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Character Battle VI Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

Big Bob | Posted 10/25/2007 10:41:41 PM | message detail | #251
*Pikachu > Dante
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"You're slowing going from Nixon to Mr. Burns." -Jon Stewart on Bush
trannyscience | Posted 10/25/2007 10:41:55 PM | message detail | #252
thanks ulti
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
Gaddswell | Posted 10/25/2007 10:48:31 PM | message detail | #253
I love it when ulti does that.
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Who the hell do you think you are getting off being so egotistical like that? - hochiminh155
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/25/2007 10:49:01 PM | message detail | #254
analysis crew more like analysis crunk
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CB6 - 230/336; Oracle - 35th
http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff192/Afroking97/sonicwii.jpg
Tatl | Posted 10/25/2007 10:54:02 PM | message detail | #255
Pikachu and Luigi upsets > Crono losing to Vincent.
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Attention anyone angry/disappointed with "Sonic in Brawl" information: READ -> http://i24.tinypic.com/2zsa9aw.jpg
Mario Man53245 | Posted 10/26/2007 4:48:09 AM | message detail | #256
^ Agreed.
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"Nothing helps a bad mood like spreading it around." - Calvin
http://img444.imageshack.us/img444/2118/phedgnixaw2.png
Lugia2 | Posted 10/26/2007 6:11:16 AM | message detail | #257
Thanks Ulti! Now Pikachu will go to the FINALS!

On the other hand, that would probably guarantee Cloud the match...

Oh, and I'm surprised you all let the hate kept Pikachu from being considered anything more than "possible." Even if Pikachu makes a HUGE collapse, you guys just made a stupid mistake...Or I didn't read you guys that closely, which is entirely possible...Still, I wish Ammy could be more of a contender );
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"If the [PSP] is such a loser... why did you buy [one]?"- Saint Waldo
"Because I am crazy. I also own three Wonderswans."- Chris Kohler
Master Moltar | Posted 10/26/2007 8:10:00 AM | message detail | #258
Ganondorf......22.47% 31809
Luigi................23.48% 33242
Master Chief..35.42% 50156
Yuna................18.63% 26384
TOTAL VOTES............141591

17.73% of the brackets predicted 1st correctly.
8.48% of the brackets predicted 2nd correctly.

40.66% of the brackets predicted 1st to come in 2nd.
21.39% of the brackets predicted 2nd to come in 1st.

Crew Predictions: Fully Correct - 36; Half Correct - 15; Barely Correct - 2

Some may blame the pic, but the fact is that Luigi was able to get the best of Ganondorf, and move on to Round 4 with MC.



Crew Prediction Challenge - Yo gets the point.

Guest (Turtle "2", Kleenex, Who Cares?, Sensi, Luis, XII, l3fty, Gadds, Bob, Bio) - 11
Lopen - 9
Yoblazer - 8
HM - 7
KH - 5
Tran - 4
Moltar - 4
Ulti - 2

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Moltar gets the point for MC, Guest gets the point for Luigi and Ganondorf, and Ulti gets the point for Yuna.

Yoblazer - 43
Guest (Bokonon_Lives "2", Dp, Turtle "5", Ashe "2", Kleenex "3", Who Cares? "3", chocobo, Richard, Xcarvenger "2", Sensi, Darunia, satai "3", Bio "4", Luis "4", XIII "2", l3fty, Gadds, Bob, Ed) - 39
HM - 36
Lopen - 29
Ulti - 27
Moltar - 26
Tran - 23
KH - 21
Master Moltar | Posted 10/26/2007 8:12:25 AM | message detail | #259
Oh, and I'm surprised you all let the hate kept Pikachu from being considered anything more than "possible." Even if Pikachu makes a HUGE collapse, you guys just made a stupid mistake...Or I didn't read you guys that closely, which is entirely possible...Still, I wish Ammy could be more of a contender );

Even though most of us aren't Pikachu fans, there was still no sign something like this would happen. Pikachu barely got by last round thanks to the Tidus/Vivi split, and with Dante and Leon being much stronger, we thought the split wouldn't be bad enough to let Pikachu get first.

However, we didn't expect Pikachu to get 8% stronger out of nowhere.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Dante/Ammy/Leon/Pikachu - Bracket: Dante > Leon - Vote: Ammy (283/346)
Master Moltar | Posted 10/26/2007 9:19:40 PM | message detail | #260
Division 7: Round 3 - Match 55 – Kratos vs. L-Block vs. Solid Snake vs. Riku

Moltar’s Analysis

Kratos
Round 1 – 40.13% vs. DK, Marth and Prince of all Cosmos
Round 2 – 32.48% vs. L-Block, Kirby and DK

Sent Kirby and DK to the depths of Hades.

L-Block
Round 1 – 30.89% vs. Kirby, Laharl and Nathan
Round 2 – 28.33% vs. Kratos, Kirby and DK

holy crap

Snake
Round 1 – 57.88% vs. Nightmare, Rayman and Vyse
Round 2 – 47.72% vs. Riku, Ryu H. and Nightmare

OH SNAKU!

Riku
Round 1 – 27.24% vs. Ryu, Roxas and Haseo
Round 2 – 19.43% vs. Snake, Ryu H. and Nightmare

Redeems himself…a little

Well here I am ready to write about Snake > Kirby, but then L-Block is like “what” and goes for the upset.

Yeah, Riku “upset” Ryu H. to get to Round 3, but dammit who cares L-BLOCK is here and he is shaped like a boot to kick ass. He only fell 2% from Round 1 to Round 2 with MUCH stronger competition. It’s clear now that L-Block has a dedicated backing that won’t abandon him. How about the others? Riku? Snake-bait. Kratos? Snake-bait. Snake? Snake-bait.

L-Block? AIN’T NO STOPPIN HIM NYUUUH! So even though L-Block booted out my dear Kirby, I’m picking him to take second here. With L-Block, you just have to throw logic out the window and go with your gut (your nostalgic gut that loves Tetris)

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Snake > L-Block

Moltar’s Prediction is: Snake: 40% - L-Block: 25% - Kratos: 20% - Riku: 15%



Ultimaterializer’s Analysis

In a rush again, so forgive me.

I'm fairly sure Riku is going to get SFFd too much in this match to score second place, and Snake is going to get first. SO, instead of trying to come up with random evidence to support what I think happens, I'm going with what I'm rooting for! Snake > L-Block FTFW!

Although, didn't Kirby beat Kratos once? And L-Block beat Kirby, sooo...

Ulti's Prediction:
Snake [43.00%]
L-Block [21.00%]
Kratos [20.00%]
Riku [16.00%]


Heroic Mario’s Analysis

I have no idea how, but the L-Block has somehow managed to sneak its way into the division final. Even crazier still, it has a surprisingly good chance at making it to the quarterfinal. This might just be the best round for the L-Block, too, because not only is it the sprite round – classic l-block sprite imminent – but the competition all have some sort of connection with one another. This will also be the first match where the L-Block doesn’t have to worry about any other Nintendo characters in the poll, which could actually help it out.

But the possibility of L-Block doing much more than just squeaking by Kratos is pretty slim. Snake may be getting his Metal Gear sprite, but that isn’t going to stop him from murdering this poll. In fact, despite facing undoubtedly stronger competition, I don’t expect him to drop too much from the percent he got last round. He’s looked like a monster in this format, and I’d expect him to continue to impress here, even with that atrocious sprite he’s going to get.

As for Kratos, as we saw last round, he had no problem handling the Block like it was nothing. Under normal circumstances that would repeat here, but there is a possibility that we may see something weird happen with Snake/Kratos. It isn’t so much that they are both of the same “badass” ilk as they are both big PlayStation characters – they’re bound to share the same fans through that. I like both of them, but Snake’s gotta get my vote out of the two, and I’d wager many are in the same boat.

DARN YOU L-BLOCK I DON’T LIKE YOU THIS MUCH

Solid Snake – 45%
L-Block – 21%
Kratos – 20%
Riku – 14%


Bracket: Solid Snake > Kirby
Vote: SNAAAAAAAKE
Master Moltar | Posted 10/26/2007 9:20:01 PM | message detail | #261
Yoblazer’s Analysis

Man, talk about getting the contest wind knocked out of you. Today's match is breaking all sorts of records in the suckassery department, but luckily, I've managed to ignore the eyesore all day. As always, we must move on to bigger and better things, even though we may do so in a pissy mood. Hey you, Pikachu! Eat ****!

Today's match features the only Noble 9er who has looked as impressive as our big behemoths, Link and Cloud, in each of his wins. Yes, my friends, while it may be partly due to beneficial competition, there is absolutely no denying that Solid Snake has blazed through the first two rounds in a way very few characters can. Unfortunately, it's nearly certain that his run of blowouts will come to an end today. He's still favored to win comfortably, of course, but whereas he had nothing but advantages in the first two rounds, the Solid one is plagued with a few handicaps today.

His most noticeable disadvantage is the infamous Solid **** picture we all know he's going to get. It's a fact of life: Solid Snake underperforms with his fecal matter pic, and today should be no exception. In addition, Snake's opponents, L-Block, Kratos, and Riku, will take further advantage of the horrible picture. L-Block will score an in-game pic and look awesome, while Snake's other two opponents, who are new characters from this generation, will likely get 3D picture models that will look tremendously more appealing than Solid ****. All things considered, this may actually be the single biggest picture disadvantage Snake has ever gotten. As a huge Snake fan, I shall take the opportunity to whine about this liberally as soon as the match begins.

And Snake's other misfortune? He's going up against a joke character. Of course, this ain't just any joke character; this is the king of joke characters! L-Block has looked absolutely amazing, and most of the other joke characters in the contest have stayed surprisingly steady between rounds while simultaneously managing to make their stronger opponents look worse. L-Block, Mudkip, and Bidoof have all done it, so it stands to reason that the killer block will do it again.

A weaker looking Snake will prevail, but who will go on with him? Personally, I think that's an easy one. L-Block pwned ass in his first two matches, and we've seen the scary consistency of joke characters more than once. His only real competition is Kratos, and even though the God of War star will probably be able to resist the brutal beating Snake would give him in normal circumstances (due to the guaranteed picture advantage), he still won't hold up nearly as well as his angular opponent. Honestly, and this may sound insane, but I wouldn't be too shocked if L-Block finished closer to Snake than to Kratos. I've even heard some wild talk of L-Block beating Snake. What a contest.

Solid Snake - 39%
L-Block - 25%
Riku - 18%
Kratos - 18%



Lopen’s Analysis

I'm not sure if the sprite round helps or hurts the L-Block here. Fools say he'll do better with the sprite... I'm not sure he will. I'm thinking his best chance to lose given these opponents is in the sprite round, simply because Solid Snake will possibly be weaker, and so it gives the other entrants the breathing room ultra-devoted to get over L-Block's joke fanbase.

However... as much as I'd hate to say it... I don't think the picture is going to hurt Snake much. After many matches of shooting for picture factor and it doing nothing (cept for the obvious case of Big Boss) I don't think pics mean as much in this format. It makes sense to me... people who have so little loyalty to change their vote based on a picture would likely vote for one of the other three entrants legitimately anyway. He might look bad in the match, but I'll blame L-Block for that sooner than Snake's picture.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/26/2007 9:20:44 PM | message detail | #262
So what does that mean. That means I'm picking L-Block here for second. It could be that it was doing so well because of rSFF, and Kratos or Riku have a chance to escape... but... I don't think that is the case. Now with Pikachu and a damn Block both in the final sixteen, I'm off to go write some hateful music about how stupid this contest is.

Please, Kratos... or better yet, Riku... prove me wrong.

Lopen's Prediction:
Solid Snake - 39.44%
L-Block - 23.36%
Kratos - 20.10%
Riku - 17.10%



Karma Hunter’s Analysis

A Snake match~! I want to write so much...

...the sprite round. A chance for perhaps the most humiliating upset of all time. I want to write so little...

Kratos

The God of War star has proven that he's legit and then some, but his coming out party has been interrupted more than a bit because unfortunately there happens to be an L-Block in the way. Now he's stuck in a match with two other Playstation forces, and the one guy who happens to be a bigger badass in gaming than he is. Uh oh...

L-Block

The most hilariously shocking joke character to ever hit the contest scene beats out Kirby for a second place berth courtesy of SFF (thanks, DK!) and, of course, the power of nonlinear joke voting. It's all fun and games until you hit a Noble Niner though...

...okay, until you hit Snake. I might be a bit biased on this one. If you wanted a candidate that could conceivably run to the finals without ever taking first in a match, you know your only option...

Solid Snake

He's been dominating, as many have expected him to (though perhaps not to this extent). So what better way to put a damper on things and expose his fairweather SSBB fanbase than the sprite round? Time for the *real* hardcore fanbase to show everyone what it's all about, Snake...

Riku

One of the biggest upsets of the second round (and surprisingly a pre-contest expected result) thrusts Riku into the third round. He's got *some* hope for placing, but with Kratos probably just being flat-out stronger and the fury of teh L, his little run probably ends here.

Y'know, as far as I'm concerned, I've given up on Kratos here. He'll show everyone exactly the kind of Dante-esque (or better) beast he is in another year, but even with the crappiest Snake that could ever crap, the potential fanbase overlap with Snake is too powerful to ignore. L-Block is easily the most independent character in this match. He shouldn't lose nearly as many votes as all the rest proportionally. I can't see either Riku or Kratos hanging with him, and I think he places comfortably.

...so where's the *real* match here? Why, with Solid Snake. (augh) Yes, he's a Noble Niner. Yes, he's the slayer of Sephiroth. And I might even be a bit pessimistic and paranoid - though you can't tell me Pikachu > Dante is very encouraging - but I seriously think he has a good shot to upend Snake here. Good as in '10% chance', but very realistic nonetheless, and the upset would be so remarkable: a character not only beating out a Noble Niner for first, but said 'character' being L-BLOCK, is hard to even get that upset at (though I'm sure I'll find a way). Snake getting hurt by Kratos on top of the perfect storm caused by his picture and the sheer bandwagoning rally L-Block has mounted? It could happen.

...and that's basically all I'm going to say on that. Kratos still has a shot at taking second (or even first...? here), and I can't *totally* count Riku out, but I think the upset most likely to happen is L-Block > Snake. Dear Lord.

And with that, I predict Snake crushing all despite it. Surprised?

Karma Hunter's Vote: SOLID ****
Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Solid Snake with 40%, L-Block with 25%, Kratos with 20%, Riku with 15%

Upset Probability: 0%

For luck <.<
Master Moltar | Posted 10/26/2007 9:21:04 PM | message detail | #263
Transience’s Analysis

woo rat

Snake is lucky this year. his sprite round history is fairly infamous; a near-loss to Frog (almost lost to Axel), a classic match with freaking Bowser (who has looked bad in every match since), Yoshi looking as strong as Squall. this year, he doesn't have anything remotely challenging in front of him, and the fact that he has some newfound strength probably gives him that extra cushion needed just in case another pretender tries to get him in the sprite round. the only person who is scared here is Karma Hunter, and that's just because he's a silly Snake fanboy.

no, the hype in this match is all about a joke character the board actually embraces -- L-Block. the Sprite Round (I'm calling it this because First Appearance Round sounds stupid) means L is getting a classic picture, a huuuuge picture advantage. easy, right?

actually, I don't think so - I think this round hurts him in two ways. one, part of the strength of joke characters in this format is that other entrants don't really hurt their percentages. you can see it every time a strong character eliminates a joke one: their percentage skyrockets. L-Block got 30.89% on Kirby/Laharl/Nathan Hale and and 28.33% on Kirby/Kratos/DK. there's a huge jump from Laharl/Nathan Hale to DK/Kratos, but L barely budged. the stronger the overall competition, the better L is going to do. I could see him getting 20% on Cloud/Link/Snake should he get that far. Master Chief would be lucky to pull that kind of performance off. hell, so would Snake.

this is why I think the sprite round hurts him -- Snake's not going to be at his peak strength. Snake and Kratos certainly are going to overlap more than Snake and the Block, and since L has no realistic chance at beating Snake, he (it?) has to hope that he hurts Kratos enough to sneak into second place. Snake and Kratos (and to a lesser extent, Riku) are "badasses"; L-Block is a damn Tetris block. sprite Snake is.. uh... a blob on the screen.

then there's reason #2 why I think this hurts him -- he's probably not going to get a NES/GB Tetris sprite, but an OLD SCHOOL one. maybe something like this, sans the computer: http://www.ubertechworld.com/museum/images/Compaq_PortableI/compaq_portableI_5.jpg

probably doesn't hurt him, but if people are expecting nostalgia, they might be looking in the wrong spot. it might be an ugly blob of a picture due to the awesome CGA graphics. I wonder if people even know what CGA graphics are these days.

anyway, this match is all about how high Kratos goes. L-Block seems like a good bet to get 25%. can Kratos get that? with Snake and Riku in the poll?

I say no, and I expect the crew is unanimous in saying the same.. except for Lopen, who hates the Block for some ungodly reason. I hope you have nightmares, Lopen. and if you picked the Block, well, good man. let's hope the Block can hold first over Snake for a while!

sorry kai aitch i didn't mean it don't hit me there

NO HAIKU TODAY
L-BLOCK, BOOT SHAPED TO KICK ASS
LAWL WATE I MESS UP

transience's prediction: Solid Snake with 37.79%, L-Block with 25.00%, Kratos with 22.43% Riku with 14.78%



Guest’s Analysis - ZenOfThunder

Ha I’m actually going to write this analysis this time Suck it! NOTHING CAN STOP ME!

So, yeah, Solid **** this round, right? Well ****. Being the crazy sunnuva ***** I am, I’m going to predict a major rSFF Noble-Nine breaking upset! Yup, L-Block’s MASSIVE pic advantage + Snake getting PS2 rSFF’d by Riku and Kratos due to his match pic leads to the biggest upset EVER!

L-Block: 38.52%
Snake:38.48%
Kratos: 13.61%
Riku: 9.39%
Master Moltar | Posted 10/26/2007 9:21:48 PM | message detail | #264
To put this in mathematical terms:

L-Block + Sprite Round > Snake - PS2 rSFF - Sprite Round

That’s right, I’m gonna call it before all of you. You’ll look back and say “You know what? That Zen guy was a ****ing genius.” Ulti’s writeup will start with “NOBODY saw this coming, except ZenOfThunder, the visionary that would lead Board 8 to dominate all of GameFAQs after he defeated the evil hochi and took the #1 spot for this whole contest.”

You can’t deny it, you know it’s going to happen, and you fear the block. But I don’t fear the block, I embrace its power, and that is why L-Block>Snake, and later L-Block>Sonic.



Crew Consensus: Snake > L-Block sweep almost darn you guest
Master Moltar | Posted 10/26/2007 9:22:11 PM | message detail | #265
oh, and Yo's REAL prediction

Solid Snake - 35%
L-Block - 27%
Riku - 19%
Kratos - 19%
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Dante/Ammy/Leon/Pikachu - Bracket: Dante > Leon - Vote: Ammy (283/346)
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/26/2007 9:22:43 PM | message detail | #266
augh
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg
transience | Posted 10/26/2007 9:38:20 PM | message detail | #267
haha god bless you zen
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"i go by statisticss put them all in an arena sepphroth="why arent your hair and mustache the same color?!" BAM dead mario" -Rathalownage
Tatl | Posted 10/26/2007 11:33:48 PM | message detail | #268
Zen, either you're going to be the greatest guest in this contest, or you're going to look like a dumb***!

I wish you luck.

L-Block for 2007 champion!
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Attention anyone angry/disappointed with "Sonic in Brawl" information: READ -> http://i24.tinypic.com/2zsa9aw.jpg
Lugia2 | Posted 10/27/2007 6:04:25 AM | message detail | #269
Thank Zen; he prevented an L-block sweep and swift destruction by crew curse (which has been absent this contest). Wow. Not like Pika at all...
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"If the [PSP] is such a loser... why did you buy [one]?"- Saint Waldo
"Because I am crazy. I also own three Wonderswans."- Chris Kohler
Master Moltar | Posted 10/27/2007 8:33:50 AM | message detail | #270
Dante....................30.43% 39904
Amaterasu...........11.93% 15644
Leon Kennedy.....23.85% 31279
Pikachu................33.79% 44304
TOTAL VOTES.................131131

10.50% of the brackets predicted 1st correctly.
11.07% of the brackets predicted 2nd correctly.

19.25% of the brackets predicted 1st to come in 2nd.
51.44% of the brackets predicted 2nd to come in 1st.

Crew Predictions: Fully Correct - 36; Half Correct - 15; Barely Correct - 3

Pikachu > Dante....WHY IS PIKACHU SO STRONG?



Crew Prediction Challenge - No point

Guest (Turtle "2", Kleenex, Who Cares?, Sensi, Luis, XII, l3fty, Gadds, Bob, Bio) - 11
Lopen - 9
Yoblazer - 8
HM - 7
KH - 5
Tran - 4
Moltar - 4
Ulti - 2

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Tran gets the point for Dante, Guest gets the point for Leon, Ulti and Yo get points for Pikachu, and Guest gets the point for Ammy.

Yoblazer - 44
Guest (Bokonon_Lives "2", Dp, Turtle "5", Ashe "2", Kleenex "3", Who Cares? "3", chocobo, Richard, Xcarvenger "2", Sensi, Darunia, satai "5", Bio "4", Luis "4", XIII "2", l3fty, Gadds, Bob, Ed) - 41
HM - 36
Lopen - 29
Ulti - 28
Moltar - 26
Tran - 24
KH - 21
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Kratos/L-Block/Snake/Riku - Bracket: Snake > Kirby - Vote: Snake (287/362)
Master Moltar | Posted 10/27/2007 9:20:17 PM | message detail | #271
Division 8: Round 3 - Match 56 – Squall Leonhart vs. Sora vs. Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Sub-Zero

Moltar’s Analysis

Squall
Round 1 – 35.33% vs. Aeris, Akuma and Geno
Round 2 – 33.56% vs. Sora, Aeris and Lara

King of (Square) SFF.

Sora
Round 1 – 41.87% vs. Lara, Wesker and Daxter
Round 2 – 29.92% vs. Squall, Aeris and Lara

Got revenge for 2003 against Aeris.

Sonic
Round 1 –39.64% vs. Sub-Zero, Prince of Persia and Joe
Round 2 – 44.39% vs. Sub-Zero, Gordon and Duke

BRAWLBOOST

Sub-Zero
Round 1 – 32.89% vs. Sonic, Prince of Persia and Joe
Round 2 – 23.47% vs. Sub-Zero, Gordon and Duke

Uh, what happened here?

S is the best letter in the alphabet, so I like this match for one reason!

The S that takes first is Sonic. Sure, there was a lot of doubt after Round 1, but after Sega panicked and made their calls to get Sonic in Brawl + a trailer, Sonic became safe from any doubt.

The S that takes last is Sub-Zero. Again, he was looking really good after Round 1, but then you throw Gordon and Duke into the mix and he goes down? Like, 9% down too. Can’t see him going another round now.

The two S’s battling for second? Squall and Sora. This shouldn’t be too unpredictible either. We’ve seen Squall beat Sora (SFF or not) last round, and now with Aeris gone, it’s more likely that Squall will get support from her former voters as well. Still, it would be foolish to count Sora out completely.

…Heck, with the SFF we’ve seen so far it’d be crazy to count Subby out too.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Sonic > Squall

Moltar’s Prediction is: Sonic: 35% - Squall: 26% - Sora: 22% - Sub-Zero: 17%



Ultimaterializer’s Analysis

This match is Sonic vs three characters that are strong enough to take second place, though Squall finishing pretty far ahead of Sora limits the possibilities.

It's very conceivable that Sora could screw Squall over and allow Sub-Zero to sneak into second place. But I doubt it. Subby looked like crap in the second round, while Squall looked great against two other Square character.

Oh and lol Aeris, good riddance.

Ulti's Prediction:
Sonic [35.00%]
Squall [27.00%]
Sora [23.00%]
Sub-Zero [15.00%]



Yoblazer’s Analysis

Holy crap, was this an incredible round, or what?! It started off a bit slowly, but the last four days will pass into legend as one of the most memorable, exciting, and all around ****ed up stretches in contest history. It seems almost impossible for our final round three match to contend with what we've recently seen, and I think that's for both better and worse. On the one hand, we need a breather, and on the other, well, it's never fun when your match is lost in a sea of omfg.

Our round tres swan song features Square heartthrobs, Squall Leonhart and Sora, speed demon and gaming icon, Sonic, and the greatest ice cube maker in history, Sub-Zero. May the lord bless and keep them all, but **** that ****, they're here to fight, and fight. They. Shall.

Today's huge odds-on favorite, Sonic, comes into this match on the heels of a big SSBB confirmation and a much more impressive second round performance, so it's fair to say that we'd all be relatively shocked if he didn't win this easily. The general consensus with regards to second place is that Squall should take it. Last round, Squall proved what most of us already knew: that he was clearly higher on the Square totem poll than both Sora and Aeris, and if Sora couldn't touch him then, there's no logical reason for him to pose a threat today.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/27/2007 9:20:42 PM | message detail | #272
The only thing standing between the Final Fantasy VIII star and a spot in the Sweet 16 is Sub-Zero, who may take advantage of the fanbase overlap between Squall and Sora just enough to get by. While it's a possibility made more frightfully realistic after Pikachu's stunning, fanbase overlap-fueled win, I still think Squall has this. He's clearly the stronger of the two characters, he might end up pummeling Sora around, and Sub-Zero's last performance was a bit too disappointing for me to put my faith in him today. Onward, to Round Four!

Sonic the Hedgehog - 33%
Squall Leonhart - 25%
Sub-Zero - 22%
Sora - 20%



Lopen’s Analysis

Alright, quad S match, awesome. If it weren't for that bastard L-Block it'd be that way next round too. ... not that there was a chance of any Ss advancing this far in this division, so maybe I'll concede that L-Block doesn't entirely deserve the dissin-- nah.

Sonic looked beastly last round compared to the first. Was it Brawl? Was it the PC fanbase being weak and Gordon being a freak... and the Shredder?

Dunno. I strongly considered Sub-Zero before last round last round, but after he flopped so hard last round and Scorpion couldn't capitalize remotely on a three way Nintendo match, (though now I don't think a Nintendo fanbase split means much for overall strength since it's so large a fanbase) I'm going to have to say no.

Seeing a Sora upset would be off the Kingdom Charts, but do I think to call it shows Kingdom Smarts? Nope. Though Sora showed that his fanbase is not one of the Kingdom Parts of Squall's last round, and he should do fine, Squall has just shown more power. However, Squall better hope he's in command right from the Kingdom Starts, because having Sonic and Sora here will make sure his day vote Kingdom Departs.

So I guess what I Kingdom Impart here is that Sonic > Squall for this match. Sora isn't out of the running, though. Go, Sora!

Lopen's prediction:
Sonic - 33.00%
Squall - 25.02%
Sora - 23.44%
Sub-Zero - 18.54%



Karma Hunter’s Analysis

In a bit of a rush today, you'll have to excuse me. OR STOP VOTING FOR L-BLOCK but I don't think that one's gonna pan out =/

Squall Leonhart

Doing about as expected in his run-up to this point, Squall is now holding out for his innate strength to carry him over Sub-Zero as Sora tries to hold him back here.

Sora

Doesn't have much of a shot here, but we've seen larger margins reversed in this format. Though the SFF wrench throws most of that out the window... so he's mostly here to try and **** up Squall's chances.

Sonic the Hedgehog

teh BRAWLZ has made Sonic brawly, that's for certain. Perhaps the most impressive NN performance last round (certainly relative to his expectations that the first round made), Sonic would be considered a near-lock to the finals now if it weren't for a certain competitor who never seems to drop significantly below 30%...

Sub-Zero

After an extremely impressive first round, lets Gordon get close to him in Round 2. Folding against stronger competition (namely Sonic in Brawl)? The Shredder factor? His upset chances against Squall don't look nearly as good, but don't count Subby out, not with his MK1 pic on the way...

I'd like to say Sub-Zero's got this one for the sake of upsets (sorry Squall) and, more importantly, someone with the least overlap with Snake next round. <.< But I see Squall, despite being held back, winning this one plainly. The split with Sora is apparently very severe, but I can't blame what I saw last round on the Shredder picture entirely. With this extremely tough competition, and the fact that Sora shouldn't drain Squall THAT much... yeah. Not too much else in my reasoning, big possibility of an upset but not enough for me to take it.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/27/2007 9:21:24 PM | message detail | #273
Karma Hunter's Vote: Sub-Zero VOTE STRATEGICALLY
Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Sonic the Hedgehog with 39%, Squall with 23%, Sub-Zero with 20%, Sora with 18%

Upset Probability: 60%

Sub-Zero is one thing, but SORA got way too close for comfort last round as well. The dynamic of the format is always volatile...



Transience’s Analysis

woo block

pretty interesting match here - Sonic gets to show what he's got against two other strong characters, though they're going to be holding each other back so he may impress more than expected. Sub-Zero was probably the dud of the last round, so Squall probably has nothing to worry about.

...that's likely to be the conventional thinking today, but I'm not feeling it. for one, Sub-Zero's probably going to get a classic MK1 picture, maybe the best picture he'll ever get. Scorpion had an awesome picture earlier in the round. it's much better than that Super Shredder pic he got last round. meanwhile, the others may look kinda bad. they're just not made for sprite-like pictures. hell, look at Kratos's pic today. not that I think this is a big deal, but hey, it''s something.

then there's that whole fanbase overlap thing. Squall and Sora have that going on in spades. Sub-Zero is a lot stronger than your average "weakest character who's lucky to be here", too. round 1 made him look like a beast, and I can't come up with a reason for that to magically go away other than the picture. (Brawl announcement = fighting game SFF!!! what) I don't know, I think Squall and Sora will split pretty hard, Sonic will look nice here, and Sub will get his 20% or something needed to move on. bring on round 4!

Kingdom Hearts overlap
Sub-Zero's all "split fanbase?"
"thanks for second place."

transience's prediction: Sonic with 39.67%, Sub-Zero with 21.89%, Squall with 20.46%, Sora with 17.98%



Guest’s Analysis - Majin Lou

Squall

From losing to Solid Snake in 2002 to, well, losing to Solid Snake in 2006, Squall has come a long way in these contests. He is one of the strongest characters outside of the Noble Nine, but once again has to deal with Sora stealing some of his support. Oh well, even if Sora wasn't in the poll, he wouldn't have a shot of upending Sonic. Damn BRAWLFEAR. Sucks we won't get a good read on Squall's strength without other Square characters in the same poll until next round, maybe.

Sora

If I was Sora right now, I'd be feeling mighty well right now. Sure, he pretty much has no chance advancing past Sonic and Squall, but going from getting doubled by Aeris in 2003 to making her your ***** in 2007 has got to be satisfying. He might have to watch out for Sub-Zero though, since Squall will probably take the majority of Aeris' support. That, and he'll have to deal with classic Sub-Zero. Sora better keep some GAME FUEL on hand just incase...

Sonic

Sonic should be very glad he got into Brawl. In round one, all Sonic series characters looked like crap, including Sonic. In round two, Knuckles and Shadow really looked like crap. Then, a miracle happened. Noting how well Sub-Zero had done in round one, Sonic made a call to Nintendo headquarters and got himself into Super Smash Bros. Brawl. Sure, some shady deal probably went down in a back alley afterwards, but hey, all that matters is that SONIC IS IN BRAWL! HOLY ****! HOLY ****! **** THAT OLYMPIC GAME, SONIC IS IN BRAWL!!!11 Anyway, Sonic will have no trouble getting first place.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/27/2007 9:21:47 PM | message detail | #274
Sub-Zero

After nearly getting sued by Kevin Nash for stealing his Super Shredder gimmick, Sub-Zero is hoping to get a picture advantage this round with classic Sub-Zero, a.k.a. a palette swap of classic Scorpion. Clearly the strongest Mortal Kombat character, it took Sub-Zero a few years to finally make it into the contest, but he has impressed ever since. While advancing should be out of the question, he can definitely put up a fight for third.

Prediction: Sonic: 35% Squall: 24% Sora: 21% Sub-Zero: 20%
Vote: Squall



Crew Consensus: Sonic > Squall ends this round.
ZFS | Posted 10/27/2007 9:46:19 PM | message detail | #275
Football again!


For whatever reason, I’m thinking that Sora being here instead of Aeris will end up helping out Squall quite a bit – although still enough of a hindrance so as not to be able to threaten Sonic for first. Last round, Squall dropped a meager 2% from Sora being thrown into the mix. The KH fanbase may be a bit more independent than I was thinking before, or maybe a good chunk of Aeris voters went to Sora instead. Who knows.

Sonic should be good for first – no question. He looked amazing coming off of the Brawl announcement last round. For reasons beyond my understanding, if you’re announced for that game you all of a sudden acquire this substantial fanbase that otherwise wouldn’t support you. It’s weird, but it’s hard to argue against those results. Normally, I would consider a Squall > Sonic upset, but with Sora here and the Brawl Boost, there’s no chance of that happening.

After the first round, I thought Sub-Zero was going to be a huge favorite to win this one, but after last round, that completely changed for me. Sub didn’t look good at all, and while that could mostly be blamed on Sonic, I’m not sure how well I would expect him to hold up here. I don’t think any “LFF” would be significant enough to let him slip by.

Sonic – 32%
Squall – 26%
Sora – 22%
Sub-Zero – 20%


Bracket: Sonic > Squall
Vote: Squall


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"With each passing day, the world finds new and exciting ways to kill a man."
ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/27/2007 10:20:41 PM | message detail | #276
I was so close...!
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(|| ' ' ||) Host of "Who would win in a Fight?"
. /|_|\ I need a monster to clobber that there Kirby!
Master Moltar | Posted 10/28/2007 9:07:00 AM | message detail | #277
Kratos..............20.91% 29772
L-Block............28.63% 40774
Solid Snake....32.44% 46201
Riku.................18.02% 25656
TOTAL VOTES.............142403

27.09% of the brackets predicted 1st correctly.
0.88% of the brackets predicted 2nd correctly.

47.64% of the brackets predicted 1st to come in 2nd.
2.60% of the brackets predicted 2nd to come in 1st.

Crew Predictions: Fully Correct - 37; Half Correct - 15; Barely Correct - 3

L-Block dominates again, this time giving Solid Snake a run for his money.



Crew Prediction Challenge - Tran gets the point

Guest (Turtle "2", Kleenex, Who Cares?, Sensi, Luis, XII, l3fty, Gadds, Bob, Bio) - 11
Lopen - 9
Yoblazer - 8
HM - 7
KH - 5
Tran - 5
Moltar - 4
Ulti - 2

Crew Accuracy Challenge - Tran gets the point for Snake, Moltar, Yo, KH and Tran get points for L-Block, Lopen gets the point for Kratos, and Yo gets the point for Riku.

Yoblazer - 46
Guest (Bokonon_Lives "2", Dp, Turtle "5", Ashe "2", Kleenex "3", Who Cares? "3", chocobo, Richard, Xcarvenger "2", Sensi, Darunia, satai "5", Bio "4", Luis "4", XIII "2", l3fty, Gadds, Bob, Ed) - 41
HM - 36
Lopen - 30
Ulti - 28
Moltar - 27
Tran - 26
KH - 22
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Squall/Sora/Sonic/Sub-Zero - Bracket: Sonic > Squall - Vote: Sonic (295/378)
Master Moltar | Posted 10/28/2007 9:25:48 PM | message detail | #278
Quarterfinals: Match 57 – Samus Aran vs. Mega Man vs. Cloud Strife vs. Ryu

Moltar’s Analysis

Samus - Taking off her clothes for everyone to see.
Round 1 – 51.75% vs. Frog, Axel and Kerrigan
Round 2 – 45.96% vs. Scorpion, Frog and Midna
Round 3 – 33.10% vs. Mega Man, Yoshi and Scorpion

Take that, MM > Samus supporters!

Mega Man - How’s it going King of SFF?
Round 1 – 50.49% vs. KOS-MOS, Arthas and Diablo
Round 2 – 37.73% vs. Yoshi, Knuckles and KOS-MOS
Round 3 – 30.43% vs. Samus, Yoshi and Scorpion

Read above

Cloud - Team Killer
Round 1 – 61.24% vs. Ocelot, Jill and Zolom
Round 2 – 56.10% vs. Marcus, Ocelot and Kefka
Round 3 – 49.59% vs. Ryu, Auron and Marcus

No slowing down for Cloud, and even his FF-pal Auron suffers.

Ryu - A dedicated fanbase and little luck can do wonders
Round 1 – 36.30% vs. Bowser, Mewtwo and Toad
Round 2 – 26.16% vs. Auron, Bowser and Shadow
Round 3 – 20.25% vs. Cloud, Auron and Yoshi

Ryu’s hardcore fans push him through again.

S is the best letter in the alphabet, so I like this match for one reason!

Round 4! The Quartz as they call ‘em on the streets. This match isn’t too crazy or wild, and should end up being pretty predictable.

Cloud takes first with ease, and because he’s a member of Clinkeroth, expect an overperformance that will get Cloud > Link cries loud and abundant again. Seriously, look at the guy so far. All this has been is a Contest between Link and Cloud to see who can one-up the other.

Last place? Ryu. Sure, the whole Samus/MM split could MAYBE push Ryu to second, but it’s really unlikely. Ryu has been slipping each round, and last round he barely got by an Auron who got crushed thanks to Cloud. His chances of making it out alive in a poll with 3 Noble Niners are…BADOUKEN.

The battle between Samus and Mega Man rages on for another round. This time, the stakes are higher, with the loser out of the Contest for good. Samus beat out MM last poll, and that was with the hardcore Yoshi fans possibly hindering her. We’ve seen MM beatdown Yoshi, and we know about Samus’s history with SFF, which is why I think Yoshi was more of a hurt for her than Mega Man. Samus has also held up against Cloud before, so I don’t see any real reason for her to collapse here.

Moltar’s Match Pic: http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/459/gfaqssamusmmcloudryucopzu4.png

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Cloud > Samus

Moltar’s Prediction is: Cloud: 40% - Samus: 25% - Mega Man: 20% - Ryu: 15%



Heroic Mario’s Analysis

So Link came out looking to reassure people that he's still going to win the contest -- as if most people hadn't already assured themselves he was going to. Link looked good last round, for sure, and he has for the entire contest. But I think Cloud has been the more impressive of the two for most of the contest, save for perhaps the last round. That said, he's still lacked that one match that completely blows everyone away, which means...

IT'S TIME FOR CLOUD/SONIC 2k3 PART 2 BELIEVE

The percentage area that Cloud needs to hit to start getting serious talk about upsetting Link is ~40%. If he can hit that, all of a sudden he's looking to be right up there with Link's 45% -- especially with stronger competition here. The likelihood of him doing so is, admittedly, not too big, but if there is ever a chance for him to put up big numbers against noteworthy competition, this is it. It doesn't get much better than two strong “noble niners” and Ryu, in this format.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/28/2007 9:26:10 PM | message detail | #279
Coming up with any reason for him to do so is a bit difficult, though. It's hard to point to one thing in particular that makes Cloud look as good as he has. He hasn't had a game within the past year, there are no hyped releases coming up, and we have seen him in this type of format thanks to the Battle Royale. Still, it hasn't stopped him from killing characters left and right, so I'm going to keep shooting high, if for nothing else than fanboyism!

As far as second is concerned, I think Samus is safe to take it. Despite a bad picture and Yoshi hanging around, she still managed to safely beat Mega Man. You could make the argument that Yoshi hurts Mega Man more than Samus, but I doubt it. I could see Mega Man getting slightly more of Yoshi's votes, but Samus is still going to take a big chunk of those. If she can win with all of the factors that were against her last round, she should be safe to take this one.

Ryu shouldn't pose any threat here, either. I've seen some rumblings of Ryu beating out Mega Man, or somehow managing to slip by for second (darn you LFF), but neither are worth consideration. Ryu probably won't be too far from third place, but I don't expect him to do much -- he's going to keep the trend going of last place characters getting hit pretty hard.

cloud to shock believe

Cloud – 43%
Samus – 23%
Mega Man – 19%
Ryu – 15%


Bracket: Cloud > Samus
Vote: Cloud



Yoblazer’s Analysis

After what have inarguably been the three least predictable rounds in contest history, we're finally starting to wind it down. While I don't think these final few rounds will be as full of stunners, we could easily still see a fair bit of wackiness. I consider today's match to be one of the two most boring quarterfinal matches, but even it has its fair share of intrigue and uncertainty.

This match features the remarkable Cloud Strife, the remarkably hot Samus Aran, and the remarkable I-can't-believe-your-old-ass-is-still-this-popular Mega Man and Ryu. Three Noble Niners and an outsider. Naturally, it should stand to reason that the outsider fares little chance. However, and please shackle me up when you think I've divulged too far into crazy town, but I think Ryu does have a puncher's chance. He's held up pretty well in all three rounds, and assuming he does so again and benefits from Samus and Mega Man overlapping fanbases all over each other (Mega Man... you lucky son of a...), he might actually do this again. Sounds insane, sure, but Pikachu beat Dante. Remember that, cry, and don't be so quick to dismiss any "wild" theories about this contest.

I also feel Mega Man has a shot. In the last round, Samus beat him comfortably despite her worst picture ever, but if he actually was the one more handicapped by Yoshi's presence, he could make a much closer fight today. I'm not saying I'm a supporter of that theory, but once again, we've seen far too much crazy crap for me to just passively dismiss it.

Despite this, I still think Samus will win today. She looked very good in her earlier rounds, fantastic in her last match, and she's poised to strike with some awesome pictures this time around. In addition to this, however, I feel Cloud will utilize the fanbase overlap between Samus and Mega Man en route to another surprisingly strong performance. In fact, I think it will get the Cloud>Link wheels churning once more despite what Bible Link just did. When will you people learn. =P

Cloud Strife - 40%
Samus Aran - 23%
Mega Man - 21%
Ryu - 16%



Lopen’s Analysis

Crunch time for Mr. Nimbus. Gotta look good, so he can hope to beat Li-- hoho... Master Chief, later. A big step up are Mega Man and Samus from SFFed Auron and Marcus Fenix, and this should bring Cloud down to earth a bit.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/28/2007 9:26:55 PM | message detail | #280
If you'll scroll down to my percentages which you no doubt all do, you'll see that these %s are pretty wack. Ryu not losing much more than 2% despite much tougher competition? Mega Man reversing last round's result and with authority? Cloud barely breaking 30%? Yes, yes, and yes. First I'll start with the one that really isn't that important to this match.

Yes, you guessed it... Mr. Classic Look™ himself. Your days of kicking the crap out of people while they're getting their arms held behind their backs are over. You shifty bastard. Shifty... and a tactical genius. Now... why the hell do I have him at 18.07%!? He only got around 20% last round despite much weaker competition. Well, if you'll recall, there's this thing we like to call The Fighting Spirit. Ryu's fanbase is hardcore at this point... Ryu is the symbol of fighting games on GameFAQs. That same stuff that never lets him fall below 40% 1v1, it's coming into play here, and in a big way. And you've gotta figure he might get some more support when he doesn't look like that dork from SF1 and instead looks like the guy from a game we've actually played. (I doubted the pic factor... Solid **** set me back in line... I'm gonna go back to overrating it, okay?)

Now okay... Ryu's going to do better than he should, great, doesn't matter for points anyway so who cares? Why the hell does Mega Man reverse last round's loss? I direct you to my argument for Ganondorf vs Luigi. Now, like Pigman, Samus has more overall popularity... but... like Luigi, I think Mega Man is more popular among the Nintendo fanbase. Now in a match with mostly Nintendo, Mega Man's popularity advantage with the Nintendo faithful isn't enough for him to win... (slight miscalculation on my part) however, now Ryu and especially Cloud serve as big time outlier vote nukes. Those who aren't primarily Nintendo voters? Man, they're going to Cloud. So Samus loses her outside flank, and Mega Man GETS EQUIPPED WITH SHOT SAMUS IN THE FACE BUSTER. And that's it, the end for Ms. Aran.

In addition... ultimately, I don't think Samus holds up very well in multiway polls, when the competition gets serious. I mean, I know she had Mario and Link there to deal with last year... but 7%? Pitiful. I seriously considered having her in last here before last round. (As for Cloud doing "poorly," it's just because his competition really ramped up. No fancy argument from me here.)

Lopen's prediction:
Cloud - 32.98%
Mega Man - 26.04%
Samus - 23.91%
Ryu - 18.07%



Karma Hunter’s Analysis

Samus Aran

Overcomes a godawful picture and potentially being hurt by Yoshi to easily beat Mega Man despite an early scare. Today's match could be brutal for the Blue Bomber...

Mega Man

See above.

Cloud Strife

Our #2 actually looking like he might have a .001% chance of upending our #1 just got a lot more silent as Link puts up a stellar performance on Crono/Vincent/Zero. Cloud needs to up the ante significantly here if he wants the biggest question of the finals to be something other than what involves L-Block...

Ryu

Mr. Independence's run ends here, but what a run it's been. Or, at least... it *should*...

Cloud comes in first, but it's also important to see what he gets. I'm gonna call for him to get higher than I think he will... and if he gets it, I still won't call him the favorite against Link. But he'll at least still have his little .001% chance to cling to.

Meanwhile, we've got the Mega Man/Samus 'battle', which is all but decided. No Yoshi and no terrible Samus sprite means that MM is all but certain to take a heavy beatdown. MAYBE he stands a chance if Yoshi hurt him more than Samus... but, wtf would that mean?
Master Moltar | Posted 10/28/2007 9:27:36 PM | message detail | #281
And then there's Ryu. The clear weakest character in the match, he's holding out for some MAJOR MM/Samus overlap, Cloud going nuts and driving everyone down, along with SF4 hype and the match of his life. Yeah.

Pretty cut and dry, I think. Which means it should be anything but, but that won't stop me from predicting it!

Karma Hunter's Vote: Cloud Strife. Wow, it took a long time for me to vote for him! <3 Cloud
Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Cloud Strife with 40%, Samus Aran with 25%, Mega Man with 20%, Ryu with 15%

How... plain.

Upset Probability: 20%

As cut and dry as this match seems, there's still slight, *almost* non-trivial chances for MM and Ryu to make noise here. Overlap, format dynamics, Samus getting ZSS in all her pictures... it could happen! <.<



Transience’s Analysis

woo, round 4. man, this thing is over in one week's time.

uhh, not much to say here. three Noble Niners and a guy who always does well. it's highly likely that Samus was hurt by Yoshi more than Mega Man was due to sharing the same game as him. throw in that Samus has impressed against Cloud in the past and that she's going to get a better picture than that 8-bit mess last round and you've almost definitely got a Cloud > Samus result. heck, I even think Ryu hurts Mega Man more than Samus for whatever reason. I think the only thing that will give people second thoughts is a ZSS picture.

really, this match is all about Cloud. he's looked good for three rounds in a row. can he continue to keep hope alive against the juggernaut that is Link? I think he does pretty well here, but still loses to Link in the end. again, not much to say here until we see what actually happens. Cloud has no chance of losing first place and Samus/MM get Clinkeroth next round.

Samus with a good
picture? no Yoshi to hold
her back? second place.

transience's prediction: Cloud with 40.33%, Samus with 26.01%, Mega Man with 20.44%, Ryu with 13.22%



Crew Consensus: Cloud > Samus is heavily agreed upon.
th3l3fty | Posted 10/28/2007 9:43:34 PM | message detail | #282
No Guest analysis?

...

th3l3fty's analysis
There isn't really much to say about this match. The two who will advance are practically a lock, and possibly the only thing that could give Mega Man a glimpse of hope would be Brawl - that is, if Samus weren't already in Brawl.

The real interesting thing is whether Cloud can break 40% with two other NNers in the four-pack. Cloud may be a monster, but the combination of Samus and Mega Man will prevent him from reaching that 40 this time.

Also, you've gotta feel sorry for Ryu. There's no conceivable way Ryu manages to put up decent numbers; not with this group!

th3l3fty's prediction:
Samus Aran - 25.55%
Mega Man - 20.21%
Cloud Strife - 39.63%
Ryu (Street Fighter) - 14.61%
---
Knight of the Cross of Sir Chris' Court
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/28/2007 10:21:53 PM | message detail | #283
Sorry about the no writeup today. I threw my back out, and I probably have to go to the hospital tomorrow.

~*ST*~
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Petition for a system notification when a contribution is removed: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=37308859
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/28/2007 11:31:08 PM | message detail | #284
Crono vs. Raiden vs. Zero vs. HK-47
First Place
+8 KH
+7 Lo
+6 Yo
+5 Guest
+4 tran
+3 HM (tie)
+3 Ulti (tie)
+1 Mo

Second Place
+8 Guest
+7 Ulti
+6 KH (tie)
+6 Yo (tie)
+4 tran
+3 HM (tie)
+3 Mo (tie)
+0 Lo


Luigi vs. Mudkip vs. Ganondorf vs. Vergil
First Place
+8 Guest
+7 HM
+6 Lo
+5 Ulti
+4 Mo
+3 tran
+2 KH
+1 Yo

Second Place
+8 tran
+7 Guest
+6 Ulti
+5 HM
+4 Lo
+3 Mo
+2 Yo
+0 KH


Master Chief vs. Yuna vs. Liquid Snake vs. Alucard
First Place
+8 Lo
+7 KH
+6 tran
+5 Guest
+4 HM (tie)
+4 Yo (tie)
+2 Ulti
+1 Mo

Second Place
+8 Mo
+7 Guest
+6 KH (tie)
+6 Yo (tie)
+4 Ulti
+3 HM
+2 Lo
+0 tran


Dante vs. Amaterasu vs. Ada Wong vs. Balthier Bunansa
First Place
+8 Guest
+7 Mo
+6 Ulti
+5 tran
+4 Lo
+3 Yo
+2 HM
+0 KH

Second Place
+0 Guest
+0 HM
+0 KH
+0 Lo
+0 Mo
+0 tran
+0 Ulti
+0 Yo


Pikachu vs. Tidus vs. Leon Kennedy vs. Vivi
First Place
+8 tran
+7 Guest
+6 KH (tie)
+6 Yo (tie)
+4 Lo
+3 Mo
+2 HM (tie)
+2 Ulti (tie)

Second Place
+8 KH
+7 Guest
+0 HM
+0 Lo
+0 Mo
+0 tran
+0 Ulti
+0 Yo


Kirby vs. L-Block vs. Kratos vs. Donkey Kong
First Place
+8 tran
+7 HM (tie)
+7 Mo (tie)
+5 Lo
+4 Yo
+3 Guest
+2 Ulti
+0 KH

Second Place
+8 tran
+7 HM
+0 Guest
+0 KH
+0 Lo
+0 Mo
+0 Ulti
+0 Yo


Solid Snake vs. Nightmare vs. Ryu Hayabusa vs. Riku
First Place
+8 Yo
+7 tran
+6 KH
+5 Guest
+4 HM (tie)
+3 Ulti (tie)
+2 Mo
+1 Lo

Second Place
+8 HM
+7 Guest
+0 KH
+0 Lo
+0 Mo
+0 tran
+0 Ulti
+0 Yo


Squall Leonhart vs. Aeris Gainsborough vs. Sora vs. Lara Croft
First Place
+8 Yo
+7 Lo
+6 HM (tie)
+6 Ulti (tie)
+4 Mo
+3 Guest
+2 tran
+0 KH

Second Place
+8 Lo
+7 Ulti
+6 Guest
+0 Mo
+0 HM
+0 Yo
+0 tran
+0 KH


Duke Nukem vs. Gordon Freeman vs. Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Sub-Zero
First Place
+8 KH
+7 Mo
+6 tran
+5 Yo
+4 Guest
+3 Lo
+2 Ulti
+1 HM

Second Place
+8 KH
+7 Lo
+6 HM (tie)
+6 Yo (tie)
+4 tran
+3 Mo (tie)
+3 Ulti (tie)
+1 Guest


Mega Man vs. Yoshi vs. Samus Aran vs. Scorpion
First Place
+8 Yo
+7 tran
+6 Mo
+5 HM
+4 Ulti
+3 Guest
+2 KH
+1 Lo

Second Place
+8 Mo (tie)
+8 Ulti (tie)
+6 KH (tie)
+6 Yo (tie)
+4 tran
+3 HM
+2 Guest
+1 Lo


Cloud Strife vs. Marcus Fenix vs. Auron vs. Ryu
First Place
+8 HM (tie)
+8 Guest (tie)
+6 Ulti (tie)
+6 Yo (tie)
+4 tran
+3 KH (tie)
+3 Mo (tie)
+1 Lo

Second Place
+8 Guest
+7 KH (tie)
+7 Mo (tie)
+5 Ulti
+4 Lo
+0 HM
+0 tran
+0 Yo
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/28/2007 11:32:32 PM | message detail | #285
Sephiroth vs. Fox McCloud vs. Mario vs. Big Boss
First Place
+8 Ulti
+7 Lo
+6 HM (tie)
+6 Mo (tie)
+4 Yo
+3 tran
+2 KH
+1 Guest

Second Place
+8 Lo
+7 tran
+6 Yo
+5 HM (tie)
+5 KH (tie)
+5 Mo (tie)
+2 Ulti
+1 Guest


Link vs. Vincent Valentine vs. Crono vs. Zero
First Place
+8 tran
+7 Guest
+6 Mo
+5 KH (tie)
+5 Yo (tie)
+3 Ulti
+2 HM
+1 Lo

Second Place
+8 KH (tie)
+8 Yo (tie)
+6 Mo
+5 Lo
+4 Ulti
+3 HM
+0 Guest
+0 tran


Ganondorf vs. Luigi vs. Master Chief vs. Yuna
First Place
+8 Mo
+7 Yo
+6 KH
+5 Guest
+4 tran
+3 HM
+2 Lo
+1 Ulti

Second Place
+8 Guest
+7 Yo
+6 Lo
+5 KH
+4 tran
+0 Mo
+0 Ulti
+0 HM


Dante vs. Amaterasu vs. Leon Kennedy vs. Pikachu
First Place
+0 Guest
+0 HM
+0 KH
+0 Lo
+0 Mo
+0 tran
+0 Ulti
+0 Yo

Second Place
+8 HM (tie)
+8 Ulti (tie)
+6 KH (tie)
+6 Yo (tie)
+4 Mo
+3 Lo
+2 Guest
+0 tran


Kratos vs. L-Block vs. Solid Snake vs. Riku
First Place
+8 tran
+7 Yo
+6 Lo
+5 KH (tie)
+5 Mo (tie)
+3 Ulti
+2 HM
+1 Guest

Second Place
+8 Mo (tie)
+8 tran (tie)
+8 KH (tie)
+8 Yo (tie)
+4 Lo
+3 HM (tie)
+3 Ulti (tie)
+1 Guest


Squall Leonhart vs. Sora vs. Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Sub-Zero
First Place
+8 HM
+7 Lo (tie)
+7 Yo (tie)
+5 Guest (tie)
+5 Mo (tie)
+5 Ulti (tie)
+2 KH
+1 tran

Second Place
+8 Ulti
+7 HM (tie)
+7 Mo (tie)
+5 Lo
+4 Yo
+3 Guest
+2 KH
+0 tran



Overall Rankings
1. Master Moltar (532)
2. Yoblazer33 (526)
3. Heroic Mario (473)
4. transience (469)
5. Board 8 (463)
6. Karma Hunter (455)
7. Lopen (427)
8. UltimaterializerX (411)


Barring two separate collapses, this one, like the series contest, has come down between Moltar and me. The battle for third, however, is still tight. Looks to be an exciting finish!
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Big Bob | Posted 10/29/2007 1:03:42 PM | message detail | #286
Sorry about the no writeup today. I threw my back out, and I probably have to go to the hospital tomorrow.

I hope you feel better so you can come and write up about how obvious Master Chief > Dante is!
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It was merely a simple greeting. A friendly tap on the shoulder... with my whip.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/29/2007 8:31:19 PM | message detail | #287
Quarterfinals: Match 58 – Sephiroth vs. Mario vs. Link vs. Vincent Valentine

Moltar’s Analysis

Sephiroth - Guess long swords and silver hair are still in.
Round 1 – 55.23% vs. Meta Knight, Peach and CATS
Round 2 – 57.11% vs. Fox, Meta Knight and Wario
Round 3 – 45.85% vs. Mario, Big Boss and Fox

Another decent Seph performance.

Mario - If you aren’t hyped for Galaxy, be ashamed of yourself.
Round 1 – 57.91% vs. Big Boss, Pac-Man and Wander
Round 2 – 46.60% vs. Big Boss, Magus and Phoenix
Round 3 – 35.08% vs. Sephiroth, Big Boss and Fox

Mario does well for himself against a Clinkeroth beast.

Link - Refuses to not impress
Round 1 – 70.50% vs. Bidoof, Miles and Agent J
Round 2 – 51.19% vs. Vincent, Bidoof and Zelda
Round 3 – 45.37% vs. Vincent, Crono and Zero

More great numbers from Link.

Vincent - Bah Gawd! Noble Nine killa!
Round 1 – 38.68% vs. Zelda, The Boss and Tails
Round 2 – 27.75% vs. Link, Bidoof and Zelda
Round 3 – 21.78% vs. Link, Crono and Zero

Vincent speeds past Crono to get to Round 4.

Previously, Link once again came across Vincent, but this time, Crono appeared and took Vincent off Crono’s hand. After an intense fight between the two, both used their strongest attacks to try and defeat the other. Only one was left standing after the attacks, while Link continued on.

The Setting – The outskirts of the city where the CB6 is being held.


Link: I’m almost there, I can see the dome where the contest is being held! *Just then a gunshot flies past Link’s head, and he spins around* Vincent, you’re alive?!

Vincent: *breathing heavily* That’s right. I told you I would defeat you once and for all, and not even Crono could stop me.

Link: *to himself* He actually beat Crono? I definitely can’t hold back against him.

*Meanwhile, at a secret location, with a familiar song playing in the bakground*

???: Link has come too far. I need for you to make sure he goes no further.

???: Don’t worry, master. I will make sure Link does not reach the dome alive.

*Back at the city outskirts, Link and Vincent clash weapons, and in an attempt to save space, I’ll leave this part up to you, the reader. Just imagine some flashy 5 minute fight with crazy moves and flashy effects. It’s like a big-budget fight scene that everyone goes all crazy over. Yeah, just like that. Anyway, after that…*

Link: I’ve got you! *Link swings his sword, knocking Vincent’s guns out of his hand. Link then holds his sword to Vincent’s throat.*

Vincent: It..can’t end like this.

*Just then, a familiar tune blasts out from the heavens*

Link: What’s this music I’m hearing…I know this song. It’s One Winged Angel, the #1 song on my iTunes playlist, he’s here!

*Sephiroth descends from the skies, his sword pointed towards the ground.*

Sephiroth: We meet again, Link! I can’t wait to put an end to you once and for al-.

*The sound of a blade piercing through skin is heard, and then Link notices that Sephiroth, unaware to the fact, had impaled Mario, who was covienently on the scene.*

Sephiroth: Whoops, I really need to watch where I point this thing.

Link: MAAARRRIIIOOO!!!

*Link charges at Sephiroth, and Seph defends by swinging his sword. Link dodges, but Vincent get slashed.*

Sephiroth: Dammit I suck today. *Link swings his sword at Sephiroth, and Seph is just barely able to defend himself. Just then, a voice from the heavens calls out.*

???: Sephiroth, return, there’s been a change of plans.

Sephiroth: I see, then our match has to be cut short. Farewell, Link. *Sephiorth takes off before Link is able to stop him*
Master Moltar | Posted 10/29/2007 8:32:21 PM | message detail | #288
Link: Who was that voice? Who’s behind all of this. *Looks over at Vincent, and then Mario* I’ve got to put a stop to whoever they are, and I think this Character Battle has something to do with it. I’ve got to get to the arena! *Link takes off towards the dome*

~*Part 4: Fin*~

This is fun. Link SFF’s Mario, Seph SFF’s Vincent. Link stuns everyone with a great performance, while Seph looks…as decent as he can get. Mario and Vincent end up far behind with…hmmm…Mario taking third.

Moltar’s Match Pic: http://img369.imageshack.us/img369/383/gfaqssephmariolinkvincejr4.png

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Link > Sephiroth

Moltar’s Prediction is: Link: 44% - Sephiroth: 33% - Mario: 12% - Vincent: 11%



Ulti’s Analysis

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2563

WE'VE ALREADY SEEN THIS POLL, KTHANKS.

Link > Sephiroth is, um.... really really obvious. For Mario or Vincent to pull off second place, they have to resist the ass end of SFF from Link and Sephiroth. Yeah, good luck with that.

Ulti's Prediction:
Link [35.00%]
Sephiroth [31.00%]
Vincent [18.00%]
Mario [16.00%]



Heroic Mario’s Analysis

There is seriously almost nothing I can really say about this match. It's the least exciting one we have of this round by far. The only thing we could take away from this is by how much Link wins, and if it's by more than Sephiroth and Vincent combined. Even then, it's nothing that you could apply to the final because of the SFF involved.

I suppose there might be some entertainment in Vincent and Mario, though. Normally, Vincent doesn't stand much of a chance at that one, but throwing Link into the mix makes that pretty interesting. Nintendo SFF is almost always more severe than Square SFF, and I'd expect Vincent to hold up a bit better than Mario will here, even if it's just by a smidge. Okay, so probably not, but Vincent placing ahead of two noble niners in one contest would be pretty awesome!

But yeah, boring match, nothing to see here; bring on the Chief and Dante!

Link – 40%
Sephiroth – 30%
Vincent – 15%
Mario – 15%


Bracket: Link > Sephiroth
Vote: Sephiroth



Yoblazer’s Analysis

Welcome, one and all, to what I like to call "the calm before the storm." We have two unbelievably insane, laughably unpredictable matches on the horizon, so it ain't too bad a thing that we tackle an easy match to get us ready for the roller coaster. The match itself features Link, Mario, Sephiroth, and Vincent, and it's obvious at first glance who will move on and at what order, but let's analyze it a teeny bit, anyway.

The clear favorite here is Link. He's the strongest character in contest history, and he'll once again prove that today. In fact, I expect this to be Link's finest performance thus far (yes, even topping last round's killing). You see, in each of his first three matches, Link has had a pesky nuisance holding him back. In the first two rounds, it was that little beaver, Bidoof. In Round 3, it was a crappy picture coupled with the Crono/Vincent war, which was undoubtedly the most hyped in-match match of the contest and may have likely overvalued both of them. This time around, Link is free to go ballistic on his foes. We know who moves on, there is nothing to debate, there are no joke characters to suck away votes, and there will be picture equality. Prepare to be dazzled.

Sephiroth, the infamous Final Fantasy VII villain, will finish in a distant, but safe, second place. He won very comfortably against Mario last round, and while Vincent may steal some of his support here, it will be little more than a whisper compared to the beating Link is going to lay down on poor, poor Mario.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/29/2007 8:32:52 PM | message detail | #289
In fact, other than Link's final percentage, the battle between Mario and Vincent is probably the most interesting thing about this match. Mario is clearly the stronger character, but he'll also be much more handicapped by Link's SFF. In comparison, I think Vincent will hold up relatively well against Sephiroth, so it could be a tight one. I'll give them equal percentage, but I think Vincent will juuuust pull it out. Fear the Hero of Time as we brace ourselves for two days of chaos, my friends.

Link - 42%
Sephiroth - 30%
Vincent Valentine - 14%
Mario - 14%



Lopen’s Analysis

This match is boring. Link SFFs Mario, Sephiroth SFFs Vincent. Not much room for upsets here. Without Vincent maybe Seph could upset Link. Without Link maybe Mario could upset Vincent... but what are we left with? Boring match.

From the opening minutes of the poll, Vincent went to work, sucking off Sephiroth's support... but Sephiroth's blue bar remained strong... firm. And even with its true length concealed because of Vincent's transgressions, it still dwarfed Mario's pitiful sliver, even from the beginning. But as the night hours began... Sephiroth began to rise... rise to monsterous proportions. Vincent sucked away as best as he could, and began to rise in turn. Hours passed... as the night went on, Sephiroth and Vincent came on harder and harder... it was unsure who was sucking away more of the other's support at this point. Link and Mario had never seen such stiff competition. They could only watch in horror as the two reached a climax in strength around six hours into the poll. And then... it was over. The morning came, the kiddies woke up.. and decency was restored to the poll as Sephiroth and Vincent's monsterous blue bars they'd erected began to recede.

I'm sorry, but... this match is boring. Like most of you people read these things anyway.

Lopen's prediction:
Link - 37.30%
Sephiroth - 29.69%
Mario - 20.32%
Vincent - 12.69%



Karma Hunter’s Analysis

The one 'lock' of the round, so let's breeze past it as painlessly as possible.

Sephiroth

Whatever doubts Sephy's cut-and-dry path had were utterly silenced as he cruises easily over Mario to his inevitable coming in second to Link here.

Mario

Gets stuck with an awful draw with Fox in the match, and does... well, disappointing even relative to that. At least he won't be restrained by that anymore oh wait there's a Link in the way

Link

Dominates even relative to his expectations last round. And if that didn't put the cap on any crazy Seph > Link due to Mario expectations people had, there's always...

Vincent Valentine

The man who would be a NN breaker, VV edges out Crono in a big comeback en route to a comfortable 'upset' that you could hardly call as such when it happened. He'll be hurt by Sephy, but the big man will be drained just the same.

Which means the sole, only two questions are - 1.) How good will Link do? and 2.) Who comes in third; Vincent or Mario? The answer to the first question is that Link will come out pulverizing, easily shutting down most of the fledgling support Cloud's garnered from his great performance today. The answer to the second is that it's probably Vincent - Nintendo SFF is *bad*, even for Mario... I can't see Vincent get hurt enough after seeing how Mario choked up the BR last year.

Meaning...!

Karma Hunter's Vote: Mario. IT'S A ME
Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Link with 40.11%, Sephiroth with 29.32%, Vincent Valentine with 15.68%, Mario with 14.89%,

whoa whoa decimals what



Transience’s Analysis

boring match today. Link is stronger than Sephiroth, Sephiroth is stronger than Mario and Mario/Vincent means that we can't really draw any conclusions due to SFF.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/29/2007 8:33:28 PM | message detail | #290
you can make a case for Sephiroth > Link - Sephiroth isn't THAT much weaker than Link, he's impressed the last couple of rounds and Mario is certainly more independent to Link than Vincent is to Sephiroth. the only problem here is that we watched Mario in the Battle Royale last year with Link, and he just got creamed. you'd think he's get some "come on, it's freaking Mario" votes, but Nintendo fans here heavily prefer their Guy in Green to Mario. plus, we've never seen Sephiroth vs. anything other than Cloud -- who's to say he's going to crush Vincent? Vincent's quite the fan-favourite and Sephiroth is barely playable. I could see Vincent holding up decently there. the real battle for this match will be SFFed Vincent vs. SFFed Mario. woo, what a match!

fortunately, the next two matches are so much better.

SFF matches
gauging them is impossible
won't tell us a thing

transience's prediction: Link with 39.55%, Sephiroth with 32.06%, Vincent with 14.50%, Mario with 13.89%



Crew Consensus: Link > Seph yawn
trannyscience | Posted 10/29/2007 8:35:37 PM | message detail | #291
augh not more sephiroth erotic fanfiction

wake me up in 24 hours!
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/29/2007 8:36:00 PM | message detail | #292
I call dibs on the final match as a guest
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Hochiminh155's Trail to Victory
Future winner of the Summer 2007 Contest
goku z | Posted 10/29/2007 8:36:47 PM | message detail | #293
Silly kids. Mario will take third easily. Mark it down.
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ad hominem
appealing to one's prejudices, emotions, or special interests rather than to one's intellect or reason.
Luis_Sera89 | Posted 10/29/2007 8:39:49 PM | message detail | #294
guest what what
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"Eet's game time..."
th3l3fty | Posted 10/29/2007 8:52:54 PM | message detail | #295
Quick, someone do a Guest write-up!
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Knight of the Cross of Sir Chris' Court
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
PokemonPatriarch | Posted 10/29/2007 9:00:43 PM | message detail | #296
Done!

***We interrupt your regularly scheduled program***

1st in this poll is obvious: "THEY TOOK OUR JERBS!!"

2nd: "Oh my god, they killed Kenny!"

The battle for last place is much closer, though...

3rd: *insert South Park Pet Cemetary reference here*

4th: "You bastards!"

Clearly, SFF will get the better of "you bastards, and will help "jerbs" clinch the top spot easily.
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Ogre Battle saga fanboy, and hopeless supporter of Lans Tartare for CB2K8!
Lopen | Posted 10/29/2007 9:05:44 PM | message detail | #297
I love how Ashe signed up for this match within ten minutes of them being posted and then flaked out. If you "don't have the time" to do a write-up or "lose interest" that easily don't sign up for them, especially not after ten minutes. Give me a break.

And by the way... I'm loving this mysterious master character who's planning the downfall of Link. I wonder what sort of master character could do that.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
th3l3fty | Posted 10/29/2007 9:24:41 PM | message detail | #298
Guest analysis? Anyone?
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Knight of the Cross of Sir Chris' Court
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/29/2007 9:26:54 PM | message detail | #299
Guest Analysis - yoblazer's inner fanboy

lolololol is this web site serious

Link - 70%
Mario - 30%
Vincent - lol
Sephiroth - XD
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
th3l3fty | Posted 10/29/2007 9:28:24 PM | message detail | #300
>___>
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Knight of the Cross of Sir Chris' Court
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
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