CNET Networks Entertainment GameSpot | GameFAQs | SportsGamer | | | MovieTome | Metacritic

Home What's New Contribute Features Boards My Games Help

GameFAQs Contests

Character Battle VII Contest Analysis Crew

transients | Posted 9/22/2008 9:47:23 PM | message detail | #301
whoa, someone went higher on Bowser than me. damn you aitch emm you loved Phoenix Wright last year
zfs: man i'm reading an argument about whether or not midna is fat
zfs: come on mgs4
RaeSaraneth | Posted 9/22/2008 10:28:11 PM | message detail | #302
Hm, I had Bowser>Cain. I didn't know anything about Phoenix's previous scores :*( Can't win them all, I suppose.
Ed Bellis | Posted 9/22/2008 10:29:30 PM | message detail | #303
ed status: doin thangs
Lopen | Posted 9/22/2008 10:36:00 PM | message detail | #304
Ha still went higher than Bellis on Deckard no chance of points for you Bellis whatsoever. We have you surrounded, infidel!
Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
transients | Posted 9/22/2008 10:36:43 PM | message detail | #305
don't worry, we know all about previous matches and we still went 0 for 4. anything is possible.
zfs: man i'm reading an argument about whether or not midna is fat
zfs: come on mgs4
Lopen | Posted 9/22/2008 10:36:50 PM | message detail | #306
Though I must admit "You have quite a treasure there in that OVERUSED HAIKU" is the quote of the match. You fight a good game, Bellis.
Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Ed Bellis | Posted 9/22/2008 10:37:13 PM | message detail | #307
i care not for points

i care only for your UTTER HUMILIATION
ed status: doin thangs
DpObliVion | Posted 9/22/2008 10:37:15 PM | message detail | #308
DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis:


Ok, that out of the way....and look at this, yet another match that I had trouble deciding. WTF this bracket....and once again, I'm choosing a character who I don't have much confidence in because I have even less confidence in the other.

I know the Blizzard vote can be surprisingly brutal, but I'm having a hard time seeing the votes come in for Deckard Cain like they have for previous Blizzard characters. I know one year ago he was a bigger sensation, but I still think the great popularity of Phoenix Wright will be enough to push him through into the second round.

Dp's bracket says: Bowser > Phoenix

Dp's prediction is: Bowser > Phoenix

Bowser - 41%
Phoenix - 23%
Deckard - 20%
Geno - 16%

Character Battle VII *PRINTABLE BRACKET* - Look in my profile for links. GO SONIC
Justin_Crossing | Posted 9/22/2008 11:16:59 PM | message detail | #309

I just felt like posting this since it's a purely analysis topic. I do a nightly one (Started on the second match) and it's been doing okay so far :|
Justin's CB Points: 16 | Points After this Round: 20
Today: Bowser > Phoenix | Tomorrow: Mario > Knuckles
Tatl | Posted 9/22/2008 11:38:28 PM | message detail | #310
For the love of all that is holy on this planet, someone explain to me why the **** I have Bowser > Geno! This was an easy pick! What drugs were I on when I decided this match?!

Smash Brawl Code: 5370-0384-1628 -- Tag: Lupe
Main: Lucas --- Secondaries: Pikachu, Luigi, R.O.B., and Ivysaur --- Recent Interest: Sheik...NINJA POWER!
Justin_Crossing | Posted 9/22/2008 11:39:10 PM | message detail | #311
You were on Shrooms.

It had to be said.
Justin's CB Points: 16 | Points After this Round: 20
Today: Bowser > Phoenix | Tomorrow: Mario > Knuckles
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/23/2008 12:04:01 AM | message detail | #312
On that match where I used Lopen's idea to make up some predictions, I ended up doing a little over 1 point better than Lopen did.
Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Lopen | Posted 9/23/2008 12:40:25 AM | message detail | #313
I was still right about the hypotenuse! Pay more attention next time...!
Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Master Moltar | Posted 9/23/2008 10:10:47 AM | message detail | #314
Liquid Snake..........33.1% 46173
Luigi.......................39.68% 55362
Roxas.....................19.11% 26662
Sho Minamimoto....8.11% 11309
TOTAL VOTES...................139506

What Happened - Finally, a match goes as planned! Liquid Snake started off really strong, and the night vote brought him over 35%. However, he fell from there, and Roxas was able to pick up a little. Luigi just kind of float around his final percentage, and Sho was Sho.

Why it Happened - The only thing not really expected here was Liquid's overperformance. You could chalk some of that up to MGS4, but that would be a crazy boost if ALL of it was from MGS4. Well, I'll just wait for Round 2 to see if Liquid is legit.

What Will Happen - If Liquid can repeat his performance in Round 2, he's got first all but locked up. Luigi and Bowser should split Luigi/Ganondorf style. Still, Liquid collapsed in Round 2 last year with strong competition, so I'm not 100% behind him yet.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay everyone (except HM take that)

HM - 2
Guest (KP, Leon) - 2
Moltar - 1
Yoblazer - 1
Lopen - 1
Tran - 1
Ngamer - 1

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Ngamer gets the point for Luigi, Tran gets the point for Liquid and Sho, and Lopen gets the point for Roxas.

HM - 5
Lopen - 4
Guest (War, KP (2)) - 3
Yoblazer - 3
Ngamer - 3
Tran - 3
Moltar - 0
Moltar Status: augh
Bowser/Deckard/Geno/Phoenix - Bracket: Bowser > Phoenix - Vote: Bowser (12/20)
Gaddswell | Posted 9/23/2008 4:19:59 PM | message detail | #315
Moltar, what was your email again? My guest analysis is ready
transients | Posted 9/23/2008 4:31:48 PM | message detail | #316
zfs: man i'm reading an argument about whether or not midna is fat
zfs: come on mgs4
Gaddswell | Posted 9/23/2008 7:01:04 PM | message detail | #317
Ok, sent!
Master Moltar | Posted 9/23/2008 9:18:11 PM | message detail | #318
Division 2: Round 1 - Match 7 – Fei Fong Wong vs. Knuckles the Echinda vs. Mario vs. Zelda

Moltar’s Analysis

Game/Series Known From: Xenogears
2007 Results: N/A

i can’t make this stuff up

Game/Series Known From: Sonic
2007 Results: 2nd Place in Round 1 vs. Yoshi, Rikku and Vaan
3rd Place in Round 2 vs. Mega Man, Yoshi and KOS-MOS

Knock, knock, it's Knuckles, the blow-thrower ; Independent flow-er, magical Emerald holder; Give you the coldest shoulder, my spike goes through boulders; That's why I stay a loner

Game/Series Known From: Super Mario
2007 Results: 1st Place in Round 1 vs. Big Boss, Pac-Man and Wander
1st Place in Round 2 vs. Big Boss, Magus and Phoenix
2nd Place in Round 3 vs. Sephiroth, Big Boss and Fox
3rd Place in Round 4 vs. Link, Sephiroth and Vincent

Brawl Character #7, and one of the strongest to boot!

Game/Series Known From: Legend of Zelda
2007 Results: 2nd Place in Round 1 vs. Vincent, The Boss and Tails
4th Place in Round 2 vs. Link, Vincent and Bidoof

Brawl Character #8, that’s 8 in 7 matches!

Sadly, this is as good as it gets in Division 2 this round. First thing is big LOL at Fei Fong Wong (honestly wtf xenogears). Not only would he have been crushed in just about any other fourpack here, but he got stuck in one of the strongest Round 1 groups we’ve ever seen, with representatives from Mario, Zelda and Sonic. Talk about unlucky.

Since he’s a non-factor here, time to get to the real meat of this match. Zelda vs. Knuckles. Mario takes first without a problem, but we have two upper-midcarders fighting it out for second. Man, it feels good to write about characters worth caring about.

Zelda looked awful last year, but that’s mostly because she had an impossible path for her to conquer. Vincent in Round 1, and then Link joins her in Round 2. She ended up getting beat so bad, she looked worse than the Doof. Knuckles didn’t have the best of luck either, winning in a close match in Round 1 against Rikku and then bowing out in Round 2 thanks to Mega Man and Yoshi.

I have Knuckles getting second here. Yes, I think Zelda is stronger in a 1 on 1 match, but this is different. As we’ve seen time and time again, you’re going to need a more dedicated fanbase to succeed here. Zelda pretty much just leeches off the Legend of Zelda strength, which is why she usually looks great. Knuckles is actually a fan-favorite in the Sonic series. Mario will be putting the hurt on both characters badly, but Knuckles just has a more dedicated group of fans, so I see him getting the victory.

Shadow’s performance really worries me though. He did even worse than I thought with Link in the poll, and now Knux has Mario with him. Yeah, Sonic sucks in this format and Zelda may not look as bad as she did last year, but still, it’s Zelda. No one actually likes Zelda (unless you play her in smash like some people typing this analysis), and I just think she’s going to collapse here with Mario, a very strong Nintendo character, and Knux, a character with a tight fanbase.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Mario > Knuckles

Moltar’s Prediction is: Mario: 47% - Knuckles: 22% - Zelda: 21% - Fei: 10%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Here's a pretty tough match. This all depends on the severity of SFF. It's all about whether or not Zelda can hold up in the same poll as Mr. Nintendo. After Zelda got trashed hard against Link last year -- enough to lose to The Doof -- I'm pretty skeptical of how she's going to hold up against Nintendo's number two. I'm sure there will be some polls used showing how she held up against Mega Man or put 45% on Samus, but those are different times and different characters. Hard for me to give Mega Man or Samus the SFF credit that you have to give Mario.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/23/2008 9:18:33 PM | message detail | #319
But Knuckles didn't exactly light anything on fire last year. He barely managed to get by Rikku with Vaan in the poll. That's not necessarily damning, because Rikku isn't weak or anything, but it shows that he's not nearly as strong as he looked to be a few years ago. Worse for him Sonic characters look pretty pitiful in this format. Shadow gettin' beat by Zidane doesn't instill any confidence in Knuckles here, because if you argue that Link SFF'd Shadow then there's reason to believe Mario could do a little damage to Knuckles, too.

This match comes down to who can suck less against SFF. It's hard for me to get over the fact that Zelda got mauled by Link enough to lose to Bidoof. You can say it's Link and look at what he did to Ganondorf, but the point still stands for me. It's Mario -- how many people are going to call Zelda their favorite character in this poll with him hanging around? With Knuckles you can at least be assured that there's gonna be a baes, however, small that will consider him over everyone here. Hard for me to believe Zelda can get that same support.

I'm expecting Zelda to get rocked pretty hard here by Mario. Knuckles probably gets hurt a little, too, but not quite enough to lose this match.

Prediction: Mario - 56% ; Knuckles - 19% ; Zelda - 16% ; Fei - 9%
Bracket: Mario > Knuckles
Vote: Fei

Yoblazer’s Analysis

Wow, two perfect matches in a row! I'd almost forgotten what calling these things correctly felt like! Unfortunately, there's a good chance that my high spirits will come crashing down very soon, as today's match is, once again, up in the air. We've seen this scenario a few times over the past year: first and last place are very much certain, but the middle two entrants will do the death tango to see who moves on and who moves home.

Mario is the poll's anchor, and he's obviously our winner tonight. The battle tested veteran has been in more of these matches than he'd care to remember, and he'll be looking to open up yet another contest in impressive fashion and give us the impression that he can go far despite the looming match-up(s) against Link. While Mario's victory is not in doubt, the role that his SFF will play on the rest of the competitors is (more on that later). Similarly, we all know where today's fourth entrant, Fei Fong Wong from Xenogears, will end up. Last place. Congratulations, Fei, you got two sentences. Actually, I think Fei might perform surprisingly well, as his name and art style stick out like anchovies on a pizza, and he's the only true non-Nintendo option we got (take a hike, Knuckles). Three sentences!

The true conflict in this match is between the two midcarders, Knuckles from the Sonic series and Zelda, the titular character of the Legend of Zelda series. Now, while we can easily hype the hell out of this, after what these two gave us last year and in the presence of Mario, this may turn into an epic battle of who sucks less. Both these two were very, very disappointing in this format last year, so they're both out for some redemption, oh yeah.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/23/2008 9:19:17 PM | message detail | #320
At first glance, it would seem that the inherent Nintendo SFF between Mario and Zelda would grant Knuckles the slight crack he needs to advance, but stopping there would be foolish! Yes, for we must also analyze Knuckles, himself (!!!)! Knuckles, like all the Sonic series characters, struggled fruitlessly last year, lending evidence to murmurs that this format may not be for them. In fact, it was this same "SFF split" theory in which Knuckles's supporters were banking on that proved to be his undoing. In a match against Mega Man and Yoshi (a match many expected Knuckles to win due to a perceived significant SFF relationship between Mega and tha Yosh), the echidna tanked hard, finishing 8% behind Yoshi. He finished with 20%, and I actually expect a very similar performance this time around. Yes, Yoshi may be better
suited for this format than Zelda, but Mario is a stronger adversary than Mega Man.

Based on her performances last year, it's pretty clear that Zelda is more at home in a traditional 1v1 environment. However, I still believe she can pull this one out. We've never seen her challenge Mario (or any Mario character, for that matter) before, so we're not exactly sure how she'll hold up. She'll get a beating, surely, but so will Knuckles, and that's the key. In the end, I think Zelda will use her superior intrinsic strength and alpha-Nintendo-series backing to punch her way through, securing a less crappy result than Knuckles. Retire the Sonic characters from this format, I say!

Fei Fong Wong - 12%
Knuckles the Echidna - 20%
Mario - 45%
Zelda - 23%

Lopen’s Analysis

Oh, Knuckles... how sad to see your traditions die. Three years ago, the bracket went on its way without any round 2 echidna burgers for Snake in sight. (Squall I'm sure had no problem eating Snake's share, but whatever) Now this year, the second tradition dies... Knuckles goes out in round 1.

The harbringer of this traditional destruction will not be Fei "starting a Chinese restaurant with the same name" Fong Wong, but we all know that. I think Fei might surprise... Xenogears did beat "teh Pokemanz" a few years ago in the game contest. He's also got the Wii Fit vote, sporting the superior fitness out of this group. Homeboy probably won't be a total pushover, shame he got wasted in this match. Heck, there's a very small chance that he's stronger than KOS-MOS... but unfortunately even she would lose soundly here... unless you think Mario SFFs Knux and Zelda a ridiculous amount, or that Sonic team and Zelda are very weak in the format, or.... anyway.

So what, you're saying "if not Fei, who... Zelda? The one who is going to get SFFed by Mario?" Yeah, that's what I'm saying... except... I'm not saying that, because Zelda should get out mostly unscathed SFFwise. I mean, she held up against Mega Man like a champ a few years ago. Meanwhile, Yoshi, who didn't hold up so well against Mega Man a few years ago, beat the crap out of Knux last year while being "held back" by a Mega Man who should've SFFed him from what 1v1 results tell ya.

Point is, Mario, despite being the King of SFF, will not hurt Zelda enough for Knux to pass. Look for Knuckles to disappoint just like Shadow did earlier in the contest. Heck, Mario will probably hurt Knux more here. Now there's always a chance Zelda just doesn't do well in this format, she didn't exactly look good last year... but... neither did Knuckles. If Zelda flops, expect Fei to advance, not Knux... you heard it here first!

Lopen's Prediction:
Mario – 42.12%
Zelda – 23.88%
Fei "Fitness Guru" Fong Wong – 17.18%
Knuckles – 16.82%
Master Moltar | Posted 9/23/2008 9:20:00 PM | message detail | #321
Transience’s Analysis

this match is awessome from a stat perspective. here we've got three guys with loads of data, and a newcomer that I nominated for five years in a row only to make it the one year I didn't nom him. Fei is about five years past being able to do anything in these contests, but it's cool to finally see him make it.

the real match today is Zelda vs. Knuckles. Knuckles is the Guru fave, and you can see why - it's Zelda and Mario. seriously, who votes for Zelda over an icon like Mario? Zelda is such a leech, she lost to Bidoof when paired with Link. (Heroic Mario probably mentions this three times in his writeup) who the hell votes for Zelda?

and the answer is... a lot of people. Zelda's had two matches with well-known Nintendo icons -- well, Mega Man is like Nintendo-lite, but we've seen him overlap before:

Samus Aran 55.27% 72890
Zelda 44.73% 58985

Zelda 39.25% 42329
Mega Man 60.75% 65528

compare Zelda's performance with another Nintendo guy, Yoshi:

Mega Man 68.08% 63395
Yoshi 31.92% 29719

and let's not forget what Yoshi did to Knuckles despite Mega Man being in the same poll:

Yoshi 28.24% 35438
Knuckles the Echidna 20.27% 25442
Mega Man 37.73% 47353
KOS-MOS 13.75% 17261

add in that Shadow lost to friggin' Zidane last week and there's no real reason to back Knuckles here. the only way to support that upset is if you think Link significantly hurt him.. but then there's Mario in this poll who will do the same thing. I expect Mario to really clean up this poll. Shadow put up 45% on Mario, but that was five years ago. I'm going to assume that was a complete fluke that probably won't happen again. Zelda's going to need to get SFF'd much worse than she ever has to drop this match. possible, but unlikely.

Sonic Team's bombing
Nintendrones will vote Zelda
Mario cleans up

transience's prediction: Mario with 52.12%, Zelda with 20.78%, Knuckles with 17.21%, Fei with 9.89%

Ngamer’s Analysis

After two fairly standard results in a row, you just know that the bracket must have another surprise in store soon. Today should be a great opportunity to see just that- from the moment the bracket was released this was one of the polls that drew the most attention, and even weeks later we've yet to draw any true consensus. 111 Gurus picked Knuckles, but on the other hand a full 100 went with Zelda... a ton of brackets will be taking a hit here, but which ones? WHICH?

Maybe the numbers can help us decide!

Last Known Values
Mario - 42.07% (2007)
Zelda - 30.74% (2007)
Knuckles - 27.41% (2007)
Fei Fong Wong - new

First off, let's assign Fei a 15ish or something so we can forget he exists. The guy's far from the worst character to have made the bracket, but the rest of this poll is just too interesting to dwell on his presence. Mario really impressed me last season- he held up much better than expected against Link, and even managed to look fairly decent against Sephiroth, despite Fox being there to hold him back by over 5%. Obviously he won't need to show up at his full 42 pecent strength tonight to walk away with a win, but how strong he is SHOULD have a pretty big impact on the end result regardless. That's because...
Master Moltar | Posted 9/23/2008 9:20:19 PM | message detail | #322
Zelda disappointed pretty badly in '07. She came in hot off a great showing on Samus back in 2006 and should have been performing at peak strength, what with TP recently released and Brawl hype continuing to mount. That why many people, myself included, went out on a limb and took her to upset Vincent in the first round- boy did that backfire! What she proved instead was that plenty of her support comes from her name and her Nintendo flagship affiliation, and when you give people other options they'll abondon her at a moment's notice. And then the second round proved that she gets in especially big trouble as soon as you introduce someone higher on the N totem pole into her group. Which should make the second place result in this one obvious here, right? But wait a minute!

To be frank, Knuckles didn't exactly set the world on fire last Summer either. Despite having no excuse to not perform at full strength in R1, he was never in contention against Yoshi and furthermore would almost certainly have been knocked out of the Contest by Rikku if not for Vaan holding her back. Seriously, Rikku? That's pretty embarrassing for a guy who only a couple years before had nearly gone toe to toe with Squall! Clearly Sonic Team loses a step when moving to the four way format. When you add to that how badly Link destroyed Shadow just a few days back, it seems hard to deny that Mario's going to be holding Knuckles down in this one. But will he be able to hurt Knux more than he does Zelda?

My answer there is... no, Zelda probably gets hurt a little worse. Forunately, she's also a little bit stronger naturally; I'm banking on that slight advantage being enough to see her through in what should be the closest 2/3 result of the season so far! I don't do so with a ton of confidence, but heck, this one is basically a coin flip in my eyes, and when it comes down to a coin flip you never bet on Tails. ...or Shadow. Or Knuckles.

Let's throw these all into the pot, flip in a few coins, stir well, and...

Mario - 41.66%
Zelda - 23.11%
Knuckles the Echidna - 22.32%
Fei Fong Wong - 12.91%

Looks tasty!

Ngamer Says: Mario > Zelda

Guest’s Analysis - Gaddswell

Hey, paesanos! It's The Super Mario Brothers Super Show!

This time around, we got Mario Mario, the gaming legend himself, stepping up to the contest poll! Along with him we have Knuckles the Echidna of Sonic fame, Princess Zelda, the namesake of the Zelda series, and Fei Fong Wong from Xenogears.

First, let's get Mr Mario out of the way! He's taking first here and the reason for that should be obvious!
Next, let's take Fei out of the running. Xenogears simply came out too long ago for it to matter much here and he's up against 3 well known characters.

The real match is between Zelda and Knuckles for second. In a 1 vs 1 match, Zelda would be the favourite here, but Mario's around to throw a wrench in things. In these contests, Zelda's primary souce of strength happens to be the fact that her name is Zelda, which gets her votes from the Zelda fanatics. With Mario around to take the majority of the Nintendo vote, this question arises: can Zelda get a large enough chunck of the Nintendo vote to push on through? Will there be enough Zelda-dedicated fans who would vote for her over Mario, or will we see Mario suck her dry like Link did last year?
Master Moltar | Posted 9/23/2008 9:21:14 PM | message detail | #323
Knuckles too, isn't in the clear. Sonic team preforms terribly in the four way format and chances are good that we could be seeing him sucked dry by Mario too, due to the big overlap between Sega and Nintendo fans. We already saw this SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) happen earlier this year when Link brutalized Shadow into allowing Zidane through, and last year when Knuckles himself got mauled by Yoshi. For Knuckles, the question is: can he stand up better against Mario than Zelda and will the fact that he's from the Sonic franchise help him any against Mario?

For me, I'm going with Zelda here. While she didn't look great against Vincent in round 1 of last year, she still managed to blow out The Boss and Tails (another Sonic character!). Zelda has also done fine against Samus and Mega Man (another guy with big Nintendo overlap) and the two of them are noble niners (though granted, the Mega Man match was back in 2k3!)! Add to that last year, we saw Ganon (who we've seen get murdered by Link before too) hold his own against Luigi. Granted, Mario's much stronger than any of these other guys, but on this site Zelda > Mario series wise so she might not suffer too badly at all and she's held up fine against strong competition not named Link so far. As for Knuckles, simply having Yoshi in the poll almost cost him his round one match against Rikku with Vaan (a fodder level character) holding her down! Now replace Yoshi with Mario, and he's gonna suffer

even more. He's not suffer as much as the weaker Shadow did against Link, but if Yoshi was able to bring the hurt, Mario certainly will.

tl;dr: Zelda > Mario > Sonic series wise so Zelda holds up to Mario SFF better.

Gaddswell Predicts
Bracket: Mario > Zelda
Fei Fong Wong - 12.68%
Knuckles the Echidna - 19.18%
Mario - 44.83%
Zelda - 23.31%

Crew Consensus: Mario > Zelda is the majority, though Mario > Knuckles is favored by a couple members.
Justin_Crossing | Posted 9/23/2008 9:23:42 PM | message detail | #324
I can't decide between Knuckles and Zelda right now >_>

That's why I'm voting Knuckles.
Justin's CB Points: 16 | Points After this Round: 20
Today: Bowser > Phoenix | Tomorrow: Mario > Knuckles
DpObliVion | Posted 9/23/2008 9:55:24 PM | message detail | #325
DpOblivion's Unofficial Analysis:

I'm a big Sonic fanboy, and Knuckles seems like a decent enough pick here, and the Guru even favors Knuckles at a close 52-47%. But I had to stick with my gut and ignore bias here and go with Zelda to take 2nd.

Most people predicting Knuckles are probably relying on Mario beating Zelda quite heavily with SFF, as we've seen her suffer before with Link. But this is completely different. There's virtually no reason to vote for Zelda over Link. But, this is not LoZ vs. LoZ, this is LoZ vs. Mario. Fans of both would probably tend to prefer LoZ, and while Princess Zelda may not be that great of a character like Link, Mario is certainly one who is susceptible to losing votes within a fanbase. A lot of people like Mario, but who loves him?

I'm not saying Zelda will rSFF Mario into a victory, or even close to it, but I am still fairly certain that she can ride the popularity of LoZ over Knuckles, even with Mario in the poll. This would be a no-doubter if it was Zelda vs. Knuckles 1-on-1. Add in that Mario could just as well take votes from Knuckles, too, and I certainly see this one falling towards Zelda.

Mario - 42%
Zelda - 26%
Knuckles - 20%
Fei - 12%

Character Battle VII *PRINTABLE BRACKET* - Look in my profile for links. GO SONIC
RaeSaraneth | Posted 9/23/2008 10:14:08 PM | message detail | #326
I've got to stick with my Nintendo/Zelda fangirlism here, and say Mario>Zelda. I was pretty confident about picking that one on my bracket, but then again a lot of these matches have ended up not quite as we'd expected. I'm pretty sure she'll only stay a little blue sliver ahead, if she does take second. Good luck :D
DpObliVion | Posted 9/23/2008 10:17:00 PM | message detail | #327
Oh yeah, forgot to say my bracket and prediction is Mario > Zelda, but that's kinda obvious.

Anyway, it always makes me feel good to see that I'm on the same side that the Crew is leaning heavily towards on a match that is much closer in Guru (scared me with the first two going Knuckles, but then the rest went Zelda). This is where the Crew earns its distinction, and it gives me even more confidence going into the match.

And hell yeah, Ngamer....I always bet on heads in a coin toss.

Though it does make me sad to be going against a Sonic character in a very winnable match. And it would really drive me crazy if I went against him and he still won. But I expect to move on with another 4 points.

Character Battle VII *PRINTABLE BRACKET* - Look in my profile for links. GO SONIC
trannyscience | Posted 9/23/2008 10:25:45 PM | message detail | #328
trying to jinx us, eh?
DpObliVion | Posted 9/23/2008 10:43:06 PM | message detail | #329

Character Battle VII *PRINTABLE BRACKET* - Look in my profile for links. GO SONIC
Tatl | Posted 9/23/2008 10:57:20 PM | message detail | #330
Even with Mario in the bracket, I can't see Zelda losing to Knuckles...

Not saying that she'll blow him away, probably will be close, but Zelda will emurge victorious in the end.
Smash Brawl Code: 5370-0384-1628 -- Tag: Lupe
Main: Lucas --- Secondaries: Pikachu, Luigi, R.O.B., and Ivysaur --- Recent Interest: Sheik...NINJA POWER!
RaeSaraneth | Posted 9/23/2008 11:22:40 PM | message detail | #331
Actually, looking at it now, it may be less close than I thought :P
vcharon | Posted 9/24/2008 1:12:43 AM | message detail | #332
RIP Sega, officially. Stupid ass characters ruining my brackets!!
transience | Posted 9/24/2008 4:01:09 AM | message detail | #333
whoo crew looks safe

division 2 > division 1! but man, Mario is sucking.
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
satai_delenn | Posted 9/24/2008 4:10:05 AM | message detail | #334
Knock, knock, it's Knuckles, the blow-thrower ; Independent flow-er, magical Emerald holder; Give you the coldest shoulder, my spike goes through boulders; That's why I stay a loner

Best analysis intro ever.

Unlike Sonic, he doesn't chuckle.
Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE!
DpObliVion | Posted 9/24/2008 7:26:16 AM | message detail | #335
Whoo Crew! And wow, my percentages are actually close, for once!

Character Battle VII *PRINTABLE BRACKET* - Look in my profile for links. GO SONIC
Master Moltar | Posted 9/24/2008 9:38:24 AM | message detail | #336
Bowser................45.11% 58067
Deckard Cain.....14.46% 18611
Geno....................16.52% 21271
Phoenix Wright...23.91% 30776
TOTAL VOTES.................128725

What Happened - Bowser started off the match slow, while the others started off strong. As the match went on though, Bowser started to tear through everyone else. Then again, that's what happens when you put Bowser against 3 people with great early votes but fall off later. Bowser ends up looking decent over 45%, and Phoenix almost ends with what he did last year in Round 1.

Why it Happened - There's nothing too surprising here. Of course, Bowser is strong, but 50% is still hard for any non-Noble Nine character to reach. Phoenix held up well against a stronger group, meaning that he could have increased a bit from last year. Geno and Deckard do about as expected.

What Will Happen - Luigi/Liquid/Bowser looks more up in the air than ever before. Bowser's performance was good enough to not make him an after-thought in the match.

Crew Prediction Challenge - Yay everyone

HM - 3
Guest (KP, Leon, Ed) - 3
Moltar - 2
Yoblazer - 2
Lopen - 2
Tran - 2
Ngamer - 2

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Yo gets the point for Bowser and Phoenix, Moltar gets the point for Geno and Tran gets the point for Deckard

Yoblazer - 5
HM - 5
Tran - 4
Lopen - 4
Guest (War, KP (2)) - 3
Ngamer - 3
Moltar - 1
Moltar Status: augh
Fei/Knuckles/Mario/Zelda - Bracket: Mario > Knuckles - Vote: Knuckles (16/24)
Master Moltar | Posted 9/24/2008 6:34:27 PM | message detail | #337
Man I feel really dumb concerning this match. When I was making my bracket I checked out the parallels this match had to MM/Yoshi/Knux/KOS-MOS and for some reason completely ignored them and fell into the same trap people that Knuckles-supporters fell into last year

Heck, I even used the same flawed arguments that I argued against when I was defending MM > Yoshi > Knuckles. I messed up hard here. It's like I learned something in theory and then forgot it in practice.

sorry just needed to get that off my chest
Moltar Status: augh
Fei/Knuckles/Mario/Zelda - Bracket: Mario > Knuckles - Vote: Knuckles (16/24)
trannyscience | Posted 9/24/2008 6:37:16 PM | message detail | #338
as I said last night, it's really weird that people who usually follow the numbers off the cliff disregarded every single number in Zelda's favour here.

dammit bidoof
DpObliVion | Posted 9/24/2008 7:12:42 PM | message detail | #339
Heh, it's okay Moltar....I'm kinda feeling the same way right now, but for the quarterfinal match that will involve Link, Mario, and Mega Man X. I said Mario wasn't advancing since he'd get screwed by Link, but I didn't even think that MMX is likely to get screwed, too. I feel like I completely overlooked that in the excitement of "Link and Mario together, Mario doesn't advance!"

Although I suppose it could still happen....MMX may be affected less, but Mario of course is stronger....we'll see.

Or it could just as well be Zack advancing over both of them there. But I'm not as big of a Zack supporter as some.

Character Battle VII *PRINTABLE BRACKET* - Look in my profile for links. GO SONIC
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/24/2008 7:18:10 PM | message detail | #340
Pssh, X needs to do something special, or it'll be Link/Zack/Mario/Liquid!

....Oh god what if Liquid makes the finals?
i am false
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/24/2008 7:52:56 PM | message detail | #341
Liquid better not make the finals or else Snake's ultimate victory will look downright unimpressive!
turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
Master Moltar | Posted 9/24/2008 8:50:23 PM | message detail | #342
Division 2: Round 1 - Match 8 – Lloyd Irving vs. Mudkip vs. Tom Nook vs. Mega Man X

Moltar’s Analysis

Game/Series Known From: Tales of Symphonia
2007 Results: 3rd Place in Round 1 vs. Zero, HK-47 and Jak

Two wooden swords for twice the power, yep it’s Lloyd

Game/Series Known From: Pokemon
2007 Results: 2nd Place in Round 1 vs. Luigi, Pit and Tingle
3rd Place in Round 2 vs. Ganondorf, Luigi and Vergil


Game/Series Known From: Animal Crossing
2007 Results: 3rd Place in Round 1 vs. Marcus Fenix, Kefka and Zelos

I’m surprised AC characters still get support in these things

Mega Man X
Game/Series Known From: Mega Man X
2007 Results: N/A

Really? Really? Oh fine.

Hey look, the first match with no Brawl characters!

Seriously though that’s like the most interesting thing about this match. We’ll finally be able to get a glimpse at how MMX does. Most speculate that while he won’t be as strong as Mega Man, he’ll definitely be up there. I mean, in a fairly recent poll, the X series did beat the original MM series in favorability.

And then Mudkip for second? Dammit why is this Pokemon back anyway? It’s not as bad as Bidoof (augh), but this joke is oooold. I guess we’ll be able to see how TJF (The Joke Factor but the other one works too) goes this year, but Mudkip would probably take second just on his strength alone.

Oh, and Tom Nook has a good shot at beating another Tales character for third. Oh Tales, how about this. When you get the invite, don’t show up. Heck, I love Symphonia and even I’m tired of seeing its annual ass-kicking from other weak characters.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Mega Man X > Mudkip

Moltar’s Prediction is: MMX: 43% - Mudkip: 26% - Lloyd: 17% - Tom: 14%

Heroic Mario’s Analysis

good lord this might be the worst match i've ever seen. why the hell is mudkip back who likes this thing; is that a different variation of Mega Man i see; and we round it off with tales and animal crossing no thank you to this match

Anyway, there's not too much to talk about with this one, but a lot to keep an eye on. We'll get some idea of how MMX is going to fare, whether he's a high midcarder or hanging with Mega Man proper. There's been a lot of talk about his range, how far he's going to go, and if he can take advantage of any potential SFF in later matches to beat Mario so he's got some big expectations to fill. I think he'll end up a little below Mega Man, despite there being a poll around here that proves otherwise. I've always thought of "Mega Man" as encompassing every iteration of him, much in the same way that Link does, whether it's TP Link or WW Link. Having them separated could hurt, but who knows.

As far as Mudkip is concerned, it's an easy second. The competition here is terrible - Tales and Animal Crossing haha what - and we've seen Mudkip in action before. For reasons unknown, people like this thing, so it should be able to pull its usual 25% in this one. It could go higher, but I think there's a ceiling when it comes to something like this where you only have the same group voting for it each time.

damn these pokemon

Prediction: MMX - 45%; Mudkip - 25% ; Lloyd - 15% ; Nook - 15%
Bracket: MMX > Mudkip
Vote: no thx

Yoblazer’s Analysis

After making it through the most debated match of the division, we're in for what seems to be a breather today. In fact, I'd wager to call this the most widely agreed upon match we've had so far, and that's not without good reason. A quick glance at the characters and their performances last year is enough to figure this one out, but let's do a quick analysis, anyway.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/24/2008 8:51:06 PM | message detail | #343
Our four competitors are Lloyd Irving (Tales of Symphonia), Mudkip (Pokemon), Tom Nook (Animal Crossing), and Mega Man X (Shin Megami Tunsei Nocturne Sunflowers and Bikini Babes A Go-Go: Serious Lockdown Edition). Unless Mudkip picks up none of the initial joke support it got last year and Lloyd impresses, this match seems pretty set in stone. Mega Man X will pick up the easy win, Mudkip finishes in a distant but comfy second place, Lloyd takes third, and Tom Nook, the best damn character of the bunch, finishes last because he's more interested in ACTUALLY WORKING IN HIS STORE than stupid popularity contests. You tell these young people, Nook. No sense of hard work, I tell ya. All we really have to debate here are percentages.

X is a guy we've been clamoring for for years now, and we finally got him. His perceived strength range is wide (all the way from stronger than good ol' Mega Man to significantly weaker), but even if he crashes out on the lower end of his potential, he'll win without trouble here. Personally, I'm expecting him to be around Mega Man's level - maybe a bit weaker - so I'll predict his percentage accordingly. Interestingly, it should be noted that Mega Man X's name is fourth among this fourpack. I bring this up because the character order is always alphabetical, yet Mega Man X is fourth, under Tom Nook, implying that he may simply be called "X" for the match. Now, this probably won't have much of an effect on his overall performance, but taking the "Mega Man" out of "Mega Man X" may confuse some voters. On the other hand, there's just something about a guy called "X" that seems forking badass.

After X is Mudkip, the little Pokemon who shocked us all with his strength last year. This thing drew loads of joke support last year (enough to challenge Luigi in Round 2), and while I haven't heard much hype about it this time around, Muddy should still have the goods to outpace Lloyd on a bad day. Speaking of which, Lloyd only managed 20% on a comparatively weaker (assuming X doesn't bomb below Zero's level, which he shouldn't) quartet last year, so I'm expecting even less of him this time around, and that won't be enough to challenge Mudkip. Tom Nook, of course, will finish dead last, but he'll get my vote! He also has more money than the other three, so I ask you... who's the real winner here?

Lloyd Irving - 17%
Mudkip - 24%
Tom Nook - 12%
Mega Man X - 47%

Lopen’s Analysis

The "obvious" result in this match is MMX > Mudkip. For the simple reason that Mudkip got around 25% with Luigi and Ganondorf in the polls last year, and has that 4chan BS on his side. He's regarded as a joke entrant.. and tranny insists that the guy has a static 23-25% or something as a result.

Now, I won't disagree that a lot of the people who liek Mudkipz (oh gawd shoot me now) are indeed of the joke vote persuasion. However... between contests I've done a little inadvertent research... you see, my roommate has a little brother and the little brother has lots of little friends. Between last year and now, Pokemon became a bit of a fad amongst them. (I personally believe I spearheaded it with my purchase of Pokemon Diamond, impressionable tykes) Now, for them, the game of choice was Pokemon Ruby/Sapphire.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/24/2008 8:51:33 PM | message detail | #344
Where am I going with this? Here's where I'm going. Every damn one of them (and two of my friends who are older than eight what is this crap) were fans of the bloody Mudkip. I assume he's a starter or something, I never bothered to ask... I was too busy expressing my disgust of the matter. Now, I admit, my sample size is fairly small, not something to base a scientific study on my any means... but it's something to consider! The thing is like a poison... it's been injected into my local neighborhood with a 100% accuracy. (except for me, for as the hero I have immunity) And no, none of the ones affected are at all aware of what this "4chan" is.

So what does this mean? It means that as a partially legitimate competitor all theories of a "vote floor" for Mudkip should be disregarded. It also means that perhaps the foul creation looked better than it should've last year due to being thrown into two SFF matches without people high on the SFF pecking order. It ALSO means that King of SFF™ X MIGHT be able to drive his % down to hell.

All of this means that Lloyd Irving, with his superior knowledge of mathematics and how it relates to swordplay, will be able to CAPITALIZE on the Nintendo backlash brewing and a SC Legends boost. That's right. The best two points I've ever lost.

Lopen's prediction:
Mega Man X – 40.12%
Lloyd Irving – 23.87%
Mudkip – 19.99%
Tom Nook – 16.02%

Transience’s Analysis

today's match features an obvious first place and three guys competing for second, but the most interesting thing by far is just how good first place is. Mega Man X has been a topic of discussion for about five years now and we're finally going to see him today. there's some polls out there that show Mega Man X as the most popular incarnation of Mega Man and the most popular Mega Man series, so it's possible that X is actually stronger than Mega Man. I wouldn't count on it, though, since I imagine people vote for Mega Man with X in mind. now that we've gotten more specific, Mega Man X probably takes a small drop, but he'll still be plenty strong. he's definitely the strongest new entrant snice Vincent, and I feel that treating him as a second Mega Man is fair. it kinda sucks that we've got two Mega Mans in the bracket when they should probably be the same strength (and the same guy), but whatever.

X has a nice trump card in today's match - Mega Man 9 was just released a couple of days ago. X isn't in the game? doesn't matter, Mega Man fans will vote for him anyway. not only do we get to see X for the first time, we get to see Mega Man with his first significant release since the contest started, anniversary collections aside. I'm looking forward to seeing what X can do.

anyway, on to the real match. let's start with the two 'real' characters, Lloyd and Tom Nook. last year we got to see Zelos and Tom Nook in the same match, and Zelos bombed hard. Lloyd is probably a good bit more popular than Zelos, but given how the Talesbase has responded to their guys so far I wouldn't be surprised if Nook did beat him out here. Symphonia's a different beast from Abyss, though, so I'm not expecting that to happen.

the fourth character in this match is the dreadful Mudkip, one that elicits more anger than any other "character" in the bracket. Mudkip's our first joke entrant, and one to keep an eye on. last year, Mudkip mowed down Pit and Tingle and then held a big lead on Luigi in round 2 for 7 hours before he ran out of gas. Mudkip's a fluky, weird entrant that seems like it's going to get 20% in every match. Lloyd and Nook probably can't get that high.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/24/2008 8:52:13 PM | message detail | #345
if X bombs, there'll be more percentage for everyone else, and if that happens Lloyd could advance over Mudkip. it's really unlikely though since Lloyd is already pretty weak. I expect people to perceive MMX to have bombed here thanks to joke characters wrecking percentages, but that's just how joke characters roll.

Mudkip starts ahead
falls all day but still beats Tom
Nook and Lloyd Irving

transience's prediction: Mega Man X with 41.37%, Mudkip with 26.67%, Lloyd with 17.52%, Tom Nook with 14.44%

Ngamer’s Analysis

Whoops! Guess this won't be the closest #2 vs #3 result so far... or even all that close. I guess that's in line with Link hurting Shadow so badly, but at this point you've really got to start calling Sonic Team as a whole into question. I know this much- certainly feeling better about that Master Chief > Sonic upset than I was a week back!

For today we're looking at quite the intriguing matchup. That seems weird to say, given that the #1 spot isn't going to be in question at all, and neither should the #2, really. What lends this match its appeal is the long-awaited Contest debut of Mega Mega X... firstly because we've never seen him in action before and its hard to say how close to the original MM he's going to perform, and secondly because we'll be getting our first taste of how Mega Man 9 will impact this Contest. Talk about exciting! Let's see if the numbers hold any answers for us.

Last Known Values
Mega Man X - new
Mudkip - 21.53% (2007)
Lloyd - 19.97% (2007)
Tom Nook - 12.61% (2007)

Original MM looked pretty darn solid in this format last season, scoring a value of around 39 while doing even more than was expected of him, including seriously contending for the win against Samus (sure he was benefited by the sprite round, but STILL). My best guess is that MMX is going to be a touch weaker than MM in these polls. "But wait! MMX beat MM straight up in that 'what's your favorite version of Mega Man' poll a couple months back!" Well yes, he did, but we've seen how far you can trust favorite character in the series polls as they relate to real Contest strength, and MMX > MM feels like one of those Yoshi > Mario situations to me. Still, it should be fairly close. What really has me pumped is to see what kind of impact MM9 is going to have here- with the Wii release on Monday and the PS3 and 360 versions also arriving this week, you couldn't have asked for a better time for the game to drop. People seem to be genuinely excited about the Mega Man series for the first time in many years, and IMO that's bound to do wonders for everything connected to the games, including MMX and Zero. But we'll see if I'm right about that.

What else do we have going on... oh, there's Mudkip. Even though I don't like Mudkipz, I've got to give the guy some credit, as he held up remarkably well against Luigi and some other decent Nintendo competition last time around. I doubt the fad has died off much, so he might even look better than the 22 value he posted in '07 for this one. But golly, I certainly hope not!

Lloyd is just... ew. Couldn't we please just use Kratos A as the pinnacle of what Tales is worth in these polls and stop noming everyone else? Actually I could see Mudkip starting fadilly strong before losing ground to Lloyd overnight. Then Lloyd would get all our hopes up like he did last season before allowing Mudkip to easily skate away from him with the ASV, just like HK-47 did. Ugh. Oh and I guess Tom Nook is involved in this as well. Hate to break it to the little guy, but last year was probably about the best performance he could have expected... with Mudkip in the way to steal his Nintendo joke fans, and other decent Nintendo options also present, he could very well have trouble being worth more than 10% in these stats when all is said and done.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/24/2008 8:53:42 PM | message detail | #346
Sooo, factoring what should be a good MM showing with what we saw from these last time, it shouldn't take more than a few minutes of stirring the pot to find:

Mega Man X - 48.14%
Mudkip - 24.08%
Lloyd Irving - 18.42%
Tom Nook - 9.36%

Yes sir... Realistically, that looks pretty good. Would be so pleased to see MMX perform way above that and Mudkip way below, though!

Ngamer Says: Mega Man X > Mudkip

Guest’s Analysis - GrapefruitKing

Oh, nice. Here's a match in which the upset potential is very low.
... I think
I remember the first time I looked at this match:
"Ooh, MMX, that's new..." "Tom Nook is getting 4th place..." "hmmm.. Lloyd vs. Mudkip... this will be close."

Don't worry, my opinion has changed a lot since then. I like to think of Lloyd as the new Kefka in these contests. He has NEVER put out a satisfying performance in any match. He was probably the most disappointing newcomer in 2k5, and he lost last year to HK-47 in a four-way, and barely edged-out Jak. Ouch. I think people keep nominating Lloyd to ridicule him, and it works.

Mudkip came out of freaking nowhere last year and showed that joke or not, any pokemon character can have decent strength. His match against Luigi and G-Dorf last year in which he actually lead for some time will be remembered as one of the creepiest matches in recent contest history along with "IT'S A FREAKIN' HAND". Now I have to admit that last year he probably benefitted from even more support in Round 2, when people realised he could shake down things in the contest. But I'm pretty sure he won't even go near MMX in this match.
Speaking of which, I've seen some people say that MMX would be considerably weaker than original Mega Man. Let me tell you: these people are on crack, or strong medicine. Prior to this contest, the casuals who sometimes go to GFAQs probably didn't even know that Mega Man and MMX are two different characters. Hell, I didn't know before posting on the boards. And since they look very similar, MMX will be as strong, if not slightly more than the original. Remember: he has an X in his name. Ooh. And all this talk about Mega Man 9 this week can't hurt even though he's not in it.

All that's left is Tom Nook which, I have to admit, would be a lot lower in my prediction if we hadn't seem him last year. Now, he did look pretty weak, and was doubled by Marcus Fenix. But I (and most people) expected him to perform like ****, considering the fact that he couldn't break 15% against Crono in 2k3. Overall his performance was OK and promoted him from low-fodder to mid-fodder. Congrats! P.S. he beat Zelos by 7500 votes. and I wish he could do the same to Lloyd. hahaha Zelos you suck.

Overall, MMX wins big time, and Mudkip gets a better percentage than Lucario did, lol
What this write-up lacks is structure. But who reads these anyway, you guys only look at the percentages.

GrapefruitKing's amazingly accurate prediction
Mega Man X 41.70%
Mudkip 24.24%
Lloyd Irving 19.98%
Tom Nook 14.08%

Crew Consensus: MMX > Mudkip is favored, but MMX > Lloyd = Lopen upset special
NotTerrafire | Posted 9/24/2008 9:00:15 PM | message detail | #347
Mudkip > Lloyd believe.
Lopen | Posted 9/24/2008 9:01:51 PM | message detail | #348
Hey man, Lloyd Irving is high fodder that probably beats half the field. I agree that other Tales characters not named Kratos need to stay away but he's not so bad that he deserves this dissing from the crew, dammit!

... as for this match. It's not even really my upset special as my bracket says otherwise. Not sure whether I was trying to convince myself that Lloyd could win or explaining why I thought he would win, but this so called Nintendo backlash said to me "go for it"

Two games means twice the power, right? Let's do this Lloyd.
Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/24/2008 9:02:15 PM | message detail | #349
Damnit Lopen, by picking MMX > Lloyd, you ruining his chances!
i am false
Lopen | Posted 9/24/2008 9:03:51 PM | message detail | #350
Technically the crew still loses if Lloyd wins. It's all good, man. HM picked two of our losses remember?
Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe