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Character Battle VII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

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Marth.................23.16% 30755
Duke Nukem...31.07% 41268
Altair.....................30.5% 40504
Lucario..............15.28% 20288
TOTAL VOTES.............132815

What Happened - Well now...Duke takes first place, and while Altair was able to make a great comeback attempt, he ends up in second. Lucario ends up crippling Marth big time making the battle for second not even close..

Why it Happened - Well, it's not hard to fathon why Marth did much worse, and Altair doesn't look as good here with a fourpack that isn't all fodder. Still...Duke got the perfect bracket placement this time around. It turns out he's a pretty decent low-midcarder.

What Will Happen - Link/Zack/Duke/Altair...looks like Duke's little run may come to an end.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay Yo!

Yoblazer - 25
Ngamer - 23
Tran - 22
HM - 21
Moltar - 20
Guest - 18
Lopen - 17

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Yo gets the point for Duke, Tran gets the point for Altair, Moltar gets the point for Marth, and Lucario falls perfectly in between Moltar and Ngamer

Ngamer - 27
Yoblazer - 27
Moltar - 24
HM - 23
Tran - 23
Lopen - 15
Guest (War, KP (2), Dp, Justin, greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai, Klennex, Luis, Scott, Soul) - 14
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Moltar Status: augh
Luigi/Liquid/Bowser/Phoenix - Bracket: Luigi > Bowser - Vote: Liquid (103/144)

DpObliVion | Posted 10/22/2008 2:56:45 PM | message detail | #102 | filter

Yeah, I don't know what I was thinking when I put Bowser ahead of Luigi in my bracket. Got Liquid in first though, should've gotten full points for this match if I wasn't stupid for 2nd place. I'm content with half-credit on this match though, did not expect full, was worried I'd get quarter-credit.

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

Chaotic Mind | Posted 10/22/2008 3:43:22 PM | message detail | #103 | filter

I had Bowser>Liquid... man do i feel stupid. Why are people voting Suckigi over Bowser, why? At least i'll get quarter credit though, and next round i should get full points for Mario>X, unless t3h mudkipz ****s everything up.
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Proud member of the A1 Steak Sauce Guild

gamer88coool | Posted 10/22/2008 4:56:09 PM | message detail | #104 | filter

so i herd u liek mudkUPSET

Division 2: Round 2 - Match 36 – Mario vs. Zelda vs. Mega Man X vs. Mudkip

Moltar’s Analysis

Mario
Round 1 - 40.47% vs. Zelda, Knuckles and Fei

Mario struggles a bit with Zelda and Knux

Zelda
Round 1 - 24.58% vs. Mario, Knuckles and Fei

Zelda avoids major SFF to take second

MMX
Round 1 - 44.50% vs. Mudkip, Lloyd and Tom

MMX looks to be strong, but not quite Mega Man strong

Mudkip
Round 1 - 30.26% vs. MMX, Lloyd and Tom

well then

With JokeFAQs in full force, I’m almost tempted to just go “kip wins gg everyone else”. Still, this is the first time a “joke” character has to take on two very strong opponents in Mario and MMX. And yes, I realize Mudkip is actually semi-legit since it’s a Pokemon but dammit it’s some random starter pokemon that’s only popular because of a fad so it’s a joke in my eyes.

By the way, the only thing certain here is that Zelda takes last. Shame she ends up losing to a joke fad Pokemon yet again.

Anyway, Mario looked pretty darn bad in his match. He failed to get any big SFF against Zelda (may just be that Mario series can’t SFF Zelda series well), and now he’s got the very strong MMX and the strongly-backed Mudkip.

Mudkip is going to hold up very well, as much as I hate to admit it. Still, Mudkip failed to beat Ganondorf and Luigi last year, so Mario and MMX should be a hurdle too big for it to jump. mudkip down now the rest shall fall soon.

So it’s going to be Mario or MMX in a game of “Who collapses due to SFF”. We’ve seen SFF between Mario characters and MM characters before (though Yoshi held up well last year, but I think that was more because of his fan-favorite status). Since Mario > MM, and it’s likely that MM > MMX, I’m going to guess X falls here.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Mario > MMX

Moltar’s Prediction is: Mario: 35% - MMX: 27% - Mudkip: 25% - Zelda: 13%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Interesting match today. I've seen some people down on the Mario crew after Luigi and Bowser's loss to Liquid, and Mario's less than stellar showing last round -- to be fair, none of the Noble Nine impressed in round 1. Today should be a good opportunity for Mario to make up for his 'mere' 40% against Zelda and Knuckles.

This match is pretty much nothing but SFF -- it's essentially four Nintendo characters. X is the most independent (though maybe Mudkip has some claim to that...), but he's still firmly rooted within the Nintendo base. He'll be just as susceptible to SFF as you would expect Mega Man to be against Mario (hint: it wouldn't end well for the Blue Bomber). I've seen all sorts of combinations for this match ranging from X over Mario to Mudkip in first -- both that have about a zero chance of happening, by my count. Mario's gonna do better than people expect, I think, and Mudkip's not going to do as well as some are anticipating.

If there's anyone who needs to worry about advancing today, though, it'd be X. With Mario around, he's not going to fare too well. And when your percentage falls around the mid-20s, you're in dangerous territory against someone like 'kip. Still, it's hard for me to see X, who might as well be Mega Man, losing to a Mudkip kinda character. Yeah, Mudkip's legit, and had a rather impressive showing last round, but I can't see it advancing in this group. It's so Nintendo-centric that it's bound to be affected in some capacity. Even if Pokemon fans and joke voters hold those characters in 'top tier' regard, it's dealing with stiff competition.

As far as Zelda's concerned, I don't expect much from her, but she continues to surprise me with how well she holds up. I expected Mario to brutalize her last round -- who votes for Zelda with Mario in the poll (damn you gamefaqs)? -- but it didn't happen. I'm aiming low for her again in an all-Nintendo set, but if she holds up well again it wouldn't shock me. If she can get high-teens to low-twenties, I'll have some new respect for her.

Should be a relatively normal match -- Mario takes an easy first, X in second. After seeing the pic I'm more confident in that than before, too, because damn Mario looks awesome and hey he's awesome in Brawl

suck it de-boost and tierz

Prediction: Mario - 38% ; X - 27% ; Mudkip - 23% ; Zelda - 12%
Vote: Mario

Yoblazer’s Analysis

Hoooooooo boy, don't even get me started on this one. There's enough information, speculation, and SFF between these four for a wordy hack like me to fill up two posts. Well, I've got some Fable II to get to, so let's make it two paragraphs instead!! *resounding cheers from the crowd*

Mario, Zelda, Mega Man X, and Mudkip. This contest is now looking more unpredictable than ever, but Mario should still win this match easily. Even if Mudkip stays horrifyingly static, I don't think he'll approach the plumber. Mario is just too strong and had an alright showing in Round 1 (better than all the other Nintendo characters who bombed, but maybe that's cuz he was also up against Nintendo characters lolol that company is so dead). Zelda also did a good job last round, but she still let Mario hit 62% on her, so it's not as though she lit the world on fire. She's now up against significantly tougher competition and she'll be heading into battle with a junk picture, so I expect the regal Hylian princess to be today's big loser.

Oh great, I've started a third paragraph. Sigh... such a loser. Anyway, the big question mark is undoubtedly Mudkip, and the big question is whether he'll be strong/static enough to upend Mega Man X, who defeated him easily in the first round. I'm here to tell you NO. Yes, I understand that joke characters are looking even crazier this year and that Mudkip put up 30% a few weeks ago... but he still lost by a huge 15%. He's going to have to pull an L-Block (thereby making X his Kirby) if he wants to make some noise here, and he certainly didn't show L-Block magic last year. If Mudkip couldn't crack Ganondorf and Luigi, it'll take something big to land between a Noble 9 monster and a guy who might have Noble 9 potential. I just don't see it happening. As for X himself, I expect him to look pretty good in relation to Mario. Sure, the guy is probably also seen as a Nintendo entity, but I bet he'll have a smaller overlap with Zelda and the Pokemon than Mario will, and his picture looks really, really awesome. I still can't imagine him losing a direct match to OG Mega Man, not with a picture like that, but that's another story. Fable time!

Mario - 34%
Zelda - 16%
Mega Man X - 28%
Mudkip - 22%

Lopen’s Analysis

Hey, Mega Man and Mario face off at long last... sort of, anyway. But before I get that, I have some Mudkipz upsets to step on:

Now, I think that my R1 write-up for Mudkip should be basically a supplement to this. Basically what I said is I don't think Mudkip is primarily a joke entrant. To me, at least, he seems to have a lot of real fans... I've met many tykes that love the Mudkipz. To me, he seems the most popular post GSC Pokemon, by far. Now, I don't doubt that he's got a joke backing too, but to me the guy seems mostly legit. He's even got legit trends after the first hour or two when 4chan stops votestuffing him. Not a joke character.

So when people have him being humored to place here, I can't help but disagree. He might get some "static backing," but it isn't nearly as strong as he needs to deal damage. I'd like to think he's probably about as strong as Bidoof from his joke votes, at best... because while the Bidoof joke is less widespread, Bidoof has some legit votes to make up for that, too. Basically what I'm saying is, though I think he's got a joke floor, it's going to be somewhere around 17-18% or so... much too low for his normal strength to make up.

Now back to Mario vs Mega Man X. This'll be something to watch. How well Mega Man X does here will play a big part in how next round's match is looking. Mega Man X needs to keep it close to have a chance to upset Mario next round... if he falls too far behind, Liquid might sneak in. And if Zelda/Mudkip get really close to Mario/MMX, you might want to call for something crazy like Liquid > MMX next round since that implies bad interactions between Mario and MMX (of course Mario will get the butt-end of Luigi regardless). Haha, that'd be wicked.

I'm thinking MMX keeps it at least kinda close, here. Within 6%, meaning MMX basically pulls a Liquid next round. Much more and Mario's probably out of his range. Don't be fooled though, MMX does not necessarily NEED Luigi and Bowser to be there to overcome Mario... and in fact if they were both there, I'd consider MMX > Luigi next round (hell I'm vaguely considering it right now.. if Luigi can swing the amount he did vs Bowser against Mario, it might get interesting) Anyway, he just has to not be buried this round.

Lopen's prediction:
Mario - 33.01%
Mega Man X - 27.70%
Mudkip - 21.23%
Zelda - 18.06%

Transience’s Analysis

the day the bracket was released, I was hyping Mudkip. "if Mario beats MMX down, Mudkip advances. no doubt about it. and after that, we've got Luigi/Bowser/Mario/Mudkip -- oh god."

Bowser didn't stand up to his side of the deal, but it showed me something else that scares me -- Mario characters sucking this year.

Mario barely managed 40% in a poll with a second-tier Nintendo character he should have been able to beat to oblivion. Luigi looked bad this year, and that's to say nothing of Bowser's final fall from grace today. (seriously, he lost the lead to Phoenix Wright.) Yoshi got hammered by Squall. Wario's tough to judge, but getting rocked like that by Zack can't be too encouraging.

is Mario in trouble? most likely not, but I'd expect Zelda to hurt him more than MMX will. Mudkip is also Nintendo to those weird Pokemon fans who genuinely prefer him/it. if that's the case, there's a chance MMX takes first -- he's Nintendo too, but not nearly as much as the others.

then there's Mudkip, who seems like a good 25-30%. if Zelda doesn't collapse here - and who knows with that picture, but I wouldn't count on it - Mudkip could even place first. pretty crazy talk, but possible. I feel like there's a very small chance that Mario doesn't even qualify. THAT would be something to see. I'd throw my Mario-in-the-finals bracket out to see that.

I guess the main question here is how does Mudkip hold up. last year, in a Nintendo-heavy pack, Mudkip got 28%, and in the Ganon/Luigi match he got 25%. this year, in a pack with MMX - arguably as strong as last year's pack - he moved up to 30%. this pack he's about to face is the strongest one yet, but that's also the scariest for the "real" characters because Mudkip's not gonna be affected by stronger characters in the poll too much. I think the 'kip's good for 26%. is that enough? it depends on how high Mario and MMX can go. this thing is a tossup and I won't claim to know what happens. if it's close, though? 4chan's got this one in the bag.

Mudkip, the worst joke
will still get one fourth the votes
sucks for MMX

transience's prediction:

Mario with 32%
Mudkip with 27%
Mega Man X with 26%
Zelda with 15%

Ngamer’s Analysis

Ugh, dang it all Phoenix. You fold to 11% against Mario and Big Boss, yet pull down 19% against Liquid and Luigi/Bowser? Worse yet he ruins both my Oracle and my bracket; I really think Mr. L could have competed for the win here if this triple Nintendo LFF had only been a double. Oh well, at least we won't have to sit through another embarrassing performance from Nintendo tonight... though that's only the case because there are no non-Nintendo options in the bunch!

Originally I had this one chalked up as an easy advancement for Mario and MMX, but in the end I decided to move Zelda into this grouping instead of Knuckles, at which point I realized... uh oh, the Kipper just might joke himself into contention! Let's try to figure out how realistic that would be.

R1 Performance X-Stats
Mario - 40.25% (based on '07 Knuckles)
Zelda - 30.41% (based on '07 Knuckles)
Mega Man X - 36.78% (based on '07 Lloyd)
Mudkip - 29.77% (based on '07 Lloyd)

Just looking at those first two you're thinking whoa, not only will this be Mario's in a cakewalk, but Zelda might have a chance to slide by as well! And then you see how impressive MMX was also... and then heck, even Mudkip looked like a champ! In reality it seems pretty clear that all these numbers are too high- Knuckles was surely hit with some platforming LFF by Mario to weaken him from 2007, while it was rather obvious that Lloyd (like Kratos A) got stung pretty bad by having to deal with Nintendo competition here in '08. Regardless though, the gaps are large enough where the Nintendo food chain of Mario > MMX > Zelda with decent sized gaps in between shouldn't really be in question. The troubling thing is... where does Mudkip fall?

Well last season he had to compete with triple Nintendo in R1 and pulled down 28%. This year he had triple Nintendo in R1 and got... uh oh, 30%. But not to worry! Because in R2 last year he faced tougher Nintendo opponents and fell to... 25%. Crap! Considering Mudkip is apparently stronger this year, and considering that joke characters as a whole are certainly stronger this year, it doesn't seem impossible for Muddy to maintain that 24-25% he seems to like snatching up. And if THAT'S the case and Mario/Zelda keep the same ratio while X bombs and can only hang around with Zelda, then Mudkip is going to pull through easily! This is some serious trouble we're in folks... so why aren't I backing the upset? Two reasons:

1. Anti-favoriteFAQs. It shouldn't be as big a deal as it was in R1, but even so I think 95% of voters are going to consider Mario an easy choice for the win tonight and some will instead throw their vote to someone who might need it more- and I think that secondary choice will be X more often than not.

2. The pictures. Hey hey, thanks SB! Not only does Mudkip look sad and way too zoomed and not nearly as jokey-hilarious as last year, but MMX looks awesome and is sure to draw plenty of attention away from such a normal-looking Mario. But best of all, Zelda got Celda'd! I see this as strongly limiting her appeal, and the less appeal she's got the more legit votes there will be for X to eat up.

Come on fighting robot, you can do this yet! (Though I still think it could be too close for comfort!) I've stirred this pot and am bringing out...

Mario - 32.23%
Mega Man X - 25.65%
Mudkip - 24.25%
Zelda - 17.88%

Looks... dangerous! But that's my middle name.

Ngamer Says: Mario > MMX

Guest’s Analysis - Ed Bellis

Match 36: hello my name is MUD

What a match we’ve got here. Mario easily gets first, of course, but who takes the silver? We’ve got two solid competitors here, one the namesake of the most popular series on the site, the other potentially equal to a Noble Nine character.

Neither of them are getting second. Mudkip will do it.

Let’s take a look at some data. Mario is, apart from Link, the king of Nintendo SFF. I’ll debunk Mega Man X having a chance here, since his is the easiest. There’s been two solid instances that indicate a fanbase overlap between Nintendo and the Mega Man X series: Mario/Zero 2005 and Legend of Zelda/Mega Man X in the Series Contest. Mega Man Classic has also clearly been shown to be a Nintendo character in trends (see Mega Man/Yoshi 2005). I don’t care how strong X is; Mario is going to make him look like crap.

Zelda is a tougher story. She held up better against Mario last round than I would have given her credit for, but I don’t think the same will be said for her this time – with three other Nintendo-related characters in the poll, she’ll be losing a good bit of support, and with stiffer competition it’ll be hard to find fans who actively care about her. That said, I think she’ll still do pretty well.

Mudkip, on the other hand, is a whole different story. Mudkip almost won when there was a huge SFF split last year between Luigi and Ganondorf. This time the SFF should be just as, if not more, pronounced – and with the way joke characters (even CATS) have been overperforming this year, it’s an upset I’d bank on.

Then Mudkip rides the SFF Train to the semifinals. You heard it here first, folks!

Hail to the ‘kip, baby.

Prediction: SO LONG, GAY BOWSIE
Mario – 35%
Zelda – 22%
Mega Man X – 18%
Mudkip – 25%

Crew Consensus: Mario > X: 5, Mario > Mukdip: ted crunkensteinsience and the AUGHs II: curse of the black pearl

trannyscience | Posted 10/22/2008 9:07:16 PM | message detail | #110 | filter

oh god ted crunkensteinsience is doin' this

let's do this
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif

DpObliVion | Posted 10/22/2008 9:25:27 PM | message detail | #111 | filter

DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

Okay, so Mario doesn't crush Zelda with SFF as much as some would like....but Mega Man X will likely suffer at the hands of Mario as well, so that's not going to kill him. Mario will come in first with ease in this match. Zelda is gonna be screwed here, as Mega Man X is quite stronger than Knuckles, and Mudkip will take away much more from her than Fei Fong Wong.

That leaves Mudkip and Mega Man X to take 2nd place, and I just refuse to believe that ****ing Mudkip could challenge a Noble Niner-kinda in Mega Man X.

Dp's bracket says: Mario > Mega Man X

Dp's prediction is: Mario > Mega Man X

Confidence: 100%

Mario - 36%
Mega Man X - 27%
Mudkip - 21%
Zelda - 16%

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

Ed Bellis | Posted 10/22/2008 9:42:48 PM | message detail | #112 | filter

CRUNKENSTEINSIENCEFEAR
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This was KING BELLIS LOL
ed status: throw bees on everything

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/22/2008 9:53:49 PM | message detail | #113 | filter

mudkip's gonna do it
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CB7 Score: 110/144
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg || http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg

Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/22/2008 9:59:11 PM | message detail | #114 | filter

And remember, mud spelled backwards is dum

YEAH GO DUMKIP

>.>
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My sig keeps resetting every time I open firefox for some damn reason so I'm too lazy to make it my CB score.

ZFS | Posted 10/22/2008 10:00:02 PM | message detail | #115 | filter

let's go mario time to sff mudkip

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six bullets. more than enough to kill anything that moves.

trannyscience | Posted 10/23/2008 1:19:38 AM | message detail | #116 | filter

ted crunkensteinsience and the AUGHs indeed

I wanted to pick X > Mario here, but I'd been backing the 'kip for so long that I just had to stick with it. oh well, at least I suggested it in my writeup at least.
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif

Lopen | Posted 10/23/2008 1:24:57 AM | message detail | #117 | filter

I almost took Mega Man X here too. Figured it'd be pretty close... that's why I have Mega Man X > Mario next round despite not expecting Bowser and Luigi to be in the match. I have the closest percent moral victory is mine!

... still think Mario wins though. Almost half of X's lead came in the power hour, and Mega Man does have a pretty nasty drop off, typically. 752 is pretty manageable. As long as Mario doesn't drop more than a few hundred more he should turn this.

MMX > Liquid next round book it...!
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe

gamer88coool | Posted 10/23/2008 4:55:29 AM | message detail | #118 | filter

I think i see the pattern here....
2 nintendo + 1 decent non-nintendo + misc=
A. Nintendo flushed out. other 2 win
B. The decent takes 1st and the better nintendo takes 2nd

This looks goooooood
Go Frog! (Frog>Samus lolyes)
Go Arthas! (come in under alucard)
Go Sora! (UPSET SQUALL!!!!!!!)
YAHHHH......

Luigi....................27.88% 35630
Liquid Snake.....30.59% 39084
Bowser...............22.69% 29000
Phoenix Wright..18.84% 24072
TOTAL VOTES..............127786

What Happened - Liquid takes advantage of the Luigi/Bowser split to take first. Luigi takes advantage of being the Mario favorite over Bowser to take second. Bowser looks bad, which is nothing new to him if you've been watching him for the last 3 years. Phoenix actually impresses, holding up very well in this match.

Why it Happened - There was always a good possibility of Liquid taking first here because Luigi and Bowser would split enough for it to happen. Still, no one expected Phoenix to do so well and Bowser to fall so far behind. Could it be that Phoenix doing so well actually hurt Bowser/Luigi's chances?

What Will Happen - With more Nintendo to deal with in R3, Liquid has a shot at escaping the division.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay HM, Lopen and Guest!

Yoblazer - 25
Ngamer - 23
Tran - 22
HM - 22
Moltar - 20
Guest - 19
Lopen - 18

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Tran gets the point for Luigi, Leon gets the point for Liquid, HM gets the point for Bowser, and HM gets the point for Phoenix

Ngamer - 27
Yoblazer - 27
HM - 25
Moltar - 24
Tran - 24
Lopen - 15
Guest (War, KP (2), Dp, Justin, greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai, Klennex, Luis, Scott, Soul, Leon) - 15
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Moltar Status: augh
Mario/Zelda/MMX/Mudkip - Bracket: Mario > MMX - Vote: Zelda (105/152)

Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/23/2008 9:37:17 AM | message detail | #120 | filter

Go Frog! (Frog>Samus lolyes)

Sorry, but the chances of that are slim. Samus and Ganondorf faced each other in 2005. Ganon held his own. That shows that Samus can't use SFF to her advantage. If anyone, it's Nightmare that may sneak through. Why is it that everyone expects a barn-burner every time Frog's involved...??
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM

wow

i may be able to get all the write-ups posted in 2 posts today!
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Moltar Status: augh
Mario/Zelda/MMX/Mudkip - Bracket: Mario > MMX - Vote: Zelda (105/152)

Division 3: Round 2 - Match 37 – Samus vs. Nightmare vs. Ganondorf vs. Frog

Moltar’s Analysis

Samus
Round 1 - 52.19% vs. Nightmare, Crash and Raz

Samus has no trouble with her group

Nightmare
Round 1 - 22.69% vs. Samus, Crash and Raz

Nightmare has no trouble taking second

Ganondorf
Round 1 - 43.86% vs. Frog, KOS-MOS and Neku

yeahhh Ganondorf

Frog
Round 1 - 24.24% vs. Ganondorf, KOS-MOS and Neku

Frog lose to KOS-MOS? I don’t think so!

Well, at least we can count on Division 3 to save us from the horrors everywhere else. Then again, this match is pretty bad. We’ve already seen Samus vs. Frog and Samus vs. Ganondorf and they went “just as planned”.

So yeah, Samus takes first and Ganondorf avoids any major SFF to take second. Nightmare and Frog fight over the meaningless third place spot.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Samus > Ganondorf

Moltar’s Prediction is: Samus: 37% - Ganondorf: 27% - Frog: 19% - Nightmare: 17%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Easy match today. I don't think we're going to see anything outside of norm. Samus should take first pretty easy, and Ganon will do a solid second, with Frog being a distant third. The big thing is how Samus/Ganon "LFF" goes -- we've seen how bad that can turn out for Nintendo characters. But as far as it changing the results, I can't see that happening. Ganon held up well against Samus when they faced a few years back, and Zelda's putting up 20%+ in a match with Mario, X, and Mudkip -- impressive to say the least. With a killer pic and a huge difference in strength between Ganon and Frog, I'd sooner expect Ganon to do something weird to Samus before Frog to advance.

Prediction: Samus - 39% ; Ganon - 29% ; Frog - 19% ; Nightmare - 13%
Vote: Samus

Yoblazer’s Analysis

There's not much to write about here, so I'll try to be brief (I usually fail, but hey!). We have Samus, we have Ganondorf, and we have Nightmare and Frog who, who would be a few miles behind aforementioned Samus and Ganondorf. Despite the chaotic stream of surprises we've seen in the past month, most people are assuming this one is still safe. I agree, but let's take a quick look why.

The general consensus here is an easy Samus > Ganondorf result, but there are a few dissenters. No one is doubting Samus Aran. She's firmly entrenched in the Noble 9 and has been for years, so her first place victory will be easy spleezy. People are, however, a bit less confident in her Nintendo cohort, GANOMDROF DRAGMIRE. Make no mistake, Ganondorf is significantly stronger than either Frog or Nightmare, but the concern lies with SFF. After witnessing the Luigi/Bowser collapse of 2008 top what has been a lackluster year for Nintendo, how are we to casually assume that Ganon will be safe?! How?! Shall we hide the children now?! Shall we flee for our lives!!! ganooooooooon nooooooooo

Relax, things won't be that bad. Ganon is safe for a few key reasons. First, as I just touched upon, he's a lot stronger than either of his non-hot mama opponents. For Pete's sake, he nearly put up 65% on Frog in the last round. That's legit power, and it would take a truckload of SFF to reverse such a result. Not only would Samus really have to steamroll through the Zelda villain, but either Frog or Nightmare would have to maintain static percentages from their earlier performances. Considering that they're both facing big ups in competition quality, this is hardly plausible. Plus, Ganon shouldn't be too badly affected by SFF, anyway. He held up just fine against Samus a few years ago, and Zelda is proving that she can hang with Mario as we speak. In fact, Samus/Ganon should split somewhat similarly to what Mario/Zelda are doing now. That spells some (seemingly rare) good news for Nintendo, along with bad news for the two poor foes.

So, just what about those foes? I can imagine either of them edging it out for the meaningless third place spot, but Frog always seems to do well when things are close, so I'll give him the advantage.

In the reaches of space... Below the surface of planet Zebes. Samus Aran faced the space pirates. She destroyed there operation, wiped out the parasites called Metroids, and defeated Mother brain. But the pirates were far from finished...

Samus - 38%
Nightmare - 17%
Ganondorf - 26%
Frog - 19%

Lopen’s Analysis

Wow, this is like... the worst match of the ever. I vote Nightmare just because the other three are just that AUGH *hides from Moltar*. (Okay, Samus is alright too)

I dunno. Samus > Ganondorf (I feel kinda bad calling him Bacondorf now because that compares him to our illustrious admin, something even Ganon doesn't deserve) seems pretty likely, here. People here might be fearing "NINTENDO SFF" after the last two matches, but I think that's a misplaced fear. I've said it time and time again... straight company SFF in these 4 ways is light, you need more than that, especially when you're a company as big as Nintendo.

Frog and Nightmare are just too far behind. Frog might try to give Ganondorf a scare in the opening minutes, but I'm kinda doubting that even.

Yeah, worst match of the ever doesn't get much from me when it's not that debatable, sorry.

Lopen's prediction
Samus – 35.09%
Ganondorf – 25.41%
Frog – 21.07%
Nightmare – 18.43%

Transience’s Analysis

nice show by X today. Mario / Luigi / MMX / Liquid looks pretty damn interesting. can't wait for that one.

today.. blah, whatever. Zelda showed today that Ganondorf is going to hold up great against Samus.. the only thing is that we can't tell how big the non-Nintendo votes are since today's match is three Nintendo characters and one Nintendo-lite guy in Mega Man X. there's a verrrrrrrrrry small chance that we get a huge underperformance from Samus and Ganon, but I don't expect it to be too big since Frog is just average and Nightmare's around the fodder line.

this match is more about seeing Samus with Ganondorf, and then comparing it with Vincent tomorrow. Vincent has to be looked at as a serious threat to place first, especially if Falco advances. BUT LET'S NOT GO THERE YET

blah no haiku today who cares

transience's prediction:

Samus with 37.78%
Ganondorf with 29.01%
Frog with 19.89%
Nightmare with 13.32%

Ngamer’s Analysis

Haha, what a fun match that was! I never lost my faith in Mario, because as I kept pointing out in Stats MM has been a beast in the first three hours for a few years now, but that hasn't kept him from dropping like a stone the rest of the time. Still it was funny when I pointed out how Mega had jumped to a 169 vote lead on Samus before collapsing, and then the very next update MM hit 170 and continues climbing by 50 during many updates. So Mario will end up winning and doing so with ease, but this still makes the rest of his run so much more interesting... With Luigi in the picture for R3, will he do more damage than Zelda and allow MMX a win? When it's Link/Mario/MMX/Zack, can we expect Mario and MM to again be in a dog fight, allowing Zack to slip on by?

However this match has possibly an even larger impact character: Mudkip. I know I know, he's not a joke, or at least not in the same way as Block/Bag/Cube, but this was still a huge collapse from a guy that many of us though would have a more static fanbase thanks to that extra joke appeal. Is this a signal that voters are tiring of these joke characters? L-Block and Dog put up a huge number, but WCC failed to match that performance by a long shot, and then the Bag was even 6% further back of the mark... Maybe I'm just getting my hopes up only to be crushed once again, but this is starting to make me feel better about Ryu's chances in this next one!

But now we'll have to rush into my thought on tonight's battle, as we're running out of time!

X-Stats from Round One
Samus - 32.86% (based on '07 Crash)
Nightmare - 19.91% (based on '07 Crash)
Ganon - 31.32% (based on '07 KOS-MOS)
Frog - 22.29% (based on '07 KOS-MOS)

This is cool to look over because I feel its one of the rare cases where those x-stat values might be at least somewhat reliable; both Crash and KOS-MOS have been able to avoid LFF situations in '07 and '08, so we ought to be able to put a little bit of faith into the year over year comparison. Nightmare was the disappointment of the group in my opinion- coming in hot off Soul Calibur 4, yet he couldn't even entirely put away Crash? Frog meanwhile had his only good wire to wire showing since 2004, making it a no-doubter against KM when most had been expecting a shoot out. Nightmare's an easy last in this group and Samus should have no trouble getting first, which leaves us to discuss second place.

Heading into the bracket this was probably the only R2 result that I considered a "no brainer" no matter how you tried to twist it. Samus > Ganon, what else could possibly happen? But with the way Nintendo has been coming up short whenever LFF comes into play, and how Ganon took a pretty big dive once the picture came up last round, and how CT:DS has apparently been a real shot in the arm for everything Ct-related this season, I'm going to have to back the upset and say...

Nay, just kidding! Ganon will pound Frog and take this down easy. He has already stood up well against Samus directly, Frog is still Frog, and even if he were getting Bacondorf in this one I still wouldn't be too worried. As is he looks pretty good in that pic, while Frog will be lacking his Sword Factor votes. Now keep in mind I'm not calling for a Ganon blowout from wire to wire; its entirely possible that Frog comes out like a house of fire in the opening three hours and puts a real scare into Nintendo for a short while. But no worries, as he'll pull an MMX and be out of contention before too long, except that he's going to fall even HARDER.

Sooo with Samus looking great (in the pic too!), Ganon and Frog looking decent, and Nighmare looking awful (in the pic too!), it shouldn't take much pot stirring to arrive at

Samus Aran - 35.81%
Ganondorf - 26.50%
Frog - 20.82%
Nightmare - 16.87%

That looks... wonderful!

Ngamer Says: Samus > Ganon

Guest’s Analysis - Luis_Sera

I’ll be honest. I didn’t pick this match based on the prospect of entertaining an upset. Or even on the basis of it being in any way an interesting match. Actually, it was kind of the penultimate match left unpicked, but enough of that, it still has Samus, Nightmare and Ganon in it! Oh, and Frog, but unless he’s cheating his way to a comeback win there’s nothing really special about him. A handful of recent matches be damned, this match is clear-cut and it’s all about who looks bad and who looks great going into round 3. To take part in an equally clear-cut match… To be frank, I’m fairly easily on course for getting Division 3 perfect, and where’s the fun in that?

Samus is our winner here. Not just in this match, but in life in general. Whether she gets a percentage in the mid 30’s or low 40’s is what’s up for debate, and unlike most other Nintendo entities, despite facing a company brethren in the shape of Ganondorf, she never seems to suffer from the groan-inducing fallacy of this format, LFF. She held up against Link valiantly well in a Clinkeroth sandwich last year after all. Expect her to do about as well as if someone like, say, Vincent was in this match instead. The minor siphoning that will go on accounting for the small disparity in strength between them.

Speaking of Ganon, he comes second. Frog isn’t strong enough to take advantage of the drops in votes Ganny’ll be getting, and so he’ll be set adrift on a percentage island of his own, much like the others. He’ll be doing well for himself if he can get in the high 20’s, although I have him slightly below that in the mid 20’s. With Vincent entering the fray in the divisional final, there’s not much room for doubt over Ganon’s longevity in the contest this year, but a good performance here will give a good indication on just how close he can get to Vincent in the next round.

Frog’s journey ends in round 2 once again this year, and with Ganon his main competition for second this time rather than Scorpion, he doesn’t really have a shot. Like Ganon and Nightmare, he’s playing for pride, and perhaps will give a better indication on just how Chrono Trigger characters are performing this year. Frog and Crono looked fine in round 1 (i.e. didn’t bomb to hell), but then Magus gushed away a sizeable lead to Sandbag. JokeFAQs or not, it was more of the Chrono Trigger we’ve come to expect in recent years. Only time will tell whether the much overdue DS remake will give Crono and friends a return to relevance in this day and age, or merely stem the bleeding that’s become increasingly apparent since 2006.

Although his competition was poor, Nightmare did alright last round. It won’t be anywhere near enough to avoid last place here, but it’ll repeat a contest showing that is a near carbon copy of his debut in 2007. This kind of depends on how he does tomorrow, but Nightmare has been a beacon of consistency in his 3 previous matches. He’s always done near enough exactly as people expected of him. He’s a low midcarder, and even ignoring the fact that I’m a SC fan, he’s someone I wouldn’t mind seeing back year after year, if only to see him against a well matched competitor that he can have a good old slugfest with.

So, Samus 1st, Ganondorf 2nd, Frog 3rd and Nightmare 4th. But you already knew that.

Samus – 38.17%
Ganondorf – 26.57%
Frog – 19.72%
Nightmare - 15.54%

Crew Consensus: Samus > Ganon woo

Ngamer64 | Posted 10/23/2008 9:20:38 PM | message detail | #126 | filter

Awww... I was hearing some rumblings for Frog > Ganon last night, but I guess everyone returned to their senses once that good old Mario Morning Vote kicked in.

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Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/
Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com

WarThaHedgehog | Posted 10/23/2008 9:23:47 PM | message detail | #127 | filter

That's because Ganon isn't going to beat Samus.
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It has War, ExTha, and Crasty insulting each other as hedgehogs while being vaguely about your boobs. What did you expect. - Shadow The ExTha

DpObliVion | Posted 10/23/2008 9:30:08 PM | message detail | #128 | filter

DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

Mario > MMX for my great bracket, Zelda > Mudkip for great justice!

Okay, maybe not so great....but anyway, tomorrow we will again see two break far away from the pack while the other two perhaps battle for 3rd. One could hope that Nintendo SFF would open the door for Frog or Nightmare, but Chrono Trigger sucks in this format and Nightmare just isn't going to pull enough, because Samus is not going to dominate Ganondorf with the Nintendo vote.

I'm interested to see Samus and Ganondorf together in this poll, and how much Ganondorf could perhaps rSFF Samus, although we saw Samus go 60-40 against Ganondorf earlier. I suppose there's no reason to believe Ganondorf would have made up that difference in that time though.

For third, I'd like to think Nightmare could edge out Frog, but his pic concerns me. I'll stick with Nightmare, though.

Dp's bracket says: Samus > Ganondorf

Dp's prediction is: Samus > Ganondorf

Samus - 36%
Ganondorf - 28%
Nightmare - 18.05%
Frog - 17.95%

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

ZFS | Posted 10/23/2008 9:41:35 PM | message detail | #129 | filter

Frog over Ganon was always a pretty bad pick here, I think. Can't see SFF or LFF being enough to hurt Ganon to the point where he'd be in danger of losing to Frog.

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six bullets. more than enough to kill anything that moves.

gamer88coool | Posted 10/24/2008 5:02:25 AM | message detail | #130 | filter

Ganon is in danger of losing to Frog.
I recall something along the lines of,
If anyone, its Nightmare that may sneak through

Samus>Frog lolyes
fix'd

transience | Posted 10/24/2008 6:41:56 AM | message detail | #131 | filter

actually, Frog is probably going to end closer to Nightmare than to Ganondorf.
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xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la

LeonhartFour | Posted 10/24/2008 6:57:34 AM | message detail | #132 | filter

It's possible, but he's twice as far ahead of Nightmare right now and still gaining on him at close to the same rate. Ganon will have his work cut out for him to do that, I think.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi

Mario...............31.04% 42599
Zelda...............20.09% 27572
Mega Man X...29.98% 41146
Mudkip............18.88% 25908
TOTAL VOTES..........137225

What Happened - And right after Luigi and Bowser look bad, Mario nearly loses to MMX. Go Mario characters! Zelda holds up much better than most thought, while Mudkip doesn't end up being a threat at all.

Why it Happened - With Mario/Zelda splitting once again, MMX was almost able to capitalize on it and take first. Zelda also held up really well from Round 1. Mudkip had some rallying going on, but nothing to make it a threat to advance.

What Will Happen - Liquid/Luigi/Mario/MMX...this division just gets more and more interesting.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay everyone (except Tran and Guest)!

Yoblazer - 26
Ngamer - 24
HM - 23
Tran - 22
Moltar - 21
Guest - 19
Lopen - 19

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Tran gets the point for Mario, Yo gets the point for MMX, Lopen gets the point for Mudkip, and Ed gets the point for Zelda

Yoblazer - 28
Ngamer - 27
HM - 25
Tran - 25
Moltar - 24
Lopen - 16
Guest (War, KP (2), Dp, Justin, greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai, Klennex, Luis, Scott, Soul, Leon, Ed) - 16
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Moltar Status: augh
Samus/Nightmare/Ganondorf/Frog - Bracket: Samus > Ganondorf - Vote: Ganondorf (113/160)

LeonhartFour | Posted 10/24/2008 5:06:32 PM | message detail | #134 | filter

And right after Luigi and Bowser look bad

I don't think Luigi looked bad, and he didn't look that bad in round 1 either. Seriously, he owned Bowser's face and he stayed decently close to Liquid, despite the obvious massive LFF split.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2008 5:11:30 PM | message detail | #135 | filter

Well you can say that if you think it's okay to have Liquid Snake pulling 47% on you

(it should be something only a Noble Niner can do but that's not the point <<)
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in

KamikazePotato | Posted 10/24/2008 5:16:10 PM | message detail | #136 | filter

Even if you assume that Roxas is much weaker than we thought (which he probably is to an extent, looking at Riku), he still got stomped by Liquid and Luigi in R1. And Bowser still put up 45% in his R1 match and proceeded to get destroyed by Luigi come match time. Luigi has probably dropped a little, but that's it.

As for Liquid, I'm willing to chalk it up to a huge MGS boost. Wouldn't be the weirdest thing I've seen in this contest.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10

LeonhartFour | Posted 10/24/2008 5:16:19 PM | message detail | #137 | filter

It was only 45.5%!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi

Division 3: Round 2 - Match 38 – Vincent Valentine vs. Falco Lombardi vs. Scorpion vs. Gordon Freeman

Moltar’s Analysis

Vincent
Round 1 - 45.67% vs. Falco, GlaDOS andWander

Vincent puts up decent numbers

Falco
Round 1 - 26.82% vs. Vincent, GlaDOS andWander

Falco looks to have some good strength

Scorpion
Round 1 - 30.11% vs. Gordon, Balthier and Big Daddy

Scorps was in a bit more danger than we figured

Gordon
Round 1 - 28.47% vs. Scorpion, Balthier and Big Daddy

Gordon almost had it, but the day vote killed him.

This match got a whole lot harder to call after Round 1. Vincent taking first here is the only thing I’m sure about. He’s still the strongest one in this group by far.

The battle for second is crazy though. Falco looked good in his match with Vincent. When you take out GlaDOS’s and Wander’s votes, Falco got 37% on Vincent. And in case you’ve forgotten, Vincent is one of the strongest characters in this bracket. Scorpion and Gordon being thrown into the mix doesn’t hurt him too much, as he’ll still get the Nintendo vote.

Scorpion looked very unimpressive in his match though, needing the morning and after-school votes to pull away from Gordon Freeman of all characters. Plus, the guy barely broke 30% on a group composed of Gordon Freeman, Flopthier, and Big Daddy. I mean…that’s just bad.

Lastly, there’s Gordon. If you thought Big Daddy was holding him down for whatever reason, well, now he isn’t. Gordon was the one who looked good last round in his match, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he does snatch second place.

So uh…I’m going to guess Falco takes second here again. Honestly I don’t have a clue what happens here. Going into the match, Falco looks the most impressive, followed by Gordon, then Scorpion. Plus, look at Scorps pic. what the hell is that

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Vincent > Scorpion

Moltar’s Prediction is: Vincent: 38% - Falco: 22% - Gordon: 21% - Scorpion: 19%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Before round 1, I would have expected Scorpion to take second here, but after seeing Falco put up 27% on Vincent and easily advance over GlaDOS, I like the bird to advance with relatively little problem. Coming into the contest, I expected Falco to be a weaker Fox, who I had some doubts about since his one big match last year was all Nintendo, but not anymore. Both of the Star Fox guys impressed me in round 1 -- they've got real strength.

As far as Gordon and Scorpion go, I think they'll both keep this kinda competitive, especially with one another, but not to the point of giving Falco a real scare. The only thing that makes me think otherwise is how well Gordon did last round. He came within 2% of Scorpion with the very real possibility of Big Daddy holding him back. BioShock and Half-Life are very similar games, and it wouldn't surprise me if Gordon does a fair bit with Big Daddy gone -- that's the big reason I like Gordon to outdo Scorpion here.

But I don't think it'll be enough to top Falco. Nintendo hasn't done all that well this year, but with him being the lone Nintendo representative he's bound to benefit to some extent in a match full of 'badass' types. Add to that his round 1 performance and a good pic (lol scorpion), and I think he's the one to go with here. Should be a good match.

C'mon Falco

Prediction: Vincent - 36% ; Falco - 24% ; Gordon Freeman - 21% ; Scorpion - 19%
Vote: Vincent

Yoblazer’s Analysis

Quick one tonight, gents (I mean it this time!). Vincent Valentine, Falco Lombardi, Scorpion, and Gordon Freeman are ready to dance. Who woos the ladies, and who ends up looking as clumsy and dimwitted as the guy writing this analysis? I might just have the answer. wait no

Even for a dunderhead, knowing that Vinnie V. will win this match isn't hard. The guy can hang with the lower dredges of the Noble 9, and as such should have no trouble disposing of three midcarders. The hard part here is trying to reason who comes in second, and honestly, fine arguments can be made for all three competitors. Who am I going with? I'm going with my bracket, and that means going with Falco.

He was a longshot before the contest starting, but I think most people will admit that Falco looks much better now. He did a great job against Vincent in the first round, and the way that Gordon and Scorpion were nearly equal in their own match makes things look even rosier for him, in my opinion. The fact that he's the only Nintendo option and stands out against three opponents who will generally be splitting appeal and fanbase votes (more than they will be with Falco, anyway) is another plus. He's got a lot going for him, he actually seems to get some of the Smash faithful to give a crap, and he's in pretty favorable conditions, so I think that'll be just enough to eek one out over Gordon. I expect Scorpion to finish last, as I get the feeling Vincent will hurt him most. Also, bad picture.

Vincent Valentine - 38%
Falco Lombardi - 22%
Scorpion - 19%
Gordon - 21%

Lopen’s Analysis

Well, this could have potentially anyone that isn't Vincent coming in second. That being said, I really don't like Scorpion's chances. Squeaking by Gordon Freeman, when he's proven to have a more devoted fanbase, doesn't speak well for your chances to get through the next round. Not to mention Scorpion looks like... what the **** is that picture. Coffee Ninja, I will have your head... I will mount it on the wall next to Cyko "Bathtowel Kefka" Atom.

So, yeah. See ya later, Scorpion. That picture combined with last round's failure to beatdown Gordon Freeman is enough to convince me you're done. He probably won't totally fold either... he held up pretty well last year. But even so, the real match here is between Falco and Gordon Freeman.

Ultimately, though, I think I have to go with Gordon. Two reasons, really. Firstly, I look at his match last year in R2... Sonic, Sub-Zero, and Duke. I'm thinkin to myself that that four pack was at least on par with this one, probably a wee bit stronger. He got 19% on that. The other reason, Falco's R1 performance wasn't really that strong... Falco got 26% on Vincent, GlaDOS, and Wander. Do I think that Falco's going to drop a lot with GlaDOS being replaced with a stronger GFNW, and Wander being replaced with a RIDICULOUSLY stronger Scorpion? Absolutely. Falco probably barely scrapes by 20% here.

... huh? Gordon ~ 20, Falco ~ 20... Maybe Scorpion has a chance after all...? If Vincent doesn't hit over 40 this time... wow. I mean, I suppose Scorpion SHOULD hit around that number as well, based on last year's performances... but I really don't like that he didn't dominate Gordon Freeman. Total toss-up at this point, but I guess the real kicker here is that Gordon Freeman appeals to the most different fanbase, here.

Scorpion is a ruthless badass, Falco is a jackass badass, Vincent is a silent badass. Gordon. Gordon is a physicist. I certainly think things like the Doppler Effect or Hellmann–Feynman theorem are hardcore, the voters might not.

Lopen's prediction:
Vincent – 37.36%
Gordon Freeman – 21.94%
Scorpion – 21.66%
Falco – 20.04%

Transience’s Analysis

today looks to be a great match -- four guys, four unique fanbases, three guys with good reasons to win.

Vincent's got first here. his percentage will be sorta interesting since we're going to be comparing him to Samus. Vincent/Crono looks dead, but Ganondorf anchoring Samus could give him a good shot. plus, he didn't look so great last round, but that's not too clear since Falco is an unknown. today should be a better read, and he'll probably get near Samus's percentage.

now for these other three. I think these guys are all going to be very close and am not sure even who to pick. we've got Falco, a Nintendo guy that impressed (!) and looked about equivalent to Fox. we've got an Orange Box-boosted Freeman who led Scorpion for hours before dying in the day. and we've got Scorpion, a proven guy who disappointed a little in round 1, but still won and shouldn't have dropped off at all.

Freeman has always seemed weird. he does well against strong guys and loses to weak ones. that would seem to say that he'd overperform in a match like this where 20% is good.. I hate, hate, hate trusting Freeman in a match like this though. it reminds me of Duke/Gordon last year, where Freeman seemed like he had it and Duke used his great night vote to bury Gordon.

Falco.. if he's as good as Fox, he's probably as good as Scorpion, maybe a little bit better. I'm not sure if he is though and I think he kinda overperformed in round 1 - that was Vincent and two things that were really unknown to a lot of people. I don't think Falco's as good as he looked. plus, I don't like picking something Nintendo this year. just feels wrong.

lastly there's Scorpion, a guy who rocked Midna and Frog last year and did really well against Samus and Yoshi. sure, there was a fanbase split, but getting with 2% or so of Yoshi is pretty good. I like his fanbase to hold up the best here, and I'm sticking with him. even if his picture is awful.

don't trust Nintendo
Gordon Freeman Never Wins
give me Scorpion

transience's prediction:

Vincent with 38.99%
Scorpion with 22.07%
Gordon Freeman with 20.23%
Falco with 18.71%

Ngamer’s Analysis

What's this? A match that we all agree is "pretty much a foregone conclusion"... actually turns out that way? Well now, I guess there's a first time for everything! Eh, actually we did learn at least two things from this match: whenever she can avoid looking like an orange toilet, Samus is rock-solid in this format, and two, Chrono Trigger continues to give indications that it has stemmed the tide of its yearly blood loss. That being the case, Vincent needs to really show us something tonight if he's going to prove (firstly) that he'll be able to bounce Samus if full-on Nintendo LFF comes into play and (secondly) that he's still the guy to beat in his upcoming Crono rematch. Now we just need someone to knock off the Block, so that rematch will actually mean something...

Can VV redeem himself from that underwhelming opening round performance? Can Falco prove that Nintendo is still a force to be reckoned with on this site, at least when it can avoid LFFing itself to death? Let's look closer.

X-Stats from Round One
Vincent - 35.55% (based on '07 Wander)
Falco - 26.31% (based on '07 Wander)
Scorpion - 20.00% (based on '07 Balthier)
Gordon - 19.45% (based on '07 Balthier)

I see no reason for that Wander number to be unreliable; he looked utterly pathetic last season and gave us more of the same in '08, without any good excuse for his underperformance in either case. Which means, whoa, was Falco ever impressive! I wouldn't think he could possibly be THAT close to Fox in strength, but the numbers don't lie... or DO they? Scorpion and Gordon better hope they do! There's no way both of those guys have fallen back to the fodder line; clearly Balthier performed a ton better this season then he did in his matches back in '07, for whatever reason. But even adjusting them upwards some, that's plenty of ground they'd need to make up on Falco- can they do so without any help from LFF?

That's the best thing about this match: it ought to give us a nice clear reading on all four of these characters, as we've got that rare poll between four unique fanbases where no one has any good excuse for not playing to their full potential. Let's start with Gordon... I've had this Freeman theory for a while which says that no one cares about HIM, but plenty of people do love all things Half-Life. That's why when he was just a zoomed out blob of a generic scientist in '02/'03/'04 he was beyond pathetic, but ever since he started getting these closer shots with the HL logo on his chest plainly in sight Gordon has suddenly become a decent low mid-carder. R1 was a perfect example of a "very good" Gordon pic... and just look at the result! This time around all we get is an ulta-zoomed (seriously SB, why the obsession with super closeups?) mug shot, and sorry, that tiny Half-Life style "A" isn't going to cut it. Much as I'll be rooting for the last Free Man, I can't see him finishing anywhere but last for this match.

Scorpion's a real oddball. Even accounting for Gordon's HL logo help and the boost he apparently received from the Orange Box, there was just no excuse for Scorpion to not put him away in that match, especially as he was sporting a full-on killer ninja pic that should have put him way over with the casuals. If people had finally just given up on the Mortal Kombat series I'd be able to understand it, but no, Sub-Zero looked like he hadn't missed a beat just last week, hanging in there with Auron and never letting his second place finish be in doubt. And then to lower my faith even further, Scorp gets THIS picture... good gracious! I know its almost Halloween, but even so I can't see skeletons being more popular than awesome harpoon-throwing ninjas. Definitely expect a dropoff in the casual support for a character who looks this way, and if that's the case he should just be concerned with beating out Freeman to avoid the cellar, not trying to advance!

As for the final two, I see Vincent taking advantage of the lessening of anti-favoriteFAQs and also the lack of a joke option in this poll (surely many voters knew he'd be fine last round and threw their vote to GlaDOS for the lulz) to put together the kind of showing we would expect from an NN-breaker. And Falco, well... call me crazy, but I still have plenty of faith in Nintendo. Yes, their inter-company SFF can be nasty, but let these characters lock horns with other independent entrants of about equal strength and I think that fans of the company will put them through to the next round 4 out of 5 times. I'm picturing a good early push for Gordon, Vincent to devour the percentage all through the overnight, and Falco to tear it up once the sun rises and put his second place finish away without too much trouble.

Sooo, yup, got to pick against my bracket here and bank on Nintendo and having the best pic of the bunch in support of Falco! Converting those words to numbers and stirring the pot results in:

Vincent Valentine - 37.10%
Falco Lombardi - 22.38%
Scorpion - 20.75%
Gordon Freeman - 19.77%

That looks and smells just wonderful!

Ngamer Says: Vincent > Falco

Guest’s Analysis - Soul

LAST ROUND
Vincent > Falco > GlaDOS > Wander
Scorpion > Gordon > Balthier > Big Daddy

The best match of round 2 is here! Why is this the best match? Two reasons.

1. Gordon
2. Freeman

In my other write-ups, I told everyone how GlaDOS would beat both Vincent and Falco. I told everyone how Heavy would beat Kratos, Jill, and Ocelot. Even though I did not write an analysis, I also predicted Spy to beat Pikachu. If you were paying attention, you would realize that I got all those predictions wrong. So, why then should someone trust this write-up? Well, for good reason. I have a good feeling on this one.

First things first. Vincent sucks.

Second things next, this site is too pro-Japanese things, so Vincent will win here. Sad, but true.

The interesting match will be between the other three competitors here. Falco Lombardi, also known as GOD IF GOD WAS AN ARWING PILOT, shown last round. I don't remember what he got, and I'm too lazy to check, so trust me when I say he crushed all expectations of him. Reason being? He's that.damn.good.

Scorpion won his fourpack. Yet no one cares about that. Everyone cares about Gordon Freeman's performance. We had people convinced Gordon would finish in fourth place. Those people were crazy. What most people had is Gordon finishing in second, but Scorpion winning pretty comfortably. That did not happen. In fact, Gordon crushed just about everyone's predictions by actually having the lead for hours. Again, if I'm wrong on that point, I apologize. Point is, Gordon really shocked people last match.

Scorpion did win that fourpack though. So, why is this a fight between all three if Scorpion already proved he was stronger then Gordon? Well, simply put, Big Daddy was in the match. Now, I'm not going to start going on and on about some makeshift SFF theory. I'll leave that for Turtle. What I will say is that when people think of the best single-player FPS games, the two that immediately come to mind are Half-Life 2 and Bioshock. I'm not going to say there was significant SFF there, but I will say that the possibility of those two characters sharing a fanbase is there. So if you take Big Daddy out of the picture in the first match, I wouldn't have been surprised if Gordon won that match straight up.

Who's coming in second here? Well, each character has their strong points. Scorpion being the most known the of three and has proven strength. Gordon impressing big time, and could very well be stronger then Scorpion. Falco, being the only Nintendo representative, also impressed against Vincent with no outside influences. It's anyone's ball game.

For me, I'm sticking with my gut and my bias, and I'm going to pick Gordon Freeman. It's a risky move, but I would be pissed if I didn't pick him and he took the upset.

Vincent - 30.74%
Gordon - 24.57%
Falco - 24.14%
Scorpion - 20.55%

Crew Consensus: Good arguments made for Gordon, Scorps and Falco to take second to Vincent's first. Majority is going with Vincent > Falco though.

DpObliVion | Posted 10/24/2008 9:31:29 PM | message detail | #143 | filter

DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-38.jpg

I hate to be so persuaded in my prediction by the match pic, but damn it, Scorpion doesn't stand a chance with that. In Round 1, Scorpion beat Gordon by a mere 30.11% to 28.47%, and Scorpion was pretty lucky with the opponents he had. Scorpion is one of those characters who gets by on recognizability, if there's known characters in there with him, he's not going to get votes. Vincent and Falco will take away much more of the casual vote than Balthier and Big Daddy.

Oh yeah....and you can't even recognize Scorpion anymore, anyway.

As for second, I keep flip-flopping. Want to go with Gordon, since I just don't have much faith in Falco, but Falco was certainly more impressive with ~27% in the first round with the leader sucking up ~46%, while Gordon got ~28.5% to the leader's ~30%.

Ugh, this match pisses me off now because Scorpion had 2nd place easily with a half-decent pic and instead I'm losing points.

Dp's bracket says: Vincent > Scorpion

Confidence: 0%

Dp's prediction is: Vincent > Falco

Confidence: 50%

Vincent - 37.50%
Falco - 23.50%
Gordon - 21.50%
Scorpion - 17.50%

My gut is still telling me to go with Vincent > Gordon though....

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

trannyscience | Posted 10/24/2008 9:32:18 PM | message detail | #144 | filter

Falco lovin' freaks
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif

Personally, I prefer the air!
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Moltar Status: augh
Vincent/Falco/Scorpion/Gordon - Bracket: Vincent > Scorpion - Vote: Falco (121/168)

paraboxx | Posted 10/24/2008 9:42:18 PM | message detail | #146 | filter

Is that Scorp pic really that bad? MK fans know what he looks like with his mask off, and it seems clear (most years) that there's a lot of MK fans at this site.

Besides, it's a skull.

Skulls are still cool, aren't they?

gamer88coool | Posted 10/24/2008 9:45:26 PM | message detail | #147 | filter

Hands off my bread!

trannyscience | Posted 10/24/2008 9:51:34 PM | message detail | #148 | filter

we overreact to pictures. remember Zelda's AWFUL PICTURE?

we just forget that we were wrong and scream about picture factor in the very obvious situations. if Scorpion gets killed, it's not because of the picture.
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif

KamikazePotato | Posted 10/24/2008 9:52:51 PM | message detail | #149 | filter

This match is already very close. Even a 1% shift could cost Scorpion the match. The pic matters.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10

ZFS | Posted 10/24/2008 9:56:48 PM | message detail | #150 | filter

Scorpion's pic isn't too good, but it won't be big enough to cause him to lose, unless it's a really close match - which I doubt we'll see, regardless of who wins.

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try to imagine a thing called a B button

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