GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VI Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/22/2007 7:53:19 AM | message detail | #201 |
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Mega Man.........30.43% 45857 Yoshi.................19.13% 28823 Samus Aran.......33.1% 49872 Scorpion...........17.34% 26126 TOTAL VOTES..............150678 26.17% of the brackets predicted 1st correctly. 17.17% of the brackets predicted 2nd correctly. 48.12% of the brackets predicted 1st to come in 2nd. 35.44% of the brackets predicted 2nd to come in 1st. Crew Predictions: Fully Correct - 32; Half Correct - 15; Barely Correct - 2 MM almost pulled the upset, but Samus took charge once morning hit and never looked back. Crew Prediction Challenge - Yo gets the point. Guest (Turtle "2", Kleenex, Who Cares?, Sensi, Luis, XII, l3fty, Gadds, Bob) - 10 Lopen - 8 HM - 7 Yoblazer - 7 KH - 5 Tran - 4 Moltar - 3 Ulti - 2 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Yo gets the point for Samus and Scorpion, Ulti and Moltar get points for MM, and Moltar and HM gets points for Yoshi. Yoblazer - 39 Guest (Bokonon_Lives "2", Dp, Turtle "5", Ashe "2", Kleenex "3", Who Cares? "3", chocobo, Richard, Xcarvenger "2", Sensi, Darunia, satai "3", Bio "2", Luis "2", XIII "2", l3fty, Gadds, Bob, Ed) - 35 HM - 34 Lopen - 28 Moltar - 24 Ulti - 22 Tran - 21 KH - 20 --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Cloud/Marcus/Auron/Ryu - Bracket: Cloud > Ryu - Vote: Auron (231/272) |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/22/2007 9:06:08 PM | message detail | #202 |
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Division 3: Round 3 - Match 51 – Sephiroth vs. Fox McCloud vs. Mario vs. Big Boss Moltar’s Analysis Sephiroth Round 1 – 55.23% vs. Meta Knight, Peach and CATS Round 2 – 57.11% vs. Fox, Meta Knight and Wario Seph does better here than in Round 1 Fox Round 1 – 45.63% vs. Wario, Capt. Falcon and Banjo Round 2 – 19.74% vs. Sephiroth, Meta Knight and Wario Here’s some non-Nintendo competitors for ya! Mario Round 1 – 57.91% vs. Big Boss, Pac-Man and Wander Round 2 – 46.60% vs. Big Boss, Magus and Phoenix Mario smash. Big Boss Round 1 – 23.00% vs. Mario, Pac-Man and Wander Round 2 – 24.89% vs. Mario, Magus and Phoenix Oh you… Another match with two Noble Nine characters who will easily advance over the other lowly competition. Whoo… First up, there’s Big Boss. He advanced last round over Magus, who’s just one big ball of disappointment, pathetic and sad right now. Sure, he had a Naked Snake picture, but with the margin between the two, it looks like the picture wouldn’t have made a difference. Still, he takes last here with his Big **** sprite. Then there’s Fox. He’s looked good so far because 5 out of his 6 competitors have been Nintendo. Now he’s got the father of Nintendo in the poll, so he gets killed here. Mario > Sephiroth is an upset all of us are hoping for, but just isn’t going to happen. After Round 1, there was a slim chance, but Seph rebounded in Round 2, and Mario hasn’t really done anything to WOW us. Still, that doesn’t mean we can’t keep the hope alive! Moltar’s Bracket Says: Sephiroth > Mario Moltar’s Prediction is: Sephiroth: 44% - Mario: 32% - Fox: 13% - Big Boss: 11% Heroic Mario’s Analysis Mario upset? I don’t think so! This should be the most uninteresting match of the round. We know how this match is going to play out and there’s nothing here that can really get anyone talking since first and second place are locked up. Even the Sephiroth/Mario match isn’t all that important given that any chances of an upset have been silenced -- and both of their paths are cut and dry. Still, I’m looking at this match to see what Sephiroth does. He came out looking impressive last around, beating his round 1 percentage by a couple of points, and I’m expecting him to continue looking pretty good here. Cloud is showing signs that he’s potentially got what it takes to beat Link, so maybe that’s extended a bit over to other FF7 characters as well. Where the expectations stand for this one, though, I have no idea – I suspect somewhere in the lower 40s. Out of all the possibilities for this match, this is probably the most ideal for Sephiroth. With Magus having lost to Big Boss, he doesn’t have to worry about any “leeching” of the Square fanbase – he’s the strongest character here by far and he’s the only Square character. With Fox here to disrupt Mario a smidge, I don’t think it’s outside of the realm of possibility to see Sephiroth beat Mario by over 10%, though that’s undoubtedly fanboying the percentage up a bit! But yeah, there’s not a whole lot to see here. Sephiroth wins; Mario takes second, Big Boss and Fox fight for whatever is leftover. No chance of an upset, no performances that matter – boring match. Sephiroth – 44% Mario – 32% Big Boss – 14% Fox McCloud – 10% Bracket: Mario > Sephiroth (darn you tran) Vote: Sephiroth |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/22/2007 9:06:37 PM | message detail | #203 |
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Yoblazer’s Analysis Welcome, one and all, to what can only in all fairness be called the worst match of Round 3! Wooo party, get the maracas! We know which two characters will advance and what their respective order will be, so other than trying to predict whether Fox or Big Boss will suck less ass, my only challenge here is to see if I can make this analysis longer than Ulti's. Here's to ultimate success! Sephiroth has had Mario's number for years and looked beastly in his last match, so he'll take first place here. While Mario won't challenge Seph, he's light years beyond his other two competitors, one of whom will get SFF'd severely and the other who is cursed with what may be the worst picture we have ever seen. Hey, I hear you still typing! Don't even think about it, Ulti! Sephiroth - 43% Mario - 34% Big Boss - 12% Fox McCloud - 11% Lopen’s Analysis Solid ****? Meet Big ****. I love this ****. ****** pictures all around... except for Sephiroth. Oh, I guess Mario's is okay. Most asterisks in an analysis that doesn't involve Tingle ever? Quite possible, my dear man... quite possible. But tut tut, let's stop that and analyze in a civilzed fashion, eh old chap? ... what is there to this one? See how ridiculously Sephiroth maims Fox and Big Boss? See how bad he maims Mario too? Mario certainly doesn't like Fox trying to get in on his mushroom stash... oh, he'll beat him away, but not before Sephiroth has impaled Mario on the end of his long... sleek... hard... Masamune. ... ... Okay, you know a match is boring when I'm resorting to innuendo involving Sephiroth's massive sword. That's quite enough of that! Nothing interesting here, folks. Lopen's prediction: Sephiroth - 44.45% Mario - 35.02% Fox McCloud - 11.56% Big Boss - 8.99% Karma Hunter’s Analysis *sigh* You know it has to happen every year, and yet when it does you still find it hard not to be surprised... Sephiroth Outdoing his first round percentage and basically quelling any notion of an upset being staged against him. Not that he needed it, as even if he would normally lose to Mario there's Fox in the match, while Big Boss did half the work for him by eliminating Magus. Villains stick together I guess... Fox McCloud A solid run ends here, and joy of joys - we don't have a read on Fox. Even by this format's standards, which is saying something. Not like I doubt him coming back (since winning matches seems to matter more than straight X-Stats, least how I figure), but considering his hilarious picture here I don't think we'll be changing that around today. Oh, can't forget the SFF FROM FREAKIN' MARIO Mario He's looked good, but he hasn't looked Clinkeroth good. Neither did Sephy last year, but with that out of the way and a drain on him here Mario is going to look BAD here, methinks. Questionable 'favorite' status and just being weaker in every way aside though, he's the one guy who probably welcomes his sprite. yay Jumpman |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/22/2007 9:07:25 PM | message detail | #204 |
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Big Boss An awesome Magus sprite? Ignoring ridiculosity in favor of hopes upon hopes, another awesome Phoenix pic? Nope, there's some Metal Gear in the way - and after completing one of the sexiest upset picks transience could remember (such a short-lived one, too... L-Block steals all the thunder), he's saddled with something WORSE than his old man pictures. It's not even his Metal Gear 2 picture with the funny hat, or his Sean Connery shot (oh mans BB for first with that!). There has not been a picture so bad for Metal Gear since the original Solid ****, and this is a character that very well may not have made the second round (and wouldn't have performed NEARLY as well regardless) without getting a boost from a picture of a different kind. Oh, Magus, you're not going to look good at all when this is over... Fortunately this match has the Kay Aitch trademark "Lock of the Round" stamped all over it, as it would take a miracle to see Sephiroth drop this, and several more magnitudes of one to see either Sephy or Mario not place. There's gonna be some tossup for Big Boss/Fox, especially *now*, and I'm gonna be pessimistic and hand the empty victory to Fox on a platter. SFF, meet your match. ...what? Can you tell my pessimism for L-Block > Snake is growing? Karma Hunter's Vote: Big Boss. Because anything else... would be voting for something that's not an unrecognizable blob! Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Sephiroth with 40%, Mario with 32%, Fox McCloud with 15%, Big Boss with 13% SFF affairs are the WORST, no matter what format you disguise them in. <.< Upset Probability: 5% The standard 'anything can happen' upset probability shows exactly how little faith I have in Mario to pull this one off. He just... doesn't have what it takes, is what I'm saying. Not even calling on him to prove me wrong. Let's just get this one over with, and on to something more exciting! Transience’s Analysis pre-contest, this was the one match that actually got less discussion than it deserved. with all the possible Wii influx and Galaxy hype, could Mario beat Sephiroth? no, that wasn't even the biggest question -- wouldn't Magus being in the poll hurt Sephiroth more than Fox (or Peach) would? I talked about it more and more the last few days of the contest, and even convinced Heroic Mario to take the upset. after round 1, when Sephiroth put up a poor percentage, people were talking about it quite a bit, too. but since then? Sephiroth has re-established himself as the Mario Killer. his round 2 match was one of the best performances of round 2. Cloud's looked great too so far if you want to go as far as to draw parallels between the two. meanwhile, Mario's never really looked good in multi-option polls for whatever reason. there's the classic Yoshi Poll. there's all the GOTY stuff where people don't even seem to care that Galaxy exists. there's the battle royale, and while Link may have been in the poll, he didn't even put up much of a fight. I mean, it's friggin' Mario. well, "it's friggin' Mario" has been used twice before against Sephiroth: a.) their 2003 match where Sephiroth absolutely destroyed him 62-38 (one of the more shocking results of all time for me), and then 2005, when he spent two hard months of work owning the main bracket only to get treated like the Midgar Zolom. I can't see any way that he wins this here; Fox is in the poll and Magus isn't, though Big Boss may be just as much of a deterrent as Magus. I think he'll be in good shape if he simply keeps it close, and if Sephiroth destroys him, the craziest upset that no one would consider possible may even get some discussion: Sephiroth > Link thanks to Mario being in the poll. I think Zero would have to advance for people to take that seriously, though. Seph/Mario III no reason for something new Sephiroth will win |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/22/2007 9:08:20 PM | message detail | #205 |
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transience's prediction: Sephiroth with 41.89%, Mario with 34.24%, Big Boss with 12.15%, Fox with 11.72% Guest’s Analysis - Ed Bellis A fairly standard matchup here, with no weird fanbase overlap or any other random factors… presumably. Let’s round up the usual suspects! Sephiroth - Third strongest in the contest overall, Sephy’s had two great first-round performances. Mario - Fourth (or fifth) strongest in the contest, depending on who you ask. Also had two great first-rounders. Big Boss - Here courtesy of a terrific picture, the naysayers nay say. Fox - For the first time this year, the bottom of the Nintendo chain. Two Noble Niners here. Should be obvious who moves on, and since Sephy’s the strongest and there’s nobody to leech off of, he gets first and Mario gets second. I’d be more interested in who gets third or fourth – I’m writing this before Big Boss’s pic is announced, but regardless I still think he’s a pretty strong dude. Fox has proven to be greater than a number of third-tier Nintendo characters, but I can’t see him not getting last here: Mario’s SFF sense is hungry, and Fox MADE LOTSA SPAGHETTI PREDICTION: BORING MATCH IS BORING Sephiroth: 36.35% Mario: 30.88% Big Boss: 20.55% Fox: 12.22% Crew Consensus: Seph > Mario... |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2007 9:09:25 PM | message detail | #206 |
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I love you Ed Bellis --- Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package. |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/22/2007 9:10:59 PM | message detail | #207 |
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oh jesus christ may i please hijack his percentages? <_< ...Well, Moltar? >_____> ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/22/2007 9:20:41 PM | message detail | #208 |
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Ulti's Analysis: Another late round match, another really easy call. We've already seen that Mario can't beat Sephiroth, we've already seen that Mario SFFs all things Nintendo (except maybe Link, but 2002 doesn't count), we've already seen that FF7 SFFs all things Playstation, and we've already seen that Big needs outside help to win matches, be it from SFF or the most favorable match picture ever. And even then, Fox and Big Boss aren't winning. I'd consider Mario over Sephy heads-up, but not with Fox there to screw Mario over. Ulti's Prediction: Sephiroth [45.00%] Mario [39.00%] Big Boss [9.00%] Fox [7.00%] --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Seph/Fox/Mario/Big Boss - Bracket: Seph > Mario - Vote: Big Boss (247/298) |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/22/2007 9:32:47 PM | message detail | #209 |
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oh jesus christ may i please hijack his percentages? <_< ...Well, Moltar? >_____> learn to love it, baby --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Seph/Fox/Mario/Big Boss - Bracket: Seph > Mario - Vote: Big Boss (247/298) |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/23/2007 6:55:08 AM | message detail | #210 |
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Cloud Strife ...49.59% 71041 Marcus Fenix .....12% 17188 Auron..............18.16% 26021 Ryu..................20.25% 29007 TOTAL VOTES...........143257 76.84% of the brackets predicted 1st correctly. 15.96% of the brackets predicted 2nd correctly. 7.11% of the brackets predicted 1st to come in 2nd. 1.43% of the brackets predicted 2nd to come in 1st. Crew Predictions: Fully Correct - 33; Half Correct - 15; Barely Correct - 2 Cloud puts up some monstrous numbers, SFFing Auron so hard that Ryu is able to head on to Round 4. Crew Prediction Challenge - Guest gets the point. Guest (Turtle "2", Kleenex, Who Cares?, Sensi, Luis, XII, l3fty, Gadds, Bob, Bio) - 11 Lopen - 8 HM - 7 Yoblazer - 7 KH - 5 Tran - 4 Moltar - 3 Ulti - 2 Crew Accuracy Challenge - HM and Guest get points for Cloud, Yo gets the point for Ryu, Guest gets the point for Auron, and Tran gets the point for Marcus. Yoblazer - 40 Guest (Bokonon_Lives "2", Dp, Turtle "5", Ashe "2", Kleenex "3", Who Cares? "3", chocobo, Richard, Xcarvenger "2", Sensi, Darunia, satai "3", Bio "4", Luis "2", XIII "2", l3fty, Gadds, Bob, Ed) - 37 HM - 35 Lopen - 28 Moltar - 24 Ulti - 22 Tran - 22 KH - 20 --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Seph/Fox/Mario/Big Boss - Bracket: Seph > Mario - Vote: Big Boss (247/298) |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/23/2007 8:36:59 PM | message detail | #211 |
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Division 4: Round 3 - Match 52 – Link vs. Vincent Valentine vs. Crono vs. Zero Moltar’s Analysis Link Round 1 – 70.50% vs. Bidoof, Miles and Agent J Round 2 – 51.19% vs. Vincent, Bidoof and Zelda Oh Link, you crazy beast you. Vincent Round 1 – 38.68% vs. Zelda, The Boss and Tails Round 2 – 27.75% vs. Link, Bidoof and Zelda Vincent does pretty well for himself. Crono Round 1 – 48.18% vs. Raiden, Sam and Simon Round 2 – 36.65% vs. Zero, Raiden and HK-47 Noble Niner, huh? Zero Round 1 – 39.56% vs. HK-47, Lloyd and Jak Round 2 – 32.64% vs. Crono, Raiden and HK-47 Well, that’s quite the turnaround from Round 1! Previously, Link ran into the powerful character Vincent on his path to the 6th Character Battle. With Vincent holding Zelda hostage, Link could do nothing to stop him. That is, until Bidoof took a blast from Vincent and saved Link. This caused Vincent to retreat, but swore to return to stop Link. The Setting - A grassy field with trees and bushes nearby. Link: This sure is a beautiful day! Clear skies, nice weather. I just wish I could relax. But, I have no time to stop. Gotta get to the Character Battle! *A bullet then whizzes past Link’s head* Link: What was that?! Vincent: Hello again, Link. Link: You! This time you won’t escape! Vincent: I plan to fight you until the death this time. Link: Then let’s go! *Link starts to charge towards Vincent, but another figure appears from out of nowhere in front of Link* ???: … Link: Is that…the red hair, the sword, the Toriyama art-style…Crono! Vincent: Crono… Crono: … Link: What? Are you saying that I should go on ahead to the Character Battle stadium while you fight Vincent? Crono: … Vincent: Ha! You might have beaten me before, but I’m stronger this time. You’re getting older though, time hasn’t been kind to you. Crono: … Link: Time is on your side? Whatever, bro! Are you sure you can handle him though? Crono: … Link: Yeah, you’re right. Us old-school silent adventure heroes have to stick together! Thanks for this Crono! *Link takes off, while Crono readies his sword to take on Vincent. Meanwhile, another character is hiding behind a tree nearby* Zero:This is my chance! Once Vincent and Crono tire each other out, I’ll be able to just walk in and finish both off. What an awesome plan. Once I defeat those two, everyone will show me the respect I deserve! *Zero then pulls out a heart-shaped locket and opens it* This one is for you, Turtle, my love *smooch smooch*. Vincent: CRRRROOONNNOOOO!!!! *fires a blast from his guns at him* Crono: …!!!!!!!!!! *fires an energy blast from his sword* Zero: This is it! *Zero jumps out as the two blasts collide, and he is blasted into the sky just from the sheer force of the blasts. Vincent and Crono are unaffected.* Vincent: He’s still strong…but there’s no way he stands up to my ultimate attack. Crono: … *He began to prepare for a powerful attack* Vincent: Die! Death Penalty! *transforms and charges after Crono* Crono: …! *Crono sends off a Luminare at close range, and the two attacks collide, causing a massive explosion. Smoke heavily obscures the battlefield, and after a few minutes, it begins to clear, leaving only one man left standing.* ~*Part 3: Fin*~ You already know how important this match is, so I’ll try and keep it short. Link takes first, but with three fan-favorites here, it would be a real feat to break 50% again. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/23/2007 8:37:36 PM | message detail | #212 |
| Zero has the least chance of taking second. Yeah
yeah, Vincent and Crono hurt each other enough to the point where blah
blah we know. I just don’t see it happening. Zero has collapsed to
Mario and Luigi in the past, and now he’s got Link here. I just don’t
see him holding up well. I’ve had Vincent in second sice Day 1 and I’m only feeling better about it. Crono’s decent performance in Round 1 and poor showing in Round 2 haven’t convinced me that he’ll take second. Combine that with the fact Link beat him down before, CT’s overall decline, and Vincent holding up well last round, and the Vincent train keeps on chugging! Moltar’s Bracket Says: Link > Vincent Moltar’s Prediction is: Link: 46% - Vincent: 21% - Crono: 19% - Zero: 14% Ultimaterializer’s Analysis This seems to be everyone's upset special. How many times has BT told us that he has Zero advancing through this? OVER 9000?? The problem there is that Zero is a non-Square, non-Nintendo wonder. Great character until he faces one of those two companies, so he's out. Link is a lock for first throughout the entire contest. Crono vs Vincent however should be a load of fun. In 2005, Crono won a direct match between the two 55-45. In 2006, Crono completely collapsed against Sonic and confirmed the downward trend of CT that has gone on since 2004. Between Magus and Frog's utter embarrassments over the last three years (including this one; Frog relying on 25th-hour cheating to beat Axel is pathetic, and his true colors came out in the second round), it's only a matter of time before Crono follows suit. CT is falling pretty fast, and Vincent has been on a big upswing. Very few people had him winning his division in 2005 or beating Ganon in 2006 (followed by a pretty damn good performance against Sonic), but he did it. This year, he killed Zelda in the first round and managed nearly 28% in a four-way poll with Link in it. He made up 4% on Crono in the LOL, X-STATS between 2005 and 2006. And on top of that 4% increase, I'm 99% sure that Snake's match with Sonic is anomalous. Who in the hell watched that entire contest last year and honestly believes Mega Man and Sonic are still near-equals? Something weird happened in that match. For all we know, Vincent could *already* be stronger than Crono and we just haven't seen it yet. There's also the SFF to consider, of which we're far more likely to see Vincent > Crono than Crono > Vincent. A good deal of CT's performance in 2004 came from FF7 anti-votes and CT still being relavent. Either Crono or Mega Man will break the Noble Nine eventually. Given CT's recent history, might as well call it now. This is the best opportunity yet to see it happen. Well, that and Jay Solano's beatdown of Link last year. Ulti's Prediction: Link [43.00%] Vincent [23.00%] Crono [21.00%] Zero [13.00%] Heroic Mario’s Analysis With the exception of the finals, I think this may be my most anticipated match of the entire contest. For two years now, Vincent’s been looking like he’d be the guy who’d finally fell the noble nine. He started out with 45% on Crono, then returned the next year to get 48% on Sonic and, statistically, was near even with Crono. We’ve seen both of their performances for two rounds now – and Vincent looks like he has a definite edge heading in. This contest – and format – hasn’t been kind to Chrono Trigger characters. Frog nearly got ousted by Axel; Magus got beat by Big Boss; and Crono couldn’t manage 40% in round 2, despite nearly every other noble niner doing so. Nothing looks very good for him heading into this one, other than the fact that he’s a part of the infallible “noble nine.” That may well be the only advantage he has for this match. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/23/2007 8:38:07 PM | message detail | #213 |
| FF7, on the other hand, has been performing
amazingly so far. Cloud is looking like he has an actual shot at the
championship again, and Sephiroth has been looking great since round 2.
One would think that would also extend over to Vincent, and that may be
one of the things that propels him ahead today. If you take the CT
fanbase against the FF7 fanbase, I think there’s no question which of
the two comes out on top, just going by the performances in this
contest alone. I think this one could go either way between Vincent and Crono, but I’m not all that sure this ends up being too close. Vincent has looked like he has had a clear edge for a while now, and with him already having faced Link, there’s no question about what kind of performance he’s capable of putting up. There shouldn’t be much in the way of “SFF” here either. I think you’ve got two equally strong characters who aren’t going to steal a whole lot from the other. It doesn’t matter a whole lot in their match for second, but I think it puts Zero out of contention, since he’s relying on some noticeable SFF or “LFF” or whatever. As for Link, what he does today will get a lot of people talking about the finals. If he fails to impress, or even do decently, there’s going to be a whole lot more people jumping on the Cloud > Link bandwagon. The expectations seem to be set right around 45% for him to come away looking good. I could easily see Link hitting that today, despite my prediction being only 40%. This will be Link’s first match without any joke characters (‘doof ‘doof ‘doof) and that could make a difference – it’s also his first match against notable competition. This is looking to be one of the most entertaining matches of the contest. This is the first real chance we’ve had to see the noble nine finally get beaten, and with Crono sporting his sprite and having no real detrimental factors at play, he doesn’t have a whole lot of excuses for losing this one. Three FF7 characters in the top 9? BELIEVE Link – 40% Vincent – 24% Crono – 21% Zero – 17% Bracket: Link > Crono Vote: Vincent Yoblazer’s Analysis Ah, we've finally arrived! After two days of boredom, we have reached the two best, most anticipated matches of the round, and we get them back-to-back! Excited? I know I am, and that's without a hint of my crappy sarcasm, so let's set the small talk aside and analyze this thing! Today's match features Link, Crono, Vincent, and Zero. While Link's victory is assured, there can still be some attention diverted to the Zelda star. Cloud Strife, his nemesis of four years running, has looked unbelievably stellar thus far, as if he's sending a message to Link. The last time he did this was in 2003, and we all know the terrible result that contest year produced. It's up to Link to show that he's still the most dominant character on this site, but can he do it today? Personally, I have my doubts. Link is cursed with what is easily the worst picture of the bunch, his infamous "Christian Crusader/Bible Link" persona. More closely resembling a dwarf Jehovah's Witness than the Hero of Time, this is easily Link at his weakest, as evidenced by his 2003 match against Magus, in which he drew the same picture and put up the worst (percentage-wise) performance of his career. In addition to his picture woes, Link's opponents are all being hyped as having a shot at second place. This could lead to intense bracket voting and rallying, which, in turn, would undervalue Link. Sadly, I see an underperformance looming today, and I see the Cloud > Link hype train picking up a few more patrons. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/23/2007 8:38:42 PM | message detail | #214 |
| Setting our defending champ aside, the REAL fun
today is in the battle for second place. Vincent and Crono are the
heavy favorites, but that hasn't stopped some support from being thrown
Vincent's way. While I won't call it impossible, I will call it
extremely improbable. Sure, Zero might benefit from the potential
Crono/Vincent SFF, but he's still easily the weakest of the three, and
he'll also likely feel Link's Christian wrath the most. That doesn't
spell success - not in my book, anyway. I'd sooner expect to Zero
languishing in a distant fourth place before I see him in contention to
move on. I gave Zero a pity paragraph, but the true fight is between Vincent and Crono. The aging Noble Niner versus the guy who has been lauded as the Noble Nine's biggest threat for two years. These two met once before in 2005, and it was Crono who came away with the surprisingly narrow 55/45 margin of victory. Logically, that would put him as the favorite here, but things have changed in the last two years. Vincent Valentine has been on a roll. Since the Crono loss, he has starred in his own game, made an appearance in the wildly popular FFVII movie, and had a magnificent 2006 contest, easily beating Ganon in the first round's biggest match before giving Sonic quite the scare. This year, he's easily looked more impressive than his SNES counterpart, destroying Zelda before holding up relatively well to a Link on an SFF rampage. Crono, on the other hand, is coming off a very lackluster performance in which he let Zero finish within 4% of him. It's hard to imagine Vincent doing that poorly. Vincent's fan favorite and FFVII status could help him, and he has the added advantage of almost assuredly having the smallest overlap with Link. If Link hurts Crono just a teeny bit more, it's over. Crono might still have the advantage of traditional SFF, but he sure hasn't looked capable of that these past few years. Either way, expect a great one! Link - 44% Vincent Valentine - 22% Crono - 21% Zero - 13% Lopen’s Analysis Oooh, one of the most debated matches in the bracket... alright, my gloves are off, here. I've heard tales that Zero is going to win because of the split square vote... that Crono is going to win because he's friggin noble nine, or Vincent is gonna win because he barely lost to Sonic and Crono is declining. So I said... which do I believe? None of the above, maybe? Well, based offa 2005 and really, just what I think... I don't buy any sort of severe split in the square vote between Crono and Vincent. Two different generations, not from the same series. Yeah, there'll be some... but you know what other pairs have the potential to overlap? Link->Crono: Old school SNES split. Link->Zero: Mega Man behaves like a nintendo character, Zero might too... his match against Mario in 2005 was a bit suspect if you ask me. Crono->Zero: Old school SNES split. Zero->Vincent: My first two games for the PS were FF7 and MMX4... this should be obvious! Basically I'm saying... the splits should be ignored. Every competior has a case to split with at least one character... and none of them make much worse a case than the Crono/Vincent argument if you ask me. (Okay maybe Zero/Vincent but shut up!) So me... I'm taking Vincent. Vincent's looked good every round... and I do think Crono is on the decline. Zero has a case if you believe in weighted fanbase splits here... he came within 5% of Crono last round, but I don't think he'll be helped. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/23/2007 8:39:11 PM | message detail | #215 |
| Some might be ringing the Cloud > Link upset
bells... but even if my low Link % happens... I'm not. Let me just say
that this four pack is way
stronger than Cloud's. Vincent > Ryu easily, Zero is probably about
the equal of SFFed Auron. Oh and then we've got Marcus Fenix who gets
to compare himself with Crono... OHOHO... yeah, right. Lopen's Prediction Link - 38.92% Vincent - 22.89% Crono - 19.99% Zero - 18.00% Karma Hunter’s Analysis Well, let's get it over with. Link Pulverizes Vincent and some jokes in yet another dominating performance. Seeing as how Cloud is actually entertaining the thought of perhaps challenging him again, Link may very well come out pasting this grouping despite being the strongest threepack we've seen yet. ...well, that's what Link does. *sigh* How much am I supposed to write more than a paragraph for the guy? <.< Crono Not an especially good performance last round from Crono, as Zero gets eerily closer than many expect. Sealing the deal on Vincent progressing to the next round, or Zero recovering some from his 2k6 flop? Vincent Valentine Yeah, a guy who let Bidoof lead him for an hour may very well be considered the favorite here. Vincent still looked sharp in the end, and his dominating first-round performance isn't exactly something to ignore. Zero The wild card here, the only thing stopping Zero from taking advantage of Crono and Vincent sharing a fanbase is 1.) more and more it doesn't seem that they do and 2.) Nintendo has obliterated Mega and him in the past. Oh, and being a great deal weaker than 'em both, but minor details. So how does this epic battle for second go? Let's break it down, shoving annoyances out of the way for a second. As far as this contest goes, Vincent's looked just plain, flat-out better than Crono. Him crushing Zelda and the rest of that not-too-bad pack, holding up against Link well, as opposed to Crono's ho-hum performances have him riding high on an upset bandwagon so loud it could be argued he's not even the underdog anymore. To compound Crono's problems, Vincent is easily the most independent character in the match as far as consoles go - Link, Crono, and Zero all hold a heavy presence on the SNES, while Vincent has been a Sony-exclusive phenomenon. They're both technically Square, yes, but old and new Square haven't shown significant overlap in the past, and that doesn't really help him considering we already saw Vincent/Crono, and Crono got no disproportionate advantage whatsoever. ...however, it's worth noting that Vincent has looked flat-out BETTER than Crono as well when considering his match pictures. Not that it's an aberration or anything - you'd be hard-pressed to find many characters more photogenic than Vincent - but it does kind of matter when Vincent is stuck with one of his worst pictures to date. Meanwhile, Crono was saddled with a decent enough picture first round, but that second round picture - on the match that had people calling for his head - was an abomination. And now we see Crono in full-on sprite glory, and with my pick for best picture of the match. Call it coincidence or not, but we've seen Chrono Trigger perform with sprites before, and four out of five times the results have been: Magus scoring high enough on Link to outrank Sonic, Frog giving Solid Snake a scare, Crono barely losing to Mario in a match that Mario had to perform perhaps the most blatant cheating ever to win, and Crono beating the piss out of Mario. ...the problem there? Sprite #5 was, again, during Vincent/Crono #1, and Vincent held up like a freakin' champ. Crono's got the advantage here, but he should have had it LAST time. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/23/2007 8:39:56 PM | message detail | #216 |
| So that brings us to our little guy we haven't
been able to stop hearing about the last few months - Zero. Does he
have a chance? Well, sure - anyone
has a chance in most debatable matches given the format. Okay, does he
have a REALISTIC chance? Well, yeah - it's gone over PLENTY of times in
the stats topic, but everyone being reduced so low, especially by Link, throws a lot of things up in the air. ...that being said, it's not a particularly good one, and certainly not reasonable enough for masses to have been subjected to nonstop blathering for the past few months. Which is a shame, because I may even like Zero more than anyone else in this match, and him moving on would at least spark temporary hope and interest in a Sephiroth upset down the line while Link is being double-drained by Mario/Zero. But as it stands? Go for 5%, Zero (not that I'm predicting him there...! all the way...) Oh, and if you haven't figured it out, I'm sticking with Vincent here. Crono's got a lot of arguments, but they've all got a share of flaws, I trust in Vincent's fan-favoritism... and frankly, I think he could beat Crono one-on-one if you hold the match today. This won't prove anything like that, but it could be a start... Karma Hunter's Vote: Vincent Valentine. Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Link with 44%, Vincent Valentine with 22%, Crono with 20%, Zero with 14% Upset Probability: 45% A very good chance for Crono, and heck, why not even throw in a little for Zero? I'm nothing if not generous. Transience’s Analysis here it is -- the match most of us have been dying for. the end of the Noble Nine. I'm sure everyone's looking forward to the death of one of the silliest terms we've coined. Ulti probably took three shots at Crono, all within his requisite two line analysis where he apologizes for being brief for the 14th time this contest. Heroic Mario's probably got 7 uses of ! in his analysis, along with some "yo I want Vincent Valentine's nuts" going on. yoblazer's probably all YO LINK WHO CARES BOUT THESE BUMS. Moltar's all "yeahhh I'm gon' win this contest". we're looking at history here. before I get to that, though: Link. I've spent the last week defending Link pretty hard, so I should probably write about him here. obviously, he takes first, but I think he impresses here. yeah, even with Bible Link potentially holding him back. as we've seen in other matches, "joke characters" can really murder percentages. Sephiroth's round 1 and 2 matches are the best example -- take CATS out and Sephiroth does even better. I expect the same to be true of Link here, and I think people will be like "...damn." I'm looking for Link to get near 45%, which is really impressive when you consider his formidable competition: a former Noble Nine killer, a modern Noble Nine killer and a Noble Nine guy. now that's a fourpack. anyway. Vincent has every conceivable advantage here: - he's projected to lose to Crono 51.5/48.5 based on last year's stats, but with everything CT-related in a crazy tailspin, not to mention how good FF7 has looked this year, he has a great shot at being stronger. - he's the most unique character in the poll; Link, Crono and Zero all share the SNES, and you can make the argument that Link and Crono are the same guy. meanwhile, Vincent is the only guy without Nintendo ties. - Vincent is the textbook definition of "fan-favourite", a character type that does extremely well in these kinds of polls. he did great in that old FF7 "who is your favourite character" poll, and he did all right vs. Link. not great, not bad, just all right -- what was expected, basically. Vincent has shown no weakness in three years and it's tough to see him flopping now. Crono's advantages, meanwhile: - HE'S NOBLE NINE LOL |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/23/2007 8:40:24 PM | message detail | #217 |
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I can't come up with anything else. pre-contest I thought that this
contest was tailor-made for CT -- it seems like the ultimate
fan-favourite title, but Frog and Magus have bombed pretty hard so far
in this setting. a vote for Crono, in my opinion, is a vote for Chrono
Trigger, but that hasn't played out so well either. Crono hasn't bombed
yet, but he hasn't done anything good yet either. he's been
disappointing by a couple percentage points each round, and if he does
that here, Vincent probably advances. - he's got a sprite. there's been talk for years that CT is helped out by sprites. Magus did great on -- whaddya know -- Bible Link in 2003, Frog put up that crazy percentage on Snake in 2004. both of those are probably the opponent's fault, though, especially in Snake's case. Magus could have just been legitimately strong in 2003, which looks even probable. also, Crono's had some sprites before -- including against Vincent in 2005 -- and not done anything special. people point to Crono/Mario 2004, but that doesn't have anything to do with anything. Crono (and Chrono Trigger) was flat out at his peak in 2004. the sprite isn't going to help him. but you know what? I'm not abandoning Crono. part of it is because I always pick against Vincent. it's tradition, he always burns me, and I end up losing lots of points. me picking Crono should probably make Vincent a lock. but I just trust Crono to bring in that small percentage necessary for whatever reason. I don't have any good reasoning for it other than "it's Crono, noble nine guy, beat Mario, blah blah blah", but I just don't want to abandon him here. lastly, there's Zero. put another neutral character in place of Link -- maybe Solid Snake -- and I take Zero for second. I think he has a small chance of taking second here, too. Link really thwomped Mega Man in 2004 though and I don't see any reason why that would change. plus, I don't even think Crono and Vincent are that close fanbase-wise. Crono's had matches with Vincent, Auron and Zidane, and every one of them looks fairly legit so far. maybe they've simply all lined up number-wise and there's significant overlap there, but it sure doesn't look like it. Zero needs to resist Link *and* have a serious SFF split in order to take second. actually, that might not even be enough - he needs Link to dominate. he might be able to get to third place, but second is out of his grasp. biggest Noble Nine test yet. not that it would count in this weird format. transience's prediction: Link with 45.11%, Crono with 19.80%, Vincent with 19.53%, Zero with 15.56% Guest’s Analysis - Zylo the Wolf Hi Board 8. This is Zylo the Wolf trying to beat the ”crue” on how the upcoming match with Link, Vincent, Crono and Zero. I feel like an ass for stealing this from Black Turtle, but hey everyone already knows that he believes in Zero. Just like everyone else, I’ll analyze what every character have done so far in the contest Link: Getting 70% in this format was impressive for Link, but then again his opponents in round 1 wasn’t strong characters. In fact just calling them fodder is an understatment, no matter how awesome Edgeworth is. In his second match however, I’m not sure if Link did as expected or dissappointed. Anyway with another Zelda character, and a joke Pokémon in the same poll, I don’t think it was impressive for Link to barely break 50%, but he’s still a lock to make it to the finals so who cares? Vincent: Vincent is another character who have had his ups and downs this year. His first match was very impressive, but he allowed Bidoof to get the lead on him for a long time. Then again Vincent ended it pretty good. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/23/2007 8:41:07 PM | message detail | #218 |
| Crono: Eh... Crono have seen better days won’t get
any stronger for awhile, unless a Vc/Remake release of his game would
help him. But no matter what I think it’s quite a performance for what
Crono have done, consider how old his game is. It’s not like he’s any
kind of icon like Cloud or Sephiroth either. None of his matches have
been impressive, but I guess you shouldn’t expect characters from games
on a SNES RPG to be able to dominate other characters in this format
(Hello Kefka). Zero: Zero looked impressive if you go by the percent, but not if you looks at the opponents he have had. 32% in a poll with Crono is no joke, but come on that match had a Raiden who looked nothing like the MGS2 guy, and HK. The fact that HK advanced in Zero’s first match shows how weak his opponents where. Prediction: Hmmm... Last year Link almost got 43% against Cloud, Seph and Snake, so he has to match at least match that. As for the second place it will come down to who has the most loyal fanbase, and I think we can all agree on who has that. This match will be over in the first 30 minutes, Crono will do the same thing as Ryu did yesterday and get a quick lead, and while I expected Vincent to do something against it. Link and Zero will stop him from getting the strong dayvote that he needs. There’s no reason for Zero to go on, but he’s fighting foooooooooorrr the third place with Vincent. Vincent is mostly getting votes for his badass looks and few looks more badass than Zero. Link: 45% Crono: 20% Vincent: 17% Zero: 18% I dunno it feels odd that Crono and Zero won’t steal more than 6% more than what SFFZelda and Bidoof can do, but this is what Link has to do if he wants to beat Cloud in the finals. By the way if Link doesn’t get above 44%, then a Sephiroth and him looks about equal, and throw in that Mario will be in Link’s match to SFF each other, Sephiroth > Link is looking like a really sexy upset. To bad it wouldn’t matter, but this the important thing in tomorrow’s match isn’t who will advance with Link, instead the main focus should be on how Link can handle 3 characters who all has a big fanbase. Crew Consensus: Whew! In case you can't get all that, Link > Vincent is the majoirty here! |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/23/2007 8:43:52 PM | message detail | #219 |
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lol tranny doesn't even get his crazy crono pick all to himself lol ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/23/2007 8:48:05 PM | message detail | #220 |
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can you tell this is a big match? aw yeah --- xyzzy "And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy |
| Lugia2 | Posted 10/23/2007 8:56:03 PM | message detail | #221 |
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Oh dear lord. This was almost a Crew Curse! This is madness! THIS IS GAMEFAQS! --- "If the [PSP] is such a loser... why did you buy [one]?"- Saint Waldo "Because I am crazy. I also own three Wonderswans."- Chris Kohler |
| Biolizard28 | Posted 10/23/2007 8:57:20 PM | message detail | #222 |
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If Crono wins over Vincent, the entire crew must kiss tranny's ass. --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. You let GORDON FREEMAN beat Ike, you silly website! |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/23/2007 9:01:28 PM | message detail | #223 |
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they already do. --- xyzzy "And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/23/2007 9:05:31 PM | message detail | #224 |
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If Zero wins you should all kiss mine TuRtLe ~~~ 245/304 in the contest. Next pick: Link > ZERO BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| transience | Posted 10/23/2007 10:58:14 PM | message detail | #225 |
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oh we will --- "i go by statisticss put them all in an arena sepphroth="why arent your hair and mustache the same color?!" BAM dead mario" -Rathalownage |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/24/2007 12:13:01 AM | message detail | #226 |
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**** Crono so god damn much, I hate him. ~*ST*~ --- Petition for a system notification when a contribution is removed: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=37308859 |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/24/2007 7:26:37 AM | message detail | #227 |
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Darn you tranny, I thought I would be unique with my Crono pick >_> --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Kyle Bowen: Ignore me then and dont be an ass when I post. It solves everything. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2007 7:55:58 AM | message detail | #228 |
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Sephiroth......45.85% 65795 Fox McCloud ..8.06% 11566 Mario..............35.08% 50341 Big Boss.............11% 15787 TOTAL VOTES..........143489 72.73% of the brackets predicted 1st correctly. 66.01% of the brackets predicted 2nd correctly. 12.01% of the brackets predicted 1st to come in 2nd. 15.29% of the brackets predicted 2nd to come in 1st. Crew Predictions: Fully Correct - 34; Half Correct - 15; Barely Correct - 2 No crazy upset here. Seph > Mario by quite a margin, Big Boss and Fox...yeah. Crew Prediction Challenge - Lopen gets the point. Guest (Turtle "2", Kleenex, Who Cares?, Sensi, Luis, XII, l3fty, Gadds, Bob, Bio) - 11 Lopen - 9 HM - 7 Yoblazer - 7 KH - 5 Tran - 4 Moltar - 3 Ulti - 2 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Ulti gets the points for Seph and Fox, Lopen gets the point for Mario, and Moltar gets a point for Big Boss. Yoblazer - 40 Guest (Bokonon_Lives "2", Dp, Turtle "5", Ashe "2", Kleenex "3", Who Cares? "3", chocobo, Richard, Xcarvenger "2", Sensi, Darunia, satai "3", Bio "4", Luis "2", XIII "2", l3fty, Gadds, Bob, Ed) - 37 HM - 35 Lopen - 29 Moltar - 25 Ulti - 24 Tran - 22 KH - 20 --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Link/Vincent/Crono/Zero - Bracket: Link > Vincent - Vote: Link (263/314) |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2007 8:58:13 PM | message detail | #229 |
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Division 5: Round 3 - Match 53 – Ganondorf vs. Luigi vs. Master Chief vs. Yuna Moltar’s Analysis Ganondorf Round 1 – 49.10% vs. Vergil, Thrall and Ratchet Round 2 – 31.06% vs. Luigi, Mudkip and Vergil Another domniating performance from everyone’s favorite character. Luigi Round 1 – 45.96% vs. Mudkip, Pit and Tingle Round 2 – 28.11% vs. Ganondorf, Mudkip and Vergil Almost let Mudkip beat him laff. Master Chief Round 1 – 45.69% vs. Yuna, Tommy and PaRappa Round 2 – 43.78% vs. Yuna, Alucard and Liquid Snake Master Clinkeroth becoming a reality? Yuna Round 1 – 30.18% vs. MC, Tommy and PaRappa Round 2 – 23.96% vs. MC, Alucard and Liquid Snake Chief : Yuna :: Snake : Samus (you know its true) After coming off a hot, hot, hot match, the heat remains high for this one. This is one of those rare “any combination of the four could make it” situations. Ganon and Luigi are near-elites going after the same audience, Chief is a midcarder whose strength is tripled in this format, and Yuna’s in ur match, captilizin’ on ur weaknez. Now, this may be a surprise to you, but I am a fan of Ganondorf. I had him taking first in this match even though I kind of figured Chief would be stronger in this format. However, after last round, I’m changing my tune a little. Luigi hurt Ganondorf a lot more that I initially thought he would. Yeah, Mudkip may have messed some things up too, but the point is that the Ganon/Luigi Nintendo split is harsher than I expected. Then there’s Chief, who’s got his can of GAME FUEL ready to kick some ass. The guy looked beastly in Round 1 and 2, but here’s he got two characters who are indirectly stronger than him. With names like Ganondorf and Luigi in the poll, does Chief suffer? A little, but not enough to lose this. The split between Ganon and Luigi should hurt to the point where Yuna may be looking good to take 2nd. I’m not counting her out, but she definitely has the least likely chance in my mind. So what am I predicting now? Chief > Ganon. Yeah, I can’t COMPLETELY go against Ganondorf here because he’s got a good chance. He won the split with Luigi last round, and I think he can do it again. Moltar’s Bracket Says: Ganon > MC Moltar’s Prediction is: MC: 35% - Ganon: 24% - Luigi: 21% - Yuna: 20% Ultimaterializer’s Analysis Two GREAT match in a row. Sorry in advance for this writeup being short; really happy about Vincent and working on an English paper, sooo.... Master Chief has been a beast all contest, and Ganondorf and Luigi should screw each other over enough to allow Chief to get into first place. As for second, I actually Yuna making the final eight. So much for that plan! The entire female half of the 2006 bracket can safely be thrown out. Yuna's underperformed all contest, and she might actually come in last place. We've already seen Ganon > Luigi once. Unless like 90% of Mudkip's votes were displaced Luigi votes, Ganon should be able to do it again. No matter what, we could be prime for another Alucard/Liquid/Ness situation. Here's hoping for a great match! Ulti's Prediction: Chief [28.00%] Ganondorf [27.00%] Luigi [26.00%] Yuna [19.00%] Heroic Mario’s Analysis Time for an upset! There’s probably not too many people even considering Yuna for an upset here, but I think she’s got a great shot at doing it. Much like what happened with Pikachu/Vivi/Tidus, Yuna’s going to be relying on Ganon and Luigi splitting the fanbase again. Given that the competition here is much stronger than Mudkip and Vergil, I think it’s possible that Yuna gets just enough percentage to slip by in a close one. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2007 8:58:42 PM | message detail | #230 |
| First place is pretty much a foregone conclusion
at this point – Master Chief will easily take it. He’s looking like an
absolute beast this year, and with the two Nintendo guys not being at
their optimal strength, there’s no way they can compete with him. They
might not even be able to compete with him when
they aren’t hurt by each other – he’s looking that strong. I did
undershoot him last time, and I have a feeling I may be doing it again,
but I think the Chief is good for at least 30% here, probably a fair bit more depending. That leaves Yuna, the sole Square character in this pack, to fight with the two Nintendo guys. Before the contest, I bought into the idea that Nintendo is such a force on this site, that Ganon and Luigi could split the vote and still manage to come out on top. Clearly, that’s changed! “LFF” has been big during this contest, usually allowing for an undoubtedly weaker character to advance. I think Yuna can really take advantage of that here. She’s hardly weak herself – although she’s not nearly as high as last year’s female bracket would indicate – and being the most independent next to the Chief has to have some perks. As for what happens with Luigi and Ganon, there’s really no telling. Normally, I would have said that Ganon beats Luigi again, but the votes Mudkip got last round could end up going anywhere. Between that and Ganon’s horrendous picture, I’m giving Luigi the advantage over Ganon by a smidge, although something tells me he might end up dominating the SFF for some reason. Master Chief – 30% Yuna – 24% Luigi -- 23% Ganondorf – 23% Bracket: Ganon > Luigi Vote: Yuna Yoblazer’s Analysis Well, here it is - the match my bracket depends on. I could be wrong, but I think this is one of only two big upsets that sets my bracket apart from most others. I'm obviously excited that it's finally here, and boy, did it take its sweetass time. This was arguably the most debated match during the prediction period, so I can safely say that others are also giddy with anticipation. Let's analyze this puppy and see if this old Arab still has a shot. This match is notable for combining Nintendo, Square, and a rabid "outsider" fanbase in one pretty package. The competitors are Master Chief, Ganondorf, Luigi, and Yuna. In most cases, I'd like the Nintendo rep's chances, but things are complicated here because there are, in fact, two Nintendo reps. Ganon and Luigi, while not the most intertwined couple in the Nintendo kingdom, certainly have some significant overlap, and this will allow Master Chief to run away with yet another impressive win. Chief has practically everything going for him today: the picture, the recent gaming world news and hype, and the big fanbase split are all spelling good things for the Halo star, so don't be surprised if he makes all three of these guys look like jobbers. While Chief wasn't the favorite among Board 8 bracket makers, he's proven that he should have been with two incredible performances. Anyone who had Ganondorf, Luigi, or Yuna winning this match has basically given up all hopes of receiving full points and will now be relegated to hoping their representative makes it through. And that, my friends, is where all the super-happy-fun-time action is. Who will accompany Chief? Your guess is as good as mine. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2007 8:59:14 PM | message detail | #231 |
| The mini-match between Ganon, Luigi, and Yuna is
one full of advantages and disadvantages, and the key to predicting it
correctly is figuring out which ones will actually matter most. Yuna
has a big disadvantage by being clearly weaker than the two Nintendo
characters, but she is advantaged because she won't have to endure a
fanbase split. Ganondorf is advantaged by being the strongest of the
three, but disadvantaged because his performance against Luigi in the
last round wasn't very impressive and because his picture completely
sucks ass (Yuna also has a pretty bad picture, by the way). Luigi's
disadvantage is that he's coming into the match with a loss to
Ganondorf (albeit a respectable one), but he is advantaged by having a
much more appealing old school sprite picture. As many of you know, I have Luigi in my bracket, and I feel that his advantages and potential advantages can definitely pull him through. He's got a great iconic sprite going for him, and his loss to Ganondorf last round wasn't really that bad. The picture alone may be enough to make that up, as could the possibility of Mudkip hurting Luigi slightly more (something I've long since speculated with nothing to back it up but my gut, so please make fun! I have no proofs, you see!) in his last match. Apart from his 2005 win against Auron, Ganondorf has a history of dropping the big one, and I could see him folding today, especially with that picture, but I still reluctantly give him the status of "favorite." Yuna, conversely, can also take advantage of the fanbase split and ride it into the next round, but I think her overall lack of strength and poor picture will hold her back. What it basically boils down to is that I can see these three finishing in any order, and I'll just be hoping like crazy for WEE GEE TIME. OH YA. OH YA. to pull it off. Good analysis, huh. Master Chief - 36% Luigi - 23% Ganondorf - 21% Yuna - 20% Lopen’s Analysis Match of the round right here. I'm actively watching first and second place. Nono, child, not because Master Chief is in any danger of losing, but because it's time his hardcore fanbase theory really gets put to the test. We saw it last round... surely PafreakinRappa alone being replaced would guarantee MC losing more than a paltry 2%. But nay, it did not. Why? Why didn't it? Some say that it's because of Halo 3. Of course, those same people were saying Halo 3 wouldn't give a significant boost, but let's ignore that for a moment. Yes, I think it was partially Halo 3... but mainly? Mainly Master Chief's hyper-resiliant fanbase... we do not fold easily! And now it's time for a healthy dose of believe. MASTER CHIEF IS INVINCIBLE! Okay... Master Chief aside... there are other people in this match. I didn't see because I voted so fast... but as for second place... quite debatable. As for me, I'm thinking the odds go Luigi > Yuna > Pigman. WHAAAATTT!?, you say? Yeah, you read it right. Let me tell ya why. Round 2... Pigman barely edged out Luigi. But results would dictate that Pigman is clearly stronger than Luigi, right? Indeed, they would. Here's where my theory on Pigman comes in... I just don't think he's the type to do well in this format... especially with Luigi here. I figure, among the more loyal sects of the Nintendo fanbase, Luigi is more likely to have the support. Pigman has a lot more outliers, but with MC and Yuna here they've mostly been weeded out. We saw Luigi almost uproot Pigman last round where the only non-Nintendo alternative was Vergil, who sadly was too weak to make much of a difference. Now, with Master Chief and Yuna here to pick off the outliers, Luigi's rSFF is going to hurt that much more. Oh, and also, as gravy for Luigi's chances... Pigman is actually Pigman this round. GG THX NUB Bacondorf. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2007 8:59:58 PM | message detail | #232 |
| Now, my concern lies in this... even if Luigi can
rSFF Pigman, where does that leave Yuna? While Luigi's the favorite
1v1, Yuna's no pushover. Her being able to capitalize on a weakened
Luigi seems a very real possibility to me. Especially considering that
because she was so comfortably ahead of Alucard her numbers from last
year might not be totally absurd. But I dunno... I just don't think
Weej gets hurt enough for her to sneak in, especially after seeing how
Weej and MC dominate the pic. Keep in mind though, Nintendo is a pretty
large
fanbase. "Fanbase split" doesn't mean as much as when comparing say...
Kingdom Hearts. While Luigi is hurt a bit, it's not as if he's running
out of vote reserves. Lopen's Prediction: Master Chief - 41.37% Luigi - 22.51% Yuna - 21.13% PIGMAN COMETH - 14.99% Now let's chug some GAME FUEL in preparation for the match. Karma Hunter’s Analysis The first of the Noble Nine falls (but not for real lolz ARGH), and with this the next batch of prospective contenders comes up to bat. Ganondorf A strange underwhelming match characterizes Ganondorf's performance last round as he pulls out a closer than expected win against Luigi. With him getting stuck with one of the worst pictures he's ever had, can he still advance here with Yuna lurking to take advantage of SFF and the threat of Luigi? Luigi A potential loss to Mudkip turns into quite an impressive performance from Luigi, about the best he could have hoped for without winning. Now he looks to advance here, blah blah same thing I just said for ol' Ganny w/out the crap pic Master Chief What was once a hotly debated match where MC could have been seen as the underdog has become a near-lock for the SPARTAN hero of Halo. Master Chief has been DOMINANT on the level of the Noble Nine, and he'll be looking to prove himself once again - this time, being truly tested against heavy-hitting Nintendo forces. He should almost certainly advance, but will it be dominating enough to give faith against a clearly boosted Sonic powerhouse? Yuna Doing as expected, maybe a bit better, maybe a bit worse (well, if you throw out any expectations to hang with MC). Yuna is pretty much just hoping to take advantage of some serious fanbase splitting and slip in once again with MC. Can she continue to cling to the big man, or has her luck run out? Hey, here's the analysis - and I think it has! Yuna is strong, but I don't think the split between Ganondorf and Luigi will be enough to let her through into second. She's certainly not out of it, but I'm just not feeling the pick here. Let's move on to my more debated result, which is between Ganondorf and Luigi. Ganondorf definitely disappointed last round against Luigi. That being said, he still won. More than that, we've seen close margins become much more pronounced in later rounds for whatever reason, though that could be a minus as much as a plus for Ganny. The problem for him seems to come in the form of the picture, because Luigi has his great recognizable sprite while Ganondorf has... that thing. It's not exactly **** Boss, but it's not exactly good. Mudkip being gone puts some unpredictability there as well. Discounting all the stuffed votes, where do the people that voted for him last time throw their support? Luigi is definitely the more 'kiddy' character, and that seems to me where those votes will tend. That and the MC/Yuna dynamic... Luigi just comes off a lot better to me, is what I'm trying to say. And I never have faith in Luigi... but I'm picking him here in a debated match, for probably the first time ever (I *really* don't count KOS-MOS... but I never have faith in her either :/). Even though Ganondorf's the only one I can see upending MC down the line out of this grouping, I'm just feeling the Luigi vibe here. |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/24/2007 9:00:45 PM | message detail | #233 |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2007 9:00:55 PM | message detail | #234 |
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...it's worked as well as any other method this contest! Karma Hunter's Vote: Master Chief. I've been playing Halo 3 lately, lol Halo 3 boost lolololol GAME FUEL Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Master Chief with 36.5%, Luigi with 25%, Ganondorf with 24%, Yuna with 16.5% ...for some reason this percentage was really hard for me, even considering that it's me. Maybe I should compare with other people's predictions before I do writeups... Upset Probability: 70% We've got Ganondorf primed and ready, and if he comes out storming (and we've seen that happen for seemingly no reason, ph33r teh Mudkipz - Bidoof parallel) we could see Luigi easily lose. Maybe even MC given a scare... okay, so the bulk of that remaining probability is Yuna surviving again. She's got a great chance, but I don't like to linger on it geez alright lol look at that picture wtf Auron Transience’s Analysis here we are -- the most debated match of the entire bracket pre-contest. there were tons of arguments to be made pre-contest, but a lot of them have gone away after seeing these characters in a couple of rounds. but hey, second place is still up for grabs! Ganondorf xstat-wise, the strongest character among the four and the most impressive in previous contests. once thought to be the guy to break the Noble Nine (augh let's not go there), Ganon is still an elite character that belongs in the conversation with the Vincents and Squalls of the world. unfortunately, he has two things working against him here: heavy overlap with Luigi and that awful picture. Luigi the least likely to place? maybe. round 2 proved that Nintendo fans prefer Ganondorf to him, but he has two things working for him: his picture and Ganondorf's. Luigi's picture, while still not good (who the hell decided this round was a good idea?), is still a fairly classic, iconic picture of the Green Mario. that's gotta count for something... right? Master Chief star of the contest, L-Block notwithstanding. a lock to place first. he's got hype, the biggest release of the year, that weird fanbase of his, and the best picture of the four on his side. what more needs to be said? this is more of a measuring stick for Sonic than anything at this point. the main thing we get to test in this round is how MC holds up against legends -- Luigi, specifically. Yuna the weakest character of the four. the most independent? maybe. the overlap + the bad pictures have her getting a bit of hype to place here, and it's fairly warranted. she has as good a chance as anyone. so, who gets second here? there are arguments to be made for all three. let's start with the pictures. I don't think the picture hurts Ganon much. it's not like people don't know who Ganondorf is; freaking everyone has played Zelda and everyone knows he's been around since the beginning of time. honestly, I think Luigi's picture helps him more than Ganon's hurts him. besides, Yuna's picture is bad, too. everyone is bad here! I think all the bad pictures kind of cancel themselves out here. on the other hand, the overlap between Ganondorf and Luigi is a huge factor. it split pretty hard in round 2, meaning that Yuna has a great chance here. I want to take Yuna pretty badly here just based on the circumstances, but I'm skeptical of her getting a lot of votes. she may be independent, but that doesn't mean that Square fans automatically like her more than the Nintendo guys. she's just not the favourite character that people want to make her out to be. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2007 9:01:26 PM | message detail | #235 |
| that leaves Ganondorf and Luigi.. and for whatever
reason, I'm taking Luigi. I think Mudkip hurts Luigi more than
Ganondorf. why? I have no idea, it just feels right to me. add in the
two pictures and I think he has that slight edge. this is such a huge
tossup between the three guys here, but I'll throw my pick to Luigi. I
think his fans care more about him than Ganondorf's do about him. I
think Ganondorf's fans abandon him for Master Chief more than Luigi's
will. I have no good feeling about this match and I'm not even
anticipating it all that much, but WOO LUIGI Yuna's pic is bad Ganondorf looks like a pig Luigi's is best transience's prediction: Master Chief with 40.45%, Luigi with 21.48%, Yuna with 19.45%, Ganondorf with 18.62% Guest’s Analysis - Luis_Sera89 This is something I wish I could be writing for a little more hindsight, but Liverpool are playing tonight! Which coupled with a night out and a 7 o clock start tomorrow, isn’t Aunt Bessie’s great recipe for an awesome analysis. But what’s this? This next match is Ganon/Luigi/Chief/Yuna? The one match singled out as the most unpredictable later round match of the entire contest? Well then hindsight be damned! I’ll get on the best I can! To recap our heroes journeys to this point, Ganon looked half decent blowing away pithy fodder, likewise Luigi apart from NO THERE IS A MUDKIP IN THE WAY, and travel buddies Chief and Yuna have never looked in much trouble, but it’s hard not to notice just how far away MC’s been blowing Yunes out of the water. And to throw a further metaphorical spanner in the works SFFleechingfactor is turning out to be more damaging than most of us could have anticipated pre-contest, so one of Ganon and Luigi are by no means out of the woods, and the summoner could quite easily slip through the backdoor once again with the Nintendo duo splitting votes. Which, by the way, Mudkipz be damned, they did so impeccably last round. A 3% difference added to the unpredictability of where Mudkip’s votes will go means quite literally anything could happen. And of course by anything I mean Chief > Luigi/Ganon/Yuna (delete as applicable). GAME FUEL has looked divine so far this contest, no-one in his two matches has come close to touching him and he’s been putting up figure’s in the mid-40s against characters who are no mugs at all (except Parappa lolz). His Hardcore X-Box Voting Block ™, isn’t showing any signs of deserting him, and as has been said countless times, that + difficulty in anti-voting + apparent drop in anti-voting anyway + Halo 3 = good timez for MC. Now though he’s entering an entirely different league to the largely lower-midcarders at best range he’s faced so far, and up to the realm of the higher midcarder/near elite/elite >_> So, uh, yeah a very chump-free zone. Don’t be expecting him to retain figures in the 40s unless you’re still harbouring hope of him reaching the final. But enough of the all but locked up 1st place. Who in this jumble of unpredictability will emerge unscathed? |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2007 9:02:34 PM | message detail | #236 |
| Surprising as I would have found this pre-contest,
things are conspiring more than ever against Ganon, and I’m finding it
hard to take him. He wasn’t nearly dominant enough last match for me to
feel ‘safe’ about this match, and I’m finding it much easier seeing the
majority of Mudkip’s votes going to Luigi, and with 25% to go around,
for just over 3% to vote again, preferring Weegee to Pigman isn’t out
of the realms of possibility by any means. And speaking of Pigman,
whilst Luigi certainly isn’t going to be looking his best, surprises
aside, Ganon’s getting his LoZ sprite, which is entering an all new
world of questionable recognisability. It’s not the prettiest picture
to begin with, but combine that with the fact that you never see Ganon
until the final battle, and you’re relying a lot on name-recognition.
Of course this could all be irrelevant come match time, but when
there’s this much uncertainty surrounding a match, the smallest detail
could prove costly. Luigi’s finally getting a match without Mudkip now, so maybe he could be getting a Link-esque coming out party. The leeching in the last match brought Luigi up closer to Ganon than he likely would be in a 1 on 1, and I think this could make the difference. And finally, Yuna? Well like Chief her fanbase kind if sticks out here, and with no potential Playstation screwy business going on, I can see her jumping from her Round 2 votals to something closer to her original Round 1 amount. Her, and the two Nintendo boys are going to end up quite close to each other, but I see it as a fight between her and Ganon for 3rd place, as I’m siding with the Green Missile on this one. GO WEEGEE TIME! Ganondorf: 21.41% Luigi: 23.1% Master Chief: 33.44% Yuna: 21.74% Crew Consensus: Chief > Luigi is the favorite, but Chief > Ganon and Chief > Yuna is represented! |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/24/2007 9:03:12 PM | message detail | #237 |
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does ulti not know how to predict or something (sorry about the interruption god damn those were long) ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/24/2007 9:03:45 PM | message detail | #238 |
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...what the hell? I expected yoblazer, but, umm.... --- xyzzy "And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/25/2007 6:13:03 PM | message detail | #239 |
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Link...........................45.37% 64214 Vincent Valentine...21.78% 30825 Crono.......................20.58% 29123 Zero..........................12.27% 17359 TOTAL VOTES....................141521 81.52% of the brackets predicted 1st correctly. 5.64% of the brackets predicted 2nd correctly. 5.77% of the brackets predicted 1st to come in 2nd. 5.30% of the brackets predicted 2nd to come in 1st. Crew Predictions: Fully Correct - 35; Half Correct - 15; Barely Correct - 2 Link does awesome, Vincent succeeds with the upset, lol zero. Crew Prediction Challenge - Moltar gets the point. Guest (Turtle "2", Kleenex, Who Cares?, Sensi, Luis, XII, l3fty, Gadds, Bob, Bio) - 11 Lopen - 9 HM - 7 Yoblazer - 7 KH - 5 Tran - 4 Moltar - 4 Ulti - 2 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Tran gets the point for Link, Yo, HM and Ulti get points for Crono, Yo and KH get points for Vincent, and Ulti and Yo get points for Zero. Yoblazer - 43 Guest (Bokonon_Lives "2", Dp, Turtle "5", Ashe "2", Kleenex "3", Who Cares? "3", chocobo, Richard, Xcarvenger "2", Sensi, Darunia, satai "3", Bio "4", Luis "2", XIII "2", l3fty, Gadds, Bob, Ed) - 37 HM - 36 Lopen - 29 Ulti - 26 Moltar - 25 Tran - 23 KH - 21 --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Ganon/Luigi/MC/Yuna - Bracket: Ganon > MC - Vote: Ganon (279/330) |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/25/2007 9:16:15 PM | message detail | #240 |
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Division 6: Round 3 - Match 54 – Dante vs. Amaterasu vs. Leon Kennedy vs. Pikachu Moltar’s Analysis Dante Round 1 – 49.19% vs. Amaterasu, Little Mac and Matt Round 2 – 43.41% vs. Amaterasu, Ada and Balthier Dante keeps on chugging. Ammy Round 1 – 22.75% vs. Dante, Little Mac and Matt Round 2 – 20.83% vs. Dante, Ada and Balthier I love this site. Leon Round 1 – 40.13% vs. Vivi, Ridley and Spyro Round 2 – 33.31% vs. Pikachu, Vivi, and Tidus Leon owns some more faces. Pikachu Round 1 – 36.62% vs. Tidus, Issac and Serge Round 2 – 24.14% vs. Leon, Vivi, Tidus I hate this site. Why must such an awesome thing like Amaterasu in Round 3 be so, so tainted with Pikachu in the same match. Everything else Pokemon is out and the lone thing that remains is Pikachu? augh I wish I could just pretend the yellow rat wasn’t here So I will! Dante vs. Leon vs. Ammy. Well, as cool and awesome as Ammy is, she won’t be making a dent here (well, one that’s larger than 15% anyway). The real battle is for first between Dante and Leon. Dante’s indirectly stronger, but Leon hasn’t been looking like a slouch. Both have performed well so far, though that may be because their fourpacks were (for the most part) weaksauce. Both characters have their similiarites. Both were raised on Sony platforms, but have cool designs, both have dialogue riddled with cheese, both have guns, both have troubles with women, both have hair… What, too specific? Okay, well, the thing is. It’s likely both share a slight overlap in audience. I’m thinking that audience would swing in Dante’s favor, but it’s tough to say beforehand. Still, neither should be in trouble of falling to third. Moltar’s Bracket Says: Dante > Leon Moltar’s Prediction is: Dante: 35% - Leon: 32% - Ammy: 17% - Pikachu: 16% Ultimaterializer’s Analysis Not going to pretend to be objective. Gogo Leon and Dante! They should be strong enough to go Dante > Leon with no fear of anything else sneaking into second place, and uh... die Pikachu die? Damn you for beating Vivi. Yeah no stathead stuff to say here. Too obvious =/ Ulti's Prediction: Dante [31.00%] Leon [29.00%] Pikachu [22.00%] Amaterasu [18.00%] Yoblazer’s Analysis Well, after the last two epic days, the rest of this round (with exception to continued L-Block heroism) will seem a bit subdued and, dare I say it, boring. This match, in particular, doesn't seem particularly interesting, and any surprises it could generate would just suck ass anyway. It's a crucial match for my bracket, but eh, I'm still not excited. That's kind of strange when two of my favorite gaming badasses, Dante and Leon Kennedy, are sharing the poll, but hey, the last two days have been that amazing. As I just mentioned, Devil May Cry's Dante and Resident Evil's Leon are in this match, and they're extremely heavy favorites to move on. Dante has been in the upper midcard for years, and Leon has been impressing us old fogies since 2005. They both have legitimate strength - too much, in fact, for their opponents to keep up with. Their first lamb to the slaughter, Amaterasu, has had an exceptional year. She made it through two rounds when hardly anybody thought she had a chance at one. Shocking the board twice in two matches is a surefire way to say you've done well for yourself. However, she's still a very low midcarder at best, and that simply is not enough to contend with the two bad boys staring her down. Great contest, Amaterasu. Maybe we'll see you next year. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/25/2007 9:16:44 PM | message detail | #241 |
| Our fourth entrant, Pikachu, has had a similarly
spectacular contest. He surprised everyone by defeating Tidus in Round
1 and then went on to prove he was a legitimate contender by beating
both Tidus and Vivi in the second round. Like Amaterasu, though,
there's simply too large a gap in strength between him and the two
favorites. I wont dole out any compliments, you stupid rat. Go jump in
a California wildfire. So Dante and Leon advance, but who takes first? While I have a feeling that Leon's Resident Evil fanbase might be a bit more devoted and likely to stick around when facing tough competition, there's little denying that Dante is the legitimately stronger of the two. Also, while the picture isn't up yet, it's fair to assume that Leon will get a Resident Evil 2 pic for the first time ever, which probably won't help among the many fans who recognize him exclusively from RE4. It should be a respectable performance from both of them, but I think Dante takes it in the end. Dante - 32% Leon Kennedy - 30% Pikachu - 22% Amaterasu - 16% Lopen’s Analysis Dante: Eeew... what's that smell...? Leon: *sniffs underarms* NO PROBLEM, BRO! Dante: Not you... Amaterasu: Woof! *Dante spies the steaming pile* Dante: Didn't your trainer ever teach you to do that outside? Amaterasu: Woof! *rolls over* Leon: BETTER TRY A NEW TRICK NEXT TIME, 'COZ THAT ONE'S GETTING OLD. *Vergil appears* Vergil: Dante... it's time... Dante: Heh. What, you're gonna show the dog how it's done? Looking at last round, you seem to be a pro. Vergil: Silence! Observe... go, Pikachu! *hurls Pokeball* Pikachu: Pika! Pika! Dante: That's low, Vergil, even for you... bringing your English tutor into this? Vergil: Ha. Funny you should mention tutoring... it's time for a little lesson in science... behold the evolution of combat! RAICHU! *holds up a shiny yellow stone* Pikachu: Pika...? *stares at the stone quizzically* Vergil: ... *Dante taps his foot impatiently* Vergil: WHY DO YOU REFUSE TO GAIN POWER!? *splits Pikachu in two* *Amaterasu yelps and whines at that* Vergil: BE GONE! *splits Amaterasu in two* Dante: The evolution of combat is you... killing helpless animals? Gotta admit, it's a step up from losing to small animals. Leon: VERGIL, YOU'RE SMALL TIME! Vergil: Scum... *splits Leon in two* Dante: This sure is one crazy party... Yeap. So like last round, the true to life match pic is Vergil standing above three bloody carcasses. This all amounts to Vergil winning with 82%. I'm not sure where Dante comes into this, but we'll say he rSFFed Vergil's % or something. Lopen's Prediction: Dante - 36.78% Leon - 29.02% (some might say this deserved analysis... I really don't think you have a chance. Prove me wrong, I guess.) Rat - 20.12% Dog - 14.08% Karma Hunter’s Analysis One of the more hyped affairs and even fewer up-in-the-air fights for first place we get to see in this contest... let's see Leon get tested. Dante Perhaps best described as the dividing line between upper-midcarders and the near-elites, Dante has been performing with that 'on-the-line' status the whole contest, doing quiet dominations that haven't got much attention because the competition is so... meh. Now he meets fellow Capcom star from a much bigger series, and Dante is looking to prove he's still second-in-command to Mega Man... |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/25/2007 9:17:20 PM | message detail | #242 |
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Amaterasu You can talk about L-Block all you want, but there's no way anything he could have done (or will do) that could fill me with the incredulity at Okami Amaterasu getting to the third round. She's dead here, but with a potentially favorable picture factor (I think it's nigh-impossible to find a bad pic of her, though Bacon will certainly be trying), she could impress again... or fall apart now that the competiton has finally been raised to the level that the round demands, excepting her... Leon Kennedy Quietly dominating performances, but ones with much more fanfare as per the Pika > Vivi upset. Leon proved he deserves to be on the cusp between upper-midcarders and near-elites. Now today's match looks to answer which side he falls on (yes I know the format doesn't actually conclusively determine anything, let me hype stuff jeez). Pikachu Arguably the weakest Poke in this contest, the only one to make it to the third round. Thanks to Pokemon surging and Vivi being restrained by the always troublesome Tidus (I still <3 you Blitz Ace), he's only just a *few* lightyears less surprising than Amaterasu being here. Barring stupid shenanigans which I won't go into (bad Pikachu bad), this is exclusively a two-way battle between Dante and Leon. Amaterasu's 'drain' on either should be negligible, so I'll focus just on them. Superficially, Dante's the tested competitor, and has more impressive performances to his name. He's had trouble getting over the hump in his debated matches (Ryu, Vincent, Yoshi), but there's no denying he's been doing progressively better each year, now up to a standard that very few characters can match. Leon, on the other hand, got his start in 2005 - and while he had a perceived slip-up against Gordon Freeman initially, he went on to perform admirably against Mega Man and later Bowser in 2006. His dominating performances have cemented his status as contender in this match, and thankfully for him Ada wasn't quite able to make the party and screw him over here. As for outside factors? Leon's got RE4: Wii Edition, which while normally not much (it's a port of a port that isn't selling THAT well), the fact that it's for the Wii and sets him apart even more from Dante can do nothing but help. There's also the little fact that Dante's statistical readings in the past have been somewhat flimsy - the Devil Division's question has never been quite conclusively answered, at least for me, and more starkly is the fact that he's one of the most obviously overrated characters in the contest from last year thanks to Snake/Yoshi. However, I don't think that Dante's favorite status can be denied. I questioned Leon's earlier, but he seems to have a really devoted following as well. This should be a close one, and it should come down to intangibles... and unfortunately, 99 times out of 100, I think that brackets make the difference when all else fails. I like Leon more and hope that he can pull this out, but I'm feeling Dante pulls out his first debated match of his career today. Karma Hunter's Vote: Leon Kennedy OH GOD NOT AGAIN Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Dante with 32%, Leon Kennedy with 31.5%, Pikachu with 21%, Amaterasu with 15.5% who wins the day vote Upset Probability: 45% Leon is certainly legit no matter what happens here, and he may impress above and beyond even what his supporters expect out of him. Dante has thrived off of his character designs in lieu of truly elite games, and with the RE factor Leon could conceivably siphon away his more casual support. Or, y'know... be the indisputably stronger character. Transience’s Analysis Leon Kennedy is my dark horse to do Really Well this contest season. I believe in him more than seemingly anybody else. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/25/2007 9:18:00 PM | message detail | #243 |
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compare him to Dante and he's pretty much equal to him if not stronger.
45% on Bowser vs. 49% on Yoshi? in past years, that would have been
completely equal, but god knows what's up with Bowser lately. it's
probably a push - Bowser beat Yoshi with 55% - but we can give the edge
to Dante and it doesn't even matter. Leon has been increasing rapidly,
and we haven't even mentioned RE4 for the Wii which sold like a million
copies worldwide. it's probably in the top five Wii titles as far as
sales go, which is pretty incredible considering it's a port of a game
that is already playable on the Wii. Ada looked a little stronger this
year from it, and who knows what it could do for the main character.
Leon covers every notable system but the Xbox/360 at this point, more
than Dante can claim. Resident Evil 4 is just huge on this site, bigger than all the DMC games combined. this poll probably doesn't mean anything, but it's fairly interesting: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2805 I mean, it's not even close. hell, Mega Man isn't even close. RE fans are pretty hardcore, and they triple DMC fans. the only problem here is that Dante is MUCH more popular than his series, and he seems more like a fan-favourite. but with the way Leon is growing, that won't even matter soon. the only problem here is the picture, which I haven't seen yet and is going to hurt Leon a LOT. RE2 (or RE: Gaiden? eek) is going to be a problem for a guy who is the Cloud of his series. RE2 is a fraction of the popularity. Dante probably won't look good either, but at least he'll be recognizable. the pictures I've seen of RE2 Leon look a good bit different. oh well, I've defended Leon far too much to abandon him now. even if he ends up taking second here, I'll probably support him next round anyway! Resident Evil, more popular than Devil May Cry, Leon wins. transience's prediction: Leon with 33.18%, Dante with 29.99%, Pikachu with 19.94%, Amaterasu with 16.89% Guest’s Analysis - satai_delenn I can already tell. Looks like this is gonna be one hell of a party! …actually, after the debates over the MC/etc. match, this one seems so anti-climactic. All right, getting down to business here. First of all, I've been forced to write this the day before the pictures go up, thanks to homework (why won't this semester die in a fire??) so if somehow something bizarre happens like Dante gets a picture of, uh…the back of his head, or something, don't mind me. I've heard cases being made for Leon > Dante here, but I'm not entirely sure what the evidence for that is. RE4 Wii or whatever clearly isn't doing much for its representatives against Dante, if Ada is any example, and if there's any of that DMC/RE QXGJPFF stuff to be had it should be in Dante's favor. Sure, Dante's competition wasn't exactly the epitome of fierce last round, but he looked good enough against them that I anticipate his road this round to be once again paved with the bones of his opponents. (Well, let's face it, Dante looks good no matter what he's doing… >_>) As for Pikachu, you know what? I've had it with these mother****ing Pokemon in my mother****ing bracket…! </Samuel L. Jackson> I mean, nothing against Pikachu, really. I like the little dude. But come on already. Dante will be only too happy to punt him out of the arena and back to Viridian Forest where he belongs. Dante: "Sweet dreams!" Pikachu: "Piiika-piiikaaaaaa!" *ping* Wow, Dante for Brawl. What an awesome idea. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/25/2007 9:18:26 PM | message detail | #244 |
| …anyway. The match, right. Amaterasu surprised me
twice by looking like an actual valid competitor, and congratulations
to the wolf…goddess…thing. But here's where her reign of terror stops.
Like many of the Marcus Fenixes of this contest, now that she's facing
more than one legitimately strong character, she should dry up like an
old inkwell. Dante doesn't like calligraphy, though; it's so girly. So
he'll be smashing up that inkwell right proper. Dante: "Too easy!"
Amaterasu: "Owwwooooo…." Satai's Vote: Dante Freakin' Sparda Satai's Prediction: Dante – 37.24% Amaterasu – 14.01% Leon Kennedy – 28.71% Pikachu – 20.04% Crew Consensus: Dante > Leon is the big favorite. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/25/2007 9:19:43 PM | message detail | #245 |
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Yeah no stathead stuff to say here. Too obvious =/ why --- Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package. |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/25/2007 9:24:40 PM | message detail | #246 |
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thank you ulti --- xyzzy "And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/25/2007 9:27:56 PM | message detail | #247 |
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"Wow, Dante for Brawl. What an awesome idea." best analysis ever. and they could release dmc1-3 on the wii (with the classic controller) at the same time in order to justify it =D ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| ZFS | Posted 10/25/2007 9:43:24 PM | message detail | #248 |
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was watching footballz There has been some talk about Dante and Leon SFF, and while I can understand where that line of thought is coming from, I’m not expecting a whole lot of it to be here. I think Dante and Leon, while similar in a lot of ways, have enough pull not to have to worry about “LFF” like some other characters do, notably Nintendo and Square. Even if it is present, it shouldn’t hinder them to the point of having to worry about Pikachu or Amaterasu pulling anything off. Those two will be fighting for third while Dante and Leon have at it for first. I was a bit skeptical of Dante pre-contest, just because he didn’t seem like the character to have a hardcore following, but he’s proven his worth these past couple of rounds, and I give him the edge of Leon here. This should be a good one. Dante – 31% Leon – 29% Pikachu – 20% Amaterasu –20% Bracket: Leon > Dante Vote: Dante --- "Ha! No spoony bard could spin a sweeter tale!" |
| Big Bob | Posted 10/25/2007 9:50:07 PM | message detail | #249 |
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Ulti said the word "obvious" DANTE > PIKACHU CONFIRMED --- "You're slowing going from Nixon to Mr. Burns." -Jon Stewart on Bush |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/25/2007 9:51:29 PM | message detail | #250 |
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Leon > Amaterasu --- Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package. |
