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Character Battle VII Contest Analysis Crew

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/17/2008 9:23:13 PM | message detail | #051
Looks like I'll have to remind myself, first...
Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Lopen | Posted 9/17/2008 10:33:09 PM | message detail | #052
Dammit War, now I have to work for my point.

Well I'm glad most of the crew isn't REALLY drinking the Zack Fair tea, and are just going off of the supreme weakness of Cecil for the most part.

Intro was awesome by the way.
Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
DpObliVion | Posted 9/17/2008 10:39:06 PM | message detail | #053
My new unofficial percentages:

Wario - 36%
Zack - 29%
Cecil - 24%
Jade - 11%

I think I was overestimating Zack before. Maybe still am.

Or maybe I'm underestimating him....

I don't know. **** Zack.

Character Battle VII *PRINTABLE BRACKET* - Look in my profile for links. GO SONIC
XxSoulxX | Posted 9/17/2008 10:48:20 PM | message detail | #054
Guess it will be up to me to get the majority of the Guest points again this year.


I could have sworn I won the Analysis Crew twice in a row a while back... Why do you think you deserve to be cocky?
Good Times,
Great Memories
XxSoulxX | Posted 9/17/2008 10:49:35 PM | message detail | #055
Also of note, why isn't the past crew's up on the wiki?
Good Times,
Great Memories
DpObliVion | Posted 9/17/2008 11:19:18 PM | message detail | #056
Definitely should've left my percentages alone....

Oh well, as long as Wario pulls it out for the win....I really don't care much about the percentages and almost wasn't even gonna bother, but I like comparing my terrible attempts at guessing percentages with you guys. Which once again, I am proving that I suck at that.

Character Battle VII *PRINTABLE BRACKET* - Look in my profile for links. GO SONIC
transience | Posted 9/17/2008 11:34:23 PM | message detail | #057
annnd Heroic Mario is our lone intelligent person today.
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/17/2008 11:35:18 PM | message detail | #058
annnd Heroic Mario is our lone intelligent person today.

bad news for the crew
CB7 Score: 2/4 - Damn you Zack.
ZFS | Posted 9/17/2008 11:35:53 PM | message detail | #059
don't doubt the zack

let's mosey
Dilated Chemist | Posted 9/17/2008 11:36:02 PM | message detail | #060
^5 HM.

[Multiple Scorgasms]
Score: 0/0 Today's Pick: Zack Fair > Wario
appestats | Posted 9/17/2008 11:48:41 PM | message detail | #061
Lopen | Posted 9/17/2008 11:50:37 PM | message detail | #062
Poor Cecil :( If the damn tubball was gonna get humiliated he should've taken it to the extreme and jobbed to both of em.
Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
ExquisiteSamurai | Posted 9/17/2008 11:52:38 PM | message detail | #063
aww yeah .. Go HM

Awaiting Final Fantasy XIII
GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/18/2008 12:04:28 AM | message detail | #064
I'm a bastard from a basket
FantasyFreak999 | Posted 9/18/2008 7:07:34 AM | message detail | #065
"Run, run, or you'll be well done!"
~Kefka, Final Fantasy 6~
Tatl | Posted 9/18/2008 8:39:18 AM | message detail | #066
I'm calling the R2 Cloud vs Midna vs Mewtwo vs Pac-Man/Ness/Travis match.

Unless I signed up for one already... Can't remember...o_O
Smash Brawl Code: 5370-0384-1628 -- Tag: Lupe
Main: Lucas --- Secondaries: Pikachu, Luigi, R.O.B., and Ivysaur --- Recent Interest: Sheik...NINJA POWER!
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/18/2008 9:47:39 AM | message detail | #067
LOL Analysis Crew

Go go HM!

By the way, Moltar, did you get my guest analysis for Liquid/Luigi/Roxas/Sho yet?
Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
Master Moltar | Posted 9/18/2008 9:51:17 AM | message detail | #068
I did
Moltar Status: =D
Cecil/Jade/Wario/Zack - Bracket: Wario > Zack - Vote: Wario (0/0)
Djungelurban | Posted 9/18/2008 10:34:58 AM | message detail | #069
B.B. Hood for CB -09
The apples were too strong for him.
Ngamer64 | Posted 9/18/2008 7:51:23 PM | message detail | #070
I heard that today's stunning result got yo so fired up that he's going to return to do Consistency Rankings!

Hot Content: |
He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
hochimnih157 | Posted 9/18/2008 8:31:59 PM | message detail | #071
This crew is a cesspool of frauds. I can't believe nearly everyone thought Wario would win.
vcharon | Posted 9/18/2008 8:37:04 PM | message detail | #072
Just stopping by to say:

Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/18/2008 8:38:01 PM | message detail | #073
Wow. Almost all of the crew thought Wario would win?

Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
luke | Posted 9/18/2008 8:46:42 PM | message detail | #074
I was wondering where the fail comments were. I demand some more tomorrow.
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/18/2008 8:47:27 PM | message detail | #075
It'd be hard to have failure tomorrow unless a lot of people take Link > Zidane or Shadow blows it!
Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
vcharon | Posted 9/18/2008 8:53:59 PM | message detail | #076
There isn't nearly enough posting of "fail" in here. I'm gonna have to give one more, the epic bold, all caps version. It's for balance and all, you know.


DpObliVion | Posted 9/18/2008 8:58:50 PM | message detail | #077
Good thing mine's unofficial, or else I'd be making the Crew look even more fail!

Character Battle VII *PRINTABLE BRACKET* - Look in my profile for links. GO SONIC
Master Moltar | Posted 9/18/2008 9:03:04 PM | message detail | #078
Division 1: Round 1 - Match 2 – Link vs. Luke von Fabre vs. Shadow the Hedgehog vs. Zidane Tribal

Moltar’s Analysis

Game/Series Known From: The Legend of Zelda
2007 Results: 1st Place in Round 1 vs. Bidoof, Miles Edgeworth and Agent J
1st Place in Round 2 vs. Vincent, Bidoof and Zelda
1st Place in Round 3 vs. Vincent, Crono and Zero
1st Place in Round 4 vs. Sephiroth, Mario and Vincent
1st Place in Round 5 vs. Cloud, Samus and Sephiorth
2nd Place in Round 6 vs. L-Block, Cloud and Snake

Brawl Character #2, Had his victory stolen by a Tetris Piece

Game/Series Known From: Tales of the Abyss
2007 Results: N/A

Another Tales character, another epic loss

Game/Series Known From: Sonic
2007 Results: 2nd Place in Round 1 vs. Auron, Pyramid Head and Chris Redfield
4th Place in Round 2 vs. Auron, Ryu and Bowser

He’s back and this time, it’s Shadow’s year.

Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy IX
2007 Results: 4th Place in Round 1 vs. Liquid Snake, Alucard and Ness

Another Final Fantasy hero, that’s 3 in 2 matches!

Well, Link easily takes first place, but the real question is who takes second.

Luke is a Tales character, so that automatically means he has no chance of advancing. Then there’s Zidane, who we saw get wrecked by Crono in 2005, and then lost to Alucard, Liquid and Ness last year. Yeah, as you can already see, Zidane isn’t that strong, and this format doesn’t really help him.

Still, Shadow didn’t look good at all last year. In fact, Sonic team in general looked weaker than usual. This may be because while Sonic characters are well-known, they aren’t exactly favorites with hardcore fanbases. With Link here, that only makes things harder for Shadow since it isn’t crazy to think that the Nintendo fanbase would also support Sonic characters.

Zidane has a chance to take second if the Square fans get behind him, but I think he’s just too weak. Link will suck up a ton of votes, and Luke will get the Tales vote (from all 4 fans), so it’s up to Shadow and Zidane to split the rest. Will Shadow advance because of his midcard strength, or will Zidane’s more hardcore supporters get him through? I’m banking on Shadow and it’s completely definitely not out of bias nope no way sir not at all.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Link > Shadow

Moltar’s Prediction is: Link: 64% - Shadow: 17% - Zidane: 15% - Luke: 4%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

aw yeah how about that Zack domination

Normally, this would be a pretty boring match, but after Zack wrecked Wario yesterday this will be worth keeping an eye on, if only to see how well Shadow does. With Zack looking like he'll cruise his way out of the division -- and not necessarily on the back of his opponents' weaknesses either -- Shadow's got to put up some good numbers to get some confidence back. If he ends up going even with Zidane, or only able to get in the mid-teens he won't be lookin' so good.

I'm thinkin' he'll put up the numbers he's expected to, though, right around the 16 - 18% area. I don't see him going above and beyond his expectations here, but I don't think he needs to worry about Zidane pullin' off an upset either, who's got a decent shot at doing it. If Link sucks up enough percentage that it comes down to the hardcore fanbases, Zidane's is likely to be bigger than Shadow's. It'll be even worse if Link manages some minor SFF here, too, since there isn't going to be that big of a gap to begin with.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/18/2008 9:03:39 PM | message detail | #079
Still, losing to Zidane would be pretty bad, even for Shadow. He didn't look that hot last year, but he was still more impressive than Zidane, who was a good ways behind Alucard, Liquid, and Ness. You never know with Sonic characters, though. Rikku was less than point away from beating Knuckles with Vaan in the poll. They just don't do well in this format. You could kinda sorta maybe make an argument that LUKE FON FABRE could hurt Zidane a little bit with the RPG vote, but uh let's not.

damn you tales characters why do you get nominated come on luke get under 2%

(p.s. -- come on shadow underperformance make way for zack)

Prediction: Link - 64% ; Shadow - 16% ; Zidane - 14% ; Luke - 4%
Bracket: Link > Shadow
Vote: Zidane

Yoblazer’s Analysis

This may be the zaniest bracket ever, but even 4-way matches are much easier to analyze when you throw a juggernaut in the mix, and today, we have the crème de la crème of juggernauts. Link is back, Link is tattered, Link is pissed off, and Link is out for vengeance following only his second contest loss of all time. The Zelda protagonist and GameFAQs contest ace is going to maul his three helpless foes, the scrappiest of which will have to make his way into Round 2 by best nibbling on Link's table crumbs.

Over the past month, Luke fon Fabre has given me precious minutes of entertainment as I attempted to pronounce his name in all sorts of great ways. Unfortunately, I don't think this will translate well into a contest setting, so I can't see him being a threat. A shame, since I'll probably forget about the debonair Mr. fon Fabre as soon as we close the book on this match.

Link's other two opponents are a bit more evenly matched (read: bit), but one of them is still considered the huge favorite. I've heard some whispers of a Zidane Tribal upset, people theorizing that Zidane might sneak his girlie little self through because he's more resistant to Link's beastly SFF than Shadow the Hedgehog. While this may be true, I can't imagine minor SFF to change the outcome of this match when the intrinsic strength gap is so significant. Simply put, Shadow is much stronger than Zidane. The Sonic proxy may have had a poor 2007, but Zidane was manhandled against Alucard, Liquid Snake, and Ness. Shadow, for all his shortcomings, would have fared much better had the two been switched. Link may ding him up a bit more, but it shouldn't make a difference.

And the march to redemption begins, a trail of hedgehog intestines and broken girl-men left in its wake.

Link - 68%
Shadow the Hedgehog - 16%
Zidane Tribal - 12%
Luke fon Fabre - 4%

Lopen’s Analysis

This one seems obvious at a glance... and really, I'm not going to argue this time. Sure, Shadow looked like crap last year, but uhh... it's friggin Zidane. I love the guy, but he looks like crap every year. Zidane has a small chance to win with how crappy Shadow looked last year, admittedly... and some people say that Shadow might be SFFed by Link here. I personally don't buy it... I'd sooner buy Shadow being "badass SFFed" by Auron last year and tearing some heads off this year... what was I talking about?

And apparently Jade Curtiss comes back for another beating after being eliminated just one match prior. Gotta appreciate the guts on that kid-- oh.

Oh. That's Jade Curtiss mark 2, sent from the future... stronger, faster, and disgruntled due to being the only son of a noble family in Tales of the Abyss, or so the information on the bracket entry thing tells me. (disgruntledness added by me, because he's gonna be so when he sees his percent)

Yeap. Go Jade go.

Lopen's Prediction:
Link - 62.05%
Shadow the Hedgehog - 18.37%
Zidane - 14.13%
Luke - 5.45%
Master Moltar | Posted 9/18/2008 9:04:25 PM | message detail | #080
Transience’s Analysis

Link. Shadow.

I'd like to say this is completely obvious, but the truth is, it isn't. Shadow looked absolutely terrible last year in this format, losing updates overnight to Pyramid Head. he got absolutely smashed by good competition, which I guess is through no fault of his own, but what happens when he faces Link?

on the other hand, we've got the perenially screwed Zidane, a guy who just feels left behind and never really manages to do anything. he came in a clear fourth place last year in that Liquid Snake/Alucard match, but didn't exactly do awful. one thing you can say about FF9 is that it has a core fanbase -- Zidane isn't going to crumble under the weight of Link like Shadow might. you can talk yourself into a Zidane pick pretty easily: Link's gonna be getting a good 60% of this vote, if not more. Zidane can probably manage 12-15%. what's not to like about rolling the dice on a huge upset?

as much as I'd like to pick my boy Zidane, I just can't. I look at Luke there and say that he's going to pull some votes from Zidane. I think about how Shadow went even with Tidus in 2004, and how FF10 is so much more popular than FF9 that it isn't funny. and I think about how unproven the idea of Link hurting Shadow more than Zidane is. Zidane could win this and really throw a wrench into the wonderfully ugly Division 1, but it's an upset and one that could potentially hurt you for four rounds if you're wrong. it's just too risky for me.

oh god furry match
tails and hedgehogs and weird ears
get me outta here

transience's prediction: Link - 61.47%, Shadow the Hedgehog - 19.32%, Zidane Tribal - 14.66%, Luke fon Fabre - 4.55%

Ngamer’s Analysis

Ouch, Crew season is only just underway and already we've made a mistake! Well, I think our readers had better get used to it- even assuming the joke characters don't rise up and sting us, this is an extremely tricky bracket that I think will be full of surprises right down to the wire.

Moltar isn't breathing down my neck tonight, so I'm going to deliver a true treat (and one that I didn't really get to do last night despite my promise): my full Oracle thought process! We begin with

Last Known Values
Link - 59.90% (2007)
Luke - Unknown
Shadow - 25.05% (2007)
Zidane - 15.71% (2007)

This is Luke's first rodeo, but since he's Tales and super niche and we've already seen Jade drop the ball with one of the worst showings in history, I'm going to just go ahead and assign him Jade's awful value from last year of 5.44. Now Link's value in '07 ended up being a guesstimate due to L-Block weirdness, but oh well, we know he's well over 50 and will be decimating this crowd regardless, so let's just leave it.

Shadow's value seems a touch high... but now that I look at it, he DID best Pyramid Head by over 10%, so I guess that's about right for him in R1. However he totally collapsed once the tougher competition arrived in R2, and Link's a one man tough competition group, so when you add in the Nintendo/Sonic Team crossover factor I don't see Shadow performing too far above the fodder line here. Zidane's 16 is based off that really disappointing performance he had against Alucard/Lake/Ness. I guess you can forgive part of that since he was against two other PSX characters, but honestly, I think that was a pretty good indication that the guy is high end fodder, in this or any other format. Still though I'll give him a slight boost because Square always brings its A game against big Nintendo.

So we take that all into consideration, adjust the values accordingly, throw it into the pot and after a few minutes of stirring we see...

Link - 61.39%
Shadow the Hedgehog - 19.05%
Zidane Tribal - 14.13%
Luke fon Fabre - 5.44%

Lookin' good!

Ngamer Says: Link > Shadow
Master Moltar | Posted 9/18/2008 9:05:19 PM | message detail | #081
Guest’s Analysis - KamikazePotato

Now before I continue, let me say that Zidane has a 30% chance AT BEST to win this. It's a longshot that might pay off but probably won't.

With that said, I will now prove to you, irrevocably, irreversably, and irredeemably how Zidane is going to curbstomp Shadow and dance on his corpse.

For this kind of match, I find it helps to visualize the percentages. Link gets...62%. I would give him 60% based off of last year, and Brawl should put him over the edge.

Luke...let me just say that Jade : Kratos Aurion, Luke: Lloyd. I've played both the games and know both fanbases, and those are the exact parallels. Yeah. He gets 6% here and will be lucky if he doesn't get less.

That leaves 32% left for Shadow and Zidane to try and grab. Zidane would need to get 17% to Shadow's 15%; it seems unlikely, right? Oh how not right you are!

Let's take a look at Link. He's the undisputed King of SFF, and has the tendency to kick anyone even remotely related to him in the face. Zidane has absolutely no connection to Link, and is safe.

Shadow? He's not going to be so lucky. First of all, Sonic characters have always been sorta kinda Nintendo, and Shadow is more Nintendo than any Sonic character there is. Most of his popularity comes from Sonic Adventure 2 Battle, a Gamecube game.

No,none of his other games will matter much. If anything they're why Shadow is in a position to lose this; Shadow the Hedgehog, Sonic 2006 anyone? Talk about backlash.

Anyway, Shadow is going to get SFFd. It won't be by a lot, but in a close match...

And by now you're asking, why won't Zidane crumple? Why is it a close match? He may not be SFFd, but Shadow is still stronger than him.

By the stats, yes, but I believe Zidane is stronger than the stats show, if only by a little. In 2005 he was stuck with Crono, and while the SFF there was minimal, there was still some.

Last year he was the odd man out in his match with two other already stronger PS1 characters; no bracket support, and was the weakest character, and last year showed how the 4th character in a match does worse than he should.

And to top it off, Zidane has a much more dedicated fanbase than Shadow. Small, but dedicated. Shadow is casual bait, and with Link in the poll...

One last thing: people may not be able to see Zidane build a good enough lead to weather the Sonic day vote. The thing is, he doesn't have to. With Link SFFing Shadow, his day vote will be hurt; he'll still win it, but there won't be any Sonic/Crono-esque comebacks in this match.

With all this put together...Zidane ekes out a win. Probably. Hopefully. Please. Anyone but Shadow.

KP's Bracket: Link>Zidane
KP's Pick: Link>Zidane
KP's Vote: Zidane

Link 62%
Luke fon Fobre: 5%
Shadow the Hedgehog: 15.8%
Zidane Tribal: 16.2%

Crew Consensus: Link > Shadow, though SOMEONE is putting some faith in Zidane.
GTM | Posted 9/18/2008 9:06:48 PM | message detail | #082

I will enjoy this
Togepi! Togepi!
DpObliVion | Posted 9/18/2008 9:12:43 PM | message detail | #083
DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

Off to a bad start again....oh well. Biggest question here is if Luke does better or worse than Jade is doing today. With Link in the match today, it's quite possible. A less popular Tales Of character, against a much stronger Nintendo character, Zidane with the FF vote, plus a fairly popular Sega vote.

Other question of course is who takes second behind Link. Shadow is an interesting character to figure out in these contests, but I'll give him the nod as I really don't think Zidane will do a good job pulling in the FF vote.

Dp's bracket says: Link > Shadow

Dp's prediction is: Link > Shadow

Link - 56%
Shadow - 21.50%
Zidane - 18%
Luke - 4.50%

Seems I'm going low on Link, I guess I got a bit more faith in Shadow and Zidane.

Character Battle VII *PRINTABLE BRACKET* - Look in my profile for links. GO SONIC
Ngamer64 | Posted 9/18/2008 9:15:26 PM | message detail | #084
I like the way this Ngamer guy thinks.

Hot Content: |
He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/18/2008 9:21:30 PM | message detail | #085
I will be victorious

Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
DpObliVion | Posted 9/18/2008 9:32:16 PM | message detail | #086
Whoo, having doubts again.

As I was doing my percentages, I originally put Link at 53%, then I checked your guys' percentages and saw them quite a bit higher, so I figured I had to add at least a few to Link. But as I decided where to take them from, I found it harder to take from Zidane than Shadow. It's just hard to imagine even a relatively weak FF vote dropping so low.

Although I suppose anything going low with Link in the match shouldn't be a surprise. I'll just cling to the fact that Zidane is made completely of fail.

Character Battle VII *PRINTABLE BRACKET* - Look in my profile for links. GO SONIC
luke | Posted 9/18/2008 9:37:54 PM | message detail | #087
Zidane got like 19% in that Alucard pack last year. Shadow's probably around Alucard level and Link's obviously a beast. Zidane will need a very core fanbase to pull something off here.
paraboxx | Posted 9/18/2008 9:53:40 PM | message detail | #088
It's just hard to imagine even a relatively weak FF vote dropping so low.

Uh, isn't that happening right now?
Lopen | Posted 9/18/2008 10:07:49 PM | message detail | #089
Dammit, Moltar, I put Jade's name there on purpose! Whaddayamean it'll "confuse our readers!"
Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Master Moltar | Posted 9/18/2008 10:41:43 PM | message detail | #090
ooooh, i thought it was a typo!
Moltar Status: =D
Cecil/Jade/Wario/Zack - Bracket: Wario > Zack - Vote: Wario (0/0)
satai_delenn | Posted 9/18/2008 10:44:08 PM | message detail | #091
Man, I'd forgotten what the final percentages were for Alucard and Liquid in that match last year. That was so cool.

...what do you mean that's not Zidane-related? >_>
Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE!
vcharon | Posted 9/18/2008 11:40:11 PM | message detail | #092
Hey guys
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/18/2008 11:40:58 PM | message detail | #093
Well then

Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
luke | Posted 9/18/2008 11:43:06 PM | message detail | #094
haha aw yeah

I am happy to look bad for this
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/18/2008 11:44:55 PM | message detail | #095
Aww yeah
Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/18/2008 11:46:59 PM | message detail | #096
Great start guys Chaos Control for us huh
Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Master Moltar | Posted 9/18/2008 11:48:38 PM | message detail | #097
i knew i should not have canceled the "How to Analyze Contests Correctly" annual Crew seminar

sorry folks
Moltar Status: =D
Link/Luke/Shadow/Zidane - Bracket: Link > Shadow - Vote: Shadow (2/4)
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/18/2008 11:49:50 PM | message detail | #098
SNES Reviews -
"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
Lopen | Posted 9/18/2008 11:52:41 PM | message detail | #099
I'm just letting the other gurus get ahead so I can stage my yearly epic comeback, what's your excuse? *looks to other crew members*
Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
ZFS | Posted 9/18/2008 11:54:59 PM | message detail | #100
hey i got yesterday's match right i'm due for a miss

let's mosey