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Character Battle VII Contest Analysis Crew

VicPez | Posted 9/19/2008 12:20:00 AM | message detail | #101
Good to know I'm not the only one feeling like an idiot right now.
"Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent." - Foundation, Isaac Asimov
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 12:21:15 AM | message detail | #102
So, HM? Isn't it great being the only person to get a match right?

Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/19/2008 12:22:39 AM | message detail | #103
Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
ZFS | Posted 9/19/2008 12:23:53 AM | message detail | #104
especially when its fueled by fanboyism

(46% for Zack oh so close)

let's mosey
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 12:24:54 AM | message detail | #105
I had Zidane pegged at 16.2%.

My fanboyism wasn't strong enough!

Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
Ngamer64 | Posted 9/19/2008 12:26:15 AM | message detail | #106
I mentioned this in Stats, but... from 45% on Mario to 19% on Link.

I'm too stunned to speak.

Hot Content: |
He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
ZFS | Posted 9/19/2008 12:27:56 AM | message detail | #107
Shouldn't be too far off post-day vote!, Shadow is really terrible. Dude's looking at under 14% here soon

let's mosey
Lopen | Posted 9/19/2008 12:33:04 AM | message detail | #108
Pullin for Luke to take some updates over Shadow... come on, man, you can do it!
Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
RaeSaraneth | Posted 9/19/2008 12:43:30 AM | message detail | #109
For some reason I thought Shadow would do better, and I now have no clue why.
AndrewWarner | Posted 9/19/2008 1:40:53 AM | message detail | #110

The man in black fled across the desert, and the gunslinger followed.
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2008 5:53:39 AM | message detail | #111
Sonic Team pulls through again!
Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
JaMarcusRussell | Posted 9/19/2008 6:07:47 AM | message detail | #112
Crew has been fairly bad thus far >_>
The 2008 Oakland Raiders Season "The Road to Perfection"
Regular Season Record 1-1
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2008 7:45:02 AM | message detail | #113
It’s his to lose, honestly, but Sonic Team has proven in the past that, when they can blow a match, they usually do. Shadow should get second here, but don’t take it for granted.

This is from my own personal analysis. Learning more and more how true this is!
Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
vcharon | Posted 9/19/2008 10:13:23 AM | message detail | #114
Looks like match 4 will have to be the one everyone can get right...

Master Moltar | Posted 9/19/2008 10:37:55 AM | message detail | #115
Cecil Harvey............16.35% 22142
Jade Curtiss..............5.92% 8023
Wario......................33.09% 44824
Zack Fair................44.64% 60472
TOTAL VOTES...................135461

What Happened: Well, Wario and Zack started off close, but after 15 minutes, Zack just ran away with the match. Wario kind of died over night, yet recovered a little during the day. Zack, like a true FF7 character, did well throughout the whole match. We still don't know if Cecil helped, hurt, or has no effect on Zack and vice versa. Jade just kind of did really bad.

Why it Happened: Some people predicted Zack would have decent strength (darn you hm). He just did better than almost everyone thought. Then again, he is FF7 after all. Wario also looks to be not as liked by the Nintendo fanbase as we had thought. It's too early to tell, but this is either Zack being a serious midcarder or him taking advantage of a very weak Wario.

What will Happen: Round 2 should be very interesting. We should see if Zack really is all that with Link around. Wario we're going to be in the dark about because Link will kill him.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Changing this a little. Now you just get a point if you call the match right. HM is the lone genius today.

HM - 1
Moltar - 0
Yoblazer - 0
Lopen - 0
Tran - 0
Ngamer - 0
Guest - 0

Crew Accuracy Challenge - This is still the same. Whoever predicted the final percent of each character the closest gets the point. War gets a point for Wario (i'm shocked), HM gets the point for zack zack zack, HM and Yo get points for Cecil, and Lopen gets a point for Jade.

HM - 2
Yoblazer - 1
Lopen - 1
Guest (War) - 1
Moltar - 0
Tran - 0
Ngamer - 0
Moltar Status: =D
Link/Luke/Shadow/Zidane - Bracket: Link > Shadow - Vote: Shadow (2/4)
_Hogger_ | Posted 9/19/2008 10:42:12 AM | message detail | #116
Looks like match 4 will have to be the one everyone can get right...

Nintendo has been disappointing.. who knows, Altair might beat Lucario.
RaeSaraneth | Posted 9/19/2008 12:08:57 PM | message detail | #117
Yeah, I'm kind of hoping Altair will pull through when his match comes, but who knows. My predictions haven't been totally right yet but at least one other person on the crew has had the same prediction as me, so I'm not just totally out there. I was banking too much on the nintendo character fanbase thing. At least I've got aone point on my bracket, so far... heh.
DpObliVion | Posted 9/19/2008 1:30:36 PM | message detail | #118
Well, I was right. Too bad I was right after I decided my bracket....

Character Battle VII *PRINTABLE BRACKET* - Look in my profile for links. GO SONIC
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 3:09:27 PM | message detail | #119
*insert gloating*

Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 6:28:50 PM | message detail | #120
*insert more gloating*

Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
th3l3fty | Posted 9/19/2008 6:36:32 PM | message detail | #121
Consistency Ratings tonight after the match is over!
thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
Master Moltar | Posted 9/19/2008 6:41:18 PM | message detail | #122
I hope White Rabbit didn't forget to do his write-up for tomorrow's match. It's only the craziest one of Round 1!

(someone be ready to last-minute steal it)
Moltar Status: augh
Link/Luke/Shadow/Zidane - Bracket: Link > Shadow - Vote: Shadow (2/4)
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 6:49:10 PM | message detail | #123
If he hasn't done it by 11:30, I'll pinch hit a writeup.

Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
trannyscience | Posted 9/19/2008 6:50:20 PM | message detail | #124
11:30's usually too late since they're usually posted around 10-ish.

never hurts to have something ready though, and if that doesn't work you can always post it in the stats topic with the other 10 analyses.
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2008 6:50:27 PM | message detail | #125
I've got an analysis ready, so it's free for you to use if you so desire.
Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
RaeSaraneth | Posted 9/19/2008 7:49:32 PM | message detail | #126
The gap between Shadow and Zidane closed a teeny tiny bit through the day, but alas, my bracket will take another hit -_- Good luck to everyone on the upcoming battle, though :D
Master Moltar | Posted 9/19/2008 7:55:21 PM | message detail | #127
Alright, I'll give White Rabbit until 10 PM EST, which is about one more hour. If it's not in by then (meaning I don't post before then in this topic), then the Guest is whoever posts here first wanting to do it.
Moltar Status: augh
Link/Luke/Shadow/Zidane - Bracket: Link > Shadow - Vote: Shadow (2/4)
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 7:58:10 PM | message detail | #128
If Leonhart has one already, he should have the spot.

Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2008 7:58:56 PM | message detail | #129
I'll defer to anyone else who wants to do it if they can get it done in time.
Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
Justin_Crossing | Posted 9/19/2008 8:01:58 PM | message detail | #130
Wait, there's a prediction challenge for this one too?


Kefka: 20%
Niko: 28%
Marth: 30%
Duke: 22%
Life may be unfair... But you can do something about it.
th3l3fty | Posted 9/19/2008 8:03:22 PM | message detail | #131
just take it leon
thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2008 8:24:32 PM | message detail | #132
At the very least, I'll give the actual guest time to get his write-up in.
Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
Ed Bellis | Posted 9/19/2008 8:25:56 PM | message detail | #133
I just made a writeup in my own analysis topic. Feel free to use it - IF YOU DARE
ed status: doin thangs
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2008 9:01:22 PM | message detail | #134
Need that write-up?
Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
Master Moltar | Posted 9/19/2008 9:25:12 PM | message detail | #135
Moltar Status: augh
Link/Luke/Shadow/Zidane - Bracket: Link > Shadow - Vote: Shadow (2/4)
Master Moltar | Posted 9/19/2008 9:41:13 PM | message detail | #136
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
trannyscience | Posted 9/19/2008 9:42:23 PM | message detail | #137
uhh analysis crew spoilers
Ed Bellis | Posted 9/19/2008 9:42:25 PM | message detail | #138
ed status: doin thangs
Master Moltar | Posted 9/19/2008 9:43:47 PM | message detail | #139
Division 1: Round 1 - Match 3 – Duke Nukem vs. Kefka vs. Marth vs. Niko Bellic

Moltar’s Analysis

Game/Series Known From: Duke Nukem
2007 Results: 1st Place in Round 1 vs. Gordon, Ike and Guybrush
4th Place in Round 2 vs. Sonic, Sub-Zero and Gordon

The Duke is back with more bubblegum to chew

Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy VI
2007 Results: 2nd Place in Round 1 vs. Marcus Fenix, Tom Nook and Zelos
4th Place in Round 2 vs. Cloud, Marcus Fenix and Ocelot

Kefka and debatable matches go together like Board 8 and Phoenix Wright

Game/Series Known From: Fire Emblem
2007 Results: 3rd Place in Round 1 vs. Kratos, DK and Prince of all Cosmos

Brawl Character #3, and you know, his popularity comes from the Smash series

Game/Series Known From: Grand Theft Auto IV
2007 Results: N/A

Niko, my cousin, welcome to the GameFAQs Character Battles!

Well, Link easily takes first place, but the real question is who takes second.

This is one of the most dangerous and hardest to call matches of Round 1. Not only are the top 2 slots up for grabs, but a winner here could end up walking out of this division.

So let’s look at everyone first. Duke shocked a lot of people by winning his fourpack last year, which was pretty much garbage. You have GFNW, a Brawl-hype powered Ike, and Guybrush, who could be beat by anything. He then went on to get crushed once he actually faced competition. Once again, Duke gets stuck in a weak Round 1 fourpack, so he has a chance of advancing yet again.

Kefka has a history of not performing up to par. From his 2003 debut being a poor performance against Pac-Man, Kefka has continued to let everyone who puts even the slightest amount of faith in him down. Knuckes? Ulti-style blowout. A falling Vercetti? Not even barriers could help him win. 2006? Kefka doesn’t even show up! 2007 is what we want to look at though, as it’s a 4-way match. Kefka blows the lead in both his matches to Marcus Fenix. Of course, there is the chance that being with Cloud hurt, but even in Round 1 Kefka couldn’t beat Fenix. Will being the only Square character here give him an advantage?

Marth is only decent here because of his appearances in one of the biggest series on GameFAQs, Super Smash Bros. He’s great to play in both games, and his popularity has lead to Fire Emblem being a decent-selling series here. Marth didn’t look too bad last year with DK in the poll to SFF him. This time around, Marth is the only Nintendo character, and he has Brawl behind him to give him a boost.

Niko is the last character, and the one everyone has their eyes on. We’ve seen GTA flop before in GTA vs. Warcraft. We even saw the new character, CJ, job to Ness of all characters. Vercetti is also getting old, and he looked terrible in 2007. This isn’t the best track record for GTA, but things can turn around with Niko. His game is very fresh and did very well, both in sales and reviews. The game is popular at GameFAQs, but the big question is if people care for and will vote for Niko.

This match is horrible because you have to put a lot of faith in either Kefka or GTA, and from looking back at past contests; both of those are very bad moves to make. I think Marth will take first here without too much sweat. He looked good last year, and being the only Nintendo character AND having Brawl should help him a bit (and before you make the inevitable Wario comparison, Marth is favored more than Wario by the Nintendo fanbase, so he is less likely to flop). Second is a toss-up between Kefka, Niko and Duke. Duke could take it, considering no one here is strong. However, this fourpack is a lot more casual friendly than his group last year, so I don’t think Duke has that great of a shot.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/19/2008 9:44:12 PM | message detail | #140
The big question for me is Niko or Kefka for second. For weeks I had Kefka advancing, but I just didn’t feel good about it, and I didn’t have any real reasoning behind it except “Well, Kefka may have lost to Fenix last year but he didn’t do that bad in Round 1 and Cloud held him back in Round 2”. Then on the last day I switched to Niko, and now I feel a lot better about the match. Niko has a great shot if he’s as strong as Fenix was, and I don’t see why he wouldn’t be as GTA4 is bigger than Gears. Yeah, he could turn out to be another CJ, but I’d rather go with the unknown this time around.

Besides, have you seen Kefka’s pic? Niko looks awesome and Kefka got…that thing.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Marth > Niko

Moltar’s Prediction is: Marth: 31% - Niko: 26% - Kefka: 24% - Duke: 19%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Back to the good matches. Zack aside, this was probably the most argued match of the bracket. You can make a case for any of these four making it to the next round. And what's worse is that the two you pick here are going to at least round 3. Makes this match actually meaningful due to the number of points at stake.

My gut reaction was to go with Kefka over Marth, but after reading some arguments - and coming to the realization that Amano art was a guarantee here - I decided to back off of Kefka and go with Niko, who's another big question mark. The only character I'm confident that makes it out of here is Marth. He did well enough last year and he's coming off of Brawl, and it helps that he's a unique character in this situation.

So it comes down to the Duke, Kefka, and Niko. As much as Kefka should have no problems taking this, he has a problem losing matches that he has no business losing. And Niko's not only a likeable protagonist, but also fresh off of GTAIV's enormous success. How GTA does on GameFAQs is certainly questionable, and Vercetti wasn't lighting anyone on fire last year, but with Vice City being so far removed from the public mindset that's probably not too surprising. GTA characters strike me as doing their absolute best when a GTA has just recently come out, and they continue to dwindle as the years pass and other games are released. With GTAIV being a multi-platform title, being widespread, and having a pretty solid reception, it's not hard to see Niko slip by for second.

Still, Kefka's not completely without strength. He did well enough with Cloud in the poll against Marcus Fenix and Ocelot, but he's going to need more than 13% if he wants a chance here. He's going to have to take a nice percentage for himself, against competition that's around his level, if not a little higher. That's a tall order for someone like Kefka, but it wouldn't be the least bit surprising if he pulled it off, especially with an unknown like Niko. But better to trust in the unknown whose potential is higher than the known's ceiling.

The Duke? Get him outta here.

Prediction: Marth - 32% ; Niko - 28% ; Kefka - 25% ; Duke - 15%
Bracket: Marth > Niko
Vote: Niko

Yoblazer’s Analysis

Hey guys! Welcome to prediction hell! Of the three or so Round 1 matches not to feature and inanimate object, this has been the most debated, and it's not hard to see why. We have four distinct characters, all of whom, at first glance, seem to be relatively equal in strength. Something this wide open is bound to attract a wealth of different arguments and predictions. So... Duke Nukem, Kefka, Marth, and Niko Bellic. Who'll move on? Who'll pack it up? Let's take a look.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/19/2008 9:44:54 PM | message detail | #141
Despite the wide open nature of this match, Marth has emerged as the first place favorite, and with good reason. He's the only Nintendo option we've got, and unlike some previous fatasses in biker gear, he'll actually manage to be a somewhat appealing, likable option for the Nintendo faithful. Marth is still a largely unknown quantity, having only competed in one match before (in this uninformative format, no less). That match, however, left people impressed. The Fire Emblem star (yep, that's what brought him here, alright!) managed a respectable 20.65% against a very powerful Kratos and a stronger Nintendo option in Donkey Kong, a guy many predictors thought would SFF Marth. Granted, DK is known more for his shortcomings than his successes, but for Marth to stand firm against a very familiar Nintendo face with nothing more than a sword and SSBM is impressive. This poll has no entrants as strong as Kratos or DK, so I can imagine Marth bulking up some serious percentage on his prior performance. Tough match for sure, but I'd still be pretty surprised if Marth didn't win.

The battle for second place is even more complicated. While most of us have little faith in Duke Nukem challenging to place, the debates for Final Fantasy VI's Kefka and Grand Theft Auto IV's Niko have been very heated. I'm a Kefka supporter. While it may seem crazy to trust a character who twice lost to Marcus Fenix last year (after all, many would assume that GTAIV's main would be even stronger than Gears of War's main), I think Kefka can make something happen. Hindsight is 20/20, but Kefka was put in an awful situation last year. Accompanying him and Marcus were two very weak characters (one of which was from an RPG - just sayin!), which immediately thrust the two foes into the spotlight. Marcus stuck out as the only casual option, a cool looking main character from a very popular Xbox shooter. Kefka stood out... as lettuce. Again. He got lettuce'D again. In a match where he and Fenix were pulling in 70% of the vote between them, it simply wasn't happening for ol' Kefka. He just wasn't broadly appealing enough.

This time, however, he is among much more evenly matched competition. If Marth makes a dash for 30%+, even an unspectacular 25% can secure a second round spot, and that's something Kefka and his hardcore fanbase can manage. Luckily, he's the only RPG character in the poll and no I'm not going to count SMASHFEAR Marth so don't even bring it up. And hopefully, we won't have to serve him up as a ****ing salad for the fourteenth year in a row (why did I bet against lettuce dammit I know he's gonna get lettuce).

Being an unknown from a very high selling mega-game, Niko Bellic certainly has a greater maximum potential than Kefka, but I have real doubts about this guy pulling through. For starters, Niko will have to rely on casual support much more than Marth or Kefka, who each have their own devoted niches. Unfortunately for him, casual support is how Duke Nukem, the fourth member of this odd quartet, makes his living. While the other three dudes are likely strong enough to fizzle Duke's chances, whatever casual support he does drum up will almost certainly hurt Niko the most. Watching Tommy Vercetti sputter through with his worst ever contest performance last year doesn't give me any additional hope for Niko, either. Seriously, Master Chief or not, Tommy ****ing stunk it up in an inexcusable way.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/19/2008 9:45:28 PM | message detail | #142
Another point I have heard brought up only sparingly is Niko's game, GTAIV, and the fact that it's just sorta... disappeared. It certainly sold well, but where the heck is it now? Never since 2001 has a main GTA game faded from the gaming community's eyes so quickly. GTA games are supposed to stay popular and talked about for months. Years. For a period of over five years, a Grand Theft Auto game always occupied a spot in the GameFAQs Top 10 Games list. Well, IV certainly dropped that ball. Where is it as I write this analysis? It's in 26th place. Twenty-sixth place for a GTA game a few months after release is unacceptable. The game's message boards are comparatively dead, too. What happened? That, more than anything, makes me feel very uneasy about Niko's chances. His game was supposed to be the biggest "real game" of this generation, and people just stopped caring. Not a good sign.

Overall, while I'm feeling pretty good about my predictions, I expect some sweet sweet lettuce for this one wait did I say lettuce I meant CHAOS ****ing Kefka, he's gonna get lettuce I swear

Marth - 30%
Kefka - 26%
Niko Bellic - 24%
Duke Nukem - 20%

Lopen’s Analysis

People have every combination in this match, I think... but I think it's a bit easier than it seems. A bit of the old fashioned divide and conquer will clear this up.

First... the Duke, boy. Some crazy people think The Duke has a chance in this match. Let me tell you as someone who correctly called him last year... DUKEFEAR is likely a symptom of The Duke and his balls of steel owning up on fools' brackets last year. This fourpack is a league above what The Duke limped by last year. And most importantly, The Duke's opponents have widespread recognizability on their side, unlike those jokers The Duke was with last year.

Second... Jade Curt-- whoops, he's really dead this time amazing. Niko Bellic. This guy is the star of GTA4 whoamigosh instant win right? Yeah, well it's a shame GTA isn't very good in these things. GTA's illustrious contest history includes: Well, I'll spare you the history lesson but it includes a lot of choking and disappointment.

And hey, remember last year when Vercetti got his head kicked in by Master Chief, going almost to PaRappa levels? Ha ha ha oh man GAMEFUEL THEFT AUTO. ... ... okay that was terrible. Point is I don't think GTA is the friend of this format if anything resembling mainstream is there (hello Marth), and honestly given its history even if it's not this is probably a tough match for Niko... he's not likely to be significantly stronger than these guys, if he is stronger at all. I'll not bother with him, but the potential is there.

So now... now we're left with Marth vs Kefka. Given Kefka's history of choking, I'm almost inclined to bet against him on that alone. But hey, there's more than that. Marth didn't look bad at all last year. Against DK, Kratos, and the Prince of all Cosmos he got about 20%. Really... put Kefka in there and he probably only does a little better than Marth did (using the spiffy estimator on GameFAQsContests suggests this too)... and this is not even considering any SFF between DK and Marth throwing him down. Marth is probably just stronger than Kefka, methinks. Unless, of course, we get Angel Kefka for round 1... in which case, you won't even see this paragraph, replaced with a new one strongly endorsing his almighty power.

Lopen's Prediction:
Marth - 30.02%
Kefka - 27.12%
Duke Nukem - 22.13%
Niko Bellic - 20.73%

Transience’s Analysis

oh god, hardest match to call of the first round -- and in a way, the contest. the worst part is that there are two characters that, if they get past round 1, they could go to round 4 without too much trouble. I'll preface this by saying that there's no right and wrong answer here and that anyone could finish anywhere. now then..
Master Moltar | Posted 9/19/2008 9:46:08 PM | message detail | #143
Duke Nukem

oh, Duke. I just don't know what to think of you. you're kind of like a joke character - your game never comes out, your pictures are utterly ludicrous, and your quotes.. oh god, your quotes. I see Duke Nukem as being the kind of guy who gets votes because no one cares about his competition. they're like "who the hell are these guys.. oh, Duke Nukem. I'll vote for him, I guess." seeing as how Duke's got a loved Square character, a well-liked character from GameFAQs' game of the generation, and the most popular new character from 2008, I question how he's going to get a significant number of votes. Duke's impressed me before, though, so I won't put it past him if it does happen. too bad his XBLA port doesn't come out til Wednesday.


oh, Kefka. I want to have faith in you. you've got a real fanbase behind you, and I know you're going to start out with the lead because the beginning of the poll's voters (and brackets) love you. despite having Cloud in the poll, you still managed to take a lead on Ocelot and Fenix. people really like you and you seem like you should be right up GameFAQs' alley, but.. you're not. you've got the worst day vote this side of a joke character, and your picture is most likely going to be hideous compared to your brethren. (update: holy WHAT)

the thing that bugs me about Kefka is that, if he makes it through round 1, he's probably looking at skating thanks to two Nintendo characters in the poll, and then he'd have a sprite in round 3. he could conceivably go to round 4 but round 1 is his hardest match, somehow. ultimately, when I think about Kefka, I think about how he got *slaughtered* in the daytime by Marcus Fenix. it's tough for me to see Niko losing to Marcus Fenix.


there's an easy comparison to be made with Duke and Marth: Duke barely beat Ike, who had yet to be in a Smash Bros. game. Marth is in both Melee and Brawl, is liked, is the only Nintendo character in the poll and put up a pretty good performance against a Nintendo icon. 20% against Kratos and Donkey Kong is better than anyone else in this fourpack has shown, and he's got Brawl now. from a logical standpoint, it's tough to pick against him.


oh man, you're a wildcard. your game was hot, getting rave reviews and is the single best selling game of this generation. you were all over TV and the internet for weeks before and after the game came out.

on the flipside, you've kinda faded into the background a bit as people got over your game. your predecessors lost to Ness and nearly lost to Kefka. everyone seems to argue Vercetti as being stronger than you, though I'm not really sure why. I think Niko will do fine - he won't bomb, but he won't set the world on fire. but he doesn't have to in order to take this fourpack.

now then, I think Marth is a safe pick for the reasons stated above. I just trust Nintendo's guys to come through a lot more than I do old Square, old PC or a GTA character. I think he'll win comfortably on that merit. for second, I've got Niko. I think Kefka's a really fun pick, but when I think about the lettuce I can't help but be extremely skeptical. between not trusting Duke and not trusting Kefka, I've gotta roll the dice with Niko. he scares the hell out of me in upcoming matches. one pick that was eating at me on the last day of brackets was Niko to round 4. I really like it but didn't pull the trigger on it because of the chance of him being out in round 1. so I picked Shadow instead LOL

lettuce? can't pick that.
Duke Nukem? not enough gum.
Niko? the least worst.

transience's prediction: Marth with 30.95%, Niko with 28.88%, Kefka with 23.24%, Duke with 16.93%
Master Moltar | Posted 9/19/2008 9:46:34 PM | message detail | #144
Ngamer’s Analysis

Oh wow... Wario and Zack I could have seen going either way, but I was so confident in Shadow that I nearly called that result a lock in my Impressions topic a week back or so. Quite the surprise, and it leaves the Crew 0 for 2 heading into... the most unpredictable poll of the entire first round! Uh oh!

This four pack is just a mess no matter which way you look at it. Let's try to make at least some sense of this probable disaster by reviewing some base stats.

Last Known Values
Marth - 17.12% (2007)
Kefka - 19.07% (2007)
Duke - 20.87% (2007)
Niko - unknown

Poor Marth got the short end of the stick- he got stuck in a match with Donkey Kong, and those two hurt each other pretty badly while allowing Kratos to scamper off to an undeserved blowout. I give Marth the benefit of the doubt in this pack because he at least showed us something- after trailing big early, he made a huge SSB-fueled after school comeback and beat DK outright for a few hours. Yeah it was just DK, but even so, I wouldn't pick anyone else in this group to be able to do the same.

Kefka's 19 is probably just about accurate. After a great start he had one of the worst collapses ever against Marcus Fenix to throw that match away with the ASV. But, we know he's going to do well in the early going, we know Square has been looking great so far this year, and does Niko really have the kind of mini-Master Chieft ASV potential that Marcus showed us?

Speaking of Niko, he's of course a first-timer without a Contest history, so let's assign him the 16.25% that Vercetti earned last year in R1. Probably Tommy got casual-SFFed somewhat by MC and deserves higher, but on the other hand, why would anyone believe Niko is even in Tommy's league, SFFed or not? I remember when GTA3 became the big thing years back and shot to the top of the FAQ charts. Then VC was launched, and it was almost always the #1 FAQ page on the site for a year and a half. Then SA came out, exact same thing. GTA4 did the same... for a couple months, but look where it sits now. 26th place. Scroll a little further down the list and... there's GTA:SA, in 33rd. It's September 2008, and yet there are nearly as many people playing and needing help with the GTA game that launched in 2004 as there are for the one from earlier this year. Sorry, but if that isn't the definition of a lack of staying power I don't know what is!

And then there's Duke. I've got to admit that with the rest of this group so up in the air, I gave serious thought to picking him for second if he was going to get his Duke Milk'em picture. As is though, he pulled down a value of around 21 in that opening match, which is probably about accurate. But then he completely collapsed as soon as decent competition arrived in R2. The rest of this group isn't exactly "decent", but they're at least a step up from what he saw in '07, so I can't see him picking up those "meh at least I recognize this guy" votes he used back then.

In summary, Duke seems like a reliable choice for around 20% but not much more, Marth seems a reliable choice to ride the SSB ASV to around 30, Kefka seems reliable to hang with Marth or lead outright early before collapsing back to the mid 20s during the Day, and Niko... is totally unreliable, and could do anything from jobbing horribly into the teens to giving Marth a serious run. But when I throw my best guesstimates into the pot, here's what I come up with for these guys:

Marth - 32.74%
Kefka - 24.18%
Niko Bellic - 22.08%
Duke Nukem - 21.00%

I don't like it, but with Niko involved I probably wouldn't like anything!

Ng Says: Marth > Kefka
Master Moltar | Posted 9/19/2008 9:47:45 PM | message detail | #145
Guest’s Analysis - Leonhart

Duke Nukem

The Duke is back in another heavily debated first round match. That’s just how he likes it, I suppose. He managed to win his match last year due to the sheer obscurity of his fourpack, but he won’t be quite so lucky last year. As his second round match proved, I think Duke will suffer when he’s facing characters people actually know. He’s facing a FF lead villain, a Smash character, and the main character of GTA IV, so there are some characters people actually know. Still, I won’t count him out because this match is all kinds of messed up, but I think last place is the most likely finish for Mr. Nukem.


The Character Battle’s perennial underperformer, Kefka is once again put into a favorable position. He had a good shot to win his first round match last year, but he got destroyed by Marcus Fenix’s day vote and didn’t fare too well in his second round match either (though Cloud was there). I personally have a hard time putting my trust in Kefka to do anything because he’s done basically nothing but disappoint his entire contest career. He could win this match outright, or he could bomb yet again. In my opinion, the latter is most likely.


Now Marth gets a chance to show us what he can really do. Free from Nintendo LFF and fresh off of Brawl, he’s put into a position to do some damage. He did decently last year even with DK in the poll, and with the site in a Brawl frenzy, Marth will be looking to capitalize on it. While there are many viable solutions to this first round mess, none of them (in my opinion) involve Marth failing to advance. He’s the one you have to worry the least about. Each of the other three have good reason to worry about bombing. For that reason alone, I’d say your best bet is to have Marth winning. At worst, he gets second place.

Niko Bellic

Ah, the main character of the newest Grand Theft Auto game makes his debut. Just like the Duke and Kefka, he generates his fair share of doubt. Carl Johnson bombed against Ness (another character who gets the majority of his strength from Smash Bros.), Vercetti’s strength was continually slipping, and it seems like GTA’s overall popular has been slipping as well. Still, I think Niko has reason enough to do well. CJ had some obvious problems, and at Vice City’s peak, Vercetti would’ve had no problem advancing. Niko is considered very likeable, and so I think he can do well here. His potential strength is the highest of the four, in my personal opinion, but he has massive bombing potential as well.

Smash Overestimation Here?
Clowns Are Hopeful
Though Ousted Again

Duke Nukem – 20.12%
Kefka – 25.44%
Marth – 27.33%
Niko Bellic – 27.11%

Crew Consensus: The Crew was split 3-3 between Niko and Kefka for second, but with the Guest, we officially go with Marth > Niko!
Master Moltar | Posted 9/19/2008 9:49:01 PM | message detail | #146
tran like 10 seconds after i made that post i realized i could go to that topic

and ed i'll use yours last-minute next time i swear
Moltar Status: augh
Link/Luke/Shadow/Zidane - Bracket: Link > Shadow - Vote: Shadow (2/4)
Ed Bellis | Posted 9/19/2008 9:49:03 PM | message detail | #147
you fools

ed status: doin thangs
trannyscience | Posted 9/19/2008 9:55:26 PM | message detail | #148
Analysis Crew Curse strikes again

Ngamer, those FAQ numbers aren't exactly fair because they're split between the two versions of GTA4. make it exclusive and it'd do a lot better.
NotTerrafire | Posted 9/19/2008 9:58:07 PM | message detail | #149
sort of rooting for Duke to do well now, to put the crew 0 for 3 in a humiliating way
despite it hurting my bracket for a couple of points
DpObliVion | Posted 9/19/2008 9:59:17 PM | message detail | #150
DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

Well, I'm still waiting for my first full 4 points....and we're going into possibly the biggest tossup of Round 1. It seems like all 4 characters in this poll have just as good a chance as any to advance: Kefka has the FF vote, Marth has the SSB/Nintendo vote, Niko is coming off one of the biggest multiplatform games, and Duke is just a bad ass who everyone knows. On the flip side, all four have potential to fail, as we've seen with Kefka/GTA/FE.

While FF has already cost me 4 points by outperforming, I still can't put faith in Kefka advancing against a popular Nintendo vote and a popular GTA vote. Sure, the GTA vote usually isn't much, but GTA4 has blown away the popularity of the previous GTAs.

I'm going with Niko to take first here, with Marth in second, but once again, I'm having serious doubts about getting all four points. Why would a popular GTA vote beat a popular SSB vote? I don't know now. Marth without SFF could be pretty dangerous. But I still can't trust him all that much.

I really would not be surprised to see even Kefka win with the FF vote, or Duke advance. Really, any combination is quite possible, IMO. This will be interesting.

DpOblivion's bracket says: Niko > Marth

DpOblivion's prediction is: Niko >, Marth >, Niko > Kefka......ugh, I'll just stick with Niko > Marth.

Niko - 28.50%
Marth - 27.50%
Kefka - 23%
Duke - 21%

Seriously, I'm starting to think Niko has no shot at taking first here....

Character Battle VII *PRINTABLE BRACKET* - Look in my profile for links. GO SONIC