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Character Battle VII Contest Analysis Crew

Big Bob | Posted 9/24/2008 9:08:40 PM | message detail | #351
More like MMX > Tom Nook
RaeSaraneth | Posted 9/24/2008 10:51:56 PM | message detail | #352
Man, I put Lloyd on my bracket... -_-
I'm going to go play spore and assume I'll only be getting points for MMX tomorrow, hah.
DpObliVion | Posted 9/24/2008 10:54:21 PM | message detail | #353
DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:

Could it be that I could have a perfect Division 2 after a completely imperfect Division 1? Well, let's not get ahead of ourselves here, after all, it's Mudkip I'm putting my faith in....

But Mudkip does have the serious Pokemon vote and the joke vote on his side. And his opponents are Lloyd Irving, and I can never expect a Tales Of character to advance, and Tom Nook, who shouldn't stand a chance anyway, but especially not against the Nintendo/joke vote of Mudkip and Nintendo-kinda N9er-kinda Mega Man X.

Mudkip should take this relatively easily. The bigger question may be, how much of the vote can Mega Man X take in his debut? With concerns over Mario with his performance today, Mega Man X has a good chance to instill fear in all those who picked Mario to advance over MMX in the quarterfinals. And I shall be victorious....

Dp's bracket says: Mega Man X > Mudkip

Dp's prediction is: Mega Man X > Mudkip

Mega Man X - 49%
Mudkip - 23%
Lloyd - 16%
Tom Nook - 12%

(I originally had MMX at 52%, but I decided that was a bit too overboard....I'll put this note here though in case I was right so I can still gloat if it does happen.)

Character Battle VII *PRINTABLE BRACKET* - Look in my profile for links. GO SONIC
Master Moltar | Posted 9/24/2008 11:00:17 PM | message detail | #354
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Master Moltar | Posted 9/25/2008 9:38:38 AM | message detail | #355
Fei Fong Wong.............14.05% 18695
Knuckles the Echidna...20.9% 27794
Mario..............................40.47% 53836
Zelda..............................24.58% 32691
TOTAL VOTES..........................133016

What Happened - Pretty much a repeat of Mega Man/Yoshi/Knuckles/KOS-MOS last year. Zelda resisted SFF well enough to not get beat by Knuckles.

Why it Happened - Mario's performance seems kind of bad, but then again he wasn't able to SFF Zelda well enough to dominate. Knuckles did about as expected, and Zelda held up fairly well even with Mario in the poll. Fei either overperformed because of being with 2 Nintendo characters and 1 Nintendo-supported character or he's a decent low-midcarder.

What Will Happen - This match alone doesn't say too much, except that Zelda may hold up better in Round 2 than originally thought, and Mario may be in trouble.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay everyone (except Molty and HM)

Guest (KP, Leon, Ed, Gadd) - 4
HM - 3
Yoblazer - 3
Lopen - 3
Tran - 3
Ngamer - 3
Moltar - 2

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Ngamer gets the point for Mario and Fei, Lopen gets the point for Zelda, and Yo gets the point for Knux.

Yoblazer - 6
Ngamer - 5
Lopen - 5
HM - 5
Tran - 4
Guest (War, KP (2)) - 3
Moltar - 1
Moltar Status: augh
Lloyd/Mudkip/Tom/MMX - Bracket: MMX > Mudkip - Vote: Lloyd (18/28)
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/25/2008 9:42:05 AM | message detail | #356
Argh, Mudkip.
Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
Master Moltar | Posted 9/25/2008 9:52:22 PM | message detail | #357
Division 3: Round 1 - Match 9 – Crash Bandicoot vs. Nightmare vs. Raz vs. Samus Aran

Moltar’s Analysis

Game/Series Known From: Crash Bandicoot
2007 Results: 4th Place in Round 1 vs. Magus, Phoenix and Bomberman

Because some people somehow still remember him.

Game/Series Known From: Soul Calibur
2007 Results: 2nd Place in Round 1 vs. Solid Snake, Vyse and Rayman
4th Place in Round 2 vs. Solid Snake, Riku and Ryu H.

I love Nightmare and even I didn’t remember him doing anything in last year’s contest.

Game/Series Known From: Psychonauts
2007 Results: N/A

The group’s token new character.

Game/Series Known From: Metroid
2007 Results: 1st Place in Round 1 vs. Frog, Axel and Kerrigan
1st Place in Round 2 vs. Scorpion, Frog and Midna
1st Place in Round 3 vs. Mega Man, Yoshi and Scorpion
2nd Place in Round 4 vs. Cloud, Mega Man and Ryu
3rd Place in Round 5 vs. Link, Cloud and Sephiroth

Brawl Character #9, and Samus > Sephiroth comes true in one form at least

This group is just as forgettable as Nightmare’s pack last year. There’s a Noble Nine character, Nightmare, and two other characters no one cares about. One, like Vyse, has a small chance of advancing, and his name is Crash. The other, like Rayman, has zero chance of advancing, and that’s Raz.

Samus takes the easy first here, and Nightmare has almost no chance of losing second. Oh, and Nightmare also has the very recent Soul Calibur 4 on his side. Nothing more to see here, folks.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Samus > Nightmare

Moltar’s Prediction is: Samus: 52% - Nightmare: 24% - Crash: 16% - Raz: 8%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

This is probably one of the easier matches to predict. We know that Samus is an easy first place here, and I don't even know what a "Raz" is, so second place is either Nightmare or Crash, two characters we got to see last year. Crash did pretty well last year in a very tight fourth place against Bomberman and Phoenix Wright. Almost admirable enough to possibly consider taking Crash for second...

Until you see what Nightmare did, gaining about a percentage point more than Crash (21% to 22%) with Solid Snake in the poll. Although it's probably a weak argument, you could make one for Nightmare that someone like Snake could have hurt him, but it's not necessary here. That's clearly the more impressive performance of the two. Combine that with the fact that Soul Calibur IV just recently released and this one is a no-brainer in favor of Nightmare. He should have an easy second here.

As far as Samus is concerned, it's a matter of whether or not she'll beat her first round performance last year - 52%. Thinkin' she doesn't.

Prediction: Samus - 50% ; Nightmare - 25% ; Crash - 17% ; Raz - 8%
Bracket: Samus > Nightmare
Vote: Samus

Yoblazer’s Analysis

They can't all be gems, folks. Nine days in, and we have reached what is unquestionably our most boring poll yet. While tonight's actual result isn't much more predictable than yesterday's, it has absolutely zero points of interest. There is no joke character to add a pinch of unpredictability and no new power player who we must try to gauge. Yes, this match between Crash Bandicoot, Nightmare (Soul Calibur), Raz (Psychonauts), and Samus Aran (Metroid), is essentially a 24-hour break to recharge our batteries.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/25/2008 9:52:46 PM | message detail | #358
Like I said, there's no new power player here, but there is Samus. Same old Samus and her same old yearly routine of wiping people out. Since 2004, the unchallenged queen of gamedom has made a habit of really killing weak and average opponents, and I have no reason to believe today will be any different. While this may be boring for some people, I'll personally enjoy watching one of my favorite characters in gaming tear these other three losers a new one.

Samus's victory is clearly established, and the battle for second place is hardly any more in doubt. Crash Bandicoot, aged star of the series that bears his name, actually did pretty well last year. He managed to stay within a stone's throw of Bomberman and Phoenix Wright, a better effort than most expected of him. However, his opponent tonight, Nightmare from the Soul Calibur series (Hello, Nightmare. Your picture makes you look like a weird blob yet again, I see. Delightful. Yes, quite.), managed to do better against much more respectable competition. I expect Nightmare to finish with a similar percentage to what he got in the first round last year (his competition seems pretty equal in strength, all things considered). Our fourth guy, Raz, has no hope for anything but a disaster. Poor little guy, but hell, I'm not gonna feel sorry for him if he's foolish enough to step in The Queen's territory.

In the reaches of space... below the surface of planet Zebes, Samus Aran faced the space pirates. She destroyed their operation, wiped out the parasites called Metroids, and defeated Mother brain. But the pirates were far from finished...

Crash Bandicoot - 14%
Nightmare - 23%
Raz - 7%
Samus Aran - 56%

The Lopen (8:55:00 PM): Lopen’s Analysis

Now doing this straight from an IM window, that's how boring this match is to me. We've got this raspberry dude from a game called Psychonauts (never relevant), PS Platformer Character #1 (relevant 10 years ago), and Nightmare (somewhat relevant).

PS Platformer Character #1 might've had a chance were this match held like... a decade ago, but now he's painfully irrelevant. Nightmare proved that he's decent last year... and since last year he's had Soul Calibur 4 and Soul Calibur Legends. It might be kinda interesting to see how well he does... maybe he can reach the level to overtake Frog/KOS-MOS next round. Course, there's Bacondorf in the way so that's not even that cool.

I guess we can watch for some of that juicy Nintendo backlash. Maybe Samus underperforms... and by underperforms I mean get below 55%. Whoo what a load of crap.

The Lopen (8:55:03 PM): Lopen's Prediction:
Samus - 55.12%
Nightmare - 23.18%
PS Platformer Character #1 (the original!) - 14.45%
Raspberry - 7.25%

Transience’s Analysis

after a disasterrific division 1, the crew goes perfect for division 2. let's keep this up!

tomorrow's match is the single least talked about match of the contest. I had to look to even see who the fourth guy was. almost everyone has Samus > Nightmare here, and for good reason - Nightmare was decent last year, scoring 22% on a match featuring a top 5 character in Solid Snake. in comparison, Crash got the same thing against Phoenix Wright, Bomberman and Magus. Nightmare probably wins that, and he got Soul Calibur IV this year. (or Soulcalibur IV -- what's up with this name?)

Crash has a shot here, but it's not a great one. when one character eats up a ton of votes as Samus is going to do, anything can happen if there's not a big gap between characters, and Nightmare's not miles ahead of Crash or anything. I feel that having a popular icon like Samus probably wrecks Crash's main strength, though - being recognizable. Nightmare's modern, he's got fans, and he's unique. looks like a logical, straightforward pick to me.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/25/2008 9:53:22 PM | message detail | #359
what the heck is Raz
seven percent, here we come!
this match is boring

transience's prediction: Samus with 53.44%, Nightmare with 22.99%, Crash with 16.57%, Raz with 7.00%

Ngamer’s Analysis

...dang it all, Mudkip! IMO today's result gives us one answer (the kipper is fueled by "the kiddies", not 4chan, aside from a couple hundred votes in the first half hour) and leaves us with one question (what in the crap is wrong with Lucario? seriously, how can you have D/P, AND Brawl, and still be this far back of 'kip?). Certainly appears as though Zelda is going to be in for some trouble next round; but might even MMX be at risk as well? I shudder to consider it! But anyways, getting back to the match at hand...

This is, unfortunately, one of the least interesting matches of R1. Psychonaughts may be great, but that still doesn't make Raz one of the more intruiging newcomers of the season, and we've already got a pretty decent bead on Crash and Nightmare's strength from last year. I guess something to watch for might be that this is Nintendo's first true chance to shine so far this season- sure Link and Mario have already come through, but there were serious LFF questions in those matches making it impossible to say if they underperformed. Samus is top tier for the company and shouldn't be facing anyone who can hurt her here, so a strong showing could go a long ways toward reasuring those currently fearing an '08 Nintendo drop.

Let's start by seeing where these characters would have dropped from, shall we?

Last Known Values
Samus - 41.23%
Nightmare - 24.35%
Crash - 16.07%
Raz - new

Samus was one of the top performers of last season, though no one remembers it because her path was so predictable. She never showed any signs of weakness (aside from that one sprite match with MM, but come on, she looked like a toilet) and actually beat out Sephiroth pretty handily in her final match. With no other Nintendo option to limit her appeal here, I'm expecting a big time performance from the bracket's top female.

Nightmare's a bit of an oddball. He held up impressively well against Snake in R1, but then fell off the face of the earth when Ryu H and Riku were introduced to the equation the next time around. He must be one of those guys with enough recognizability to draw in the apathy votes, but who few people actually like enough to support when given other options. Between that and SC4's release still being pretty fresh in people's minds, I'd except him to look more like his R1 self tomorrow.

Crash actually looked fairly decent in his last match, but any semblance of strength people might be gleaning from that result is a mirage, as far as I'm concerned. Yes, he tore it up with the after-school vote, but that was purely a product of Bomberman, Phoenix Wright, and Magus being some of the worst ASV candidates these Contests has ever produced. I'd be shocked if this washed up Bandicoot was able to make similar noise against decent options like Samus and Nightmare. And as for Raz, well... sorry to those who love the game, but we've seen these kind of super-niche characters in action before, and they're almost always "worth" about 10 on BL- not seeing any reason for Raz to be an exception to that rule.

With those numbers in the pot, slightly tweaked, and stirred to perfection, we get...

Samus Aran - 52.93%
Nightmare - 23.49%
Crash Bandicoot - 13.99%
Raz - 9.59%


Ngamer Says: Samus > Nightmare
Master Moltar | Posted 9/25/2008 9:53:58 PM | message detail | #360
Guest’s Analysis - DpOblivion

It's time for a return to glory for the greatest video game character in history! It's time for CRASH BANDICOOT! *does the Crash dance*

Yes, I am Board 8's Official Biggest Crash Bandicoot Fanboy. But all the bias in the world cannot cloud my judgment here. While Samus probably gets over 50% with ease, it's gonna be Nightmare in a distant but fairly easy second. While Soul Calibur isn't a series to produce an upset specialist, it's good enough to get the job done against the fodder (not that I'm calling Crash fodder, of course).

Fact is, Raz should be extreme fodder (Psychonauts, what?) and everyone always ignores the nostalgia of the best character of two generations ago (you just gotta forget he even existed in the last generation). Especially with Samus eating of the casual vote that Crash desperately needs, Nightmare is going to ride the continued success of Soul Calibur into the second round.

Poor Crash.... :*(

Dp's bracket says: Samus > Nightmare

Dp's prediction is: Samus > Nightmare

Samus - 54%
Nightmare - 22%
Crash Bandicoot - 16%
Raz - 8%

Crew Consensus: smaus > nitemare
DpObliVion | Posted 9/25/2008 9:58:37 PM | message detail | #361
There’s a Noble Nine character, Nightmare, and two other characters no one cares about.



Vote for **CRASH BANDICOOT** - Booyah, Grandma. Booyah.
trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2008 9:58:44 PM | message detail | #362
yeah nobody cares today bring on Frog
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/25/2008 9:59:14 PM | message detail | #363
The fact that no one on the analysis crew has played Psychonauts is saddening.

I mean, Raspberry?

Lopen | Posted 9/25/2008 10:08:48 PM | message detail | #364
Whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa... whoa. You're telling me his name wasn't raspberry. Whoa.

Surprised the crew has Samus so low but didn't really talk about Nintendo backlash in their write-ups. This four pack is way weaker than her four pack from last year's round one. Figured mine would be lower than most. I'll assume this was just an oversight.

... and man I swear I didn't know Crash fans existed. What the hell, Dp. ... what?
Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/25/2008 10:11:25 PM | message detail | #365
Simply shocking, I know.

Really though, making fun of Raz? Not cool, man. I don't make fun of Chief. Except when it's funny. Or when I feel like it.

Lopen | Posted 9/25/2008 10:25:31 PM | message detail | #366
If you can't break 10%, and I don't have some strange fanboyish love for your game, I'm going to mock the hell out of you. Sorry. That's just how I roll.

Hell, Crash will break 10% and he got mocked just as much. Dp should be the defensive one here.
Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
DpObliVion | Posted 9/25/2008 10:27:30 PM | message detail | #367
I was already too offended by Moltar's analysis to be offended by yours.

Vote for **CRASH BANDICOOT** - Booyah, Grandma. Booyah.
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/25/2008 10:27:48 PM | message detail | #368
I'm not sure if you realize I'm being sarcastic in my posts.

(although Raz would still curbstomp Chief any day of the week book ir)

Lopen | Posted 9/25/2008 10:31:42 PM | message detail | #369
Dammit. Moltar goes first and steals all the heat I'm trying to draw from fans of these weak characters...!

(No, I'll be honest, couldn't really tell that you were being sarcastic. 'whoops')

(Raspberry sux)
Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Master Moltar | Posted 9/25/2008 10:31:49 PM | message detail | #370
Hey, I loved CTR, but that was years ago. Couldn't care less for Crash now.

Eh, as much as I would love for Samus to tear this group apart, I'm going to stay conservative concerning Nintendo until they actually start trying.
Moltar Status: augh
Crash/Nightmare/Raz/Samus - Bracket: Samus > Nightmare - Vote: Samus (22/32)
trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2008 10:33:07 PM | message detail | #371
still don't see why people are so down on Nintendo. it's like they need to blow us away for the fourth year in a row in order to meet expectations or something. they've been about as good as they were last year.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/25/2008 10:34:07 PM | message detail | #372
it's like they need to blow us away for the fourth year in a row in order to meet expectations or something

^ see this

c'mon samus redeem your brethen
Moltar Status: augh
Crash/Nightmare/Raz/Samus - Bracket: Samus > Nightmare - Vote: Samus (22/32)
DpObliVion | Posted 9/25/2008 10:35:06 PM | message detail | #373
Out with the old, in with the new, I suppose.

I've always been one to hang onto my nostalgia.

Vote for **CRASH BANDICOOT** - Booyah, Grandma. Booyah.
DpObliVion | Posted 9/25/2008 10:35:31 PM | message detail | #374
(and of course, I'm not really offended, just joking around)

Vote for **CRASH BANDICOOT** - Booyah, Grandma. Booyah.
transience | Posted 9/26/2008 4:30:08 AM | message detail | #375
Crash is trying to make a match of this, but that brutal opening hour buried it. not a bad showing for Crash, though.
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
greatone10 | Posted 9/26/2008 4:38:21 AM | message detail | #376
Crash could make a match of this, but he'd need to star in SSB to get the neccessary day vote and SC would need to go 10 years without a game for Nightmare to suck that much during the day for it to happen.
Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896
Master Moltar | Posted 9/26/2008 3:30:38 PM | message detail | #377
Lloyd Irving.........16.58% 23137
Mudkip................30.26% 42219
Tom Nook............8.65% 12070
Mega Man X.........44.5% 62085
TOTAL VOTES...............139511

What Happened - MMX and Mudkip win as expected, though Mudkip beats out most expectations. MMX also failed to beat Luigi's numbers on the 'kip last year. Lloyd does about as expected and Tom flops hard.

Why it Happened - Mudkip's performance could be explained by 1) being in a weaker fourpack this time (Pit > Lloyd and Tingle > Tom) and 2) increased joke character support (oh god we're screwed). The latter would also explain why X is kind of low too. Don't get me wrong, X still looks to be strong, but he needed a better performance to look as strong as the original MM. Instead he ends up looking a bit stronger than Zero.

What Will Happen - Mario/Zelda/MMX/Mudkip...oh geez, Mudkip will most likely hold up very well, and there is the possibility of Mario and MMX hurting each other, or at least one hurting the other. Mudkip has a great shot at Round 3 if that's the case.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay everyone (except Lopen)

Guest - 5
HM - 4
Yoblazer - 4
Tran - 4
Ngamer - 4
Moltar - 3
Lopen - 3

Crew Accuracy Challenge - HM gets the point for MMX, Tran gets the point for Mudkip, Moltar and Yo get points for Lloyd, and Ngamer gets the point for Tom

Yoblazer - 7
Ngamer - 6
HM - 6
Tran - 5
Lopen - 5
Guest (War, KP (2)) - 3
Moltar - 2
Moltar Status: augh
Crash/Nightmare/Raz/Samus - Bracket: Samus > Nightmare - Vote: Samus (22/32)
Lopen | Posted 9/26/2008 3:36:18 PM | message detail | #378
Yeap, couldn't help it. I got the bracket points and my analysis still applies for next round, though. I do think the idea of a Mudkip floor is wrong and will be debunked in the next. Was just trying to get some Lloyd Irving hype going, haha.
Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
trannyscience | Posted 9/26/2008 3:45:20 PM | message detail | #379
this reminds me of L-Block and when people said it couldn't possible have a "floor", and then it turned into "oh, people will stop voting for it when it comes up against real competition".
Lopen | Posted 9/26/2008 10:05:51 PM | message detail | #380
Yeah, but tranny, the differences are:

1. I've seen fans of the Pokemon. Many of them.
2. Mudkip has realistic non-joke vote trends.
Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Master Moltar | Posted 9/26/2008 10:20:17 PM | message detail | #381
Division 3: Round 1 - Match 10 – Frog vs. Ganondorf vs. KOS-MOS vs. Neku Sakuraba

Moltar’s Analysis

Game/Series Known From: Chrono Trigger
2007 Results: 2nd Place in Round 1 vs. Samus, Axel and Kerrigan
3rd Place in Round 2 vs. Samus, Scorpion and Midna

Remember when Frog used to be a threat? Those were the days…

Game/Series Known From: Legend of Zelda
2007 Results: 1st Place in Round 1 vs. Vergil, Thrall and Ratchet
1st Place in Round 2 vs. Luigi, Mudkip and Vergil
3rd Place in Round 3 vs. Master Chief, Luigi and Yuna

Brawl Character #10, darn you bacondorf

Game/Series Known From: Xenosaga
2007 Results: 2nd Place in Round 1 vs. Mega Man, Arthas and Diablo
4th Place in Round 2 vs. Mega Man, Yoshi and Knuckles

This contest cutie makes her usual contest appearance

Game/Series Known From: The World Ends With You
2007 Results: N/A

And the second TWEWY character steps up to the plate

Last year, Ganondorf unfairly had the quarterfinals taken from him. He was dominant and unstoppable until something round happened in Round 3. Something so horrifying, so disfigured, so ugly, that it killed all the momentum he had built up until that point. Thanks to that...thing, Ganondorf was shot down by Luigi.

But that was the past, and it’s all behind us now. This year, Ganondorf will rise once again. On his first stop on the path of Ganon-ownage, he takes on Frog, KOS-MOS and Neku. None of these characters are in his league, so he’ll be taking first place easily.

A debate can be made between Frog and KOS-MOS for second though. We all know how Frog is. He looked awesome in 2004, but since then, he has failed to live up to that reputation. Like Magus, he’s pretty much become a shell of his former self in these contests. Don’t get me wrong though, both Frog and Magus still have some strength in them.

KOS-MOS has always been a decent competitor, though these four way matches aren’t doing much for her. Last year she didn’t look great, only escaping Round 1 thanks to Arthas and Diablo killing each other. This year, her biggest threat is a guy that needed everything to beat Axel, a third-string character on the KH totem pole. Ooh, this is tough.

Still, when in doubt, choose Frog. For some reason, he has a crazy and “powerful” fanbase who will “assist” him when he needs help in close matches. Frog has fallen far, and while I do think KOS-MOS will keep it close, I’m backing Frog because of his more dedicated fanbase.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Ganondorf > Frog

Moltar’s Prediction is: Ganondorf: 41% - Frog: 24% - KOS-MOS: 23% - Neku: 12%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Here's a weird one. Ganon should mop up, but what happens for second could be interesting. On one hand, Frog shouldn't have any problem taking second here, but given how Frog performs - he's one step away from Magus-levels of trust - when it's tight who knows. KOS-MOS had a solid performance last year, but only barely slipped by Arthas/Diablo, who both no doubt suffered from a split Blizzard vote, and she may be able to take advantage of that yet again here.

The big thing here is how much Neku matters. While he's from a relatively obscure game in The World Ends With You, he's still no doubt pulling from the Square fanbase - it seems loved enough on this site. The fans of this game seem like the rabid type, who are going to come out in full to support this dude. More than likely, it won't amount to a whole lot, but it could hold Frog back, and that could allow KOS-MOS to slip by.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/26/2008 10:20:39 PM | message detail | #382
I'm not expecting this to be the case, though. As mentioned TWEWY is a rather 'cult' thing, in the same vein as something like Disgaea. Its got a fanbase, they're probably a loyal bunch in spite of the game being so new, but I doubt its cycled through the site enough to be that big of a deal. And for whatever it's worth, Frog has CTDS coming soon. It is port hype, which is dubious at best, but it's something.
damn you chrono trigger characters and being weak

Prediction: Ganondorf - 46% ; Frog - 22% ; KOS-MOS - 18% ; Neku - 14%
Bracket: Ganondorf > Frog
Vote: Frog

Yoblazer’s Analysis

Well look who we have here (it is Frog). Get out the inhalers, guyz, we might be needing them. Today's match is another in the category where we have an obvious winner, an obvious lamb, but a pretty contested battle in the middle. And guess who is in the middle oh hay there Frog glad to see you.

Ganondorf, The Legend of Zelda's sinister antagonist, is the clear choice for first place today. He'd trounce any of his three opponents in a standard match, and, as if he needed any help, is the poll's only Nintendo option. On the opposite end of the spectrum sits Neku Sakuraba, main character from The World Ends With You. We've already seen Neku's counterpart, Sho, bomb pretty hard in this contest, so this guy's outlook is extremely bleak. He may do a bit better than Sho (being the main protagonist and all), but he'll still be doomed to last place by a mile.

With those two seedy buns out of the way, we can finally get to the meat of this match: Frog vs. KOS-MOS. Yes, I said Frog. Did I mention to call the ambulance? Maybe the fire department, too. Yes because it is Frog and he has shown to bring about such things or something like that who cares it's Frog.

I think if you look at the long histories of these two, Frog proves to be the stronger competitor, but it can also be argued that ha has fallen more sharply than KOS-MOS over the years. Yes, he was responsible for one of the most exciting moments of last year's contest, but it still was just a rally-fueled, last minute win over Axel. Frog then followed that up by losing handily to Scorpion - a beating no rally could have turned. Objectively, KOS-MOS had the more impressive contest. She was able to take advantage of the Diablo/Arthas fanbase split and move on to the second round, despite probably being weaker than either of them intrinsically.

So, who do you go with when decent arguments can be made on either side? You go for ****ing Frog, for the love of ****. Are you kidding me? In my opinion, this guy has officially taken Knuckles's dropped "Never Loses in the First Round" title. Frog makes a damned heart attack out of everything, but he always manages to pull through before cardiac arrest claims his amphibious life. If the contest is close, Frog wins. No ifs. No ands. No buts. Frog wins when it counts. Granted, I'm not even expecting this match to be that close, but if KOS-MOS surprises us and makes it so, Frog is the best damn bracket insurance policy (in the first round) you can ask for.

Frog - 25%
Ganondorf - 43%
KOS-MOS - 22%
Neku Sakuraba - 10%

Lopen’s Analysis

All things considered, this match looks a lot like Luigi's pack. Elite Nintendo, TWEWY character, two midcarders. Liquid being significantly better than Frog and KOS-MOS, Roxas being significantly worse. Should about equal out, I expect %s for Neku and Ganondorf similar to what Luigi and Sho got. (Sorry, Neku, you don't get the Sho rant treatment as this match is debatable)
Master Moltar | Posted 9/26/2008 10:21:27 PM | message detail | #383
So where does the rest of the percentage go? Frog is no doubt the favorite here... he has the achievement advantage and the "when it's close, Frog will cheat" factor going in. That being said... based on past contests KOS-MOS will keep this thing very close. Last year... I'd consider her round 1 four pack to be on par with both of Frog's... and her percentage, right about the same too. People are quick to say "Samus is stronger than Mega Man so Frog's lookin better coming in" but Diablo/Arthas's advantage over Axel and KERRIGAN (and Scorpion/Midna) are being underestimated. Even SFFed, I'd take them as the stronger duo.

Meanwhile, in previous contests KOS-MOS has also been about on par with Frog. In 2005 Frog did about 3% worse on Samus than KOS-MOS did... mind you, 2003 KOS-MOS is probably stronger than she is now, and 2003 Samus is probably weaker than 2005 Samus.. but something to think about. There are other parallels, but they require too much indirect matching for my tastes. Also, most importantly, who would consider KOS-MOS over Axel? I'd take it... I can't be the only one.

That being said, there isn't that much to say about this match. I basically took KOS-MOS because she's hotter than Frog and told me there was an approximately 62.3400012% chance of her obtaining more votes than Frog based on her calculations involving barometric pressure and nineteen geopolitical factors. KOS-MOS wouldn't lie to me, so I feel safe. I mean, if you're more into that whole amphibian thing like some B8ers are, or are afraid of cheaters, you take Frog.

Basically what I'm saying is this match is a total toss-up contrary to what some Frog pickers might tell you, and you basically just pick who you want to win/gut/x-factors. No real stat way to analyze this one. I have this sneaking feeling that KOS-MOS might hold up better than Frog in multi-way polls because of TJF and all that, and because Xenosaga is way more cult than Chrono Trigger on this site and yet she still does about as well as Frog in spite of that... implying that her fanbase might be more loyal, but we haven't much raw evidence to support that this won't just be close all the way.

Lopen's Prediction:
Ganondorf – 39.03%
KOS-MOS – 26.00%
Frog – 25.02%
Neku Sakuraba – 9.95%

Transience’s Analysis

going out of town in two hours augh can't even see pictures


time for some FROGFEAR. Frog and KOS-MOS are dead-equal statistically:

KOS-MOS 30.25% 34246
Samus Aran 69.75% 78948

Samus Aran 70.05% 68106
Frog 29.95% 29112

...but you wouldn't know it since people are terrified of Frog. they think Frog has some kind of "clutch ability", which is flat-out silly. Frog has a strong fanbase that will come to his rescue if it's super-close, but he also has the worst day vote this side of Kefka, and Chrono Trigger is yet another year older and probably still in a freefall. (no, Chrono Trigger DS being announced isn't going to turn things around, not until it's out.)

the logical argument for Frog is simple - Chrono Trigger is miles more popular than Xenosaga - but that was the same argument we used for Frog over Axel and Frog basically lost that match. as for KOS-MOS, I'd argue that she's more popular amongst the Xenosaga fanbase than Frog is with the CT fanbase. yeah, Xenosaga's play rate is lower, but KOS is actually appealing to regular people: it's a hot android chick vs. a frog. we've seen the arguments against Xenosaga's popularity before, but KOS-MOS has never had a problem putting up consistently good numbers for five years: 60%+ on two very well-known characters, Amy Rose and Crash. 38% on Aeris and Ryu. she's not a powerhouse, but Frog is barely over the fodder line so she doesn't have to be.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/26/2008 10:21:50 PM | message detail | #384
..and after saying all this, I can't pick her. chalk me up as one of the scared. or chalk me up as someone who thinks Xenosaga is fading fast, even faster than Chrono Trigger. whatever. I hate this match.

Frog's overrated
almost got beat by Axel
crushed by Scorpion

transience's prediction: Ganondorf with 45.55%, Frog with 23.04%, KOS-MOS with 21.78%, Neku with 9.63%

Ngamer’s Analysis

Nothing wrong with the occasional slight breather like today provided, but still, it's good to be back into the realm of debatable matches! For tonight we've got one heavy hitter, almost-fodders, and one mid-ranger fodder (most likely). There's plenty to be excited about here IMO, so let's hop right to it!

When we last saw our heroes...

Last Known Values:
Ganon - 31.88% (2007)
Frog - 20.25% (2007)
KOS-MOS - 19.28% (2007)
Neku - new

To start, Ganon's head and heels above the competition and shouldn't be challenged here. Even so, how he does could be another of those pretty good barometers for where Nintendo stands currently, much like Samus provided today. It won't be quite as pure since I think Frog works at least somewhat like a Nintendo character himself, but is still something to watch out for. Neku should also be worth keeping an eye on- we've already seen one TWEWY character in action, but he got about the worst draw this side of Geno in having to contend with a Kingdom Hearts character all day long, so I wouldn't put much faith in his final value; today should give us a much more accurate estimate of whether or not TWEWY is worth anything in these Contests.

But of course the real heart of the meat is Frog/KOS. As I see it, Frog has two things working for him and two working against him. The two against him are that Neku is a fellow Square RPG character (this probably won't matter too much in the long run through- they're seperated by so many years and console generations that I can't see there being a huge overlap like there apparently was with KH) and, much more importantly, he always seems to play down to the level of his competition. As much as we love to glorify Frog and blast his Theme as he pulls out close matches, I think we tend to forget that those matches were only close due to him choking relative to expectations. Axel, Master Chief, Liquid Snake... well alright, so he did rise to a challenge once against Snake, but between Solid *(&$ and rally power and whatever other crazy stuff was going on at the time, I don't know how much stock we should put in it. So, its entirely possible that he allows KM to hang in this match much longer than he ought to.

The two points in Frog's favor here, however, easily outweigh those two negatives in my estimation. The first is that if you're going to beat Frog, you need to have a very strong Day Vote and/or ASV. KOS-MOS is unfortunately lined up perfectly the opposite in her trends- she's good at the start of matches and through the overnight, but wilts when the sun rises and doesn't do any ASV damage. With Chrono Trigger being such a powerhouse in the first three hours, I'm having trouble seeing her be able to take the lead at any point during this poll. And the second point is of course that Frog doesn't lose close matches. If you want to come away with the win you better have built up a 500 vote lead by the final half hour, because otherwise this Board will do everything in their power to keep the comeback tradition alive.

Oh, and I guess there's two other points worth noting as well. In Frog's favor: Chrono Trigger DS. Maybe it hasn't had any kind of impact yet, but even so, it could only mean good things for him as the release date approaches. And in KM's favor: she's going to look really good in this match pic (at least if SB uses the picture Zen submitted for her, and he'd be crazy not to!).
Master Moltar | Posted 9/26/2008 10:23:09 PM | message detail | #385
So although I think Frog should be able to surive and advance in this one, I don't exactly see him doing so in style. With that in mind, the numbers in the pot, and after a bit of stirring, we find...

Ganondorf - 43.89%
Frog - 21.82%
KOS-MOS - 20.72%
Neku Sakuraba - 13.55%

I love it!

Ngamer Says: Ganon > Frog

Guest’s Analysis - DpOblivion

Samus looks solid with a 52% performance today, and we will see a lesser but still dangerous Nintendo power today in Ganondorf. While his victory isn't quite as guaranteed as the Noble Niner's, there should be no question about his victory tomorrow.

Also, like today, although there could be some reason to think about the possibility of an upset, second place should go to Frog relatively easily. While KOS-MOS has some strength, as Fei Fong Wong demonstrated, she's just not going to stand up to the stronger characters.

While Frog always likes to keep things interesting, Frog has struggled mightily against Samus on multiple occasions, and while Ganondorf isn't as strong, he's plenty strong enough of a Nintendo vote to defeat Frog 1-on-1. Add in the fact that also in the poll are a fairly-popular RPG character in KOS-MOS and a popular niche RPG character in Neku, and the SFF will push Frog even further away.

As for second, there's no question that the Chrono Trigger vote will be greater than the Xenogears vote, and we've seen both Frog and KOS-MOS plenty, so there won't be any surprises here, and there's no reason to think that there could be rSFF in play here.

Neku's just happy to be here, and like Sho, he should bring up a distant rear.

The biggest question here may be how high does Ganondorf go? We saw him get 49% in the first round last year against weak opponents, and while his first round opponents this year are certainly stronger, they are concentrated into the same genre. Frog may only appeal to the older crowd, Xenogears is lacking in the mainstream vote, and Neku is niche. 50% is tough, but I can see Ganondorf pulling it off (Oracle shows I may be highly overrating Ganondorf here, but whatever).

The only thing this is missing is a Notre Game sig....

Dp's bracket says: Ganondorf > Frog

Dp's prediction is: Ganondorf > Frog

Ganondorf - 51%
Frog - 23%
KOS-MOS - 17%
Neku - 9%

Crew Consensus: Ganondorf > Frog is...unanimous! Well Lopen thinks otherwise, but it's Lopen!
DpObliVion | Posted 9/26/2008 10:25:07 PM | message detail | #386
Go Ganondorf! You can do it!

Vote for **CRASH BANDICOOT** - Booyah, Grandma. Booyah.
Lopen | Posted 9/26/2008 10:31:00 PM | message detail | #387
Odd that all of these write-ups acknowledged KOS-MOS upset potential, yet they all have her losing by at least 1%. Odd indeed! Not even going to need a Frog last minute rush, eh?

Victory will be mine!
Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/26/2008 10:32:12 PM | message detail | #388
Lopen was the only one to pick KOS-MOS?

In a reasonable upset choice?

He's got it. KOS-MOS winning is now certain.

DpObliVion | Posted 9/26/2008 10:33:37 PM | message detail | #389
Let's see....highest Ganondorf percentage, lowest Neku percentage, biggest gap between Frog and KOS-MOS....yup, that's my prediction.

Vote for **CRASH BANDICOOT** - Booyah, Grandma. Booyah.
Lopen | Posted 9/26/2008 10:34:32 PM | message detail | #390
And unlike the last, this one is not just me talking myself up into taking an upset pick in the crew write-up. This badboy is supported by my bracket.

KOS-MOS ain't never failed me before, let's do this.
Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Lopen | Posted 9/26/2008 10:35:54 PM | message detail | #391
And yeah holy crap Dp Ganondorf has no chance in hell of hitting that. Do you know how much stronger this pack is than the one Samus is facing today? And only 1% lower?
Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Master Moltar | Posted 9/27/2008 11:38:09 AM | message detail | #392
Crash Bandicoot....16.89% 20841
Nightmare...............22.69% 27999
Raz..............................8.23% 10162
Samus Aran.............52.19% 64408
TOTAL VOTES.....................123410

What Happened - In an extremely uninteresting and pretty static match, Samus and Nightmare move on to Round 2. Crash started out close, but Nightmare quickly took off.

Why it Happened - Nothing really surprising here. Samus got what she needed to look decent enough, and Nightmare does about the same here has he did last year in Round 1.

What Will Happen - This match hasn't really changed the landscape for Round 2 due to being so expected.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay everyone!

Guest - 6
HM - 5
Yoblazer - 5
Tran - 5
Ngamer - 5
Moltar - 4
Lopen - 4

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Moltar gets the point for Samus, Tran gets the point for Nightmare, HM gets the point for Crash and Moltar, HM and Dp get points for Raz.

HM - 8
Yoblazer - 7
Ngamer - 6
Tran - 6
Lopen - 5
Guest (War, KP (2), Dp) - 4
Moltar - 4
Moltar Status: augh
Frog/Ganondorf/KOS-MOS/Neku - Bracket: Ganondorf > Frog - Vote: Ganondorf (26/36)
gamer88coool | Posted 9/27/2008 8:14:45 PM | message detail | #393
Seeing how Roxas did I'm scared.
I had Sora and Riku goin pretty far.
Character Battle 7 currently: 27 points
Today: Neku>Ganondorf Tomorrow: Vincent>Falco
Master Moltar | Posted 9/27/2008 9:48:14 PM | message detail | #394
Division 3: Round 1 - Match 11 – Falco Lombardi vs. GlaDOS vs. Vincent Valentine vs. Wander

Moltar’s Analysis

Game/Series Known From: Star Fox
2007 Results: N/A

Brawl Character #11, Personally, I prefer the air!

Game/Series Known From: Portal
2007 Results: N/A

How awesome is this? So awesome

Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy VII
2007 Results: 1st Place in Round 1 vs. Zelda, The Boss and Tails
2nd Place in Round 2 vs. Link, Bidoof and Zelda
2nd Place in Round 3 vs. Link, Crono and Zero
4th Place in Round 4 vs. Link, Sephiorth and Mario

The optional guy from FF7 returns!

Game/Series Known From: Shadow of the Colossus
2007 Results: 4th Place in Round 1 vs. Mario, Big Boss and Pac-Man

I kinda wish he would wander away from these contests

For this match, I decided to visit the Aperture Science facility and talk to the machine herself, GlaDOS, about this battle.

Moltar: Hello GlaDOS, it’s a pleasure to have this interview with you

GlaDOS: Thank you Moltar, we aim to please at the Aperture Science Enrichment Center.

Moltar: Yes, and I also eagerly await the cake we’ll be having once this concludes.

GlaDOS: The cake will be delicious. It has been baked to perfection.

Moltar: So about you, you’re in Portal, which was a highly praised game by the masses. Do you think that will give you some strength in these Character Battles?

GlaDOS: I think it does, Moltar. The only voice throughout the game worth listening to is mine, and I must say, that listening to my beautiful soothing voice for 3 hours causes even those with the coldest hearts to fall in love with me.

Moltar: You’re opponents are tough though. First up, there’s Vincent, who’s one of the strongest characters we’ve ever seen in these battles.

GlaDOS: Vincent is a joke. I know about Final Fantasy 7, and his appearance is not guaranteed. Unlike mine, players have to experience the greatness that is me in my game. If he does manage to win, it will only be because the voters are Final Fantasy fanboys.

Moltar: Uh…okay. How about Falco, who is new, but also is a main character of the popular Star Fox franchise and a character in the “smash-hit” series, Super Smash Bros.?

GlaDOS: Falco is nothing more than an annoying bird. Only one group of people will vote for him, and that is the poor Nintendo kiddies who will never amount to anything in life. Oh, and the furries. But then again, they were those Nintendo kids too at one point.

Moltar: Wow, strong words. You’re quite feisty. Any words for your final opponent, Wander?

GlaDOS: Wander can, how you humans say, “blow me”.

Moltar: Well, someone is confident in herself! Oh, and before I forget, the Weighted Companion Cube is also in the Contest. How do you think it will do?

GlaDOS: The Aperture Science Weighted Companion Cube will meet the same fate it did in Portal, death.

Moltar: Well, thank you for that interview, GlaDOS. It sure was…something. Now, how about that cake?

GlaDOS: Oh Moltar, you are a foolish child indeed.

Anyway, Vincent takes first by a mile, and second is between Falco and GlaDOS. I don’t think Portal is big enough to be a threat to Falco, who has Star Fox, Smash Bros. and the Nintendo fanbase behind him.

Plus, GlaDOS isn’t exactly a joke character, it’s an actual character in the game. It’ll pretty much have to rely on the Portal fanbase to not look awful here since you won’t know who GlaDOS even is unless you play the game or know a significant amount about Portal. Also, this isn’t just some cutesy-Cube that voters will go “lol vote”, this is…whatever that thing is in the picture yeesh. Since I don’t see joke voters won’t backing her in droves, the upset potential is low here.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/27/2008 9:48:35 PM | message detail | #395
Wander does exactly what he did last year, fail.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Vincent > Falco

Moltar’s Prediction is: Vincent: 48% - Falco: 26% - GlaDOS:17% - Wander: 9%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Good match right here -- if only for the fact that Vincent's going to shine. In each contest Vincent's been in since 2005, he's put on killer performance after killer performance. He came in strong, got stronger, and then went and beat one of the Noble Nine last year. Keeping with that this year, he's got another shot to prove that the Noble Nine don't mean a thing and then cruise his way into the finals -- past Mario and Samus. No character has been as impressive as Vincent since 2005 -- and I doubt we're going to see that change this year.

He should put on a show this first match. The only characters to break 50% in this format last year were the Noble Nine guys. Ganondorf came close, but he didn't quite get there. Given Vincent's strength and how weak this pack should be, I'm thinkin' he'll cruise past 50% here. You've got a Smash character (how many of these do we need), a voice from Portal, and then Wander. Not much competition there, unless Glados ends up having joke tendencies.

My initial reaction for second was to go with Glados here, but apparently it's not really that much of a 'joke,' not in the same sense as L-Block or the Companion Cube would be. So if there's no real 'joke' there I'm just expecting it to be weak. You never know how people are going to take it, though. If it turns out to be another joke character it's going to take second place easily here. Honestly, there's not much to expect from Falco Lombardi. I'm suspect on how much Fox is actually worth, so Falco doesn't even register for me. Maybe he'll surprise, but I doubt it.

but who cares about second noble nine move aside vincent has arrived -- watch out samus

Prediction: Vincent - 56% ; Falco - 20% ; Glados - 16% ; Wander - 8%
Bracket: Vincent > Falco
Vote: Vincent

Yoblazer’s Analysis

Today, we have a very easy, predictable match with a minute chance of any surprises. Consider this boring break a blessing, as Division 4 will soon have us crapping out our wangs.

I say "Falco, GlaDOS, Vincent Valentine, and Wander", and the order is clear with little more than a moment's thought. Two of these entrants may be new, but not much is up in the air here. Vincent, the mysterious optional character (omg he's not even required how can he be so strong) from FFVII, is the clear star of this poll. The two newcomers won't touch him, and the next 24 hours will be for him to shine. Vincent already has Noble 9-breaking strength, and his status as a cool fan favorite helps him in this format. That, coupled with what I'm assuming are three weak opponents, means Vincent has a great chance to eclipse 50%. In doing so, he would be only the eighth character (and first non-Noble 9er) to accomplish such a feat in this format. This will probably be the most exciting thing we watch out for today (at least after the first hour or so, as Vinny does have a notably bad Power Hour).

Our other returning "veteran" doesn't have quite the contest pedigree of our dear pal Vincent. He is Wander from Sony's Shadow of the Colossus, and he ****ing sucks. Wander was horridly weak last year, only managing 9% in his first and only match. He should be even weaker this year, but he's also up against weaker competition, so maybe he'll squeeze an extra percentage point or so before being shelved for good (and stay out!).
Master Moltar | Posted 9/27/2008 9:49:14 PM | message detail | #396
With any luck, our new duo may provide for a hint of excitement, at least in the early goings (although most of us doubt it). They are Falco Lombardi of Star Fox fame and GlaDOS from last year's award-winning Portal. We're not sure exactly how strong these two will be, but we can speculate. Falco, logically, will be a Fox Lite (or perhaps a Fox Very Lite). He doesn't have his name and face plastered all over the Star Fox series, but he has been a popular addition in both Smash Bros. Melee and Brawl, so I think he'll pack at least some punch. GlaDOS is not as easy to peg, and I feel her range is much wider. She's a cult favorite from one of 2007's most critically acclaimed titles. If the Portal fanbase is truly something legitimate, she may be strong enough to give Falco a scare. If it isn't, I can see her bombing completely. Personally, I'm not expecting much (especially with her unlucky picture conundrum), but I wouldn't mind being wrong in exchange for a fun match.

Falco Lombardi - 24%
GlaDOS - 15%
Vincent Valentine - 51%
Wander - 10%

Lopen’s Analysis

Vincent is the easy first place guy here. With enough bullets to perhaps take the outright victory over all three combined. I mean, look at his opponents:

Wander stars in a horse riding simulator. Look at that picture... blurry enough to look like he was hit by a Falcon Punch... or stepped on by a colossus or something. Honestly, I don't see why Shadow of the Colossus fans keep nominating this guy. Even if you love the game, the character isn't that interesting... might as well nominate Prego, his pasta loving horse.

GlaDOS I'd originally considered for the upset over Falco. Portal has a nice following, GlaDOS no doubt receives almighty Rock Band boost (that's why I'm voting her!) due to Still Alive being free DLC. Then I realized that... she looks not like a she but... what the hell is that? Then I investigate further and find out that she's a nameless voice for most of Portal and uhhh... yeah I can't see GlaDOS doing anything here. Recognizability and a bad image will be the death of her.

Unlike the other two mega fodders, Falco should do alright. We saw Fox last year and he did alright for himself... and Falco pretty much has everything going for him Fox does. Guys are like peas in a pod. I mean, I think he's kinda one and done, likely being a bit weaker than Fox but this round should help give us an idea of how good he's lookin to upset Scorpion next round.

Lopen's prediction:
Vincent – 48.89%
Falco – 24.13%
GlaDOS – 15.97%
Wander – 11.01%

Transience’s Analysis

ahh, Glados. I can't wait to see you, because you're like a lab experiment. I want to see just how knowledgable your fanbase is.

for those who don't know, Glados is a disembodied voice that's never referred to by name, or if it is it's only once in the game. Glados's physical form is literally nothing, a picture won't help it at all, and I fully expect a lot of Portal fans to have no idea what the hell a Glados is.

but those that know will vote for her over *anything*.

Glados isn't quite a "joke character" -- she's highly entertaining and awesome, but not an inanimate object or anything. there's a rabid fanbase behind her. Still Alive has been overplayed for a year straight now thanks to this voice. it's been an internet meme for what feels like forever. like Phoenix Wright, Portal's entire fanbase seems to be on the internet, and they're rabid as hell. I guess the equivalent of Glados would be CATS, only take away the picture. Portal is certainly bigger with the gaming community than AYB is today, but at least CATS has a face. Glados is going purely off name recognition.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/27/2008 9:49:41 PM | message detail | #397
that name recognition is probably enough to get some 15% in a poll. is it good enough to beat a popular Smash Bros. character? probably not. but if it does, I bet it can make a nice little run in this contest. I'd love to see it against Gordon Freeman in round 2. let's do this.

this was a triumph
Glados has a chance to win
won't beat Falco though

transience's prediction: Vincent with 48.45%, Falco with 24.21%, Glados with 17.44%, Wander with 9.90%

Ngamer’s Analysis

Can't help but be impressed with Frog today. CT another year older, Ganon having SNES appeal, Neku having Square RPG appeal, KOS looking smokin' in the picture, and yet he was never in danger of losing and *gasp* didn't even lay a total egg with the ASV! Has CT:DS made the game somewhat relevant again, or was this just Xenosaga having run out of gas? Hopefully the upcoming Magus match will help clear the picture. Now, as for today...

Not an awful match, but don't see it being all that intense either. I never bought into the hype for GlaDOS being anything more than fun fodder that it would be worth a laugh to see in an official match pic (and there's certainly going to be plenty laughing tonight, it looks like!), so I'd be shocked if Falco is ever challenged beyond the first five minutes. Probably the best thing to keep an eye on here will be Vincent- he took down Crono without too much trouble last season, but with CT back on the upswing (maybe?) and there not being "a Link in the room" this time around, he still needs to put up solid numbers these first two rounds to cement his favorite status for that rematch.

Speaking of '07, just how good DID he look? Well...

Last Known Values
Vincent - 36.25% (2007)
Falco - new
GlaDOS - new
Wander - 10.04% (2007)

Wander looked awful in the match pic, performed awfully during the entire 24 hours of the poll, and finished up in an awful position on the final x-stats. Mario/Boss/Pac had no reason to LFF Wander; he's just legitimately one of the weakest characters we've even seen in a poll. And yet we brought him back? *shakes head sadly*

I'm pretty excited to see what Falco will be capable of here. SF didn't make the Game or Series Contests and Fox always gets placed in unwinnable positions, so this will pretty much be our first chance to see what the series is worth when given a fair shot. I think he's going to surprise some people by looking decent here, which would do wonders for me in terms of creating confidence in that crazy Fox > Sora upset I took in my bracket! GlaDOS... meh. I have a ton of respect for Portal and love Still Alive as much as anyone, but I knew she was going to look "like THAT" in the match pic which made my Falco pick an easy decision. Really happy to see her given a shot, but sadly it seems a given that WCC's going to be outdoing her by a healthy margin this season.

As for Vincent, I think he's in much the same position as Samus and Ganon the last two days. Obviously isn't going to be in any way threatened, but how he ends up could still be a strong indication as to where Square/Final Fantasy will be sitting here in 2008. Zack and Zidane seemed to point to something of a FF boost, but then Kefka bombed out and left us wondering. A big time performance for VV here would set alot of fears at rest in the Square camp, I'd have to think.

Soooo basically Vincent and Falco should be able to perform at full strength, while GlaDOS and Wander should be able to prove they have no strength. Throw THAT in your pot and... stir it! And you get:

Vincent Valentine - 51.03%
Falco Lombardi - 22.89%
GlaDOS - 15.91%
Wander - 10.16%

Mmm... if that were a cake, it'd be both delicious and truthful!

Ngamer Says: Vincent > Falco
Master Moltar | Posted 9/27/2008 9:50:27 PM | message detail | #398
Guest’s Analysis - Soul

Falco - N/A
GlaDOS - N/A
Vincent - Godly
Wander - N/A or they are but he sucks so bad that it doesn't matter

These kinds of matches always entertain! One very strong character Vs. three completely unknown characters!

Ok, who's kidding who? We have Vincent which will smoke everyone here (sadly), facing two characters who could potentially finish second.

Vincent first came into the contest scene in some random year (where Knux upsetted Magus) with a boom! He first crushed Kerrigan, shattering the brackets of the 7 people who argued with me constantly before that match. He then goes on and beats... Dante? Yeah, my memory is a little off there, but he still kicked ass and took names. Dante's to be more precise. Following that win, I believe he basically split with Squall but managed to win at the end, and then lost to someone. The next few years, he beat Ganondorf and Crono, but lost to Sonic, Crono, and someone else. So yeah, he's pretty strong.

GlaDOS is here for her first ever contest! Everyone with any sort of gaming taste should be celebrating right now. If you're not celebrating, it's because you haven't played Portal. If that's the case, what the hell is wrong with you? The game has been out for like a year now. It won numerous game of the year awards. It was ranked/rated very high by every reviewer/critic and gamers alike. Even Yahtzee, whose job it is to hate on games, couldn't write anything negative about it. THAT IS YAHTZEE, THE PERSON WHO RAGGED ON BRAWL BECAUSE SONIC WAS A HIDDEN CHARACTER! Seriously, he hates the tiniest of things, and goes out of his ways to make sure he has something to hate on, but he couldn't find anything to hate in Portal. GO PLAY THE GAME!

Uh... where was I now. Falco is the third character in this three pack (**** Wander, he's not going to do a damn thing here) and most have him finishing in second behind Vincent. Those people are fools. You see, not only is Falco going to finish in a distant third, but Vincent isn't even going to finish in first!

Mwahaha! (Thank God I'm not on the crew anymore or else this would be pretty much suicide).
Master Moltar | Posted 9/27/2008 9:51:10 PM | message detail | #399
Yes, you read that right. GlaDOS will be winning this four-pack. While Falco is the main star in the Star Fox series (piss off Fox we all know who the better pilot is), and he may be excellent in Smash Bros. Melee/Brawl, his strength won't be anything worthwhile. We already saw Lucario (starring in a much bigger series and being popular in Brawl) fail against one of the weakest entrants to ever appear in these contests. Altair isn't even loved by his own fanbase. Seriously, what the hell? How could Lucario lose to someone that no one likes?

Simple, Lucario (and by extension, Smash Bros newcomers) aren't strong here. Falco should be equal to Lucario, so he's not going to do a thing here.

Now, Vincent on the other hand, will be tough. Honestly, I could see a few ways how Vincent would beat GlaDOS here, but each one of them is a stretch. We all saw what L-Block did to Link/Cloud/Snake last year. He made all three of them look like jokes. We all know GlaDOS will be significantly stronger then the Cube (everyone who has played Portal will realize this), and the Cube came close to L-Block last year in the final. Vincent couldn't even get 10% against Link/Sephiroth/and a SFFed Mario. I think it's safe to assume that L-Block would beat all the characters, but GlaDOS would land somewhere between the Block and Vincent pretty easily.

With that said, Vincent is an optional character from FF7. That's where he gets all his strength from. He isn't even popular enough to be invited to the Kingdom Hearts universe. Let me remind you that Aeris is in those games. Aeris for christ's sake! FF7 characters that have appeared already (Zack) are only popular because of Crisis Core. Vincent wasn't in Crisis Core, so he's losing all that boost.

If he's so popular, why is he getting left behind by Square? Simple, because they know he's old news. They know the fanbase doesn't care about him and would rather not include him in any of their new games. It's that simple. GameFAQs may have a screwed up portion of RPG fans here, but they won't be enough to pull Vincent ahead of GlaDOS.

In conclusion, GlaDOS is the star of the best game to come out in the past few years. She is loved by all who have player her game, and loved by those who haven't. She's the singer of the vastly popular "Still Alive" song that is sung at the end of the game. She loves cake. That will be enough to beat those two losers.

GlaDOS - 33.53%
Vincent - 30.57%
Falco - 28.90%
Wander - 6.00%

Crew Consensus: Vincent > Falco is the favorite here, but Soul is putting it all on the line with GlaDOS.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/27/2008 9:52:53 PM | message detail | #400
I love you Soul.
i am false