GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/9/2008 9:54:37 PM | message detail | #301 |
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And to that I say, Axel is going to benefit from franchise voting and
the surge of casual gaming. Normally, I'd consider Zelda and Final
Fantasy to be pretty damn casual, but games nowadays make Link look
like the dude from Star Tropics. (Mike?) Add to that not only the fact that Nintendo has been embarassing itself this year, both in terms of contest performances and game releases. The gaming crowd is no longer going to accept the "games" like Wii Fit and such now that it seems as though Nintendo is putting their full support behind them instead of churning out the next Zelda or Mario. Not only that, but Twilight Princess is yet another year older, and even more irrelevant than last year given all the great games that have come out since then (Guitar Hero 3 anybody?). You could also make a case for GH4 hype helping, but I think Axel has this locked up. He'd have to end up being pitifully weak to not win here. TuRtLe's Prediction: Cloud 69%, Axel 13%, Midna 11%, Edgeworth 9% TuRtLe's Bracket: Cloud > Axel TuRtLe's Vote: Axel Crew Consensus: Cloud > Midna is the majority, but Lopen and Turtle have Cloud > Axel |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/9/2008 10:06:51 PM | message detail | #302 |
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DpOblivion's Unofficial Not-So-Quick-(Sorry-Couldn't-Resist) Analysis: Okay, all you people with the Axel upset....ugh, be quiet. If Axel advances, then this contest just doesn't make sense to me anymore. I suppose you could argue that the GH fanbase is not just very mainstream, but also far removed from the other three fanbases in the match. But the GH fanbase that is far removed from the others is not a fanbase that will be voting a GameFAQs contest in full force. Chances are, if you're into GH, and you're voting in this contest, you won't have a strong enough allegiance to Axel Steel to keep your vote on him, even if you are a big GH fan. And in this poll, we have a Legend of Zelda character, a character from the highly popular Phoenix Wright, and the main star of the biggest game on this whole site. All three have very devoted fanbases, while you can be as big a GH fan as there is, and not give a damn about Axel Steel. The only other argument to pick Axel is Midna's weakness. Midna disappointed a lot of people with her performance last year, but that's because people were expecting too much. She was in a bad position in her match, facing a giant Nintendo power in Samus, a very mainstream character (and unlike Axel, one you would actually vote for) in Scorpion, and another strong, devoted fanbase in Frog. We've seen Miles Edgeworth before, and he proved that he is nowhere near Phoenix's strength, failing to reach double digits with Bidoof and Agent J alongside him. I don't know if he finished 3rd or 4th, but he's a lock to not advance. Yes, Cloud will probably dominate Midna's vote. But there won't be as much SFF as from Samus, and Axel and Edgeworth should be much weaker than Scorpion and Frog. I look for Midna to rebound in this match, and get more towards what most people were expecting of her last year. If this match is on a generic site, Axel gets 2nd easily. But I just can't see a strong enough, devoted Guitar Hero fanbase on GameFAQs to push him over the Twilight Prince. I'm one of the better GH players here, and I couldn't care less about Axel Steel. Don't really know why people would. Dp's bracket says: Cloud > Midna Dp's prediction is: Cloud > Midna Confidence: 70% Cloud - 59% Midna - 18% Axel Steel - 15% Edgeworth - 8% --- NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!! Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008 |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/9/2008 10:24:37 PM | message detail | #303 |
| Why the hell is everyone lowballing Cloud. He got 61% against Jill/Ocelot and he was splitting with Zolom. No way he doesn't break at least 65% against these chumps. |
| RaeSaraneth | Posted 10/9/2008 10:53:28 PM | message detail | #304 |
| I'm hoping for Cloud>Midna. But I'm voting for
Midna because she's cute (in an imp-monkey kind of way) and way less
annoying than Navi, and I was even sad when Navi flew away at the end
of OoT and made little sparkle noises. --- ^_^ |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 10/9/2008 10:57:58 PM | message detail | #305 |
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Why the hell is everyone lowballing Cloud. The same reason why everyone lowballed (or should have lowballed) every other member of the Noble Nine. They're not as strong as they used to be. --- Good Times, Great Memories |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/9/2008 11:02:18 PM | message detail | #306 |
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Why the hell is everyone lowballing Cloud. He got 61% against Jill/Ocelot and he was splitting with Zolom. Zolom got 5.5%. It was basically a three-character poll. --- NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!! Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008 |
| transience | Posted 10/9/2008 11:44:17 PM | message detail | #307 |
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/detail.php?board=8&topic=45727426&message=502685524 http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/detail.php?board=8&topic=45727426&message=503072516 not bad --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/10/2008 2:52:01 AM | message detail | #308 |
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Ugh, I feel like crap for putting Axel so high.... --- NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!! Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008 |
| transience | Posted 10/10/2008 3:14:22 AM | message detail | #309 |
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oh man I just actually read this You could also make a case for GH4 hype helping, but I think Axel has this locked up. He'd have to end up being pitifully weak to not win here. this is gold --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 10/10/2008 3:40:35 AM | message detail | #310 |
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Getting back to my point on GHIII sales for the Wii... according to the
official NPD numbers, the Wii version of GH3 had sold just over 2.25
million copies in the US as of 6/1/08. Very impressive, BUT, between
the four consoles GH3 was already up to over 7.5 million in American
sales as of that date, so actually the Wii accounted for only 30% or
so. What threw me off is what an incredible seller the game was for the
PS2- over 3 million on that platform! Factor that in and you get the
number I was thinking of- the Wii has accounted for 49% of the game's
PS3/360/Wii sales. And yes I'm fully aware that no one ACTUALLY cared, but I demand excellence from my Crew writeups; it's my duty to you, the reader, to make sure all my facts are straight! --- Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/ Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/10/2008 10:59:28 AM | message detail | #311 |
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CATS.......................15.25% 19397 Nathan Drake.............6.87% 8730 Squall Leonhart.....45.06% 57296 Yoshi.......................32.82% 41736 TOTAL VOTES...................127159 What Happened - Squall dominates as he puts up 45%. Yoshi does a bit worst than most expected, and CATS destroys Nathan. Why it Happened - More proof of SquareFAQs? Yoshi underperformed like crazy in this match. Squall benefited from this (seemingly) new voting audience, while Nintendo fans left Yoshi in the dust. What Will Happen - Sora/Fox/Squall/Yoshi just got a lot tougher to call. Yoshi no longer looks like a clear cut favorite against Sora. Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay everyone! Yoblazer - 16 Ngamer - 14 HM - 14 Tran - 14 Guest - 13 Moltar - 13 Lopen - 11 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Tran gets the point for Squall, Lopen gets the point for Yoshi, Yo and HM get points for CATS, and Yo gets the point for Nathan Moltar - 20 Yoblazer - 20 HM - 15 Ngamer - 13 Tran - 11 Lopen - 11 Guest (War, KP (2), Dp, Justin, greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai) - 10 --- Moltar Status: augh Axel/Cloud/Midna/Miles - Bracket: Cloud > Midna - Vote: Midna (69/88) |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/10/2008 11:34:38 AM | message detail | #312 |
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Man, can't believe nearly everyone had Axel beating Edgeworth. I really didn't expect Axel to be anything. Not that Edgeworth is much of anything himself, but still. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: 1st place, 57296 votes, 45.06% |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/10/2008 11:37:01 AM | message detail | #313 |
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What can I say? When some people are arguing that
vehemently for a character, it begins to weigh on your mind. Without
Axel's few rabid supporters, I probably would have given him a <10%
prediction. Then again, I only bumped it up to 11%, but I feel pretty
dumb regardless. --- Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/16hnm05.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| Tatl | Posted 10/10/2008 4:45:40 PM | message detail | #314 |
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http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Scorpion_vs_Midna_vs_Kratos_Aurion_vs_Agent_47_2007 http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Samus_vs_Scorpion_vs_Frog_vs_Midna_2007 Last year, she gets 24% against Scorpion with Kratos in the poll. And then 12% with Samus...but Samus SFFed her to death. This year, she gets 20% against CLOUD (Cloud > Samus > Scorpion) and Edgeworth (Kratos > Edeworth?) is the only Nintendo in the poll with her. If my math is right...she's, statistically, performing better this year than last. I could be wrong...I hope I'm not. Anyone (who's good with the stats). Give me some answers...please? (Will respond after work tonight.) --- Bracket Score as of 10/7: 64 Today's Pick: Cloud > MIDNA - Biggest Flop: Ryu > Metaknight |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/10/2008 6:44:27 PM | message detail | #315 |
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Yes Midna looks better than she did last year by a little bit. --- Moltar Status: augh Axel/Cloud/Midna/Miles - Bracket: Cloud > Midna - Vote: Midna (69/88) |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 10/10/2008 7:10:41 PM | message detail | #316 |
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Regarding how all of the NN & potential NN-breakers have been
flopping this season (and NOT just on the Nintendo side, I would like
to point out), here are some posts I wanted to hold on to while we
continue to watch this trend play out. PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/10/2008 12:47:12 AM | message detail Huh, it almost seems as though voters are embracing the variety of this format more than last years. All the major players haven't dominated as badly as expected. Cloud still looks good, but the fact that he may not outdo last year's opening performance despite clearly weaker competition is telling. --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITS Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! Ngamer64 | Posted 10/10/2008 1:47:46 AM | message detail Yeah, like I've been saying in my Crew writeups, pretty much every time you've had an elite character in a matchup that it was very clear (even to a casual fan) he would win, he's been hamstrung by voters jumping ship, generally in favor of the next strongest option. It almost seems that after so many years, voters are collectively doing something to shake up the traditional status quo this time around. Which is why what we really should have seen indicated by that Who Will Win pre-poll was not the success of L-Block, but instead how such a huge majority voted in favor of the generic "something new" options. Pretty clear that, when it comes to GameFAQs at least, the voters of 2008 are demanding Change! --- Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/ Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com Ngamer64 | Posted 10/10/2008 1:55:25 AM | message detail Speaking of which, the (shockingly rare) impressive first place performances the last two days fit well with that theory as well. Yes Sora took Fox to the cleaners pretty effectively, but that's actually the option that the casual Change-wanting voter would have been swayed to pick; those same casuals had made Fox the favorite to win that poll, with 43% of the brackets behind him to Sora's 37%. Likewise yesterday, where the casual fan might very well have suspected that Yoshi was going to win that match. Squall had 82% of brackets picking him to make it to R2, while Yoshi had the support of 83%. --- Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/ Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com Smurf FAQs | Posted 10/10/2008 5:09:47 AM | message detail Like I've said before I think the NN all hitting below expectation is a signal of the increasingly big protest vote on the site. The popular characters are always going to be the ones hit first. --- Smurf , The cream of Knuckles Fanboyism. --- Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/ Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/10/2008 10:21:03 PM | message detail | #317 |
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Division 6: Round 1 - Match 24 – Mewtwo vs. Ness vs. Pac-Man vs. Travis Touchdown Moltar’s Analysis Mewtwo Game/Series Known From: Pokemon 2007 Results: 3rd Place in Round 1 vs. Ryu, Bowser and Toad Mewtwo is back, and without Ryu and Bowser around, he’s looking to go far. Ness Game/Series Known From: Mother/Earthbound 2007 Results: 3rd Place in Round 1vs. Liquid Snake, Alucard and Zidane Brawl Character #24, Ness was close to Round 2 last year, can he make it this year? Pac-Man Game/Series Known From: Pac-Man 2007 Results: 3rd Place in Round 1vs. Mario, Big Boss and Wander Geez, another third place Round 1 character. Unlike the other two, Pac got third by a mile. Travis Game/Series Known From: No More Heroes 2007 Results: N/A Travis made it! That’s so…moé Finally, after a string of easy ones, we finally get a match that requires some real thought! First up, we have Mewtwo. Last year, he was stuck in a rough fourpack with Ryu and Bowser. Most people knew he didn’t stand a chance, but when he came within a couple percent of Bowser, heads turned. If he’s as strong as that match suggested, then no other character in this group will be able to stop the Pokemon. Ness was also in a close match, but between two less popular characters. Liquid and Alucard aren’t slouches, but they’re no Ryu or Bowser either. Still, Ness has Brawl behind him (oh geez), and we all know how rabid the Mother fanbase is. Pac-Man is a very interesting contest character. Put him against an icon like Mario or Luigi, and he gets crushed. Put him against a not-so-mainstream guy like Ocelot or Kefka, and all of a sudden Pac-Man is looking good. Last year, he was in the same group with Mario and got destroyed. This year, the most mainstream character here (other than him) is a Pokemon…interesting. Travis is the fourth and final character here, and as much as I loved No More Heroes, and even though Travis will be getting the most important vote (my vote, of course), his chances of advancing here are low. I mean, it’s not like NMH was that popular (sequel announced though yessssssssssssssssssss). So I think Mewtwo has the best shot at first here. He’s a Pokemon, and we all know those darn things do well in this format. We’ve also seen Mewtwo stand up to Bowser, so there’s no way Ness or Pac-Man start giving him trouble. Also, if there’s any SFF between the other guys, he is most likely the one to benefit from it. Second place is a tough call between Ness and Pac-Man. On one hand, Pac-Man thrives on these kind of opponents, the one where there isn’t an icon to match Pac and voters blindly vote for him because “It’s freakin’ Pac-Man and I don’t care for whoever else”. Plus, he also has other fanbases to draw from as well besides Nintendo, which could tip the scales in his favor. On the other hand, his opponent is a popular Smash Bros. character, and even though Mother/Earthbound isn’t the biggest name here, Ness is still a known popular character thanks to Smash. Tie that in with his already hardcore fanbase, and that he’s more resistant to potential SFF than Pac-Man. I like my chances with Ness more here. Moltar’s Bracket Says: Mewtwo > Ness Moltar’s Prediction is: Mewtwo: 38% - Ness: 26% - Pac-Man: 23% - Travis: 13% Heroic Mario’s Analysis Have to make this quick today -- Mewtwo wins, Ness gets a scare from Pac-Man, and Travis continues the long line of niche characters doing especially poorly. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/10/2008 10:21:20 PM | message detail | #318 |
| The big thing to keep an eye on in this one is
Ness and Pac-Man. I'm not sure how far away Pac-Man would be from Ness
under normal circumstances, but with SFF at play and a weakened
Nintendo this year, Pac's in a good position to pull something off. One
could argue that Pac-Man would hurt, too, but I'm not buying that --
there's no major icon here to sap that strength away, and the
competition here is poor (i'm voting for pac-man today what is going
on). I'm not biting on it, but I'm almost convinced it happens. We'll
see. The other thing is Mewtwo. There's already been some talk about him advancing to the quarterfinals, and if he puts on a good show here I expect there to be more jumping on that bandwagon. I think he'll do decent here, but nothing that blows anyone away. Prediction: Mewtwo - 36% ; Ness - 27% ; Pac-Man 25% ; Travis - 11% Bracket: Mewtwo > Ness Vote: Pac-Man (what a bad match) Yoblazer’s Analysis Woohoo, only one day to go before one of my most anticipated matches of the entire contest! Before we reach the epic Boss vs. Kirby showdown, however, we've gotta get through this match. It could be entertaining, and it might even throw us for a loop, but I'm not expecting too much. Our competitors are Mewtwo (Pokemon series, Melee), Ness (Earthbound, Smash series), Pac-Man, and Travis Touchdown (No More Heroes). I've found that it's tougher to write a buttload when the match is overloaded with a Smörgåsbord of SFF, and I'm pressed for time as it is, so let's spring through this one. Hey, at least I gave you Smörgåsbord! Smörgåsbord. Smörgåsbord. Smörgåsbord. Barring an upset that would make anything else we've seen this year appear expected, Mewtwo should have this win, and he should have it secured for miles (with like awesome Mewtwo brand barbed wire and ****). He's just as old school as Pikachu, is nearly as recognizable, and does not and has never received any stigma for being an annoying little rat thing. He's the "badass" Pokemon, would almost certainly remove Pikaface's entrails in a direct match, and may also be stronger indirectly. He also has years of extra exposure via Melee, and his first contest match last year was a doozy, as he wasn't too far removed from putting a scare in Bowser. I'm fully expecting Mewtwo to nuke his opponents here, confident that he'll snag up the ever impressive 40%+ along the way. The battle for second is between Ness and Pac-Man, but I'd be surprised if it turned into much of a battle. Ness certainly isn't much, but Pac-Man just sucks too ****ing much. He gets absolutely obliterated by anything Nintendo, and his only impressive performances came at the expense of relatively niche, mature characters against him he could his cartoony, casual advantage (Kefka and Ocelot). As such, he was a bit of an upset pick against Big Boss last year. How did he respond to the pressure? By getting more-than-doubled and barely putting up 10%. He's not going to magically shoot up to the mid-20s here, folks. He's too weak. He doesn't have any devoted fanbase. Mewtwo will suck the casual life out of him. Ness will lose some of his Nintendo/Smash support to Mewtwo, but he won't be hurt as badly as Pac-Man, and should stroll to an easy second place. Our last competitor, Travis Touchdown, is one I'll be keeping an eye on. He's from the niche and very modest-selling Wii game, No More Heroes, but that doesn't necessarily spell a recipe for disaster. Travis has been blessed with a trio of premium meth-pure Nintendo characters, and he should be arbitrarily boosted just because of this triple fanbase split. In addition to that, the guy looks cool, has an awesome name, and actually seems to have a bit of a devoted core fanbase. He won't place or anything, but he should do much, much better than some of the turds we've seen this year. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if he beat Pac-Man. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/10/2008 10:22:06 PM | message detail | #319 |
| In the end, however, the day belongs to Mewtwo.
He'll be going all crazy with his psychic attacks, extracting vengeance
for six years of snubs and bad bracket placement. Give em hell, badass
Pokemon. Mewtwo - 41% Ness - 26% Pac-Man - 17% Travis Touchdown - 16% Lopen’s Analysis Interesting match, this one. Let me give you my take. In first, Mewtwo... he proved himself last year... but not by as much as you think. In last, Touchdown. As we all know from Sackboy and Madden NFL, the football vote just doesn't mean much here, I'm afraid! Plus he looks like a jackass in that picture. Really, he does. Ness vs Pac-Man, who wins? Lookin at their records through the stats you're probably thinkin Ness. But how many times have we REALLY seen Pac-Man not behind a SFF screen in some way? Let me tell you how many times. One year, in 2002, when he ripped through a weak area of the bracket to be eventually taken down by Scorpion. I'm tellin you here, you don't wanna look at the stats, because Pac-Man is totally worthless to read through them. "Oh, but he'll get SFFed again here!" you claim. Nay. Only those of iconia can touch Pac-Man with the SFF. You think Ness and Mewtwo have it? They don't have it. They aren't old school enough... even Pikachu would be hard-pressed to budge this guy. Ness vs Mewtwo is the bigger potential SFF magnet, I think. They share SSBM, and they're closer to the same era of gaming. Plus, their games are kinda similar in some ways. Similar combat systems at least (well, assuming Earthbound was converted into a 1v1 fighting system.) RPGs. Thing is, that's not even why I have Pac-Man winning here. I just think he's the more impressive participant. Ness has two wins under his belt, neither of which compare to Ocelot or Kefka (50/50 is close enough to winning). Mostly Ness is about "looking good in defeat" whereas Pac-Man is actually about getting it done and winning in matches that weren't even supposed to be close. Trust me, with no real sources of SFF around... Pac-Man is going to surprise. Plus he's got the Pac-Man Jones vote... bad, bad Mr. Pac-Man Jones... Mr. Mr. Pac-Man Jones... bad bad Mr. Pac-Man Jones... Mr. Mr. Pac-Man Jones. *repeats ad nauseam* Oh, and as for why Mewtwo is going to be a little underwhelming? See Ness. Lopen's prediction: Mewtwo - 35.11% Pac-Man - 29.39% Ness - 27.05% Madden NFL - 8.45% Transience’s Analysis let's talk about Pac-Man. Pac-Man is a unique character. he is unlike anybody else because he has no real strength - his strength comes from being well-known and iconic but not because anyone actually likes the dude. the first real video game character gets votes against niche characters due to being so exposed, while other characters that trump him in that category destroy him. he's had three matches over the years with Nintendo icons - Luigi, Yoshi, and Mario - and he's gotten hammered each time. it would make sense that this format doesn't really suit him since most of his votes are out of being recognizable. but look at his competition here -- Nintendo, Nintendo, and Nintendo-lite. and it's not like we're dealing with icons here, we're dealing with Mewtwo, Ness and Travis Touchdown. what is your typical xbox fan going to vote for? how about your ps3 fan? or your pc fan? does anybody actually think that Ness is iconic, or that he's really popular and liked? maybe to the Nintendo base, but not much more. and let's not forget that the Nintendo base is split three ways here. Pac-Man is by far the most unique character here. Ness and Mewtwo overlap way more than they do with Pac-Man. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/10/2008 10:22:27 PM | message detail | #320 |
| I could actually see Pac-Man taking first here. it
wouldn't surprise me at all. there's going to be a lot of apathetic
votes. Nintendo hasn't done well this year. Brawl's not boosting Ness
to heaven or anything. Earthbound and Pokemon are both Nintendo RPGs.
Pac-Man is going to get a lot of "who the hell cares?" votes here. it's
totally possible that he could bomb, but I'd bet on a well-known iconic
Yellow Thing over a fat kid with a baseball bat that's got a shared
fanbase. sorry, HaRRicH. too much Nintendo Pac-Man benefits greatly maybe gets first place transience's prediction: Mewtwo with 35.44%, Pac-Man with 31.25%, Ness with 24.98%, Travis Touchdown with 9.33% Ngamer’s Analysis Another day, another slightly (not hugely, just slightly) disappointing performance from an overwhelming favorite! The trend this year isn't NintendoFAQs, certainly, but as today shows it's also not SquareFAQs. And despite what some overly dramatic purists might be saying, I don't think its fair to call it JokeFAQs either. Sure WCC wowed us, but it's not as though whichever character has the strongest "joke appeal" or stands out the most from the traditional character options is seeing a significant boost in every match. If that was ever a theory, it was certainly disproven by Tim and Sackboy and Axel Steel, and most likely Travis will continue beating that now-dead horse tonight. If there's any trend at play in '08, it would appear to be anti-favoriteFAQs. Extremely odd occurrence, and something we'll definitely have to keep an eye on as these matches continue to play out... for the sake of our Oracles if nothing else! I doubt the flight from favorites does anything to hurt Mewtwo's showing in this next one, as there are probably plenty of casuals giving Ness and/or Pac-Man equally good chances of advancing into R2. Let's take a look at how things went last year for these three: Last Known Values Mewtwo - 23.73% (2007) Ness - 20.46% (2007) Pac-Man - 11.19% (2007) Travis - new Just looking at the numbers, you'd have to call that a disappointing showing for this whole batch of characters. But Mewtwo has a good excuse- he got close to the worst draw imaginable, and the uproar that went out across this board when we first saw it was justifiable. Even against those long odds, Mewtwo put on a nice showing, especially with the ASV where he went on a pretty much awesome tear for a few hours, making some serious cuts on both Bowser and Ryu. There shouldn't be anything in this new group to hinder his ASV appeal either, and in fact I'd be shocked if any of these three hindered him at any time during the day to keep this from being a wire to wire runaway victory for the King of the Pokemon. Pac-Man looked bad in '07, but again, he at least had a good excuse. The guy doesn't respond well to old school or iconic opposition, and considering Mario is the perfect example of both those qualities, we should have known he'd be in for a hurtin' come match day. Mewtwo didn't even arrive on the scene until '97 (and didn't hit it big until the first Pokemon movie in '99), and of course Ness wasn't even on gamers' radars until SSB in '99, and Travis is obviously extremely new, so I don't see any of these options having the old or iconic appeal needed to hold Pac back. He's also the only option for voters who don't want to support Nintendo, which is apparently on of the agenda for at least a decent number of voters this season. I really wanted Pac to get his classic sprite look for this match pic, but even with this colorful 3D version of himself I'm liking his chances to have a decent outing here. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/10/2008 10:23:21 PM | message detail | #321 |
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Now, Ness also looked bad last time around, but unlike his co-contestants the Boy Wonder had no
excuse. He was the lone Nintendo/Smash/"kiddie" option in a sea of
mature PSX stars, and his failure to do ANYTHING with that huge
advantage was one of the most baffling things about the entire Contest
to me. Clearly his past 1v1 success was more a case of people being
apathetic about or flat out disliking his previous opponents rather
than people actually feeling strongly about Ness himself. However, you
could say the same thing (and indeed many have) about Pac-Man. What's
the difference? The difference is that there's an ELEPHANT in the way,
and his name is Mewtwo. I doubt Mew kills Ness within the Smash
fanbase, but honestly all he should need to do is tip the scales
slightly, and that would be enough to give Pac-Man the advantage. I see
it happening. Travis will be fodder, but like Axel before him, he's that good kind of fodder that I don't at all mind seeing in 128 character brackets. Really cool character design, has the Sword Factor working overtime for him, and heck, even his name is hilarious. He probably could have done better in a group without other recent Nintendo options, but no biggie, I still see him having enough appeal to crack into the double digits without much problem. Anything too far beyond that is probably out of his range regardless of opponent. So with Mewto a clear cut above the rest, Ness and Pac very close but the scales getting tipped in the favor of the old schooler, and Travis being able to avoid embarrassment, the end result has been potted and stirred and now I'll serve it to you. Mewtwo - 37.92% Pac-Man - 24.50% Ness - 23.61% Travis Touchdown - 13.96% Hm... not entirely comfortable with picking Mewtwo that high. But on the other hand, who's going to stop him? Ngamer Says: Mewtwo > Pac-Man Guest’s Analysis - KamikazePotato Man, excluding the Zidane match going with my favorites in debated matches hasn't worked out so well this year. Maybe my favorite characters only advance if I do a Guest Writeup for them. If so, thank you Moltar! Today we have another debatable match because of LFF. While intrinsic to the format, it seems like we've lost the ability to have debatable matches without some character sapping some other poor sap. This match's poor sap is Ness, trying his hardest to hold onto the casual Nintendo vote with Mewtwo in the poll. His fearsome opponent is Pac-man, one of the most unpredictable characters in the contest. Seriously, tell me with a straight face that you know what Pac-man is going to do. The guy lost to Lettuce Kefka, then beat Melty Ocelot, then nearly lost to Wander (while being SFFd by Mario, but still). Pac-man doesn't have an actual fanbase, and thus is one of the biggest 'apathy vote' characters out there. He could lose to Travis, or beat Ness comfortably. We really don't know. And speaking of Travis, he isn't doing much here. No More Heroes sold better than people realize, but he's up against stiff competition for a guaranteed fodder character. NMH fans like the guy, and he's got a freaking laser sword in his pic, but 2nd place is impossible. The most he can do is hope that Pac-man or Ness flops and then edge them out somehow. Mewtwo is a lock for first. He held up respectably to Bowser and Ryu in the biggest case of wasted potential on 2007. The match probably overrated him somewhat in the stats as Toad sapping Bowser made him look better, so I doubt he breaks 40% here, but getting 2nd would absolutely shock pretty much everyone around here. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/10/2008 10:24:19 PM | message detail | #322 |
| Which leaves Ness. The poor guy, much like Kefka,
always seems to be put in debatble matches. He's one of those
characters that's just strong enough to be a low midcarder, which makes
for some interesting results. Last year Ness disappointed, failing to
capitalize on triple PS1 LFF and getting 3rd in a match many took him
to get 2nd in. Pac-man is much weaker competition than Alucard and
Liquid, but with Mewtwo hurting him, will he make it? This isn't the
most high-profile match, which makes Pac-man's 'apathy vote' all the
stronger. Problem is, all the argument for Mewtwo crippling Ness are very similar to Pikachu crippling Ike, which simply didn't happen. Ike didn't advance, but it was because Arthas turned out to be stronger than expected; Ike did better than most people thought he would, even decisively winning the ASV over Pikachu. Ike was favored over Pikachu in the SSB fandom, and so is Ness over Mewtwo (Mewtwo was terrible in his sole appearance). If anything, Ness rSFFs Mewtwo's SSB vote. As for the Pokemon and EB fanbases, Pokemon has already shown that it's somewhat seperated from the rest of Nintendo, and if you think that Earthbound fans of all people are going to abandon the game or any of it's characters, you don't know them well enough. Of course, there will be some LFF. It's impossible for there to be no overlap. However, it won't be a lot. Pac-man's apathy vote, while helped by this not being a high-profile match, is also hurt by the fact that the voters still have 3 other choices to choose from. In short, Earthbound rules and Ness should beat down Mewtwo if this were a perfect world. But not too much, Mewtwo is pretty cool. KP's Bracket: what does it matter, the thing is in flames KP's Vote: Ness (shocker of shockers) KP's Prediction: Mewtwo: 38.58% Ness: 26.32% Pac-man: 21.6% Travis Touchdown: 13.5% Crew Consensus: In a close one, Ness beats out Pac-Man for the second spot. Mewtwo takes first. |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/10/2008 10:27:00 PM | message detail | #323 |
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4-3 woo --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/10/2008 10:29:15 PM | message detail | #324 |
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Also, I've been getting write-ups kind of late for a while now. I'd like to start posting these at around 10 PM EST (11 PM at the absolute latest), so try and send in your write-ups by like 9:45 if possible. --- Moltar Status: augh Axel/Cloud/Midna/Miles - Bracket: Cloud > Midna - Vote: Midna (69/88) |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/10/2008 10:30:53 PM | message detail | #325 |
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[Even up the consensus?] DpOblivion's Unofficial Not-So-Quick-(Sorry-Couldn't-Resist-Again) Analysis: Mewtwo has first place locked, that's for sure. He'll destroy Ness in the Nintendo vote, and he is plenty mainstream which is Pac-Man's only strength. Seeing the boring mainstream character Axel Steel fail so hard today, as well as a lower-tier Nintendo character succeed, makes me feel even better about this match. Differences between Axel and Pac-Man: P is much more well known, but on the other hand there are not a whole lot of raving Pac-Man fanatics like there are GH fanatics. Differences between Midna and Ness: Midna gets the Zelda vote, but Ness has been around longer with a devoted core fanbase, plus he has Super Smash Bros, all 3 games. BRAWLFEAR Yes, Mewtwo could take a significant amount of Ness' SSB vote, but if there's still anti-Pokemon, Ness could still get a decent amount. Plus, he should get a good Brawl boost, as I think Lucas' addition could also help Ness, and of course Mewtwo wasn't even in Brawl. Pac-Man's success depends almost entirely on the mainstream popularity of his opponents, because few will vote for him if they know someone else in the poll. Mewtwo should be a big time mainstream vote getter, in the range of Pokemon players both old and new, being one of the original 151 and arguably the second most mainstream Pokemon behind Pikachu (though Mewtwo is much more popular among voters). Also, both he and Ness will draw the very powerful mainstream SSBM vote. The one positive for Pac-Man is that he is facing two mid-tier (?) Nintendo characters and a very niche Travis Touchdown (could be underestimating him though). I'd be lying if I said Pac-Man didn't have at least a half-decent shot at winning. I was close to switching this in my bracket. But I just couldn't pull the trigger, because I can't trust Pac-Man in this format, and I think Ness will be strong enough to get what he needs to take 2nd. Dp's bracket says: Mewtwo > Ness Dp's prediction is: Mewtwo > Ness Confidence: 55% Mewtwo - 39% Ness - 27% Pac-Man - 23% Travis - 11% [Nope] --- NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!! Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008 |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/10/2008 10:39:48 PM | message detail | #326 |
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I do believe this is the first time I've ever seen Smörgåsbord written as a word. Only before as spoken. Whoo yo. --- NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!! Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008 |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 10/11/2008 12:21:48 AM | message detail | #327 |
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Go Pac go! --- Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/ Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
| transience | Posted 10/11/2008 1:17:07 AM | message detail | #328 |
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Crew almost got this one right. well, at least our percentage of people right is better than the board's. pretty sure casuals will rock the board this time. --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/11/2008 10:23:18 AM | message detail | #329 |
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I have to give props to Yoblazer for spelling smörgåsbord correct. --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/11/2008 11:45:05 AM | message detail | #330 |
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Axel Steel.....................7.56% 9872 Cloud Strife...............59.8% 78138 Midna.......................20.37% 26617 Miles Edgeworth....12.27% 16037 TOTAL VOTES....................130664 What Happened - In a match that most of us saw coming, Cloud destroys everyone and Midna takes second. It's kind of surprising that Cloud failed to break 60% on these guys, but you can chalk that up to Midna looking better than expected. Why it Happened - With the top characters not dominating as hard as they usually do, I guess you can blame Cloud's performance on that. Not really sure why Midna looks stronger this year. Did Kratos hurt her last year? What Will Happen - Well, Midna looks fine here, but with more Nintendo entering the poll in the next round, the question is if she'll still be able to hold up. Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay everyone (except Lopen and Guest)! Yoblazer - 17 Ngamer - 15 HM - 15 Tran - 15 Moltar - 14 Guest - 13 Lopen - 11 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Lopen gets the point for Cloud, Tran gets the point for Midna, Ngamer gets the point for Miles and Moltar gets the point for Axel Moltar - 21 Yoblazer - 20 HM - 15 Ngamer - 14 Tran - 12 Lopen - 12 Guest (War, KP (2), Dp, Justin, greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer, satai) - 10 --- Moltar Status: augh Mewtwo/Ness/Pac-Man/Travis - Bracket: Mewtwo > Ness - Vote: Travis (73/92) |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 10/11/2008 11:50:48 AM | message detail | #331 |
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When some people are arguing that vehemently for a character, it begins to weigh on your mind. Did people start believe Lara would lose to Alyx? >_> Just curious. --- Good Times, Great Memories |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/11/2008 11:52:12 AM | message detail | #332 |
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Nope, never. There are some things that are too unrealistic to believe, no matter how fervently someone argues for them. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: 1st place, 57296 votes, 45.06% |
| RaeSaraneth | Posted 10/11/2008 12:32:04 PM | message detail | #333 |
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Well, I guess I wasn't the only one who was wrong about Ness. --- ^_^ |
| Lopen | Posted 10/11/2008 12:38:18 PM | message detail | #334 |
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I'm surprised it was only 4-3. Was guessin 5-2 with tranny being the only one to back me up here. And Soul I'll give you props... you made me change my prediction of 75-25 Lara to 60-40 Lara so you did something right at least back then. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/11/2008 10:12:39 PM | message detail | #335 |
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Division 7: Round 1 - Match 25 – Big Boss vs. Jinjo vs. Kirby vs. Lucas Moltar’s Analysis Big Boss Game/Series Known From: Metal Gear Solid 2007 Results: 2nd Place in Round 1 vs. Mario, Pac-Man and Wander 2nd Place in Round 2 vs. Mario, Magus and Phoenix 3rd Place in Round 3 vs. Sephiroth, Mario and Fox A Naked Snake pic gives him +10 popularity Jinjo Game/Series Known From: Banjo-Kazooie 2007 Results: N/A Well…I can’t say I expected this. Kirby Game/Series Known From: Kirby 2007 Results: 1st Place in Round 1vs. L-Block, Laharl and Nathan Hale 3rd Place in Round 2vs. Kratos, L-Block and Donkey Kong Brawl Character #25, Big Boss made it farther than Kirby. darn that block Lucas Game/Series Known From: Mother 3 2007 Results: N/A Brawl Character #26, we’re running out of them! Well, this is an easy one. Jinjo may have had a chance in some complete loser fourpack since his fad semi-popular. However, it’s no “L” or “Cube”. Therefore he isn’t doing anything here with Kirby, a popular Nintendo character, Big Boss, a favorite of the Metal Gear franchise, and Lucas, with the hardcore Mother vote. Then again, JokeFAQs can always prove me wrong. Back to Lucas, third is the best he can hope for. With Mother 3 not even being released here, and Kirby to take a chunk of that Smash vote, Lucas doesn’t have a lot to draw from. Even Ness, who is currently dying against Mewtwo and Pac-Man, would stand a low chance of advancing here, and Lucas is definitely going to be much weaker. So Kirby takes first because he’s the strongest character by a good bit. Big Boss take second, but it’s hard to say how he does since the pic factor actually can be applied for him. Oh wait, the pic is up? *checks* oh boy naked snake here to make things interesting We saw “Naked Snake” Big Boss in action a couple times before, and BB always performs better with the BB pic. So he’ll probably do the same here, but I don’t think he’ll beat out Kirby, even with the MGS4-boost he’s likely to get. They’re just too far apart enough already, and while the gap will be close, I think Kirby has got this. Show them Nintendo is still worth something, Kirby! Moltar’s Bracket Says: Kirby > Big Boss Moltar’s Prediction is: Kirby: 41% - Big Boss: 38% - Lucas: 11% - Jinjo: 10% Heroic Mario’s Analysis Normally I'd make this my longest analysis of the contest, but this is late (woo Brawl) and I don't want to be holdin' things up, so this is more a summary than anything. This match is all about Big Boss vs. Kirby. This has always been a great upset pick in my mind -- Metal Gear should be stronger than ever and it's a match full of Nintendo characters. Boss stands out in a big way here, but being the "unique" character isn't all he needs to win here. What makes Big Boss a good pick in this match is his picture -- Naked Snake. Last year, he put on a show in round 2 by not only beating out Magus for second place, but doing so handily. It wasn't even close. He even outdid his percentage from round 1 against much stiffer competition (about 25%), all in large part thanks to him getting a pic from Portable Ops as opposed to the "unrecognizable" MGS1 artwork. And as luck would have it -- with users creating the pics this year the whole way -- he netted his Naked Snake pic in round 1. We're going to get to see just how much it's worth today. You combine the pic (worth 25% against Mario/Magus/Phoenix Wright), a seemingly weakened Nintendo, and opponents that are all vying for votes from the same fanbase and this match is Boss's. If Liquid was any indication, we're going to see some good things today. plus it was my big boss pic that got selected clearly this is a sign p.s. -- vote for big boss |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/11/2008 10:12:58 PM | message detail | #336 |
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Prediction: Big Boss - 40% ; Kirby - 35% ; Jinjo - 15% ; Lucas - 10% Bracket: Kirby > Big Boss Vote: Big Boss Yoblazer’s Analysis Of the eight remaining first round matches, this is probably the second biggest (the first obviously being Sandbag's introduction). Along with the fourpack that damn Hogger's in, this is the only other non-Sandy match with realistic upset potential. The two winners couldn't be more clear, but their order is up in the air. Our competitors are Big Boss (Metal Gear series), Kirby, Jinjo (Banjo series), and Lucas (Mother 3, Brawl). Kirby and Boss are the obvious movers and shakers, and for most people, Kirby is still the significant favorite to win. I, however, took the Big Boss risk, and after what we've seen over the past few weeks, I'm feeling a lot more confident than I thought I would. Before we get into the two real fighters, though, let's get the trash out of the way. Lucas and Jinjo will be weak as piss; there is no one doubting this (yeah, that rhymed, but don't expect me to go all Disney now!). Lucas, for all intents and purposes, is exclusive to Brawl, the contest leviathan that has so far proven to be a contest leviath-NON. His only other game, Mother 3, never made it to the States, so this dweeby Ness lookalike will be running on Smash-grade petroleum more than anyone we've ever seen. Of course, he won't be mustering much percentage with Kirby in the poll. The other weakling, Jinjo, is (from what I've been told) exclusive to the Banjo series. What sets this guy apart is that he wasn't nominated as a legit entry, but as a joke character. Apparently, Jinjo is a popular little joke among many message board communities. Now, while his joke support may be relatively neutral in terms of who it damages (although I still think Kirby will get the worst of it because Boss's fans are just that hardcore), he'll still get a smidgen of Banjo support, and his cutesy design and look sets him squarely in the Nintendo camp on this one. Like Lucas, however, he'll also be pretty awful. So, what does this mean for Kirby? It means that these two chumps will be scrounging whatever meager percentage points they can almost exclusively from him. Jinjo will be taking most of his votes from Kirby. Lucas will be taking ALL of his votes from Kirby. This is the dreaded triple fanbase split (or, as I like to call it, the kiss of death) that spelled Bowser's doom last year. Granted, Bowser had to deal with a much worse split last year, but no one said Big Boss had to win this by 8% like Ryu did last year. In Kirby's defense, I very much doubt he'll make it easy for ol' Nakey Snakey. Kirby is still intrinsically stronger and will pound his Nintendo underlings pretty good, but the fact remains that they'll be hurting him assloads more. Consider the following scenario as an example. Let's assume that Lucas and Jinjo will be gaining 100% of their support at Kirby's expense (ridiculous, I know, but let's just go with it for the sake of nice numbers). Now, if they only manage a pathetic 20% between them, then a 60/40 match between Kirby and Boss suddenly turns into a 40/40 dead heat. Of course, Big Boss has to hold up his end of the bargain and score in the very high 30s if he wants to win this thing. Do I think he has the strength? Hell. ****ing. Yes. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/11/2008 10:13:41 PM | message detail | #337 |
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Big Boss is a unique character. He is unique in that no other
character's strength is likely to vary with a picture as much as his.
If he gets his old man picture (just ugly old man MGS art), he does
poorly. If he gets his Naked Snake picture (wherein he looks exactly
like Snake and hell maybe even more badass EYEPATCH), he excels. This
theory had been speculated for a long while, but Boss finally confirmed
it last year. He went from 28.5% on Auron with his bad picture to 25%
on Mario, Magus, and Phoenix Wright with a Naked Snake pic. The
variance is extraordinary. And thus begs the question... which picture
did he receive today? Was he cursed or blessed? Oh come on we all know the answer but I gotta parade it around anyway: http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-25.jpg Look at that picture. Look at that man. That absolutely crushes anything Solid Snake has gotten in the first round. Hell, that's gotta be one of the best Round 1 pictures ever. He's... he's ****ing pointing at us (at YOU). Are you kidding me? I can't look at that picture, stare at that man, look at his three opponents, and imagine that man losing. I just can't do it. Naked Snake has it all going for him here. He's got one of the greatest picture advantages I've ever seen. He has a triple fanbase split working in his favor. He has Nintendo performing rather dryly so far, and he has Liquid Snake's awesome performance earlier in the round. Go on, Snake. Make this one to remember. Through the night, to the day When everything is gone Carry the soul away from the dryness In the sun we see, fighting over lives All our dreams and wishes We send home for safe keeping Fighting for what's right Calling to the night, to dream Forgain in the light Waiting for a storm to rise Feel the isolation fleeting Calling to the night, to be, or not to be fighting here Leaving without you, leaving my soul behind Calling to the night, corners of golden crown fade with time Calling to the night, for us, for every single life All the ashes of men remain as a perfect memory Calling to the night But the heart will remain, as a silhouette of time Hear the ringing echoes in the splitting horizon Calling to the night Big Boss - 40% Jinjo - 12% Kirby - 36% Lucas - 12% Lopen’s Analysis Dude, I just realized. Bulbous head and his brother are going out back to back! Hell yeah. Word to your Mother. Anyway. Lucas is going to be total garbage, looking at how Brawl has been this year, and how vicious Kirby is with the SFF. Meanwhile NOBODY EXPECTS-- Jinjo to break 10%? Yeah. I don't know... I don't think this joke is big enough to do anything other than maybe make him look better than Banjo. If it were, though, it'd be pretty damn sad. I hate this thing worse than L-Block... it represents everything that I hate about Banjo Kazooie. Collect 19 JUMBLEDIDOODINGS, now 43 DUMBLEDELUMBLEFUMPS... and a GOLDEN SNUFFLEOPAMGUMP. What was I talking about? Oh, Big Boss vs Kirby. Well, I think Kirby is being underestimated by the board. Or maybe Big Boss is being overestimated.. or Lucas's ability to hurt Kirby? I really doubt Kirby cares about Lucas there. And Big Boss... while his match sporting the naked Snake getup last year was no doubt impressive, I have my doubts whether his strength really has that "higher bound" I like to talk about so much. Basically what I'm saying is, I think he looked better because a juggernaut was around. Kirby shouldn't have trouble winning here. And while next round might be some cause for concern with MC soaking the casual vote... Big Boss will unfortunately be holding Raiden back, so there'll be no hope upset. Oh-- haha-- you think Big Boss is the one to look out for next round? Forget it! Lopen's prediction Kirby – 44.89% Big Boss – 37.02% Jinjo – 9.38% Lucas – 8.71% |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/11/2008 10:14:13 PM | message detail | #338 |
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Transience’s Analysis Naked Snake! this match got a lot more interesting. you can argue that we're looking at an entirely different character when Naked Snake shows up. given that Naked Snake looked like the second strongest MGS character last year, and given that Liquid Snake did really well vs. Luigi, who's beaten Kirby in the past, and given that Lucas is there to hold Kirby back somewhat, AND given that Nintendo's looked bad this year, isn't it a good idea to abandon ship and just pick Big Boss? yeah, probably, and I bet the Crew does that en masse. I'm gonna stick with Kirby though. he's stronger than Magus by a good margin, the guy who flopped against Big Boss last year. I'm always skeptical about a picture doing THAT much difference, though if there was one to make a difference this would be it. it's difficult to argue this match because, really, who knows. I think it'll be close, but I like the character with actual strength instead of a match picture marvel. if Big Boss wins this with ease, all debate is over. (or at least until we see him flop with another picture -- damn you mgs4 boost) oh hey, Jinjo's apparently in this match. good to know, I guess. stupid Snake pictures sprites, different Snakes, who knows what you're gonna get transience's prediction: Kirby with 39.55%, Big Boss with 39.45%, Lucas with 11.55%, Jinjo with 9.45% Ngamer’s Analysis Wow, awesome showing from Mewtwo in this one. As I said in my writeup I wasn't really seeing where any of the other three would be able to hold him back, so in retrospect I'm not sure why I didn't pick him for a little higher... too much Ness faith I suppose. This sets up a really cool grouping for R2- where is Midna going to fall in relation to a Pac-Man who should once again be running unhindered by icon SFF? Who wins the ASV between Mewtwo and Cloud? (Well Cloud still WINS during that time obviously, but I could see Mew having the Pokemon Power to make it his best time.) And given his horrible starting power, might we even see Mewtwo in the lead for a couple updates? Ha, now that would be funny! Of course the even bigger point is that now Mewtwo's set himself up beautifully for a run all the way through this division- if it's Squall and Sora advancing out of the top half you might as well make him a lock, but even if Yoshi gets into the group instead, who's to say the dino would be assured the heads up win between these two, given what we've seen the last three days? Should be fun to watch, but I'm equally excited about today's battle, so let's jump right in! Last Known Values: Big Boss - 16.22% (2007) Kirby - 22.67% (2007) Lucas - new Jinjo - new To me the most shocking stat relating to this match is that only 17 Gurus picked Big Boss for first place. That's less than 8% of the field willing to go out on a limb and select a guy who we knew (post-user pic creation announcement, that is) was going to get an awesome pic advantage to defeat a character who would be facing double Nintendo LFF. The same character who got owned handily by Kratos last season, when having to deal with only single Nintendo LFF. I mean I'll give Kirby something of a break for the whole L-Block thing being unfortunate, but even so, he didn't even manage 45% of the vote directly against Kratos in a match most of us had been expecting to be neck and neck. And given Donkey Kong's embarrassingly enormous flop the other day, recent results haven't done much to increase Kirby's stock around these parts. We've seen what even a not exactly well-loved character like Pac-Man can do when he gets to stand out against three Nintendo opponents- given all these trends, and with Big Boss looking like that in the pic, I've got to feel that the ball is in his court for this match. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/11/2008 10:14:44 PM | message detail | #339 |
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Now that being said, I've got to admit that I give Kirby a much better
chance at the win than I did about 48 hours ago. See, the last time BB
scored this pic he earned 25% of the vote against Mario, Magus, and
Phoenix Wright; obviously much stiffer competition than he'll be facing
tonight, so he would seem to be a lock for a take in the low 30s.
Trouble is, Ness has disappointed me so much today that I'm no longer
so sure that Lucas is going to be able to hold Kirby back whatsoever! I
mean, going from Ness to Lucas you lose Melee, you lose SSB... you even
lose an Earthbound that has actually been released
in this country for heaven's sake! If Mewtwo can score 70% on Ness
directly as he's doing today, I see no reason why Kirby wouldn't put up
75% on Lucas... and that could spell serious trouble for Snake-lite. The other thing that has shaken my confidence is Jinjo's picture. A green Jinjo, on a green background, right-side up? Noooooo! I was counting on Zen's upside down picture to get the go ahead in this one, which would have screamed "hey casuals look, this here's a joke character!" Can't guarantee that would have turned him into a joke powerhouse or anything, but eh, I'd have liked his chances much better if he could have grabbed people's attention like that. As is, I can't see the Jinjo meme being worth enough to keep him too far above Lucas. We're likely in for a highly pathetic 3rd place, 15-10%ish rumble to avoid the basement in this one. And again, all the extra percentage being up for grabs should prove to be a major advantage for Kirby- and a major disadvantage for my bracket. (BTW, did I mention that 2 of those mere 17 who picked this BB upset ahead of time are me and yo? Well, it's true! *sends a disastrously overconfident pre-match high five yo's way*) Okay, soooo, if Lucas and Jinjo have bad showings, then in order for Bossy to pull off this upsets we're going to need a result somewhere in the range of... Big Boss - 36.14%% Kirby - 36.10% Jinjo - 14.30% Lucas - 13.46% Bah, I like how far ahead of the curve I was in calling for this upset a month back, but here in the last hours I'm starting to get cold feet. Oh well, soldiering on! Ngamer Says: Big Boss > Kirby Guest’s Analysis - Kamekguy Alright, so here we are in round seven. We've got an MGS4-pumped Big Boss, the rather reliable midcarder in Kirby, Brawl Character, and the latest Joke Character in Jinjo. With the exception of one specific, Japan-only character, I happen to actually like all of these characters, so thankfully, this shouldn't be too much of a problem to write without bias today. Big Boss is a lock for first. I see absolutely no way he can be taken down. Sure, he spent the last contest hanging onto Mario's coattails for a few rounds, and that Naked Snake pic sure did wonders for him. But now that Big Boss has familiarized himself with the masses, through MGS4 and a little bit through Brawl, he's not going to have any problems taking down a three-way Nintendo split. It won't be a blowout or anything, but it should be a convincing enough win. I've included an interview I did with Big Boss, as he ensured me that there was absolutely NO way he was going to lose this. Kamek: Mr. Boss, thank you very much for this opportunity. Big Boss: ... Kamek: Something wrong? Big Boss: It's nothing. But doesn't this seem...familiar? Kamek: What do you mean? Big Boss: I don't know...I just have this feeling...like this eerie, disembodied voice did something exactly like this...that the comfort and tranquility of the cardboard box may be broken forever...that there might be cake in the jungle of voting. Kamek: Errr... |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/11/2008 10:15:23 PM | message detail | #340 |
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Big Boss: There's monkeys running the polls, in the polls, and voting in them. You get the idea. Kamek: Right...anyway, you have three somewhat powerful opponents. First up is Kirby, who was pretty much the only guy who could've shut out that Tetris piece last year. Big Boss: Mmm...so, how does it taste? Kamek: Excuse me? Big Boss: How does this 'Kirby' taste? Is he that giant marshmallow? Kamek: Pretty much... Big Boss: Hmmm...I MIGHT have something to enjoy snacking on in the second round... Kamek: Then there's Jinjo, who's pretty much a... Big Boss: ...tasty flightless bird? Kamek: Yeah, that's pretty much-- Jinjo: UNEXPECTED! Big Boss: That's one big bird! Looks a little too sour, but a bit of spice might... Kamek: This wasn't supposed to turn into Jungle Cooking 101. Big Boss: Right, this was supposed to be a desperate cry for attention. Kamek: ...Moving on, your final competitor is some Brawl character...Lucas or something... Big Boss: ...you mean that WASN'T a duck? Kamek: What do you... Big Boss: He looked like a duck from behind... Kamek: You mean you... Big Boss: When on a battlefield, some things are better left unsaid. Kamek: So, you believe you'll do well? Big Boss: Well is from a point of view. Four go in, two are freed from the battlefield, while the rest continue to fight for the rest of their lives. There's no dignity; only the knowledge that you're forever stuck as a damn midcarder! Kamek: There's always moral victories! Big Boss: Moral victories are for Cats, not for Snakes. Kamek: Riiiight...any final words? Big Boss: This is good...right? Kamek: ...you know, forget this, waste of time over. I hope you all thoroughly enjoyed that completely humorless waste of time. Now, let's continue. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/11/2008 10:16:17 PM | message detail | #341 |
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Second place is a battle between Jinjo and Kirby. Kirby is a rather
strong midcarder, while Jinjo is a joke. However, while Jinjo is a
joke, Jinjo isn't Mudkip or Weighted Companion Cube or L-Block. Jinjo
is CATS. Jinjo is GLaDOS. Jinjo is an actual CHARACTER. While both CATS
and GLaDOS have generally overperformed due to this being the 'year of
the joke character', Jinjo is...well, he's just not 'huge'. He doesn't
have the casual appeal of Mudkip, and isn't as large of a fad as
GLaDOS. He's also from Banjo-Kazooie, an excellent game, yes, but we
all saw how Banjo performed...and also how Crash performed. It's been
stated time and time again; if you're from a platformer that doesn't
involve mutated meatball men sporting mustaches and overalls or
'radical ripping rodents' of the blue variety, Gamefaqs generally
doesn't care about you. Jinjo will probably get this same cold
shoulder. If he were a sole option for the cute in a group of mature
characters, I'd give him a shot. But not with... Kirby in the poll. Kirby had pretty ugly results last year, failing to conquer the block after DK caught him in his tie and taught him the art of the choke. This year, he does have another character trying to leech off of his percentage (Lucas), but it won't be quite as severe as Donkey Kong. Kirby is probably the most casual-friendly option in this poll, and one of the few characters who actually might benefit from Brawl. Kirby Super Star Ultra was also released recently, and Meta Knight put up respectable numbers in his match. Triple D fell to Pit, yes, but Kirby should be able to get through this round on pure muscle alone. Lucas...will knock off a few votes from Kirby and Jinjo. Yeah, I know Mother's got one heck of a rabbid fanbase, yeah, I know that Ness has burned a lot of brackets over the years, but Lucas isn't in contention. If Lucario had better results, I might look at Lucas with a smile and say, 'maybe'. But I just can't...Brawl characters have REALLY underperformed very badly in this contest. Lucas is a bit like Pit in popularity, but he just doesn't stand a chance against anyone here. Big Boss> Kirby Big Boss with 37.68%, Kirby with 26.32%, Jinjo with 21.45%, Lucas with 14.55% Crew Consensus: Wait, the Crew actually has this Big Boss > Kirby upset 4-3? And Lopen didn't even take it? I said wow. |
| The Real Truth | Posted 10/11/2008 10:19:15 PM | message detail | #342 |
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Jinjo will likely be at about 20%. --- GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site. -CJayC |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/11/2008 10:21:09 PM | message detail | #343 |
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DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis: So much for a third perfect bracket....damn it, Ness. And now that we've seen Ness, we have Lucas today. WTF. You know what....screw you, Lucas. Ness sucks this much, you should be that much worse. Go joke vote. You're finishing last today, Lucas. That's about all I have to say. Kirby will easily ride the Nintendo vote to victory, hardly damaged by the SFF of the losers Jinjo and Lucas. Big Boss has a solid MGS vote, but that's just not going to top the casual vote for Kirby. Dp's bracket says: Kirby > Big Boss Dp's prediction is: Kirby > Big Boss Kirby - 40% Big Boss - 34% Jinjo - 14% Lucas - 12% --- NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!! Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008 |
| Kamekguy | Posted 10/11/2008 10:24:17 PM | message detail | #344 |
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...well, I certainly feel like the complete idiot here. ^^ Ugh...the next few hours won't be pleasant on my nerves... --- "U = NOOBS. BROZ. = L33T. PREPARE 4 TOTAL PWNAGE. WOOT! WOOT!" ~ L33t Hamm3r Broz. |
| transience | Posted 10/11/2008 10:25:17 PM | message detail | #345 |
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whoa did I just read "Big Boss is a lock" --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/11/2008 10:25:33 PM | message detail | #346 |
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Should've paid more attention to the pic. Meh....I'll go: Kirby - 38% Big Boss - 36% Jinjo - 14% Lucas - 12% --- NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!! Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008 |
| ZFS | Posted 10/11/2008 10:25:41 PM | message detail | #347 |
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are those calling to the night lyrics i see a+ writeup --- Kept you waiting, huh? |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 10/11/2008 11:58:44 PM | message detail | #348 |
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Hey hey! yo, you owe me a high five after all! --- Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/ Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
| gamer88coool | Posted 10/12/2008 6:46:22 AM | message detail | #349 |
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Holy crud Big Boss getting the same % as Crono, Samus, Snake, and Mega Man? OMG this thing's gonna beat Master Chief. --- CB7: 63 points Kirby>Bigboss "It's not like L-Block is going to break down your door, and steal all your FF games, or Zelda games." -Masta Crouton |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/12/2008 1:03:03 PM | message detail | #350 |
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^5 Looks like this is one of those instances where the Crew comes out smelling rosy! Of course, no one else makes it a point to remember these instances, huh guys! --- Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/16hnm05.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
