GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VI Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/17/2007 9:22:59 PM | message detail | #151 |
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Division 7: Round 2 - Match 46 – Solid Snake vs. Nightmare vs. Ryu Hayabusa vs. Riku Moltar’s Analysis Snake Round 1 – 57.88% vs. Nightmare, Rayman and Vyse Snake domination like always. Nightmare Round 1 – 22.47% vs. Snake, Rayman and Vyse Doubted againstt Vyse? Nightmare proves the haters wrong! Ryu Round 1 – 45.80% vs. Riku, Roxas and Haseo Still amazing. Riku Round 1 – 27.24% vs. Ryu, Roxas and Haseo Kingdom Dud I’m almost starting to hate this Division as much as 6. Well, my bracket is anyway. Last round, Snake rocked his four-pack, and he’s a lock to take first here. He is only like one of the strongest characters on this site, and besides, battles for first are like…rare-stuff. Battles for second? That’s where the action is at! This one is between Ryu H., Riku and Nightmare. As much as I hate to say it, you can count Nightmare out here. I’m personally hoping he pulls an Amaterasu and beats out Ryu H. and Riku, but it isn’t likely, especially with the way one of them performed last round. Ryu H.? More like when in the hell did you get so strong! He goes from looking like a low-midcarder in his past contest matches to beating out Riku and Roxas conbined. what. A stunt like that pretty much guarantees you second with a group like this. Now, of course there are some wrenches that may throw that prediction off track. First up is Solid Snake. Could Snake steal away Ryu’s casual support last round (similar to what might have happened between Master Chief and Liquid)? Perhaps, but I don’t see Riku holding up either if that happens. Please refer to Snake/Sora for reasoning. Wrench number 2 is no Roxas. We’ve seen how bad fanbase splits have hurt in the last couple of days (Vivi…Kirby =(…). Maybe Riku’s split was the reason he bombed in the poll. Well, that’s probably true, but there’s no way Riku gets all of Roxas’s votes. Even if he did, it still wouldn’t put him over Ryu. So, Snake > Ryu H. it is. I’m also totally going into fanboy mode and saying Nightmare gets third. Go Nightmare, Ammy 2.0 become you shall! Moltar’s Bracket Says: Snake > Riku Moltar’s Prediction is: Snake: 44% - Ryu H.: 23% - Nightmare: 17% - Riku: 16% Ultimaterializer’s Analysis This was an "obvious" match before the contest began, but it is such no longer. Snake can and will SFF the piss out of Nightmare and Riku, and Ryu H, who performed *very* well in the first round, will get second place pretty damn easily due to not sharing any allegiance. Is it just me, or have the Xbox characters done damn well this contest? Ulti's Prediction: Snake [45.00%] Ryu H [35.00%] Riku [13.00%] Nightmare [7.00%] Heroic Mario’s Analysis Oh, what a match this is. I have no idea what to think with this after Hayabusa’s craziness last round. I could see any of these guys, save for Snake, coming in second here. Nightmare’s got some reason to if he maintains that 20% from last round; Hayabusa’s looking like a monster; and then Riku might shoot up without any other Square or RPG character here. But I’m going to bank on Riku sneaking one out. He got rocked pretty damn hard last round – getting beat by Hayabusa even when combined with Roxas – but things might change this time. For whatever reason, I think he’s the most independent character of the group. He may have some ties with Snake, but I’m not counting on it. Sure, Hayabusa and Nightmare each have distinct fanbases of their own, but being from Square and, more specifically, KH, should give him some type of advantage…maybe. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/17/2007 9:23:14 PM | message detail | #152 |
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Yeah. There’s actually not a whole lot going for Riku. That’s about all I can think of as to why Riku might
be able to pull this off. He’d probably sooner get last before taking
second – it’s just that kinda contest. Hayabusa and Nightmare are
sporting hardcore fanbases of their own, they have less in common with
Snake as far as the platform bit goes and there has been little reason
to have any confidence in Kingdom Hearts this year. Still, I’m going to
stick with him in the off chance he ends up doing something crazy! Solid Snake – 45% Riku – 19% Hayabusa – 19% Nightmare – 17% Bracket: Snake > Riku Vote: The ‘Stache Yoblazer’s Analysis Holy Toledo, do you guys see what L-Block is doing?! Oh man oh man oh man oh man. The mighty block is on his way to Round 3, and he'll be going up against Kratos and two of the tough guys from this macho group. The question is this: which two will be joining the God of War star and Tetris icon? The answer is this: Solid Snake and who really cares. Like everyone predicted before the contest, Snake is the overwhelming favorite in his match and his entire side of the bracket, and he certainly didn't let anyone down in his last performance. Snake put up an awesome 58% a few weeks ago, and we have no reason to believe he won't look as impressive today. Yes, be on the look out for some scary stuff from the number one badass in gaming. If his match against Sora in 2005 is any indication, Riku will likely tremble before his might, and Ryu Hayabusa and Nightmare, his other opponents, are guys who are simply made for someone like Snake to step all over. Snake's victory is clear, but the second place winner ain't. Who will it be? He might not be as big a lock as Snake, but the favorite for second today must be Ryu Hayabusa. After being expected to lose to Riku last round, Hayabusa shocked us by defeating Riku and Roxas combined. It was, arguably, the most impressive performance of the first round, and one that puts him a step above his competitors going into this match. I don't think Nightmare has any chance. With Snake and Xbox Hayabusa rocking the same poll, there's just way too much badass for him to compete, so I predict a fourth place finish. Hey, at least you killed Vyse the Legend(ary bad contest performer)! And what of Riku? Well, we saw what Riku was made of last round, and boy, was it disappointing. All logic dictates that he'd have no shot even if he picked up an unbelievably high percentage of Roxas' votes, and while I don't think he'll pull it out, I wouldn't be surprised if he made it tantalizingly close. Riku did have a pretty severe fanbase split, and I do feel that, despite the giant turd laid by Sora two years ago, he'll resist Snake's rage better than Hayabusa or Nightmare. Hayabusa should take it, but I'm thinking Riku will make it close enough to surprise most of the Stats Topic. Hopefully, this isn't just my Kingdom Hearts fanboyism talking... Solid Snake - 48% Ryu Hayabusa - 20% Riku - 18% Nightmare - 14% Lopen’s Analysis Aw yeah, I can imagine the epic exchange between Hayabusa and Snake right now... *Snake creeps around the corner* *Ryu Hayabusa (!!!)* Snake: You're that ninja! Ryu: Just a snake... get out of here! ... or something like that. Question I'm thinkin to myself as I look at this group: Do Snake, Nightmare, and Riku have more combined badassery than Dante? Nah, I guess they don't... but damn, this four pack was well on its way to supplanting last year's Dante/Hayabusa round 1 match's title of "most badasery packed into one match." Okay, fine... onto the actual results of match! |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/17/2007 9:24:06 PM | message detail | #153 |
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I expect Ryu to hold up very well here. I think this is the kinda format that's gonna help him a lot. Watch out for the Hayabusa > Kratos (and *shudder*... L-Block)
hype train... it's comin! Now admittedly, that's not what I was thinkin
when I filled out my bracket. Foolish that such a fanatical proponent
of Master Chief's strength in this format would not.. but eh. When I
filled out my bracket I was thinkin quite simply... "oh ya oh ya Riku
gonna be Snake food just like Sora." And unfortunately for Riku, even
though he doesn't need to be Snake food, I still think he will be here.
Fresh Riku, better than mice. What a Nightmare for him, being stuck
with... as they call him... the Legendary Solid Snake. That ninja has this with relative ease. Lopen's prediction: Solid Snake - 38.08% Ryu Hayabusa - 30.13% Riku - 17.79% Nightmare - 14.00% Karma Hunter’s Analysis I may have to be typing this from a computer lab and walk ten miles home tonight, but you can bet there's no way in hell I'm missing the writeup for a Snake match. SOLID SNAKE Putting up about as much as Mario in his match last round, Snake looks as good as he ever has. With Sonic getting a taste of that SSBB magic that worked so many wonders with him last year, Master Chief soaking up his 'roids and threatening to eat your family, and - dare I say it? - L-Block waiting in the wings, he can't show a single moment of weakness today. No... no, that kind of stuff is for the sprite round... Nightmare Finally silencing most of the doubters out there (yours truly was among those ranks, shamefully!), Nightmare explodes onto the scene, overcoming a terrifyingly bad picture to muscle his way into the second round. 22% on Snake wouldn't exactly be anything to scoff at even if it were a one-on-one poll. And that's a good thing, because his picture certainly isn't granting him any favors today... Ryu Hayabusa A moderate upset turns into a MASSIVE result when Hayabusa not only beats down Riku in a match that Riku was favored to win, but beats down Roxas and Riku combined. In response you've got desperate BRACKETS grasping at straws like 80% overlap between Riku and Roxas (not to mention Haseo), but Ryu H. remains the dominating favorite to progress here. In fact, I can think of only one reason why he wouldn't progress... Riku Wow, Riku. Ending up almost twice as close to Roxas as you did to Hayabusa - the guy you were supposed to BEAT last round regardless - is pretty bad. That's not what 45% on Yoshi would have suggested, the overrated (in every sense of the word) dino's status aside. Can he redeem himself here with the absence of MASSIVE OVERLAP? (the answer is no. however...) So... where do we go from here? The obvious choice here seems to be Snake > Ryu H., and there are few things that seem to contend with it. Ryu H. is almost assuredly the most independent character here, with the other three characters having strong Sony ties that Snake has presumably taken advantage of before. I guess you could say that Riku is the least 'badass' character here, but 1.) Riku is still the closest thing KH has to a badass and 2.) it's not a GOOD thing to not be a badass. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/17/2007 9:24:21 PM | message detail | #154 |
| Is there any iffiness here? Sure. Nightmare is
relatively untested, and his 22-23% on Snake may be a LOT better than
some give it credit for. Granted, that's hard to assert when Ryu H. put
up Noble Nine level caliber performance with 45%, but with significant overlap between two of his opponents and the other being Hasewho?...
you get the idea. And there's even a shot for Riku to progress here,
albeit very small... the overlap is what will put him closer, the
unpredictability of the format moreso... but more than anything is a
suspicion that Ryu H. may have benefited from an 'Xbox bump' that
happened directly following the release of Halo 3. If it has cooled by
now, that could give Riku the window to slip through... but if that's
the case, what do you say about Master Chief? If that Xbox bump
happened last time, it has a good shot of being there this time. I'm
giving the other side significantly more credit than it's worth, at any
rate. Hayabusa wins. ...oh, can't forget the most important part of the match. How does SNAKE do? Um... um... okay, okay, 65% might have been out of the realm of reality last time. (I blame Nightmare) ...but the second time's always a charm! Karma Hunter's Vote: do I have to keep saying it yes I do VOTE SNAKE Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Solid Snake with 50%, Ryu Hayabusa with 20%, Riku with 16%, Nightmare with 14% I *really* want to push the envelope and make a Nightmare > Riku prediction here, but I won't disrespect Riku that much... or give Nightmare that kind of credit... yet. Upset Probability: 20% Um... see above, I guess? Transience’s Analysis woo block this match is all about gauging how legit Ryu Hayabusa is. Hayabusa may have been round 1's most impressive performer relative to expectations. he beat Riku and Roxas combined and racked up a huge percentage, something few other characters were able to do. how legitimate was it? did Riku just absolutely bomb this year? well, we're about to find out. what better test for a character than Snake? Snake has been hanging around at Mario's level the last couple of years, and if Ryu can get a decent percentage on him, then we'll know how good he is. we'll also get to see how Riku stands up against Snake. two years ago, Snake doubled Sora up in the most surprising match of the entire contest. was it due to that horrid picture advantage or some overlap between MGS and KH? if Riku bombs, we'll find out.. or maybe he was just weak to begin with. Nightmare is pretty much a non-factor in this match unless some crazy loyal fighting game fanbase comes through. I can't see that happening, though -- this is all Snake and Ryu. Riku could get all of Roxas's votes and still lose to Ryu H. transience's prediction: Snake with 46.56%, Ryu Hayabusa with 22.16%, Riku with 18.49%, Nightmare with 12.79% Guest’s Analysis - Who Cares? Previously, on Division 7… Solid Snake takes care of Vyse & Rayman in typical Solid Snake fashion, with his victims muttering something about a cardboard box with their last breaths. Nightmare then comes strolling along a bit later, notices the two dead bodies and takes the opportunity to feast on their oh so delicious souls. Mmmmmmm, SOOOOOOULS! Meanwhile, Riku & Roxas were busy checking the job board to earn enough munny to get on the Disney Train to reach the finish line together. However, Ryu Hayabusa was busy hacking, slashing, slicing, & dicing Haseo every which way and sprinted to 1st place. Riku then had enough of the boring jobs, clubbed Roxas in the head, stole his munny, & rode the train to 2nd place. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/17/2007 9:25:11 PM | message detail | #155 |
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*** Okay let’s get the easy parts out of the way, at least what should be the easy parts…with as wacky as most of these matches have been since Sephiroth>Fox, you almost don’t want to call anything a lock anymore. But this part I’m sure of, Snake will be 1st. And although it will be convincing, he’ll he hard-pressed to have another 50% performance now that he won’t be sharing the poll with a couple of nobodies. (And NO, that wasn’t a cleaver Kingdom Hearts related pun.) And Nightmare will be least likely to advance. While he did his job in proving he at least has passable strength in these contests (And you don’t know how satisfied this Soul Calibur fan was to see him advance as easily as he did, finally silencing his biggest detractors), he’ll have to wait until next year when Soul Calibur 4 & Soul Calibur Legends is released to see if he can build upon that. As for the main event, the pre-contest script was fairly simple: Ryu takes advantage of SFF (or LFF, whatever you guys are calling it these days) to grab 1st place, but Riku returns to ‘full’ strength next round and grabs 2nd for himself, sending Ryu packing. But this was the same exact script for the other Ryu and we all saw how that played out over a week ago. The most unsettling thing about that 1st round match wasn’t that Hayabusa ran away with 1st place, but that he managed to outscore Riku & Roxas COMBINED! That performance has turned Hayabusa into the favorite in my eyes. If you’re one of those people that have Snake>Riku like me, you can take solace in a few things: (1)Kingdom Hearts has proven time & time again to have a rabid fanbase, so you have to figure a good chunk of the people that voted for either of the KH duo last round will likely toss their vote Riku’s way. (2) A dominant casual force like Snake will definitely hold down Hayabasa, making the needed turnaround much more likely. (3) Last year, Hayabusa only scored 35% on Dante, while Riku scored 45% on Yoshi, the guy who went on to beat Dante in a 50/50 affair. However there’s one major thing you have to consider against Riku, and that’s the infamous Snake/Sora match from 2005. One of the most baffling matches in contest history, Sora, just one year removed from scoring 34.15% on Samus Aran, only does 0.59% better on what was once one of the weakest Noble Niners. The major reasons for this were either the major pic advantage for Snake or some wacky Playstation SFF, who really knows? But if it has anything to do with the latter, Riku will be in deep doo-doo right from the start & we’ll know it! All in all, I think when you have 3 casual friendly characters in the same poll, and one of them is Snake, something’s gotta give. Ultimately, this match will be decided by how much of a lead Hayabusa has after the first hour & before the Afterschool Vote hits. But I just have a gut feeling Riku will have just enough going for him to steal 2nd. Bracket: Snake>Riku Vote: Nightmare…he says he’d devour my soul if I didn’t! >.> Prediction: Snake 45.11%, Riku 20.01%, Ryu H. 18.88%, Nightmare 16% Crew Consensus: Ryu did too well last round, Snake > Ryu it is! |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/17/2007 9:29:45 PM | message detail | #156 |
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why the hell are people picking riku he isn't L-block ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| Lopen | Posted 10/17/2007 9:45:04 PM | message detail | #157 |
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How do I not have the highest Hayabusa prediction!? Dammit, Ulti... you and your absurd percentages! --- "GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/17/2007 10:00:10 PM | message detail | #158 |
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DpOblivion's Unofficial Quick Analysis: I would love to see Ryu take 2nd here, and why should I follow my bracket when it's been so terrible. But I made the Ryu > Riku pick in the 1st round, with Snake > Riku, and I'm sticking to it, even if Ryu topped both Riku and Roxas, and Snake and Riku are both PS2 to Ryu's Xbox. I wish I could say more, but I waited too long to start. DpOblivion's bracket says: Snake > Riku DpOblivion's prediction is: Snake > Riku Confidence Rating: 60% Snake - 45% Riku - 22% Ryu Hayabusa - 20% Nightmare - 13% --- Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket *LETS GO GIANTS* |
| Tatl | Posted 10/17/2007 10:07:17 PM | message detail | #159 |
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If anyone is wanting to do the Sub-Zero, Sonic, Duke, Gordon match...go ahead. I'm not interested in it anymore. (I stopped being interested when Ike lost.) --- The Perfect Midna moveset: http://smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=3008652#post3008652 |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/17/2007 10:08:14 PM | message detail | #160 |
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From Tatl Posted 10/18/2007 12:07:17 AM #159 If anyone is wanting to do the Sub-Zero, Sonic, Duke, Gordon match...go ahead. I'm not interested in it anymore. (I stopped being interested when Ike lost.) Doesn't Moltar not let you pick until the results have been locked in? Which means Ike would have already lost when you picked that match... ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| Tatl | Posted 10/18/2007 12:36:06 PM | message detail | #161 |
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Doesn't Moltar not let you pick until the results have been locked
in? Which means Ike would have already lost when you picked that
match... I picked it way back at the beginning of the tournament. Even did a write-up for it. Then Ike lost...and I didn't want it anymore. --- The Perfect Midna moveset: http://smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=3008652#post3008652 |
| satai_delenn | Posted 10/18/2007 7:51:33 PM | message detail | #162 |
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I'll do it, if Moltar says it's okay--I have already done one this round though. --- My Contest Hero: SHOULD have been Axel. Ugh. Currently playing: Aria of Sorrow, Silent Hill 2, Super Mario RPG |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/18/2007 7:52:19 PM | message detail | #163 |
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He said earlier that he doesn't care any more. If the guest doesn't show, whoever gets it in first wins. ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/18/2007 7:55:41 PM | message detail | #164 |
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Kirby................24.81% 33122 L-Block...........28.33% 37825 Kratos.............32.48% 43362 Donkey Kong..14.39% 19213 TOTAL VOTES...........133522 15.40% of the brackets predicted 1st correctly. 2.14% of the brackets predicted 2nd correctly. 33.29% of the brackets predicted 1st to come in 2nd. 4.53% of the brackets predicted 2nd to come in 1st. Crew Predictions: Fully Correct - 30; Half Correct - 14; Barely Correct - 2 what Kirby lost to L-Block what what what DOES NOT COMPUTE Crew Prediction Challenge - Tran's point Guest (Turtle "2", Kleenex, Who Cares?, Sensi, Luis, XII, l3fty, Gadds, Bob) - 10 Lopen - 7 HM - 6 Yoblazer - 6 KH - 4 Tran - 4 Moltar - 3 Ulti - 2 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Tran gets points for Kratos and Kirby, Yo gets points for L-Block and DK. Yoblazer - 34 Guest (Bokonon_Lives "2", Dp, Turtle "5", Ashe "2", Kleenex "3", Who Cares? "2", chocobo, Richard, Xcarvenger "2", Sensi, Darunia, satai "3", Bio "2", Luis "2", XIII "2", l3fty, Gadds, Bob) - 33 HM - 32 Lopen - 23 Moltar - 22 Ulti - 21 Tran - 21 KH - 17 --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Snake/Nightmare/Ryu/Riku - Bracket: Snake > Riku - Vote: Nightmare (191/232) |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/18/2007 9:15:01 PM | message detail | #165 |
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Division 8: Round 2 - Match 47 – Squall Leonhart vs. Aeris Gainsborough vs. Sora vs. Lara Croft Moltar’s Analysis Squall Round 1 – 35.33% vs. Aeris, Akuma and Geno Does just fine. Aeris Round 1 – 25.48% vs. Squall, Akuma and Geno Almost let Akuma get the best of her! Sora Round 1 – 41.87% vs. Lara, Wesker and Daxter Kingdom you know the drill… Lara Round 1 – 25.84% vs. Sora, Wesker and Daxter Almost let Wesker get the best of her! Well, this match is a cluster****distaster. 3 Square characters who all appeared in the same game and the PS2 platformer queen. Where does this one go? SFF can go all sorts of ways here. The one who benefits the most from it, I think, is Squall. He did well last round by getting enough on Aeris to where Akuma almost beat her. I also don’t think Sora proves to be a threat to him, as Squall would likely SFF Sora one on one as well. He’s just stronger. The winner for second is the one who withstands SFF the most. It’s either that, or get a double SFF beatdown. Aeris has proven to SFF Sora in the past, but that was a long time ago. Still, Aeris is FF7, and I think that gives precedence over Kingdom Hearts. I’m not exactly sure why I’m going against my bracket here. I like Aeris’s chances better now I guess, even though she didn’t do much to spur confidence last round. Oh, and you can’t forget about Lara here. Struggling against Wesker or not, she stands a VERY real chance of advancing if Sora or Aeris get too messed up. We’ve seen bad SFF splits before, and this is Lara’s perfect chance to pull a Pikachu and squeeze out a win. Moltar’s Bracket Says: Squall > Sora Moltar’s Prediction is: Squall: 32% - Aeris: 24% - Sora: 23% - Lara: 21% Ultimaterializer’s Analysis This is *such* a brutal match to pick, because I despise Aeris yet can't shake that 2003 match between her and Sora. Add in Squall helping her out to SFF him and Lara not quite being strong enough to be a factor in this, and you likely have the two square characters finishing 1-2. The only thing making me question this match a bit is how badly Aeris performed in the first round. She could have lost to Akuma, and Sora is stronger than Akuma. If Aeris gets SFFd and Sora... doesn't get *as* SFFd, Sora could take second place here. Screw it, I'm picking Squall > Sora for this, even though I have the safe pick in my bracket. **** you, Aeris. Go kill yourself. lol wate i mess up lololo Ulti's Prediction: Squall [35.00%] Sora [25.00%] Aeris [24.00%] Lara [16.00%] Heroic Mario’s Analysis This is one of those debated match-ups in the bracket that I’ve never had any real trouble with. I’ve seen picks all over the place on this one – Squall, Aeris and Sora, all either first or second. But I don’t see there to be much reason for debate, as it seems pretty clear to me that Squall and Aeris, out of this particular pack, are the pretty clear choices. I don’t think I’ll ever trust Sora up against another notable Final Fantasy character. The Aeris/Sora match may have been three years ago, and Sora may have gotten another big game since, but I’m not sold on him being able to withstand SFF from characters that the Square fanbase rallies behind first and foremost. Even if he does hold up better against Aeris than he did a few years back, Squall should bring the hurt. Aeris may be a non-factor in the KH games, but Squall’s one of its coolest, which means even the “exclusive” KH fanbase has reason enough to opt for Squall instead of Sora. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/18/2007 9:15:35 PM | message detail | #166 |
| Taking away that Square support leaves him with
the dedicated KH fanbase. You can say that could push him through here
with Squall hurting Aeris a bit too, but I don’t think so. The KH
fanbase may be a dedicated bunch, but they’re still nowhere near the
size of the FF7 base. If it came down to dedication, I think Aeris
would be perfectly fine here. But that said, I’m not trying to sell Sora short. He’s obviously a legit character with his own strength, and I think he might be a bit above Aeris indirectly, but stick him up against her and I think he collapses. Final Fantasy takes precedence above all others on the Square pecking order, and Sora not being a Final Fantasy character puts him a distinct disadvantage here, I think. Consider me pretty surprised if Sora manages to advance. If has gotten that type of pull even against FF7 and FF8, I’d have a bit more respect for what he could do as a whole. As it stands, though, I think the best he can hope for is to not getting hit hard enough with SFF to finish behind Lara. Watch as Sora somehow manages to take first place here – it’s that kinda contest! Squall – 35% Aeris – 26% Sora – 21% Lara Croft – 18% Bracket: Squall > Aeris Vote: Aeris Yoblazer’s Analysis Is it just me, or is one of the most anticipated matches of the second round suddenly feeling a lot less anticipated? Perhaps it's the fact that nearly all of our brackets are long since dead and buried, or the fact that the lest round answered some of our lingering questions, but our 2007 Megahot Square Threesome isn't generating nearly as much excitement as it was pre-contest. Despite this, we could still be in for a good match. While the first round told us with relative certainty that Squall Leonhart should take first place without a hitch, the battle between Aeris and Sora for second place is still somewhat debated. Also throwing her frame (err... name, LOL) is Lara Croft, who some are speculating may take advantage of the severe SFF/LFF/whatever-you-wanna-call-it between her competitors and sneak into first place, completely humiliating the Square character she leaves in her dust. While I don't think it will happen, it certainly could, and it would prove to be entertaining to.. uhh... some people. Busty McBoobyparts aside, the main point of analysis for this match is still Sora/Aeris. Now, when discussing these contests, you really can't find better evidence than direct matches, and the one between Sora and Aeris in 2003 remains one of the more infamous SFF matches in contest history. In said match, Aeris slapped the Kingdom Hearts protagonist to the tune of a doubling, making god damned 2003 Master Chief look significantly stronger. Yes, a lot has happened since then. Yes, Sora received Kingdom Hearts II. Yes, Sora may very well be more SFF-resistant as he becomes a more established character in gaming. No, I still don't think those factors will be able to counter an SFF doubling. The fact of the matter is this: Aeris still spanked him, and she's still a prominent Final Fantasy VII character, which puts her about two steps ahead of anything Kingdom Hearts. Seeing as how my bracket is long gone, I'd love to see Sora sneak in there, but I simply don't see it happening. Squall Leonhart - 34% Aeris Gainsborough - 24% Sora - 22% Lara Croft - 20% Lopen’s Analysis Alright, alright... fun match here... even a case for Lara friggin Croft to advance could be made. So here's why she's going to win... as we know, Tomb Raider: Another Game has just been released and damn I'm calli-- Okay, no, I'm not going that way. Aeris has this, I mean, look at what she did to Sora in 2003! Sure, KH2 has since come out, but you can't make up that kinda SFF with a third party release on a minor system! Sora is going to look worse than Ge-- Okay, no, I'm not going that way either. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/18/2007 9:16:08 PM | message detail | #167 |
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I think Sora has come a really long way since 2003. He's no longer just
the dude with the big feet who you play as in game with the Disney and
FF characters in it... no, he's actually got a good amount of fans now.
Kingdom Hearts has evolved into a whole nother beast... I'd be more
weary of Snake SFFing him than Squall or Aeris, just because we've seen
Snake smash him in 2005. Though Riku holding up yesterday makes me
think that maybe Snake also had a cameo appearance in Ninja Gaiden
Sigma when we weren't looking. Brawl, Ninja Gaiden, Kingdom Hearts...
man, Snake's becoming worse than Dante when it comes to random cameo
appearances! Um... what was the topic again? Oh, right, Sora. Sora is mostly independent of new school FF now I think. Because of that, he not only vaults over Aeris with ease, but gives Squall a little scare since Squall is getting hurt more by Aeris there than Sora is. And clearly, because Riku was able to squeak by Ryu Hayabusa, KH had a massive boost from round 1, since as we all know Hayabusa is a potential noble nine breaker... he would've beat Samus in 2004 without the Arabusa getup you know...</classic bracket mistake reminiscing> Lopen's prediction: Squall - 32.45% Sora - 30.30% Aeris - 21.15% Character: Some Fodder - 16.10% Transience’s Analysis this match is downright weird - three Square characters pulling from three popular games (and two of them overlapping into one of them), and then a much weaker character that's far more independent. let's start with the Squareheads: Squall seems like the obvious choice for first. he's front-and-center in both FF8 and Kingdom Hearts, and is more likable than Sora in the latter. he's already beaten Aeris, who is from a game that's twice as popular as him. he's also shown over the years to be the strongest statistically. it's tough to make an argument where Squall doesn't take first place. Sora is probably second strongest statistically, having put up an impressive percentage on Mega Man -- better than what Aeris got against Zelda. Sora's problem is that KH fans tend to like Squall more and that he seems to flop against FF. like Aeris, for example. Aeris doubled Sora in 2003, causing the only real "upset" in 2004 -- Sora over Ryu. this is basically the only argument for Aeris placing in this match, because according to 2006 she's a shell of her former self. however, 25% of the site believes FF7 is the greatest game ever, and 25% voted for Aeris last round when she was in a match with Squall. I trust most of that 25% to back Aeris, and while I don't think that 2003 match with Sora means a lot today, I'm taking it as evidence that Aeris can still lay an old-fashioned beatdown on Sora. throw in that Squall overshadows Sora in his own game and that NOTHING can SFF FF7, and I feel good about Aeris placing here. well, better than Sora, anyway. then there's Lara, the ultimate x-factor. Lara has a great chance of placing with the three Square guys splitting votes so hard. all she needs is like 24% or something. I thought she disappointed in her round 1 match (seriously, Wesker?), but I wouldn't mind having her in my bracket -- I think all three of these guys could make a run for second here, and there's no way to feel confident otherwise. I'll feel good if I simply get the order right. Squall, Sora, Aeris who gets second? can Lara cause bracket death? ...nah. transience's prediction: Squall with 30.73%, Aeris with 24.01%, Sora with 23.33%, Lara with 21.93% Guest’s Analysis - Ed Bellis A serious analysis for a change? Couldn’t hurt, eh? Match 47(?): Of Squares and Blocky, Polygonal Circles There’s SFF (or LFF, or QVC or whatever the hell people are calling it nowadays) to spare here, folks. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/18/2007 9:16:45 PM | message detail | #168 |
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Three Square heavy-hitters duking it out, with Lara Croft just sort of
chilling in the background. Who moves on? Tough to say… sort of. Let’s
break it down: Aeris: Notable and spoiler-riffic character from the site’s biggest game, Final Fantasy 7. SFFed the holy hell out of Sora way back in 2003, back before Kingdom Hearts 2 actually gave the kid a fanbase. Came in second last round. Squall: Star of Final Fantasy 8 and just below Noble Nine status (Solid Snake aside >_>). Won last round by a great deal; also managed to SFF the hell out of Tidus last year, for what it’s worth. Sora: Star of the Kingdom Hearts series, which also stars Aeris and Squall in a supporting role. Should be doing better than he is for the sake of my bracket !! Lara Croft: Busty heroine of Tomb Raider. She gets the scraps. Though my bracket says otherwise (I was banking on a Kingdom Hearts juggernaut that seems unlikely to emerge at any point), Squall seems like the clear favorite to move on. He beat Aeris handily in Round One and it seems likely that he could do the same to Sora. I’m going to still go out on a limb and say that Sora takes second, though I could easily see Aeris getting it. And Lara Croft should actually overperform, as we bear witness to that rare event of four-way matches: anti-voting! All three characters are Squaresoft. Bet Lara gets a lot of votes from people who just don’t like the company. Not enough, but enough to make her look pretty good. Prediction: Watch your back, Aeris! Squall: 36.05% Sora: 23.66% Aeris: 22.77% Lara: 17.52% Crew Consensus: 4 have Squall > Aeris, 3 have Squall > Sora. |
| DpObliVion | Posted 10/18/2007 9:59:31 PM | message detail | #169 |
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DpOblivion's Unofficial Supposedly-Quick-But-Apparently-Not Analysis: Okay, let's continue pretending I didn't make a bracket.... Okay, this match isn't as bad as DK > Kratos, but it's still a continuance of an absolutely embarrassing 2nd round for me, and I'll be happy to get 4 points here. For whatever reason, I severely overestimated Sora this contest, and it's about time my bracket pays the price. I just hope he can stay in 2nd for me to get those 4 points, though I could certainly be facing another 2 point day. Squall is a very popular lead of a FF game, plus a nice-sized (I think?) cameo in Kingdom Hearts. He should come out on top in the SFF battle over both Aeris and Sora. The main question is between Aeris and Sora for 2nd. I'm fairly confident in Sora though, mainly because I don't have much confidence in Aeris doing well with SFF coming from 2 different angles, from two different lead characters. What will help her though is that she if from the almighty Final Fantasy VII, plus the whole spoiler thing. But what about Lara Croft? Yeah, she doesn't look good against 3 strong competitors, but against 3 RPG characters, how much of the non-RPG vote can she get? I wouldn't be too surprised if she cracked 20%, and could even make a run at Aeris I think if the SFF does go against her hard. DpOblivion's bracket says: Sora > Squall Confidence Rating: 10% DpOblivion's prediction is: Squall > Sora Confidence Rating: 40% Squall - 35% Sora - 26% Aeris - 22% Lara Croft - 18% --- Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket *LETS GO GIANTS* |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/19/2007 5:34:41 PM | message detail | #170 |
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Solid Snake.......47.72% 60407 Nightmare.........13.94% 17654 Ryu Hayabusa..18.91% 23942 Riku....................19.43% 24596 TOTAL VOTES..............126599 78.47% of the brackets predicted 1st correctly. 33.25% of the brackets predicted 2nd correctly. 8.93% of the brackets predicted 1st to come in 2nd. 4.29% of the brackets predicted 2nd to come in 1st. Crew Predictions: Fully Correct - 30; Half Correct - 15; Barely Correct - 2 Ryu lost his casual support to Snake, and it hurt him bad. Riku is able to advance over the Ninja, and moves on with Snake to Round 2. Crew Prediction Challenge - HM gets the point. Guest (Turtle "2", Kleenex, Who Cares?, Sensi, Luis, XII, l3fty, Gadds, Bob) - 10 Lopen - 7 HM - 7 Yoblazer - 6 KH - 4 Tran - 4 Moltar - 3 Ulti - 2 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Yo gets the point for Snake, Guest gets the point for Ryu H., HM gets the point for Riku, and Yo, KH and Lopen get points for Nightmare. Yoblazer - 36 Guest (Bokonon_Lives "2", Dp, Turtle "5", Ashe "2", Kleenex "3", Who Cares? "3", chocobo, Richard, Xcarvenger "2", Sensi, Darunia, satai "3", Bio "2", Luis "2", XIII "2", l3fty, Gadds, Bob) - 34 HM - 33 Lopen - 24 Moltar - 22 Ulti - 21 Tran - 21 KH - 18 --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Squall/Aeris/Sora/Lara - Bracket: Squall > Sora - Vote: Squall (199/240) |
| Who Cares? | Posted 10/19/2007 7:42:33 PM | message detail | #171 |
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Crap, I must've JUST missed out on the point by a hair didn't I? --- Current Points: 183 -- 47th on Leaderboard 11/17/07: The day Street Fighter 4 became a reality! |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/19/2007 9:15:30 PM | message detail | #172 |
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Hey Moltar, when you putting up the topic for the signups for the rest of the contest? TuRtLe ~~~ 189/240 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Sora BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/19/2007 9:22:23 PM | message detail | #173 |
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Division 8: Round 2 - Match 48 – Duke Nukem vs. Gordon Freeman vs. Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Sub-Zero Moltar’s Analysis Duke Round 1 – 30.18% vs. Gordon, Ike and Guybrush Came to the match all out of gum. Gordon Round 1 – 28.76% vs. Duke, Ike and Guybrush Never wins. Sonic Round 1 –39.64% vs. Sub-Zero, Prince of Persia and Joe Continues the amazing performances of Sonic characters. Sub-Zero Round 1 – 32.89% vs. Sonic, Prince of Persia and Joe Subby’s a beast! Well, after a wild week, things end on a calm note. Thanks to last round, there shouldn’t be any surprises in store. Sonic’s going to disappoint, Sub-Zero’s going to impress, and Gordon and Duke are no factors. Seriously, the winners of the weakest fourpack in this Contest are going to have a tough time outdoing Sonic and Subby’s Round 1 opponents. bubububut ORANGE BOX. Pssh, people didn’t buy it for HL2, they bought it for PORTAL. GlaDOS and Companion Cube in the next contest MAKE IT HAPPEN BOARD 8! Er, I mean…Better luck next time, boys! Sonic is pretty safe here, but he’s going to need to pull some better numbers somehow. Sonic: I know how to do that! *calls up Sega* Sega: !!! *calls up Nintendo* Nintendo: !!! *calls up Sakurai* Sakurai: …aww yeah, we got Sonic, *****es. That’s right, Sonic has jumped on the Brawl hype train. Will he look better this round because of it? We’ll see! Moltar’s Bracket Says: Sonic > Sub-Zero Moltar’s Prediction is: Sonic: 42% - Sub-Zero: 33% - Gordon: 14% - Duke: 11% Ultimaterializer’s Analysis Making a lazy writeup here, because god damn if this match isn't obvious as hell and I have a PSP to fight with. And no amount of Ulti Jinx is messing this one up, either. Sonic > Subby. Peeeeeriod. Ulti's Prediction: Sonic [39.00%] Sub-Zero [33.00%] Duke [15.00%] Gordon [13.00%] Heroic Mario’s Analysis Normally, I’d figure this would be one of the most boring matches of the contest because we just saw this same match last round. But between then and now, Sonic’s been announced for Brawl – cue BRAWLFEAR – and it’ll be one of the few times we’re going to get to compare a character pre-boost to post-boost in the same year, assuming there’s any boost at all. That said, Sonic shouldn’t be doing anything too outrageous here. Yeah, he got announced for this site’s most anticipated game, and he looks pretty cool in the trailer, but unlike Snake before him, I think many people had been expecting to see him announced at some point. Then again, that didn’t seem to stop the excitement over him when he did finally get shown. But you gotta figure that being announced in Brawl doesn’t mean you’re going to turn into a beast – at least I would hope not. Other than that, though, there’s not much to see here. Sub-Zero takes second, regardless of what Brawl does, while Duke and Freeman battle it out for third. Woohoo time for round 3. Sonic – 38% Sub-Zero – 30% Gordon Freeman – 16% Duke Nukem – 16% Bracket: Sonic > Sub-Zero Vote: …uh… Yoblazer’s Analysis I'm in a terrible rush, so this will be short. Just like the final match of the last round, we're set for a match in which Sonic is guaranteed first and Sub-Zero is guaranteed second. Duke and Gordon simply do not have the fanbase and status to compete with the site's #2 fighting game icon. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/19/2007 9:22:52 PM | message detail | #174 |
| Seeing as how this match offers infinitely tougher
competition, I expect most of Duke's support to fade, allowing Gordon
to gain vengeance and a third place finish. I also expect a better
performance out of Sonic - partly because of Brawl; partly because my
gut tells me to. Sonic - 41% Sub-Zero - 30% Gordon - 16% Duke - 13% Duke Nukem's Analysis The Duke knows that his fans aren't going to abandon him for this match. You wanna know why, boy? Let the Duke tell you why. Who is going to steal my votes? The Duke will start with Gordon Freeman. The Duke already kicked his ass last round... he didn't even need the bubble gum. He sees that nancy boy trying to look all sassy. Like the Duke gives two pieces of crap. The Duke could piss more votes than Gordon Freeman is gonna get with Sonic and Sub-Zero here, boy. The Duke sees that guy wearing the blue jumpsuit... like he's some sort of ninja. As if that's supposed to impress the Duke. The Duke knows the truth... that blue get-up, he's a refrigerator salesman, boy. The Duke saw his ads. "The only thing cooler than this refrigerator is how much you're going to save! Sub-Zero down! Sub-Zero dollars a month for the first six months!" Oh, and it goes deeper than that, boy. His blood feud... with the yellow one.. it's because the yellow one was selling grills, boy, claiming they made things "toasty." The Duke remembers his pitch too... "GET OVER HERE... AND SAVE!" Like the Duke needs a grill or a refrigerator. The point is... The Duke isn't going to lose votes to some pansy ass ninja-wannabe-salesman, boy. Last we've got that blue grease rat with the spikes. The favorite to win. The Duke heard this little pissant talk, and could've swore he stuck him in a locker once. In fact he did, tied that Urkel punk by his suspenders. "Did I do that??? Hehehe *snort*" Oh yeah, boy, if that means get your ass kicked by the Duke, you did do that. His new Brawl appearance isn't going to mean crap. The Duke just kicked the ass of one of those Brawl people last round, it doesn't intimidate the Duke. The Duke is here to kick ass and get votes... and he's all out of votes. ... let the Duke redo that, the Duke has plenty of votes... the Duke is here to kick ass and win matches, and he's all out of ass. No, let the Duke try again, the Duke has plenty of ass to kic-- *camera abruptly cuts out to a test screen* The Duke's prediction: Duke Nukem - 30.18% Sonic the Hedgehog - 30% Sub-Zero - 25% Gordon Freeman - 14.82% Lopen's Analysis Don't listen to the Duke's lies. Cept maybe the stuff about the roots of the Sub-Zero Scorpion rivalry, I've always believed that too. Lopen's prediction: Sonic the Hedgehog - 39.64% Sub-Zero - 29.36% Gordon Freeman - 17.45% (overperforms as the odds are stacked against him, not because of the orange box, bo--*ahem*) Duke Nukem - 13.55% (fight, crusader for dairy based beverages and extended release delays, for everlasting peace!) Karma Hunter’s Analysis After making a tough call yesterday (mine of which will be forever lost to the winds of time !!), we end this round with a rather ho-hum match... at least superficially. Duke Nukem The Dukester gets his first win in a contest since friggin'... Iori Yagami, was it? Dear Lord. And what an upset it was, toppling a mixture of Half-Life loyalties and SSBB hype. The order for today seems a mighty bit too steep considering how close Sub-Zero came to SONIC last round, but the Duke's hopes spring Forever... |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/19/2007 9:23:31 PM | message detail | #175 |
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Gordon Freeman Our Half-Life superstar, however, once again finds himself in the laughing stocks after embarrassingly not only falling to DUKE NUKEM, but almost failing to place after a not-too-shabby comeback attempt from Ike. Yeesh. Some people have mumbled some upset hype based on The Orange Box, but I really don't buy anything other than the unpredictability of the format potentially helping turn this around here... and that's a stretch just to come ahead of Nukem. Sonic the Hedgehog The most disappointing Noble Niner of last round finds it is darkest right before dawn, as an upset-primed Master Chief and co. find themselves doused by a heaping helping of SSBB hype. How does this change things? Well, if Sonic benefits as much as Snake presumably did, he'll have no trouble making it into the finals, and should place ahead of Solid each time along the way. He obviously won't benefit that much of course... so the question becomes how much he has to gain to stave off the upset rumblings that have seriously become amplified as of late... Sub-Zero Impressing beyond most expectations last round, Sub-Zero snagged his second place berth with ease and may be primed to overcome Squall in the later rounds depending on how the SFF splits. He has to continue to impress here, but like Ryu before him, I don't think he's got much chance of faltering. The important thing to watch for today is Sonic. Many will be calling for him to improve over last round's percentage, and while you'd *think* Gordon/Duke > Prince/Joe, the main reason people are calling for it is because of SSBB hype. Sonic is much more 'Nintendo' than Snake though, and a universally known name. Can he really benefit *that* much? He HAS to in order to stave of Chief, as far as I'm concerned... The rest of the breakdown is easy for the most part: Sub-Zero comes in second. He did too well for me not to give him that easy lock status. Which leaves Duke and Gordon squabbling over leftovers, and in that I believe Gordon is a king. Sonic and Sub-Zero should sap a LOT of the casual factor here, and I think Gordon edges out Duke under those circumstances. Not that it matters, but at least he won't look like the biggest loser in the world after this contest. Y'know, you'd think. C'MON ORANGE BOX Karma Hunter's Vote: SONIC THE HEDGEHOG. I CAN FEEL NINTENDO TRYING TO SUCK THE LIFE OUT OF HIM BUT THERE'S NOT MUCH LEFT UNFORTUNATELY Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Sonic the Hedgehog with 43%, Sub-Zero with 28%, Gordon Freeman with 15%, Duke Nukem with 14% You want a good benchmark to prove you're gonna hang with Snake? This is a good place to start, SNOIC Upset Probability: 5% I *really* can't see anything happening here. Maybe I should just factor out that constant 5% doubt that continues to linger... Transience’s Analysis easy match to end round 2. Sonic's a step ahead of Sub who is two or three steps ahead of Gordon or Duke. there's your analysis. but this match is interesting because we get to judge something unique: hype. the ability to compare percentages from one round to the next will be really interesting, and Sonic's Brawl announcement is probably the single biggest question mark of the entire contest right now. does it matter? how much does it matter? will he get a Snake-like boost and rise up to beat him in round 4, or is it essentially meaningless? will Sonic finally look like a Noble Niner, or is Master Chief still going to be one hell of a sexy upset pick? |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/19/2007 9:23:55 PM | message detail | #176 |
| as for how much I think it matters? a little bit.
it probably pushes him to safety vs. the Chief. Snake is looking like
an absolute beast this contest though -- stronger than Mario -- and I
think Sonic would need an otherworldly boost in order to top him there.
I can't see a guy who's already closely affiliated with the Nintendo
crowd to get such a thing. if Sonic wins this match by more than 10%,
though? I might change my mind. Sub's got that Super Shredder picture
again, so maybe Sonic overperforms. who knows? this match, while being
completely predictable, has a wide range as far as percentages go. Sub-Zero did great but now Sonic's in Brawl; will he crush Sub this time? transience's prediction: Sonic with 41.44%, Sub-Zero with 32.55%, Gordon Freeman with 13.05%, Duke Nukem with 13.00% Guest’s Analysis - satai_delenn Blue streak, speeds by… Too bad this match wasn't a week ago, I'd have given Sonic even more credit than I do. But as exciting as his Brawl announcement was, and as much as I'm sure it will boost him a bit, it shouldn't look anything like what the same thing did for Snake last year. Most people already expected Sonic, while Snake came out of absolute nowhere, and even the hype about his badass gameplay video has already faded. I'm not sure Snake's Brawl announcement hype ever faded, and that was over a year ago. Too fast for the naked eye… Certainly too fast for Gordon Freeman's bespectacled eye. Poor Gordon won't even realize the match has started before the hedgehog passes him by at sonic speeds—and then Sub-Zero will pass him at more mundane speeds. It was a miracle that Gordon managed to get this far as it was…and by "miracle" I mean "his competition was Ike and Guybrush Threepwood." >_> Still, look at that sassy face he's got there. He's ready to hunker down and put up a fight, and despite the first round's results, I think he can take third. Read on for why. Look out when he storms through… Speaking of which, who could have predicted Duke Nukem storming through to take first place last round?? Well, okay, Lopen. But not me! Bit of a surprise, though in hindsight I suppose GFNW is just fodder, while The Duke is fodder with sunglasses and lots of casual recognizability, something that seems to be very important in this format. That said, he's in way over his head now—Sonic and Sub-Zero will take that advantage from him before he can say a word about alien scum, and I think that will be enough to allow Gordon to surpass him. Don't doubt what he can do… This could very well pertain to Sub-Zero. Every year this guy surprises me, and I don't know why. Maybe because in my mind Mortal Kombat is still that hilariously bad 2D fighter on the Genesis, or something like that. But he looked pretty great in round 1 of this contest, not to mention beating Mr. Game Fuel himself last year. With even less impressive third- and fourth-place opponents this round than last, I imagine that Sub-Zero will make a damn fine showing here. However… Sonic, he can really move! Sonic, he's got an attitude! Sonic, he's the fastest thing aliiiiiive! Man, I love that song so much. Sonic in first here is no question, of course, and honestly I almost think my prediction for him is too low. But I'm erring slightly on the cautious side because somehow I always manage to underestimate casual-appeal characters like Sub-Zero. Satai's vote: The Blue Blur Satai's prediction: Duke Nukem – 9.24% Gordon Freeman – 15.41% Sonic – 40.55% Sub-Zero – 34.80% Crew Consensus: Sonic > Sub yawn |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/19/2007 9:24:44 PM | message detail | #177 |
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Hey Moltar, when you putting up the topic for the signups for the rest of the contest? ... Tomorrow! --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Squall/Aeris/Sora/Lara - Bracket: Squall > Sora - Vote: Squall (199/240) |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/20/2007 11:37:50 AM | message detail | #178 |
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Sign-ups for Round 3 are up! http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=38999557 --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Duke/Gordon/Sonic/Sub-Zero - Bracket: Sonic > Sub-Zero - Vote: Sonic (207/248) |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/20/2007 11:44:18 AM | message detail | #179 |
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Squall Leonhart...........33.56% 39993 Aeris Gainsborough...19.15% 22820 Sora...............................29.92% 35650 Lara Croft.....................17.37% 20704 TOTAL VOTES.........................119167 33.44% of the brackets predicted 1st correctly. 38.01% of the brackets predicted 2nd correctly. 12.83% of the brackets predicted 1st to come in 2nd. 9.97% of the brackets predicted 2nd to come in 1st. Crew Predictions: Fully Correct - 30; Half Correct - 15; Barely Correct - 2 This was supposed to be debated? Aeris ends up looking horrible in this match, while Sora easily advances with Squall. Crew Prediction Challenge - Lopen hits Guest (Turtle "2", Kleenex, Who Cares?, Sensi, Luis, XII, l3fty, Gadds, Bob) - 10 Lopen - 8 HM - 7 Yoblazer - 6 KH - 4 Tran - 4 Moltar - 3 Ulti - 2 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Yo gets the point for Squall, Lopen gets the point for Sora and Aeris, and Guest gets the point for Lara. Yoblazer - 37 Guest (Bokonon_Lives "2", Dp, Turtle "5", Ashe "2", Kleenex "3", Who Cares? "3", chocobo, Richard, Xcarvenger "2", Sensi, Darunia, satai "3", Bio "2", Luis "2", XIII "2", l3fty, Gadds, Bob, Ed) - 35 HM - 33 Lopen - 26 Moltar - 22 Ulti - 21 Tran - 21 KH - 18 --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Duke/Gordon/Sonic/Sub-Zero - Bracket: Sonic > Sub-Zero - Vote: Sonic (207/248) |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/20/2007 7:42:48 PM | message detail | #180 |
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Figures you put the signups up when I'm at work. **** TuRtLe ~~~ 205/256 in the contest. Next pick: Samus > Mega Man BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/20/2007 9:25:52 PM | message detail | #181 |
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Division 1: Round 3 - Match 49 – Mega Man vs. Yoshi vs. Samus vs. Scorpion Moltar’s Analysis Mega Man Round 1 – 50.49% vs. KOS-MOS, Arthas and Diablo Round 2 – 37.73% vs. Yoshi, Knuckles and KOS-MOS Samus better watch out! Yoshi Round 1 – 35.48% vs. Knuckles, Rikku and Vaan Round 2 – 28.24% vs. Mega Man, Knuckles and KOS-MOS Go Yoshi, avoid that SFF! Samus Round 1 – 51.75% vs. Frog, Axel and Kerrigan Round 2 – 45.96% vs. Scorpion, Frog and Midna And Samus responds to Mega Man with a finger. Scorpion Round 1 – 36.64% vs. Midna, Kratos and Agent 47 Round 2 – 24.01% vs. Samus, Frog and Midna What is this, 2002? Round 3 starts with a hard-hitter right off the bat. Two Noble Niners, and two not as strong series fan-favorites. Where does it go from there? Let’s find out! Unless Samus and Mega Man do some serious SFF damage to each other, Yoshi and Scorpion aren’t seeing the light of Round 4. Yoshi should hold up pretty well considering Samus will be thrown into the mix. Us Yoshi voters are quite the bunch. Even with two icons like Samus and Mega Man, we’ll still support our Yoshi! The real issue here is Samus vs. Mega Man for #1. A hotly debated match that has been tossed around too many times to count. We’ve seen that Samus underperforms against strong Nintendo competition, and some are hoping that because of this, Mega Man will be able to capitalize. Well, I’ve always been on the Samus side of the debate, and I’m not switching now. I don’t think Yoshi or Mega Man put a huge dent in Samus’s armor SFF-wise. She’s got everything Mega Man has going for him + Smash. Prime 3’s recency effect also swings the match to Samus’s side. Mega’s sprite should help him get close, but Samus has got this. Moltar’s Bracket Says: Samus > Mega Man Moltar’s Prediction is: Samus: 34% - Mega Man: 30% - Yoshi: 20% - Scorpion: 16% Ultimaterializer’s Analysis We've now reached the late rounds of the contest, and there's only 2 weeks left. Sounds exciting, but barring Snake and Sonic last year, character battles have had some anticlimactic ending rounds since 2003. This match should be no different, because it has two Noble Nineers. Scorpion has had a nice run, but his competition hasn't been good. However, Yoshi is a nice little enigma. Samus *might* SFF Mega Man enough for Yoshi to sneak into third place.... ...or not. Yoshi will do well early, but should fall far enough behind after the NPH for this to be a snooze. Ulti's Prediction: Samus [35.00%] Mega Man [30.00%] Yoshi [25.00%] Scorpion [10.00%] Heroic Mario’s Analysis Ah, the sprite round. Nothing gets people talking about upsets more than characters who get old, ugly sprites. In this case, it’s NES Samus against iconic Mega Man, with Yoshi thrown into the mix to cause problems. Most probably aren’t thinking Mega Man is going to win here, but odds are no one is going to be surprised if he does – that picture is, admittedly, very cool. Yoshi, despite not being in contention for second at all, is who is going to end up making the match. Either he’s going to hurt Samus enough for Mega Man to squeeze by, or he’s going to do nothing of note and let Samus rock the match. I suppose there’s a possibility that he hurts Mega Man and Samus about equally giving us a pretty tame result, too. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/20/2007 9:26:19 PM | message detail | #182 |
| I’m not banking on Yoshi doing a whole lot to
Samus that he isn’t going to do to Mega Man, though. I think Samus is
so far ahead of Mega Man normally, that she has quite a bit of room to
spare for any sort of SFF that may bring her down. The Blue Bomber has
been pretty solid in this format so far, and I wouldn’t be shocked if
he did manage to slip by, but he’s up against some tough competition in
Samus. I think the difference between both of them last year gave Samus
a win with something like 60/40, too, and that’s before Samus had
Corruption – whatever that accounts for. I think the best part of the match may be watching Yoshi and Scorpion go at it. Scorp’s got that dedicated fanbase backing him, and he’s easily the most independent of everyone here – it might as well be three Nintendo characters and Scorpion. For as big a match as this seems like, it should end up being pretty tame. Samus Aran – 32% Mega Man – 28% Yoshi – 20% Scorpion – 20% Bracket: Samus > Mega Man Vote: Samus Yoblazer’s Analysis Round three, baby! We got all the grunt work out of the way, and we're left with a mere two weeks left in the contest. Two weeks of rantin', ravin', votin', analyzin', fanboyin' gold. Yes, folks, this is where the real action is. Only the brave need apply, cha! The match that'll start off on the contest's final leg is also one of the third round's more anticipated matches. We have two Noble 9ers, an SFF X-Factor, and a true dark horse from years past. Of course, I'm referring to Samus Aran, Mega Man, Yoshi, and Scorpion. So far, our two respected micarders, Yoshi and Scorpion, have had good contest years. Yoshi cruised to an easy first round win and comfortably beat out Knuckles in one of the second round's debated match-ups. Scorpion, sly devil that he is, destroyed Midna on two separate occasions and shocked nearly the entire board by making it this far. Despite these fine performances, however, we all know who this match is really between, and it's one that has been years in the making. OK, so it isn't nearly as good as Samus vs. Mega Man in a traditional match, but it should still be fun to finally watch these two go at it. If Knuckles were here in Yoshi's place, I'd bet the house on a Samus victory. With a true blue Nintendo character here instead, it becomes less clear. How much will Yoshi's presence hurt Samus? Will it be enough to let Mega Man slip by? While those questions are good ones, neither are the ones I've been asking: just how "Nintendo" is Mega Man? Does he occupy a rung on the same SFF ladder as Yoshi and Samus, is he relatively independent, or is he somewhere in the middle? I believe this match will offer better answers than anything else we've seen with the Blue Bomber. I'm going to guess that Mega Man more or less is an unofficial Nintendo character, and as such, will be duking it out for the same fanbase as Samus. I also feel he's clearly the weaker of the two directly, and the only way he'll make it out of this match with the first place medal is if Yoshi really does hurt Samus significantly more. It's certainly a possibility, but it's not what I'm betting on. Samus has looked very strong in the first two rounds, and she broke Midna apart with probable SFF in her last match. I'd be feeling a bit better if she had a better picture, and I'd be feeling a LOT better if Knuckles was here instead, but I still think Samus will take it. Samus Aran - 33% Mega Man - 31% Yoshi - 18% Scorpion - 18% Lopen’s Analysis Hoo boy, here we go. Serious analysis time for an especially odd result... how has it taken so long for this? |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/20/2007 9:26:54 PM | message detail | #183 |
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I'd always considered Mega Man to be the favorite against Samus. Sorta
the same deal as with Mario in 2005. The underdog statistically, but
the favorite nonetheless. Course we can't exactly say "it's freaking
Mega Man" like we can with Mario, but this has just been my gut with
this one. Mega Man has usually looked good in SFF situations, whereas
Samus has usually looked bad. The only exception to this is their two
matches against Link... in which Samus did about as expected whereas
Mega Man flopped. I think that can be explained by the Mega Man/Link
picture (heavily weighted towards Link, totally) and Samus "reaching
out" beyond her core Nintendo fanbase, which explains why she looks
stronger against non Ninty opponents when she's not in her Malibu Suit.
And the seeming SFF strength discrepancy only hurts Samus more when
Yoshi gets thrown into the mix. So now, the match is here, and we get to see Mega Man vs Samus... and things look all the sweeter for Mega Man. Mega Man's got his charming sprite from his glory days... whereas Samus... looks like a half bird half reptile body builder. I'm pretty convinced that compared to the rest of the Metroid series and Smash, the NES game is actually incredibly weak. To me it just didn't seem very popular back in the day. I've heard people say otherwise, but having a grasp on the 8-Bit era's popularity is one thing I'm mostly confident in... only got one match from that division wrong in 2004, after all! (Damn you Pong you're not 8-Bit I blame you) As a result, I think a match where it'd be a nail biter between Mega Man and Samus... might actually end up being a nail biter between Samus and... dare I say it... SCORPION!? ... you think I'm joking, but I'm not. Why Scorpion and not Yoshi, though? I mean certainly, even if Yoshi is going to get SFFed by Mega Man he'll still look better than Scorpion, right? Well, I've got a theory on Yoshi... I think he does poorly when he has his sprite. Let's look at this history of Yoshi's sprite, shall we? 1. 2004: Yoshi gets shoved down to the neighborhood of 19% against Link. Link is cutting Yoshi's tongue off,...so that might be to blame. (Good man, Link, good man) 2. 2005: Yoshi gets decimated, over doubled by Mega Man. Yoshi is two seconds from getting shot in the face... so that might be to blame. (Good man, Mega Man, good man) 3. 2006: Yoshi does about as expected... maybe a bit better... against Snake the Purple freakin Power Ranger. Doing about as expected against Snake in the sprite round? HA! No bodily harm to save Yoshi from this "disgrace." And yes, again, Yoshi will be gettin SFFed from Mega Man/Samus here... whereas Scorpion will not. Scorpion's sprite is also the best or second best in the match, and I have faith in the fighting fanbase to not let him drop too low. If any time we're to see the upset to end all upsets, it's now. I'm not going to officially take it, just because I think Mega Man > Samus is still the likely result and very much bold enough. Just let it be known that if it does happen, I humored it! (And if it doesn't even come close you may all laugh at me) Lopen's prediction: Mega Man - 32.34% Samus - 26.05% Scorpion - 24.56% Yoshi - 17.05% Transience’s Analysis this is one of the biggest matches of the contest, if only because we've debated what might happen in a match between these two for at least two years. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/20/2007 9:27:19 PM | message detail | #184 |
| Samus is fairly notorious for being an extremely
strong character while having very little to prop her up. Metroid is
almost definitely the weakest of the Noble Nine series', and it
probably isn't even close. Mega Man is a dated, dead series, but it
*did* have a ton of fans at one point. the Metroid series has never had
anything besides niche popularity, and I doubt that any Metroid game is
even in the top 20 on this site. her 60-40 beatdown at the hands of
Mario is proof of how low her standing is with Nintendo. she seems to
be propped up by her awesome character design, her iconicness and
Smash, which is enough to beat down pretty much anybody. she draws her
strength from a bunch of sources - Metroid isn't your typical Nintendo
series but still gets votes from the Nintendo crowd - but struggles
mightily when someone saps away her core fanbase. she barely was able
to SFF Ganondorf, after all. meanwhile, Mega Man *crushed* Yoshi in 2005. Mega Man is undoubtedly more well-known than Samus, with one weakness: he isn't in a Smash game. put Mega in a Smash game and Clinkeroth would be the limit. he has every advantage that Samus has - great character design, classic roots - but just lacks that appearance in Smash. he clearly has some overlap with the Nintendo guys. despite being clearly weaker than Samus, can he take advantage of her mostly apathetic fanbase? god only knows. chances are that the answer is no, though. that's a lot of ground to make up, especially when Mega Man seems to be fading into obscurity, having gone without a notable release for a good decade or so now. Mega Man seems fairly similar to Sonic, and Samus obliterated Sonic in 2004. there's only two reasons that I think Mega Man might win here: Yoshi and that picture. Yoshi's clearly closer to Samus than he (it?) is to Mega Man, and Yoshi has one hell of a devoted fanbase for some unknown reason. I wouldn't even be that surprised if Yoshi placed, just in case one of the two big guns "SFFed" the other. it's tough to pick anything but Samus and Mega Man, though, and it's tough to pick Mega Man over Samus when Samus just got the biggest Wii game of the year thus far and is one of the most hyped characters for Brawl. Mega Man has... uh, I think he got a DS game or three this year, but not many people cared. honestly, announcing him for Brawl would mean more than anything over the last five years combined. that's how dormant that series is to a lot of people. then there's that picture. Samus definitely got the worst of it. (and Scorpion got the best, though Mega Man isn't far behind) I don't think it's life-threatening though because you can still tell it's Samus. she still has her big bad suit on. if people know the name and see the suit, they should be fine, even if the picture isn't all that appealing. Yoshi and Scorpion do look pretty good to take a good chunk of the votes, though. both Samus and Mega Man have good reasons to win this match, but I'm sticking with the character that has clearly been more impressive over the years. Prime 3: Corruption. Mega Man: Star Force Dragon? Samus wins this match transience's prediction: Samus with 32.43%, Mega Man with 29.32%, Yoshi with 21.69%, Scorpion with 16.56% Guest’s Analysis - Kleenex Round 3! Man, this contest is going fast. And this round it's...sprite round? Oh dear. Well, "first appearance" round, if you want to get technical. Either way, this should be interesting, especially considering some of the entrants that are remaining. But let's worry about today's match. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/20/2007 9:27:54 PM | message detail | #185 |
| Mega Man and Samus have both been pretty
impressive the past two rounds, and they're obviously the clear-cut
favorites to advance here. Yoshi also did a good job at resisting Mega
Man SFF to advance, and Scorpion just did his thing. Normally, this
match would be pretty easy to pin a result to - Samus over Mega Man,
end of story. But then you've got your pictures. Yoshi and Scorpion
have plenty recognizable pics, but that's not the point here. A lot of
people seem to be clamoring for a Samus underpreformance due to her
Metroid sprite - especially because Mega Man's is a lot more
recognizable. But is it enough to put Mega Man over Samus? I mean,
Yoshi's going to SFF or LFF or WTF Samus, isn't he? Eh, nah. Pics
aren't going to make a huge difference here. Samus might do a percent
lower than normal, but it's not going to allow Mega Man to catch up.
The match should go as expected. Only thing exciting here is who takes
3rd between Yoshi and Scorpion. This analysis was pretty boring, yeah, but I'm expcting it to be a pretty boring match, so NYAH. Samus (30.56%) > Mega Man (27.89%) > Yoshi (20.96%) > Scorpion (20.59%) Crew Consensus: Pretty one-sided, as Samus > Mega Man is the overwhelming favorite. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/20/2007 9:33:35 PM | message detail | #186 |
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Kay Aitch's Analysis The first Noble Nine matchup of this contest. These are usually fun... Mega Man Mega Man hasn't looked half too shabby this year, though how much is left to the format is debatable. The cut-and-dry locks for first end here though, as he is placed into contention with the winner of last year's contest - and looks to prove or disprove a theory I propagated not so long ago... Yoshi The character of L-Block, but without the funny factor. ...okay, I don't like Yoshi. What? Held up pretty well last round all things considered, now gets even MORE Nintendo thrown into the mix for him to presumably resist. Will he draw disproportionately from either Samus or Mega Man? Could he cost Samus the match...? Samus Aran The winner of last year's contest has looked solid as ever so far, but that hasn't stopped the doubters! Oh, namely seeing how she's stuck with a piss-poor original Metroid sprite, um... if she's as pic-sensitive as Snake (ZSS), she might be in trouble nonetheless... Scorpion One of these things is not like the others, and Scorpion relishes in it with a FATALITY. Just think, if he were like twice as strong or something he wouldn't be dead in the water !! There's been some upset rumblings over this particular match, and it's not totally unwarranted. As easily as Samus beat Snake for the title last year, she was easily the least impressive contest winner in history thanks to letting Tifa become the closest contender for destroying the Noble Nine. When you let someone who didn't even make the contest this year lead you for half the day, it hints that your fanbase might be fickle... On top of that, Samus' presence among the Nintendo fanbase has always been questionable. Even now, the idea persists that she is indirectly stronger than Mario despite being annihilated in a 60-40 beatdown, and most of her intra-Nintendo matches remain relatively unimpressive. Though she looked pretty good at making Midna look insignificant, but then again that might have just been Midna sucking. In any case, Samus has looked damn good this year, and has Metroid Prime 3: Corruption on top of all that. ...but Corruption's presence here has about the epitome of unimpressive, shameful as that is. Despite the Wii dominating this site to high heaven, MP3 struggled to remain in the top ten even at its peak, and now rests at the fringe of the top twenty. Not that it should hurt Samus, but it hasn't spread in the way to make her even more of a lock than people wanted. And now hope has slid in the upset crowd with the sprite round, as Samus is stuck with something so fugly that it's bringing up comparison to Solid Snake. Not what prospective winners want to hear. Has Samus been hurt by sprites before? Well, her past sprite round matches have ranged from unimpressive to decent: Squall in 2k3, Sora in 2k4, Mario in 2k5, Rikku in 2k6 (and Metroid v Pokemon in Series if you want to count it). This particular sprite was the one that she got against Squall, and she didn't do half bad with it... but then again, Squall didn't have a particularly great one either, while the iconic draw of all of Samus' competitors here cannot be denied. If I didn't create Mega Man > Samus, I certainly popularized it. I firmly believed that the core fanbases of those two characters disproportionately preferred Mega Man, which would give him the win even though Samus was indirectly stronger. I still believe that could happen, despite my also-just-as-firm belief that Mega Man has lost a step and isn't equal to Sonic (which is obviously true now, but you get the idea). |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/20/2007 9:33:51 PM | message detail | #187 |
| But I don't see him taking this one. This format
has illustrated that SFF plays a big role, but rarely is the split as
huge as one-on-one encounters would suggest (the biggest extent would
be, what, Link/Zelda?). I don't expect Yoshi's core fanbase to slip up
at all here, even though he's been on the bad end of some of the worst
SFF beatings we've seen. The unpredictability of the format is always
there, but without the dynamic of head-to-head, voters have many more
choices and the core fanbase tends to not split as drastically, I feel.
And so indirect strength becomes a lot more important in this scenario
- and no one out there is arguing for MM > Samus on that level. Mega Man beating Samus here would be AMAZING and perhaps even rekindle my faith in him overall. But I just don't see it happening. Karma Hunter's Vote: Super Fighting Robot... Mega Man Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Samus Aran with 36%, Mega Man with 31%, Yoshi with 18%, Scorpion with 15% Too much faith in Yoshi, or too little? Too little faith in Scorpion? WHO CARES IT'S MM/SAMUS LET'S WATCH THE GAME Upset Probability: 30% Yoshi is a definite X-Factor here, and if Mega Man isn't as Nintendo as many have postulated (which his last match could seemingly imply), Yoshi could definitely bring Samus down on a very big level. Or, y'know, the format. Nothing is assured, though the results should be fun to look at any way. |
| Lopen | Posted 10/20/2007 9:59:10 PM | message detail | #188 |
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Wow, I'm the only one to take Mega Man here? Easier points for me I guess...! And man, I feel your pain, Turtle. I was pulling for you to get Zero's match this round, really, I was. I mean, the less people in competition for the point the better... I kid! --- "GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude |
| GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/21/2007 8:35:50 AM | message detail | #189 |
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Lopen more like lolpen --- Oracle Prediction: ~ SMAUS ARNA 34.05% - Blue Bomber 30.28% - Boshi 19.05% - Skorupi 16.62% ~ Status: Great |
| Ed Bellis | Posted 10/21/2007 8:53:37 AM | message detail | #190 |
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Woah, go accuracy point! AWWW YEAH CRUNKALYSIS --- This was KING BELLIS LOL "OoT doesn't have "the magic" because it has no Tingle." - onethousandfingers |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/21/2007 9:22:11 AM | message detail | #191 |
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Duke Nukem....................13.3% 16961 Gordon Freeman..........18.84% 24034 Sonic the Hedgehog....44.39% 56616 Sub-Zero.........................23.47% 29931 TOTAL VOTES............................127542 35.36% of the brackets predicted 1st correctly. 20.02% of the brackets predicted 2nd correctly. 39.80% of the brackets predicted 1st to come in 2nd. 4.71% of the brackets predicted 2nd to come in 1st. Crew Predictions: Fully Correct - 31; Half Correct - 15; Barely Correct - 2 BRAWLFEAR legit? Sonic does much better in Round 2 while Sub collapses. Both still advance over the competition. Crew Prediction Challenge - KH gets the point. Guest (Turtle "2", Kleenex, Who Cares?, Sensi, Luis, XII, l3fty, Gadds, Bob) - 10 Lopen - 8 HM - 7 Yoblazer - 6 KH - 5 Tran - 4 Moltar - 3 Ulti - 2 Crew Accuracy Challenge - KH gets points for Sonic and Sub-Zero, Lopen gets the point for Gordon and Duke. Yoblazer - 37 Guest (Bokonon_Lives "2", Dp, Turtle "5", Ashe "2", Kleenex "3", Who Cares? "3", chocobo, Richard, Xcarvenger "2", Sensi, Darunia, satai "3", Bio "2", Luis "2", XIII "2", l3fty, Gadds, Bob, Ed) - 35 HM - 33 Lopen - 28 Moltar - 22 Ulti - 21 Tran - 21 KH - 20 --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Mega Man/Yoshi/Samus/Scorrpion - Bracket: Samus > Mega Man - Vote: Yoshi (215/256) |
| Lopen | Posted 10/21/2007 3:54:39 PM | message detail | #192 |
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Moltar. Up Cloud 3% and reduce Auron and Ryu 1% in my prediction today. ... yes I added wrong. Shut up! --- "GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/21/2007 7:27:32 PM | message detail | #193 |
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Division 2: Round 3 - Match 50 – Cloud Strife vs. Marcus Fenix vs. Auron vs. Ryu Moltar’s Analysis Cloud Round 1 – 61.24% vs. Ocelot, Jill and Zolom Round 2 – 56.10% vs. Marcus, Ocelot and Kefka More Cloud domination like always and forever. Marcus Round 1 – 36.79% vs. Kefka, Tom Nook and Zelos Round 2 – 15.59% vs. Cloud, Ocelot and Kefka Fenix overcomes the odds and beats out Ocelot for second. Auron Round 1 – 43.26% vs. Shadow, Pyramid Head, Chris Round 2 – 35.83% vs. Ryu, Bowser and Shadow Daaaaaaaaaayum Auron. Ryu Round 1 – 36.30% vs. Bowser, Mewtwo and Toad Round 2 – 26.16% vs. Auron, Bowser and Shadow So….that 59-41 loss never happened, right? Another group for Cloud to lay the smackdown on. So far, his competition has been chump after chump. Now he’s going Auron and Ryu here, so his 50% days are over. Still, Cloud shouldn’t really disappoint unless he dips under 40%. Marcus Fenix, the dark horse of Division 2. Kefka, Ocelot, Jill (indirectly), all fell to their ends thanks to the Gears star. Still, he’s pretty lucky. He isn’t much stronger than Kefka, and only got by Ocelot thanks to Cloud being in the poll. His luck-streak abruptly ends here though, and he’ll be lucky to hit 15% again with these powerhouses. The real debate in this match springs from Auron and Ryu. Both have impressed so far. Auron has put up scary numbers in both rounds against decent competition. Meanwhile, Ryu beat out the favorite Bowser twice to make it to Round 3. Now, if this weren’t a special case, I’d say Auron > Ryu and call it a day. However, this is a special case! Auron’s got some company in the poll that goes by the name of Cloud. We’ve seen Cloud/Auron before, and while Auron didn’t get SFFed that hard, every little bit will hurt in a situation like this. I’m guessing Auron’s hot run ends here thanks to Cloud. Ryu hasn’t looked bad at all, and if he is able to hold up here, he can say hello to Round 4. However, Auron can’t be counted out at all. Even if he does get SFFed, Auron can still make it through with the way he’s been looking so far. I’m predicting he doesn’t though, and it wouldn’t be the first time a strong performer has crumbled thanks to stronger competition being around. bubububut MATCH PIC be damned Moltar’s Bracket Says: Cloud > Ryu Moltar’s Prediction is: Cloud: 45% - Ryu: 23% - Auron: 22% - Marcus: 10% Ultimaterializer’s Analysis Marcus Fenix is like Scorpion from last match; nice run, but it's over now that the big guns are here. Cloud vs Auron vs Ryu is an interesting scenario, because of this poll from the 2003 contest: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1341 Or for a more recent example: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1771 If this repeats itself, Ryu might advance *really* easily. All he does is break 40% on Noble Nine members. I actually think Ryu will advance here, because we've seen FF7 murder a wide range of things SFF-wise. Auron has grown stronger since 2003, but I don't know if he's strong enough to avoid the SFF hammer. Ulti's Prediction: Cloud [46.00%] Ryu [24.00%] Auron [22.00%] Fenix [8.00%] Heroic Mario’s Analysis For the past couple of rounds, Cloud has been the most impressive, or at least one of the most impressive, noble niners. He’s gone up against some decent competition twice now, and this is a great chance to see if he’s got the stuff necessary to give Link a real fight in the finals. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/21/2007 7:27:59 PM | message detail | #194 |
| I have no idea what the expectations are for
people in this match, but I think if Cloud can get over 50%+, he stands
a legitimate shot at taking out Link, regardless of who is in the
finals with them. Considering he’s up against another very strong
Square character here – and he won’t be come finals – and a character
with a very dedicated fighting fanbase, going above 50%+ would be
pretty ridiculous. That, to me, would say that he’s certainly looking
to have reached Link-esque levels. Cloud aside, the fight for second here should be pretty good, if only because Auron is going to lose a chunk of his voters to Cloud. Given that he absolutely smashed Ryu last round, nearly beating him by 10%, I think he has enough room to get SFFed and cleanly come out ahead. If we’re talking about dedicated fanbases, Auron’s is probably top of the line, which makes me think he isn’t going to get hit with SFF that hard, at least nowhere near enough for Ryu to be all that competitive. Still, it’s hard to deny that SFF – LFF – has been a key factor in causing the stronger character to lose. If Cloud hits Auron harder than expected, Ryu’s probably not going to have a whole lot of trouble taking second, despite being much weaker. Fighting game characters have proven to be the real deal in this format, although the competition they were faced against has been pretty questionable. Looking at it, the fighting crew in the past few matches has been pretty disappointing. Ryu could keep that going here. But yeah, I expect Cloud to dominate this match, start to get people to seriously talking about the Cloud upset, and then Auron to handily take second place. The only downside to this whole thing is that I had Cloud > Auron in my bracket for the longest time, but ended up switching it! Cloud – 51% Auron – 22% Ryu – 17% Marcus Fenix – 10% Bracket: Cloud > Bowser Vote: Cloud Yoblazer’s Analysis In my humble opinion, this is the first of two relatively uninteresting matches we have to sit through before we get to the two gems of the round. While it might turn out pretty good in and of itself, this is a match with very little future bracket implications, and nearly all the points that could have been lost already are, seeing as how Bowser (grand ****-up that he is) got his fat ass booted last round. Huh... why do the next 48 hours seem so painfully long? Anyway, let's get on with it. Doing battle today are contest behemoth and second placer 4life, Cloud Strife, FFX strongman and site-wide badass, Auron, fighting game strongman and site-wide badass to a slightly lesser degree, Ryu, and holy-Jesus-are-you-ever-going-to-look-pathetic guy, Marcus Fenix.It goes without saying that Cloud is 100% guaranteed to earn an easy first place victory here. In addition to that, I have this funny feeling that he's going to impress us (and look like a somewhat legitimate threat to Link) for the third time in a row. In fact, I have this feeling that he'll continually impress until the final match, picking up more and more people on the ill-fated Cloud > Link express, only for Link to waste him in the contest's final day. Again. God, that's gonna be sweet. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/21/2007 7:28:47 PM | message detail | #195 |
| Cloud domination aside, the real point of interest
is the battle between Auron and Ryu for second place, and whether or
not Cloud can hurt Auron enough for Ryu to make up the quite large gap
that we all know exists between them. Personally, it's very difficult
for me to even picture it. Yes, Cloud is here and he'll bring the hurt.
Yes, Auron will be undervalued by virtue of SFF. No, I don't think it
will be enough to negate the nearly 10% edge
Auron had on Ryu in Round 2. Simply put, Auron has looked tremendous
this year. He's unquestionably the most popular Final Fantasy character
of this millennium, and it has shown during this contest. Hell, he
nearly matched Crono's percentage against much more hardened
competition. Let's see... Zero/Raiden/HK-47 or Ryu/Bowser/Shadow. Real
head scratcher, that one. >_> Ryu may have the SFF advantage, but it's all for naught this year. Compared to what we saw in 2004, I think Auron will do a better job resisting Cloud's rage. That, coupled with a pretty significant picture advantage (Auron stands out not as a sore thumb, but as a beacon of badass), and he becomes the awesome underdog who moves on to the Sweet 16 despite SFF from the #2 force on GameFAQs. Oh, and Marcus Fenix, prepare to meet your humiliating doom. Marcus is facing Cloud for the second time, and as if last round wasn't bad enough, he's now cursed with a worse picture and is completely out-badassed by both his other competitors. He's going to look like garbage. THIS IS WHAT YOU GET FOR BEATING OUT OCELOT, YOU BASTARD. Cloud Strife - 46% Auron - 23% Ryu - 21% Marcus Fenix - 10% Lopen’s Analysis Auron: Hey Cloud can I borrow an airplane wing? Cloud: Sure, let's mos-- Ryu: Shoryuken! *uppercuts Auron in the back of the head* Ken: Dude that totally isn't how the bit goes... *facepalms* Marcus Fenix: Why does Ken get a line before I do? I'm in the match too, damn it! Sure you are, Marcus... sure you are. Anyway... Mr. Classic Look™ is making a living out of being an opportunist in this contest. In round 1 he fights a Bowser with Toad and Mewtwo holding his arms, and now in round 3 he's gonna go Shoryuken Auron while he's in the middle of an engaging conversation with Cloud. Will it work, though? I've got Ryu in my bracket... I came in thinking he could capitalize on his fighting spirit which prevents him from getting blown out, and of course the Cloud/Auron SFF here. But... now I'm not as confident as I'd like to be. Auron did put a sizable little beating on Ryu last round... a bit bigger one than I expected. And now we've got this totally horrible match pic to boost. Not only does Ryu look like crap (man, damn SF1 for existing... screws Ryu out of his sprite potential way too often) but Auron just looks awesome. That may be the best Auron match pic ever. But... I still can't deny the fighting spirit I picked Ryu to win because of. How low can he really be pushed in this match? He seems the type of character to look better as his opponents get stronger, having a loyal fanbase. Not to the extent of Master Chief or Gordon Freeman, but moreso than Auron. Especially here with Cloud being the driving force of weakening. And we've also seen that Bowser does some weird stuff to Ryu... I'm thinking Ryu gains a lot from Bowser being gone from the poll. Much more than Auron. Oh, and I guess there's the recent SF4 announcement to refresh him in the minds of the people, for whatever that's worth... probably not much, but it might help a little bit. I'd feel a lot better if the pic was less imbalanced, but Ryu should have this. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/21/2007 7:29:14 PM | message detail | #196 |
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Man what is this... two days in a row with an analysis that doesn't
involve me talking about or how the phase of the moon will influence
voting or some other nonsense? Lopen's prediction: Cloud - 40.77% Ryu - 26.59% Auron - 25.46% Lolol Fenix Down won't save you from this beating - 8.18% Karma Hunter’s Analysis Looks like we're shaping up to have an interesting stretch of matches. Saddle up! Cloud Strife Cloud continues to look... impressive? Uh um... it won't last, it ends here, stop hyping it Marcus Fenix Pulls out a relatively close win against Ocelot in a match that basically foretells his doom here. Good job, fanbase independence and all that... now let's see how he holds up against real competition. Auron Dominates as much as one could have hoped for in this format, after a near 10% victory margin last round Auron now meets Cloud again on the field of battle to see exactly how much SFF he can resist - and if his natural advantage over Ryu can hold out. Ryu Carrying the flag for the overachieving fighting fanbase in this contest, Ryu is primed to go one further again with an upset, and he looks pretty darn good for doing it. So, let's break it down. Fenix is out. He had good comebacks over Kefka and Ocelot, but these are the big leagues now. Barring literal insanity with the format, he should come in last and will be scraping for every last Xbox loyalist vote he can get. Cloud comes in first. Auron will be sapping him of course, and he's got VERY strong relative competition. Again, barring literal insanity, he shouldn't break 50% here (and if he did, it'll be akin to the time he faced SNOIC), and 45% is probably his limit. Not that I won't predict him there !! The true match, of course, is between Auron and Ryu. Auron is clearly stronger, but he has a LOT of SFF to deal with. On the other hand of course, Ryu is a LOT weaker than Auron going by the format. It's very debated, and throwing another monkey wrench into the whole fiasco is a picture advantage on Auron's part - perhaps the first new-gen character to get an advantage in the heralded 'sprite round', he's going SSJ FMV-style on the match while everyone else is stuck with meh polygons or their oldest and least recognizable sprite. It gets worse when you realize that Ryu got that same sprite against SNAKE in the sprite round, and holds the dubious honor of being the one competitor not to overperform on him there (seemingly). However... like with last match, I don't think the picture matters enough, big as the disparity is. SFF has weakened fanbases HARD in this contest, and Cloud covers all the bases for obliterating Auron, from FF to KH. Auron could work some magic here and hold up well, but I'm gonna side with Ryu, the recent warts of Sub-Zero/Scorpion and all. Karma Hunter's Vote: Auron wait wait WHY DO I DO THIS TO MYSELF Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Cloud Strife with 45%, Ryu with 23%, Auron with 22%, Marcus Fenix with 10% ohhhhh boyyyyyy Upset Probability: 45% Of course, that picture could simply dominate for Auron or KH2 could have given him the independence he needs to hold up strong. Maybe he just holds up well in this format even with sapping. This could really go either way. Transience’s Analysis I'm not sure what to say about this match. Ryu's been impressing this whole contest and we get to see him go at it again. like Pikachu, he's had a fairly lucky bracket -- he gets Bowser nerfed by three guys (though it turns out he didn't need it), and now he gets a nerfed Auron. how much is Cloud going to nerf Auron? that's the big question for this match. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/21/2007 7:30:13 PM | message detail | #197 |
| in 2003, Cloud beat Auron 72/28.. in comparison,
he beat Bowser 70/30, so he didn't SFF him *that* badly. Auron is four
years and a generation away from Cloud, though he now shares the
Kingdom Hearts games with Cloud. meanwhile, Kefka did fairly admirably
against Cloud last round, doing equally as well against Marcus despite
Cloud being in the poll. Auron definitely has a core audience like
Kefka does -- will it be enough? I think this match will be close, though not very interesting. Ryu's core guys should keep him at about 20%, and Auron's probably around there too. Marcus probably gets killed here -- not only is he up against real competition, but that picture does him no favours whatsoever. he might be independent, but he won't come close to two big guns in the poll. this isn't Kefka or Ocelot he's dealing with here. Cloud hurts Auron. can he get enough votes to beat Ryu? I think yes. transience's prediction: Cloud with 45.27%, Auron with 22.55%, Ryu with 22.07%, Marcus Fenix with 10.11% Guest’s Analysis - Biolizard This match was much easier in my head. Cloud dominates and ruins Auron in the process while Bowser destroys Ocelot. But thanks to the Can-Do attitudes of Ryu and Marcus, this match has become a crapshoot. I don't know about the rest of the crew, but this'll be a tough call. Cloud Stealing KH's format aww yeah. Cloud should have absolutely no trouble breaking 50%. That's literally ALL that matters. Marcus I hate watch Marcus work. He makes THE most boring comebacks of all time. But still, he's proven he can someday make for a good contestant, but right now, he's just Master Chief Jr., and that itself is a stretch. Auron With Cloud in the poll, we're sure to see Auron struggle for a good while. We've seen how he's performed under the pressures of SFF in the face of Cloud. Not to pretty. But I'm pretty sure that since KHII came out, Auron and Cloud have never met on the field before. Auron may be a tad stronger since then, and that may be all he needs. Ryu Ryu's made a decent splash in the contest so far. While Ryu >Bowser was pretty much expected, very few thought his strength would transfer into round 2. Call Shadow SFF all you want, but the fact of the matter is Ryu out right beat Bowser in a match many thought he would lose. That's good enough for me. We've already dissected the fact Cloud is moving on, but who's he taking with him. Most people immediately count Auron out thanks to SFFEAR, but Auron does pretty well, even under pressure. Compared to most other characters, at least. In my opinion, Marcus is the most likely candidate for fourth. His slow and steady comebacks simply aren't enough against opponents like this. He can probably squeak into third, but that's as far as he goes. Then we have Ryu. Like I said before, he's established that he's a lot stronger than most people were giving him credit for. Granted, it may just be all luck, and the SFF is, actually, to blame. But I'm not ready to count him out yet. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/21/2007 7:30:51 PM | message detail | #198 |
| See what I mean? You can't read these three. Auron
hasn't had a match with Cloud since, what, 2003? Ryu has supposedly
been riding on the SFF mobile. And to top it off, Marcus only managed
to squeak by two weak opponents, but is hailed as Master Chief Jr.
(Again, a stretch) Who am I giving the win to? I'm tempted to say Auron, but I doubt KHII made that much of a difference. So Ryu once again rides the SFF mobile to victory. Now for some haiku Cloud and Ryu ride on, yo Don't hate me, tranny Bio's Bracket Says: Cloud > Bowser. Stupid Koopa. Bio's Prediction: Cloud - 51% Marcus - 14% Ryu- 19% Auron - 16% Bio's Vote: HADOUKEN Crew Consensus: 5 have Cloud > Ryu, 3 have Cloud > Auron |
| DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/21/2007 9:41:27 PM | message detail | #199 |
|
Marcus 14%? Damn you guest. --- SC2k7: 88/128, tied for 1364th Today's Pick: Mega Man > Knux (whoops) |
| Tatl | Posted 10/22/2007 1:01:39 AM | message detail | #200 |
|
This should be Bowser's match... *Sulks in his corner.* --- The Perfect Midna moveset: http://smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=3008652#post3008652 |
