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Character Battle VII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

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trannyscience | Posted 10/20/2008 9:17:29 PM | message detail | #051 | filter

I sent mine off like five hours ago lol owned
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif

Division 1: Round 2 - Match 34 – Marth vs. Duke Nukem vs. Altair vs. Lucario

Moltar’s Analysis

Marth
Round 1 - 29.49% vs. Duke, Niko and Kefka

Votedashes into Round 2

Duke
Round 1 - 26.35% vs. Marth, Cecil and Jade

Once again, The Duke defies all odds.

Altair
Round 1 - 43.10% vs. Lucario, Isaac and Guybrush

I’m still surprised people liked Assassin’s Creed! I hated it.

Lucario
Round 1 - 22.91% vs. Altair, Isaac and Guybrush

Midna, Balthier, meet Lucario

Yeah, I wasn’t prepared at all for this match. I originally expected Lucario to be strong enough to SFF Marth, allowing him to take first, and then Niko ends up in second just because Altair would be extremely weak. god in hindsight this seems so dumb.

So anyway, in Round 1 we saw Marth win his fourpack by a small margin, and the underdog Duke get by Niko and Kefka to take second. I still have trouble explaining this result. Then in the next match, either Altair turned out to be stronger than expected, or Lucario flopped hard. I believe both things happened, as Isaac did what he was supposed to. It’s more reasonable to think Lucario is just a bit stronger than Isaac than Isaac and Lucario hurt each other allowing Altair to crush them and Guybrush to get close.

Well, here’s what I think happens now. Altair takes first. His Round 1 numbers were very impressive, and even though there is the possibility that he just took advantage to two weak Nintendo guys, I’m starting to believe Altair is decent. Besides, Duke and Marth are his competition now, and that isn’t a huge step up.

Second is between Duke and a Lucario-hindered Marth. With Duke already being close enough to Marth to the point where Duke was actually beating Marth for a short while, I like Duke’s chances to advance here. You can’t forget though, Duke flopped hard in Round 2 last year. The difference here is that his competition still isn’t strong, but I’m still worried for Duke’s chances. A Marth/Lucario split is hard to ignore though, and Marth just isn’t strong enough to benefit from SFF here.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Lucario > Niko (oh geez)

Moltar’s Prediction is: Altair: 34% - Duke: 27% - Marth: 24% - Lucario: 15%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

So we started off round 2 with an easy match that went to expectations, maybe Zidane doing worse than anticipated but nothing crazy. Today should be anything but matching expectations. I'm not sure if there's even a consensus with this one. You could come up with almost any combination here, although some are more likely than others.

Given how well Altair performed in round 1, I'm hard pressed not to give him a win here. You've got some people saying Altair's being 'overrated,' but much like with Zack, you don't score 45% in a poll based entirely on apathy. Altair should have some strength to him, maybe our second strongest new character behind Zack. He has a perfect mix for today's match -- a great design, a popular, high selling game, and competition that isn't exactly brimming with strength. It can't hurt that even with a bad pic overall, he's got far and away the best pic of the bunch.

I like the Duke for second. Marth beat him last round, but with Lucario in the poll, he's going to lose some out on some of that Smash and Nintendo vote. It can be argued that Altair and Duke might hurt each other's 'casual' appeal, but I ain't buying that -- that kind of vote isn't connected near as strongly as Marth/Lucario. I got plenty of respect for Duke after getting burned by him two years running, but I don't think he's got enough in him to top Altair, who I liked for the division before Zack's showing yesterday.It's still possible that Marth could pull out second place here, but I don't have that kind of respect for him with another Nintendo character in the poll, even if it someone who nearly lost to Isaac.

Give me Altair with an easy first and Duke reversing the margin from his round 1 match. I'd like to see Altair put up some killer numbers, but I don't know if he'll have it in him.

Prediction: Altair - 34% ; Duke Nukem - 28% ; Marth - 25% ; Lucario - 13%
Vote: Altair

Yoblazer’s Analysis

Today's match won't be great for my bracket (my Lucario > Kefka result will almost surely net me zero points), but it could be great fun, nonetheless. We know the competitors and how most of them surprised us last round. Of the four members in the Marth, Duke Nukem, Altair, and Lucario quartet, only the Fire Emblem prince (Marth) performed how we expected him to. Total unpredictability? Should be a fun little match!

I must begin this short analysis by referencing my shamed disappointment in Lucario. The aura Pokemon carried the hopes of most of the Gurus, yet he was inarguably (no one else is CLOSE) the biggest bomb of Round 1. This guy was supposed to win easily. This guy was supposed to win TWICE. And what did he do? He got ****ing doubled, and he almost lost to Isaac. Not even Diddy Kong can compare to this crap. And now that he's facing stiffer competition and a guy who can take most of his Smash support away, I'm expecting an even worse performance.

Marth will be much more competitive than his Nintendo counterpart. He was way more impressive in the first round, and he has the Melee advantage over Lucario. However, I think he'll come up just short here. Altair and Duke may be splitting a ton of casual support, but it's not unreasonable to assume Marth and Lucario will be splitting just as much (if not more) Nintendo support. The same series gives them both a majority of their strength (although Lucario is so weak that this may not be the case), and while Marth will clearly be the bigger benefactor, Lucario's presence will still hurt him. The fact that the Nintendo reps will be splitting votes, coupled with the fact that they're not all that strong to begin with, means I think they'll be running much less than 50% of the vote?

What does that mean? It means if Duke and Altair can split their own votes relatively evenly, they'll both move on. Luckily for the two dudes with 'tudes, this is precisely what I think will happen. My gut tells me Duke is the guy, but the first round was just way too kind to Altair. So, whom do I side with?

ALWAYS BET ON DUKE

Yeah, I'm betting on Duke. Call me crazy, but I think Altair put up an inflated result in his first match. I don't mean to detract too much from his performance, but I think he benefited in what I can only call "Wow, this guy doesn't look like a ****ing fruit" factor. Much like Big Boss against his three hapless Nintendo chumps, Altair stood there, in all his badass glory, surrounded by three cartoony nitwits. As appealing as he would have looked in a 1v1 match, the sea of toon crap made him even more appealing. Unfortunately for the assassin, that was an advantage he doesn't have this time around, and thank god for that.

I can't gush enough over how much Duke Nukem DOMINATES today's picture. Seriously, this is Big Boss level of picture sex. Granted, Altair still looks very good, but the picture belongs to Duke. Seeing as how both these guys are casual bait (to some extent, at least), I can see this really aiding Duke. Combine that with the fact that he beat another new character, Niko Bellic, easily in his last match, and I think he's our winner today.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oUCbflBkIgo

Make sure to blast this before the match start k guys

Marth - 26%
Duke Nukem - 30%
Altair - 28%
Lucario - 16%

Lopen’s Analysis

So, Lucario, favorite for 1st here is now a total joke. That being said, I don't think he does as poorly as R1 implies. Contrary to what most people I'd assume though, I have the majority of Lucario's strength riding on the Pokemanz, not Brawl. I mean, let's face it, he simply wasn't that popular in Brawl. But in the Pokemon world he seems somewhat popular. Other than Mudkip I'd say he's the most popular post-GSC Pokemon. (Even if Bidoof would do better in the contest) Isaac, star of one of the few Nintendo RPGs not named Pokemon, might've done some damage to him (in fact, he probably did, considering how crappy Isaac did in proportion to Guybrush there). More than Marth can do, I bet.

Course, that doesn't mean he doesn't get a resounding last here. But it also means because most of his strength comes from Pokemon, Marth probably doesn't get hurt too much in this match. Think Kirby vs Lucas here as far as Brawl support split, but with Lucario actually having something else to back him up.

Now the difficulty here lies in placing Altair's strength. It's possible he's actually a force... or it's possible he benefited from a Ryu Hayabusa like situation from last year. Badass sticking out of a bunch of RPG characters, owns all, only to get everything turned around on him the next round, with other badasses in the fray. Once again, I think Guybrush tells the story, there. Altair really didn't do quite as well as his performances implied . That's only a tripling of Guybrush. The Duke almost managed that last year, boy.

What does that mean? That means the Duke is ready to kick some kick ass and chew bubble gum... and given that the Duke's opponent is an assassin, that's twice the ass to kick. And guess what? The Duke didn't bring twice as much gum. It's all about calling where the SFF lies. Some jackasses might think that last year supports the Duke folding first. The Duke doesn't buy it. Altair got the apathy vote from non GB players, the Duke had stiff competition from a variety of fanbases.

Expect the Duke to whoop that ass.

Lopen's prediction:
Marth – 29.02%
The Duke – 27.11%
Altair Country – 24.50%
Lucario – 19.37%

Transience’s Analysis

this match is a mess. three guys that could realistically finish in any order, and it's really difficult to analyze.

to start, we've got two Nintendo guys here, Marth and Lucario. the prevailing logic pre-contest was that Marth and Lucario would split votes, but given how awful Lucario did (almost losing to Isaac), wouldn't almost all the Smash votes go to Marth here? this is certainly a possibility. throw in that it makes logical sense for Altair and Duke Nukem to split the so-called "casual" votes and maybe Marth has a shot at placing despite Lucario.

Altair is really difficult to gauge. like Zack, he absolutely rocked his first round match, but given how bad Lucario seemed, was it really all that impressive? I say yes, but I have no idea just how good the performance was. Altair seems like a lock to place at the least, but if he wants to compete with Zack he probably needs to show that he's easily the strongest character here. I think he'll do well, but not THAT well.

then there's Duke Nukem.. well, Duke Nukem 3D came out on XBLA a couple days after his R1 match, but I doubt that matters much at all. Duke nearly beat Marth last round and while it's possible that he'll bomb (who remembers R2 last year?), he's the safer pick than Marth here.

what a messy match
three guys, all mediocre
all will lose to Zack

transience's prediction:

Altair - 32.44%
Duke Nukem - 28.55%
Marth - 26.55%
Lucario - 12.46%

Ngamer’s Analysis

Well would you look at that- one of the tournament's Elite characters has finally exceeded expectations! True, Link didn't blow us all away as he so often has in the past, but it seemed like the average pred I was seeing for him was right in that 49-52 range, and instead he's going to be finishing above 53 with ease. This goes along with my theory whereby "anti-favoriteFAQs" isn't going to be as big of a factor beyond the first round; it's not that people no longer LIKE Link/Seph/Snake etc etc, its just that after 7 straight years everyone is smart enough to know that they won't be threatened in the first round, and so its safe to throw their support to their second favorite character in the poll (Tifa, Falco, Zidane, or what have you). As we advance further into the bracket, though, a win from their favorites becomes less of a sure thing and so strengths should slowly return to more normal levels.

What remains to be seen is what kind of effect this trend will have on our joke characters- L-Block set the bar high with his momentum-gaining run to R6 last season, but I'm not at all convinced that he (or Bag or Cube) will be doing the same here in '08. They've already become entirely different animals by losing their "joke trends" and instead performing more or less like normal character of strength- maybe that's a sign that people were only supporting them out of disinterest in the other options, and as the field around them goes stronger they'll naturally weaken? Good gracious let's hope so!

Anyways, today- wowza, what a mess of a matchup! We knew Division One was going to be wild heading in, and boy has it lived up to the billing. Let's break out my new R1-based writeup format and get cracking!

Round One Values
Marth - 22.61% (based on '07 Kefka)
Duke - 21.34% (based on '07 Kefka)
Altair - 18.83% (based on '07 Guybrush)
Lucario - 12.80% (based on '07 Guybrush)

Now obviously that Altair number is a little low, because Guybrush looked a decent bit better last month than he did a year ago, but the point remains - everyone going crazy over him needs to take a step back and realize that he only blew out a guy who's as strong as Isaac. Not only that, but an Isaac who was being LFF'd by another Nintendo option! You don't exactly have to be a Titan of the industry to pull that off, and heck, I think even Duke could have done it, so Altair's going to have a difficult time finishing second tonight IMO.

Lucario... is just awful, no way around it. His only hope is that he shares less of a fanbase with Marth than he did Isaac- which I guess is ALMOST possible given their Nintendo handheld overlap, but nay, Luc must get almost all his votes from Brawl so it's much more likely that Marth murders him. I'd have to call last place a lock for the guy, and by a large margin.

The coolest battle should be for first place between Duke and Marth. Chalk me up as a big Duke disbeliever, but even I've been forced to warm up to him this past month: between making the Contest banner pic, dominating this match pic, and Forever and his taglines making him the best joke option of the bunch, I've got to believe Nukem has the upper hand in this group. Even so, I see Marth beating down Luc so effectively that he'll be able to make something of a run at Duke during the Day to keep this one interesting, and at the same time give himself enough of a gap to not be overcome by Altair's Xbox ASV.

Sooo Duke > Marth > Altair in a fairly tight one with Lucario lagging well behind ought to spin to something like...

Duke Nukem - 28.28%
Marth - 28.11%
Altair - 28.05%
Lucario - 15.56%

That looks... marvelous!

Ngamer Says: Duke > Marth

RaeSaraneth | Posted 10/20/2008 9:29:31 PM | message detail | #056 | filter

So I had a wonderful weekend in the middle of nowhere without internet, and I missed my voting and my analysis crew and it was just terrible. And I almost just missed voting in the Link match, which would have made me sad. This isn't even contributing to the topic :D So uh.. good luck with the analyses that are about to be posted and stuff <-- now it did a bit
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^_^

Guest’s Analysis - Gaddswell

*TEXT TO IMAGE REQUIRED*

In the next episode of Gaddswell: Master Predictor Extraordinaire!...

An assassin leaps from building to building!...

http://blog.wired.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/12/04/assassinscreedmidair.jpg

A graceful prince swings his sword!...

http://www.videogamesblogger.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/03/marth-unlocked.jpg

A man who chews bubble gum!...

http://www.ceramicspeed.com/images/image002.jpg

And an anthromorphic furry!?

http://killythefox.com/imagehouse/LucarioTF_full.png

Behold as these three marvellous specimens of men, as well as a dog, do battle above the rooftops!

http://img151.imageshack.us/img151/535/al08021915083binoutzd0vs3.jpg

Watch as these men partake in a contest of manly girth! Who will come out on top!

http://www.brawlsnapshots.com/snapshots/438.jpg

Can the Duke defend his title as the manliest man ever?

http://dorol.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/jeu_duke_3d_dorol.jpg

Or will he lose to one of his lithe competitors?

http://www.plunderbund.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/11/assassins-creed-20060921105332117.jpg

http://img180.imageshack.us/img180/2410/marth5kz.jpg

http://th01.deviantart.com/fs16/300W/f/2007/167/f/d/Lucario_Gijinka_Project_by_hangdok.jpg

You be the judge!

Be sure to watch!
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-34.jpg

Gaddswell predicts!

Marth - 26.15%
Duke Nukem - 25.28%
Altair - 34.10%
Lucario - 14.47%

Duke's goin' down!

(Psst, I really have no idea how this match is gonna go down. For all I know, Duke could take 1st here! Altair definitely deserves to be a favourite to advance though, after putting up 43% in round 1! And Lucario’s definitely not advancing after flopping big time in round 1! Isaac was so close to being here instead… Curse the Division of Death!)

Crew Consensus: So we got 3 on Altair > Duke (Molt, HM, Tran), 1 on Duke > Altair (Yo), 1 on Marth > Duke (Lopen), 1 on Duke > Marth (Ngamer), and 1 on Altair > Marth (Guest)

...well then

DpObliVion | Posted 10/20/2008 9:32:51 PM | message detail | #058 | filter

DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

It's the four-pack (eight-pack?) from hell! I got a whole 3 points from these two matches in the first round, and in the second....yeah, I'm getting 0 points in this match.

Anyway, of the four, Altair was the one who really impressed, but I think Duke and Marth are going to be completely robbing his advantage (unless Altair really is that popular). I'm expecting the two that advance here are the two from the first match. The next question is order, though.

Marth topped Duke in the first round match, but the opponents are different here. Marth draws nearly all of his strength from the SSB series, and he will contend with Lucario for votes in this match (although I say that SSBM is much more important than SSBB, and Marth is very popular in the series, and of course Lucario flopped). On the other hand, while Duke will contend with Altair in the mainstream vote, I have to believe that Altair will hurt Duke less than Niko.

I'm gonna go on a gut feeling here (especially since it doesn't matter because my bracket prediction won't be anything close to the real result) and put Duke on top of Marth this time around.

Don't be fooled by Altair's first round performance. His opponents sucked tremendously, and I do not expect him to advance here.

Dp's bracket says: Niko > Lucario <_<

Dp's prediction is: Duke Nukem > Marth

Confidence: 35%

Duke Nukem - 32%
Marth - 29%
Altair - 21%
Lucario - 18%

(Oh man, not the only Duke > Marth predictor....damn you, NGamer!)

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

Gaddswell | Posted 10/20/2008 9:32:59 PM | message detail | #059 | filter

Looks like I was the last one to hand my assignment in afterall!
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http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaGWrPcjb8

ZFS | Posted 10/20/2008 9:33:09 PM | message detail | #060 | filter

'consensus'

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six bullets. more than enough to kill anything that moves.

Gaddswell | Posted 10/20/2008 9:33:46 PM | message detail | #061 | filter

And I originally had Duke > Altair. Then I went with Altair > Duke.

Settled on Altair > Marth in the last 45 minutes or so.
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http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaGWrPcjb8

Ed Bellis | Posted 10/20/2008 9:34:29 PM | message detail | #062 | filter

NOT-SO-BOLD PREDICTION: the SUCKALYSIS CREW is eaten from within by their 'PROSENSUS' news at eleven
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This was KING BELLIS LOL
ed status: throw bees on everything

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/20/2008 9:35:16 PM | message detail | #063 | filter

this will be fun
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CB7 Score: 102/128
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg || http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg

Lopen | Posted 10/20/2008 9:35:53 PM | message detail | #064 | filter

Wow, I figured Altair > Marth would be the 'consensus'

I think you people are way overestimating Lucario's damage potential to Marth, here.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/20/2008 9:36:57 PM | message detail | #065 | filter

Let's hope so!
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CB7 Score: 102/128
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg || http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg

Gaddswell | Posted 10/20/2008 9:37:42 PM | message detail | #066 | filter

Go go Altair > Marth!

Of course, the best result here would be Marth > Duke!
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http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaGWrPcjb8

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/20/2008 9:38:27 PM | message detail | #067 | filter

Best result would be Lucario > Marth!

But that's not happening so let's go Someone > Marth!
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CB7 Score: 102/128
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg || http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg

Lopen | Posted 10/20/2008 9:38:42 PM | message detail | #068 | filter

By the way: I think the victor needs at least 35% on this pack to have a chance at Zack next round.

Probably not happenin. ZackFAQs reigns believe.

(I feel so dirty. Why is Zack so awesome.)
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe

DpObliVion | Posted 10/20/2008 9:39:03 PM | message detail | #069 | filter

Go Altair > Marth!

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

ZFS | Posted 10/20/2008 9:39:27 PM | message detail | #070 | filter

Best result is Altair > Duke

C'mon Altair

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six bullets. more than enough to kill anything that moves.

Lopen | Posted 10/20/2008 9:40:41 PM | message detail | #071 | filter

I'm rooting for Duke > Marth, or Altair to dominate with over 35% to make next round interesting. Any other result is lame.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe

RaeSaraneth | Posted 10/20/2008 9:41:04 PM | message detail | #072 | filter

Is it bad that I'm going along with Lopen and I've got Marth taking first? Let's do this. (Also, Moltar, I'm sorry I put a random post in the middle of your analysis block)
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^_^

BDawg | Posted 10/20/2008 9:42:23 PM | message detail | #073 | filter

Well it's nice to see wildly varying opinions. You'd hope it would be a nailbiter but it'll probably just be a beatdown and make somebody look stupid. But not the Duke he never looks stupid.
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Should I start running now?

trannyscience | Posted 10/20/2008 9:43:56 PM | message detail | #074 | filter

man even Lopen's on the Zack Train

choo choo

Marth's got a good shot here.. Lucario could really, really suck. I have no idea what to think here. thought Altair > Duke would be the heavy consensus but it's probably more like Altair > Duke/Marth >> Lucario for me.
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif

RaeSaraneth | Posted 10/20/2008 9:44:27 PM | message detail | #075 | filter

Dunno, this one's definitely a toss up. At least I picked all four of the right people to even be in this round, and I don't have Lucario on there :P
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^_^

Ngamer64 | Posted 10/20/2008 9:56:34 PM | message detail | #076 | filter

Aww, what a shame that no one went with Marth > Altair. We could have covered every possible combination!

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Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/
Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com

Gaddswell | Posted 10/20/2008 9:57:17 PM | message detail | #077 | filter

Blame one of those Altair > Duke pickers! There's 3 of them....!
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http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaGWrPcjb8

Gaddswell | Posted 10/20/2008 10:07:48 PM | message detail | #078 | filter

If Duke > Marth holds... N and Dp are the ones who come out looking great.
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http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaGWrPcjb8

DpObliVion | Posted 10/20/2008 10:09:31 PM | message detail | #079 | filter

A moral victory. Too bad my bracket is getting 0 points today.

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

DpObliVion | Posted 10/20/2008 10:10:34 PM | message detail | #080 | filter

Whoo, great update!

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

RaeSaraneth | Posted 10/20/2008 10:14:58 PM | message detail | #081 | filter

I did, Ngamer. I just didn't really figure it would end up that way anymore :D
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^_^

gamer88coool | Posted 10/21/2008 4:55:30 AM | message detail | #082 | filter

It's obvius sunglass vote>hood vote

transience | Posted 10/21/2008 5:02:40 AM | message detail | #083 | filter

nice job by yo here. clearly the star of us this year!
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xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la

Zack Fair............23.9% 33069
Wario..................10.6% 14665
Link...................53.34% 73802
Zidane Tribal...12.16% 16819
TOTAL VOTES...........138355

What Happened - Link finally looks good in a match, but the spotlight is stolen by Zack. Even with Zidane in the poll, he was able to get nearly a quarter of the vote. Black-haired Cloud, huh?

Why it Happened - Well, it looks like Zack is at least a pretty solid midcarder if he was able to do this well. Zidane and Wario just didn't stand a chance.

What Will Happen - Zack looks to be the favorite now to advance out of this division with Link.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay everyone (except KP)!

Yoblazer - 24
Ngamer - 23
Tran - 22
HM - 21
Moltar - 20
Guest - 18
Lopen - 17

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Ngamer gets the point for Link, Tran gets the point for Zack, Yo gets the point for Zidane, and Yo and HM get points for Wario

Ngamer - 26
Yoblazer - 26
HM - 23
Moltar - 22
Tran - 22
Lopen - 15
Guest (War, KP (2), Dp, Justin, greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai, Klennex, Luis, Scott, Soul) - 14
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Moltar Status: augh
Marth/Duke/Altair/Lucario - Bracket: Lucario > Niko - Vote: Lucario (103/136)

Division 2: Round 2 - Match 35 – Luigi vs. Liquid Snake vs. Bowser vs. Phoenix Wright

Moltar’s Analysis

Luigi
Round 1 - 39.68% vs. Liquid, Roxas and Sho

The man in green makes it with ease into R2

Liquid
Round 1 - 33.10% vs. Luigi, Roxas and Sho

Liquid puts up a strong performance, but is the collapse next?

Bowser
Round 1 - 45.11% vs. Phoenix, Geno and Deckard

Bowser makes a nice recovery in his match

Phoenix
Round 1 - 23.91% vs. Bowser, Geno and Deckard

No one objects to this, I presume.

Finally, a Round 2 match that I actually have in my bracket! That means I can write about what I was actually thinking when I decided the winners while making my bracket.

Originally, I thought that even though Luigi and Bowser would split votes in a similar fashion to Luigi and Ganondorf last year, they would still be able to take the Top 2 spots in the match. This is because Phoenix can ‘get outta here’ and Liquid would fail to capitalize like he did last year in Round 2, where he completely collapsed and got last place, looking awful in the process.

Now I’m going into the match thinking ‘oh geez liquid might not collapse’. He looked very good in round 1, even beating Luigi in a couple hours during the night. Bowser looked decent in his match as well, but the big question now is what happens when we put Bowser and Luigi in the poll together.

Well, let’s look at Mudkipz. When Ganondorf and Luigi split votes, Mudkip was almost able to beat Luigi, but still fell short. It goes to show that if a character isn’t strong enough to capitalize on a split, the two characters hurting each other can still get by. The only potential problem I see with this is that was a Zelda character and Mario character that split, so there was nothing extreme. With 2 Mario characters this time, that could be a completely different story. Plus, Mudkip is Nintendo as well, whereas Liquid has a completely different fanbase to draw from.

So I definitely think Liquid has a much better shot at second than before. If there is any significant SFF, I think Bowser is going to be on the receiving end of it, allowing Liquid to beat him. Still, I think Luigi and Bowser will advance, with Liquid coming in a very close third, similar to Ganon/Luigi/Mudkip.

(still rootin’ for liquid though)

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Luigi > Bowser

Moltar’s Prediction is: Luigi: 30% - Bowser: 28% - Liquid: 28% - Phoenix: 14%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Good match right here. This was always one of the more interesting matches in the bracket, if only because of Liquid's upset potential. Most assumed this would be an easy win for Luigi and Bowser, but a few voiced the possibility of Liquid pulling off an upset with MGS4 behind him. After looking at last round, I think it's hard not to have Liquid advancing in some form here, be it in first or second.

If coming within 7% of Luigi with Roxas/Sho (more likely to be a detriment for Liquid well before Luigi) hanging around wasn't enough for some, being put up against essentially three Nintendo characters should do the trick. Phoenix isn't exactly a Nintendo character, but he appeals to that same fanbase -- and his only games are on the DS. He's not much of a factor here, but if he hurts anyone, it'd be Luigi and Bowser. If you want to vote for a non-Nintendo option, Liquid's who you're going to. Can't hurt to stand out in a match.

But what I think really tips this into Liquid's favor is Luigi/Bowser SFF. I doubt we'll see either one of them SFF the other into the ground (and if they do I expect to see Liquid in second), but that splitting of the Nintendo vote is gonna hurt them. We saw it last year with Ganon and Luigi, and I'd be surprised if we don't see it again. Who comes out on top is anyone's guess, though. Based off of the past couple of years, I think Luigi's a good bet here. He held up well enough against Ganon, and Bowser has been downright unimpressive with SFF of any kind, not to mention him being unimpressive in general these past few years. There's also some Mario favorites poll, for whatever it's worth, that shows Luigi beating out Bowser, too. All signs point to Luigi.

I can't say I'd be surprised if Bowser ends up topping Luigi, though. When you're dealing with SFF, especially of the Nintendo variety, all sorts of goofy things can happen. But whatever happens with second, I think it's going to let Liquid cruise by with an easy first place. I've mentioned it plenty of times in the past, but Liquid's showing last round was up there as one of the most impressive of the round (only outdone by Big Boss and Zack). There was no reason for it to be a 'fluke' either, but we'll see.

Prediction: Liquid - 31% ; Luigi - 27% ; Bowser - 25% ; Phoenix - 17%
Vote: Liquid Snake

Yoblazer’s Analysis

Not too much to analyze on a technical level here. We've got Luigi, Bowser, Liquid Snake, and Phoenix Wright. Before the contest, Luigi and Bowser were very strong favorites. Sure, some people thought Liquid might crash the party (myself included, ahehehe), but it was admittedly difficult to bet on a guy that folded like a lawn chair when he saw decent competition last year.

Once we began rolling forth with the matches, though, people's opinions began to change. Not only did Liquid come through with an impressive overperformance in the Round 1, but Nintendo also came through by looking kinda bad. Put two and two together and you have all the makings of a huge Liquid upset, right? Right? Uhh... maybe.

Things were looking peachy for Solid's more daintily accented twin, but then he got cursed with what we all knew he was gonna get yet it still hit us like a bag of crap to the face when we saw it because it was somehow worse than any of us expected. Yes, I'm talking about Liquid Snake's match picture. Man, that thing is awful. Liquid's face is hideous. The colors are drab. The font is completely generic. The whole thing is just a sad sight.

Now, we've all seen that characters can definitely take advantage and win a match given favorable conditions (Hayabusa, Big Boss, and Duke Nukem are a few examples from this year). However, I personally think that the characters in question have to do their part and at least appeal to the voters. Those other three did that easily.
Liquid... won't be appealing to much (might be doing some more appalling, actually) with that picture. After watching Sephiroth and Tifa barely hit 75% against two pieces of fodder, I was very hesitant in giving Luigi and Bowser a combined percentage over the mid-50s. That all changed when I got a look at Liquid's ugly stupid face, though. Yes, it's that bad. He'll still be very close, as the two big Nintendo reps are about as SFF-entangled as you can get, but I expect him to miss out by a tiny bit here.

With Liquid (just barely) out of the picture, it's all up to the Big Bow and L-Dawg. Who wins the SFF battle? Heh, your guess is as good as mine. Most people have sided with Luigi, and so have I. He looked better last year and I simply like him more, so that was good enough for me; it's not like stats are you gonna do you much good in a situation like this. As for Phoenix - I'm expecting a pretty good performance outta him, actually. Like Liquid, Phoenix is also looking at a very favorable fanbase split. Unlike Liquid, he was given a picture that doesn't make me want to take a leak on my monitor.

Luigi - 30%
Liquid Snake - 26%
Bowser - 28%
Phoenix Wright - 16%

Lopen’s Analysis

This match is one that I can possibly get 8 points for, I'm so excited!

So anyway, this match, for an upset pick, is looking to be pretty straightforward to make a case for. Liquid !! came within 6% of Luigi last round. You've gotta think Bowser hurts Luigi enough for Liquid !! to overcome that. Straight Mario SFF can be vicious. Look at what happened with Bowser last year. Phoenix Wright shows hints of Nintendo alignment too based on his match with Mario last year, so he certainly can't help anything.

Speaking of Bowser. Bowser got STOMPED by Ryu last year with only Toad in the match. Yes, there was Mewtwo, but I still think Luigi > Toad + Mewtwo as far as damage goes. Unlike Toad, Luigi is pretty strong on his own. And also unlike Toad, Luigi actually soundly beats Bowser in those favorite Mario character polls.

This is why I think Luigi will defeat Bowser. Bowser either sucks with SFF, or sucks at the format. Either way, sucks to be him.

My bracket lives on... THROUGH THIS ARM. Believe.

Lopen's prediction:
Liquid !! - 30.98%
Luigi – 27.34%
Bowser – 25.34%
Phoenix Wright – 16.34%

Transience’s Analysis

this here is a funny match, and one that should tell us a lot. we get to see two closely related characters go at it, we get to see the MGS character that was most impressive again, and we get to solve who's actually more liked within the Mario fanbase.

let's start with Luigi and Bowser. once upon a time (2004), Bowser beat Yoshi easily, who beat Luigi easily. since then, though? it's been all Luigi. maybe Luigi hasn't flat-out passed Bowser, but it's looked about equal. they had equal percentages against Kirby, x-stats show them being about equal in 2006, and Luigi actually looked better last year, beating Ganondorf (thanks to some picture help, but hey) while Bowser lost to a guy he beat two years prior. Bowser seems in a bit of a slide, and they're probably equal now.

so it comes down to: who's the more preferred guy in the Mario hierarchy?

Which Mario character is your all-time favorite?
Bowser 11.2% 8609
Luigi 16.94% 13021
Mario 23.13% 17777
Princess Peach 3.7% 2844
Toad 8.47% 6509
Waluigi 2.59% 1994
Wario 6.86% 5273
Yoshi 27.1% 20830
TOTAL VOTES 76857

I've no idea how valid this poll is since Yoshi beat Mario yet again, but it's something. given that it's equal, I'll give the tentative edge to Luigi.

then there's Liquid Snake, who won entire hours against Luigi last round and will absolutely take advantage of the fanbase split. the question here: how much does the split hurt the two guys? I'm inclined to say not that much. last year, Luigi and Ganondorf were in the same poll and Yuna still finished in a distant fourth.. and Yuna rocked Liquid the round prior. now, this is clearly a different Liquid thanks to MGS4. but how much different?

after round 1's match, I thought Liquid would get first -- MGS4 looked to be a huge boost. but with Ocelot's bomb a few days ago, I'm reevaluating that. it seems weird for Liquid to be the only one to truly capitalize on MGS4. Snake didn't do all that great, Raiden got close to Master Chief but also lost updates to an FF4 character, and Big Boss is impossible to gauge thanks to the picture. I now have no idea what happened in that R1 match and am inclined to believe that it was Luigi sucking as much as Liquid doing well. as such, I've reverted to Bowser here.. and I'm going with Luigi. I don't like any of the three guys finishing in any order today.

as for Phoenix, I hope he doesn't bomb. come on, Phoenix. time for second place! haaaaaa

fanbase splits, yay! but
everyone's played Mario
so it won't matter

transience's prediction:

Bowser with 29.99%
Luigi with 28.34%
Liquid Snake with 27.44%
Phoenix Wright with 14.23%

Ngamer’s Analysis

Pretty much all the long-time Contest vets were up in arms when we found out that this year's Contest would once again be a 4-way, and I'll admit that I was just as opposed to the idea as any of them. While I still feel that we're overdue to return to 1v1s for '09, I've got to admit that occasionally this format can turn out some real gems, and these two matches are a great example. Both yesterday and for tonight you could make a strong case for any of the top three characters finishing in any position, and that's pretty amazing IMO. Speaking of the current match, I can't say too much right now, as Duke has completely fallen off the map with the ASV (the only surprising thing is that it didn't happen sooner!) and will need to recover soon to ensure Altair doesn't overtake him. The one thing I CAN say though is boy, what a disappointment from Marth! You're a two-time SSB veteran, how are you letting a guy who got owned that hard last round hang around in this one? Bah, I guess the D/P generation of Pokemon isn't as pathetically weak as we all thought a few weeks back.

Anyways, tonight's got me flustered big time. Let's get right into it before I lose my nerve!

R1 X-Stat Performances
Luigi - 26.30% (based on '07 Roxas)
Liquid Snake - 23.92% (based on '07 Roxas)
Bowser - 28.29% (based on '07 Geno)
Phoenix Wright - 19.60% (based on '07 Geno)

Just looking that over, the King of the Koopas would appear to be a clear favorite for the advancement in this one. BUT, I'm of the opinion that he overperfomed last round due to pretty much perfect placement- his status near the top of the Nintendo food chain allowed him to SFF down PW and Geno's percentage, while Cain looked like a generic old man from some RPG and couldn't take advantage of the split. He should still do well for himself in this one, and Phoenix should once again get his head handed to him beyond the first 15 minutes, but I don't see him finishing in the top two because...

Luigi's even higher on that N food chain! Or at least, that's what Mario favorite polls and the last few years of Contest results would have us believe. Personally I'm not as sold on Luigi > Bowser in this format as most others seem to be... sure the guy squeezed by Ganon, but he needed every advantage in the book to do so. Today the tables have turned somewhat and it's BOWSER who looks flat out awesome in the match pic, so even though I'm still sticking with a Luigi win, I bet Bowser keeps it closer than you might expect.

As for Liquid... ack! I was all set on Ocelot coming out guns blazing the other day to prove the MGS4 boost beyond a doubt with a great showing on Kratos. Then it would have been easy for me to pick against the Big Boss-like three way Nintendo split and have Liquid stand out like a sore thumb right into an easy first place finish. But then... Ocelot crashed and burned big time. And now I'm remembering how the last time I put faith in Liquid he likewise made a total fool of himself against Lavos and then Sephiroth. And NOW I'm checking out this match pic, and Liquid looks like such a tool! Seriously, ugh, could someone please create some decent artwork for this guy some day?

Soooo with Nintendo not performing up to standards to this point, Phoenix being there to further hold down the Mario guys, and MGS having at least a decent show of it so far, I'm afraid I can no longer stick with my bracket and the Luigi > Bowser I picked here. However I refuse to be burned by MGS faith yet again, and so I'm stubbornly not moving from the Luigi side of that prediction. Here's hoping for an awesome fatal three-way tonight! Let's stir the pot and bring out...

Luigi - 29.39%
Liquid Snake - 29.20%
Bowser - 28.29%
Phoenix Wright - 13.11%

That looks... like it's not going to happen! But dang it, I tried my best.

Guest’s Analysis - LeonhartFour

Luigi

Luigi was one of the few Brawl characters not to be a big disappointment in the first round. He didn’t look great, but he did about what he was expected to do, which was more than you could say for most of Nintendo in the first round. He’s in a tough position here. Luigi has to deal with an LFF split with Bowser, who has always been perceived as being stronger than him. However, is that really the case? I think a lot of Bowser’s perceived strength comes from beating Yoshi in 2003 (the same Yoshi who beat Luigi in 2004, by the way) and from his 2005 contest performances. However, you can throw out anything from before 2005 because of the site demographic shift. Yes, the shift was toward Nintendo, but that doesn’t mean that preferences within the Nintendo hierarchy couldn’t have changed. Plus, it’s looking more and more like Bowser’s 2005 performance was Villains Contest fueled. He hasn’t looked as good since. And while I’m treading on dangerous ground, Luigi has beaten Bowser in the multiway Favorite Mario Character polls in the past. Plus, he stood up well to Ganondorf in round 2 and beat him outright in round 3 (with a little help from Bacondorf). At the very least, Luigi won’t get destroyed, but will he win?

Liquid Snake

Forget NintendoFAQs. This is the year of MGS4FAQs, folks! Liquid looked awfully good in round 1, hanging tough with Luigi overnight and staying within 7% overall by the time was all said and done. He smoked Roxas and left him in the dust as well. The fact that he stayed that close to Luigi means Liquid’s lookin’ good to capitalize on a Nintendo LFF split here. There’s virtually no doubt that Bowser is going to split with Luigi, and probably by a good amount. After all, they’re from the same series and they’re relatively close in strength. Liquid has a great chance of moving on to the third round, and he’s got a good shot at taking first place to boot.

Bowser

After last year’s contest, people were concerned that the King of Koopas was losing his touch. Early in his first round match, those doubts seemed to be confirmed. Through the night, he was barely getting 40% on a pretty weak fourpack, but he made a very good comeback with the day vote to turn a bad performance into a good one. Still, it wasn’t a great performance. Bowser only did about 5% better than Luigi, and his fourpack was obviously not that strong. Plus, he didn’t seem to handle LFF that well last year either, letting Mewtwo get a wee bit too close to him for my liking. That’s not to say he doesn’t have a great shot at advancing. Really, until Luigi beats him outright, Bowser should probably be considered the favorite. He’s got the stronger overall history, even if his recent history hasn’t been all that great.

Phoenix Wright

I hate to say Phoenix Wright is a nonfactor in this, but…well, he is. 10-15% is all he’s going to manage here, especially since I think he’s actually prone to getting SFF’d by Nintendo a bit (which could help Liquid out some more, incidentally). The fact that Nick is here at all is good enough for most of his fans though, so they won’t be disappointed by him getting fourth place, I think. I hope he surprises me and does better than I’m expecting though.

Solid’s Other Half
Claws Ahead Here
Through Other Arm

Luigi - 28.56%
Liquid Snake - 30.30%
Bowser - 27.77%
Phoenix Wright - 13.37%

Crew Consensus: Luigi > Bowser has 2 (Molt, Yo), Liquid > Luigi has 3 (HM, Lopen, Guest), Bowser > Luigi has Tran, and Luigi > Liquid has Ngamer

...well then

DpObliVion | Posted 10/21/2008 8:49:51 PM | message detail | #091 | filter

Not helping the mess of a consensus any.....

DpOblivion's Unofficial Not-So-Quick Analysis:

This match may be a case of I couldn't figure this out, so I just threw in a result and didn't bother thinking it through. As a result, I wouldn't be surprised to wind up with half- or even quarter-credit here. Although I suppose I could still have hope. It all comes down to SFF, of course....

The Guru majority is Luigi > Bowser, which is my first concern, as I have Bowser ahead of Luigi. Hero > Villain is the rule, but what about Sidekick vs. Villain? Obviously Mario would kill Bowser, but I think casual fans may be slightly more inclined to throw their support behind the badass villain than the "meh" sidekick.

My second problem is that I have neither of these characters taking first in this poll. According to the Gurus, Liquid Snake is expected to take third here, yet I have him in first.

I think the SFF between Luigi and Bowser could be fairly close to a 50-50 split. Phoenix Wright will have a devoted voterbase of at least 15-20%, and it's much more likely that he would be taking votes from Luigi/Bowser than Liquid. Liquid himself should also receive a strong devoted MGS vote.

Will it be enough to put Liquid in first? Even a split Nintendo vote may be enough. I guess it depends how much Nintendo will get in this poll against MGS and Phoenix Wright.

I don't know.

Dp's bracket says: Liquid Snake > Bowser

Dp's prediction is: Liquid Snake > Bowser

Confidence: 0%

Liquid Snake - 28%
Bowser - 27%
Luigi - 25%
Phoenix Wright - 19%

Dp's safer prediction with no bias for my bracket: Luigi > Liquid Snake

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

trannyscience | Posted 10/21/2008 9:01:50 PM | message detail | #092 | filter

aww yeah here comes a mess
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif

Ed Bellis | Posted 10/21/2008 9:02:23 PM | message detail | #093 | filter

i see liquid over bowser will be happening in short time
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This was KING BELLIS LOL
ed status: throw bees on everything

KamikazePotato | Posted 10/21/2008 9:03:03 PM | message detail | #094 | filter

So everyone has Luigi advancing? That's a mess waiting to happen.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10

DpObliVion | Posted 10/21/2008 9:03:56 PM | message detail | #095 | filter

I don't, whoo!

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/21/2008 9:06:29 PM | message detail | #096 | filter

I personally prefer Luigi here, since Bowser has disappointed ever since 2005. In fact, the "I FEEL ASLEEP!" was likely Bowser's and not Snake's, and he has yet to recover from it.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM

Lopen | Posted 10/21/2008 9:51:59 PM | message detail | #097 | filter

Lopen's new analysis

http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-35.jpg

...

Hahahahahahaha what the crap Liquid.

Lopen's new prediction:
Luigi - 35%
Bowser - 30%
Phoenix Wright - 25%
Liquid Snake - 15%

(no don't count that, but confidence - a billion)
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe

RaeSaraneth | Posted 10/21/2008 10:20:00 PM | message detail | #098 | filter

I have Liquid>Bowser... That was probably a bad choice. Also, I like how confident Dp is :D
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^_^

Tatl | Posted 10/22/2008 7:20:34 AM | message detail | #099 | filter

BOWSER!!!

NOOOOO!!!!

*Cries for the Koopa King*
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Score as of 10/21: 104
Bracket: Bowser > Luigi - Biggest Flop: Ryu > Metaknight

voltch | Posted 10/22/2008 8:10:19 AM | message detail | #100 | filter

geez,so far the crew's been getting burned a lot during this contest.
methinks next year bowser will end up getting severly underestimated.
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!

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