GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/12/2008 3:10:35 PM | message detail | #351 |
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Mewtwo.....................41.83% 52487 Ness.........................18.31% 22971 Pac-Man...................25.09% 31487 Travis Touchdown..14.77% 18532 TOTAL VOTES......................125477 What Happened - Well now, Mewtwo shows that he really is worth something as he crushes the competition here. Pac-Man also beats out Ness with ease, and Travis ends up not being a complete flop. Yay! Why it Happened - Mewtwo's numbers here could mean a lot of things. The most likely is that it confirms he's legit as most of us guessed after he nearly beat a Toad-hindered Bowser in Round 1 last year. Mewtwo also looks to have benefited from SFFing Ness pretty badly. Ness ended up much lower than people expected. Pac-Man, on the other hand, holds up well. What Will Happen - Cloud/Minda/Mewtwo/Pac, I don't see anything really changing here. Mewtwo's strong performance only makes him look even better to move on. Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay Lopen, Tran and Ngamer! Yoblazer - 17 Tran - 16 Ngamer - 16 HM - 15 Moltar - 14 Guest - 13 Lopen - 12 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Yo gets the point for Mewtwo, Ngamer gets the point for Ness and Travis, and HM gets the point for Pac Moltar - 21 Yoblazer - 21 HM - 16 Ngamer - 16 Tran - 12 Lopen - 12 Guest (War, KP (2), Dp, Justin, greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai) - 10 --- Moltar Status: augh Big Boss/Jinjo/Kirby/Lucas - Bracket: Kirby > Big Boss - Vote: Kirby (75/96) |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/12/2008 8:53:05 PM | message detail | #352 |
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PartOfYourWorld (#350) and they said having a crew full of metal gear fanboys would get us nowhere --- Moltar Status: augh Big Boss/Jinjo/Kirby/Lucas - Bracket: Kirby > Big Boss - Vote: Kirby (75/96) |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/12/2008 9:17:09 PM | message detail | #353 |
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Division 7: Round 1 - Match 26 – Kain Highwind vs. Master Chief vs. Professor Layton vs. Raiden Moltar’s Analysis Kain Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy IV 2007 Results: N/A Another FFIV character gets in thanks to the DS release Master Chief Game/Series Known From: Halo 2007 Results: 1st Place in Round 1 vs. Yuna, Vercetti and PaRappa 1st Place in Round 2 vs. Yuna, Alucard and Liquid Snake 1st Place in Round 3 vs. Luigi, Ganondorf and Yuna 1st Place in Round 4 vs. Dante, Luigi and Pikachu 3rd Place in Round 5 vs. L-Block, Solid Snake and Dante The power of GAME FUEL propels the Chief in this format! Layton Game/Series Known From: Professor Layton 2007 Results: N/A Hmm…I got nothin Raiden Game/Series Known From: Metal Gear Solid 2007 Results: 2nd Place in Round 1 vs. Crono, Sam and Simon 3rd Place in Round 2 vs. Crono, Zero and HK-47 I am lightning. The rain transformed. Two unknown guys go up against one guy with decent strength and one guy who’s a powerhouse in this format. I wonder who I should go with. Chief will lay waste to this group. We saw him dominate groups twice as strong as this last year with no problem. One thing to see though is how he will fare without Halo 3 hype. I mean, Halo 3 is still big, but the hype last year was massive, and Chief was able to ride it all throughout the contest. Still, I don’t think Chief will falter much. The train of believe starts here! Second place goes to Raiden, fresh off of MGS4. His ninja picture didn’t seem to do him any favors this year, so it’ll be interesting to see how he does with it now that the game is actually out and people actually recognize it. Layton and Kain…I couldn’t care less how they do. Moltar’s Bracket Says: Master Chief > Raiden Moltar’s Prediction is: MC: 45% - Raiden: 31% - Kain: 17% - Layton: 7% Heroic Mario’s Analysis Before Big Boss's 48% yesterday, the best I had in mind for Raiden was to come within 10% of the Chief -- that would have said plenty about MGS4's impact and been a respectable show for him. But with the MGS4 looking very real -- and substantial -- it may not be too farfetched for Raiden to do the unthinkable here, as unlikely as that may seem. Of all the Metal Gear characters, Raiden certainly has the most to gain from MGS4. Last year, his pic was near unrecognizable to anyone who hadn't kept up with the MGS4 news -- and even then it was difficult to tell with his faced closed off. This year, he shouldn't have to worry about any pic factor working against him. Added to that, Raiden manages to steal the show quite a few times during the game -- and he's certainly 'cooler' than his MGS2 self. Odds are well in Master Chief's favor, though. For all that there's evidence of a MGS4 boost, there's almost equally as much pointing toward a shift on the site to the Xbox 360, and that's not even mentioning the fact that the Chief has looked significantly better for years. Just looking at last year -- Chief in the semifinals, Raiden out in round 2 after barely getting by Sam Fisher in round 1. I don't think he's going to be as strong as he last year (no Halo 3 dropping in the middle of the contest), but with how much stronger Chief is than Raiden, it may not matter. Raiden's got his work cut out for him, to be sure, but if the MGS4 boost is as big as it appears it might be, he's got a good shot at wowing a lot of people. I doubt he does it, but damn if I'm not going to take him here on fanboyism alone in the off-chance it pays off. believe in metal gear solid 4 Prediction: Raiden - 40% ; Master Chief - 38% ; Kain - 16% ; Layton - 6% Bracket: Master Chief > Raiden Vote: we've managed to avoid drowning |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/12/2008 9:17:35 PM | message detail | #354 |
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Yoblazer’s Analysis Yesterday, we were all treated to one of Round 1's biggest upsets. Today is a change of pace, as we'll all be treated to one of its most predictable results. Our quartet du jour is comprised of a midcarder who has very likely boosted, a veritable force in this 4way format, and two pieces of assured fodder. There ain't much to analyze here in terms of who wins and who loses, but we can always discuss the margins! Master Chief is here, and he's the "veritable force" I just mentioned. Chief made this format his playground last year, putting up impressive result after impressive result. He obliterated lower midcarders, made mince meat out of Nintendo entrants that wouldn't have a problem beating him in a 1v1 scenario, and ended his mesmerizing run by putting a scare into Solid Snake. Yep, that Chief is back, and he's going to win this match effortlessly. However, there has been some discussion as to just how strong he'll be this time around. You see, last year he was fortunate enough to be driven by Halo 3 hype (the game released like two days after his first match) and a multi-million dollar marketing blitz that accompanied the game's launch. Obviously, Master Chief soda (Believe), shirts, toys, underwear, checkbooks, and 401K plans will boost the guy, so some people are thinking he'll be weaker without all that stuff this year. This may be true, but others are arguing that this will be offset by the apparent "Xbox boost" we've seen this year, as voters seem to be more drawn to that console and its characters. Personally, I don't expect to see much change from Chief. Maybe he'll be a smidgen weaker, but it should still be enough to wipe these opponents and venture far into the bracket. No problemo. Raiden is our likely-to-have-boosted midcarder, and he'll be winning second place without breaking a sweat. Unfortunately for the MGS2 lead (ugh), Raiden didn't look particular good last year. He almost lost to Sam freakin' Fisher in Round 1, and then followed that up by finishing a very distant third place. In fact, even calling him a true "midcarder" like I'm doing now might be a bit of a stretch, as he couldn't really prove that last year. There were complaints that his pictures were completely unrecognizable, as he received his MGS4 cyborg artwork when that game was still nearly a year away from release. Fortunately for our athletic friend, he has since received that same MGS4, and it's making some of his buddies look very good. A boost is almost certain in this case, and any negative picture factors he may have had last year will be neutralized. I'm not expecting him to contend with Chiefy or anything, but I do think he'll look much better than he did last year. Kain Highwind and Professor Layton are our surefire fodders. Kain is from FFIV. His buddy, Cecil, is the star of the game, had a much better picture with weaker competition, and still performed poorly, so Kain will be down in the doldrums here. Professor Layton might benefit from being the only kiddy, cartoony looking guy in the bunch (his name and top hat may also garner votes from snooty intellectual types), but he's only from a handheld game no one cares about, so I still doubt he breaks 10%. That's about all she wrote here, folks. Sandbag's getting closer! Kain Highwind - 12% Master Chief - 48% Professor Layton - 8% Raiden - 32% |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/12/2008 9:18:11 PM | message detail | #355 |
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Lopen’s Analysis So... alright, I decided to look up who these other lamers were, so I wouldn't come off as a blind Master Chief and Raiden fanboy. I thought Professor Layton was like... the guy from Brain Age or something. Turns out, after a quick search through google, that he not only has his own game... he has his own series! Man. Great stuff. Kain, meanwhile, is a dragoon who accompanies the dark knight Cecil in his quest to conquer the world under the flag of almighty Baron in the Command and Conquer Series. No problem, bro. Fodder one and fodder two. Cecil doing so poorly in the first match implies Kain can't really do any better than 10% here, given that this pack is stronger, and Cecil > Kain. Layton... well, whatever. So, I'm likin Raiden to look real good here. I kinda wanted to see MGS2 Raiden, but at least this year everyone will know for sure who this guy is. Raiden's toaster-like disguises cannot protect him from getting votes this year, the gig is up. And after seeing Big Boss today? I'm thinkin Raiden is set to explode here. Why didn't Snake apparently get much of a boost? Because he wasn't old. People can no longer associate with Snake if he's not struggling to breathe, looking for his dentures. Raiden, however, with his youthful elegance, grace, and ninjistics, appeals to the youth of today and at the same time does not dissociate himself with a MGS4 boost. But seriously. Raiden no doubt became a whole lot more likable in MGS4, and he should do damn well here. Both because the pic is recognizable and because he's more awesome to more people now. Of course, it is just a PS3 game, which might limit his appeal. In any case, Raiden is the guy to look at in this match. How well he does will influence Big Boss's chance of upsetting Kirby. (Or better yet... Raiden's chance to upset Big Boss and Kirby !!) Meanwhile, Master Chief conflicts me in this match. On the one hand, I want him to look good. On the other, I want Raiden to look good. No doubt Chief WILL look good, though. This is a weaker four-pack than the one he went up against last year in R1, and he got a MIGHTY 45% against it. Needless to say, I think I was pretty modest when I said "48%" in my sig. But that's changing today, so you know, we'll be more ambitious in round 2. Some people are saying MC will mysteriously "deboost" this season. I'm kinda tired of it, really. Halo 3 did get a mixed reaction... but given that this is GameFAQs/B8, I'd expect the negativity of this reaction to be severely amplified by people around here. If I hadn't frequented GameFAQs, I wouldn't even really know that it got any negative reaction. Really, Master Chief should be getting a boost this year, if anything. Barring Raiden going nuts (win/win) expect him to crack 50% here, like a noble niner would, because that's what Chief is in this format. I'd say 49-51% implies he's constant, with less or more implying he's dropped or boosted. Given that this is MC, he's kinda hard to read based on his performances against fodder. But the higher the better! I NEED GAME FUELS, 61! Lopen's prediction: Master Chief – 53.37% Raiden – 30.61% Kain – 10.01% Layton – 6.01% Transience’s Analysis holy Big Boss. I'd argue that Kirby/Lucas/Jinjo is a tougher fourpack than Raiden/Kain/Layton, so in order for Master Chief to be looked at as the favourite he needs 50%, something I wouldn't expect out of some Noble Nine members, let alone Master Chief. of course, there's going to be a Raiden in the way to mess things up, and he'd need another Naked Snake picture to capitalize on it, but still, Mega Man went up against Nero/Banjo/Olimar and only got 51%. Kirby destroys all those guys. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/12/2008 9:18:37 PM | message detail | #356 |
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Raiden has been a contest joke over the two years he's been in, getting rocked by Snake (not exactly fair) and struggle to beat Sam Fisher.
Raiden looks pretty clearly below all the other second-tier MGS guys -
Liquid, Ocelot, Big Boss. MGS4 should be huge for him though, as he
goes from whiny blonde dude who isn't Snake to badass cyborg
gekko-spinnin' savin' Snake's ass over and over dude. if MGS4 is as big
as it looks, Raiden could arguably give Master Chief a scare. but no one outside of Kleenex or other choice fanboys can honestly predict that when you've got one of last year's biggest successes in the poll. Chief's big question mark is if Halo 3's ultimately lukewarm reception will "de-boost" him since he was clearly on hype steroids last year. Chief shouldn't have much trouble here but if Raiden shows he's legit we may have an interesting set of percentages here. otherwise this is probably your typical 40/30/20/10 snoozefest. as for Kain and Layton, Kain will be stronger than Cecil on account of a more recognizable character design and Layton will get his 8-10% from that niche fanbase. woo. Metal Gear Solid boosting cyborgs to the sky Chief better watch out transience's prediction: Master Chief with 44.44%, Raiden with 31.44%, Kain with 15.66%, Layton with 8.46% Ngamer’s Analysis Hooo boy, what a crazy showing from BB today! HOWEVER, people are going way overboard in terms of what this result will mean the rest of the way. I'm hearing ravings about "the death of Nintendo" (just absurd) and "massive MGS4 boost" (uh, hello, did you see Snake drop the ball only a week back?) and "Big Boss to win the division alongside MC!" Sorry, not buying it. The best way to explain this result in my opinion is by observing that not only does BB look great, he also looks almost EXACTLY like Brawl Snake, with the addition of an eye patch. I seems as though casual Smashers though they had the choice of three characters, and since it's very much a case of Snake > Kirby > Lucas within Brawl, that's how much of the undecided votes were swung. In any case, the trouble is that even if there has been a massive MGS4 boost, that's only going to work against BB in R2, in the form of Raiden. Let's not forget that Nintendo isn't the only company that suffers from LFF- next time around Kirby will be on the right side of it, and I bet that's more than enough to swing the results back in his favor. Speaking of Raiden and that (probably not all that MASSIVE) MGS4 boost, let's see where he'd be boosting from! Last Known Values: Master Chief - 37.79% (2007) Raiden - 18.96% (2007) Kain - new Layton - new Even though I don't like MC at all as a character, he's definitely one of the funnest Contest entrants we're ever seen. What joy to see him flop left and right in 1v1s, and on the other hand, what a thrill to watch him suddenly Hulk up to a virtual NNer the minute we switch into 4-ways! I'm expecting another powerhouse showing from the King of the Xbox tonight, although I doubt it ends up being quite as dominating as his R1 from back in '07 just because there won't be any Vercetti to casual SFF. The real question of the day will be Raiden. Is he really as weak as he looked last Summer, or was some of that the result of voters not recognizing him inside all of that toaster armor? If it was just recognition holding him back, then he certainly would be on track for big gains now that everyone interested in the series would have played through MGS4. Even after seeing Liquid and BB look so good, I'm hesitant to get my hopes up too far for Raiden in this one. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/12/2008 9:19:23 PM | message detail | #357 |
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though, might he even be in danger of getting knocked out early by
Kain? Ehhhh, not really. Yes Square has turned in some good showings to
this point, but they've all come from new-school Square, while the
older games have failed to impress. Plus he looks like total junk in
that match pic. That leaves just Layton. Now just looking over the
names of our 128 entrants, I'd certainly have considered the Prof for
the position of weakest of the whole pack. But after seeing him in this
match pic, I've got to admit that this was a pretty favorable draw for
him. He stands out like a sore thumb, is the only non-mature option,
and has a funny enough name that he might get some joke support. Plus
in a match with MC, you know there's always going to be plenty of
anti-votes to go around. All the considered, I'd be surprised if he
fell into the single digits in this one. Alright, so with MC going off on a sizeable blowout, with Raiden comfortably in 2nd and Layton looking perhaps a touch better than expected, that would shake out to about... Master Chief - 45.19% Raiden - 22.80% Kain Highwind - 18.55% Professor Layton - 13.46% AWESOME. Ngamer Says: Master Chief > Raiden Guest’s Analysis - Kleenex If there's one thing this contest has done so far, it's weed out the fodder of the fodder. How many sub-10% characters have we seen so far? We've had 4 in the past 5 days (yeah Lucas was probably being SFF'd a bit, but still). We might get another one of those today, but it depends on how well the other three do. Kain Highwind - The DS remake of FF4 allowed for a bunch of characters that we really didn't need to see to get into the bracket. After Cecil disappointed in the first match, Zack or no Zack, Kain probably doesn't have high hopes here. Master Chief - Last year the Chief (all hail) went on a tear through the bracket and only lost a spot in the finals because of a certain tetris piece. This was right off the heels of Halo 3, but the Chief should still have a great run in this format for the second time. Professor Layton - Another newcomer this year, and one who will probably be fighting to keep it above 10%. Not sure what sales looked like on his game, but I can't imagine they were very impressive. Awesome as Layton may be, he won't be making waves. Raiden - raidenfear let's do this. Raiden disappointed last year, but he actually has MGS4 behind him now and with MGS characters doing well so far, he should do great especially because he didn't get another stupid toaster pi- Oh wait. Bacon clearly wanted to give Master Chief a chance here, because if Raiden had gotten his proper picture, there would be no debate here. http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c38/NeoX-Death/RaidenRd1.png Seriously. Maybe we can get a close-up of Raiden's junk in Round 2 or something ANYWAY BACK TO THE ANALYSIS. Master Chief should dominate this fourpack, which he probably will, and then we can get to ol' Chief > Sonic hype train a-rollin'. I doubt we'll see quite the same Chief we saw last year, but with the site's supposed turn towards more casual games, he's got this one wrapped up with a pretty little bow on top. Second place really shouldn't be a question here either. Raiden certainly could have done better last year, but against the competition, he'd have to bomb pretty hardcore to let either Kain or Layton sneak by. With MGS4 under his belt and with MGS characters impressing thus far, the chances of that are extremely slim. I mean, did you see Big Boss yesterday? MASTER CHIEF WATCH YOUR BACK. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/12/2008 9:19:56 PM | message detail | #358 |
| Kain and Layton fight for scraps with Chief and
Raiden likely taking up nearly 70% of this poll. Kain should do better,
and I wouldn't be shocked to see him do better than we'd expect Cecil
to. I guess Layton could impress somehow, but that would be pretty
surprising. This should be a pretty straightforward match (whoops, how
many times have we said that). Kleenex's Predictions Kain Highwind - 15.84% Master Chief - 42.47% Professor Layton - 12.14% Raiden - 29.55% An just for fun, here's the upset prediction that has a .0002% chance of happening. Kleenex's Bonus WE MANAGED TO AVOID DROWNING Super-Special WESKERVERSE Predictions that aren't happening (seriously, use the other ones) Kain Highwind - 16.55% Master Chief - 36.58% Professor Layton - 10.22% Raiden - 36.65% Crew Consensus: MC > Raiden here, though HM has the opposite. |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/12/2008 9:21:28 PM | message detail | #359 |
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but no one outside of Kleenex whoops or other choice fanboys damn you HM --- CB7 Score: 66/84 http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg || http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg |
| ZFS | Posted 10/12/2008 9:22:34 PM | message detail | #360 |
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spinnin' gekkoz --- kept you waiting, huh |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/12/2008 9:23:15 PM | message detail | #361 |
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HM has this in the bag --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/12/2008 9:29:13 PM | message detail | #362 |
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DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis: Ugh, I was doing so good, now two 2-point matches in a row. Hopefully this is an easy stepping stone to my upset pick the following day that I'm not all that confident in. Layton shouldn't be worth anything, even as a joke character, he gets 4th. Kain is from FF, but I can't have much confidence in FF4, and we saw how Cecil did in his showing, he gets 3rd. Raiden will look nice as an MGS character, especially after the impressive showing by Big Boss today....but he gets 2nd. Master Chief has shown to dominate in this format, which is also due in part to a great increase in his acceptance and popularity on the site overall. He strives on the mainstream vote, and there's not really much that's gonna take away from that in this match. Say what you want about an MGS4 boost, but you have to go 360 > PS3 any day of the week, and Raiden was way too far off MC's level as of last year. Besides, if MC finishes 2nd, I can pretty much crumble up my bracket and toss it out the window. Dp's bracket says: Master Chief > Raiden Dp's prediction is: Master Chief > Raiden Confidence: 90% Master Chief - 47.50% Raiden - 26.50% Kain - 17.50% Layton - 8.50% --- NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!! Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008 |
| Lopen | Posted 10/12/2008 9:51:42 PM | message detail | #363 |
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Holy Master Chief underestimation. I thought 48% was what he should get in this one, conservatively. Do you guys really think this 4 pack is at all comparable to his 4 pack last year in R1? And hell yes at nekkid cartwheel shilling from Kleenex. And he may have been joking, but I actually would've went for the upset here if he got that pic. Nekkid cartwheels to tap into that almighty joke vote? You damn skippy. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 10/12/2008 11:51:38 PM | message detail | #364 |
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Holy Master Chief underestimation. I thought 48% was what he should
get in this one, conservatively. Do you guys really think this 4 pack
is at all comparable to his 4 pack last year in R1? *coughs up a lung* --- Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/ Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
| BDawg | Posted 10/12/2008 11:53:01 PM | message detail | #365 |
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Maybe Chief is saving up for the greatest after school vote in the history of forever. --- Should I start running now? |
| Lopen | Posted 10/12/2008 11:53:10 PM | message detail | #366 |
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My bracket is already in shambles I don't need you coughing lungs at me! --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 10/13/2008 2:50:50 AM | message detail | #367 |
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Well that's true, I'd certainly think that Raiden/Kain/Layton are
significantly weaker with the Day Vote than Yuna/Vercetti/Parappa, so I
wouldn't count out the possibility of seeing one of the greatest ASV
pushes of all time. Even so, with how badly he started and how owned
he's getting here in the overnight, even an incredible push couldn't
get him back up to what we had expected. Or even all that close. --- Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/ Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
| transience | Posted 10/13/2008 2:57:13 AM | message detail | #368 |
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funny match. there's a lot of ways to interpret this. round 2 should be fun. --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/13/2008 10:48:08 AM | message detail | #369 |
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Big Boss..........48.08% 66033 Jinjo....................9.49% 13034 Kirby..................36.78% 50515 Lucas.....................5.65% 7766 TOTAL VOTES............137348 What Happened - darn you naked snake. Big Boss ends up dominating this fourpack, even with Kirby in the mix! Jinjo and Lucas both end up under 10% as well, ouch. Kirby started out close, but quickly fell behind during the power hour. The night vote was brutal to him, as Big Boss pulled out huge gains. Kirby did a bit better during the day, but this match wasn't even in question after the first 10 minutes. Why it Happened - Many people are pointing to the picture as the reason for BB's overperformance. He's done it before with the pic, and when you look at how badly he beat Kirby, unless you think BB is now at Squall's level or around there, then yeah, the pic is the likely cause. Kirby may have also fell in line with the rest of Nintendo too, but nothing to drop him into midcard-status or anything crazy. Jinjo also got a few joke votes, and Lucas..well that's what happens when you only have hardcore Mother fans to pull from. What Will Happen - If BB gets another Snake pic, can he beat down Raiden enough to advance again? Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay guys who called this right (very impressive)! Yoblazer - 18 Ngamer - 17 Tran - 16 HM - 16 Moltar - 14 Guest - 14 Lopen - 12 Crew Accuracy Challenge - HM and Yo get points for BB, Ngamer gets the point for Kirby, Tran gets the point for Jinjo, and Lopen gets the point for Lucas Yoblazer - 22 Moltar - 21 HM - 17 Ngamer - 17 Tran - 13 Lopen - 13 Guest (War, KP (2), Dp, Justin, greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai) - 10 --- Moltar Status: augh Kain/MC/Layton/Raiden - Bracket: MC > Raiden - Vote: Raiden (77/100) |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/13/2008 9:55:01 PM | message detail | #370 |
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Division 7: Round 1 - Match 27 – Captain MacMillan vs. Leon Kennedy vs. Riku vs. Siegfried Schtauffen Moltar’s Analysis MacMillan Game/Series Known From: Call of Duty 4 2007 Results: N/A Just screams Nathan Hale 2.0 to me Leon Game/Series Known From: Resident Evil 2007 Results: 1st Place in Round 1 vs. Vivi, Ridley and Spyro 1st Place in Round 2 vs. Pikachu, Vivi and Tidus 3rd Place in Round 3 vs. Pikachu, Dante and Amaterasu The unintentionally hilarious Leon Kennedy returns! Riku Game/Series Known From: Kingdom Hearts 2007 Results: 2nd Place in Round 1 vs. Ryu H., Roxas and Haseo 2nd Place in Round 2 vs. Solid Snake, Ryu H. and Nightmare 4th Place in Round 3 vs. Solid Snake, L-Block and Kratos That other guy from KH gets his turn Siegfried Game/Series Known From: Soul Calibur 2007 Results: N/A So Nightmare and not Nightmare got in? Mac last Sieg third. Let’s get them out of the way (and their names are tough to type). So Riku and Leon go at for first place. First up is Leon, who started off well last year with a dominating performance. He beat Vivi by 10%. Round 2 showed us another strong performance from Leon. However, Round 3 was just awful. A lot of people thought that Dante and Leon would have some overlap, since they’re both badass characters from kinda similar action games. Well, it looks like there was a split, as Leon looked weak, and Dante failed to beat Pikachu, even though Leon crushed Pikachu the round before. As for Riku, his path was interesting as well. In the first round, he had to deal with Roxas in the poll, which hurt his chances against Ryu H. However, the actual result was worse than many people expected, as Riku would have needed all of Roxas’s votes to have beaten Ryu H. Round 2 was much different though. Snake’s presence in the poll killed Ryu H., and Riku managed to sneak by. Then, in Round 3, Riku barely budged in percentage even though L-Block and Kratos had joined the poll. So it’s tough to say who gets first here. This time around, Leon and Riku aren’t hurt by the other characters here, so it kind of comes down to who’s stronger. Leon seems more impressive in the format, but Riku was hurt in all his matches…augh this is tough. I’m going to go with Leon though. Moltar’s Bracket Says: Leon > Riku Moltar’s Prediction is: Leon: 38% - Riku: 34% - Seigfried: 19% - MacMillan: 9% Yoblazer’s Analysis Welcome, one and all, to a match I won't be spending much time on! We're down to TWO days before the big Sandy showdown, and while I may be counting the minutes with half-glee and half-trepidation, that still doesn't mean I'll want to bust out the meaty paragraphs for any old match! This one isn't that tough to analyze, anyway, so let's do it. Our competitors are Captain MacMillan from Call of Duty 4, Leon Kennedy from Resident Evil 2 and RE4, Riku from the Kingdom Hearts series, and Siegfried from the Soul Calibur series. Captain MacMillan will probably be bad fodder. I don't think many voters are raring to throw their support behind a generic wartime FPS character, and Mac is further handicapped by having a terribly unappealing picture. Under normal circumstances, I would have given him under 10%, but I just recently found out he was nominated (at least in part) as a joke entrant and may be receiving marginal joke support from some of the Internet's less desirable corners. Either way, he'll still be bad and should finish in last place by a mile. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/13/2008 9:55:26 PM | message detail | #371 |
| Siegfried is the second Soul Calibur character
we've seen, and if he's anything like the first (Nightmare), he might
have some pop to him. After all, he is Nightmare's alterego and has
starred in nearly every game in the series since the original Soul
Edge. I'm not expecting him to be like Nightmare, though. Nightmare is
generally regarded as the face of the series and its most popular
character. Siegfried is (apparently) not, and he doesn't have nearly as
badass a name. He might be good enough to crack the very low 20s, but
he still shouldn't contend for second. Leon and Riku. Ah, now here's the meat (pretty sexy meat, too! Check out those supermodel poses!). These guys are locked up to advance, and while Riku can definitely make it a close result, I'm expecting Leon to earn his status as the huge Board 8 favorite. Last year, before he was ousted by Pikachu and Dante in one of the weirdest matches ever, Leon looked absolutely beastly. He beat Vivi by 10% in Round 1 and followed that up with a 10% win over Pikachu in Round 2. I really think you've gotta give him the benefit of the doubt and throw out his Round 3 match; it was just too flukey and something was obviously going on with Dante. Now, don't get me wrong, Riku looked pretty good last year as well. The Kingdom Hearts hearthrob managed a massive turnaround and beat Ryu Hayabusa in Round 2 after getting destroyed by the ninja in their previous match. Despite that performance, however, Riku's got nothing on what Leon managed in the first two rounds. The star of Resident Evil's most popular games looked too damn good before he got all weirdly SFF'D, and I'm expecting him to get started in 2008 without missing a step. *insert about a dozen Leon quotes here* ...oh fine Hey, it's that dog! Your right hand comes off? Saddler, you're small time! What did you say? Insects' lives don't compare to human life! LUUUUIIIIIIIIIISSSSSSSSS!!!!!!! MIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIKE!!!!!!!!!! Captain MacMillan - 11% Leon Kennedy - 38% Riku - 33% Siegfried Schtauffen - 18% Lopen’s Analysis Man, yesterday's match was ouch. Who knows what that really means as it relates to Master Chief... he was in a four pack of unknowns, basically, but I'd be lying if I didn't say I wasn't worried about him beating Dante, much less Sonic or Sephiroth SFFed Cloud. Anyway... that's not that important right now. What's important is calling this match. Man, I mean, without me you might not know that Leon is going to beat Riku, who will beat Siegfried "only guy who isn't Mega Man that has two entries in the bracket-- and my last name is awesome" Schtauffen and a shrubbery. I'm thinking the seaweed shrubbery will draw some joke votes, and it might also draw some fans... probably good enough to beat Siegfried, who should be quite a few notches below Nightmare. Still don't think he'll muster enough to beat Leon and Riku, though. As for Leon vs Riku? Kind of a toss-up, actually. Leon probably has the edge because he seemed to look like more of a force in this format than Riku did last year. Two rounds of 40% vs two rounds of 20%. Granted, Riku had tougher circumstances, but still, Leon just looked more impressive. And with Chris Redfield being a beast well, you've gotta think RE is dangerous this year. Then again, I guess Sora was beastly too. Also, I'd say Riku kinda sticks out more compared to these three characters, might help him out. I really don't think Riku's being given enough upset cred in this one. I considered it. Really, Riku and Leon have been about equally impressive in 1v1.. but I think Leon likes this format better. BUT the fact that Leon is not only the overwhelming favorite this round, but next round too with Dante there (remember? Beating yellow rat by 10% to losing to him by 10%?)... what the hell is wrong with this board. Give Riku some respect, dammit. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/13/2008 9:56:21 PM | message detail | #372 |
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Lopen's prediction: Leon Kennedy - 34.33% Riku - 31.33% Shrubbery - 20.01% Siegfried Schtauffen - 15.33% Transience’s Analysis blech, I have no idea what to say about this match. it's two solid midcarders and two pieces of fodder. I don't honestly have any idea who these other two guys are. so let's start with Leon and Riku. I'm sure others will mention this, but whatever: Leon got 45% on Bowser while Riku got 45% on Yoshi. that's pretty close to being statistically equal, but for whatever reason I don't trust Riku's number - maybe because KH2 isn't new and exciting, maybe because he didn't look all that great last year, maybe because Roxas kinda flopped earlier this year and Sora was only decent when you compare him to Mr. Redfield. Leon's gotten Wii ports since, RE5's getting big and Riku's just not in his class. I think he's a half-step behind. these other two things.. I don't even know. Macmillan looks like he could be epically bad, but that ridiculous picture probably gives him at least 10% and COD4 is really loved by this site, moreso than Halo 3. it's become the dominant FPS. Siegfried.. is like a lesser known Nightmare, I guess? I'd expected fodder, but I have no idea how low to go with him. this is all about Leon and Riku anyway. I feel like something weird could happen here though. Seaweed MacMillan not even the main character! why is he in this transience's prediction: Leon Kennedy with 41.13%, Riku with 36.56%, Siegfried whoever with 11.31%, Captain MacMillan with 11.00% Ngamer’s Analysis Annnd, here we go again! Like Mario and Cloud and Snake and Link etc etc before him, MC comes into this poll a heavy favorite for the win, but leaves with a heavily disappointing victory. Well actually, all the other NN and NN-breakers were just slightly disappointing, so clearly there was something at work here besides just anti-favoriteFAQs. I guess we were foolish to expect MC to remain at his 2007 levels given how hype and recent release-boosted they must have been... but even so, to finish at 37%? Come ON now! Of course the other way to spin this is that MGS4 has turned Raiden into a 4-way monster, which I might put some stock in if not for Kain. I mean honestly, how far above Kefka could any FF4 character be, really? So overall I'm leaning more towards Master Chief just coming way down from 10 months ago- which is awesome considering we're going to be seeing a weakened MC doing battle with an LFF-hurt Big Boss and an LFF-boosted Kirby in a few weeks. Fatal threeway, here we come! Looking ahead to tomorrow... hm, now this will be a tough nut to crack. Let's start by seeing how far the acorn fell from the tree last time around. Last Known Values: Leon - 27.70% (2007) Riku - 24.27% (2007) Siegfried - new MacMillan - new As I said, what an odd couple of characters. Who's the real Leon, the one who easily crunched Vivi and then Pikachu, or the guy who folded like a house of cards the minute Dante showed up? And who's the real Riku, the one who looked like total junk when Square SFF was in play, or the one who looked awesome in going toe to toe with Ryu H and Kratos once badass SFF arrived? Given the way Chris stunned us by doing better than awful the other day, I'm going to have to side with Resident Evil continuing the growth trend its displayed since RE4 and give Leon the benefit of the doubt here. That being said though, I'm betting that Riku does a better job of keeping it close than most are expecting, especially as he shouldn't have any serious competition for the ASV tomorrow afternoon. New Square has been putting up plenty of solid showings, and Sora's was just about the best of them all (although its entirely possible that I'm letting that pro-Fox bias get to my head again), so I'd still call it a mistake to count Riku out entirely. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/13/2008 9:56:55 PM | message detail | #373 |
| But wait, MacMillian is a 360 character- surely
he'll draw strong ASV support as well! Uh... have you SEEN him? The
guy's only in one CoD4 level (or so I hear) and you can play through
the entire single player campaign and not even remember him (again, or
so I've heard)- basically the guy looks like a walking joke, and he
should perform
like a walking joke, getting pushed out to a decent start by 4chan or
whatever other internet weirdoes find that seaweed hilarious before
collapsing the rest of the poll. (Apparently there's even a listing of
"Captain MacMillian Facts" out there somewhere, which makes his fad
what, a ripoff of a ripoff of a not all that original idea in the first
place? Yeah, I'm not expecting huge appeal across the board for this
guy.) Siegfried, hmm... yeah, not expecting him to make too much noise either. People seem to have gotten over their SC4 excitement pretty quickly, I don't see the game having given the series the true jump start it needed to become relevant again site-wide. As for Nightmare, I think much of his strength comes from his ridiculous character design and awesome name, while SS both looks and sounds much more generic. Plus he didn't get a huge sword to swing around in the match pic, drawing in casuals with every stroke. So if Leon's legit (until a scary fellow Capcomer arrives!), and Riku's legit (but not QUITE so legit), and Siegfried is pretty bad, and MacMillian is just awful (past the first 90 minutes), then we're looking at something like: Leon Kennedy - 37.97% Riku - 31.79% Siegfried Schtauffen - 17.82% Captain MacMillan - 12.42% That looks... perfect! Ngamer Says: Leon > Riku Guest’s Analysis - satai_delenn Okay. This time you get a proper guest analysis from me. For a match that's actually kind of interesting! So here we go. First let's talk about newcomer Captain McYeti, since I...I don't even know why he's here. From what I hear, he shows up in a flashback or two and is otherwise not even a real character in the game? Really? Huh. Yeah, o…okay. …so first let's talk about newcomer Siegfried. Haven't we seen this guy already? Yeah, yeah, Nightmare != Siegfried, but still. This reminds me of the "Arthas is/isn't the same character as the Lich King" arguments. It strikes me as pretty funny that they're both here. But Siegfried has one of the coolest last names ever, surely he's better! Schtauffen. So fun to say out loud. Honestly, I don't play SC much, but I've heard way more about Nightmare than I've heard about Siegfried. He seems like one of those protagonists whose alter ego/rival/villain/what have you is much cooler than he is. So I think he'll do decently well, given that fighting games and Xbox characters tend to do decently well in this format, but I think he'll fall a bit short of Nightmare's relative success. Time for the good stuff. Leon vs. Riku. We've already seen some matches this year vaguely related to these two—a bunch of Square characters impressed and, more specifically/relevantly, Sora made a fine showing, while at the same time Chris Redfield held up fairly well against the likes of Sora and Fox. We have disparate individual fanbases in this match, so no worries on the direct SFF front. So who wins? Well, check it out. Back in 2006, Yoshi defeated Riku (grrrr) in round 1 with 55.2%. In the very next round, Yoshi defeated Dante (grrrrr) with 50.55%. So at that point, Riku was roughly 5% weaker than Dante. We know that Dante is stronger than Leon, even taking that DMC/RE QXGJPFF we all know and love into consideration; that alone can't explain how much worse Leon performed than Dante against the thrice-damned rat last year. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/13/2008 9:58:03 PM | message detail | #374 |
| …why am I extrapolating relative strength through
Dante? Well uh…the Yoshi thing traumatized me, it's easy to remember,
or something. >_> Or possibly it's just to make up for abandoning
my tradition of doing a guest writeup for Dante's matches every round.
Anyway, the point is, ostensibly Riku and Leon are something like
comparable. Leon's the favorite here—main character of the most popular
game in a pretty popular, multi-platform series—but it should be a
pretty close match, right? Yep. But between this year's NeoSquareFAQs
popping up in unexpected places, Siegfried sapping Leon's casual
appeal, and me liking Riku better, I think Riku can pull it out. Who's here to rain on his parade? The yeti? Leon shares a bit of casual bait status with this CoD flashback guy (if you can even say he has a status) and a lot of it with Siegfried. He shares pretty much nothing at all with Riku. People will point to last year's round 1 match in which Riku got pounded by Ryu Hayabusa—Ryu is pretty much the epitome of casual bait—and protest that Ryu got more than Riku and Roxas combined, but look at the bigger picture. Ryu was the only one in that first match taking casual or apathy votes, while Riku was sharing his votes with someone from his own series and another, much more niche RPG character. Don't throw Haseo (who?) out the window here—he wasn't making any waves, but he did get votes. And how many of a niche RPG character's votes are going to go to the Xbox action game character if you take him out of the poll? Not very many. In the second round, as soon as Ryu was no longer the only one drawing from that casual/apathy crowd (and hey, Nightmare was even involved), he couldn't scrounge enough votes out of Snake's leftovers to beat the only RPG character in the poll. So back to Leon. He's not Ryu Hayabusa—he has a strong fanbase of his own that isn't swayed by the presence of things like Soul Calibur. But Riku has a strong fanbase of his own too, and the Square fans have nothing else to even consider voting for here. And don't forget Dante…! >_> Come on, Riku. This is your year to actually win a match outright. Do it. satai's vote: Riku satai's prediction: Riku > Leon Captain MacMillan – 7.24% Leon Kennedy – 35.28% Riku – 36.35% Siegfried Schtauffen – 21.13% Crew Consensus: Leon > Riku, save for the Guest who has the Riku upset |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/13/2008 10:06:16 PM | message detail | #375 |
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DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis: This may have been a bit of a stretch, but for whatever reason I convinced myself and I went with a Riku > Leon upset pick. I guess my reasoning came down to Kingdom Hearts > Resident Evil. Leon may be stronger than Riku, but maybe it's not by much. And the way that Square has performed in this contest, it makes me feel a bit better. Also, I think that Leon may be more susceptible to losing votes to Siegfried and MacMillan than Riku would be, and the KH fanbase may be a bit more devoted. Dp's bracket says: Riku > Leon Dp's prediction is: Riku > Leon Confidence: 50% Riku - 36% Leon - 33% Siegfried - 17% MacMillan - 14% --- NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!! Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008 |
| Lopen | Posted 10/13/2008 10:18:33 PM | message detail | #376 |
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Dammit, I remember, you even told me he was just some flashback guy, satai. I totally would've had him 5% lower. That's right, only 5%. SHRUBBERYFEAR. Good to see some people went with Riku though. He deserves it, he's got a good chance here. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe QXGJPFF |
| satai_delenn | Posted 10/13/2008 10:25:19 PM | message detail | #377 |
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"Shrubberyfear", what have we done to our terminology. --- Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE! aww yeah you know it |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2008 10:26:16 PM | message detail | #378 |
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our idiotic terminology is so far past gone that you might as well move in for the kill. --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/13/2008 10:27:15 PM | message detail | #379 |
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*high-five satai for Riku > Leon* --- NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!! Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008 |
| satai_delenn | Posted 10/13/2008 10:31:46 PM | message detail | #380 |
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*high five!* --- Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE! |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 10/13/2008 11:34:25 PM | message detail | #381 |
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MISTER Kennnnedy just called, he's demanding those high fives back. --- Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/ Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
| satai_delenn | Posted 10/13/2008 11:37:33 PM | message detail | #382 |
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He can't have 'em! ;_; Man. Obviously it was an upset pick, but I kind of expected Riku to like...not suck utterly. Well, it should look a hell of a lot closer by tomorrow afternoon...but still. --- Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE! |
| Lopen | Posted 10/13/2008 11:47:51 PM | message detail | #383 |
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Well, at least you have the points, satai. Sorry for encouraging you
that Riku had a chance. Probably a lot my fault you went through with
the upset here. Did not expect this. Ridiculous. I still like Riku for round 2, though...! --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/14/2008 9:52:10 AM | message detail | #384 |
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Kain Highwind................25.42% 34477 Master Chief....................36.82% 49936 Professor Layton.................9.4% 12744 Raiden..............................28.35% 38447 TOTAL VOTES............................135604 What Happened - Wow Chief, no Halo 3 this year means performances like this? Not only does Chief let Raiden get close (which is kind of understandable), but Kain does exceptionally well in this match. Could he be the strongest Old Square character we've seen yet? Why it Happened - Not exactly sure why Kain did so well when everything else old Square, save a few matches, has looked bad. Did the DS remake help him out? Or did he always have this strength? Raiden, well, with Kain doing so well and Chief doing so poorly, it's hard to see how much MGS4 helped him out. Chief also looks bad here now that Halo 3 hype is long gone, but again, with this competition, it's too hard to tell exactly what happened. For Chief's sake, he better hope that everyone here was just strong. What Will Happen - BB/Kirby/Chief/Raiden, everyone was counting on BB and Raiden to kill each other before, but after BB's dominating performance and Chief's flop...anything could happen now. Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay everyone (except HM)! Yoblazer - 19 Ngamer - 18 Tran - 17 HM - 16 Moltar - 15 Guest - 15 Lopen - 13 Crew Accuracy Challenge - HM gets a point for MC, Kleenex gets a point for Raiden, Ngamer gets the point for Kain, and Tran gets the point for Layton Yoblazer - 22 Moltar - 21 HM - 18 Ngamer - 18 Tran - 14 Lopen - 13 Guest (War, KP (2), Dp, Justin, greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai, Klennex) - 11 --- Moltar Status: augh MacMillan/Leon/Riku/Siegfried - Bracket: Leon > Riku - Vote: Leon (81/104) |
| The Mana Sword | Posted 10/14/2008 12:25:18 PM | message detail | #385 |
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Kleenex gets a point for Raiden victory --- Kleenex - Not on his computer. |
| Chaotic Mind | Posted 10/14/2008 1:44:04 PM | message detail | #386 |
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Wow you guys really lowballed Kain. I think i need to explain a few things. Let's start with Cecil's match. Yeah he only got 16%, but there's two reasons for that. First, ZACK F'ING FAIR! (yes i'm a believer come on ZackFAQS!) SFFed the hell out of Cecil. Second, Cecil's pic. That pic is not recognizable to anyone who hasn't played the DS remake, he's a paladin instead of a dark knight, and the design is obviously based on Amano art which always hurts Square characters. Also, Lopen got it backwards. It's Kain>Cecil, not the other way around. At least according to most FFIV fans that i've talked to, though i myself didn't like Kain. Based on their performances, i'd expect Cecil be a midcard to low-midcard and Kain to be a high midcard if they return next year. --- Proud member of the A1 Steak Sauce Guild |
| transience | Posted 10/14/2008 1:45:27 PM | message detail | #387 |
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it's tough to put Kain too high when the more popular FF6 can't get a single character with strength. --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| Luis_Sera89 | Posted 10/14/2008 7:39:08 PM | message detail | #388 |
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**** just realised I hadn't sent in my analysis yet. Give me a while. --- "Eet's game time..." |
| Salasar Elerital | Posted 10/14/2008 7:45:45 PM | message detail | #389 |
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I would suppose that's something along the lines of Kain being the very
first final fantasy dragoon known outside Japan, and such he is
somewhat of an archetype for the class. Add in that Kain's name is common in almost every modern Final Fantasy that has spears among his weapons since "Kain's Lance" has became the trademark name of second-best spear, and that spear usually sports a brief description about how Kain is the most famous/cool/skilled/legendary dragoon ever. Also while I do not believe the whole "he get FFVII fanboys votes due to the highwind surname" point, the fact that a FFVII character was designed to be an homage to Kain (not only based on the surname, but even in the weaponry and the dragoonish limits breaks) should show how much Kain is a fan favorite compared to say... Cecil or Rydia that have no appearance outside FFIV (unless you want to count Secret of Evermore *shrugs*). The most intriguing fact is that Kain managed to score that much with a picture that absolutely did NOT resemble him at all. That *thing* was dragoonish, but absolutely not Kain. Now that I think about FF characters with constant homages in modern FFs... how about Gilgamesh? Between being a fan favorite and having made an appearance in a considerable amount of games (including all the GBA remakes) he could actually be strong. |
| Salasar Elerital | Posted 10/14/2008 7:52:12 PM | message detail | #390 |
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it's tough to put Kain too high when the more popular FF6 can't get a single character with strength FF6 could be a more popular game, but are FF6 character's really more popular than Kain? I do not see many "Edgard's Lance" or "Cid Branford" around. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/14/2008 9:45:41 PM | message detail | #391 |
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Division 7: Round 1 - Match 28 – Dante vs. Hogger vs. Laharl vs. Ramza Beoluve Moltar’s Analysis Dante Game/Series Known From: Devil May Cry 2007 Results: 1st Place in Round 1 vs. Amaterasu, Little Mac and Matt 1st Place in Round 2 vs. Amaterasu, Ada and Balthier 2nd Place in Round 3 vs. Pikachu, Leon and Amaterasu 2nd Place in Round 4 vs. Master Chief, Luigi and Pikachu 4th Place in Round 5 vs. L-Block, Solid Snake and Master Chief Even the DMC fodder enemies are tougher than this fourpack Hogger Game/Series Known From: World of Warcraft 2007 Results: N/A augh Laharl Game/Series Known From: Disgaea 2007 Results: 3rd Place in Round 1 vs. Kirby, L-Block and Nathan Hale augh Ramza Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy Tactics 2007 Results: N/A augh Really? This is Dante’s fourpack? What’s up with him and horribly weak groups anyway? Last year, he had a free trip to the semi-finals. This year…at least his starting path is still easy. So Dante wins, and…Ramza for second? The last time we saw Ramza was back in 2003 when he lost to Kirby. We all know Laharl couldn’t even be a Tetris piece and Hogger can just get outta here stupid wow joke So yeah, this match doesn’t even deserve any more words. Moltar’s Bracket Says: Dante > Ramza Moltar’s Prediction is: Dante: 48% - Ramza: 23% - Laharl: 18% - Hogger: 11% Heroic Mario’s Analysis This match is all about Dante. How badly does he wreck this pack? Probably worse than what he last year -- 50%+ seems like a good bet. Second place has been somewhat debated (as much as a match with Ramza and "Hogger" can be argued), but I've never put any thought into it -- Ramza is the clear choice. There is an argument that Hogger could benefit from joke votes or whatever, but I doubt many people even know what it is, much less that it's supposed to be a "joke." You'd have to be hardcore into World of Warcraft -- and most of this site is the furthest thing from 'hardcore.' What's more interesting to me is how well Dante does. If he can put up a show here, he'll be the favorite to win this division after Chief's bomb (damn you sprite round Big Boss could have cruised outta here). With DMC4 under his belt (highest selling DMC game, takes on a MGS2 Snake kinda role), he might even be stronger than last year. The only thing that makes me second guess him breaking 50% is that it's a pack full of niche RPG characters -- those always tend to have core fanbases that will come out in mid-to-high teens to support their character. Gotta hope for a Hogger bomb. Prediction: Dante -- 51% ; Ramza - 20% ; Laharl - 16% ; Hogger - 13% Bracket: Dante > Ramza Vote: Dante Yoblazer’s Analysis One more day until the Great Sandy Showdown of 2008. Man, if you could smell my level of excitement, you might need to crack open a window, bwaha! We've still got one match standing between us and oblivion, however, and it's also a match where a wacky thing or two may happen. Shall we? Up today are Dante from the Devil May Cry series, Hogger from World of Warcraft, Laharl from Disgaea, and Ramza from Final Fantasy Tactics. Unsurprisingly, Dante is the obvious winner. The guy has grown from a decent midcarder to a Top 15 stud over the years, and there is no one else in this remarkably uneven group who can approach his strength. I don't think he'll hit 50% (even the big boys have had trouble getting up there), but the high 40s are certainly within range. Dante isn't the question, though. The question is who finishes in second. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/14/2008 9:46:05 PM | message detail | #392 |
| Of the three able-bodied lambs to the slaughter
(Dante havin a BBQ, aw yeah), Laharl is the one we've seen most. From
what we've seen, he hasn't been very impressive. Yes, he has a core
fanbase, but he doesn't have much else beyond that. While I won't say
his advancing is an outright impossibility (pretty damn close), it
would only be realistic if Dante gobbles up percentage like a demented
Noble 9 crusher and his other two foes bomb depressingly. No one
expects that, which means most of us feel the only two guys with a shot
at second are Hogger and Ramza. Let's talk about Ramza first. We've actually seen him before, back in an age when Kingdom Hearts and Master Chief were still in diapers. In 2003, Ramza faced Kirby and actually managed to hold his own, putting up an impressive 42.3%. Granted, the Kirby of 2003 isn't as strong as the one we've seen in more recent years, but it was a respectable result for the Final Fantasy Tactics star, regardless. He and his game may have aged, but he still has a core fanbase and his status as the main character of a surprisingly popular Final Fantasy title. Under normal circumstances, that would give him a unanimous edge over a guy with a description like Hogger's. Of course, these are not normal times, and Hogger is not a normal character. Hogger is a standard, one-shot enemy from World of Warcraft. That usually wouldn't grant one much cause for concern, but Hogger was nominated as a joke entrant in what is proving to be the year of the jokes. Apparently, the WoW guys think he's funny or something. The WoW fanbase and rally potential is his biggest upside. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on what's penned in your bracket), he also has some major downsides. Unlike L-Block, WCC, or even Sandbag, Hogger is not an instantly recognizable joke character at all. He's a normal looking character with a normal (yet kinda stupid) name. He isn't a part of any Internet fads outside of WoW. He is a complete product of the WoW community, and he will be relying on their support and nothing but to make it. Now, if Thrall couldn't pull it out in a similar scenario last year, I don't have much hope for Hogger. Believe it or not, even being a longtime, regular WoW player doesn't even guarantee you'll know about Hogger. Any faith I may have considered putting in him was instantly burned when I discovered that my brother, a guy who has put over 1,000 hours into World of Warcraft, didn't even know who Hogger was. Yeah, bad sign. If that's any indication, Hogger won't even be in Thrall's league, and will need Laharl and Ramza to both bomb and split RPG fanbase votes if he wants to advance. I don't see it. Bottom line: Dante kills, Ramza with a distant yet comfy second. Dante - 47% Hogger - 15% Laharl - 15% Ramza Beoulve - 23% Lopen’s Analysis Well, alright, this match has a pretty obvious first place... Dante with stylish combos, guns, swords, glory, and all that whoops those Strategy RPG freaks down, and also destroys this Slogger thing that is apparently from World of Warcraft. He wins this in style, beating all three at once, because Dante excels at owning multiple foes at the same time. Second place is supposed to be interesting, so some people say. Apparently this Slogger thing is a WoW joke character, or something? Well, let me just say I saw its picture... and no one is going to get it if they haven't played WoW. Also, from what I've heard, you only know what it is if you play Orcs horde Paladin while being debuffed with four stam to manas during a low level raid, or something. Okay, as all five of you who have played WoW on this site know, I'm totally BSing here as to why not every WoW player has come across this joke. But the moral of the story is true: Not every WoW player knows what it is, for whatever reason that is I don't know. Also, you've gotta figure even less still like the thing. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/14/2008 9:46:50 PM | message detail | #393 |
| So what does that mean? That means that rallying
might not even help it that much. Think Kerrigan/Vincent. "HEY GUYZ
VOTE FOR THE SLOGGER MONSTER AT GAMEFAQS KTHX." "Dude that thing is
lam-- OH GAWD IS THAT THE DANTE SPARDA!?"
That's right, Dante is just that awesome. Any rally attempts are
futile. An isolated joke character won't get the undying support of the
fanbase, assuming the rally can even get the job done vs Ramza. Ramza's no joke. Even though Kirby looked pretty weak this year, you can't underestimate 43% on Kirby. You've gotta assume Laharl hits him with a bit of the strategy RPG SFF, weakening him, but even then... Ramza's a low midcarder, you can't just rally anything to victory over him. Meanwhile, a non rallied Slogger will be so weak (WoW doesn't have much support around here as the polls will tell you... Arthas is largely WC3 driven, I think) I doubt he can even beat Laharl while rallying his heart out. Specially with Dante hitting him with rally SFF. Lopen's Prediction THE DANTE SPARDA!? - 53.12% Ramza - 23.01% Laharl - 14.04% Slogger - 9.83% Transience’s Analysis I loathe this match. it's two strategy RPG characters and the World of Warcraft version of the Midgar Zolom. the fourth guy is of course Dante, and I think he's going to absolutely rock this pack. people will be calling for Dante to walk out of his division, and the really crazy might call him the favourite over Sonic should he get that far. Dante's got a joke pack here, and unless Ramza has a Vivi-like performance there's not much stopping him from taking half the votes. the talk of this match has Ramza vs. Hogger, but I think most reasonable people expect Hogger to be awful. even World of Warcraft players expect him to bomb. Hogger could surprise, but whatever. the main thing going for him (it?) is that Ramza and Laharl share a bit of a fanbase; most Disgaea fans got introduced into the genre by way of FFT. Laharl probably hurts Ramza, but unless Hogger shows he can get 15%, I kind of feel like Laharl vs. Hogger will be the only matchup to even bother watching. Ramza's pretty old being on Zidane's level would be impressive transience's prediction: Dante with 53.44%, Ramza with 22.44%, Laharl with 15.01%, Hogger with 9.11% Ngamer’s Analysis Gracious, you're got to put Leon right up there with Sora and Squall in that small list of characters that actually impressed while finishing first. I suppose it's not all that crazy- this is the same Leon that scored a 40-30 on Vivi, and I'd certainly have expected Vivi to be stronger than Riku in this format... but not THIS much stronger, especially considering how the Magician and Seaweed-wearer ought to have had more in common with Mr. Kennedy. Maybe everything RE will just keep gaining steam until RE5 hits? I didn't realize hype levels were this high. Enough of that- on to two of the more exciting battles of R1 in my opinion! First comes Hogger, and tomorrow, the Sandman strikes. Let's try to get a bead on this Dante poll to start. Last Known Values: Dante - 33.17% (2007) Ramza - 22.31% (2003) Hogger - new Laharl - 11.23% (2007) |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/14/2008 9:47:12 PM | message detail | #394 |
|
Darn that SB and his slight delay before starting this Contest! This
match should haven taken place yesterday or the day before- Blizzcon
was just ending and Blizzard fans worldwide were hitting up all the
fansites to get the latest info, while at the same time WoW players had
no choice but to sit around bored downloading the 1.2 GB Wrath of the
Lich King pre-patch and waiting for the servers to come back online.
That 1 or 2 day delay could very well cost Hogger this match- Blizzard
fans know all the big news already and won't be refreshing the fan
pages, and WoW came back online about 5 hours ago and all the players
are going to be too busy trying out the new content (I guess it was
just about the most game-changing patch so far) for the next 48 hours
to do anything silly like vote in popularity polls. What a shame! Well,
for my bracket at least. Ramza was the guy I bet against, and I thought I was doing so with good reason. That disasterous loss to Kirby back in '03 certainly left a bad taste in my mouth, but now that I go back and look, it wasn't THAT awful. Sure Kirby scored 57% on him, but Ramza actually ended with a very respectable 22 in those final stats; needless to say, it's pretty difficult to think of a scenario that would land Hogger a spot above the fodder line. Square's been hit (Squall, Sora) and miss (Kefka, Riku) so far this season, but that crazy performance by Kain must have me really feeling the FFFEAR right now, because all of a sudden I'm feeling surprisingly confident in picking against my bracket to take Ramza here. As for the other two in the poll, what is there to say? Dante's a stud normally and even better in this format who should be blowing the rest of these chumps out, especially with that awesome pic. No way he pushes for 50% though like he did last year- these chumps aren't QUITE as chumpish as Ammy/Little Mac/Matt, plus anti-favoriteFAQs. Laharl is just really really bad and needs to stop making brackets. Still, he ought to improve on that nasty 11% value from '07, now that L-Block won't be ruining him. Soooo I guess that means I'll be preding... WAIT, HOLD THE PRESSES! A WoW-playing friend of mine from Europe just IMed me; he says that in Europe the pre-patch was 1.62 GB and that servers are still down while people install it, and that no servers on the continent will be back online for another 11 to 12 hours. Then I talked to an American WoWer, who said that he's been trying to log into his server every five minutes since 4pm today but that it's still down. He thinks most US servers will remain down overnight and probably many won't be back up until tomorrow morning. All of a sudden those millions of bored WoW players are back on the menu! Could this be the perfect storm for offsite joke vote rallying? Exciting! I'm going to have to change my pick to... Dante - 45.45% Ramza Beoulve - 21.89% Hogger - 18.74% Laharl - 13.92% Yeah, still think Ramza's got too much in his favor to bet against here. That being said, would not be surprised at all if Hogger took him behind the woodshed tonight. This will be a very interesting first 15 minutes IMO! Ngamer Says: Dante > Ramza Guest’s Analysis - Luis_Sera Well here’s an easy match to call, but when you’re left with slim pickings for round one matches, then I guess you have to expect it! |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/14/2008 9:48:16 PM | message detail | #395 |
| I really can’t see anything other than Dante >
Ramza here. Dante placing first here is painfully obvious. The only
other previous entrants we have are Ramza and Laharl, and they lost to
both Kirby and Vyse and respectively in previous character battles.
Ramza we haven’t seen since 2002 I believe, and despite the re-release
of FFT, I have no reason to believe he has gotten significantly
stronger. Laharl was debated over L in early 2007, but those days are
long gone, and since I had L over Laharl then, I’m certainly not going
to have him over Ramza now. Laharl is very much definitive fodder,
whereas Ramza is something of a cut above that. Joke entrants have done well on the whole this contest, but I don’t think Hogger will be among their number this time around. The joke is by no means as obvious as L or WCC, and Blizzard votes alone won’t be taking him above Ramza. This is all about whether he can pip Laharl for 3rd. Laharl is amongst the weakest of our perennial entrants, but he has somewhat of a dedicated fanbase, so the portion of the vote that he’ll pick up is set relatively in stone. It just so happens then that I think this portion of vote is below that which I believe Hogger will accrue. Dante’s 1st round four-pack in 2008 is probably weaker (somehow) than last years, but I think he’ll achieve a lower percentage, as seems to be the trend this year. We’ve had a lot of strong characters “disappoint” compared to their expected first round values, and I don’t expect Dante to be any different. He won’t reach 49% this time around. At least I think so >_< Hogger will get the prerequisite Blizzard support but Ramza will manage to siphon this new-found Square support to an easy victory. Not that he would have lost anyway. Dante: 47.76% Hogger: 15.85% Laharl: 12.05% Ramza: 24.34% Crew Consensus: THE DANTE SPARDA!? defeats Ramza |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/14/2008 9:49:33 PM | message detail | #396 |
|
oh man, my percentages are identical to Lopen's in a Dante match. hoo boy. --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/14/2008 9:54:01 PM | message detail | #397 |
|
DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis: And we are back to BLIZZARDFEAR, my biggest FEAR of them all. It's one thing that a character like Arthas advances, but something like Hogger, despite it's WoW backing, really should not be advancing here. But again, you never know with these damn Blizzard characters, and how many rabid fanboys are going to be running to GameFAQs to vote, as you must be aware of outside rallying. As Dante obviously takes first here, I'm sticking with Ramza to finish second here, though it does trouble me a bit that even though he's Final Fantasy, he's from Final Fantasy Tactics. I'm not exactly sure if that is a worrisome thing or not, and Laharl could take away votes as well. It wouldn't surprise me to see Hogger in 2nd tomorrow, but I'll say it won't happen. Also, I'm sick of losing points. Dp's bracket says: Dante > Ramza Dp's prediction is: Dante > Ramza Confidence: 40% Dante - 44% Ramza - 23% Hogger - 19% Laharl - 14% --- NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!! Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008 |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 10/14/2008 10:30:42 PM | message detail | #398 |
|
Hmm, only Dp agrees with me in giving Hogger the slightest measure of
respect. We'll have to see what these first 15 minutes bring...
entirely possible he bombs hard, in fact you could probably upgrade
that to LIKELY, but I think it's wrong to count him out completely. --- Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/ Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
| Luis_Sera89 | Posted 10/14/2008 10:35:10 PM | message detail | #399 |
|
Augh, 2003. --- "Eet's game time..." |
| Lopen | Posted 10/14/2008 10:54:23 PM | message detail | #400 |
|
How did Tranny shoot higher than me. Dammit. And I can't believe the utter disrespect for Hogger here. I kinda thought I'd be alone on that. Well, awesome. ^5s crew. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
