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Character Battle VII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2

Lugia2 | Posted 10/1/2008 7:24:15 AM | message detail | #051
As for today's match. Waaay to early to call things, but this is L's worst start so far. Who knows though, people might see it as a legit character and it may not completely collapse.

Look, I don't like the block either, but I don't try to ignore its strength. If it weren't for the dog, it would probably be pulling 40% right now. Now it's acting like a normal character going one on one with Ryu.

That's the only chance we have. Sorry.
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Okay, the L-block thing was insane, but not as bad as getting explicitly smashed by Explicit Content in the 2k7 Character Contest!
FantasyFreak999 | Posted 10/1/2008 10:13:08 AM | message detail | #052
tagging
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"Run, run, or you'll be well done!"
~Kefka, Final Fantasy 6~
Master Moltar | Posted 10/1/2008 10:15:15 AM | message detail | #053
Amaterasu........26.56% 32815
Crono................49.22% 60803
Frank West......16.17% 19972
Kaim Argonar......8.05% 9940
TOTAL VOTES.............123530

What Happened - Nothing too surprising. Ammy does a bit better than expectations and Kaim does worse. Crono doesn't do anything amazing, but at least he doesn't disappoint!


Why it Happened - Okami Wii version? It may explain Ammy's increase since last year. Then again, Frank didn't do too badly either. Kaim sucked it up, but that's because some people just overrated Lost Odyssey. Or it could be SFF from Crono, but that's a stretch.


What Will Happen - Well, Ammy's strength doesn't do Crono or Ryu any favors in Round 2.



Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay everyone (except Lopen)!

Guest - 9
HM - 9
Yoblazer - 9
Tran - 9
Ngamer - 9
Moltar - 8
Lopen - 6


Crew Accuracy Challenge - Moltar and HM get the point for Crono, Ngamer gets the point for Ammy, Moltar gets the point for Frank, and Justin gets the point for Kaim.

Moltar - 13
HM - 12
Tran - 8
Yoblazer - 8
Ngamer - 8
Lopen - 5
Guest (War, KP (2), Dp, Justin) - 5
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Moltar Status: augh
L-Block/Meta Knight/Ryu/The Dog - Bracket: Ryu > L-Block - Vote: Meta Knight (42/52)
Chaotic Mind | Posted 10/1/2008 2:36:45 PM | message detail | #054
Pfft, analysis crew, more like wishful thinking crew. You might as well just pick your favorites to win don't bother with "analysis".

;P just joking you guys, you slipped up this time but you're usually pretty accurate. But my bracket says L-block>Ryu, so yeah go me! and go L-block! (oh man i'm actually rooting for the block now, i feel dirty)
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Proud member of the A1 Steak Sauce Guild
Alanna82 | Posted 10/1/2008 3:00:09 PM | message detail | #055
Yoblazers prediction is oddly close.
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Happily married to Wiggumfan267 on Valentines day, 2005.
Current Contest points: 42
trannyscience | Posted 10/1/2008 3:19:00 PM | message detail | #056
can't speak for the others, but it's not really wishful thinking for me - I get a kick out of the block. I just thought The Dog would hurt it. it looks like it's way stronger this year than last year, in which case this entire bracket is screwed.
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif
Lopen | Posted 10/1/2008 3:24:18 PM | message detail | #057
I think I presented a good enough case for L-Block to lose in my write-up. It didn't work out, but that doesn't mean I was "hope blinder"'d.

I have a lot of stupid picks but I tend to believe them and I'd like to say I make reasonable arguments for all of them even if you don't believe them. Even last year... there was always a new obstacle for L-Block to face that I thought it'd fail at. The one round it didn't have one, against Snake in R3, I actually called it correctly. Actually in R5 I think I was a bit biased too. Mostly because I think I had Master Chief > Snake when my write-up should've implied Master Chief > L-Block.

However, needless to say I will not be calling L-Block to die next round... even though I'd really like it to. I do think The Dog is hurting it here and that it should get a good 3% more next round, which will be too much for Ryu and probably even Crono to beat.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
RaeSaraneth | Posted 10/1/2008 4:37:57 PM | message detail | #058
Hey, look!
Ryu is winning by like 70 votes.
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^_^
Steiner | Posted 10/1/2008 4:38:35 PM | message detail | #059
HM, I love you.
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"The arguments I've seen for this one range from 'what' to 'well then.' " - Heroic Mario on L-Block
gamer88coool | Posted 10/1/2008 5:15:09 PM | message detail | #060
Booyah Ryu getz BLOCK'D
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Character Battle 7 currently: 38 points
Today:Lblcok>Ryu Tomorrow: Falcon>Kratos
Master Moltar | Posted 10/1/2008 9:07:03 PM | message detail | #061
Division 4: Round 1 - Match 15 – Alucard vs. Captain Falcon vs. Diddy Kong vs. Kratos Aurion

Moltar’s Analysis

Alucard
Game/Series Known From: Castlevania
2007 Results: 2nd Place in Round 1 vs. Liquid Snake, Ness and Zidane
3rd Place in Round 2 vs. Master Chief, Yuna and Liquid Snake

Alucard already? Crap, I just did a Symphony of the Night paody!

Capt. Falcon
Game/Series Known From: F-Zero
2007 Results: 3rd Place in Round 1 vs. Fox, Wario and Banjo

Brawl Character #13, and stuck with another Nintendo character again

Diddy
Game/Series Known From: Donkey Kong Country
2007 Results: N/A

Brawl Character #14, a new Nintendo character joins the fray!

Kratos
Game/Series Known From: Tales of Symphonia
2007 Results: 3rd Place in Round 1 vs. Scorpion, Midna and Agent 47

Has never won a match, but also is the only Tales character to not look like complete crap

Well this is a weird match. You can actually make a case for all four characters to move on.

First up, we have Alucard. He’s the one with the most chance to grab first. We saw him last year put up the fight of his life against Liquid Snake, and then bow out in Round 2 along with Liquid. Now, Alucard also struggled with Ness, another Nintendo character. Now I don’t know how Diddy and Falcon compare to Ness, but I would blame Alucard’s weakness last year on facing other popular Sony characters from other popular Sony franchises (hey FF and MGS). Alucard should look good here, considering Diddy and Falcon are Nintendo, and Kratos gets most of his love from Gamecube fans of ToS.

Second place can go to one of the other three characters. Kratos has performed decently in the past. Last year he wasn’t too far off from Midna, but Midna turned out to be pretty darn weak. As for Falcon, we already know he’s low on the Nintendo totem-pole, as he was beaten by both Fox and Wario last year. If Diddy wasn’t here, he’d have a great shot at second.

However, Diddy is here, and I actually do believe in him. I think Diddy will end up having decent strength. There’s been some Fox/Falco and DK/Diddy comparasions, and if that happens, then Diddy shouldn’t have any problems advancing with how good Falco looked. He’ll win the Nintendo vote over Falcon (if last year was any indication) and he also eats up some of Kratos’ vote.

Now if Diddy can actually take first, I’ll be really impressed. Alucard is no push-over, and this time around, we should be able to see what he can really do.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Alucard > Diddy

Moltar’s Prediction is: Alucard: 34% - Diddy: 26% - Kratos: 22% - Falcon: 18%



Heroic Mario’s Analysis

This is a tough one. The only bad pick you can make here is to take Captain Falcon, if only because we've already seen what happens to him when he's put up against other Nintendo characters, even ones that aren't all that strong. Alucard, Diddy, Kratos - any of these three could place here, though. I'm stickin' with Diddy on this one partly because of BRAWL and partly because it's bad news to trust a Tales character to win a match.

That said, though, Kratos isn't all that bad. He kept it pretty close with Midna, which was more of Midna bombing relative to expectations than Kratos overperforming, but it's still notable. If Tales has a large enough base here he could take advantage of the SFF between Diddy/Falcon and steal second. It'd be close even if he did, though, which makes me reluctant to take him.

Diddy's got a better shot at winning with room to spare than Kratos does. Add in that he's got the DKC games to help him outside of just Brawl and I think Diddy's in good shape. It'll be close for second, but I'm pretty confident in DK-lite getting by.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/1/2008 9:07:22 PM | message detail | #062
Alucard shouldn't have any problems here either. He should be safely ahead of these guys, though if he isn't round 2 is going to be something.

Prediction: Alucard - 35% ; Diddy Kong - 25% ; Kratos A - 23% ; Captain Falcon - 17%
Bracket: Alucard > Diddy Kong
Vote: Alucard



Yoblazer’s Analysis

The most important match of the first round is behind us, and L-Block is looking golden to make it far yet again. However, there's still lots way more contest to discuss! Let's try to ease back into a state of normalcy with a much more ordinary, yet still pretty debated, first round contest.

Up today are Alucard (Castlevania), Captain Falcon (F-Zero, Smash), Diddy Kong, (Donkey Kong Country, Smash), and Kratos Aurion (Tales of Symphonia). This, unsurprisingly, is another instance in which picking the winner is a no-brainer, but picking the second place finisher is a challenge. Today's winner will clearly be Alucard. The goth Symphony of the Night star may have seen his popularity dip in recent years, but he should still be more than a match for two Nintendo underlings and a Tales of character. Alucard should move on very comfortably, and if he doesn't, then god damn what the hell happened to him. Don't let it happen, Alucard. Remember the plan.

As I said, the battle for second place isn't as easy. Captain Falcon, a guy many of us figured could make waves in these contests, has twice proven to be a big dud. Unfortunate, yes, but he won't (or rather, shouldn't) be in serious contention here. Instead, our two primary competitors for the silver are Diddy Kong and Kratos Aurion, and each brings a few pluses and minuses to the table.

To his credit, I think Diddy is safely the stronger of the two intrinsically. I hastily wrote him off at first (probably because I hate the bastard in Brawl), but he actually does have a few noteworthy games under his belt. Diddy was a very popular playable character in the first two Donkey Kong Country games (his name appearing in DKC2's title), which were, by their own right, two very popular and high-selling SNES titles. The little simian also made his presence felt on the N64, starring in Diddy Kong Racing (an often-overlooked million seller) and Donkey Kong Country 64. He took a break during the Gamecube era, but he's come roaring back with his inclusion in Brawl. The fact that he was kinda prominent and popular well before he was dumped in Smash (as opposed to, say, The Fire Emblem guys and Captain Falcon) could give him some decent strength.

Diddy's main problem (and the one thing that can send Kratos through) is the fanbase split with Captain Falcon. Diddy should get the better of it, but both these guys are true-blue Nintendo, so Falcon will be slurping up some support. Will this SFF open the door wide enough for Kratos to sneak through? I don't think so. While Kratos may be the most popular Tales of character, he's still... just a Tales of character. Lloyd already did worse than most people anticipated, and I simply don't trust Kratos given the natural strength advantage I expect Diddy to hold (and given the fact that Kratos has never really come close to winning a match, but whatevs).

The possibility is still there, of course (especially if Alucard eats more yummy percentage than I'm expecting), but I'm liking Diddy's chances.

Alucard - 34%
Captain Falcon - 20%
Diddy Kong - 25%
Kratos Aurion - 21%



Lopen’s Analysis

Interesting match here... a lot of combinations exist but most people at least agree that Alucard for first is all but a lock. And with good reason... Alucard has outperformed Donkey Kong in these contests, and Captain "Marle Distorter" Falcon and Kratos Aurion are known to be weaker than Alucard as they've been to a few barbecues before.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/1/2008 9:08:10 PM | message detail | #063
As for Captain Falcon vs Kratos Aurion? Captain Falcon's history involves getting tripled by Crono and beaten by Wario of all characters in a four pack last year. Kratos Aurion's record isn't much better, but it's clearly better... he came kinda close to Midna last year in a four way match, and lost to Diablo with around 43% of the vote. Both defeats, but respectable defeats at least... more than Captain Falcon can say for himself. Add in the fact that Captain Falcon might get SFFed by Diddy Kong and there's pretty much no reason to pick Captain Falcon to place, here, even though he should come out with a decent percentage.

The true difficulty in this four pack is in placing Diddy Kong. Now, I've heard a lot of people say "Diddy's cooler so he should be stronger than Donkey" but man Diddy's been in like 1/12 the games DK has. And you know, even that aside I don't really think Diddy is cooler. Big ass gorilla vs squirt with baseball cap... *shrug*. DKC2 fanboys are pretty loud it seems, so I'm thinking it's them spreading this idea. I doubt Diddy amounts to much.

Of course, he doesn't need to considering he only needs to beat out Kratos Aurion. (well, he does if you think he's going to beat Alucard) But with Falcon there to drain his Brawl support, and the likelihood that Diddy is going to be at least a few notches weaker than Donkey Kong (who wouldn't exactly destroy Kratos Aurion to begin with) I had to take Kratos Aurion for second place here. Diddy's range is pretty large, though, so this match is in no way a lock.

Lopen's prediction:
Alucard – 33.18%
Kratos Aurion – 25.23%
Diddy Kong – 23.25%
Captain Falcon – 18.34%



Transience’s Analysis

well, this contest is over. it doesn't matter if it comes in first or second here, L-Block's got this contest unless something Really Weird happens. Vincent/Crono arguments are now pointless since L's definitely going to place. Mario/Samus/Link/Vincent (Crono) is also done for. get ready for the Block's reign -- now no different than Link or Cloud since it's going to first in every match from now on. yay!

oh well, no big deal. let's move on.

today's match features a fading PS1 character, two Brawl guys (shock and awe!) and a third Nintendo-lite character. Alucard is arguably stronger than any of these guys *before* the three-way fanbase split, so he *should* have first locked up unless Diddy is, as we've come fond of saying for whatever reason, 4REAL. but I'd take Alucard over Donkey Kong in this situation (and maybe heads up), so I've got no problem letting Alucard skate into first here thanks to the split.

now, second. the first thing we can do is count out Falcon. dude lost to Wario, who got absolutely demolished by Fox and then lost handily to Meta-Knight in round 2. Falcon is about as weak as you can get being solely from Melee. the one advantage he has over Diddy is that he's in Melee and Diddy isn't, but for him to advance he's going to have to hope Diddy completely bombs and Kratos falls, because Kratos has been equal or stronger than him every year they've made the contests.

Kratos is the only Tales character of reasonable strength. he's underrated in the sense that Tales characters are all-around bad, but Kratos is actually about equal to Kefka. he came close to Midna last year, and no matter what you think of Midna she isn't pure trash. Kratos is also a nice pick here because he's the most independent of the bunch, the only true RPG character of the four and doesn't share the same game as Diddy and Falcon do. if the fanbase splits hard here, Kratos may advance, and I won't be surprised if he does. that said, Kratos is still very tied to Nintendo, as his game is one of the only notable Gamecube titles.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/1/2008 9:08:32 PM | message detail | #064
it's tough to go against Diddy though. Donkey Kong-lite is pretty accurate, though he's got a serious knock against him in that he's not iconic or in Melee. Diddy's got far more fans than Falcon does outside of Smash, though, and I'd expect him to be at least above the fodder line, which is more than Falcon can say. I won't be too surprised if he bombs, but I can't see him falling below Falcon here. his main competition is Kratos.

too much Nintendo
Donkey Kong Country's decent
F-Zero isn't

transience's prediction: Alucard with 33.56%, Diddy Kong with 27.45%, Kratos with 22.00%, Captain Falcon with 16.99%



Ngamer’s Analysis

Darn you Bloooock! But let me clear up something from yesterday before we begin: I don't hate joke characters. Really, I don't. Block and the Dog turned this into an exciting match, WCC forcing either Tidus or DK to choke away R2 will be pretty funny, Hogger knocking out Laharl and Ramza will be worth a laugh, and if the Sandman can actually rise up and punch Magus out of the tourney it will be hilariously embarrassing. My problem is that thanks to the nature of the format, these jokes AREN'T jokes anymore- instead of being worth some giggles and small R1 excitement, 4 ways only make them more dangerous as the competion around them becomes more legitimate. And that's just silly. Examples: that great Vincent vs Crono rematch everyone's been looking forward to seeing? Sorry, now its going to be a meaningless fight for third. That epic duel for a spot in the Final between Vincent and Mario? (Where Mario is weakened enough by Link and Samus to be in serious danger.) Yeah, that's been canceled and replaced by an obvious Link/L-Block advancement.

Past the first round these jokes don't make the tournament more fun, they just turn once-interesting matches into clear results thanks to their dull static joke strength. And that's why we need to return to 1v1s in 2009.

But enough on that subject! Let's thankfully move on to a non-joke match, shall we? Starting with what we saw out of these folks last time around...


Last Known Values
Alucard - 21.09% (2007)
Kratos A - 18.02% (2007)
Diddy - new
Falcon - 15.25% (2007)

This is one of the most unique setups we've ever witnessed, really. You've got Alucard, who has clearly taken a couple steps back since his 2003 glory days and is now only a little ways over the fodder line, by all indications. Then there's Kratos A, who was possibly hurt somewhat by sharing the GameCube with Midna; account for that and he's probably right there at the fodder line. And of course Falcon, who got triply held back by Fox/Wario/Banjo, and is probably right there are the fodder line otherwise (as he was in '06). And the newcomer is none other than Diddy, who by all accounts ought to be a little bit under DK in strength and... whoa, that'd leave him just a little over the fodder line as well!

What to do when all combatants are right next to each other in strength? Well you account for LFF of course! Diddy was planning to pack some newfound punch in '08 thanks to Brawl, but how much will that series be able to help him when three-time series vet Falcon is going to be right there to scoop up much of the support? On the other hand the Capn't has already proven he's near the bottom of the Nintendo food chain- could Diddy really be on a lower rung? The most likely result would seem to be that neither completely ruins the other, but both do enough damage to drop them to the bottom of this pack.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/1/2008 9:09:19 PM | message detail | #065
That leaves us with Alucard- fortunately, Ally's already been in a similar position, and he came through with flying colors! I'm referring of course to the last time we saw a R1 fourpack between seemingly equal opponents, where Alucard essentially tied Liquid Snake and both of them beat out Ness handily, even though he had come in with the advantage of being the only Nintendo character in the mix. Tonight there will be no other PSX-era challenger to limit his potential, so I'd be shocked to see Alucard finish anywhere but first. The bad news is, this forces me to do something I'd promised myself never to attempt again... I'm putting faith in Tales! Hate to, but Kratos Aurion is clearly the "cream" of the crop when it comes to that series, and with Diddy probably not being able to Ulti-blow-him-out even 1v1, the collateral damage from Captain Falcon ought to be just enough to allow KA to squeak by.

That makes plenty of sense... so why do I feel so awful about picking it? Don't know, but better turn those thoughts to numbers before I lose my nerve! Potted and stirred and:

Alucard - 31.85%
Kratos Aurion - 24.21%
Diddy Kong - 23.79%
Captain Falcon - 20.16%

I sure hope an outright Crew victory is part of The Plan- I could really use it at this point.

Ngamer Says: Alucard > Kratos Aurion



Guest’s Analysis - greatone10


Let's see. You've got the Son of Dracula, a futuristic racecar driver with a superhero complex, a hyperactive chimp who is fond of jetpacks and popguns, and an angel swordsman. Quite the eclectic group isn’t it? But what really makes this match interesting is the company affiliations.

Alucard: According to Mike Tenay and Don West, Alucard is Dracula spelled backwards. Alucard of the Castlevania series is a contest mainstay who boasts wins over the likes of Duke Nukem, Kirby, and Kratos, and is currently one-half of the closest result ever. Alucard can also say he has never been snubbed in any contest, which shows how loyal his fans are. Even if his other opponents weren’t fighting against each other for their fanbase, Alucard would still likely be powerful enough to pull off first place in this match.

Captain Falcon: Falcon has tried to show us his moves for the past few contests, and it has worked about as well as Falcon Punching a Bob-omb. This time though, he has about as favorable a set-up as he is going to get. The F-Zero series may not be as prominent as the DKC series, but what he lacks there he needs to make up for with his exposure in every Smash Bros. game. One thing he does have going for him is that he has awesome presentation in the Smash series. His moves look cool, his stages look cool, his music is cool, and he sounds cool. However, the problem is that when Falcon was in this type of SFF situation before, he Falcon Failed. In 2007, he was in an SFF affair against Fox and Wario and the only good thing that can be said about Falcon’s performance was that he was closer to Wario than he was to Banjo.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/1/2008 9:10:11 PM | message detail | #066
Diddy Kong: This is Diddy’s inaugural contest match, and he has a damn good shot at advancing here. In fact, he could take first if Falcon raced somewhere else. Diddy is not only one of the many Brawl characters in the bracket, but he is also the fan favorite and co-star of the Donkey Kong Country series, which includes the undisputed greatest game of all time, DKC2: Diddy’s Kong Quest. Sure you can say that other platformers like Mario were more influential, but DKC2 is just plain better. As for Diddy himself, he's quite popular as well. Diddy Kong is such a fan favorite that absolutely no one complained when Donkey Kong was given the Princess Peach role and Diddy took center stage. The only things Falcon really has going for him is that he was in all three Smash games as opposed to just Brawl and that the DK series hasn’t been relevant for years, going from the best 2-D platforming conceived, to an awful 3-D collect-a-thon with an amusing theme song, to gimmicky bongos and rhythm games, to horrendous GBA ports of the DKC games. Still, it’s better than F-Zero, which was never really relevant in the first place. By the way, the title of the greatest game ever created is not Diddy Kong's Quest, it's Diddy's Kong Quest, as in Diddy's Conquest. Now pick your jaw off the floor.

Kratos Aurion: What really makes this fourpack interesting is the presence of Kratos Aurion, the fan favorite (and probably the only contest worthy character) of Tales of Symphonia, which was at one time a Board 8 favorite. Now you’d have to torture half of Board 8 to get them to say anything positive about ToS. But the people who still like the game (and series) speak with their nominations, and as a result, Kratos gets the best chance he will ever have at Round 2. The hope for him is that Diddy and Falcon compete for the Nintendo fanbase while Kratos slips in the backdoor. This would be nice and all, but there‘s a big problem with that logic. ToS was released on the RPG-starved Gamecube and as a result, a big part of his fanbase is being compromised here as well. There’s also the fact that Kratos is not that strong in the first place and it is rather questionable that he wins this match even if he loses no support to Diddy Falcon (Captain Kong?). It is better to rely on one’s strength than another’s weakness.

I’ve typed way too much about this god damn match, so I’m only going to waste two more sentences before the obligatory percentages. Alucard wins this match easy while Diddy wins the Nintendo war leaving Falcon to compete with Kratos for scraps. DKC2: Diddy’s Kong Quest is the greatest game ever made.

Alucard: 34%
Diddy: 29%
Falcon: 20%
Kratos: 17%



Crew Consensus: Alucard > Diddy is 4REAL, but Ngamer hops on the Lopen Upset Special of Alucard > Kratos
trannyscience | Posted 10/1/2008 9:22:02 PM | message detail | #067
hey Lopen went with a Tales character
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif
DpObliVion | Posted 10/1/2008 10:19:43 PM | message detail | #068
DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

****ing L-Block....

Anyway, once again, we have an easy look at who finishes first and last. Alucard is probably the strongest of the four, and with Diddy Kong and Captain Falcon SFFing each other, Alucard's 1st place is guaranteed. And 4th place goes to Kratos Aurion, because Tales Of, and that's all that needs to be said.

So, second place....hmm, near unanimity for Diddy here, majority for Diddy in Guru....I did have Captain Falcon in my bracket for awhile, but decided to switch to Diddy, but I thought I'd be in more of a minority in seeing a good upset, but apparently most others saw it, too.

At first glance, there is an urge to pick Captain Falcon, as it's not just "BRAWLFEAR," but he has been in SSB since the beginning, especially including SSBM, which I think is more important than SSBB, and Diddy is just in SSBB. Falcon is also very popular in SSB, and as a bit of a fad with his FALCON PUNCH.

However, ultimately this comes down to outside the SSB world. Diddy probably won't get as much as Falcon in the SSB vote, but it won't be a big difference, whereas Falcon likely won't get much from an F-Zero fanbase, while Diddy should benefit greatly from his appearances in the Donkey Kong series and other Mario spinoffs. This could be close though depending on how much of the SSB vote Falcon gets.

Dp's bracket says: Alucard > Diddy Kong

Dp's bracket says: Alucard > Diddy Kong

Confidence: 90%

Alucard - 36%
Diddy Kong - 24%
Captain Falcon - 21%
Kratos Aurion - 19%

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008
DpObliVion | Posted 10/1/2008 10:22:26 PM | message detail | #069
And yeah, I said Kratos would definitely get fourth, but then I did the percentages (that always seems to make a difference, I need to remember to do this before I make my bracket), and I can definitely see Kratos beating Falcon for third if he can reach or pass 20% and Diddy SFFs him enough. I guess I'm expecting less of an SFF between those two.

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008
RaeSaraneth | Posted 10/1/2008 11:16:01 PM | message detail | #070
So I know it's way too early to call anything... but Falcon is looking good so far, and I kind of have him placing in my bracket. I figured he'd have enough hype from the SSB games, but maybe it'll fade out by the time the morning/day votes come in.
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^_^
trannyscience | Posted 10/1/2008 11:24:18 PM | message detail | #071
wow. mud on my face right here.
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif
Master Moltar | Posted 10/1/2008 11:30:52 PM | message detail | #072
Falcon having strength...well now

darn you fox and crono
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Moltar Status: augh
Alucard/C. Falcon/Diddy Kong/Kratos A. - Bracket: Alucard > Diddy - Vote: Diddy (44/56)
DpObliVion | Posted 10/2/2008 12:51:47 AM | message detail | #073
Changing off my gut instinct has cost me 5 points in the last two matches....

And that's not even counting the future rounds of L-Block dominance....

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008
Lopen | Posted 10/2/2008 12:55:23 AM | message detail | #074
hey Lopen went with a Tales character

Kratos very well could beat Diddy Kong here. It wasn't bias, it was lack of faith in Diddy Kong and a proven weak Captain Falcon.

I mean who expected Falcon to do this! (No, he won't be fading, good call, Rae... even if it completely contradicts everything we've seen in previous contests haha)
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
LordLockeRA | Posted 10/2/2008 12:59:58 AM | message detail | #075
Falcon having strength...

... or Diddy and Kratos just that weak?

I'd go with the latter.
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Meeh. Whatever.
Lopen | Posted 10/2/2008 1:02:17 AM | message detail | #076
Well Alucard is no weakling and Falcon's still trying to hang with him. But yeah I'm pretty sure a little of this has to be Kratos Aurion dropping this year and Diddy just sucking ass.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
transience | Posted 10/2/2008 1:04:13 AM | message detail | #077
gotta go with Lopen here. Alucard is pretty weak compared to the old days, but he's not at Falcon's level.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Lopen | Posted 10/2/2008 1:09:28 AM | message detail | #078
All previous stats we have imply that Kratos Aurion vs Alucard is about a 57-43 match.

This is over a doubling. So yeah, I don't think Alucard has dropped... I mean we already have to assume Kratos Aurion dropped for Alucard to be doing this well against him.

And no way Captain Falcon gets this much on Alucard based on everything we've seen from him. Captain Falcon's definitely hopped up on something.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 10/2/2008 1:12:20 AM | message detail | #079
Of course, Diddy and potentially even Kratos may be being LFFed with Falcon. Tough to say how strong Alucard really is.
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SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/
"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
Tomba42 | Posted 10/2/2008 1:15:41 AM | message detail | #080
He's hopped up on FALCON PUNNCCCHHH

</rimshot>
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® Friend Foundation ®
I'd never be jealous of a ten-year-old girl with a full mustache. -Moth366 (AIM on 10/19/05)
transience | Posted 10/2/2008 1:16:52 AM | message detail | #081
Kratos sucking is not that hard to imagine when he's with two other Nintendo guys
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Tomba42 | Posted 10/2/2008 1:17:44 AM | message detail | #082
Plus you guys taught me that Tales characters always lose.
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® Friend Foundation ®
I'd never be jealous of a ten-year-old girl with a full mustache. -Moth366 (AIM on 10/19/05)
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/2/2008 1:19:01 AM | message detail | #083
Except that one match when Lloyd defeated one of the greatest characters in gaming.

Gawd damn... I need a drink.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
LordLockeRA | Posted 10/2/2008 1:22:56 AM | message detail | #084
Interesting to see New Brawl continuing to completely fail at Character Contest, though. Wario, Lucario, Metaknight, now Diddy. Especially with Old Brawl right beside New Brawl here stealing all their potential thunder.

Correct that. CAPTAIN FALCON of stealing all their Thunder. Old Brawl or not... ouch.

If trends continue, things are not looking good for Ike tomorrow.
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Meeh. Whatever.
greatone10 | Posted 10/2/2008 1:24:11 AM | message detail | #085
To think, the best performance Tales of ever did was that one match where Mithos got 40% on Kefka. No matter what Lloyd and Kratos ever do, they will never match what Mithos did.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/2/2008 1:57:03 AM | message detail | #086
To think, the best performance Tales of ever did was that one match where Mithos got 40% on Kefka. No matter what Lloyd and Kratos ever do, they will never match what Mithos did.

Sure, but we're talking about Chokefka here. It's the same story each year. People think this is the year Kefka finally does something, but he sucks ass and flops and phails to deliver.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
Lopen | Posted 10/2/2008 2:05:54 AM | message detail | #087
Nah, Kratos's 43% on Diablo in 2005 was much more impressive than that in my opinion. (and the only reason I thought he had a chance in this match augh)
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
SilverNightmareX7 | Posted 10/2/2008 2:06:41 AM | message detail | #088
Man yoblaze hit that last match with The Block almost dead on for all 4 >_<;
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"It's 1 AM, do you know where SilverNightmareX7 is?
Probably ****ing your mom." - SmartMuffin
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/2/2008 2:16:10 AM | message detail | #089
And now I'm getting my ass kicked in this match! 4way baby yeaaaaah
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
__Smurf__ | Posted 10/2/2008 10:21:21 AM | message detail | #090
How the hell does somebody like Lopen make an analysis crew? I don't care what random buttons he mashed to get a good score last year all of his predictions that I've seen bar none have been ridiculous this year. If you're building a sports punditry you don't go out onto the street and fill the position with the fat naked man yelling support for a team you've never heard of, do you?
It's fine to have a varied panel but if you want your operation here to be respected at least choose regular members with some sort of grasp of how contests work.

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Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism
you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/2/2008 10:24:29 AM | message detail | #091
Man, this match is almost as unexpected as landing a Falcon Punch in a one-on-one Brawl match. It's like Diddy walked right into it!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
Master Moltar | Posted 10/2/2008 11:26:29 AM | message detail | #092
L-Block..........................31.81% 44325
Meta Knight..................22.61% 31510
Ryu (Street Fighter).....31.57% 43990
The Dog........................14.01% 19519
TOTAL VOTES........................139344

What Happened - L ends up looking like a legit character with legit trends. L started with the lead, Ryu caught up overnight, the two went head-to-head in the morning, Ryu pulled away during school, L-Block caught up after school and took the lead, and was able to ride it out for the rest of the day.


Why it Happened - L didn't start out at Round 1 2007 strength. Instead it looked to be like Round 3 2007 L. Meta Knight, in relation to Ryu and L, doesn't end up looking too badly. The Dog also gets some joke votes I guess.


What Will Happen - L is going to be making this real predictable. Oh well...



Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay no one (except Yo)!

Yoblazer - 10
Guest - 9
HM - 9
Tran - 9
Ngamer - 9
Moltar - 8
Lopen - 6


Crew Accuracy Challenge - Yo gets points for Ryu, Dog and L, and Moltar and Yo get points for MK.

Moltar - 14
Yoblazer - 12
HM - 12
Tran - 8
Ngamer - 8
Lopen - 5
Guest (War, KP (2), Dp, Justin) - 5
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Moltar Status: augh
Alucard/C. Falcon/Diddy Kong/Kratos A. - Bracket: Alucard > Diddy - Vote: Diddy (44/56)
Steiner | Posted 10/2/2008 12:58:59 PM | message detail | #093
I'll just be pissed off if we never get my Mario/Samus/Link/Vincent upset special, or at least the Crono version. damn block.
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Lopen | Posted 10/2/2008 2:12:15 PM | message detail | #094
How the hell does somebody like Lopen make an analysis crew? I don't care what random buttons he mashed to get a good score last year all of his predictions that I've seen bar none have been ridiculous this year. If you're building a sports punditry you don't go out onto the street and fill the position with the fat naked man yelling support for a team you've never heard of, do you?
It's fine to have a varied panel but if you want your operation here to be respected at least choose regular members with some sort of grasp of how contests work.


Ah, Smurf. Believe it or not, sometimes the quality of your write-ups count, despite what you seem to think with your jokes of list topics. People don't entirely care if I'm right or not, I stir up the pot and make write-ups that are fun/interesting to read in doing so.

But regardless, my score is only two less (and my Lloyd write-up was really just for fun to hype up an upset that had no chance, I admitted that several times and my bracket didn't support my write-up there) than my fellow analysts. I had a few blunders, but yeah. I don't quite get it. Are you deciding to troll me because I'm vocal about your list topics sucking ass?

I'm still going to end up with a higher score than you in the end. Your path for L-Block makes utterly no sense, Sandbag is going to flop, and you've got a few round 1/2 picks to come that have very little chance of occurring. (though I would've said the same about Falcon or Duke to be fair so who knows with this contest)
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
gamer88coool | Posted 10/2/2008 3:43:22 PM | message detail | #095
"The only bad pick you can make here is to take Captain Falcon"

LOL
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Character Battle 7 currently: 42 points
Today:Falcon>Kratos Tomorrow: Ike>Pikachu
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/2/2008 3:47:57 PM | message detail | #096
The Crew all has egg on our face today, but last night's Falcon 4way matches were fun as hell and worth it.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
__Smurf__ | Posted 10/2/2008 3:56:08 PM | message detail | #097
so who knows with this contest

Me apparently. You act like random results have been occuring when in fact outside of the first 4 matches everything has gone exactly by the book. You could be right on the scores, I took a huge gamble on sandbag and reality is I'm either going to win the contest or be crushed based on that. But my judgement has served me well up to now and I have no reason to believe it'll fail now.

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Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism
you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/2/2008 4:02:51 PM | message detail | #098
I have Sandbag in the finals how about you
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Lopen | Posted 10/2/2008 4:36:53 PM | message detail | #099
Me apparently

Smurf, get over yourself. You're not going to do well. I've seen your picks for coming rounds and quite frankly a lot of them are pretty abysmal based on what we've seen this year. Wario taking second in R2? That's like the worst pick anyone could make in that match ever with Link there. Granted, I have Shadow, which is technically a worse pick at this point but really now, before the contest Wario was absolutely the worst pick this side of Tales of the Abyss. That's just the tip of the iceberg.

Your logic was also inconsistent. How do you have Duke doing so well then have Ike losing to Arthas? That makes no damn sense at all. (Ike's getting 1st tomorrow by the way... and no that's not even in my bracket, unfortunately) If anyone's the "button masher" here it's you.

Enjoy your time at the top, it's not going to last.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
trannyscience | Posted 10/2/2008 4:38:49 PM | message detail | #100
oh man, contest prediction trash talk, ima get in on this

HEY MOLTAR, KNUCKLES LOL
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xyzzy
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