GameFAQs Contests

Character Battle VII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 10/18/2008 9:57:53 PM | message detail | #001 | filter

The "back to the trainwreck called division 1" Edition

Welcome to the 40th annual Contest Analysis Crew topic! We thank you for sticking with us over the years.

Okay, so it isn't that old, but we've been going strong since Spring 2004, and another four-way contest won't stop us now!

For those who are new here, the Contest Analysis Crew (or The Crew, or AC, whatever you want to call us) is a group of users who know how these Contests work. Our duty is to analyze each match and predict who will win each match and the percentages each character will get. We might not be 100% right, but then again, who is?

So, it's time for me to find my Crew members. In order to build a strong Crew, I'm going to have to travel across the whole land!

My name is Master Moltar, the self-proclaimed leader of the Crew!

*after 30 minutes of dialogue skipping and random running around*

Moltar: Hey, it's my good friend Heroic Mario. We've known each other for years, and-

HM: You want me on your Crew? Sure!

Random person: Hey, there's trouble in the next town!

*an hour later*

Moltar: We got here too late, darn it!

Yoblazer: When I find out who did this, they'll pay for ruining my village! My name is Yoblazer btw.

Moltar: So your name is Yoblazer. Didn't you win a contest a while back? How about you join my Crew.

Yoblazer: Okay!

*3 hours later*

Lopen: Look at me, I'm Lopen, a bad guy who's going to steal your money to help save my dying sibling!

Moltar: No, join my crew instead Lopen, you who likes to make those crazy upset picks.

Lopen: Okay I'll forget about my bitter past and look forward to a bright future with my new friends!

*10 hours later*

Moltar: So we've traveled across nearly the whole continent, but I don't think my partner is big enough.

Tran: 5 people is plenty!

Moltar: 5...wait, how long have you been here, Transience, he who joined for the CB6 Crew?

Yoblazer: He popped up around 7 hours ago.

Lopen: Yeah, he and HM just keep going back and forth

HM: zack zack zack

Tran: tim tim tim

*20 hours later*

Moltar: So we're almost at the end of journey and-

Ngamer: Wait, I want to come along.

Moltar: Ngamer? The mysterious figure from my past who was hinted at through various dream sequences? You've never been on a Crew before!

Ngamer: I'm ready to learn.

*10 hours later right before the final boss*

Moltar: Well then, I guess our Crew is complete!

???: Not yet!

Moltar: Why look, it's everyone from my hometown. I guess I can pick one Guest to join me on the Crew from the upcoming challenges! Here's who I plan to pick so far.

Zack/Wario/Link/Zidane - KamikazePotato
Marth/Duke/Altair/Lucario - Gaddswell

Luigi/Liquid/Bowser/Phoenix - LeonhartFour
Mario/Zelda/MMX/Mudkip - Ed Bellis

Samus/Nightmare/Ganondorf/Frog - Luis
Vincent/Falco/Scorpion/Gordon - Soul

Crono/Ammy/L/Ryu - Luster
Alucard/Falcon/Pikachu/Arthas - War

E-mail: mastermoltar@gmail.com

Past Topics: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/9 (newer topics should be on the B8Wiki when Ngamer gets around to it)
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Moltar Status: augh
Heavy/Jill/Kratos/Ocelot - Bracket: Kratos > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot (97/124)

DpObliVion | Posted 10/18/2008 9:59:34 PM | message detail | #002 | filter

DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

Today's match should be pretty straightforward. The highly mainstream Sony badass Kratos should take first here with ease, while Heavy shouldn't even come close to MGS and RE characters Ocelot and Jill, respectively. And when it comes down to it, give me the MGS character over the RE character any day. Even if Ocelot has been known to fail a bit, Jill isn't one to capitalize.

Dp's bracket says: Kratos > Ocelot

Dp's prediction is: Kratos > Ocelot

Confidence: 90%

Kratos - 36%
Ocelot - 27%
Jill - 22%
Heavy - 15%

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

transience | Posted 10/18/2008 10:28:14 PM | message detail | #003 | filter

well then
---
xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la

you're pretty good

jill
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Moltar Status: augh
Heavy/Jill/Kratos/Ocelot - Bracket: Kratos > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot (97/124)

Tatl | Posted 10/19/2008 12:46:03 AM | message detail | #005 | filter

I can't decide it I want to sign up for Sonic vs Sandbag vs Auron vs Sub-Zero or Cloud vs Midna vs Mewtwo vs Pac-Man more........

>_>
<_<

-_-

Decision, decisions...
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Bracket Score as of 10/119: 94
Today's Pick: Kratos > Ocelot - Biggest Flop: Ryu > Metaknight

Ngamer64 | Posted 10/19/2008 1:04:13 AM | message detail | #006 | filter

90% confidence on that one? Ouch!

(I get to be cocky because my own even worse pred is back in the other topic where no one will ever see it!)

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Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/
Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com

-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/19/2008 1:34:05 AM | message detail | #007 | filter

Oh yes, I was laughing hard when Soul chose the Heavy > Ocelot upset.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~

-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/19/2008 2:15:47 AM | message detail | #008 | filter

Crono/Ammy/L/Ryu - Luster

Just to note, I wish to be credited as "Luster Soldier" for the write-up I do on my match. That's the username I'd like to see in the post containing my analysis.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/19/2008 2:17:28 AM | message detail | #009 | filter

grr
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CB7 Score: 100/124
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg || http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg

-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/19/2008 2:26:33 AM | message detail | #010 | filter

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/19/2008 2:26:48 AM | message detail | #011 | filter

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/19/2008 4:17:28 AM | message detail
grr

You can have that Raiden match that you called back in the sign-up topic. I'm not interested in that one.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/19/2008 2:39:06 AM | message detail | #012 | filter

grr
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CB7 Score: 100/124
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg || http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg

Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/19/2008 2:40:46 AM | message detail | #013 | filter

If it's not to early or to late I want to sign up as the guest on Sandbag/Sonic/Auron/Sub-Zero
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me

Nana......................10.35% 13657
Ratchet.................13.93% 18377
Sephiroth.............47.23% 62298
Tifa Lockheart.....28.49% 37583
TOTAL VOTES.................131915

What Happened - Seph looked pretty bad early in the match, but he was able to separate himself enough from Tifa to look alright. Still, a Top 3 character unable to break 50% on a fourpack like this? Only Seph...

Why it Happened - Tifa looks to have resisted SFF better than most expected. This could be because the competition was so weak, that people decided to vote Tifa out of apathy. With stronger competition next round, Tifa may not hold up so well.

What Will Happen - This match shows that Tifa may hold up in Round 2. If she manages to do the same, she has a good shot at advancing.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay everyone!

Yoblazer - 23
Ngamer - 22
Tran - 21
HM - 20
Moltar - 19
Guest - 18
Lopen - 16

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Tran and Ngamer get the point for Seph, Scott gets the point for Tifa, Tran gets the point for Ratchet, and Moltar and HM get points for Nana

Ngamer - 25
Yoblazer - 23
Moltar - 22
HM - 21
Tran - 20
Lopen - 15
Guest (War, KP (2), Dp, Justin, greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai, Klennex, Luis, Scott) - 13
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Moltar Status: augh
Heavy/Jill/Kratos/Ocelot - Bracket: Kratos > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot (97/124)

DpObliVion | Posted 10/19/2008 10:25:51 AM | message detail | #015 | filter

Ocelot sucks.

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

Crossing_Justin | Posted 10/19/2008 10:28:12 AM | message detail | #016 | filter

Moltar, would you mind if I put dibs on Leon/Riku/Dante/Hogger?
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Justin's CB Points: 104 | Points After this Round: 106
Today: Kratos > Ocelot | Tomorrow: Link > Zack

FantasyFreak999 | Posted 10/19/2008 12:48:25 PM | message detail | #017 | filter

tagging
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"Run, run, or you'll be well done!"
~Kefka, Final Fantasy 6~

KamikazePotato | Posted 10/19/2008 8:27:04 PM | message detail | #018 | filter

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10

Steiner | Posted 10/19/2008 8:41:40 PM | message detail | #019 | filter

let's go zack
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"The arguments I've seen for this one range from 'what' to 'well then.' " - Heroic Mario on L-Block

Division 1: Round 2 - Match 33 – Zack Fair vs. Wario vs. Link vs. Zidane Tribal

Moltar’s Analysis

Zack
Round 1 - 44.64% vs. Wario, Cecil and Jade

Black-haired Cloud confirmed

Wario
Round 1 - 33.09% vs. Zack, Cecil and Jade

Wario does a bit worse that most expected

Link
Round 1 - 60.72% vs. Zidane, Shadow and Luke

What is this only average blowout. I’m disappointed, Link.

Zidane
Round 1 - 17.49% vs. Link, Shadow and Luke

Steals Shadow’s spot in Round 2. I can never forgive him.

Ugh, this division again. Well, after getting every match here in Round 1 wrong, and now that it’s impossible for me to get full points on any remaining match in this division, maybe I can turn my luck around with these analyses.

In Round 1, Zack beat Wario harder than most expected. This could be because no one really cares for Wario, or it could be that Zack has some legit strength behind him. I’m thinking a little of column A and a little of column B.

As for Link and Zidane, well, Zidane held up better in his fourpack than most expected. He only dropped about 1.5% from Alucard/Liquid/Ness to Link/Shadow/Luke. Sure, it still took a SFFed Shadow for him to get by, but it’s still a bit impressive considering Zidane has done nothing praise-worthy before.

So that leads us to this match right here. Link obviously takes first, and with Wario being his only Nintendo competition, expect Link to dominate again. Wario will end up looking really bad too, I mean, really, who WANTS to vote for Wario? eww

As for second, there’s some talk going on that Zidane could take it. I mean, it’s possible if it turns out that Zack beat an uber-weak Wario. Still, I’m not banking on that. I think Zack got some legitimate midcard strength on him. Plus, he’s FF7, and between FF7 and FF9 SFF, I’m siding with the 7. I doubted the black-haired cloud last time, but since the tide has turned, I’ll go with him here.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Link > Shadow (augh zidane)

Moltar’s Prediction is: Link: 52% - Zack: 23% - Zidane: 16% - Wario: 9%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

I'm glad we're getting this match out of the way early. Ever since Zidane won, there's been some bad arguments from both sides about who wins and why. It's hard to keep arguing this match because it all relies on a couple of things -- how does SFF play out and does Zidane's 'core fanbase' give him the edge with Link sucking up over half the votes.

It wouldn't surprise me if both were in Zidane's favor, but I'm thinking SFF favors Zack (FFVII vs. FFIX) and in terms of 'devoted fanbases' it's hard to argue against FFVII. Some will say that Zack doesn't have any hardcore fans, but given how many Zack fans are on the board, I'm not buyin' it. And there not being much percentage to go around should make Crisis Core a bigger factor -- if he's got a lot of core fans, this would be where they came from.

There is some concern about how many FFVII fans will abandon Zack for Link here, though. Zack's pic, while probably the best in the match with Zidane's, doesn't look nearly as good as it did in round 1, with the Buster Sword prominently displayed. I doubted it would matter before, but seeing his pic this round makes me wonder. He did have a killer pic advantage there.

Zidane supporters can make a solid argument for taking him here (not the least of which is a random FF9 boost from round 1 Snake for champion confirmed!!), but I still like Zack to take it easy. Zack has a fanbase, that much is certain -- you don't score 44% in a match entirely on apathy. SFF is a bit concerning, but the Square fanbase is more likely to side with a NPC from FFVII than a FFIX, I would think. And ultimately, this is Zidane -- he's not some paragon of strength, and most would agree he wouldn't match Zack's showing in round 1. Says it all to me.

We'll see how this goes.

Prediction: Link - 51% ; Zack - 22%; Zidane - 17% ; Wario - 10%
Vote: Zack

Yoblazer’s Analysis

Woohoo, we've finally reached the halfway point! First rounds are always a bit of a chore to get through, but we'll all be delighted to know that the next month is where the real action is. It will go by a lot faster, and we'll be witnessing stronger, more proven characters go at it (although you wouldn't completely think so judging by who's in this match). Anyway, kicking off the contest's second half are Zack Fair, Link, Wario, and Zidane. After what we've seen, this looks like one of Round 2's easier matches, so let's bask in the calmness before we get our asses collectively skewered in the upcoming days and weeks.

First and fourth place couldn't be any more obvious. There's Link, he kicks ass, he's made a career out of crushing opponents like these, and he'll do it yet again. Annoyingly for the Hylian Hammer, he's gotten one of his worst pictures ever, so expect an underperformance. It shouldn't mean much, but it may add some fuel to the Cloud > Link fire (is it me, or is that fire always in desperate need of fuel?). On the other end of the spectrum is Wario. Wario already hurt most of our brackets a month ago, and he'll now be punished for it by being fed to the meanest SFF machine ever. I would have probably given Wario under 10% in normal circumstances, but his picture actually ain't bad, and I must stress once again that Link's is uncharacteristically awful.

Ushering the Nintendo guys aside, it's the Final Fantasy representatives who account for what little intrigue lies here. Zack and Zidane were both very impressive in Round 1, and this has led a few wayward souls to argue that the battle between them may be close. Personally, I'm not sure why.

Yes, Zidane beat (an SFF'd) Shadow, but Zack earned 44.6% in his match. Could you guys imagine Zidane netting 44.6% in any fourway match? Unless he's up against that von Fabre guy and a duo of Tanners, I can't. Even if you argue that Link functions as a massive percentage vacuum and completely changes the match dynamics, Zidane still doesn't have much of a chance. Zack Fair is from Final Fantasy VII. If you're from one of the lesser FF titles and your name isn't Squall or Auron, you will be SFF'd by anything from FFVII. That optional character. That enemy. That one chair in the corner. ANYTHING from FFVII will SFF you. Zidane is about to learn this firsthand, and it won't be pretty.

But it will be funny! hail ZackFAQs

Zack Fair - 25%
Wario - 10%
Link - 50%
Zidane - 15%

Lopen’s Analysis

So, a few weeks ago, I thought Zidane was going to win second here. Obviously, Wario was to be counted out due to ol' Chmofsky destroying him with some of the Nintendo SFF. And I figured that while Black Haired Cloud DID manage well over 40% in his match, it was mostly due to people utterly not caring about his opponents, and once Link was there (and Zidane, who does have a fanbase, even if it is small) his percentage would plummet.

Then, some... weird things happened. First Kain just looks really good in his match. I mean, even if you assume (bad idea!) that MC has dropped all the way back to 2006 levels, Kain still did way better than one should expect after seeing Cecil. Meanwhile, ~The Goddess Rydia~ backs him up and says "that was no fluke" by outdoing Cecil's percentage against much stronger competition.

So what does that mean as it relates to this match? It means that while I utterly don't understand it, Zack has a legit fanbase, and that fanbase must have SFFed Cecil. Maybe I underestimated the number of people on this site who've gotten around to playing Crisis Core? I don't know. If Zack can SFF Cecil (though to be fair, Cecil's name being "Harvey" probably didn't do him any favors... I swear when GameFAQers started calling him that I was like "is that a fanmade name") that bad, he can probably SFF Zidane too. I do think Zack does a lot worse here than should be expected from his performance last round, but given that Zidane didn't have much percentage to work with in the first place, Zack should win.

Though I certainly do understand why the people who've actually played Crisis Core love them some Zack. After about 15 hours into the game, I am now a convert to ZackFAQs, and will be pulling for him here. Go Zack, go!

Lopen's prediction:
Chmofsky – 55.62%
ZackFAQs – 18.83%
Zidane – 16.03%
Wario – 9.52%

Transience’s Analysis

round 2! the contest is officially half over. the first round always lasts forever, but from here the thing just flies. now that all the weakass fodder has been mostly removed, we've got Real Matches and data on everyone, so it's a lot more interesting to analyze.

now then...

IIIII AM ZACK FAIR
I'M CLOUDDDDDDDDD WITH BLACK HAIR

Zack is the clear favourite here, having put up a big percentage on a well-known (though not well-liked) Mario character and two other RPG guys, one of which shares the same series as him. everything we've seen over the last month has pointed to Zack being pretty good - two FF4 characters surpassed expectations, mostly because Zack set the bar so low after he murdered Cecil. characters have struggled to get big percentages, but Zack put up almost 45%. strength-wise, you have to put him above Zidane.

there are four arguments against Zack, and they're all kind of weak, but still notable:

1.) Zack had a fourpack of suck - who cares about Wario, Cecil is the definition of bland, and BUSTER SWORD HOLY CRAP VOTE VOTE VOTE. now he's going up against the strongest character of all time. how strong is the Zack fanbase?

2.) FF9 has looked good this year - MGS4 looks to be the real deal, but Vivi still put up a hell of a show on Snake, and Zidane impressed everyone with his win over Shadow. (it was impressive enough that people are screaming SFF. hmm.) if there is some odd FF9 boost this year and the characters are finally getting the respect they deserve, Zidane may be pretty darn good.

3.) Zack is a fairly (ha ha) unknown quantity to GameFAQs - yes, he's FF7, but who the hell is Zack Fair when he doesn't have a cool picture that says "yes, I'm the FF7 Guy"? no sword, half a face shot, that generic name. no SOLDIER gear, no buster sword, no FF7 style. just a half a face. if there's a recognizability issue, it will really hurt Zack.

4.) where will the Final Fantasy fanbase side? with the FF7 NPC / PSP character, or the FF9 main? yes, FF7 is obviously stronger than FF9, but how much does his role matter?

the answers to all these may push someone towards Zidane, and I can see why they'd think that way, but it's hopeful thinking at best. Zack just dropped 45% on a fourpack. Mewtwo couldn't do that and it was all Nintendo and Pac-Man. Mega Man had a weaker pack and could only get 51%. the only time the Final Fantasy pecking order has been upset, to my knowledge, was Squall vs. Aeris vs. Sora last year. I'm not calling for an FF9 character to top an FF7 one. Vivi, maybe, but not Zidane.

I'd like to, though! I like seeing Zidane do well. these are two of the three FF mains that I really like (Cloud being the third) so I can't be too bothered either way.

DISSIDIA BOOST
ZIDANE OWNS FF7
I wish this were true

transience's prediction:

Link with 50.67%
Zack with 24.35%
Zidane with 16.43%
Wario with 8.55%

Ngamer’s Analysis

Haha, now that's more like it! Jill over Ocelot in convincing fashion only 12 months after we'd seen Ocelot over Jill in convincing fasion- and this despite all evidence and common sense pointing to the contrary. Results like this are exactly what makes these Contests so enjoyable! I guess there's a couple ways to puzzle this upset out... did the combined FF7 might of Cloud and Zolom suck up so much of the casual vote that Jill was ruined while Ocelot's more hardcore fanbase won out? Did Kratos kill Ocelot by being the bigger PS2/3 star, while Jill escaped by still having RE's GameCube appeal to fall back on? Have we just underestimated the impact of Umbrella Chronicles, and perhaps the series-wide RE boost has more to do with UC than it does RE5 hype? Plenty of questions, so its a good thing Leon and Jill will be involved in very interesting R2 matchups and will hopefully yield some answers.

For tonight... oh shoot! I'm working on this Excel sheet with everyone's R1 results and preliminary x-stats that I wanted to break out starting tonight, but I don't have it handy at the moment. Guess I'll just have to wing it for this one and get that sheet rolling tomorrow night... but yeah, there's going to be a new format to my writeups starting soon. But for now, old format a'hoy!

Last Known Values:
Link - 59.90% (2007)
Wario - 17.68% (2007)
Zack - new
Zidane - 15.71% (2007)

I heard all the arguments for Zidane that were being tossed around in Stats last night- his fanbase is more hardcore than Zack's, that gives him the advantage when facing casual vote eating machine Link, or else maybe Zack was all Buster Sword last round and without it he'll come back down to earth. Eh, reasonable points, but Zack blew me away too much to give that upset any real consideration, sorry. ESPECIALLY after seeing what Rydia and Kain have been worth- even assuming Cecil's naturally the weakest of the three, it's got to take some serious appeal to pound FF4 anything into the ground like that this season. Zidane should have a decent enough showing, but I would be very surprised if he was ever in serious contention for advancement here.

As for the Nintendo side of this poll, there isn't really that much to say. Link ought to serve notice that he's still the class of the NN while owning Wario so hard that he'll never come within two miles of third place- not that he would have even outside of an SFF situation. As to where exactly Link falls, that's tough to say... but the 50% ballpark that most seem to be crediting him with seems about right.

So Link >> Zack > Zidane >> Wario ought to result in something along the lines of...

Link - 52.91%
Zack Fair - 20.94%
Zidane Tribal - 16.16%
Wario - 9.99%

Bah, just can't justify Zack any higher, not with Zidane in the mix limiting his appeal... Oh well, come on BusterSwordFAQs!

Ngamer Says: Link > Zack

Guest’s Analysis - KamikazePotato

KP's Analysis
Match 33: Zack vs. Wario vs. Link vs. Zidane

When I picked Zidane to go the Quarterfinals, I figured on the slim chance that it actually worked that R2 would be a lock if Zidane beat Shadow. After all, Wario would be crushed by Link, and Zack? He was going to flop, obviously. I mean, come on, he barely gets any screentime, he's the main character of a PSP game...what could he do?

Well, this bracket has made fools of everybody. Still, I believe that Zidane is going to beat out Zack, for several reasons. First, let's look at Wario. People favored him over Zack because of Cecil LFFing a little and a Brawl boost on the way. Zack proceeded to embarrass Wario and make himself look great in the process...however, this was back when we thought Nintendo wasn't a step below what it usually is this contest. So far Brawl has only boosted Ike and Meta-Knight, and they were the two who were absolutely going to get boosted.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3261&num=4
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3258&num=4

Olimar and Diddy proved that you're only getting boosts if the Brawl fanbase really favors you, and Wario is even lower on the SSB totem pole than they are, both casually and competitively. When it comes down to it, Wario probably didn't boost at all from last year. Zack still impressed, but the it looks a lot less impressive when you realize how pathetic Wario truly is.

I also have a theory that Zack overperformed in that match because of - bear with me - his match pic. More specifically, the airplane wing on his back.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb7/cb7-01.jpg

Come on, you can't not stick the Buster Sword on someone (or any sword, really) and not expect them to do better. Especially when a casual's other options are Androgynous Male, Even More Andrgynous Male, and Wario. The badass casual vote all went to Zack, and with Link in this poll and this round being face shots, he's not going to have it anymore.

I also don't buy into Cecil LFFing Zack. There was a little, but Old Square is very separate from New Square.

Onto Zidane. Really, this guy shouldn't even be in it. He got destroyed by Crono and got 19% in his match last year. How does he go from that to beating out Shadow and possibly Zack? Well, Shadow was probably SFFd some, but I have a different theory.

First, he has a dedicated fanbase. It doesn't help characters often, but when Link is in the poll and munching on all the casual votes... It's the only explanation I can think of for getting 19% on Alucard/Liquid/Ness and then 18% on Link/Shadow/Luke. It also helpes explain Vivi apparently not being SFFd by Sephiroth back in 2005. The second is simply the pic factor; Dissidia>that fugly FFIX concept art.

Zack, on the other hand, does not have a dedicated fanbase. Not as much, anyway. He simply doesn't get enough screentime in FF7, and Crisis Core is not that popular. I doubt he gets any serious backing from the FF7 voting block.

It's an interesting setup. On one hand, it's the main character of FFIX versus a side character from FFVII. On the other hand, it's the main character of FFIX versus a side character from FFVII. Some people are calling for Zack's FF7 pedigree to SFF Zidane into the ground, but if Vivi managed to not get SFFd by Sephiroth back in 2k5, I doubt Zack is going to fare any better. I think Zidane has it in him. The Z in GameZAQs can stand for another character, you know...

Oh, forgot to talk about Link. Uhhh Nintendo decrease, still gonna dominate, LFF with Wario so maybe not as much as last match.

KP's Bracket: Zidane. Pity, because even if this works I called nearly every other upset wrong.
KP's Vote: Who do you think?

KP's Prediction:
Link: 57%
Zidane: 17.2%
Zack: 16.8%
Wario: 9%

Crew Consensus: Link > Zack, but KP is hoping lightning strikes twice.

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/19/2008 8:51:01 PM | message detail | #025 | filter

transience stealing my zack song
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CB7 Score: 100/124
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg || http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg

transience | Posted 10/19/2008 8:52:01 PM | message detail | #026 | filter

hells yes

I thought about making a whole song out of it but I cannot compete with YOU JUST GOT PWNED F T W
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xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la

ZFS | Posted 10/19/2008 8:53:03 PM | message detail | #027 | filter

lopen converted

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six bullets. more than enough to kill anything that moves.

DpObliVion | Posted 10/19/2008 8:53:18 PM | message detail | #028 | filter

DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

A bit of a rough first round comes to an end, fittingly with a half-credit match that will stop me just short of breaking triple digits in total points before heading on to the second round. Ugh....

Anyway, Round 2 should start with a fairly obvious one, although even the obvious ones seem questionable at this point. But there really is nothing to even try to suggest that any result other than Link > Zack could happen.

Link in first needs no explanation, and Wario will get his ass kicked in SFF so he's not even a consideration (seriously, who the hell votes for Wario if there's another Nintendo option). And I'll be damned if a FFIX character gets the better end of SFF with a FFVII character, whether black-haired Cloud overperforms or underperforms.

Only question is if Link SFFs Wario enough to drop him to last, which I think it will, as the SFF between Zack and Zidane should be quite a bit closer.

Dp's bracket says: Link > Zack

Dp's prediction is: Link > Zack

Confidence: 100%

Link - 53%
Zack - 23%
Zidane - 13%
Wario - 11%

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/19/2008 8:53:57 PM | message detail | #029 | filter

who's ready for wario to shock the world and take 2nd today
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CB7 Score: 100/124
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg || http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg

ZFS | Posted 10/19/2008 8:55:29 PM | message detail | #030 | filter

wario land shake it boost

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six bullets. more than enough to kill anything that moves.

Ed Bellis | Posted 10/19/2008 8:55:45 PM | message detail | #031 | filter

curse you yoblazer stealin my percentages

just another notch on the TYRANNY BELT OF THE FAILALYSIS CREW
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This was KING BELLIS LOL
ed status: throw bees on everything

KamikazePotato | Posted 10/19/2008 8:57:08 PM | message detail | #032 | filter

Prepare to be embarrassed, Analysis Crew! Zidane will reign over your brackets like a niche RPG lead god!

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10

wa wa wario
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Moltar Status: augh
Zack/Wario/Link/Zidane - Bracket: Link > Shadow - Vote: Link (99/128)

DpObliVion | Posted 10/19/2008 8:59:00 PM | message detail | #034 | filter

Silly KP.

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008

transience | Posted 10/20/2008 4:01:10 AM | message detail | #035 | filter

that wasn't even a logical pick, more like an "I hope so" pick

which, to be fair, is kinda what he did in R1 as well and he got that one right
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xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la

Heavy........................12.89% 17608
Jill Valentine...............25.7% 35124
Kratos........................37.19% 50814
Revolver Ocelot........24.22% 33099
TOTAL VOTES......................136645

What Happened - Well this is a surprise. Yeah, Kratos took first and Heavy took last, but look at Ocelot and Jill! Even after receiving MGS4, Ocelot lost to her. This is especially weird because last year, he beat Jill! So by receiving one of the biggest games of the year...he loses?

Why it Happened - Most logical reasoning I've seen for the result is that last year, with Cloud sucking up much of the vote, Ocelot beat Jill due to the hardcore MGS fans. Now that Cloud isn't here, Jill had much more voters to pull from. Still, Cloud held Jill back enough to beat a boosted Ocelot? And Kratos is another popular Sony figure, so his presence didn't hurt Jill as well? This is probably the strangest result of Round 1.

What Will Happen - Seph/Tifa/Kratos/Jill...I'm liking Kratos's chances a bit more for R3.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay no one!

Yoblazer - 23
Ngamer - 22
Tran - 21
HM - 20
Moltar - 19
Guest - 18
Lopen - 16

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Tran gets the point for Kratos, Soul gets the point for Ocelot, Yo gets the point for Jill, and HM gets the point for Heavy

Ngamer - 26
Yoblazer - 23
Moltar - 22
HM - 22
Tran - 21
Lopen - 15
Guest (War, KP (2), Dp, Justin, greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai, Klennex, Luis, Scott, Soul) - 14
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Moltar Status: augh
Zack/Wario/Link/Zidane - Bracket: Link > Shadow - Vote: Link (99/128)

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/20/2008 9:48:43 AM | message detail | #037 | filter

I got the Jill point? Sweetest moment of the contest for me!

By the way, shouldn't I have 24 points?

The Mana Sword | Posted 10/20/2008 9:54:16 AM | message detail | #038 | filter

Hey Moltar, I know this is a bit off in the distance but would it be ok to reserve (what should be) the Samus/Vincent/Crono/L-Block match in the quarterfinals? If not that's fine, but I figured it would be worth asking.
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Kleenex - Not on his computer.

By the way, shouldn't I have 24 points?

Oops, yeah. Should be +1 to you and -1 to Ngamer

Hey Moltar, I know this is a bit off in the distance but would it be ok to reserve (what should be) the Samus/Vincent/Crono/L-Block match in the quarterfinals? If not that's fine, but I figured it would be worth asking.

Way too early, and I don't allow calling matches ahead of time anyway. More Guest sign-ups should go up in a few days anyway
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Moltar Status: augh
Zack/Wario/Link/Zidane - Bracket: Link > Shadow - Vote: Link (99/128)

KamikazePotato | Posted 10/20/2008 1:53:41 PM | message detail | #040 | filter

that wasn't even a logical pick, more like an "I hope so" pick

which, to be fair, is kinda what he did in R1 as well and he got that one right

Yeah, pretty much.

And I just noticed that HM didn't have the highest Zack pick? What is this silliness?

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10

nintendogirl1 | Posted 10/20/2008 2:20:01 PM | message detail | #041 | filter

Reminding you that you did give me the Cube match Moltar.
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^.^

-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/20/2008 5:50:07 PM | message detail | #042 | filter

Why it Happened - Most logical reasoning I've seen for the result is that last year, with Cloud sucking up much of the vote, Ocelot beat Jill due to the hardcore MGS fans. Now that Cloud isn't here, Jill had much more voters to pull from. Still, Cloud held Jill back enough to beat a boosted Ocelot? And Kratos is another popular Sony figure, so his presence didn't hurt Jill as well? This is probably the strangest result of Round 1.

The only other explanation I can come up with is both the MGS and the GoW games being mostly on Sony systems, Kratos was able to make use of Sony SFF to hurt Ocelot.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~

Gaddswell | Posted 10/20/2008 8:18:27 PM | message detail | #043 | filter

My analysis should be in in about 45 minutes!
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http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaGWrPcjb8

augh i was planning on showering at 10

you guys should send them in earlier!
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Moltar Status: augh
Zack/Wario/Link/Zidane - Bracket: Link > Shadow - Vote: Link (99/128)

trannyscience | Posted 10/20/2008 8:36:32 PM | message detail | #045 | filter

I'm always amazed that you seem to be around every single day at ~10:30.
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/20/2008 8:40:32 PM | message detail | #046 | filter

I'm sorry, Molty. I get the feeling I hold you up more than anyone else. =(

Ngamer64 | Posted 10/20/2008 9:06:56 PM | message detail | #047 | filter

Nay, I definitely hold him up the most of anyone. That's one of the three Crew titles I plan on winning this season!

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Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/
Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com

ZFS | Posted 10/20/2008 9:08:33 PM | message detail | #048 | filter

this one was me whoops

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six bullets. more than enough to kill anything that moves.

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/20/2008 9:09:30 PM | message detail | #049 | filter

time to kick HM off the crew
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CB7 Score: 102/128
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg || http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg

Gaddswell | Posted 10/20/2008 9:12:35 PM | message detail | #050 | filter

Good to see I'm not the only one a little behind here!
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http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaGWrPcjb8

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