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

trannyscience | Posted 10/24/2008 10:25:36 PM | message detail | #155 | filter

yeah, I liked Gordon too.. just couldn't pull the trigger on him. I knew it was between him and Scorpion again.
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xyzzy
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/24/2008 10:30:10 PM | message detail | #156 | filter

Falco is starting to collapse, in the Power Hour LOL. I think Brawl de-boost is at work here. I had lowered my Oracle prediction on Falco a bit when I considered Brawl de-boost making him do worse than expected.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~

Samus Aran.....40.21% 49439
Nightmare........15.24% 18744
Ganondorf........24.63% 30282
Frog...................19.93% 24502
TOTAL VOTES.............122967

What Happened - Nothing out of the ordinary here. Samus hits Ganon a little harder than most thought, and Frog and Nightmare do as expected.

Why it Happened - In a contest were Nintendo underperforms, it's nice to see Samus put up some good numbers here. Of course, it was at the expense of another Nintendo character. Still, Ganondorf is much stronger than Frog, so even with the SFF here, Frog didn't have much of a chance.

What Will Happen - Samus looking good in Round 3. Nothing here changed the landscape though.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay everyone!

Yoblazer - 27
Ngamer - 25
HM - 24
Tran - 23
Moltar - 22
Guest - 20
Lopen - 20

Crew Accuracy Challenge - HM gets the point for Samus, Lopen gets the point for Ganon, Tran gets the point for Frog and Luis gets the point for Nightmare

Yoblazer - 28
Ngamer - 27
HM - 26
Tran - 26
Moltar - 24
Lopen - 17
Guest (War, KP (2), Dp, Justin, greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai, Klennex, Luis (2), Scott, Soul, Leon, Ed) - 17
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Moltar Status: augh
Vincent/Falco/Scorpion/Gordon - Bracket: Vincent > Scorpion - Vote: Falco (121/168)

Luis_Sera89 | Posted 10/25/2008 10:18:06 AM | message detail | #158 | filter

Epic Lopen/Guest struggle.
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"Eet's game time..."

RaeSaraneth | Posted 10/25/2008 2:15:26 PM | message detail | #159 | filter

Hey, I got my Samus>Ganondorf yesterday so I'm pretty confident with my Vincent>Gordon today :D
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^_^

-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/25/2008 5:17:06 PM | message detail | #160 | filter

w00t! My Guest analysis has been sent.
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Lopen | Posted 10/25/2008 6:47:05 PM | message detail | #161 | filter

And what's great is, Lopen and Soul are the only two that score today.

Whoa yeah, Lopen and the Guest are comin for ya, crew!
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe

-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/25/2008 7:08:37 PM | message detail | #162 | filter

I am going to try and redeem some points for the Guest with tonight's analysis.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/25/2008 8:55:31 PM | message detail | #163 | filter

this analysis better be brilliant, luster
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CB7 Score: 128/168
http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg

Division 4: Round 2 - Match 39 – Crono vs. Amaterasu vs. L-Block vs. Ryu

Moltar’s Analysis

Crono
Round 1 - 49.22% vs. Amaterasu, Frank and Kaim

Not bad, Crono.

Amaterasu
Round 1 - 26.56% vs. Crono, Frank and Kaim

Awesome job, Ammy! Prove that you aren’t fodder.

L-Block
Round 1 - 31.81% vs. Ryu, Meta Knight and The Dog

well then

Ryu
Round 1 - 31.57% vs. Ryu, Meta Knight and The Dog

You’ve failed, Ryu.

IT’S A TETRIS PIECE!!

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Crono > Ryu (**** this match)

Moltar’s Prediction is: L-Block: 35% - Crono: 31% - Ryu: 23% - Ammy: 11%

Yoblazer’s Analysis

Oh, it's a pretty big Round 2 match, and it's easy to see why. L-Block, the defending champion, is up again, and this time he's already facing Noble 9 competition. Such a scenario would have spelled big trouble for the block in 2007, but he now has THE TITLE around his weight, and it has obviously made a difference. L-Block passed his initial first round test with flying colors, but you might not think that judging by how many Oracle predictors don't have old blocky winning here. In that sense, this will be less a traditional analysis and more a couple paragraphs of me yelling at these people (because hey, we all know that Amaterasu will finish dead last and Crono will beat Ryu it's so booooring!).

People, you need to take the blinders off and start looking at this thing objectively. Last year, L-Block didn't win a match until the quarterfinals. He lost his first round match by 14%. This year, he's already one-for-one. His first round win came despite being against tougher competition than he saw in his opening two rounds last year. He fought down Ryu, a Top 20 performer and a guy who rocked this format last year. He also won the match despite another damn character (!!) sapping 14% of the vote. What is that, if not domination?

L-Block was stronger in Round 1 than nearly anyone predicted or feared, and yet, people still don't have him winning here. I understand that his more "normal" trends last round (he did NOT, amazingly, start with 800% of the vote and proceed to collapse for 24 hours) imbue some of us with a weird sense of hope, but it really shouldn't. It doesn't mean that L-Block has lost his static nature. Why would it mean this? I can see the wishful thinking, but I can't see the logic. No, it means that L-Block is now a legitimate contender with a more static fanbase throughout the day. Speaking of which, those of you who are still holding on to an inkling of hope that the angular nightmare may be killed today might catch a glimpse of something pretty nightmarish. Yes, I'm talking about L-Block outrightly winning the day vote. Look at his competition - if it's gonna happen, now is the time.

Anyway, L-Block is going to win. Write it down. Turn around. Do a hokey pokey and call me a dumbass if I'm wrong, but what we saw in the first round leaves very little logical reason to suspect anything else.

Crono - 31%
Amaterasu - 11%
L-Block - 34%
Ryu (Street Fighter) - 24%

Lopen’s Analysis

Now... what we have here is an L-Block that looks stronger than it did the first few rounds of 2007. I mean, it beat Ryu outright. Normally, it would depend on a strong outside entity to be able to knock opposition the caliber of Ryu down to beatable levels. Not so this year, Ryu lost, but it was a close one.

Now, let me spin some arguments as to how L-Block will lose. The thing had an only somewhat stronger board vote than the rest, it went down only marginally during the day. It had... normal character trends, not joke trends. Perhaps the thing is straight up legit, now. It will still likely beat Ryu here, but when it hits Crono and Vincent in R4? Forget it. No more static fanbase, and Crono and Vincent surely beat Ryu down much harder than it did.

But hell, it might even lose to Ryu here... say the Dog hurt Ryu more, Ryu being "classic gaming at its finest" along with the Dog, with L-Block just being a lame joke. The Dog sports that Classic Look™ just like Ryu. Or maybe Meta-Knight, with Brawl being a fighting (shut up, purists) game, hurt Ryu more!
Jokes also have looked pretty unimpressive. Mudkip's static percentage... lost because he isn't a joke entry? Or perhaps, perhaps... perhaps joke characters are declining? Sandbag surely didn't look very impressive... maybe people are just getting tired of seeing joke characters after they've realized there are like fifteen in the bracket? Who knows! R1-R2 joke decline, we could be seeing it in the making!

... unfortunately, and I REALLY hope I'm wrong here, I think L's going to win this easy. There are outside shots that one of my other far fetched arguments are true, (my personal favorite is the theory that L-Block might be legitimate/non-static this year, but I can't go with it) but... as I said in R1, I believe The Dog hurt L-Block with joke SFF, and that none of my other theories are too likely to be true. Dog hurt him... not by a huge amount, but enough to let L take... say... 35% here? And if that's true, not even Crono will be able to stop that, sorry.

Good night, everybody.

Lopen's prediction:
L-Block – 34.00%
Crono – 28.43%
Ryu – 25.47%
Amaterasu – 12.10%

Transience’s Analysis

this was a hotly debated match pre-contest, but now it's little more than a formality.

sure, there's a chance Crono could rock and snatch first place. but it's not all that likely, really. L-Block was thought to have that 28% threshold, but even with The Dog potentially hurting its base, L put up 32%, beating Ryu in the process. Ryu doing better than L-Block in round 2 is about as likely as Tidus doing better than the Cube in round 2 - it ain't happenin'. it would take some huge L backlash for it not to qualify here, and there's no reason to expect one. Ryu's got a better chance to beat Crono than beating L. (this could actually happen. would be kinda interesting.)

plus, Amaterasu looked great in round 1. that makes the task of getting 32-35% for Ryu even more unlikely. I like L for first here and I don't even know what else to say here. let us all hail our new contest god!

Good morning, Crono!
your game's done well this contest!
but this is L-Block

transience's prediction:

L-Block with 34.66%
Crono with 31.55%
Ryu with 23.21%
Amaterasu with 10.58%

Ngamer’s Analysis

Ugh, darn you Falco! I guess I can't be upset at him for coming up short against Gordon- the guy is clearly just on steroids or something, and I'd never have expected a score like this out of him in a million years. But to not even save face by edging Scorpion despite a significant pic advantage and not having to deal with any LFF? All the faith I had left in Nintendo is quickly leaking out of my left ear .

Alright, so, we come to it at least. A month back this was unanimously agreed upon as the most important R1 matchup, perhaps in history. If only Ryu had been able to capitalize with the SNV and sneak out a victory there, we might be talking about this as the most significant R2 tilt of the season. As is... no one seems to be able to muster much hope.

X-Stats from Round One:
L-Block - 27.44% (based on Meta Knight '07)
Ryu - 27.33% (based on Meta Knight '07)
Crono - 23.74% (based on Frank West '07)
Ammy - 16.64% (based on Frank West '07)

Those MK-based numbers look pretty decent, but clearly Frank West vastly underperformed in that awful fourpack last season, because there's no way I'm accepting Ammy that far beneath the fodder line. Anyways, Crono > Ryu > Ammy might as well be set in stone but the question everyone needs answered is, which of those gaps does L fall into? Now, I've been talking for a while about how the joke characters might be weakening before our eyes, while at the same time the favorites seem to be returning to a more normal level of strength. The "evidence" is that despite the Block looking fantastic, WCC was weaker, Sandbag was weaker yet, Hogger was pathetic (just a little LESS pathetic than those other two!), and other character with potential "joke" appeal like Jinjo and the Sackboy have instead fallen on their faces. Also, there seems to be a definite resurgence for Chrono Trigger this season, which ought to give Crono fans a bit of hope. Unfortunately, there's still plenty standing in the way of an L-Block elimination here:

- yes, the Block was under 32%, but let's not forget that the Dog was sucking up another 14% of that vote. jokes may be weakening, but they would need to weaken by light years versus R1 in order for this upset to have any chance
- Ammy's not a pushover anymore... with her strong Wii sales for the Okami remake she ought to appeal to plenty of new Nintendo fans here, especially as none of these other options have had a real Nintendo release since the SNES. if this were a three way, Ryu would only need to avoid getting killed by Crono and he'd have a good shot at outlasting L's static 30%ish fanbase, but with the wolf not rolling over and surrendering her small percent of the legit votes, a win becomes nearly impossible
- Capcom SFF between Ryu and Ammy? it sounds ridiculous, but then again we said the same thing about Dante/Leon and look where that got us. in any case its only one more case against Ryu, when he'd need a good dozen points in his favor before anyone would consider backing him

Oh wait, forgot to mention Mudkip's major collapse! After what we saw in 2007 I thought he would have had a much more static, joke-supported fanbase, and instead he fell apart. So yeah, there are reasons to bet against a Block win in this one, but I'm not going to jinx it by picking it myself. Taking the Block for the win, but will be rooting my face off for Crono and Ryu all day! Let's throw those points in the pot and see what we get after a little stirring.

L-Block - 29.58%
Crono - 29.54%
Ryu (Street Fighter) - 25.01%
Amaterasu - 15.87%

That looks... awful. Come on voters, win back my respect- drop that Block like it's hot!

Ngamer Says: L-Block > Crono

Guest’s Analysis - Luster Soldier

First round performance

Crono - 1st place with 49.22%
Amaterasu - 2nd place with 26.56%
Failed advances - Frank West (3rd place with 16.17%) and Kaim Argonar (4th place with 8.05%)

L-Block - 1st place with 31.81%
Ryu - 2nd place with 31.57%
Failed advances - Meta Knight (3rd place with 22.61%) and The Dog (4th place with 14.01%)

Now onto the actual match...

Behold, Mr. Consistent (aka L-Block). L-Block holds a unique characteristic of being able to get around the same percentage in each match he's in, despite more challenging opponents thrown at him. In all of L-Block's matches, he got between 28% and 35%.

Last round, L-Block shocked us all by showing that he still had muscle left in him from the final match last year. L-Block got off to an early lead but Ryu ripped through his lead overnight. Then in the day, L-Block did something that few expected. L-Block was able to smash through Ryu's lead of 622 votes in just 3 1/2 hours, build up his own lead of 447 votes, and finish ahead of Ryu by 335 votes. This was all done despite The Dog possibly leeching votes from L-Block and sets up L-Block to look good in the second round. Without The Dog in this match, L-Block will not be leeched of any votes. If you were one of the people who thought The Dog was holding L-Block back, this shall not happen in this match and L-Block is free to show off his real strength that may have otherwise been hidden last round because of The Dog. I could see L-Block giving Crono a scare in the Power Hour, but Crono should regain the lead after that.

Crono is first on the list of L-Block's opponents. Though Crono disappointed us by failing to break 50% in his match, he's still too strong for L-Block to beat. Crono will also be hurt by the old-school vote, since Chrono Trigger (Crono) and Street Fighter II (Ryu) are deeply rooted into the SNES fanbase. Then there's the upcoming Chrono Trigger remake for the DS, which will not be out by the time this match occurs. It probably will not even boost Crono at all, given the past performance of past CT characters this contest. So Crono should easily take first while L-Block gets second.

Ryu barely lost to L-Block last round and with the old-school vote, he'll look worse this time. Crono should rob some of his support. Ryu is also Capcom and so is Amaterasu, which means Ryu must also deal with Capcom SFF. Between the old-school vote and Capcom SFF, Ryu is not even a threat to L-Block anymore. Ryu should get 3rd place.

Amaterasu is at the end of the pack. While she looked great in the first round against Crono, she's weaker than Ryu and will be hurt by SFF. Amaterasu may be from a cult game, but when you have two characters owned by the same company, expect some straight up company SFF, at least to some degree. I probably would not be calling for SFF between Amaterasu and Ryu if it wasn't for the Wii release of Okami, as that made the game more accessible to other gamers. She is also quite unlucky and has to go up against a defending contest champion. She will finish in 4th place.

Luster Soldier's prediction: Amaterasu - 13.18%, Crono - 32.01%, L-Block - 30.22%, Ryu - 24.59%

Crew Consensus: We've given up, L > Crono is the majority.

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/25/2008 8:59:29 PM | message detail | #168 | filter

Crud, knew I went too low with the block.

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/25/2008 9:00:22 PM | message detail | #169 | filter

NEVER GIVE UP
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CB7 Score: 128/168
http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/Saturn.gif

-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/25/2008 9:00:42 PM | message detail | #170 | filter

Crew Consensus: We've given up, L > Crono is the majority.

Wow, didn't expect that. At least I would be the only one earning points in the "Crew Prediction Challenge" if I call this correctly.
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Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Time for more Block. L-Block's match last round was something, it not only beat Meta Knight, but had no problems with Ryu either. It wasn't the Link killer performance we saw in the finals last year, but it proved that voters weren't 'over' the joke. But there's a big difference between beating Ryu and beating Crono. It's a sure bet that the two advancing today are Crono and Block, but in what order is the question.

I'm siding with Crono on this one. I don't think Block is going to pick up the same kinda steam it did last year, where it got more and more voters on its side as it kept winning. I think after last year L-Block is more of a known quantity - people know what it can do, and are either voting for it or against it. I figured that'd be the case pre-contest, which is why I never considered Meta Knight a real threat. Meta Knight may have been somewhat impressive last year, but Block wasn't going to go from beating Link to lose to a middle tier Nintendo character. But I didn't expect its strength would be as high as Ryu.

Block pickers do have some reason to take him here, though. As much as I believe we're going to see a more 'static' Block this year, arguing that after last year is hard. If you believe he'll pick up steam like last year, taking him here is easy. It helps that there's not another "joke character" to steal any of its votes like in round 1 with the Dog. With Crono and crew being unimpressive lately, Crono is probably one of the least threatening Noble Niners we've got, too.

As far as Ryu goes, I'd like to see him knock the Block out, but it won't happen. He lost last round with nothing hold him back. He's got no reason to gain anything significant with this group (if anything, Amaterasu would be a bigger hindrance for him than his competition in round 1 - woo capcom sff).

let's see how this goes back to mother 3

Prediction: Crono - 34% ; L-Block - 31% ; Ryu SF - 21% ; Amaterasu - 14%
Vote: Crono

DpObliVion | Posted 10/25/2008 9:01:39 PM | message detail | #172 | filter

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

ZFS | Posted 10/25/2008 9:01:43 PM | message detail | #173 | filter

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

DpObliVion | Posted 10/25/2008 9:02:07 PM | message detail | #174 | filter

From: KleenexTissue50 | Posted: 10/25/2008 11:00:22 PM | Message Detail
NEVER GIVE UP

DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

Expected loss of points today, expected loss of points tomorrow. I suppose it's better when you've given up hope before the match even begins....

L-Block needs to die, but apparently the joke is still funny and people aren't ready to let it die yet. It showed that by narrowly defeating the very strong Ryu in the first round, even with The Dog arguably taking a good portion of the joke votes.

When it comes to the fight between L-Block and Ryu in the second round match, I think the situation favors L-Block even more this time around, so Ryu's gonna be sent home, along with Amaterasu.

I can only hope for the sake of the contest that Crono at least stays ahead of L-Block....

Dp's bracket says: Crono > Ryu

Dp's prediction is: Crono > L-Block

Crono - 33%
L-Block - 30%
Ryu - 23%
Amaterasu - 14%

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

KamikazePotato | Posted 10/25/2008 9:03:43 PM | message detail | #175 | filter

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tapzwyMgziE&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2M90qh5gocg

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/25/2008 9:04:25 PM | message detail | #176 | filter

ALL HAIL DP
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CB7 Score: 128/168
http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/Saturn.gif

DpObliVion | Posted 10/25/2008 9:06:42 PM | message detail | #177 | filter

Moltar's analysis > all. This match doesn't deserve a thoughtful analysis.

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/25/2008 9:16:10 PM | message detail | #178 | filter

(if anything, Amaterasu would be a bigger hindrance for him than his competition in round 1 - woo capcom sff).

Glad to know that I'm not the only one who saw the Capcom SFF here. Also, just read HM's analysis and he picked the Crono > L-Block outcome I had chosen.
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Lopen | Posted 10/25/2008 9:56:51 PM | message detail | #179 | filter

Ammy/Ryu SFF give me a break.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/25/2008 9:57:39 PM | message detail | #180 | filter

More like Crono/L-Block SFF.
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CB7 Score: 128/168
http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg

ZFS | Posted 10/25/2008 10:24:52 PM | message detail | #181 | filter

it could be worse we could be talking about joke sff

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try to imagine a thing called a B button

Ngamer64 | Posted 10/25/2008 10:26:37 PM | message detail | #182 | filter

I'd very happily lose those points to Luster and HM here!

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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/25/2008 11:06:07 PM | message detail | #183 | filter

Ammy/Ryu SFF give me a break.

What proof do you have against that?
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DpObliVion | Posted 10/25/2008 11:06:51 PM | message detail | #184 | filter

GO CRONO!

NEVER GIVE UP!

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

Lopen | Posted 10/25/2008 11:09:01 PM | message detail | #185 | filter

Common sense?

Not one of your strong suits, obviously. But how many people have you heard say "GEE I'M A HUGE CAPCOM FAN"

Same fanbase factor. Ryu and Amaterasu couldn't be more different. Their games aren't from the same genre or the same era. Square has it because they specialize in RPGs (but it's not even that large there), Nintendo has it because their characters all mesh into each other's games.

No reason for Ammy/Ryu to have any SFF.
---
Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/25/2008 11:09:48 PM | message detail | #186 | filter

But how many people have you heard say "GEE I'M A HUGE CAPCOM FAN"

SHINE

<_<
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CB7 Score: 132/176
http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg

Lopen | Posted 10/25/2008 11:12:22 PM | message detail | #187 | filter

SHINE is not a person.
---
Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe

satai_delenn | Posted 10/26/2008 12:44:54 AM | message detail | #188 | filter

Never give up, never surrender!

Go Crono go!
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Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE!

_Harmonica_ | Posted 10/26/2008 3:55:29 AM | message detail | #189 | filter

Just as planned.

CORNO is going down next round.

Vincent Valentine..........40.05% 52084
Falco Lombardi.............16.53% 21492
Scorpion.........................18.94% 24631
Gordon Freeman..........24.49% 31845
TOTAL VOTES..........................130052

What Happened - Vincent breaks 40% and Gordon ends up taking second place easily. Scorpion and Falco never really stood a chance once Gordon broke away from them early.

Why it Happened - Vincent shows that none of these guys are that strong, really. Falco overperformed in R1, I guess, because of the competition. Scorpion looks to have dropped from last year. Gordon looks to have been hurt by Big Daddy last round, or he just has the most dedicated fanbase.

What Will Happen - Samus/Ganon/Vincent/Gordon...even with Ganon there, I think Samus will still win over Vincent.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay Lopen and Guest!

Yoblazer - 27
Ngamer - 25
HM - 24
Tran - 23
Moltar - 22
Guest - 21
Lopen - 21

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Tran gets the point for Vincent and Falco, Soul gets the point for Gordon, and Molt, HM and Yo get points for Scorpion

Yoblazer - 29
Tran - 28
Ngamer - 27
HM - 27
Moltar - 25
Guest (War, KP (2), Dp, Justin, greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai, Klennex, Luis (2), Scott, Soul (2), Leon, Ed) - 18
Lopen - 17
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Moltar Status: augh
Crono/Ammy/L/Ryu - Bracket: Crono > Ryu - Vote: Ammy (125/176)

gamer88coool | Posted 10/26/2008 1:28:44 PM | message detail | #191 | filter

If anybody wants to enter:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=46191124
Represent the crew and win!

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Whoever posts below me is a fruitcake.
People who agree:93,348,874

XxSoulxX | Posted 10/26/2008 4:17:47 PM | message detail | #192 | filter

Rock on Lopen!
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Good Times,
Great Memories

DpObliVion | Posted 10/26/2008 4:21:50 PM | message detail | #193 | filter

Once again happy to get half-points. You're damn right you're only in second, L-Block.

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

ZFS | Posted 10/26/2008 5:55:59 PM | message detail | #194 | filter

nice job luster

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DpObliVion | Posted 10/26/2008 7:20:53 PM | message detail | #195 | filter

I still don't see much end in sight for L-Block though.

Nobody in tomorrow's match is gonna take 2nd from the block next round. Then when Samus joins the match, Crono is gonna SFF with Vincent to push the block through. Then he joins Link, the mother of SFF....

Ugh, I originally had L-Block all the way into the finals for a 2nd place finish, why did I change it to him not even making it out of Round 1....

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/26/2008 8:46:33 PM | message detail | #196 | filter

Then when Samus joins the match, Crono is gonna SFF with Vincent to push the block through.

Unlike the Ryu/Amaterasu SFF I had proposed earlier, at least a case could be made with SFF between Crono/Vincent. Both are RPG characters and both are Square.
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Division 4: Round 2 - Match 40 – Alucard vs. Captain Falcon vs. Pikachu vs. Arthas Menethil

Moltar’s Analysis

Alucard
Round 1 - 35.54% vs. Falcon, Diddy and Kratos

Alucard unable to separate himself too much from the Nintendo orgy below

Falcon
Round 1 - 28.39% vs. Alucard, Diddy and Kratos

Falcon? Really? Man, this guy hid his strength well before.

Pikachu
Round 1 - 32.15% vs. Arthas, Ike and Spy

That’s actually pretty decent considering Ike was there.

Arthas
Round 1 - 26.69% vs. Pikachu, Ike and Spy

blizzard character quick go rally

Well, Round 1 kind of changed the landscape for this match. Most were expecting Diddy to be here instead of Falcon, but that isn’t the case. Apparently in between the time he was getting tripled by Crono and destroyed by Fox and Wario, he was secretly biding his time waiting to FALCON PUNCH our brackets into ruin.

But seriously, there is an explanation for Falcon, and it’s that last year, his Smash support was eaten by Fox. I mean, Star Fox > F-Zero, and Fox was huge in Melee, so it isn’t impossible to think Smash voters and series voters flocked to Fox. However, Falcon had no one stealing his support from above this year, which is why he looked good. I guess his Internet popularity had something to do with it too (seriously, this guy is a pretty popular casual pick since his internet cred went up).

But anyway, Falcon runs into a problem here, and its name is Pikachu. If Fox could steal Smash support from Falcon, I’m guessing Pikachu will be able to as well. And then there’s the fact that Pokemon is much stronger than F-Zero, and Falcon’s time in the light may be over.

But what about the A characters? Alucard didn’t look great in Round 1, but he’s facing another Nintendo-riddled pack and Arthas. While this pack is stronger, Alucard shouldn’t be hurt too much.

One big factor to take into consideration is Arthas. On one hand, after struggling to beat Ike, who was trounced by Duke and Gordon a year ago, he isn’t THAT strong. On the other hand, Arthas has Blizzard fanboys on his side, which could give him a boost again here.

Anyway, Ike crippled Pikachu last round, and I don’t think Falcon will do the same here. Pikachu takes first by a bit. Arthas (+ rally peeps) and Alucard battle it out for second. I have a feeling Arthas will take it thanks (but no thanks) to the fanboys, but I’ll give Alucard the benefit of the doubt. The top three should be pretty close in all, and could go any way.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Pikachu > Alucard

Moltar’s Prediction is: Pikachu: 30% - Alucard: 25% - Arthas: 24% - Falcon: 19%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

What a match. I figured this match would have been an easy pick, but after Falcon's crazy showing last round and Arthas barely slipping by, I'm not sure what to expect out of this. My bracket says Alucard > Pikachu - and it's what I'm banking on happening today - but I could see all kinds of combinations here. It wouldn't surprise me if Pikachu wins, or if Captain Falcon does something crazy and advances. Alucard could end up getting the short end of the stick here, too - who knows with this match.

Alucard in first is probably the popular pick. He's got the least in common with any of his opponents and he's got some decent strength to him. He didn't do as well as I would have expected (thanks to Falcon) last round, but if there's a good bet in this match, it's for Alucard to advance, be it in first or second. We've seen him in these types of matches before, and he does well enough.

Second place is a bit more up in the air. I went back and forth for a while between Pikachu and Arthas, but I figured that banking on Arthas to be worth enough to get by Pikachu was too risky. After seeing him barely able to handle Ike in round 1, I'm feeling good about that decision. I'm not too worried about any sort of 'rallying' here either. That's just something that happens with Blizzard character, and it won't save them when they're not close -- and Arthas should end up a few thousand behind by the end of this match.

The wildcard here is Falcon. I've got him coming in last due to Pikachu...but I figured the same thing would have been true last round against Diddy Kong. Trying to predict him here is tough - he could put up another round 1 showing, get hit with SFF against Pikachu, or just do about as expected. I figure he'll do well for himself (he won't be in the teens), but not enough to avoid last place.

Prediction: Alucard - 27% ; Pikachu - 27% ; Arthas - 24% ; Captain Falcon - 24%
Vote: Captain Falcon

Yoblazer’s Analysis

Yeah, take your pick. The possibilities are so broad for this battle between Alucard, Captain Falcon, Pikachu, and Arthas Menethil that it would be fair to call it the toughest damned match of the round. Considering some of the doozies we've already seen and the ones we have coming up, that's quite a statement, but these four earned it. I can... I can honestly envision almost anything here. I can imagine Alucard taking advantage of yet another Nintendo fanbase split and letting it propel him to victory. I can imagine Pikachu winning by means of stealing the Captain Falcon Smash support. I can even see Arthas winning due to increased Lich King hype and even more Blizzard rallying. Really, the only thing I can't realistically see is Falcon finishing on top; now watch as C-Money makes Pikachu look worse than Diddy Kong just to shut me up.

Just how do you analyze a match that's this unpredictable? It's tough, but let's work with what we got, starting with Arthas. For all the hype he's picked up recently, I'm going to side against him. In Round 1, Arthas had every chip in his corner. He was up against a very favorable Nintendo split and a weak fourth entrant, was blessed with an amazing picture, and received a pretty consistent stream of rally support. Despite these advantages, he barely got past Ike, winning by 1,000 votes and less than one percent. Making matters worse, he also finished pretty far behind Pikachu. I doubt a similar performance will be enough to get Arthas through, and he may have to look toward his Nintendo competitors for some unintended support.

Pikachu may have a good track record in this format, but that doesn't mean Captain Falcon won't hinder him. Last time, the combination of Pikachu + Ike grabbed an impressive 58% of the vote. I really doubt the Nintendo duo will do anything similar this time around. Spy has been replaced by a much stronger entrant in Alucard, and I don't think Captain Falcon is quite as equipped for percentage domination as Ike. Unlike the Fire Emblem star, Falcon honestly doesn't have a damn thing outside his Smash support. Sure, it was good enough to kill Diddy Kong, but Pikachu is a proven character who has starred in just as many Smash games as C. Falc. Thus, the fanbase overlap with Falcon will likely be greater than the one Pikachu had with Ike. This being the case, I don't think the Pikachu + Falcon combination can even manage 50% of the vote.

What does this mean? It means that if Falcon defies the odds (again) and stalemates Pikachu, things will look much better for Arthas. However, I don't see that happening. Like I said, while Falcon may be beloved by much of the Smash fanbase, he brings nothing else to the table. Pikachu does, and that alone should be enough to give him the lion's share of Nintendo support. If Arthas finished 5.5% behind Pikachu last time despite a fanbase split, it's tough to imagine the Lich King overtaking the damned rat this time around.

And that leaves us with Alucard. Like the other three, Dracula Backwards can finish anywhere. I think he looks generally safe to at least finish ahead of Falcon (ratface should help there), and I'm betting he still packs enough intrinsic strength to beat Arthas. The battle between Alucard and Pikachu is a true coin flip, though. Faced with such a decision, anyone who knows me knows whom I'd support (and whom I wouldn't).

Plan time, Alucard!

Alucard - 28%
Captain Falcon - 21%
Pikachu - 27%
Arthas Menethil - 24%

Lopen’s Analysis

This match could basically go any way I wouldn't be too surprised. Doesn't help that Alucard/Falcon's match last round is to this date the most confusing result of the contest to me. But I'll give my best shot at making an accurate prediction here.

Alright, so the first thing I've gotta tackle is interpreting what happened in Falcon/Alucard last round. Okay, so personally, I'm thinkin that Captain Falcon, Kratos Aurion, and Diddy all had a Nintendo fanbase overlap or somethin. Now, I've said time and time again that this probably won't hurt Nintendo characters that much. But when your fanbase is as limited in the land of Nintendo as Falcon's is, it probably does hurt. Falcon's probably stronger in this o-- whoa, a Pikachu.

Well, never mind that. Pikachu probably hurts Falcon as much or more than those guys ever did. Pikachu, on the other hand, I think doesn't get weakened much... he's got a more broad-sweeping appeal than Falcon. And even if he does, we already saw him get hurt last round against Ike, which is as much damage as Falcon is likely to do. Arthas > Pikachu (or Falcon) is probably the result that's the toughest for me to envision out of the possibilities... But who knows... maybe that Falcon Punch fad made him somewhat strong in this.

Alucard... well, I think that was about his swan song last round. He's not getting any younger, and letting Falcon who might've been hurt by Kratos and Diddy get at all close to you is just sad. I don't think Alucard has it in him anymore to be a huge force in these things. Arthas's proportion to Ike impressed me more, and so I've gotta take him for second here, especially considering that when at risk, Arthas will get rallied to the hills. Not exaggerating when I say I can see any combination in this advancing.

Lopen's prediction:
Pikachu – 29.65%
Arthas – 25.95%
Alucard – 24.99%
Captain Falcon – 20.41%

Transience’s Analysis

by the time people read this, I'll be on a plane to Europe. hopefully I don't miss too much, and hopefully I can find time to send these things in!

tonight's match is really awkward. I just don't like any of these picks. Alucard didn't look all that great to me, Pikachu seems to have gone from a Dante-killer to an average Nintendo character (which is better than Ike), Falcon is who the hell knows and Arthas.. is so unpredictable. coming into this match, you had to look at Alucard as the favourite, especially if Ike advanced. he's unique and has had decent strength over the years, even if it's declined a lot in the last five years. Alucard did as expected, but Kratos and Diddy absolutely bombed, meaning that Alucard could well have lost to Captain Falcon if this was a one-on-one match. that's just no good.

the question for Pikachu: who does he overlap with more, Falcon or Ike? and who's stronger, Falcon or Ike? I'd say he overlaps more with Falcon - SSB, Melee - but that Ike is stronger. overall I'd say it's about a push and Pikachu probably gets his 30% again. I think that might be good enough for first place. Falcon is probably in last.

the big question mark is Arthas. he's got his face picture that served him well last year, the hype for him is building, and most importantly he's the most independent character here. he can also go and get votes by the hundreds thanks to rallying. when Alucard starts dying in the daytime and Arthas is rallying like hell, this could get ugly. reallllly ugly.

Ecclesia boost!
Alucard to beat Arthas!
what am I saying

transience's prediction:

Pikachu with 31.31%
Arthas with 25.55%
Alucard with 24.13%
Captain Falcon with 19.01%

Ngamer’s Analysis

Okay, so, this was the match where us Gurus almost unanimously agreed that L-Block would be meeting his maker. But... it didn't happen, and in fact, it happening was never even a real possibility, so by all rights I ought to be distressed. And yet... L-Block finally lost to someone, and its got me all smiles! Not only did he lose, he only won a single 15 minute update against Crono (at about 7:30 this morning) while Ryu has already topped the Block in 7 updates and could very well be scoring more before this match concludes, as he's sporting a darn impressive SNV right now. On the down side, L gains a major advantage in the next debatable match where Crono and Vincent will most likely be Square-SFFing each other. But on the plus side the idea of his having a completely static joke vote has been shattered just like it was for Mudkip early this round. Also, the trend of jokes weakening continues unabated... perhaps it will keep up, to put Crono far enough ahead to outlast him in R4? *crosses fingers*

Yeah, that was a fun result, and I'm thinking we'll be seeing yet another here tonight! Let's take a closer look at these four goofballs.

X-Stats From Round One
Alucard - 27.70% (based on '07 Kratos)
Falcon - 24.60% (based on '07 Kratos)
Pikachu - 21.85% (based on '07 Ike)
Arthas - 19.82% (based on '07 Ike)

Eh, I trust those Alucard/Falcon numbers about as far as I can spit (which isn't very far). It was clear that Kratos was hampered by having so many Nintendo options in his R1 poll and didn't match his '07 standard as a result. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Pika and the Lich King appear to have been way underrated, but with the way Ike and Pika must have been ruining each other in that match no number coming out of that match was going to be very reliable.

Now then, experience tells us that, at least based on all we've seen this year, when Nintendo LFF gets involved things quickly turn nasty, and you should bet on the non-Nintendo options wherever possible. And yet, look at that R1 result- even with Pika and Ike murdering each other, Pika still took first place with ease, and furthermore Ike came only a little bit short of pushing past Arthas and advancing himself. Today we replace Ike with Captain Falcon, a guy who is sure to be higher on the Nintendo totem poll... I mean, he has to be, right? He's made it into all three SSBs, was a favorite of both casual and tourney players in the first two, has some memes to his credit, and some minimal F-Zero support to fall back on if all else fails. All that Ike can counter with is swinging around a gigantic sword.

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