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Character Battle VII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2

transients | Posted 10/14/2008 10:57:12 PM | message detail | #401
Hogger could very well place, but I'm not going to bet on it. the bomb potential is way higher.

oh god, Hogger could have a truly awful percentage at the start here.
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zfs: man i'm reading an argument about whether or not midna is fat
zfs: come on mgs4
Lopen | Posted 10/14/2008 10:59:00 PM | message detail | #402
Hogger placing would be one of the biggest shocks to me. Unless Ramza and Laharl both cap at 14-15 or something, which seems a bit too weak for Ramza, strategy RPG SFF or not.

I'd sooner expect Laharl to rSFF Ramza for the victory than Hogger, honestly. You know, because Laharl is actually cool and Ramza is lame.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
RaeSaraneth | Posted 10/15/2008 12:16:34 AM | message detail | #403
Ok so I've been away for a few days but I'm back now. ^_^ I'm actually a little surprised at how close the bottom three are right now. Ramza better keep that second place spot.. Is this what, like the 3rd or 4th match where you've all (for the most part) agreed :P
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^_^
Master Moltar | Posted 10/15/2008 9:57:07 AM | message detail | #404
Captain MacMillan.....13.4% 17022
Leon Kennedy.........42.36% 53832
Riku...........................27.43% 34861
Siegfried Schtauffen..16.8% 21353
TOTAL VOTES.....................127068

What Happened - It's 2007 all over again for Riku! Except this time, a character from the same series as him wasn't here to be the blame for his poor performance. Leon easily defeats Riku.


Why it Happened - Well, Leon could be a bit stronger now, or Riku could be a bit weaker now. It's hard to say which, and Round 2 is going to be a mess.


What Will Happen - This result bodes well for Leon. With Riku doing worse than expected, Leon could slip by into Round 3, even with the Dante SFF.


Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay everyone (except Guest)!

Yoblazer - 20
Ngamer - 19
Tran - 18
HM - 17
Moltar - 16
Guest - 15
Lopen - 14


Crew Accuracy Challenge - Tran gets the point for Leon, Lopen gets the point for Riku, Ngamer gets the point for Siegfried and Mac

Yoblazer - 22
Moltar - 21
Ngamer - 20
HM - 18
Tran - 15
Lopen - 14
Guest (War, KP (2), Dp, Justin, greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai, Klennex) - 11
Steiner | Posted 10/15/2008 10:21:44 AM | message detail | #405
"Any faith I may have considered putting in him was instantly burned when I discovered that my brother, a guy who has put over 1,000 hours into World of Warcraft, didn't even know who Hogger was."

I don't see how this is possible, everyone plays a human at some poitn surely? anyway he's teh first boss for humans and humans are the most popular race in WoW so I find it hard to believe that many people don't know who he is
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Can you trust this man to run your site? No.
Smurf FAQs | Posted 10/15/2008 10:22:30 AM | message detail | #406
Did I ever get the guest place for the Sonic/Sandbag/others match, Moltar? I'll write it up today if I did.
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Smurf , The cream of Knuckles Fanboyism.
Smurf FAQs | Posted 10/15/2008 10:59:58 AM | message detail | #407
Mailed it to you Moltar.
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Smurf , The cream of Knuckles Fanboyism.
Ngamer64 | Posted 10/15/2008 1:17:27 PM | message detail | #408
Atta boy Hoggy!

Albion's taking a ton of heat for this result in Stats, but frankly people are way overreacting. Yes he's keeping topics bumped on a few WoW boards, but those are only a success because we were wrong and the WoW community DOES care about this character, or at least find him funny enough to vote for. It's also only working because Dante is being a beast and eating up so much of the "legit" vote. It's also only working because Laharl and Ramza appear to be holding each other back at least somewhat with the strategy RPG vote. It's also only working because the WoW servers continue to fail and go down, sending thousands of people to the message boards and fan sites to complain, who are in turn seeing people talking about Hogger and joining in the fun.

So basically the perfect storm I talked about in my writeup is taking place after all. If only I'd had the guts to go with that risky pick!

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DpObliVion | Posted 10/15/2008 1:55:25 PM | message detail | #409
God, Ramza sucks.

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Big Bob | Posted 10/15/2008 1:59:29 PM | message detail | #410
Beat that bastard, Laharl.
Ngamer64 | Posted 10/15/2008 2:03:29 PM | message detail | #411
Just glancing through some WoW boards now and about every other topic is this post:

i was doing ZA i died i got resed i hearted repaired and my party was like dude ur still here im like no im not im in silver moon and they could heal me emote me and all that and i would recieve the heals from accross the world.... i get back to the instance pop in and disconnected from server..

try to reconnect soon as its done loading.. Disconnected from server.. over and over and over again.. cant get on my character what the *($%!


And lots of places have a topic talking about Hogger on the first couple pages. So yeah, this timing really worked out perfectly in terms of getting people excited about WoW and about the new patch and about the upcoming expansion, but unable to actually play the game for at least a while during the day and looking for something else to do.

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transience | Posted 10/15/2008 2:05:29 PM | message detail | #412
guess I was wrong about Hogger.

ah well, all I care is that this match is behind us. and this certainly helps Riku for round 2.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
BDawg | Posted 10/15/2008 2:15:49 PM | message detail | #413
Even as a WoW player I don't pretend to know what goes through the minds of the people are always crying (excuse me QQ) about the patch changes or server outages. But really I think a tiny fraction could be swayed by a random guy's forum post about a not very funny joke (especially when they're so full of ANGST). So yeah blame Laharl and Ramza for leeching/being so frigging weak if you want to blame anything.
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Should I start running now?
transience | Posted 10/15/2008 2:28:48 PM | message detail | #414
yeah this is more a case of Ramza bombing than anything. no matter how you slice it, he's sub-Laharl.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
hailEC | Posted 10/15/2008 9:50:54 PM | message detail | #415
hey moltar you should totally drop a "hint" when you're going to put up sign-ups for the 2nd half analysis

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all hail ec your lord and savior
Master Moltar | Posted 10/15/2008 9:52:10 PM | message detail | #416
Division 8: Round 1 - Match 29 – Commander Shepard vs. Magus vs. Sandbag vs. Sonic the Hedgehog

Moltar’s Analysis

Shepard
Game/Series Known From: Mass Effect
2007 Results: N/A

What an excellent game, and one of my favorite RPGs.

Magus
Game/Series Known From: Chrono Trigger
2007 Results: 1st Place in Round 1 vs. Phoenix Wright, Bomberman and Crash
3rd Place in Round 2 vs. Mario, Big Boss and Phoenix Wright

Because the mighty have to fall sometime…

Sandbag
Game/Series Known From: Super Smash Bros.
2007 Results: N/A

A joke character with potential…the most dangerous kind of joke character we can get

Sonic
Game/Series Known From: Sonic
2007 Results: 1st Place in Round 1 vs. Sub-Zero, Prince of Persia and Viewtiful Joe
1st Place in Round 2 vs. Sub-Zero, Gordon Freeman and Duke Nukem
1st Place in Round 3 vs. Squall, Sora and Sub-Zero
3rd Place in Round 4 vs. L-Block, Solid Snake and Squall

Brawl Character #27, SNOIC

If this match happened in 2007, or any time before 2007, there wouldn’t be any debate over it. Everyone would just pick Sonic > Magus and we’d all be 4 points happier.

However, this match takes place in 2008; a year after a Tetris piece won the contest. Now we have to take every joke character under some consideration. augh

Anyway, Sonic is 95% likely to take first. We saw him beat out pretty of strong characters last year, even though he didn’t look impressive while doing so. Shepard is pretty much guaranteed last.

The huge unknown here though is Sandbag. Sandbag is one joke character here with “L-Block potential”. It’s from the Smash series, so while it isn’t as universally recognized as a Tetris piece, it’s still very well known. It also has a chance because of how badly Magus did last year. 30% when your competition is Phoenix, Bomberman and Crash? What the hell is that, Magus?

So yeah, Sandbag probably takes this thanks to Magus sucking + JokeFAQs. Man that’s depressing. Then again, this contest has taught you to set your hopes low peeps.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Sonic > Sandbag

Moltar’s Prediction is: Sonic: 40% - Sandbag: 28% - Magus: 22% - Shepard: 10%



Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Somehow, a match between Sonic, a Sandbag, and Magus has become one of the most anticipated of the round. I'm not sure how or why, but it is -- maybe it's the idea of Magus sucking so bad that he can't even beat an inanimate object, or maybe people are thinking Sonic might lose. Who knows.

I went back and forth with this one for a while, but after looking at a pic of Sandbag and seeing the contest pre-poll, the choice wasn't too hard. Seeing L-Block and the Cube do their thing only adds to my confidence that Sandbag will take second easy. If there were ever a joke that GameFAQs could latch onto, it's the Sandbag. This site's love of Smash Bros. ensures that recognizability won't be an issue, nor will people have to struggle to 'get it' like they might with, say, Hogger.

It doesn't help that Magus's recent record has been about as unimpressive as they come (no Big Boss's 48% on Kirby doesn't make Magus look better), barely getting 30% against Phoenix Wright/Bomberman/Crash last year. It's hard to have any real confidence in somebody who disappoints. His pic isn't helping anything either !

That said, I'd still give Magus a decent shot at advancing just because he's up against a Sandbag. I don't think it'll happen, but it wouldn't surprise me. Maybe with Brawl disappointing and Sonic in the poll, Sandbag will lose some votes. Tough to say. Oh well bring on Ocelot

Prediction: Sonic - 40% - Sandbag - 27% ; Magus - 20% ; Shepard - 13%
Bracket: Sonic > Sandbag
Vote: Magus
Master Moltar | Posted 10/15/2008 9:52:29 PM | message detail | #417
Yoblazer’s Analysis

Ugh. This is easily my most anticipated match of the first round, and I really wanted to hunker down and obliterate my old longest write-ups. Unfortunately, I'm terribly pressed for time, so this may actually be my shortest analysis of the contest. Doubt you guys care, but it kinda sucks on my end!

Anyway, let's get right down to it. Commander Shepard (Mass Effect), Magus (Chrono Trigger), Sandbag (Smash), and Sonic make up our fearsome foursome for the day. Shepard starred in a pretty cool game last year, but he won't do much against these guys, so I expect him in the 10-12% range. This is all about the Mag, the Sand, and the Hog, baby!

Sonic didn't impress anyone last year. He had four performances, and only one of them wasn't pathetic (and that one came right after his Brawl announcement). Combine his weakening last few years with Sonic Team's awfulness this year and the lack of a Brawl effect, and he should be even worse. Ungood.

As bad as Sonic was, Magus may have been even worse. I know some people are trying to salvage his 2007 distant loss to Big Boss based on BB's awesome performance a few days ago, but I don't buy it. Boss is hardly a reliable strength indicator, and even in the match before that, Magus failed to earn 31% against three fodder-level opponents. Even ungooder.

Enter Sandbag. Most people don't expect much from the little punching bag that could, but I sure do. His opponents look scary (looked a lot scarier 3-5 years ago, if you ask me), but they were dreadful last year, and I think Sandbag will capitalize. Essentially, Sandbag's range depends on whether or not the Smash fanbase and voters at large recognize him as a worthy joke entrant. Many are confident they will not, and I respectfully disagree. That's really all there is to it. I think Bag will do just fine with joke and Smash support, and that should easily catapult him past Magus and into Round 2. Here's to hoping I'm not eating crow in a couple hours!

Commander Shepard - 11%
Magus - 22%
Sandbag - 30%
Sonic the Hedgehog - 37%



Lopen’s Analysis

Let's be terse here because I doubt my cohorts will be: So, this is supposed to be the match that establishes joke dominance. Well, let's throw that Shepard's Pie out of here first of all, no one gives a crap. What is it even from? My sources tell me it's an X-Box RPG or something... yeah that's not happening again! I hate you, Kaim Argonar. You will pay.

Now.. the real reason to talk about this match. A bag of sand. A punching bag. You hit it, and it drops stuff... you smack it with a bat, it goes flying thousands of feet. Perfect joke entrant, right? Well, you know me, I'm here to tell you again, why the joke entrant is going to fail (I'm bound to get one right! This is my day!). So... so... okay... think of our joke entrants here.

Those that have succeeded: The L-Block. The companion cube.
Those that have failed: The Hogger (it beat Ramza... but that was just because Ramza sucked). The Dog.

What do these things have in common? Well, one of the groups... lacks any distinguishable features. They are inanimate objects . Oh, but the bag... it is merely a bag of sand... it is no character! But nay, I say... look into its eyes, and you will see why it is bound to lose... quite literally! For you see, it sees, and so I cannot see it winning. The heart of the matter lies in the heart of the bag, which you see through its eyes. ... what? The point is, the bag is not "lulzworthy." It's much too cute for that. It's basically going to get Smash votes, which have flopped. Also, let's not forget that this is pretty much the perfect storm to take out an enemy joke character. High midcarder with devoted fanbase, elite, and ULTIMATE FODDER. The bag has no chance. Believe.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/15/2008 9:53:40 PM | message detail | #418
Lopen's prediction:
Sonic - 42.22%
Magus - 32.11%
Sandbag - 16.00%
Kaim Argonar - 9.67%



Transience’s Analysis

Sandbag time! I'm sure yoblazer wrote an essay about this thing, so I'll keep this brief:

Sandbag has arguably the single most appeal of any joke character. it's from a game that's very popular on this site. it's an item that's fairly endearing to the Smash fanbase. even people who don't "joke vote" may vote for this thing. it's just fun.

on the other side of things, we've got one of our best choke jobs, Magus. 30% on Phoenix, Bomberman and Crash -- that's pretty pathetic and a nice fall from grace. Magus's one thing to cling to is that CT has looked pretty decent this year, but it's still going to be tough for him to bring in a huge percentage when Sonic's in the poll. if Sandbag approaches joke character percentages, Magus is done for.

the one thing going against Sandbag is that it actually resembles a sentient character with those eyes. I'm not sure how many people will "get" the joke. but with a picture like that, a character like Sonic to suck up percentage and a joke like Magus? ballgame.

time for SANDBAGFEAR
Brawl de-boost? ineffective!
Magus chokes again

transience's prediction: Sonic with 40.33%, Sandbag with 26.45%, Magus with 24.33%, Shepard (WHO THE HELL IS THIS) with 8.89%



Ngamer’s Analysis

Awwww yeah, what an awesome match today. Too bad that the Stats topic had to be ruined by people crying about rallying for 24 straight hours. Come on guys, its Blizzard, of course there's going to be outside voting if the end result is at all in question. If you want to be upset at someone, vent your frustration at Ramza and Laharl for looking so pathetic (and seemingly LFFing each other a bit) that they couldn't put away a minor character from a game only 31% of the site has played. To me, this is the kind of "joke" character that's actually enjoyable- Hogger's a weakling, but (assuming he holds on these last hours for the win) it was fun to watch him shake things up and snatch the win away from equally undeserving competition here in R1. BUT, there's no danger of him suddenly going all L-Block on us and ruining perfectly good matchups down the line with a dull static strength. In fact, he actually enhances R2, as now Riku will have a much better shot at equalling an LFF weakened Leon than he would have with Square/FF/RPG LFF in play. Hogger: Truly a joke we can all get behind!

As cool as these last 24 hours have been, the next 24 might even top them! Time to see the Contest's biggest wildcard finally hit the stage-

The Sandman Cometh
He is the sleep stalker.
Lock up your son,
Lock up your daughter.
He'll come past one,
So prepare for the slaughter.

The Sandman Cometh,
To sing his lullaby.
Try as you might,
Try to defy.
But not past tonight,
In your grave you will lie.



Last Known Values
Sonic - 36.54% (2007)
Magus - 21.17% (2007)
Shepard - new
Sandbag - new

Let me be clear here- I'm not a fan of the 'bag, and would be overjoyed if he bombed out of this Contest, hard. I keep looking for ways for that to happen, but all of them seem like too much of a stretch. Sure, Sonic looks really good in this match pic, and sure Crono and Frog held up better than many expected in their matches, so maybe some kind of CT:DS hype effect is going around. And sure, Brawl hasn't turned former fodder into legit contenders this season as some had expected. But every time I try to make a case in my mind for one of those truths, a dozen even better counter points bounce back at me:

- Master Hand won a match... in the 1v1 format. and he was arguably even MORE of a joke, competing back when SSB was weaker on this site!
- WCC pulled in 32% of the vote
Master Moltar | Posted 10/15/2008 9:53:58 PM | message detail | #419
- L-Block and Dog snatched 46% of the vote between them, and that wasn't even against weak competition
- Magus earned 31% against PW/Bomberman/Crash... and 18% when Mario and Big Boss got involved
- Sonic Team is awful in this format, both in '07 and '08 so far
- Shepard has 360 appeal and won't just roll over and die, leaving less "legit" percentage for the other two options
- Brawl newcomers haven't been world-beaters, but Sandy was the star of the Home Run Challenge, arguably the most popular Melee single player challenge (and plenty popular in Brawl as well BTW)

http://youtube.com/watch?v=IunYZIYk1UY

Yeah, so try as I might I just can't come up with a way that the Bag doesn't outdo Magus in this one. Hopefully Sonic at least can stay comfortably ahead of him, so that we'll be able to stay confident in him being knocked out by the deadly Sonic/Auron combo a few weeks from now. With all that being said, here's how things should end up:

Sonic the Hedgehog - 39.51%
Sandbag - 23.98%
Magus - 23.49%
Commander Shepard - 13.01%

Bah, it looks so bad... but I just don't know what else to do!

Ngamer Says: Sonic > Sandbag



Guest’s Analysis - Smurf

This, for my bracket is the key moment. It'll live or die based on tomorrow's outcome. And the characters lining up for this battle couldn't be more different. There's a Noble Niner, Midcarder, Newcomer fodder and a potentially lethal or worthless joke character.

First of all I'll just throw Shepard a mention and leave it at that. He's the latest in a line of mainstream newcomers from new shiny High Def video games and they've all done surprisingly well in my opinion. Well, ok they've mostly finished last but given the topsy turvy nature of mainstream idols like Master Chief or Lara Croft I think it's fair enough. MacMillan, Frank West, even the lesser known Nathan Drake put up an alright showing and no reason why Shep won't do the same. I don't expect a Marcus Fenix upset but double digit percentages seems likely, though his last place I would say is virtually confirmed.

At the other end the undisputed victor is Sonic and I'm always uneasy about the blue blur in this format. He let Sub-Zero come within 9000 votes of him in the opening match and then in my view was spared a tragic contest by an instant brawl boost which carried him through the rest of the contest, the inconsistency of L-Block finishing the job preventing any real questions being asked of his end performance. But we've seen the brawl effect or lack of so far this year and there's little reason why Sonic is going to benefit for it when nobody else has. That said it's a new audience so it'll certainly help him more than say Kirby but even so I don't envisige Sonic impressing tomorrow. Added to Brawl doubts and the questionable performances of Shadow, Knuckles and Tails so far it also has to be mentioned that Sonic has never been good racking up the percentages. He's an ace at grinding out victories (outside on NN'ers) but when it comes to the blowouts like Mario, he just rarely has the numbers to do it.
If he gets over 40% I'll be satisfied with his effort.

Now the real battle. Magus has gone on the become a very average midcarder and last year was a bit of a nightmare for him as he struggled at every hurdle actually losing updates to Crash Bandicoot at one point. A sharp fall from the man who once resisted a Link doubling. But CTDS while I wouldn't term it a boost it's certainly steadied the sinking CT ship. Frog and Crono didn't amaze anyone this year but crucially didn't let anyone down either which is a rare thing given the recent trend of jobbings from the series. So it puts Magus in a position to put up a fight. 40/60 on Sonic seems about right.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/15/2008 9:55:03 PM | message detail | #420
Then there's the sandbag, the guy that could make the final or potentially crash out tomorrow. There's a few ways of looking at the guy...or bag.

Best Case Scenario - Sand-Bag has the wide range appeal and visual lol-ness of L-Block so will soak up that demographic like the moist bag he is turning in the typical joke range numbers that we saw with Block and Cube of 28-33%

Worst Case Scenario - This is a glorified Master Hand and will have consistent rather than joke strength. Even then Master Hand was hardly a chump and given the voterbase now favouring joke characters far more than they used to you have to wonder just what Master Hand would be capable of now.

I always make my predictions from a pessimistic point of view so I'm going to say that the outcome will be the Best Case, which is in fact the worst case and that Sandbag will soak in ~30% and take a comfortable 2nd.

But I fear this sandbag, while he might be biting Sonic's dust tomorrow it won't be the case for long and for me he's likely to go on to become the embodiment of the contest decline. Never thought I'd be rooting for Magus. The contest's grave will begin being dug tomorrow.

Sonic 34.41%
Sandbag 31.03%
Magus 24.22%
Commander Shepard 12.34%

Sonic > Sandbag



Crew Consensus: what the hell? Sonic > Sandbag is the pick, and the Lopen upset special is Sonic > Magus? good lord
DpObliVion | Posted 10/15/2008 9:55:33 PM | message detail | #421
DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick ANGRY! Analysis:

SANDBAG WILL NOT ADVANCE

SANDBAG WILL NOT ADVANCE

SANDBAG WILL NOT ADVANCE

SANDBAG WILL NOT ADVANCE

SANDBAG WILL NOT ADVANCE

SHUT THE HELL UP

SANDBAG WILL NOT ADVANCE

Dp's bracket says: Sonic > Magus

Dp's prediction is: Sonic > Magus

Confidence: 200%

Sonic - 40%
Magus - 25%
Sandbag - 22%
Shepard - 13%


Seriously.....we finally get to the match with my beloved Sonic....and it's just clouded with this bull****. Get Sandbag the hell out of here, he's not going anywhere. I can't believe how much serious support he is getting from some of the most highly respected predictors. I'm not even justifying this match with my reasoning. And I officially don't care about this contest anymore if it advances.

/angst

P.S. Thank you, Lopen.

(I'm against the crew, and on the side of BT, hochiminh, and Albion....not sure what to think about that.)

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008
Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/15/2008 10:01:48 PM | message detail | #422
Dp, that's what my prediction was before I put Sandbag a little closer to Magus.

I REALLY want Magus to kick Sandbag's ass but I'm just not sure...
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Justin's CB Points: 92 | Points After this Round: 94
Today: Dante > Laharl | Tomorrow: Sonic > Magus
Dr_Football | Posted 10/15/2008 10:02:18 PM | message detail | #423
Isn't it technically Sandbag Brawl character #27 and Sonic #28?
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DpObliVion | Posted 10/15/2008 10:06:45 PM | message detail | #424
And yeah, Magus does seem to suck hard in these contests, and Ramza sucking hard today isn't helping, so I won't be too surprised if-NO.

NO.

I WILL NOT BACK DOWN FROM MY STANCE.

SANDBAG WILL NOT ADVANCE.

WHOO UNINTENTIONAL RHYME.

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008
satai_delenn | Posted 10/15/2008 10:10:56 PM | message detail | #425
Isn't it technically Sandbag Brawl character #27 and Sonic #28?

That would require giving Sandbag the satisfaction of calling it a character. >_>
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transients | Posted 10/15/2008 10:13:57 PM | message detail | #426
Dp's got the analysis of the day.
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zfs: man i'm reading an argument about whether or not midna is fat
zfs: come on mgs4
Lopen | Posted 10/15/2008 10:17:33 PM | message detail | #427
Dp, that analysis was amazing. Kudos, my man.

And funny NGamer mentioned Master Hand... I think Master Hand would be stronger than Sandbag in this format. I'd probably take Master Hand, he doesn't have those eyes.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Master Moltar | Posted 10/15/2008 10:34:19 PM | message detail | #428

satai_delenn (#425)
Isn't it technically Sandbag Brawl character #27 and Sonic #28?

That would require giving Sandbag the satisfaction of calling it a character. >_>



This

and dp said what i wanted to but couldn't in his analysis. he is braver than most
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Moltar Status: augh
Shepard/Magus/Sandbag/Sonic - Bracket: Sonic > Magus - Vote: Shepard (87/112)
DpObliVion | Posted 10/15/2008 11:30:57 PM | message detail | #429
FIGHT, MAGUS! GO! FIGHT!

GOTTA GO FIGHT WIN

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008
Evil Tomba | Posted 10/15/2008 11:39:50 PM | message detail | #430
Hogger: Truly a joke we can all get behind!

Hell no. Laharl is actually interesting. >_> I mean, Ramza might still have won, but he had a CHANCE. Hogger bites.

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Ngamer64 | Posted 10/15/2008 11:43:14 PM | message detail | #431
Well now, we got ourselves an old-fashioned shootout!

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Tatl | Posted 10/16/2008 1:18:43 AM | message detail | #432
I don't see how this is possible, everyone plays a human at some poitn surely?

*Has never played as a Human*

And I doubt I will any time soon. The Tauren (and Horde in general) are more fun than the three Human races (they're all humans!!!), Dranei, and NEs.

humans are the most popular race in WoW

Maybe on your server, but, when I last checked months ago, Gnomes > Humans in numbers on Argyos. It might have changed since then, but I doubt it.

so I find it hard to believe that many people don't know who he is

*Had never heard of Hogger before this contest.*
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Bracket Score as of 10/15: 80
Today's Pick: Dante > Ramza - Biggest Flop: Ryu > Metaknight
Lopen | Posted 10/16/2008 2:24:01 AM | message detail | #433
One more.. for the good guys.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
transience | Posted 10/16/2008 2:24:42 AM | message detail | #434
this definitely isn't over yet.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Lopen | Posted 10/16/2008 2:31:41 AM | message detail | #435
Magus was gaining on it even during the power hour, he's just gaining a lot faster now. I'm confident enough to call it over to risk eating my words later.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
transience | Posted 10/16/2008 2:34:11 AM | message detail | #436
Magus is in a great spot, no doubt, but given that this is Magus? yeah, we've seen this before, and we've seen a bomb.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Lopen | Posted 10/16/2008 2:38:26 AM | message detail | #437
Well, we've only really seen this from Magus before when the poll started at 3am ET rather than 12am ET, though. If Magus/Knuckles was held with the current poll time I doubt the match would've ever been in doubt for Knuckles.

Kinda makes me miss the old start time. Swings were a lot more dramatic back then.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
transience | Posted 10/16/2008 2:41:58 AM | message detail | #438
well, we've seen a new trend since with CT -- its ability to bomb after like 4am. if Magus follows old trends, Sandbag wins by default. if Sandbag has a Smash day vote, which it very well could, it beats Magus in the day no matter what. it just depends on how much Magus can run up the lead here.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
satai_delenn | Posted 10/16/2008 3:24:11 AM | message detail | #439
I'm just hoping Sonic's day vote > Sandbag's day vote. Come on, Sonic. Got places to go, gotta follow your rainbow...
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Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE!
darglor | Posted 10/16/2008 6:54:37 AM | message detail | #440
In a world where better characters win, the 2 to advance would be Magus & Shepard.
In the real world, it'll be Sonic > Sandbag.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/16/2008 10:24:22 AM | message detail | #441
Dante.......................50.08% 64557
Hogger....................16.82% 21678
Laharl........................16.4% 21134
Ramza Beoulve.......16.7% 21528
TOTAL VOTES ..................128897

What Happened - Dante hits 50%, which is the only thing real noteworthy in this match. The others struggle and rally for second, Hogger won that.


Why it Happened - Because Dante is awesome and the other three are fail


What Will Happen - Dante looks good going into R2, Hogger will take like under 10%.


Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay no one)!

Yoblazer - 20
Ngamer - 19
Tran - 18
HM - 17
Moltar - 16
Guest - 15
Lopen - 14


Crew Accuracy Challenge - HM gets the point for Dante and Laharl, Ngamer gets the point for Ramza, and Luis gets the point for Hogger

Yoblazer - 22
Moltar - 21
Ngamer - 21
HM - 20
Tran - 15
Lopen - 14
Guest (War, KP (2), Dp, Justin, greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai, Klennex, Luis) - 12
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Moltar Status: augh
Shepard/Magus/Sandbag/Sonic - Bracket: Sonic > Magus - Vote: Shepard (87/112)
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/16/2008 10:27:19 AM | message detail | #442
Lopen with the upset victory!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: 1st place, 57296 votes, 45.06%
RaeSaraneth | Posted 10/16/2008 2:33:38 PM | message detail | #443
Man, now I'm wishing I'd have been with Lopen and Dp on this one :(
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^_^
Chaotic Mind | Posted 10/16/2008 3:07:35 PM | message detail | #444
Awesome analysis DP, i love it.
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Proud member of the A1 Steak Sauce Guild
transients | Posted 10/16/2008 4:27:55 PM | message detail | #445
the Lopen Curse strikes?!
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zfs: man i'm reading an argument about whether or not midna is fat
zfs: come on mgs4
DpObliVion | Posted 10/16/2008 10:15:22 PM | message detail | #446
:*(

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008
trannyscience | Posted 10/16/2008 10:16:49 PM | message detail | #447
Lopen'd
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif
Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/16/2008 10:19:34 PM | message detail | #448
**** YOU SANDBAG
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Justin's CB Points: 94 | Points After this Round: 98
Today: Sonic > Magusl | Tomorrow: Auron > Sub-Zero
Master Moltar | Posted 10/16/2008 10:20:18 PM | message detail | #449
Division 7: Round 1 - Match 30 – Auron vs. Marcus Fenix vs. Rydia vs. Sub-Zero

Moltar’s Analysis

Auron
Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy X
2007 Results: 1st Place in Round 1 vs. Shadow, Pyramid Head and Chris
1st Place in Round 2 vs. Ryu, Bowser and Shadow
3rd Place in Round 3 vs. Cloud, Ryu and Marcus Fenix

Auron was dominant last year…until he got to Cloud.

Marcus
Game/Series Known From: Gears of War
2007 Results: 1st Place in Round 1 vs. Kefka, Tom Nook and Zelos
2nd Place in Round 2 vs. Cloud, Ocelot and Kefka
4th Place in Round 3 vs. Cloud, Ryu and Auron

Hey, both losers from the Cloud/Ryu match are here

Rydia
Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy IV
2007 Results: N/A

hot chick = mass votes

Sub-Zero
Game/Series Known From: Mortal Kombat
2007 Results: 2nd Place in Round 1 vs. Sonic, Prince of Persia and Viewtiful Joe
2nd Place in Round 2 vs. Sonic, Gordon Freeman and Duke Nukem
4th Place in Round 3 vs. Sonic, Squall, and Sora

Ice dude from the MK series. He’s blue

Auron eats this fourpack. Rydia won’t hold him back much and he beat fourpacks much tougher than this last year with ease (36% on Shadow/Ryu/Bowser what the hell).

Sub-Zero is most likely going to take second. He’s kind of weird, as he looked great in Round 1, bad in Round 2 and decent in Round 3. Fenix has an outside shot at 2nd, but I don’t think he’ll do. Gears 2 hype isn’t that big on the FAQs and last year he was able to barely get passed an SFF’d Ocelot and Kefka…well then.

(yeah I forgot to do this earlier and I’m kinda pressed for time)

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Auron > Sub-Zero

Moltar’s Prediction is: Auron: 40% - Sub-Zero: 26% - Marcus: 21% - Rydia: 13%



Heroic Mario’s Analysis

As of now, Magus/Sandbag is still up in the air with the Bag leading by about 400 votes. Sonic's under 37%, making his performance pretty lackluster -- barely 10% above Magus doesn't spell good things when you go up against some real strength. All Auron needs to do here is meet expectations and most will probably favor him to take next round.

As far as what should be expected of Auron, I think 40%+ is a good place to start. Sub-Zero has some legit strength -- he got close to Sonic in round 1 last year, for whatever that's worth against Sonic these days. Fenix did respectably last year, and might be better this year thanks to Gears 2 hype and GameFAQs embracing the 360. Rydia...I doubt she's worth anything. A few people in the stats topic have been up on her after Kain, but with Auron here? Not happenin'. If you think Zack hurt Cecil, Auron should be even worse for Rydia.

The big thing to keep an eye on in this match is second place -- what happens between Sub and Fenix. Sub-Zero more than likely will take second, but it wouldn't surprise me if Fenix can make a match of it. I'm not sure why -- maybe Gears 2, maybe Scorpion earlier this round -- but I've got a feeling he'll do well here.

But I'm stickin' with Auron and Sub. Auron's gonna rock this group and Sub-Zero will do what he needs to to advance. Not much of an exciting match regardless of what happens, though, because it won't matter in round 2. But hey as long as Rydia bombs we're all happy right damn you stats topic a tree isn't hot

Prediction: Auron - 44% ; Sub-Zero - 25% ; Fenix - 23% ; Rydia - 8%
Bracket: Auron > Sub-Zero
Vote: Auron
Master Moltar | Posted 10/16/2008 10:20:35 PM | message detail | #450
Yoblazer’s Analysis

I'm in a huge hurry trying to do ten things at once and follow this match, so I'll make this quick as a jiffy. Today's match features Auron (FFX, KHII), Marcus Fenix (Gears of War), Rydia (Final Fantasy IV), and Sub-Zero (Mortal Kombat). The winner is as obvious as a pimple on your bunghole (in terms of PAIN). The second place winner is a bit tougher to crack, but we have a very heavy favorite there, too.

Auron is going to massacre this poll. The FFX badass is miles ahead of everyone in this poll in terms of intrinsic power, and he proved last year that he's beastly in this format, to boot. If he can put up 35% in a poll with Ryu, Bowser, and Shadow, he should have no trouble at all disposing these clowns. Easy win.

Second place, like I said, is a bit tougher, but Sub-Zero is the big odds-on favorite. Subby didn't find his way into a contest until 2006, but he has been great since then. He upset Master Chief mano-a-mano and did very well in this format against Sonic last year. However, I think he met his match in Auron. Subby nearly put up 40% on Auron in 2006, but I think that was an ice-cold overperformance. He had the picture advantage and a brand new game (not to mention a huge upset that brought everyone on his side) to help him. Not so this time around, and after watching Scorpion do poorly, I don't think Sub-Zero will hold up as well this time as he did two years ago.

However, he should still win. His main competition, Marcus Fenix, may have the Xbox fanbase on his side, but he's still far behind in terms of pure strength. Gears of War is also a year older, and I haven't heard or seen any hype for GoW2, so I expect Marcus to be weaker this year. Really, our biggest question mark is our only new entrant of the match, Rydia. Up until a few days ago, I would have said she was destined to bomb. After Kain Highwind did well and she landed a great picture, though, I ain't so sure. Her beauty really does stand out in the presence of three macho men, so that might help her out. She might do well, but I doubt she'll be a threat to Sub-Zero.

Auron - 41%
Marcus Fenix - 19%
Rydia - 17%
Sub-Zero - 23%



Lopen’s Analysis

You'd better win you bastard Magus. 2100 votes lost during the ASV what the hell.

This match should be pretty straightforward. Auron is a bad man, big bad man, and he's probably got first in a big way. Sub-Zero is looking like the clear second. Rydia meanwhile... is looking... absolutely gorgeous. Her beauty... unrivaled. KOS-MOS? Tifa? None can compare~ Take me away from this crew, Rydia... let's go, let's go and start a family... I... I mean... I know there are some difficulties... you being... you know... a video game character... but we'll figur--

*Ahem* Um, yeah, I really don't know what to say about this match. Rydia has the hottest picture ever and should win. Vote Rydia. And if you need more, she's a good character, too. And in all seriousness, even beyond the pic, after seeing Kain, I think she'll surprise quite a bit. Marcus probably loses to her, with Subz and Auron taking the casual vote. Though I suppose Auron SFFing her isn't out of the question, considering that's probably what Zack did to Cecil. Hmmm.

Lopen's Prediction:
Auron – 33.21%
Sub-Zero – 27.78%
Your goddess, Rydia – 23.13%
Marcus Fenix – 15.88%



Transience’s Analysis

Sandbag! what a comeback. this definitely isn't over, though. I'd definitely rather have the bag than the vampire, but the sun is going down.

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