GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VII Contest Analysis Crew
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/21/2008 8:41:27 PM | message detail | #251 |
|
I think this result may largely depend on which Liquid Snake decides to
actually show up, but I'm hopeful we'll get the real deal. He stands
out as the only mature option among a trio of goofballs, he'll have a
possible Metal Gear Solid 4 boost on his side (which will be
interesting to watch, as he's the first MGS character we'll see perform
this year), and he may benefit from a possible, albeit very tiny,
fanbase split between Roxas and Sho. Kingdom Hearts may indeed make
things close, but when the result is uncertain, Metal Gear Solid is
always a wise bet. Liquid Snake - 28% Luigi - 38% Roxas - 24% Sho Minamimoto - 10% Lopen’s Analysis Ha ha ha... hey, what a division 1, eh? Well, if you've followed my illustrious career I make a living off of falling behind in points early. That abomination of a division just made it a hell of a lot easier. Hmmm, alright, let's try to start that comeback here... what have we for this match? My sources tell me that Sho is likely to get the geometry vote... that's right, right? Now, I don't think that he'll be terribly weak... TWEWY reminds me of Tales of Symphonia (no I've not played the game, just the fanbase) somehow, so I think its characters will fall around there. But uh... yeah... the geometry vote is his only chance. However, if we're taking sines or cosines of angles with respect to Sho, that makes Luigi the opposite character, Roxas the adjacent, and Liquid!! that rebellious hypotenuse. Now, I've always found the hypotenuse to be the most badass triangle edge component... I think most math people will agree. So yeah, Sho's getting geoSFFed by Liquid!! game over. ... what? Well, looking at the history Luigi is way above Liquid!!, geometry vote or not. So it becomes Liquid!! vs Roxas for second place. Looking at what a crutch Roxas was to Riku last year it should be pretty clear that Roxas isn't a total pushover here. I ain't takin him, but, you could... maybe. But I mean, thinking about it... Roxas, no matter how rough and tough you think the kid is, probably is not stronger than pre KH2 Riku, logically, from a 0 stats perspective. Liquid!! would probably beat pre KH2 Riku, ergo you can feel pretty safe about this one. Plus Mr. SOHCAHTOA certainly can't help his chances. And finally, MGS4 should give Liquid !! a decent little boost Lopen's prediction: Luigi – 33.33% Liquid !! - 28.24% Roxas – 21.24% Sho Minaminimoto (I typed this from memory let's see how close I got) – 17.19% Transience’s Analysis finally, a chance to exhale. division 1 was a pathetic landfill of fodder parity, where the good characters were only marginally better than the bad ones. and with that came unpredictability. division 2 looks to be a lot more stable, and we're going to have a few days here to relax. sometimes an expected match can be fun because you have solid expectations and can really track how good the performances are based on that. well, I hope so anyway. on the top, you've got Luigi, a character who improves each year and has gone from being the ultimate average entrant to a really solid high-tier midcarder. Luigi's head and shoulders above the rest of this group and should take first easily. at the bottom, you have board 8 fave Sho Misomethingorotheroto. he'll get last. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/21/2008 8:42:04 PM | message detail | #252 |
| in the middle, you've got Liquid Snake and Roxas.
Liquid Snake is pretty obviously stronger than Roxas - you could argue
Liquid Snake being at Riku's level thanks to MGS4 and Riku beat Roxas
down pretty good. not many good brackets are going to pick Roxas.
there's something about him that unnerves me, though -- namely, his
picture. if Zack is a Black Cloud, Roxas is a Blonde Sora. I know it
shouldn't scare me, but it always makes me pause whenever I see a match
picture with Roxas in it. that said, Liquid really shouldn't have any
problem dispatching this dude, and Solid Snake did have that one epic
beatdown of Sora in 2005, picture or not. this seems like the ultimate
40/30/20/10 match, the most predictable and least exciting kind. one last note -- if there's anything that overlaps with The World Ends With You, it's Kingdom Hearts. both games reek of Tetsuya Nomura character designs. both games are huge in those creepy deviantart circles. fans of TWEWY tend to like KH. I expect Sho to drag Roxas down a bit here, making his slim chances even worse. Roxas, Sora clone BROTHER, THEY'RE COPYING US! who votes Roxas, geeze transience's prediction: Luigi with 41.45%, Liquid Snake with 28.32%, Roxas with 21.87%, Sho with 8.36% Ngamer’s Analysis Well now, that was just an old-fashioned kick in the face. The Zack win I could see, Zidane was weird but I could at least blame Link, Duke was crazy but I guess you should never trust Kefka. But Lucario, being this weak, after everything we saw from Mewtwo and Pikachu and even Bidoof for crap's sake? I'm still reeling. Anyways, time for us to finally call one match right! I'm sounding like a broken record I realize, but I REALLY think we should be able to nail this one. Let's look closer... Last Known Values Luigi - 29.78% (2007) Liquid Snake - 21.08% (2007) Roxas - 17.10% (2007) Sho - new After a good showing in '06, Luigi once against looked like a stud last year. He advanced ahead of Ganon (pig pic or no) and would have had a great shot at downing Dante if not for Pikachu messing things up. He's got a strong picture here, no Nintendo characters to hold him back, and has no excuse to not perform around that same 30 value. L. Snake on the other hand is something of a wildcard... if he acts like his R1 Alcuard-beating self he'll have no problem advancing, but why did he collapse so badly in his second showing? You've got to think he'll be looking more like the former than the latter though, what with MGS4 having been so well-recieved on the site. Roxas is something of an unknown as well... Riku had a nice showing as soon as KH LFF was taken out of the picture, and of course Sora held up well against Squall, so I'd imagine that 17 is something of an underestimation. But then there's a THIRD wildcard thrown into the mix as well, in the form of Sho. Considering TWEWY was developed by the same team responsible for Kingdom Hearts, and with the characters having similar anime designs, you'd have to image there's a healthy bit of fanbase overlap here. I'd expect Sho to look pretty bad as a result, so we'll probably have to wait until Neku's match to see if TWEWY is worth anything in these Contests. In summary, Roxas is probably a pretty good match for Lake, but between MGS4 and Rox getting held back a little by Sho, he should still be able to get by without too much drama. But heck, I've said this before! Throwing those numbers into the pot with a little bit of mix 'n matching gives us... Luigi - 39.75% Liquid Snake - 26.58% Roxas - 21.67% Sho Minamimoto - 11.99% Liquid seems a touch low... but with the way things have been going, Roxas is going to take him down outright, so what the hey! Ngamer Says: Luigi > Liquid Snake |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/21/2008 8:43:20 PM | message detail | #253 |
|
Guest’s Analysis - Leonhart Liquid Snake Fresh off of MGS4 (sort of…), Liquid Snake returns! This time, he doesn’t have a complicated matchup to start things off. This one is pretty clear cut…on the surface anyway. Luigi is out of his league, so first place isn’t a realistic expectation, even after Metal Gear Solid 4. I’m not certain that it will do much for him, boost-wise, since he is literally in the game in name only. He might get a general Metal Gear boost, but nothing major. He is rightfully the favorite for second place, but Liquid has folded in big matches in the past, particularly against Square characters, like Yuna last year. What will he do this time? Luigi Luigi is out to improve on his most successful contest to date. Each contest for him seems to get better than the one before, though he will have a hard time doing better than he did last year. However, as far as this match is concerned, the green plumber shouldn’t have any problem doing well in this match. He’s a step above everyone else in this fourpack, and so I look for him to impress in this one. Roxas And now, introducing our third clone (of sorts) in this match, Roxas! Seriously, that’s an odd coincidence, don’t you think? Anyway, Roxas got a tough draw last year being stuck in the same fourpack with Riku, basically giving him no chance of advancing. He handled the LFF fairly well and didn’t get destroyed, which is a plus. This year, Roxas will have very little (if nothing) holding him back from performing up to his full potential. Most people have him pegged at third place, but I think he’s got a great shot at Liquid Snake. Remember, the MGS villain isn’t much more than a low midcarder, and we don’t really know where Roxas stands due to last year. I think he’s stronger than Axel (who went even with Frog, who went even with Liquid at one point), so I don’t think the strength disparity should be much different. We’ll see though. Sho Minamimoto These lame hectopascals are out of their vector here! Minamimoto will add them to the pile! CRUNCH! These other three guys are so zetta slow! Pi-Face will achieve perfection here by erasing these zetta garbage competitors! Sho Overcoming Hectopascals Can’t Actually Happen Two Others Advance Liquid Snake – 27.33% Luigi – 39.44% Roxas – 23.91% Sho Minamimoto – 3.14159% (Real prediction: 9.32%) Crew Consensus: Well, everyone here has Luigi > Liquid except for...HM...wait HM has a Metal Gear character losing? Look what you've done to us, Crewfear! |
| DpObliVion | Posted 9/21/2008 8:52:11 PM | message detail | #254 |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| DpObliVion | Posted 9/21/2008 8:53:32 PM | message detail | #255 |
|
DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis: I'm calling it right now, Luigi > Roxas! My basis for this prediction? This is the tournament of upsets! Okay, seriously though....the MGS villain, fresh off the hot MGS4, should be able to take it. Then again, a Sora-related KH character could do pretty good, so once again, I won't be surprised if the upset happens. I'm gonna stick with Liquid in confidence though. Or, at least, as much confidence as one could have with a bracket that hasn't gotten a 4 point match yet.... As for Sho....TWEWY can't be more popular than Tales of the Abyss, can it? Especially with arguable SFF from Roxas? Dp's bracket says: Luigi > Liquid Snake Dp's prediction is: Luigi > Liquid Snake Luigi - 42% Liquid - 29% Roxas - 23% Sho - 6% --- NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!! Character Battle VII *PRINTABLE BRACKET* - Look in my profile for links. GO SONIC |
| Lopen | Posted 9/21/2008 8:59:59 PM | message detail | #256 |
|
Wow, the crew has Sho abysmally low. I suppose the comparison with
Tales of the Abyss potentially makes some sense, but I'm thinking that
it'll benefit much like ToS did due to a drought of good RPGs on the
DS. And HM did you pick Roxas in your bracket? Didn't you have Liquid getting through R2 over Bowser and Luigi? You yourself hardly even sounded convinced as much "hey crew is gonna be wrong suck it guys" --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| DpObliVion | Posted 9/21/2008 9:04:10 PM | message detail | #257 |
|
Whoo hypotenuse. --- NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!! Character Battle VII *PRINTABLE BRACKET* - Look in my profile for links. GO SONIC |
| Undeniable | Posted 9/21/2008 9:15:19 PM | message detail | #258 |
|
Sho Mina - Mi - Moto Not hard. --- " Let history decide if my actions were good or bad. For now we must simply forge ahead!" - Albert Simon |
| Justin_Crossing | Posted 9/21/2008 9:16:33 PM | message detail | #259 |
|
Roxas doesn't have the power to pull an upset against an MGS villain that won't be SFFed in the slightest in this match. So pretty much that's the basis of the match. --- Justin's CB Points: 8 | Points After this Round: 12 Today: Altair > Lucario | Tomorrow: Luigi > Liquid |
| transience | Posted 9/21/2008 9:17:18 PM | message detail | #260 |
|
it's all about picking against us to look smart if it happens and laugh if it doesn't --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| Lopen | Posted 9/21/2008 9:17:34 PM | message detail | #261 |
|
It is if you've never played the game and only glanced at the name in
the bracket once or twice. Since I wrote the analysis I've learned to
correctly remember the name but yeah. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Biolizard28 | Posted 9/21/2008 9:18:07 PM | message detail | #262 |
|
Luigi > Sho confirmed --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7315/ocelotpartycd1.gif |
| Undeniable | Posted 9/21/2008 9:19:57 PM | message detail | #263 |
|
Then people should play it, its easily the best and most original thing
Square has done in recent memory. (Not saying much, but..) --- " Let history decide if my actions were good or bad. For now we must simply forge ahead!" - Albert Simon |
| Lopen | Posted 9/21/2008 9:26:13 PM | message detail | #264 |
|
Disclaimer: I meant no offense towards TWEWY or its fans with my
ridiculousness of an argument for Sho or by butchering his name, unlike
certain other fodder like Guybrush. I intend to play the game, and in
fact, you should all love my write-up the most as I gave Sho a whole
paragraph and the highest prediction. Thank you. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/21/2008 9:26:43 PM | message detail | #265 |
|
Hmmm, alright, let's try to start that comeback here... what have we
for this match? My sources tell me that Sho is likely to get the
geometry vote... that's right, right? Now, I don't think that he'll be
terribly weak... TWEWY reminds me of Tales of Symphonia (no I've not
played the game, just the fanbase) somehow, so I think its characters
will fall around there. But uh... yeah... the geometry vote is his only
chance. However, if we're taking sines or cosines of angles with
respect to Sho, that makes Luigi the opposite character, Roxas the
adjacent, and Liquid!! that rebellious hypotenuse. Now, I've always
found the hypotenuse to be the most badass triangle edge component... I
think most math people will agree. So yeah, Sho's getting geoSFFed by
Liquid!! game over. Wow, I like that idea so I looked into it more. Here's what I came up with: Side A = Sho's expected percentage + Roxas's expected percentage Side B = Liquid Snake's expected percentage Side C = Luigi's expected percentage (9.68 + 21.18)^2 + 27.68^2 = 41.46 41.46 is a close approximation, it actually came out to be exactly 41.45506 (which I rounded up). So my final prediction will be this: Liquid Snake - 27.68% Luigi - 41.46% Roxas - 21.18% Sho Minamimoto - 9.68% All 4 predictions above add up to exactly 100%. --- Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ |
| LOZLTTP | Posted 9/21/2008 9:32:09 PM | message detail | #266 |
|
Oh God now Luigi's gonna lose. Thanks a lot Analysis Crew. --- I am discounting reports of UFOs. Why would they appear only to cranks and weirdos? -- Stephen Hawking |
| Lopen | Posted 9/21/2008 9:32:44 PM | message detail | #267 |
|
Hmmm, well if we were directly plugging %s into sides and using the
ideas of triangles... it's true Luigi would be the hypotenuse, rather
than Liquid. Although one could say that Liquid + Sho = the hypotenuse,
using my write-up, hence increasing SFF potential between Liquid and
Sho. Yeap... no contradiction there! Anyway, regardless, it's good to see that people are putting my expert analysis skills to use in their own endeavors! Kudos to you, o Lustrous Soldier. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/21/2008 9:34:29 PM | message detail | #268 |
|
Anyway, regardless, it's good to see that people are putting my
expert analysis skills to use in their own endeavors! Kudos to you, o
Lustrous Soldier. I hope a get a good Oracle prediction from the calculations done earlier. --- Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ |
| transience | Posted 9/21/2008 9:36:13 PM | message detail | #269 |
|
without Luster, we'd be nowhere. --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| ZFS | Posted 9/21/2008 9:40:03 PM | message detail | #270 |
|
well there's the sweep roxas' got this --- let's mosey |
| ZFS | Posted 9/21/2008 9:41:17 PM | message detail | #271 |
|
And HM did you pick Roxas in your bracket? Didn't you have Liquid getting through R2 over Bowser and Luigi? Got Liquid today, but I backed off of him in round 2. --- let's mosey |
| Gaddswell | Posted 9/21/2008 9:53:11 PM | message detail | #272 |
|
C'mon Roxas! Add this match to the heap! --- http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg |
| Lopen | Posted 9/21/2008 10:02:16 PM | message detail | #273 |
|
I found your interpretations of my analysis to be worth looking into as
well. However, your application did not entirely follow through with my
view on the match, hence where I come in: Now, using the idea that the percents will indeed literally fall in the pattern of a properly formed triangle, but instead with Liquid Snake + Sho being the hypotenuse rather than Luigi... Luigi = 36.33% Roxas = 21.47% Liquid Snake + Sho = 42.20% Taking expectations for Liquid of 28.24% as my analysis said... Luigi = 36.33% Liquid Snake = 28.24% Roxas = 21.47% Sho = 13.96% Which add up to 100%. This is now my Oracle prediction... may the best predictor win...! --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/21/2008 10:16:39 PM | message detail | #274 |
|
Now, using the idea that the percents will indeed literally fall in
the pattern of a properly formed triangle, but instead with Liquid
Snake + Sho being the hypotenuse rather than Luigi... Liquid Snake + Sho combined is just slightly higher than what I got for Luigi. I chose Roxas + Sho for one of the shorter sides because of the slight fanbase overlap (as tranny pointed out). Which add up to 100%. This is now my Oracle prediction... may the best predictor win...! Your predictions on Liquid Snake and Roxas are very close to mine, although you have chosen to go lower on Luigi and higher on Sho than I did. I think Sho is going to do pretty badly, due to a slight fanbase overlap with Roxas. As for Luigi, I'm thinking he'll benefit from the morning and day vote greatly just as Lucario and Marth did in the past 2 days. --- Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/21/2008 11:05:50 PM | message detail | #275 |
|
yeahhhh who got a match right time to gloat over calling an easy match The Crew has returned!! --- Moltar Status: augh Liquid/Luigi/Roxas/Sho - Bracket: Luigi > Liquid - Vote: Liquid (8/16) |
| transience | Posted 9/21/2008 11:07:37 PM | message detail | #276 |
|
YEAHHHH WHO WANTS SOME O'DOYLE RULES --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| Tatl | Posted 9/22/2008 12:05:39 AM | message detail | #277 |
|
Go super Weegee! --- Smash Brawl Code: 5370-0384-1628 -- Tag: Lupe Main: Lucas --- Secondaries: Pikachu, Luigi, R.O.B., and Ivysaur --- Recent Interest: Sheik...NINJA POWER! |
| Justin_Crossing | Posted 9/22/2008 12:06:27 AM | message detail | #278 |
|
I'm surprised at Liquid, but he'll lose plenty of votes to Roxas and Luigi during the day. --- Justin's CB Points: 12 | Points After this Round: 16 Today: Luigi > Liquid | Tomorrow: Bowser > Phoenix |
| vcharon | Posted 9/22/2008 5:00:35 AM | message detail | #279 |
|
Congrats guys... though Roxas has vastly been overestimated and Liquid seems like he has some newfound power. --- :> |
| The Real Truth | Posted 9/22/2008 5:14:45 AM | message detail | #280 |
|
Liquid surprising right now. Luigi should gain in the day but who knows. Look for Cain to sneak away with second place. --- GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site. -CJayC |
| The Real Truth | Posted 9/22/2008 5:15:43 AM | message detail | #281 |
|
I have Liquid making it to round 3 but even with the SFF, he can't make
it through a wall of Nintendo and MMX. I don't think anyway. --- GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site. -CJayC |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/22/2008 10:53:54 AM | message detail | #282 |
|
Altair........................................43.1% 61439 Guybrush Threepwood.......13.78% 19639 Isaac.....................................20.92% 29815 Lucario.................................22.21% 31653 TOTAL VOTES...............................142546 What Happened - Well, Lucario started strong, but once the first minute passed, Altair took off and never looked back. Meanwhile, Lucario fell and fell until Isaac was breathing down his neck. Altair continued to go up during the night and the day, while Isaac and Lucario fought for scraps. Oh, and I can't forget to mention Guybrush winning a couple hours from Isaac and Lucario in the middle of the night. Now THAT'S shocking. Why it Happened - This is the one result of Division 1 that flat out shocked me. If anything, I thought Altair would be the one likely to flop while Lucario dominated. The poll in Tran's analysis showed that AC was anticipated here, but after its release, it just seemed to get backlash and was pretty weak in the GotY polls. Meanwhile, Lucario not only has Pokemon behind him, but he was in Brawl as well. Pokemon + Brawl = fail? I guess if your name is not Pikachu or something. I guess this shows that Pokemon outside of Pikachu, Mewtwo, and the ones with fads attached to them just aren't cared for. Meanwhile, it also shows that Altair is more popular than we thought, and AC wasn't received badly. I don't think Altair is going to end up looking too strong in the end, and that this is more Lucario being uber-weak than Altair being strong. What Will Happen - Duke/Marth/Altair/Lucario...man I've changed big time on this group. This group doesn't look much stronger than Altair's first fourpack, so he could walk away with ease here. The Lucario/Marth split possibility still exists, only now I think Marth is going to be the one pounding Lucario with SFF. Still, will Duke squeeze by from the split? Crew Prediction Challenge - HM...the only one right again? This must be vindication for all the crazy picks he got wrong in the past or something. HM - 2 Guest (KP) - 1 Moltar - 0 Yoblazer - 0 Lopen - 0 Tran - 0 Ngamer - 0 Crew Accuracy Challenge - HM gets the point for Altair, Guybrush and Lucario, and Yo gets the point for Isaac. HM - 5 Guest (War, KP (2)) - 3 Lopen - 3 Yoblazer - 3 Ngamer - 2 Tran - 1 Moltar - 0 --- Moltar Status: augh Liquid/Luigi/Roxas/Sho - Bracket: Luigi > Liquid - Vote: Liquid (8/16) |
| Chaotic Mind | Posted 9/22/2008 11:04:14 AM | message detail | #283 |
|
I just wanna be the first one to call Altair>Duke for match 2 of
round 2. Though it might be obvious now, i at least thought Altair
would take second in round 2 even before yesterday's match. Man did Lucario disappoint though. My bracket has him making it out of the division with Link >.< It seems a lot of people out there predicted Altair's strength. The stats page shows 52% correctly picked him to win. --- Proud member of the A1 Steak Sauce Guild |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/22/2008 11:13:27 AM | message detail | #284 |
|
Yeah, I guessed in the PPC that 40%+ of the brackets would have Altair
in first. I figured it would be because 1st option + casual character =
lol bracketmakers Instead it's lol B8 ;_; --- Moltar Status: augh Liquid/Luigi/Roxas/Sho - Bracket: Luigi > Liquid - Vote: Liquid (8/16) |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/22/2008 11:40:34 AM | message detail | #285 |
|
Kefka holding up better in Round 2 despite being with Cloud Why do people keep saying this? It's not true! Directly, Fenix did a little bit better against Kefka! --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/22/2008 11:49:13 AM | message detail | #286 |
|
I meant Kefka's final percentage of 13.24% with Cloud to Duke's final percentage of 13.30% with Sonic. At least I think I did, and now that I actually checked the percentages I still wasn't right about it! --- Moltar Status: augh Liquid/Luigi/Roxas/Sho - Bracket: Luigi > Liquid - Vote: Liquid (8/16) |
| th3l3fty | Posted 9/22/2008 1:49:47 PM | message detail | #287 |
|
Duke Nukem vs. Kefka Palazzo vs. Marth vs. Niko Bellic First Place +7 Yo +6 Lopen +5 tranny +4 Moltar +3 Guest +2 HM +1 Ngamer Second Place +0 Moltar +0 HM +0 Yo +0 Lopen +0 tranny +0 Ngamer +0 Guest Altair vs. Guybrush Threepwood vs. Isaac vs. Lucario First Place +7 HM +6 tranny +5 Lopen +4 Moltar (tie) +4 Yo (tie) +2 Guest +1 Ngamer Second Place +7 HM +6 Ngamer +5 tranny +4 Yo +3 Lopen +2 Moltar +1 Guest Overall Rankings 1. Heroic Mario (33) [+16] 2. transience (28) [+16] 3. Ngamer (26) [+8] 4. Board 8 (24) [+6] 5. yoblazer (23) [+15] 6. Lopen (22) [+14] 7. Master Moltar (19) [+10] Board 8 and Ngamer both stumble a bit, while HM's upset pick and tranny's high marks propel them ahead. --- thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 9/22/2008 2:04:16 PM | message detail | #288 |
|
The poll in Tran's analysis showed that AC was anticipated here, but
after its release, it just seemed to get backlash and was pretty weak
in the GotY polls. Nooooooooo! AC slipped through the cracks and SB didn't list it in any of the GotY polls (I assume that when he picked out the multiplatform choices he got confused and though he'd already run AC as a 360 title). That's why we didn't have any indication of the game's popularity, and why Altair was such a wild card as a result. --- Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/ Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/22/2008 3:21:41 PM | message detail | #289 |
|
Bout time, analysis crew. >_> --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/22/2008 4:36:13 PM | message detail | #290 |
|
Which add up to 100%. This is now my Oracle prediction... may the best predictor win...! Well Lopen, my prediction appears to be better right now. Luigi is currently stealing the day vote and will soon break 40% again. Our predictions for Liquid Snake and Roxas are very close and I predicted much closer to Sho than you did. --- Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/22/2008 6:33:06 PM | message detail | #291 |
|
Nooooooooo! AC slipped through the cracks and SB didn't list it in
any of the GotY polls (I assume that when he picked out the
multiplatform choices he got confused and though he'd already run AC as
a 360 title). That's why we didn't have any indication of the game's
popularity, and why Altair was such a wild card as a result. Ahh, my bad. No wonder why I couldn't remember how it did exactly! --- Moltar Status: augh Liquid/Luigi/Roxas/Sho - Bracket: Luigi > Liquid - Vote: Liquid (8/16) |
| Lopen | Posted 9/22/2008 6:33:20 PM | message detail | #292 |
|
However, the fact remains that Liquid + Sho was still the hypotenuse. The main source of error came in overestimating Sho! --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/22/2008 8:22:51 PM | message detail | #293 |
|
Hey Shoe, I'm giving you until 10:30 EST to do your guest write-up. Else it goes to Ed "what the crunk" Bellis --- Moltar Status: augh Liquid/Luigi/Roxas/Sho - Bracket: Luigi > Liquid - Vote: Liquid (8/16) |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/22/2008 8:49:50 PM | message detail | #294 |
|
Man, my Luigi prediction is looking to be pretty spot on, and Sho ain't too far off either. Just overestimated Roxas, methinks. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/22/2008 8:50:52 PM | message detail | #295 |
|
But not quite as spot on as NGamer, I see! Argh, this always happened in the Series Contest! I'd come so close only for someone else to be a little closer! --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| transients | Posted 9/22/2008 8:53:59 PM | message detail | #296 |
|
choosing whole numbers means you'll tie with somebody else, which means you end up with more "points". but as far as Sho goes, I think I win today's guessing game. --- zfs: man i'm reading an argument about whether or not midna is fat zfs: come on mgs4 |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/22/2008 9:32:16 PM | message detail | #297 |
|
Division 2: Round 1 - Match 6 – Bowser vs. Deckard Cain vs. Geno vs. Phoenix Wright Moltar’s Analysis Bowser Game/Series Known From: Super Mario 2007 Results: 2nd Place in Round 1 vs. Ryu, Mewtwo and Toad 3rd Place in Round 2 vs. Auron, Ryu and Shadow Brawl Character #6, He had a pretty stacked path last year, but gets a break in this match Deckard Game/Series Known From: Diablo 2007 Results: N/A Another Blizzard PC character, my favorite Geno Game/Series Known From: Super Mario RPG 2007 Results: 4th Place in Round 1 vs. Squall, Aeris and Akuma And the fan-favorite from SMRPG is back again. Phoenix Game/Series Known From: Phoenix Wright 2007 Results: 2nd Place in Round 1 vs. Magus, Bomberman and Crash 4th Place in Round 2 vs. Mario, Big Boss and Magus Phoenix shines again! This is the next match same as the last match. Bowser wins with ease here. I really don’t think I need to go further. Now who’s the character with the best chance of taking second? Why, it’s Phoenix! Remember last year how everyone was all “go phoenix go!” and then big bad Bomberman was all “rawr I’m gonna stomp and crush the dreams of board 8 grr” and we were like “nooo you can do it phoenix c’mon” and then through the power of magic and everything that is good Phoenix was able to win? Yeah, those were good times. This time, Phoenix won’t need to rely on magic and everything that is good. Deckard Cain can just get outta here, and Geno is pretty darn low on the totem pole of Nintendo and Square, oh and Bowser being here does him zero favors. Bowser wins on strength and Phoenix gets second on being a favorite of the masses and his competition being ‘lol’. Moltar’s Bracket Says: Bowser > Phoenix Moltar’s Prediction is: Bowser: 48% - Phoenix: 23% - Geno: 16% - Deckard: 13% Heroic Mario’s Analysis You know a match is bad when Phoenix Wright is more or less guaranteed to move on. I haven't seen much discussion of this one, and at first glance there's no real reason for there to be, but Deckard Cain is a question mark. He has ties to Diablo, which is always worrisome, but then again, who really cares or even knows who he is? I'm not familiar with the series, but given that Google Image Search fails to provide anything in the way of telling me what he even looks like, it's probably safe to say he's not worth much. Maybe not - but I've got no BLIZZARDFEAR! Bowser should be an easy first here. There's no one that's even close to his level, and despite how unimpressive he's been in the past couple of contests, the competition here isn't going to be enough to stop him from wrecking the match. Second place is a different matter - Phoenix or Geno. The gut reaction is Phoenix due to SFF, but I think Phoenix ties heavily into the Nintendo fanbase. He's far more independent, which is why I'm taking him, but trusting in someone this weak is always sketchy. Still, he did well enough last year, even if it was against the likes of Crash Bandicoot, Bomberman, and an ever faltering Magus. Plus, he can at least say he doesn't share the same game with Bowser - a fact that will ensure that Geno doesn't get close to second here. Phoenix Wright advances again hopefully there's no bandwagon this year because phoenix wright isn't that good suck it down fanboys ...a quick look at last year's match tells me that Phoenix got by Bomberman with 0.06%...uhh well then... Prediction: Bowser - 50% ; Phoenix - 25% ; Geno - 14% ; Deckard Cain - 11% Bracket: Bowser > Phoenix Vote: Phoenix |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/22/2008 9:32:40 PM | message detail | #298 |
|
Yoblazer’s Analysis Well, thanks to the efforts of Luigi and Liquid Snake, I've finally achieved my first completely correct match. Thanks, gents, and I hope to capitalize with a tiny little streak here in this gauntlet of a bracket. Regardless, I think this match is safe, so I'll keep things short. Our first competitor is Bowser, one of gaming's most recognizable faces and a guy who will have things very much locked up in his favor. If Luigi can manage a comfortable win against significantly stronger competition, then Bowser should cruise against his opponents. For the dreaded Koopa King, the challenge is not today, but awaiting him in the next round, as Liquid Snake is looking much better than most people anticipated. I think Bowser must put forth a dominant performance in order to remain one of the favorites to move on to the divisional finals. Bowser's first lamb to the slaughter is Deckard Cain, a character who I just learned hails from the Diablo series. Well, Diablo himself didn't amount to much in this format last year, so I'm not expecting Cain to be worth a can of beans. Last place for you! Super Mario RPG's Geno will fare better, and may actually threaten to place, but I'm not expecting it. Geno scored about 16.5% last year and may move up a healthy bit this time around (because a Squall/Aeris/Akuma combo is much more powerful than what he's facing here, fanbase split or not). However, Geno has a notable disadvantage via possible SFF. Yep, as far as I know, Geno's only gaming appearance was SMRPG, a game which also happened to start Bowser's ugly mug. It may not amount to much, but it certainly won't help the little guy's chances. That, coupled with the fact that I simply don't think Geno's strong enough, means that Phoenix Wright (!) is my guy. Phoenix is an interesting character with a small yet devoted core fanbase. If they could keep the guy ahead of Bomberman last year, I see no reason to see them dropping the ball against Geno. Two of his competitors are weaksauce, and Bowser hasn't proven to be a beast in multi-option polls, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a great performance from everyone's favorite defense attorney. Bowser - 44% Deckard Cain - 13% Geno - 19% Phoenix Wright - 24% Lopen’s Analysis Stay a while, and listen. Bowser with first, he's just above these guys. Then again... PW busts out the DS SFF, Geno busts out the SMRPG SFF... and suddenly... Bowser is feeling the Deckard Pain. Cain with the amazing upset. You have quite a treasure there in that round one upset pick. That's right, Cain has this victory with authority. Anyone could've identified this with a mere 100g. ... errr.... okay, that's enough of that. I think even you people give me more credit than this. That being said, I can't shake the suspicion that Deckard Cain has a good chance of winning second place. Geno makes his return as Bowser fueled firewood as he gets one of his few sources of direct SFF in the bracket, lowering his chances to nil.. and ol PW just might share a fanbase with Nintendo. Check how he collapsed in round 2 last year with Mario around. Got like 12% or so. Deckard Cain on the other hand has no ties to the other two, and might have the vote backbone of a joke character. Unlike some entrants like Nana, I do feel that people will get the joke in this case. (I know he's not a joke character... but the reaction is "hahaha Cain what") Diablo ain't no pushover in these contests, so this joke backbone might be enough to get him by PW and firewood. Do I have it? Nah, I wussed out shortly before brackets were finalized. I'm just a bit surprised no one humored this one, and I think it'll be pretty close. Lopen's prediction: Bowser – 42.02% Phoenix Wright – 22.45% Deckard Cain – 20.95% Firewood – 14.58% |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/22/2008 9:33:24 PM | message detail | #299 |
|
Transience’s Analysis this is a weird match because it looks like Phoenix is the obvious second place entrant to advance. like in his games, I expect something to go dreadfully wrong for Phoenix Wright, because the idea of him skating on unchallenged just seems too easy. Bowser's obviously got first in the bag here, but I'm curious to see how he does. Bowser's been pretty awful in the last two years compared to expectations. once a Noble Nine killer, Bowser's struggled with Leon Kennedy, got beat pretty good by Crono, lost to Ryu thanks to Mewtwo and Toad and then just straight-up lost to Ryu. Bowser's been on a roll this year with releases, though - Super Paper Mario last year, Mario Galaxy a few months later, Mario RPG on the virtual console just a few weeks ago. I always considered Bowser's main source of strength to be those Mario RPG games since he actually gets (gasp) dialogue and character development as opposed to some dude chilling at the end of a bridge next to a brilliantly-placed axe. Bowser, you suck. this match for him is about setting expectations for round 2 and to see if he can redeem himself. I expect him to do well here since he's gonna SFF Geno pretty good, and the other two guys are from lawyer sims and a PC game NPC. Geno's a weird one. I've never understood the appeal there, he's pretty useless and doesn't have a good design at all and doesn't have good lines or anything.. but the Mario RPG base seems to love him for some reason. I won't argue about this though. I will say that of all the characters in this thing, Bowser is his kryptonite - a more popular, more liked, better character from his only game. Bowser will definitely hurt Geno, and as such it's hard to pick the dude. then there's Deckard Cain, a guy I'd never heard of until last month. I'm going into this writeup knowing nothing about him other than that he's a quest-giver, apparently has some cool lines and is a borderline "joke character" in that he makes people laugh but isn't an inanimate object or anything. anyway, I've always felt Diablo got a lot of his strength from his name and his design, two things Cain lacks bigtime. hardcore Diablo fans will vote for him, but I'm not sure how numerous they are. I won't put second place out of reach for him, but he reminds me of Sarah Kerrigan in some weird way, and Kerrigan's one of the bigger busts we've ever had. so that leaves us with Phoenix, a lovable guy that seems to be past his prime a bit, but shouldn't be past it enough to decline much at all. Apollo Justice also came out some six months ago, so he's still relevant to some people. the one thing that scares me about this match is the idea of Phoenix getting an Apollo Justice picture of him - if this happens, all bets are off. that's the equivalent of Zero Suit Samus or Sprite Snake. I'd say Phoenix is probably good for 20%, and if any of these other guys can get up that high, well, tough luck for him. but I don't see it happening. (update: phew, no AA4 picture) star road doll-talkers, storytelling quest givers, Wright can't lose to these transience's prediction (I have utterly no idea what to do here): Bowser with 49.43%, Phoenix Wright with 22.22%, Geno with 14.66%, Deckard Cain with 13.69% Ngamer’s Analysis Whew, a little normalcy back in the Contest feels good after that wild and wacky Division One. Although Liquid somehow surviving the Day Vote to continue hanging this close with Luigi has certainly cost me some confidence in my Luigi > Bowser selection, I must admit... The Koopa King is going to need to put on a powerhouse performance in the upcoming 24 hours if that confidence is to be restored. Fortunately he's going to have an excellent opportunity to do just that! Let's take a look at where these fellows stood last time around. Last Known Values Bowser - 26.32% (2007) Phoenix - 17.64% (2007) Geno - 15.17% (2007) Deckard - new |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/22/2008 9:34:10 PM | message detail | #300 |
|
Bowser's number in the first round was a total crapshoot, what with
Mewtwo and Toad doing heaven knows what with the Nintendo support. This
number is based on his R2 showing, and it's probably pretty accurate-
the guy has still got some legitimate strength, and his loss was more a
matter of Auron and Ryu being perfect characters for this 4-way format.
I'd expect him to perform at around that 26 level tonight, or perhaps
even a little higher because... Phoenix Wright is a character that I don't think holds up very well against Nintendo's upper tier. We've seen him cave badly in the face of Mario, and Edgeworth got blown away worse than we expected by Link, so although Bowser's not nearly at the same level of SFF-ability, I'm still not expecting PW to look his best here. And then poor Geno got about the worst placement possible- as someone who just finished up a Virtual Console playthrough of Mario RPG, I can safely say that despite how cool Geno was throughout, Bowser consistently stole the show in that party. I DO feel he was held back somewhat by Squall and Aeris last time around (no way would I pick Akuma to beat him that badly 1v1), and sadly he probably won't have much chance to improve on that 15 here in '08. Then there's Deckard who... nay, sorry, just can't muster up any excitement about his upset abilities. To be a successful "joke" character in this format you have to make it very clear that you LOOK like a joke to the casual voter, IMO. L-Block just looks ridiculous to everyone, and that grabs people's attention and swings votes his way, whereas Cain just looks like any other old man from an RPG, so I can't see him picking up many votes outside of the DII fanbase. That being said, with the rest of this group swinging so heavily Nintendo, he SHOULD have an opportunity to at least look somewhat decent. And by that I mean... better than Kerrigan. Maybe. Let's turn those thoughts into numbers, turn up the heat for 90 minutes, and we come out of the pot with... Bowser - 43.73% Phoenix Wright - 23.44% Geno - 17.68% Deckard Cain - 15.51% I don't like it, I love it! Ngamer Says: Bowser > Phoenix Guest’s Analysis - Ed Bellis Match 5: You’ve Got Quite a Treasure in That OVERUSED HAIKU Seriously. I like Bowser in Super Mario RPG as much as the next guy, but I’m willing to bet we’ll see at least ten topics with some form of “Like the moon over the day” in them. Which is at least better than seeing fifteen thousand ZETTA topics, so I don’t know why I’m complaining. But I (as usual) digress. Despite Nintendo being total ass thus far, Bowser hasn’t fallen so far from grace that he’ll get anything but first among these jobbers. We have Phoenix Wright, who managed to get second place last year in a match that was probably harder than this one. We have Geno, who might even appear stronger than usual due to leeching off Bowser (and I doubt it’ll work the other way around). And we have the requisite newbie, Deckard Cain, who could theoretically beat Phoenix if enough people ‘get the joke.’ I think Phoenix really benefited from the four-way format last year, because everybody knows lawyers love four-ways. Deckard Cain is an old man, and thus probably has minimal interest in pursuit of orgies. I bet Geno sports more wood than Deckard does. THIS WAS HIGHLY RELEVANT BEFORE IT BECAME A TANGENT I could see Cain pulling off a surprise second-place run here, but I won’t take the upset; while it’s true that Phoenix has a cult following, it’s a cult following that actually follows and votes in these contests, which is the important part. Plus OBJECTION! hahahahaahahaaZETTA Prediction: We need the Deckard Cain rap up in here. Bowser – 38.75% Deckard Cain – 20.13% Geno – 18.55% Phoenix Wright – 22.57% Crew Consensus: Bowser > Phoenix is agreed upon by everyone. Yay! |
