GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/5/2008 10:01:40 PM | message detail | #201 |
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Division 5: Round 1 - Match 19 – King Dedede vs. Pit vs. Ryu Hayabusa vs. Zero Moltar’s Analysis King Dedede Game/Series Known From: Kirby 2007 Results: N/A Brawl Character #19, Triple D makes his contest debut Pit Game/Series Known From: Kid Icarus 2007 Results: 3rd in Round 1 vs. Luigi, Mudkip and Tingle Brawl Character #20, we’ve gotten ahead of the matches! Ryu H. Game/Series Known From: Ninja Gaiden/Dead or Alive 2007 Results: 1st Place in Round 1vs. Riku, Roxas and Haseo 3rd Place in Round 2 vs. Solid Snake, Riku and Nightmare Remember when everyone went crazy over Ryu after Round 1 last year? Good times Zero Game/Series Known From: Mega Man X 2007 Results: 1st Place in Round 1vs. HK-47, Lloyd and Jak 2nd Place in Round 2 vs. Crono, Raiden and HK-47 4th Place in Round 3 vs. Link, Vincent and Crono Another easy group for Zero Well this match isn’t even debatable. Zero takes first, as he’s clearly the strongest character here. Ryu H. takes second, as he’s clearly the second strongest here. Now that I think about it, Ryu does have a chance at pulling the upset. He looked very impressive last year, while Zero…not so much in Round 1. I’m not taking it, but I think it will be fairly close between the two. You can’t even make a case for the Nintendo characters, as Dedede and Pit will just destroy each other, leaving their opponents to walk right by them. Who wins between them is I don’t care because it’s just a meaningless battle for third. Moltar’s Bracket Says: Zero > Ryu H. Moltar’s Prediction is: Zero: 37% - Ryu H.: 33% - Pit: 16% - Dedede: 14% Heroic Mario’s Analysis Sucks for the Brawl guys here. It seems like all the ones you'd want to see in a post-Brawl world seem to get the worst draws -- Meta-Knight, Ike, and now Pit. These guys did well enough on trailers, and would have had some potential were they not fighting SFF (or in Meta-Knight's case, previous contest champions), but they got screwed pretty hard. Though with this competition neither one would have likely have caused waves if they weren't being held back. This match is all about Zero and Hayabusa. The smart -- and consensus -- pick is Zero in first, but I've entertained the idea of Hayabusa stealing a win. With Ninja Gaiden 2 fresh in his corner and this site's move to the Xbox 360 this past year, there's good reason to think about it. Hayabusa doing well last year only adds to it -- beating Riku and Roxas combined, though he did lose to Riku the next round, so who knows. But with Zero already being the stronger of the two and Mega Man 9 (for whatever it might be worth) having just released, Zero's the safer bet. Hayabusa isn't going to roll over here, though, and I'd expect him to make a match of this, win or lose. There's nothing holding him back in this match, where you could argue that two other Nintendo characters in the poll could hinder Zero a bit. Not something I'm willing to take a chance with, though. Give me Zero in a close one. Prediction: Zero - 34% ; Hayabusa - 32% ; Pit - 20% ; Dedede - 17% Bracket: Zero > Hayabusa Vote: Hayabusa Yoblazer’s Analysis Hmm... might be another short analysis today. Actually, unless we get a few very unexpected surprises (and, in its favor, this bracket has been pretty rife with them), I might be churning out shorter analyses for the next week. Yeah, things look a bit boring down the pike, but let's do our best to interpret the next handful of matches before Kirby vs. Big Boss. Maybe we'll get something good... |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/5/2008 10:02:05 PM | message detail | #202 |
| We have a battle between two Nintendo characters
and two gaming badasses today. They are King Dedede (Kirby series,
Brawl), Pit (Kid Icarus, Brawl), Ryu Hayabusa (Ninja Gaiden series),
and Zero (Mega Man X series). It's not hard to predict which two
characters will move on, but the battle for first may be more tightly
contested than most people are expecting. Before we get to that,
though, let's get the Nintendo guys out of the way. Now, if there has been one underlying theme in this contest so far (other than joke character domination), it's the fact that new Brawl characters have not performed up to snuff. In fact, most of them (Wario, Lucario, Diddy Kong, and Olimar) have either been "meh" or abysmal. That being the case, expectations for King Dedede and Pit are understandably very reserved. However, the only two nu-Brawlers who have come out looking alright are Meta Knight and Ike, and they're too of the game's most popular newcomers. Dedede and Pit also fall into that category, so while I don't expect them to impress, I don't think they'll do as poorly as what we've seen out of Brawl so far. Regardless, with stronger opponents and a fanbase split, they'll still be miles from advancing. The two characters advancing will be Ryu Hayabusa and Zero, and damn don't they look cool! These are a duo of battle tested veterans who will overpower their Nintendo adversaries with their cool swords and superior designs and blah blah BLAH. Anyway, who wins? Well, if you study some contest history, you may think the answer is painfully obvious. Three years ago, Hayabusa and Zero had a match, and Zero won. In fact, he kicked Ryu's ass (finishing with an impressive 63% of the vote). How can Ryu even make it close in the face of such a drumming? For one, it seems that Zero might have lost a step since then. Ever since his lackluster performance against Mario in 2005, Zero has been putting up some less-than-stellar contest results. On the flip side, it seems that Ryu has gained a step. Last year, the ninja obliterated his first round match. Granted, it was a match where he was aided by a huge fanbase split, but he still managed to go above and beyond every expectation. He has also found a nice home on both the 360 and PS3, which always helps. In addition to the natural waxing and waning of their strengths, I feel Ryu will be aided here by the nature of his opponents. Yes, Zero doesn't have much in common with Dedede and Pit, but Ryu has even less. His badass black ninja art really stands out amidst three cartoony characters, and I think that'll help a bit. In the end, these advantages won't be enough for Ryu to actually reverse the beating Zero gave him in 2005, but I think he can manage to make this result much more respectable. King Dedede - 18% Pit - 16% Ryu Hayabusa - 31% Zero - 35% Lopen’s Analysis Cripes have I mentioned how out of control Brawl is in this bracket? Well, anyway... I don't care about them. Dedede probably beats Pit because they're both kinda popular and Dedede has the Kirby fanbase to fall back on. Who cares about them, though. Nope, this match is about Hayabusa vs Zero. While most of the people of B8 will call this a lock in Zero's favor, citing a match from two years ago where Zero beat Hayabusa 60-40 as evidence. Yeah, well, hey... that's fine and dandy, but let's look at what Hayabusa has in his corner since then: Overall increased acceptance of the X-Box on GameFAQs Zero apparently weakening every year. Ninja Gaiden 2 |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/5/2008 10:02:41 PM | message detail | #203 |
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To me, this is enough to throw this match into question straight up.
What really threw me into questioning this... is... something not
purely statistical, but rather that this just feels so much
like the first round match last year. Ryu Hayabusa vs three nintendo
guys or Ryu Hayabusa vs three RPG characters. I know, I know... the
three RPG characters had a LOT more overlap, seeing as two were from
the same game and one was WHO IS HASEO but... I just sense bad voodoo
here. It's entirely possible that Hayabusa is a good draw, having a higher ceiling against weaker opposition than Zero. Look at their first round matches last year... overlap or not, how can Lloyd Irving, Jak, and HK-47 compete with 2KH characters? It's just wrong. I think the competition is weak enough here that Zero's more devoted but smaller fanbase will have trouble hanging with Ryu Hayabusa, who'll be romping all over the casual vote. Lopen's prediction Ryu Hayabusa – 36.77% Zero – 32.12% King Dedede – 16.05% Pit – 15.06% Transience’s Analysis tonight's match is a battle for first, and a battle for third. nothing else can possibly happen. I'm pretty sure we're all going to go for Zero here, and I can explain why pretty easily: Zero rocked Hayabusa in 2005 and has been stronger every year, not to mention Mega Man 9's release. since 2005, though, these two have gone in opposite directions. last year, Zero got less than 40% on HK-47, Jak and Lloyd Irving. Ryu Hayabusa got nearly 46% on Riku, Roxas and Haseo, and he got Ninja Gaiden 2 in the last year. oh, and the site has been turning increasingly pro-360 over the past year. Hayabusa's a pretty cool upset pick that almost nobody is taking. it's tough to pull the trigger on it though. Zero got fairly close to Crono while Ryu ended up losing to Riku in round 2. I won't put it out of the question though. Ryu is a guy I really would take far if he had an interesting draw, but it's tough to take him over a proven guy like Zero no matter how far he may have fallen. as for third place, we've got two Brawl characters that wouldn't have a chance alone, but together they're going to drive each other into the ground. Pit's got the more appealing design and is overall more liked in Brawl, I think (screw tiers in this case), but DDD's drawing from the Kirby series too. I'll give Pit the edge here but I don't think they're far apart. Ryu Hayabusa could do a lot of damage with a better draw transience's prediction: Zero with 37.89%, Ryu Hayabusa with 33.33%, Pit with 14.44%, King Dedede with 14.34% Ngamer’s Analysis Darn it! DARN IT!! I just can't beat these Marios! And the video game tournament is tomorrow! Last Known Values Zero - 33.32% (2007) Ryu H - 23.73% (2007) Pit - 15.73% (2007) Dedede - new Zero is pretty clearly a stud in this format. I mean yeah, he folded underneath Link/Crono/Vincent, but who wouldn't have? YOU? Doubtful! Actually I was remembering that match and briefly considering whether or not I should consider, if even just briefly, the Ryu upset. But then I remembered that firstly Mega Man 9 was going to be tearing it up right around this time, and secondly that Zero flat out destroyed Ryu 1v1 back in '05. Hm, actually looking at it now, that was only a 63% beating, not as bad as I thought. But still, even if Ryu gets extra points in this format for looking so cool in the match pic or gains ASV strength for being the only Xbox option, there's no way I could imagine him keeping this competitive for the top spot. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/5/2008 10:03:21 PM | message detail | #204 |
| Likewise I'd be shocked if either of tonight's
Brawl options were able to do anything surprising here. Even if that
game had been turning newcomers into GameFAQs Contest superstars left
and right, I don't see how either of these guys could get enough of an
advantage over the other to upstage Ryu. And since we instead seem to
be finding out that it takes Melee + Brawl + something else
to not flop out here in 2008, I fear we may be in for something more on
par with today's awful Banjo/Olimar showings. Between the two, I'm
thinking Triple D should have a bit of an advantage thanks to his Kirby
appeal, but Pit looks really cool in the picture and will hopefully be
able to keep him from running away. Yeah, short writeup there since I don't see anything too wild happening... but prove me wrong, Dedede! Zero - 36.45% Ryu Hayabusa - 27.41% King Dedede - 20.77% Pit - 15.37% I... don't like that very much! Ack... Ngamer Says: Zero > Ryu Guest’s Analysis - DpOblivion Here we see two interesting, popular, but untested SSBB newcomers in Pit and Dedede attempting to fight for second place. Of course, when things come in pairs, it usually spells trouble for the pair. In this match, they face two experienced characters with proven strength in Ryu Hayabusa and Zero, with no worries about SFF. While the unknown Nintendo characters could do surprisingly well on their own, they are going to kill each other with SFF. Even still, I think I would bet on Ryu and Zero advancing in a 3-way against one of the two SSBB characters, especially with the Mega Man series showing it can take votes away from lesser Nintendo characters, so I put the chances of Pit or Dedede advancing at slim to none. As we've seen, SSBB newcomers have not gotten much of a boost. Pit will probably gain more of that vote, but very little from his original game fanbase, while Dedede will gain more from the Kirby series. I think that will at least push Dedede to third, but he won't even come close to reaching the top 2. It's nice that the dedicated fanbase got them into the contest, but they needed some help in bracket placement, and they got quite the opposite. The real battle could be for first place. But if you know anything, it should be fairly obvious that Zero will take first here over Ryu Hayabusa. The Mega Man series is a dominant force, and Zero is a big-time vote getter in that fanbase. Ryu has some decent popularity and a fresh new game, but he's not one to pull an upset over a strong, well-established force. He's going to need Zero to suffer from some big time LFF from the other Nintendo characters, and I just can't see that happening. Dp's bracket says: Zero > Ryu Hayabusa Dp's prediction says: Zero > Ryu Hayabusa Confidence: 99% Zero - 36% Ryu Hayabusa - 28% Dedede - 20% Pit - 16% Crew Consensus: Zero > Ryu, Lopen Upset Special for today: Ryu > Zero |
| Lopen | Posted 10/5/2008 10:17:15 PM | message detail | #205 |
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I like how most of the crew members humored Hayabusa at least having a
CHANCE to upset but no one took it. Victory will be mine alone, I'm
afraid...! --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 10/5/2008 10:23:18 PM | message detail | #206 |
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I'm thinking Ryu takes first too. --- Good Times, Great Memories |
| DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/5/2008 10:23:39 PM | message detail | #207 |
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****, sorry guys. I'll post a quick one without even looking at your percentages to try and make this fair, heh. Alright, Ryu looked good last year, almost getting to the third round after demolishing his first round competition. Zero got close to Crono before Link siphoned his votes in the next round. Dedede is a newcomer, while Pit was kinda considered a disappointment by some (not me, I expected him to be pretty low). Ryu has a low shot at taking Zero.. but I definitely am sticking with Zero in first. I heard some people put Dedede second but I just don't see that happening, especially with Pit in there. Dedede seems to be a little more popular than pit in Brawl as well, so I think he'll fit in 3rd nicely. DARUNIA'S PREDICTION: Zero - 35% Ryu - 33% DeDeDe - 19% Pit - 13% --- but during the time bands are unknown, they aren't good. the moment they are discovered and well known then they become better. - Humpa |
| transience | Posted 10/5/2008 10:30:52 PM | message detail | #208 |
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oh cool, someone did take Hayabusa. here's our chance to test out the 360 shift. --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/5/2008 11:27:11 PM | message detail | #209 |
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Hm, looks like my prediction is turning out alright. --- but during the time bands are unknown, they aren't good. the moment they are discovered and well known then they become better. - Humpa |
| Lopen | Posted 10/5/2008 11:28:42 PM | message detail | #210 |
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In the power hour! Hayabusa's gonna make a killin when this is said and done...! --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| transience | Posted 10/5/2008 11:45:54 PM | message detail | #211 |
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good match so far. Ryufear justified! --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/6/2008 10:51:06 AM | message detail | #212 |
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gogo Lopen upset special --- Today's prediction: what am I fighting fooooooor 35.30% - Ryu H 33.90% - Spit 15.65% - Dedede 15.15% Status: Good |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/6/2008 12:11:31 PM | message detail | #213 |
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Banjo.......................13.28% 17892 Captain Olimar........11.5% 15490 Mega Man...............51.19% 68966 Nero.........................24.03% 32366 TOTAL VOTES..................134714 What Happened - Olimar completely flops and allows himself to be beaten by Banjo. Nero pulls in nearly a quarter of the vote, and Mega Man takes over 50%. Why it Happened - MM's performance isn't too impressive looking at the competition. Nero looks to be decent (or it could be dante-proxy votes). Brawl disappoints again in Olimar, but he was very weak before, so it may have boosted him from very very weak to very weak. Banjo...I guess did okay considering the low expectations What Will Happen - Cube/Tidus/Mega/Nero...weird group, but I don't think this performance hurts Mega's chances. Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay everyone! Yoblazer - 13 Ngamer - 12 Guest - 11 HM - 11 Tran - 11 Moltar - 10 Lopen - 7 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Moltar and Yo get points for Mega Man, gamer gets the point for Nero, Lopen gets the point for Olimar, and Ngamer gets the point for Banjo Moltar - 17 Yoblazer - 15 HM - 14 Ngamer - 11 Guest (War, KP (2), Dp, Justin, greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer) - 9 Tran - 8 Lopen - 8 |
| Chaotic Mind | Posted 10/6/2008 12:40:45 PM | message detail | #214 |
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I don't think Ryu's increased performance is due to a 360 shift, at
least not entirely. I think it has more to do with Sigma on the PS3
expanding his fanbase to include Sony people as well. --- Proud member of the A1 Steak Sauce Guild |
| transience | Posted 10/6/2008 1:52:42 PM | message detail | #215 |
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I guess that's possible, but I'd put more on NG2 than I would Sigma. --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| vcharon | Posted 10/6/2008 3:37:54 PM | message detail | #216 |
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Okay, how are all you guys still overestimating the Brawl characters... --- :> |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/6/2008 3:38:56 PM | message detail | #217 |
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Fanboys obviously. --- Albion Hero http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| croy3 | Posted 10/6/2008 3:51:47 PM | message detail | #218 |
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Hey all of the analysis crew,whats up? lol Anyways i was wondering if next year(as long as you are still doing this) I could be part of the crew and give my say in what could happen? --- Board 8 rox ur sox |
| gamer88coool | Posted 10/6/2008 5:01:41 PM | message detail | #219 |
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Lopen's lookin perty good here crew. call random people in the phonebook and tell them to vote for zero before it;s too late! --- Character Battle 7 currently: 46 points Today:Pit>Ryu Tomorrow:Snake>Sackboy |
| Lopen | Posted 10/6/2008 6:45:21 PM | message detail | #220 |
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Ninja Gaiden Sigma was out last year by the way. Not that Ryu didn't look a lot better last year too. But it's not something to consider so much for a boost from last year to this year. I do think Ninja Gaiden Sigma is worth something. My money's on NG2 (and mostly the 360 fanbase growing here) being worth more, but it's something. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| RaeSaraneth | Posted 10/6/2008 6:49:48 PM | message detail | #221 |
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yay Lopen :P I had Ryu taking first too, was worried for a while that it wasn't going to happen. --- ^_^ |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/6/2008 6:51:41 PM | message detail | #222 |
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Well, I'm happy with this result, even if my bracket isnt. Ugh, predicting this contest, why do I still bother.... --- NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!! Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008 |
| Lopen | Posted 10/6/2008 6:54:01 PM | message detail | #223 |
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Aw yeah, Rae. We were few, but we triumphed this day. Did you have Ryu Hayabusa winning second in the next round too? (I don't, actually, I expect a similar situation to Riku/Ryu last year) --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/6/2008 9:08:43 PM | message detail | #224 |
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who wants to be the last minute guest today? --- Moltar Status: augh Dedede/Pit/Ryu H./Zero - Bracket: Zero > Ryu H. - Vote: Pit (55/72) |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 10/6/2008 9:12:30 PM | message detail | #225 |
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I will. What's the match? --- Good Times, Great Memories |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 10/6/2008 9:13:37 PM | message detail | #226 |
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Oh wait, my "official" match is Sora/Fox/Tim/Scrub the day after tomorrow. I'll leave this one for someone else. --- Good Times, Great Memories |
| Ed Bellis | Posted 10/6/2008 9:15:28 PM | message detail | #227 |
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i'd offer but my writeup BLOWS --- This was KING BELLIS LOL ed status: throw bees on everything |
| satai_delenn | Posted 10/6/2008 9:15:30 PM | message detail | #228 |
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I could write something. What time do you need it by? --- Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE! |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/6/2008 9:17:13 PM | message detail | #229 |
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oh man Tim is tomorrow let's do this --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/6/2008 9:21:23 PM | message detail | #230 |
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i'd offer but my writeup BLOWS Yeah, this match really isn't worth more than a couple half-assed paragraphs. --- NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!! Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008 |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/6/2008 9:33:41 PM | message detail | #231 |
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i will need it asap --- Moltar Status: augh Dedede/Pit/Ryu H./Zero - Bracket: Zero > Ryu H. - Vote: Pit (55/72) |
| satai_delenn | Posted 10/6/2008 9:43:56 PM | message detail | #232 |
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Sent. Apologies for its brevity! --- Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE! |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/6/2008 9:45:38 PM | message detail | #233 |
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thank you! you are truly the hero of today --- Moltar Status: augh Dedede/Pit/Ryu H./Zero - Bracket: Zero > Ryu H. - Vote: Pit (55/72) |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/6/2008 10:15:03 PM | message detail | #234 |
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Division 5: Round 1 - Match 20 – Albert Wesker vs. Sackboy vs. Solid Snake vs. Vivi Ornitier Moltar’s Analysis Wesker Game/Series Known From: Resident Evil 2007 Results: 3rd Place in Round 1 vs. Sora, Lara and Daxter That’s right! He went head to head with Lara before collapsing last year. Sackboy Game/Series Known From: LittleBigPlanet 2007 Results: N/A Re…really? darn you heroic mario Snake Game/Series Known From: Metal Gear Solid 2007 Results: 1st Place in Round 1vs. Nightmare, Vyse and Rayman 1st Place in Round 2 vs. Riku, Ryu H. and Nightmare 1st Place in Round 3 vs. L-Block, Kratos and Riku 2nd Place in Round 4 vs. L-Block, Sonic and Squall 2nd Place in Round 5 vs. L-Block, Master Chief and Dante 4th Place in Round 6 vs. L-Block, Link and Cloud Brawl Character #21, the hero of Shadow Moses! Vivi Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy IX 2007 Results: 2nd Place in Round 1vs. Leon, Ridley and Spyro 3rd Place in Round 2 vs. Leon, Pikachu and Tidus The lovable Black Mage is back Well, this one should be easy. Wesker couldn’t even beat Lara, so there’s no way he’s touching Snake or Vivi. Sackboy’s game hasn’t even come out yet (how did he even get in geez) and even on hype, LBP isn’t touching a Metal Gear and Final Fantasy character. Snake = Noble Nine, and he has Brawl and MGS4 behind him. This match should be a dominating victory for him. Vivi takes second with ease. Moltar’s Bracket Says: Snake > Vivi Moltar’s Prediction is: Snake: 55% - Vivi: 22% - Wesker: 15% - Sackboy: 8% Heroic Mario’s Analysis The man. The myth. The legend. (best ever time get crazy) Of all the characters coming into this year, Snake is the one who has the most potential -- and should have the most hype. With Metal Gear Solid 4, Brawl, and an overall increased awareness of all things Metal Gear, this should easily be Snake's best year, so much so that it could either translate into his expected finals appearance or outright winning the contest. The latter may be more a fanboy dream than a logical pick but who says you need to be logical in order for something to pay off all aboard the hype train Coming into this match we've seen a glimpse of what may be in store for Metal Gear with Liquid. Few talked about Liquid advancing beyond the second round (hello) and it now looks like he's a near-lock ot do it. This after coming within 7% of Luigi. No doubt an impressive performance, especially when compounded with the fact that he lost to Alucard just one year earlier. If that match was any indication of what MGS4 can do, Snake is going to put up some big numbers in this match. No one should benefit more from MGS4 than Snake. All eyes are on him in this match. So -- how high does Snake go here? Looking at last year, he got about 58% against the likes of Nightmare, Rayman, and Vyse. Poor competition, for sure -- more than likely a weaker pack than what he's facing today, if only for Vivi. With that in mind, I think he's going to be good to outdo his showing last year, enough to put him past that elusive 60% that only Link and Cloud have ever gotten. Even better, he may have a shot at surpassing Link's percentage (woo fanboyism). If the MGS4 boost is as big as it appears to be (come on gamefaqs), he should put on a show here. Although there's no real reason for him to -- unlress you're wanting him to do the impossible and beat Link or Cloud, which needs to happen so the sky is the limit in this one ! |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/6/2008 10:15:26 PM | message detail | #235 |
| Snake's performance here may not mean much for
later round with the joke characters hanging around, but if he can
surpass expectations like I'm expecting things should be looking up for
him come the semis and beyond. The percentage may be a bit crazy, but
who cares you can't properly start a hype train unless you can say you
out did Link's percentage who wants sum Prediction: Solid Snake - 62% ; Vivi - 19% ; Wesker - 12% ; Sackboy - 7% Bracket: Snake > Vivi Vote: best character ever Yoblazer’s Analysis I didn't really think we'd see surprises in yesterday's match, and I was wrong. Well, color me stupid, because I'm feeling a lot more confident today! Actually, there's no reason to have any doubts about this match, and I feel that it's the most predictable we have left in the first round. Solid Snake, Albert Wesker, Sackboy, and Vivi - you guys ready to roll? Yeah, there's absolutely no question about this one. Solid Snake is a true Noble 9er and has been looking damn good these last two years. His three opponents include Albert Wesker from the Resident Evil series (a guy who, despite my undying love, I must admit to being fodder), Sackboy (a character who doesn't even have a game out yet), and Vivi, the only other character here with some strength. Vivi's an alright midcarder, but he's still miles and miles behind the Solid one. We've seen five other Noble 9ers so far, and none of them have really surpassed (or even met) most reasonable expectations. Based on this, I'm not expecting Snake to tear this poll up. I think he'll just cruise to an easy win on his way to a sprite round showdown with Mega Man and Weighted Companion Cube. Vivi finishes in a very distant (but very easy) second place, Wesker takes third, and Sackboy finishes last, his percentage probably bolstered by voters who mistakingly think he's a joke entry. Albert Wesker - 15% Sackboy - 11% Solid Snake - 50% Vivi - 24% Lopen’s Analysis Snake easily beats Vivi... and okay, I'm not gonna lie to you. I've completely forgotten who the other two characters in this poll are. Now I have to go look. ... Sackboy? So yeah.. a guy who wears a sack, and a guy who wears sunglasses, at night. Okay, now Mr. T Virus Sunglass man looked half decent last year... I guess... what he like... almost beat Lara Croft? Sackboy... might get the juvenile joke vote? The football vote? I have no idea. The game isn't even out yet I don't think. Next match please. Lopen's prediction: Snake – 56.12% Vivi – 24.88% Wesker – 14.02% Sackboy – 5.98% Transience’s Analysis great job by Ryu today. good to see him break through. today's match is completely obvious: Snake and Vivi. the match will be more about what percentage Snake can ring up and if Vivi's got a shot at Ryu/Zero than any potential upsets. there's really not much you can say about either - I expect Snake to impress, Vivi to do all right, Wesker to get his 15%-ish and Sackboy to clean up the scraps. whatever. Sackboy's really interesting here. this is the first time we've seen a character that legitimately does not have a game. there's a few people (hello) that have been playing the Littlebigplanet beta, but beyond that it's pretty much nothing. this game is going to be big though, getting crazy review scores and huge praise from both the niche and the mainstream. next year, Sackboy will be interesting. in the meantime, we can measure hype - I expect Sackboy to get a certain number of votes just from Sony's e3 presentation and people excited about LBP. he's facing the absolute worst character though, the current PS3 mascot in Solid Snake. yay, a boring match nothing bad can happen here Solid Snake, Vivi transience's prediction: Snake with 56.89%, Vivi with 22.66%, Wesker with 12.22%, Sackboy with 8.23% |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/6/2008 10:16:03 PM | message detail | #236 |
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Ngamer’s Analysis Well, color me surprised! I guess you can chalk up this Ryu shocker to those of us "in the know" wearing our previous result blinders... but come on now, this wasn't like Snake/Mega Man, where even though MM kept winning you got the feeling Snake was never all that far behind- this was an old fashioned 63% beatdown! You're not supposed to turn around a 26% deficit in just a few years! I guess MM9 alone isn't enough to make up for three years of doing nothing as a series; either that or these low tier Brawlers are taking a bigger bite out of Zero's pie than I would have thought possible. The good thing is we get to find out the answer in just a few weeks. Will Zero pull back out in front of Ryu with no other Nintendo options? Will Vivi instead capitalize on being the only Square/RPG option in a room full of badasses? Will Ryu take full advantage of being the only Xbox option and surprise us again? Wow, this format can be pretty awesome in those rare cases when you clear out the clutter and the fodder and the jokes and throw three legitimate options of near-equal strength against one another- who knew? Speaking of awesome matches between even characters, today is... well, not one of them. I've been wrong before, obviously, but I'm going to go ahead and say that there's not any way I see this upcoming poll being too entertaining, at least in terms of placement. Should still be fun to watch as an indicator of how next round's fantastic battle for second ought to play out, though. Let's dive in! Last Known Values Snake - 45.41% (2007) Vivi - 23.49% (2007) Wesker - 17.55% (2007) Sackboy - new The story of Snake in '07 is kind of a sad one. I mean, here's a guy who looked absolutely incredible in this format, performed like a monster, made it into the Championship match, held up decently well against the two strongest characters we'd ever seen... and yet the only thing people recall about him is how seemingly every time you turned around the guy was struggling to pull ahead of a Tetris block. Well now he's back, and this time around he has been playable in Brawl, been top tier in Brawl, sold a ton of PS3s with MGS4- in short I'd be very surprised if between this format and all the extra exposure this wasn't the strongest version of Snake we've ever seen. A shame he didn't get placed in a 4-pack with a set of chumps, or I think he'd have had a legit chance of scoring the biggest blowout of the round. Vivi is a character who I think we have a pretty good bead on. Maybe we were a little surprised to see him unable to hurt Tidus more than he did last season, but aside from that he seems like a reliable guy who we can pretty much depend on to perform in that 23 to 25 mid-range on BL, at least when he gets to act independent of other Square like in this one. Wesker seems fairly reliable as well- he's one of those dudes who is just no good in these Contests, but has enough of a fanbase to never be completely awful either. I'm thinking that in 9 out of 10 cases he would live up to the billing and come out either just below or just a hair above that fodder line. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/6/2008 10:16:26 PM | message detail | #237 |
| The wildcard of the group is of course Sackboy.
Before the jokes started really taking off, I heard him being discussed
as a good candidate for the 128th position on the final stats for this
season. But a Dog and and a Block and a Cube later, some of those same
people are giving this Sack serious consideration for second place in
this group- WHAT? Yeah, well afraid I'm not buying either of those two
extremes: Sackboy might look
like a joke, but with how heavily LittleBigPlanet has been promoted and
hyped recently I'm giving voters enough credit to at least somewhat
know him. And knowing him could easily work against him... no one hates
Valve, but Sackboy is king of setting himself up as a posterboy for all
things PS3, and that might be a dangerous place to sit considering this
site's demographics. Especially when the console's REAL poster-game has
a representative sitting right at the top of this poll. So Snake should be even more Steroid Snake than usual, Vivi and Wesker shouldn't surprise us, and Sacky... dang, I can't count him out entirely because he does look ridiculous, and clearly that's something the voters value highily these days. Let's take all those considerations into the pot a stir for a few minutes until: Solid Snake - 52.07% Vivi Ornitier - 21.33% Albert Wesker - 15.07% Sackboy - 11.53% That looks... actually, pretty good. Come on Snake, put on a show for us! Ngamer Says: Snake > Vivi Guest’s Analysis - satai_delenn Whoooaaa last minute guest writeup. Wesker's never impressed me very much, he lost to Lloyd Irving and to Lara Croft. Resident Evil does well in general in this format, but I'm not expecting terribly much from him, especially with Snake around to eat a significant portion of the votals. Leon Kennedy got 40-some % to Vivi's 30-some % in a four-way match last year, but Wesker? Nah. I don't think Sackboy is going to ride joke votes to any kind of victory or second place or anything, he doesn't strike me as able to grab the "har har it's an inanimate object" hilarity given that he's not really an inanimate object, and his game is a quirky PS3 exclusive that reminds me a bit in flavor of Katamari Damacy—not Tetris, not Portal, not Duck Hunt. My feeling is that most people will just go "…what is that?" and vote for Snake. Vivi! Yeah, here we go, Vivi time. It'll be interesting to see if Vivi improves the way Zidane appears to have done. He's the only Square character here, which helps, and he seems to be the one who will take most of the so-called "kiddie" vote since Sackboy strikes me as just too obscure for such things. And then there's Solid Snake. Woo! Ever since the bracket went up I've been getting the feeling that this is Snake's year. MGS4, inclusion in Brawl, etc., you guys know this stuff. I have Snake > Cloud in the semifinals (keeping in mind that my bracket has no JOKEFEAR, so of course that match might be very different than what I've got) and even though after Zack's performance that might not be such a great pick, I still feel vaguely confident that it could happen. I'm looking for Snake to really impress here in the first round. satai's vote: Vivi satai's prediction: Snake > Vivi Albert Wesker – 17.42% Sackboy – 6.46% Solid Snake – 52.01% Vivi Ornitier – 24.11% Crew Consensus: Snake > Vivi yawn |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/6/2008 10:17:54 PM | message detail | #238 |
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DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis: It's so awesome that Sackboy got in this contest, haha. Unfortunately, he stands absolutely no chance of even getting third, even with a growing JOKEFEAR. Then again, it seems anything can happen, and Wesker has been known to fail. But I just can't see the joke voters getting too much behind Sackboy. As for the rest, there are three names that stand out, but the order of these three should be pretty obvious. Only question in order is, and I can't believe I'm saying this, is Wesker or Sackboy for third. Damn you, JOKEFEAR.... Snake > Vivi > Wesker. I doubt we'll see much arguing against that, even from Lopen. Snake > Vivi next round, too. *high five HM* Whoo, high Vivi %, low Snake %, that's how I roll. Dp's bracket says: Snake > Vivi Dp's prediction is: Snake > Vivi Confidence: 99.9% Snake - 47.50% Vivi - 27.50% Wesker - 16% Sackboy - 9% --- NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!! Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008 |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 10/6/2008 10:33:22 PM | message detail | #239 |
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Crazy upset of the match? Wesker > Vivi Who's with me?? Damn. I'm usually all aboard the crazy upsets, but this match, I'm not feeling anything. I don't even see Sackboy getting near Wesker, who won't come close to Vivi, who will get crushed by Snake. --- Good Times, Great Memories |
| transience | Posted 10/7/2008 12:22:16 AM | message detail | #240 |
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well, my prediction sucks, but at least I can look at HM's and feel better --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| ZFS | Posted 10/7/2008 12:50:22 AM | message detail | #241 |
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well then --- Kept you waiting, huh |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2008 9:54:03 AM | message detail | #242 |
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King Dedede........13.41% 16807 Pit............................14.62% 18326 Ryu Hayabusa......36.53% 45800 Zero........................35.44% 44430 TOTAL VOTES.................125363 What Happened - Ryu H beat out most people's expectations and upset Zero in a close match. 20% behind, Pit also beat out Dedede in the "Brawl character who sucks less" match for 3rd. Why it Happened - Dedede being below Pit isn't a bit surprise, as Pit is more casual-friendly than Dedede in Brawl, and I never thought Kirby fans cared about Dedede anyway. The two didn't look good here because they were facing two opponents that were way out of their league. As for Ryu, this format looks to do wonders for him, just like for most other Xbox characters. It seems too early to say this was Zero falling or Ryu boosting or overperforming, but if you looked at Zero's numbers on his Round 1 group last year, and compared it to this year's group, he had nowhere to go but down. What Will Happen - Ryu's performance is good for Round 2, but it may be all for naught if Snake shuts him down again. Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay Lopen! Yoblazer - 13 Ngamer - 12 Guest - 11 HM - 11 Tran - 11 Moltar - 10 Lopen - 8 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Yo gets the point for Zero, Lopen gets the point for Ryu, Tran gets the point for Pit, and Moltar gets the point for Dedede Moltar - 18 Yoblazer - 16 HM - 14 Ngamer - 11 Guest (War, KP (2), Dp, Justin, greatone, Ngirl (2), gamer) - 9 Tran - 9 Lopen - 9 --- Moltar Status: augh Wesker/Sackboy/Snake/Vivi - Bracket: Snake > Vivi - Vote: Snake (57/76) |
| RaeSaraneth | Posted 10/7/2008 2:23:55 PM | message detail | #243 |
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lol this match... I like how (almost) everyone had an analysis that was about an inch long :D On to the next! --- ^_^ |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 10/7/2008 2:27:18 PM | message detail | #244 |
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When do you want the analysis Moltar? I won't have computer access until about 9:30 tonight, and I'll be able to write a good one at that time. If you need it earlier, I can write a real fast one right now. --- Good Times, Great Memories |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/7/2008 2:32:22 PM | message detail | #245 |
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9:30 EST? Should be early enough, from what I've seen he usually posts around 10-11. --- NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!! Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008 |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2008 9:03:30 PM | message detail | #246 |
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I probably should open up the division 7 and 8 guest sign-ups tonight but i'm lazy and don't feel like it, so tomorrow it is! and only 2 other write-ups at this time? don't tell me the rest of the crew is slacking too! --- Moltar Status: augh Wesker/Sackboy/Snake/Vivi - Bracket: Snake > Vivi - Vote: Snake (57/76) |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/7/2008 9:04:49 PM | message detail | #247 |
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blame the debate! time to finish this masterpiece up --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 10/7/2008 9:36:47 PM | message detail | #248 |
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Ok Moltar, I'm going to write a quick one up since I got stuck at work a little later then anticipated. --- Good Times, Great Memories |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 10/7/2008 10:02:42 PM | message detail | #249 |
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Alright, analysis sent. --- Good Times, Great Memories |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/7/2008 10:04:03 PM | message detail | #250 |
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and only 2 other write-ups at this time? don't tell me the rest of the crew is slacking too! Meh, boring match. Only one who probably cares is tranny. --- NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!! Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008 |
